View Full Version : Hong kong introduce 15% stamp duty
Those invested in hong kong property prepare for drop.
http://m.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/economy/article/2043304/new-hong-kong-home-sale-measures-dampen-enthusiasm-tseung?utm_content=bufferc0b07&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
When you talk to Chinese that carry a bag of cash, what is 15%?
whenever more places start protecting themselves from hot money flowing in, international investors may start realizing SG's 15% ABSD is not too much liao, maybe.
SG need raise ABSD to 25% to stop them migrating over! lol
Don't need to raise also property prices already dropping every quarter...........
Property price sure crash within next few years!
Those who think that government can push up property prices just like they push down property prices MUST have been day-dreaming (without even looking back at history)...........
Do they sincerely believe "this time it will be different" despite the past history of the government being hopelessly unable to do anything effective to stop property price decline when property price crash?
SG need raise ABSD to 25% to stop them migrating over! lol
You are right. This has already been the longest stretch of downturn in history.
It's overdue for an upturn or at worst a flat trend.
History never lies.
Don't need to raise also property prices already dropping every quarter...........
Property price sure crash within next few years!
Those who think that government can push up property prices just like they push down property prices MUST have been day-dreaming (without even looking back at history)...........
Do they sincerely believe "this time it will be different" despite the past history of the government being hopelessly unable to do anything effective to stop property price decline when property price crash?
You said: "It's overdue for an upturn or at worst a flat trend"?
Ha ha ha!
What Singapore property market is suffering now is a slow death, which is policy induced because of property cooling measures, and now further complicated by slowing economy!
History from 1998-2005 tells us that property market can stay in dormant after crashing for >7 long years! However, 1998-2005 is different because at that time Government had introduced "property heating measures", and it still takes >7 long years!
This property market price slow death is due to government policy induced property cooling measures, may be the price upturn you are looking for may take 7 long years after government introduce "property heating measures"? When will that happen? May be 2020? So upturn can wait till 2027? :hopelessness:
You are right. This has already been the longest stretch of downturn in history.
It's overdue for an upturn or at worst a flat trend.
History never lies.
what has been written in this blog coincidentally is similar to my thinking:
What I think about the Singapore Property Market in 2016 (http://tzlee.com/blog/2016/04/what-i-think-about-the-singapore-property-market-in-2016/)
......................
Here’s what I think of the Singapore property market in 2016 (and beyond). I’ve just sold my HDB and am renting temporarily waiting on the side to jump in. If you’d like me to summarise in one sentence, I think the market has not softened enough. At the moment only the super luxury properties in Core Central Region (CCR) ~$5m and above are feeling the pinch. There are also some condominiums in Rest of Central Region (RCR) with prices above $2m that are feeling some pressure because at $2m the buyer pool starts shrinking. However, anything below $2m is still quite resilient because many owners are still holding on to their prices with hope that the cooling measures may be relaxed soon.
......................
For condos, expect to see drop starting in 2018 and hitting hard in 2021
Similar to HDBs, I think 2021 will be a big bloodbath. Why? Seller stamp duty (SSD) takes 3 years to taper off, so many newer projects that TOPed within these few years would have been free of SSD by ~2018 and the would be a flood of condos on resale. Then, as HDB MOPs are fulfilled in 2021, thousands of properties would be up for resale or rental. The HDB sales and rental competes directly with condos for the PR/foreign buyers/tenants.
......................
What about landed properties?
In general, freehold landed properties will still hold good value as the number of land plots are truly limited. It has not much direct competition from HDB or Condos as people buying landed are seeking different lifestyles and priorities. Landed properties generally do not generate good rental yield. Also note that only Singaporeans can buy landed; PRs can apply with Singapore Land Authority (SLA) but I heard that it can be difficult to obtain approval. The downside to landed property is low liquidity as the buyer pool is smaller. If you decide to plonk all your life savings into a landed property, be sure you can afford to hold it.
99 year landed properties will generally remain stagnant unless the location is good, simply because it does not provide better rental yield than condos in general. It is OK to buy for own stay and house multiple generations under one roof, but I personally would avoid it as an investment vehicle.
You said: "It's overdue for an upturn or at worst a flat trend"?
Ha ha ha!
What Singapore property market is suffering now is a slow death, which is policy induced because of property cooling measures, and now further complicated by slowing economy!
History from 1998-2005 tells us that property market can stay in dormant after crashing for >7 long years! However, 1998-2005 is different because at that time Government had introduced "property heating measures", and it still takes >7 long years!
This property market price slow death is due to government policy induced property cooling measures, may be the price upturn you are looking for may take 7 long years after government introduce "property heating measures"? When will that happen? May be 2020? So upturn can wait till 2027? :hopelessness:
Stay dormant means don't drop further. Don't drop further means nothing to crash.
As long as yield still above 3%, holders will hold.
You said: "It's overdue for an upturn or at worst a flat trend"?
Ha ha ha!
What Singapore property market is suffering now is a slow death, which is policy induced because of property cooling measures, and now further complicated by slowing economy!
History from 1998-2005 tells us that property market can stay in dormant after crashing for >7 long years! However, 1998-2005 is different because at that time Government had introduced "property heating measures", and it still takes >7 long years!
This property market price slow death is due to government policy induced property cooling measures, may be the price upturn you are looking for may take 7 long years after government introduce "property heating measures"? When will that happen? May be 2020? So upturn can wait till 2027? :hopelessness:
He actually does not know what he is talking about and you say it is similar to yours.
Most people by the time TOP already complete SSD of 3 years, and one more year to be clear of SSD. Right now is the hardest part where most have cleared SSD period and qualify to sell, and some choose to cash out.
After this period, TOP numbers will keep dwindling.
what has been written in this blog coincidentally is similar to my thinking:
What I think about the Singapore Property Market in 2016 (http://tzlee.com/blog/2016/04/what-i-think-about-the-singapore-property-market-in-2016/)
......................
Here’s what I think of the Singapore property market in 2016 (and beyond). I’ve just sold my HDB and am renting temporarily waiting on the side to jump in. If you’d like me to summarise in one sentence, I think the market has not softened enough. At the moment only the super luxury properties in Core Central Region (CCR) ~$5m and above are feeling the pinch. There are also some condominiums in Rest of Central Region (RCR) with prices above $2m that are feeling some pressure because at $2m the buyer pool starts shrinking. However, anything below $2m is still quite resilient because many owners are still holding on to their prices with hope that the cooling measures may be relaxed soon.
......................
For condos, expect to see drop starting in 2018 and hitting hard in 2021
Similar to HDBs, I think 2021 will be a big bloodbath. Why? Seller stamp duty (SSD) takes 3 years to taper off, so many newer projects that TOPed within these few years would have been free of SSD by ~2018 and the would be a flood of condos on resale. Then, as HDB MOPs are fulfilled in 2021, thousands of properties would be up for resale or rental. The HDB sales and rental competes directly with condos for the PR/foreign buyers/tenants.
......................
What about landed properties?
In general, freehold landed properties will still hold good value as the number of land plots are truly limited. It has not much direct competition from HDB or Condos as people buying landed are seeking different lifestyles and priorities. Landed properties generally do not generate good rental yield. Also note that only Singaporeans can buy landed; PRs can apply with Singapore Land Authority (SLA) but I heard that it can be difficult to obtain approval. The downside to landed property is low liquidity as the buyer pool is smaller. If you decide to plonk all your life savings into a landed property, be sure you can afford to hold it.
99 year landed properties will generally remain stagnant unless the location is good, simply because it does not provide better rental yield than condos in general. It is OK to buy for own stay and house multiple generations under one roof, but I personally would avoid it as an investment vehicle.
Pre-2008 crisis America tell the World cannot print money.
After 2008 Money is not the same anymore.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/13/12-trillion-of-qe-and-the-lowest-rates-in-5000-years-for-this.html
If you don't know what is money printing, the next bull run will be even worsted them before.
12,000,000,000,000
How much more you want the property price to crash when from 1997 peak to 2005 low some of the property prices already drop by >50%? :eagerness:
In 2005 low, you can buy OCR private condos at about $400+ psf! (and now they are like >$1200 psf)! Mine you, that is just 11 years ago and a price increase of almost 200%! :tongue-new:
Stay dormant means don't drop further. Don't drop further means nothing to crash.
As long as yield still above 3%, holders will hold.
Don't forget that period the huge majority of drop from 97-05 was induced by HDB price drops. HDB as a whole never changed index at all in recent years...
And again, it was not a continuous drop over 8 years. 99 to 01 actually saw a rise of about 40%.
How much more you want the property price to crash when from 1997 peak to 2005 low some of the property prices already drop by >50%? :eagerness:
In 2005 low, you can buy OCR private condos at about $400+ psf! (and now they are like >$1200 psf)! Mine you, that is just 11 years ago and a price increase of almost 200%! :tongue-new:
Irregardless, it is a FACT that from 1997 peak to 2005 lows, price of private condos especially OCR drop like >50% over that period (despite government introduced and allowed "property HEATING measures")........... :victorious:
Will we see similar drop of >50% in next few years for private condos?
Anyway, again it is a FACT that OCR private condos prices have been suffering a slow death, i.e. dropping bit by bit every quarter (and this is government policy induced, not even due to economic recession yet)....... :redface-new:
So when real economic recession hits (just like 1997-2005), and add on to policy-induced price drops, I won't be surprise to see price drop of >50% for OCR private condos (from current price)..........
Based on above, we can forget about effect of HDB prices on private condo prices (since government policy induced price drops due to property cooling measures will cause OCR private condo prices to decouple from HDB flat prices)..................
Don't forget that period the huge majority of drop from 97-05 was induced by HDB price drops. HDB as a whole never changed index at all in recent years...
And again, it was not a continuous drop over 8 years. 99 to 01 actually saw a rise of about 40%.
The rear view mirror is useful, but if you continue to drive forward using ONLY the rear view mirror, you are going to miss all the fruitful turns. It is also highly dangerous.
Have a good day Teddybear.
Irregardless, it is a FACT that from 1997 peak to 2005 lows, price of private condos especially OCR drop like >50% over that period (despite government introduced and allowed "property HEATING measures")........... :victorious:
Will we see similar drop of >50% in next few years for private condos?
Anyway, again it is a FACT that OCR private condos prices have been suffering a slow death, i.e. dropping bit by bit every quarter (and this is government policy induced, not even due to economic recession yet)....... :redface-new:
So when real economic recession hits (just like 1997-2005), and add on to policy-induced price drops, I won't be surprise to see price drop of >50% for OCR private condos (from current price)..........
Based on above, we can forget about effect of HDB prices on private condo prices (since government policy induced price drops due to property cooling measures will cause OCR private condo prices to decouple from HDB flat prices)..................
Can never understand why people cannot see the number of zero printed 12,000,000,000,00
4 years same property same location same material add 1,000,000 six zero.
Can never understand why people cannot see the number of zero printed 12,000,000,000,00
4 years same property same location same material add 1,000,000 six zero.
Not exactly true. Quality lower, poorer materials, more congested design and take away some features, location improves due to new infrastructure.
But also more units, but of course not as much more as printing allowed.
PropVestor
08-11-16, 12:06
Short, mid, long term perspectives. Quantitative easing is a monetary policy depending who is at the helm. Hope its not Trump land tomorrow, yikes.
My 2 cents worth of analysis.
Short term (˜5 years), property will moderately remain flat due to over supply and CMs are here to stay or soften ever so slightly. Weak global demands. Low migration figures to boot. HK stamp duties are similar to ours.
Mid term (5 to 15 years)
CMs will be adjusted according to sentiments and Population White Paper projections for 2030 will come into place. If based on current supply trends, there should be enough housing for new migrants and locals combined. There will be moderated growth but still growth in the property market. If I can tell what is the growth factor, I will not be posting here.
Long term (15 to 30 years)
I don't think I can see that far. I know this little red dot will be pretty well connected, highly densed with new satelite towns, 1 hour to KL trains, driverless cars in the streets etc. If Singapore do not progress and change with the fast changing world, we will not make it. Lets hope new developments like WaterFront City will spike demands for Singapore as an attractive place to live. Its anyone's guess. One thing for sure, Singaporeans will be minority still. The foreign base will determine to a larger effect on how property prices will be like than now? I think so.
PropVestor
Short, mid, long term perspectives. Quantitative easing is a monetary policy depending who is at the helm. Hope its not Trump land tomorrow, yikes.
My 2 cents worth of analysis.
Short term (˜5 years), property will moderately remain flat due to over supply and CMs are here to stay or soften ever so slightly. Weak global demands. Low migration figures to boot. HK stamp duties are similar to ours.
Mid term (5 to 15 years)
CMs will be adjusted according to sentiments and Population White Paper projections for 2030 will come into place. If based on current supply trends, there should be enough housing for new migrants and locals combined. There will be moderated growth but still growth in the property market. If I can tell what is the growth factor, I will not be posting here.
Long term (15 to 30 years)
I don't think I can see that far. I know this little red dot will be pretty well connected, highly densed with new satelite towns, 1 hour to KL trains, driverless cars in the streets etc. If Singapore do not progress and change with the fast changing world, we will not make it. Lets hope new developments like WaterFront City will spike demands for Singapore as an attractive place to live. Its anyone's guess. One thing for sure, Singaporeans will be minority still. The foreign base will determine to a larger effect on how property prices will be like than now? I think so.
PropVestor
I think looking at property investment based on price growth is no longer relevant. The people that is buying and keeping their property are doing so based on comfort, Convenient and wealth preservation.
Less desirable properties are being sold at lower prices, while good one are kept or sold only at good price. Timing the market is a really bad idea. If u want to wait for durian to drop, chances are u only get rotten durian.
bargain hunter
09-11-16, 06:10
Adjoining luxury flats in Hong Kong sell for a record HK$104,803 per sq ft, the highest in Asia
Three days after the Hong Kong government raised the residential stamp duty to 15 per cent to rein in runaway home prices, adjoining luxury flats on The Peak sold for HK$104,803 per square foot, the most expensive for an apartment in Asia in terms of per square foot cost.
The deal comprises two adjoining units, Flats 16A and 16B with a combined saleable area of 8,702 square feet, at luxury development Mount Nicholson, which sold for HK$912 million on November 8, according to a Hong Kong government website on Tuesday. The property comes with three car parking spaces.
The price tag breaks the previous record of HK$103,762 per sq ft set by 39 Conduit Road in Mid-Levels in 2015.
“Rich families are most concerned about the prestigious location and quality of the project, not the stamp duty,” said Thomas Lam, head of valuation and consultancy at Knight Frank.
“Investors buying small to medium sized units will be hit hardest by the latest property tax, but not the richest [investors],” said Lam.
The transaction come three days after the stamp duty was raised to 15 per cent in a bid to curb investment demand. Non property owners are exempted.
On Tuesday, Wheelock announced it had sold via tender four out of 10 units at its joint venture Mount Nicholson development for a total of HK$1.5 billion. The tender closed on Monday.
Wheelock said a group of buyers bought three units – the 4,566-sq-ft 7A and 8,702 sq ft at 16A and 16B – for a combined HK$1.2 billion, while another purchaser paid HK$316.53 million for the 4,289 sq ft unit at 8B.
Units 16A and 16B were sold under one agreement, according to the government website, which means the Inland Revenue Department will regard the properties as a single transaction.
The deal raised eyebrows over whether the buyer would be charged 15 per cent stamp duty, equivalent to HK$136.8 million, under the new rule.
Stewart Leung Chi-kin, chairman of Wheelock Properties, was quoted by Apple Daily saying; “The buyers of the four units are end users and they bought with individual names. I understand the buyers who paid HK$1.2 billion are first time buyers.”
“Under the current cooling measures, there are no speculators at all,” said Leung. “All of them are first time buyers.”
Assuming the buyers of Units 16A and 16B, which have a combined eight bedrooms and 12 toilets, are first time purchasers, they will be charged 4.25 per cent stamp duty, or HK$38.76 million.
Sammy Po, chief executive at Midland Realty’s residential department, believe the units were bought by a family members.
“They may be the children of super rich families who are do not own any apartments,” he said
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