View Full Version : It’s not bottoming-out. It’s dead cat bounce.
https://www.propertysoul.com/2017/05/03/dead-cat-bounce/
It’s not bottoming-out. It’s dead cat bounce.
May 3, 2017
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How do I know home buying sentiments have improved?
Answer: When I receive more email asking me which units to buy in a new project than email regretting buying at new launches.
If property purchase sentiments are weak, there is a reverse in the number of messages from both sides. Very accurate. No need to conduct any survey.
Now is the perfect time to launch
There is usually a 3-month time lag between the performance of the stock market and the property market. It’s because it takes around 12 weeks to complete a property transaction.
The Straits Times Index is on the way up since January. When people can make money from stocks, they feel “richer” and are in the mood to buy properties.
What are developers waiting for? If not now, when?
We see developers going all out to launch new projects: Park Place Residences, The Clement Canopy, Grandeur Park Residences, Seaside Residences, … and there are countless re-launch of not-so-new projects with unsold units.
It is a one-size-fits-all formula: The media conveys the optimism of the developer, marketing agent or mortgage bank, not forgetting to mention a “highly anticipated” new project will be launched over the weekend.
After the first launch weekend, the media reports the selling of half of the total units in the project. (Every new launch project moves half of its stock in that critical first weekend. But what happens to the other half of the inventories? When will they be cleared? You go figure out.)
Where is the optimism coming from?
Since March this year, realtors all jump on the bandwagon to show their optimism about the property market:
1. Strong buying interests continue for popular launches in OCR and RCR due to pent-up demand, rare project, good location, future hub … (Are they hotspots or just hot potatoes?)
2. Government’s good intention to save borrowers from refinancing and hefty Seller Stamp Duties in view of interest rate hike is conveniently interpreted as hints to remove more cooling measures. (We see that industry stakeholders are all very uplift. But uplift of Additional Buyer Stamp Duties? Are you sure?)
3. JLL claims residential property prices bottoming by 2018. (So fast? Prices have corrected only 10 percent so far.)
4. Morgan Stanley says Singapore property prices will double by 2030. (How much more prices have to drop before they can double? Salaries of Singaporeans will also double by 2030?)
New sales have direct impact on a developers’ report cards for the next quarter. Property agents have to make money regardless of good or bad times. Banks have to show some results after a recent cut-throat price war on housing loans.
So, if you are not a developer, a property agent, a mortgage broker, or not even an industry stakeholder, you are so upbeat for what?
Did you smell the dead cat?
Do you notice that improved sentiments are mainly on developer sales, but not from the HDB, resale or rental market?
Last Friday URA just released the price index of private residential properties for 1st quarter 2017. Prices of landed properties declined by 1.8 percent while prices of non-landed properties remained unchanged.
New sales made up 59 per cent and 66 per cent of total sales in the RCR and OCR respectively.
Launching more projects in the same quarter doesn’t mean that the market is turning the corner. It only implies that developers are in a hurry to launch new projects. If they miss this golden opportunity, nobody can tell how long they need to wait.
According to URA, as of the end of 1st quarter, there are 46,016 units (including ECs) in the supply pipeline and 18,870 units remain unsold. From now till end of 2017, there are 14,242 units waiting for TOP.
How long does it take for actual demand (HDB upgraders, import of foreigners, natural population growth, etc.) to catch up with ongoing supply?
Anybody can tell how fast Fed will raise interest rate? Can we foresee the economy to pick up or deteriorate in the next 6 to 12 months? How will the macro factors (political tensions, global debts, etc.) impact the Singapore economy?
If the negatives outnumber the positives, any small upward movement in sales volume or price movement is not called bottoming-out. It is a dead cat bounce – except that the bounce is almost non-existent because we don’t really see a recovery in the market.
And after that, expect a ‘real’ correction in the market. A 10 percent drop in prices we are seeing now is nothing.
Don’t believe what I say? Take some hints from what the media had predicted in 1994 and 1995. Did you remember what really happened to the property market after 1996?
https://i0.wp.com/www.propertysoul.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/media-predictions.jpg?resize=721%2C248&ssl=1
To tell or not to tell
I was thinking about keeping mum about it. Why waste time writing a blog post to warn home buyers to think twice? People will buy anyway.
Afterall, didn’t I earn my first pot of gold from buyers who overcommitted in the previous property cycle?
But I have given up the thought of profiting from fire sales of units bought directly from developers in recent years. I am not interested to buy shoebox units or tiny flats with 3 bedrooms magically squeezed into less than 800 sq ft.
Although Senior Minister Josephine Teo reminded us that “you do not need much space to have sex”. She has yet to demonstrate how to do it with minimum space.
In producing our 2 prototypes over the years, we had taken into considerations just-in-time and cost-effectiveness. But we obviously missed the point of space efficiency in our factory.
There is an urgent need to conduct show-and-tell sessions to teach young couples how to maximize the use of limited space, to make good use of oversized balconies, aircon ledges , bay windows, etc.
Buying properties for the long-term?
Your property agent may tell you that property is a long-term investment. You can buy it any time because no one can time the market. If you can hold onto it for a number of years, prices will eventually go up in the long run.
Well, remember those who bought at the peak of the market in the mid-1990s? It took them almost 20 years to break-even.
Do you have holding power for 15 to 20 years?
I don’t. That’s why I am not buying now.
JLL predicts that the residential property prices bottoming by year-end or early next year. Well, we have only 8 months to go. Let’s wait and see.
Actually there are also media reports then and now that also feels that bottom has not reached yet.
1. What was different then in 1997 was the HK handover. After the handover, no issue with HK and China and some of those that came to SG also went back. Today, SG stands proud amongst all developed countries, not necessarily better, but definitely not lesser. Hong Kong population was 6.5 million and SG population was 3.8 million in 1997.
2. In 1997, there weren't a dozen CMs. In fact, in 1997, there were only less than a handful of measures.
"Some of those measures included capping housing at 80 per cent of a property's value, banning foreigners from taking Singdollar home loans, imposing taxes on gains from sales within three years of the initial purchase, and additional stamp duties. The government also lifted the supply floodgates, increasing the pace at which land for private housing was released, from 6,000 units in 1996 to between 7,000 and 8,000 in 1997."
"In October 1997, for instance, the government reversed its policy stance after prices slipped by 16.4%. Policymakers introduced the Deferred Payment Scheme (DPS), which allowed developers to offer to purchasers of uncompleted private residential, commercial and industrial properties the option to defer part of the progress payments due after the initial 20% downpayment, to a later stage." - See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/news/chart-day-heres-comprehensive-history-singapores-property-cooling-measures#sthash.7F7f9ztC.dpuf"
Today, there are still a dozen well-calibrated CMs strangling the bull - and I do not need to emphasize again that TDSR was the ruler of them all. Any re-calibration to TDSR will already create waves. In actuality, we still have the hangover from 2008-2009, lots of unreleased liquidity frustrated with scams and low yields everywhere.
3. No stable income no talk - if one is not holding a stable income, there are very little avenues to buy, even if one has made huge profits from previous upturns. Even a 1-BR at 550K is challenging to obtain loan and tax clearance for someone not holding a stable job. Conversely, if one is having a stable income, the urge will be very strong to buy. The question is, is one holding a stable income? The tag to income is an important strategy by Govt to ensure as many stay gainfully employed and not exit the employment market after immediate gains.
Loss of income? switch to HDB as a last resort. All factored in.
4. I do not need to emphasise again the basis for Morgan Stanley projections. They based it on the projected SG population growth - we will be close to 7million by then. We were 3.67 million in 1996, and about 5.7million today. We need to grow to minimum 6.9 million by 2030 whether we like it or not to cope with the ageing population cum dwindling birth rates - no two ways about it.
90's they don't know the things call QE, now everyone QE sound so nice.
When everyone printing money, you need to print also otherwise you money so strong can only buy yourself.
Money is a depreciating asset, the more you keep the more you lose.
ABSD, TDSR already take care of the one who cannot hold, those that buy since 2013 are the one who can hold.
Those not buying are truly the one who cannot hold and should not buy and anyway they also cannot buy and if they have also cannot sell.
For those who have already sold is sitting a lot of cash depreciating in the bank or sleeping under the Bed.
her objective is simple, only buy when market crash. No need to have much explanations or justifications.
her objective is simple, only buy when market crash. No need to have much explanations or justifications.
It's unfortunate that the conditions were triggered for her to sell, but the conditions for her to buy may never come back again, as there are too many first timers and upgraders and much more willing investors...
bargain hunter
03-05-17, 13:19
her objective is simple, only buy when market crash. No need to have much explanations or justifications.
all the different dynamics which bro kelonguni has explained not just here but in other threads before makes a crash very difficult to come by going forward.
bargain hunter
03-05-17, 13:21
It's unfortunate that the conditions were triggered for her to sell, but the conditions for her to buy may never come back again, as there are too many first timers and upgraders and much more willing investors...
nevermind, she can still make money from her courses and books.
nevermind, she can still make money from her courses and books.
True, but after that income takes a haircut, it will be tough to clear TDSR.
It's unfortunate that the conditions were triggered for her to sell, but the conditions for her to buy may never come back again, as there are too many first timers and upgraders and much more willing investors...
Seems like she is desperate.. have been singing the same tune for quite sometime. Cham
Seems like she is desperate.. have been singing the same tune for quite sometime. Cham
Her success story is dependent on a 30% crash perhaps. Then she uses her previous proceeds to buy one or two fire sales properties. Then kickstart her new seminar series and books on riding the next SG bull run. The more boring it is, the harder it is for anyone to profit from this stalemate.
https://www.propertysoul.com/2017/05/03/dead-cat-bounce/#comments
https://www.propertysoul.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/comments.jpg
Actually her writings are kind of refreshing especially for 1st time property owner. I would really suggest everyone to understand her view by reading her blogs.
For those who treat property as just one of many possible investment vehicles, you will get it.
But being a constant bearish will definitely offense some :)
ccreporter
03-05-17, 20:05
https://www.propertysoul.com/2017/05/03/dead-cat-bounce/#comments
https://www.propertysoul.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/comments.jpg
Good write. Here is another writeup which shares the same view:
http://gotmoneygothoney.blogspot.sg/2017/05/short-housing-conclusions-may-2017.html?m=1
bargain hunter
03-05-17, 20:11
True, but after that income takes a haircut, it will be tough to clear TDSR.
she doesn't necessarily have to buy back the properties. books and especially the courses circuit has also made some others filthy rich.
she doesn't necessarily have to buy back the properties. books and especially the courses circuit has also made some others filthy rich.
I really doubt book writing can make one filthy rich unless it is a million best seller.
It is easier to convince against action than it is for action. Easier to convince against risk than for risk-taking.
It will be helpful if somehow she can appear just before people sign up for scam schemes.
But several obvious pieces of evidence have been deliberately omitted.
It takes more strength to predict a reversal of direction that I did in 2013 despite being doubly vested then.
The time is ripe and all who have stayed employed all these while will be aware.
anythingwhatever
03-05-17, 21:08
all the different dynamics which bro kelonguni has explained not just here but in other threads before makes a crash very difficult to come by going forward.
Another sign to ponder, if the market is still going down, why would the developers still bid aggressively in GLS now?
bargain hunter
03-05-17, 21:19
Another sign to ponder, if the market is still going down, why would the developers still bid aggressively in GLS now?
developer sales are moving and they are short of landbank.
bargain hunter
03-05-17, 21:24
I really doubt book writing can make one filthy rich unless it is a million best seller.
It is easier to convince against action than it is for action. Easier to convince against risk than for risk-taking.
It will be helpful if somehow she can appear just before people sign up for scam schemes.
But several obvious pieces of evidence have been deliberately omitted.
It takes more strength to predict a reversal of direction that I did in 2013 despite being doubly vested then.
The time is ripe and all who have stayed employed all these while will be aware.
saw on her website $299 per member for a 1 day talk leh.
but on the topic of purchasing, we have seen many purchasing. first and second time buyers (many seem willing to pay 7%!) are increasing. the pent up demand is increasing after the hiatus since 2013. supply of slightly > $1m for brand new 3 bedder in the mass market is coming down fast. i wonder why somebody triggered the stirling road site. that area is oversupplied. could a developer be hoping to get a bargain (ie snag stirling at lower psf than toh tuck)?
I have been monitoring Singapore property market for the past 40+ years, and all these "pent-up" demand that you mention will always suddenly all disappear when property crash is already clear, just like in 1997, just like in 2008, just like in CCR now - And the same FATE will soon fall on OCR private properties!........... :samurai-killa:
saw on her website $299 per member for a 1 day talk leh.
but on the topic of purchasing, we have seen many purchasing. first and second time buyers (many seem willing to pay 7%!) are increasing. the pent up demand is increasing after the hiatus since 2013. supply of slightly > $1m for brand new 3 bedder in the mass market is coming down fast. i wonder why somebody triggered the stirling road site. that area is oversupplied. could a developer be hoping to get a bargain (ie snag stirling at lower psf than toh tuck)?
To understand this, first you have to put yourself in the role of the developers!
As long as the property price doesn't crash and the property developers have a healthy profit margin to absorb selling at a lower price even if they need to, and all those goondu "pent-up" demand buyers don't disappear over-night, the developers can always sell to make good money even if property prices are dropping..............
Know this FACT and you will understand why developers can still bid aggressively in GLS....... They are just betting that their 25%+ profit margin at current selling price will be able to absorb price drop that they believe will be <25%, as long as they can sell quickly before the CRASH comes! Wow! Only those goondu "pent-up" demand buyers will be holding the "crying babies" (until the next cycle).......... :pirate: :excitement:
Another sign to ponder, if the market is still going down, why would the developers still bid aggressively in GLS now?
bargain hunter
03-05-17, 22:36
I have been monitoring Singapore property market for the past 40+ years, and all these "pent-up" demand that you mention will always suddenly all disappear when property crash is already clear, just like in 1997, just like in 2008, just like in CCR now - And the same FATE will soon fall on OCR private properties!........... :samurai-killa:
i'm not a statistician but it seems like on average, many are able to support $1.1m condos for own stay? how much income is needed for this?
When people in OCR start to lose their job, how much income they have? :pirate:
Also $1.1M condos, i presume you are talking about OCR, what size can one buy?
Seems like one can't even get a family size 3 bedrooms unit now?
i'm not a statistician but it seems like on average, many are able to support $1.1m condos for own stay? how much income is needed for this?
In the whole MONTH of Trilinq launch in March 2013 (before TDSR), the developer sold only 106 units out of 755 units. Right now is moving faster but still have units left. Commonwealth towers did better iirc but not much better.
Why are the current results of 30% to 60% sold in the first WEEKEND considered still poor results? In fact, one of them sold 100% of the 50% launched and kept the rest for later launch.
If we see 80 to 100% of a development sold in 1 weekend, that means we are clearly in middle bull period. It cannot progress that fast without skipping the early bull period. And what are signs of the late bear / early bull?
https://www.propwise.sg/timing-your-investment-in-the-singapore-property-market/
bargain hunter
03-05-17, 22:48
When people in OCR start to lose their job, how much income they have? :pirate:
Also $1.1M condos, i presume you are talking about OCR, what size can one buy?
Seems like one can't even get a family size 3 bedrooms unit now?
these days, some mass market 3 bedders are 900+ sq ft sell at 1100+psf = $1.1m+.
bargain hunter
03-05-17, 22:49
In the whole MONTH of Trilinq launch in March 2013 (before TDSR), the developer sold only 106 units out of 755 units. Right now is moving faster but still have units left. Commonwealth towers did better iirc but not much better.
Why are the current results of 30% to 60% sold in the first WEEKEND considered still poor results? In fact, one of them sold 100% of the 50% launched and kept the rest for later launch.
If we see 80 to 100% of a development sold in 1 weekend, that means we are clearly in middle bull period. It cannot progress that fast without skipping the early bull period. And what are signs of the late bear / early bull?
https://www.propwise.sg/timing-your-investment-in-the-singapore-property-market/
grandeur park residences already 70% as at end april
In your 40 years of monitoring, when was there ever a period of 14 quarters of downturn?
I have been monitoring Singapore property market for the past 40+ years, and all these "pent-up" demand that you mention will always suddenly all disappear when property crash is already clear, just like in 1997, just like in 2008, just like in CCR now - And the same FATE will soon fall on OCR private properties!........... :samurai-killa:
https://www.propertysoul.com/2017/05/03/dead-cat-bounce/#comments
https://www.propertysoul.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/comments2.jpg
My experience tells me that the 14 quarters of downturn has sucked into many innocent and inexperience property buyers/investors buying into PEAK OCR private property price, thinking that the 14 quarters of downturn means property price has stabilized and will not crash, while those so-called "pent-up" demand buyers are losing patience and coming in to buy, just nice for them to be hit with property price crash in next few years! I fear for them (since these are usually inexperience property buyers with limited cash buffers and staying power)! :crushed:
The OCR private property price crash amount will be unprecedented (just like the prolonged 14 quarters of slow downturn)! You can mark my words! :samurai-killa:
In your 40 years of monitoring, when was there ever a period of 14 quarters of downturn?
3 bedders only 900+ sqft? And if you consider those big balcony and air-con ledge and many with private lift lobby which comes to >25%, so usable live-in area only about 675 sqft?
I wonder those are built for mickey mouse? (considering that older 3 bedders are usually > 1200 sqft and with usable live-in area also >1100 sqft).
When did Singaporeans start to shrink in size to that of mickey mouse?
Pathetic!
and BAD in terms of feng shui as well!
No wonder nowadays so many cases of family inharmony and even killing because these younger generation are too squeezed-up and compressed and too much fiction because of having to live in squeezed-in mickey mouse houses............
these days, some mass market 3 bedders are 900+ sq ft sell at 1100+psf = $1.1m+.
I have been marking your words since 2012 leh. How many dozen more quarters must I mark it?
My experience tells me that the 14 quarters of downturn has sucked into many innocent and inexperience property buyers/investors buying into PEAK OCR private property price, thinking that the 14 quarters of downturn means property price has stabilized and will not crash, while those so-called "pent-up" demand buyers are losing patience and coming in to buy, just nice for them to be hit with property price crash in next few years! I fear for them (since these are usually inexperience property buyers with limited cash buffers and staying power)! :crushed:
The OCR private property price crash amount will be unprecedented (just like the prolonged 14 quarters of slow downturn)! You can mark my words! :samurai-killa:
Just like the unprecedented 14 quarters of downturn, the time has been delayed.......
I have been marking your words since 2012 leh. How many dozen more quarters must I mark it?
bargain hunter
04-05-17, 00:14
3 bedders only 900+ sqft? And if you consider those big balcony and air-con ledge and many with private lift lobby which comes to >25%, so usable live-in area only about 675 sqft?
I wonder those are built for mickey mouse? (considering that older 3 bedders are usually > 1200 sqft and with usable live-in area also >1100 sqft).
When did Singaporeans start to shrink in size to that of mickey mouse?
Pathetic!
and BAD in terms of feng shui as well!
No wonder nowadays so many cases of family inharmony and even killing because these younger generation are too squeezed-up and compressed and too much fiction because of having to live in squeezed-in mickey mouse houses............
still bigger than hk. there are some developers who build 900+ sq ft but with not oversized balcony/air con ledge. there are others whose balcony and a/c ledge are bigger than normal. dead honestly point it out in floor plan (ie chip eng seng at grandeur park floor plan). buyers love the honesty and chiong in to buy.
bargain hunter
04-05-17, 00:18
http://grandeur-park-residences.com.sg/grandeur-park-condo-tanah-merah-mrt-floor-plans/
980 sq ft 3 bedroom Deluxe includes 75 sq ft a/c ledge and 118 sq ft balcony. useable space 787 sq ft (just under 20% in total). not as bad as 675 sq ft.
This kind of nonsense, like un-usable space being 20% or more only happens because of URA/BCA ruling allowing developers to build up to 10% space on balcony which they can sell for free and also free big air-con ledge not included in GFA.......... Is it any wonder we are seeing 20% or more un-usable space in the total floor area one buy now?
As to HK, Hong Kongers are well-known not wanting to go home because their house are too clamp, and they will not entertain friends in their house (only always outside). Singapore is now suffering and catching up with HK!
http://grandeur-park-residences.com.sg/grandeur-park-condo-tanah-merah-mrt-floor-plans/
980 sq ft 3 bedroom Deluxe includes 75 sq ft a/c ledge and 118 sq ft balcony. useable space 787 sq ft (just under 20% in total). not as bad as 675 sq ft.
still bigger than hk. there are some developers who build 900+ sq ft but with not oversized balcony/air con ledge. there are others whose balcony and a/c ledge are bigger than normal. dead honestly point it out in floor plan (ie chip eng seng at grandeur park floor plan). buyers love the honesty and chiong in to buy.
teddybear is indeed very bearish ;)
teddybear is indeed very bearish ;)
Actually he is just the type who cannot lose face / cannot be wrong.
Most of us here are humbled by actual data.
Those that cannot switch angles based on dynamic changes will always get stuck to a certain viewpoint or mindset.
tonymontana
04-05-17, 15:27
propsoul likes to make a point of how unbiased and impartial she is, compared to "stakeholders with vested interests". Well, I would like to point out that someone sitting on the sidelines praying for the market to crash so that one can move in to mop up cheap assets is indeed "someone vested". Similar to those shortist who shout "crash crash" in online forums. So don't be fooled, she is definitely hard-selling something, as aggressively as "the media and stakeholders" who are selling the recovery story. For example: if propsoul is indeed impartial, why wouldn't she publish my comments? I have written a couple but they never make it past moderation.
Which side eventually wins, only time and hindsight will tell.
for the record: i do have some properties and I am vested.
PropVestor
04-05-17, 15:42
Actually there are also media reports then and now that also feels that bottom has not reached yet.
1. What was different then in 1997 was the HK handover. After the handover, no issue with HK and China and some of those that came to SG also went back. Today, SG stands proud amongst all developed countries, not necessarily better, but definitely not lesser. Hong Kong population was 6.5 million and SG population was 3.8 million in 1997.
2. In 1997, there weren't a dozen CMs. In fact, in 1997, there were only less than a handful of measures.
"Some of those measures included capping housing at 80 per cent of a property's value, banning foreigners from taking Singdollar home loans, imposing taxes on gains from sales within three years of the initial purchase, and additional stamp duties. The government also lifted the supply floodgates, increasing the pace at which land for private housing was released, from 6,000 units in 1996 to between 7,000 and 8,000 in 1997."
"In October 1997, for instance, the government reversed its policy stance after prices slipped by 16.4%. Policymakers introduced the Deferred Payment Scheme (DPS), which allowed developers to offer to purchasers of uncompleted private residential, commercial and industrial properties the option to defer part of the progress payments due after the initial 20% downpayment, to a later stage." - See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/news/chart-day-heres-comprehensive-history-singapores-property-cooling-measures#sthash.7F7f9ztC.dpuf"
Today, there are still a dozen well-calibrated CMs strangling the bull - and I do not need to emphasize again that TDSR was the ruler of them all. Any re-calibration to TDSR will already create waves. In actuality, we still have the hangover from 2008-2009, lots of unreleased liquidity frustrated with scams and low yields everywhere.
3. No stable income no talk - if one is not holding a stable income, there are very little avenues to buy, even if one has made huge profits from previous upturns. Even a 1-BR at 550K is challenging to obtain loan and tax clearance for someone not holding a stable job. Conversely, if one is having a stable income, the urge will be very strong to buy. The question is, is one holding a stable income? The tag to income is an important strategy by Govt to ensure as many stay gainfully employed and not exit the employment market after immediate gains.
Loss of income? switch to HDB as a last resort. All factored in.
4. I do not need to emphasise again the basis for Morgan Stanley projections. They based it on the projected SG population growth - we will be close to 7million by then. We were 3.67 million in 1996, and about 5.7million today. We need to grow to minimum 6.9 million by 2030 whether we like it or not to cope with the ageing population cum dwindling birth rates - no two ways about it.
A great tie back to some historical measures taken by government and even HK.
What we are experiencing now is unprecedented. Even the likes of long time property investors like Vina have not seen before. With an engineered depressed long state to curb speculative buying, the fundamentals of property is still weak.
A very well mentioned point is the state of overall market ups and downs for certain areas. Fundamentally, rental is weak due to low migration and overall resale transactions can join this foray too. However, I caution the over generalisation of depressed state that we are experiencing now. Bright spots are still in the current depressed market and if that is missed, headroom growth is lost as first mover advantage.
As a first world economy, we are not experiencing high unemployment and in the midst of recession. Yes, we may be slow growing but not at that bottom rung. Jobs are still paying salaries to service loans which are largely affordable. Fundamentally Singapore is in a state of transition economy from low-mid productivity to higher first world productivity. Less product based and more service which are high skill centric. Not so easy to train, find people of the right skill to come in. We could have open doors and suck up all the over supply but we are holding back. Why? Infrastructure is not ready yet and so are houses to fulfil the screw up we made in 2010s for the miscalculation. Couples today still have to contend with some over-subscription until they run out of patience.
Low migration or slow population growth is the 'TDSR' or nail in the coffin for demand growth. This is why our rental, resale and oversupply situation has not ease. Even if we relax SSD or shorten time period, who do they sell it to? We cannot afford to open doors like what we used to in but be very selective of what and who to come to Singapore and plant their roots here.
Kelonguni talked about the population projects of MS which we already discussed in the previous thread. It is a matter of when rather than if. Though I still have my reservations of prices doubling. The only thing I believe will address this current market state is increasing population growth albeit slowly and more cautionary.
That is when Property Soul will hopefully talk about market entry and tune her blog to start evaluating properties for purchase. But seriously, can anyone time the market at the lowest except during a crisis? Who does not know if you have cash, wait for the lowest to buy and cash out at the highest. Problem is, what do you do in-between? Other than property purchase, what can you do with the cash sitting around in milo tins? That is another discussion all together.
2 cents,
PropVestor
If that is the case, the facts that I am still owning properties and vested and yet talking about property price CRASH lends A LOT of credential to what I said? :encouragement:
But hei, I agreed with propsoul! The crash is coming, just a matter of time! :p
propsoul likes to make a point of how unbiased and impartial she is, compared to "stakeholders with vested interests". Well, I would like to point out that someone sitting on the sidelines praying for the market to crash so that one can move in to mop up cheap assets is indeed "someone vested". Similar to those shortist who shout "crash crash" in online forums. So don't be fooled, she is definitely hard-selling something, as aggressively as "the media and stakeholders" who are selling the recovery story. For example: if propsoul is indeed impartial, why wouldn't she publish my comments? I have written a couple but they never make it past moderation.
Which side eventually wins, only time and hindsight will tell.
for the record: i do have some properties and I am vested.
stalingrad
04-05-17, 20:40
Actually he is just the type who cannot lose face / cannot be wrong.
Most of us here are humbled by actual data.
Those that cannot switch angles based on dynamic changes will always get stuck to a certain viewpoint or mindset.
That is not true. Teddy is willing to admit that he is wrong.
Many years ago, if you tell him that CCR properties are on the way to oblivion, he would jump 10 feet in the air and hit you with a two by four.
Now he readily admits that CCR properties are toast. He does change, but not easily.
tonymontana
05-05-17, 06:45
If that is the case, the facts that I am still owning properties and vested and yet talking about property price CRASH lends A LOT of credential to what I said? :encouragement:
But hei, I agreed with propsoul! The crash is coming, just a matter of time! :p
you're not prominent, so nobody knows if what you said has a lot of credentials or not. Anyway, doesn't matter and who cares.
You can check propsoul's posts from 2015. Basically the same message, but the tone was very benign. Unlike her latest articles, which almost border on hysteria (that prices haven't crashed yet, but instead look like recovering.)
Amber Woods
05-05-17, 08:31
That is not true. Teddy is willing to admit that he is wrong.
Many years ago, if you tell him that CCR properties are on the way to oblivion, he would jump 10 feet in the air and hit you with a two by four.
Now he readily admits that CCR properties are toast. He does change, but not easily.
Teddy has been consistent in his assessment of the OVERALL property market from being bullish up till 2013 when he turned bearish. I also believe he is vested accept that he would have made changes to his investment portfolio and now able to withstand the impact of a crash. He needs not have to pray and hope for the best.
Exactly. He has been consistently wrong for the last 5 years, and still insists he will get it right some day.
Things not supposed to add he went to add. Things supposed to add or multiply he went to divide. How to get it right ever?
Teddy has been consistent in his assessment of the OVERALL property market from being bullish up till 2013 when he turned bearish. I also believe he is vested accept that he would have made changes to his investment portfolio and now able to withstand the impact of a crash. He needs not have to pray and hope for the best.
Ah, still the same, got money don't buy how many 10 years do you have.
Ah, still the same, got money don't buy how many 10 years do you have.
So no one can time the market at all. Some would say by the time one thinks the time is ripe for entry, he may have already missed the boat. The flip side is true. Those who are waiting will, well, always be waiting. I tend to agree with Arachon. How many 10 years do we have?
So no one can time the market at all. Some would say by the time one thinks the time is ripe for entry, he may have already missed the boat. The flip side is true. Those who are waiting will, well, always be waiting. I tend to agree with Arachon. How many 10 years do we have?
yes. always stay vested.. and have some bullets if there is a crash.. of course must be able to hold during crisis.
like this better than everyday shout crash crash like the author
walkthetiger
05-05-17, 17:30
Teddy has been consistent in his assessment of the OVERALL property market from being bullish up till 2013 when he turned bearish. I also believe he is vested accept that he would have made changes to his investment portfolio and now able to withstand the impact of a crash. He needs not have to pray and hope for the best.
Agree. Teddy has better market sense.
Amber Woods
05-05-17, 17:42
Agree. Teddy has better market sense.
I think Teddy started investing in property more than 20 years ago and not the last 10 years which (the last ten years) does not give you a good sense of the property market.
I think Teddy started investing in property more than 20 years ago and not the last 10 years which (the last ten years) does not give you a good sense of the property market.
I reckon those who started more than 20 years ago should have made a handsome pile. Well done!
I am not as near but at least I am vested, too.
I reckon those who started more than 20 years ago should have made a handsome pile. Well done!
I am not as near but at least I am vested, too.
You are never too late to start investing.
When I share with my superior who start 40 years ago he became very angry.
He did his investment by paying each property in full before getting another. Most of his property minimum loan from Bank.
He shares with me how his father 75 years old was given a 25 years loan to buy Condo before the CMs.
Most will never understand about leverage including myself before 2011, now if Bank can loan me money I will still buy.
I think Teddy started investing in property more than 20 years ago and not the last 10 years which (the last ten years) does not give you a good sense of the property market.
Correct! He has never experienced 6.9 mil population in SG before. Coming by the next dozen years. Stay tuned!
walkthetiger
05-05-17, 18:18
You are never too late to start investing.
When I share with my superior who start 40 years ago he became very angry.
He did his investment by paying each property in full before getting another. Most of his property minimum loan from Bank.
He shares with me how his father 75 years old was given a 25 years loan to buy Condo before the CMs.
Most will never understand about leverage including myself before 2011, now if Bank can loan me money I will still buy.
Again and again we heard, Bank can't loan you money. So if someone offer you a loan today, maybe you can enlighten us how are you going made another big profit from current market.
walkthetiger
05-05-17, 18:26
Correct! He has never experienced 6.9 mil population in SG before. Coming by the next dozen years. Stay tuned!
Supply and Demand. Don't underestimate the hard work and effort by the gov to ensure house is still affordable to all.
Supply and Demand. Don't underestimate the hard work and effort by the gov to ensure house is still affordable to all.
The house will obviously still be affordable to the mass.
The question is, what type of house?
If we are still increasing population by 1.2million, how many "houses" do we require within a decade?
Anyone still on the theme of oversupply?
Amber Woods
05-05-17, 19:27
Again and again we heard, Bank can't loan you money. So if someone offer you a loan today, maybe you can enlighten us how are you going made another big profit from current market.
I believe Mr Arcachon made some killings when he invested in 2006. From there he continued to invest and his last purchase was in 2011 which was on the high but not at the peak. Mr A should be hoping that his 2011 investment will not be in the red and not sure he plans to sell if price is good or buy more like what he said.
As for Mr K, he invested at the peak in 2013.
Both Mr A and Mr K have been very active in this forum and always remain positive. That is very courageous and admirable.
http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2017/02/10/the-happy-city/
He saw a problem and offer a solution.
Just found I live in a very interesting city.
Very funny.
I live through the era where Singapore population was about 1.6M to now 5.5M. Those +3.9M or +244% increase in population didn't make OCR private property investors really rich (if you factor in inflation),
what more do you expect for just +1.4M or +25% population increase? :beats-me-man:
Some people must have been living in their own well............. :grief:
Correct! He has never experienced 6.9 mil population in SG before. Coming by the next dozen years. Stay tuned!
Luckily government stop banks from loaning him money, otherwise when the next CRASH comes, he will have to return everything to the banks, including the ones he currently owned and those earned.
"Don't count the chicken until they are hatched!", that is what they need to learn.............
Again and again we heard, Bank can't loan you money. So if someone offer you a loan today, maybe you can enlighten us how are you going made another big profit from current market.
Luckily government stop banks from loaning him money, otherwise when the next CRASH comes, he will have to return everything to the banks, including the ones he currently owned and those earned.
"Don't count the chicken until they are hatched!", that is what they need to learn.............
Someone did ask me what happen when I cannot pay the loan, 1.8 million and what will be my lost.
Anyone want to guess.
Only Time can say whether I am right or Wrong.
anythingwhatever
05-05-17, 20:17
You are never too late to start investing.
When I share with my superior who start 40 years ago he became very angry.
He did his investment by paying each property in full before getting another. Most of his property minimum loan from Bank.
He shares with me how his father 75 years old was given a 25 years loan to buy Condo before the CMs.
Most will never understand about leverage including myself before 2011, now if Bank can loan me money I will still buy.
Actually, he might have just made the right choice at that time, when interest rates were much higher (at one point like 9+%), hence didnt make sense to leverage too much.
Nope, I felt 2013 was challenging. My actual investment was in early 2012 (second property). Still positive by more than 10% (excluding rent) despite all the nay-sayers.
My third was committed in 2015. Data uncertain. I can only update later how it fares.
My first already fully recouped and is still gaining. How not to be positive???
I believe Mr Arcachon made some killings when he invested in 2006. From there he continued to invest and his last purchase was in 2011 which was on the high but not at the peak. Mr A should be hoping that his 2011 investment will not be in the red and not sure he plans to sell if price is good or buy more like what he said.
As for Mr K, he invested at the peak in 2013.
Both Mr A and Mr K have been very active in this forum and always remain positive. That is very courageous and admirable.
Actually, he might have just made the right choice at that time, when interest rates were much higher (at one point like 9+%), hence didnt make sense to leverage too much.
But he forgot to update his software when I told him private property owner can buy HDB at that Time he tells me no way.
It's not just numbers.
It's also a period of unprecedented breakup of marriages.
And the composition of the new population is also critical. Where would they be housed? What would they live in?
Very funny.
I live through the era where Singapore population was about 1.6M to now 5.5M. Those +3.9M or +244% increase in population didn't make OCR private property investors really rich (if you factor in inflation),
what more do you expect for just +1.4M or +25% population increase? :beats-me-man:
Some people must have been living in their own well............. :grief:
walkthetiger
06-05-17, 08:00
My third was committed in 2015. Data uncertain. I can only update later how it fares.
Local or oversea? If local, then don't need to tell us much about it already....after paying ABSD 10%, LTV Limit 60%...
Good luck to your 3rd property, keep enough cash for bad weather.
walkthetiger
06-05-17, 08:17
It's not just numbers.
It's also a period of unprecedented breakup of marriages.
And the composition of the new population is also critical. Where would they be housed? What would they live in?
A person's subjective confidence in his judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgements.
Local (one more overseas not in this list), 80% valuation, no ABSD paid. Let's just summarise to say next property I will need to pay ABSD.
But I share too much like Arcachon sure a lot of unhappiness. Have a good weekend.
A person's subjective confidence in his judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgements.
Subjective like OCR will crash soon (from 2012) till today.
One can dilly dally some of the most important decisions in life, hoping everything is dished on a plate to them.
But let's just also say that when the crunch comes, one will have no excuse to give for not taking action. Let's just wait.
A person's subjective confidence in his judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgements.
walkthetiger
06-05-17, 09:36
Subjective like OCR will crash soon (from 2012) till today.
One can dilly dally some of the most important decisions in life, hoping everything is dished on a plate to them.
But let's just also say that when the crunch comes, one will have no excuse to give for not taking action. Let's just wait.
Get more frequent update. See the bank valuation for better picture.
Get more frequent update. See the bank valuation for better picture.
Need to check 2 things :
Bank Valuation
And mortgage loan amount.
Every year I look at my total mortgage loan amount, I am so happy. My tenants are paying for my rented out units.
First two valuation don't need to say, gain till shiok. Third one still building to siam the high vacancy period, what valuation will bank do for me?
Subjective like OCR will crash soon (from 2012) till today.
One can dilly dally some of the most important decisions in life, hoping everything is dished on a plate to them.
But let's just also say that when the crunch comes, one will have no excuse to give for not taking action. Let's just wait.
Property value - 1 mil.
Say 40% down, loan 600 k
Age 35 w 30 year loan at 2% interest
Mortgage servicing per month - $2,218
Wait 10 years
Age 45 w 20 year loan at 2% interest
Mortgage servicing per month - $3035
Wait another 10 years
Age 55 w 10 year loan at 2% interest
Mortgage servicing per month - $4,521
That's what arachon was talking about
tonymontana
06-05-17, 12:09
Exactly. For those achieving a certain status whereby in the MRT a young chap bump into you will say "sorry, Uncle", time is beginning to run out. If I'm still 28 years old, of course I have time to wait.
walkthetiger
06-05-17, 12:14
"Don't count the chicken until they are hatched!", that is what they need to learn.............[/QUOTE]
Again, I have to agree this. Only when they try to sell it now at their wishful prices, they will realistically understand the true worth of their property assets. It's over, just another new group of Asset rich Cash poor in making.
Not really selling. 1 chicken fully paid and generating income that doubles its original price every few years.
2nd chicken can be paid off in 5 years if desired. Doubling rate maybe slower but better than most other instruments with leverage.
Only 3rd chicken haven't hatched but they are supported by the first two, especially the first.
Update you again in a few years when I go for the fourth, likely last local.
"Don't count the chicken until they are hatched!", that is what they need to learn.............
Again, I have to agree on this. Only when they try to sell it now at their wishful prices, they will realistically understand the true worth of their property assets. It's over, just another new group of Asset rich Cash poor in making.[/QUOTE]
Sell also cannot buy why sell.
There is two side of a coin, you chose to see which side same with a cup of half fill water, I see half full other see half empty.
Bank valuation depends on whether you buying or selling and to who.
Only have a limited understanding of investing since I was programmed as a worker to work.
1. How many 10 years do you have.
2. Got money keep in the Bank to depreciate.
3. Money is created by Bank, in Singapore MAS control the rate of creation.
4. Invest in the thing where you know.
5. Read more to reduce the risk of not knowing call "Big Data".
6. Try not to stay in the Well and look at the sky.
When one has time, he lacks money.
When one has money, he lacks time.
Happy Mothers Day tomorrow. Time flies when you become a parent.
Exactly. For those achieving a certain status whereby in the MRT a young chap bump into you will say "sorry, Uncle", time is beginning to run out. If I'm still 28 years old, of course I have time to wait.
When one has time, he lacks money.
When one has money, he lacks time.
Happy Mothers Day tomorrow. Time flies when you become a parent.
Agree.
The worst thing to happen, when one has money and time don't know what to do.
When no time and money then want to do.
Not really selling. 1 chicken fully paid and generating income that doubles its original price every few years.
2nd chicken can be paid off in 5 years if desired. Doubling rate maybe slower but better than most other instruments with leverage.
Only 3rd chicken haven't hatched but they are supported by the first two, especially the first.
Update you again in a few years when I go for the fourth, likely last local.
errrr....this is walkthetiger you are responding to, not teddybear le, so need to taunt :)
how does the maths work out for the 1st and 2nd chicken?
i have trouble computing for the 1st chicken.
if every few years mean 5 years, the current yield would be like 40% based on the original price.
if every few years mean 10 years, the current yield would be like 20%, based on the original price.
When did you buy the property? Is the property HDB?
for the 2nd chicken, it was bought in 2012? and (gross?) yield was ~4%?
how to pay off in 5 years time? even if nett yield was ~4% and rental proceeds be used for accelerated payment, i dont think it can pay off in 5 years.
& how many years does it take for the rental income to double that of the purchase price?
please go through the maths, i am much interested (and pretty sure many others would be too).
Local (one more overseas not in this list), 80% valuation, no ABSD paid. Let's just summarise to say next property I will need to pay ABSD.
But I share too much like Arcachon sure a lot of unhappiness. Have a good weekend.
Don't worry about what others think about you.
When you share there were be people who like it and others who don't.
I like to share with my "Worker" friends and one of them told me I should not.
I explain to him that I want them to be better and when they can think better I get a share.
Most agree and start sharing, learn a lot from them.
If you know a lot and keep it until no more 10 years and Happy, so be it.
For me, I have only a limited number of 10 years and like to share.
I always believe everyone has a unique way to benefit from their personal situation and property.
I do not count my eggs easily. Only after more than a decade of understanding how the system works and benefitting do I start to share. Too much details also spoil the route for others on their self discovery.
When I share, people always think I am lucky. They have no idea how many scenario role play, big environment predictions, and anticipation of authority action I have had to make at my end to be so lucky.
The skeptics will always be skeptics. The believers will find a path.
errrr....this is walkthetiger you are responding to, not teddybear le, so need to taunt :)
how does the maths work out for the 1st and 2nd chicken?
i have trouble computing for the 1st chicken.
if every few years mean 5 years, the current yield would be like 40% based on the original price.
if every few years mean 10 years, the current yield would be like 20%, based on the original price.
When did you buy the property? Is the property HDB?
for the 2nd chicken, it was bought in 2012? and (gross?) yield was ~4%?
how to pay off in 5 years time? even if nett yield was ~4% and rental proceeds be used for accelerated payment, i dont think it can pay off in 5 years.
& how many years does it take for the rental income to double that of the purchase price?
please go through the maths, i am much interested (and pretty sure many others would be too).
walkthetiger
06-05-17, 14:04
Again, I have to agree on this. Only when they try to sell it now at their wishful prices, they will realistically understand the true worth of their property assets. It's over, just another new group of Asset rich Cash poor in making.
Sell also cannot buy why sell.
There is two side of a coin, you chose to see which side same with a cup of half fill water, I see half full other see half empty.
Bank valuation depends on whether you buying or selling and to who.
Only have a limited understanding of investing since I was programmed as a worker to work.
1. How many 10 years do you have.
2. Got money keep in the Bank to depreciate.
3. Money is created by Bank, in Singapore MAS control the rate of creation.
4. Invest in the thing where you know.
5. Read more to reduce the risk of not knowing call "Big Data".
6. Try not to stay in the Well and look at the sky.[/QUOTE]
I don't advise you to sell now, keep it till you are much older or for your children to feel rich and work lesser.
Anyway your neighbour thanks you for helping to hold the price, but ain't doing you a favour in return, they all claim their selling unit is better and rare yet at cheaper price. Anyway, the market the doesn't need your extra unit to be in for sale, it has already flooded with sale properties.
errrr....this is walkthetiger you are responding to, not teddybear le, so need to taunt :)
please go through the maths, i am much interested (and pretty sure many others would be too).
Our nicks say very much about our stance.
All the Bears and Tigers that belongs to the Woods, their stands have not moved ever...
I always believe everyone has a unique way to benefit from their personal situation and property.
I do not count my eggs easily. Only after more than a decade of understanding how the system works and benefitting do I start to share. Too much details also spoil the route for others on their self discovery.
When I share, people always think I am lucky. They have no idea how many scenario role play, big environment predictions, and anticipation of authority action I have had to make at my end to be so lucky.
The skeptics will always be skeptics. The believers will find a path.
errr...does that mean no sharing of the maths nor secret paths to be revealed ? :)
in the 1st chicken case, we don't know the time of purchase and yield. but we do we know that ccr yield is like 2-3%, ocr is like 4-5%. hdb is like 8-10%, at time of purchase for the past few years. sure it can varies, but not by much.
so even if rent were to double, i cannot see how accumulated rental income can be double the original price every few years (which i take it to be less than 10 years, unless every few years means more than 10 years?)
one route i can figure out is bought HDB $100,000 a few years back :), currently rent out for $2k/mth. so after 10 years, accumulated rental income is $240k, which is more than double the purchase price. i think you are still young, that's why HDB price is stated at $100k instead of $10k, (which translates to rental income being 2.4x of the purchase price every YEAR.)
on the second chicken case, we know the time of purchase (2012), yield (4%).
from there, i can't figure out a path to repaying the mortgage in 5 years time solely on the rental proceeds of the 2nd chicken. essentially it will be a 10 year mortgage (from 2012-2022). based on 1% interest rate, 10 year mortgage, LTV60%, 4% rental yield will not be able to cover monthly payment. it has to be topped-up. perhaps rental proceeds from 1st chicken help the 2nd chicken?
and i don't see how accumulated rental income can be doubled that of property in 20 years (rate of doubling slow down), except maybe rental double to 10%, x 20 years = 200%?
we don't need to know secret formulae, scenarios, anticipations etc,
we need to know only a few basic figures, like time of purchase, yield , ltv, hdb/private to do our own calculatons.
or perhaps we all need to know what is meant by a few years :) that's the rub, a few years might mean different things to different people :)
errr...does that mean no sharing of the maths nor secret paths to be revealed ? :)
in the 1st chicken case, we don't know the time of purchase and yield. but we do we know that ccr yield is like 2-3%, ocr is like 4-5%. hdb is like 8-10%, at time of purchase for the past few years. sure it can varies, but not by much.
so even if rent were to double, i cannot see how accumulated rental income can be double the original price every few years (which i take it to be less than 10 years, unless every few years means more than 10 years?)
one route i can figure out is bought HDB $100,000 a few years back :), currently rent out for $2k/mth. so after 10 years, accumulated rental income is $240k, which is more than double the purchase price. i think you are still young, that's why HDB price is stated at $100k instead of $10k, (which translates to rental income being 2.4x of the purchase price every YEAR.)
on the second chicken case, we know the time of purchase (2012), yield (4%).
from there, i can't figure out a path to repaying the mortgage in 5 years time solely on the rental proceeds of the 2nd chicken. essentially it will be a 10 year mortgage (from 2012-2022). based on 1% interest rate, 10 year mortgage, LTV60%, 4% rental yield will not be able to cover monthly payment. it has to be topped-up. perhaps rental proceeds from 1st chicken help the 2nd chicken?
and i don't see how accumulated rental income can be doubled that of property in 20 years (rate of doubling slow down), except maybe rental double to 10%, x 20 years = 200%?
we don't need to know secret formulae, scenarios, anticipations etc,
we need to know only a few basic figures, like time of purchase, yield , ltv, hdb/private to do our own calculatons.
or perhaps we all need to know what is meant by a few years :) that's the rub, a few years might mean different things to different people :)
If you know the Basis, you know the Math.
From my sharing I get to know lot of Math and some Math is not good to share.
My Math very easy, even IRAS, MINDEF also give up.
Thanks for the interest. Let me help you on a few aspects, but can't share all.
Doubling the original amount means to me (based on your 100K example), earning back 100K within less than a few years (single digit). Claiming to gain any higher than this will be a scam already.
Claiming to be able to settle mortgage in 5 years means I have the cash and CPF buffer plus other investment gains to do so, and the risk I have undertaken is measured and moderate. I never said the rental will settle mortgage in 5 years. It's a FH unit anyway so definitely can ride through this period. I have revealed the yield so I know what I mentioned. Any yield above 3% is still a go ahead especially since the interest is 1+%.
Being too Hopeful will set us up to be susceptible to scams. Good day.
errr...does that mean no sharing of the maths nor secret paths to be revealed ? :)
in the 1st chicken case, we don't know the time of purchase and yield. but we do we know that ccr yield is like 2-3%, ocr is like 4-5%. hdb is like 8-10%, at time of purchase for the past few years. sure it can varies, but not by much.
so even if rent were to double, i cannot see how accumulated rental income can be double the original price every few years (which i take it to be less than 10 years, unless every few years means more than 10 years?)
one route i can figure out is buy HDB for $100,000, rent out for $2k/mth. so after 10 years, accumulated rental income is $240k, which is more than double the purchase price. i think you are still young, that's why HDB price is stated at $100k instead of $10k, (which translates to rental income being 2.4x of the purchase price every YEAR.)
on the second chicken case, we know the time of purchase (2012), yield (4%).
from there, i can't figure out a path to repaying the mortgage in 5 years time solely on the rental proceeds of the 2nd chicken. essentially it will be a 10 year mortgage (from 2012-2022). based on 1% interest rate, 10 year mortgage, LTV60%, 4% rental yield will not be able to cover monthly payment. it has to be topped-up. perhaps rental proceeds from 1st chicken help the 2nd chicken?
and i don't see how accumulated rental income can be doubled that of property in 20 years (rate of doubling slow down), except maybe rental double to 10%, x 20 years = 200%?
we don't need to know secret formulae, scenarios, anticipations etc,
we need to know only a few basic figures, like time of purchase, yield , ltv, hdb/private to do our own calculatons.
or perhaps we all need to know what is meant by a few years :) that's the rub, a few years might mean different things to different people :)
One indication that the condo market is still not quite there yet is that this forum remains super quiet.
A couple of years back it was indeed super quiet.
Now even Chestnut brother is back, bear postings are super furious, how is it super quiet?
That's right, there are many bear postings but much less about projects and buying.
bargain hunter
07-05-17, 15:07
That's right, there are many bear postings but much less about projects and buying.
somehow the buyers do not discuss the projects here before they buy anymore.
somehow the buyers do not discuss the projects here before they buy anymore.
Yup, I don't generally like to discuss individual projects vested especially before purchase.
Nothing much to discuss also. But the project WhatsApp and Facebook posts are furious too.
thanks for clarifying what every few years mean, however i have to re-read a few times to avoid miscomprehending what you just wrote.
how did "1 chicken fully paid and generating income that doubles its original price every few years" becomes "Doubling the original amount means to me (based on your 100K example), earning back 100K within less than a few years (single digit)."
to me at least, income that doubles its original price =/= earning back the purchase price
to me at least, 1st statement means pay $100 and earn accumulated income of $200 (in a few years), & not pay $100 and earn $100.
is my english grammar+comprehension really that bad? or has the goal posts been shifted?
by the way, you really cannot mention the kind of property (hdb/condo/office/industrial/commercial) and year of purchase for the 1st property meh?
it is important to find whether the both statements made are viable.
& i am scratching my head over this sentence.
"...It's a FH unit anyway so definitely can ride through this period."
and what has the status of the 2nd property (FH) has anything to do with the ability to "definitely can ride through this period"?
if 2nd property is LH, then does the sentence become "maybe can ride through this period"?
"But I share too much like Arcachon sure a lot of unhappiness." i REALLY disagree with your statement.
if you reveal techniques, i will be very very happy.
your properties mentioned in this thread so far:
1st property (year??) rented out, fully paid
2nd property (2012) rented out, mortgage, ABSD??
3rd property (2015) under construction, LTV80%, no ABSD
4th property (year??) overseas, rented out/own stay ??
FUTURE 5th property (year??) need to pay ABSD,
questions:
1) where do you stay? seems to me like there are no local properties for own-stay.
2) for the 3rd property (2015), how do you avoid paying ABSD assuming all properties purchased are residential and under personal names. correct me if the assumptions are wrong.
based on above assumptons, it is de-coupling + another person's name (child?). once again, correct me if i am wrong.
is this sentence "Being too Hopeful will set us up to be susceptible to scams" linked to "Claiming to gain any higher than this will be a scam already."
pardon my poor english, but who is the one claiming to "1 chicken fully paid and generating income that doubles its original price every few years."
Tell you got money to earn? Anyway, maybe some misreading originally so I clarified for you already. For first property, based on current valuation, is about 7% yield. Minimum if deduct some more is still 6%. So you can calculate whichever way you wish without misrepresentation.
I cannot reveal everything until I fully retire, but am definitely not the only one leading this weird misconstrued life. I believe brother Arcachon was also given similar opportunities which he embraced.
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