View Full Version : A Seller's Cautionary Tale From ST Forum 02 Oct 09
I AM compelled to share my experience as a cautionary tale after reading the report, 'Private homes still seeing high demand' (Sept 22). I was a flat owner of Gillman Heights, which was sold in a collective property sale exercise and for which I received $887,000 (around $520 per sq ft) for my 1,700 sqft three-bedroom unit.
By the time I received my money, I could only afford a similar unit far from the city and certainly not as central as Gillman Heights.
Former owners like me were assured we would receive priority in buying units in the new condominium - The Interlace - on the site of our former home.
But at $1,000 psf, I would have been effectively downgraded to a much smaller apartment at the same location. Worse, we were given only three days' advance notice of the exclusive preview for us to choose our units at the Shenton Way office of the developer, CapitaLand Residential.
The preview, like the units offered to us, was unfavourable. We were not given brochures and all we had to gauge the new condo visually was an amateurish miniature model which was a stark contrast to the sleek, three-dimensional and professionally crafted model displayed at the sales office at the public launch.
The preview seemed like a half-hearted attempt by the developer to meet its obligations under the sales pact.
Was the professional Interlace model completed and ready for viewing at the off-site sales office, and if yes, why was the 'private preview' not held at CapitaLand's temporary River Valley Road sales office instead?
Why were the preview for ex-owners and the public launch of The Interlace so starkly different? Former owners were not offered a discount and while it may seem like a public relations coup to announce that ex-owners of Gillman Heights would receive priority in selection of apartments in the new project, the ones we were offered were some of the most unfavourable.
So, if there is a moral to my experience for flat owners contemplating collective sale, I would say potential seller beware: Read the fine print over matters like priority purchase of the new condo.
Reginald Tan
Notice he left out information exactly when he received his money and exactly where he bought, if 80% of the owners at that time felt that the amount was a windfall, it most probably was. This guy is just greedy.
Notice he left out information exactly when he received his money and exactly where he bought, if 80% of the owners at that time felt that the amount was a windfall, it most probably was. This guy is just greedy.
Like what you had mentioned, at that time felt that the amt was a windfall. After that time, then they felt that the money received was actually peanuts as property prices sky rocketed.
Notice he left out information exactly when he received his money and exactly where he bought, if 80% of the owners at that time felt that the amount was a windfall, it most probably was. This guy is just greedy.
It also depends on when he bought the enbloc condo. Just a few months ago an existing owner of hong leong garden condo wrote in to describe the enbloc amount he received was hardly "profitable" as he had bought the condo just a couple of years back so even during the enbloc to become Hundred Trees, he merely got back his buying price (abt 700k) but he still lose out on SD and reno stuff like that...
It is a matter of timing, look at Farrer Court.
For GH, too bad, to blame the minority.
There is no winning chance at all. Wasting time and money.
If I recall correctly, NUS hold a majority of units there, they went with the enbloc, then partner with the developer. Windfall for them. The minority was right to go against the enbloc. With $520 psf, what can you buy? Not even a new condo in suburbans
Like what you had mentioned, at that time felt that the amt was a windfall. After that time, then they felt that the money received was actually peanuts as property prices sky rocketed.
Yes. I agree with you on the timing, GH with enbloc early in 2007 at 520psf, but FC was enbloc much later at above $1200psf. Both are former HUDC. Of course the minority of GH was unhappy.
Moral of the story, don't go for enbloc to early.
It is a matter of timing, look at Farrer Court.
For GH, too bad, to blame the minority.
There is no winning chance at all. Wasting time and money.
If I recall correctly, NUS hold a majority of units there, they went with the enbloc, then partner with the developer. Windfall for them. The minority was right to go against the enbloc. With $520 psf, what can you buy? Not even a new condo in suburbans
Caspian at lakeside also cost more that $520 psf during recession period. :D :D :D
Regulators
03-10-09, 23:06
very simply those gillman enblocers who sit in the committee to negotiate the deal are goons. the compensation is too little taking into consideration the land size. :doh:
If I recall correctly, NUS hold a majority of units there, they went with the enbloc, then partner with the developer. Windfall for them. The minority was right to go against the enbloc. With $520 psf, what can you buy? Not even a new condo in suburbans
...ha ha .. sound exactly like stock market operation ..pple inside know what is happening and .. poor minority as usual can only kpkb:hell-hath-no-fury:
very simply those gillman enblocers who sit in the committee to negotiate the deal are goons. the compensation is too little taking into consideration the land size. :doh:
They would have realised much less if they sold the units individually and being a 99 year LH property, it is a ticking time bomb. Better they sold enbloc and yet they still want more......if the property is worth less it is because it is worth less.
I think after this case, every lawyer will draft at least one page clause in the en-bloc agreement cover mountain and sea on "priority selection" offered by developer
They would have realised much less if they sold the units individually and being a 99 year LH property, it is a ticking time bomb. Better they sold enbloc and yet they still want more......if the property is worth less it is because it is worth less.
That's right.
Once an en bloc sale is sealed, an owner who wants to stay "hedged" in the property market should immediately buy a replacement property, and not wait until the developers offer them "choice units" in the new development.
Gillman Height's en bloc sale was closed in February 2007, before the steep rise in property prices (no doubt there were disputes and so forth, but that was a separate matter).
For example, with the $887 k, she could have bought a 797 sf Newton Suites apartment in Februray 2007 e.g. #10-04 $876,760 ($1,101 psf).
Today, the same floor 1,238 sf unit #10-02 was sold in 31 July 2009 at $2,100,000 or $1,696 psf.
Assuming the same psf price of $1,696 psf, the 797 sf Newton Suites apartment would be worth $1,351,712. She would have made $474,952.
If she wants to move back to Gillman Heights to stay at the Interlace, she can then sell her Newton Suites and buy a 1,350 sf Interlace apartment.
Although the new unit will be slightly smaller than her old 1,700 sf unit, her old flat was an old HUDC-type apartment similar to HDB design while this is a brand new real condo.
If she did not stay "hedged", then it was her own choice.
Probably she hoped that the market would go down further and she could scoop up something cheap? If that were the case, the market did crash early this year, but what was she doing?
I have a friend who was a Farrer Court En Bloc beneficiary who used the $2.3 million to buy a landed house, which is now worth more than $3 million.
The original HUDC flat only cost $20,000.
From $20,000 to $3 million. How can she say en bloc is no good? :confused:
What "cautionary tale" nonsense is she spouting? :tongue3:
very simply those gillman enblocers who sit in the committee to negotiate the deal are goons. the compensation is too little taking into consideration the land size. :doh:
Gillman was one of those who started early off the block for the collective sale in 2006. At that time $500psf seems like a good deal before the market peaked in the end of 2007 eventhough public housing was still affordable.
It took 2 years of proceeding to complete. Now that Centro and others has reached over $1000psf in OCR, the compensation seems regretable.:2cents:
Collective sales is about timing and time to completion. Get one or both of these wrong, it an utter disaster.:cool:
I have a friend who was a Farrer Court En Bloc beneficiary who used the $2.3 million to buy a landed house, which is now worth more than $3 million.
The original HUDC flat only cost $20,000.
From $20,000 to $3 million. How can she say en bloc is no good? :confused:
Aiyo, pls don't compare Farrer. Farrer owners touched lottery. That was once a life-time thing.
Is your friend staying in his/her $3m house? If so, the money has not been realised. :cool:
Aiyo, pls don't compare Farrer. Farrer owners touched lottery. That was once a life-time thing.
Is your friend staying in his/her $3m house? If so, the money has not been realised. :cool:
Yes her whole family is now staying in the landed house.
From an HDB-styled HUDC flat, the whole family has now moved into a multi-million landed house. That is several rungs up the ladder.
Money does not need to be converted into cash in order for it to be "realised". The feeling of wealth itself is a "realisation" of wealth.
In fact, of all things, money should not be held in the form of cash as it depreciates the fastest and earns the paltriest interests! :simmering:
That is provided she has the money pay the 20% and get a bank loan for the new property. And not all enbloc cases went through (like Horizon Towers), what if GH enbloc failed, she will be stuck with 2 properties. And when Lehmen collapse, property also collapse. Your hedged will incur huge paper loss, if she is using GH proceeds to finance the new property, she will lose big time.
That's right.
Once an en bloc sale is sealed, an owner who wants to stay "hedged" in the property market should immediately buy a replacement property, and not wait until the developers offer them "choice units" in the new development.
Gillman Height's en bloc sale was closed in February 2007, before the steep rise in property prices (no doubt there were disputes and so forth, but that was a separate matter).
For example, with the $887 k, she could have bought a 797 sf Newton Suites apartment in Februray 2007 e.g. #10-04 $876,760 ($1,101 psf).
Today, the same floor 1,238 sf unit #10-02 was sold in 31 July 2009 at $2,100,000 or $1,696 psf.
Assuming the same psf price of $1,696 psf, the 797 sf Newton Suites apartment would be worth $1,351,712. She would have made $474,952.
If she wants to move back to Gillman Heights to stay at the Interlace, she can then sell her Newton Suites and buy a 1,350 sf Interlace apartment.
Although the new unit will be slightly smaller than her old 1,700 sf unit, her old flat was an old HUDC-type apartment similar to HDB design while this is a brand new real condo.
If she did not stay "hedged", then it was her own choice.
Probably she hoped that the market would go down further and she could scoop up something cheap? If that were the case, the market did crash early this year, but what was she doing?
I have a friend who was a Farrer Court En Bloc beneficiary who used the $2.3 million to buy a landed house, which is now worth more than $3 million.
The original HUDC flat only cost $20,000.
From $20,000 to $3 million. How can she say en bloc is no good? :confused:
What "cautionary tale" nonsense is she spouting? :tongue3:
Good for your friend.
In FC case, the enbloc went through without any hitch. The owners got their proceeds pretty fast, with over $2 million cash on hand, you have plenty of choice.
Yes her whole family is now staying in the landed house.
From an HDB-styled HUDC flat, the whole family has now moved into a multi-million landed house. That is several rungs up the ladder.
Money does not need to be converted into cash in order for it to be "realised". The feeling of wealth itself is a "realisation" of wealth.
In fact, of all things, money should not be held in the form of cash as it depreciates the fastest and earns the paltriest interests! :simmering:
very simply those gillman enblocers who sit in the committee to negotiate the deal are goons. the compensation is too little taking into consideration the land size. :doh:
And that was the problem of the old enbloc. Anyone could form a committee, regardless of talent.
The deal for owners rests so much on these people. If you get greedy kan cheong types, you will be screwed.
Enbloc only works for owners if you are the last enbloc in the property cycle. The amount of time it takes to receive your sales proceeds is just too great, by the time you get the money you are priced out of the market.
Rarely worth it for owner-occupiers.
And that was the problem of the old enbloc. Anyone could form a committee, regardless of talent.
The deal for owners rests so much on these people. If you get greedy kan cheong types, you will be screwed.
Enbloc only works for owners if you are the last enbloc in the property cycle. The amount of time it takes to receive your sales proceeds is just too great, by the time you get the money you are priced out of the market.
Rarely worth it for owner-occupiers.
Exactly...
That is provided she has the money pay the 20% and get a bank loan for the new property. And not all enbloc cases went through (like Horizon Towers), what if GH enbloc failed, she will be stuck with 2 properties. And when Lehmen collapse, property also collapse. Your hedged will incur huge paper loss, if she is using GH proceeds to finance the new property, she will lose big time.
Yup, when I went to Lee & Lee to pick up my cheque I bumped into some owners of Tulip Gardens......... another one that fell through.
Some listened to the lawyers and didn't commit to a new property until they had the proceeds from the sale. They went to collect free money - the deposit.
Others followed the "hedging" advice & bought new places before the sale was completed. If they don't have strong cashflow and deep pockets they are in a world of hurt.
With enbloc there are too many variables. If minorities excercise their RIGHT to appeal it can drag things down , even if the sale is eventually approved.
enbloc is all about time. I got lucky through no skill of my own. Most dont.
Yup, when I went to Lee & Lee to pick up my cheque I bumped into some owners of Tulip Gardens......... another one that fell through.
Some listened to the lawyers and didn't commit to a new property until they had the proceeds from the sale. They went to collect free money - the deposit.
Others followed the "hedging" advice & bought new places before the sale was completed. If they don't have strong cashflow and deep pockets they are in a world of hurt.
With enbloc there are too many variables. If minorities excercise their RIGHT to appeal it can drag things down , even if the sale is eventually approved.
enbloc is all about time. I got lucky through no skill of my own. Most dont.
agree totally, en bloc is about timing. i was stucked in 2 properties when my enbloc failed at the last mintue. at that time, mkt went up too fast and I was also too "kan jiong". majority of my neighbours all in the same boat. luckily, we manage to find some rental to tie us through.
That is provided she has the money pay the 20% and get a bank loan for the new property. And not all enbloc cases went through (like Horizon Towers), what if GH enbloc failed, she will be stuck with 2 properties. And when Lehmen collapse, property also collapse. Your hedged will incur huge paper loss, if she is using GH proceeds to finance the new property, she will lose big time.
agree totally, en bloc is about timing. i was stucked in 2 properties when my enbloc failed at the last mintue. at that time, mkt went up too fast and I was also too "kan jiong". majority of my neighbours all in the same boat. luckily, we manage to find some rental to tie us through.
To stay in the private property market game, one always has to have cash on standby to pay the 20% deposit. This is especially since she already knew that the en bloc was coming.
I do not know why the word "stuck" is used to describe properties. In fact, properties is something desirable to be "stuck" with; while cash is not. I would rather say that I am "stuck" with cash in the bank earning miserable interests, while awaiting buying opportunities.
Let's say the above letter writer bought the 797 sf Newton Suites I suggested in February 2007, and then let's say that subsequently Gillman Heights en bloc failed.
She will be "stuck" with two properties, but she will be a very rich and happy woman. :cool:
Newton Suites 797 sf was $$876,760 ($1,101 psf) in February 2007 but $1,351,712 ($1,696 psf) today. She would have made $474,952.
On top of that, she still has her Gillman Heights apartment. What is it worth today? Much more.
CaptitaLand paid $352 psf ppr for Gillman Heights and is now able to achieve $1,000 psf. Obviously CapitaLand is the one laughing all the way to the bank. :spliff:
Imagine if the sale had failed at the Strata Titles Board. What is Gillman Heights worth today? Let's work backwards.
At a sale price of $1,000 psf, subtract $150 psf for profit margin, that's $850 psf. Subtract another $200 psf for construction costs, that's $650 psf.
That means if Gillman Heights were to be put en bloc today, developers can comfortably bid $650 psf ppr instead of $352 psf ppr.
That means the letter writer's Gillman Heights apartment should be worth ($650 / $352) x $887 k = $1,637,926.
She would have:
1. Got $750,926 more for her Gillman Heights apartment.
2. Earned $474,952 for her "kan jiong" replacement property at Newton Suites.
Total earned: $1,225,878 for this whole exercise! :scared-4: :p :spliff: :cheers1: :cheers6:
Regulators
05-10-09, 23:21
Gillman Hts is a classic example of being priced out of the market
And that was the problem of the old enbloc. Anyone could form a committee, regardless of talent.
The deal for owners rests so much on these people. If you get greedy kan cheong types, you will be screwed.
Enbloc only works for owners if you are the last enbloc in the property cycle. The amount of time it takes to receive your sales proceeds is just too great, by the time you get the money you are priced out of the market.
Rarely worth it for owner-occupiers.
http://www.zaobao.com/images1/zblogo.gif
房地产获准集体出售 一屋主反对被驳回
韩宝镇
联合早报
星期二, 6-10-2009
位于如切路包括Koon Seng House在内的一项房地产集体出售交易获得分层地契局通过，其中一名男屋主提出反对并上诉高庭，但是昨天被驳回。
男屋主也被令承担代表多数屋主的销售委员会的1万元讼费。
这个座落于坤成路（如切路一带）永久地契地段的房地产由两个部分组成，第一个部分楼高四层，有24个寓所，称为Koon Seng House；另一个部分则是九个战前排屋。
这些排屋由同一名屋主拥有。至于寓所则分属不同屋主所有，拥有99万9999年租契（Lease），但不包括土地。
发展商以2100万余元买下 整笔款项将由33单位平分
发展商是以2100万余元买下这个房地产。整笔款项将由以上共33个单位平分。
起诉人吴德理（52岁）援用房地契（分层） 法令第84E节条文提出上诉。
他指出，根据该项条文，只有屋主的房子拥有至少999年租契，并不拥有土地，才能够申请集体出售。
可是，九个永久地契有地房地产（freehold landed property）并不符合这项条文规定。
换言之，24个寓所符合可集体出售的规定，而九个排屋则不然。他因此认为，九个排屋不能平分2100万余元。
主审法官翁安德烈之前在审理这起案件时，也就这类房地产是否符合84节条文的集体出售规定，指示诉辩双方另作陈情。
翁安德烈法官昨天在下判时指出，房地契（分层） 法令第84E节条文足以涵盖本案房地产的集体出售情况。
换言之，这项房地产将能够进行集体出售。
据了解，吴德理将会向最高法院上诉庭提出上诉。
吴德理和妻子共同拥有Koon Seng House其中一个寓所。2006年11月23日，房地产的18个寓所屋主和拥有九个排屋的屋主都同意集体出售，并在过后成立销售委员会。
他虽然反对卖出公寓，但是他的妻子却同意参与集体出售。
委员会无法获得100％屋主同意集体出售，于是向分层地契局申请批准。
吴德理提出反对，理由包括所得分配不公平、向分层地契局提出的申请已超过期限、集体出售的程序有问题等，但都被分层地契局一一驳斥。
分层地契局是在去年12月裁决批准集体出售。吴德理于是向高庭提出上诉。
据了解，房地契（分层） 法令第84E节已修订，从之前的999年改为850年。本案援引的是修订前的条文。
To stay in the private property market game, one always has to have cash on standby to pay the 20% deposit. This is especially since she already knew that the en bloc was coming.
I do not know why the word "stuck" is used to describe properties. In fact, properties is something desirable to be "stuck" with; while cash is not. I would rather say that I am "stuck" with cash in the bank earning miserable interests, while awaiting buying opportunities.
Let's say the above letter writer bought the 797 sf Newton Suites I suggested in February 2007, and then let's say that subsequently Gillman Heights en bloc failed.
She will be "stuck" with two properties, but she will be a very rich and happy woman. :cool:
Newton Suites 797 sf was $$876,760 ($1,101 psf) in February 2007 but $1,351,712 ($1,696 psf) today. She would have made $474,952.
On top of that, she still has her Gillman Heights apartment. What is it worth today? Much more.
CaptitaLand paid $352 psf ppr for Gillman Heights and is now able to achieve $1,000 psf. Obviously CapitaLand is the one laughing all the way to the bank. :spliff:
Imagine if the sale had failed at the Strata Titles Board. What is Gillman Heights worth today? Let's work backwards.
At a sale price of $1,000 psf, subtract $150 psf for profit margin, that's $850 psf. Subtract another $200 psf for construction costs, that's $650 psf.
That means if Gillman Heights were to be put en bloc today, developers can comfortably bid $650 psf ppr instead of $352 psf ppr.
That means the letter writer's Gillman Heights apartment should be worth ($650 / $352) x $887 k = $1,637,926.
She would have:
1. Got $750,926 more for her Gillman Heights apartment.
2. Earned $474,952 for her "kan jiong" replacement property at Newton Suites.
Total earned: $1,225,878 for this whole exercise! :scared-4: :p :spliff: :cheers1: :cheers6:
An excellent write up i must say.
An excellent write up i must say.
Yes,Yes,Huat Ah$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
An excellent write up i must say.
Well, he forgot the cold sweat during the Lehman days and perhaps the sleepless nites as well
To stay in the private property market game, one always has to have cash on standby to pay the 20% deposit. This is especially since she already knew that the en bloc was coming.
I do not know why the word "stuck" is used to describe properties. In fact, properties is something desirable to be "stuck" with; while cash is not. I would rather say that I am "stuck" with cash in the bank earning miserable interests, while awaiting buying opportunities.
Let's say the above letter writer bought the 797 sf Newton Suites I suggested in February 2007, and then let's say that subsequently Gillman Heights en bloc failed.
She will be "stuck" with two properties, but she will be a very rich and happy woman. :cool:
Newton Suites 797 sf was $$876,760 ($1,101 psf) in February 2007 but $1,351,712 ($1,696 psf) today. She would have made $474,952.
On top of that, she still has her Gillman Heights apartment. What is it worth today? Much more.
CaptitaLand paid $352 psf ppr for Gillman Heights and is now able to achieve $1,000 psf. Obviously CapitaLand is the one laughing all the way to the bank. :spliff:
Imagine if the sale had failed at the Strata Titles Board. What is Gillman Heights worth today? Let's work backwards.
At a sale price of $1,000 psf, subtract $150 psf for profit margin, that's $850 psf. Subtract another $200 psf for construction costs, that's $650 psf.
That means if Gillman Heights were to be put en bloc today, developers can comfortably bid $650 psf ppr instead of $352 psf ppr.
That means the letter writer's Gillman Heights apartment should be worth ($650 / $352) x $887 k = $1,637,926.
She would have:
1. Got $750,926 more for her Gillman Heights apartment.
2. Earned $474,952 for her "kan jiong" replacement property at Newton Suites.
Total earned: $1,225,878 for this whole exercise! :scared-4: :p :spliff: :cheers1: :cheers6:
I have very high regard for jlrx. His/her comments are perhaps the most insightful and to some extent the most intellectually stimulating in this forum.
Investment looks so easy on hindsight.
I'm just curious as to why there is a lapse of consistency between the comment below suggesting investment is nothing more than witchcraft versus how would the Gillman Heights would be enblocker know to buy Newton Suites.
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?p=63952#post63952
Well, he forgot the cold sweat during the Lehman days and perhaps the sleepless nites as well
yeah you have a point.
I think i should not do anything because investing in property is such a risky thing esp with so many banks having problems these days. It is worse if you have 2 or more properties.
If i don't make a single mistake, i won't have sleepless nights or be drenched in cold sweat thinking about my losses. It's better to have a peaceful life in singapore.
Easier to put the money in the bank or stocks so that they will be safe and the returns from these instruments are better.
Will take your advice.
You are right, to stay in the property game, you need to have the money, holding power and dare to take risk. This round the market made a quick u turn up, what if the maket turn further south for a few more years.
To stay in the private property market game, one always has to have cash on standby to pay the 20% deposit. This is especially since she already knew that the en bloc was coming.
I do not know why the word "stuck" is used to describe properties. In fact, properties is something desirable to be "stuck" with; while cash is not. I would rather say that I am "stuck" with cash in the bank earning miserable interests, while awaiting buying opportunities.
Let's say the above letter writer bought the 797 sf Newton Suites I suggested in February 2007, and then let's say that subsequently Gillman Heights en bloc failed.
She will be "stuck" with two properties, but she will be a very rich and happy woman. :cool:
Newton Suites 797 sf was $$876,760 ($1,101 psf) in February 2007 but $1,351,712 ($1,696 psf) today. She would have made $474,952.
On top of that, she still has her Gillman Heights apartment. What is it worth today? Much more.
CaptitaLand paid $352 psf ppr for Gillman Heights and is now able to achieve $1,000 psf. Obviously CapitaLand is the one laughing all the way to the bank. :spliff:
Imagine if the sale had failed at the Strata Titles Board. What is Gillman Heights worth today? Let's work backwards.
At a sale price of $1,000 psf, subtract $150 psf for profit margin, that's $850 psf. Subtract another $200 psf for construction costs, that's $650 psf.
That means if Gillman Heights were to be put en bloc today, developers can comfortably bid $650 psf ppr instead of $352 psf ppr.
That means the letter writer's Gillman Heights apartment should be worth ($650 / $352) x $887 k = $1,637,926.
She would have:
1. Got $750,926 more for her Gillman Heights apartment.
2. Earned $474,952 for her "kan jiong" replacement property at Newton Suites.
Total earned: $1,225,878 for this whole exercise! :scared-4: :p :spliff: :cheers1: :cheers6:
I have very high regard for jlrx. His/her comments are perhaps the most insightful and to some extent the most intellectually stimulating in this forum.
Investment looks so easy on hindsight.
I'm just curious as to why there is a lapse of consistency between the comment below suggesting investment is nothing more than witchcraft versus how would the Gillman Heights would be enblocker know to buy Newton Suites.
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?p=63952#post63952
No. There is no lapse of consistency.
There is no way we can know whether the market is going up or down. We just have to take a risk, and bear the consequences that come with our decisions.
What I am trying to show is that, if she had stayed invested in the property market, she would not have been priced out of the market.
The letter writer had decided to take a risk by getting "unhedged" from the market (obviously by renting a place) so now that the market had flown away, she writes a letter to complain. :simmering:
On the other hand, if the market had collapsed totally and The Interlace now sells at 50 cents per sq ft, this lady would probably feel that she is a genius.
Well, he forgot the cold sweat during the Lehman days and perhaps the sleepless nites as well
That's why I cannot stand this lady writer; and all the complainers who write letters to the Straits Times forum.
When we take a position, we must bear all the sufferings that come with it; so that we earn the right to enjoy the successes that may come with it.
This is called "earning your right".
Do those complainers / letter writers know the feelings of investors who lost millions when the market plunged?
This lady (plus all the complainers) has had all the chance to buy during the Lehman days but she did not.
The way she portrays herself as a "victim" of the developer is a distortion of probabilistic event sequences.
I am just trying to show, with my illustrations, what she could have done, but did not.
If she did not, then that was her choice.
proud owner
06-10-09, 23:49
No. There is no lapse of consistency.
There is no way we can know whether the market is going up or down. We just have to take a risk, and bear the consequences that come with our decisions.
What I am trying to show is that, if she had stayed invested in the property market, she would not have been priced out of the market.
The letter writer had decided to take a risk by getting "unhedged" from the market (obviously by renting a place) so now that the market had flown away, she writes a letter to complain. :simmering:
On the other hand, if the market had collapsed totally and The Interlace now sells at 50 cents per sq ft, this lady would probably feel that she is a genius.
That's why I cannot stand this lady writer; and all the complainers who write letters to the Straits Times forum.
When we take a position, we must bear all the sufferings that come with it; so that we earn the right to enjoy the successes that may come with it.
This is called "earning your right".
Do those complainers / letter writers know the feelings of investors who lost millions when the market plunged?
This lady (plus all the complainers) has had all the chance to buy during the Lehman days but she did not.
The way she portrays herself as a "victim" of the developer is a distortion of probabilistic event sequences.
I am just trying to show, with my illustrations, what she could have done, but did not.
If she did not, then that was her choice.
she did mention that she wanted to buy back the same location ... which the developer promised to give them (GH owner) first chioce ...
hence she probably kept the money from the enbloc and waited for the launch ...
No. There is no lapse of consistency.
There is no way we can know whether the market is going up or down. We just have to take a risk, and bear the consequences that come with our decisions.
What I am trying to show is that, if she had stayed invested in the property market, she would not have been priced out of the market.
The letter writer had decided to take a risk by getting "unhedged" from the market (obviously by renting a place) so now that the market had flown away, she writes a letter to complain. :simmering:
On the other hand, if the market had collapsed totally and The Interlace now sells at 50 cents per sq ft, this lady would probably feel that she is a genius.
That's why I cannot stand this lady writer; and all the complainers who write letters to the Straits Times forum.
When we take a position, we must bear all the sufferings that come with it; so that we earn the right to enjoy the successes that may come with it.
This is called "earning your right".
Do those complainers / letter writers know the feelings of investors who lost millions when the market plunged?
This lady (plus all the complainers) has had all the chance to buy during the Lehman days but she did not.
The way she portrays herself as a "victim" of the developer is a distortion of probabilistic event sequences.
I am just trying to show, with my illustrations, what she could have done, but did not.
If she did not, then that was her choice.
Ok I think you went for an extreme example, right? Even Warren Buffet couldn't have thought of hedging with Newton Suites;) But of course, she should have hedged. Absolutely no question about that. Or the sales enbloc contract should be void when the cooling period greater than 1 year. Or the price should be adjusted and reconsidered.
However what I have found, some ppl in the last collective sale cycle who didn't buy also did not buy when Lehman collapsed. They were waiting for the market to fall. This is because noone one expected SG property to track the STI without lag. Not even Kwek, FEO or Mah.
There is a web site that tracks country income versus housing affordability from 1990 to now. Singapore is on it. It is absolutely riveting reading:scared-1:
One more thing. Straittimes job is to create advertising revenues is based on publicity and the best way is to put together a dramatic story. Fact or assumption is not the point:cool:
Ya, she thinks capital land will sell back to her at $520psf:doh:
she did mention that she wanted to buy back the same location ... which the developer promised to give them (GH owner) first chioce ...
hence she probably kept the money from the enbloc and waited for the launch ...
Regulators
07-10-09, 01:35
u r wrong bout ur safe haven. Put 500k in the bank n in time to cme ur money gets eroded by inflatn. For pty, prices tend to get adjusted upwards with monetary inflation n not forgeting u can sell 4 profit or rent for income. Apart frm liquidity, money in bank is of little use other than to satisfy ur kiasiism. I cant say the same for stocks but u hv to be astute to be a stock investor. I hv frends who make a lot of money in stocks for a living n there r also others who sweat n hv sleepless nites just buying 20k of stocks. To each his own but my safe haven is pty
yeah you have a point.
I think i should not do anything because investing in property is such a risky thing esp with so many banks having problems these days. It is worse if you have 2 or more properties.
If i don't make a single mistake, i won't have sleepless nights or be drenched in cold sweat thinking about my losses. It's better to have a peaceful life in singapore.
Easier to put the money in the bank or stocks so that they will be safe and the returns from these instruments are better.
Will take your advice.
Ok I think you went for an extreme example, right? Even Warren Buffet couldn't have thought of hedging with Newton Suites;)
I did not go for an extreme example. I am just quoting one example.
In fact my own example would be even more spectacular, but I don't wish to reveal the location for confidentiality reasons. :cool:
We can take another example far away from Newton Suites, i.e. Costa Del Sol #27-18, 1,475 sf.
Transacted 8 Jun 2006 at $1,163,000 ($788 psf).
Transacted 30 Apr 2007 at $1,388,000 ($941 psf).
Transacted 31 Aug 2009 at $1,888,000 ($1,280 psf).
The percentage increase is similar to Newton Suite's (unfortunately I can't find any transaction bought in Feb 2007 and sold in Aug/Sep 2009).
I chose Newton Suites because they have small units of 797 sf with investment amount very close to what that Gillman lady got from her en bloc, whereas the amount at Costa is quite large since they have larger units.
she did mention that she wanted to buy back the same location ... which the developer promised to give them (GH owner) first chioce ...
hence she probably kept the money from the enbloc and waited for the launch ...
She probably betted that the market would go down so that she can buy back The Interlace from CapitaLand at $520 psf or below.
Since she had placed such a bet, then she must accept the results.
After my own en bloc, some owners decided to keep the money in the bank and wait because they thought the market would go down so they could scoop up some cheap deals; while others like me quickly bought a "kan jiong" replacement property.
At that point in time, there was no way we could know the future; but once you have taken a bet, then you have to live with the results of that decision, and not accuse the developer of double-crossing you.
The developer who bought our condo also laughed all the way to the bank and is now offering at twice the psf price and 3 times the psf ppr (just like Gillman Heights/ Interlace), but I am not biting. :tongue3:
Property_Owner
07-10-09, 11:26
We can take another example far away from Newton Suites, i.e. Costa Del Sol #27-18, 1,475 sf.
Transacted 31 Aug 2009 at $1,888,000 ($1,280 psf).
:scared-3:
Ya, she thinks capital land will sell back to her at $520psf:doh:
Unless you get a one for one promise , ie direct exchange you will never come out on top.
Property_Owner
07-10-09, 11:35
jlrx, what trade are you in? How old are you?
You are right, to stay in the property game, you need to have the money, holding power and dare to take risk. This round the market made a quick u turn up, what if the maket turn further south for a few more years.
Need to be nimble. And go with the facts on the ground. And when they change be prepared to change.
When my place went enbloc in Q2 2008, it was one of the last ones to do so. No one knew for sure of that at the time but the fact was deals were already falling through at tulip gardens etc... Stock markets where already in a 6 month downward trajectory. Property transactions had dried up and prices were dropping.
The credit crunch was in full effect, bridging loans we had been seeking were all being turned down where they were easily available the year before.
If I had blindly remained "hedged" in property and instantly bought at that point it would have been the worst decision possible. We put the money in liquid assets - namely US dollar bond funds. As the sh*tstorm gathered pace, illiquid property in prime districts came down at least 30-40%. Liquid bond funds shot up 20%...... and were liquid! Which was great as we decided there was no where left to go but down at 0% coupons during the height of the mess, we switched to corporate bond funds & some equity funds. In a single day. Try that with property even in the best of times. This switch has given another .... well you should know what has happened to markets since then.
I had been targeting to buy end 2010, all the experts said after Q2 2010 market would bottom. I was caught off guard by the bottom being in March. By end April I decided that even though the turn around made little sense to me, it was real, it had risen 5+% and we bought our replacement.
Not the bottom, but still down 35% from when jlrx would have hedged (instantly after getting the cheque)..... in the mean time had the cash to make some (hindsight) easy pickings and go positive rather than negative.
In an earlier post jlrx said what I did was dangerous. Well thats his opinion and is entitled to it. My opinion was that buying property in a falling market was even more dangerous.
Maybe my risk/reward appetite is greater.
Could the lady from GH done something similar? maybe, maybe not.
Waiting for the developer is the worst thing to do. Trusting them to do the right thing by you is really naive.
To have bought a replacement property, as a hedge, without a confirmed sale of your old place exposes you to all kinds of grief if property takes a downturn, like it did. I met some of these people at the lawyers. At that time it seemed like the downturn could last for years..... and the worry was bleeding them dry.
Looking back from today and saying "see , nothing to worry about"
On GH finally going through..........
Its sales committee chairman Robert Wiener said: 'It's been in limbo for a long time, now it's finally ended.
'It's a huge relief for many owners who had bought second properties and were really worried.'
They hedged and won I guess. If the sale had not gone through they could have ended up bankrupt. The worry was real and you can't put a $ sign on it.
I like property, I'm just not religious on it like some here. It's not the only way to make money. Being flexible and a different plan for different situations is key. Under different circumstances, like at the very beginning of a bull run, I may very well have done the same thing as jlrx suggested.
In fact you can get exposure to commercial and residential property via REITS which are liquid which I have done too.
I think jlrx did mention to play this kinda 'hedge' one needs to have ready cash for 20% downpayment rite .... the message here is about being responsible for your choice if you have taken a stand :)
Maybe different instrument suitable for different folks ....
There is no way we can know whether the market is going up or down. We just have to take a risk, and bear the consequences that come with our decisions.
What I am trying to show is that, if she had stayed invested in the property market, she would not have been priced out of the market.
The letter writer had decided to take a risk by getting "unhedged" from the market (obviously by renting a place) so now that the market had flown away, she writes a letter to complain. :simmering:
On the other hand, if the market had collapsed totally and The Interlace now sells at 50 cents per sq ft, this lady would probably feel that she is a genius.
That's why I cannot stand this lady writer; and all the complainers who write letters to the Straits Times forum.
When we take a position, we must bear all the sufferings that come with it; so that we earn the right to enjoy the successes that may come with it.
This is called "earning your right".
Congrats EDB, your trading plan works very well. The key to any investment is to have a trading plan, when to enter and when to exit. And don't blame anyone for your mistakes.
Need to be nimble. And go with the facts on the ground. And when they change be prepared to change.
When my place went enbloc in Q2 2008, it was one of the last ones to do so. No one knew for sure of that at the time but the fact was deals were already falling through at tulip gardens etc... Stock markets where already in a 6 month downward trajectory. Property transactions had dried up and prices were dropping.
The credit crunch was in full effect, bridging loans we had been seeking were all being turned down where they were easily available the year before.
If I had blindly remained "hedged" in property and instantly bought at that point it would have been the worst decision possible. We put the money in liquid assets - namely US dollar bond funds. As the sh*tstorm gathered pace, illiquid property in prime districts came down at least 30-40%. Liquid bond funds shot up 20%...... and were liquid! Which was great as we decided there was no where left to go but down at 0% coupons during the height of the mess, we switched to corporate bond funds & some equity funds. In a single day. Try that with property even in the best of times. This switch has given another .... well you should know what has happened to markets since then.
I had been targeting to buy end 2010, all the experts said after Q2 2010 market would bottom. I was caught off guard by the bottom being in March. By end April I decided that even though the turn around made little sense to me, it was real, it had risen 5+% and we bought our replacement.
Not the bottom, but still down 35% from when jlrx would have hedged (instantly after getting the cheque)..... in the mean time had the cash to make some (hindsight) easy pickings and go positive rather than negative.
In an earlier post jlrx said what I did was dangerous. Well thats his opinion and is entitled to it. My opinion was that buying property in a falling market was even more dangerous.
Maybe my risk/reward appetite is greater.
Could the lady from GH done something similar? maybe, maybe not.
Waiting for the developer is the worst thing to do. Trusting them to do the right thing by you is really naive.
To have bought a replacement property, as a hedge, without a confirmed sale of your old place exposes you to all kinds of grief if property takes a downturn, like it did. I met some of these people at the lawyers. At that time it seemed like the downturn could last for years..... and the worry was bleeding them dry.
Looking back from today and saying "see , nothing to worry about"
On GH finally going through..........
Its sales committee chairman Robert Wiener said: 'It's been in limbo for a long time, now it's finally ended.
'It's a huge relief for many owners who had bought second properties and were really worried.'
They hedged and won I guess. If the sale had not gone through they could have ended up bankrupt. The worry was real and you can't put a $ sign on it.
I like property, I'm just not religious on it like some here. It's not the only way to make money. Being flexible and a different plan for different situations is key. Under different circumstances, like at the very beginning of a bull run, I may very well have done the same thing as jlrx suggested.
In fact you can get exposure to commercial and residential property via REITS which are liquid which I have done too.
jlrx, what trade are you in? How old are you?
Hmmm ... :cool:
Must be a bit secretive in forums. :cool:
Some of the people here are not very friendly ... :cool:
In an earlier post jlrx said what I did was dangerous. Well thats his opinion and is entitled to it. My opinion was that buying property in a falling market was even more dangerous.
Maybe my risk/reward appetite is greater.
I still think that what you have done was dangerous. Like what this girl is doing.
http://allhatnocattle.net/beijing-crocodile.jpg
Just a misstep, and you could end up like that Gillman lady - priced out of the market.
The property market is very merciless, once you are left behind, it's very difficult to catch up. :scared-4:
Congrats EDB, your trading plan works very well. The key to any investment is to have a trading plan, when to enter and when to exit. And don't blame anyone for your mistakes.
I think he is EBD and not EDB ... :p
EBD has a trading plan, which is great! :cheers1:
However, some people like that Gillman lady has a "letter-writing plan", which I do not think too highly of. :tsk-tsk:
DarthRevan
08-10-09, 05:04
She probably betted that the market would go down so that she can buy back The Interlace from CapitaLand at $520 psf or below.
Since she had placed such a bet, then she must accept the results.
This I have to agree. "Life is simple, you make choices & don't look back".
This I have to agree. "Life is simple, you make choices & don't look back".
Life is like a box of chocolate. :D :D :D
u r wrong bout ur safe haven. Put 500k in the bank n in time to cme ur money gets eroded by inflatn. For pty, prices tend to get adjusted upwards with monetary inflation n not forgeting u can sell 4 profit or rent for income. Apart frm liquidity, money in bank is of little use other than to satisfy ur kiasiism. I cant say the same for stocks but u hv to be astute to be a stock investor. I hv frends who make a lot of money in stocks for a living n there r also others who sweat n hv sleepless nites just buying 20k of stocks. To each his own but my safe haven is pty
Hi Regulator, i was being sacarstic in my reply. Many thanks for actually writing back.
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