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Property expert says prices may collapse by up to 50 per cent in the next year or two
05:55 AM Sep 17, 2010
by Ephraim Seow Siew Lee
The dizzying rise in property prices here is not sustainable and the market may be heading for a hard landing in one to two years' time.
When that happens, property values may fall by as much as 50 per cent, according to an expert at a real estate forum yesterday.
Property experts speaking at the National University of Singapore's Institute of Real Estate Studies Forum said that excess liquidity in the market is the main factor that has been driving up property prices recently.
This liquidity may originate from prudent savings during the financial crisis, gains from the stock market run-up last year and foreign funds flowing here in search of better returns in Asian and emerging markets.
Mr Beat Lenherr, global chief strategist of LGT Capital Management, said: "I think that the money is finding a way around specific pointed measures and the money is just going to all the segments, micro-markets or micro-sectors."
Mr Lenherr also reckoned that the recent rally is not well supported and has been too fast, paving for a harder fall.
"If you look at the developments over the last four years, you clearly see elements of exaggerations where it doesn't make sense to buy in terms of rental yields or expected capital gains," Mr Lenherr added.
As such, he said property prices may "collapse by 30, 40 or 50 per cent" in the next one to two years.
Other speakers at the forum also said that the Singapore Government is still holding back on several other drastic measures such as the capital gains tax, which could dampen the property market abruptly if introduced.
They said the Government has so far been successful in building good neighbourhoods and community in its housing policies beyond controlling prices.
"I think the local market has been kept quite steady. I think the Government can indeed take pride in being able to making available affordable housing to more than 70 or 85 per cent of the masses," said Professor Bernard Yeung, Dean of NUS Business School. Ephraim Seow
URL http://www.todayonline.com/Hotnews/EDC100917-0000074/Property-expert-says-prices-may-collapse-by-up-to-50-per-cent-in-the-next-year-or-two
Copyright 2010 MediaCorp Pte Ltd | All Rights Reserved
Get your cash ready
haha...really? I can start saving now :p
Anyone attending Mr Lenherr's talk on Thursday?
Regulators
17-09-10, 11:30
50% quite unlikely. imagine buying a condo for $800k and later dropping to $400k (cheaper than current 4rm HDB), how is it possible? If a 4rm HDB bought at $400k drops to $200k levels which is cheaper than current prices of a 3rm flat, how is that also possible? I think those figures were simply plucked out of thin air :doh:
There is a reserve price for the land the government sells. Because land is such a precious resource in Singapore now, the government is selling them at higher prices and limited them to 99 LH. Coupled with guaranteed increase in population due to immigrations, this forms a hard to break price floor for the properties. Unless interest rates increase to > 3%.
Anyway the keyword he used is "may" and not "will". :rolleyes:
angmor talk means credible? wat a joke lol
End of the day, he just wants us to give him our $$$ to manage la. :doh:
angmor talk means credible? wat a joke lol
50% quite unlikely. imagine buying a condo for $800k and later dropping to $400k (cheaper than current 4rm HDB), how is it possible? If a 4rm HDB bought at $400k drops to $200k levels which is cheaper than current prices of a 3rm flat, how is that also possible? I think those figures were simply plucked out of thin air :doh:
yes 50% is very very unlikely
10% - very likely - GDP 10% growth - unemployment low
20% - likely - GDP 5% growth - unemployment mid
30% - unlikely - GDP 0% growth - unemployment high
40% - very unlikely - GDP -5% growth - unemployment severe
50% - very very unlikely - GDP - 10% growth - unemployment hell
Condo may not be likely but 20 million sentosa cove projects maybe.. 10 million is still a huge sum.
20-30% good enuff.. :p
Start saving!
Wait for durian season!
It will come.
proud owner
17-09-10, 12:24
50% quite unlikely. imagine buying a condo for $800k and later dropping to $400k (cheaper than current 4rm HDB), how is it possible? If a 4rm HDB bought at $400k drops to $200k levels which is cheaper than current prices of a 3rm flat, how is that also possible? I think those figures were simply plucked out of thin air :doh:
i remember my friends maisonette in AMK peaked at 680k, then fell to 400k
either during 94 or 97 crisis
so 30 is possible But not likely
melville park peak 96-97 700k for 2beddder.
Last lows at 420k.
anythng is possible,just wait. if u do not need a roof
Not likely it will drop 30 or even 20%.. due to good rental yield for the next 1-2yr.
Rental yield will support the property market price from falling too much even it happen.
Not likely it will drop 30 or even 20%.. due to good rental yield for the next 1-2yr.
Rental yield will support the property market price from falling too much even it happen.
wad about the good rental yield in 2007. Finally in 2008 plunge..
gd rental yield cant stop it from coming down.
Tenants can just pay the penalty and go for cheaper rental..
proud owner
17-09-10, 12:48
Not likely it will drop 30 or even 20%.. due to good rental yield for the next 1-2yr.
Rental yield will support the property market price from falling too much even it happen.
i still see alot of rental in D9/10 going cheap ...
why do u say rental is good ? for next 1-2 yr ?
can to share your insider info ? if any pls
End of the day, he just wants us to give him our $$$ to manage la. :doh:
I really tried hard. But I can't disagree with you!
Too bad the great strategy failed on me...
i still see alot of rental in D9/10 going cheap ...
why do u say rental is good ? for next 1-2 yr ?
can to share your insider info ? if any pls
Obviosuly he is not an insider. I think he is still in dreamland. * Wake up * Wake up * Inception no more.
Rental rates has fallen and demand has dropped.
Corporate information that I cannot reveal the source.
melville park peak 96-97 700k for 2beddder.
Last lows at 420k.
anythng is possible,just wait. if u do not need a roof
Factually yes.
Technically no.
Why?
5% drop, peanuts.
10% drop, people wait somemore
20% drop, people wait no more. Most would rush in. Rush Rush Rush Buy Buy Buy.
thus 25% to 30% very difficult to hit, unless we are in another recession. Then the 25% "support" might be breeched. If so, good luck to every property owners.
Do watch the macro and micro indicators.
I find the report to be quite accurate such as gains from stock market and foreign funds flowing into Asia which result in an inflated property market (Singapore's case). However, I don't agree that prices will be correcting by as much as 50%, which is not going to be the case even in extreme conditions.
Currently, the excess liquidity condition is still supporting property price so govt measures only make a dent. However, if that liquidity is taken away, coupled with increase interest rates which further restricts the amount of $$$ an individual can borrow, price will plunge. Forget the luxury segment, which won't do well in the mist of a low cash environment; it only benefits in a flush market; it goes beyond the limits in a flush market but retreats beyond the limits during a lull; you can associate it as the extreme ends of the market.
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showpost.php?p=101926&postcount=2435
With regards to my two-month old post above, it would be surprising if we don't see a 20% plunge in property price. Note that my post was before the govt measures but I already took that into consideration.
Price movement estimates:
-40% to -50% is impossible
-31% to -40% is likely
-21% to -30% is very likely
-11% to -20% is very likely
-0% to -10% is likely
1% to 10% is impossible
@Rysk - In SG context, property market is not supported by rental yield but the opposite is true. What jwong71 and proud_owner said are true. D10/D11 yield may be low but if price hold up, it will increase in the long term (12mths or longer due to the nature of such contracts). The opposite if price falls.
I guess it depends on price and location. If one bought 1400psf in OCR potential for dropping is much higher than if you were to buy it at, say 500psf.
So 30- 50% drop is not across the board but for those who paid unrealistic prices...
The likely scenario is price remain stable for a while before rising again. Despite govt warning n cooling measures since Sep 2009 the buyers keep on flocking in. Do you think all are stupid.
Almost all the buyers can afford to service their loans if any for the next 10 years. So even if prices drop by 50% they are not scare and can hold. Most are buying with their eyes open :spliff: The surplus cash "given" by the govt thru job credits are better put into property, stocks, bonds etc than keeping them in saving deposits.
How will price drop when there are Very very few sellers willing to lower their price much from current level?:beats-me-man: .Developers too will only lower their price as a last resort when they need cash urgently. Most of them have no problem obtaining cheap loans n public cash thru bonds issue that they can keep or postpone selling their vacant units till someone buy at the price they want. :simmering:
So don't think there will be any significant corrections unless mortgage /housing loan rates move up drastically.:scared-3:
I find the report to be quite accurate such as gains from stock market and foreign funds flowing into Asia which result in an inflated property market (Singapore's case). However, I don't agree that prices will be correcting by as much as 50%, which is not going to be the case even in extreme conditions.
Currently, the excess liquidity condition is still supporting property price so govt measures only make a dent. However, if that liquidity is taken away, coupled with increase interest rates which further restricts the amount of $$$ an individual can borrow, price will plunge. Forget the luxury segment, which won't do well in the mist of a low cash environment; it only benefits in a flush market; it goes beyond the limits in a flush market but retreats beyond the limits during a lull; you can associate it as the extreme ends of the market.
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showpost.php?p=101926&postcount=2435
With regards to my two-month old post above, it would be surprising if we don't see a 20% plunge in property price. Note that my post was before the govt measures but I already took that into consideration.
Price movement estimates:
-40% to -50% is impossible
-31% to -40% is likely
-21% to -30% is very likely
-11% to -20% is very likely
-0% to -10% is likely
1% to 10% is impossible
@Rysk - In SG context, property market is not supported by rental yield but the opposite is true. What jwong71 and proud_owner said are true. D10/D11 yield may be low but if price hold up, it will increase in the long term (12mths or longer due to the nature of such contracts). The opposite if price falls.
So you are the smarter ones to offload earlier. Anyway wise and good. PMET is a professional.
The likely scenario is price remain stable for a while before rising again. Despite govt warning n cooling measures since Sep 2009 the buyers keep on flocking in. Do you think all are stupid. Almost all the buyers can afford to service their loans if any for the next 10 years. So even if prices drop by 50% they can hold. They are buying with their eyes open. :spliff: They have so much surplus cash that it is better to put in property, stocks than keeping them in saving deposits.
How will price drop when there are Very very few sellers willing to lower their price much from current level?:beats-me-man: .Developers too will only lower their price as a last resort when they need cash urgently. Most of them have no problem obtaining cheap loans n public cash thru bonds issue that they can keep or postpone selling their vacant units till someone buy at the price they want. :simmering:
So don't think there will be any significant corrections unless mortgage /housing loan rates move up drastically.:scared-3:
Correct, that is coming soon (my prediction) 3 - 6 mths.
Now IR built already, another IR is on the way. I.e. increase in I/R (Interest Rates) will start to hurt those who are not cash rich.
Wow! That Capital Management guy may have a hidden agenda? What will happen to stocks if property down 30-50%?
Correct, that is coming soon (my prediction) 3 - 6 mths.
Now IR built already, another IR is on the way. I.e. increase in I/R (Interest Rates) will start to hurt those who are not cash rich.
Actually there are alot of cash rich people around still waiting. If price drop by 5-10% many of them will chiong to buy liaoz, bringing up the price again, just like what happened last year.
Last year, recession, everybody waiting for low price which never came because many cash rich people spoil market, price drop a little only all chiong and buy.
:2cents:
proud owner
17-09-10, 21:48
The likely scenario is price remain stable for a while before rising again. Despite govt warning n cooling measures since Sep 2009 the buyers keep on flocking in. Do you think all are stupid.
Almost all the buyers can afford to service their loans if any for the next 10 years. So even if prices drop by 50% they are not scare and can hold. Most are buying with their eyes open :spliff: The surplus cash "given" by the govt thru job credits are better put into property, stocks, bonds etc than keeping them in saving deposits.
How will price drop when there are Very very few sellers willing to lower their price much from current level?:beats-me-man: .Developers too will only lower their price as a last resort when they need cash urgently. Most of them have no problem obtaining cheap loans n public cash thru bonds issue that they can keep or postpone selling their vacant units till someone buy at the price they want. :simmering:
So don't think there will be any significant corrections unless mortgage /housing loan rates move up drastically.:scared-3:
Just a thought on the highted portion
it has been going on for past 4 yrs or more ..
that LIQUIDITY is good , bank saving rates sucks ..buy properties give better return
this has been true ..
BUT .. when this feeds into the lowest level of population .. we can assume 70 pct of sporean have bought properties ..
on the part of the banks , imagine 70 pct taking home loans, say 50pct financing, AND at the same time, withdrawing FD, or savings ..
there will come a point where their loan portfolios grow so much, they dont have enuff savings deposits to 'match fund' the loans ..
what happens then ?
1. raise savings rates, to attract deposits
2. raise mortgage rates, to slow down book sizing blowing up further
3. issue bond? maybe
these point to HIGHER rates ..
some will argue that foreign funds are still pouring in .. funds have a certain returns that they 'promised' their investors ..once they achieved that return, they will move out and move on to something /somewhere else ..
to me .. 4-5 yrs is about time for foreign funds to take profit, liquidate and move on to somewhere else thats still at low entry level ..
NOTE :
I AM NOT SAYING PROPERTY PRICES WILL CRASH..
JUST PERSONAL VIEW THAT, ITS BEEN STRETCHED , AND I FEEL THAT ITS ABOUT TIME, BANKS WILL START TO REVIEW THEIR PORTFOLIO .. AND LIQUIDITY SITUATION .. AFTERALL SUBPRIME IS NOT THAT LONG AGO ..
Rather than ‘fast rally’ or ‘rental yield’, I think macro economy and market sentiment play a bigger part here. Only a serious crisis or a prolonged recession can erode the confidence of buyers.
(I have highlighted how these factors influenced the previous property cycles from peak to bottom at http://propertysoul.com/2010/09/17/property-market-to-drop-50-in-1-to-2-years/)
Unlike stocks, property prices do not collapse overnight. And it takes at least two years to reach the bottom.
Also, estimating the duration of a slow market makes more sense than predicting the percentage of the fall.
The property market plunged 44.8% from peak end of 1998 but it climbs back shortly in 2000 Q2.
The market started falling 2nd half of 2000. Despite a 20% drop, you don't see the boom until 2007/2008.
devilplate
18-09-10, 00:53
Golden era for asia! Payback time for the ang mor! Its time for them to share one lobster!
Geylang OKT
18-09-10, 01:47
Not likely it will drop 30 or even 20%.. due to good rental yield for the next 1-2yr.
Rental yield will support the property market price from falling too much even it happen.
Where are you from? Timbuctoo or Greenland or Iceland? :D
Geylang OKT
18-09-10, 01:49
Actually there are alot of cash rich people around still waiting. If price drop by 5-10% many of them will chiong to buy liaoz, bringing up the price again, just like what happened last year.
Last year, recession, everybody waiting for low price which never came because many cash rich people spoil market, price drop a little only all chiong and buy.
:2cents:
If they had cheonged to buy this year, they will die very pain pain :D
It is not hard to see that our economy was buffered against the economic crisis by the construction industry from 4Q2008 to 4Q2009.
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/news/news/gdp4q2009.pdf
Since the construction & real estate are such important sectors that support other sectors e.g. logistic & finance, and also affect the social structure, the government will take extra care not to crash the property prices, but to grow it gradually over the years.
There are many tools at the government's disposal to control property prices e.g. less land sales, relax rules on down payment & deferred payment scheme, allow private property owners to buy HDB again, increase immigration, asking banks to relax lending criteria etc.
More 99 LH land are recently bought at very high prices (developers are getting more crazy). When they are launched next year, you will be seeing >$850 psf at not so good locations. For new 999 or FH properties, we should be looking at > $950 psf.
Land sales: http://www.h88.com.sg/article/Condo+site+at+Jalan+Eunos+sees+only+5+bids/
Enbloc: http://www.h88.com.sg/article/Toh+Tuck+Apartments+sold+for+%2434+million+in+en+bloc+sale/
And lastly, people like me will jump in to get another 999 or FH unit if price drops by just 10%.
Geylang OKT
18-09-10, 07:10
It is not hard to see that our economy was buffered against the economic crisis by the construction industry from 4Q2008 to 4Q2009.
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/news/news/gdp4q2009.pdf
Since the construction & real estate are such important sectors that support other sectors e.g. logistic & finance, and also affect the social structure, the government will take extra care not to crash the property prices, but to grow it gradually over the years.
There are many tools at the government's disposal to control property prices e.g. less land sales, relax rules on down payment & deferred payment scheme, allow private property owners to buy HDB again, increase immigration, asking banks to relax lending criteria etc.
More 99 LH land are recently bought at very high prices (developers are getting more crazy). When they are launched next year, you will be seeing >$850 psf at not so good locations. For new 999 or FH properties, we should be looking at > $950 psf.
Land sales: http://www.h88.com.sg/article/Condo+site+at+Jalan+Eunos+sees+only+5+bids/
Enbloc: http://www.h88.com.sg/article/Toh+Tuck+Apartments+sold+for+%2434+million+in+en+bloc+sale/
And lastly, people like me will jump in to get another 999 or FH unit if price drops by just 10%.
I wouldn't do that. :scared-4: :scared-3: :doh:
It is not hard to see that our economy was buffered against the economic crisis by the construction industry from 4Q2008 to 4Q2009.
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/news/news/gdp4q2009.pdf
The other way to look at it, construction lifted the economy or kept it going.
Since the construction & real estate are such important sectors that support other sectors e.g. logistic & finance, and also affect the social structure, the government will take extra care not to crash the property prices, but to grow it gradually over the years.
Takes time to land. Slowly up and slowly down is better than fast up and fast down.
There are many tools at the government's disposal to control property prices e.g. less land sales, relax rules on down payment & deferred payment scheme, allow private property owners to buy HDB again, increase immigration, asking banks to relax lending criteria etc.
Yes, many tools, as long as they stay in power.
More 99 LH land are recently bought at very high prices (developers are getting more crazy). When they are launched next year, you will be seeing >$850 psf at not so good locations. For new 999 or FH properties, we should be looking at > $950 psf.
Land sales: http://www.h88.com.sg/article/Condo+site+at+Jalan+Eunos+sees+only+5+bids/
Enbloc: http://www.h88.com.sg/article/Toh+Tuck+Apartments+sold+for+%2434+million+in+en+bloc+sale/
The baseline prices are set or maintained by developers. Once land sold, developers are free to price (at very high profit or even negative profit) who cares right? Buyers decided to bite or not. Negative is unlikley unless they have cashflow problems or bankrupt.
http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10297p.nsf/ImageView/Hougang%20S18%20-%20Location%20Plan/$file/HG-S18-sale-site-plan-LocationPlan.jpg
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=9964
And lastly, people like me will jump in to get another 999 or FH unit if price drops by just 10%.
Correct... the two forces of buying and selling interact with one another.
Two triangles, Top down and Bottom Up
Seller's Group
5% = maybe 25% want to sell
10% = maybe 20% want to sell
15% = maybe 15% want to sell
20% = maybe 10% want to sell
25% = maybe 5% want to sell
30% = maybe no one wants to sell But some will be FORCED TO SELL. Bargains surface only when they are FORCED TO SELL
Buyers Group
5% = maybe no one want to buy now
10% = maybe 5% want to buy
15% = maybe 10% want to buy
20% = maybe 15% want to buy
25% = maybe 20% want to buy
30% = maybe 25% want to buy
50% = maybe 100% want to buy, ability to buy is another thing.
5% less in price is perhaps balanced by 5% buyers = flat line
10% less in price is perhaps balanced agained by 10% buyers = flat line
But when economy tanks, engine stalls.
Some owners might have to sell at 5% to 50% loss. Some buyers can see bargains but cannot touch them...
When Sellers need to get out but the Buyers dare not touch. (20% to 50% less)deals might happen but it takes time. See Post 1997 line trends... it will drop and remain flat again (my prediction).
Figures are only for illustrative purpose only. Critique welcome.
I see some selling prices softening already. Like it or not, I think the price will go correct from here in general (except high end which can go both ways still).
I am true to my views, cos I already de-leveraged 2 of my units this year. One of which in end Aug. :p
I see some selling prices softening already. Like it or not, I think the price will go correct from here in general (except high end which can go both ways still).
I am true to my views, cos I already de-leveraged 2 of my units this year. One of which in end Aug. :p
Good for you.
:)
Correction = means the hands of GOD(act of GOD) or mortal beings with the limited ability to play GOD.
Example of a bargain in oct 2008. Valuation at 500k,owner selling 340k. Noone wanna buy. Why?
Eventually if 5-10% seller dumping at 30% disc. Remaining sellers of disc 5-20% will follow suits to dump at 30% to dispose and stay competitive.
If the tread stay flat growth. Which rich guy will not direct funds into somewhr to generate better returns? Than to hold and see flat growth for his properties? Yes maybe but either fh or city areas which appreciate more in the long run despite of some ageing.
good....others will continue to rent...
If the property market price dip by 50%, the whole Singapore economy will collapse ..... I don't think the government want too see this happen. If price do fall beyond control, government will step in and create demand !
If the property market price dip by 50%, the whole Singapore economy will collapse ..... I don't think the government want too see this happen. If price do fall beyond control, government will step in and create demand !
Haa haa, because those in the govt themselves are one of those cash rich people with multiple properties. They cannot allow this to happen. :rolleyes:
This scenerio is true IF :
1) HDB prices collapse
2) No more FTs coming
3) Reverse brain drain.. ie singaporeans leaving spore !
4) Govt Change .... Ie the existing govt gone !
5) World economy back in shit mode !
Am sure more reasons to add.. By the way.. what are the creditenals of this ah moh of spore local prop mkt ? Remember wat happen to those ah mohs CEOs of DBS ..... what impact they make etc... Let history be the judge...
at times others would want others to collapse and create opportunities snce their part of the world has gone under like stock market and oil prices....if everything is predictable no arbitrage for those vultures
some locals would get sucked in
This scenerio is true IF :
1) HDB prices collapse
2) No more FTs coming
3) Reverse brain drain.. ie singaporeans leaving spore !
4) Govt Change .... Ie the existing govt gone !
5) World economy back in shit mode !
Am sure more reasons to add.. By the way.. what are the creditenals of this ah moh of spore local prop mkt ? Remember wat happen to those ah mohs CEOs of DBS ..... what impact they make etc... Let history be the judge...
agree .these guy cant even do well on their own countries ..see wht happened..time to mess other countries esp china..thy wnt china china create more havocs for the easterners
thats when they will get to be hired
then those dumbo easterners wld think that the westerners are god in turning around the eastern collapsed countries whilst they cant turn around theirs for so many years.
btw they are not gods...we are LMAO
our forefathers did great in building the island....we can do better
rattydrama
21-09-10, 01:18
When Sellers need to get out but the Buyers dare not touch. (20% to 50% less)deals might happen but it takes time. See Post 1997 line trends... it will drop and remain flat again (my prediction).
Figures are only for illustrative purpose only. Critique welcome.
Your prediction is highly possible.
It is possible cos those of us who bought property last year already stretched their finance. It won’t be surprised there are many who sell 1 unit and buy back another 2 units with higher loan quantum.
The next round price adjustment will be flat as lesser could afford any additional units even at reasonable discounted price since finance overstretched and current units cannot sell at high price.
Any increase in price will be gradual. Unlikely it will be chased like what was happening early this year.
Your prediction is highly possible.
It is possible cos those of us who bought property last year already stretched their finance. It won’t be surprised there are many who sell 1 unit and buy back another 2 units with higher loan quantum.
The next round price adjustment will be flat as lesser could afford any additional units even at reasonable discounted price since finance overstretched and current units cannot sell at high price.
Any increase in price will be gradual. Unlikely it will be chased like what was happening early this year.
Excellent comments.
When there's no tomorrow in run away prices, people lose their rationality. Thinking it is a sure win thing to spilt one debt into two and buy more. But what they FAILED TO SEE is that they have a bigger debt to service than before.
Maybe from a $200k debt (1 HDB) to a $500k debt estimated (1 HDB and 1 Private or 1 Private to 2 or more Private). But when tomorrow comes, people deny the reality until it bites. Truth in "Reality bites".
It will hurt some who are bitten and do not wish to be bitten nevertheless.
rattydrama
21-09-10, 09:42
Pain is something that cannot be described. Its only that when one being hurt then pain can be “recognized”. It is too late when that happens.
My friend was burnt badly by Lehman Brothers in 1998. Guess what he said to me yesterday? He has lost his 100K++ CPF monies and he is not going to touch on any investment or property no matter how attractive is the projected returns.
He just wanted to work hard, thrift and save for his retirement. This is because it is painful to see hard earn money went to the longkang.
People who chased after property in 1997 could have this experience but its about 13 years ago. The pain could still be there for some depending how much one had lost.
These days, properties in Singapore are also played by those in their late 20+ or 30+ who only see profits because most of them bought their property mid of last decade.
Beware that market can be down (10%?) and stay there for at least 5 years before going up again. All your monies are trapped and you cannot plan for your future.
This group of people in their 20 – 30 may not have the actual experience on these kind of pain and agony. No cash can make you a lousy man.
Pain is something that cannot be described. Its only that when one being hurt then pain can be “recognized”. It is too late when that happens.
My friend was burnt badly by Lehman Brothers in 1998. Guess what he said to me yesterday? He has lost his 100K++ CPF monies and he is not going to touch on any investment or property no matter how attractive is the projected returns.
He just wanted to work hard, thrift and save for his retirement. This is because it is painful to see hard earn money went to the longkang.
People who chased after property in 1997 could have this experience but its about 13 years ago. The pain could still be there for some depending how much one had lost.
These days, properties in Singapore are also played by those in their late 20+ or 30+ who only see profits because most of them bought their property mid of last decade.
Beware that market can be down (10%?) and stay there for at least 5 years before going up again. All your monies are trapped and you cannot plan for your future.
This group of people in their 20 – 30 may not have the actual experience on these kind of pain and agony. No cash can make you a lousy man.
Sad to hear that... Sad as in he craved the word failure on his tomb.
Sad to hear that... Sad as in he craved the word failure on his tomb.
Yes, very sad.
House broken
Home lost and
Some Divorced.
Just because over geared... No $ but wanna play with $. God of gamblers.
So sad... some even committed suicide. :beats-me-man:
devilplate
21-09-10, 10:39
tats y we have wealth pyramid
ikan bilis
18-09-12, 08:36
http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/showthread.php?165029-Experts-warned-singapore-property-price-will-collapse-by-50-within-2-years
:confused: :confused: ??????......
http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/showthread.php?165029-Experts-warned-singapore-property-price-will-collapse-by-50-within-2-years
:confused: :confused: ??????......
You mean just like many analysts predicting late last year/early this year that Singapore property prices will drop 20 to 30% this year???
http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/showthread.php?165029-Experts-warned-singapore-property-price-will-collapse-by-50-within-2-years
:confused: :confused: ??????......
Ah B following the so call expert's step but he is more smarter. He predicted from 2011-2015 which is 4 yrs duration instead of 2 yrs ....hehehe..2015 :doh: !
Ah B following the so call expert's step but he is more smarter. He predicted from 2011-2015 which is 4 yrs duration instead of 2 yrs ....hehehe..2015 :doh: !
Ah B not smart lah...he just changes goal post whenever his predictions go off course...see his predictions in Oct 11 and then in Mar 12. His original prediction when he first started the thread is already way off...
Posted on 30 Oct 2011 (Post#31)
can you read??...
now down 10-20% from 1-2 moths ago....
1-2 yrs later...will be down 40% from 1-2 months ago....
don't shout any number what you like.....
Posted in Mar 2012 (Post #9590)
STI go below 1000 & property price down >50% in 2-3 yrs time before 2015....
Ah B not smart lah...he just changes goal post whenever his predictions go off course...see his predictions in Oct 11 and then in Mar 12. His original prediction when he first started the thread is already way off...
That's why MR B was named "TWIST & TURN cum DIVERT ATTENTION EXPERT" since long time ago.. :D
That's why MR B was named "TWIST & TURN cum DIVERT ATTENTION EXPERT" since long time ago.. :D
should open a underground casino. Only win no losses
Property expert says prices may collapse by up to 50 per cent in the next year or two
05:55 AM Sep 17, 2010
by Ephraim Seow Siew Lee
The dizzying rise in property prices here is not sustainable and the market may be heading for a hard landing in one to two years' time.
When that happens, property values may fall by as much as 50 per cent, according to an expert at a real estate forum yesterday.
Property experts speaking at the National University of Singapore's Institute of Real Estate Studies Forum said that excess liquidity in the market is the main factor that has been driving up property prices recently.
This liquidity may originate from prudent savings during the financial crisis, gains from the stock market run-up last year and foreign funds flowing here in search of better returns in Asian and emerging markets.
Mr Beat Lenherr, global chief strategist of LGT Capital Management, said: "I think that the money is finding a way around specific pointed measures and the money is just going to all the segments, micro-markets or micro-sectors."
Mr Lenherr also reckoned that the recent rally is not well supported and has been too fast, paving for a harder fall.
"If you look at the developments over the last four years, you clearly see elements of exaggerations where it doesn't make sense to buy in terms of rental yields or expected capital gains," Mr Lenherr added.
As such, he said property prices may "collapse by 30, 40 or 50 per cent" in the next one to two years.
Other speakers at the forum also said that the Singapore Government is still holding back on several other drastic measures such as the capital gains tax, which could dampen the property market abruptly if introduced.
They said the Government has so far been successful in building good neighbourhoods and community in its housing policies beyond controlling prices.
"I think the local market has been kept quite steady. I think the Government can indeed take pride in being able to making available affordable housing to more than 70 or 85 per cent of the masses," said Professor Bernard Yeung, Dean of NUS Business School. Ephraim Seow
URL http://www.todayonline.com/Hotnews/EDC100917-0000074/Property-expert-says-prices-may-collapse-by-up-to-50-per-cent-in-the-next-year-or-two
Copyright 2010 MediaCorp Pte Ltd | All Rights Reserved
Get your cash ready
Alll these analysts .. if turn out property price did fall 50%, they would say “see, I told you so!” and become a property guru … if price rise instead, they will say “I said MAY what, my words have been taken out of context ..”
buttercarp
18-09-12, 15:04
analyst=anal-list;)
The job of an anal-list is to anal-lice :D .
ikan bilis
18-09-12, 16:40
http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/showthread.php?165029-Experts-warned-singapore-property-price-will-collapse-by-50-within-2-years
:confused: :confused: ??????......
morning turned on computer, saw property bear throw a new thread at cna forum side today, shouting property to crash 50% within 2 yrs from now....
me google-d the source of the news for confirmation, somehow google points back to condosingapore and found that the news is exactly 2yr old news...
that property bear at cna side really made big mistake... i guess he used search engine to search "17Sep property crash" and forgot to check the year....
:doh: :doh:
The job of an anal-list is to anal-lice :D .
now u starting to think like me...:D:D:D:cheers5:
The double dip that is taking a longer while to come. I don't doubt it would come one day but in the meantime, savings get wiped out by inflation.
blackapple
20-09-12, 08:38
Will history repeat itself ?
Mr Tharman noted that many older Singaporeans have low CPF balances and are unable to achieve the IRR that the study has found. Wages were much lower in the past and these older Singaporeans were required to set aside less in their CPF Retirement Account. They were allowed to use much of their CPF savings for housing.
30 years down the road, will another MP might say that the older generation (us if still alive) was not earning enough as the median household income is now S$70,000. Minimum sum is 1 million ??
:scared-1: :scared-1:
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