View Full Version : Singapore property prices have peaked - govt
Singapore property prices have peaked - govt
Singapore property prices have peaked - govt
SINGAPORE, May 23 (Reuters) - Singapore's booming property market has peaked and will continue to moderate over the next two years, the country's trade ministry said on Friday.
Singapore's central bank said that while the financial services industry could face some slowdown there was no evidence of a large job cuts.
"There could be some slowdown, but not major slowdown.
Anecdotal evidence shows that while financial institutions are reviewing headcounts and business lines, they are also looking at several areas of growth," Monetary Authority of Singapore Deputy Managing Director Ong Chon Tee told a news conference.
(Reporting by Jan Dahinten & Saeed Azhar) ((
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a plateau, not a drop
23-05-08, 12:35
I think in the long term, the property sector will continue to grow although i do agree that prices have peaked at this juncture and the property market is currently slowing down. However it is still sustained by the influx of people wanting to rent. I am currently renting my private condo and when i put it up for rent 2 mths ago, i was pleasantly surprised by the number that was interested. And my condo was in Hougang,not exactly a prefered location but thankfully i got the KPE. Whew. Highest offer was 3.4k per mth and i was also surprised when the rentor said that was reasonable. In the end, i settled for 3.2k as i felt the couple would take better care of the house. But a tip, just spend some money to spruce up your hse, throw a fresh coat of paint, get some on sale furniture from established companies like Picket and Rail, Barang Barang and you will be surprised how potential rentors are willing to pay a slightly higher premium.
I do not believe the IRs, F1 Race, Spore Flyer etc etc will push up property prices in line with popular sentiments. What i am confident in is Singapore's position as a Hub, be it finance, high tech, shipping, entertainment, sporting etc etc. Post 911, many were concerned with a drop in the economy but surprisingly, Singapore experienced a growth. Its simple deductions really. 911 or not, there is money to be made in the growing Asia Pacific Region and foreign companies or funds will continue to park their money here in the near future. However, they will need a regional HQ to manage their operations. If you are the CEO, where would you choose? In the current socio-political climate where stability is craved for, Singapore is the natural choice, thats why we see all the international meetings being held in Singapore post 911. The foreigners also want to have fun while they are here so that is when the IRs, Spore Flyer, St James, Clarke Quay and F1 Race falls into place to entice them. We are just darn lucky we are located in a darn solid geographical location free of natural disasters.
Office rent is expensive but compared to HK or Japan, Singapore is still cheaper. And Singaporeans are generally billingual in English and Chinese so the communication aspect is settled. Ever tried asking for directions in Japan and HK? Think of it. Singapore has a good transport network, good sporting and entertainment facilities, wide choice of metropolitan cusines and most importantly, a safe and conducive environment. Our Sg ladies not that bad too. This is is comparison to our ASEAN neighbours. Try the peak hr jam in Bangkok. They say smoking is bad for health but try the air in Bangkok. Maybe the ladies' part is subjective.
Imagine i am a foreigner in Sg in 2012. The choice of cusines is 2nd to none, i can sample all sorts of food, from Turkish Novelty Ice Cream to Mediterranean Vegetarian to even top rated char kuay tiao add lots of see hum. I can watch world class theatre shows like Phantom of the Opera at the Esplanade, i can catch all my fav concerts acts, black eye pea, Andy Lau etc at the Expo or Indoor Stadium, i can choose to try my luck at the IR Casino, i can bring my kids to the IR theme park, i can catch all the major sporting events esp when the sporting hub is up, my work place is at most 30 - 45 mins to my home, i do not have to spend 12hrs travelling from one place of attraction to another, i can merry the night away at St James etc etc. I have the F1 race to look forward to. This will entice people to set up homes in Sg. I just need 0.001% of the super rich in China or India to come and set up base here and imagine the property prices then. Still $500 psf for condos?
But of course, the drawback is Born and Bred Singaporeans might not get to enjoy it. It is just like how when we go on holidays in Malaysia, Thailand or Indonesia, we feel like king and we spend money like nobody business and we whack seafood by the Kgs. And with $$$, all the hot girls throw themselves at you irregardless of whether you look if you are 7 mths pregnant. But look at the lifestyle of the locals, i am sure they are looking at you with envious eyes and sometimes this has led to jealousy among some of our immediate neighbours.
Having said all, i am very interested in the verdict of the Pedra Blanca issue. The winner will have certain boasting rights.
I always believed the theory of the one holding onto the hot potato.
peaking, pls dun duck
23-05-08, 15:41
Just to share, one retired broker, now living the high life, told me his secret and it is a simple "When people sell, you buy, when people buy, you sell" It is a simple sentence but not many got the foresight but more dominantly the guts, or put it crudely, the balls to put their money in. I am more of a moderate risk taker so i tend to go in earlier on sectors which i feel have potential. Like the stock market, it is too late to enter by the time the stock hit top volume, already rose by 40%, recent release of good news, etc etc. You will always be at the tail end if you enter late. So it is really about your appetite for risk.
Take property for eg, i bought mine about 3 mths ago when there was a lot of apprehension and doubts. When i bought my 1300 sqft apartment, i got it at $470 psf from the sale price of $500 psf and i managed to negotiate down the price by just gently applying pressure on the "inner doubts and fears" in the owner. no doubt fuelled by all the hoo ha by all the banks, coffeeshop uncles, office "self proclaimed expert" colleagues, foreign banks who are struggling to keep afloat, expert analysis, housing agents etc. Now the last transacted price is $510 psf and based on my projections, it will rise further in the coming years. And i have a 2yr rental at 3.2k locked in, and my mthly repayment is 1.9k. I empty my CPF every mth but i would prefer extra cash in my bank acct anyday, esp now with the lock in amt at 130k which is projected to increase in future.
So bro, it is really up to you to decide when to go in. Basically if demand exceeds supply, one will make money. I believe that there will be a demand for Singapore property for reasons stated in my previous post and that is why i chose to invest when the popular sentiments is to hold and wait. Now i am looking to invest in Australian properties which are located near the major Unis because the demand for them is evergreen and rental rates are always rising. Just saw one ad on a property in Surfers' Paradise which is really promising.
And it brought me to another interesting debate which is the rage nowadays, the influx of PRs into our country. I got friends complaining that 1st class honours are always taken by the foreigners, etc etc. It was a similar scenario when i was studying in Australia. The Sporeans students mostly outscore the Australians (no sweat even in Arts courses)and sometimes i can sense a little bit of animosity during tutorials. But really we must look at it from an objective angle. The aussies have no idea what burning the midnight oil is and the only place to find them after 5pm is either at the Uni or Local Pubs. Try asking them to do project review at your house on Sat and see their response. If you see a room light on from 10pm onwards, bet your last dollar it must be an asian. It is the same here, i see those PRs working their socks off day and night and while our singaporean students are hitting at bikini clad babes at sentosa, they are hitting the books.
Now eagerly awaiting the Pedra Blanca's verdict.
Unregisteredxyz
23-05-08, 18:05
Hahaha...! Nice story, but there are more intelligent people out there than you think.
But of course, the drawback is Born and Bred Singaporeans might not get to enjoy it. It is just like how when we go on holidays in Malaysia, Thailand or Indonesia, we feel like king and we spend money like nobody business and we whack seafood by the Kgs. And with $$$, all the hot girls throw themselves at you irregardless of whether you look if you are 7 mths pregnant. But look at the lifestyle of the locals, i am sure they are looking at you with envious eyes and sometimes this has led to jealousy among some of our immediate neighbours.
Yes. This is what I am very afraid of.
Nobody 50 years ago could have imagined the kind of salaries that we are earning today.
At the same stages in our respective lives, my father was earning 10 times what my grandfather was earning; while I am earning 10 times what my father was earning. So I am earning 100 times what my grandfather was earning, yet he stayed in a bigger house in a more prime area than me.
So what kind of salaries will people be earning in 50 years' time?
What will happen to the value of money that we place in our banks, earning the paltry interest that is not enough to offset inflation?
Now the foreigners are coming here to see doctors and stay in hospitals for their aesthetic medicine. Will they drive up medical costs to the extent that I cannot afford medical treatment and am left to die at the road side?
I think Singapore should not try to develop into medical hub. I don't like the idea of all these foreigners coming here for medical treatment.
I am very scared that next time when I'm old and sick, the doctors don't want to treat me but prefer to give Botox facial treatment to the Myanmar generals' wives who come here because they can pay higher.
That's why I'm thinking what type of asset can offset inflation. Something that is rare, like Picasso's artwork, though that's too expensive and out of my budget. I'm looking at conservation shophouses. They're rare and their supply is limited.
Do you think shophouses are good investments? Like those in Tanjong Pagar or Boat Quay areas?
I need something to outbid those Myanmar generals' wives in the last days of my life. When the doctor starts to abandon me to give Botox treatment to the Myanmar generals' wife, at least I can wave my title deed at the doctor and shout "DOCTOR! if you insert this oxygen tube for me ... ah ... ah ... ah ... I'll give you this shophouse at Boat Quay worth $500 million!". :scared-4:
Assuming it has gone up 100 times by then. :2cents:
Unregistered,
26-05-08, 13:32
wow ... what will happen to our dreams
Yes. This is what I am very afraid of.
Nobody 50 years ago could have imagined the kind of salaries that we are earning today.
At the same stages in our respective lives, my father was earning 10 times what my grandfather was earning; while I am earning 10 times what my father was earning. So I am earning 100 times what my grandfather was earning, yet he stayed in a bigger house in a more prime area than me.
So what kind of salaries will people be earning in 50 years' time?
What will happen to the value of money that we place in our banks, earning the paltry interest that is not enough to offset inflation?
Now the foreigners are coming here to see doctors and stay in hospitals for their aesthetic medicine. Will they drive up medical costs to the extent that I cannot afford medical treatment and am left to die at the road side?
I think Singapore should not try to develop into medical hub. I don't like the idea of all these foreigners coming here for medical treatment.
I am very scared that next time when I'm old and sick, the doctors don't want to treat me but prefer to give Botox facial treatment to the Myanmar generals' wives who come here because they can pay higher.
That's why I'm thinking what type of asset can offset inflation. Something that is rare, like Picasso's artwork, though that's too expensive and out of my budget. I'm looking at conservation shophouses. They're rare and their supply is limited.
Do you think shophouses are good investments? Like those in Tanjong Pagar or Boat Quay areas?
I need something to outbid those Myanmar generals' wives in the last days of my life. When the doctor starts to abandon me to give Botox treatment to the Myanmar generals' wife, at least I can wave my title deed at the doctor and shout "DOCTOR! if you insert this oxygen tube for me ... ah ... ah ... ah ... I'll give you this shophouse at Boat Quay worth $500 million!".
Assuming it has gone up 100 times by then.
Unregistered8888
26-05-08, 17:57
From DMG!
The Storm before the Calm
We recently presented our views on the property sector at the Asia Real Estate Fundamentals Conference 2008 held in Singapore. Over 100 fund managers, asset managers and senior management of property firms attended the conference. The following paper details our presentation.
A stark contrast. This time last year, it was clear blue skies for the property sector, firing on practically all cylinders. But the sub-prime crisis in the US hit the stock and property markets hard. Sentiments and interest in property started to dive in Oct 07, with many launches being pushed back due to an expected lacklustre demand. It dealt a crushing blow to property buyers’ appetite and sentiments, as witnessed by the 730 new private residential units sold in 1Q08 - a 47.7% drop from 4Q07. Compared to the average quarterly transacted units of 3,537 in 2007, this number represented an even more significant plunge of 74.9%. En-bloc market practically capitulated.
Some lingering concerns. There are some concerns which will affect property prices (both physical and capital markets) in the next 12 months. One important pressure point is the stock market. It has seen wild swings and has largely been on a downtrend since 4Q07. Given the tight correlation between equity and property, it is unsurprising that property market was also hard hit. As a result of the dampened sentiments, property developers are adopting a wait-and-see attitude and holding back the launches.
Oversupply to pressure prices? There are 67,736 uncompleted units in the pipeline (excluding the Government Land Sales Programme), of which 63% has yet to be sold and 83.4% are expected to be come onstream between 2Q08 and 2011, it is not inconceivable that worries of a supply glut in the property sector have been mooted. We believe demand will be more than the past 10-year average, given an influx of foreigners in the coming few years. We estimate the vacancy rate to be 5.4% - 7.9% from 2008 – 2013, not too far away from the average annual vacancy rate of 7.7%. This gives us a good enough reason to conclude that the concerns of an over-supply have been overplayed.Run for cover with REIT in the near term. Given the near term uncertainties, we believe stock prices for properties will remain pressured. In the next 3-6 months, we favour REITs, which have good earnings visibility and high dividend yields. Their defensive nature should shield investors from the volatility in the stock market. We like CapitaMall Trust, Suntec REIT and Cambridge Industrial Trust.
Developers present good value further out. There is a confluence of positive drivers, including population growth and the successful remaking of Singapore, which will likely drive property prices in the long-haul. When the property sector makes a comeback, the front-runners will once again be the large cap developers. We favour CapitaLand and Keppel Land.
fundamentals
02-06-08, 11:01
I think right now property prices are condo-specific. The rising tide floated all boats, but now that the tide is sinking, some boats are found to be better equipped than others.
Condos that are in the same area, neighbouring condos even, can differ in price by up to $500 psf! Look at Robertson Quay condos, Newton condos, River Valley condos. The main reason for this phenomenon should rest solely on the attributes and quality of the condo, not just location and the usual property gimmicks. Now that the market is going down, condos that are crap have been exposed for what they are.
I do not want to name any specific condo but if you looked at the caveats in those locations you should be able to find out which ones are good and which ones are crap.
As always (but ignored during the frenzied buying of 2007), look deeper into the fundamentals of a property, not only surface attributes such as location. There are lots of other tangible/intangible variables that affect a buyer's decision on a property. That explains why some condo prices remain firm while others are being dumped at low prices.
I think right now property prices are condo-specific. The rising tide floated all boats, but now that the tide is sinking, some boats are found to be better equipped than others.
Condos that are in the same area, neighbouring condos even, can differ in price by up to $500 psf! Look at Robertson Quay condos, Newton condos, River Valley condos. The main reason for this phenomenon should rest solely on the attributes and quality of the condo, not just location and the usual property gimmicks. Now that the market is going down, condos that are crap have been exposed for what they are.
I do not want to name any specific condo but if you looked at the caveats in those locations you should be able to find out which ones are good and which ones are crap.
As always (but ignored during the frenzied buying of 2007), look deeper into the fundamentals of a property, not only surface attributes such as location. There are lots of other tangible/intangible variables that affect a buyer's decision on a property. That explains why some condo prices remain firm while others are being dumped at low prices.
Just curious, are you a property agent? Which development do you reckon is the best buy now?
WHERE GOT OVERSUPPLY?
04-06-08, 13:27
67,736 has been overblown, actual will be 45,000 or below.
No oversupply in next 4-5 years.
实际供应过剩情况 不如想像中严重
（2008-06-04）
早报导读
● 吴慧敏
（吴慧敏报道）虽然官方数字显示，未来四五年内可能有六七万个私宅单位完工，但受访的房地产界人士认为，实际的供应过剩情况并不如想像中严重。
这是因为一些单位将在这段期间被拆除，一些工程也会因为建筑业紧绷而延迟完成。此外，两座综合度假胜地和新加坡的移民政策也将吸引更多外国人迁移到新加坡居住，刺激住房需求上升。
第一太平戴维斯的邱瑞荣说：“最近一些报告，过度放大楼市的供应数字。实际上，现有的潜在供应是足以被市场消化的，不过由于市场气氛已经转弱，政府必须更谨慎地推出新的地皮，以免真的导致过剩的情况出现。”
最近，好几家银行发表的房地产报告都估计，新加坡楼市（特别是豪宅价格）将在未来三年内下跌高达30％至40％。其中一个原因是本地楼市的潜在供应量相当惊人，高达六七万个单位。
相比较之下，本地楼市的“消化能力”却急剧下降，今年第一季只卖出了762个新私宅单位，这是过去12年以来最低的季度之一。
高力国际的郑惠匀说：“截至2008年第一季，私宅潜在供应量为6万7736个，这似乎很多。但如果扣除大约8500个可能因为集体出售交易而拆除的单位，以及一些因为建筑紧缩情况而延迟完工的单位、因为市场气氛较弱而延迟推出的单位，实际的潜在供应量其实会显著减少，可能只有4万5000个单位左右。”
她认为，这样的供应量应能轻易在未来四五年内被“消化”。虽然过去几年，本地的私宅“消化能力”每年只有大约7000个单位，但她相信未来几年的需求将因为两座IR、滨海湾商业城等项目而提高。
“从这些数据来看，本地私宅市的供应应该不会过剩，而会在中期能取得平衡。不过，为了确保能够达到国家长期的住房需求，政府应该继续确保有稳定的供地，特别是在目前较为呆滞的私人发展售地市场。
condoinvestor
04-06-08, 13:30
67,736 has been overblown, actual will be 45,000 or below.
No oversupply in next 4-5 years.
实际供应过剩情况 不如想像中严重
（2008-06-04）
早报导读
● 吴慧敏
（吴慧敏报道）虽然官方数字显示，未来四五年内可能有六七万个私宅单位完工，但受访的房地产界人士认为，实际的供应过剩情况并不如想像中严重。
这是因为一些单位将在这段期间被拆除，一些工程也会因为建筑业紧绷而延迟完成。此外，两座综合度假胜地和新加坡的移民政策也将吸引更多外国人迁移到新加坡居住，刺激住房需求上升。
第一太平戴维斯的邱瑞荣说：“最近一些报告，过度放大楼市的供应数字。实际上，现有的潜在供应是足以被市场消化的，不过由于市场气氛已经转弱，政府必须更谨慎地推出新的地皮，以免真的导致过剩的情况出现。”
最近，好几家银行发表的房地产报告都估计，新加坡楼市（特别是豪宅价格）将在未来三年内下跌高达30％至40％。其中一个原因是本地楼市的潜在供应量相当惊人，高达六七万个单位。
相比较之下，本地楼市的“消化能力”却急剧下降，今年第一季只卖出了762个新私宅单位，这是过去12年以来最低的季度之一。
高力国际的郑惠匀说：“截至2008年第一季，私宅潜在供应量为6万7736个，这似乎很多。但如果扣除大约8500个可能因为集体出售交易而拆除的单位，以及一些因为建筑紧缩情况而延迟完工的单位、因为市场气氛较弱而延迟推出的单位，实际的潜在供应量其实会显著减少，可能只有4万5000个单位左右。”
她认为，这样的供应量应能轻易在未来四五年内被“消化”。虽然过去几年，本地的私宅“消化能力”每年只有大约7000个单位，但她相信未来几年的需求将因为两座IR、滨海湾商业城等项目而提高。
“从这些数据来看，本地私宅市的供应应该不会过剩，而会在中期能取得平衡。不过，为了确保能够达到国家长期的住房需求，政府应该继续确保有稳定的供地，特别是在目前较为呆滞的私人发展售地市场。
Dear friend would appreciate if you could translate that, thanks
no oversupply lah!
04-06-08, 13:52
Actual supply surplus situation as serious as imagined
(2008-06-04)
Morning Post REVIEW
● Hui-Min Wu
(Hui-Min Wu reported), although the official figures show that within the next 45 months may have Liuqi Wan private residence units completed, but the respondents believe that the real estate sector, the actual supply surplus situation is not as serious as imagined.
This is because some units will be removed in the meantime, some projects will be delayed because the completion of the construction industry and tension. In addition, the two integrated resorts and Singapore's immigration policy will also move to attract more foreigners living in Singapore, to stimulate housing demand.
First Pacific Davies of Qiurui Rong said: "Recently some reports, over the property market to enlarge the supply figures. In fact, the existing potential is sufficient to supply the market to digest, but because of market sentiment has weakened, the Government must be more Carefully the introduction of new sites, so as not to really lead to the surplus situation. "
Recently, several real estate report released by the Bank have estimated that the property market in Singapore (especially the luxury flat prices) over the next three years, fell as much as 30-40 percent. One of the reasons for the local property market is the potential availability of very alarming, as much as Liu Qiwan units
In comparison, the local property market's "ability to digest" is a sharp decline in first quarter of this year only sold 762 units of new private houses, this is the past 12 years has been one of the lowest quarter.
High-power international ZHENG Hui-Yun said: "As the first quarter of 2008, the potential supply of private homes for 67,736, which seems a lot, but if the deduction of about 8500, probably because the collective sale of the units have been removed, and some because of construction Tightening conditions delayed the completion of the unit, as market sentiment weak and delayed the launch units, the actual supply of potential in fact be significantly reduced, with only 45,000 units around. "
In her view, such a supply should be able to easily within the next 45 "to digest." Although the past few years, the local private houses, "the ability to digest" Every year there are only about 7,000 units, but she believed the next few years because demand for two IR, Marina Bay City, and other commercial projects increased.
"From these data, local private houses should not supply the city of excess, but will in the medium term to achieve a balance. However, in order to ensure that countries can achieve long-term housing needs, the Government should continue to ensure a stable supply, especially in At present relatively sluggish development of the private land sales market.
Actual supply surplus situation as serious as imagined
(2008-06-04)
Morning Post REVIEW
● Hui-Min Wu
(Hui-Min Wu reported), although the official figures show that within the next 45 months may have Liuqi Wan private residence units completed, but the respondents believe that the real estate sector, the actual supply surplus situation is not as serious as imagined.
This is because some units will be removed in the meantime, some projects will be delayed because the completion of the construction industry and tension. In addition, the two integrated resorts and Singapore's immigration policy will also move to attract more foreigners living in Singapore, to stimulate housing demand.
First Pacific Davies of Qiurui Rong said: "Recently some reports, over the property market to enlarge the supply figures. In fact, the existing potential is sufficient to supply the market to digest, but because of market sentiment has weakened, the Government must be more Carefully the introduction of new sites, so as not to really lead to the surplus situation. "
Recently, several real estate report released by the Bank have estimated that the property market in Singapore (especially the luxury flat prices) over the next three years, fell as much as 30-40 percent. One of the reasons for the local property market is the potential availability of very alarming, as much as Liu Qiwan units
In comparison, the local property market's "ability to digest" is a sharp decline in first quarter of this year only sold 762 units of new private houses, this is the past 12 years has been one of the lowest quarter.
High-power international ZHENG Hui-Yun said: "As the first quarter of 2008, the potential supply of private homes for 67,736, which seems a lot, but if the deduction of about 8500, probably because the collective sale of the units have been removed, and some because of construction Tightening conditions delayed the completion of the unit, as market sentiment weak and delayed the launch units, the actual supply of potential in fact be significantly reduced, with only 45,000 units around. "
In her view, such a supply should be able to easily within the next 45 "to digest." Although the past few years, the local private houses, "the ability to digest" Every year there are only about 7,000 units, but she believed the next few years because demand for two IR, Marina Bay City, and other commercial projects increased.
"From these data, local private houses should not supply the city of excess, but will in the medium term to achieve a balance. However, in order to ensure that countries can achieve long-term housing needs, the Government should continue to ensure a stable supply, especially in At present relatively sluggish development of the private land sales market.
You miss a "NOT" in your title.
'Actual supply surplus situation NOT as serious as imagined'
You miss a "NOT" in your title.
'Actual supply surplus situation NOT as serious as imagined'
This translation must have been done by some automated software like Babel Fish.
It's quite hilarious ... "六七万" which should translate to "60,000 to 70,000" becomes translated into "Liuqi Wan" instead, which sounds like somebody's name. :doh:
When I ran this through Babel Fish, "六七万" is translated correctly as "60,000-70,000", but the rest of it is equally if not more nonsensical (See below). Note: 45 years should actually be 4 to 5 years.
The actual supply surplus situation is inferior to the imagination serious
(2008-06-04)
morning paper guidance
* Wu Huimin (Wu Huimin report),
although the official digit demonstrated that in 45 years possibly will have next 60,000-70,000 private residence units to finish, but will be interviewed the real estate public figure believed that the actual supply surplus situation and will be inferior to the imagination serious.
This is because some units in this period is demolished, some projects also because the architecture industry will tie tight delayed finish. In addition, two synthesis vacation resort and Singapore's land settlement policy will also attract more foreigners to migrate to Singapore lives, stimulates the housing demand rise.
First peaceful Davies's Qiu Ruirong said: “some reports, enlarged real estate market's supply digit excessively recently. In fact, the existing latent supply is sufficiently by the market digestion, but because the market sentiment already transferred weakly, the government must promote the new land for building discretely, in order to avoid really causes the surplus situation to appear.”
Recently, several bank publication's real estate reported estimated that the Singapore real estate market (will be specially mansion price) will fall in the next three years reaches as high as 30% to 40%. And a reason is the local real estate market's latent supply is quite astonishing, reaches as high as 60,000-70,000 units.
Under compares, the local real estate market “digestion ability” actually suddenly drops, the first season only has sold this year 762 new private residence units, since this has been past one of 12 year lowest quarters.
High strength international Zheng Huiyun said: “up to 2008 the first season, the private residence latent supply is 67,736, this are as if many. But if deducts about 8500 possibilities demolishes because of the collective sell transaction the unit, as well as some retard the unit which, the unit which because of the construction contraction situation finishes is weak because of the market sentiment retards promotes, the actual latent supply will obviously reduce actually, possibly will have about 45,000 units.”
She believed that such supply ought to be able easily in the next 45 years the quilt “the digestion”. Although past several years, local private residence “digestion ability” every year only then about 7000 units, but she believed that in the future several year demand because of two IR, projects and so on shore bay business city will enhance. “looking from these data, the local private residence city supply should not be surplus, but will be able to obtain balanced in the intermediate stage. However, to guarantee that can achieve the national long-term housing demand, the government should continue to guarantee has stably supplies, specially personal sends at present the delay sells by exhibition the market.
condoinvestor
05-06-08, 22:23
Thanks guys, did read it once very briefly but roughly made out the gist of it, this is probably the first positive piece of news concerning the singapore property market in recent times, cheers
Form the state of the forum we can see the state of the property market. Down in the doldrums. 40% downside expected. Buyers market.
Form the state of the forum we can see the state of the property market. Down in the doldrums. 40% downside expected. Buyers market.
Maybe happen in your dream.
Maybe happen in your dream.
40% drop? just ignore such nuisance.
Likely to be 40% up.
I say up by another 60%! All the Asian wealth flowing into Singapore. Property price can only go one way - up. There is also no over supply, because population also expected to go up to 6.5 million.
Unregistered_111
06-06-08, 21:26
I say up by another 60%! All the Asian wealth flowing into Singapore. Property price can only go one way - up. There is also no over supply, because population also expected to go up to 6.5 million.
U guys are consoling yourselves, global economic situation in a mess now and yet still so optimistic, 'kudos' to you guys!!!
The speculators getting fried and day dreaming about property going up. It will be worse than the worst crash ever. 40% downside is an understatement.
Everyone says
06-06-08, 21:39
U.S. Payrolls Fall, Unemployment Rate Climbs to 5.5%
By Shobhana Chandra
June 6 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. lost jobs in May for a fifth month and the unemployment rate rose by the most in more than two decades, signaling that the world's largest economy is stalling.
Payrolls fell by 49,000 after a 28,000 drop in April, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate increased by half a point to 5.5 percent, higher than every forecast in a Bloomberg News survey, as an influx of teenagers into the workforce exceeded jobs available.
Employers are cutting back to protect profits as raw- material costs soar and sales slow. A weaker job market is another blow to Americans hit by falling home values, scarcer credit and higher fuel bills, adding to the risk that the longest consumer-spending expansion on record will come to an end.
``The labor market is still deteriorating,'' said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts. ``The story is, we're still on the verge of a recession'' and ``at best, the economy is growing very, very slowly.''
Treasuries rose after the report, sending yields on benchmark 10-year notes down to 4 percent at 8:57 a.m. in New York, from 4.04 percent late yesterday. Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index dropped 0.6 percent to 1,396.30. The dollar weakened.
Revisions subtracted 15,000 from payroll figures previously reported for March and April.
Economists' Forecasts
Economists had projected payrolls would drop by 60,000 after a previously reported 20,000 decline the prior month, according to the median of 79 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from decreases of 150,000 to 10,000. The jobless rate was forecast to rise to 5.1 percent from 5 percent.
The unemployment rate, the highest since October 2004, reflected an expansion of the workforce, led by teenagers. The increase in the rate was the biggest since February 1986.
A loss of jobs is one of the criteria used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to determine when recessions begin and end. The group, the official arbiter in the U.S., defines contractions as a ``significant'' decrease in activity over a sustained period of time. In addition to payrolls, changes in sales, incomes, production and gross domestic product are also considered.
Payrolls shrank by 324,000 workers in the first five months of the year. In 2007, the economy generated 91,000 new jobs a month on average.
Recession Call
``We've never seen a run of negative payroll numbers like this without the economy being in a recession,'' Avery Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC World Markets in Toronto, said before the report. ``We are in a mild recession. We expect to see a few months of declines that are worse than this.''
Factory payrolls fell 26,000 after declining 49,000 in April. Economists had forecast a drop of 40,000. The decrease included a drop of 7,500 computer and electronics manufacturing jobs. Auto factories added 4,400 workers.
General Motors Corp. has said 19,000 workers, or about 26 percent of its union workforce, accepted the latest offer to leave, and most of those will stop working by July 1. Ford Motor Co. will trim salaried-employee costs by 15 percent by eliminating contract workers and not filling open jobs.
The protracted housing slump and resulting collapse in subprime lending were also reflected in today's report. Payrolls at builders fell 34,000 after decreasing 52,000. Financial firms decreased payrolls by 1,000, after a gain of 1,000 the prior month.
Service Industries
Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, added 8,000 workers after increasing by 72,000 in April. Retail payrolls decreased by 27,100 after a drop of 38,700.
Government payrolls increased by 17,000 after a gain of 12,000, indicating the total decline in private payrolls was 66,000.
The number of Americans receiving jobless benefits surpassed 3.1 million in May for the first time in four years, indicating employees that are being let go are having a more difficult time finding new jobs.
Consumer confidence last month sank to the lowest level in more than 15 years as the employment outlook deteriorated, according to a report from the Conference Board, a New York research group.
``Households continue to face significant headwinds, including falling house prices, a softer job market, tighter credit and higher energy prices,'' Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in a speech this week. The second quarter may be ``relatively weak.''
Overtime Hours
The average work week was unchanged at 33.7 hours and the factory work week also remained unchanged at 41 hours. Overtime decreased to 3.8 hours from 4 hours. That brought the average weekly earnings up by 0.3 percent to $604.58 last month.
Workers' average hourly wages rose by 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $17.94. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 0.2 percent increase from the prior month and a 3.4 percent gain for the 12-month period.
Declines in employment signal consumer spending, which grew in the first quarter at the slowest pace since the 2001 recession, will keep slowing.
``The customer is clearly under pressure when it comes to higher gas and food prices,'' Thomas Schoewe, chief financial officer at Wal-Mart Stores Inc., told reporters yesterday.
Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, and Costco Wholesale Corp. yesterday said sales climbed more than analysts estimated as shoppers sought discounts to offset soaring food and fuel bills.
UAL Cuts
The surge in energy costs is also hurting service providers. Continental Airlines Inc. and UAL Corp.'s United Airlines this week announced they will cut additional jobs and shrink their jet fleet to trim expenses.
``The airline industry is in a crisis,'' Continental's Chief Executive Officer Larry Kellner and President Jeff Smisek said in a memo to the Houston-based carrier's employees. The reductions ``are necessary to secure our future.''
What I am pretty sure of is that prices will not go down the next two years, i.e. 2009 and 2010 (after that, what happens is anyone's guess).
The reason is simple. When everyone thinks it will go down, then it will not. Whatever a lot of people think will not happen.
Back in 2007 when the market was booming, everyone I met was telling me that the market would "definitely" go up for another year. They were betting 100% that 2008 would be another bull run year for properties. They even recommend "Buy in 2008 and dump in 2009, just before the Integrated Resorts open".
Everyone was thinking that everyone else was stupid except themselves. Everyone was thinking they would dump the properties before other people dump. So if they "recommend" everyone else to dump in 2009, but secretly planned to dump their properties earlier than that.
So that's what happened to 2008.
Now everyone is saying that "wait one to two years" for the market to come down, then buy to ride the next cycle.
They think the sellers are so stupid to let them "ride the next cycle"? Why don't the sellers "ride the next cycle" themselves?
The good thing about the sub-prime is that it allows the market to take a rest. Property markets typically go in multi-year cycles lasting 5 to 7 years. The bull run that started in 2007 was temporarily halted in its infancy by the sub-prime crisis.
This stopped all the en-blocs and prevented an oversupply of the market. Otherwise if the en-blocs continue unabated, we could end up with an oversupply that can't be managed and a crash in the future that's a thousand times more serious.
What I am pretty sure of is that prices will not go down the next two years, i.e. 2009 and 2010 (after that, what happens is anyone's guess).
The reason is simple. When everyone thinks it will go down, then it will not. Whatever a lot of people think will not happen.
They think the sellers are so stupid to let them "ride the next cycle"? Why don't the sellers "ride the next cycle" themselves?
The good thing about the sub-prime is that it allows the market to take a rest. Property markets typically go in multi-year cycles lasting 5 to 7 years. The bull run that started in 2007 was temporarily halted in its infancy by the sub-prime crisis.
This stopped all the en-blocs and prevented an oversupply of the market. Otherwise if the en-blocs continue unabated, we could end up with an oversupply that can't be managed and a crash in the future that's a thousand times more serious.
Agree with you 100%. Of course the market won't tank! If I was the seller, I will hold the next 1 to 2 years then sell. By then, another phase of enbloc, more people chasing. Why sell now? Only the stupid, and the desperate will. Sellers are now more concerned with price increase of chicken and ducks from Malaysia tomorow, no time to worry about market tanking. It will not tank!
What I am pretty sure of is that prices will not go down the next two years, i.e. 2009 and 2010 (after that, what happens is anyone's guess).
The reason is simple. When everyone thinks it will go down, then it will not. Whatever a lot of people think will not happen.
Back in 2007 when the market was booming, everyone I met was telling me that the market would "definitely" go up for another year. They were betting 100% that 2008 would be another bull run year for properties. They even recommend "Buy in 2008 and dump in 2009, just before the Integrated Resorts open".
Everyone was thinking that everyone else was stupid except themselves. Everyone was thinking they would dump the properties before other people dump. So if they "recommend" everyone else to dump in 2009, but secretly planned to dump their properties earlier than that.
So that's what happened to 2008.
Now everyone is saying that "wait one to two years" for the market to come down, then buy to ride the next cycle.
They think the sellers are so stupid to let them "ride the next cycle"? Why don't the sellers "ride the next cycle" themselves?
The good thing about the sub-prime is that it allows the market to take a rest. Property markets typically go in multi-year cycles lasting 5 to 7 years. The bull run that started in 2007 was temporarily halted in its infancy by the sub-prime crisis.
This stopped all the en-blocs and prevented an oversupply of the market. Otherwise if the en-blocs continue unabated, we could end up with an oversupply that can't be managed and a crash in the future that's a thousand times more serious.
well said, it's fact of life.
everyone follow blindly & they think they are the smartest.
Everything from Malaysia is going to cost 10-30% more, including imported building materials. Haha... property prices will rise by 10-30%..! How to drop?
NO ONE HAS SEEN WHAT IS COMING. IT WILL SHOW UP SOON AND EVERYTHING TANKS 50% ATLEAST.
broadmind3
07-06-08, 01:24
NO ONE HAS SEEN WHAT IS COMING. IT WILL SHOW UP SOON AND EVERYTHING TANKS 50% ATLEAST.
Do some analysis of the a few key statistics to consider before investing, and take out the greed and fear:
1. Affordability (income relative to prices) - if this is an increasing trend, then it is worthwhile to invest as it will mean more people can afford to pay higher prices
2. Rental vacancies - if this is a decreasing trend, then it is worthwhile to invest as it will mean that rental yield will improve
3. General economic outlook (e.g. forecast GDP growth), which will affect item 1 (affordability) and 2 (rental vacancies)
4. Supply in the pipeline, which will affect item 2 (vacancies)
I haven't done the analysis myself, but I suspect the expected higher inflation and lower GDP growth will reduce affordability, and so property prices will be depressed. I can't see any factors that will drive prices higher and a lot depends on how the Singapore economy fares in
the coming months.
Do some analysis of the a few key statistics to consider before investing, and take out the greed and fear:
1. Affordability (income relative to prices) - if this is an increasing trend, then it is worthwhile to invest as it will mean more people can afford to pay higher prices
2. Rental vacancies - if this is a decreasing trend, then it is worthwhile to invest as it will mean that rental yield will improve
3. General economic outlook (e.g. forecast GDP growth), which will affect item 1 (affordability) and 2 (rental vacancies)
4. Supply in the pipeline, which will affect item 2 (vacancies)
I haven't done the analysis myself, but I suspect the expected higher inflation and lower GDP growth will reduce affordability, and so property prices will be depressed. I can't see any factors that will drive prices higher and a lot depends on how the Singapore economy fares in
the coming months.
I can do one analysis for you immediately (others will take time). This is my favourite - Good Class Bungalows - which I cannot afford anyway but dreaming everyday. :p
1. Affordability has increased tremendously for those people who can afford it. A GCB in the Cluny Hill area cost around $4 million in 1985 when top lawyers and CEOs in Singapore earned around $800,000 per year (5 years' income); today a GCB costs around $15 million when top lawyers and CEOs in Singapore earn around $4 million per year (only 3.75 years' income). Conclusion: GCBs are getting more and more affordable every year. :scared-5:
2. Rental Vacancies - negligible. GCBs are usually owner occupied. There are only 1000 GCB's in Singapore but more than 2,000 people earning more than $1 million per year. The few that are for rental will be quickly snapped by ambassadors and foreign CEOs who need to throw grand parties with a big pool as a backdrop, so that their children can fall and frolic in the pool after the party when they are drunk. You can't do that in a condo else the security guard will chase you out.
3. General economic backdrop - doesn't matter. Rain or shine, the CEOs continue to make tonnes of money. I never see CEO pay go down before. At most they stagnate for one or two years in the worst economic crises. Only the little people will suffer. Lawyers become even busier if companies collapse because plenty of law suits to file and corporate work to liquidate them.
4. Supply in the pipeline - None.
Conclusion: Price of GCBs will only continue to go up and up and up ... :2cents:
Ohhhh its coming!
07-06-08, 21:10
Australian House Prices Fall Most in Five Years on Higher Rates
By Jacob Greber
June 7 (Bloomberg) -- Australian house prices fell in the first quarter by the most in five years after the central bank raised interest rates at the fastest pace in more than a decade.
The median price for houses fell to A$458,488 ($439,644) in the March quarter, down 2.7 percent from the previous three months, the Real Estate Institute of Australia and Mortgage Choice Ltd. said. Apartments also fell 2.7 percent to A$355,297.
Falling residential prices support the central bank's view that Australia's $1 trillion economy will slow this year, helping ease the fastest inflation in 17 years. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens, who left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at a 12-year high this week, signaled he is prepared to boost borrowing costs again if growth rebounds. He raised the rate in March for the fourth time since August.
``Unfortunately, investors, as well as owner-occupiers, are showing reduced levels of confidence,'' REIA President Noel Dyett said in a statement. ``The fall in median prices isn't surprising, following recent interest rate rises.''
Households, already grappling with higher gasoline and food costs, also were buffeted this year as commercial lenders increased mortgage rates by more than the central bank did.
The nation's five largest lenders, led by Commonwealth Bank of Australia, have added an average of almost 90 basis points to home-loan interest rates this year to cover higher funding costs caused by the squeeze on credit markets. The central bank increased by only 50 basis points in that time.
Mortgage Costs
The jump in borrowing costs eroded consumer confidence close to the lowest level in 15 years and triggered falling retail sales in three of the first four months of this year.
Clive Peeters Ltd., an Australian electrical appliances retailer, said this week the market slowed ``slightly'' in March, deteriorated sharply in April and continued to cool in May.
The Reserve Bank's policy makers left the overnight cash rate target unchanged this week at 7.25 percent. Investors expect the bank to increase the benchmark lending rate by at least a quarter-point in the next 12 months, according to a Credit Suisse Group index based on trading in interest-rate swaps.
About 90 percent of Australian mortgages are taken out on a floating rate, which moves with the central bank's benchmark. A quarter-point increase adds about A$42 ($40) a month to the average A$250,000 home loan, according to the Housing Industry Association.
Economic Growth
Home prices may slide further this year after housing affordability deteriorated in the first quarter to the worst on record, according to a separate report by the real estate institute published May 28.
The proportion of a family's income needed to repay an average home loan climbed to 38 percent in the March quarter from 37.4 percent in the December quarter. That's the highest since the institute began measuring affordability 22 years ago.
House prices slumped the most in Melbourne, falling 8.4 percent in the first quarter, today's report showed. Canberra slid 6.8 percent, Perth dropped 2.5 percent and Sydney shed 0.3 percent. The value of homes gained in Hobart and Adelaide.
``The fall in prices is being offset by the increased cost of financing home loans, so we have yet to see any real impact on housing affordability,'' Dyett said.
Do some analysis of the a few key statistics to consider before investing, and take out the greed and fear:
1. Affordability (income relative to prices) - if this is an increasing trend, then it is worthwhile to invest as it will mean more people can afford to pay higher prices
2. Rental vacancies - if this is a decreasing trend, then it is worthwhile to invest as it will mean that rental yield will improve
3. General economic outlook (e.g. forecast GDP growth), which will affect item 1 (affordability) and 2 (rental vacancies)
4. Supply in the pipeline, which will affect item 2 (vacancies)
I haven't done the analysis myself, but I suspect the expected higher inflation and lower GDP growth will reduce affordability, and so property prices will be depressed. I can't see any factors that will drive prices higher and a lot depends on how the Singapore economy fares in
the coming months.
Here is another analysis - HDB Flats.
1. Affordability has decreased due to the en bloc downgraders bidding up the price to the extent that young couples now find it hard to come up with cash top ups.
2. Rental Vacancies - not significant. HDBs are mostly owner occupied. Those that are rented out command good rental. The rental market for HDB is now very strong. In fact, newspaper reported recently people illegally subletting flats rented directly from HDB (which are not allowed to be rented out again) to take advantage of the boom.
3. General economic backdrop - the financial turbulence from the US does not impact on the HDB heartland directly. Many HDB folks work in government service anyway, which is shielded from economic crisis.
4. Supply in the pipeline - supply is tightly controlled by the Government. After having learnt the lesson in the last economic crisis when the Government overbuilt and ended up with surplus flats, nowadays the Government only build-to-order (BTO) so supply is very tight to the extent that young couples have to stay with in-laws for a few years before getting a new flat.
Conclusion: Price of HDB unlikely to go down. However, it will not go up much either because the Government needs to ensure affordability. It is a safe bet. :2cents:
Unregisteredxx
09-06-08, 15:34
So please buy HDB? Poor newcomers, the prices chased up by the rich. Rentals of course will stay strong. All these foreign workers earn so little how to afford private housing? So got moneeee, buy HDBeee.
Unreg¡stered
09-06-08, 15:47
Australian House Prices Fall Most in Five Years on Higher Rates
By Jacob Greber
June 7 (Bloomberg) -- Australian[b] house prices fell in the first quarter by the most in five years after the central bank raised interest rates at the fastest pace in more than a decade.
........................
``The fall in prices is being offset by the increased cost of financing home loans, so we have yet to see any real impact on housing affordability,'' Dyett said.
Stupid Aussie thrash dog, fúck off with your Aussie craps! This is CONDOsingapore.com.
Unregistered_4
10-06-08, 11:19
Stupid Aussie thrash dog, fúck off with your Aussie craps! This is CONDOsingapore.com.
ALREADY CAN SEE THE FRUSTRATION. PRAY THAT YOU STILL ESCAPE WITH YOUR ASS INTACT AND NOT BURNED OR FRIED. HAHAHAHA.
Do some analysis of the a few key statistics to consider before investing, and take out the greed and fear:
1. Affordability (income relative to prices) - if this is an increasing trend, then it is worthwhile to invest as it will mean more people can afford to pay higher prices
2. Rental vacancies - if this is a decreasing trend, then it is worthwhile to invest as it will mean that rental yield will improve
3. General economic outlook (e.g. forecast GDP growth), which will affect item 1 (affordability) and 2 (rental vacancies)
4. Supply in the pipeline, which will affect item 2 (vacancies)
I haven't done the analysis myself, but I suspect the expected higher inflation and lower GDP growth will reduce affordability, and so property prices will be depressed. I can't see any factors that will drive prices higher and a lot depends on how the Singapore economy fares in
the coming months.
Here is another analysis ...
* Disclaimer: This one I have vested interests so my analysis may be biased.
Freehold Landed Properties other than Good Class Bungalows
1. Affordability - not much change . No doubt the price of landed houses has gone up, tracking the broader market, but so has the income of the prospective buyers of such properties, who happen to be on the "right" side of the widening income gap.
2. Rental Vacancies - not significant. Landed properties are usually owner-occupied. Anyway, most people buy landed properties for investing in the "scarcity value of land" rather than for rental income. It's like collecting Picasso or Da Vinci artworks - you don't ask how much "rental" or "interests" you are paid for holding on to the painting. You just hold on to it until you need money - or rather your grandchildren need money because they have squandered away all the family wealth - then sell it.
3. General economic backdrop - Landed houses are mostly owned by Singaporeans/PRs so they are more immune to global economic crises and the caprice of foreign investors. People who buy landed houses usually hold senior positions such as directors of government departments, school principals, professionals such as doctors/ lawyers/ accountants and owners of local businesses which are quite recession-proof.
4. Supply in the pipeline - Very little to almost Nil. The only landed sites ever released by the Government are 99-year leasehold sites that are very very far away from town, like Sembawang or Jurong West, which are extremely unattractive. In fact the stock of landed houses is diminishing over the years as more landed houses are torn down to turn into condominiums, but never the other way round.
Conclusion: Price of freehold landed houses will remain firm. In fact, since the start of the sub-prime crisis, my condo's price has come down about 5% but my landed house has gone up about 5%, based on transactions around the same area.
Here is another analysis - HDB Flats.
1. Affordability has decreased due to the en bloc downgraders bidding up the price to the extent that young couples now find it hard to come up with cash top ups.
2. Rental Vacancies - not significant. HDBs are mostly owner occupied. Those that are rented out command good rental. The rental market for HDB is now very strong. In fact, newspaper reported recently people illegally subletting flats rented directly from HDB (which are not allowed to be rented out again) to take advantage of the boom.
3. General economic backdrop - the financial turbulence from the US does not impact on the HDB heartland directly. Many HDB folks work in government service anyway, which is shielded from economic crisis.
4. Supply in the pipeline - supply is tightly controlled by the Government. After having learnt the lesson in the last economic crisis when the Government overbuilt and ended up with surplus flats, nowadays the Government only build-to-order (BTO) so supply is very tight to the extent that young couples have to stay with in-laws for a few years before getting a new flat.
Conclusion: Price of HDB unlikely to go down. However, it will not go up much either because the Government needs to ensure affordability. It is a safe bet. :2cents:
Refer to my analysis of HDB flats above.
Looks like my analysis is pretty accurate ... :ashamed1:
The Business Times
Published June 11, 2008
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/media/image/launched/2008-06-11/BT_IMAGES_EYHDB10.jpg (http://javascript<b></b>:openwindow('/local/picturepopup/0,4661,105890-260000,00.html?');)
Mr Mah: For new flats, higher costs will probably feed through indirectly as market price of flats goes up
Speaking to the media at HDB yesterday, National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said that 'construction costs have gone up significantly both for the building of private as well as public housing'. According to him, construction costs may have risen 20 to 30 per cent in general.
Asked how much of the increase in construction costs would go to buyers, he said that 'for new flats, it should not feed directly through to the buyers, but it will probably feed through indirectly as the market price of flats goes up'.
Mr Mah also expects demand for HDB flats to strengthen if Singapore's population grows as it has over the last few years. 'We are monitoring the situation, and as the demand grows, we are also increasing the supply.'
He pointed out, however, that 'we must also always be careful that we do not overbuild.'
Unreg¡stered
11-06-08, 09:47
ALREADY CAN SEE THE FRUSTRATION. PRAY THAT YOU STILL ESCAPE WITH YOUR ASS INTACT AND NOT BURNED OR FRIED. HAHAHAHA.
I have no interest in condos. I am here to fúck Aussie Thrash Dog barking in another country's forum. Start praying Aussie Thrash Dog.
read the actual reports
11-06-08, 18:18
Credit Suisse
http://www.remisiers.org/research//SporeProperty3Jun08.pdf
Goldman Sachs
http://www.remisiers.org/research//document.pdf&st=1.pdf
Unregisturd
11-06-08, 18:18
高盛分析师调低评级 房地产股普遍下滑
（2008-06-11）
● 李韵琳
过去半年来苦等本地房地产市场放晴的发展商，原以为有中国和越南房地产市场做后盾，但这两个地区的房市也转淡，前景在通货膨胀和贷款紧缩的压力下更是一片茫然。
在海内外不利市道的双重打击下，高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师昨天将本地房地产业的评级从“买入”调低至“持守”，导致房地产股在昨天的交易中普遍下滑，三大主要发展商的股价更跌至两个多月来的低点。
分析师也把6个在新中越三地拥有项目的发展商，即嘉德置地(CapitaLand)、城市发展(CDL)、吉宝置业(Keppel Land)、国浩置地(GuocoLand)和长春产业(Allgreen Properties)的目标价位下调12％至32％，2010年的每股盈利也平均调低了7％。
分析师预计，本地房地产价格将在今年持续趋软，高档私宅价格将下跌10％，大众化私宅价格也可能下滑5％，并在明年进一步退低。
“下跌势头将由高档房地产带头，进而蔓延到大众市场。我们相信中档和大众市场的购买力将受通货膨胀以及环球经济前景不明朗因素影响。此外，一些财力较弱的发展商将被迫‘屈服’，以较低的价格推出新项目，而在延迟付款计划(Deferred Payment Scheme)下购买房子的一些投资者，也可能在项目于2009或2010年完工前抛售。”
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