Property market sentiments?

[EBD]

Then your sengkang/buangkok 5-room HDB will worth only 250k, STI will be at 1,000, it will be a disaster.:scared-3: Almost everybody will lose $$, you may even lose your job, be careful of what u wish for.

Sorry, where was the part where he wished for this to happen?

BTW in a moment of reflection.
"200 day support line at 926" - smashed last night for S&P500.
What does this translate to for local property now? Bearish of bullish?

[jitkiat]

Sorry, where was the part where he wished for this to happen?

BTW in a moment of reflection.
"200 day support line at 926" - smashed last night for S&P500.
What does this translate to for local property now? Bearish of bullish?

IMO, both buyers & sellers will cool down. This will allow higher transaction volume in subsale/resale market at more realistic price.

[Douk]

I think the sellers are just making this opportunity to let go of their properties at a good price when the future look uncertain. And yes life does go on, ppl will sell and ppl will buy... but may I know what is the symptoms of a bubble?? Some ppl keep saying a bubble is forming (freaking me out! :P)

2nd wave of retrenchments possible as outlook remains uncertain
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/437813/1/.html

in my opinion, buying based on sentiment and greed without any fundamental support, is a form of bubble.

:2cents:

[Douk]

You guys can talk all days all nights. Posting angry thoughts towards each others. As what WD said

Life will go on

people will sell, people will buy.

:sleep: :sleep: :sleep:

[Property_Owner]

in my opinion, buying based on sentiment and greed without any fundamental support, is a form of bubble.

:2cents:

those bought in 07/08 on sentiment and fundamental support where are they now?

[Douk]

those bought in 07/08 on sentiment and fundamental support where are they now?

so many things could have happen to this group right, price is reasonably good then. those who have taken profit, are probably smiling watching all the arguments in this forum ;) those who choose to keep for own stay, bought at reasonably good price are smiling at people paying a high premium for the same apartment, etc, etc.

but in early 2008, fundamental is already diminishing.... which leads to the leaking balloon in the property market. some (some are small developers) who bought in 08 are probably stuck then. With "god's help", they were somewhat rescued by this latest wave of bull run.. probably the last wave if economy doesn't improve further.. :2cents:

[EBD]

Interesting how sentiment seems to be changing.

Seems most of the sales are directly from developers. Sorry, prices are really out there. Seems alot of the price "increase" has come from developers dropping launch prices from their original goals in 2008 when no one would bite, then slowly raise by a few %. Hey presto prices are increasing..... so devious of them.

As such I started to look around at property in the secondary market again, but seems like owners have raised asking prices by 10-20%.
I was informed by an old friend who is an agent that secondary market is still very quiet. Banks are willing to match valuation of new launches, but existing properties values are way below asking prices so people are buying from developers instead.
Well , they can ask for whatever they want. A lot are trying their luck.


I will be viewing a few units this week, but the news of the past few days is giving me 2nd thoughts. Seems we could be in the middle of a bear market rally popping.

[hans]

Now you know why recently, the developers, banks and valuers held talks with each other.


Interesting how sentiment seems to be changing.

Seems most of the sales are directly from developers. Sorry, prices are really out there. Seems alot of the price "increase" has come from developers dropping launch prices from their original goals in 2008 when no one would bite, then slowly raise by a few %. Hey presto prices are increasing..... so devious of them.

As such I started to look around at property in the secondary market again, but seems like owners have raised asking prices by 10-20%.
I was informed by an old friend who is an agent that secondary market is still very quiet. Banks are willing to match valuation of new launches, but existing properties values are way below asking prices so people are buying from developers instead.
Well , they can ask for whatever they want. A lot are trying their luck.


I will be viewing a few units this week, but the news of the past few days is giving me 2nd thoughts. Seems we could be in the middle of a bear market rally popping.

[bargain hunter]

that means that recent launch prices are fundamentally overvalued and artificially held up only by the valuer, bank, developer conspiracy theory?



Interesting how sentiment seems to be changing.

Seems most of the sales are directly from developers. Sorry, prices are really out there. Seems alot of the price "increase" has come from developers dropping launch prices from their original goals in 2008 when no one would bite, then slowly raise by a few %. Hey presto prices are increasing..... so devious of them.

As such I started to look around at property in the secondary market again, but seems like owners have raised asking prices by 10-20%.
I was informed by an old friend who is an agent that secondary market is still very quiet. Banks are willing to match valuation of new launches, but existing properties values are way below asking prices so people are buying from developers instead.
Well , they can ask for whatever they want. A lot are trying their luck.


I will be viewing a few units this week, but the news of the past few days is giving me 2nd thoughts. Seems we could be in the middle of a bear market rally popping.

[vin002]

Interesting how sentiment seems to be changing.

I will be viewing a few units this week, but the news of the past few days is giving me 2nd thoughts. Seems we could be in the middle of a bear market rally popping.

If you think that there will be a bear market coming and affect the property prices downwards, it will not be possible unless market drop to 1600 level again. The reason is not due to stock market affecting the property price but the whole economy situation affecting both market by then. And when that happened, many will also giving property a second thought due to going forward ability to pay.

In stock market, there is a correction period which we are currently encountering. And this will not affect property prices.

The reason for property prices to move up and holding well is due to the new launches selling at higher price although already given a "discount".

[Property_Owner]

If you think that there will be a bear market coming and affect the property prices downwards, it will not be possible unless market drop to 1600 level again. The reason is not due to stock market affecting the property price but the whole economy situation affecting both market by then. And when that happened, many will also giving property a second thought due to going forward ability to pay.

In stock market, there is a correction period which we are currently encountering. And this will not affect property prices.

The reason for property prices to move up and holding well is due to the new launches selling at higher price although already given a "discount".

I share what you feel. 1600? Dun think we will go down to that level again:)

[EBD]

that means that recent launch prices are fundamentally overvalued and artificially held up only by the valuer, bank, developer conspiracy theory?

This is just what I am told by a single agent. You make of it what you want. I'm not buying into it fulltime but it's something to keep in mind.

But there were launches around river valley that were unsuccessful in 2008 that have restarted at lower levels and then slowly increased.
How should these be considered. Price cut or price increase.

[scott7777]

hi,

I assume that as part of the strategy it was agreed that defaulting property purchasers would be helped by the banks/developers towards solvency, in a falling market to avoid a stampede for the exit. Agents have also helped by steering such defaulters towards an orderly and respectable selling at auction.

Nobody wants to see the price falls of Q1/09 repeated.

Developers can then offer tiny units at tempting prices, and it works. Stability maintained, then start on the price increases for choice units, and price increases for new launches.

Developers can also off-load tail-ends, clear the back-log and use this to maintain turn-over.

Private sellers catch on and with declining rentals put properties on the market.

After all, with Singapore's declining export market, what else is there to sustain the economy beyond government spending. It'll work as long as it can all be kept going till the world economy substantially improves, or the IR's come onstream.

[stalingrad]

in other words, buyers must be fools and continue to be fools for some time for the economy to be kept on a even keel.

[franzmark]

for new developments, many agents collect cheques for booking of units. once cheques collected, it is deemed that they have closed a deal. Half of those who issued cheques could back out and forego the unit if they decide to do so.


This is just what I am told by a single agent. You make of it what you want. I'm not buying into it fulltime but it's something to keep in mind.

But there were launches around river valley that were unsuccessful in 2008 that have restarted at lower levels and then slowly increased.
How should these be considered. Price cut or price increase.

[scott7777]

Not really. Depends on where you're standing.

After all, if you've got money on deposit you'll get 0.8%. If you want to take a punt then put some of the cash as a deposit and use IAS/DPS and get 2 years for the market to go up before TOP. Or meanwhile try and flip.

I've been looking to buy the past few weeks. My own circumstances lead to the conclusion that it's best for me to buy an older apartment, as large as possible, and with a 10 to 15 year horizon leading to en bloc. As the unit will be large (say, 1600 square feet) I can rent it out very, very competitively - even at HDB levels. Enough to cover expenses.

You can still pick up LH apartments in 15 years old units at 450 to 500 per square foot.

However, the sellers have raised prices the past 6 weeks so I'm waiting for a downturn.

But I'm easygoing about it. This is an investment, if I miss out, fail to grab, whatever, it doesn't matter - something else will come along sometime.

BTW - although it's an investment I'm making sure that I really like any unit that I buy as I may have to live in it.

[scott7777]

IMHO, I wouldn't say that buyers are fools. In fact I never call anyone a fool as we're all clever enough to survive, day-by-day, in this stressful world.

Buyers are making a choice. Prices are mainly lower this year than 2007. It all started with the Caspian being offered at 580 psf. It's gone up fast which usually means a correction.

I think that the building, construction, property market is one part of the governments strategy towards keeping the country stable and balanced during a world crisis. You'd probably do the same.

It must have been scary for the authorities to see GDP crashing, bank shares crashing, STI at 1500, and property crashing all at the same time in Q1/09.

The economic stimulus package is working. It'll take time. But it makes the recent property price rises look "not right" as another person posted earlier.

[august]

I



The economic stimulus package is working. It'll take time. But it makes the recent property price rises look "not right" as another person posted earlier.

prices do not "look right" bcos some sellers r asking peak prices of 07 or early 08 level.. maybe these sellers missed their exit opportunity the last round so is getting out now..

end of day, willing buyer willing seller ~ lol

[jitkiat]

in other words, buyers must be fools and continue to be fools for some time for the economy to be kept on a even keel.
Just like stocks, smart buyers do not commit all his funds into properties one shot !!! Say you want to buy 7 properties, you will first buy 4 properties, when market clears a significant resistance (say private residential index at 180 is broken or supply drawn down with high volume), you buy another 2 units. And your last buy may be a small studio somewhere when index at 200. So when you decide to sell, you will sell off 7 properties in one shot when index is at 220 or STI at 4,800.

Obviously, if you want to exercise such strategy, you need to be rich, have the holding power.

Only fools will commit 7 properties at one shot, near the peak :banghead:

:2cents:

[Douk]

yeah, just that each party has their own hidden agenda..
end of the day, it is those who buy high that suffers.. and as long as these are "private buyer"...


:2cents:

hi,

I assume that as part of the strategy it was agreed that defaulting property purchasers would be helped by the banks/developers towards solvency, in a falling market to avoid a stampede for the exit. Agents have also helped by steering such defaulters towards an orderly and respectable selling at auction.

Nobody wants to see the price falls of Q1/09 repeated.

Developers can then offer tiny units at tempting prices, and it works. Stability maintained, then start on the price increases for choice units, and price increases for new launches.

Developers can also off-load tail-ends, clear the back-log and use this to maintain turn-over.
Private sellers catch on and with declining rentals put properties on the market.

After all, with Singapore's declining export market, what else is there to sustain the economy beyond government spending. It'll work as long as it can all be kept going till the world economy substantially improves, or the IR's come onstream.

[stalingrad]

I am sure a lot of investors who jumped into the market recently are going to regret at the end of the year when the green shoots turn out to be poison ivy, and the market nose dives.

while one does not wish for that to happen. It seems likely the current recovery in market sentiment is based on wishful thinking of a V-shaped recovery in economic conditions. it will probably not be a V but rather W or L-shaped recovery. A lot of investors are going to be hurt, which will in turn drag down the banks.

[Allthepies]

unlikely to happen. becos the government wont allow property market to crash due to many reasons thats why the developers become very ya ya to keep increasing the price:spliff:

[jitkiat]

unlikely to happen. becos the government wont allow property market to crash due to many reasons thats why the developers become very ya ya to keep increasing the price:spliff:
In a country like Singapore, if properties crash even 50%, it would be a total disaster. Imagine how much CPF is tied to properties, how many bank loans using properties as collaterals are out there. Just think of Japanese style deflation after its property bubble burst (Nikkei peaked at 40,000 and today still at 10,000). Singapore cannot afford to have lost decades. That's why government has all kinds of weapons (indirect control via HDB BTO, stamp duties, property tax, land sales to name a few) to use at the right time. Even for rental market, government can enforce non-partitioning rule to prop it up.

[Allthepies]

In a country like Singapore, if properties crash even 50%, it would be a total disaster. Imagine how much CPF is tied to properties, how many bank loans using properties as collaterals are out there. Just think of Japanese style deflation after its property bubble burst (Nikkei peaked at 40,000 and today still at 10,000). Singapore cannot afford to have lost decades. That's why government has all kinds of weapons (indirect control via HDB BTO, stamp duties, property tax, land sales to name a few) to use at the right time. Even for rental market, government can enforce non-partitioning rule to prop it up.

yup tats basically sum up why property prices will be supported and keep going up :spliff2:

[EBD]

In a country like Singapore, if properties crash even 50%, it would be a total disaster. Imagine how much CPF is tied to properties, how many bank loans using properties as collaterals are out there. Just think of Japanese style deflation after its property bubble burst (Nikkei peaked at 40,000 and today still at 10,000). Singapore cannot afford to have lost decades. That's why government has all kinds of weapons (indirect control via HDB BTO, stamp duties, property tax, land sales to name a few) to use at the right time. Even for rental market, government can enforce non-partitioning rule to prop it up.

JitKiat,
It's not as if this has not happened before.
I nearly bought Parc Oasis in 1996. 800k for 99yr in jurong. For most of the next 10 years they were going for around 400k for 1200sqft.
Almost 1000 units in just that development.

Glad I didn't. Just waited 1 year and for even less money bought a unit at Grangeford.

The place I stayed at before Grangeford was the site of the new Devonshire one. That went enbloc in 1998 or 1999. Has been empty until 1 year ago and only just started building now.

HDB in Bishan was also fetching 500k in 1996. I heard so many people say HDB can never come down
How much was it for the subsequent 10 years?

These sound like lost decades for real estate anyhow.

There's only so much the government can do. Total real estate value of all of Singapore must be in the 100's of billions if not trillion. Can they afford to prop up such a market? The track record says they can't or wont, even going so far as to warn Singaporean in the height of the bubble in 2007/8 that speculators wont get bailed out.

Are things the same now as the last time around. No they never are. But new fault lines can appear. & most of the measures you mentioned they had last time around. I think the only one that's new is HDB BTO.

Just be wary the moment you hear "this time it's different...."

I just went to look at Valley Park this evening. The owner is asking 10% premium over the lastest transaction.
I am in two minds as to whether to buy or not at this moment. It's not as straight forward as you may think. There are certainly no guarantees.

[Regulators]

You must be old enough to be my father man. 1996 was just 1 year after i completed my NS.




JitKiat,
It's not as if this has not happened before.
I nearly bought Parc Oasis in 1996. 800k for 99yr in jurong. For most of the next 10 years they were going for around 400k for 1200sqft.
Almost 1000 units in just that development.

Glad I didn't. Just waited 1 year and for even less money bought a unit at Grangeford.

The place I stayed at before Grangeford was the site of the new Devonshire one. That went enbloc in 1998 or 1999. Has been empty until 1 year ago and only just started building now.

HDB in Bishan was also fetching 500k in 1996. I heard so many people say HDB can never come down
How much was it for the subsequent 10 years?

These sound like lost decades for real estate anyhow.

There's only so much the government can do. Total real estate value of all of Singapore must be in the 100's of billions if not trillion. Can they afford to prop up such a market? The track record says they can't or wont, even going so far as to warn Singaporean in the height of the bubble in 2007/8 that speculators wont get bailed out.

Are things the same now as the last time around. No they never are. But new fault lines can appear. & most of the measures you mentioned they had last time around. I think the only one that's new is HDB BTO.

Just be wary the moment you hear "this time it's different...."

I just went to look at Valley Park this evening. The owner is asking 10% premium over the lastest transaction.
I am in two minds as to whether to buy or not at this moment. It's not as straight forward as you may think. There are certainly no guarantees.

[jitkiat]

JitKiat,
It's not as if this has not happened before.
I nearly bought Parc Oasis in 1996. 800k for 99yr in jurong. For most of the next 10 years they were going for around 400k for 1200sqft.
Almost 1000 units in just that development.

Glad I didn't. Just waited 1 year and for even less money bought a unit at Grangeford.

The place I stayed at before Grangeford was the site of the new Devonshire one. That went enbloc in 1998 or 1999. Has been empty until 1 year ago and only just started building now.

HDB in Bishan was also fetching 500k in 1996. I heard so many people say HDB can never come down
How much was it for the subsequent 10 years?

These sound like lost decades for real estate anyhow.

There's only so much the government can do. Total real estate value of all of Singapore must be in the 100's of billions if not trillion. Can they afford to prop up such a market? The track record says they can't or wont, even going so far as to warn Singaporean in the height of the bubble in 2007/8 that speculators wont get bailed out.

Are things the same now as the last time around. No they never are. But new fault lines can appear. & most of the measures you mentioned they had last time around. I think the only one that's new is HDB BTO.

Just be wary the moment you hear "this time it's different...."

I just went to look at Valley Park this evening. The owner is asking 10% premium over the lastest transaction.
I am in two minds as to whether to buy or not at this moment. It's not as straight forward as you may think. There are certainly no guarantees.

Agree with your assessment. However, I also think it was partly the SG government fault back in 1996. The SG government should have introduced the special tax to punish the speculators in early 1995 when the private residential index was still below 140. From a technical charting perspective, the property index fair value should be only about 110 in 1995/96. Instead, the government allowed the index to reach 180 in 1996 before introducing speculative tax. The subsequent bubble bursting dragged the index down to 100. Many ppl I know bought in 1996 continued to hold till 2007 before they can sell at a slight loss. One case was an HDB in TPY bought at 550k, another was a landed property bought in Serangoon for 1.2mio, yet another case, Gillman Height HUDC bought at 900k+.

[jitkiat]

Talking about bubble, quoted from Wiki:

Prices were highest in Tokyo's Ginza (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ginza) district in 1989, with choice properties fetching over 100 million yen (approximately $1 million US dollars) per square meter ($93,000 per square foot). Prices were only marginally less in other large business districts of Tokyo. By 2004, prime "A" property in Tokyo's financial districts had slumped to less than 1 percent of its peak, and Tokyo's residential homes were less than a tenth of their peak, but still managed to be listed as the most expensive in the world until being surpassed in the late 2000s by Moscow (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow) and other upstarts.

93k psf ... :scared-5:

[scott7777]

I bought a large unit at Shelford Apartments in 1985 at S$325,000. I kept it and rented it and it went on en block in the 90's for 2.1M.

I bought a 2100 sq.ft. unit at Pandan Valley in 1986 for S$375,000 and sold for S$802,000. It's now worth over 2M.

I bought Watten Hill, 2600 sq.ft. in 1990 for S$730,000 and, luckily, sold for 1.53M in 1996 - just before the crash. A town house at Watten now goes for 2.2M.

My 5-room HDB was bought in 2005 for S$273,000 and it's now valued at S$385,000.

In 2005 it very clear that prices were about to take off. Now, in June 2009, the direction is very cloudy.

These units were bought privately, all older properties, all the maximum that I could mortgage, and all bought with years as a time frame.

In 1985 Singapore's population was 2.34M, now it's 4.8M.
In 1985 Singapore's land area was 680 sq.km, now it's 710 sq. km.

In 20 years time whatever you buy now will be worth more. Maybe a lot more, maybe an enormous amount more, but certainly more. Plus you can live in it, or rent it.

So what we're talking about is timing rather than appreciation, plus what are the alternative uses of your money. To me, it feels wrong at the moment. But I'm tracking several units.

And it's interesting to read the views here. For example, the comment by August :


prices do not "look right" bcos some sellers r asking peak prices of 07 or early 08 level.. maybe these sellers missed their exit opportunity the last round so is getting out now..


I think that this is another grain of truth/insight to add to the total. Let's keep it coming.

Caveat emptor.

[jitkiat]

Someone posted this at WFW thread, reposted in this thread as it is worth reading:

http://forums.condosingapore.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=765&d=1245852963

[Douk]

yup tats basically sum up why property prices will be supported and keep going up :spliff2:

In general, government uses HDB to indirectly control the mass market property price, setting CPF and loan regulation to control property speculation by lower and middle class. this is to restrict and protect the lower and middle class from losing too much $$. Private condo price can only be control to a certain level, it is still very much a free market based on supply and demand, and of course sentiment (like now).

It is a mistake to think that government will support the market to go up, because middle and upper class, if they lose $$, they can still survive with their knowledge and capability and doesnt overburden the government.

Government's job is not to ensure greedy ppl continue to make $$. they are more concern that the housing inflation will cause mass market property price to be unaffordable, and that will cause lower rung population to not able to afford a property. BUT they cannot stop the greedies from buying at high price, they can only advise ppl that this is not a V shape recovery.

The market has to correct by itself. those who buy at high price will be the one who suffer.. and dont blame the government then.:2cents:

[EBD]

You must be old enough to be my father man. 1996 was just 1 year after i completed my NS.

I was 25 back in 1996, if I am old enough to be your father, I guess I must have been very active at 4 years old! ;)

[bargain hunter]

i think at the rate things are going (1200 and above units a month), government might step in and say something sometime in August or September to cool things off. But not before more developers are allowed to clear stock between now and then. :p pent-up demand should be filled up by then and speculation would have correspondingly increased in proportion.




In general, government uses HDB to indirectly control the mass market property price, setting CPF and loan regulation to control property speculation by lower and middle class. this is to restrict and protect the lower and middle class from losing too much $$. Private condo price can only be control to a certain level, it is still very much a free market based on supply and demand, and of course sentiment (like now).

It is a mistake to think that government will support the market to go up, because middle and upper class, if they lose $$, they can still survive with their knowledge and capability and doesnt overburden the government.

Government's job is not to ensure greedy ppl continue to make $$. they are more concern that the housing inflation will cause mass market property price to be unaffordable, and that will cause lower rung population to not able to afford a property. BUT they cannot stop the greedies from buying at high price, they can only advise ppl that this is not a V shape recovery.

The market has to correct by itself. those who buy at high price will be the one who suffer.. and dont blame the government then.:2cents:

[silver023]

i think at the rate things are going (1200 and above units a month), government might step in and say something sometime in August or September to cool things off.

I'm wondering if whatever the govt says would affect the market. Like now, PM says recovery is a "big fat U" but property prices keep increasing, s'poreans keep shopping.

[bargain hunter]

I agree that its going to be a big fat U, although we r now at the starting part of that bottom of the U, economy-wise, we could stay at that bottom of the U for quite awhile. sooner or later, property prices (market forces) will realise that and stop rising, whether it will go back down (to form a W as Nomura says) or not is another thing depending on the market conditions then.




I'm wondering if whatever the govt says would affect the market. Like now, PM says recovery is a "big fat U" but property prices keep increasing, s'poreans keep shopping.

[Property_Owner]

I am sure a lot of investors who jumped into the market recently are going to regret at the end of the year when the green shoots turn out to be poison ivy, and the market nose dives.

while one does not wish for that to happen. It seems likely the current recovery in market sentiment is based on wishful thinking of a V-shaped recovery in economic conditions. it will probably not be a V but rather W or L-shaped recovery. A lot of investors are going to be hurt, which will in turn drag down the banks.

sometimes a bubble burst is good. If not some people will not get the property they want at a cheaper price.

[vin002]

Agree with your assessment. However, I also think it was partly the SG government fault back in 1996.

I agree with the statement. But previously, the govt fault was the over supply which they have learnt the lesson.



sometimes a bubble burst is good. If not some people will not get the property they want at a cheaper price.


Trust me, when that happened, it will only be good for some people. Majority will suffer. Do you think property will be at the mind of people then? It will only be bread and butter.

[jitkiat]

I agree with the statement. But previously, the govt fault was the over supply which they have learnt the lesson.

Judging from this graph, i think we are short of supply for new HDB flats

[vin002]

Judging from this graph, i think we are short of supply for new HDB flats

Not shortage but controlled supply (BTO). In 2000 to 2003, there are plenty of walk in selection. However, currently, the walk in supply are so limited.

With now the critical period for economy is to recover. If Govt pump in more supply to create an over supply situation, private property sector will be hitted badly. This will mean that credit crisis yet to calm down, create another crisis.

[nobrainer32007]

yah, esp some people who missed the boat totally. a lot of such people in this forum. probably talk a lot but no action till market cheong then hope market will drop back again :hell-hath-no-fury:


sometimes a bubble burst is good. If not some people will not get the property they want at a cheaper price.

[gfoo]

Let's put another perspective on things.

Look at the lease-buyback scheme that HDB launched, and was very warmly welcomed by the sheeple. Many if not most are in n high value, mature estates, and close to town. Then think about the implications:

An artificial cap to the ages-old thinking that even if HDB is 99yr, SERS will safeguard property values?
A much easier way to clear hangers-on for area redevelopment?
An end to a social contract to citizens (contrast this to the possible future FULL privatization of the HDB)
Much of the proceeds is retained in CPF as an annuity - the HDB doesn't trust citizens to manage their own funds?This scheme opens a pandora's box as to what can happen in the future.
Buying a HDB used to be retrograde as SERS sorta 'refreshes' the tenure of your flat without too much cost. This can now go, as the HDB has found a backdoor to enforce the shelf life of HDB flats through this scheme

In the condo world, 99LH can pay for LH topups. In the HDB world, this was done via SERS - a social contract. Is this no longer sacrosanct?

Food for thought

[august]

Let's put another perspective on things.

Look at the lease-buyback scheme that HDB launched, and was very warmly welcomed by the sheeple. Many if not most are in n high value, mature estates, and close to town. Then think about the implications:
An artificial cap to the ages-old thinking that even if HDB is 99yr, SERS will safeguard property values?
A much easier way to clear hangers-on for area redevelopment?
An end to a social contract to citizens (contrast this to the possible future FULL privatization of the HDB)
Much of the proceeds is retained in CPF as an annuity - the HDB doesn't trust citizens to manage their own funds?This scheme opens a pandora's box as to what can happen in the future.
Buying a HDB used to be retrograde as SERS sorta 'refreshes' the tenure of your flat without too much cost. This can now go, as the HDB has found a backdoor to enforce the shelf life of HDB flats through this scheme

In the condo world, 99LH can pay for LH topups. In the HDB world, this was done via SERS - a social contract. Is this no longer sacrosanct?

Food for thought

social contracts in SG is a 1-way street... what contract? lol :D

[gfoo]

social contracts in SG is a 1-way street... what contract? lol :D
Lol. Can already guess who your vote goes to IF your side no walkover

[august]

Lol. Can already guess who your vote goes to IF your side no walkover

hard to say.. i am democrat on the inside republican on the outside ~ hehe :D

[Property_Owner]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_obit_michael_jackson;_ylt=Ap49Piak7.vJy1pKK3q8auInHL8C;_ylu=X3oDMTJpMGJxMXJxBGFzc2V0Ay9hcC91c19vYml0X21pY2hhZWxfamFja3NvbgRjcG9zAzEEcG9zAzEEc2VjA3luX3RvcF9zdG9yaWVzBHNsawNraW5nb2Zwb3BtaWM-


Sigh

[seeker]

ya so sad about mj.

I'm no expert so don't flame me here.

I'm currently staying at a friend's place since last July 08 until my condo is ready. They been trying to sell this 50+ year old landed property abt 3000++ something sq ft i don't know exactly how big. Since last year there have been constant viewings (like 2 viewings per weekend) during the weekends and everything came to a standstill end 08, early 09. Nobody is interested.

BUT, these 2 weekends are just crazy. One agent can arrange for 8 different groups of pple to view the house. And today there were 3 agents with their groups. I asked the agents and they said market very hot now. And already there have been offers to buy the place. i see these pple with their expensive cars and some offer on the same day and wanted immediate answer.

And it's not like exactly flat bottom price at 1.7million just for the land only, house is totally too old and falling apart so pple who came were not here to look at the building.

so hot ah the market? or just super kiasu?

[jitkiat]

There are a few camps in the market right now:

1. Economic recovery will be sluggish but don't short the market because excess liquidity alone will support the market ... central banks will do it right, no inflation, we just drag along happily

2. Inflation or hyperinflation is coming, quickly buy commodities/gold & anything physical like properties as hedge

3. No inflation, deflation is going to strike back. SG property already in a bubble :scared-5::confused: that is going to burst real soon, rental will drop n drop, interest rate will shoot up through the roof, those who buy properties now will get burnt in hell

IMHO, diversify 30% of your cash into hard asset is necessary as I firmly believe central banks will tend to err on the inflationary side due to social & political pressure

[mightyleftfoot]

Whatever it is, unless u desperately need a place to stay, or unless u r a flipper, stay on the sidelines until u see a firm economic recovery..

[WolleyDragon]

I bought a large unit at Shelford Apartments in 1985 at S$325,000. I kept it and rented it and it went on en block in the 90's for 2.1M.

I bought a 2100 sq.ft. unit at Pandan Valley in 1986 for S$375,000 and sold for S$802,000. It's now worth over 2M.

I bought Watten Hill, 2600 sq.ft. in 1990 for S$730,000 and, luckily, sold for 1.53M in 1996 - just before the crash. A town house at Watten now goes for 2.2M.

My 5-room HDB was bought in 2005 for S$273,000 and it's now valued at S$385,000.

In 2005 it very clear that prices were about to take off. Now, in June 2009, the direction is very cloudy.

These units were bought privately, all older properties, all the maximum that I could mortgage, and all bought with years as a time frame.

In 1985 Singapore's population was 2.34M, now it's 4.8M.
In 1985 Singapore's land area was 680 sq.km, now it's 710 sq. km.

In 20 years time whatever you buy now will be worth more. Maybe a lot more, maybe an enormous amount more, but certainly more. Plus you can live in it, or rent it.

So what we're talking about is timing rather than appreciation, plus what are the alternative uses of your money. To me, it feels wrong at the moment. But I'm tracking several units.

And it's interesting to read the views here. For example, the comment by August :



I think that this is another grain of truth/insight to add to the total. Let's keep it coming.

Caveat emptor.

Hi Scott, not being rude..but with all the money made..why did you buy a 5 RM HDB in 2005?

[proud owner]

ya so sad about mj.

I'm no expert so don't flame me here.

I'm currently staying at a friend's place since last July 08 until my condo is ready. They been trying to sell this 50+ year old landed property abt 3000++ something sq ft i don't know exactly how big. Since last year there have been constant viewings (like 2 viewings per weekend) during the weekends and everything came to a standstill end 08, early 09. Nobody is interested.

BUT, these 2 weekends are just crazy. One agent can arrange for 8 different groups of pple to view the house. And today there were 3 agents with their groups. I asked the agents and they said market very hot now. And already there have been offers to buy the place. i see these pple with their expensive cars and some offer on the same day and wanted immediate answer.

And it's not like exactly flat bottom price at 1.7million just for the land only, house is totally too old and falling apart so pple who came were not here to look at the building.

so hot ah the market? or just super kiasu?

where about is this landed that you area staying now ?

[East Coast Boy]

Credit Suisse, which predicted in January that an astonishing 200,000 foreigners and permanent residents (PRs) might leave Singapore in 2009 and 2010 on the back of job losses, now thinks that the exodus may not be as bad as it had expected.

The evidence for this can be gleaned from the bank’s forecasts for the property market.

Based on its economists’ expectations of historically high job losses (up to 240,000) and an exodus of foreigners (up to 200,000) by the end of 2010, the firm’s property analyst Tricia Song had previously assumed that 15,000 homes could be vacated by 2011.

But in a report dated June 19, she says she now believes that just 3,000 private homes will be vacant from 2009 to 2011 as foreigners leave the country.

‘Anecdotally, we expect that the number of foreigners leaving Singapore will not be as high as we had expected,’ said Ms Song in the report.

This also means that private home prices will not be as badly hit as the firm predicted just six months ago. Credit Suisse had expected private home prices to fall by as much as 60 per cent from the peak to 2005 levels, partly because of the projected 200,000-foreigner exodus.

However, in part due to the smaller-than-expected job losses and foreigner exodus, Ms Song now says home prices could dip 25 per cent in 2009 before recovering 10-15 per cent in 2010.

The main cause for the change of view is a recent update by economist Cem Karacadag, who was part of the team that in January predicted that some 200,000 foreigners and PRs might leave Singapore in 2009 and 2010.

Credit Suisse said then that the potential drop in employment and population would have far-reaching implications for the economy.

But in a recent report, Mr Karacadag said job losses have not been as large as he had feared.

‘Singapore’s labour market has held up remarkably well in this recession and much better than we had anticipated,’ he said in a June 19 economics note.

Among various things, employers appear to have adjusted labour costs through salary cuts rather than cuts in headcount, he said.

Job losses so far this year have been surprisingly low against unprecedented job gains in 2007 and 2008, the note said. Net employment fell by only 6,200 in Q1 2009, although Singapore’s real GDP was 10 per cent lower in Q1 2009 compared to Q1 2008.

Mr Karacadag also upgraded his forecast for Singapore’s 2010 GDP growth to 4.4 per cent, from 3.9 per cent.

Source : Business Times – 29 Jun 2009

[sabian]

Some anal-yst...bo bo shooter
miss the mark by 80%...from 15000 revised to 3000?:scared-2:

[bargain hunter]

somemore blame the economist for the wrong figures and not herself hahaha


Some anal-yst...bo bo shooter
miss the mark by 80%...from 15000 revised to 3000?:scared-2:

[Localite]

I'm convinced Analysts are none wiser than you and me.

If only you watch the trends of what they say you'll be shocked at how it varies. There was once a study done that should that a random stock pick was better than aggregated average of analysts stock picks.

Very simple. You need to buy property then buy. In the long run you will always make. The more you wait the more you pay. Don't try to save a few dollars bargaining now. Now you are at the vicinity of the lowest point. Maybe +- 5% of the lowest point. 10 years down the line you will be laughing.

[scott7777]

Hi Scott, not being rude..but with all the money made..why did you buy a 5 RM HDB in 2005?

For my daughter. And because HDB is great value-for-money. Always try and keep an HDB apartment in your portfolio.

[scott7777]

Analysts are paid to make predictions. If you make several per day then the chances of being right will increase.

An analyst only needs 1 correct prediction that covers an important event to get fame and fortune.

The other thousands of incorrect, or marginally right, predictions are always forgotten. After all, tomorrow is another day, and another prediction.

Commonsense, that's what matters.

My earlier post giving details of some of my property purchases over the past 25 years was intended to illustrate the point just made by Localite.

Time matters, and the more time the less influence the ups and downs of the market.

If you're buying for investment (rental plus capital appreciation) buy somewhere that you wouldn't mind living in, because you may have to.

[seeker]

where about is this landed that you area staying now ?

central north but it's not thomson area. I'm just surprised by the intense interest suddenly. Almost like desperation!

[jitkiat]

By Sunday evening, it has sold 72 out of 106 units (68%)
launched at c.S$1,150/sqft. All the one-bedders (617-35 sq ft) and
most two-bedders (904sq ft) are sold out. Substantial three-bedders of
1153-1250 sq ft are also sold. Four-bedders from 1,313 sq ft are not
released yet.

[dragonred]

From The Atlantic

IDEAS: BUSINESS & ECONOMICS JULY/AUGUST 2009

Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who accurately forecast the bursting of the housing bubble and the resulting economic contraction, has become famous for his pessimism—he has been the gloomiest of the doomsayers. Which is what makes his current outlook surprising: Roubini believes that the Obama administration’s policy makers—and especially the much-maligned Tim Geithner—have gotten a lot right. Pitfalls may still abound, but he is now projecting an end to the recession, and he sees growth ahead.
by James Fallows

Dr. Doom Has Some Good News

ON MARCH 28, 2007, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke appeared before the congressional Joint Economic Committee to discuss trends in the U.S. economy. Everyone was concerned about the “substantial correction in the housing market,” he noted in his prepared remarks. Fortunately, “the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained.” Better still, “the weakness in housing and in some parts of manufacturing does not appear to have spilled over to any significant extent to other sectors of the economy.” On that day, the Dow Jones industrial average was above 12,000, the S&P 500 was above 1,400, and the U.S. unemployment rate was 4.4 percent.

That assurance looks bad in retrospect, as do many of Bernanke’s claims through the rest of the year: that the real-estate crisis was working itself out and that its problems would likely remain “niche” issues. If experts can be this wrong—within two years, unemployment had nearly doubled, and financial markets had lost roughly half their value—what good is their expertise? And of course it wasn’t just Bernanke, though presumably he had the most authoritative data to draw on. Through the markets’ rise to their peak late in 2007 and for many months into their precipitous fall, the dominant voices from the government, financial journalism, and the business and financial establishment under- rather than overplayed the scope of the current disaster.

With the celebrated exception of Nouriel Roubini, an economist from the Stern School of Business of New York University. At just the time Bernanke was testifying about the “contained” real-estate problem, Roubini was publishing a paper arguing that the depressed housing market was nowhere near its bottom, that its contraction would be the worst in many decades, and that its effects would likely hurt every part of the economy. In September 2006, with markets everywhere still on the rise, he told a seminar at the International Monetary Fund’s headquarters that the U.S. consumer was just about to “burn out,” and that this would mean a U.S. recession followed by a global “hard landing.” An economist who delivered a response dismissed this as “forecasting by analogy.” The IMF’s in-house newsletter covered Roubini’s talk as a curiosity, under the headline “Meet Dr. Doom.”

Roubini is thus enjoying his moment as the Man Who Was Right, a position no one occupies forever but which he is entitled to for now. As markets have collapsed, the demand for his views and predictions has soared. He travels constantly, and late this spring I met him in Hong Kong to ask what he was worried about next.

Roubini, who is 50, has a tousled look, from his curly black hair to his rumpled clothing. The initial impression he gave was of total physical exhaustion. When he spoke, at mid-afternoon in Hong Kong, he would scrunch his eyes closed tight, as if forcing himself awake, and shove his suit jacket sleeves and shirt sleeves high up from his wrists to his forearms in the same effort.

You often see this paralyzing fatigue in people who’ve recently made the flight to Asia. What was unusual in Roubini’s case is that even with eyes closed he kept emitting high-speed and complex answers, which proved on transcription to consist of well-formed sentences and logical sequences. They were delivered in an accent that is what you might imagine from someone who spent his first 20-plus years in Turkey, Iran, Israel, and Italy before going to the United States as a graduate student at Harvard. In a few cases, I later realized, the polish of his responses was because he was reciting passages from papers he had written, as if from an invisible teleprompter. But mostly he seemed to be drawing on data points and implications that were so much on his mind they could be processed and expressed even when the rest of him was spent.

The conversation was surprising in three ways: for the relatively high grades Roubini gave Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, generally the least-praised member of the Obama economic team; for the overall support (with one significant exception) he expressed for the administration’s response to the economic crisis; and for his willingness to look far enough beyond today’s disaster to speculate about the problems a recovery might bring. He was also full of advice about China’s reaction to the world financial crisis, including the suggestion that its options are narrower than its leaders may grasp.

ROUBINI’S COMPLIMENTS for Geithner were in the context of the intellectual and policy history of how the crash had developed and why its effects have been so severe. The dot-com and larger tech-industry crash of 2000 eliminated a tremendous amount of stock-market wealth. During the panicky sell-off of 1987, nearly a quarter of the New York Stock Exchange’s total value was lost in one day. By comparison, defaults on subprime mortgages would seem more limited in their capacity to harm the economy. Why, then, had so much gone so deeply wrong?

Roubini said that the difference was partly “debt versus equity.” That is, a loss of stock-market value is damaging, but defaults on loans, which put banks themselves in trouble, had a “multiplier” effect: “When there’s a credit crunch, for every dollar of capital the financial institution loses, the contraction of credit has to be 10 times bigger.” This was the process at work last fall, when banks that were concerned about their own survival cut off working capital to everyone else.

The more important difference between this crash and others, Roubini said, was that the speculative bubble involved so much more of the economy than the term “subprime” could suggest. “It was subprime, it was near-prime, it was prime mortgages,” he said, warming up to rattle off a long list. “It was home-equity-loan lines. It was commercial real estate, it was credit cards, it was auto loans.” The list was just getting started, and he used it to emphasize that almost every form of borrowing had been taken beyond reasonable limits, and that most forms of asset had been bid unreasonably high. And not just in the United States: “People talk about the American subprime problem, but there were housing bubbles in the U.K., in Spain, in Ireland, in Iceland, in a large part of emerging Europe, like the Baltics all the way to Hungary and the Balkans,” and most parts of the world. “That’s why the transmission and the effects have been so severe. It was not just the U.S., and not just ‘subprime.’ It was excesses that led to the risk of a tipping point in many different economies.”

Roubini’s case against Ben Bernanke and his predecessor Alan Greenspan is that they kept interest rates too low for too long—and downplayed the significance of the bubble they helped create. “They kept on arguing that this was a minor housing slump, and this housing slump was going to bottom out,” he said. “They kept repeating this mantra that the subprime problem was a ‘niche’ and ‘contained’ problem.” These were serious analytic errors, he said, of a sort that is common near the end of a bubble. “Bernanke should have known better, but it’s not really about him. It’s in everybody’s interest to let the bubble go on. Instead of the wisdom of the crowd, we got the madness of the crowd.

“So when the proverbial stuff hit the fan in the summer of 2007, [the Fed and the Bush administration] were initially taken by surprise,” he concluded. “Their analysis had been wrong. And they didn’t understand the severity of what was to come. And all along, their policy was two steps behind the curve.” He was much more respectful of the judgment that Timothy Geithner showed.

“You know, when Geithner became president of the New York Fed [late in 2003], the first eight speeches he gave were about systemic risk,” he said. (Most were about the way the growing complexity and interconnectedness of financial systems made it harder to know the real degree of risk the entire financial network was exposed to, and how far regulation was lagging behind the quickly changing realities. Most read well in retrospect.) Behind this difference in tone, according to Roubini, was a deeper contrast in belief about what the government could or should do when it saw a financial bubble beginning to form.

About the response once a bubble collapses, most economists are in agreement. Central banks around the world have been lowering interest rates to near zero and pumping new money into their economies. But could they have done anything to forestall the need to? According to Roubini:

“Bernanke, like Greenspan, had this wrong attitude toward asset bubbles. The official philosophy of the Fed was: on the way up with a bubble, you do nothing. You don’t try to prick it or contain it. Their argument was, How do I really know it’s a bubble? And even if I tried to ‘prick’ a bubble delicately, it would be like performing neurosurgery with a sledgehammer.”

The damage done in these boom-and-bust cycles, Roubini says, is greater than politicians and the media usually acknowledge. Stock-market averages eventually recover, as all buy-and-hold investors now keep telling themselves. (Except in Japan, where the main stock index stood near 39,000 in the late 1980s and is around 9,000 today.) But that doesn’t take into account the damage done to the real economy by the swings up and down. “These asset bubbles are increasingly frequent, increasingly dangerous, increasingly virulent, and increasingly costly,” he said. After the housing bubble of the 1980s came the S&L crisis and the recession of 1991. After the tech bubble of the 1990s came the recession of 2001. “Most likely $10 trillion in household wealth [not just housing value but investments and other assets] has been destroyed in this latest crash. Millions of people have lost their jobs. We will probably add $7 trillion to our public debt. Eventually that debt must be serviced, and that may hamper growth.”

Was there any alternative? Yes, if central bankers had taken a “more symmetric approach” to bubbles, trying to control them as they emerged and not just coping with the consequences after they burst. Geithner, he says, was one of those who saw the danger: “While Ben Bernanke was talking about a ‘global savings glut’ as the source of imbalances, Geithner was talking about America’s excesses and deficits. Like the Bank of England and the Bank for International Settlements, he was warning at the New York Fed that we had to be more nuanced in the approach of how you deal with asset bubbles.”

THE DISAGREEMENTS ABOUT proper bubble management are of more than historical interest, Roubini argues, because he sees the beginnings of another bubble already in view. He was more supportive on the whole than I would have expected about the Obama administration’s financial plans. “I have to give them credit that, less than a month after they came to power, they had achieved three major policy successes,” he said. These were passing the $800 billion stimulus plan, the mortgage-relief plan to reduce foreclosures, and the “toxic asset” plan to help banks clear bad loans from their books. He said that the initial version of the bank-rescue plan was “botched, because it was rushed,” but that the later version was better. “On each of these things, you can criticize specific elements,” he said. “But they did the big things, and those are the main parameters of what is a constructive policy response. For now, you have to deal with the problem you are facing. All in all I think the policy is going in the right direction.”

But someday, the emergency will be over. Then the side effects of today’s deficits-be-damned efforts to spend money and loosen credit will become “the problem you are facing.” Roubini has been tart about the things public officials should have known and the dangers they should have foreseen three or four years ago. What, I asked him, are the decisions of 2009 that we will be regretting in 2012?

For the only time in our conversation, he sat without responding for a measurable interval. “The regrets could be many,” he began. Uh-oh , I thought. “Even the best policies sometimes have unintended consequences.” He then itemized three.

The first involved banks. Like Paul Krugman and others, Roubini had been warning that many banks were weaker than they seemed. Rather than trying to nurse them along, he said, the government should move straightaway to nationalization: “I’m concerned that we’re not going to deal with the bank problem as we should,” he said. “Some banks are insolvent. To prevent them becoming zombie banks, the government should take the problem by the horns and, on a temporary basis, nationalize them. Take over these banks, clean them up, and then sell them back to the private sector. Not doing that is one mistake we may make and regret.”

Next, “monetizing the debt.” This sounds similar to the complaint that the government is spending too much now and will regret it later on, which was the main Republican argument against the stimulus plans. Roubini’s concern is different, and mainly involves the delicate process of turning off the extraordinary stimulus measures now being turned on full force.

“The Fed is now embarked on a policy in which they are in effect directly monetizing about half of the budget deficit,” he said. The public debt is going up, and the federal government is covering about half of that total by printing new money and sending it to banks. “In the short run,” he said, “that monetization is not inflationary.” Banks are holding much of the money themselves; “they’re not relending it, so that money is not going anywhere and becoming inflationary.”

But at some point—Roubini’s guess is 2011—the recession will end. Banks will want to lend the money; people and businesses will want to borrow and spend it. Then it will be time for what Roubini calls “the exit strategy, of mopping up that liquidity”—pulling some of the money back out of circulation, so it doesn’t just bid up house prices and stock values in a new bubble. And that will be “very, very tricky indeed.”

He mentioned cautionary recent examples. The last time the Fed tried to manage this “mopping up” process was after the recovery from the 2001 recession. To minimize the economic impact of the 9/11 attacks, following immediately on the dot-com crash, Alan Greenspan quickly lowered the benchmark interest rate from 3.5 percent, reaching 1 percent in 2003. By 2004 a full recovery was under way, and Greenspan began raising rates at what he called a “measured pace”—25 basis points, or one-fourth of 1 percent, every six weeks. “That implied it would take two and a half years until they normalized the rate,” Roubini said. “And that was one of the important sources of trouble, because at that point money was too cheap for a long time, and it really fed the bubble in the housing base.” So the lesson would be, when a recovery begins, get rates back to normal, faster.

“But that is very tricky,” he continued, “because if you do it too fast, when the economy is not recovered in a robust way, you might end up like Japan and slump back into a recession. But, of course, if you do it too slowly, then you risk creating either inflation or another asset bubble.” The great difficulty of making these fine distinctions is part of the “brain surgery with a sledgehammer” argument against attempting to intervene at all.

In Roubini’s view, there is no choice but to intervene. “We have to do what’s necessary to avoid a real depression,” he said. But he added that it is not too soon to lay plans for avoiding the consequences of too much money flowing rather than too little.

Roubini had recently been in China and met officials there. We talked about the bind that the world economic slowdown had created for China’s leadership—not despite but because of its huge trade surpluses and foreign-currency holdings. Many Chinese commentators have blamed American overborrowing and excess for dragging them into a recession. But even they realize that the very excess of American demand has created a market for Chinese exports. Chinese leaders would love to be less dependent on American customers; they hate having so many of their nation’s foreign assets tied up in U.S. dollars and subject to the volatility of American stock exchanges. But for the moment, they’re more worried about keeping Chinese exporters in business. To do that, they want to prevent their currency from rising. And for reasons laid out in detail in a previous article (“The $1.4 Trillion Question,” January/February 2008 Atlantic), the mechanics of finance require them to keep buying U.S. dollars and entrusting their savings to the United States. “I don’t think even the Chinese authorities have fully internalized the contradictions of their position,” Roubini said.

I agree. But I can report that for these past six months, virtually every economic conference I’ve heard of in China and every special supplement in a Chinese business publication has been devoted to the changes the country would have to make in order to reduce its vulnerabilities.

I asked Roubini whether, similarly, American authorities and the U.S. public appreciated the contradictions in their own position. He answered by returning to the damage caused by boom-and-bust cycles and the need to find a different path.

“We’ve been growing through a period of time of repeated big bubbles,” he said. “We’ve had a model of ‘growth’ based on overconsumption and lack of savings. And now that model has broken down, because we borrowed too much. We’ve had a model of growth in which over the last 15 or 20 years, too much human capital went into finance rather than more-productive activities. It was a growth model where we overinvested in the most unproductive form of capital, meaning housing. And we have also been in a growth model that has been based on bubbles. The only time we are growing fast enough is when there’s a big bubble.

“The question is, can the U.S. grow in a non-bubble way?” He asked the question rhetorically, so I turned it back on him. Can it?

“I think we have to …” He paused. “You know, the potential for our future growth is going to be lower, because of the excesses we’ve had. Sustainable growth may mean investing slowly in infrastructures for the future, and rebuilding our human capital. Renewable resources. Maybe nanotechnology? We don’t know what it’s going to be. There are parts of the economy we can expect to lead to a more sustainable and less bubble-like growth. But it’s going to be a challenge to find a new growth model. It’s not going to be simple.” I took this not as pessimism but as realism.

The URL for this page is http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200907/roubini

[Alan Tam]

Whatever it is, unless u desperately need a place to stay, or unless u r a flipper, stay on the sidelines until u see a firm economic recovery..
Fully agreed with what you said, I read and understand that they are about 29,000 units ready for TOP from now till 2012. Adding to the recent launched units of another 6000 to 7000 units, total of 36,000 units altogether, how to digest in today market at these price? Are we too optimistic????

[jitkiat]

We must likely have seen a major low on March 6th when the S&P hit 666 and here in Asia most markets really bottomed out in October and November of last year.

Lets say that for one reason or another the S&P which went to 956 and is now at around 920, drops to 800. I am sure that there will be another stimulus package and another massive monetary injection. And if it does not help then we will have another round when the S&P drops to 700. So I don`t think we will see new lows.


Couldn't agree more with this wise old man:old-chinese-guy:massive monetary injection will find its away into asset prices ... it is really a complex world

[apple3]

We must likely have seen a major low on March 6th when the S&P hit 666 and here in Asia most markets really bottomed out in October and November of last year.

Lets say that for one reason or another the S&P which went to 956 and is now at around 920, drops to 800. I am sure that there will be another stimulus package and another massive monetary injection. And if it does not help then we will have another round when the S&P drops to 700. So I don`t think we will see new lows.


Couldn't agree more with this wise old man:old-chinese-guy:massive monetary injection will find its away into asset prices ... it is really a complex world

Yup. How true and how complex. And how strange that with the monetary injection during the great depression, it was still the 2nd World War, that through industrialisation, US came out of recession. And how funny that with massive policy in place, the Jap still lost a good decade from the bubble game. :)

[sabian]

Yup. How true and how complex. And how strange that with the monetary injection during the great depression, it was still the 2nd World War, that through industrialisation, US came out of recession. And how funny that with massive policy in place, the Jap still lost a good decade from the bubble game. :)

:D

in house resident perma-bull

[blackswan]

We must likely have seen a major low on March 6th when the S&P hit 666 and here in Asia most markets really bottomed out in October and November of last year.

Lets say that for one reason or another the S&P which went to 956 and is now at around 920, drops to 800. I am sure that there will be another stimulus package and another massive monetary injection. And if it does not help then we will have another round when the S&P drops to 700. So I don`t think we will see new lows.


Couldn't agree more with this wise old man:old-chinese-guy:massive monetary injection will find its away into asset prices ... it is really a complex world

How great it will be if things works just as expected;)

[Begbie]

Reposting it here for open discussion:


The recent run up, just as with other run ups, is all down to the herd mentality and kiasuism. Just like in our stock market, the property market in Singapore doesn't price in fundamentals - it prices in mass psychology and the unique 'i'm better than you' aspiration Singaporeans hold so dear.

HDB upgraders and most Singaporeans make their property buying decisions not on fundamentals, but on just one thing - CPF. As long as the absolute price of the loan does not exceed the monthly contri of 2 working spouses - ie $2200 pm - they won't think so much. At current interest rates, $2200 services a loan of $800k for 33-35 years, or a $1m property. stretch this to 40 years, and that becomes $1.2m. Banks give up to 45 years, making it $1.3m. DBSS buyers have it better - HDB's moral security, and easy to obtain loans.

Local buyers today thus do not seriously factor in location, potential, etc as long as certain key words like 'CCR, RCR, minutes to IR/Orchard/etc, MRT' appear on marketing brochures. Heck they dun really even factor in LH/FH anymore. As long as the quantum meets CPF contri, 'we're practically getting this property for free since we can't draw out our CPF anyways'.

Others add to this list with other justifications like 'must be close to good schools'. People, proximity is no longer a determinant of entry. OBA and service affiliation rank higher today for the really good ones.

This CPF crutch even applies to the little more well off crowd that buy the One Devonshires and 'close to Orchard' properties. Heck, and additional $300-500 per spouse per month 'ain't gonna bust the bank.' and 'I'm essentially paying just $600-$1000 pm for Orchard property!! (not counting CPF contri of course)'

Thus:

I see a tripolarisation of the the property market in Singapore. One segment catered to the fundamentals, another for the price inelastic, and another for all the rest.

Fundamentals
Those that buy on fundamentals look at areas that have definite and quantifiable infrastructural/living/growth investments planned and executed. This market is truly price elastic. If prices outstrip fundamentals, prices will drop - if undervalued, prices will rise. These areas are growth areas hinged on expectations for the future based on existing, confirmed and executed planning investments. Such areas include the Biopolis belt, Marina Bay only. All the other areas - Paya Lebar, Lakeside, Punggol - when I see the money and the start of construction, then i'll call it.

Thus before you buy that 'close to orchard' property, ask yourself - is there growth potential in orchard road? how likely is it for lucky plaza/ paragon/ NAC to be torn down and rebuilt higher and denser? Is is cheaper to enbloc, tear down and build, or just to build in new growth areas on bare land?

Price Inelastic
The rich are not idiots. They buy properties that either will give them much much more returns in the future, or those that protect the sanctity, privacy and prestige of their family. differences in valuation by a million or two will not make much of a dent in purchasing decision more than how well the economy at large will serve them; or even tax laws. You have to really visit a private enclave in Singapore to understand how out of this world old money (and even new money like Jet Lee), and out ministars live. This market segment is intertwined with the fundamentals segment. Case in point - Sentosa. No doubt an exclusive enclave, but as the infrastructural and commercial investments supporting this enclave are in doubt - prices are still underwater. The rich really hate it when there's nothing around to pamper themselves with, and sailing every day is boring. Heck you can't even open the door and swim in the choppy waters or even the lagoon.

The govt is obviously creating a playground for the rich in Singapore - whether the Gardens, entertainment, resorts, tax laws, private banking, HQs, private marinas etc. Now this really hinges not on the success of the IR, but on how Singapore is successful in:
1) positioning itself for high net worth, and tax exempt monies.
2) building a playground for these individuals and thus upping the quality of life

Point 1) has me worried. US tax law changes and the OECD blacklist might be a game changer, and will work only if Singapore and beneficiaries find a way to skirt around this. Otherwise, it'll affect everything to FDI to expats to just about everything non-local around here. This is a huge issue that scares me. IT will affect the 'Fundamentals' segment, less so the private enclaves.


I know that this posting have been for a while, but i've been away for so long that this was the last i managed to read before my travels...

I couldn't agree more with ur statement in red, as I've heard of buyers who're rushing for the wrong reasons.."Not wanting to lose out"...

However dude, could u help out to explain a bit further with ur point 1 that I highlighted in blue.. bear in mind that i am not a money man.. Just really find this point pretty interesting to dwell further into...

oh yeah.. i've stopped smokin for 12 mths now.. was smokin for 10 yrs prior to that.. sure u can do it too dude.. haha...take it easy.. and it is nice to be back..

[jitkiat]

2nd US stimulus may b required soon ...

Oil is crashing back to 63USD, baltic dry index down to 3,200

All technical indicators point to weakness ... good luck to property flippers

[bargain hunter]

what level was the recent peak in the baltic dry index?



2nd US stimulus may b required soon ...

Oil is crashing back to 63USD, baltic dry index down to 3,200

All technical indicators point to weakness ... good luck to property flippers

[cheerful]

If the UG govt changes the tax rules in a way which resulting in less incentive for US firms to have their businesses overseas (tax in US, tax in the countries they operate in) ... wouldn't that already cause outflow of FDI fr S'pore?? Think something along that line ... ...


However dude, could u help out to explain a bit further with ur point 1 that I highlighted in blue.. bear in mind that i am not a money man.. Just really find this point pretty interesting to dwell further into...

[jitkiat]

what level was the recent peak in the baltic dry index?
10,000 ... reached a low below 2,000, rebounded to 4,000 ... now at 3,200

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=bdiy&exch=IND&x=15&y=11

\

[bargain hunter]

thanks jitkiat. i was following from 2k to 3k rebound then lost track so wondering where the recent peak went. now i know it is 4k.


10,000 ... reached a low below 2,000, rebounded to 4,000 ... now at 3,200

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=bdiy&exch=IND&x=15&y=11

file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/jitkiatt/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot-8.jpg

[blackswan]

All public for those whom have an internet connection.

We cannot say we have not been warned.


By Eric Martin
June 24 (Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is mirroring moves in oil and metals by the most in 53 years, jeopardizing strategies that seek to smooth out returns through diversification.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows the relationship between the S&P 500 and the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, which tracks 19 commodities, for the past 20 years. Their so-called correlation coefficient based on percentage changes over the past 60 days climbed to 0.74 on June 22, the highest in the two decades shown on the chart and in Bloomberg data going back to 1956. Readings of 1 mean prices are moving in lockstep.
“They’re kind of the same trade, a bet on improvement in the economy,” said Jeffrey Kleintop, who helps oversee $233 billion as chief market strategist at LPL Financial in Boston.
“I don’t think you’re diversified just because you have stocks and commodities in your portfolio.”
The S&P 500 has climbed 33 percent from a 12-year low on March 9 amid signs the deterioration in the U.S. economy was slowing. The CRB Index surged 25 percent from the almost seven- year low reached on March 2.


By Jeff Kearns
June 30 (Bloomberg) -- The drop in the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index below its level when Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed left the benchmark gauge of U.S. options prices 26 percent above its average.
A four-month rally in equities pushed the VIX to 25.35 yesterday, down 37 percent for the year and giving it the first close below 25.66, the level before Lehman filed the biggest- ever bankruptcy on Sept. 15, 2008. The index had declined 69 percent from its record of 80.86 on Nov. 20, 2008. Today, the VIX increased 3.9 percent to 26.35.
Above-average volatility shows traders are still paying up for insurance to protect against losses in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. More gains depend on investors overcoming the remaining skepticism, sometimes called the “wall of worry,”
spurred by last year’s 38 percent slump in the equity index, the steepest since 1937.
“It’s still elevated because people aren’t 100 percent sure this is all over,” said Stefen Choy, founder of Livevol Inc., a San Francisco-based provider of options market data and analytics. “Everyone is waiting because they know the worst is over, but they don’t know how fast the recovery is going to be.”
The VIX slipped 2.2 percent to 25.35 yesterday. The S&P 500 added 0.9 percent to 927.23, extending its best quarterly advance since 1998, as energy producers gained with the price of oil. The benchmark index for U.S. equities climbed 37 percent from a 12-year low on March 9 on speculation that the first global contraction since World War II is easing.

Signs of Recovery

In the U.S., the Conference Board’s measure of leading economic indicators increased in April for the first time since June 2008 and rose again last month. Analysts covering S&P 500 companies boosted 2009 profit estimates for the first time this year in May, weekly data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Lehman, once the fourth-largest U.S. securities firm, filed the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history on Sept. 15, prompting a freeze in credit markets. The VIX surged 24 percent to 31.70 that day.
The VIX has averaged 20.18 in its history stretching back to the start of 1990. After peaking in November, it dipped below 30 in May for the first time in eight months. The index reached an intraday record of 89.53 on Oct. 24.
The stock market has slumped in the past when the VIX traded at this level. It closed at 25.95 on June 15, 1998. The S&P 500 retreated 11 percent in the next 2 1/2 months as Russia’s debt default and Long-Term Capital Management’s failure caused losses at financial firms. The VIX stood at 25.47 on March 30, 2000, as the Internet bubble was bursting in a collapse that erased 49 percent from the benchmark index for U.S. stocks through October 2002.

Smaller Swings

The VIX is also dropping because stock-market swings are decreasing, which means dealers aren’t able to charge as much for contracts. Twenty-day historic volatility, a gauge of past price swings, for the S&P 500 has declined from this year’s peak of 51.16 on March 24 to a nearly 10-month low of 19.52.
“Option market makers have to maintain option prices at a level that reflects the actual volatility of the market,” said Dan Hutchinson, head of derivatives at Meridian Equity Partners Inc. in New York.
In February, Congress approved a $787 billion economic stimulus plan to help jump start growth and end the longest recession since World War II.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has made unprecedented use of the central bank’s powers as the lender of last resort. He kept banks liquid by accepting bonds they can’t trade as collateral for Treasuries and bailed out the nation’s biggest insurer, American International Group Inc.
“Fear of the doomsday scenario has definitely subsided,”
said Jeremy Wien, a VIX options trader at Societe Generale SA in New York. “Given the steps the government has taken and the decrease in huge market swings, it’s entirely reasonable for the VIX to drop to these levels and possibly even lower.”

By Michael Tsang, Rita Nazareth and Adam Haigh
July 6 (Bloomberg) -- The biggest drop in U.S. options prices since 1998 masks growing anxiety over the stock market’s rebound, as traders pay more for bearish contracts than any time since before the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Investors are spending the most since August 2008 to protect against a 10 percent decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index versus wagers on an advance, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s one month prior to New York-based Lehman’s bankruptcy. The premium on so-called put contracts increased even after the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, a gauge of U.S. options prices known as the VIX, fell 40 percent last quarter.
Traders are locking in gains on the S&P 500, which rose as much as 40 percent since March, on concern the worst U.S.
recession in a half century isn’t abating, according to Huntington Asset Management, BlackRock Inc. and Fiduciary Trust Co. The widening gap between bullish and bearish options belies the VIX’s retreat to below its level when Lehman collapsed and comes as U.S. companies prepare to report second-quarter earnings this week.
“Too many people are thinking the worst is over, life gets better from here,” said Peter Sorrentino, who helps manage
$13.8 billion at Huntington Asset in Cincinnati. “We’re scratching our heads, going, ‘Something doesn’t feel right here.’ It’s probably better to have some insurance on the books.”

Pay-Off Price

Sorrentino, who expects the S&P 500 to retreat more than 10 percent from last week’s closing price of 896.42, said he bought options that pay off if the index declines to 775 in December.
The “strike price,” or the level at which Sorrentino can exercise the contract, implies a 14 percent slump.
The S&P 500 fell 2.5 percent since June 26, the third straight weekly drop, after a worse-than-projected decrease in employment added to concern that rising joblessness will prolong the recession. Futures on the index lost 0.9 percent as of 10:29 a.m. in London today.
After losing almost $11 trillion during a 17-month bear market, U.S. equities have recouped 24 percent of their value since March 9 on speculation that corporate profits will rebound by year-end as economic growth resumes.
The S&P 500 climbed 15 percent in the second quarter, the biggest advance in a decade, as the government and Federal Reserve pledged $12.8 trillion to combat almost $1.5 trillion in losses at the world’s largest financial companies.
The rebound caused traders to pay less for options and pushed down the VIX, a measure of the S&P 500’s “implied volatility,” or expected price swings. It fell to a low of
25.35 on June 29 from 44.14 on March 31.

Not Normal

The reading indicates a 68 percent likelihood the S&P 500 will fluctuate as much as 7.3 percent in the next 30 days, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with the VIX’s all-time high of 80.86 in November, when traders priced in a swing of 23 percent in the S&P 500.
While prices for U.S. options have fallen, they are 38 percent above the average of 20.19 for the VIX over its 19-year history, a sign that financial markets have yet to return to “normal,” according to Carl Mason, head of U.S. equity derivatives strategy at BNP Paribas SA in New York.
The VIX ended last week at 27.95. On Sept. 15, the day Lehman declared the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history, the volatility index closed at 31.70.
“There’s still an element of caution,” Mason said.
“Things have gotten to pre-Lehman levels, but I’m not sure if we can call that normal. The level of the VIX is quite elevated compared to historical levels.”

Cost of Protection

Traders are more inclined to buy insurance against stock market losses than they are to speculate on more gains, options trading shows. The implied volatility for contracts that lock in profits if the S&P 500 falls at least 10 percent in three months was 29.03 on June 29, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
That compares with 20.20 for “call options” that pay off if the index rises at least 10 percent in the same period.
The difference between the prices of the two contracts, known as the implied volatility “skew,” steepened to 44 percent, the biggest premium since Aug. 28. The skew between contracts expiring in six months reached a nine-month high.
In Europe, demand for protection against losses has driven up skew on Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 Index options to the highest since November. Implied volatility for three-month bets on a 10 percent decline was 31.53 on July 1, compared with 23.08 for wagers on a 10 percent gain, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

‘Back to Reality’

“The jury is still out on the recovery,” said Mark Lyttleton, a London-based manager at BlackRock, which oversaw
$1.28 trillion globally as of March 31. “People are feeling the ‘green shoots’ now, but that will change over the next few months as they get back to reality.”
Call options on the S&P 500 convey the right, without the obligation, to purchase the index at a predetermined price on a specific date. S&P 500 put options give the buyer the right to sell at a set price on a future date.
Traders snapped up insurance against declines in the stock market as the World Bank said that the global recession this year will be deeper than it previously forecast, U.S consumer confidence unexpectedly weakened in June and delinquencies on the least-risky U.S. mortgages more than doubled.
Job cuts will probably push the U.S. unemployment rate to 10 percent by year-end and undermine consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, according to economists’
estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Earnings at S&P 500 companies have fallen a record seven straight quarters and are forecast to decrease for two more before rebounding at the end of 2009, analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. Analysts have trimmed projections for a fourth-quarter profit increase to 61 percent from a prediction of 95 percent when stocks began rallying in March.

Not Better Yet

“While we’ve avoided the doomsday scenario, the recovery is going to be modest,” said Michael Levine, a money manager at New York-based OppenheimerFunds Inc., which oversees about $150 billion. “There’s a concern that things have moved too far, too fast. Fundamentals just stopped getting worse, they haven’t gotten better yet. It’s not going to happen overnight.”
Bill O’Neill at Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management says the biggest decline in the VIX since 1998 shows that the appetite for protection has decreased and the premium paid for S&P 500 puts versus calls will diminish as companies start reporting second-quarter earnings this week.
Investors are paying $12.06 for every dollar of operating profit analysts estimate S&P 500 companies will generate next year, a 41 percent discount to the average of $20.45 since 1998, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Worth the Price?

“The potential for earnings upgrades is underappreciated,” said O’Neill, the London-based strategist at Merrill Lynch Global Wealth, which has $1.1 trillion in assets.
“Valuations per se shouldn’t block an equity-market revival.
The markets will be higher by the end of the year.”
Fiduciary Trust’s Michael Mullaney disagrees and says that the economy and corporate earnings haven’t improved enough to justify piling into equities after the S&P 500’s almost 40 percent rally from its March low.
“We need to have a dramatic improvement in the economy in order to keep on feeding the elevation in stock prices,” said Mullaney, a money manager at Fiduciary Trust in Boston, which oversees $7.5 billion. “All we can say about both the economy and earnings is that the forecast is just less bad.”
“People are taking some positions betting that if things don’t improve, they’ve got some protection,” he said.

[teddybear]

Please go read the Straits Times today on proposed law to tax on capital gains from sale of properties! This is sure a dampener to property prices and will most likely affect property prices as it will kill all speculators and speculations on properties! :simmering: (If economy still going down and down the drain but so many people so eager to buy properties at higher & higher prices - this is not speculation what is it?) As of now, most property stocks already crashed >6% (City Dev drop > 8%!) :scared-1:

[jitkiat]

Please go read the Straits Times today on proposed law to tax on capital gains from sale of properties! This is sure a dampener to property prices and will most likely affect property prices as it will kill all speculators and speculations on properties! :simmering: (If economy still going down and down the drain but so many people so eager to buy properties at higher & higher prices - this is not speculation what is it?) As of now, most property stocks already crashed >6% (City Dev drop > 8%!) :scared-1:
Actually I just wonder what difference does it make? Previously, when you gained from property trading, you must also report to IRAS. The only thing is probably many people purposely or unintentionally evade the tax by pretending that they don't know what is the definition of "trading". This new law only makes it very clear (i.e. you have no excuse in saying you don't know what constitutes trading) since the definition of trading is now more clearly defined in terms of law as selling more than one property within 4 years. It is just like making it explicit that all profit from stock contra trading is taxable. But this definitely will force all speculators to start offloading by 1 Jan 2010.

[silver023]

If the UG govt changes the tax rules in a way which resulting in less incentive for US firms to have their businesses overseas (tax in US, tax in the countries they operate in) ... wouldn't that already cause outflow of FDI fr S'pore?? Think something along that line ... ...

Obama proposing to change US tax rules so that US companies cannot defer tax on income derived by the companies (and their subsidiaries overseas). Further details on the proposed change have not yet been released. The impact of the proposed tax rules will not be known until details of the proposed changes are known, and the changes are passed as law.

As for OECD blacklists, this should not be a major problem for S'pore as the S'pore government is proposing changes in the tax laws so that they're aligned to OECD requirements (think MOF is having a public consultation on the proposed changes).

[jitkiat]

Fengshui defence helps couple avoid property deal tax http://www.asiaone.com/a1media/site/common/blank.gif
A COUPLE who were taxed on the profits they made on a property deal appealed - and have won their case against the taxman.
Their argument in this unusual case: they sold the apartment because of its bad fengshui.
Although Singapore does not have capital gains tax, which is charged on profits from the sale of assets, many people may not know that the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore (Iras) can tax individuals it deems to have traded in property.
The couple found themselves in that situation.
But they appealed to the High Court, and Justice Judith Prakash accepted their contention that the 1993 sale of the Waterside condo was not a trade - they had been compelled to sell it.
It is believed to be the first time Singapore courts have accepted bad fengshui as a legitimate reason for a property sale in a tax case.
But Justice Prakash did not accept the couple's reason for the sale of another property - a bungalow in Watten Close - which they said they sold after five months to avoid a lawsuit.
Under the Income Tax Act, profits made from property trades are taxable. The Act does not, however, define 'trade', but the courts consider a list of factors when assessing whether a transaction was a trade.
The criteria include the motive of the taxpayer, the length of ownership, reasons for the sale and whether the taxpayer has had many such transactions to his name.
In this current case, the couple bought eight properties and sold seven between June 1988 and March 1996.
In 1999 and 2000, Iras charged the couple tax on the Waterside apartment, the Watten Close house and two houses in Jalan Sejarah and Chatsworth Avenue.
They had made profits of over $1 million; the tax on that was about $250,000.
The couple asked Iras to review the case but this was rejected in July 2004. They next appealed to the Income Tax Board of Review on all except the Chatsworth Avenue purchase.
In December 2006, the board allowed their appeal on the Jalan Sejarah house but dismissed those on the Waterside unit and Watten Close house.
The couple then took the case to the High Court, which heard the case in May.
Their lawyer, Mr Nicholas Lazarus argued the couple had bought the properties as homes and sold them for non-commercial reasons.
A fengshui master had told them that the Waterside unit was bad for their careers and for the health of their unborn child.
As for the Watten Close house, the couple said they had a dispute with their renovation contractor, who threatened to sue them for breach of contract, so they hurriedly sold the house.
In her written judgment published yesterday, Justice Prakash said it was clear the couple were believers in fengshui, and noted that their case was supported by the fact that the money from the Waterside flat had gone into buying the Watten Close house.
But she rejected their explanation for the sale of that house as improbable.
Mr Lazarus, who has not decided whether his clients will appeal, said that this case was a timely reminder in the heat of the current property market: 'The law has always been there, but newcomers in the market may be happily buying and selling without being aware of it.'

[dtrax]

Maybe that would even more sales for new launches.. assuming investors have multiple or 1 unit(s) @ hand, they can sell/flip current one since new launch will probably take a few yrs to complete, but then 4yrs is still a rather long period making short term investors think twice about buying the next property.. any idea how much the gov is gonna charge for the tax?

[teddybear]

Capital gain tax normally is fixed at max rate (20% now)?


Maybe that would even more sales for new launches.. assuming investors have multiple or 1 unit(s) @ hand, they can sell/flip current one since new launch will probably take a few yrs to complete, but then 4yrs is still a rather long period making short term investors think twice about buying the next property.. any idea how much the gov is gonna charge for the tax?

[bargain hunter]

According to a stockbroking research report,


The new Section 10G states that an individual who
disposes of only 1 real property on any date on or
after 1/1/2010, and has not disposed of any other
real property within 4 years prior to the disposal
of the first property, shall not be taxed for any gain
arising from such a disposal. There is however no
provision for tax loss.


The new rule will also cover (a) options for new
property launches; and (b) part disposal of any real
property, eg strata units.

and its comment is:


Of bigger short-term concern however is the likely
impact of changes taking effect in January 2010 if
implemented: will this lead to “dumping” in the
coming months by buyers who are likely to be
deemed “traders”.

[Property_Owner]

Maybe that would even more sales for new launches.. assuming investors have multiple or 1 unit(s) @ hand, they can sell/flip current one since new launch will probably take a few yrs to complete, but then 4yrs is still a rather long period making short term investors think twice about buying the next property.. any idea how much the gov is gonna charge for the tax?

Who knows the market better then us. Why they want this property gain tax? Answer is simple. Marketing is coming back again and soon. They want to earn MORE rather then the stamp fee.
For sellers with mutiple units on hand, dun have to wait till top to sell. Price is right, make good profit I sell loh. Why wait for 4 years to save a bit and lose a lot if maeket change again.

[Regulators]

how can they not have property gains tax with people earning millions from property investments like you? Small time investors with less than half a mil of total gains from pty in 4 years should be exempted.


Who knows the market better then us. Why they want this property gain tax? Answer is simple. Marketing is coming back again and soon. They want to earn MORE rather then the stamp fee.
For sellers with mutiple units on hand, dun have to wait till top to sell. Price is right, make good profit I sell loh. Why wait for 4 years to save a bit and lose a lot if maeket change again.

[Property_Owner]

how can they not have property gains tax with people earning millions from property investments like you? Small time investors with less than half a mil of total gains from pty in 4 years should be exempted.

I knew this days will come. They sure aim people like me. What to do. Increase my selling price then. Once the rules are set in, small time or big time investors do you think they care or bother.

Sigh, next year ask my wife spend less on her shopping loh :D:D:D

[Regulators]

it is the small time investors or i should say home-sellers that get hit. Some people may not even actually be selling for capital gain as they want to relocate, and for nothing, they have to incur the additional tax on top of stamp duty etc. for those that buy dozens of property to flip, i think they should rightfully pay the tax. but in any case, you have enjoyed years of tax exempted income and i think it is high time you paid something back to society...lol, don't grill me....



I knew this days will come. They sure aim people like me. What to do. Increase my selling price then. Once the rules are set in, small time or big time investors do you think they care or bother.

Sigh, next year ask my wife spend less on her shopping loh :D:D:D

[bargain hunter]

jitkiat, head and shoulders on s&p, a bearish sign or confirming at least a short term bear?

[jitkiat]

jitkiat, head and shoulders on s&p, a bearish sign or confirming at least a short term bear?

Wah .. you are monitoring by the minutes ah? :sleep:

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/head-shoulder-formation-in-major-indexes-2727.html

I think if today and tomorrow night close below 875 ... pretty much confirmed. A more worrying correction is oil price actually.

[bargain hunter]

that's true for oil, kind of a sign that true demand for oil is simply not there.

but no, was not monitoring by the minutes, just happened to turn to bloomberg channel and heard them blabbing about it. :ashamed1:



Wah .. you are monitoring by the minutes ah? :sleep:

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/head-shoulder-formation-in-major-indexes-2727.html

I think if today and tomorrow night close below 875 ... pretty much confirmed. A more worrying correction is oil price actually.

[blackswan]

I knew this days will come. They sure aim people like me. What to do. Increase my selling price then. Once the rules are set in, small time or big time investors do you think they care or bother.

Sigh, next year ask my wife spend less on her shopping loh :D:D:D

How much speculation there is in the market, we will know soon from the lapsed S&P with potential buyers forfeiting their down payments.

However, as Bro Aladdin mention, this is pertaining to clearing the air on income tax and not property tax, so shouldn't be any impact on foreign speculators.

[sabian]

Property Supply
2011+2012

[sabian]

A word on the IRs. But perhaps the thing that will be on everyone’s’ lips in the next six months would be the impending opening of the two IRs.

The opening of Resorts World and Marina Bay Sands is touted by many as a potential game changer in the property sector. Over 4.5m-5m new visitors a year are expected to flock to Singapore for these IRs. And with over 20,000 new jobs expected to be created, the prospect of a knock-on effect on property demand is mouth-watering.

However, working through the numbers at the micro level paints a less upbeat picture. We understand that out of the 20,000 new jobs expected, over 50% will be targeted at locals at local wage packages. Of the remaining jobs set aside for foreigners, only 10-20% will be for managerial positions, with croupiers and dealers (estimated at less than S$2,000 per month) making up the rest.

Assuming this ratio for both IRs, our back-of-the-envelope estimation of new high-level foreign jobs works out to only 2,000. It is also questionable whether the wages of these new foreigners will be able to support property prices at current levels.

For the IRs to have a positive impact on the economy, execution will be key. The IRs are expected to enhance Singapore’s attraction as a living destination. If executed well, we believe the impact of the IRs could surprise on the upside.

from CIMB Research.

[SL]

Got to take into account the "support services" such as the oldest trade of mankind. These will take up some of the rental market.

[august]

without doubt everyone knows there is a further correction coming.. just waiting, waiting ....

[jitkiat]

without doubt everyone knows there is a further correction coming.. just waiting, waiting ....

It could also turn out that private residential index lowest point for next 3 years is Q2 2009 although investors might get lousy returns. For US stock market, I don't think there are a lot of short sellers out there even though US economy is weak because risk/reward is not attractive given that US government can suddenly announce a 2nd batch of stimulus. And I don't think showroom can be as hot once prices start to go up.

[bargain hunter]

it already feels quieter in this forum hee. i visited sophia residences yesterday and ferrell residences today, in particular, was outnumbered 30 hutton agents:1 client at ferrell. only 1 or 2 units sold. but those are bigger 3+study units. only 1 standard size of 1841sq ft for all 32 units. difference between #06 (lowest floor) to #21 is between 15xx to 16xx (just under 1700).





without doubt everyone knows there is a further correction coming.. just waiting, waiting ....

[Douk]

CNBC.com
Warren Buffett
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now that he's the world's greatest living investor, there are plenty of pupils anxious to attend class.

Today (Friday), ABC's Good Morning America featured several Buffett lessons.

ALSO ON WBW: BUFFETT'S COMPLETE SUN VALLEY CNBC INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT

In a taped interview, Bianna Golodryga asks Buffett for his "top three pieces of advice for average Americans who want to grow their savings and keep their money safe."

In this venue, there's no mention of intrinsic values, durable competitive advantages, or even buy-and-hold.

Buffett's response:

If it seems too good to be true, it probably is.


Always look at how much the other guy is making when he is trying to sell you something.


Stay away from leverage. Nobody ever goes broke that doesn't owe money.
Buffett also finds important life and investing lessons in his favorite game:
AP
Warren Buffett plays bridge at the 2005 Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


"In bridge, everything anybody does or doesn't do, you're drawing inferences from, including your partner and your opponents. You're working with a partner. If you don't work well with partners you're not going to have a winning bridge team over time. And everything you've learned from the past has some utility on the next hand you play. The next hand, you've never played it before and you'll never play it again in your life. But on the other hand, the problems you've solved in the past are useful in solving the problems there. And you have to keep paying attention all the time. You can't coast."

And while Buffett doesn't think that everyone should necessarily get a college degree, he does strongly believe in the value of learning, as any good teacher would.

"Generally speaking, investing in yourself is the best thing you can do. Anything that improves your own talents. Nobody can take it away from you. They can run up huge deficits, the dollar can become worth far less, you can have all kinds of things happen. But if you've got talent yourself, and you maximize your talent, you've got a terrific asset."

[jitkiat]

jitkiat, head and shoulders on s&p, a bearish sign or confirming at least a short term bear?
Head & shoulder negated. S&P500 rebounded strongly off support at 875 due to funds flowing into banking stocks. Technically, we are back to neutral rangebound trading btn 875-925 on S&P500.

For property market, the buying crowd largely ignored the weak stock market & the MOF property tax proposal ... technically very bullish signs ...guess reassuring words (government don't see excessive speculation in the market and HDB resale price is stable) from Mr Mah Bow Tan help to fuel further speculation as well :D

[sabian]

JK

Time for you to put up your TA analysis using the local resale property index soon?:scared-4:

[durian]

IMHO, with the improved GDP number and direction of STI, it looks like over the next 6 months, we will see a strong rally in our property market. :)

[Localite]

Property market rallying. Volume surpassed Aug 2007 peak.

[Property_Owner]

Will we be heading for a correction??

[Honesty]

Will we be heading for a correction??

Govt warn.......:tsk-tsk: :tsk-tsk: :tsk-tsk: Singaporean cheong.......:tongue3: :tongue3: :tongue3:

I also don't what's the heading :confused: :confused: :confused:

Anyway, it depend on who do you want to trust.:beats-me-man: :beats-me-man: :beats-me-man:

[Localite]

Market has gone thru the roof. Apparently landed ppty prices also up. Buyers are biting even though prices up 20% in 3 months. Now it's not about greed. It's about fear of losing out on the bull run. Especially for owner occupied ppty. But I don't blame the buyers. Many of them needed to buy but have been waiting and waiting. Now all jumping in unison.

[xtink]

i think the bull run is quite real... everywhere seems to be giving good forecast now....even GDP up.

I guess the run will continue ...2 reasons (1) fear of missing it (2) IR on its way soon....if mkt is bullish now, then there is little reason ecomony will be worst off in 3 years...

[Honesty]

i think the bull run is quite real... everywhere seems to be giving good forecast now....even GDP up.

I guess the run will continue ...2 reasons (1) fear of missing it (2) IR on its way soon....if mkt is bullish now, then there is little reason ecomony will be worst off in 3 years...

Is this a real bull run???

Think again!!!!

How much we need to pay for our housing loan per month???

What is our nett pay???

In genenal, If most people can afford $4,000 to $5,000 per month for housing loan, than is a real bull run.

Job security + Pay rise + Good fundamental on econonmy = BULL RUN

[teddybear]

Sure, bull run already lah! See, so many people already can afford HDB flats and even fresh graduates can afford condos (not to mention HDB flats) - nobody seems troubled about the worst economic recession since 2nd world war judging by the hot property sales means they have no worry about jobs or anything. Talk about private properties and these are only meant for the top 15% earners and foreigners, the rest of 85% can easily afford HDB right? :cheers1:


Is this a real bull run???

Think again!!!!

How much we need to pay for our housing loan per month???

What is our nett pay???

In genenal, If most people can afford $4,000 to $5,000 per month for housing loan, than is a real bull run.

Job security + Pay rise + Good fundamental on econonmy = BULL RUN

[Regulators]

best is be ur own boss n gv urself pay raise. i have to start giving myself a payrise soon...haha...truth is i never actually calculate my pay for the past 8yrs so long as i have 6 digits to bank in untouchd every mth.
Is this a real bull run???

Think again!!!!

How much we need to pay for our housing loan per month???

What is our nett pay???

In genenal, If most people can afford $4,000 to $5,000 per month for housing loan, than is a real bull run.

Job security + Pay rise + Good fundamental on econonmy = BULL RUN

[Regulators]

:scared-3: sorry lah how can i earn mre than PAP MP, i earn only 5digits a mth lah.

[vin002]

Market has gone thru the roof. Apparently landed ppty prices also up. Buyers are biting even though prices up 20% in 3 months. Now it's not about greed. It's about fear of losing out on the bull run. Especially for owner occupied ppty. But I don't blame the buyers. Many of them needed to buy but have been waiting and waiting. Now all jumping in unison.

I agree, too many waited and missed the boat earlier on. All have 2003 in mind while now is already 2009.

[vin002]

Is this a real bull run???

Think again!!!!

How much we need to pay for our housing loan per month???

What is our nett pay???

In genenal, If most people can afford $4,000 to $5,000 per month for housing loan, than is a real bull run.

Job security + Pay rise + Good fundamental on econonmy = BULL RUN

If you are talking about mass market property, a lot of people can still afford. A working couple will have about $2000 cpf to contribute for monthly installment. The excess will be via cash if necessary.

If you are talking about affording $4000 to $5000 per month for housing loan, this is usually high ended property where the rich can afford. Why they are call rich? It is for you to understand now why they can still afford under current uncertain economy situation.

This is totally different league and mentality.

[proud owner]

If you are talking about mass market property, a lot of people can still afford. A working couple will have about $2000 cpf to contribute for monthly installment. The excess will be via cash if necessary.

If you are talking about affording $4000 to $5000 per month for housing loan, this is usually high ended property where the rich can afford. Why they are call rich? It is for you to understand now why they can still afford under current uncertain economy situation.

This is totally different league and mentality.

is River gate high end ?
is Park Infinia ( newton area) high end ?
is a 2000 sqft unit in pasir panjang ..at 750 psf ..will be over 1.5 mio ..79 pct will alrady over 1 mio ..i believe last year a clementiwood unit LH 3000 sqft was sold at 600 over psf ..thats 1.8 mio
is it high end project ?

these projexts the mortgages are easily 5k a mth

so long as your loan amount is over 1 mio .. its easily 4k a mth ..

u think the really rich will buy Clementiwood ? or anything in PAsir panjang ?

[SL]

There are many many people who can afford 4-5k monthly payment.. it does not take a lot to make that much for a graduate after working for 4 years. If a couple can each make that money, then it is really simple for cough out that sum per month.

[cheerful]

There are many many people who can afford 4-5k monthly payment.. it does not take a lot to make that much for a graduate after working for 4 years. If a couple can each make that money, then it is really simple for cough out that sum per month.

Guess that also depends on the professional lah .. it's really genralization leh .... 4-5K monthly installment not exactly a small sum though maybe also not big for others .... :p

[jitkiat]

Guess that also depends on the professional lah .. it's really genralization leh .... 4-5K monthly installment not exactly a small sum though maybe also not big for others .... :p
Mr Cheerful is right. One couple I know, husband in audit, wife in insurance fund mgmt, worked for about 8 years, last year bought a semi-D in East Coast. Also in IT sector, if you don't mind working everyday till 9/10pm, your monthly salary can be very high after 3/4 years until you cannot buy new HDB. Certain sectors like electronics/manufacturing are not so good.

[dtrax]

Mr Cheerful is right. One couple I know, husband in audit, wife in insurance fund mgmt, worked for about 8 years, last year bought a semi-D in East Coast. Also in IT sector, if you don't mind working everyday till 9/10pm, your monthly salary can be very high after 3/4 years until you cannot buy new HDB. Certain sectors like electronics/manufacturing are not so good.

lol its called work-life balance... earn so much and slog day n nite, of cse surplus money muz pamper with better living standards

[vin002]

u think the really rich will buy Clementiwood ? or anything in PAsir panjang ?

Why not? Although I do agree that the super rich may not. But I am referring to is as long as you can afford $1m property, you are consider rich. Otherwise, how are you going to service your property.

I do agree that not many people can afford but that doesn't equate to only few can.

[forte]

There are many many people who can afford 4-5k monthly payment.. it does not take a lot to make that much for a graduate after working for 4 years. If a couple can each make that money, then it is really simple for cough out that sum per month.

I believe currently demand are really driven by the upgraders for those mass market project. Most probably already fully paid up their HDB which on resale may worth 300-400k. So even for a $1MM project after the initial 20% and selling their HDB only need a loan of $400k...should be pretty affordably for a dual income couple

[dtrax]

Why not? Although I do agree that the super rich may not. But I am referring to is as long as you can afford $1m property, you are consider rich. Otherwise, how are you going to service your property.

I do agree that not many people can afford but that doesn't equate to only few can.

ya you are generalizing... buyer profiles are not always the same. My mom's frend stay in landed @ 6th ave oso bot a 3bedder at balmeg

[Regulators]

:scared-4: Balmeg beside 18 gates of hell????



ya you are generalizing... buyer profiles are not always the same. My mom's frend stay in landed @ 6th ave oso bot a 3bedder at balmeg

[focus]

ya you are generalizing... buyer profiles are not always the same. My mom's frend stay in landed @ 6th ave oso bot a 3bedder at balmeg

And someone in HDB can be buying a Sail@Marina for investment..


So dont generalized! :)

[Regulators]

i know an auntie who used to rent a hdb flat who bought the sail as a first owner....



And someone in HDB can be buying a Sail@Marina for investment..


So dont generalized! :)

[dtrax]

i know an auntie who used to rent a hdb flat who bought the sail as a first owner....

no wonder i see aunties when i was @ the sail..kekeke :scared-4:

[jitkiat]

We should be thankful. The SP500 narrowly escaped the threat of bear. First of all, it rebounded off the all important 200day moving average. Secondly, it escaped the dreaded "head & shoulder pattern". Thirdly, the 3 day advance cut through the temporary downtrend. Goldman Sachs, Intel & Whitney saved the days. With this sudden reversal, we are back to testing the strong resistance at 946. The soon-to-occur golden cross (100d MA line above 200d MA line) will definitely help in overall sentiment to test the 946 again.

[wqmai]

We should be thankful. The SP500 narrowly escaped the threat of bear. First of all, it rebounded off the all important 200day moving average. Secondly, it escaped the dreaded "head & shoulder pattern". Thirdly, the 3 day advance cut through the temporary downtrend. Goldman Sachs, Intel & Whitney saved the days. With this sudden reversal, we are back to testing the strong resistance at 946. The soon-to-occur golden cross (100d MA line above 200d MA line) will definitely help in overall sentiment to test the 946 again.

Very good. My target is to starting shorting S&P at 1550. :)

[ocoloco79]

hi, so should we buy now or next year will be a better year to buy?

[wqmai]

hi, so should we buy now or next year will be a better year to buy?

Buy what???

[proud owner]

hi, so should we buy now or next year will be a better year to buy?


one morning in nov 2005 .. i woke up ..with a strange urge to buy property ..

i started looking ..very actively .. studying location, growth in that area, price, size, psf etc etc and most importantly .. how much $$ i have , cash, CPF, credit standing..

in march 2006, on my birthday, i bought a PH 2300 sqft ... at 1mio

in june 2006, i bought a 10 yr old terrace ..tored it down and rebuild to a brand new model house..

both properties i took a loan ..wasnt very good rate at that time 3.66 pct ..

fortunately and very quickly ..prices started to soar .. in 2008 ..my neighbour's terrace was sold ..at 2 mio .. original 11 yr old house ..
i know how much my brand new house is worth ..

in 2008 i had an offer to buy over my PH with a very decent profit..about 800k ..but i wanted to keep it..cos my wife loved it .. for its size and lay out ..

i sold my existing condo which i have lived in for 7 yrs ..and moved into the hosue .. was able to let go above what i purchased in 1997, TOP 1999 ... lucky

when i got news of my posting to NY in 2009 .. i felt i could not manage renting out a house and a condo with no one here to manage it ..

so we decided to sell the PH .. the price had fallen ..to only 500k profit ..

well ..its still a profit ..

the house has been rented out ..at a very good price ..2 yr contract ..at over 6 pct yield ..


on hind sight .. if i sell my PH now, it would be a better profit ..

the fact is ..prices in spore now has gone so crazy ..they are as expensive as in Manhattan ..which doesnt make sense to me at all ..

we feel its better for us to buy something here instead ..while prices as still falling ..


my take is ...
if you can afford , and if you like it .. then BUY .. IF ever you have doubts, STAY OUT ...

[gfoo]

wah lau your pattern quite similar to mine leh. hey i'm eyeing a unit at river road just off the turnpike, with views of the mh skyline - abt 2 yrs old, usd350psf. is that locale any good?

[proud owner]

wah lau your pattern quite similar to mine leh. hey i'm eyeing a unit at river road just off the turnpike, with views of the mh skyline - abt 2 yrs old, usd350psf. is that locale any good?

on roosevelt island ?

transport not very conveinet leh

Upp east (UE) used to be the prime favorites.. not anymore

midtown west, clinton, chelsea, greenwich ...very popular now

and the main metro lines all on this side of manhattan

brooklyn a few new projects coming up ..really nice ..and direct train into town

[Property_Owner]

in 2008 i had an offer to buy over my PH with a very decent profit..about 800k ..but i wanted to keep it..cos my wife loved it .. for its size and lay out ..

so we decided to sell the PH .. the price had fallen ..to only 500k profit ..

well ..its still a profit ..

on hind sight .. if i sell my PH now, it would be a better profit ..

the fact is ..prices in spore now has gone so crazy ..they are as expensive as in Manhattan ..which doesnt make sense to me at all ..



Proud, ask you. You mention prices here is crazy. So as a buyer for e PH you will feel prices too high, seller is crazy asking too much right?
but as a seller why care so much, as long as make GOOD profit and buyer willing to pay I sell. If not just rent out or hold.

So to me it's where are you staying at. As a buyer's postion or seller's.

[proud owner]

Proud, ask you. You mention prices here is crazy. So as a buyer for e PH you will feel prices too high, seller is crazy asking too much right?
but as a seller why care so much, as long as make GOOD profit and buyer willing to pay I sell. If not just rent out or hold.

So to me it's where are you staying at. As a buyer's postion or seller's.

i am comparing city to city
spore is not yet a cosmopolitan .. yet prices is almost the same as NY Manhattan ..
theres so much more diversity here ..so much more to offer ..
more than a Durian theatre, more than a copied Singapore Flyer, more than a casino, ..
the Metro here maybe old, but its very efficient.. libraries, museums .. plays, concerts, this is a true cosmo, ...
sngapreo is a mini mini cosmo in the making ..all squeezed close together ..
so really only orchard = manhatan, london, paris ..

tell me why should OCR trade at 1300 psf ?
why should east coast projects launched at 1500-1800 psf ?

its too high ..

[Tony Blair]

NY manhattan crime rate very high.Rape robbery murder..everyday.

[teddybear]

:scared-1: :scared-3:


NY manhattan crime rate very high.Rape robbery murder..everyday.

[Bishan Kid]

i am comparing city to city
spore is not yet a cosmopolitan .. yet prices is almost the same as NY Manhattan ..
theres so much more diversity here ..so much more to offer ..
more than a Durian theatre, more than a copied Singapore Flyer, more than a casino, ..
the Metro here maybe old, but its very efficient.. libraries, museums .. plays, concerts, this is a true cosmo, ...
sngapreo is a mini mini cosmo in the making ..all squeezed close together ..
so really only orchard = manhatan, london, paris ..

tell me why should OCR trade at 1300 psf ?
why should east coast projects launched at 1500-1800 psf ?

its too high ..

Yes, Manhattan is impressive and I particularly love 5th Avenue , diamond street, Broadway, ,Chinatown,Wall Street,Central Park, little Italy,Trump Tower,upper Manhattan- campus of U Columbia & Church in Harlem.

Bergdorf Goodman store is real nice.
I will not take a walk from hotel Plaza to Broadway after 9 p.m. Overall , no city can compare to Manhattan for her diversity and vibrance.

[Property_Owner]

With majority of units going at about $1,000psf or below for Freehold, Hilltop Living with MRT right at the foot of the hill, it is not surprising to surpass more than 100 units sold in just TWO weekends

Gotten this sms from a agent. What kind of pricing:doh:

[jitkiat]

You have $$$ now, would you invest in China or NYC? Jim Rogers chose to sell off his US properties and switch to stay in Singapore & invest in China. Singapore may be as expensive as Manhattan ... but remember, there is always reason why something is priced that way which factors in political stability, land scarcity, currency stability, personal safety, education ... if you think now is the best time to invest in London/Manhattan then no one can stop you but they are also people who think US/London will be in for a long term decline in economic power.

[housewife]

With majority of units going at about $1,000psf or below for Freehold, Hilltop Living with MRT right at the foot of the hill, it is not surprising to surpass more than 100 units sold in just TWO weekends
Gotten this sms from a agent. What kind of pricing:doh:
which project was he referring to? Balmeg?

[Bishan Kid]

You have $$$ now, would you invest in China or NYC? Jim Rogers chose to sell off his US properties and switch to stay in Singapore & invest in China. Singapore may be as expensive as Manhattan ... but remember, there is always reason why something is priced that way which factors in political stability, land scarcity, currency stability, personal safety, education ... if you think now is the best time to invest in London/Manhattan then no one can stop you but they are also people who think US/London will be in for a long term decline in economic power.

Anyday, anytime, Singapore!!

Most of the condos in Singapore are fully equipped with pool , tennis court, landscape and some with putting green too.Maintenance for condos is relatively cheap as compare.......to NY apartments with car park lot and security.Hardly u can find full condos facilities.
High crime rate is the key.
Very safe to raise a family, medical and schooling are relatively reasonable in Singapore.
Manhattan is fanastic place to work and play.Retired too if you have enough cash.Christmas is magical.

I was amused by their body check for gun if u visit the joints.

[Regulators]

property prices in singapore are rather controlled as 90% of people owning homes here. we have yet to reach the dizzying heights of property prices in hong kong but we are on the way there. Land scarcity is good enough reason for people to park their money in singapore property.


You have $$$ now, would you invest in China or NYC? Jim Rogers chose to sell off his US properties and switch to stay in Singapore & invest in China. Singapore may be as expensive as Manhattan ... but remember, there is always reason why something is priced that way which factors in political stability, land scarcity, currency stability, personal safety, education ... if you think now is the best time to invest in London/Manhattan then no one can stop you but they are also people who think US/London will be in for a long term decline in economic power.

[Regulators]

It is the one beside 18 gates of hell...:scared-2:



which project was he referring to? Balmeg?

[wqmai]

NY manhattan crime rate very high.Rape robbery murder..everyday.

Compare to brooklyn and the rest, Manhanttan is considered quite safe liao la. Actually, I like Canada much more. Living near Niagara Fall at Canada is shiok. Or downtown Toronto whereby a lot of Chinese is located. I would say life there is much better than USA.

[Regulators]

just wondering if there are many dead bodies thrown into niagara falls?



Compare to brooklyn and the rest, Manhanttan is considered quite safe liao la. Actually, I like Canada much more. Living near Niagara Fall at Canada is shiok. Or downtown Toronto whereby a lot of Chinese is located. I would say life there is much better than USA.

[proud owner]

NY manhattan crime rate very high.Rape robbery murder..everyday.

NY is THE safest state in the entire USA .. according to US govt report


i walk all the time be it broadway , 5th Ave ...

i will avoid anything from 100 st and higher ... Harlem

[apple3]

NY is THE safest state in the entire USA .. according to US govt report


i walk all the time be it broadway , 5th Ave ...

i will avoid anything from 100 st and higher ... Harlem

Hey pal, seems like the whole kampong know you are in nyc. Anyway just curious, from where you are staying, how often you hear police or ambulance siren in the night? Say in a week?

[proud owner]

Hey pal, seems like the whole kampong know you are in nyc. Anyway just curious, from where you are staying, how often you hear police or ambulance siren in the night? Say in a week?


every night .. ambulance ,, fire truck ... police car not so much

but when theres event... road closure ..alot of police ..

[jitkiat]

Time to increase stock position. HK/SG/ShangHai/Korean cracked new highs for 2009. Hong Kong broken 19,000 resistance, Singapore broken 2,400 resistance. High chance S&P500 can clear 946 resistance given the frenzy buying in Asia today. SG Property stocks still underperforming STI due to recent correction ... guess punters now a bit wary of government intervention after the income tax scare, need more good news in the luxury segment other than Simon Cheong buying GCB

[J-Dog]

It is crazy and unsustainable what is happenning on the market !
Within a week I had 4 differet offers on one of my prime property in RV . one higher then another . It is coming to 07' level . so I could not resist and sold it and signed OTP . banked the cheque . and guess what ? next day another agent called me offering higher ..
The queston: Is there any way around it to cancell OTP which was signed 2 days ago and to sell to the other party ? or is it too late ?
Anyhow I have made some good money out of this property and now feel extremely bearish , the market will have to crash and very soon .
May be I will sell my other property too if the price get higher , why keep when can rent so cheap-cheap :)) and then buy cheaper on correction .

[kenkaw]

The queston: Is there any way around it to cancell OTP which was signed 2 days ago and to sell to the other party ? or is it too late ? ...I'm not sure what legal options you have but as a matter of integrity and principle, you shouldn't be trying to cancel an OTP that you have given in pursuit of a higher offer. Makes a farce of the whole concept of an OTP. :tsk-tsk:

[wqmai]

I'm not sure what legal options you have but as a matter of integrity and principle, you shouldn't be trying to cancel an OTP that you have given in pursuit of a higher offer. Makes a farce of the whole concept of an OTP. :tsk-tsk:

Signing OTP itself is a contract already. Think the other party can sue for whatever losses he suffered, if I am not wrong. No point la. Just for slightly higher price go through all these trouble, in the end you may loss even more. :D :D :D

[Property_Owner]

It is crazy and unsustainable what is happenning on the market !
Within a week I had 4 differet offers on one of my prime property in RV . one higher then another . It is coming to 07' level . so I could not resist and sold it and signed OTP . banked the cheque . and guess what ? next day another agent called me offering higher ..
The queston: Is there any way around it to cancell OTP which was signed 2 days ago and to sell to the other party ? or is it too late ?
Anyhow I have made some good money out of this property and now feel extremely bearish , the market will have to crash and very soon .
May be I will sell my other property too if the price get higher , why keep when can rent so cheap-cheap :)) and then buy cheaper on correction .

Ya. Sell now and wait till RG hit 900psf and re enter again. Repeat this over n over again

[bargain hunter]

cannot, 900psf not low enough, J-Dog said 800psf by year end or he will chop mah.



Ya. Sell now and wait till RG hit 900psf and re enter again. Repeat this over n over again

[jitkiat]

規模達300億美元的南韓主權基金韓國投資公司(KIC)表示，將在今年較後時間增加其組合中股權投資比例，並會以美國及亞洲為目標。

KIC首席投資官Scott Kalb稱，債市投資回報不大可能再跑贏股市，因此會將資金轉投股市，擬在今年底前將持有的「傳統」投資比例由目前40%提高至50%

Korean Investment Corp to increase allocation of funds to stock from 40% to 50% later this year, target at US/Asian market ....

[Lord Anus]

Anyhow I have made some good money out of this property and now feel extremely bearish , the market will have to crash and very soon .

therein lies the reason why some people are bearish and some people are bullish.:) it is all about vestedness.

[J-Dog]

Well, it is 6 month to go till the end of the year .. it will show who is right and who will laugh last .. :)) The market is very and extremely unsastainable .. ppl are nuts . and that is good for us .. gives us a chance to buy more and more properties :) for wonderfull retirement and stress free easy life ..

[blackswan]

規模達300億美元的南韓主權基金韓國投資公司(KIC)表示，將在今年較後時間增加其組合中股權投資比例，並會以美國及亞洲為目標。

KIC首席投資官Scott Kalb稱，債市投資回報不大可能再跑贏股市，因此會將資金轉投股市，擬在今年底前將持有的「傳統」投資比例由目前40%提高至50%

Korean Investment Corp to increase allocation of funds to stock from 40% to 50% later this year, target at US/Asian market ....

Remember its the year in early 2008 where China Investment Company CIC or something like that say they are going to deploy their reserve more efficiently, and one of the super bullish branch manager commneted that "if they drop 1% of their reserve in Singapore (at that time around 1.78 trillion), they will drown us we their money and STI will burst pass 4000"

We know what happen after that.....
The most funniest part in this is that its Korea.....which is still an export junket and nearly went bankrupt again a few months ago due to high loan to deposit ratio and worst, their funding are largely wholesale.....

[blackswan]

Well, it is 6 month to go till the end of the year .. it will show who is right and who will laugh last .. :)) The market is very and extremely unsastainable .. ppl are nuts . and that is good for us .. gives us a chance to buy more and more properties :) for wonderfull retirement and stress free easy life ..

Share your sentiments.......there is still 5 1/2 months left.......a lot of things still can happen within this period of time.......

Lets keep our fingers cross.

[jitkiat]

Share your sentiments.......there is still 5 1/2 months left.......a lot of things still can happen within this period of time.......

Lets keep our fingers cross.

If stock market is a future indicator (say 6m), basically market forces not seeing any crash that can happen within 2009 so far. It is just a probability game.

[kalumder]

I made quite a bit of gains in the stockmarket over the last few months, much more than I expected. It is time to put my money where my mouth is. Since I am now more bearish than ever on Singapore property, it is time to take some of the profits and look at shorting some property stocks.

[blackswan]

If stock market is a future indicator (say 6m), basically market forces not seeing any crash that can happen within 2009 so far. It is just a probability game.

The chart also give very bullish signal during Tech Bubble and before China collapsed (which pull down STI, HSI). The chart for these event is widely available. A bullish chart doesn't mean anything, in particular, it doesn't mean there will be no crash.

[J-Dog]

Look what is happenning in US and this is not Detroit !! This is Florida !!!!
When the whole world is bleeding why do you think Sing properties will flourish ?
--------------------------------------------------------
How to Get 20% a Year Out of Your Property ??


"Of all of our travels, the Seven Sisters Inn is by far the best we have seen," says a guest.

The Seven Sisters Inn was built in 1888, using Victorian architecture...

Bonnie Morehardt and her husband Ken Oden restored the inn in 1986. They did such a fine job, the Florida Trust Historic Preservation Society judged the Seven Sisters the "Best Restoration Project" and listed it on the National Register of Historic Places.
The Seven Sisters Inn is in Ocala, Florida. It has eight guest rooms and an office. The rooms have different themes... There's an Argentina room, an Egypt room, and a China room, for example. Bonnie Morehardt and her husband were pilots. For 20 years, they traveled the world collecting Egyptian-themed art, custom armoires, and Oriental rugs to decorate each of their rooms.

"I hand-picked everything for each room," Morehardt said. The rooms rent for around $200 a night.

Today, the Seven Sisters Inn is famous across the country as one of the finest bed and breakfasts in America. Here's the thing: The owners weren't able to cover their mortgage costs... and this week, the bank will sell the Seven Sisters Inn in an online auction.

The auction started two weeks ago. It ends in two days. As I write, the current bid for the Seven Sisters is $117,500. You can also bid on the contents of the inn. For example, the current bid on an antique desk is $55. There's an oil painting going for $25.
You can follow the auction of the Seven Sisters Inn and its contents here.

Right now, as a result of the housing collapse and recession, banks are selling thousands of properties through auction all around the country.
These auctions are loaded with bargain properties. One of the properties up for auction is only nine years old, in great condition, and in a very desirable location. I asked the owner of a property-management company about it... He told me it would generate $30,000 a year in rental income. The current bid for this property is $152,500. That's a 20% rental yield at current prices.

To earn a 20% yield from the Seven Sisters Inn, at $200 per room, you'd only have to host 118 guests a year.

PM for the website of the auction house .
So why settle for 2-3% annum on curren Sing properties ? It's NUTS !!!!

[jitkiat]

That's it, S&P500 is confirmed to be above 946-950 resistance (HK 19,000, STI 2,400). NASDAQ has been up 12 days continuously. Solid.

U.S. stocks are rallying after a bigger-than-expected jump in sales of existing homes. The National Association of Realtors says sales of previously occupied homes rose 3.6 percent from May to June.

[jitkiat]

Breaking resistance with high volume, relatively stronger than other property stocks ... high end residential market confidence is back?

[jlrx]

Hi I'm back! I left this forum for almost a year.

I didn't dare to read anything posted here (or anything about property) for the past year because I think I have lost more than a million. :scared-3:

So I just ignored any news to do with property and concentrated on my work.

But recently the market seems to have recovered somewhat so I came back here to read the forums again.

If the market crashes again I'm going to disappear again. :millie:

[J-Dog]

You know what is the best indication for the market ? - The Japanese Yen ! when the yen stays strong that means the global market in uncertainty and quite negative , when it's weaken the market goes up and turns positive , same to real estate .. At the moment the yen is very strong and that gives me an indication that the market is well overpriced and there is no fundamentals to it , rental still going down .. a lot of my profeccional trader friends keep saying "we do not understand this " which is tells that's a buble .. will sure crash soon .. News paper put a lot of bullshit presure .. just few month ago they went "Oversupply, Crunch " and today all of a sudden " Undersuply , going to be shortage of units on the market , future is bright" .. e.t.c. What a bunch of clowns ..

[bargain hunter]

'Singapore is probably the only place on earth where there is a recession and unemployment but the property market is still so hot,’ said Mr Eugene Lim, associate director of property firm ERA Asia Pacific.

[durian]

Simple economics:

When interest rate is low, stock price and property assets will go up.

When money supply increases, inflation will kick in.

We need to face this reality over the next few years. Govt will then raise interest rate and cycle go all over again.

[Honesty]

You know what is the best indication for the market ? - The Japanese Yen ! when the yen stays strong that means the global market in uncertainty and quite negative , when it's weaken the market goes up and turns positive , same to real estate .. At the moment the yen is very strong and that gives me an indication that the market is well overpriced and there is no fundamentals to it , rental still going down .. a lot of my profeccional trader friends keep saying "we do not understand this " which is tells that's a buble .. will sure crash soon .. News paper put a lot of bullshit presure .. just few month ago they went "Oversupply, Crunch " and today all of a sudden " Undersuply , going to be shortage of units on the market , future is bright" .. e.t.c. What a bunch of clowns ..

Totally agreed, don't know what the hell is going on....No logic...:confused: :confused: :confused:

I pity those herd...:scared-3: :scared-3: :scared-3:How to sell their property the next time.

See people buy... they also buy...never do their sum...:scared-2: :scared-2:

To-date ( Jan to June 09 )there are about more than 8,000 new units sold by the developers. Imagine, 2 years down the road, there will alot alot of units going to TOP as developers is pushing back to delay the completion for next year, so come 2 years later it will be over supply again.

When the economy recovered, and what if the bank will to rise their interest rate, then it real "BIG" problem. I remember my interest rate increase from 3% to 8% in 1996, and I had to pay additional $900.00 every month just on interest alone.

Be careful...don't just buy it....think

[blackswan]

You know what is the best indication for the market ? - The Japanese Yen ! when the yen stays strong that means the global market in uncertainty and quite negative , when it's weaken the market goes up and turns positive , same to real estate .. At the moment the yen is very strong and that gives me an indication that the market is well overpriced and there is no fundamentals to it , rental still going down .. a lot of my profeccional trader friends keep saying "we do not understand this " which is tells that's a buble .. will sure crash soon .. News paper put a lot of bullshit presure .. just few month ago they went "Oversupply, Crunch " and today all of a sudden " Undersuply , going to be shortage of units on the market , future is bright" .. e.t.c. What a bunch of clowns ..

Clap Clap Clap
Can't agree more. The point is dun bother so much when the market when turn, more importantly is to get the direction right.

You might get the timing wrong for a couple of quarters but that's also only 6 months or so. But if the market does, turn, its most likely going to be a big turn so its okay not to do nothing for 6 months or so. Key is that when the mkt turn, does one have the cash to deploy.

[xtink]

half yr ago... everyone was slamming anyone who bought, says prices are going down down down...

half year later on, the reverse happened, and all these slammers still couldnt find a reason why it went up. probably some has also reversed its stand already

whether these buyers now are smarter or stupid in 6 months time, we shall then take another 6 months view later on in the future.

ultimately, the person who manages to take the money off the table has placed a good bet.

[andy]

whether these buyers now are smarter or stupid in 6 months time, we shall then take another 6 months view later on in the future.

ultimately, the person who manages to take the money off the table has placed a good bet.

Why 6 months? Market gone up 20% since Q1. Will it go up another 20% by Q4 or can it turn by next quarter?

[Water Lover]

I think this time round buyers going in with their eyes opened.

Many rich or those accumlated cash are scared of the financial products.

They knew that the cloud has not really cleared as yet but where else to
park their money. Don't forget comes end Dec 2010, no more guarantee bank deposit. Even if market down they have calculated their sum before going in. If market up hooraay, if market down wait loi.. Anyway market
cycle nowadays are short and unpredictable.

The only clue is how many more of these loaded ones still coming in b4 the momentum slows down...

With all the not so good news, particularly from the horses mouth, u think flippers dare to jump in blindly.:tsk-tsk:

[xtink]

i mean to say, those who buy now, whether they made the right move or not, nobody can tell now. I use 6 months as a time check horizon.

(as i have given the example that those who made the predictions six months ago were thoroughly wrong today).

it need not go up in a straight line continuously for 20%. even if is 1% increase or even stabilise for the next 6 months, the buyers now are not wrong either

disclaimer: me just trying to make some counter arguements. me too poor to chase the mkt price now. so not vested in any... except my hdb.. ;)

[blackswan]

Why 6 months? Market gone up 20% since Q1. Will it go up another 20% by Q4 or can it turn by next quarter?

The day the market goes up is 9th March, that's the day where markets around the world plunge into the 'Green Shoots' theory.

just before that the S&P500 is at 666 on the big figure. That's the lowest in 12 - 13 years. Thus market market is up around 4.5 months. If market can up so fast in 4.5 months, why can't market turn down faster in the same period???

If we refer to the chart for tech bubble burst, Asian financial crisis, SASRs, 911, and the current financial crisis, you will realized that the only consistent pattern was that market come down a lot faster then it goes up

[yowetan]

:doh: I am amazed with the current bull run in the property market. I find its unbelievable and it certianly making my dream of owning an apartment at a reasonable price a distant away from me now. I am looking for a resales unit but the price has gone up by at least 20-30% since march 09. I cannot believe we are having a recession now, yet the regulatory body is not doing something to curb this speculation....my god!

[J-Dog]

Well it makes me very nervous , I shorted SP500 and for a good reason , it is trading 12 times it's value , it destined to crash .. I think this time it will happen very fast : BIG BANG !!! and all the hell will brake loose !! This is another reason I sold one of my unit at good profit , if the market goes higher I will sell another one just to buy back at the basement sale :)
I offered for few units through Property Guru , for some even what they wanted , agents came back to me that owners up the prices , so good luck to them .. Even East Cost Lease Holds now asking 1600psf for some units which is absolutely nuts :)) But I kind of like that .. More herd mentality , more money for folks with brain to pay for big toys :))

[blackswan]

:doh: I am amazed with the current bull run in the property market. I find its unbelievable and it certianly making my dream of owning an apartment at a reasonable price a distant away from me now. I am looking for a resales unit but the price has gone up by at least 20-30% since march 09. I cannot believe we are having a recession now, yet the regulatory body is not doing something to curb this speculation....my god!

The point is why should the regulator comes in as these people are all adults, and surely there’s nobody there to put a knife or pistol on their head.

The government can’t always come in and regulate this and that as that’s not their job. Their job is to set the necessary ground rules so that there is a level playing field, and if anyone is perceived to have broken the law, that’s where they will step in.

Like what J-Dog said, the higher the prices goes, the better for people whom have the view that things are going to take a drastic downturn. That’s because there are more and more people whom are hook to a million dollar loan.

[august]

:doh: I am amazed with the current bull run in the property market. I find its unbelievable and it certianly making my dream of owning an apartment at a reasonable price a distant away from me now. I am looking for a resales unit but the price has gone up by at least 20-30% since march 09. I cannot believe we are having a recession now, yet the regulatory body is not doing something to curb this speculation....my god!

speculators? why cannot be genuine home owners meh? u joker lah ~

i may dream of owning Marq, but 4k psf is out my reach, shld i go blame others for my broken dreams? :o

[teddybear]

Trying to curb price based on your view property prices are now expensive is not the regulatory body's job (i.e. your view of expensive or not is immaterial). The fact that they are supposed to ensure stable and not run away prices and the fact that they have not done anything could also indicate that they are of the view that the current price is OK to them and there is no speculation and run-away prices? Does it occur to you that the fact that we have yet to emerge from a recession means that there is no bull run now and property prices transacted now are just recession prices? (i.e. prices have more way to go up since current transaction prices are considered the recession price). :cheers1:


:doh: I am amazed with the current bull run in the property market. I find its unbelievable and it certianly making my dream of owning an apartment at a reasonable price a distant away from me now. I am looking for a resales unit but the price has gone up by at least 20-30% since march 09. I cannot believe we are having a recession now, yet the regulatory body is not doing something to curb this speculation....my god!

[cheerful]

yalor ... financial products muz protect, property muz protect ... how to regulate so many things .... thot shld be buyers beware mah .. no meh?


The point is why should the regulator comes in as these people are all adults, and surely there’s nobody there to put a knife or pistol on their head.

The government can’t always come in and regulate this and that as that’s not their job. Their job is to set the necessary ground rules so that there is a level playing field, and if anyone is perceived to have broken the law, that’s where they will step in.

Like what J-Dog said, the higher the prices goes, the better for people whom have the view that things are going to take a drastic downturn. That’s because there are more and more people whom are hook to a million dollar loan.

[xtink]

then in future there would be regulatory bodies for all bloody thing you do or buy... why underwear so expensive poor people cannot afford, and char kway teow becomes so expensive such that $5 also no "harm"....;)

[nobrainer32007]

come on what recession are we talking about? :doh:

take a walk at ION and you will know what i mean.

the foreigners esp indons are happily spending their $$$ in singapore buying up branded goods.

property? less than 2000sf they are actually not so keen.

foreigners have not yet returned in a big way but market already so hot.

can you imagine the price level when these cash rich foreigners/private equity funds come back in a big way like in 2007? who can be sure that they won't?

liquidity, low deposit rate, risk aversion to financial products and impact of stimulus measures by many governments globally...

don't under-estimate the combined effect.

for singapore, don't also under-estimate the IR effect in 2010.

for those who miss the boat, my advice is:-

just sit one side quietly and wait for the next cycle.
instead of shouting around that market is collapsing...since begining of the year

:doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh:






:doh: I am amazed with the current bull run in the property market. I find its unbelievable and it certianly making my dream of owning an apartment at a reasonable price a distant away from me now. I am looking for a resales unit but the price has gone up by at least 20-30% since march 09. I cannot believe we are having a recession now, yet the regulatory body is not doing something to curb this speculation....my god!

[vin002]

come on what recession are we talking about? :doh:

take a walk at ION and you will know what i mean.

the foreigners esp indons are happily spending their $$$ in singapore buying up branded goods.

property? less than 2000sf they are actually not so keen.

foreigners have not yet returned in a big way but market already so hot.

can you imagine the price level when these cash rich foreigners/private equity funds come back in a big way like in 2007? who can be sure that they won't?

liquidity, low deposit rate, risk aversion to financial products and impact of stimulus measures by many governments globally...

don't under-estimate the combined effect.

for singapore, don't also under-estimate the IR effect in 2010.

for those who miss the boat, my advice is:-

just sit one side quietly and wait for the next cycle.
instead of shouting around that market is collapsing...since begining of the year

:doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh: :doh:

Totally agree. And if anyone disagree, please set a timeline like somebody who has mentioned end of this year. For me, I am sure that we will be doing well for this year and very well next year if no other crisis happened.

[cheerful]

LOL .... wat a GOOD & precise one about missing the boat!!

Yup, u nvr know ... maybe the PRC oso contributing to this buying frenzy (but maybe in an unexpected big way) :p

[yowetan]

I believe by year end, many will jump from their condos....the price is crazy now. Its so crazy to see people queuing for a project and it is heavenly priced at 1kpsf. This is madness.:doh:

[teddybear]

As far as I know, biggest buyers are Malaysians & Indonesians, but now more and more PRCs, Indians, even Russians, Arabs etc are buying.


LOL .... wat a GOOD & precise one about missing the boat!!

Yup, u nvr know ... maybe the PRC oso contributing to this buying frenzy (but maybe in an unexpected big way) :p

[Honesty]

Totally agree. And if anyone disagree, please set a timeline like somebody who has mentioned end of this year. For me, I am sure that we will be doing well for this year and very well next year if no other crisis happened.

Imagine, if you buy a 3 rm property at 1,200 sq ft and @ $1,000 psf, how much you think you need to pay for the 20%. It is $240,000, from cash or cpf, than you loan $960,000 from bank @ interest rate of est 2.6% (aveage over 3 years) your monthly repayment will be about $5,600 per month.:doh: :doh: :doh:

Unless you pay is about $16,000 per month ( 35% of your income ) than you will be able to afford this 1.2 million house.

It is good to see the market go all the way up and up and up....but who can really afford.

How much we think we can sell to the next buyer?:confused: :confused: :confused:

If the interest rate go up, I really can't imagine what will happen.....:mad: :mad: :mad:

[yowetan]

Imagine, if you buy a 3 rm property at 1,200 sq ft and @ $1,000 psf, how much you think you need to pay for the 20%. It is $240,000, from cash or cpf, than you loan $960,000 from bank @ interest rate of est 2.6% (aveage over 3 years) your monthly repayment will be about $5,600 per month.:doh: :doh: :doh:

Unless you pay is about $16,000 per month ( 35% of your income ) than you will be able to afford this 1.2 million house.

It is good to see the market go all the way up and up and up....but who can really afford.

How much we think we can sell to the next buyer?:confused: :confused: :confused:

If the interest rate go up, I really can't imagine what will happen.....:mad: :mad: :mad:


This world is comprise of mad and greedy people. Thats why!

[jlrx]

Imagine, if you buy a 3 rm property at 1,200 sq ft and @ $1,000 psf, how much you think you need to pay for the 20%. It is $240,000, from cash or cpf, than you loan $960,000 from bank @ interest rate of est 2.6% (aveage over 3 years) your monthly repayment will be about $5,600 per month.:doh: :doh: :doh:

Unless you pay is about $16,000 per month ( 35% of your income ) than you will be able to afford this 1.2 million house.

It is good to see the market go all the way up and up and up....but who can really afford.

How much we think we can sell to the next buyer?:confused: :confused: :confused:

If the interest rate go up, I really can't imagine what will happen.....:mad: :mad: :mad:

The interest rate is lower than 2.6%. Now I am using SIBOR-pegged loan ... only 1 point something percent.

The interest rate will not go up because we are in a very bad recession. The governments all over the world are keeping interest rates low and flooding the market with money because this recession is very bad ...

The day the governments raise interest rates, that means the recession is over and the sun has come out.

I think many people are buying now because they have missed the last boat and spent the past few years complaining.

Now that the boat has come down again, and if they miss it again, then they have no more credibility left as a person.

It is now a matter of "personal credibility", rather than about money.

If you buy and the price goes downhill, you will still find many sympathetic ears amongst your cousins, colleagues, uncles and aunties during Chinese New Year gatherings ... They will say "You are not alone, my house also went down ... same here ... I lose even more than you" so you can still spend Chinese New Year together and be "one of them". In fact the recent CNY gatherings we were all competing to see who lost more money. :scared-4:

On the other hand, if you don't buy and the price goes up again, after complaining to your cousins, nephews, colleagues and former schoolmates over the past few CNY about "missing the boat" and then now the prices have come down and you did not buy, you will not find any sympathetic ear anymore. You would also have lost all credibility as a person.

Hence what many people are buying now is not an investment in "property" but an investment in "social acceptance" in family and social gatherings.

[Honesty]

The interest rate is lower than 2.6%. Now I am using SIBOR-pegged loan ... only 1 point something percent.

The interest rate will not go up because we are in a very bad recession. The governments all over the world are keeping interest rates low and flooding the market with money because this recession is very bad ...

The day the governments raise interest rates, that means the recession is over and the sun has come out.

I think many people are buying now because they have missed the last boat and spent the past few years complaining.

Now that the boat has come down again, and if they miss it again, then they have no more credibility left as a person.

It is now a matter of "personal credibility", rather than about money.

If you buy and the price goes downhill, you will still find many sympathetic ears amongst your cousins, colleagues, uncles and aunties during Chinese New Year gatherings ... They will say "You are not alone, my house also went down ... same here ... I lose even more than you" so you can still spend Chinese New Year together and be "one of them". In fact the recent CNY gatherings we were all competing to see who lost more money. :scared-4:

On the other hand, if you don't buy and the price goes up again, after complaining to your cousins, nephews, colleagues and former schoolmates over the past few CNY about "missing the boat" and then now the prices have come down and you did not buy, you will not find any sympathetic ear anymore. You would also have lost all credibility as a person.

Hence what many people are buying now is not an investment in "property" but an investment in "social acceptance" in family and social gatherings.

Wow!!!! I like the way you express the feeling of those buyers....:p :p :p

GREAT...:D :D :D

Can't have any better answer...:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[Regulators]

What boat? Is it a sinking boat? I think govt is helping to hype up the pty market (see how the sale of caspian is linked to jurong lake district and developments in kallang is linked to some city fringe projects etc) for the purposes of saving troubled developers and helping them to offload their current stock. HDB prices have reached unimaginable heights (look at the pet DBSS projects and how hdb pxs move in Queenstown) and buyers do not see a great difference in pricing of mass market condos and hdbs which is the reason why some buyers are jumping into the boat. I am sitting here watching how the govt intelligently crafts and manipulate the pty market and we buyers, sellers and investors are the pawns on the big chess board....



The interest rate is lower than 2.6%. Now I am using SIBOR-pegged loan ... only 1 point something percent.

The interest rate will not go up because we are in a very bad recession. The governments all over the world are keeping interest rates low and flooding the market with money because this recession is very bad ...

The day the governments raise interest rates, that means the recession is over and the sun has come out.

I think many people are buying now because they have missed the last boat and spent the past few years complaining.

Now that the boat has come down again, and if they miss it again, then they have no more credibility left as a person.

It is now a matter of "personal credibility", rather than about money.

If you buy and the price goes downhill, you will still find many sympathetic ears amongst your cousins, colleagues, uncles and aunties during Chinese New Year gatherings ... They will say "You are not alone, my house also went down ... same here ... I lose even more than you" so you can still spend Chinese New Year together and be "one of them". In fact the recent CNY gatherings we were all competing to see who lost more money. :scared-4:

On the other hand, if you don't buy and the price goes up again, after complaining to your cousins, nephews, colleagues and former schoolmates over the past few CNY about "missing the boat" and then now the prices have come down and you did not buy, you will not find any sympathetic ear anymore. You would also have lost all credibility as a person.

Hence what many people are buying now is not an investment in "property" but an investment in "social acceptance" in family and social gatherings.

[august]

This world is comprise of mad and greedy people. Thats why!

aiya why u worry about them?
let them be mad and greedy and reap what they sow lah, why you want to save them? :D

[august]

What boat? Is it a sinking boat? I think govt is helping to hype up the pty market (see how the sale of caspian is linked to jurong lake district and developments in kallang is linked to some city fringe projects etc) for the purposes of saving troubled developers and helping them to offload their current stock. HDB prices have reached unimaginable heights (look at the pet DBSS projects and how hdb pxs move in Queenstown) and buyers do not see a great difference in pricing of mass market condos and hdbs which is the reason why some buyers are jumping into the boat. I am sitting here watching how the govt intelligently crafts and manipulate the pty market and we buyers, sellers and investors are the pawns on the big chess board....

look at the mini bonds saga and u know which side the pap garment stands on, definitely not on the side of the little people ~ :spliff:

[dmonddd]

advisable to buy completed project in prime location.

new projects are being launched by block. the experts are also cautious

[mightyleftfoot]

It's pure herd mentality. This will flushed out all those with cash and kiasu mentality.
What's left after this feeding frenzy will be pple who are more cautious and less risk takers.
Remember, most companies report flat results, meaning nobody will pay big bonuses at the end of the year, so $$ supply is tight.
And with supply still in excess, the prices will fall...
Timeline: +/- 12 mths

[kurby]

Property prices need to be supported by economic growth and income growth.

When both are missing, then are prices sustainable?

There is no argument that land prices in SG will go up since land is limited. The question is the rate of increase....will it go up 30% every year? Or will it be a gradual increase of say 5% every year?

GDP growth for SG at best is 6%, this year we are negative, so what is supporting the property prices??

[bargain hunter]

I have a question regarding whether for investment, is it better to invest in the stock market or properties?

My opinion is that the property market has rebounded a lot faster than the stock market and makes investing in stocks attractive relative to investing in properties currently. Dividend yields are also higher than rental yields currently.

If one is of the opinion that the economy is recovering, isn't it just as safe to invest in stocks as compared to properties? On a risk-adjusted basis, that makes stocks even more attractive because if the economy is not recovering, its so much easier to exit the stock market vs the property market.

[teddybear]

Simple lah. Income growth comes from the hot stock market and businesses that benefit from the recession. Many people made a lot of money from stocks and these businesses. Then, they transfer the money to buy properties while they are still cheap and probably made a killing again. These are the gurus who made all the money. Then, with all the money made in stocks and properties, they spend and spend like no tomorrow and you see GDP growth and economic growth that followed (by that time those still side-lined waiting to see economic growth start to invest, they start losing money (again!) and start to wonder why the economy is so strong but stock and property prices not going up after they invest). :D


Property prices need to be supported by economic growth and income growth.

When both are missing, then are prices sustainable?

There is no argument that land prices in SG will go up since land is limited. The question is the rate of increase....will it go up 30% every year? Or will it be a gradual increase of say 5% every year?

GDP growth for SG at best is 6%, this year we are negative, so what is supporting the property prices??

[EBD]

I have a question regarding whether for investment, is it better to invest in the stock market or properties?

My opinion is that the property market has rebounded a lot faster than the stock market and makes investing in stocks attractive relative to investing in properties currently. Dividend yields are also higher than rental yields currently.

If one is of the opinion that the economy is recovering, isn't it just as safe to invest in stocks as compared to properties? On a risk-adjusted basis, that makes stocks even more attractive because if the economy is not recovering, its so much easier to exit the stock market vs the property market.

Totally agree. Even during the exit for the door in 3Q/4Q you could still get to an exit with stocks. Even if the door had shrunk.

For property the door simply finished and you would be stuck.

The yields are also attractive or at least were for stocks vs property. No doubts on tax if sold at a profit within 3 years. Hidden costs are a minimum compared to property tax, maintainance fund for condo etc.... repair budget for apartment

I like property but it's no the only game in town.

As for new launches , the asking price is now totally not supported by any fundamental. Well, good look to those who bought.

If you are going to buy, as a previous poster noted, better to buy completed prime than new launches IMHO.

[andy]

Property prices need to be supported by economic growth and income growth.

When both are missing, then are prices sustainable?

There is no argument that land prices in SG will go up since land is limited. The question is the rate of increase....will it go up 30% every year? Or will it be a gradual increase of say 5% every year?

GDP growth for SG at best is 6%, this year we are negative, so what is supporting the property prices??

Well the stock market is the leading indicator and they have priced in a V-shape recovery. If corporate earnings shows that in the next 2 quartrs then the property prices are supported.

If not we will just go back to where we came from. So the bulls are betting on a 15-20% downside and possibly 20%-30% upside;-)

[dmonddd]

be cautious..property hunters who are trying to depress the property market with negative input. it may be a double edge sword...as you may be retrenched. exception for those retired with pensions, those with sufficient cash to settle purchase.

stock price dependent on co's future earnings.
asian crisis- some companies fold and shareholders are always at the back of the queue when it comes to liquidation

first to take dividends last to be paid.

slowdown in property....flippers die....developers cant collect to repay bank....bank take legal action...developer busted....stock price comes down.....investors caught.....bank presses for repayment....investors bankrupt....developers staff retrenched ...cant pay loans...banks ...etc

[qianfugui]

Totally agree. Even during the exit for the door in 3Q/4Q you could still get to an exit with stocks. Even if the door had shrunk.

For property the door simply finished and you would be stuck.

The yields are also attractive or at least were for stocks vs property. No doubts on tax if sold at a profit within 3 years. Hidden costs are a minimum compared to property tax, maintainance fund for condo etc.... repair budget for apartment

I like property but it's no the only game in town.

As for new launches , the asking price is now totally not supported by any fundamental. Well, good look to those who bought.

If you are going to buy, as a previous poster noted, better to buy completed prime than new launches IMHO.

Fully agreed with the above. Stocks is liquid and can be out at any moment.
Property game is out for me. I have bgt my ideal FH home in city-fringe in 2006 before IR winner announcement and had been staying.

No more investment in property for rental yieldls or future capital appreciation. The risks are all too clear as echoed by so many folks here. Only stocks investments can give you better returns in next 2/3 years.

;)

[moneymatters]

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/imagegallery/store/phpahu7h3.jpg Photos 1 of 1 http://www.channelnewsasia.com/images/dotline_240.gif
Marina Bay Financial Centre



SINGAPORE: The government is seeing some signs of speculation in the Singapore property market, according to National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan.

Speaking on the sidelines of the topping out ceremony of the Marina Bay Financial Centre on Wednesday morning, Mr Mah said the government is monitoring the situation.

He added that it is uncertain if the buying momentum seen in recent months can be sustained.

"The forecast is still for negative growth this year. Although it's not as negative as it was in the beginning of the year. I think there is still uncertainty... But what is important really is for all of us, all the players in the market, to make sure that the market remains healthy," said Mr Mah.

According to latest data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), sales of uncompleted private homes reached a record high of 1,825 units in June as improving sentiment in the market spurred homebuyers to snap up more units.

Mr Mah assured that there is adequate supply of units in the market for now and the government is prepared to release more land for sale if necessary.

On the Marina Bay Financial Centre, Mr Mah noted that it has already attracted over S$20 billion of private real estate investments from both local and international investors. About 61 per cent of space in the centre has been pre-leased.

Mr Mah also reiterated the government's commitment to the project, saying another S$1 billion in infrastructure works will be invested over the next 10 to 15 years. The figure is on top of the S$7.5 billion already invested in Marina Bay.

[kurby]

Yes, I believe market has priced in a V-shape recovery. The next 2 quarters will review if this is indeed true. Current quarters we are seeing corporate earnings which are better than expected, but if you read deeper, you will see that no doubt earnings has increased, revenue has not. The earnings are mainly supported by cost cutting measures.

Many people make money from stock market, but at the same time, many people also lose money in the stock market. The stock market is a zero sum game (though not exactly cause the exchanges always take a cut), someone win someone surely will lose.

[bargain hunter]

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/imagegallery/store/phpahu7h3.jpg Photos 1 of 1 http://www.channelnewsasia.com/images/dotline_240.gif
Marina Bay Financial Centre



SINGAPORE: The government is seeing some signs of speculation in the Singapore property market, according to National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan.

Speaking on the sidelines of the topping out ceremony of the Marina Bay Financial Centre on Wednesday morning, Mr Mah said the government is monitoring the situation.

He added that it is uncertain if the buying momentum seen in recent months can be sustained.

"The forecast is still for negative growth this year. Although it's not as negative as it was in the beginning of the year. I think there is still uncertainty... But what is important really is for all of us, all the players in the market, to make sure that the market remains healthy," said Mr Mah.

According to latest data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), sales of uncompleted private homes reached a record high of 1,825 units in June as improving sentiment in the market spurred homebuyers to snap up more units.

Mr Mah assured that there is adequate supply of units in the market for now and the government is prepared to release more land for sale if necessary.

On the Marina Bay Financial Centre, Mr Mah noted that it has already attracted over S$20 billion of private real estate investments from both local and international investors. About 61 per cent of space in the centre has been pre-leased.

Mr Mah also reiterated the government's commitment to the project, saying another S$1 billion in infrastructure works will be invested over the next 10 to 15 years. The figure is on top of the S$7.5 billion already invested in Marina Bay.

So now its official, government does see some speculation, any comments, those who said all genuine demand, economic recovery, buy now or never?

[jitkiat]

Stock market correction coming ... Shanghai down 5% today ....

[gfoo]

Originally from the Centro thread, reposting it here for the benefit of all.


i find it strange, why do u prime district owners always feel that rise in pty px must always be led by prime districts all the time? Could ths trend be slowly reversing whereby CCR pty pxs are stabalising while RCR n OCR are steadily increasing? IMO condos like Sail n MBR are artificially high n current pricing seems like forward pricing to me. Do those who bought the sail at 2kpsf seriously expect px to go up to 3kpsf when IR comes up? The Sail started off as a mass mkt condo in CCR n interior will always be mass mkt quality. The locatn for the sail may be fantastic to some but not everybody who goes to CBD for work likes to live in it.

In the height of the crisis, there was a 45% drop in prime prices off 2007 highs, compared to 15% for mass market. In this run up, mass market has recovered at 2007 prices and beyond +10%, while prime is still about -20% off 2007 highs.

It is hard to say exactly what's fair psf for marina bay condos. But this area remains the only area that the government has committed $7.5b in direct public infrastructure works, and they have committed another $1b this morning. This also is the only place where within a 100m radius you have access to 2 MRT stations, a manhattan-like 'central' park, the Gardens by the Bay, upper-tier shopping at the IR, MBFC prime offices, mid-tier shopping at the underground malls, waterfront boardwalks, pubs and restaurants at collyer, and can shoot rubber band at the fireworks station in the middle of the bay. 100m radius. I see this more as a lifestyle buy, rather than just to stay close to the office. I suspect down the road, this place could be quite manhattan-esque.

The Sail at peak was about $3500psf. If Centro and the new ones that just came out are asking for $1150psf just to be close to HDB flats and heartland amenities, then $3500psf is cheap. It's not about being atas, it's about pricing relativity.

Before anyone comes flaming me, note that i am not pushing my condo. I'm just asking you to think this question while you visit this URA site (http://www.ura.gov.sg/centralarea/) : "6 months ago i could have stayed in this area for the same price i am paying for ang mo kio HDB surroundings today. Wu hua boh?"

of course, i'll be more than happy if you also ask: "today ang mo kio is $1150psf. how much more should i offer for the sail?" - i will direct you to my agent :)

[Regulators]

7.5bil spent to spruce up marina area is to boost tourism? So r u telling us that just becoz more tourists visit the IR n casinos in D1, there4 the condos in D1 (regardless of whether it is luxury class or mass mkt quality) should be triple the prices of suburban condos? I thk those people who pay for the Sail at 2kpsf n those who pay for Amk at 1k psf r equally nuts.
Originally from the Centro thread, reposting it here for the benefit of all.



In the height of the crisis, there was a 45% drop in prime prices off 2007 highs, compared to 15% for mass market. In this run up, mass market has recovered at 2007 prices and beyond +10%, while prime is still about -20% off 2007 highs.

It is hard to say exactly what's fair psf for marina bay condos. But this area remains the only area that the government has committed $7.5b in direct public infrastructure works, and they have committed another $1b this morning. This also is the only place where within a 100m radius you have access to 2 MRT stations, a manhattan-like 'central' park, the Gardens by the Bay, upper-tier shopping at the IR, MBFC prime offices, mid-tier shopping at the underground malls, waterfront boardwalks, pubs and restaurants at collyer, and can shoot rubber band at the fireworks station in the middle of the bay. 100m radius. I see this more as a lifestyle buy, rather than just to stay close to the office. I suspect down the road, this place could be quite manhattan-esque.

The Sail at peak was about $3500psf. If Centro and the new ones that just came out are asking for $1150psf just to be close to HDB flats and heartland amenities, then $3500psf is cheap. It's not about being atas, it's about pricing relativity.

Before anyone comes flaming me, note that i am not pushing my condo. I'm just asking you to think this question while you visit this URA site (http://www.ura.gov.sg/centralarea/) : "6 months ago i could have stayed in this area for the same price i am paying for ang mo kio HDB surroundings today. Wu hua boh?"

of course, i'll be more than happy if you also ask: "today ang mo kio is $1150psf. how much more should i offer for the sail?" - i will direct you to my agent :)

[EBD]

Yes, I believe market has priced in a V-shape recovery. The next 2 quarters will review if this is indeed true. Current quarters we are seeing corporate earnings which are better than expected, but if you read deeper, you will see that no doubt earnings has increased, revenue has not. The earnings are mainly supported by cost cutting measures.

Many people make money from stock market, but at the same time, many people also lose money in the stock market. The stock market is a zero sum game (though not exactly cause the exchanges always take a cut), someone win someone surely will lose.

Stock is absolutely not a zero sum game.

Hold over time and you will generally increase in capital & dividend.
Zero sum is for inexperienced "traders" with 5 minute investment horizon.

Property is also not a sure win proposition.

As for earnings being better than expected. It just means they are better than awful. - which was the expectation. Many are still way down from highs.

[gfoo]

7.5bil spent to spruce up marina area is to boost tourism? So r u telling us that just becoz more tourists visit the IR n casinos in D1, there4 the condos in D1 (regardless of whether it is luxury class or mass mkt quality) should be triple the prices of suburban condos? I thk those people who pay for the Sail at 2kpsf n those who pay for Amk at 1k psf r equally nuts.

Nope, my argument is not about the IR or the casino. the $7.5b is spent on central park, promenade, gardens, water features, boardwalks, landscapes, underground connectors, watersports, security, transport & utilities - all public facilities.

A further $32b has been spent by Sands/Keppel/CheungKong on the IR, MBFC, ArtScience museum and the shopping malls. And then we have the $350m waterfront lifestyle facilities from the new remake of collyer quay all the way to one fullerton.

The IR/casino is only a piece of the puzzle, and even if we don't factor it in, that still leaves us with all the other entertainment, shopping, garden and recreation facilities, as well as the onefuller-collyer stretch. i don't even have to step a foot in the IR to have a great living.

And that's just the 180 degrees bay facing 100m radius. The other 180 degrees where lau pa sat, one shenton and where Singapore's tallest 'empire state building' wannabe is supposed to be has yet to be built.

The Sail admittedly has f@cked up finishing in the lifts landings, and the lifts themselves (shit, the lifts dun even have aircon!!!) - god knows how in the world CDL can even brand this a 6-star. But the MCST gets conservancy and maintenance funds of close to $1m a month - thus it's a matter of time before some changes are made. Already many residents have filed complaints. Technically, 18k goldplate each lift won't even come up to 1/5 of 1 month's conservancy.

Should the Sail be worth 3x mass market? - let the market decide esp when everything is ready - just half a year more at the very most and we can see soon. Other than OR@Ion, i know of no other locale that gives such a breadth of facilities or standard of living in terms of reacheable public and private facilities within a 100m radius. Even the Orchard makeover was $35m, not mbay's $7.5b.

[Regulators]

u mention of all the money spent by the govt in marina as if it is a legacy for residents living within a 1km radius of those facilities. Truth is ppl everywhere in singapore go to marina for entertainment and every part of singapore to marina wont take mre than half an hr on the expressway. Marina has always been a place of entertainment frm b4 with or without the IR or new developments. The newly injectd funds simply means mre tourism revenue n mre tourists visiting that area. If that is the case if govt decides to inject 100bil into Jurong lake district n turn it into anthr tourism n business hub, shouldnt pxs of condos there hit 2kpsf (revenue frm immediate heartlanders n tourists)? Why should pxs of prime move even higher just becoz suburban condos move higher?
Nope, my argument is not about the IR or the casino. the $7.5b is spent on central park, promenade, gardens, water features, boardwalks, landscapes, underground connectors, watersports, security, transport & utilities - all public facilities.

A further $32b has been spent by Sands/Keppel/CheungKong on the IR, MBFC, ArtScience museum and the shopping malls. And then we have the $350m waterfront lifestyle facilities from the new remake of collyer quay all the way to one fullerton.

The IR/casino is only a piece of the puzzle, and even if we don't factor it in, that still leaves us with all the other entertainment, shopping, garden and recreation facilities, as well as the onefuller-collyer stretch. i don't even have to step a foot in the IR to have a great living.

And that's just the 180 degrees bay facing 100m radius. The other 180 degrees where lau pa sat, one shenton and where Singapore's tallest 'empire state building' wannabe is supposed to be has yet to be built.

The Sail admittedly has f@cked up finishing in the lifts landings, and the lifts themselves (shit, the lifts dun even have aircon!!!) - god knows how in the world CDL can even brand this a 6-star. But the MCST gets conservancy and maintenance funds of close to $1m a month - thus it's a matter of time before some changes are made. Already many residents have filed complaints. Technically, 18k goldplate each lift won't even come up to 1/5 of 1 month's conservancy.

Should the Sail be worth 3x mass market? - let the market decide esp when everything is ready - just half a year more at the very most and we can see soon. Other than OR@Ion, i know of no other locale that gives such a breadth of facilities or standard of living in terms of reacheable public and private facilities within a 100m radius. Even the Orchard makeover was $35m, not mbay's $7.5b.

[gfoo]

You are right, if the govt pumps in $100billion committed and tendered funds to the Jurong lake district for infrastructure and facilities, i will immediately buy a nice unit there. It will shoot up more than 3x, 4x, 5x. $100 billion is a lot - it's like gilding each road with gold, and you have another $90 billion left.

Yes the govt money will benefit all, but the landscaping and facilities will most definitely benefit residents as well. It's like telling the whole telok kurau area (same size) that govt is spending $7.5b to build flower-lined landscaped roads & walkways, parks, gardens, ponds, underground shopping malls and aircon connectors.

Marina South is Marina South, Mbay is Mbay. The MSouth buildings we used to know is now going to be turned into part of the Gardens and cruise terminal.


Why should pxs of prime move even higher just becoz suburban condos move higher?

Singapore really has no suburban area, it's so small that almost everything is urban. In other countries, real suburban areas like the Hamptons, Martha's Vin, etc - gated communities for the super rich etc - are priced more than in the cities. But prices in Manhattan facing central park or the hudson, next to the financial center still outstrips all of them by multiples.

[gfoo]

becoz i'm obviously vested, so my views are biased. any other bros here care to add your views?

[Regulators]

a 1000sf unit at the sale would cost 2mil, wouldnt u agree that this is a ridiculous px to pay for a mass mkt condo (or i shud say apt) just for bay view and sme tourist amenities around. Millionaires who have too much money to throw aside, a logical thnking person wud spend that money on a freehold landed pty in D15 a short dist frm the sea, Marina bay, town and all those amenities u mentioned. Those who pay 2kpsf for the sail are as stupid as those who spend 1kpsf buying hillvista.
You are right, if the govt pumps in $100billion committed and tendered funds to the Jurong lake district for infrastructure and facilities, i will immediately buy a nice unit there. It will shoot up more than 3x, 4x, 5x. $100 billion is a lot - it's like gilding each road with gold, and you have another $90 billion left.

Yes the govt money will benefit all, but the landscaping and facilities will most definitely benefit residents as well. It's like telling the whole telok kurau area (same size) that govt is spending $7.5b to build flower-lined landscaped roads & walkways, parks, gardens, ponds, underground shopping malls and aircon connectors.

Marina South is Marina South, Mbay is Mbay. The MSouth buildings we used to know is now going to be turned into part of the Gardens and cruise terminal.



Singapore really has no suburban area, it's so small that almost everything is urban. In other countries, real suburban areas like the Hamptons, Martha's Vin, etc - gated communities for the super rich etc - are priced more than in the cities. But prices in Manhattan facing central park or the hudson, next to the financial center still outstrips all of them by multiples.

[gfoo]

a 1000sf unit at the sale would cost 2mil, wouldnt u agree that this is a ridiculous px to pay for a mass mkt condo (or i shud say apt) just for bay view and sme tourist amenities around. Millionaires who have too much money to throw aside, a logical thnking person wud spend that money on a freehold landed pty in D15 a short dist frm the sea, Marina bay, town and all those amenities u mentioned. Those who pay 2kpsf for the sail are as stupid as those who spend 1kpsf buying hillvista.
point taken. let's hear fr others

[Property_Owner]

becoz i'm obviously vested, so my views are biased. any other bros here care to add your views?

Let the market decide. Let nature take it's course. If buyers know few months ago was lowest, all will be rich now. If sellers know market moving up, who will sell few months ago

[Regulators]

last thing to add, i think valuators should relook their valuation guidelines
Let the market decide. Let nature take it's course. If buyers know few months ago was lowest, all will be rich now. If sellers know market moving up, who will sell few months ago

[kurby]

Let the market decide. Let nature take it's course. If buyers know few months ago was lowest, all will be rich now. If sellers know market moving up, who will sell few months ago

Fully agree....let the market speak...whatever we say here are just views of different people with opposite vested interest...

Keep the discussion friendly yah...:)

[tanumy]

For future investment point of view better buy condo in east. It is decent housing location and also nearer to town area. Many new developements coming. Gd one at the moment are double bay residence at simei.

[teddybear]

Marina Bay area - well, up and coming bright star. Only concern is all 99LH properties. Stay for 10 years and have to flip out because they just depreciate in value.

I prefer FH, the longer I stay in it, the more valuable it is, just like making wine. Obviously not everywhere in Singapore, but some place which can't be replaced in Singapore because of the established status and history and accumulated $xx billions spent on it. Guess where? I go with Simon Cheong's preference - Orchard Road. Any FH property within 500m of Orchard MRT and ION will be good bet! Govt has accumulatively spent don't know how many $xx billions on infrastructure and marketing etc to get Ochard to where it is now over the past 30+ years and still planning and re-planning and re-making Orchard. I suppose can't go wrong betting on those FH properties around Orchard MRT & ION (and there are now very few FH available there).

If we believe Singapore is going the way of NY or London, then the price multiples of properties between inner happening area and outlying area will continue to increase more and more (as it is, rich become richer and poor become poorer - sad but true). To gain from price appreciation of properties, always go for CCR and avoid OCR.


becoz i'm obviously vested, so my views are biased. any other bros here care to add your views?

[proud owner]

For future investment point of view better buy condo in east. It is decent housing location and also nearer to town area. Many new developements coming. Gd one at the moment are double bay residence at simei.

i said before and will say again

East ..how east ?

east coast is the most congested residential area in spore ..

touch wood .. one bomb wil destroy more here than anywhere else in spore ... there are simply too many condos and landed in east coast ..

on investment point of view .. when mkt collapses, there are alot more sellers than any other locations..

becos of the dense developments, its almost impossible to widen the roads without tearing down the shop houses on both sides.. if they do ..all the so called famous eateries will be gone .. where is the charm left ?

so it is almost certain east coast will remian as cramp as ever .. with the exception of meyer, crescent area ...

[teddybear]

Try driving along ECP and a person will find that he/she is perpetually stuck with traffic jam all the way to the city (& back) during peak hours. Even non-peak hours also so heavy traffic, not to mention some stupid tortoise driving at 80km/hr on the right most lane at the same speed as the other vehicle on its left (blocked up the few lanes that you can't even drive faster & over-take (and mine you, this is true experience and happen most of the time)). Meyer area is also as bad. East Coast only good for people who can just live there without needing to travel West (no ECP, No!).


i said before and will say again

East ..how east ?

east coast is the most congested residential area in spore ..

touch wood .. one bomb wil destroy more here than anywhere else in spore ... there are simply too many condos and landed in east coast ..

on investment point of view .. when mkt collapses, there are alot more sellers than any other locations..

becos of the dense developments, its almost impossible to widen the roads without tearing down the shop houses on both sides.. if they do ..all the so called famous eateries will be gone .. where is the charm left ?

so it is almost certain east coast will remian as cramp as ever .. with the exception of meyer, crescent area ...

[august]

a 1000sf unit at the sale would cost 2mil, wouldnt u agree that this is a ridiculous px to pay for a mass mkt condo (or i shud say apt) just for bay view and sme tourist amenities around. Millionaires who have too much money to throw aside, a logical thnking person wud spend that money on a freehold landed pty in D15 a short dist frm the sea, Marina bay, town and all those amenities u mentioned. Those who pay 2kpsf for the sail are as stupid as those who spend 1kpsf buying hillvista.

well orchard rd condos like orchard residences, marq, cuscaden etc over 3k or 4k psf, amt wld be in the millions or dbl digit millions.. its just an orchard rd apt, so is that ridiculous??

i'm not in the position to say whether this kind of prices is ridiculous or not.. but undeniably the pricing of these so-called bestest of the best will filter down to prime, sub-prime, mass mkt condos, suburbs etc.. we just have to live with it


so looking at the relative pricing i dun think paying 2k psf now for marina bay is that outrageous considering it hit over 3k psf during 2007 peak.. To me orchard rd represents the safe bet, its reputation means it will always be sought after by these super rich, which means every boom cycle it will be the most expensive in SG. Marina bay on the other hand is new and unproven, it is a risky bet and as a result the mkt priced it lower than orchard rd prime. But without a doubt the potential is there, it may even catch up with the orchard rd prime, and maybe even surpass it.. :scared-4: perhaps not in the next 1 or 2 yrs, but once everything is up, after 3 or 4 yrs who knows?

[wqmai]

i said before and will say again

East ..how east ?

east coast is the most congested residential area in spore ..

touch wood .. one bomb wil destroy more here than anywhere else in spore ... there are simply too many condos and landed in east coast ..

on investment point of view .. when mkt collapses, there are alot more sellers than any other locations..

becos of the dense developments, its almost impossible to widen the roads without tearing down the shop houses on both sides.. if they do ..all the so called famous eateries will be gone .. where is the charm left ?

so it is almost certain east coast will remian as cramp as ever .. with the exception of meyer, crescent area ...

Ai ya, Buy those condo in Jurong point lor. But also a lot of cars, jam here jam there. Maybe next time if got condo build in Tuas, buy one there lor as its the only exclusive condo. When market collapses, it will have the least seller due to it is exclusiveness. Weekdays will have jams but weekends confirm no jam. :ashamed1:

[proud owner]

Ai ya, Buy those condo in Jurong point lor. But also a lot of cars, jam here jam there. Maybe next time if got condo build in Tuas, buy one there lor as its the only exclusive condo. When market collapses, it will have the least seller due to it is exclusiveness. Weekdays will have jams but weekends confirm no jam. :ashamed1:


hahaha at least the roads are wider ...

pretty obvious you are a EAST fan / dweller

[Honesty]

last thing to add, i think valuators should relook their valuation guidelines

Beware Buyers!!!!:scared-5: :scared-5: :scared-5:

Below is what the real market we are in:-

"He added that it is uncertain if the buying momentum seen in recent months can be sustained."

"The forecast is still for negative growth this year. Although it's not as negative as it was in the beginning of the year. I think there is still uncertainty... But what is important really is for all of us, all the players in the market, to make sure that the market remains healthy," said Mr Mah.

[proud owner]

Beware Buyers!!!!:scared-5: :scared-5: :scared-5:

Below is what the real market we are in:-

"He added that it is uncertain if the buying momentum seen in recent months can be sustained."

"The forecast is still for negative growth this year. Although it's not as negative as it was in the beginning of the year. I think there is still uncertainty... But what is important really is for all of us, all the players in the market, to make sure that the market remains healthy," said Mr Mah.

he very smart to make this remark .. on a day when china's top 2 banks decided to control their lendings ... resulted in a fall in property counters and ..


so that if prop falls in spore .. he would say 'Dont say i never warn you " ...

[teddybear]

My rule of thumb is that price RCR >= 1.5->2 X OCR.
CCR >= 2.5->3 X OCR. The prime of the prime CCR >= 3->5 X OCR.
So, if OCR priced at $1k psf, Marina Bay should be at least $2.5k psf already. :ashamed1:


a 1000sf unit at the sale would cost 2mil, wouldnt u agree that this is a ridiculous px to pay for a mass mkt condo (or i shud say apt) just for bay view and sme tourist amenities around. Millionaires who have too much money to throw aside, a logical thnking person wud spend that money on a freehold landed pty in D15 a short dist frm the sea, Marina bay, town and all those amenities u mentioned. Those who pay 2kpsf for the sail are as stupid as those who spend 1kpsf buying hillvista.

[kurby]

Stock is absolutely not a zero sum game.

Hold over time and you will generally increase in capital & dividend.
Zero sum is for inexperienced "traders" with 5 minute investment horizon.

Property is also not a sure win proposition.

As for earnings being better than expected. It just means they are better than awful. - which was the expectation. Many are still way down from highs.

Agree...if accounting for dividend and bonus/rights issue, then it is a win-win situation. I was just referring to pure capital gains/losses...

Yup better than expected doesn't mean good...

[kurby]

I just want to find out - given everything the same (including same location), how much premium would a freehold have over a leasehold development at the point of new launch?

20% more?

[Douk]

Beware Buyers!!!!:scared-5: :scared-5: :scared-5:

Below is what the real market we are in:-

"He added that it is uncertain if the buying momentum seen in recent months can be sustained."

"The forecast is still for negative growth this year. Although it's not as negative as it was in the beginning of the year. I think there is still uncertainty... But what is important really is for all of us, all the players in the market, to make sure that the market remains healthy," said Mr Mah.

only few weeks ago, he mentioned no sign of speculation.. now some speculation involved. how to go wrong with this kind of comments :D

[proud owner]

I just want to find out - given everything the same (including same location), how much premium would a freehold have over a leasehold development at the point of new launch?

20% more?

in normal non crazy situation .. yes there about ...

but nowadays people who can only afford LH will tell you "aiya i am not going to live 99 yrs "

[proud owner]

only few weeks ago, he mentioned no sign of speculation.. now some speculation involved. how to go wrong with this kind of comments :D

i alerady said he very smart

trying to protect his ass

china's top bank cutting loans to mortgages .. he better say something before mkt collapse and he kana hold for saying NO speculation earlier mah ..

MAH B T how apt hate that smirky face

[Lucas]

i alerady said he very smart

trying to protect his ass

china's top bank cutting loans to mortgages .. he better say something before mkt collapse and he kana hold for saying NO speculation earlier mah ..

MAH B T how apt hate that smirky face

Well, they so many scholars in gov and they are so clever in turning what they said before back and fore.

[XB]

aiyo... all the same lah. :doh:

black become white, white become black. heard so many of all these.

(1) the town council mini-bonds issue - someone says we got to be grateful :tsk-tsk:

(2) loss in investment, initially say long term view, and few months later, become champion in the biggest loss by any single fund. so long term is defined as <2yrs :scared-1:

(3) raise ERP is for the good of the businesses :banghead:

:scared-5: :scared-5: :scared-5: :scared-5:

[xtink]

well said! u still rmbr all those. Sadly our opposition has been very quiet on these.


aiyo... all the same lah. :doh:

black become white, white become black. heard so many of all these.

(1) the town council mini-bonds issue - someone says we got to be grateful :tsk-tsk:

(2) loss in investment, initially say long term view, and few months later, become champion in the biggest loss by any single fund. so long term is defined as <2yrs :scared-1:

(3) raise ERP is for the good of the businesses :banghead:

:scared-5: :scared-5: :scared-5: :scared-5:

[kurby]

in normal non crazy situation .. yes there about ...

but nowadays people who can only afford LH will tell you "aiya i am not going to live 99 yrs "

Thanks....:) :)

[proud owner]

aiyo... all the same lah. :doh:

black become white, white become black. heard so many of all these.

(1) the town council mini-bonds issue - someone says we got to be grateful :tsk-tsk:

(2) loss in investment, initially say long term view, and few months later, become champion in the biggest loss by any single fund. so long term is defined as <2yrs :scared-1:

(3) raise ERP is for the good of the businesses :banghead:

:scared-5: :scared-5: :scared-5: :scared-5:

when the shit about to hit the fence ..pretend to step down and hired some ang mo ..

when the storm of the loss is over .. ang mo strangely resigned ...and she's back ??

ahhahaha


Fair Weather CEO like that no wonder top 10 woman in the world lah ..

we should be happy we have someone we can be proud of ...

[Regulators]

not that opposition is quiet, just that they have no way to verify the accounts n their opaque way of handling our money
well said! u still rmbr all those. Sadly our opposition has been very quiet on these.

[venetiacoffee]

The rich can buy anywhere. He doesn't need to think logic on relative psf. He just wants the feel...He has millions...He goes to Phuket on weekends and casino on weekdays...

As long as the many monotonous lego blocks are not well maintained by residents and t councils, there will be demand for condos...they call it upgrade ...then pent-up demand...

I just wonder :confused: why some people spend so much psf in a condo and yet have the habit of massive display of laundry at planter areas and full glass windows:scared-4: . There are so many examples of these full glass condos ....;someone gave "one amber"...as example...:doh: Perhaps the developers don't design spacious yard anymore ..;.So for someone who wants that feel and is into ambience... as in "contemporary home design"...buying a condo now from the showroom at $1000++psf in some areas ..seems to be taking high risk...:scared-1: :2cents:

[proud owner]

I just wonder :confused: why some people spend so much psf in a condo and yet have the habit of massive display of laundry at planter areas and full glass windows:scared-4: . There are so many examples of these full glass




haha

you can take her out of kampung
but you cant take the kampung out of her

[jlrx]

I have a question regarding whether for investment, is it better to invest in the stock market or properties?

Of course it is better to invest in properties than the stock market.

Just imagine this - If William Shakespeare had divided his income from writing plays into 3 equal parts, to bequeath to his 3 children - Sussana, Judith and Hamnet:

1. The first part invested in properties around central London, bought during his time - to bequeath to Sussana;

2. The second part kept as Pound Sterling - to bequeath to Judith; and

3. The third part invested in companies that existed during his time - to bequeath to Hamnet.

I can tell you that Sussana's descendants would be fabulously rich; Judith's descendents would still have some money; while Hamnet's descendants (if he had any) would become paupers.

(Last I checked there were no British companies that lasted more than 400 years).

The whole idea of the stock market is to transfer wealth from the pockets of investors into the pockets of founder entrepreneurs / executives; just like money was transfered from retirees into the bonus pools of Lehman Brothers executives. :spliff:

Of course once in a while they let you win some; but don't casinos do the same? :spliff2:

[Regulators]

not a gd analogy, nobody keeps their money in stocks indefinitely or forever. There are dif entry n exit pts for dif investments.
Of course it is better to invest in properties than the stock market.

Just imagine this - If William Shakespeare had divided his income from writing plays into 3 equal parts, to bequeath to his 3 children - Sussana, Judith and Hamnet:

1. The first part invested in properties around central London, bought during his time - to bequeath to Sussana;

2. The second part kept as Pound Sterling - to bequeath to Judith; and

3. The third part invested in companies that existed during his time - to bequeath to Hamnet.

I can tell you that Sussana's descendants would be fabulously rich; Judith's descendents would still have some money; while Hamnet's descendants (if he had any) would become paupers.

(Last I checked there were no British companies that lasted more than 400 years).

The whole idea of the stock market is to transfer wealth from the pockets of investors into the pockets of founder entrepreneurs / executives; just like money was transfered from retirees into the bonus pools of Lehman Brothers executives. :spliff:

Of course once in a while they let you win some; but don't casinos do the same? :spliff2:

[teddybear]

Very interesting analogy. :cheers1:


Of course it is better to invest in properties than the stock market.

Just imagine this - If William Shakespeare had divided his income from writing plays into 3 equal parts, to bequeath to his 3 children - Sussana, Judith and Hamnet:

1. The first part invested in properties around central London, bought during his time - to bequeath to Sussana;

2. The second part kept as Pound Sterling - to bequeath to Judith; and

3. The third part invested in companies that existed during his time - to bequeath to Hamnet.

I can tell you that Sussana's descendants would be fabulously rich; Judith's descendents would still have some money; while Hamnet's descendants (if he had any) would become paupers.

(Last I checked there were no British companies that lasted more than 400 years).

The whole idea of the stock market is to transfer wealth from the pockets of investors into the pockets of founder entrepreneurs / executives; just like money was transfered from retirees into the bonus pools of Lehman Brothers executives. :spliff:

Of course once in a while they let you win some; but don't casinos do the same? :spliff2:

[EBD]

haha

you can take her out of kampung
but you cant take the kampung out of her

haha absolutely my thoughts too.
Never can understand why people want to move from HDB then make their private block look like an HDB.
Don't understand why the councils allow it.

[cheerful]

haha absolutely my thoughts too.
Never can understand why people want to move from HDB then make their private block look like an HDB.
Don't understand why the councils allow it.

Hmm ... can only guess possibly their mentality is 'since every inch already paid for .. might as well use lah' (can't blame since it's personal space & habit mah) :p

[Regulators]

some mass market condos in the suburbs already look like hdb...:doh:

[EBD]

Not a good analogy.

1. Some companies disappear because they go out of business.
2. Some however split up into new entities...... Has your investment disappeared?
3. Some companies vanish as they are eaten by other companies...... do you not get stock in the new company?

Who in their right mind would but all their eggs in one basket. Diversify & avoid situation 1 with ETF and mutual fund.

by the same strange logic lets think of an analogy for 2 & 3....
Do you think the property Sussana received in London is still standing today? Oh if it's not there anymore then she must have lost everything right? No chance she got fair market price for it from developer etc.....
I used to have a nice property down Leonie Hill. It's no longer there. I guess I am severely out of pocket... transferred my wealth to ..... whoever I am meant to have transferred it to.

Are you still so sure about property & stock?

I use both & have more in equity and bonds than property as you can pull the trigger real quick if you need to.



Of course it is better to invest in properties than the stock market.

Just imagine this - If William Shakespeare had divided his income from writing plays into 3 equal parts, to bequeath to his 3 children - Sussana, Judith and Hamnet:

1. The first part invested in properties around central London, bought during his time - to bequeath to Sussana;

2. The second part kept as Pound Sterling - to bequeath to Judith; and

3. The third part invested in companies that existed during his time - to bequeath to Hamnet.

I can tell you that Sussana's descendants would be fabulously rich; Judith's descendents would still have some money; while Hamnet's descendants (if he had any) would become paupers.

(Last I checked there were no British companies that lasted more than 400 years).

The whole idea of the stock market is to transfer wealth from the pockets of investors into the pockets of founder entrepreneurs / executives; just like money was transfered from retirees into the bonus pools of Lehman Brothers executives. :spliff:

Of course once in a while they let you win some; but don't casinos do the same? :spliff2:

[EBD]

some mass market condos in the suburbs already look like hdb...:doh:

I agree. In fact some new HDB look better than all those identical glass fishtanks at amber and seaview.

The architecture for new private apartments is really descending to what they can build the cheapest. I doubt we will see wonderful designs like the Futura again any time soon.

[august]

some mass market condos in the suburbs already look like hdb...:doh:

does retropolitan comes to mind? :ashamed1:

[teddybear]

Talk about the glassy buildings; Developers want you to believe that they are putting so much glasses on the exterior of your condo unit because it looks classy (glassy?) and modern but the real reason why they like it is because those glass they use are damn cheap compared to using concrete! Mind you, I am also damn sure that such condo unit cannot last as long as those using concrete without requiring more maintenance/replacement as the glass cracks when they aged or because of impurities in them etc.


I agree. In fact some new HDB look better than all those identical glass fishtanks at amber and seaview.

The architecture for new private apartments is really descending to what they can build the cheapest. I doubt we will see wonderful designs like the Futura again any time soon.

[venetiacoffee]

I agree. In fact some new HDB look better than all those identical glass fishtanks at amber and seaview.

The architecture for new private apartments is really descending to what they can build the cheapest. I doubt we will see wonderful designs like the Futura again any time soon.


the architecture of the lego blocks was created 20 over years and have not changed much, many design duplications, only that the prices have gone up ...creating that laundry culture; ...Now possibly boosting that pent-up damand ...

we see national flags at lego blocks & some condos when we drive around..;national day;...we may also see colourful bed sheets or towels :doh: next to the flags ...wonder what are those t council officials checking when they do their routine work everyday...:doh: The condos nearer these lego blocks tend to get that virus eventually...psf will drop in the long run..that's for sure...; there are so many examples...:scared-2: :scared-1: :scared-1:

[jitkiat]

THE recent exuberance in Singapore's property market could see prices creeping up some five to 10 per cent by end of this year and into the next, said CapitaLand's chief executive Liew Mun Leong on Thursday.
At the moment, the demand from homes is in a 'healthy state' and it does not appear there is bubble forming yet, said Mr Liew.


=> he will will launch Gillman Height soon ...guess earliest November ... AMK 1150psf ... Alexandra will set you back @ 1400psf then, their enbloc cost is below 400psf

[august]

HDB just launched another set of BTO flats at punggol. The 4 room at 1044 sft size will cost 322k (308psf), and 5 room at 1248sft size will cost 408k (327psf)

if mah wants to talk about bubbles, he shld 1st do something about mkt-based pricing for hdb flats..