New Reporter
19-12-23, 13:19
Do new HDB estates outperform on resale? Punggol data suggests so
Dec 14, 2023
RESALE prices in the new Housing and Development Board (HDB) estate of Punggol have risen at a higher-than-average pace, suggesting that early residents in a brand-new town enjoy “first-mover” advantage, a study by Mogul.sg showed.
Analysing data from 2015 to 2023, Mogul.sg’s chief research officer Nicholas Mak found that prices of Punggol’s larger flats moved up substantially in the period. Four-room flat resale prices there rose about 42 per cent in those eight years – from a median S$420,000 in 2015 to S$595,000 in 2023. Islandwide, the median price rise was 35 per cent.
Five-room flat prices jumped more, by 50 per cent, from S$450,000 in 2015 to S$675,000 in 2023, compared to a 36-per-cent gain islandwide.
https://i.imgur.com/ZgK2dVT.png
The data suggests that residents who move into a newly developed HDB town early are able to reap higher capital gains when they sell their flats, relative to residents in HDB flats in other parts of Singapore, Mak said.
He analysed prices for the period between 2015 and 2023, so as to include three-room flats in Punggol, for which resale records are available only from 2015.
OrangeTee & Tie’s senior vice-president of research and analytics, Christine Sun, said: “The stronger price growthcould be attributed to more flats reaching the minimum occupation period (MOP) in Punggol, and newer flats tend to fetch higher resale prices.”
She said 20,737 flats in Punggol reached their MOP between 2018 and 2023 – substantially more than in other estates in Singapore: 18,188 units reached MOP in Sengkang, 13,686 units in Yishun, and 9,906 units in Bukit Batok.
Lee Sze Teck, Huttons Asia’s senior director of data analytics, noted the relative newness of Punggol flats: Its five-room units are 12.4 years old on average, compared to 22.6 years islandwide. The average age of the estate’s four-room flats is nine years, against the islandwide average of 21.3 years. And Punggol’s three-room flats, the newest in the estate, are 6.6 years old on average, compared to 33.5 years elsewhere.
Lee added that the higher price growth could be due to the launch prices of Punggol’s Build-to-Order (BTO) flats being generally lower than islandwide BTO prices.
Eugene Lim, key executive officer at ERA Singapore, said: “It also helps that as a non-mature estate, Punggol enjoys a variety of amenities; it has the Waterway Point mall, and is also within reach of recreational nodes like the Punggol Regional Sport Centre and Safra Punggol. Connectivity is also set to improve with the completion of the Cross-Island (MRT) Line by 2032.”
Punggol has also benefited from an overall increase in HDB prices in Singapore, he said.
Resale prices have surged over the past three years, gaining 12.7 per cent in 2021 and 10.4 per cent in 2022. Prices have since cooled; a recent report from PropNex projects growth at 5 per cent in 2023, and 4 to 5 per cent in 2024.
Huttons’ Lee said prices in upcoming new towns like Tengah could also make similar gains as Punggol, because BTO prices there started at lower price points.
But Lim suggested that the price-growth trajectory may be slower for Tengah, possibly because of the way BTO flats will be reclassified from H2 2024, which could contain the pace of growth.
He was referring to the move to classify Build-to-Order (BTO) flats into Standard, Plus and Prime. Plus and Prime flats, which come with tighter restrictions, such as a minimum occupation period of 10 years; HDB will also claw back the subsidies upon the resale of these units.
“Whether Tengah new town sees a similar price trend would depend on how comprehensive the amenities and transportation network are,” Sun said.
ERA’s data showed that the BTO flats launched in Punggol in 2011 and 2012 were priced between $150,000 and $240,000 for a three-room flat, S$250,000 to S$380,000 for a four-room flat, and between S$330,000 and S$470,000 for a five-room one.
Going by HDB’s October BTO sales, new flats in Tengah were launched at prices starting at S$232,000 for three-room flats, at S$353,000 for four-room units and at S$460,000 for five-room ones.
Mak said: “Although the early residents who move into a newly developed HDB town may suffer more inconveniences than those in mature housing estates, they can potentially enjoy higher price appreciation of their HDB flats.
“Positive reinforcement from the government as a vibrant new town with good amenities also helps in attracting buyers”, he added.
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/property/do-new-hdb-estates-outperform-resale-punggol-data-suggests-so
Dec 14, 2023
RESALE prices in the new Housing and Development Board (HDB) estate of Punggol have risen at a higher-than-average pace, suggesting that early residents in a brand-new town enjoy “first-mover” advantage, a study by Mogul.sg showed.
Analysing data from 2015 to 2023, Mogul.sg’s chief research officer Nicholas Mak found that prices of Punggol’s larger flats moved up substantially in the period. Four-room flat resale prices there rose about 42 per cent in those eight years – from a median S$420,000 in 2015 to S$595,000 in 2023. Islandwide, the median price rise was 35 per cent.
Five-room flat prices jumped more, by 50 per cent, from S$450,000 in 2015 to S$675,000 in 2023, compared to a 36-per-cent gain islandwide.
https://i.imgur.com/ZgK2dVT.png
The data suggests that residents who move into a newly developed HDB town early are able to reap higher capital gains when they sell their flats, relative to residents in HDB flats in other parts of Singapore, Mak said.
He analysed prices for the period between 2015 and 2023, so as to include three-room flats in Punggol, for which resale records are available only from 2015.
OrangeTee & Tie’s senior vice-president of research and analytics, Christine Sun, said: “The stronger price growthcould be attributed to more flats reaching the minimum occupation period (MOP) in Punggol, and newer flats tend to fetch higher resale prices.”
She said 20,737 flats in Punggol reached their MOP between 2018 and 2023 – substantially more than in other estates in Singapore: 18,188 units reached MOP in Sengkang, 13,686 units in Yishun, and 9,906 units in Bukit Batok.
Lee Sze Teck, Huttons Asia’s senior director of data analytics, noted the relative newness of Punggol flats: Its five-room units are 12.4 years old on average, compared to 22.6 years islandwide. The average age of the estate’s four-room flats is nine years, against the islandwide average of 21.3 years. And Punggol’s three-room flats, the newest in the estate, are 6.6 years old on average, compared to 33.5 years elsewhere.
Lee added that the higher price growth could be due to the launch prices of Punggol’s Build-to-Order (BTO) flats being generally lower than islandwide BTO prices.
Eugene Lim, key executive officer at ERA Singapore, said: “It also helps that as a non-mature estate, Punggol enjoys a variety of amenities; it has the Waterway Point mall, and is also within reach of recreational nodes like the Punggol Regional Sport Centre and Safra Punggol. Connectivity is also set to improve with the completion of the Cross-Island (MRT) Line by 2032.”
Punggol has also benefited from an overall increase in HDB prices in Singapore, he said.
Resale prices have surged over the past three years, gaining 12.7 per cent in 2021 and 10.4 per cent in 2022. Prices have since cooled; a recent report from PropNex projects growth at 5 per cent in 2023, and 4 to 5 per cent in 2024.
Huttons’ Lee said prices in upcoming new towns like Tengah could also make similar gains as Punggol, because BTO prices there started at lower price points.
But Lim suggested that the price-growth trajectory may be slower for Tengah, possibly because of the way BTO flats will be reclassified from H2 2024, which could contain the pace of growth.
He was referring to the move to classify Build-to-Order (BTO) flats into Standard, Plus and Prime. Plus and Prime flats, which come with tighter restrictions, such as a minimum occupation period of 10 years; HDB will also claw back the subsidies upon the resale of these units.
“Whether Tengah new town sees a similar price trend would depend on how comprehensive the amenities and transportation network are,” Sun said.
ERA’s data showed that the BTO flats launched in Punggol in 2011 and 2012 were priced between $150,000 and $240,000 for a three-room flat, S$250,000 to S$380,000 for a four-room flat, and between S$330,000 and S$470,000 for a five-room one.
Going by HDB’s October BTO sales, new flats in Tengah were launched at prices starting at S$232,000 for three-room flats, at S$353,000 for four-room units and at S$460,000 for five-room ones.
Mak said: “Although the early residents who move into a newly developed HDB town may suffer more inconveniences than those in mature housing estates, they can potentially enjoy higher price appreciation of their HDB flats.
“Positive reinforcement from the government as a vibrant new town with good amenities also helps in attracting buyers”, he added.
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/property/do-new-hdb-estates-outperform-resale-punggol-data-suggests-so