First-Timer Buying Attitude Index - Q1 2015 [Archive] - Condo Forum Singapore Property Review Mortgage Loan Buy Rent Sell Real Estate

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richwang

01-02-15, 11:30

Assuming you are a first-time buyer for Singapore condominium, is it a good time to buy?

richwang

01-02-15, 11:32

For general Singapore residential buying attitude index, you can visit the thread:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php/23208-Buying-Attitude-Index-Q1-2015

...or, simply type in "buying attitude index" in www.google.com.sg,
it is among the top search results. Thanks a lot for voting.

richwang

01-02-15, 11:35

How does it work?
Everyone is entitled for one vote, the index is calculated by:
the percentage of bulls - percentage of bears
(Please vote even if you are neutral because it will change the overall percentage scores).

Historical Data

Time Frame, First Timer Index, General Index
Q1 2014, -16, -34
Q2 2014, +44, -43
Q3 2014, -8, -19
Q4 2014, +17, +12
Q1 2015, ??, +7

It is clear that the First Time Buying Attitude Index is a leading indicator. And also the general Buying Attitude Index has turned to POSITIVE. So your vote will confirm whether the tide has indeed changed - we want to be the early birds: the first group to spot the down trend and the first group to sense the up trend.

Thanks for voting - even when you are neutral, it will affect the overall index.

richwang

02-02-15, 18:54

Number of votes: 8
Index: 88 - 13 = 75

apparently we need more votes.
thanks,

richwang

08-02-15, 14:33

Number of votes: 9
Index: 89 - 11 = +78

This highest I have ever seen, but need more votes to confirm.

Thanks,

richwang

14-02-15, 11:17

Number of votes: 12
Index: 67 - 25 = +42

Yuki

14-02-15, 23:33

Number of votes: 12
Index: 67 - 25 = +42

Did this voting forecasted the start of last property bull back in 2009?

richwang

15-02-15, 20:19

Good question. But the index only started in 2014, and because it is subjective index by the voters, we cannot back fill the data.

Number of votes: 19
Index: 58 - 32 = 26

prop1688

15-02-15, 21:05

buying attitude will never improve or flamboyant if government does not lift up TDSR and other cooling measures.

richwang

17-02-15, 19:03

TDSR will stay (and should stay).
ABSD will be the first one to go, and first timer buying attitude index gives you a clue of what the market will be if that happens.

Number of votes: 20
Index: 60 - 30 = 30

prop1688

24-02-15, 22:15

i would thought that TDSR is still the main killer as compared to ABSD.

richwang

27-02-15, 20:27

Yes, TDSR is the main killer - and it should have been the first killer. (But G. doesn't make money from this rule.) MAS has said it will be a "permanent" rule.
ABSD is temporary. Indeed it will be removed sector by sector. (Good money for the G.)

pmet

27-02-15, 22:13

buying attitude will never improve or flamboyant if government does not lift up TDSR and other cooling measures.

Yeah by the time they lift all CM interest rates will be 2-3% by then. Enjoy the low interest rates while you still can! Those who haven't, quickly leverage to the max!!!

prop1688

16-03-15, 21:58

I think days of extra-ordinary low interest will be over. Look at what is the current sibor rate. It is going to break the barrier of 1.0 in the very near future.

My take about the interest rate trending can be found in this post:
http://propertyinvestmentsingapore.sg/blog/sreit-outlook-in-2015/

yowetan

16-03-15, 22:05