View Full Version : Which cooling measures to remove first ?
Wunderkind
21-02-15, 14:56
PROPERTY COOLING MEASURES
Property cooling measures are another issue on the minds of many. While National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan has said some of these measures are temporary, the market has to be cool enough for them to be relaxed.
However, industry experts have said this is unlikely to happen soon. They notes while prices have come down, they have not fallen drastically. Last year, overall prices of HDB resale flats fell by six per cent, while those of private homes fell by four per cent.
Analysts added that other factors should also be taken into account.
Associate Professor Lim Lan Yuan, from the Department of Real Estate at the National University of Singapore, elaborated: "The Government should really monitor the market situation. First, (they should) look at the number of property transactions, whether there is an indication there is a fall in the volume. They should also look at the prices, whether there is a drastic fall in the prices.
“On the other hand, they should also look at the number of mortgagee sales - it may have gone up, indicating that there is some problem with some of the owners who have bought high. They would of course look at the economy. Not only the local, also the external and global economy. So when the situation is not really that conducive, that may be a time they should consider relaxing some of the measures."
However, Assoc Prof said the cooling measures, if relaxed, should be done in phases. He added that the Seller’s Stamp Duty could be one of the first to be removed. He said: “The Seller’s Stamp Duty is different, the impact is to really curb speculative activities.
proud owner
22-02-15, 20:28
although market hasnt fallen drastically, we must not ignore the fact the interest rates are going up.
in my opinion, to be preemptive, now is the time to consider removing some of the cooling measures.
Wunderkind
22-02-15, 21:13
although market hasnt fallen drastically, we must not ignore the fact the interest rates are going up.
in my opinion, to be preemptive, now is the time to consider removing some of the cooling measures.
The government is monitoring the situation closely. I have no doubt that they have already worked out the relief measures, but waiting for the right time to execute. It will probably come after the GE and after the Fed has raised interest rates.
As Minister Khaw likes to use Chinese parables to illustrate his point , the situation , if he would like to put it , will be " everything is all ready.. only waiting for the East wind " ;)
Some are expecting absd to be removed as tdsr and SSD are suffice to prevent risky speculative activities. If this happen foreign buyers will return and luxury segment will be first to benefit.
proud owner
22-02-15, 21:32
The government is monitoring the situation closely. I have no doubt that they have already worked out the relief measures, but waiting for the right time to execute. It will probably come after the GE and after the Fed has raised interest rates.
As Minister Khaw likes to use Chinese parables to illustrate his point , the situation , if he would like to put it , will be " everything is all ready.. only waiting for the East wind " ;)
hahaha
in my opinion, everything is ready, the East wind has also started blowing.... just hasnt reached our shore ...
if we wait till it reaches our shore, it may bring a Tsunami ....
Wunderkind
22-02-15, 22:16
hahaha
in my opinion, everything is ready, the East wind has also started blowing.... just hasnt reached our shore ...
if we wait till it reaches our shore, it may bring a Tsunami ....
No question about the impact of the cooling measures particularly on the high end luxury segment of the market.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/18/realestate/a-high-end-property-collapse-in-singapore.html?fb_ref=Default&_r=1
But as we all know, the PAP only won by the narrowest of margin in the last election. They learnt it well not to risk it in the coming GE.
Did they?
Think they climbing up the wrong tree about property price lah!
My opinion is that the main reason why they won by only the narrowest of margin is because while cutting the tax of the high income earners (including their own) from 33% to 20% and also the corporate tax of the rich from 30% to 17%, they introduced GST and increased that to 7%, causing high inflation which can be felt everywhere, including basic necessities! The 7% GST basically hit >70% of the Singaporeans badly who do not benefit at all from income tax cuts! Talk about increasing GST to help the poor, but the poor only made up <20% of the Singaporeans! So should they learnt it well not to increase GST so as not to help the POOR and penalize the >70% Singaporeans anymore???
No question about the impact of the cooling measures particularly on the high end luxury segment of the market.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/18/realestate/a-high-end-property-collapse-in-singapore.html?fb_ref=Default&_r=1
But as we all know, the PAP only won by the narrowest of margin in the last election. They learnt it well not to risk it in the coming GE.
Wunderkind
23-02-15, 09:30
Did they?
Think they climbing up the wrong tree about property price lah!
My opinion is that the main reason why they won by only the narrowest of margin is because while cutting the tax of the high income earners (including their own) from 33% to 20% and also the corporate tax of the rich from 30% to 17%, they introduced GST and increased that to 7%, causing high inflation which can be felt everywhere, including basic necessities! The 7% GST basically hit >70% of the Singaporeans badly who do not benefit at all from income tax cuts! Talk about increasing GST to help the poor, but the poor only made up <20% of the Singaporeans! So should they learnt it well not to increase GST so as not to help the POOR and penalize the >70% Singaporeans anymore???
True... there are many reasons for a poor showing of the GE results. Specifically, however, on housing, the issue was affordability for the private and HDB and inequality perception created by foreigners buying properties at prices beyond the reach of even our affluent Singaporeans.
It is like the case of "my pet still stays in the kennel, but they are buying bedroom for their pet". Although not many here except one in this forum has done it :)
Regulators
23-02-15, 13:53
Speculation that absd may be removed...
Speculation that absd may be removed...
I think not likely this year.
chiongkakis
23-02-15, 15:35
i dun think it will be removed so soon with khaw just making some speech about how government managed to stabilized the market.
proud owner
23-02-15, 16:35
i dun think it will be removed so soon with khaw just making some speech about how government managed to stabilized the market.
stabilized the HDB market maybe.
but the private property market is impacted more.
the property affordability issues should not include the private property.
Wunderkind
24-02-15, 07:38
Speculation that absd may be removed...
Possibly this may be the first to be removed to rekindle demand to the falling market. With the impending unsold supply coming onsteam, the removal of the ABSD will soak up the supply providing a balance. The government will likely keep TDSR in place to prevent over gearing and ensure that people are buying at their affordability level.
Regulators
24-02-15, 12:56
Tdsr will be in place to prevent average income people from over leveraging. Removal of absd will help developers to offload some of their inventory and cash rich buyers not affected by tdsr will form the bulkof buyers.
Possibly this may be the first to be removed to rekindle demand to the falling market. With the impending unsold supply coming onsteam, the removal of the ABSD will soak up the supply providing a balance. The government will likely keep TDSR in place to prevent over gearing and ensure that people are buying at their affordability level.
invigorated
24-02-15, 13:54
Tdsr will be in place to prevent average income people from over leveraging. Removal of absd will help developers to offload some of their inventory and cash rich buyers not affected by tdsr will form the bulkof buyers.
I doubt any of this will be done before the election as the measures are just taking effect and prices are not showing any major corrections. Govt probably will use the current price correction to win some votes and show that measures have been effective. They won't rock the boat yet.
Regulators
24-02-15, 13:59
When election date announced, can start accumulating property stocks :D
I doubt any of this will be done before the election as the measures are just taking effect and prices are not showing any major corrections. Govt probably will use the current price correction to win some votes and show that measures have been effective. They won't rock the boat yet.
When you print money and you want the money to go to the economy not the real estate. If this is correct, none of the CMs is going to remove.
Regulators
24-02-15, 14:47
Property will always be a revenue generator for the govt and they can get constant revenue from property taxes, stamp duties, GST (for commercial pty transactions) etc. When the govt earns, it benefits the economy when the money goes to improve infrastructure and increase revenue for businesses.
When you print money and you want the money to go to the economy not the real estate. If this is correct, none of the CMs is going to remove.
If that is true, than don't need CMs, we need more ghost Town. When you money is strong it affect your economy, what you do next is print money 啰
https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/11002647_10204592752311687_9195757010213831057_n.jpg?oh=bccb8748b98d9389a0df8a98863ba081&oe=55858BA4&__gda__=1431525569_8d6795d2d440e289c0789869af3e16fd
Wunderkind
24-02-15, 21:26
When you print money and you want the money to go to the economy not the real estate. If this is correct, none of the CMs is going to remove.
So, the worry is that the "hot money" from Europe may flow into Singapore's real estate creating another asset inflation. And your hypothesis is that CMs are therefore here to stay.
But doing so, it will also hurt Singaporeans especially those in the real estate business including construction, renovation, furniture and other related industries. Can the government do something to help Singaporeans and Singapore's businesses with relief to the cooling measures ?
So, the worry is that the "hot money" from Europe may flow into Singapore's real estate creating another asset inflation. And your hypothesis is that CMs are therefore here to stay.
But doing so, it will also hurt Singaporeans especially those in the real estate business including construction, renovation, furniture and other related industries. Can the government do something to help Singaporeans and Singapore's businesses with relief to the cooling measures ?
Please lah! Expect govt to help here and there, you think govt got gold hill ah! So many ppl need help, not just construction business. There are many more poor ppl not getting sufficient help. The latest budget just isn't enough. Ask more and fuel tax will go up more! So stop asking!
When I was in the Air Force, our building program depends on the economic. When the economic is good all building program kiv until it is bad.
Don't worry the billion dollar project will take care of the real estate business.
Have you notice the BTO and private housing is reducing and the Airport, Cross Island Line, High speed rail, etc is going to start building.
CMs will not be remove, money printing will only increase and the value of the property with depreciated money.
The property will only depreciate with the depreciation of the money, you need more of the depreciated money to buy property.
And money in the bank will only depreciated so that others can share your wealth.
Welcome to the new world order and history largest wealth transfer. The have and the have not.
Jun 2006 Southbank 2 Bedroom cost SGD 535,000, I use 20% cash to buy, now with the depreciated money how much more do you need to use to buy the same property.
If I put my 20% cash in the Bank what can I buy now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tmxW3fhoAU
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=The+Coming+Wealth+Transfer
Wunderkind
25-02-15, 07:25
Please lah! Expect govt to help here and there, you think govt got gold hill ah! So many ppl need help, not just construction business. There are many more poor ppl not getting sufficient help. The latest budget just isn't enough. Ask more and fuel tax will go up more! So stop asking!
You don't get my point. With TDSR imposed on Singaporeans and not on foreigners, how far can Singaporeans leverage to buy properties? It is a unequal playing field. Of course the ABSD is working correctly by reining in on foreign purchases. But when other countries are printing monies , we are hampered and our real estate businesses get hurt because CM stay to stop foreigners from excessive buying. Just want to highlight the point is that there should be a relief for Singapireans in term of level playing field when the market continue to slide. Our government can also remove TDSR to help Singapirean to compete with foreigners at the high end market .
Wunderkind
25-02-15, 15:29
When I was in the Air Force, our building program depends on the economic. When the economic is good all building program kiv until it is bad.
Don't worry the billion dollar project will take care of the real estate business.
Have you notice the BTO and private housing is reducing and the Airport, Cross Island Line, High speed rail, etc is going to start building.
CMs will not be remove, money printing will only increase and the value of the property with depreciated money.
The property will only depreciate with the depreciation of the money, you need more of the depreciated money to buy property.
And money in the bank will only depreciated so that others can share your wealth.
Welcome to the new world order and history largest wealth transfer. The have and the have not.
Jun 2006 Southbank 2 Bedroom cost SGD 535,000, I use 20% cash to buy, now with the depreciated money how much more do you need to use to buy the same property.
If I put my 20% cash in the Bank what can I buy now.
Always good to hear your perspective on money matters.
The problem with countries printing more monies is that they can start a currency war and everything starts to lose its value. If you goes into Malaysia using SGD , you will find that you are richer than before but things there will then start to catch up and eventually it becomes expensive. Lesson learnt is that since monies loses its value over time , it is good to start investing early.
Our government can also remove TDSR to help Singaporean to compete with foreigners at the high end market .
They only help themselves, we have to help ourselves if you cannot help yourselves no one can help you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYjhw0W-3Hk
help Singapirean to compete with foreigners at the high end market? You must be joking!
Those fire sales in high end market are mostly by Singaporeans! Cannot stand anymore, so need to sell cheap cheap to foreigners and other richer Singaporeans with ABSD that they need to pay to govt priced in!
However, mass market condos mostly bought by Singaporeans, too bad, no fire sale for you to buy (for now)! they still got lands of mass market land to sell to developers to build mass market condos!
End of day, govt win, so that they can continue to give Ang Bao Budget!
You don't get my point. With TDSR imposed on Singaporeans and not on foreigners, how far can Singaporeans leverage to buy properties? It is a unequal playing field. Of course the ABSD is working correctly by reining in on foreign purchases. But when other countries are printing monies , we are hampered and our real estate businesses get hurt because CM stay to stop foreigners from excessive buying. Just want to highlight the point is that there should be a relief for Singapireans in term of level playing field when the market continue to slide. Our government can also remove TDSR to help Singapirean to compete with foreigners at the high end market .
https://www.facebook.com/sqftsg/photos/a.406058532779857.108964.369278666457844/881793318539707/?type=1&theater (https://www.facebook.com/sqftsg/photos/a.406058532779857.108964.369278666457844/881793318539707/?type=1&theater)
Square Foot Research - Singapore Property Research
Just when we least expected it, another Semi-Detached House, freehold, was resold at a loss in February just merely 54 days after it was bought. Sold at $3.6m, total loss for this transaction at Springleaf Garden adds up to at least $816K including the 16% SSD payable.
proud owner
25-02-15, 20:34
https://www.facebook.com/sqftsg/photos/a.406058532779857.108964.369278666457844/881793318539707/?type=1&theater (https://www.facebook.com/sqftsg/photos/a.406058532779857.108964.369278666457844/881793318539707/?type=1&theater)
Square Foot Research - Singapore Property Research
Just when we least expected it, another Semi-Detached House, freehold, was resold at a loss in February just merely 54 days after it was bought. Sold at $3.6m, total loss for this transaction at Springleaf Garden adds up to at least $816K including the 16% SSD payable.
any idea why sell after 54 days ?
Washing, from Black to white. One of the reason I can think of.
You don't get my point. With TDSR imposed on Singaporeans and not on foreigners, how far can Singaporeans leverage to buy properties? It is a unequal playing field. Of course the ABSD is working correctly by reining in on foreign purchases. But when other countries are printing monies , we are hampered and our real estate businesses get hurt because CM stay to stop foreigners from excessive buying. Just want to highlight the point is that there should be a relief for Singapireans in term of level playing field when the market continue to slide. Our government can also remove TDSR to help Singapirean to compete with foreigners at the high end market .
Are you an agent? Helping Singaporean at the high end market is really suicidal for the govt. Would you rather swap place with the foreigners to "enjoy" ABSD instead of TDSR? No money to loose, don't buy high end! We don't want to see poor Singaporeans breaking their banks to firesale their CCR apartments. CCR is reserved for the rich and only the rich can hold firm! Poor Singaporeans buy ulu OCR... ... ... HDB!
Wunderkind
26-02-15, 07:28
Are you an agent? Helping Singaporean at the high end market is really suicidal for the govt. Would you rather swap place with the foreigners to "enjoy" ABSD instead of TDSR? No money to loose, don't buy high end! We don't want to see poor Singaporeans breaking their banks to firesale their CCR apartments. CCR is reserved for the rich and only the rich can hold firm! Poor Singaporeans buy ulu OCR... ... ... HDB!
Either the government keeps ABSD for foreigners high or relax on the TDSR for Singapireans will provide a more even playing field . If Sungapireans cannot afford to pay s lot more for CCR then prices will stabilize.
I doubt any of this will be done before the election as the measures are just taking effect and prices are not showing any major corrections. Govt probably will use the current price correction to win some votes and show that measures have been effective. They won't rock the boat yet.
I think the boat is sinking, even if they don't rock it.
You don't get my point. With TDSR imposed on Singaporeans and not on foreigners, how far can Singaporeans leverage to buy properties? It is a unequal playing field. Of course the ABSD is working correctly by reining in on foreign purchases. But when other countries are printing monies , we are hampered and our real estate businesses get hurt because CM stay to stop foreigners from excessive buying. Just want to highlight the point is that there should be a relief for Singapireans in term of level playing field when the market continue to slide. Our government can also remove TDSR to help Singapirean to compete with foreigners at the high end market .
Not many Foreigner will invest if Singapore property if Government apply double standard. Foreigner that have that kind of money is not stupid. Look what happen with Australia property.
Think you barking up the wrong tree lah!
CCR private property prices already crashed! Didn't you see all the CCR fire sale transactions posted by bargain hunter! (NO FIRE-SALE for OCR private property!)
Think govt will need to see OCR private property prices down by 15% more for prices to stabilize... Which means govt property cooling measures are NOT EFFECTIVE on OCR! but they dragging their feet.... May be more tightening aimed at OCR after General Election if OCR don't fall more?
Either the government keeps ABSD for foreigners high or relax on the TDSR for Singapireans will provide a more even playing field . If Sungapireans cannot afford to pay s lot more for CCR then prices will stabilize.
Wunderkind
26-02-15, 12:53
Not many Foreigner will invest if Singapore property if Government apply double standard. Foreigner that have that kind of money is not stupid. Look what happen with Australia property.
Agreed... we should let the market dictate the price of the property. But we are not living in normal times these days. Other countries are printing monies like $60B a month. Where do all these monies end up ? Believe me, I have seen foreigners paid for 3 to 4 condo units without even getting a mortgage loan. Where the monies come from ? No-body knows...
Abnormal times call for abnormal measures. And so, our government introduced a slew of CMs to curb the runaway asset inflation.
However, the CMs that were implemented to curb hot money inflow has also tanked the market because Singaporeans are also penalized from buying and investing in properties at home. Who suffers most ? The foreigners can still go elsewhere to buy properties... of course Singaporeans no choice... follow the foreigners too. In today's market , wouldn't it be good for the government to give a little more leeway to Singaporeans only to buy and invest properties ... at least they can inject some life to the market and not create a speculative bubble with foreigners' hot monies.
First you need to know who is your Central Bank Chairman, what is his level of knowledge on Money than you will know why CMs will not be remove.
http://news.asiaone.com/news/business/rbs-makes-73-billion-loss-pulling-out-25-countries
Bank can print all the money they want, it is the Central Bank that decided who can get it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bx5Sc3vWefE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmOZ3jtGtCc
propertypal
04-03-15, 20:47
there might be some good news coming soon now that REDAS has urged govt to relook ABSD, especially for luxury markets
I suspect below situation I highlighted to another forumer is more likely................
there might be some good news coming soon now that REDAS has urged govt to relook ABSD, especially for luxury markets
Think you barking up the wrong tree lah!
CCR private property prices already crashed! Didn't you see all the CCR fire sale transactions posted by bargain hunter! (NO FIRE-SALE for OCR private property!)
Think govt will need to see OCR private property prices down by 15% more for prices to stabilize... Which means govt property cooling measures are NOT EFFECTIVE on OCR! but they dragging their feet.... May be more tightening aimed at OCR after General Election if OCR don't fall more?
propertypal
05-03-15, 07:52
why OCR prices maintain even though OCR and RCR have come down?
OCR is about affordability......
Developers are building smaller and smaller houses but selling at about the same quantum (and hence maintaining the $PSF sold)!
Isn't this happening to the HDB flats too?
Same 5-room HDB flats, same housing estate, the old ones are 131 sqm, the newer ones are barely 105 sqm!
why OCR prices maintain even though OCR and RCR have come down?
170 sqm 5 room Jumbo, 131sqm is 5 room A model, 126 sqm is 5 room I model, the right size 5 room is 105sqm.
The cow say HDB size did not reduce size, they just when back to built the 3, 4, 5 room standard model no more upsize, want upsize buy resale.
http://news.asiaone.com/News/Latest+News/Singapore/Story/A1Story20120502-343524.html
https://www.facebook.com/notes/reachsingapore/hdb-wont-shrink-flats-says-khaw-boon-wan/10150891373663795
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-FU9IvgufeEc/T6JcGL9idpI/AAAAAAAAAps/oth3EEWrtyo/s1600/HDB+Flat+Size.jpg
http://singaporedesk.blogspot.fr/2012/05/smaller-sizes-bigger-lies.html
there might be some good news coming soon now that REDAS has urged govt to relook ABSD, especially for luxury markets
http://propertyconciergesg.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Non-landed-Overall-Sales.jpg
http://propertyconciergesg.com/cooling-measures/#!prettyPhoto
propertypal
05-03-15, 15:42
That makes sense, teddybear! Tx! 😄
OCR is about affordability......
Developers are building smaller and smaller houses but selling at about the same quantum (and hence maintaining the $PSF sold)!
Isn't this happening to the HDB flats too?
Same 5-room HDB flats, same housing estate, the old ones are 131 sqm, the newer ones are barely 105 sqm!
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