View Full Version : Will Rivergate hit 1k psf and below?
bargain hunter
04-06-09, 14:11
yeah, its just a portfolio rebalancing decision, sell BofA, Barclays, buy CCB, Olam, NOL. Just normal course of business. I don't think we can imply anything from that other than they believing in the future of the east more than the west.
Haha... Good question.
By selling BOA and barclay, I don't think Temasek is non believers. I feel that they have workout their sum that which has a better potential for higher returns in long term.
yeah, its just a portfolio rebalancing decision, sell BofA, Barclays, buy CCB, Olam, NOL. Just normal course of business. I don't think we can imply anything from that other than they believing in the future of the east more than the west.
aiyoh why u scold smelly bad word? :tsk-tsk:
:D
bargain hunter
04-06-09, 14:15
China Construction Bank, listed name is really CCB :ashamed1:
aiyoh why u scold smelly bad word? :tsk-tsk:
:D
bargain hunter
07-06-09, 14:42
http://www.theedgesingapore.com/component/content/article/978-2009/5048-capitaland-rides-market-reviva.html
not sure if this link can be read by non subscribers. Anway, its a feature on Capitaland and its projects in The Edge.
http://www.theedgesingapore.com/component/content/article/978-2009/5048-capitaland-rides-market-reviva.html
not sure if this link can be read by non subscribers. Anway, its a feature on Capitaland and its projects in The Edge.
Thanks ... can view.
It was said that ...
"..... The other site that CapitaLand purchased en bloc in recent years was Silver Tower, along Cairnhill Road. The developer paid $161 million, or $1,107 psf per plot ratio, for the 57,242 sq ft site. The new 100-unit, 20-storey luxury condo block that will be built there, Urban Resort, has yet to be launched. According to caveats lodged, there was a sole unit on the 17th floor that was sold for close to $8.2 million, or $3,866 psf, last September."
Don't think can see caveat at URA site leh ... only thing can view is 64 units in the project ..
looks pretty aggressive .... rt issues :)
Oops ... there is one lodged for Urban Resort .. ultra-rich who cld have gotten in before anybody else?
2,121 sq ft3,866 psfSep-08
bargain hunter
07-06-09, 15:20
yeah, but at 3866psf?! sounds like an ultra-rich sucker.
Oops ... there is one lodged for Urban Resort .. ultra-rich who cld have gotten in before anybody else?
2,121 sq ft3,866 psfSep-08
bargain hunter
07-06-09, 15:23
then again, buyer is assued that capitaland won't anyhow fire sell in a bad market. Seems like Capitaland won't anyhow sell their SUPER luxury projects but they just did so for The Wharf hee which they probably classify as "ONLY" luxury, or prime.
I think it's the same issue that has a blatant PR sell about a person who has moved into Rivergate & loves it so much that they are not taking any vacations. Being at home feels like a break apparently. Did you guys read that?
bargain hunter
09-06-09, 20:33
yup, i wanted to paste it here as well but the online version is still not available. Entitled "Smitten by the river view", its about this mother and daughter who absolutely loves the place. They also throw in this quote from Phyllicia Ang, senior associate director at Savills, "Many of the units transacted in the recent weekends have been at 1500psf, with some touching 1600psf." I believe there will be very good units which were transacted at 1500 to 1600psf but surely not that "MANY".
I think it's the same issue that has a blatant PR sell about a person who has moved into Rivergate & loves it so much that they are not taking any vacations. Being at home feels like a break apparently. Did you guys read that?
few mths back , i got an agent who offer 1k psf for a certain unit
is a fire sale
bargain hunter
09-06-09, 20:43
Perhaps that 1kpsf offer was fake? there was this scam which tried to draw in buyers with the hope of buying at 1k (also trying to get panic sellers to throw out at 1k) but in the end a few lucky ones got in at 1100+ but many others got in at 1200.
What is truly amazing is that the Lippo units that Savills/Knight Frank have been marketing are the biggest units available in Rivergate and yet they are also commanding the highest psf at 1300psf to 1500+psf. However, some of the high floor units are the truly almost totally unblocked ones like stacks 6, 9 and 10. Stack 7 which the mother and daughter mentioned in the article are living in indeed also has a unique river view but gets west sun.
few mths back , i got an agent who offer 1k psf for a certain unit
is a fire sale
I think it's the same issue that has a blatant PR sell about a person who has moved into Rivergate & loves it so much that they are not taking any vacations. Being at home feels like a break apparently. Did you guys read that?
hello there cute neighbour...
anyway, with afternoon sun, at least you can have your morning bfast on the balcony n your papers
bargain hunter
10-06-09, 00:23
your cute neighbour takes morning walks with her mum daily leh. said balcony is an extended living room for entertaining hee.
hello there cute neighbour...
anyway, with afternoon sun, at least you can have your morning bfast on the balcony n your papers
bargain hunter
12-06-09, 13:50
The first caveat for the Lippo units are out. Really transacted at above 1500psf.
Rivergate $2,568,800 1690sq ft 1520psf May-09
qwertyuiop
12-06-09, 13:57
Hi BH, pardon me but how do you know if it was a Lippo unit?
The first caveat for the Lippo units are out. Really transacted at above 1500psf.
Rivergate $2,568,800 1690sq ft 1520psf May-09
Lippo or not, i personally feel that person really over pay as compared to the other RG units transacted prices since most are doing 1.3-1.4k+ psf
As to whether it is the Lippo units, you just need to know which unit number and cross-check with the lit of units for sale by them.
From what I see the Rivergate $2,568,800 1690sq ft 1520psf May-09 is #23-09 which imo is really overpay compared to the same stack, but 4 flrs higher, #27-09 sold @ onie $1.4k psf which is also log in caveat on May as well
bargain hunter
12-06-09, 14:41
it was just my guess becoz before lippo started selling, i would think no one would overpay above 1500psf for Rivergate's big units. :p
Hi BH, pardon me but how do you know if it was a Lippo unit?
bargain hunter
12-06-09, 14:47
judging from dtrax's accurate caveat, it seems like its not a lippo unit because lippo owns all the even numbered floors of stacks 6 to 10. Perhaps 27-09 was sold before Lippo released their units for sale and 23-09 was riding with Lippo which asked for more than 1500psf.
Lippo or not, i personally feel that person really over pay as compared to the other RG units transacted prices since most are doing 1.3-1.4k+ psf
As to whether it is the Lippo units, you just need to know which unit number and cross-check with the lit of units for sale by them.
From what I see the Rivergate $2,568,800 1690sq ft 1520psf May-09 is #23-09 which imo is really overpay compared to the same stack, but 4 flrs higher, #27-09 sold @ onie $1.4k psf which is also log in caveat on May as well
judging from dtrax's accurate caveat, it seems like its not a lippo unit because lippo owns all the even numbered floors of stacks 6 to 10. Perhaps 27-09 was sold before Lippo released their units for sale and 23-09 was riding with Lippo which asked for more than 1500psf.
So seller at 23-09 laughing all the way to bank and despo buyer for this unit bot not knowing he tio carrothead?
bargain hunter
12-06-09, 15:07
maybe buyer compared with lippo 22-09 also asking 1520 and he said, hey 23-09 better buy, i may as well get this one. #23 got one big sky garden above stack 07 which ends at #22 mah.
don't say carrothead lah, look out for more 1500 to 1560psf deals done by lippo for stack 6 to 10 in the weeks to come. then it becomes "normal". :doh: valuation can match. whatever you call it. :)
So seller at 23-09 laughing all the way to bank and despo buyer for this unit bot not knowing he tio carrothead?
maybe buyer compared with lippo 22-09 also asking 1520 and he said, hey 23-09 better buy, i may as well get this one. #23 got one big sky garden above stack 07 which ends at #22 mah.
don't say carrothead lah, look out for more 1500 to 1560psf deals done by lippo for stack 6 to 10 in the weeks to come. then it becomes "normal". :doh: valuation can match. whatever you call it. :)
ya carrothead is very subjective since the prices in RG are holding quite well.. but as compared to the similar transactions for the month, it is considered overpaid.. though i can attest view form stack 9 > $20 is consider very gd :)
bargain hunter
12-06-09, 15:18
yeah, my picks are stack 9, 5 (impossibly ex) and 10 (4 bedroom). but all out of reach already. :D
ya carrothead is very subjective since the prices in RG are holding quite well.. but as compared to the similar transactions for the month, it is considered overpaid.. though i can attest view form stack 9 > $20 is consider very gd :)
yeah, my picks are stack 9, 5 (impossibly ex) and 10 (4 bedroom). but all out of reach already. :D
for homestay or investment?
bargain hunter
12-06-09, 17:08
both i guess. i wouldn't buy a unit i would not feel like staying in for investment anyway.
for homestay or investment?
So seller at 23-09 laughing all the way to bank and despo buyer for this unit bot not knowing he tio carrothead?
how are u able to tell the unit number from the caveat? from the ura site, there are no details.
proud owner
16-06-09, 04:10
how are u able to tell the unit number from the caveat? from the ura site, there are no details.
pay up ..and your see alot more detail
bargain hunter
19-06-09, 12:58
dtrax, or anyone else able to see, can help out? i am curious what are the unit numbers for the most expensive Lippo units whose caveats just shown up today. :ashamed1:
$2,878,880 1894sq ft 1520psf Jun-09
$3,059,500 2110sq ft 1450psf May-09
$2,944,080 2088sq ft 1410psf Jun-09
$2,923,200 2088sq ft 1400psf Jun-09
and the oddly low:
$2,214,880 1744sq ft 1270psf Jun-09
Interesting because Lippo units said to be sold between 1380psf to 1560psf but if the low prices hit are Lippo units means that prices were negotiable afterall.
Lippo or not, i personally feel that person really over pay as compared to the other RG units transacted prices since most are doing 1.3-1.4k+ psf
As to whether it is the Lippo units, you just need to know which unit number and cross-check with the lit of units for sale by them.
From what I see the Rivergate $2,568,800 1690sq ft 1520psf May-09 is #23-09 which imo is really overpay compared to the same stack, but 4 flrs higher, #27-09 sold @ onie $1.4k psf which is also log in caveat on May as well
bargain hunter
21-06-09, 15:38
btw, the seller of 27-09 bought at 1150 in march! made a cool 400k within 2 months. explains why he would sell at 1400psf when 23-09 paid 1520psf. :)
Lippo or not, i personally feel that person really over pay as compared to the other RG units transacted prices since most are doing 1.3-1.4k+ psf
As to whether it is the Lippo units, you just need to know which unit number and cross-check with the lit of units for sale by them.
From what I see the Rivergate $2,568,800 1690sq ft 1520psf May-09 is #23-09 which imo is really overpay compared to the same stack, but 4 flrs higher, #27-09 sold @ onie $1.4k psf which is also log in caveat on May as well
fortune favours the brave..
dtrax, or anyone else able to see, can help out? i am curious what are the unit numbers for the most expensive Lippo units whose caveats just shown up today. :ashamed1:
$2,878,880 1894sq ft 1520psf Jun-09
$3,059,500 2110sq ft 1450psf May-09
$2,944,080 2088sq ft 1410psf Jun-09
$2,923,200 2088sq ft 1400psf Jun-09
and the oddly low:
$2,214,880 1744sq ft 1270psf Jun-09
Interesting because Lippo units said to be sold between 1380psf to 1560psf but if the low prices hit are Lippo units means that prices were negotiable afterall.
$2,878,880 1894sq ft 1520psf Jun-09 - #28-10 - Lippo (SW facing)
$3,059,500 2110sq ft 1450psf May-09 - #20-08 - Lippo (SW facing)
$2,944,080 2088sq ft 1410psf Jun-09 - #08-06 - Lippo (NW facing)
$2,923,200 2088sq ft 1400psf Jun-09 - #16-06 - Lippo (NW facing)
and the oddly low:
$2,214,880 1744sq ft 1270psf Jun-09 - #10-09 - Lippo (NE facing)
- this one also lippo's unit but on firesale???
bargain hunter
23-06-09, 08:38
that means can bargain and those who did not have been conned by lippo! :doh:
$2,878,880 1894sq ft 1520psf Jun-09 - #28-10 - Lippo (SW facing)
$3,059,500 2110sq ft 1450psf May-09 - #20-08 - Lippo (SW facing)
$2,944,080 2088sq ft 1410psf Jun-09 - #08-06 - Lippo (NW facing)
$2,923,200 2088sq ft 1400psf Jun-09 - #16-06 - Lippo (NW facing)
and the oddly low:
$2,214,880 1744sq ft 1270psf Jun-09 - #10-09 - Lippo (NE facing)
- this one also lippo's unit but on firesale???
bargain hunter
29-06-09, 08:27
#10-09 is fine. Not fantastic but at least a open view. Since Lippo units were reported to be on sale FROM 1380 to 1560psf, 1270psf looks like it was achieved after the buyer made the lower bid instead of taking Lippo's asking price. That means actually Lippo's units asking price are quite negotiable and those who bought at their asking prices have been conned.
unit with bad view?
#10-09 is fine. Not fantastic but at least a open view. Since Lippo units were reported to be on sale FROM 1380 to 1560psf, 1270psf looks like it was achieved after the buyer made the lower bid instead of taking Lippo's asking price. That means actually Lippo's units asking price are quite negotiable and those who bought at their asking prices have been conned.
no one has been conned lah... it's a case of willing buyer and willing seller. Do remember that sellers are not obliged to give the buyers the best price, neither is the buyer obliged to pay the highest price possible in the market... :D
bargain hunter
29-06-09, 10:02
well, this is an institutional seller (as opposed to individuals) and agents (some of whom i spoke to personally) said prices were not negotiable but it is turning out to be negotiable afterall. So I was just feeling for the buyers who paid the asking price thinking that its not negotiable. If I'm them, I would feel conned.
no one has been conned lah... it's a case of willing buyer and willing seller. Do remember that sellers are not obliged to give the buyers the best price, neither is the buyer obliged to pay the highest price possible in the market... :D
well, this is an institutional seller (as opposed to individuals) and agents (some of whom i spoke to personally) said prices were not negotiable but it is turning out to be negotiable afterall. So I was just feeling for the buyers who paid the asking price thinking that its not negotiable. If I'm them, I would feel conned.
Well then it is the agents that were conning people. Coz AFAIK, the seller had never insisted on the fact that selling price are non-negotiatiable. In any case, no offense intended. If i want to sell you something, and then i told you the price is non-negotiable and you agreed on it, and we do the deal. After a few days, i decided to sell another unit slightly cheaper.... you also cannot call me a con man mah... hahaha...
bargain hunter
29-06-09, 15:02
yeah, that's true. But an experienced and trusted agent i spoke too said he was also initially led to believe that the prices by Lippo were non-negotiable. It was only later that he found out that they in fact were. No choice, property is like that, there are always people with more privileged info.
Well then it is the agents that were conning people. Coz AFAIK, the seller had never insisted on the fact that selling price are non-negotiatiable. In any case, no offense intended. If i want to sell you something, and then i told you the price is non-negotiable and you agreed on it, and we do the deal. After a few days, i decided to sell another unit slightly cheaper.... you also cannot call me a con man mah... hahaha...
can see the next series of caveats out tomorrow.. is it confirmed that was a lippo unit?
bargain hunter
29-06-09, 22:43
yeah, all the even floors of block 97 (ie stacks 6,7,8,9,10) formerly owned by Lippo.
can see the next series of caveats out tomorrow.. is it confirmed that was a lippo unit?
bargain hunter
01-07-09, 16:51
heard that things have gone all quiet at rivergate. no more agents camping there. few transactions done since the 2nd half of last month. those serious sellers have joined lippo in selling at 13xx to 15xx. those ask for the sky sellers have raised their asking prices to 1600psf and above but no one is biting. stalemate is back.
heard that things have gone all quiet at rivergate. no more agents camping there. few transactions done since the 2nd half of last month. those serious sellers have joined lippo in selling at 13xx to 15xx. those ask for the sky sellers have raised their asking prices to 1600psf and above but no one is biting. stalemate is back.
not realistic one lor.. how many own stayers can there be?
as long as rental yield continue at current lvl or slide, makes no sense for investors to match such asking prices ..
not realistic one lor.. how many own stayers can there be?
as long as rental yield continue at current lvl or slide, makes no sense for investors to match such asking prices ..
Right, too expensive to stay lor. If no tenant, really don't know how to service the loan every month.
heard that things have gone all quiet at rivergate. no more agents camping there. few transactions done since the 2nd half of last month. those serious sellers have joined lippo in selling at 13xx to 15xx. those ask for the sky sellers have raised their asking prices to 1600psf and above but no one is biting. stalemate is back.
The sky high prices is unfortunate, particularly for myself whom have a vested interest in procuring a unit there.
This said, I personally believe the current stalemate is a result of demand-supply. Given the existing owners are asking for such prices and considering they have not been able to sell their units (I assumed this is the case) and there is no sign of reduction on owners part... could it also mean the owners are not keen to sell and prepare to hold. My view is that, in an efficient dynamic market, demand supply forces will always drive prices down, IF owners are looking to sell.
If my presumption of owners are indeed not looking to sell is correct, any views on why that might be so ?
1. They are looking for the upturn to happen for a high priced flip later?
2. Owners whom are asking for such prices are those whom have been extremely successful at the rental market and thus asking for a match sale price to match the high rental they managed to secure?
On a side note, does anyone know whats the occupancy level is like in Rivergate ? All non-homestay units are all successfully rented out at sustainable yield levels ?
The sky high prices is unfortunate, particularly for myself whom have a vested interest in procuring a unit there.
This said, I personally believe the current stalemate is a result of demand-supply. Given the existing owners are asking for such prices and considering they have not been able to sell their units (I assumed this is the case) and there is no sign of reduction on owners part... could it also mean the owners are not keen to sell and prepare to hold. My view is that, in an efficient dynamic market, demand supply forces will always drive prices down, IF owners are looking to sell.
If my presumption of owners are indeed not looking to sell is correct, any views on why that might be so ?
1. They are looking for the upturn to happen for a high priced flip later?
2. Owners whom are asking for such prices are those whom have been extremely successful at the rental market and thus asking for a match sale price to match the high rental they managed to secure?
On a side note, does anyone know whats the occupancy level is like in Rivergate ? All non-homestay units are all successfully rented out at sustainable yield levels ?
Singapore is only RECOVERING now not RECOVERED. People now is paying recovered price. WHY, WHY,WHY....Prices now is selling at end 2007 and early 2008 when the economy is at it peak before it slump in oct 2008. It's still a long way to go before the real economy pick up.
Owners and developers can only ask for recovering price not recovered price.
These people scare miss the boat mah. Scarely the boat capsized and have to be turned around to start all over again. :scared-1:
Singapore is only RECOVERING now not RECOVERED. People now is paying recovered price. WHY, WHY,WHY....Prices now is selling at end 2007 and early 2008 when the economy is at it peak before it slump in oct 2008. It's still a long way to go before the real economy pick up.
Owners and developers can only ask for recovering price not recovered price.
The sky high prices is unfortunate, particularly for myself whom have a vested interest in procuring a unit there.
This said, I personally believe the current stalemate is a result of demand-supply. Given the existing owners are asking for such prices and considering they have not been able to sell their units (I assumed this is the case) and there is no sign of reduction on owners part... could it also mean the owners are not keen to sell and prepare to hold. My view is that, in an efficient dynamic market, demand supply forces will always drive prices down, IF owners are looking to sell.
If my presumption of owners are indeed not looking to sell is correct, any views on why that might be so ?
1. They are looking for the upturn to happen for a high priced flip later?
2. Owners whom are asking for such prices are those whom have been extremely successful at the rental market and thus asking for a match sale price to match the high rental they managed to secure?
On a side note, does anyone know whats the occupancy level is like in Rivergate ? All non-homestay units are all successfully rented out at sustainable yield levels ?
They are waiting for IR to open
IR open means property prices will go up? Scarely a lot of these people gamble until bankcrupt and come out to sell their properties at fire-sale prices? :eek:
They are waiting for IR to open
IR open means property prices will go up? Scarely a lot of these people gamble until bankcrupt and come out to sell their properties at fire-sale prices? :eek:
May b may b not ... depends but since it is only less than 1 year ... I guess they can at least gamble on this one first loh :2cents:
IR open means property prices will go up? Scarely a lot of these people gamble until bankcrupt and come out to sell their properties at fire-sale prices? :eek:
i wonder even under optimistic assumptions how much can the IRs contribute the to the economy?
did the govt say how much??
bargain hunter
03-07-09, 00:43
I was looking to get a unit there as well but even at the lows of 1200, it would have been quite a stretch for me so i had no choice but to stay out. I guess owners are holding out at higher asking price because the sentiment had been strong given all the news about sold out projects, Ass censure Sai asking for 1350psf, One Devonshire and Residences @ Kiliney doing good sales at 1700 to 1900psf. However, the reality of transactions is different from plain raising of asking prices. These are prices that people are no longer willing to bite for Rivergate. Many Singaporeans have a wierd mentality. They would rather buy from developer at higher prices than buy resale/subsale, especially if the 1st owner is making a profit. Thus, if the owners are really keen to sell, they will realise that their asking price is not realistic and will start lowering their prices somewhat. However, the buyers could be quite comfortable buying at 13xxpsf to 15xxpsf at the moment.
Since Lippo's units were sold mainly to owner-occupiers, that might help the rental situation a bit for the rest of the Rivergate units. However, I am not sure what kind of yield they have been able to fetch but I believe the rental rates for many units are less than ideal. From what I know, the occupancy rate is not bad for Rivergate but my guess is it came at lowered rentals. Only selected units with really good views or the occasional high budget sucker tenant had been rented out at good rates and those are the rates you see quoted by agents or publications. :)
The sky high prices is unfortunate, particularly for myself whom have a vested interest in procuring a unit there.
This said, I personally believe the current stalemate is a result of demand-supply. Given the existing owners are asking for such prices and considering they have not been able to sell their units (I assumed this is the case) and there is no sign of reduction on owners part... could it also mean the owners are not keen to sell and prepare to hold. My view is that, in an efficient dynamic market, demand supply forces will always drive prices down, IF owners are looking to sell.
If my presumption of owners are indeed not looking to sell is correct, any views on why that might be so ?
1. They are looking for the upturn to happen for a high priced flip later?
2. Owners whom are asking for such prices are those whom have been extremely successful at the rental market and thus asking for a match sale price to match the high rental they managed to secure?
On a side note, does anyone know whats the occupancy level is like in Rivergate ? All non-homestay units are all successfully rented out at sustainable yield levels ?
Heard that 3 bedders now only commanding $5k pm or even less! If the unit is 1500 sqft, then rental is only about $3.33 psf pm.
If buyer buys at $1300 psf, he will be staring at about 3% gross yield (GROSS YIELD ok, NET YIELD left about 2%!).
If buyer buys at $1500 psf, he will be staring at about 2.66% gross yield (NET YIELD about 1.66%! -> Even less than loan interest charges!)
I was looking to get a unit there as well but even at the lows of 1200, it would have been quite a stretch for me so i had no choice but to stay out. I guess owners are holding out at higher asking price because the sentiment had been strong given all the news about sold out projects, Ass censure Sai asking for 1350psf, One Devonshire and Residences @ Kiliney doing good sales at 1700 to 1900psf. However, the reality of transactions is different from plain raising of asking prices. These are prices that people are no longer willing to bite for Rivergate. Many Singaporeans have a wierd mentality. They would rather buy from developer at higher prices than buy resale/subsale, especially if the 1st owner is making a profit. Thus, if the owners are really keen to sell, they will realise that their asking price is not realistic and will start lowering their prices somewhat. However, the buyers could be quite comfortable buying at 13xxpsf to 15xxpsf at the moment.
Since Lippo's units were sold mainly to owner-occupiers, that might help the rental situation a bit for the rest of the Rivergate units. However, I am not sure what kind of yield they have been able to fetch but I believe the rental rates for many units are less than ideal. From what I know, the occupancy rate is not bad for Rivergate but my guess is it came at lowered rentals. Only selected units with really good views or the occasional high budget sucker tenant had been rented out at good rates and those are the rates you see quoted by agents or publications. :)
bargain hunter
03-07-09, 09:24
yup, it really varies quite a bit. Better 3 bedders can be rented out at 6.5k but less desirable ones went for 5k and like you said now slightly below 5k. i guess this 1300 to 1500psf range is more or less the short term peak hit, that's why buyers unwilling to go up to 1600psf. in the meantime, less desirable units asking also raise to 1600psf hahaha.
Heard that 3 bedders now only commanding $5k pm or even less! If the unit is 1500 sqft, then rental is only about $3.33 psf pm.
If buyer buys at $1300 psf, he will be staring at about 3% gross yield (GROSS YIELD ok, NET YIELD left about 2%!).
If buyer buys at $1500 psf, he will be staring at about 2.66% gross yield (NET YIELD about 1.66%! -> Even less than loan interest charges!)
stalingrad
03-07-09, 10:09
Heard that 3 bedders now only commanding $5k pm or even less! If the unit is 1500 sqft, then rental is only about $3.33 psf pm.
If buyer buys at $1300 psf, he will be staring at about 3% gross yield (GROSS YIELD ok, NET YIELD left about 2%!).
If buyer buys at $1500 psf, he will be staring at about 2.66% gross yield (NET YIELD about 1.66%! -> Even less than loan interest charges!)
That just tells you how crazy the market is. those that are crazy enough to buy at these prices are doomed to lose a lot of money when the price crashes to 900 psf. Even at 900 psf, the gross yield is not really fantastic, only about 5%. but rental is going to continue to fall, driving the gross yield for the owners to levels lower than 5% even at 900 plus psf.
so, citing Mr. goh, caveat emptor.
That just tells you how crazy the market is. those that are crazy enough to buy at these prices are doomed to lose a lot of money when the price crashes to 900 psf. Even at 900 psf, the gross yield is not really fantastic, only about 5%. but rental is going to continue to fall, driving the gross yield for the owners to levels lower than 5% even at 900 plus psf.
so, citing Mr. goh, caveat emptor.
Dear Stalingrad,
I notice that you have been having very very negative comments about RG. You also predicted on several occasion that the prices for RG will tumble down soon. In the last post, you use the number $900.
I am interested to know, why did you make such assumption, and why at $900 or $700?
I am interested to see how you look at things and what basis...
If you don't mind sharing. There is no right or wrong anyway. This is the future we are talking about. You and I are just making an educated guess. That's all.
stalingrad
03-07-09, 10:25
Dear Stalingrad,
I notice that you have been having very very negative comments about RG. You also predicted on several occasion that the prices for RG will tumble down soon. In the last post, you use the number $900.
I am interested to know, why did you make such assumption, and why at $900 or $700?
I am interested to see how you look at things and what basis...
If you don't mind sharing. There is no right or wrong anyway. This is the future we are talking about. You and I are just making an educated guess. That's all.
RG appeals to mainly expats, so it is mostly owned by investors/speculators. My wife once said that she would not live there, as there are too many foreigners hanging around there drunk and looking for cheap thrills. And there are no good schools in the area. thus, it is reasonable to assume that the rental yield at RG is highly correlated with tourism and GDP growth, both of which are going to be below the trend line for several years. Tourism is going to be hit hard as the L-shaped recovery becomes apparent to all.
RG is going to get hit really hard for another reason. It is the target of speculators, those that buy but not wiling to live in the development. when a condo is targeted by the speculators, that means it does not have good fundamentals and its price is supported by something like a ponzi scheme. thus, the price is likely to over-shoot either on the upside or the down side. thus, I predict the price will go below 1000. 700 is not entirely out of the question, but that would become a reality only if economy really tanks, which is unlikely given that politicians are printing money like crazy to support the economy.
bottom line, this is no a develpment for family, and as a speculator-infested development, RG is going to have wild swing in price, so if you buy today, be prepared to take a rough ride.
listen to my wife, she said "even at 1000 psf, I wouldn't live there. I don't want to mingle with wild tourists in that area." that sums it up.
Property_Owner
03-07-09, 10:33
RG appeals to mainly expats, so it is mostly owned by investors/speculators. My wife once said that she would not live there, as there are too many foreigners hanging around there drunk and looking for cheap thrills. And there are no good schools in the area. thus, it is reasonable to assume that the rental yield at RG is highly correlated with tourism and GDP growth, both of which are going to be below the trend line for several years. Tourism is going to be hit hard as the L-shaped recovery becomes apparent to all.
RG is going to get hit really hard for another reason. It is the target of speculators, those that buy but not wiling to live in the development. when a condo is targeted by the speculators, that means it does not have good fundamentals and its price is supported by something like a ponzi scheme. thus, the price is likely to over-shoot either on the upside or the down side. thus, I predict the price will go below 1000. 700 is not entirely out of the question, but that would become a reality only if economy really tanks, which is unlikely given that politicians are printing money like crazy to support the economy.
bottom line, this is no a develpment for family, and as a speculator-infested development, RG is going to have wild swing in price, so if you buy today, be prepared to take a rough ride.
listen to my wife, she said "even at 1000 psf, I wouldn't live there. I don't want to mingle with wild tourists in that area." that sums it up.
Your wife writes for HER WORLD?
stalingrad
03-07-09, 10:38
Your wife writes for HER WORLD?
my wife is not a genius, and think like an average singaporean. That makes her sentiments a reliable barometer for where the market is going to go.
by the way, to predict where the price for RG will go, just keep you eyes on STI. When the STI goes below 1600, it is time for RG to go below 1000 psf again. gentlemen, that is the signal to guy.
RG appeals to mainly expats, so it is mostly owned by investors/speculators. My wife once said that she would not live there, as there are too many foreigners hanging around there drunk and looking for cheap thrills. And there are no good schools in the area. thus, it is reasonable to assume that the rental yield at RG is highly correlated with tourism and GDP growth, both of which are going to be below the trend line for several years. Tourism is going to be hit hard as the L-shaped recovery becomes apparent to all.
RG is going to get hit really hard for another reason. It is the target of speculators, those that buy but not wiling to live in the development. when a condo is targeted by the speculators, that means it does not have good fundamentals and its price is supported by something like a ponzi scheme. thus, the price is likely to over-shoot either on the upside or the down side. thus, I predict the price will go below 1000. 700 is not entirely out of the question, but that would become a reality only if economy really tanks, which is unlikely given that politicians are printing money like crazy to support the economy.
bottom line, this is no a develpment for family, and as a speculator-infested development, RG is going to have wild swing in price, so if you buy today, be prepared to take a rough ride.
listen to my wife, she said "even at 1000 psf, I wouldn't live there. I don't want to mingle with wild tourists in that area." that sums it up.
Thanks for sharing,
A few things that i agree and there are some i don't.
1) I woudl not stay there myself as well. It is too "posh" for me. I got nothing against Ang Moh, but i like to be able to pop downstairs in my singlet and shorts. I will look really out of place doing that in that area.
2) $700 is not entirely possible. Agree too. nothing is entirely impossible. however, if you believe in resistent and support, you will know that it will take a lot for RG to go to $700. Agree?
3) RG and for that matter, the whole Mohd Sultan area are really pretty much an expat area. Just like mid Levels in Hong Kong, or Hong Qiao in Shanghai. That doesn't seem to have any effect on the investment value of these area. Lack of local residential demand may not necessarily be a bad thing. It may be also worthy to note that in a slum period, both investment properties and residential properties suffer a reduction.
4) At current price. Nowadays, for me to buy a place, i would check with the bank to ensure that i am able to get a bank loan prior to handing over the 1% check. ie. most of the owner in RG, would already have a bank loan in place or paid cash for the apartment. Interest rate is at record low anyway, If i take a 80% loan of a 1.5 million property, my loan amount is 1.2 million thereabout. factoring in a 2% interest (there are banks offering lower) essentially i can rent out at $3.5k and still covers my interest portion. i don't know about others, but if i can cover my interest, there is no real incentive for me to reduce my selling price.
5) Rental squeeze is always present in any economy in a lull period. from Botsuna to New York. What is worth noting is also, D9,10 and 11. Have and probably always will have an advantage over the rest of singapore. Given that rental drop, there will always be others who could not afford the rental in D9 10 and 11 with their previous allowance, now can move here. Of course the opposit happens as well. I have been thru enough cycles in my life so far, my apartment in D9 has never been empty... othskirts always have empty periods inbetween. Of course having said that, we have to be realistic in terms of rental price.
my wife is not a genius, and think like an average singaporean. That makes her sentiments a reliable barometer for where the market is going to go.
by the way, to predict where the price for RG will go, just keep you eyes on STI. When the STI goes below 1600, it is time for RG to go below 1000 psf again. gentlemen, that is the signal to guy.
Would you mind sharing also, why do you think that STI will go to 1600? and why not 1400 or 1800? similarly, why is 1600 a good time to buy?
don't get me wrong, i just want some flavour on how you arrive at those numbers.
I do agree with your wife, when it comes to staying and making it a HOME, it is very personal... it is not something that i would do, just because it is cheap...
stalingrad
03-07-09, 10:58
Thanks for sharing your thoughts from a local perspective. I look at things mainly from a expat perspective, although my wife is a singaporean.
I predicted many things correctly before. I predicted that Tamasek holdings and GIC would lose a lot of money on their investments in Citibank, UBS and Merill lynch, and I made the predictions before Jim Rogers did. I make the predictions because I knew that this recession is different from all others and will not blow over very soon. It turned out that I was right.
I still believe that there will be no recovery in the traditional sense untill 2011 or 2012, and thus have not commit new money at all to investments of any kind. I am waiting for S&P to hit 650 before investing again.
Property_Owner
03-07-09, 11:10
Thanks for sharing your thoughts from a local perspective. I look at things mainly from a expat perspective, although my wife is a singaporean.
I predicted many things correctly before. I predicted that Tamasek holdings and GIC would lose a lot of money on their investments in Citibank, UBS and Merill lynch, and I made the predictions before Jim Rogers did. I make the predictions because I knew that this recession is different from all others and will not blow over very soon. It turned out that I was right.
I still believe that there will be no recovery in the traditional sense untill 2011 or 2012, and thus have not commit new money at all to investments of any kind. I am waiting for S&P to hit 650 before investing again.
Charles W. Goodyear got a contender here.
my wife is not a genius, and think like an average singaporean. That makes her sentiments a reliable barometer for where the market is going to go.
You are lucky. My wife is also an average Singaporean which will buy regards on the price as long as she like it. :doh:
Charles W. Goodyear got a contender here.
I wonder how much short Mr Stalin has for S&P500, must be increasing his position on a daily basis :D While Jim Rogers shorted Citi/BAC, Mr Stalin must have even bigger positions then.:p
stalingrad
03-07-09, 11:24
I wonder how much short Mr Stalin has for S&P500, must be increasing his position on a daily basis :D
I am not short anything. While I predict that S&P will test the low again this summer, I don't know when that will happen. I am just not adding new money to my existing positions.
basically, I have batten down the hatches and will remain immobile for a while. I already own a condo, and will not buy more until STI hits 1600.
bargain hunter
03-07-09, 11:25
i share your sentiments on no recovery until 2011 or 2012 or even 2013?! but i do not understand why RG should hit 900psf "soon" as you mentioned. I would expect 900psf to be achieved in 2011 to 2013 if we are following your scenario for the economy, meaning later rather than sooner.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts from a local perspective. I look at things mainly from a expat perspective, although my wife is a singaporean.
I predicted many things correctly before. I predicted that Tamasek holdings and GIC would lose a lot of money on their investments in Citibank, UBS and Merill lynch, and I made the predictions before Jim Rogers did. I make the predictions because I knew that this recession is different from all others and will not blow over very soon. It turned out that I was right.
I still believe that there will be no recovery in the traditional sense untill 2011 or 2012, and thus have not commit new money at all to investments of any kind. I am waiting for S&P to hit 650 before investing again.
stalingrad
03-07-09, 11:27
i share your sentiments on no recovery until 2011 or 2012 or even 2013?! but i do not understand why RG should hit 900psf "soon" as you mentioned. I would expect 900psf to be achieved in 2011 to 2013 if we are following your scenario for the economy, meaning later rather than sooner.
No, soon is not the right word. I predicted in another posting in this forum that RG will fall below 1000 by the end of 2010. you are more bullish than I am.
stalingrad
03-07-09, 11:31
I wonder how much short Mr Stalin has for S&P500, must be increasing his position on a daily basis :D While Jim Rogers shorted Citi/BAC, Mr Stalin must have even bigger positions then.:p
you are wrong. Jim rogers is not short anything either. he said that with the politicians printing money furiously, dow may hit 20000 or even 30000. He is obviously joking. he worries that short positions may generate losses in the short term if people still hand on to the green shoot therory.
bargain hunter
03-07-09, 11:41
err...i read somewhere that you said "soon", that's why i was surprised. end 2010 by your scenario is reasonable. I am more bullish? i am expecting 2011 to 2013 (when no one even wants to look at properties to buy just like in 2002 to 2004 hee). probably the signal will come when the number of postings in this forum decreases.
No, soon is not the right word. I predicted in another posting in this forum that RG will fall below 1000 by the end of 2010. you are more bullish than I am.
When the correlation between commodities, EM and developed equities are so strong (even higher than pre-Lehman!!!)............
plus volatility so low (VIX lower than pre-Lehman!!!).............
and volume so low (S&P 500, STI, HSI)........
Not hard to imagine what's going to happen next...........
you are wrong. Jim rogers is not short anything either. he said that with the politicians printing money furiously, dow may hit 20000 or even 30000. He is obviously joking. he worries that short positions may generate losses in the short term if people still hand on to the green shoot therory.
Jim Rogers shorted Citi/BAC back in 2007 ... since u said you predicted b4 him, then why don't u shorted Citi/BAC back in 2007/early 2008?
stalingrad
03-07-09, 11:55
Jim Rogers shorted Citi/BAC back in 2007 ... since u said you predicted b4 him, then why don't u shorted Citi/BAC back in 2007/early 2008?
I did not short Citi or Merill lynch as for the same reason. I did not know when the stocks would tank, although I knew they would tank eventually. this is the risk that all short investors have to bear.
stalingrad
03-07-09, 11:56
When the correlation between commodities, EM and developed equities are so strong (even higher than pre-Lehman!!!)............
plus volatility so low (VIX lower than pre-Lehman!!!).............
and volume so low (S&P 500, STI, HSI)........
Not hard to imagine what's going to happen next...........
Your are obviously not black swan. Black swan predicted that the march lows will be tested.
I still believe that there will be no recovery in the traditional sense untill 2011 or 2012, and thus have not commit new money at all to investments of any kind. I am waiting for S&P to hit 650 before investing again.
I beg to differ.
I agree that there is no recovery in 2009. However, 2010 will be different due to the ready of IR.
Tourist arrival will increase again generating new tourist dollars to a new high. Retail and hotel will benefits. With new inflow of foreigners, rental and property market should benefits as well. 2010 will be in recovery and by 2011 or 2012, the economy has already recovered.
Would you mind sharing also, why do you think that STI will go to 1600? and why not 1400 or 1800? similarly, why is 1600 a good time to buy?
don't get me wrong, i just want some flavour on how you arrive at those numbers.
I do agree with your wife, when it comes to staying and making it a HOME, it is very personal... it is not something that i would do, just because it is cheap...
when it comes to home, i like katong or bt timah.. familiarity i guess ~ :ashamed1:
Your are obviously not black swan. Black swan predicted that the march lows will be tested.
Ha ha.......may I know what's the message that you decipher from my previous post???
Have a great weekend
Straits Time July 4
Is property rally sustainable?
......
...... Analysts say a sustained increase in the price index that develops into a full-blown rally by end of the year is unlikely. A more probable scenario is a plateau: prices and sales stabilizing at their current levels for the next few months, with occasional moderate dips or increases, until there is more certainty about economic outlook next year.
Would-be buyers hoping for another crash in the market are likely to be disappointed unless a major shock takes place, such as a delayed economic recovery, a stock market collapse or H1N1 virus turning more deadly, analysts say.
In fact many dire predictions trumpeted by bears have failed to materialise. Fewer expatriates have left the country than expected. Unemployment is below the all time time in 2003.
Home owners and buyers are still able to afford their properties, especially as they have lowered their debt levels and increased their savings. The surprisingly low level of mortgagee sales so far this year - half that during Asian Financial Crisis -seems to bear this out.
Concern about oversupply of new homes crashing prices have abated in the light of the robust take-up of recent launches. Instead, low interest rates are encouraging buyers to take up mortgages.
The gravity defying rise in HDB resale flat prices, which hit an all time high in the second quarter, provides a firm floor for prices of mass market condos and helps support all the other price levels.
On the other hand, sellers who hope to hold out for a marked improvement in prices, could end up waiting a long time.
For one thing, the stock market resurgence appears to be tapering off as sentiments give way to the sobering fundamentals of an uncertain economic recovery, underscored by still rising unemployment in the United States.
Anecdotally, buyers are still price sensitive, a further sign of the fragility of their confidence, although more seem willing to jump on the bandwagon for fear if rising prices in future.
Demand may also be limited. Most buyers now are owner-occupiers who were shut out of the 2007 market surge and are unleashing their pent-up demand. When this runs out, sellers and developers will be relying on investors and foreigners to pick up the slack, which may not happen as rentals are expected to continue falling with more homes being completed.
.......
.......
So it ultimately comes down to which typical Singaporean home buyer behavior wins out: the panic of being left out of a property boom or the fear of being left high and dry if there is a slump.
________________________________________________________
The all time favourite question on everyone's mind.
I guess that's what many buyers who recently bought were thinking.
1) either better buy now before prices continue climbing
2) or more realistically "No need to rush but yet at the same point no point waiting if there is a dream home"
________________________________________________________
The all time favourite question on everyone's mind.
I guess that's what many buyers who recently bought were thinking.
1) either better buy now before prices continue climbing
2) or more realistically "No need to rush but yet at the same point no point waiting if there is a dream home"
if for own stay, faster buy already!
if for investment..................................... i dunno ........ :D
if for own stay, faster buy already!
if for investment..................................... i dunno ........ :D
Why faster buy for home stay and not for investment???
What do you think the market will be heading for the next 6 months???
below are the analysts said :-
"Analysts say a sustained increase in the price index that develops into a full-blown rally by end of the year is unlikely. A more probable scenario is a plateau: prices and sales stabilizing at their current levels for the next few months, with occasional moderate dips or increases, until there is more certainty about economic outlook next year."
Why faster buy for home stay and not for investment???
What do you think the market will be heading for the next 6 months???
below are the analysts said :-
"Analysts say a sustained increase in the price index that develops into a full-blown rally by end of the year is unlikely. A more probable scenario is a plateau: prices and sales stabilizing at their current levels for the next few months, with occasional moderate dips or increases, until there is more certainty about economic outlook next year."
also dont understand the logic, why own stay can buy at high price ?
also dont understand the logic, why own stay can buy at high price ?
exactly. apparently agents dont think it hurts you to buy high and pay unnecessary high mortgage. Its just their spin to make sure at least someones buying.
would you rather buy and live in the same property for 500k or 700k? It's really that simple.
now what the market does is a different thing all together but this is one lame argument.
As a home owner and investor I would want to enter the market for both at the same time.
also dont understand the logic, why own stay can buy at high price ?
Would-be buyers hoping for another crash in the market are likely to be disappointed unless a major shock takes place, such as a delayed economic recovery, a stock market collapse or H1N1 virus turning more deadly, analysts say.
i believe what he meant was if for own stay, can buy if find ideal home since u can end up waiting indefinitely for substantial drop if the property trend follows plateau as predicted by analysts. but for investment, a wait and see approach may be more prudent in view of the uncertainty. if prices drop then can make a move, if prices go up then wait for next cycle lo. no rush if you already got home.
I just bought an own stay unit a few months back.
My opinion is :
Own stay : The main factor here is affordability and how much u like the area or location. Trust me, finding a place you really like and want to stay rooted for the next decade is no simple feat. U will have to draw out a list of things u want. Units per floor, view, location, private life or not, total number of units in the condo, facilities, and the list goes on and on. So if you find one that really fit the bill. You should try to get it! Esp if the Feng Shui Master also says that is a perfect house for you!
Why people say price may not be very relevant, it means as long as you can comfortably afford it. Paying an additional 50K or so for a unit that suit you perfectly is worth more than the 50K or so (depending on how rich you are la!).
For investment : The simple rules. Pricing. Expectation of the market in the next 6-12 months. Yield. Location, Master plan, etc.
Thus you may end up being able to buy a 1.5 million property for investment, but cannot afford the same 1.5 million property for own stay. Investment property, if you choose correctly, will feed itself. The rental will pay for everything, instalments, maint, property tax, agents comm, etc. And still able to give u a few dollars to bring home !
Thus you may end up being able to buy a 1.5 million property for investment, but cannot afford the same 1.5 million property for own stay.
1.5 million property is for the 'Ang Mo' to stay, so that we can 'chop their carrot head'
Let them pay for our enjoyment. chop! chop! chop! chop ang mo ang mo kow.
Why faster buy for home stay and not for investment???
What do you think the market will be heading for the next 6 months???
below are the analysts said :-
"Analysts say a sustained increase in the price index that develops into a full-blown rally by end of the year is unlikely. A more probable scenario is a plateau: prices and sales stabilizing at their current levels for the next few months, with occasional moderate dips or increases, until there is more certainty about economic outlook next year."
ok clarify a bit, i not agent.. wat i meant is for own stay u shld have faster bought, ideally a few mths ago hehe.. i hv said so since start of yr :D bcos no one can so zhun & time the price bottom accurately. obviously u go buy now during a mini "boom" u will be helping agents and sellers to chase the price up and that is a no no ~
u see hor for own stay u may not get the unit u want, so u see a unit u like and want & as long as price is within affordability for u i say buy liao.. between paying the diff of 50 to 100psf and not getting ur choice unit to stay u hv to make a decision lor
for investment, investors care less whether low floor high floor afternoon sun etc.. so choice of units matters less compared to mkt has bottomed or not
also dont understand the logic, why own stay can buy at high price ?
not asking anyone to buy at high price lah :o
what is your 'high price'?
is it the bubble peak high of 07-08 or 04-05? or is it high to based on one's affordability?
i reckon the ppl entering the mkt this past 1 to 2 mths contributing to the mini pty rally are the ones who can afford the peak price of 07-08. But no one wants to buy high right? so they stayed out. Now that mkt has plunged from the peak, prices hv become more affordable to them, so they went in.
those who totally cannot afford the peak price of 07-08, and still find the current price (dropped from 07-08 peak) too high, my advice is stay out...
ok clarify a bit, i not agent.. wat i meant is for own stay u shld have faster bought, ideally a few mths ago hehe.. i hv said so since start of yr :D bcos no one can so zhun & time the price bottom accurately. obviously u go buy now during a mini "boom" u will be helping agents and sellers to chase the price up and that is a no no ~
u see hor for own stay u may not get the unit u want, so u see a unit u like and want & as long as price is within affordability for u i say buy liao.. between paying the diff of 50 to 100psf and not getting ur choice unit to stay u hv to make a decision lor
for investment, investors care less whether low floor high floor afternoon sun etc.. so choice of units matters less compared to mkt has bottomed or not
Right, I see your point. Few months ago (6 months) is a good buy for home stay. For now I would not buy even if I see something I like, as there will be plenty of new or old (but good) units coming along.
By year end prices will fall again...unless Real economy really improved.
Real property move up only when Real economy move up.
Right, I see your point. Few months ago (6 months) is a good buy for home stay. For now I would not buy even if I see something I like, as there will be plenty of new or old (but good) units coming along.
By year end prices will fall again...unless Real economy really improved.
Real property move up only when Real economy move up.
yes i also feel the mkt is trending down, so if not in any real hurry or picky over choice units it is better to wait :o
RG appeals to mainly expats, so it is mostly owned by investors/speculators. My wife once said that she would not live there, as there are too many foreigners hanging around there drunk and looking for cheap thrills. And there are no good schools in the area. thus, it is reasonable to assume that the rental yield at RG is highly correlated with tourism and GDP growth, both of which are going to be below the trend line for several years. Tourism is going to be hit hard as the L-shaped recovery becomes apparent to all.
RG is going to get hit really hard for another reason. It is the target of speculators, those that buy but not wiling to live in the development. when a condo is targeted by the speculators, that means it does not have good fundamentals and its price is supported by something like a ponzi scheme. thus, the price is likely to over-shoot either on the upside or the down side. thus, I predict the price will go below 1000. 700 is not entirely out of the question, but that would become a reality only if economy really tanks, which is unlikely given that politicians are printing money like crazy to support the economy.
bottom line, this is no a develpment for family, and as a speculator-infested development, RG is going to have wild swing in price, so if you buy today, be prepared to take a rough ride.
listen to my wife, she said "even at 1000 psf, I wouldn't live there. I don't want to mingle with wild tourists in that area." that sums it up.
So you rather stay at the Carabelle, besides the AYE?, where there are no tourists to hit on your wife?
If you have been to that part of town, there are not as much wild tourists as your wife fears. Tenants for RG and those in the vicinity do not rely on tourists. Tourist arrivals have no bearing on lease take-ups.. Tourists stay at hotels for short stay.
Tenants are long stay expats, which depends on economic growth.
If RG will hit 900 psf as what you expects, what will the Carabelle be in end 2010 for comparison in your "expert" opinion?
So you rather stay at the Carabelle, besides the AYE?, where there are no tourists to hit on your wife?
If you have been to that part of town, there are not as much wild tourists as your wife fears. Tenants for RG and those in the vicinity do not rely on tourists. Tourist arrivals have no bearing on lease take-ups.. Tourists stay at hotels for short stay.
Tenants are long stay expats, which depends on economic growth.
If RG will hit 900 psf as what you expects, what will the Carabelle be in end 2010 for comparison in your "expert" opinion?
Wa.. it's even worse.. If tourists, at least the wife gets hit on once a while.. if it's long-stay tenant, the wife gets hit every day while you are at work..
actually, even for own stay, you wouldnt want your property to depreciate 50% few years down the road and reach back the peak price at what you have paid for. unless for those who really in need of a place urgently, why need to buy one for own stay now. this is not the time to buy at all.
I just bought an own stay unit a few months back.
My opinion is :
Own stay : The main factor here is affordability and how much u like the area or location. Trust me, finding a place you really like and want to stay rooted for the next decade is no simple feat. U will have to draw out a list of things u want. Units per floor, view, location, private life or not, total number of units in the condo, facilities, and the list goes on and on. So if you find one that really fit the bill. You should try to get it! Esp if the Feng Shui Master also says that is a perfect house for you!
Why people say price may not be very relevant, it means as long as you can comfortably afford it. Paying an additional 50K or so for a unit that suit you perfectly is worth more than the 50K or so (depending on how rich you are la!).
For investment : The simple rules. Pricing. Expectation of the market in the next 6-12 months. Yield. Location, Master plan, etc.
Thus you may end up being able to buy a 1.5 million property for investment, but cannot afford the same 1.5 million property for own stay. Investment property, if you choose correctly, will feed itself. The rental will pay for everything, instalments, maint, property tax, agents comm, etc. And still able to give u a few dollars to bring home !
i think you are quite right.
but, when even a bank dare not match the asking price, i guess, it is very clear, price is too high.
when the property price turn bullish without fundament support like economy growth, inflow of foreign talent (rental), improve job markets, etc. price is too high.
:2cents:
not asking anyone to buy at high price lah :o
what is your 'high price'?
is it the bubble peak high of 07-08 or 04-05? or is it high to based on one's affordability?
i reckon the ppl entering the mkt this past 1 to 2 mths contributing to the mini pty rally are the ones who can afford the peak price of 07-08. But no one wants to buy high right? so they stayed out. Now that mkt has plunged from the peak, prices hv become more affordable to them, so they went in.
those who totally cannot afford the peak price of 07-08, and still find the current price (dropped from 07-08 peak) too high, my advice is stay out...
proud owner
07-07-09, 23:18
i think you are quite right.
but, when even a bank dare not match the asking price, i guess, it is very clear, price is too high.
when the property price turn bullish without fundament support like economy growth, inflow of foreign talent (rental), improve job markets, etc. price is too high.
:2cents:
if a bank doesnt match UP to a sellign price for an old project, how can they match the even higher price of new launch ??
i suspect new launches may have some kind of 'guarantee' from developers ..or some kind of credit tied to the developers ..as oppose to individuals for old projects ..
just doesnt make sense if bank cant match say 1300 psf for Valley park but can grant the same or higher for rivergate ?
if a bank doesnt match UP to a sellign price for an old project, how can they match the even higher price of new launch ??
i suspect new launches may have some kind of 'guarantee' from developers ..or some kind of credit tied to the developers ..as oppose to individuals for old projects ..
just doesnt make sense if bank cant match say 1300 psf for Valley park but can grant the same or higher for rivergate ?
yah, i also think there must be some kind of benefit or risk sharing the developer tie up with banks.
proud owner
07-07-09, 23:30
yah, i also think there must be some kind of benefit or risk sharing the developer tie up with banks.
remember not too long ago .. developers and valuer had a conversation ??
and valuers put the blame on banks being conservatives ...?
after that all of a sudden new launches banks match ALL their psf ...
actually, even for own stay, you wouldnt want your property to depreciate 50% few years down the road and reach back the peak price at what you have paid for. unless for those who really in need of a place urgently, why need to buy one for own stay now. this is not the time to buy at all.
I agree that no one will want the price of their property to fall by 50%. But, like you have just mentioned, unless urgently needed a place. Since last year Nov08 onwards, a lot of people put off purchases of property till this May-09. Although it is just only half a year, a lot of people are caught off guard by the sudden increase in price. If they are urgently in need a place, they most likely panic now which contributed the increase as well.
actually, even for own stay, you wouldnt want your property to depreciate 50% few years down the road and reach back the peak price at what you have paid for. unless for those who really in need of a place urgently, why need to buy one for own stay now. this is not the time to buy at all.
maybe got 2 kinds of own-stay..
1. own stay with a view to asset appreciation.. half invest half own stay kind.. most ppl fall into this category
2. really own stay... those cash rich ppl who paid over 800k for HDB kind ~ lol
maybe got 2 kinds of own-stay..
1. own stay with a view to asset appreciation.. half invest half own stay kind.. most ppl fall into this category
2. really own stay... those cash rich ppl who paid over 800k for HDB kind ~ lol
IMO, buying 99LH mass market condo for own stay is plain risky especially if you have to borrow 80%. From 1996 until now, only those who bought in 1998 and those bought in 2003/2004 make $$. The return is much worse compared to HDB. You are paying a high price for own stay in this case.
IMO, buying 99LH mass market condo for own stay is plain risky especially if you have to borrow 80%. From 1996 until now, only those who bought in 1998 and those bought in 2003/2004 make $$. The return is much worse compared to HDB. You are paying a high price for own stay in this case.
yes as u already said liao, mass market condo 99LH
if looking for return as opposed to own stay, then location is key..
e.g. the sail is 99LH, 1111 units and the quality is mass market, but is high investment grade
i think most of the time investment and own stay r mutually exclusive, v difficult to be able to hv your cake and eat it too
this is wat the seasoned pty investors tell me wor... :2cents:
to me...of course i do not represents the general public.
buying for investment vs buying for own stay... there is no difference.... except that if you are buying for your own stay, you need to be sure you are comfortable in that area...
Otherwise, ownstay or investments, i am sure you do not want your property to depreciate... in fact 9 out of 10, if the price is right, will sell the "ownstay" place anyway!
also, for ownstay, all the more the pricing is important... because, one day, if the bank decides to make a margin call, you cannot liquidate and pay off the loan...
so i really don't know why people always differentiate between investments and ownstay...
to me...of course i do not represents the general public.
buying for investment vs buying for own stay... there is no difference.... except that if you are buying for your own stay, you need to be sure you are comfortable in that area...
Otherwise, ownstay or investments, i am sure you do not want your property to depreciate... in fact 9 out of 10, if the price is right, will sell the "ownstay" place anyway!
also, for ownstay, all the more the pricing is important... because, one day, if the bank decides to make a margin call, you cannot liquidate and pay off the loan...
so i really don't know why people always differentiate between investments and ownstay...
if u hv family, own stay means u need a 3 or 4 bedder
investment u heck care liao, studio or 2 bedder can already.. location is important bcos some area studio dun make sense or bigger units easier to rent out, whereas for other areas bigger units dun make investment sense, or harder to rent or dispose.. just my puny 2 cents :o
if u hv family, own stay means u need a 3 or 4 bedder
investment u heck care liao, studio or 2 bedder can already.. location is important bcos some area studio dun make sense or bigger units easier to rent out, whereas for other areas bigger units dun make investment sense, or harder to rent or dispose.. just my puny 2 cents :o
I also beg to differ with this. For own stay, i may need a 3 bedder or more.. or i may just need a 2 bedder... more and more young families chose to be childless or only one kid. Essentially there isn't a need for a big space.
For investments, i also won't restrict myself to 2 bed rooms unless we factor in affordability. if i can afford it, i'll definitely get a bigger unit. bear in mind, bigger units are easier to rent out these days. Market seems to be flooded with 2 bedrooms out for rental.
my 2 cents worth too.
I also beg to differ with this. For own stay, i may need a 3 bedder or more.. or i may just need a 2 bedder... more and more young families chose to be childless or only one kid. Essentially there isn't a need for a big space.
For investments, i also won't restrict myself to 2 bed rooms unless we factor in affordability. if i can afford it, i'll definitely get a bigger unit. bear in mind, bigger units are easier to rent out these days. Market seems to be flooded with 2 bedrooms out for rental.
my 2 cents worth too.
It depends on your lifestyle. If you want to stay near cultural/entertainment events then stay at City Hall/Raffles Place/Dhoby Ghaut area is good. IF you want a quiet/serene lifestyle (like those in WFW threads), then place like Bedok Reservoir or Upper Bukit Timah is good. Buying something that has big investment potential + suit your lifestyle sometimes are conflicting requirements.
Cultural
Shopping
Peace, quiet, good air
Seaview
Convenience to work
Near good school for kid
The list goes on
there are many good location with good investment value that meet these so called " conflicting requirement" such as meyer road, shelford, nassim, Ardmore, etc. dont have to go to bedok or Upper BT... and definitely no conflicting requirements.
It depends on your lifestyle. If you want to stay near cultural/entertainment events then stay at City Hall/Raffles Place/Dhoby Ghaut area is good. IF you want a quiet/serene lifestyle (like those in WFW threads), then place like Bedok Reservoir or Upper Bukit Timah is good. Buying something that has big investment potential + suit your lifestyle sometimes are conflicting requirements.
Cultural
Shopping
Peace, quiet, good air
Seaview
Convenience to work
Near good school for kid
The list goes on
there are many good location with good investment value that meet these so called " conflicting requirement" such as meyer road, shelford, nassim, Ardmore, etc. dont have to go to bedok or Upper BT... and definitely no conflicting requirements.
Yah, but many people cannot afford it. Most important requirement is affordability.
interested in RG but my budget is only max 1k psf ... would like to seek the opinion of the lao jiaos here ... in your opinion, do you think RG will hit 1k psf or below?
i see that there are > 160 units on sale and > 320 units for rent atm.. will the price hold at the current avg 1.2k~1.3k level?
i u buy in march its under 1K.. roberston 100, watermark.. now ah... wait long long liao
if you work on the basis of yield, yes.. the price shoudl be around 1k psf... however, given that quite a few buyers / owners of RG bought it above that price, it may be unlikely that they will sell it at below that given that it is not that difficult to get loans these days.
but if it gets to that stage, i'll be more than happy to have a look at that project. Right now it is also out of my reach, economically.
proud owner
14-07-09, 22:37
if you work on the basis of yield, yes.. the price shoudl be around 1k psf... however, given that quite a few buyers / owners of RG bought it above that price, it may be unlikely that they will sell it at below that given that it is not that difficult to get loans these days.
but if it gets to that stage, i'll be more than happy to have a look at that project. Right now it is also out of my reach, economically.
i dont believe there are alot of RG owners who bought to stay ..
the great pct of owners are trying to rent them out .. what kind of yield are we talking about ?
its miserable .. but some will argue that its still higher than leaving the money in the bank ... if you belong to this group then go buy and rent out ..
if you want higher return .. just forget RG ... for that matter .. forget most projects launched lately
i dont believe there are alot of RG owners who bought to stay ..
the great pct of owners are trying to rent them out .. what kind of yield are we talking about ?
its miserable .. but some will argue that its still higher than leaving the money in the bank ... if you belong to this group then go buy and rent out ..
if you want higher return .. just forget RG ... for that matter .. forget most projects launched lately
I think the right question to ask is besides property in SG, where else can you get higher return with the same risk. I am in favor of BRIC stocks but it has higher volatility.
proud owner
14-07-09, 22:51
I think the right question to ask is besides property in SG, where else can you get higher return with the same risk. I am in favor of BRIC stocks but it has higher volatility.
property is NOT liquid asset ... between buy and sell at least 2 mths in between
proud owner
27-07-09, 09:56
this rivergate thread is almost dead now ..
dont see any contributions at all
hey owners ... any comments , good and bad , now that you have moved in ...
also owners who have rented out their units, how is the yield??
lets have some honest replies please ..
it will help potential buyers who are still keen to buy this project..
Property_Owner
27-07-09, 09:59
Ai yo. Now of course quiet. all buyer buying AMK and Thomas mah. Pal, still in US?
proud owner
27-07-09, 10:09
Ai yo. Now of course quiet. all buyer buying AMK and Thomas mah. Pal, still in US?
ya lah still here at least 3 yrs
Property_Owner
27-07-09, 10:10
ya lah still here at least 3 yrs
I see, wifey with you? can't chong then :D:D:D
this rivergate thread is almost dead now ..
dont see any contributions at all
it is dead because this whole thread is full of dreamers and nobody wants to be seen here. $1k psf rivergate hahhahahha chio kah lam par dua
if they wanted to discuss living at rivergate, they will go to the main rivergate thread, not this speculative wishful thinking thread....
:cutedoggy::D. Those dreamers run road liao. What about the one who bet the "little brother" on the chopping board? Should request for ceremony for that. :hell-hath-no-fury:
it is dead because this whole thread is full of dreamers and nobody wants to be seen here. $1k psf rivergate hahhahahha chio kah lam par dua
if they wanted to discuss living at rivergate, they will go to the main rivergate thread, not this speculative wishful thinking thread....
Of course dead as the price is now so far from $1000psf.
this rivergate thread is almost dead now ..
dont see any contributions at all
hey owners ... any comments , good and bad , now that you have moved in ...
also owners who have rented out their units, how is the yield??
lets have some honest replies please ..
it will help potential buyers who are still keen to buy this project..
bargain hunter
27-07-09, 15:54
J-Dog did say in another thread that its still early. have until year end mah...Prepare the ceremony for 31st Dec 2009. Target 800psf.
:cutedoggy::D. Those dreamers run road liao. What about the one who bet the "little brother" on the chopping board? Should request for ceremony for that. :hell-hath-no-fury:
Definitely can chop.
Today's caveat for 1880 psf!! OMG:cheers6:
bargain hunter
04-08-09, 22:59
aiyah, that's for a penthouse sold by capitaland.
average units still 1600psf and those are also by capitaland. has not heard of any individual sellers successfully transacted at 1600 and above yet. anyone know of any recently?
Definitely can chop.
Today's caveat for 1880 psf!! OMG:cheers6:
bargain hunter
07-08-09, 15:55
yeah, do test and let me know the result. it will be interesting because i heard that the project has recently gone very quiet. 1) Sellers all ask for the sky 1600psf and above. 2) a lot of units transacted in past few months including lippo's at 13xx to 15xx so perhaps the 'pent-up' demand for this project has been filled hee.
let me try test market..
might be old facts, but i received a 1700 psf offer.
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