Buying Attitude Index - Q3 2018

[richwang]

Why this index?
In Singapore, there is no official buyer-driven (not developer-driven) index to show Buyers' Attitude for investment residential properties. This forum might be the best place to fill in that gap.

How does it work?
Everyone is entitled for one vote, the index is calculated by:
the percentage of bulls - percentage of bears
(Please vote even if you are neutral because it will change the overall percentage scores).

Historical Numbers:

Quarter, Votes, Index
Q4 2012, 65, +12
Q1 2013, 35, +6
Q2 2013, 56, 0
Q3, 2013, 59, -34
Q4, 2013, 53, -45
Q1, 2014, 45, -33
Q2, 2014, 43, -44
Q3, 2014, 48, -19
Q4, 2014, 29, +14
Q1, 2015, 29, +7
Q2, 2015, 20, +15
Q3, 2015, 16, +56
Q4, 2015, 7, +28
Q1, 2016, 12, +34
Q2, 2016, 16, +32
Q3, 2016, 16, +81
Q4, 2016, 11, +64
Q1, 2017, 14, +21
Q2, 2017, 13, +77
Q3, 2017, 15, +60
Q4, 2017, 9, +78
Q1, 2018, 9, +100
Q2, 2018, 8, +75

(The max of the index is 100, the minimum of the index is -100)

With less than 10 votes in a row for 3 quarters, I honestly doubt the value of this index.
I have also changed the question to narrow down to "investment residenial" because the impact of recent tax rule changes is huge. (It is always a good time to buy a property for your own stay, just like buying your own clothes, so there is no need to ask that question here).

Within net investment yield around 2%, are you still sure it is a good time to buy investment residential (meaning your 2nd, 3rd) propeorty in Singapore?

Your votes will give us a new picture of that landscope.

Thanks,
Richard

[bargain hunter]

i voted "not sure" because i don't think its a "bad time to buy". the 12, 15 and 20% absd are obviously here to stay and those who have the means will continue to buy.

[Khng8]

After the ABSD, does it make sense to buy to rent as yield may even be negative from cash flow perspective.

[Arcachon]

After the ABSD, does it make sense to buy to rent as yield may even be negative from cash flow perspective.

It makes more sense to save money in the Bank to earn interest, very safe because inflation will depreciate it.

[richwang]

amazing, for the first time in a long time, we start to turn negative.

number of votes: 3, index: 25 - 50 = -25

clearly we need more votes.

[Arcachon]

amazing, for the first time in a long time, we start to turn negative.

number of votes: 3, index: 25 - 50 = -25

clearly we need more votes.

When most say bad it is time to buy.

[bargain hunter]

amazing, for the first time in a long time, we start to turn negative.

number of votes: 3, index: 25 - 50 = -25

clearly we need more votes.

but that's because u specifically stated only investment property whereas previously, many including myself had voted for "good time to buy" and would have continued to vote so for the first time home buyers. definitely a good time to buy for them.

[richwang]

good point. I shall make a remark next to the index numbers.
indeed, the question was changed when ABSD was first introduced. I added "residential" property to distigush from commercial.
Let's monitor for 2 quarters.

Number of votes: 5, Index: 20 - 40 = -20

I still don't know why the number of votes have dropped so much (ever since advertisments introduced ... or some heated debates among forumers)?

Thanks,

[bargain hunter]

good point. I shall make a remark next to the index numbers.
indeed, the question was changed when ABSD was first introduced. I added "residential" property to distigush from commercial.
Let's monitor for 2 quarters.

Number of votes: 5, Index: 20 - 40 = -20

I still don't know why the number of votes have dropped so much (ever since advertisments introduced ... or some heated debates among forumers)?

Thanks,

i'm not irritated by the adverts. i thought heated debates is good for forum traffic? hee.

[Kelonguni]

By right more discussion is good.

But for property it is very hard to discuss with a fully open mind. For some of us who have benefited so much, we can only see the good and how to navigate the tricky situations.

For some of those who have other ways of investing, they remain convinced that everytime the property price is high, and the next bad thing is going to happen. It's either a recession coming or interest rate spiking or something colossal. They may be proven wrong for 10 years but they always have another 10 years to wait for the disaster scenario.

We see they miss the boat, they see the boat sinking.

The other thing is even if I see it as a good time to buy, what to buy is the more important question. Even in the worst of times, there are those who benefit from buying the right thing. So I do find it hard to state simply if it is a good or bad time to buy.

[Arcachon]

Facts and figures will show when is a good time to buy.

The Next step is the most difficult that is to buy.

[bargain hunter]

after 9 votes, we r all square at zero? hehehe