mr funny
10-10-08, 12:54
http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Singapore/Story/STIStory_288066.html
Oct 10, 2008
S'pore slips into recession
# MTI lowers 2008 forecast to 3%, from earlier 4-5%
# MAS moves to ease monetary policy
# Inflation has peaked
SINGAPORE has slipped into its first recession since 2002 after its economy declined for a second straight quarter, prompting the central bank to ease monetary policy favoring gains in its currency in an effort to confront the downturn.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on Friday also revised downwards Singapore's full-year growth forecast to around 3 per cent from an earlier estimate of 4 to 5 per cent, citing a slowdown in the global economy and key domestic sectors.
At the same time, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said it was easing monetary policy for the first time in more than four years. It said on Friday it is shifting to a 'zero-percent appreciation' stance and will intervene to reduce "excessive volatility'.
There will be no re-centering of the band of change in the so-called width, the range in which it is allowed to trade, said MAS.
Central banks around the world are loosening monetary policy and cutting interest rates as an escalating global credit crisis that's toppled banks in the US and Europe saps growth.
MTI said the impact of the worsening US financial crisis and the deepening credit crunch had weakened US consumer sentiment, which will affect demand from Asia and the rest of the world.
On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter annualised basis, real GDP declined by 6.3 per cent in the third quarter after contracting 5.7 per cent in the previous quarter, the ministry said.
While it did not describe the economy as being in recession, a technical recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction in economic output.
Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a 0.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter rise in gross domestic product, the value of goods and services produced in the economy.
Singapore's last technical recession occurred in 2002 while the most recent full-scale recession was in 2001, when the economy contracted 2.4 per cent during the year.
Compared with the third quarter of last year, the ministry said Singapore's economy contracted by 0.5 per cent in real terms, against 0.8 per cent expansion foreseen in the Dow Jones poll.
In August the government had revised down its full-year GDP forecast to 4.0-5.0 per cent but since then, external economic conditions have deteriorated more than expected and some sectors of the economy have weakened significantly because of industry-specific or domestic factors, the ministry said.
'Singapore's export-oriented sectors, such as manufacturing, will be affected,' it added.
Last year the economy expanded 7.7 per cent but after years of growth, signs of a slowdown emerged with recent disappointing trade data and contractions in the important manufacturing sector, which includes the export-dependent electronic and pharmaceutical industries.
In August, key non-oil domestic exports fell for the fourth straight month, with electronic shipments continuing a decline begun in February 2007, while manufacturing dropped by 12.2 per cent.
The August fall in output followed a 21.5 per cent decline the previous month.
The government's preliminary third-quarter GDP estimates are based largely on data from July and August, and are subject to revision.
Inflation peaks
Inflation, which reached a 26-year high earlier this year, has peaked, said MAS. Consumer prices will rise between 6 per cent and 7 per cent this year, and gains will ease to between 2.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent in 2009, it predicted.
'Against the backdrop of a weakening external economic environment and continuing stresses in global financial markets, the growth of the Singapore economy is expected to remain below potential in the period ahead,' said MAS.
'Inflation is expected to trend down in 2009 as the global and domestic economies slow.'
Exports slump
Singapore's US$161 billion (S$239 billion) economy declined 0.5 per cent last quarter from a year earlier, compared with a revised 2.3 per cent gain between April and June.
Growth has deteriorated as a slump in export demand forced factories to cut production, tourist arrivals faltered and a real-estate boom ended, reported Bloomberg news.
The island's manufacturing industry, which accounts for a quarter of the economy, contracted 11.5 per cent last quarter from a year earlier, compared with a revised 4.9 per cent drop in the previous three months, according to today's report.
Singapore's government expects exports to decline as much as 4 per cent this year, and the island's shipments of electronics goods have fallen for 19 consecutive months.
Financial services
Services climbed 6.1 per cent in the third quarter from a year earlier, slowing from a 7 per cent pace in the previous three months. The city-state will probably miss a government target of 10.8 million visitors in 2008, the tourism board said on Sept 23, after visitor arrivals dropped 7.7 per cent in August.
'The financial services sector is likely to see slower growth in the coming months as the ongoing global financial crisis has heightened uncertainties for sentiment-sensitive segments such as stocks trading and fund management activities,' said MIT.
The construction industry grew 7.8 per cent, easing from a revised rate of 19.8 per cent in the previous quarter.
Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index slumped 7.3 per cent to its lowest level since November 2004 on Friday in opening trade after the economic data and policy statement.
The Singapore dollar rose to $1.4724 per US dollar after the central bank's announcement compared with $1.4780 as traders adjusted positions after the widely expected move. -- AFP, REUTERS
Oct 10, 2008
S'pore slips into recession
# MTI lowers 2008 forecast to 3%, from earlier 4-5%
# MAS moves to ease monetary policy
# Inflation has peaked
SINGAPORE has slipped into its first recession since 2002 after its economy declined for a second straight quarter, prompting the central bank to ease monetary policy favoring gains in its currency in an effort to confront the downturn.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on Friday also revised downwards Singapore's full-year growth forecast to around 3 per cent from an earlier estimate of 4 to 5 per cent, citing a slowdown in the global economy and key domestic sectors.
At the same time, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said it was easing monetary policy for the first time in more than four years. It said on Friday it is shifting to a 'zero-percent appreciation' stance and will intervene to reduce "excessive volatility'.
There will be no re-centering of the band of change in the so-called width, the range in which it is allowed to trade, said MAS.
Central banks around the world are loosening monetary policy and cutting interest rates as an escalating global credit crisis that's toppled banks in the US and Europe saps growth.
MTI said the impact of the worsening US financial crisis and the deepening credit crunch had weakened US consumer sentiment, which will affect demand from Asia and the rest of the world.
On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter annualised basis, real GDP declined by 6.3 per cent in the third quarter after contracting 5.7 per cent in the previous quarter, the ministry said.
While it did not describe the economy as being in recession, a technical recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction in economic output.
Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a 0.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter rise in gross domestic product, the value of goods and services produced in the economy.
Singapore's last technical recession occurred in 2002 while the most recent full-scale recession was in 2001, when the economy contracted 2.4 per cent during the year.
Compared with the third quarter of last year, the ministry said Singapore's economy contracted by 0.5 per cent in real terms, against 0.8 per cent expansion foreseen in the Dow Jones poll.
In August the government had revised down its full-year GDP forecast to 4.0-5.0 per cent but since then, external economic conditions have deteriorated more than expected and some sectors of the economy have weakened significantly because of industry-specific or domestic factors, the ministry said.
'Singapore's export-oriented sectors, such as manufacturing, will be affected,' it added.
Last year the economy expanded 7.7 per cent but after years of growth, signs of a slowdown emerged with recent disappointing trade data and contractions in the important manufacturing sector, which includes the export-dependent electronic and pharmaceutical industries.
In August, key non-oil domestic exports fell for the fourth straight month, with electronic shipments continuing a decline begun in February 2007, while manufacturing dropped by 12.2 per cent.
The August fall in output followed a 21.5 per cent decline the previous month.
The government's preliminary third-quarter GDP estimates are based largely on data from July and August, and are subject to revision.
Inflation peaks
Inflation, which reached a 26-year high earlier this year, has peaked, said MAS. Consumer prices will rise between 6 per cent and 7 per cent this year, and gains will ease to between 2.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent in 2009, it predicted.
'Against the backdrop of a weakening external economic environment and continuing stresses in global financial markets, the growth of the Singapore economy is expected to remain below potential in the period ahead,' said MAS.
'Inflation is expected to trend down in 2009 as the global and domestic economies slow.'
Exports slump
Singapore's US$161 billion (S$239 billion) economy declined 0.5 per cent last quarter from a year earlier, compared with a revised 2.3 per cent gain between April and June.
Growth has deteriorated as a slump in export demand forced factories to cut production, tourist arrivals faltered and a real-estate boom ended, reported Bloomberg news.
The island's manufacturing industry, which accounts for a quarter of the economy, contracted 11.5 per cent last quarter from a year earlier, compared with a revised 4.9 per cent drop in the previous three months, according to today's report.
Singapore's government expects exports to decline as much as 4 per cent this year, and the island's shipments of electronics goods have fallen for 19 consecutive months.
Financial services
Services climbed 6.1 per cent in the third quarter from a year earlier, slowing from a 7 per cent pace in the previous three months. The city-state will probably miss a government target of 10.8 million visitors in 2008, the tourism board said on Sept 23, after visitor arrivals dropped 7.7 per cent in August.
'The financial services sector is likely to see slower growth in the coming months as the ongoing global financial crisis has heightened uncertainties for sentiment-sensitive segments such as stocks trading and fund management activities,' said MIT.
The construction industry grew 7.8 per cent, easing from a revised rate of 19.8 per cent in the previous quarter.
Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index slumped 7.3 per cent to its lowest level since November 2004 on Friday in opening trade after the economic data and policy statement.
The Singapore dollar rose to $1.4724 per US dollar after the central bank's announcement compared with $1.4780 as traders adjusted positions after the widely expected move. -- AFP, REUTERS