View Full Version : Any Fundamental to Support the Current Run-Away GLS/Enbloc Pricees
Amber Woods
09-06-17, 20:18
Thank you Leeds for sharing your insights. You are truly erudite in your thoughts. Hope you will continue to contribute to this forum.
This is an interesting thread started by Laguna.
The bullish market from 2009 to 2013 was a cause for concern with plenty of government's interventions during this period. Have the fundamentals change since then?
The US economy is on path for a recovery with the Fed starting to unwind the easing with gradual interest rates hike. China is on path to overtake the US as the economic power as the world come to term with it. The West as usual, will continue to want to 'contain' China with their vested interests. East Asia is more divided with many countries decide to go along with China. Singapore is caught between the shifting of economic powers and is still finding a balance how best to go forward.
The next PM will have to chart our new path because China is not US or Europe. The Chinese's culture is that if you are not my friend, you will eventually become my enemy. This culture dates back during the time of the Three Kingdoms.
At a micro level, our property market remains attractive to foreigners despite the ABSD because of MAS's gradual appreciation of the Sing dollar. However, with a slowing economy, the MAS may well have to flatten the curve going forward. Asean countries riding on the fortunes of China will likely to see their currencies on an appreciating path.
A soft landing promised by KBW saw property prices declining about 13% since 2013; averaging 3.25% p.a.. With the government’s determination to maintain a stable market, we can expect this soft landing to go on over the next few years. This cycle is expected to be long given all the challenges we are facing both internally and externally. A soft landing with prices declining steadily in line with the depreciating values of our aging HDB flats and is fundamental to the government’s efforts to enable us to unlock the store values of these aging flats.
As what Plato said: “A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers.” If the numbers do not tally with our knowledge of the market, trust your wisdom and trust your knowledge.
Noble Group Ltd is a good example of people trusting numbers without good knowledge of the company and got burnt. Muddy Waters with good knowledge of the company opened up the can of wombs and all the good numbers came crashing down.
Hi...at that time is cheaper to buy sg property. High end jkt property required cash. I didn't have cash....hahaha.
But beside the obvious I knew there is a different in the quality of each country economy progress. Sg doesn't need to borrow money for building infrastructures. Its like choosing between buying mercedes paid in cash or buying toyota paid on loan. Most Singaporeans didn't realised by buying sg property they get mercedes paid in cash. Because Sg is not running deficit.
During 2011-2012 I was exploring Jkt, Bkk, Mnl. Jkt needed to go thru a proxy during those days, gave up & bought a carton of indomie instead. :nevreness:
Thanks for sharing. I miss Samsara postings & 1 super old bird PO. Wonder how are they?
During 2011-2012 I was exploring Jkt, Bkk, Mnl. Jkt needed to go thru a proxy during those days, gave up & bought a carton of indomie instead. :nevreness:
Thanks for sharing. I miss Samsara postings & 1 super old bird PO. Wonder how are they?
how many 10 years do they have left.
During 2011-2012 I was exploring Jkt, Bkk, Mnl. Jkt needed to go thru a proxy during those days, gave up & bought a carton of indomie instead. :nevreness:
Thanks for sharing. I miss Samsara postings & 1 super old bird PO. Wonder how are they?
Investing in property is like turtle and hare story. Sometime it's ok to bet on slow but consistent investment. That's why warren buffet outperform all of us. Always go for stable recurring income than flash in a pan investment.
how many 10 years do they have left.
It is not a question of how many 10 years do they have left, it is a question of how to make full use of life to the way that you wish to have.
One can have many 10 years in a prison
True to that. Some people full cash downpayment on a new car, shiok shiok drive for 10 years if just based on the 10 year logic. Outstanding standard of living for 10 years.
They "save" on the exorbitant car loan interest rates.
Why must lock into investments they say?
It is not a question of how many 10 years do they have left, it is a question of how to make full use of life to the way that you wish to have.
One can have many 10 years in a prison
"A soft landing with prices declining steadily in line with the depreciating values of our aging HDB flats and is fundamental to the government’s efforts to enable us to unlock the store values of these aging flats."
it seems that i am the only one who don't understand the mechanism of how steadily declining prices with depreciating values of aging HDB flats enable us to unlock the store values of these aging flats.
in this matter, i admit i am ignorant.
perhaps Leeds can elaborate further or those who has thanked him can elaborate on they what think is meant by Leeds?
or being inculcated with asian values, nobody else (except me) want to lose face by claiming ignorance :)
can the sentence be extended to "prices declining steadily in line with the depreciating values of our aging 99 LH private properties and is fundamental to the government’s efforts to enable us to unlock the store values of these aging 99 LH private properties."
Perhaps it is in reference to those HDB in the core areas which had risen a lot in the past like queenstown. With the garment reminder that sers is no certainty, owners may become more realistic and sell at more "reasonable" prices allowing them to unlock the value.
Amber Woods
10-06-17, 11:13
Given that most of our HDB flats were built during the early 80s', these aging flats are in all major mature estates including AMK, Toa Payoh, Hougang, MacPerson, Geylang East Tampines, Jalan Besar, Sim Drives, Joo Seng etc etc As the leases run down, these flats will depreciate their values over time since the government has confirmed that most of these flats will run down their leases. More of the newer flats will join these mature flats as the years go by.
A slow decline in property prices will allow owners the time to unlock the store values of their flats. A sudden decline in property prices will be bad for the market for obvious reasons.
how about from the buyers point of view ?
when prices are increasing, buyer prefer to buy cheaper now rather than buy later more expensive.
when prices are decreasing, buyer prefer to buy cheaper later rather than buy now more expensive.
perhaps that's why transaction volume is down when property is in a bear market and volume up in a bull market?
and when transaction volume is down, would it not be more difficult to sell and unlock the value?
after all, buyers are the ones who has to come up with the money.
Amber Woods
10-06-17, 11:26
Given that most of our HDB flats were built during the early 80s', these aging flats are in all major mature estates including AMK, Toa Payoh, Hougang, MacPerson, Geylang East Tampines, Jalan Besar, Sim Drives, Joo Seng etc etc As the leases run down, these flats will depreciate their values over time since the government has confirmed that most of these flats will run down their leases. More of the newer flats will join these mature flats as the years go by.
A slow decline in property prices will allow owners the time to unlock the store values of their flats. A sudden decline in property prices will be bad for the market for obvious reasons.
Since the government allows HDB flats to be traded privately in the 80s', prices of private flats are very much supported by HDB upgraders. The two markets are closely related.
Since the government allows HDB flats to be traded privately in the 80s', prices of private flats are very much supported by HDB upgraders. The two markets are closely related.
i am not sure how the above is relevant.
but in the other thread about a guy asking for opinion about parc and trilinq, this is the comment.
"Why is he even considering buying now if his objective is for capital appreciation and sell within the next 10 years? The chances of him loosing money is rather high unless he is a foreigner looking to hedge his currency."
so why would a buyer buy now when he can buy cheaper later?
and if dont care about capital appreciation, would housing then be once again considered as consumption, instead of investment?
Amber Woods
10-06-17, 11:36
i am not sure how the above is relevant.
but in the other thread about a guy asking for opinion about parc and trilinq, this is the comment.
"Why is he even considering buying now if his objective is for capital appreciation and sell within the next 10 years? The chances of him loosing money is rather high unless he is a foreigner looking to hedge his currency."
so why would a buyer buy now when he can buy cheaper later?
would housing then be once again considered as consumption, instead of investment?
My response is in the other thread.
from that response, the resale would be for cash flow?
in a declining price enviroment, buyers would buy resale HDB more expensive now rather than later to start enjoying the cash flow now?
Amber Woods
10-06-17, 11:42
from that response, the resale would be for cash flow?
in a declining price enviroment, buyers would buy resale HDB now rather than later to start enjoying the cash flow?
I do not quite understand your questions?
if price is steadily declining, how does HDB owner unlock value?
why would a buyer buy resale HDB more expensive now rather than cheaper later, given that price is steadliy declining?
from the answer in other thread "The value can be cash flow if the property is for investment."
do you meant it to be "buyer buy resale HDB even though it is more expensive now because they can enjoy the cash flow now" ?
Amber Woods
10-06-17, 11:55
if price is steadily declining, how does HDB owner unlock value?
why would a buyer buy resale HDB more expensive now rather than cheaper later, given that price is steadliy declining?
from the answer in other thread "The value can be cash flow if the property is for investment."
do you meant it to be "buyer buy resale HDB even though it is more expensive now because they can enjoy the cash flow now" ?
HDB flat is a commodity and an essential item and no longer meant for investment as what the government is trying to advocate. Buying BTO or resale is a matter of choice and needs. You need a place to stay, you have to buy or rent, no question about it. Therefore, you buy at the market price at the point of purchase. You can wait to buy cheaper but you will also have to rent for a place to stay. So the choice is between buying and renting and no longer when to buy.
As for investment property, positive cash flow is important consideration.
HDB flat is a commodity and an essential item and no longer meant for investment as what the government is trying to advocate. Buying BTO or resale is a matter of choice and needs. You need a place to stay, you have to buy or rent, no question about it. Therefore, you buy at the market price at the point of purchase. You can wait to buy cheaper but you will also have to rent for a place to stay. So the choice is between buying and renting and no longer when to buy.
As for investment property, positive cash flow is important consideration.
who is in the market for the resale HDB for those leases with less than 40 years left (40 is just an arbitary number)?
if resale market price is steadily declining, the price of new HDB would also be steadily declining (an assumption) since i read somewhere it is kinda of linked to market value.
if i am not wrong, hdb buyers are citizens (eligible for new+resale) and pr (resale only).
for citizens i am not sure i see the urgency for them to either buy or rent immediately, they can stay with parents, wait for BTO to be completed and enjoy a fresh 99-year lease.
as for PRs, yes buy or rent. would they prefer to buy or rent?
would PRs prefer to buy resale with longer leases or with shorter leases?
Amber Woods
10-06-17, 12:21
who is in the market for the resale HDB for those leases with less than 40 years left (40 is just an arbitary number)?
if resale market price is steadily declining, the price of new HDB would also be steadily declining (an assumption) since i read somewhere it is kinda of linked to market value.
if i am not wrong, hdb buyers are citizens (eligible for new+resale) and pr (resale only).
for citizens i am not sure i see the urgency for them to either buy or rent immediately, they can stay with parents, wait for BTO to be completed and enjoy a fresh 99-year lease.
as for PRs, yes buy or rent. would they prefer to buy or rent?
would PRs prefer to buy resale with longer leases or with shorter leases?
We are now in the transition period. Some people have urgent needs, some don't. Some people have better foresight, some do not. Prices will reach its equivalent over an extended period of time and people will make their choices.
We are now in the transition period. Some people have urgent needs, some don't. Some people have better foresight, some do not. Prices will reach its equivalent over an extended period of time and people will make their choices.
when price is declining, volume transaction is down.
how does it make easier to unlock value, seems to me in the exchange so far, unlocking value seems to be by selling ?
and i am not sure what do you mean by transition period, as prices is steadily declining as we all know value is 0 at the end.
would it not be easier when price is rising,and volume transaction is up. (correlation?)
it is easier for hdb owners to sell their hdb flats because buyers want to buy cheaper now rather than buy more expensive later.
and when price is rising, hdb owners get more money rather than when price is falling?
those who have sold probably have found out is it easier to sell in a rising market than a falling market. anybody disagree with this?
who is in the market for the resale HDB for those leases with less than 40 years left (40 is just an arbitary number)?
-------------None with the present rules.
if resale market price is steadily declining,
-------------Not all, some are steadily increasing
the price of new HDB would also be steadily declining (an assumption)
------------------The price of new HDB can only increase, New Town become Mature Estate.
since i read somewhere it is kinda of linked to market value.
----------------BTO in New Town not link, only Mature Estate and the Great Southern Corridor will most likely 50 years lease.
if i am not wrong, hdb buyers are citizens (eligible for new+resale) and pr (resale only).
--------------PR need to wait for 3 years after getting PR then can buy resale HDB. If they buy private or return back to where they come from, they need to sell the HDB.
for citizens i am not sure i see the urgency for them to either buy or rent immediately, they can stay with parents, wait for BTO to be completed and enjoy a fresh 99-year lease.
as for PRs, yes buy or rent. would they prefer to buy or rent?
-----------------Looking at the HDB rental, it is better to buy then rent.
would PRs prefer to buy resale with longer leases or with shorter leases?
---------------Depends on the area, New Town longer lease, Mature estate depends whether got stock.
Amber Woods
10-06-17, 12:39
when price is declining, volume transaction is down.
how does it make easier to unlock value, seems to me in the exchange so far, unlocking value seems to be by selling ?
and i am not sure what do you mean by transition period, as prices is steadily declining as we all know value is 0 at the end.
would it not be easier when price is rising,and volume transaction is up. (correlation?)
it is easier for hdb owners to sell their hdb flats because buyers want to buy cheaper now rather than buy more expensive later.
and when price is rising, hdb owners get more money rather than when price is falling?
You obviously do not belong to the class of HDB dwellers. Unlocking value means selling back the remaining lease to HDB, downgrading from 5 rm to 4 rm to 3 rm HDB flat or other Sliver Support schemes.
Indeed, our aging HDB flats is a time bomb.
You obviously do not belong to the class of HDB dwellers. Unlocking value means selling back the remaining lease to HDB, downgrading from 5 rm to 4 rm to 3 rm HDB flat or other Sliver Support schemes.
Indeed, our aging HDB flats is a time bomb.
i indeed do not belong to the class of HDB dwellers. that's why i am puzzled by Leed's statement :)
if prices are higher, the government is less willing to buy back the lease?
if prices are cheaper, the government is more willing to buy back the lease?
is that what leeds ? easier to unlock the store value of those ageing flats?
we are all guessing by what Leeds meant. hopefully he can appear and explain the mechanism.
To be honest when govt starts to remove cooling measures all paper and internet generals will rush in like crazy. Lol 😄. Never say never remove, it is up to them when to remove. When that happen alot will realise they have aged and bank cannot loan much. Especially if u r in your 50s property game is over...
To be honest when govt starts to remove cooling measures all paper and internet generals will rush in like crazy. Lol 😄. Never say never remove, it is up to them when to remove. When that happen alot will realise they have aged and bank cannot loan much. Especially if u r in your 50s property game is over...
i am sorry to ask this, but are you following your advise? do you keep buying whenever you have the capital ?
To be honest when govt starts to remove cooling measures all paper and internet generals will rush in like crazy. Lol 😄. Never say never remove, it is up to them when to remove. When that happen alot will realise they have aged and bank cannot loan much. Especially if u r in your 50s property game is over...
There are alway way to play the game, it depends on the risk and reward.
i indeed do not belong to the class of HDB dwellers. that's why i am puzzled by Leed's statement :)
if prices are higher, the government is less willing to buy back the lease?
if prices are cheaper, the government is more willing to buy back the lease?
is that what leeds ? easier to unlock the store value of those ageing flats?
we are all guessing by what Leeds meant. hopefully he can appear and explain the mechanism.
The HDB lease, SERs, buy back are for those who got no time to think for themselves while the clock is running against them.
They are preparing the people to accept 50 years or shorter lease for the coming HDB in the Marina Bay area.
So that Singaporeans will learn their lesson that leasehold properties are only meant for CONSUMPTION and not as an investment (nor for capital appreciation and definitely not as an asset to hold value)? :hopelessness:
The HDB lease, SERs, buy back are for those who got no time to think for themselves while the clock is running against them.
They are preparing the people to accept 50 years or shorter lease for the coming HDB in the Marina Bay area.
How can current loan interest rate at 2% flat p.a. be considered exorbitant? :panda:
I would rather pay 2% flat p.a. and use those money on hand to earn >10% return p.a. :smiley_simmons:
True to that. Some people full cash downpayment on a new car, shiok shiok drive for 10 years if just based on the 10 year logic. Outstanding standard of living for 10 years.
They "save" on the exorbitant car loan interest rates.
Why must lock into investments they say?
So that Singaporeans will learn their lesson that leasehold properties are only meant for CONSUMPTION and not as an investment (nor for capital appreciation and definitely not as an asset to hold value)? :hopelessness:
LKY period are over, those who prepare early get the most, those who wait might not get anything or worst pay to stay.
How can current loan interest rate at 2% flat p.a. be considered exorbitant? :panda:
I would rather pay 2% flat p.a. and use those money on hand to earn >10% return p.a. :smiley_simmons:
For those who put money in the Bank.
Why need 10 years for investment and always invest in properties?
If you invest in futures/forex, the buy and sell is counted in hours.............. :smiley_simmons:
that shows you are a novice in investment................ :hopelessness:
how many 10 years do they have left.
IMHO, a slow decline in property price is to allow those who want to sell to have a chance to sell (and the motivation to sell faster before the price drop further while enticing buyers to buy thinking that price will not drop much more)!
When price drop quickly, all buyers will disappear (just like in 2008)!
If these owners have no power to hold over the cold winter that is coming and still refuse to sell at cheaper price, then they basically ask for it! The government already given them chance to do so, they are free to take it or leave it! The government already warned them that their 99-years leasehold properties will not have their land lease extended and basically such properties are for CONSUMPTION (AND will expire WORTHLESS)! :hopelessness:
Given that most of our HDB flats were built during the early 80s', these aging flats are in all major mature estates including AMK, Toa Payoh, Hougang, MacPerson, Geylang East Tampines, Jalan Besar, Sim Drives, Joo Seng etc etc As the leases run down, these flats will depreciate their values over time since the government has confirmed that most of these flats will run down their leases. More of the newer flats will join these mature flats as the years go by.
A slow decline in property prices will allow owners the time to unlock the store values of their flats. A sudden decline in property prices will be bad for the market for obvious reasons.
Why need 10 years for investment and always invest in properties?
If you invest in futures/forex, the buy and sell is counted in hours.............. :smiley_simmons:
that shows you are a novice in investment................ :hopelessness:
You are right, I bought SBS at SGD 4 and the whole market crash.
Use CPF to buy the share, after I sell the whole market Bull run.
The investment was never my cup of tea.
Does not buy property to invest, buy to stay the rest are History.
teddybear, do you know what leeds meant by his statement, the part where i am ignorant.
i am on quest here to find out the mechanism by which "A soft landing with prices declining steadily in line with the depreciating values of our aging HDB flats and is fundamental to the government’s efforts to enable us to unlock the store values of these aging flats."
IMHO, a slow decline in property price is to allow those who want to sell to have a chance to sell (and the motivation to sell faster before the price drop further while enticing buyers to buy thinking that price will not drop much more)!
When price drop quickly, all buyers will disappear (just like in 2008)!
If these owners have no power to hold over the cold winter that is coming and still refuse to sell at cheaper price, then they basically ask for it! The government already given them chance to do so, they are free to take it or leave it! The government already warned them that their 99-years leasehold properties will not have their land lease extended and basically such properties are for CONSUMPTION (AND will expire WORTHLESS)! :hopelessness:
If only got one property agree, if more than one different Ball game.
No. :panda:
People should just wake up their idea and ignore the kelong SLA 99-years leasehold land depreciation chart and start using the straight-line depreciation chart that all companies all over the world (including Singapore) uses........ :hopelessness:
Only in Singapore then you can find such artificial 99-years leasehold land depreciation guide (see here) for valuers (http://www.sla.gov.sg/Portals/0/Services/Land%20Lease%20Conditions/DP%20policy%20wef%2031%20Jul%202000.pdf)! :panda:
teddybear, do you know what leeds meant by his statement, the part where i am ignorant.
i am on quest here to find out the mechanism by which "A soft landing with prices declining steadily in line with the depreciating values of our aging HDB flats and is fundamental to the government’s efforts to enable us to unlock the store values of these aging flats."
If don't buy property to invest but buy to stay (AND you have only 1) how to make big money? :panda:
Since you are buying 99-years leasehold properties, by right your property and land value will depreciate in straight line over 99-years, so in effect your property is a CONSUMPTION and not investment, regardless of whether you DREAM that you are investing or not........ :hopelessness:
For short-term investments, there are many more venues to make money, and property is definitely not 1 of them (and you can't make GOOD money selling your property now (nor buy property) given that buyers need to pay ABSD, SSD, pass TDSR (means no more high leverage to make more money)! Furthermore, OCR private condo prices are now at THOUSAND YEARS historical PEAK! :panda:
Buying at THOUSAND YEARS historical peak price, IMHO, can only be described using 1 word: "STUPID"! :o
You are right, I bought SBS at SGD 4 and the whole market crash.
Use CPF to buy the share, after I sell the whole market Bull run.
The investment was never my cup of tea.
Does not buy property to invest, buy to stay the rest are History.
If don't buy property to invest but buy to stay (AND you have only 1) how to make big money?
The first PC was not bought for investment but self-stay.
Since you are buying 99-years leasehold properties, by right your property and land value will depreciate in the straight line over 99-years, so in effect your property is a CONSUMPTION and not investment, regardless of whether you DREAM that you are investing or not........
You are right when the World was told cannot print Money, but after GFC the World was told it is alright to print.
For short-term investments, there are many more venues to make money, and property is definitely not 1 of them (and you can't make GOOD money selling your property now (nor buy property) given that buyers need to pay ABSD, SSD, pass TDSR (means no more high leverage to make more money)
Still can but take longer time, manage to escape all the CMs.
tonymontana
10-06-17, 14:45
Investing in property is like turtle and hare story. Sometime it's ok to bet on slow but consistent investment. That's why warren buffet outperform all of us. Always go for stable recurring income than flash in a pan investment.
Power. Thumbs up.
Amber Woods
10-06-17, 16:45
IMHO, a slow decline in property price is to allow those who want to sell to have a chance to sell (and the motivation to sell faster before the price drop further while enticing buyers to buy thinking that price will not drop much more)!
When price drop quickly, all buyers will disappear (just like in 2008)!
If these owners have no power to hold over the cold winter that is coming and still refuse to sell at cheaper price, then they basically ask for it! The government already given them chance to do so, they are free to take it or leave it! The government already warned them that their 99-years leasehold properties will not have their land lease extended and basically such properties are for CONSUMPTION (AND will expire WORTHLESS)! :hopelessness:
I think TB had gotten what Leeds' meant. That is also what I am trying to tell Hopeful.
Going forward, isn't HDB itself is the biggest buyer for ageing flats with ageing populous?
Going forward, isn't HDB itself is the biggest buyer for ageing flats with ageing populous?
No, HDB doesn't buy back resale HDB they only repossess HDB.
we are all guessing by what Leeds meant. hopefully he can appear and explain the mechanism.
The HDB lease, SERs, buy back are for those who got no time to think for themselves while the clock is running against them.
They are preparing the people to accept 50 years or shorter lease for the coming HDB in the Marina Bay area.
tonymontana
12-06-17, 21:42
https://www.srx.com.sg/singapore-property-news/37492/singapore-property-prices-expected-to-climb-fuelled-by-collective-sale-market
Basically same conclusion as kelong here that those end bloc beneficiary will return to the market to replace the 900+ units
https://www.srx.com.sg/singapore-property-news/37492/singapore-property-prices-expected-to-climb-fuelled-by-collective-sale-market
Basically same conclusion as kelong here that those end bloc beneficiary will return to the market to replace the 900+ units
If you do the Math, you will know it is not Kelong. Some chose to see Head, others chose to see Tail.
Amber Woods
13-06-17, 08:40
https://www.srx.com.sg/singapore-property-news/37492/singapore-property-prices-expected-to-climb-fuelled-by-collective-sale-market
Basically same conclusion as kelong here that those end bloc beneficiary will return to the market to replace the 900+ units
SRX is owned by all the major real estate agencies and consultants including StreetSine. News and data from SRX should be read and view 'cautiously' especially its data which are often quite different from URA and NUS.
Read what we discussed about some indices last time...
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php/21970-NUS-price-index-for-private-homes-up-0-8-in-May?
An index only gives us an approximation of the reality. It's methodology is the most crucial in understanding its trends.
A ruler is only as accurate as the scales we use to calibrate the ruler.
SRX is owned by all the major real estate agencies and consultants including StreetSine. News and data from SRX should be read and view 'cautiously' especially its data which are often quite different from URA and NUS.
tonymontana
13-06-17, 10:05
If you do the Math, you will know it is not Kelong. Some chose to see Head, others chose to see Tail.
I meant same conclusion as what kelonguni mentioned
tonymontana
13-06-17, 10:06
SRX is owned by all the major real estate agencies and consultants including StreetSine. News and data from SRX should be read and view 'cautiously' especially its data which are often quite different from URA and NUS.
Hmm! Good point there. But their data looks quite kosher lei. In fact, I think their portal captured some sales transactions that are not shown on ura ( somehow agents can see the options exercised, whereas ura website is based on caveats lodged).
Hmm! Good point there. But their data looks quite kosher lei. In fact, I think their portal captured some sales transactions that are not shown on ura ( somehow agents can see the options exercised, whereas ura website is based on caveats lodged).
Just to note that when I last did my check, in 2013, SRX index fell first before URA index fell later. You can verify their data. SRX measures resales (month by month), URA uses 5-quarter fixed weight method (revised index), and NUS resale only includes transactions from a basket of properties that are less than 10 years old.
There was a group of diehards in mid 2013 who also blamed the SRX for not being accurate, trying to encourage fire sales from owners when the property transaction volumes were very low. Can't remember which side I was on then.
Everything is captured online.
Not convinced, just continue to wait.
https://www.srx.com.sg/price-index#
For your reference.
Die hard will say wait for another quarter than another than MTB.
Just Do it if you can still buy with all the CMs.
when price is declining, volume transaction is down.
how does it make easier to unlock value, seems to me in the exchange so far, unlocking value seems to be by selling ?
and i am not sure what do you mean by transition period, as prices is steadily declining as we all know value is 0 at the end.
would it not be easier when price is rising,and volume transaction is up. (correlation?)
it is easier for hdb owners to sell their hdb flats because buyers want to buy cheaper now rather than buy more expensive later.
and when price is rising, hdb owners get more money rather than when price is falling?
those who have sold probably have found out is it easier to sell in a rising market than a falling market. anybody disagree with this?
The best way to unlock an old HDB value is through SERS. However, it is harder (costly) to purchase an old block of 3rm / 4rm at $450-650k than $250-450k. Since the majority of these owners are treating their flat as commodity, it does not matter that the price decline now so that the govt can SERS them and then offer the owners a fresh lease apartment at the same low price. The unlocking will happen when the owners sell these fresh lease HDBs next time.
Thus, even when price is declining, it is still possible to unlock the value coz it is facilitated by the govt.
tonymontana
13-06-17, 23:20
https://www.srx.com.sg/price-index#
For your reference.
The transacted chart looks toppish and the rental chart doesn't look so great either. That's why people like propertysoul are bearish I guess.
tonymontana
13-06-17, 23:24
Is this the start of a gradual change of trend in the market? Your guess is as good as mine
https://www.srx.com.sg/singapore-property-news/37682/srx-singapore-private-resale-prices-increase-04-in-may
Amber Woods
14-06-17, 15:58
Is this the start of a gradual change of trend in the market? Your guess is as good as mine
https://www.srx.com.sg/singapore-property-news/37682/srx-singapore-private-resale-prices-increase-04-in-may
Why peak residential sales are expected to be lower this cycle
There is no real housing demand.
The residential market has already changed following the recent tweaks in Singapore's property measures.
According to the takeaways from Jefferies’ meeting with property developer Roxy-Pacific Holdings, housing demand is not driving sales. Rather it was more of investment, better location and other factors which are boosting the sales in the housing market.
"Property measures need to be seen in historical context. Back in 2010, there was unmet real housing demand. So, private developers moved in fast and made money. HDB also boosted supply but unmet demand was huge and also amplified investment demand," Jefferies said.
In turn, peak sales and prices will be lower than the recent cycle, the report mentioned.
"In subsequent cycles, regulations will be about managing aspirations and investment demand of larger pool of population," it added.
Meanwhile, developers remain hungry for land while demand-supply does not allow developer to price up. More so, effective land cost has gone up as shadow gross floor areas such as bay windows, AC ledge, planter boxes, terraces, and corridors, has been disallowed.
Jefferies said the easing measures are more likely testing the water, as there is no expectation of any major changes for next 6-12 months.
"Prices are firm and buying momentum is coming back. There is unlikely to be any major change in immigration policies in near term," it concluded.
Do you know more about this story? Contact us anonymously through this link.
- See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/news/why-peak-residential-sales-are-expected-be-lower-cycle#sthash.kCWW44Df.dpuf
Unlikely 10%, 30% growth in a year.
But 2-4% annual growth is most likely unless construction costs surge!
Well, currently the 10% balcony space and 10% air-con ledge free to Developers to sell already is killing enough for the newer private properties! :boxing:
Why peak residential sales are expected to be lower this cycle
There is no real housing demand.
The residential market has already changed following the recent tweaks in Singapore's property measures.
According to the takeaways from Jefferies’ meeting with property developer Roxy-Pacific Holdings, housing demand is not driving sales. Rather it was more of investment, better location and other factors which are boosting the sales in the housing market.
"Property measures need to be seen in historical context. Back in 2010, there was unmet real housing demand. So, private developers moved in fast and made money. HDB also boosted supply but unmet demand was huge and also amplified investment demand," Jefferies said.
In turn, peak sales and prices will be lower than the recent cycle, the report mentioned.
"In subsequent cycles, regulations will be about managing aspirations and investment demand of larger pool of population," it added.
Meanwhile, developers remain hungry for land while demand-supply does not allow developer to price up. More so, effective land cost has gone up as shadow gross floor areas such as bay windows, AC ledge, planter boxes, terraces, and corridors, has been disallowed.
Jefferies said the easing measures are more likely testing the water, as there is no expectation of any major changes for next 6-12 months.
"Prices are firm and buying momentum is coming back. There is unlikely to be any major change in immigration policies in near term," it concluded.
Do you know more about this story? Contact us anonymously through this link.
- See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/news/why-peak-residential-sales-are-expected-be-lower-cycle#sthash.kCWW44Df.dpuf
Well, currently the 10% balcony space and 10% air-con ledge free to Developers to sell already is killing enough for the newer private properties! :boxing:
Actually cannot find info for the disallowed "shadow gross floor area". Anyone can advise?
And anyway, land cost continues to rise...
Hey Fed just raised interest rates by .25% signalling one more hike this year.
No sound from the naysayers?
Tell you my predictions:
US Stock prices will continue to increase!
Singapore OCR private property prices will crash -20-30% within next 5 years!
Singapore economy may continue to be bad (vs historically) as growing by 1-3% only (until next economic down turn and OCR property price crash)........
Hey Fed just raised interest rates by .25% signalling one more hike this year.
No sound from the naysayers?
tonymontana
15-06-17, 09:26
Tell you my predictions:
US Stock prices will continue to increase!
Singapore OCR private property prices will crash -20-30% within next 5 years!
Singapore economy may continue to be bad (vs historically) as growing by 1-3% only (until next economic down turn and OCR property price crash)........
Teddybear, Your prediction is 20-30% drop in 5 years? Choy!! That is not crash, that is already drop already since 2013. already happened, no more crash.!
my definition of crash is value is halved in about 6 months.
So basically, one should Buy now .
Tell you more........
CCR private property prices already crash >30% (some even up to 50%)!
OCR private property prices is still near THOUSAND YEARS HISTORICAL HIGH price, and 20-30% is just conservative estimate!
If you buy a property at say $1.5M, and it drop 30% to about $1M, means you lost $500k.
If your property is an aging 99-years leasehold, banks will come after you to top-up!
To get back to $1.5M in value, your property then needs to increase by 50%! How long will that takes when the government is quick to come in with COOLING MEASURES?
Think about it! Be sensible and nobody will care more about your money and whether you make or lose money (not even the concern of the government)!
Teddybear, Your prediction is 20-30% drop in 5 years? Choy!! That is not crash, that is already drop already since 2013. already happened, no more crash.!
my definition of crash is value is halved in about 6 months.
So basically, one should Buy now .
Tell you my predictions:
US Stock prices will continue to increase!
Singapore OCR private property prices will crash -20-30% within next 5 years!
Singapore economy may continue to be bad (vs historically) as growing by 1-3% only (until next economic down turn and OCR property price crash)........
With the recent cooling measured implemented in UK , AUST , NZ , CANADA etc. Dont be surprise that the foreigner investors may buy SG ppty.
If so, then SG property price will show significant increase.........
Then SG Gov will have to "eat their words" unless they implement more property cooling measures!
Net effect: SG OCR property prices will then drop much more!
With the recent cooling measured implemented in UK , AUST , NZ , CANADA etc. Dont be surprise that the foreigner investors may buy SG ppty.
tonymontana
15-06-17, 10:13
Tell you more........
CCR private property prices already crash >30% (some even up to 50%)!
OCR private property prices is still near THOUSAND YEARS HISTORICAL HIGH price, and 20-30% is just conservative estimate!
If you buy a property at say $1.5M, and it drop 30% to about $1M, means you lost $500k.
If your property is an aging 99-years leasehold, banks will come after you to top-up!
To get back to $1.5M in value, your property then needs to increase by 50%! How long will that takes when the government is quick to come in with COOLING MEASURES?
Think about it! Be sensible and nobody will care more about your money and whether you make or lose money (not even the concern of the government)!
bear-bear,
i really don't know which data you are talking about?
Go here:
https://www.squarefoot.com.sg/trends-and-analysis/market-trends
select any OCR district, (say jurong, or hougang D19 ) then move the slider to max (10 year),
i used jurong D22, in mid 2013, prices are about 12xx psf, now prices average < 1000psf, so that's about 20-30% drop since 2013. (btw, i'm ignoring the large spikes in the psf due to launches of small units for eg: J Gateway in jul 2013)
You quoted the squarefoot website and cannot interpret the data?
Never mind, let me attached 2 pictures captured from this squarefoot website of new sales, 1 for CCR D9 and the other for OCR D19.
CCR D9 has dropped from historical peak AVERAGE PRICE of S$3600 psf (in 2007) to S$2100 psf now (2017)(a drop of -42%), and MUCH LOWER than 2012-2013 PEAK of S$3400 psf!
On the other hand, OCR D19 is now at THOUSAND YEARS HISTORICAL PEAK average PRICE of S$1400 psf now (2017), MUCH HIGHER than 2007 PEAK of S$880 psf (an increase of +59%)!
Even the 2012-2013 PEAK price before all the relentless PROPERTY COOLING MEASURES is only S$1340 psf! That is to say, after all the property cooling measures implemented, D19 has increased by another +4.5%!
OCR private property buyers, BEWARE getting BURNT until become charcoal!
bear-bear,
i really don't know which data you are talking about?
Go here:
https://www.squarefoot.com.sg/trends-and-analysis/market-trends
select any OCR district, (say jurong, or hougang D19 ) then move the slider to max (10 year),
i used jurong D22, in mid 2013, prices are about 12xx psf, now prices average < 1000psf, so that's about 20-30% drop since 2013. (btw, i'm ignoring the large spikes in the psf due to launches of small units for eg: J Gateway in jul 2013)
SRX: Suburban condo rents down 4.8% in May
15 June 2017
Private apartment and condo rents in the suburbs have fallen at a faster clip between May 2016 and May 2017 compared to units in the prime areas and city-fringe locations.
Based on SRX Property's flash estimates data for last month released on Wednesday, its rental index for non-landed private homes in the Outside Central Region or OCR eased 4.8 per cent year on year. This was followed by a 3.7 per cent decline in the index for the Core Central Region (CCR) and 3.2 per cent drop in the Rest of Central Region (RCR).
OrangeTee's head of research and consultancy Wong Xian Yang attributed the bigger rental decline in OCR to the fact that the region made up the bulk or about 58 per cent of the record volume of 20,803 private homes (including landed properties but excluding executive condos) that were completed last year, according to data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). The RCR's share of this figure was 31 per cent and the CCR, 11 per cent.
"With the majority of incoming completions also expected to be located in the OCR, the pressure on OCR rents is expected to continue," he added.
Going by URA's figures, 34,911 private residential units are slated for completion from Q2 2017 to Q4 2020. Of this figure, around 51 per cent would be located in the OCR, with CCR and RCR taking 17 per cent and 31 per cent of the pie respectively. (The percentage share figures do not add up to 100 per cent due to rounding.)
SRX's overall rental index for non-landed private homes for May 2017 was down 3.9 per cent year on year and also 19.7 per cent below its peak in January 2013.
On a month-on-month basis, the flash estimate index value for May 2017 reflected a 0.8 per cent drop, after remaining unchanged in April 2017.
Based on data collated by SRX, an estimated 4,650 non-landed private homes were rented last month - up 12.5 per cent from the 4,134 units rented in April 2017 and also 6.1 per cent higher than the 4,381 units in May 2016.
Mr Wong predicts private residential rents will still trend lower this year as "demand struggles to catch up with new supply introduced over the past three years". Based on URA figures, the number of private homes completed in 2014, 2015 and 2016 was 19,941 units, 18,971 units and 20,803 units respectively.
In 2017, another 15,629 units are expected to be completed which is still 17 per cent higher than the annual average over the past 10 years (2007-2016) of 13,319 units.
"However, private residential rents could potentially find their footing in 2018, as the expected number of completions in 2018 would fall steeply to 9,014 units."
Moreover, Mr Wong highlighted, private residential occupancy rates have risen for the past three quarters (Q3 2016 to Q1 2017), despite the high number of completions in 2016. "This suggests that the rental market may be more resilient than expected," he added.
In the HDB rental segment, SRX Property's flash estimates for May 2017 showed that the rental index for mature estates slipped 2.8 per cent year on year from May 2016. This was a smaller rate of decline compared with the 4.5 per cent drop in non-mature estates over the same period. "Mature estates tend to be more centrally located and have more amenities in the vicinity, leading to higher rental demand," said Mr Wong.
SRX Property's overall rental index for HDB flats for May 2017 was 3.6 per cent lower year on year and also 13 per cent below its peak in August 2013. That said, the flash estimate for May 2017 reflected an increase of 0.7 per cent month on month, after remaining almost unchanged in April 2017.
"The rental trend for HDB flats remains negative for 2017 in the face of continued stiff competition from the private property market and constrained growth in the number of foreigners," said Mr Wong.
SRX Property estimated that 1,873 HDB flats were rented in May 2017, close to the 1,872 units in April 2017, but 3.5 per cent lower than the 1,940 units in May 2016.
walkthetiger
15-06-17, 12:32
You quoted the squarefoot website and cannot interpret the data?
Never mind, let me attached 2 pictures captured from this squarefoot website of new sales, 1 for CCR D9 and the other for OCR D19.
CCR D9 has dropped from historical peak AVERAGE PRICE of S$3600 psf (in 2007) to S$2100 psf now (2017)(a drop of -42%), and MUCH LOWER than 2012-2013 PEAK of S$3400 psf!
On the other hand, OCR D19 is now at THOUSAND YEARS HISTORICAL PEAK average PRICE of S$1400 psf now (2017), MUCH HIGHER than 2007 PEAK of S$880 psf (an increase of +59%)!
Even the 2012-2013 PEAK price before all the relentless PROPERTY COOLING MEASURES is only S$1340 psf! That is to say, after all the property cooling measures implemented, D19 has increased by another +4.5%!
OCR private property buyers, BEWARE getting BURNT until become charcoal!
Several D27 were transacted over $1.4k psf last month. Brave soul.
Correct... If confuse Hillview with RCR still can understand, but to transact outskirts of outskirts at these prices scares the hell out of people excluding the impact of eyewatering enbloc and GLS prices.
Land and construction costs are indeed going to go up very much (one other major component driving this round of increase will be water prices).
The interesting scenario is that rents are still going down, which challenges the profitability but not the viability of rent collection.
So we have opposing forces ahead which translates to moderate expenses for expats and non-locals, as well as those intending to stay (forfeiting rent) - interesting strategy.
Several D27 were transacted over $1.4k psf last month. Brave soul.
To rely on rent to pay for mortgage is not viable anymore especially for new condo with higher $psf, higher interest rate and higher maintenance fee if you can find tenants.
Correct... If confuse Hillview with RCR still can understand, but to transact outskirts of outskirts at these prices scares the hell out of people excluding the impact of eyewatering enbloc and GLS prices.
Land and construction costs are indeed going to go up very much (one other major component driving this round of increase will be water prices).
The interesting scenario is that rents are still going down, which challenges the profitability but not the viability of rent collection.
So we have opposing forces ahead which translates to moderate expenses for expats and non-locals, as well as those intending to stay (forfeiting rent) - interesting strategy.
To rely on rent to pay for mortgage is not viable anymore especially for new condo with higher $psf, higher interest rate and higher maintenance fee if you can find tenants.
Still viable but not very profitable I guess. Another way to see it is if a larger downpayment is placed until tenant still pays out the mortgage. But a larger investment sum is required. Referring to 3BRs and above.
May be able to achieve better yields with stocks.
MM units are still very viable depending on location, as calculated years ago...
Still have to less property tax, agent's fee, etc. :grumpy:
Still viable but not very profitable I guess. Another way to see it is if a larger downpayment is placed until tenant still pays out the mortgage. But a larger investment sum is required. Referring to 3BRs and above.
May be able to achieve better yields with stocks.
MM units are still very viable depending on location, as calculated years ago...
Still have to less property tax, agent's fee, etc. :grumpy:
Still viable depending on how calculations are made. As long as rent covers interest and all the costs mentioned, it is viable.
walkthetiger
15-06-17, 16:19
Still viable depending on how calculations are made. As long as rent covers interest and all the costs mentioned, it is viable.
You know any condo brought during peak period, rental can covers all the costs?
REAL Rental Yield likely ZERO
http://frugalinsingapore.com/real-rental-yields-singapore-zero/
More Realistic Example: The Total Cost of Property for a $1,000,000 purchase is:
Purchase Price $1,000,000
Loan Amount $800,000
Stamp Duty $24,600
ABSD $70,000
Legal/transaction fee $3,000
Renovation/furnishing $20,000
Total Cost $1,117,600
In this example, the rental income is $2800/month (or $33,600 per year) and rental expenses are roughly $47,000!!! (This assumes a mortgage interest rate of 1.8%, ½ month agent commission, NO vacancies, NO repairs, $3000 in annual insurance, and $4500 in annual condo fees – see the table below.)
Mortgage payment
$34,536
Maintenance/sinking fund
$4,500
Insurance
$3,000
Commission
$1,400
Property tax
$3,360
Rental Expenses
$46,796
Yes, that informs the way that is calculated differs from that for those who still subscribe.
In any case, if fewer people buy to rent out (meaning more are buying to live in), we also know the future impact it has on vacancy, prices and rental rates.
Not sure, just wait. Hindsight always clarifies.
You know any condo brought during peak period, rental can covers all the costs?
REAL Rental Yield likely ZERO
http://frugalinsingapore.com/real-rental-yields-singapore-zero/
More Realistic Example: The Total Cost of Property for a $1,000,000 purchase is:
Purchase Price $1,000,000
Loan Amount $800,000
Stamp Duty $24,600
ABSD $70,000
Legal/transaction fee $3,000
Renovation/furnishing $20,000
Total Cost $1,117,600
In this example, the rental income is $2800/month (or $33,600 per year) and rental expenses are roughly $47,000!!! (This assumes a mortgage interest rate of 1.8%, ½ month agent commission, NO vacancies, NO repairs, $3000 in annual insurance, and $4500 in annual condo fees – see the table below.)
Mortgage payment
$34,536
Maintenance/sinking fund
$4,500
Insurance
$3,000
Commission
$1,400
Property tax
$3,360
Rental Expenses
$46,796
walkthetiger
15-06-17, 16:58
Yes, that informs the way that is calculated differs from that for those who still subscribe.
In any case, if fewer people buy to rent out (meaning more are buying to live in), we also know the future impact it has on vacancy, prices and rental rates.
Not sure, just wait. Hindsight always clarifies.
Those high rental period was long gone. Get all your houses fully paid, and u won't need to be bother about mortgage.
PropVestor
15-06-17, 17:17
Yes indeed. A good reminder for those who buys at a less desirable location without much hope for capital appreciation within 5-10 years. Current entry prices versus rents are way off but that will change when demand catches up with supply. Takes a downturn for prices to adjust. This post is relevant now in current context. It depends on our acuity to NOT pick on the rotten fruits and hold it like cherries. I can only think of a handful worth buying. Bank on the wrong one and its a world of hurt.
walkthetiger
15-06-17, 17:59
Yes indeed. A good reminder for those who buys at a less desirable location without much hope for capital appreciation within 5-10 years. Current entry prices versus rents are way off but that will change when demand catches up with supply. Takes a downturn for prices to adjust. This post is relevant now in current context. It depends on our acuity to NOT pick on the rotten fruits and hold it like cherries. I can only think of a handful worth buying. Bank on the wrong one and its a world of hurt.
Too much MM units were built during peak period, and many were built targeting at rental, these ain't the right houses for local family. These will no vanish from the market, but ended passing from owner to owner. You can only hope more foreigners coming here to fill it up. that's all.
Those high rental period was long gone. Get all your houses fully paid, and u won't need to be bother about mortgage.
Don't understand ????
Why pay up loan when interest is still about 1.5 (under 2%)????
Use the money to buy bonds and get 4% better leh?????
Can explain?????
Don't understand ????
Why pay up loan when interest is still about 1.5 (under 2%)????
Use the money to buy bonds and get 4% better leh?????
Can explain?????
Very smart indeed.....now property game is best combine with other strategy. This is why I said property strategy must evolve. Must combine long term and short term goals.
Total cash outlay : $317,600
Yearly extra money forked out - $46,796 minus $33,600 = $13,196
Over 30 years - $395,880
House fully paid in 30 years. Total capital out lay = $317,600+$395,880 = $713,480
Net Rental collection/year (after 30 years when house fully paid) = $21,340
Is this calculation correct????
btw, how much do you think the property price will be in 30 years time???? Please share... I want to hear your opinion.
You know any condo brought during peak period, rental can covers all the costs?
REAL Rental Yield likely ZERO
http://frugalinsingapore.com/real-rental-yields-singapore-zero/
More Realistic Example: The Total Cost of Property for a $1,000,000 purchase is:
Purchase Price $1,000,000
Loan Amount $800,000
Stamp Duty $24,600
ABSD $70,000
Legal/transaction fee $3,000
Renovation/furnishing $20,000
Total Cost $1,117,600
In this example, the rental income is $2800/month (or $33,600 per year) and rental expenses are roughly $47,000!!! (This assumes a mortgage interest rate of 1.8%, ½ month agent commission, NO vacancies, NO repairs, $3000 in annual insurance, and $4500 in annual condo fees – see the table below.)
Mortgage payment
$34,536
Maintenance/sinking fund
$4,500
Insurance
$3,000
Commission
$1,400
Property tax
$3,360
Rental Expenses
$46,796
http://www.straitstimes.com/business/property/resale-condo-prices-up-in-may-with-more-sold
walkthetiger
15-06-17, 18:27
Don't understand ????
Why pay up loan when interest is still about 1.5 (under 2%)????
Use the money to buy bonds and get 4% better leh?????
Can explain?????
Historical high interest rates those days, when houses were real dirt cheap comparing to now, it was totally different ball game.
Historical high interest rates those days, when houses were real dirt cheap comparing to now, it was totally different ball game.
?????
I blur???? In those days, houses were expensive..... it looks cheap now because of inflation.....
look at historical earnings of those days compared with today. You need to compare Apple to Apple..... when I bought my Anchorage in 1995 for under 900k, people all say I crazy, why buy so high????? Today, I also look at it and say it is cheap.... but inflation caught up.
Btw, the property u mention at 1mil, how much do you think it will be in 30 years time???? I would love to hear your view. Is my calculation correct as well???? Or there needs to be changes????
walkthetiger
15-06-17, 19:06
?????
I blur???? In those days, houses were expensive..... it looks cheap now because of inflation.....
look at historical earnings of those days compared with today. You need to compare Apple to Apple..... when I bought my Anchorage in 1995 for under 900k, people all say I crazy, why buy so high????? Today, I also look at it and say it is cheap.... but inflation caught up.
Btw, the property u mention at 1mil, how much do you think it will be in 30 years time???? I would love to hear your view. Is my calculation correct as well???? Or there needs to be changes????
Generally, most people will believe it will likely go above 1 mil, 30 years later. But exactly how much? I think there's no absolute answer to your question.
Generally, most people will believe it will likely go above 1 mil, 30 years later. But exactly how much? I think there's no absolute answer to your question.
Ok. At least it shouldn't be below 1 mil.
For short term gains, property is not the way to go as of a few years ago
Too much MM units were built during peak period, and many were built targeting at rental, these ain't the right houses for local family. These will no vanish from the market, but ended passing from owner to owner. You can only hope more foreigners coming here to fill it up. that's all.
Not necessarily. My aunt bought prestige heights 344sqft, under her daughters' name , and the seller continue to rent from her. As seller got another 1238sqft condo in yishun, prefer to stay near city fringe. Well again perhaps it's location location location
10 years ago 600 psf.
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=358211&page=2
Don't know where is DKSG.
Only the not experienced one will cheong showflat as if that is the only condo in Singapore ... when buying a condo for investment, always remember the 4 key factors :
1) Buy - are u buying at higher prices than others, if so ... that it is a bad buy ... imagine everyone buy at $625 psf, you buy at $762 psf ... everyone dont mind sell at $725 psf ... but u will lose money at that rate ... so u must wait for all these people to sell first then u can sell ... doesnt make sense right ?
2) Hold - Must have ability to hold, meaning, rental more than monthly instalment .. taking into consideration sensitivity analysis of interest rates ... easy to get tenants, etc etc
3) Finance - Get good rates ... interest is the highest cost on the P&L ... so make sure u do well in this ...
4) Sell - Sell at the correct timing and use the correct methodolody at arriving at the sell decision ...
Just my 2 cents opinion.
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=358211&page=5
1 YEAR 400 PSF
Anyone can give me your opinion :
I want to buy one unit in Kallang as investment. Riverine price is now $1.5-1.6k psf; Citylights/Southbank are both at $1.0-1.1k psf. Which one has more room to rise? It seems that Citylights has more room - it may rise to $1.5k psf easily after TOP. But it may be difficult for Riverine to rise to $2.0k psf in 2008.
How about Southbank? Is it better than the other two projects?
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=358211&page=9
another prediction of to be doubled by 2030
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/b65993e8-e2c5-3078-a961-8b908b40967c/billionaire-predicts-blue.html
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-property-stocks-may-build-210000589.html
The crackdown on outflows of money from China has spooked some buyers. While Chinese citizens are allowed an annual foreign exchange quota of US$50,000, the government said in Dec that all buyers of foreign exchange must sign a pledge that they won’t use their quotas for offshore property investment. Violators would be added to a watch list, denied access to foreign currency for three years and be subject to a money-laundering investigation.
The restriction threatens to take the wind out of residential property sales in cities around the world where prices have been driven in the past few years by buyers from China. Few projects are likely to be affected as much as the Chinese-financed developments in Johor, some of which had relied on mainland customers for as much as 90 per cent of sales.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/salary-earn-afford-homes-singapore-234540919.html
Buying a home is one of the biggest and most important financial decisions we have to make in our lives. In addition to paying for a home that is within the top five to 10 most expensive real estate markets in the world, we will very likely have to take up a home loan that will stretch for the next 20 to 30 years of our lives.
This is why we need to be very mindful when it comes to working out our sums to ensure affordability in the long term when it comes to choosing a home we should buy. Of course, as people progress in their career and have a higher earning power, many may consider upgrading to homes in posher areas, with bigger floorspace or near better amenities. This usually also comes with a hefty price tag that requires careful planning.
To make it easier for you, we crunched the numbers to provide an approximate salary you and your spouse should be earning before you consider buying a certain type of property in Singapore. This, of course, is primarily focused on your ability to keep up with your mortgage payments.
Read Also: What Happens To Your Money After You Sell Your Flat In Singapore
How Much Do I Need To Earn To Be Able To Pay My Monthly Mortgage?
First of all, we’ll get some of the assumptions out of the way to facilitate our calculations in this segment.
Our Assumptions:
Down payment: 10% of property price (HDB homes) 20% of property price (private homes)
Loan tenure: 25 years
Interest rate: 2.6% (HDB homes); 1.5% (private homes)
We assume that buyers do not get any government grants for Housing & Development Board (HDB) flats.
We assume that private property owners do not have any other loans to service.
For simplicity, we assume both husband and wife earns the same salary.
We also have to take into account MSR (Mortgage Service Ratio) for HDB flats, stipulating that owners are only allowed to pay back a maximum of 30% of their gross total income. For private property owners, they have to comply to the TDSR (Total Debt Servicing Ratio), where they can only pay back up to 60% of their gross total income. For TDSR, this includes all other loans such as personal, car or even student loans.
In the table below, we look at common property types, both HDB and private, to calculate the salary you need to be earning to be able to afford these homes.
Source: HDB; URA; Business Times
*Outside Central Region (OCR); Rest of Central Region (RCR); Core Central Region (CCR)
Just to explain how we arrived at the average housing price, we used public sources on HDB for the median resale prices of HDB flats in the first quarter of 2017, on URA for resale prices of executive condominiums, condominiums, terrace houses, semi-detached houses and bungalows, and used a figure quoted on Business Times for average selling prices of GCBs (good class bungalows) for 2016.
Firstly, for HDB flats, these are resale prices and do not include any government grants couples may be eligible for. To get a better understanding of buying from the government, with grants, you can refer to this article.
From this, we can also see that someone buying a condominium outside central regions may only need to earn $3,667 each while another couple buying an EC (executive condominium) will have to be earning close to $5,562 each. As in all assumption, there may be anomalies, for this to actually be the case, the couple buying the condominium in question cannot have any other loans, to be able to allocate all 60% of their gross total income towards only their home loan. This is unlikely to be the case.
Another thing to note is that these calculations do not include other costs that are usually associated with buying a home including repairs, renovations or furniture. This is also limited by a 25-year mortgage – those who are older may not be able to qualify for such long loans that exceed the retirement age of 65 and those younger can extend this to up to 30 years.
Don’t Put All Your Money Into Your Home
It is a dangerous game to overextend yourself to afford a pricier home. The government has done its part by introducing the MSR and TDSR. On your part, you should not take on the maximum amount of debt you can just because you are allowed to do it.
My Basic is SGD 2756 like that how to buy.
https://scontent-frx5-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/19060210_10210837169458213_3950702810292349681_n.jpg?oh=85baae07b17ccdb96a3f7778af65ff8f&oe=59D7B5E5
Look like I can only buy a 3 room HDB.
https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/F1QFwrKBVueWTlxBcgYR_g--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9ODAw/http://media.zenfs.com/en-SG/homerun/dollarsandsense.sg/d7ccb0798c5148329bbfb05c43110c65
Further, by locking your money in your home, you may be unable to invest your money for your future or enjoy life – going on holidays, splurging on indulgences or buying new gadgets. Instead you will likely be living a stressful lifestyle where going out of work or getting sick may spell financial disaster for your family.
I don't agree with this statement.
Why the writer wants to make people lost hope in the property when he knows there are ways to better one financial through property investment.
I always remember when reading articles, know who is the writer.
After a few articles from the writer, you will know what he wants you to know from what he writes and not what you should know.
anythingwhatever
25-06-17, 11:05
Selamat Hari Raya Everyone.
May the Huat be with you... :)
tonymontana
25-06-17, 11:39
Further, by locking your money in your home, you may be unable to invest your money for your future or enjoy life – going on holidays, splurging on indulgences or buying new gadgets. Instead you will likely be living a stressful lifestyle where going out of work or getting sick may spell financial disaster for your family.
I don't agree with this statement.
Why the writer wants to make people lost hope in the property when he knows there are ways to better one financial through property investment.
I always remember when reading articles, know who is the writer.
After a few articles from the writer, you will know what he wants you to know from what he writes and not what you should know.
Well, they are people who lost everything and bankrupted when housing market dropped. so always got two side of coin. can make money, can lose money.
however if you can hold for long term, generally singapore property is Good.
anythingwhatever
24-07-17, 22:05
Bump after 100 Pumps.
Heard ECs increasing prices island wide.
PC next in line? (or already happening as Land Prices go over the roof)
All property developers, have a budget to build their landbank. There is no such thing that they can afford to buy non-stop.
One thing very interesting to note that the local big boys like CDL, FEO and CapitiaLand are not in the market or in a very small scale.
Most of the big buyers are from China.
Now, if you are a developer, knowing the supply of enbloc is getting much more, you will definitely become much more choosy. Easily, >50 estates are working hard for enbloc now. How many of these can be sealed and at what price is yet to be seen.
So, if this round of market heating up is not sustainable, then what is next to be happened? IMO, the prices of 99 LH without enbloc potential, or fail enbloc exercises, will head south at an accelerated pace especially those >40 yo, difficulties in getting loans and CPF withdrawal.
Recent new sales have been strong, with much much higher psf and smaller built in, a game of quantum. This is a result of pent-up demand and buyers worry of missing the boats. But I doubt, it is really due to true economy growth. Most of these, are small one-two bedders for "investment".
Let see...what is next 6 months later....
bargain hunter
01-08-17, 14:30
maybe capitaland will want to en-bloc normanton park just like it did for the current interlace. it has no more landbank in sg except that 99 year leasehold landed at victoria park.
maybe capitaland will want to en-bloc normanton park just like it did for the current interlace. it has no more landbank in sg except that 99 year leasehold landed at victoria park.
I think after Interlace and Leedon...they learnt hard lessons already
bargain hunter
01-08-17, 16:18
they did bid for woodleigh but thankfully beaten by sph.
You must know who is the CEO then. He sold a resale property at great discount and I am still sitting on good profit even with the price correction in the last 2-3 years.
All property developers, have a budget to build their landbank. There is no such thing that they can afford to buy non-stop.
One thing very interesting to note that the local big boys like CDL, FEO and CapitiaLand are not in the market or in a very small scale.
Most of the big buyers are from China.
Now, if you are a developer, knowing the supply of enbloc is getting much more, you will definitely become much more choosy. Easily, >50 estates are working hard for enbloc now. How many of these can be sealed and at what price is yet to be seen.
So, if this round of market heating up is not sustainable, then what is next to be happened? IMO, the prices of 99 LH without enbloc potential, or fail enbloc exercises, will head south at an accelerated pace especially those >40 yo, difficulties in getting loans and CPF withdrawal.
Recent new sales have been strong, with much much higher psf and smaller built in, a game of quantum. This is a result of pent-up demand and buyers worry of missing the boats. But I doubt, it is really due to true economy growth. Most of these, are small one-two bedders for "investment".
Let see...what is next 6 months later....
new2mondrian
01-08-17, 22:24
maybe capitaland will want to en-bloc normanton park just like it did for the current interlace. it has no more landbank in sg except that 99 year leasehold landed at victoria park.
If I am not wrong, MasterPlan14 will have a tunnel cutting through parts of the hilly region behind Normanton Park, therefore creating a through road for South Buona Vista Road to directly link to PIE/Queensway area.
When announced, this should give upside to the South Buona Vista area properties. That area is gonna get a connectivity boost.
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