New Reporter
17-05-24, 12:55
More singles moving out, smaller households: URA chief on Singapore’s housing demand despite declining birth rate
May 13, 2024
DESPITE its declining birth rate, Singapore still needs to build large-scale housing developments in areas such as Paya Lebar Air Base (PLAB) and the turf clubs in Bukit Timah and Kranji, Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) chief executive Lim Eng Hwee said. The Republic’s housing needs have shifted over time, “partly driven by increase in population, but a lot more driven by change in lifestyles”.
The resident population in 1990 was 2,735,868. This grew by 51.6 per cent over two decades to 4,149,253 in 2023.
Pointing to the gradual reduction in size of Singapore’s households over time, Lim noted that the average household size among its resident population – Singaporeans and permanent residents – in 1990 was 4.25, compared with 3.11 in 2023.
The desire of many singles to move out and live alone – a point gleaned from engagement for URA’s recent long-term plan review – is one of the driving forces that will continue to spur the need for development, Lim said.
To meet such needs, land-scarce Singapore has historically relied on reclamation – about a quarter of the country’s 735 sq km of land is reclaimed.
Asked about the country’s reclamation limits, Lim said: “There is still some potential to grow, but it’s quite limited.”
He noted that there are many competing uses within Singapore’s waters that make reclamation decisions “not so straightforward”.
“Singapore is a small dot in this world. The ability to be connected to the world by air and by sea is very critical,” he said, adding that a large part of the sea space is needed for maritime purposes, so that Singapore continues to maintain sea links with the world.
Navigational channels will need to remain open as an international obligation, said Lim, while anchorages have to be open as well to support port operations.
Speaking to The Straits Times in an interview tied to URA’s 50th anniversary, Lim also touched on other topics relating to Singapore’s current and future development needs, and changes in planning approaches over time.
Singapore’s two cruise terminals will be consolidated in the coming years, with the cruise centre in HarbourFront set to move, so that a continuous promenade can be established as part of the Greater Southern Waterfront.
Lim described the terminals’ forthcoming consolidation as a “small move” that will make a huge difference and allow the authorities to “stitch up the entire waterfront” from Labrador Nature Park through to the Keppel-Tanjong Pagar area, Marina Bay and the future Long Island.
Three city port terminals near the cruise centre in HarbourFront – Tanjong Pagar, Keppel and Brani – will move to Tuas by 2027, as previously announced.
The Republic’s other cruise centre – Marina Bay Cruise Centre Singapore, which opened in 2012 – is located in Marina South, and was reported in 2018 to be under consideration for expansion.
“With the port moving, there’s a lot of infrastructural work that needs to be done – some reclamation, and the cruise hub will be formed as part of that,” Lim said.
“And when all the infrastructure is done, we will progressively build up the area.”
Plans to merge the cruise terminals, he said, are just one example of infrastructure consolidation that the authorities have pursued in recent years to free up land for other uses.
Lim said that over the past three to four decades, the authorities have recognised the importance of flexibility and to “always have the ability to make big changes, in the event that there’s a big driving force that changes the way we live, work and play”.
Land “with a big footprint” is needed in such situations, said Lim, as this gives planners the ability to make major moves such as restructuring the city and towns.
He referred to these tracts of land as “option areas”, explaining that they are “large areas where we have some idea what it can be used for – so infrastructure-wise we have catered for them – but the uses are not ingrained, it is not fixed, there are a few options and scenarios that we can turn the area into”.
Among such areas that Lim cited are existing military training grounds, Changi East – which he noted has potential for further reclamation, and Paya Lebar Air Base, which will be relocated in the 2030s.
Lim, 58, who joined URA in 1990 and was its chief planner from 2009 to 2017, said the decision to move PLAB was very difficult to make, due to the importance of security and the challenge of moving an airbase.
“It took us 10 years of internal discussion before the government took the decision that yes, we are prepared to consolidate the footprint of our aviation needs, and our air force’s needs, into some of the existing areas.”
Like the planned consolidation of Singapore’s cruise terminals and port services, PLAB’s move will improve future connectivity.
“Without the airbase that dissects the east to the north-east, you can now string things together – the transportation network will be very much enhanced,” said Lim, who added that this will improve the connectivity between Singapore’s east and west.
He also said the removal of the airbase – which frees up 800ha of space – will allow planners to explore optimising the land around it, as height constraints on developments will be lifted.
Turning to the the Long Island project for the East Coast area, Lim said it is expected to take up about 10 sq km of sea space, and the authorities are studying how to minimise the impact this will have on maritime needs.
He added that sea space also has to be set aside for aquaculture to meet food resilience goals, and for recreational opportunities for Singaporeans.
Changes to planning through the years
Reflecting on changes in planning processes over the years, Lim said planning is now a lot more science-based.
“In the past, a lot was based on theories, based on intuition, based on ‘good sense’,” he said, adding that a key difference is planners now have access to data, which helps them better understand how people live.
For instance, he said, transport data tells planners traffic patterns “almost live”, allowing them to discern where people live and work, as well as the mode of transport they take.
Such information informs the planning of transport infrastructure, he said, adding that planners now know which locations are “most accessible” across the island and have opportunities to set up job nodes at these locations, beyond regional centres such as Tampines, Jurong and Woodlands.
More will be shared at an exhibition on decentralisation that URA will hold later in 2024, as part of its engagement for the upcoming draft masterplan that will be launched in 2025.
Lim cited the exhibition, as well as others such as an ongoing roving exhibition on recreational amenities, as examples of how planning has become more consultative.
“We don’t finish cooking a plan, show it to the public, hopefully to get support and to take in some feedback,” he said.
“We involve people a lot more in this exercise, from understanding the needs, to sharing some of the initial concepts and thinking early, so that we can take in input and then showcase the plans as we progress, rather than just at the final exhibition.”
As the URA moves beyond its golden jubilee, Lim said its “redevelopment” mandate – enshrined in the agency’s name – and its responsibility for recycling land in Singapore, will continue to be relevant.
“We have to constantly find new ways of making our city attractive and meeting needs. Over time, there will be redevelopment and recycling of land – rebuilding brownfield sites – instead of just opening up new greenfield sites whenever there is a need.”
Looking ahead to projects such as the Greater Southern Waterfront and the Long Island, Lim said these represent “a whole new Singapore that future planners will have a lot of fun reimagining”.
Citing the authorities’ “long-term thinking to steward our resources”, Lim said he is upbeat about Singapore’s future.
“We have flexibility built in at all levels,” he said, adding that “there is enough room” to meet Singaporeans’ needs, which the authorities will continue to take on board through engagement.
“I’m optimistic that we will keep Singapore continuously attractive, but we need to constantly be on the lookout for what else might make sense for us, and learn from other people as well.”
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/singapore/more-singles-moving-out-smaller-households-ura-chief-singapores-housing-demand-despite-declining
May 13, 2024
DESPITE its declining birth rate, Singapore still needs to build large-scale housing developments in areas such as Paya Lebar Air Base (PLAB) and the turf clubs in Bukit Timah and Kranji, Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) chief executive Lim Eng Hwee said. The Republic’s housing needs have shifted over time, “partly driven by increase in population, but a lot more driven by change in lifestyles”.
The resident population in 1990 was 2,735,868. This grew by 51.6 per cent over two decades to 4,149,253 in 2023.
Pointing to the gradual reduction in size of Singapore’s households over time, Lim noted that the average household size among its resident population – Singaporeans and permanent residents – in 1990 was 4.25, compared with 3.11 in 2023.
The desire of many singles to move out and live alone – a point gleaned from engagement for URA’s recent long-term plan review – is one of the driving forces that will continue to spur the need for development, Lim said.
To meet such needs, land-scarce Singapore has historically relied on reclamation – about a quarter of the country’s 735 sq km of land is reclaimed.
Asked about the country’s reclamation limits, Lim said: “There is still some potential to grow, but it’s quite limited.”
He noted that there are many competing uses within Singapore’s waters that make reclamation decisions “not so straightforward”.
“Singapore is a small dot in this world. The ability to be connected to the world by air and by sea is very critical,” he said, adding that a large part of the sea space is needed for maritime purposes, so that Singapore continues to maintain sea links with the world.
Navigational channels will need to remain open as an international obligation, said Lim, while anchorages have to be open as well to support port operations.
Speaking to The Straits Times in an interview tied to URA’s 50th anniversary, Lim also touched on other topics relating to Singapore’s current and future development needs, and changes in planning approaches over time.
Singapore’s two cruise terminals will be consolidated in the coming years, with the cruise centre in HarbourFront set to move, so that a continuous promenade can be established as part of the Greater Southern Waterfront.
Lim described the terminals’ forthcoming consolidation as a “small move” that will make a huge difference and allow the authorities to “stitch up the entire waterfront” from Labrador Nature Park through to the Keppel-Tanjong Pagar area, Marina Bay and the future Long Island.
Three city port terminals near the cruise centre in HarbourFront – Tanjong Pagar, Keppel and Brani – will move to Tuas by 2027, as previously announced.
The Republic’s other cruise centre – Marina Bay Cruise Centre Singapore, which opened in 2012 – is located in Marina South, and was reported in 2018 to be under consideration for expansion.
“With the port moving, there’s a lot of infrastructural work that needs to be done – some reclamation, and the cruise hub will be formed as part of that,” Lim said.
“And when all the infrastructure is done, we will progressively build up the area.”
Plans to merge the cruise terminals, he said, are just one example of infrastructure consolidation that the authorities have pursued in recent years to free up land for other uses.
Lim said that over the past three to four decades, the authorities have recognised the importance of flexibility and to “always have the ability to make big changes, in the event that there’s a big driving force that changes the way we live, work and play”.
Land “with a big footprint” is needed in such situations, said Lim, as this gives planners the ability to make major moves such as restructuring the city and towns.
He referred to these tracts of land as “option areas”, explaining that they are “large areas where we have some idea what it can be used for – so infrastructure-wise we have catered for them – but the uses are not ingrained, it is not fixed, there are a few options and scenarios that we can turn the area into”.
Among such areas that Lim cited are existing military training grounds, Changi East – which he noted has potential for further reclamation, and Paya Lebar Air Base, which will be relocated in the 2030s.
Lim, 58, who joined URA in 1990 and was its chief planner from 2009 to 2017, said the decision to move PLAB was very difficult to make, due to the importance of security and the challenge of moving an airbase.
“It took us 10 years of internal discussion before the government took the decision that yes, we are prepared to consolidate the footprint of our aviation needs, and our air force’s needs, into some of the existing areas.”
Like the planned consolidation of Singapore’s cruise terminals and port services, PLAB’s move will improve future connectivity.
“Without the airbase that dissects the east to the north-east, you can now string things together – the transportation network will be very much enhanced,” said Lim, who added that this will improve the connectivity between Singapore’s east and west.
He also said the removal of the airbase – which frees up 800ha of space – will allow planners to explore optimising the land around it, as height constraints on developments will be lifted.
Turning to the the Long Island project for the East Coast area, Lim said it is expected to take up about 10 sq km of sea space, and the authorities are studying how to minimise the impact this will have on maritime needs.
He added that sea space also has to be set aside for aquaculture to meet food resilience goals, and for recreational opportunities for Singaporeans.
Changes to planning through the years
Reflecting on changes in planning processes over the years, Lim said planning is now a lot more science-based.
“In the past, a lot was based on theories, based on intuition, based on ‘good sense’,” he said, adding that a key difference is planners now have access to data, which helps them better understand how people live.
For instance, he said, transport data tells planners traffic patterns “almost live”, allowing them to discern where people live and work, as well as the mode of transport they take.
Such information informs the planning of transport infrastructure, he said, adding that planners now know which locations are “most accessible” across the island and have opportunities to set up job nodes at these locations, beyond regional centres such as Tampines, Jurong and Woodlands.
More will be shared at an exhibition on decentralisation that URA will hold later in 2024, as part of its engagement for the upcoming draft masterplan that will be launched in 2025.
Lim cited the exhibition, as well as others such as an ongoing roving exhibition on recreational amenities, as examples of how planning has become more consultative.
“We don’t finish cooking a plan, show it to the public, hopefully to get support and to take in some feedback,” he said.
“We involve people a lot more in this exercise, from understanding the needs, to sharing some of the initial concepts and thinking early, so that we can take in input and then showcase the plans as we progress, rather than just at the final exhibition.”
As the URA moves beyond its golden jubilee, Lim said its “redevelopment” mandate – enshrined in the agency’s name – and its responsibility for recycling land in Singapore, will continue to be relevant.
“We have to constantly find new ways of making our city attractive and meeting needs. Over time, there will be redevelopment and recycling of land – rebuilding brownfield sites – instead of just opening up new greenfield sites whenever there is a need.”
Looking ahead to projects such as the Greater Southern Waterfront and the Long Island, Lim said these represent “a whole new Singapore that future planners will have a lot of fun reimagining”.
Citing the authorities’ “long-term thinking to steward our resources”, Lim said he is upbeat about Singapore’s future.
“We have flexibility built in at all levels,” he said, adding that “there is enough room” to meet Singaporeans’ needs, which the authorities will continue to take on board through engagement.
“I’m optimistic that we will keep Singapore continuously attractive, but we need to constantly be on the lookout for what else might make sense for us, and learn from other people as well.”
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/singapore/more-singles-moving-out-smaller-households-ura-chief-singapores-housing-demand-despite-declining