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vip
29-06-16, 22:18
https://propertysoul.com/2016/06/29/propexit-versus-propremain/

Propexit versus propremain – which side are you on?

June 29, 2016

https://propertysoul.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/exit.jpg

June 23 marks the independence of Britain which has finally voted out of the European Union. Other European countries are pledging to stand behind the EU. But deep down they are probably guessing which country will be the next one out.

Brexit may start a chain reaction that leads to Frexit, Grexit, Luxexit, Spexit and Swexit. Sorry about my spellings but don’t forget we also have Byegium, Czechout, Finish, Goatia, Italeave, Latervia, Oustria, Portugo and Slovakout.

Perhaps only Remania and Iremand will stay.


A dysfunctional EU versus an unprofitable property investment

Nobody said it better than Cambridge University professor Christopher Hill who called the previous European Community back in 1993 a ‘capability–expectations gap’ – a gap between what they said they can do and what they can actually deliver.

Jan Zielonka in his book Is the EU Doomed called the EU an ‘embarrassment’ when the promise of prosperity becomes austerity; when an agreement of integration becomes dysfunction; and when the opportunity to overcome a crisis becomes a wasted crisis.

EU members continue to suffer worsening economy, uncontrolled immigration, loss of national identity and increased terrorist threat.

Properties bought at the peak of the market in the last few years are similar to the situation of the EU now.

There exists a ‘performance–expectations gap’ – a gap between the future prices industry stakeholders predicted and the actual prices turn out to be; or a gap between the rental return agents said owners can get and the actual rent owners are fetching now.

It is a disappointment when an income source becomes a monthly deficit; and when an asset becomes a burden.

The owners continue to suffer worsening market, uncontrolled market supply; financing restrictions and interest hike threat.


Should I hold or sell?

Back in 2011 to 2013, readers of my blog often asked me questions like “Is this a good time to buy?”; “Should I go for HDB, Built-to-Order or EC?”; “What do you think about this new launch?”; or “Project A, B and C, which one is a better investment?”.

These days my mailbox is flooded with messages from people asking very different questions:

– “I bought project xxxxx when it’s launched in 2012. The developer is now offering 15 percent discount. Should I sell now or wait for TOP?”

– “The rental return of my unit is lower than expected. With the risks of falling prices and rising interest rates, should I let go if there is a good offer?”

– The currency has depreciated 25 percent since I bought my property in this foreign market. There are talks about market oversupply and further currency depreciation. Should I hold on or cut loss now?”

I am sure that people asking me these questions are not loyal followers of my blog; otherwise, they wouldn’t have ended up in such a dilemma.

– Why you can’t buy it now (https://propertysoul.com/2012/08/02/why-you-cant-buy-it-now/)

– Is buying properties a saving plan? (https://propertysoul.com/2013/11/12/is-buying-properties-a-saving-plan/)

– The resurrection of property prices (https://propertysoul.com/2014/04/22/the-resurrection-of-property-prices/)

– Tough times ahead for Iskandar and Malaysia properties (https://propertysoul.com/2014/09/26/tough-times-ahead-for-iskandar-and-malaysia-properties/)

If only they have read my blog posts written in the last few years and taken the advice from a fellow property investor. And if they have already made up their mind, why do they come back and ask for advice to exit or remain?


Propexit or Propremain?

Whether you choose to hold your properties and remain in the market, or decide to sell your properties and exit the market, it depends on your financial situation, property portfolio and investment strategy.

If you are overcommitted and do not have much holding power, you fit into the profile of a typical ‘propexiter’. Since you have to deal with your loss making investment sooner or later, before the market goes further south, cut your loss and move on.

If you have bought your properties at good prices and intend to hold them for a long time, keep the faith and optimism to continue as a ‘propremainer’. It takes courage to embrace uncertainty over certainty. Nonetheless, if you have the holding power, you shouldn’t be afraid of being exposed to the unknown future.

If you are still undecided whether to remain or exit, or to enter or wait and see, the last four points below may give you some hints:

1. Before you make any investment, always have an exit strategy in place.

2. The key to an elegant exit is advance planning.

3. In times of uncertainty, there is no safe haven. Cash is king provided that you are holding the right currencies.

4. The EU may be doomed, but Europe is not. Properties bought at the last peak may be doomed, but the property market is not.

Have you decided to be propremain or propexit? Tell me what you think in the comments.

Arcachon
29-06-16, 23:23
If bank can lend me money I will still buy.

teddybear
29-06-16, 23:28
What is stopping the bank from lending to you?



If bank can lend me money I will still buy.

Kelonguni
30-06-16, 00:02
Uncertainty can mean prices fly also.

Just look at the impact Brexit has on stocks.

As the world gets more and more uncertain, Governments will get more and more insecure and lower interest rates, and perhaps even restart quantitative easing???

We shall see.

Arcachon
30-06-16, 06:19
What is stopping the bank from lending to you?

TDSR

teddybear
30-06-16, 08:51
So TDSR is good for you or bad for you?


TDSR

jeaprp
30-06-16, 09:19
If they remove ABSD , the mkt might see more buying.

HP65
30-06-16, 11:52
If they remove ABSD , the mkt might see more buying.

Without removing ABSD, Sg market has already started stirring. So you are right. Market has accepted this steady state. It helps that other markets are unstable (Europe) or also raising taxes (eg Oz)

jeaprp
30-06-16, 12:59
Without removing ABSD, Sg market has already started stirring. So you are right. Market has accepted this steady state. It helps that other markets are unstable (Europe) or also raising taxes (eg Oz)

A lot of ppl still waiting,
they dont want to pay extra 7%, 10%, 15%

teddybear
30-06-16, 15:10
If you want to buy in CCR, don't even need to wait because the price drop is like 30-40% already and paying extra of even 15% still save 15-25%, BIG BARGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!

If you are buying in OCR, you can still wait (because price still at historical PEAK price, HIGHEST since Singapore comes into existence, not to mention still have to add 7,10, or 15% more!)............................


A lot of ppl still waiting,
they dont want to pay extra 7%, 10%, 15%

HP65
30-06-16, 15:14
A lot of ppl still waiting,
they dont want to pay extra 7%, 10%, 15%

Most Singaporeans do not wish to pay the 7%. Previously quite a lot of foreigners also do not want to pay the 15%. But as time goes by, with the Govt stating no lifting of cooling measures any time soon, fence sitters decided to make the move, hoping for first mover's advantage. As mentioned, other markets are raising taxes too and when foreigners compare it to Sg, they feel the playing field has closed somewhat.

I have a friend who has the ability to buy in Oz AND in Sg but baulk at paying the 15% ABSD. Now with the govt saying measures won't be lifted, he felt there isn't any point in waiting. Furthermore when he compared his Sdy investments to Sg investments, he felt our market is generally more open (to locals and foreigners), meaning easier to make money. It was really refreshing to hear an outsider's opinions of Sg ppty landscape.

Kelonguni
30-06-16, 15:51
And the best person to buy from is none other than teddybear!


If you want to buy in CCR, don't even need to wait because the price drop is like 30-40% already and paying extra of even 15% still save 15-25%, BIG BARGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!

If you are buying in OCR, you can still wait (because price still at historical PEAK price, HIGHEST since Singapore comes into existence, not to mention still have to add 7,10, or 15% more!)............................

jeaprp
30-06-16, 16:53
Drop 40%, CCR still very big quantum
OCR cannot fight lah

teddybear
30-06-16, 18:08
Big quantum but $PSF cheap cheap, good for rich people to buy cheap cheap and less competition to push price up (not like OCR, just make physical size smaller and absolute quantum lower (but $PSF still so expensive at historical peak price now) and lots of people can afford so $PSF can never drop like that............. Anyway, nobody care whether OCR $PSF cheap or not right? :applause:


Drop 40%, CCR still very big quantum
OCR cannot fight lah

Amber Woods
30-06-16, 18:20
An inconvenient truth: Property curbs may never be lifted, analysts warn

In order to boost spending, reduce wage inflation.

Market watchers are always racing ahead of each other when it comes to predicting when policymakers will lift property cooling measures. But now a report by Maybank Kim Eng has posed a previously unthinkable question: What if buying curbs become permanent?

The report argued that unless property prices plunge suddenly and dramatically, buying curbs may not be lifted in order to substantially reduce Singapore's unhealthy fixation with real estate.

"Singapore households have SGD840b of capital or 209% of GDP tied up in residential property. This has resulted in lower disposable income which has impeded consumer spending and muzzled entrepreneurship. Another less obvious implication of property 'overinvestment' is that home-price appreciation fuels wage inflation, reducing Singapore’s cost competitiveness," said the report.
Residential properties also remain a wildly popular investment class despite paltry returns in recent years, with investors stashing away bulk of their savings in the expectation that they can one day snap up homes once house prices eventually drop.

"Singapore households are sitting on a cash pile of SGD374b, which has surged since property curbs were rolled out in 2009. We believe that residential properties are sucking in surplus capital, with an increasing number of Singaporeans buying their second and third properties. This is economically non-productive," said the report.

The report argued that the economy will be better off if this idle capital is deployed elsewhere, such as by boosting entrepreneurship and improving consumer spending. Maybank Kim Eng also noted that higher home prices are driving wage inflation, which will impinge on Singapore's labour competitiveness.

Maybank Kim Eng argued that Singaporeans need to be weaned from their age-old aspirations of being landlords earning passive rental income. Investors also need to shed their deeply entrenched belief that investment properties are the best assrt class to hold.

“To ensure Singapore’s long-term survival, we believe that the government should not remove property-cooling measures. A sustained and gradual easing of property prices is necessary to restore business competitiveness, in our view. If part of the monies that has been locked away in anticipation of a bottoming of the property cycle flows towards productive assets or even consumption, we believe entrepreneurship can be enhanced and thrive,” Maybank Kim Eng noted.

- See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/in-focus/inconvenient-truth-property-curbs-may-never-be-lifted-analysts-warn#sthash.8J7j6Ruh.dpuf

Kelonguni
30-06-16, 19:45
I have said for the longest time already. Tax on properties will only go up, especially multiple properties. Better pray the Brexit and low interest rate doesn't cause too many foreign buyers to come.

Arcachon
30-06-16, 21:00
So TDSR is good for you or bad for you?

Bad for me, now no up no down.

My friends' father 75 yrs old was given 25 yrs loan before all the CM to buy a condo.

teddybear
30-06-16, 23:44
But the government said TDSR is to protect you, so you agree?
If you agree, then how can it be bad for you?



Bad for me, now no up no down.

My friends' father 75 yrs old was given 25 yrs loan before all the CM to buy a condo.

august
30-06-16, 23:56
An inconvenient truth: Property curbs may never be lifted, analysts warn

In order to boost spending, reduce wage inflation.

Market watchers are always racing ahead of each other when it comes to predicting when policymakers will lift property cooling measures. But now a report by Maybank Kim Eng has posed a previously unthinkable question: What if buying curbs become permanent?

The report argued that unless property prices plunge suddenly and dramatically, buying curbs may not be lifted in order to substantially reduce Singapore's unhealthy fixation with real estate.

"Singapore households have SGD840b of capital or 209% of GDP tied up in residential property. This has resulted in lower disposable income which has impeded consumer spending and muzzled entrepreneurship. Another less obvious implication of property 'overinvestment' is that home-price appreciation fuels wage inflation, reducing Singapore’s cost competitiveness," said the report.
Residential properties also remain a wildly popular investment class despite paltry returns in recent years, with investors stashing away bulk of their savings in the expectation that they can one day snap up homes once house prices eventually drop.

"Singapore households are sitting on a cash pile of SGD374b, which has surged since property curbs were rolled out in 2009. We believe that residential properties are sucking in surplus capital, with an increasing number of Singaporeans buying their second and third properties. This is economically non-productive," said the report.

The report argued that the economy will be better off if this idle capital is deployed elsewhere, such as by boosting entrepreneurship and improving consumer spending. Maybank Kim Eng also noted that higher home prices are driving wage inflation, which will impinge on Singapore's labour competitiveness.

Maybank Kim Eng argued that Singaporeans need to be weaned from their age-old aspirations of being landlords earning passive rental income. Investors also need to shed their deeply entrenched belief that investment properties are the best assrt class to hold.

“To ensure Singapore’s long-term survival, we believe that the government should not remove property-cooling measures. A sustained and gradual easing of property prices is necessary to restore business competitiveness, in our view. If part of the monies that has been locked away in anticipation of a bottoming of the property cycle flows towards productive assets or even consumption, we believe entrepreneurship can be enhanced and thrive,” Maybank Kim Eng noted.

- See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/in-focus/inconvenient-truth-property-curbs-may-never-be-lifted-analysts-warn#sthash.8J7j6Ruh.dpuf

Ironic that car loan guidelines and measures are eased instead.

teddybear
01-07-16, 00:20
Ironic indeed!
There are even more money stuck invested in shopping malls that nobody talked about!

Why???
Because shopping malls space can be rented out at >$35 psf (vs $3 psf for private residential properties)!!!!!!!!!!!! :beaten:

These money can be diverted to creating more businesses and jobs instead, and shouldn't that call for harsh property cooling measures for commercial properties (including shopping retail properties)??? Why there aren't there any "buying curbs" "to substantially reduce Singapore's unhealthy fixation with COMMERCIAL real estate"???


An inconvenient truth: Property curbs may never be lifted, analysts warn

In order to boost spending, reduce wage inflation.

Market watchers are always racing ahead of each other when it comes to predicting when policymakers will lift property cooling measures. But now a report by Maybank Kim Eng has posed a previously unthinkable question: What if buying curbs become permanent?

The report argued that unless property prices plunge suddenly and dramatically, buying curbs may not be lifted in order to substantially reduce Singapore's unhealthy fixation with real estate.

"Singapore households have SGD840b of capital or 209% of GDP tied up in residential property. This has resulted in lower disposable income which has impeded consumer spending and muzzled entrepreneurship. Another less obvious implication of property 'overinvestment' is that home-price appreciation fuels wage inflation, reducing Singapore’s cost competitiveness," said the report.
Residential properties also remain a wildly popular investment class despite paltry returns in recent years, with investors stashing away bulk of their savings in the expectation that they can one day snap up homes once house prices eventually drop.

"Singapore households are sitting on a cash pile of SGD374b, which has surged since property curbs were rolled out in 2009. We believe that residential properties are sucking in surplus capital, with an increasing number of Singaporeans buying their second and third properties. This is economically non-productive," said the report.

The report argued that the economy will be better off if this idle capital is deployed elsewhere, such as by boosting entrepreneurship and improving consumer spending. Maybank Kim Eng also noted that higher home prices are driving wage inflation, which will impinge on Singapore's labour competitiveness.

Maybank Kim Eng argued that Singaporeans need to be weaned from their age-old aspirations of being landlords earning passive rental income. Investors also need to shed their deeply entrenched belief that investment properties are the best assrt class to hold.

“To ensure Singapore’s long-term survival, we believe that the government should not remove property-cooling measures. A sustained and gradual easing of property prices is necessary to restore business competitiveness, in our view. If part of the monies that has been locked away in anticipation of a bottoming of the property cycle flows towards productive assets or even consumption, we believe entrepreneurship can be enhanced and thrive,” Maybank Kim Eng noted.

- See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/in-focus/inconvenient-truth-property-curbs-may-never-be-lifted-analysts-warn#sthash.8J7j6Ruh.dpuf

teddybear
01-07-16, 00:28
77th Street closing, citing High Rental of $35 psf !!!!!!!!


Local clothing brand 77th Street to close last outlet by end July

Thursday, Jun 30, 2016
AsiaOne
Singapore's struggling retail scene will claim yet another victim soon: well-known streetwear chain 77th Street.

The home-grown clothing company will be closing the doors of its last outlet in Ang Mo Kio by the end of July, Channel NewsAsia reported.

Founder Elim Chew told Mediacorp that high rentals was the reason behind the decision to shut down, contrasting the present rental rate of $35 per square foot with the rate of $9 per square foot when she first started the business.

Previously, she said in a interview with The Straits Times that the brand was shutting its stores over the years because of higher rentals and manpower shortages.

......................................
(http://business.asiaone.com/news/local-clothing-brand-77th-street-close-last-outlet-end-july)




Ironic indeed!
There are even more money stuck invested in shopping malls that nobody talked about!

Why???
Because shopping malls space can be rented out at >$35 psf (vs $3 psf for private residential properties)!!!!!!!!!!!! :beaten:

These money can be diverted to creating more businesses and jobs instead, and shouldn't that call for harsh property cooling measures for commercial properties (including shopping retail properties)??? Why there aren't there any "buying curbs" "to substantially reduce Singapore's unhealthy fixation with COMMERCIAL real estate"???

Arcachon
01-07-16, 23:58
But the government said TDSR is to protect you, so you agree?
If you agree, then how can it be bad for you?

I agree TDSR is to protect those who speculate.

TDSR cause me great inconvenient or stop me from adjusting my property holding, cannot sell cannot buy.

Since the day I bought my first property in 1988 till the last property in Jun 2011, I have no problem with the regulation they spell out.

Only one regulation from MAS where they say cash out cannot buy property, where they are unable and not willing to control.

Have been a good boy playing by the book, not over leverage compare to what asset and liability I have.

Should have been bolder and do something like getting 11 property from 11 Bank in Singapore.