Defensive stance helps GIC post 20-year annualised real rate of return of 2.7%

[reporter2]

GIC REPORT

Defensive stance helps GIC post 20-year annualised real rate of return of 2.7%

Tue, Jul 28, 2020 - 5:50 AM
UPDATED Tue, Jul 28, 2020 - 8:51 AM

Angela Tan

Singapore


DESPITE the turbulence unleashed by the Covid-19 pandemic, GIC's portfolio remains resilient and Singapore's foreign reserves under its charge have been protected by the sovereign wealth fund's defensive stance and focus on its mandate, which is to first preserve and then enhance the value of the assets under its care.

Over a 20-year period spanning April 2000 to March 2020, GIC's portfolio achieved an annualised nominal rate of return of 4.6 per cent. Taking into account global inflation, its annualised real rate of return stood at 2.7 per cent over the same period, compared to 3.4 per cent for the 20-year period spanning April 1999 to March 2019.

GIC is one of the three reserves management entities in Singapore, alongside the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and Temasek Holdings. The three supplement the annual Budget through the Net Investment Returns Contribution (NIRC), the single largest revenue source for the Singapore government.

Speaking to the media over a Zoom conference call on Monday, GIC chief executive officer Lim Chow Kiat said the reduction was largely due to the way GIC's 20-year rolling return is computed, rather than Covid-19 or recent market movements. For the past two-three years, very strong returns from the tech bubble years dropped out of the rolling 20-year window. GIC uses the rolling 20-year real rate of return as its primary evaluation metric for its investment performance.

"This year again we have to bear that drop. What happens next year is a function of what drops out but also what comes in. We cannot predict what happens in the next six-nine months but we do hope that with less of the drag from 20 years ago, and if this year turns out better and we are able to add value on top of what market can deliver, perhaps next year when we meet we can have a more positive picture."

On its latest performance, he said, "GIC continues to deliver a resilient long term return, which means we have generated a return over and above global inflation. We have protected the reserves and in fact, added value, despite the uncertain investment environment.

"This was helped by the fact that this time round we came into the pandemic with a defensive position."

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GIC had not anticipated the pandemic to be the catalyst for the global downturn, but efforts to diversify and reduce its portfolio risks have enabled it to cushion the impact and better navigate the market turmoil.

In recent years, it has taken an increasingly cautious macro stance on concerns over rising risks such as high asset prices, weakening fundamentals, limited policy room, and growing geopolitical uncertainties, which could have significantly and permanently impaired its portfolio.

"Fortunately, we had pre-emptively de-risked by reducing our allocation to equities in favour of cash, and evaluating investment transactions with more caution," Mr Lim said.

"This defensive position has helped cushion our portfolio from the worst of the volatility in the financial markets in the first quarter of 2020."

Global equity markets fell by more than 20 per cent in the first quarter of 2020, the worst quarterly performance since the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, according to the MSCI world Index.

Over the past five years, GIC's portfolio returns have consistently been less volatile than its risk reference portfolio, while providing a creditable, sustained long-term real return, Mr Lim said.

In line with the decline in equity markets, the proportion of developed and emerging markets public equities in GIC's portfolio fell to 15 per cent each of the portfolio mix, from 19 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively the previous year. Private asset allocation grew. The share of bonds and cash rose as these lower risk assets benefited from the flight to safety.

Geographical mix - which reflects the global market composition and bottom-up opportunities sourced by its investment teams - remained stable with the US accounting for 34 per cent of the portfolio, Eurozone 13 per cent, United Kingdom 6 per cent, Asia ex-Japan 19 per cent, Japan 13 per cent, Latin America 2 per cent, Middle East, Africa and the rest of Europe 5 per cent and the rest of the world 8 per cent.

GIC now stands poised to invest the country's foreign reserves and seize opportunities that can enhance long-term returns, Mr Lim said. While healthcare and technology stocks are clear winners amid the Covid-19 outbreak, many are over-priced. Value is emerging in sectors sold down 30-50 per cent by the market. These include the consumer sector, infrastructure and energy, data centres and logistics. GIC remains bullish about the US and Asia. Asean, Taiwan and India have been identified as key as economies diversify their supply chain beyond China.

On whether GIC will continue to keep its defensive stance, Mr Lee said it would depend on how prices move, how opportunities present themselves and GIC's assessment of these two factors.

"We have quite a bit of dry powder that we can deploy,'' he said. "If we can do that, you will see the defensive stance reduce. It is just a natural consequence of deploying capital."

But if the environment worsens, GIC will have to act to protect its capital and may even be more defensive. Over the last year, GIC made almost 60 publicly announced deals.

For now, the timing and the shape of the recovery remain "highly uncertain", Mr Lim said.

Outcomes from the Covid-19 are wide ranging and how they play out depend on the virus; the spillover effect from vulnerable sectors like travel, trade and energy on the economy and consumer behaviour; and policy responses to stabilise markets, support the economy and keep supply chains open.

GIC has identified four major shifts that will shape the investment landscape.

First, uncharted policy making, which has introduced risks for inflation and currencies that investors have not had to contend. Second, intensifying headwinds for globalisation, which is likely to hurt productivity growth and be particularly detrimental to emerging markets that have historically relied on foreign investments and export-led growth.

Third, rising headwinds for Asia, but the region is expected to outperform other regions over the long run. It is estimated that some 40 per cent of global consumption will take place in Asia by 2040, according to a McKinsey report.

And lastly, industry consolidation to rise, where larger companies could become even bigger and stronger.

[reporter2]

GIC REPORT

GIC sees 4 major shifts that threaten future returns, raise volatility

Tue, Jul 28, 2020

Natalie Choy

Singapore


TENSIONS between the US and China have been worsened by the economic pain from the pandemic. This will add to urgent calls for diversification of supply chains, though a "major retreat" from globalisation will hurt productivity growth, said GIC.

In its latest annual report, the Singapore sovereign wealth fund noted that global supply chains are likely to see "significant" structural change in the post Covid-19 world.

It has identified "intensified" globalisation headwinds as one of four major shifts that will likely result in lower future returns and increased market volatility.

"Supply chain shifts have been talked about for at least two to three years because of the trade conflict between US and China. Covid-19 added to the urgency for some companies to diversify, to build resilience," GIC chief executive officer Lim Chow Kiat told reporters at a media briefing on Monday.

Against this backdrop, companies are likely to accelerate the adoption of tech such as advanced robotics, additive manufacturing and content digitalisation. This will help shorten supply chains and reduce the exposure of goods production to trade.

Companies will also look to diversify their production geographically, or bring production closer to home.

While these shifts make sense for companies to ensure a secure and stable supply of goods amid macro uncertainties, a "major retreat" in globalisation will impede productivity growth, said Mr Lim.

Less efficient global allocation of resources, less competition between companies and less knowledge and technology transfers can be expected. Businesses will also have reduced access to quality and cheaper inputs while consumers will see higher prices and less variety.

"This could be detrimental to emerging markets that have relied on a more export and foreign investment-led growth model," said Mr Lim.

The re-shoring of supply chains out of China into Asian economies is also expected to pick up pace.

Tech-related manufacturing will likely find a new home in Taiwan or South Korea, while other lower-cost manufacturing lines could shift into Vietnam and Indonesia - seen as key markets given their expanding young workforce and large domestic market, GIC chief economist Jeffrey Jaensubhakij told reporters.

That said, he noted that supply chain shifts out of China will be far from immediate.

"China's got a fantastic manufacturing centre, with all the suppliers close by. You can start producing in bulk very quickly. Those are advantages that are very hard to ship out of China no matter how much you try, so we expect it to happen, but to happen slowly," said Dr Jaensubhakij.

An early investor into Asia, GIC said it continues to maintain confidence in the region amid rising headwinds. This comes on the back of improving institutions and macroeconomic policies as well as growth in exports and intra-regional trade.

GIC showed a 32 per cent exposure to Asia, going by the geographical distribution of its portfolio as at March 31, 2020. This included 13 per cent out of Japan, and the rest from other Asian markets.

"Although not everything is hunky-dory in Asia, there are many good things going for it," said Mr Lim.

Over the longer term, GIC is expecting "solid" growth in the region due to urbanisation and middle-income growth, investments in infrastructure and human capital, as well as deeper regional integration of economies and capital markets.

"These factors should continue to generate self-sustaining growth in Asia, including China, and drive its outperformance over the long term," said Mr Lim.

As the world emerges from the virus fallout, higher levels of debt are expected to pose a drag on economic recovery globally.

Companies will have to borrow even more to weather the fall in revenue during the economic slowdown. Meanwhile, the large and rapid response by policymakers globally to prop up their economies has also sharply increased public debt levels and shifted risk onto government balance sheets, said GIC.

Such elevated levels of debt in turn limit the extent interest rates could rise without causing a significant slowdown in the economy.

"We've already had issues of high indebtedness (pre-crisis) and now we're adding a lot more debt, whether it's in the public or private sector," said Mr Lim.

The unprecedented shifts in policymaking - which may be difficult to calibrate or reverse once the economy normalises - can lead to increased risk of higher inflation for investors over the medium term.

Currency moves could also play a larger role in asset returns for a global investor, said GIC. As the effectiveness of the interest rate channel for monetary policy decreases, more emphasis will be placed on increasing purchases of government debt and potentially capping interest rates. This could lead to capital flight and currency depreciations.

In this challenging operating environment, greater industry consolidation is also expected with many virus-battered firms forced to file for bankruptcy, secure additional funding, or to seek mergers or other strategic alternatives.

While fiscal support has been introduced, the default rate of global listed companies has already risen to the highest level since the global financial crisis, according to S&P Global.

Smaller companies are particularly vulnerable to consolidation as many entered the crisis with high leverage while also facing rising competitive pressures, including tech disruption, said Mr Lim. "This pandemic will make big companies even bigger. Those with strong balance sheets and tech capabilities are very advantaged."

Private equity dry powder reached record highs in June 2020, providing more support for industry consolidation. Long-term investors could also play an important role in providing capital to sustain good businesses through these difficult times, said GIC.

That said, the challenge of high valuations further adds to the profound uncertainty in the investing environment.

Recent policy stimulus has lifted asset prices to levels where investors risk overpaying and suffering permanent impairment. "In a lot of those favourite sectors (such as healthcare and tech), the valuation has gone up significantly. In terms of deploying more capital, one has to be quite careful," said Mr Lim.