View Full Version : Why unemployment is the real killer in the property game
https://www.propertysoul.com/2017/06/23/why-unemployment-real-killer/
Why unemployment is the real killer in the property game
June 23, 2017
https://i1.wp.com/www.propertysoul.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/unemployment.jpg?
Last Wednesday Federal Reserve announced a quarter-point rate hike as the industry has expected. This is the second approved raise by the central bank this year. There will still be a third round most likely in September.
Why rate hike is not a big concern
But who cares about the raise of a quarter point?
Banks don’t need any excuse to raise interest rate. Mortgage payers may already be used to the banks sending them occasional mail on revised interest rates and increased installments, which are made effective next month, immediately, or backdated a month ago.
How we wish saving rates can also be raised as frequently as lending rates!
Unlike the seasonal reductions of ERP rates by LTA during school holidays, unfortunately mortgage installments will never be revised downwards (not even temporarily) when Fed lowers interest rates.
But does that bother homebuyers and mortgagors?
Well, even with a 0.25 percent rate hike, borrowers are paying an increment of under 200 bucks. This is negligible for most owners and landlords. Interest rates are still low in Singapore’s 50 years of history.
Why you should ignore GDP and unemployment rate
Last week the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) released the latest Q1 employment figures that show the lowest number of layoffs in more than a year. An economist immediately commented that this “provides a less negative signal and also coincides with tentative improvements in domestic demand”.
There are at least two official numbers announced by governments that you can conveniently ignore.
1. GDP
Jim Rogers once told Newsmax TV in an exclusive interview that he does not pay attention to “that sort of thing” (GDP figures announced by governments in different countries) for a few reasons:
– The numbers are backward looking;
– They are always revised;
– Every government has different methodologies; and
– Most governments have no clue so they just make up the numbers.
I can’t agree with him more, especially when we see governments adjust that percentage up and down all the time – the same way hawkers can’t stop flip-flopping to make roti prata.
2. Unemployment rate
It is not difficult for governments to make their labor market look good. The magic of unemployment rate is that it only counts those who are actively looking for a job, but excludes those who are “underemployed” or “economically inactive”.
The unemployed is defined as people currently not working and actively looking for work. Underemployed are people who are now working part-time while looking for a full time job. Economically inactive are “discouraged workers” who have already stopped or have given up looking for a job.
Unemployment rate low in Singapore?
Although the MOM numbers show fewer layoffs in Q1, long-term unemployment rate for residents has increased 0.8 percent. Long-term unemployed is defined as unemployed Singapore residents who are not working and actively looking for work for 25 weeks or longer.
Also, residents’ rate of re- entry into jobs after unemployed for 6 months in the first quarter is lower than in the previous quarter. This is worst for PMETs (professionals, managers, executives and technicians). The mismatch of skills and jobs for PMETs continues to be a problem.
The unemployment rate also excludes non-residents in the country.
In other countries, people who lost their jobs are still staying in the countries and are counted as unemployed.
In Singapore, foreigners on employment pass or work permit who lost their jobs or whose contracts were not renewed will have to leave the country. There is no way that they can impact our unemployment rate.
How layoffs kill the rental market
The fact is: Those unemployed foreigners who are asked to go home are the most in-demand tenants in Singapore’s soft rental market.
Vacancy rate has been hovering above 8 percent for the past year. It doesn’t help that the government continues to restrict the import of foreigners and limit the approval of PRs.
In a country with home ownership as high as 90.9 percent, where to find so many locals to fill up the empty homes, when developers can’t stop acquiring new sites and launching new projects?
That’s why it doesn’t matter how the media boosts about the recovery of the property market with encouraging sales volume and record land-bidding by developers. Rental rates of private residential units will continue to slide. Vacancy rate for completed private residential units will remain high.
CNBC published a recent article on “Singapore’s residential property market is sending mixed signals. This is what they mean”.
A landlord lamented that, in a tenant’s market he is forced to reduce rental in every renewal, and he cannot see the end of the tunnel.
Under a low-interest environment, the net return of 2 to 3 percent from a rental property may look attractive relative to other types of investment. The risk factor here is not rate hike, but the oversupply of rental units and shortage of ready tenants.
How layoffs kill the resale market
The biggest risk of mortgage payers is not rate hike too, nor oversupply or even crash of property prices. As long as they have holding power, owners can choose to ignore the bad news, continue to stay in their property or rent it out, and “invest for the long-term”.
The biggest nightmare of mortgage payers is layoffs or underemployed. And that’s exactly the time when banks go after them to top up the difference of their outstanding loan and the current market value of their property. And that’s exactly the time homebuyers realize that they have overcommitted.
The 2013 Japanese TV drama Hanzawa Naoki said it best.
“Banks will lend you umbrellas on a sunny day, but they will take them back when it is pouring.”
After the last financial crisis, governments try to solve their economic problems by printing more money. It works like magic to increase money supply, increase capital and restore prosperity.
But when the music stops, people suddenly realize that they have been buying assets that they can’t really afford to, and they have been paying debts with cheap money all this while.
Allow me to quote Marc Faber’s words here:
“So if you want to boost equity prices, or asset prices, print that much money. But as I just tried to explain, you don’t create wealth in a nation by boosting asset prices. You create wealth through employment and capital investment in factories, in infrastructure, in education, and in research and development.”
The property game doesn’t kill the cash-rich. The cash-rich don’t bother about layoffs or economic recession. The properties they acquired don’t even come with a mortgage.
The property game only kills the house-rich cash-poor – those who save just enough for the down payment; those who barely pass the TDSR test last time; those who can just nicely pay off their housing loan; and those who bought under deferred payment betting on a market recovery.
In any society at any time, the house-rich cash-poor always outnumber the cash-rich.
How do you find out who they are? Remember what Warren Buffet said?
“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”
Firstly, interest rates in Singapore have barely moved over the last few quarters despite US raising interest rates twice. The translation rate is that US Fed raised interest rates twice (totalling 0.5%), but local interest rates moved by probably 0.1% or 0.2%. Everyone says economy bad. So if economy bad, how to raise interest rates? If interest rates rise, how can economy be bad? If economy is good, what is the problem with raising interest rates? The thing I am not certain is how exchange rates (Singapore's main fiscal tool) have been adjusted and how this affects all going forward.
Secondly, on unemployment. The trend is that people who knew they were prone to job disruption have always been ultra-defensive with regard to their choice of housing. Although some of the more stable jobs could have experienced slight disruption (mainly due to technology), the picture of moderate wage growth is largely unchanged for the employed groups in growing industries. Moreover, the gig economy means more people are partially employed in some ways and are surviving.
Allow me to quote Marc Faber’s words here:
“You create wealth through employment and capital investment in factories, in infrastructure, in education, and in research and development.”
Which aspect(s) other than factories do you think Singapore is lacking in?
Thirdly, on vacancy rates. The vacancy rates have fallen from 8.7% (2016Q3) to 8.4% (2016Q4) to 8.1% (2017Q1). It is to be noted that this period coincides with the largest number of completed units in recent history, especially 2016, and yet the vacancy rates fell. What does this infer?
Moreover, we have learnt through previous and recent incidents that the affluent not only buys many properties for themselves, but also buys significantly more for their offspring, and they might not even have the intention to either live in or to rent them out in the near future.
With the recent announcements to limit the number of unrelated tenants to 6 per household, I will be expecting a huge drop in vacancy in 2017Q2, probably to the low 7+%.
Don't believe? Wait is the necessary action then.
ThatBurger
23-06-17, 17:53
Prior to the rise of China as the second biggest world economy, global economic trends generally follows US trends.
See the chart of 3-months SIBOR versus the US Federal Interest Rate as kindly made available here.
http://www.mortgagewise.sg/3-month-sibor-vs-us-federal-funds-rate/
Singapore is an open economy and a large size of GDP (ie Singapore economy) is dictated by external forces. Of the 4 biggest markets, US is struggling to revive (reason for constant delay by Feds to hike rates), China is reining in forex outflow and trying to keep its to its 6% - 7% growth forecast, EU is still in the doldrums and printing money, ditto for Japan.
Global economy has not completely recover yet and there may be still room for further downturns. Sectors consider once to be stable and good-paying like O&M, Financials and petrol-chemical industries remains weak and have undergone, undergoing some downsizing.
So those who who qualify for loans will have no difficulties keeping up with the interest rates till economy booms.
Thanks for sharing.
Prior to the rise of China as the second biggest world economy, global economic trends generally follows US trends.
See the chart of 3-months SIBOR versus the US Federal Interest Rate as kindly made available here.
http://www.mortgagewise.sg/3-month-sibor-vs-us-federal-funds-rate/
Singapore is an open economy and a large size of GDP (ie Singapore economy) is dictated by external forces. Of the 4 biggest markets, US is struggling to revive (reason for constant delay by Feds to hike rates), China is reining in forex outflow and trying to keep its to its 6% - 7% growth forecast, EU is still in the doldrums and printing money, ditto for Japan.
Global economy has not completely recover yet and there may be still room for further downturns. Sectors consider once to be stable and good-paying like O&M, Financials and petrol-chemical industries remains weak and have undergone, undergoing some downsizing.
I have to agree with you that unemployment is the real killer in the property game!
https://www.propertysoul.com/2017/06/23/why-unemployment-real-killer/
Why unemployment is the real killer in the property game
June 23, 2017
https://i1.wp.com/www.propertysoul.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/unemployment.jpg?
Last Wednesday Federal Reserve announced a quarter-point rate hike as the industry has expected. This is the second approved raise by the central bank this year. There will still be a third round most likely in September.
Why rate hike is not a big concern
But who cares about the raise of a quarter point?
Banks don’t need any excuse to raise interest rate. Mortgage payers may already be used to the banks sending them occasional mail on revised interest rates and increased installments, which are made effective next month, immediately, or backdated a month ago.
How we wish saving rates can also be raised as frequently as lending rates!
Unlike the seasonal reductions of ERP rates by LTA during school holidays, unfortunately mortgage installments will never be revised downwards (not even temporarily) when Fed lowers interest rates.
But does that bother homebuyers and mortgagors?
Well, even with a 0.25 percent rate hike, borrowers are paying an increment of under 200 bucks. This is negligible for most owners and landlords. Interest rates are still low in Singapore’s 50 years of history.
Why you should ignore GDP and unemployment rate
Last week the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) released the latest Q1 employment figures that show the lowest number of layoffs in more than a year. An economist immediately commented that this “provides a less negative signal and also coincides with tentative improvements in domestic demand”.
There are at least two official numbers announced by governments that you can conveniently ignore.
1. GDP
Jim Rogers once told Newsmax TV in an exclusive interview that he does not pay attention to “that sort of thing” (GDP figures announced by governments in different countries) for a few reasons:
– The numbers are backward looking;
– They are always revised;
– Every government has different methodologies; and
– Most governments have no clue so they just make up the numbers.
I can’t agree with him more, especially when we see governments adjust that percentage up and down all the time – the same way hawkers can’t stop flip-flopping to make roti prata.
2. Unemployment rate
It is not difficult for governments to make their labor market look good. The magic of unemployment rate is that it only counts those who are actively looking for a job, but excludes those who are “underemployed” or “economically inactive”.
The unemployed is defined as people currently not working and actively looking for work. Underemployed are people who are now working part-time while looking for a full time job. Economically inactive are “discouraged workers” who have already stopped or have given up looking for a job.
Unemployment rate low in Singapore?
Although the MOM numbers show fewer layoffs in Q1, long-term unemployment rate for residents has increased 0.8 percent. Long-term unemployed is defined as unemployed Singapore residents who are not working and actively looking for work for 25 weeks or longer.
Also, residents’ rate of re- entry into jobs after unemployed for 6 months in the first quarter is lower than in the previous quarter. This is worst for PMETs (professionals, managers, executives and technicians). The mismatch of skills and jobs for PMETs continues to be a problem.
The unemployment rate also excludes non-residents in the country.
In other countries, people who lost their jobs are still staying in the countries and are counted as unemployed.
In Singapore, foreigners on employment pass or work permit who lost their jobs or whose contracts were not renewed will have to leave the country. There is no way that they can impact our unemployment rate.
How layoffs kill the rental market
The fact is: Those unemployed foreigners who are asked to go home are the most in-demand tenants in Singapore’s soft rental market.
Vacancy rate has been hovering above 8 percent for the past year. It doesn’t help that the government continues to restrict the import of foreigners and limit the approval of PRs.
In a country with home ownership as high as 90.9 percent, where to find so many locals to fill up the empty homes, when developers can’t stop acquiring new sites and launching new projects?
That’s why it doesn’t matter how the media boosts about the recovery of the property market with encouraging sales volume and record land-bidding by developers. Rental rates of private residential units will continue to slide. Vacancy rate for completed private residential units will remain high.
CNBC published a recent article on “Singapore’s residential property market is sending mixed signals. This is what they mean”.
A landlord lamented that, in a tenant’s market he is forced to reduce rental in every renewal, and he cannot see the end of the tunnel.
Under a low-interest environment, the net return of 2 to 3 percent from a rental property may look attractive relative to other types of investment. The risk factor here is not rate hike, but the oversupply of rental units and shortage of ready tenants.
How layoffs kill the resale market
The biggest risk of mortgage payers is not rate hike too, nor oversupply or even crash of property prices. As long as they have holding power, owners can choose to ignore the bad news, continue to stay in their property or rent it out, and “invest for the long-term”.
The biggest nightmare of mortgage payers is layoffs or underemployed. And that’s exactly the time when banks go after them to top up the difference of their outstanding loan and the current market value of their property. And that’s exactly the time homebuyers realize that they have overcommitted.
The 2013 Japanese TV drama Hanzawa Naoki said it best.
“Banks will lend you umbrellas on a sunny day, but they will take them back when it is pouring.”
After the last financial crisis, governments try to solve their economic problems by printing more money. It works like magic to increase money supply, increase capital and restore prosperity.
But when the music stops, people suddenly realize that they have been buying assets that they can’t really afford to, and they have been paying debts with cheap money all this while.
Allow me to quote Marc Faber’s words here:
“So if you want to boost equity prices, or asset prices, print that much money. But as I just tried to explain, you don’t create wealth in a nation by boosting asset prices. You create wealth through employment and capital investment in factories, in infrastructure, in education, and in research and development.”
The property game doesn’t kill the cash-rich. The cash-rich don’t bother about layoffs or economic recession. The properties they acquired don’t even come with a mortgage.
The property game only kills the house-rich cash-poor – those who save just enough for the down payment; those who barely pass the TDSR test last time; those who can just nicely pay off their housing loan; and those who bought under deferred payment betting on a market recovery.
In any society at any time, the house-rich cash-poor always outnumber the cash-rich.
How do you find out who they are? Remember what Warren Buffet said?
“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”
But if they lose their jobs they will likely lose their property!
So those who who qualify for loans will have no difficulties keeping up with the interest rates till economy booms.
Thanks for sharing.
ThatBurger
23-06-17, 23:00
So those who who qualify for loans will have no difficulties keeping up with the interest rates till economy booms.
Thanks for sharing.
Sorry to disappoint you. US combat inflation with interest rates. Since Singapore trade is mostly denominate in USD, as US cost of borrowing goes up, the cost get passed on downstream, so Singapore interest rates follows the US Fed rates. An upturn in US does not mean automatically the the rest of the world follows, ie EU and Japan economies may remain in misma. So interest rates goes high but Singapore economy may stay in the doldrums. (See report on NODX on % contribution of trading partners) https://www.iesingapore.gov.sg/-/media/IE-Singapore/Files/Publications/Singapore-Trade-Statistics/Monthly-Trade-Statistics/2017/Monthly_Trade_Report_May2017.ashx?la=en
Although developers do not borrow in USD (except maybe the foreign players), as Singapore interest rates goes up, the developers will be even more press to sell as now they get hit by double whammy, QC/ASBD + higher interest expense for the financing of the development. Currently, developers can resist price pressure because the money they are using is cheap, that may not hold true as Fed rates rises.
Of course, as Fed rates rise high enough, the govt may choose to lift the cooling measures since they are no longer require as suppressant to irrational exuberance in the property market.
How about China funds?
What will be the response from China despite their worsening debt situation?
CMs are a source of Govt tax plus they limit the local debt situation from worsening (downgrade from Moody), so I highly doubt that tweaking of tax measures will be undertaken. Loosening of LTV or playing around with TDSR applications further maybe.
Sorry to disappoint you. US combat inflation with interest rates. Since Singapore trade is mostly denominate in USD, as US cost of borrowing goes up, the cost get passed on downstream, so Singapore interest rates follows the US Fed rates. An upturn in US does not mean automatically the the rest of the world follows, ie EU and Japan economies may remain in misma. So interest rates goes high but Singapore economy may stay in the doldrums. (See report on NODX on % contribution of trading partners) https://www.iesingapore.gov.sg/-/media/IE-Singapore/Files/Publications/Singapore-Trade-Statistics/Monthly-Trade-Statistics/2017/Monthly_Trade_Report_May2017.ashx?la=en
Although developers do not borrow in USD (except maybe the foreign players), as Singapore interest rates goes up, the developers will be even more press to sell as now they get hit by double whammy, QC/ASBD + higher interest expense for the financing of the development. Currently, developers can resist price pressure because the money they are using is cheap, that may not hold true as Fed rates rises.
Of course, as Fed rates rise high enough, the govt may choose to lift the cooling measures since they are no longer require as suppressant to irrational exuberance in the property market.
Sorry to disappoint you. US combat inflation with interest rates. Since Singapore trade is mostly denominate in USD, as US cost of borrowing goes up, the cost get passed on downstream, so Singapore interest rates follows the US Fed rates. An upturn in US does not mean automatically the the rest of the world follows, ie EU and Japan economies may remain in misma. So interest rates goes high but Singapore economy may stay in the doldrums. (See report on NODX on % contribution of trading partners) https://www.iesingapore.gov.sg/-/media/IE-Singapore/Files/Publications/Singapore-Trade-Statistics/Monthly-Trade-Statistics/2017/Monthly_Trade_Report_May2017.ashx?la=en
Although developers do not borrow in USD (except maybe the foreign players), as Singapore interest rates goes up, the developers will be even more press to sell as now they get hit by double whammy, QC/ASBD + higher interest expense for the financing of the development. Currently, developers can resist price pressure because the money they are using is cheap, that may not hold true as Fed rates rises.
Of course, as Fed rates rise high enough, the govt may choose to lift the cooling measures since they are no longer require as suppressant to irrational exuberance in the property market.
If SG follow US in lifting interest rate....then SG dollar will shoot to the sky. This will be detrimental to SG competitiveness.
Ha ha ha! S$ doesn't strengthen just because SG interest rate increases!
Don't believe? You wait and see S$ drop with SG rate increase!
If SG follow US in lifting interest rate....then SG dollar will shoot to the sky. This will be detrimental to SG competitiveness.
By then, if they remove all property cooling measures and even apply property heating measures, most buyers would have gone to hide first!
Boomed! Exploded! Gone! Property price will crash, especially OCR property price now at THOUSAND YEARS historical peak price!
Sorry to disappoint you. US combat inflation with interest rates. Since Singapore trade is mostly denominate in USD, as US cost of borrowing goes up, the cost get passed on downstream, so Singapore interest rates follows the US Fed rates. An upturn in US does not mean automatically the the rest of the world follows, ie EU and Japan economies may remain in misma. So interest rates goes high but Singapore economy may stay in the doldrums. (See report on NODX on % contribution of trading partners) https://www.iesingapore.gov.sg/-/media/IE-Singapore/Files/Publications/Singapore-Trade-Statistics/Monthly-Trade-Statistics/2017/Monthly_Trade_Report_May2017.ashx?la=en
Although developers do not borrow in USD (except maybe the foreign players), as Singapore interest rates goes up, the developers will be even more press to sell as now they get hit by double whammy, QC/ASBD + higher interest expense for the financing of the development. Currently, developers can resist price pressure because the money they are using is cheap, that may not hold true as Fed rates rises.
Of course, as Fed rates rise high enough, the govt may choose to lift the cooling measures since they are no longer require as suppressant to irrational exuberance in the property market.
China Funds?
You don't read the news? Give you a head start then: China is restricting their money from leaving their shore.............
J.B. Forest City is dying because of that.........
How about China funds?
What will be the response from China despite their worsening debt situation?
CMs are a source of Govt tax plus they limit the local debt situation from worsening (downgrade from Moody), so I highly doubt that tweaking of tax measures will be undertaken. Loosening of LTV or playing around with TDSR applications further maybe.
tonymontana
24-06-17, 00:30
By then, if they remove all property cooling measures and even apply property heating measures, most buyers would have gone to hide first!
Boomed! Exploded! Gone! Property price will crash, especially OCR property price now at THOUSAND YEARS historical peak price!
Technically when you say THOUSAND YEAR peak price, the number is rather meaningless. Think about it, in 1970 (40 years ago) OCR properties were also at their NINE HUNDRED AND SIXTY YEARS historical peak.
Just sayin'.
What is the price of a OCR private condo in 1970 (40 years ago)?
What is the price of a OCR private condo in same location in 2017 now?
Answer the question and you will know now is the HIGHEST PEAK in THOUSAND YEARS (not 1970).............. :surprise:
Technically when you say THOUSAND YEAR peak price, the number is rather meaningless. Think about it, in 1970 (40 years ago) OCR properties were also at their NINE HUNDRED AND SIXTY YEARS historical peak.
Just sayin'.
ccreporter
24-06-17, 07:12
Technically when you say THOUSAND YEAR peak price, the number is rather meaningless. Think about it, in 1970 (40 years ago) OCR properties were also at their NINE HUNDRED AND SIXTY YEARS historical peak.
Just sayin'.
Agreed with your point.
Otherwise chicken rice also at its historical peak. I should stop eating it
China Funds?
You don't read the news? Give you a head start then: China is restricting their money from leaving their shore.............
J.B. Forest City is dying because of that.........
The crackdown on outflows of money from China has spooked some buyers. While Chinese citizens are allowed an annual foreign exchange quota of US$50,000, the government said in Dec that all buyers of foreign exchange must sign a pledge that they won’t use their quotas for offshore property investment. Violators would be added to a watch list, denied access to foreign currency for three years and be subject to a money-laundering investigation.
The restriction threatens to take the wind out of residential property sales in cities around the world where prices have been driven in the past few years by buyers from China. Few projects are likely to be affected as much as the Chinese-financed developments in Johor, some of which had relied on mainland customers for as much as 90 per cent of sales.
By then, if they remove all property cooling measures and even apply property heating measures, most buyers would have gone to hide first!
Boomed! Exploded! Gone! Property price will crash, especially OCR property price now at THOUSAND YEARS historical peak price!
LOL.
People who are looking forward to the removal of CM as a market driver, don't really understand or experience how the market functions. I wrote before that CM is not a new tool in Singapore, but the current CM is the most comprehensive and TDSR is structural.
Having said so, the Singapore government is years ahead of other governments (like Australia, HK, Canada etc) in managing property price; the others are just starting to implement the Singapore version of taxing demand, even then none has installed anything like SSD.
But mai spread fear lah.
What is a market crash? A crash is an event, when price dropped significantly from its mean price, at 4SD or more, an event with high volume transacted in a short period of time.
What you described should be called a correction, a process rather than an event.
I think you guys have misunderstood what I meant by China funds coming in and misinterpreted the crackdown on outflows of China money...
Indeed, "crackdown" had begun quite some time back for what we term "offshore property investments".
But the categories of other forms of non-offshore "investments" or "expenditure" was never curtailed.
For example, the large Chinese developers still amass impossible funds to come in for land bids. Why?
Look around the private estates (even CCR) and try to guesstimate the numbers of Chinese PRs buying to stay or as a secondary home. This is definitely not classified as offshore property investment. If they do not buy but still do business or work here, they would have to rent.
The situation at Country Gardens (Malaysia) is different. Most of the "offshore investments" have zero intention or business for the Chinese investors to stay. Work opportunities are absent there, and China is just concerned about these outflows which has not rent or work opportunities backing.
The Chinese are amongst the best businessmen in the world. Where they make their footprints, you can be almost certain there is big money to be earned.
And in terms of proportion, the percentage of Chinese buyers is still small relative to locals. But their funds are beyond our imagination.
So do we have a clearer understanding on what I meant by China funds?
anythingwhatever
24-06-17, 08:54
Agreed with your point.
Otherwise chicken rice also at its historical peak. I should stop eating it
LOL. I like this analogy. :)
tonymontana
24-06-17, 09:47
Agreed with your point.
Otherwise chicken rice also at its historical peak. I should stop eating it
Exactly. Cars also, at their 1000 years historical peak. We all should go back to riding horses. yippee ka yay!
For "People who are looking forward to the removal of CM as a market driver, don't really understand or experience how the market functions", they will soon learn their lesson and gain experience, just like those who learnt their lesson in 1998 and subsequent 7 years of long winter seeing their property price crash first by 30% and then gradually drop every year for next 6 years for another 30%! :scared-1:
LOL.
People who are looking forward to the removal of CM as a market driver, don't really understand or experience how the market functions. I wrote before that CM is not a new tool in Singapore, but the current CM is the most comprehensive and TDSR is structural.
Having said so, the Singapore government is years ahead of other governments (like Australia, HK, Canada etc) in managing property price; the others are just starting to implement the Singapore version of taxing demand, even then none has installed anything like SSD.
But mai spread fear lah.
What is a market crash? A crash is an event, when price dropped significantly from its mean price, at 4SD or more, an event with high volume transacted in a short period of time.
What you described should be called a correction, a process rather than an event.
tonymontana
24-06-17, 11:18
For "People who are looking forward to the removal of CM as a market driver, don't really understand or experience how the market functions", they will soon learn their lesson and gain experience, just like those who learnt their lesson in 1998 and subsequent 7 years of long winter seeing their property price crash first by 30% and then gradually drop every year for next 6 years for another 30%! :scared-1:
OMG again, this is not true. 1998-2005 indeed drop by 30%, but since then has recovered, by 2010 already make profit.
and don't forget that 1998-2005 there were triple whammy of events (AFC, Dotcom burst and SARS).
anythingwhatever
24-06-17, 12:12
OMG again, this is not true. 1998-2005 indeed drop by 30%, but since then has recovered, by 2010 already make profit.
and don't forget that 1998-2005 there were triple whammy of events (AFC, Dotcom burst and SARS).
Plus 911...
Now unlimited Money printing in the Whole World. Time to update your history record.
From my memory, in some locations, the fall is as much as 60% from 1998 to 2005!
Think you are too young to know?
OMG again, this is not true. 1998-2005 indeed drop by 30%, but since then has recovered, by 2010 already make profit.
and don't forget that 1998-2005 there were triple whammy of events (AFC, Dotcom burst and SARS).
If your chicken rice (like OCR private property's rise and fall) and sells at $3.00 in 1997 and then will sell at $1.00 in 2005 and then sell at $6.00 from 2013 , then obviously you should STOP eating chicken from 2013 onwards (just like I am telling people NOT TO BUY OCR private properties since 2013 at THOUSAND YEARS HISTORICAL PEAK PRICE!)
Agreed with your point.
Otherwise chicken rice also at its historical peak. I should stop eating it
tonymontana
24-06-17, 20:22
From my memory, in some locations, the fall is as much as 60% from 1998 to 2005!
Think you are too young to know?
OK, I'll humor you. Which property dropped 60% from 1998 to 2005? To my memory, not so bad. Maybe an outlier data point?
Btw, I'm responding to you in a very matured fashion, ya. Appreciate you reciprocate in kind. I'm Uncle, and I think you're uncle too. But if you wanna call me a young stud, OK la, thanks for the compliments.
From my memory, in some locations, the fall is as much as 60% from 1998 to 2005!
Think you are too young to know?
ur memory?? Give me a break. show some proof lah.. bull shit is very easy to call . and I called it.
OK, I'll humor you. Which property dropped 60% from 1998 to 2005? To my memory, not so bad. Maybe an outlier data point?
Btw, I'm responding to you in a very matured fashion, ya. Appreciate you reciprocate in kind. I'm Uncle, and I think you're uncle too. But if you wanna call me a young stud, OK la, thanks for the compliments.
No need humor him lah.. he been bullshitting for so long. and u expect data pt from him! hah!! he will give some twisted bs crap and call that data pt.
Drop 60% you don't believe? I am sure there are! Just goes to show either you are too young or ignorant to know or you speak without checking your facts! :beats-me-man:
How do you define outlier data point? Is current OCR private property price at THOUSAND YEARS HISTORICAL PEAK PRICE considered outlier data point as well? :applause:
OK, I'll humor you. Which property dropped 60% from 1998 to 2005? To my memory, not so bad. Maybe an outlier data point?
Btw, I'm responding to you in a very matured fashion, ya. Appreciate you reciprocate in kind. I'm Uncle, and I think you're uncle too. But if you wanna call me a young stud, OK la, thanks for the compliments.
Wow minority the BIGGEST LIAR here is still around?
minority,
Since you are still around, why you refuse to answer my question to the allegation you made:
Since Olam DIDN'T PAY ANY TAX on the "Capital Injection $" amount, and you disagree with me (that there is no reason to pay tax on capital injection $ amount like what PUB did), that means Are you telling us that Olam is WRONG and had avoided taxes by rigging (and cooked) its book (so that it can pay less tax)?
I suppose you won't reply?
Ha ha ha!
Why should I reply to the BIGGEST LIAR like you here based on YOUR LIE and BULLSHIT and SMEARING (that everybody knows about here)?!
ur memory?? Give me a break. show some proof lah.. bull shit is very easy to call . and I called it.
minority,
Twist and turn again like 2-headed snake? :moon:
FACT is, Olam DIDN'T PAY ANY TAX on the "Capital Injection $" amount!
So, why should PUB pay ANY TAX on "Government Capital Injection $"?
So, who is WRONG, PUB or Olam?
Either Olam is avoiding taxes or PUB is paying additional unnecessary taxes?
Which is true?
I would say PUB is paying additional unnecessary taxes while Olam is perfectly clean!
If you disagree with me, that means you are telling us that Olam is WRONG and had avoided taxes by rigging its book?
challenger
25-06-17, 22:18
If SG follow US in lifting interest rate....then SG dollar will shoot to the sky. This will be detrimental to SG competitiveness.
Singapore got no control over its interest rate. Singapore controls its exchange rate through a basket of currency and allows free movement of capital. As such, it cannot control interest rate. This is known as impossible trinity.
ThatBurger
26-06-17, 08:58
How about China funds?
What will be the response from China despite their worsening debt situation?
CMs are a source of Govt tax plus they limit the local debt situation from worsening (downgrade from Moody), so I highly doubt that tweaking of tax measures will be undertaken. Loosening of LTV or playing around with TDSR applications further maybe.
Not sure exactly what relevance is China Funds to the topic. Assuming you mean China funds inflow into Singapore, I am not sure whether they are denominated in RMB or USD. Singapore companies do accept trades in RMB, not sure about properties developers, M&E, architects and construction companies though.
The China Debt Problem... ~sigh~... don't know how to answer... there are better analysts than me that still get it wrong. The problem is that China data is semi-opaque. How to have good prediction from bad data? Right now, I am on the betting side that China will manage the debt problem away and the global economy will not have a China Money Flu.
As for CMs, depends on your outlook. There seems to be a social media persistence of distrust in government policies that says that revenue sources are sacred cows and will not be touched. I don't support that stance, when the current easy money regime stops and interest rates return to historical values, the government will lift the CMs to support the property market. Right now, the resales market is reflecting the true demand/supply of housing units, new launches are where all the gambling is being done and thus stays unrealistic. It is easy to gamble with other people money. Once that stops coming, a reality check will happen.
ThatBurger
26-06-17, 09:17
If SG follow US in lifting interest rate....then SG dollar will shoot to the sky. This will be detrimental to SG competitiveness.
Someone has answered that question. However, I want to answer it in a way that is simpler for people to understand how interest rate and exchange rates works in Singapore.
Let's say a Singapore firm wants to buy some expensive machinery from China. How to the firm pay for it? Like when you go to holiday, the firm needs to exchange the Singapore dollars that it earns from the local market to a currency acceptable by the Chinese machinery maker. Let says that the Chinese company wants only USD because it needs USD to pay other things in the global market.
So the firm needs to exchange SGD to USD. How many USD the firm gets is dependent on the exchange rate, ie 1 SGD can only buy 70 cents of USD or 50 cents of USD and so on. That is controlled by MAS as MAS buys and sells currencies from its accounts (the so call currency basket) to keep the the demand of USD and supply of USD balance at the point it wants. Ie if SGD starts dropping below the balance point, MAS starts buying SGD and selling USD to reduce the supply available and prop up SGD exchange rate.
Now, if the machinery is very expensive and the firm cannot pay out of its cash, then it need to borrow. Just like property investors borrow to buy investment properties. Borrowing means that it needs to pay interest. Since the firm needs to buy USD to pay the chinese maker, it borrows directly in USD to avoid incurring the cost of changing borrowed money in SGD to USD (ie money changers margins). However, the loan maker will want the firm to pay the current US FED interest rates , otherwise why lend to the Singapore firm, might as well put in the Fed account and earn the interest.
This is why Singapore interest rates follows the US Fed rates because most of the global trade is in USD and Singapore banks and companies borrow a lot in USD. So SOR follows Fed rates though it is not a 100% coupling.
ThatBurger
26-06-17, 09:24
Sorry again, please do a search on news about China crackdown on companies like WANDA. LECO and so on which are investing in overseas markets in their specific domain. The Chinese government is cracking down on all potential outflow not directly supported or wish by CCCP.
The keyword is "desired by CCCP". Private initiatives are strongly discouraged.
Money like water will flow to the lowest resistance path, you can restrict the flow you can stop the flow.
When you stop the flow, pressure builds up and up to a level, you still need to release the pressure.
Just like how I get 660K then 750K from thin air.
walkthetiger
26-06-17, 11:53
Sorry again, please do a search on news about China crackdown on companies like WANDA. LECO and so on which are investing in overseas markets in their specific domain. The Chinese government is cracking down on all potential outflow not directly supported or wish by CCCP.
The keyword is "desired by CCCP". Private initiatives are strongly discouraged.
Just hope this will wake them up.
We may be free to design our lives, and sense of futility that can come from reading, say, world history, geology, or astronomy and realizing the fleeting nature of the entire human enterprise, but we are not free to change the underlying rules that determine what is real, the property cycle.
In eternity everything is just beginning. It is a long winter ahead. Take Care Everyone.
tonymontana
26-06-17, 12:10
Someone has answered that question. However, I want to answer it in a way that is simpler for people to understand how interest rate and exchange rates works in Singapore.
Let's say a Singapore firm wants to buy some expensive machinery from China. How to the firm pay for it? Like when you go to holiday, the firm needs to exchange the Singapore dollars that it earns from the local market to a currency acceptable by the Chinese machinery maker. Let says that the Chinese company wants only USD because it needs USD to pay other things in the global market.
So the firm needs to exchange SGD to USD. How many USD the firm gets is dependent on the exchange rate, ie 1 SGD can only buy 70 cents of USD or 50 cents of USD and so on. That is controlled by MAS as MAS buys and sells currencies from its accounts (the so call currency basket) to keep the the demand of USD and supply of USD balance at the point it wants. Ie if SGD starts dropping below the balance point, MAS starts buying SGD and selling USD to reduce the supply available and prop up SGD exchange rate.
Now, if the machinery is very expensive and the firm cannot pay out of its cash, then it need to borrow. Just like property investors borrow to buy investment properties. Borrowing means that it needs to pay interest. Since the firm needs to buy USD to pay the chinese maker, it borrows directly in USD to avoid incurring the cost of changing borrowed money in SGD to USD (ie money changers margins). However, the loan maker will want the firm to pay the current US FED interest rates , otherwise why lend to the Singapore firm, might as well put in the Fed account and earn the interest.
This is why Singapore interest rates follows the US Fed rates because most of the global trade is in USD and Singapore banks and companies borrow a lot in USD. So SOR follows Fed rates though it is not a 100% coupling.
Wow, very well written, you could write for a money magazine.
anyway here's a link to share;
http://www.mortgagewise.sg/correlation-between-sibor-us-fed-funds-rate/
tonymontana
26-06-17, 12:12
Just hope this will wake them up.
We may be free to design our lives, and sense of futility that can come from reading, say, world history, geology, or astronomy and realizing the fleeting nature of the entire human enterprise, but we are not free to change the underlying rules that determine what is real, the property cycle.
In eternity everything is just beginning. It is a long winter ahead. Take Care Everyone.
winter is ending, spring is coming. :p
Wow, very well written, you could write for a money magazine.
anyway here's a link to share;
http://www.mortgagewise.sg/correlation-between-sibor-us-fed-funds-rate/
Classical economy theory....I already burn the text book. Nowadays money are chasing yield.
People keeps saying property cycle. Show them the cycle but they refuse to believe.
2009 to 2013 run up, and did not run to its max because of TDSR.
2013-2017 trend down.
What's coming up next?
What is a property cycle?
Boom and Bust right?
Why you only cite 2009 onwards? You too young to know what happened before that? Then Let me educate you:
1984 : Peak
1986 : Trough (Peak to Trough ~ 2 years)
1997 : Peak
2005 : Trough (Peak to Trough ~ 8 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
2007 : Peak
2009 : Trough (Peak to Trough ~ 2 years)
2013 : Peak
Then divergence occurs:
2015 : CCR crash! (Is this the Trough already?)
2017 : OCR still at peak price........
20XX : OCR Trough (Peak to Trough ~ ??? years?) - I won't want to be the stupid goondu buying OCR property at THOUSAND YEARS historical peak price and wait for >10 years to see the price breakeven (like 1997-2007)! (Not when still need to pay 10% ABSD!)
People keeps saying property cycle. Show them the cycle but they refuse to believe.
2009 to 2013 run up, and did not run to its max because of TDSR.
2013-2017 trend down.
What's coming up next?
I only know we have since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn since the Property index was recorded.
OCR opportunity not meant for you. Increase another 20% is still new thousand year record for you.
What is a property cycle?
Boom and Bust right?
Why you only cite 2009 onwards? You too young to know what happened before that? Then Let me educate you:
1984 : Peak
1986 : Trough (Peak to Trough ~ 2 years)
1997 : Peak
2005 : Trough (Peak to Trough ~ 8 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
2007 : Peak
2009 : Trough (Peak to Trough ~ 2 years)
2013 : Peak
Then divergence occurs:
2015 : CCR crash! (Is this the Trough already?)
2017 : OCR still at peak price........
20XX : OCR Trough (Peak to Trough ~ ??? years?) - I won't want to be the stupid goondu buying OCR property at THOUSAND YEARS historical peak price and wait for >10 years to see the price breakeven (like 1997-2007)! (Not when still need to pay 10% ABSD!)
"I only know we have since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn since the Property index was recorded."
Really? So how much has the index dropped for OCR private properties?
How does that compare to the 8 years record of Peak to Trough from 1997-2005?
I only know we have since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn since the Property index was recorded.
OCR opportunity not meant for you. Increase another 20% is still new thousand year record for you.
And how many CMs in 1997? Got TDSR?
"I only know we have since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn since the Property index was recorded."
Really? So how much has the index dropped for OCR private properties?
How does that compare to the 8 years record of Peak to Trough from 1997-2005?
challenger
26-06-17, 17:42
Someone has answered that question. However, I want to answer it in a way that is simpler for people to understand how interest rate and exchange rates works in Singapore.
Let's say a Singapore firm wants to buy some expensive machinery from China. How to the firm pay for it? Like when you go to holiday, the firm needs to exchange the Singapore dollars that it earns from the local market to a currency acceptable by the Chinese machinery maker. Let says that the Chinese company wants only USD because it needs USD to pay other things in the global market.
So the firm needs to exchange SGD to USD. How many USD the firm gets is dependent on the exchange rate, ie 1 SGD can only buy 70 cents of USD or 50 cents of USD and so on. That is controlled by MAS as MAS buys and sells currencies from its accounts (the so call currency basket) to keep the the demand of USD and supply of USD balance at the point it wants. Ie if SGD starts dropping below the balance point, MAS starts buying SGD and selling USD to reduce the supply available and prop up SGD exchange rate.
Now, if the machinery is very expensive and the firm cannot pay out of its cash, then it need to borrow. Just like property investors borrow to buy investment properties. Borrowing means that it needs to pay interest. Since the firm needs to buy USD to pay the chinese maker, it borrows directly in USD to avoid incurring the cost of changing borrowed money in SGD to USD (ie money changers margins). However, the loan maker will want the firm to pay the current US FED interest rates , otherwise why lend to the Singapore firm, might as well put in the Fed account and earn the interest.
This is why Singapore interest rates follows the US Fed rates because most of the global trade is in USD and Singapore banks and companies borrow a lot in USD. So SOR follows Fed rates though it is not a 100% coupling.
Main reason is due to arbitrage opportunities.
Lets say Singapore set both exchange rate and interest rate and allows free flow of capital. If Singapore's interest rate is lower than US, investors will just borrow money from Singapore's bank, convert them to USD and just put them in US banks to earn extra income. Singapore will need to print money to meet the demand. This causes downward pressure on SGD and inflation. Our foreign reserves of US$ may be depleted. Something will break.
One example of this at work was Soros and the Bank of England.
Why are you so evasive of the question I posed to you in response to your statement (which I believe is not true):
"I only know we have since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn since the Property index was recorded."
And how many CMs in 1997? Got TDSR?
"I only know we have since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn since the Property index was recorded."
Really? So how much has the index dropped for OCR private properties?
How does that compare to the 8 years record of Peak to Trough from 1997-2005?
I only know we have since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn since the Property index was recorded.
OCR opportunity not meant for you. Increase another 20% is still new thousand year record for you.
Main reason is due to arbitrage opportunities.
Lets say Singapore set both exchange rate and interest rate and allows free flow of capital. If Singapore's interest rate is lower than US, investors will just borrow money from Singapore's bank, convert them to USD and just put them in US banks to earn extra income. Singapore will need to print money to meet the demand. This causes downward pressure on SGD and inflation. Our foreign reserves of US$ may be depleted. Something will break.
One example of this at work was Soros and the Bank of England.
How could more SGD demand cause downward pressure? Japanese yen has been in this carry trades for decades and its value has been increasing even with negative interest rate.
Not evasive, just different viewpoints.
I trust in CCR>RCR>OCR. But the ratios of differences have been permanently altered due to the changes in TDSR and disruptive technology.
More representative to see them as a whole market currently.
Why are you so evasive of the question I posed to you in response to your statement (which I believe is not true):
"I only know we have since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn since the Property index was recorded."
What different viewpoints you are talking about when I am asking for FACTS? :tsk-tsk:
Based on FACTS, I believe Private Property Price Index of OCR is near THOUSAND YEARS HISTORICAL PEAK, much much higher than 2007!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Meanwhile, Private Property Price Index of CCR is now significantly below 2007 peak!
Not evasive, just different viewpoints.
I trust in CCR>RCR>OCR. But the ratios of differences have been permanently altered due to the changes in TDSR and disruptive technology.
More representative to see them as a whole market currently.
Chinese BOC new kid on the Block. Don't know what will happen when they flood the World with cheap Loan.
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php/26742-500k-amp-above-loan-fixed-rate-3-years-only-need-to-pay-valuation-fee-for-refinancing
You have obviously not thought very carefully about the impact of the only effective CM the TDSR, a permanent measure never before implemented in SG and not anywhere else in the world (in this format).
What different viewpoints you are talking about when I am asking for FACTS? :tsk-tsk:
Based on FACTS, I believe Private Property Price Index of OCR is near THOUSAND YEARS HISTORICAL PEAK, much much higher than 2007!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Meanwhile, Private Property Price Index of CCR is now significantly below 2007 peak!
ThatBurger
26-06-17, 22:25
Main reason is due to arbitrage opportunities.
Lets say Singapore set both exchange rate and interest rate and allows free flow of capital. If Singapore's interest rate is lower than US, investors will just borrow money from Singapore's bank, convert them to USD and just put them in US banks to earn extra income. Singapore will need to print money to meet the demand. This causes downward pressure on SGD and inflation. Our foreign reserves of US$ may be depleted. Something will break.
One example of this at work was Soros and the Bank of England.
Yes, arbitrage is another part of the interest/exchange equations. I don't see why complicate things for the audience struggling with basic understanding of interest rates and exchanges rates in Singapore... it is easier to relate with concrete things that people deal with daily.
Why you keep evading the question I posed to you which is in response to your statement:
"I only know we have since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn since the Property index was recorded."
Since you are the first to mention about "Property price index" and that you claimed that it has "since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn", that is why I am asking you to clarify (since my knowledge is that this is NOT true for all regions! - In fact, OCR property prices are NOW at THOUSAND YEARS HISTORICAL PEAK, even significantly MUCH HIGHER than 2007 peak!)
Thus, I ask you to provide info on OCR Property Price Index and CCR Property Price Index (these are also provided by URA simultaneously).
So, what is so difficult in my question for you to answer and to clarify your claim? Unless your claim is FAKE statement so you don't dare to reply to my inquiry?
(just like minority don't dare to reply to my question to confirm his claim (which is obviously FALSE) that Olam rigging its book so as to pay less tax for their capital injection $) (since he claimed that PUB must pay taxes on gov's capital injection $!)
You have obviously not thought very carefully about the impact of the only effective CM the TDSR, a permanent measure never before implemented in SG and not anywhere else in the world (in this format).
What different viewpoints you are talking about when I am asking for FACTS? :tsk-tsk:
Based on FACTS, I believe Private Property Price Index of OCR is near THOUSAND YEARS HISTORICAL PEAK, much much higher than 2007!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Meanwhile, Private Property Price Index of CCR is now significantly below 2007 peak!
"I only know we have since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn since the Property index was recorded."
Really? So how much has the index dropped for OCR private properties?
How does that compare to the 8 years record of Peak to Trough from 1997-2005?
I only know we have since a few quarters back broken the record for longest stretch of downturn since the Property index was recorded.
OCR opportunity not meant for you. Increase another 20% is still new thousand year record for you.
tonymontana
26-06-17, 23:22
You have obviously not thought very carefully about the impact of the only effective CM the TDSR, a permanent measure never before implemented in SG and not anywhere else in the world (in this format).
TDSR makes our housing market more resilient. Govt is saying: don't play property unless you can really afford it. I prefer if market appreciates gradually rather than it all goes skyrocketing up and then comes crashing down.
Yes, arbitrage is another part of the interest/exchange equations. I don't see why complicate things for the audience struggling with basic understanding of interest rates and exchanges rates in Singapore... it is easier to relate with concrete things that people deal with daily.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/sgd-bonds-rally-key-interest-rates-fall-after-fed-rate-hike
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/sgd-bonds-rally-key-interest-rates-fall-after-fed-rate-hike
Like that how interest rate did not go up but fall.
ThatBurger
27-06-17, 10:23
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/sgd-bonds-rally-key-interest-rates-fall-after-fed-rate-hike
That shows how complicate the factors and causal effects of shifting values in the relative factors, very similar to the cause and effects in the property market. However, one thing that all the analysts in the article agree is that it is a short-run effect. Eventually when US Fed rates returns to historical norms, it will force the re-alignment of SOR to Fed Rates.
The only way I can see that not happening is that RMB becomes a truly global currency which will coupled us tightly to the Chinese economy. Then the Fed rates will play less of an effect as more currency movements are denominated in RMB rather than USD in Singapore.
As long as interest rates remain low for the foreseeable future, those of us with housing loans will pare down the loan amount principal as much as possible in the first few years (a decade or more) while theorists continue to debate about when interest rates will rise during a boom market etc.
challenger
27-06-17, 23:07
Like that how interest rate did not go up but fall.
Historically, US interest rate is above SIBOR. For past few (and many) years, it is the other way round.
There is a relation but interest rate will not be an exact match.
What is a property cycle?
Boom and Bust right?
Why you only cite 2009 onwards? You too young to know what happened before that? Then Let me educate you:
1984 : Peak
1986 : Trough (Peak to Trough ~ 2 years)
1997 : Peak
2005 : Trough (Peak to Trough ~ 8 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
2007 : Peak
2009 : Trough (Peak to Trough ~ 2 years)
2013 : Peak
Then divergence occurs:
2015 : CCR crash! (Is this the Trough already?)
2017 : OCR still at peak price........
20XX : OCR Trough (Peak to Trough ~ ??? years?) - I won't want to be the stupid goondu buying OCR property at THOUSAND YEARS historical peak price and wait for >10 years to see the price breakeven (like 1997-2007)! (Not when still need to pay 10% ABSD!)
While CCR9 unit transaction price has been dropping, it is important to know that land price has been increasing.
Let's look at the land sales over the years:
2011 - Robertson Quay, $938 psf ppr
2012 - Cairnhill, $1150s psf ppr
2013 - Mount Sophia, $1157 psf ppr
2016 - Martin Place, $1239 psf ppr
Martin Place is still the record price paid for a pure residential site. The Cairnhill site is a condotel development (40 : 60, hotel : residential), the residential units are transacted at $2500s psf (below the fair price based on my pricing model).
So, fundamentally the price correction taking place in CCR9 is not due to lower land price but other reasons.
minority,
Are you still around?
If still around, please reply to my question in response to YOUR CLAIM............
You don't dare to reply my question?????????????
Wow! Just goes to show what kind of EPIC LIAR and BIGGEST BULLSHITTER you are here! Ha ha ha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :middle-finger2: :smiley_simmons:
Wow minority the BIGGEST LIAR here is still around?
minority,
Since you are still around, why you refuse to answer my question to the allegation you made:
Since Olam DIDN'T PAY ANY TAX on the "Capital Injection $" amount, and you disagree with me (that there is no reason to pay tax on capital injection $ amount like what PUB did), that means Are you telling us that Olam is WRONG and had avoided taxes by rigging (and cooked) its book (so that it can pay less tax)?
I suppose you won't reply?
Ha ha ha!
Why should I reply to the BIGGEST LIAR like you here based on YOUR LIE and BULLSHIT and SMEARING (that everybody knows about here)?!
ur memory?? Give me a break. show some proof lah.. bull shit is very easy to call . and I called it.
minority,
Twist and turn again like 2-headed snake?
FACT is, Olam DIDN'T PAY ANY TAX on the "Capital Injection $" amount!
So, why should PUB pay ANY TAX on "Government Capital Injection $"?
So, who is WRONG, PUB or Olam?
Either Olam is avoiding taxes or PUB is paying additional unnecessary taxes?
Which is true?
I would say PUB is paying additional unnecessary taxes while Olam is perfectly clean!
If you disagree with me, that means you are telling us that Olam is WRONG and had avoided taxes by rigging its book?
tonymontana
02-07-17, 01:33
What's happening here? Other than vina yip fanciful stories?
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