Cross Island Line (CRL) Stations

[richwang]

It is a known fact that properties next to MRT stations command higher prices. But in terms of value to investors, it seems new projects fall into the following 3 categories:

1) overpriced near existing stations;
2) some upside near uncompleted stations;
3) good value near unannounced stations.

So let's figure out the exact locations of Cross Island Line (CRL) stations before the official announcement comes.

https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/ltaweb/en/public-transport/projects/cross-island-line.html

[richwang]

Let's start with the easy ones:

Changi Airport
Pasir Ris
Hougang
Ang Mo Kio
Clementi

[richwang]

And some speculations on Google map
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1T6vDUwTfIVtPSjpmH1WgoROc4RE&hl=en

[bargain hunter]

but its still a loooooooooooong time to go. completion of these stations are at least 8 to 10 years away?

[richwang]

If you look at how Calrose has benefited from Lentor in Thomason Line, it is never too early to buy - provided you can figure out the exact station locations.

[richwang]

By the way, the Google map stations are clearly inaccurate. So we can add value.

[Kelonguni]

I did notice the NS EW line stations are nearer HDB but Circle and DTL nearer to private estates.

But quite difficult to spot exact location...

[bargain hunter]

If you look at how Calrose has benefited from Lentor in Thomason Line, it is never too early to buy - provided you can figure out the exact station locations.

but they have not benefited yet. they will need to bear with 5 to 6 more years of construction.

[Arcachon]

What will you get when the value of the land your HDB build on appreciating compare to the value of the Private apartment.

[august]

It is a known fact that properties next to MRT stations command higher prices. But in terms of value to investors, it seems new projects fall into the following 3 categories:

1) overpriced near existing stations;
2) some upside near uncompleted stations;
3) good value near unannounced stations.

So let's figure out the exact locations of Cross Island Line (CRL) stations before the official announcement comes.

https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/ltaweb/en/public-transport/projects/cross-island-line.html

The stretch that cuts across the central catchment area is misguided. Permanent environmental destruction aside, its only benefit is just a slightly shorter commuting time between Sin Ming and Bt Timah, as opposed to going around the catchment area. While going around have more benefits - higher ridership, more foot fall to existing urban areas, and of course the proximity to mrt that everyone in these urban areas wants.

[richwang]

but they have not benefited yet. they will need to bear with 5 to 6 more years of construction.

They price has already doubled. So they can choose to sell it the moment the exact station location is announced.

[richwang]

I did notice the NS EW line stations are nearer HDB but Circle and DTL nearer to private estates.

But quite difficult to spot exact location...

Circle line and downtown line are fully underground, so no complaint to be close to private condos.
CRL will likely be fully underground, and yes, the aim of this thread is to spot the exact station locations EARLY.

[richwang]

Apart from the top down approach, I am open for bottom up approach as well. For those who are familiar with certain projects along CRL, we can start speculating / predicting.
How about Batamnia near Clememti?

PS. I am not an agent.

[Kelonguni]

The thing is LTA is very elusive about the precise location typically.

I will prefer to buy farther from MRT for own stay and see if MRT comes to me. If MRT comes so near, I will rent it out and move.

Have no idea why except cars are expensive, but most like to stay near MRT especially tenants.




They price has already doubled. So they can choose to sell it the moment the exact station location is announced.

[Kelonguni]

Is the precise location of West Coast MRT confirmed at somewhere South of Botannia? Or still can vary to its West?

I suppose it will make a difference since the region is lack of MRT? Botannia near everything but road wise it is quite isolated.


Apart from the top down approach, I am open for bottom up approach as well. For those who are familiar with certain projects along CRL, we can start speculating / predicting.
How about Batamnia near Clememti?

PS. I am not an agent.

[bargain hunter]

They price has already doubled. So they can choose to sell it the moment the exact station location is announced.

Calrose's doubling in price was in line with several OCR projects in line with the OCR bull run. I agree that there is some upside due to the mrt but I wouldn't credit the mrt by that much. Calrose was launched in 2005 right at the bottom of the market in the last decade.

[richwang]

Calrose's doubling in price was in line with several OCR projects in line with the OCR bull run. I agree that there is some upside due to the mrt but I wouldn't credit the mrt by that much. Calrose was launched in 2005 right at the bottom of the market in the last decade.
Good point. Since you have lots of data, care to share the historical psf price data of Calrose? We can then compare that with the OCR index data to see how much is potentially contributed by MRT factor.

[bargain hunter]

Good point. Since you have lots of data, care to share the historical psf price data of Calrose? We can then compare that with the OCR index data to see how much is potentially contributed by MRT factor.

i just get from propertycarrots (free). it doesn't really compile an average so i'm not sure how we should compare it. we will also need to use comparable projects which were launched in 2005 (few and far in between back then). Calrose is also freehold so it is supposed to hold its value better compared to 99 year leaseholds if there were any launched then?

[Arcachon]

# Project Name Address Area (sqm) Transacted Price ($) Unit Price (psf) ↓ Sale Date Postal District Tenure Completion Date
67 THE CALROSE 511 Yio Chu Kang Road #01-02 148 1550000 973 14-Apr-11 26 Freehold 2007
273 THE CALROSE 511 Yio Chu Kang Road #01-02 148 941000 591 11-May-06 26 Freehold Uncompleted


http://propertycarrots.com/community/contactimporter/ref/73

[richwang]

Thanks! Very powerful site, not sure how much they will charge us after the 1 year free period.
Back to Calrose, take the popular 115/116 sqm size, we got the following samples (try to choose the middle price when multiple transactions happened):

Year 2016, $1,050 psf
Year 2015, $1,152 psf
Year 2014, $1,276 psf
Year 2013, $1,268 psf (transaction number started to come down)
Year 2012, $1,202 psf
Year 2011, $1,091 psf
Year 2010, $935 psf ($829 - $1,066, too wide price swing, need further study)
Year 2009, $824 psf ($788 - $889)
Year 2008, $832 ($759 - $881)
Year 2007, $784 ($687- $889)
Year 2006, $581 (new sale)
Year 2005, $582 (new sale)

[richwang]

The big price swing happened in Year 2010, let's find out when was the station location became apparent. Was it in Year 2010?
If yes, the MRT factor is about 20% contribution to the price movement.
And Bargain Hunter is right, we cannot credit 100% to MRT factor.

[richwang]

So who will be the next Calrose along CRL, 20% gain is not bad money to hunt ...

[richwang]

How about Grandeur 8 near AMK?
It is now 1 bus stop away from AMK MRT station, but if CRL AMK exact station chooses the big car park near it, Grandeur 8 will be in walking distance from MRT. 20% jump when that news is known to the wider audience.

[Kelonguni]

But if buy and not built in walking distance how?


How about Grandeur 8 near AMK?
It is now 1 bus stop away from AMK MRT station, but if CRL AMK exact station chooses the big car park near it, Grandeur 8 will be in walking distance from MRT. 20% jump when that news is known to the wider audience.

[bargain hunter]

Thanks! Very powerful site, not sure how much they will charge us after the 1 year free period.
Back to Calrose, take the popular 115/116 sqm size, we got the following samples (try to choose the middle price when multiple transactions happened):

Year 2016, $1,050 psf
Year 2015, $1,152 psf
Year 2014, $1,276 psf
Year 2013, $1,268 psf (transaction number started to come down)
Year 2012, $1,202 psf
Year 2011, $1,091 psf
Year 2010, $935 psf ($829 - $1,066, too wide price swing, need further study)
Year 2009, $824 psf ($788 - $889)
Year 2008, $832 ($759 - $881)
Year 2007, $784 ($687- $889)
Year 2006, $581 (new sale)
Year 2005, $582 (new sale)

from 2009 to 2010, 2010 to 2011 and 2011 to 2012, gains >10%.

2009 to 2010 was the mad rebound off the 2009 "great recession". 2010 to 2011 and 2011 to 2012 were OCR bull years which contributed a huge part to the 60% rise in indices (prime started faltering since the jan 2011 measures).

u may want to compare that to other ocr (not those ultimate ulu type). if the gains of 2010 to 2012 is say around 15% (my wild guess is that its more than this) vs the 28.6% then the net outperformance is around 13.6%. for 2nd time buyers, -7% stamp duty, the profits become not so attractive (especially since its a bet). also, with the ABSD now in place, there is no more wild buying, that may also limit the price gains.

[richwang]

Any hint where the Loyang station can be?

Freehold the gale is selling for <1M 3-bedder!

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/20104138/for-sale-the-gale?ref=ls%7Cnormal%7C7%7C1