View Full Version : HDB resale prices should stabilise in a year or so: Mah
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/news/story/0,4574,396487,00.html?
Published July 26, 2010
HDB resale prices should stabilise in a year or so: Mah
By EMILYN YAP
(SINGAPORE) Prices of resale flats should stabilise in a year or so as the Housing & Development Board (HDB) releases a record number of new flats into the market.
This was according to National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan, who spoke on the sidelines of HDB's 50th anniversary celebrations at Tampines yesterday.
Resale flat prices have been climbing in the last few quarters and they rose 4.1 per cent in Q2 from Q1 to a new high.
There is an 'imbalance' in the resale flat market, Mr Mah said. With the economy doing well, demand for resale flats from both first-time buyers and upgraders has been strong.
'I hope that with HDB pushing out a record number of flats, this imbalance will be addressed over the medium term,' he said. There should be stability 'maybe in another year or so'.
HDB will be launching 16,000 build-to-order (BTO) flats this year, 80 per cent more than in the previous year. Another 4,700 flats from executive condominium projects and the Design, Build and Sell scheme are potentially coming up.
It would be hard to say how resale flat prices will move in the short term, Mr Mah said. 'The economy for the first half was very strong, but all indications are that it may not be so smooth going in the second half.'
If the economy cools, 'the demand for housing will also slow down,' he said.
Accompanying the rise in resale flat prices was a hike in cash premiums which buyers pay. The median cash over valuation (COV) across all resale deals in Q2 was $30,000, up from Q1's $25,000.
Rising COVs are a concern but they are determined by demand and supply in the market and the government cannot intervene, Mr Mah said.
He advised first-time buyers to turn to the BTO market 'where there is zero COV, where the prices are lower, where the flats are of newer designs,' he said.
Regulators
26-07-10, 17:33
i dont see how new flats will help to balance situatn when growng number of pr can only buy resale flats.
Squall8888
26-07-10, 22:08
I think you should read between the lines. Prices could stabalise by end of the year meaning prices and COV will continue to rise. So by end of the year, COV will be at 50 - 60k and will stay there for a long long time. That is his meaning.
Well I read 'stabilise' as to mean COV going down and returning to 'normal' of 5-10k max...
Notice that the 50-60k COV of current status is considered by him as an 'inbalance'.
It is very obvious that neither prices nor COV will stabilise but will keep rising.
The government is not satisfying the demand, which is for flats in matured estates. That's what's driving up the COV.
The BTO in Punggol, Sengkang and Bukit Panjang is not going to satisfy the demand for flats in Marine Parade, Queenstown and Bishan.
Property is all about location, location and location.
An HDB flat in Punggol is not the same as one in Marine Parade, even though both have sea view.
While there will be new supply for private condos, there is no new supply for HDB flats in matured estates.
It is very obvious that neither prices nor COV will stabilise but will keep rising.
The government is not satisfying the demand, which is for flats in matured estates. That's what's driving up the COV.
The BTO in Punggol, Sengkang and Bukit Panjang is not going to satisfy the demand for flats in Marine Parade, Queenstown and Bishan.
Property is all about location, location and location.
An HDB flat in Punggol is not the same as one in Marine Parade, even though both have sea view.
While there will be new supply for private condos, there is no new supply for HDB flats in matured estates.
Same observation. It's about time that HDB have more "en-bloc" projects and build higher flats! There are many old ones in matured estates 8 to 11 storeys only. Good timing to let more (China) developers participate in Singapore market. Isn't everything nicely following into places?
No lah, going down to COV of $5-10k that is "DROPPING"! He didn't say "DROPPING", he says "STABILIZE". "STABILIZE" in an uptrend market means still increasing but at a more steady (and sustainable) rate (but still "INCREASING"!). "Stabilize" in a year or so means from now to 1 year later still "not stabilize" implies rate of increase will still be very fast! :p
Well I read 'stabilise' as to mean COV going down and returning to 'normal' of 5-10k max...
Notice that the 50-60k COV of current status is considered by him as an 'inbalance'.
Same observation. It's about time that HDB have more "en-bloc" projects and build higher flats! There are many old ones in matured estates 8 to 11 storeys only. Good timing to let more (China) developers participate in Singapore market. Isn't everything nicely following into places?
hmm... i'm abit torn in between... :beats-me-man:
on one hand, i agree with the logic, to have more relevant supply in mature estates to meet the demand... :)
on the other hand, if there are more supply, with estates like dawnson or en-bloc older hdbs, => the supply may eventually meet or exceed demand, => these 'jewel' hdb price may drop to a lower level... => a lot of 'commoners' in matured estates will be very unhappy with the hdb/gov.... :scared-2:
this effect may ripple out... => the 'feel-good' effect of 'being rich' may be lost and => its not good for the private property also.... :tsk-tsk:
so, the current illogical way "giving apples when oranges are demanded", seems like quite a good idea afterall.... :D
Regulators
27-07-10, 13:35
u have a point, he said stabilise, he did not say go down.
I think you should read between the lines. Prices could stabalise by end of the year meaning prices and COV will continue to rise. So by end of the year, COV will be at 50 - 60k and will stay there for a long long time. That is his meaning.
bargain hunter
27-07-10, 16:18
u mean force pple to eat apple when they crave for oranges? :ashamed1:
hmm... i'm abit torn in between... :beats-me-man:
on one hand, i agree with the logic, to have more relevant supply in mature estates to meet the demand... :)
on the other hand, if there are more supply, with estates like dawnson or en-bloc older hdbs, => the supply may eventually meet or exceed demand, => these 'jewel' hdb price may drop to a lower level... => a lot of 'commoners' in matured estates will be very unhappy with the hdb/gov.... :scared-2:
this effect may ripple out... => the 'feel-good' effect of 'being rich' may be lost and => its not good for the private property also.... :tsk-tsk:
so, the current illogical way "giving apples when oranges are demanded", seems like quite a good idea afterall.... :D
u mean force pple to eat apple when they crave for oranges? :ashamed1:
Buyer: "I want an orange from Marine Parade." http://www.weekiwis.com/gifs/orange.gif
Mah: "Ok. Here is an apple from Punggol. Only 30 cents each." http://www.iband.com/food/apple_red_small.jpg
Buyer: "I said I want an orange from Marine Parade. I'm willing to pay 50 cents." http://www.weekiwis.com/gifs/orange.gif
Mah: "Apples are just as good. Only 40 cents each."' http://www.iband.com/food/apple_red_small.jpg
Buyer: "I SAID I WANT ORANGE!!! I WILL PAY 60 CENTS!" http://www.weekiwis.com/gifs/orange.gif
Mah: "Very good. I have a fresh lot of apples today. Only 50 cents each. Cheaper and fresher! No need COV. You save 10 cents." http://www.iband.com/food/apple_red_small.jpg
you are the man / mah! hahaha....:D :D :D ....
really really like your postings...
ok, so let's assume that more new units are available in the matured estate, will it stop the COV raising? i think it depends....
in the first place hor, is there any figure / percentage to say the resale COV & valutaion are pushed up by buyers, who are also eligible to buy brand new flats from hdb? if yes, then increasing the brand new flats supply will manage this demand....
on the other hand, if the majority of the buyers are not eligible to buy brand new flats from hdb, then the increase in brand new flats supply would not help much? :beats-me-man:
oh yes, i'm not for nor against the hdb policy or any politician... coz really need a fine balance and not easy at all, if one wants to do a good job of it...
however, the delivery of the message can definitely be very much improved... :doh:
the current way of delivering of the message is like no / little logic like that lor, so, its not convincing at all.... :tsk-tsk:
Buyer: "I want an orange from Marine Parade." http://www.weekiwis.com/gifs/orange.gif
Mah: "Ok. Here is an apple from Punggol. Only 30 cents each." http://www.iband.com/food/apple_red_small.jpg
Buyer: "I said I want an orange from Marine Parade. I'm willing to pay 50 cents." http://www.weekiwis.com/gifs/orange.gif
Mah: "Apples are just as good. Only 40 cents each."' http://www.iband.com/food/apple_red_small.jpg
Buyer: "I SAID I WANT ORANGE!!! I WILL PAY 60 CENTS!" http://www.weekiwis.com/gifs/orange.gif
Mah: "Very good. I have a fresh lot of apples today. Only 50 cents each. Cheaper and fresher! No need COV. You save 10 cents." http://www.iband.com/food/apple_red_small.jpg
bargain hunter
28-07-10, 11:26
but there is no more land available for new hdb units in matured estate. if there is land, they will sell it to private developer.
you are the man / mah! hahaha....:D :D :D ....
really really like your postings...
ok, so let's assume that more new units are available in the matured estate, will it stop the COV raising? i think it depends....
in the first place hor, is there any figure / percentage to say the resale COV & valutaion are pushed up by buyers, who are also eligible to buy brand new flats from hdb? if yes, then increasing the brand new flats supply will manage this demand....
on the other hand, if the majority of the buyers are not eligible to buy brand new flats from hdb, then the increase in brand new flats supply would not help much? :beats-me-man:
oh yes, i'm not for nor against the hdb policy or any politician... coz really need a fine balance and not easy at all, if one wants to do a good job of it...
however, the delivery of the message can definitely be very much improved... :doh:
the current way of delivering of the message is like no / little logic like that lor, so, its not convincing at all.... :tsk-tsk:
bargain hunter
28-07-10, 11:28
Buyer: "I want an orange from Marine Parade." http://www.weekiwis.com/gifs/orange.gif
Mah: "Ok. Here is an apple from Punggol. Only 30 cents each." http://www.iband.com/food/apple_red_small.jpg
Buyer: "I said I want an orange from Marine Parade. I'm willing to pay 50 cents." http://www.weekiwis.com/gifs/orange.gif
Mah: "Apples are just as good. Only 40 cents each."' http://www.iband.com/food/apple_red_small.jpg
Buyer: "I SAID I WANT ORANGE!!! I WILL PAY 60 CENTS!" http://www.weekiwis.com/gifs/orange.gif
Mah: "Very good. I have a fresh lot of apples today. Only 50 cents each. Cheaper and fresher! No need COV. You save 10 cents." http://www.iband.com/food/apple_red_small.jpg
Newbie Buyers: "Ok, Mr. Marine Parade Buyer don't want, WE WANT, WE WANT! CHEAPEST APPLES IN THE MARKET!"
devilplate
28-07-10, 11:29
Mah will always want our resale HDB value to go UP
so long they keep BTO prices affordable, newly wed still can afford(and sure make $$$$ 3+5yrsMOP later):D
when PR, foreigners etc come and work...once they realised resale HDB is worth 'investing' or better off den paying rents...they buy and will get more rooted in SG (yes, u can argue tat they will sell and pack bag and go hm one day) tats one way to look at it: retaining FTs to set up their families here:D
like it or not, SG nid FTs....bcoz locals r not productive enuff!!!! (including me...opsss)
devilplate
28-07-10, 11:30
Newbie Buyers: "Ok, Mr. Marine Parade Buyer don't want, WE WANT, WE WANT! CHEAPEST APPLES IN THE MARKET!"
no choice oredi....punggol also goto accept liao...if not yishun, sembawang etc
but there is no more land available for new hdb units in matured estate. if there is land, they will sell it to private developer.
yup, no more / little empty land available.... and... like what komo said,
"...It's about time that HDB have more "en-bloc" projects and build higher flats! There are many old ones in matured estates 8 to 11 storeys only..."
So, supply can still go up, nett nett wise... just like my parents, we used to stay in a 12-storeys block in a matured estate, now the block is already rebuilt to 30-storeys, with few more blocks nearby... so there's definitely a nett increase in the number of units, even if we just consider the particular block...
so, its a very possible and *I suspect* very profitable business to enbloc hdb flats in matured estate... the nett increase in units should be more than the 'compensation' to existing owners... :D
moreover, land cost aside, since building costs is similar, regardless of building in marine parade or in sengkang, wouldn't it be more profitable to build in marine parade? :D
Regulators
28-07-10, 14:06
i think property agents are the ones that inspire confidence in hdb owners to jack up their COV to ridiculous amounts. Take for instance when there is an undersupply of flats in a certain area, exclusive agents marketing those rare listings will jack up prices for the owners and bidding wars among owners for the units is not uncommon. When owners in other neighbouring districts see the prices going up, they will also follow suit until the whole singapore is affected. COV is very contagious in matured estates with limited flats availability. Face it, when u check listings, how often do you find listings from direct owners? Agents have a powerful force in numbers to control the prices in the market.
you are the man / mah! hahaha....:D :D :D ....
really really like your postings...
ok, so let's assume that more new units are available in the matured estate, will it stop the COV raising? i think it depends....
in the first place hor, is there any figure / percentage to say the resale COV & valutaion are pushed up by buyers, who are also eligible to buy brand new flats from hdb? if yes, then increasing the brand new flats supply will manage this demand....
on the other hand, if the majority of the buyers are not eligible to buy brand new flats from hdb, then the increase in brand new flats supply would not help much? :beats-me-man:
oh yes, i'm not for nor against the hdb policy or any politician... coz really need a fine balance and not easy at all, if one wants to do a good job of it...
however, the delivery of the message can definitely be very much improved... :doh:
the current way of delivering of the message is like no / little logic like that lor, so, its not convincing at all.... :tsk-tsk:
bargain hunter
28-07-10, 14:11
it seems like the hdb en-bloc is a much slower process than private. could it be that they don't want to incur residents' wrath? currently, i only know of some hdb buildings built in the early 70s getting en-bloc. anyone know of any which were built in late 70s that have already been en-bloc?
yup, no more / little empty land available.... and... like what komo said,
"...It's about time that HDB have more "en-bloc" projects and build higher flats! There are many old ones in matured estates 8 to 11 storeys only..."
So, supply can still go up, nett nett wise... just like my parents, we used to stay in a 12-storeys block in a matured estate, now the block is already rebuilt to 30-storeys, with few more blocks nearby... so there's definitely a nett increase in the number of units, even if we just consider the particular block...
so, its a very possible and *I suspect* very profitable business to enbloc hdb flats in matured estate... the nett increase in units should be more than the 'compensation' to existing owners... :D
moreover, land cost aside, since building costs is similar, regardless of building in marine parade or in sengkang, wouldn't it be more profitable to build in marine parade? :D
Buyer: "I want an orange from Marine Parade." http://www.weekiwis.com/gifs/orange.gif
Mah: "Ok. Here is an apple from Punggol. Only 30 cents each." http://www.iband.com/food/apple_red_small.jpg
Buyer: "I said I want an orange from Marine Parade. I'm willing to pay 50 cents." http://www.weekiwis.com/gifs/orange.gif
Mah: "Apples are just as good. Only 40 cents each."' http://www.iband.com/food/apple_red_small.jpg
Buyer: "I SAID I WANT ORANGE!!! I WILL PAY 60 CENTS!" http://www.weekiwis.com/gifs/orange.gif
Mah: "Very good. I have a fresh lot of apples today. Only 50 cents each. Cheaper and fresher! No need COV. You save 10 cents." http://www.iband.com/food/apple_red_small.jpg
THIS EASILY QUALIFY FOR MY TOP 10 FAVORITE POSTING ON THIS FORUM FOR THE YEAR!!!
Probably more will be announced only after the elections. Not necessary to stir pple's emotions.
it seems like the hdb en-bloc is a much slower process than private. could it be that they don't want to incur residents' wrath? currently, i only know of some hdb buildings built in the early 70s getting en-bloc. anyone know of any which were built in late 70s that have already been en-bloc?
" He advised first-time buyers to turn to the BTO market 'where there is zero COV, where the prices are lower, where the flats are of newer designs,' he said. "
Mr Mah gooder, zero COV but set higher prices with each launch. Existing resale flats benefits from these new prices, so wealth is spread across the island not just town area. COVroomm!!
Well as they say, sell high, buy high.
But they forgot that higher sale prices means more tax income (stamp duty) for the gahmen...
LE-LONG LE-LONG....
Some more cheap cheap apples coming up....
=====================================================
HDB launches two more BTO flats at Bukit Panjang and Jurong West
By S Ramesh | Posted: 29 July 2010 1109 hrs
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/imagegallery/store/phpXBC9Wl.jpg
SINGAPORE: The Housing and Development Board is launching two new Build To Order (BTO) projects Thursday at Senja Gateway in Bukit Panjang and Corporation Tiara in Jurong West.
A total of 1,016 flats will be offered.
This comprises 254 units of Studio Apartments, 484 units of four-room and 278 units of five-room flats.
HDB says 95 per cent of the public supply of four- and five-room flats will be set aside for first-timers.
With Thursday's launch, HDB would have offered a total of 9,844 new BTO flats for the first seven months of this year, exceeding the supply of 9,000 BTO flats offered for the whole of 2009.
If demand from first-timer households is sustained, HDB says it is prepared to offer up to 16,000 BTO flats in 2010.
In comparison, the total annual take-up of HDB flats offered in the last ten years ranged from 7,000 in 2006 to 16,100 in 2000, and there were balance flats almost every year.
HDB adds that the upcoming projects for the rest of 2010 will enjoy a good geographical spread, covering areas such as Punggol, Sengkang, Woodlands and Yishun.
HDB adds that its new flats are priced with a generous subsidy below their market value.
The selling prices for the flats at Senja Gateway range from $67,000 to $95,000 for a Studio Apartment, $242,000 to $306,000 for a four-room flat and $308,000 to $398,000 for a five-room flat.
At Corporation Tiara the prices range from $242,000 to $325,000 for a four-room flat and $304,000 to $389,000 for a five-room flat.
Applications for the new flats can be submitted online from Thursday till the August 11.
HDB says it will continue to ensure that there is an adequate supply of new flats to meet housing demand.
Next month, flat buyers can look forward to the launch of about 1,400 flats in Yishun.
- CNA/jm
=====================================================
Buyer: "I want an orange from Marine Parade." http://www.weekiwis.com/gifs/orange.gif
Mah: "Ok. Here is an apple from Punggol. Only 30 cents each." http://www.iband.com/food/apple_red_small.jpg
Buyer: "I said I want an orange from Marine Parade. I'm willing to pay 50 cents." http://www.weekiwis.com/gifs/orange.gif
Mah: "Apples are just as good. Only 40 cents each."' http://www.iband.com/food/apple_red_small.jpg
Buyer: "I SAID I WANT ORANGE!!! I WILL PAY 60 CENTS!" http://www.weekiwis.com/gifs/orange.gif
Mah: "Very good. I have a fresh lot of apples today. Only 50 cents each. Cheaper and fresher! No need COV. You save 10 cents." http://www.iband.com/food/apple_red_small.jpg
LE-LONG LE-LONG....
Some more cheap cheap apples coming up....
No No No
U got it all WRONG !!!!
THESE BTO are the new blood into the area.. these people will buy there stay there and upgrade to OLDER CONDO OR NEW CONDO THERE LATER...
these are the future support for the condo prices around there... u get it?
It's apples to become apple pie.... a bigger pie from smaller apples... those who cannot afford is will become apple juice... those who profit from it will be apple jam.... and that goes into the apple pie...
its APPLE APPLE ABLE TO BUY
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