7 signs of a property slowdown

[mr funny]

April 6, 2008

PROPERTY

7 signs of a property slowdown

Buyers seem to be gaining ground again in the private homes market but consultants say it's far from crashing yet

By Joyce Teo, Property Correspondent


After rocketing to dizzying heights last year, the private homes market has stalled because of the global credit crunch - an external factor that took the market by surprise.

The withdrawal of the deferred payment scheme last year has also dampened demand somewhat.

Sales volumes and interest have fizzled out just as quickly as the market surged last year.

While many players hang on to the notion that strong fundamentals - low interest rates, for instance - will support the market, sentiment has fast melted away.

Is the property market slowing to a crawl? We examine the mounting evidence.

1 Growth in home prices weakens

The Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA's) early estimate of first-quarter data showed a 4.2 per cent rise in private home prices against 6.8 per cent in the previous quarter and 31 per cent last year.

Consultants expect price growth to weaken. Prices, especially for high-end homes, might fall but not significantly as sellers are still reluctant to accept lower prices, said a seasoned property agent. 'There's no urgency to do so.'

2 Launches are held back

Developers have ample properties to sell but most continue to hold back launches. Some small ones have gone ahead but the response has been unimpressive.

With buyers and sellers choosing to remain on the sidelines as the global impact of a slowing United States economy remains uncertain, the market is largely quiet.

URA data showed that only 185 new private homes were sold in February, down from 328 in January. Last year, developers sold 14,811 new homes.

3 Collective sales have died down

This market is dead, for now at least, as developers stay away and new rules make it tougher for owners to sell en bloc.

So far this year, only one sale has been done compared with 26 in the first quarter of last year.

And one potential sale - that of Makeway View in Newton - was cancelled after the buyer, Bravo Building Construction, said it had found out that it would have to pay a higher-than-expected development charge.

Owners of some estates are starting to lower their price expectations.

Pinetree Condominium in Balmoral Park, for instance, was recently relaunched at a lower indicative price of $128 million - down from around $145 million last September, but still well above the 2006 price tag of $59 million.

4 Investor funds pull out or hold off

Islamic investment bank Kuwait Finance House, which agreed last December to buy 97 Goodwood Residence units for $818.4 million from GuocoLand, allowed the purchase option to lapse.

Both parties said last month that they were still in talks but did not provide clear reasons for the pullout. Industry sources had speculated that the fund's price - a record for the condo's area - was too high.

A recent DTZ Research report said some funds are holding off making investments, at least for the first half of this year, until the extent of the US slowdown and its global impact become clearer.

5 Sellers hand out discounts galore

In the resale market, sellers are getting more flexible. There are more desperate sellers in the market this year, property agents said.

Some want to sell one or two of their properties because they had bought some units under the deferred payment scheme, and payment is due in six months to a year, one agent said.

For new launches or sales of new units, some developers are also willing to give discounts when asked, while others offer stamp duty rebates to attract buyers.

6 Agents less sought after, ads dwindle

Property agents have more free time and are taking out fewer advertisements because of the poor response.

Last year, a seller's unit could be marketed by five to six agents, with the deal going to the agent who garnered the best price.

But this year, a seller might go with one agent, said HSR Property Group's executive director, Mr Eric Cheng.

On average, an ad for a reasonably priced unit could attract 12 to 15 calls last year. That is now down by half, he said. Prime, high-end homes have it worse, he added, noting that there could be no calls at all for some ads.

'I have not been advertising since Nov 15 because I could see sales volume falling,' said agent Andrew Soh.

7 Buyers toss in low bids to test the waters

Some developers have offered rather low bids in recent land tenders, which signals a slowing property market.

The Government in mid-March decided not to award a landed housing site in Jurong West as the bids were too low.

Then, the lowest bid for a Yishun condo site came in at just $95 per sq ft of potential gross floor area.

'The developers are pricing in the risks of falling prices,' said Knight Frank's director for consultancy and research, Mr Nicholas Mak.

'Given thin volume, they could also be hoping that there is no competition.'

Going forward, optimistic players are waiting for the market to regain some of its former glory in the next six months.

The pessimistic ones are prepared to ride out the whole year and possibly the next.

'If volume remains thin, there is a chance that private home prices might weaken this year, but the market is not expected to crash,' said Mr Mak.

[email protected]

[Unregistered]

You will commit the 7 deadly sins if you believe in these.

[Unregistered]

The writing was on the wall a long, long time ago.

[Unregistered]

The writing was on the wall a long, long time ago.


Sorry, what was the writing and how long time ago?

[Unregistered]

Sorry, what was the writing and how long time ago?
Crash has arrived.

[Unregistered]

April 6, 2008

PROPERTY

7 signs of a property slowdown

Buyers seem to be gaining ground again in the private homes market but consultants say it's far from crashing yet

By Joyce Teo, Property Correspondent


After rocketing to dizzying heights last year, the private homes market has stalled because of the global credit crunch - an external factor that took the market by surprise.

The withdrawal of the deferred payment scheme last year has also dampened demand somewhat.

Sales volumes and interest have fizzled out just as quickly as the market surged last year.

While many players hang on to the notion that strong fundamentals - low interest rates, for instance - will support the market, sentiment has fast melted away.

Is the property market slowing to a crawl? We examine the mounting evidence.

1 Growth in home prices weakens

The Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA's) early estimate of first-quarter data showed a 4.2 per cent rise in private home prices against 6.8 per cent in the previous quarter and 31 per cent last year.

Consultants expect price growth to weaken. Prices, especially for high-end homes, might fall but not significantly as sellers are still reluctant to accept lower prices, said a seasoned property agent. 'There's no urgency to do so.'

2 Launches are held back

Developers have ample properties to sell but most continue to hold back launches. Some small ones have gone ahead but the response has been unimpressive.

With buyers and sellers choosing to remain on the sidelines as the global impact of a slowing United States economy remains uncertain, the market is largely quiet.

URA data showed that only 185 new private homes were sold in February, down from 328 in January. Last year, developers sold 14,811 new homes.

3 Collective sales have died down

This market is dead, for now at least, as developers stay away and new rules make it tougher for owners to sell en bloc.

So far this year, only one sale has been done compared with 26 in the first quarter of last year.

And one potential sale - that of Makeway View in Newton - was cancelled after the buyer, Bravo Building Construction, said it had found out that it would have to pay a higher-than-expected development charge.

Owners of some estates are starting to lower their price expectations.

Pinetree Condominium in Balmoral Park, for instance, was recently relaunched at a lower indicative price of $128 million - down from around $145 million last September, but still well above the 2006 price tag of $59 million.

4 Investor funds pull out or hold off

Islamic investment bank Kuwait Finance House, which agreed last December to buy 97 Goodwood Residence units for $818.4 million from GuocoLand, allowed the purchase option to lapse.

Both parties said last month that they were still in talks but did not provide clear reasons for the pullout. Industry sources had speculated that the fund's price - a record for the condo's area - was too high.

A recent DTZ Research report said some funds are holding off making investments, at least for the first half of this year, until the extent of the US slowdown and its global impact become clearer.

5 Sellers hand out discounts galore

In the resale market, sellers are getting more flexible. There are more desperate sellers in the market this year, property agents said.

Some want to sell one or two of their properties because they had bought some units under the deferred payment scheme, and payment is due in six months to a year, one agent said.

For new launches or sales of new units, some developers are also willing to give discounts when asked, while others offer stamp duty rebates to attract buyers.

6 Agents less sought after, ads dwindle

Property agents have more free time and are taking out fewer advertisements because of the poor response.

Last year, a seller's unit could be marketed by five to six agents, with the deal going to the agent who garnered the best price.

But this year, a seller might go with one agent, said HSR Property Group's executive director, Mr Eric Cheng.

On average, an ad for a reasonably priced unit could attract 12 to 15 calls last year. That is now down by half, he said. Prime, high-end homes have it worse, he added, noting that there could be no calls at all for some ads.

'I have not been advertising since Nov 15 because I could see sales volume falling,' said agent Andrew Soh.

7 Buyers toss in low bids to test the waters

Some developers have offered rather low bids in recent land tenders, which signals a slowing property market.

The Government in mid-March decided not to award a landed housing site in Jurong West as the bids were too low.

Then, the lowest bid for a Yishun condo site came in at just $95 per sq ft of potential gross floor area.

'The developers are pricing in the risks of falling prices,' said Knight Frank's director for consultancy and research, Mr Nicholas Mak.

'Given thin volume, they could also be hoping that there is no competition.'

Going forward, optimistic players are waiting for the market to regain some of its former glory in the next six months.

The pessimistic ones are prepared to ride out the whole year and possibly the next.

'If volume remains thin, there is a chance that private home prices might weaken this year, but the market is not expected to crash,' said Mr Mak.

[email protected]

According to quite a few "experts" on this board the cannons are still booming. I just hope they are not confusing it with the big thuds of speculators jumping from high rises.

[Unregistered]

Why so many people have sudden reaction to this news and say its not true?
The reason simple. THEY STREZZZ LIAO. Nobody buy and start to bullsh1t again.

[Unregistered]

According to quite a few "experts" on this board the cannons are still booming. I just hope they are not confusing it with the big thuds of speculators jumping from high rises.
You are right. The thuds are echoing throughout the island as they rush for the exits. Many are being trampled. The thuds would get softer as they land on fellow speculators rushing for the exits.

[Unregistered]

According to quite a few "experts" on this board the cannons are still booming. I just hope they are not confusing it with the big thuds of speculators jumping from high rises.

And also MRT..........................

[Unregistered]

The sour grapes have been predicting the "crash" since last July, when the sub prime started.

But according to latest statistics, the residential price index has gone up 6.6% in Q4 2007 and another 4.2% in Q1 2008.

Now is April 2008, in another 3 months, we will celebrate "US sub prime" anniversary.

[Unregistered]

Why so many people have sudden reaction to this news and say its not true?
The reason simple. THEY STREZZZ LIAO. Nobody buy and start to bullsh1t again.

I totally agree with you, the last boom was too much and many ppl got trap while jumping into the wagon, plus recent stock market crash....many ppl will have to offload their property in return for cash.

[Unregistered]

The sour grapes have been predicting the "crash" since last July, when the sub prime started.

But according to latest statistics, the residential price index has gone up 6.6% in Q4 2007 and another 4.2% in Q1 2008.

Now is April 2008, in another 3 months, we will celebrate "US sub prime" anniversary.


Ya it will continue to go up and up.

[Unregistered]

I totally agree with you, the last boom was too much and many ppl got trap while jumping into the wagon, plus recent stock market crash....many ppl will have to offload their property in return for cash.
Yes there will be so many properties at attractive prices to choose from. Very ripe for picking - not sour grapes anymore.

Ce-le-brate good times, come on!

[Unregistered]

I totally agree with you, the last boom was too much and many ppl got trap while jumping into the wagon, plus recent stock market crash....many ppl will have to offload their property in return for cash.
You OK or not? Just because this is an Internet forum, doesn't mean you can anyhow smoke.

Stok market crash you head. Stock markets are about 15% below their all-time high.

[Unregistered]

The sour grapes have been predicting the "crash" since last July, when the sub prime started.

But according to latest statistics, the residential price index has gone up 6.6% in Q4 2007 and another 4.2% in Q1 2008.

Now is April 2008, in another 3 months, we will celebrate "US sub prime" anniversary.
Thud Thud Thud....oh those were 3 who just jumped off. In 3 months there would be the anniversary of the fried specualtors. In August the oil started boiling and speculators thrown into the oil and now came out fried. Oh fried fried fried. Now where to run. Running in circles holding URA numbers for consolation. Oh have mercy on them oh God.

[Unregistered]

Thud Thud Thud....oh those were 3 who just jumped off. In 3 months there would be the anniversary of the fried specualtors. In August the oil started boiling and speculators thrown into the oil and now came out fried. Oh fried fried fried. Now where to run. Running in circles holding URA numbers for consolation. Oh have mercy on them oh God.
Maddog/tigersee, you have been bullshitting the same shit almost a year now. Now still continuing the same trick?

[Unregistered]

Maddog/tigersee, you have been bullshitting the same shit almost a year now. Now still continuing the same trick?
Maddog/tigersee please dont change your identity.

[Unregistered]

Splash Splash Splash...those were 3 who just jumped into the sea off east coast. Oh myyyyy after reading the papers today many dashing to the exits. Those stuckkkkkk no way but to jump into the sea. Its all happening.

[Unregistered]

Great and timely article by Joyce Teo.

[actan1]

Well, HDB sellers are still asking for 60-70k cash above valuation :scared-4: !!!.
Is the market really slowing down ?? Transaction went down alot, but not for the price

[Unregistered]

Well, HDB sellers are still asking for 60-70k cash above valuation :scared-4: !!!.
Is the market really slowing down ?? Transaction went down alot, but not for the price

comeon nobody buying/selling that hurts martket sentiment ..pls all start buying/selling

[Unregistered]

Yes we need more buying and selling. Otherwise market cannot move. So stagnant.

[Unregistered]

Thud Thud Thud....oh those were 3 who just jumped off. In 3 months there would be the anniversary of the fried specualtors. In August the oil started boiling and speculators thrown into the oil and now came out fried. Oh fried fried fried. Now where to run. Running in circles holding URA numbers for consolation. Oh have mercy on them oh God.


Maddog/tigersee, you have been bullshitting the same shit almost a year now. Now still continuing the same trick?

The Maddog/tigersee already committed suicide after the URA index came up that property prices rose by 4.2% in Q1 2008, on top of 6.8% in Q4 2007.

That was his last post.

[Unregistered]

The Maddog/tigersee already committed suicide after the URA index came up that property prices rose by 4.2% in Q1 2008, on top of 6.8% in Q4 2007.

That was his last post.
Peaked Peaked Peaked
Analysts say it has peaked
Desperate flippers get freaked
Because they realised that the news has leaked
Now on to the exits as fast as they could bolt
Beacuse no question of their units ever being sold
Mayhem all over as they rush
Fellow flippers will they crush?
Thud Thud Thud Splash Splash Splash
It is all over in a flash

[Unregistered]

prices not dropping cuz rental not dropping.. who wanna sell at low price if can hole by renting out to pay mortgage? wanna wait for price crash, ask all those foreigners dun come singapore and rent.. issit happening? is rental crashing or gonna crash?

if u think that not gonna happen, then property will gonna rise pretty soon, esp when teh subprime psychological effect gets replaced by teh beijing olympic, f1 fever and most importantly, the US elections whipping up positive sentiments..

[Unregistered]

prices not dropping cuz rental not dropping.. who wanna sell at low price if can hole by renting out to pay mortgage? wanna wait for price crash, ask all those foreigners dun come singapore and rent.. issit happening? is rental crashing or gonna crash?

if u think that not gonna happen, then property will gonna rise pretty soon, esp when teh subprime psychological effect gets replaced by teh beijing olympic, f1 fever and most importantly, the US elections whipping up positive sentiments..
BEIJING FLOP.... F1 FLOP ....PITY ON MORONS DEPENDING ON SPORTS AND GAMBLING TO MAKE ECONOMY WORK

[Unregistered]

Property market. RIP.
Onlookers. Watched in glee.
Indirect culprit. Inflation.
Direct victim. Stagflation.
Show. Ended.
Wounds. Tended.

[Unregistered]

It can be 20 signs instead of 7.

[Unregistered]

Peaked Peaked Peaked
Analysts say it has peaked
Desperate flippers get freaked
Because they realised that the news has leaked
Now on to the exits as fast as they could bolt
Beacuse no question of their units ever being sold
Mayhem all over as they rush
Fellow flippers will they crush?
Thud Thud Thud Splash Splash Splash
It is all over in a flash

YES YES I SAW THE RUSH. THOUGHT IT WAS DRIVERS TRYING TO BEAT THE ERP TIME .....BUT NOOOOO WAS SPECULATORS FLEEING AS FAST AS THEY COULD.

[Unregistered]

The Maddog/tigersee already committed suicide after the URA index came up that property prices rose by 4.2% in Q1 2008, on top of 6.8% in Q4 2007.

That was his last post.

Analysts say private home sales have peaked

By Ng Baoying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 07 April 2008 2347 hrs


SINGAPORE: Sales of private properties have been sliding amid a standoff between buyers and sellers, say market watchers.

In February, sales for new launches were only one tenth of the record numbers seen in August last year......................................................

Last year, property launches drew a crowd despite the extravagant price tags. But now, the market is paying for it in more ways than one. Prices are coming off their highs, leaving some buyers with significant losses........

................................................................

While URA flash estimates showed private property prices increased 4.2 per cent in the first quarter, the rise was only for a handful of properties.

...................................................................................

Oh the 4.2% deceives some speculators........

[Unregistered]

Oh the 4.2% deceives some speculators........

A lot of speculators keep mentioning that the price index went up by 4.2% just show that they are just too naive. There can be just 2 transactions selling high above valuations for the whole quarter and the index will still be going up. Always look beyond, dun just read from surface.

[Unregistered]

A lot of speculators keep mentioning that the price index went up by 4.2% just show that they are just too naive. There can be just 2 transactions selling high above valuations for the whole quarter and the index will still be going up. Always look beyond, dun just read from surface.


Agree.
What even worst is those buyers dont even pay attention to those good remarks anymore.

The buy MOOD is just not there and they had enough of all this bullshit.

Those discounted condos will soon cause chain reaction. I started to see its happening now just buy looking at the offering price.

[Unregistered]

Agree.
What even worst is those buyers dont even pay attention to those good remarks anymore.

The buy MOOD is just not there and they had enough of all this bullshit.

Those discounted condos will soon cause chain reaction. I started to see its happening now just buy looking at the offering price.

Correction should be "asking price"

[Unregistered]

A lot of speculators keep mentioning that the price index went up by 4.2% just show that they are just too naive. There can be just 2 transactions selling high above valuations for the whole quarter and the index will still be going up. Always look beyond, dun just read from surface.

I am sure if the index had gone down, then you would have wholeheartedly agreed with it.

Unfortunately, up means up. Even if it is only 2 transactions, up = up.

[Unregistered]

Agree.
What even worst is those buyers dont even pay attention to those good remarks anymore.

The buy MOOD is just not there and they had enough of all this bullshit.

Those discounted condos will soon cause chain reaction. I started to see its happening now just buy looking at the offering price.


Correction should be "asking price"

"will soon cause a chain reaction"?

You have been saying that since July last year when the sub prime started.

"soon" is how "soon"?

[Unregistered]

I am sure if the index had gone down, then you would have wholeheartedly agreed with it.

Unfortunately, up means up. Even if it is only 2 transactions, up = up.

If the index has gone down and there are only 2 transactions, i will still not agree that the index is really going down.

If you think is up then is up, up to you one.

[Unregistered]

If the index has gone down and there are only 2 transactions, i will still not agree that the index is really going down.

If you think is up then is up, up to you one.
Yes brother, you can stay looking up and licking your wonds.

[Unregistered]

Yes brother, you can stay looking up and licking your wonds.
WITH THE DROPPING MARKET MADDOG/TIGERSEE IS NOWHERE TO BE SEEN. LICKING HIS WOUNDS I GUESS.

[urpas]

prices not dropping cuz rental not dropping.. who wanna sell at low price if can hole by renting out to pay mortgage? wanna wait for price crash, ask all those foreigners dun come singapore and rent.. issit happening? is rental crashing or gonna crash?

if u think that not gonna happen, then property will gonna rise pretty soon, esp when teh subprime psychological effect gets replaced by teh beijing olympic, f1 fever and most importantly, the US elections whipping up positive sentiments..


I am a foreigner, I am going to mvoe to costa del sol in 2 weeks, paying SGD4k per month for 3BR, 1313 sqft, block 70. it is 20% lower than what landlord's agent asking initially, SGD4.8k, when we started negotiation 2 weeks ago. My agent said that's good proce, but i dont know...I rented rather lower floor, probably higher floor slightly more expensive. My agent said that rental market has come down, but not much 5%-10%, some are still stagnant, but no increase in the last two months; some landlord cant stand to let their unit vacant without yielding anything for weeks, some almost 2 months unoccupied. But, it doesnt come down much since 2nd tier condo, like costa del sol, got spill over demand from those downgrade from tier1 condo in orchard area, which he said have more problem in renting out the unit quickly now. but, i dont know.

[Unregistered]

I am a foreigner, I am going to mvoe to costa del sol in 2 weeks, paying SGD4k per month for 3BR, 1313 sqft, block 70. it is 20% lower than what landlord's agent asking initially, SGD4.8k, when we started negotiation 2 weeks ago. My agent said that's good proce, but i dont know...I rented rather lower floor, probably higher floor slightly more expensive. My agent said that rental market has come down, but not much 5%-10%, some are still stagnant, but no increase in the last two months; some landlord cant stand to let their unit vacant without yielding anything for weeks, some almost 2 months unoccupied. But, it doesnt come down much since 2nd tier condo, like costa del sol, got spill over demand from those downgrade from tier1 condo in orchard area, which he said have more problem in renting out the unit quickly now. but, i dont know.
You should get it at 3K.

[Unregistered]

April 8, 2008

Fewer home loans taken up as property market cools further

By Grace Ng, Finance Correspondent


THE number of home loans taken up has fallen sharply in recent months as the property market continues to contract.

Only 4,200 new home loans were approved in January, up about 13 per cent on the 3,722 in December but down 21 per cent from the peak of 5,319 last August.

The Credit Bureau of Singapore figures also show that 2,544 second mortgages were taken up in January, a 31 per cent drop from the high of 3,698, also last August.

'We expect the growth in new mortgages to slow further this year,' said Credit Bureau general manager Mark Rowley.

Inquiries for new home loans have also dropped, down to 8,923 in February, the lowest since April 2006.

Mr Gregory Chan, OCBC Bank's head of consumer secured lending, said: 'We have observed that property buyers are becoming more cautious in their purchase decisions.'

United Overseas Bank's (UOB's) head of loans, Mr Kevin Lam, said that 'in line with property sales transactions, our loan applications were slower in January and February' but there was 'a pick-up in market activity at the end of March'.

His counterpart at HSBC Singapore, Ms Alice Chia, said the bank has 'seen a reduction in applications for new home loans, which is reflective of sentiment towards the property market'.


THERE GOES THE PROPERTY MARKET....ILL, DEAD AND BURIED. REST IN PEACE.

[Unregistered]

Only 4,200 new home loans were approved in January, up about 13 per cent on the 3,722 in December but down 21 per cent from the peak of 5,319 last August.

United Overseas Bank's (UOB's) head of loans, Mr Kevin Lam, said that 'in line with property sales transactions, our loan applications were slower in January and February' but there was 'a pick-up in market activity at the end of March'


THERE GOES THE PROPERTY MARKET....ILL, DEAD AND BURIED. REST IN PEACE.
The property market still very healthy wat ...

Got 4,200 home loans approved in January, only 21% below the "peak of 5,319 last August".

Unlike what the sour grapes here kept saying "No Buyers".

Furthermore, there is a 'a pick-up in market activity at the end of March'.

Looks like the property market will bury the sour grapes yet again.

[Unregistered]

The property market still very healthy wat ...

Got 4,200 home loans approved in January, only 21% below the "peak of 5,319 last August".

Unlike what the sour grapes here kept saying "No Buyers".

Furthermore, there is a 'a pick-up in market activity at the end of March'.

Looks like the property market will bury the sour grapes yet again.
HEALTHY HEALTHY HEALTHY
SCREAMS THE NOT SO WEALTHY
SAYS CRASHED BY 21% ONLY
SOMETIMES THE MORONS ARE VERY FUNNY
THE WISE SAY NO BUYERS ALREADY
AND MARKET GOING DOWN UNDER VERILY
SITUATION BY THE DAY GETTING MORE DEADLY
FINALLY...MORONS WILL DIE SCREAMING HEALTHY HEALTHY HEALTHY
BECAUSE UNITS OUT THERE WITH NO BUYERS IN PLENTY!!!

[Unregistered]

http://www.straitstimes.com/Free/Story/STIStory_225216.html

April 9, 2008
Prices of high-end condos starting to fall as sales dwindle
Downward trend may continue for next few quarters, experts predict
By Fiona Chan, Property Reporter

HOME prices are starting to fall, as several high-end properties begin to feel the squeeze of retreating buyers.
Sales of Singapore's most expensive condominiums - all the rage last year - have dwindled to just a trickle this year.

And with plunging sales, prices have also started to dip, although official figures have yet to reflect this trend.

Early signs of the slide lie in the handful of caveats filed involving many luxury projects in the first quarter. These showed prices fell from the previous quarter, in some cases by up to 20 per cent.

In Districts 9 to 11, Singapore's creme de la creme of residential locations covering Orchard, Holland and Bukit Timah, average prices have fallen by about 30 per cent since the beginning of the year, according to caveats.

They dropped to an average of $1,564 per sq ft (psf) between January and March from $2,023 psf in the preceding three months.

FEELING THE SQUEEZE
In luxury island enclave Sentosa Cove, almost all condos posted drops in average psf prices, ranging from 2 per cent for the Marina Collection to 23 per cent for The Azure.

Property experts say this could be because luxury home buyers are now selecting only the most competitively priced properties.

'Market activity is very slow now, so any transactions that do take place are likely to be from people who have found attractive buys,' said Mrs Ong Choon Fah, the executive director at property firm DTZ Debenham Tie Leung.

She said high-end properties in the traditional prime districts were more dependent on investor buying, so they could be more affected by the current global credit crunch and weaker sentiment.

'A lot of people who bought luxury homes are also 'specuvestors', so they may be happy making just a small profit and selling quickly,' Mrs Ong explained.

The Government estimated last week that private home prices continued to climb in the first three months of the year, albeit at a slower pace. They rose 4.2 per cent, down from 6.8 per cent in the previous three months.

In the priciest segment, the core central region, the price gain dropped to 4.4 per cent from 7.5 per cent in the previous quarter. This region covers Districts 9 to 11, the Marina Bay area and Sentosa.

Anecdotal evidence from property insiders and caveats lodged, however, showed that prices at many projects fell rather than rose this year. At Scotts Square in Scotts Road, only two units have been sold so far this year - at an average price of $3,700 psf, down from $4,000 psf for 42 units in last year's fourth quarter.

Similarly, at The Oceanfront @ Sentosa Cove, the most recent deals were in February, where three units were sold at $1,720 to $1,751 psf. Just six months before that, 15 units were sold at an average price of $2,480 psf.

Other high-profile, pricey condos, such as the Marina Bay Residences and The Marq on Paterson Hill, have yet to see a single caveat lodged this year.

But the story is not all bad. The Orchard Residences, which holds the title of Singapore's most expensive condo, has sold only one unit this year - but at $4,700 psf, higher than most of its other sales.

Other older condos in areas such as Cavenagh or Balmoral may also be trading at higher prices from their previously low base, pushing up the overall prices for the whole district, suggested Mr Ku Swee Yong, director of marketing and business development at Savills Singapore.

But he said the price index for high-end homes may be under pressure in the next two quarters, now that 'everyone wants a bargain'.

'You only need developers to start giving discounts or people starting to buy lower-

floor units instead of penthouses. That will push the index down and put pressure on prices.'

[email protected]
http://www.straitstimes.com/STI/STIMEDIA/pdf/20080409/squeee.pdf

[Unregistered]

NO SIGN OF THE SPECULATORS.....THEY ARE FINISHED!!! MAD RUSH AT THE EXITS....OTHERS PLEASE AVOID THE EXITS....SPECULATORS FLEEING...WATCH OUT FOR YOUR OWN SAFETY.

[Unregistered]

NO SIGN OF THE SPECULATORS.....THEY ARE FINISHED!!! MAD RUSH AT THE EXITS....OTHERS PLEASE AVOID THE EXITS....SPECULATORS FLEEING...WATCH OUT FOR YOUR OWN SAFETY.
Looking back I regret having ridiculed you and not having followed your advice to get out of the market back in October. I am trying to get whatever is left since I trust that you are good at predicting about the market. Back in August you said it was falling and I didn't trust you then. See what bad state I am in today. Please send me contact detail so I can take some advice. Once again thank you so much.

[Unregistered]

Looking back I regret having ridiculed you and not having followed your advice to get out of the market back in October. I am trying to get whatever is left since I trust that you are good at predicting about the market. Back in August you said it was falling and I didn't trust you then. See what bad state I am in today. Please send me contact detail so I can take some advice. Once again thank you so much.

Originally Posted by Unregistered
NO SIGN OF THE SPECULATORS.....THEY ARE FINISHED!!! MAD RUSH AT THE EXITS....OTHERS PLEASE AVOID THE EXITS....SPECULATORS FLEEING...WATCH OUT FOR YOUR OWN SAFETY.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
Looking back I regret having ridiculed you and not having followed your advice to get out of the market back in October. I am trying to get whatever is left since I trust that you are good at predicting about the market. Back in August you said it was falling and I didn't trust you then. See what bad state I am in today. Please send me contact detail so I can take some advice. Once again thank you so much.


You know what, I have the feeling you are actually the same person posting the above quote. ( NO SIGN OF THE SPECULATORS.....THEY ARE FINISHED!!! MAD RUSH AT THE EXITS....OTHERS PLEASE AVOID THE EXITS....SPECULATORS FLEEING...WATCH OUT FOR YOUR OWN SAFETY.).
Please do not try to act (both characters). We are no fools.

[Unregistered]

Credit Crisis to Worsen Before Improving, Soros Says

By Patricia Kuo and Bei Hu

April 10 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire George Soros said the global credit crisis will get worse before it gets better.

Soros, who said lack of oversight is partly responsible for problems in the financial markets, criticized regulators and the U.S. administration for not ``responding fully enough.'' He was speaking on a teleconference call with reporters today.

The world's biggest banks have recorded $232 billion in asset writedowns and credit losses since the beginning of 2007, including reserves set aside for bad loans. The Federal Reserve has engaged in the most aggressive rate cuts in the past 40 years in an attempt to forestall losses in the credit and equity markets.

``Authorities have not accepted the responsibilities to try to control asset bubbles from going too far,'' Soros said. Recently established markets, including for credit-default swaps, are ``totally unregulated, that's the cause of the troubles.''

Credit-default swaps, contracts designed to protect investors against default and used to speculate on credit quality, grew 49 percent to cover a notional $43 trillion of debt in the six months ended June 30, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

The market for derivatives grew at the fastest pace in at least nine years to $516 trillion in the first half of 2007, the BIS said in a report. Money at risk through credit-default swaps increased 145 percent from last year to $721 billion, according to the BIS, which was formed in 1930 to monitor financial markets and regulate banks.

``I think it's a pretty accurate estimate of the loan losses,'' Soros said. ``But we have not yet seen the full effect of possible recession.''

Mistrust in Markets

Uncertainty about the ability of investors and traders to meet contract obligations is creating ``mistrust'' in the markets that ``will not be fully cleared up until you have a regulated delivery mechanism and oversight over this market,'' he said.

Morgan Stanley Chief Executive Officer John Mack said on April 8 that the credit crisis will last a couple of quarters longer and that the markets are facing the most difficult conditions he's seen in 40 years.

Soros said the crisis will last longer than authorities predict.

``They claim that there will be a pickup in the second half of the year,'' he said. ``I cannot believe that. I don't see any reason to believe it because it will take much longer for the full effect of the decline in the housing market to be felt.''

Total losses for banks, hedge funds, pension funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds may swell to $945 billion, the International Monetary Fund said in a report on April 8.

``This is a man-made crisis and it's made by this false belief that markets correct their own excesses,'' Soros said. ``That's the job of the regulators. And the regulators failed to perform their job.''

Separately, Soros said China was not immune to worldwide market conditions. China's inflation has peaked and may be abating, he said.

[Unregistered]

Originally Posted by Unregistered
NO SIGN OF THE SPECULATORS.....THEY ARE FINISHED!!! MAD RUSH AT THE EXITS....OTHERS PLEASE AVOID THE EXITS....SPECULATORS FLEEING...WATCH OUT FOR YOUR OWN SAFETY.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
Looking back I regret having ridiculed you and not having followed your advice to get out of the market back in October. I am trying to get whatever is left since I trust that you are good at predicting about the market. Back in August you said it was falling and I didn't trust you then. See what bad state I am in today. Please send me contact detail so I can take some advice. Once again thank you so much.


You know what, I have the feeling you are actually the same person posting the above quote. ( NO SIGN OF THE SPECULATORS.....THEY ARE FINISHED!!! MAD RUSH AT THE EXITS....OTHERS PLEASE AVOID THE EXITS....SPECULATORS FLEEING...WATCH OUT FOR YOUR OWN SAFETY.).
Please do not try to act (both characters). We are no fools.
RUSH OUT NOW.....THE TSUNAMI IS COMING....WILL SWEEP YOU AWAY.....

[Unregistered]

Credit Crisis to Worsen Before Improving, Soros Says

By Patricia Kuo and Bei Hu

April 10 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire George Soros said the global credit crisis will get worse before it gets better.

Soros, who said lack of oversight is partly responsible for problems in the financial markets, criticized regulators and the U.S. administration for not ``responding fully enough.'' He was speaking on a teleconference call with reporters today.

The world's biggest banks have recorded $232 billion in asset writedowns and credit losses since the beginning of 2007, including reserves set aside for bad loans. The Federal Reserve has engaged in the most aggressive rate cuts in the past 40 years in an attempt to forestall losses in the credit and equity markets.

``Authorities have not accepted the responsibilities to try to control asset bubbles from going too far,'' Soros said. Recently established markets, including for credit-default swaps, are ``totally unregulated, that's the cause of the troubles.''

Credit-default swaps, contracts designed to protect investors against default and used to speculate on credit quality, grew 49 percent to cover a notional $43 trillion of debt in the six months ended June 30, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

The market for derivatives grew at the fastest pace in at least nine years to $516 trillion in the first half of 2007, the BIS said in a report. Money at risk through credit-default swaps increased 145 percent from last year to $721 billion, according to the BIS, which was formed in 1930 to monitor financial markets and regulate banks.

``I think it's a pretty accurate estimate of the loan losses,'' Soros said. ``But we have not yet seen the full effect of possible recession.''

Mistrust in Markets

Uncertainty about the ability of investors and traders to meet contract obligations is creating ``mistrust'' in the markets that ``will not be fully cleared up until you have a regulated delivery mechanism and oversight over this market,'' he said.

Morgan Stanley Chief Executive Officer John Mack said on April 8 that the credit crisis will last a couple of quarters longer and that the markets are facing the most difficult conditions he's seen in 40 years.

Soros said the crisis will last longer than authorities predict.

``They claim that there will be a pickup in the second half of the year,'' he said. ``I cannot believe that. I don't see any reason to believe it because it will take much longer for the full effect of the decline in the housing market to be felt.''

Total losses for banks, hedge funds, pension funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds may swell to $945 billion, the International Monetary Fund said in a report on April 8.

``This is a man-made crisis and it's made by this false belief that markets correct their own excesses,'' Soros said. ``That's the job of the regulators. And the regulators failed to perform their job.''

Separately, Soros said China was not immune to worldwide market conditions. China's inflation has peaked and may be abating, he said.
###############################################
GEORGE SOROS
And the worst financial market crisis in 60 years
by Clif Droke
March 12, 2008

"Blood in the streets” is the central theme of the financial news lately. Barely a day goes by without a barrage of bad news hitting investors like a runaway freight train. In just the past few weeks in the Financial Times newspaper we see the following headlines:

These are a mere sampling of the bearish media sentiment out there right now.

My favorite of these headlines as shown in the above “fear collage” is the one that says, “The worst market crisis in 60 years.” It was written by George Soros of Soros Fund fame. I consider this a key sentiment indicator, for whenever the mainstream financial press trots out the big dogs like Soros, Buffett, et al, to remind us all of the obvious – after the trend has pretty much played out – it’s time to start looking in the other direction.

This time is no exception as Soros has told us nothing that virtually everyone has already has been told by the media ad nauseum, namely: the credit expansion got out of hand and resulted in a real estate bust, “market-neutral hedge funds turned out to be not market-neutral and had to be unwound,” credit expansion “must now be followed by a period of contraction,” “Investment banks’ commitments to leverage buyouts became liabilities,” “the U.S. Federal Reserve…may no longer be in a position to [avoid a recession],” “If federal funds were lowered beyond a certain point, the dollar would come under renewed pressure and long-term bonds would actually go up in yield,” “a recession in the developed world is now more or less inevitable,” “China, India and some of the oil-producing countries are in a very strong countertrend,” and finally, “The danger is that the resulting political tensions…may disrupt the global economy and plunge the world into recession or worse.” (I like his use of the term “recession or worse.” Kind of remind me of the famous phrase, “We could all be killed…or worse!”)

Well, Mr. Soros, are there any other media-propagated myths and clichés you’d care to throw our way to enlighten us poor peasants? I couldn’t help but chuckle after reading this editorial: it’s like reading every bearish editorial and article of the past year all rolled up into a single unit. If any of you would like a re-cap of the past year’s fears, I highly recommend reading Mr. Soros’ editorial. (Who knows, you may even become a convert to the Financial Armageddon Now! cause yourself.)

Of course it would be foolish to suggest that Soros is less than informed on the true state of affairs within the U.S. financial system. One doesn’t become a billionaire by being financially inept. What I am suggesting is that Soros is being less than truthful. A poker player doesn’t reveal his hand for all to see. A financier doesn’t make is billions by telling everyone what he’s betting his money on. Poker players are masters of the art of bluffing and so is Soros. If Soros is telling the world that he’s taking the bearish bet, you can bet your bottom dollar he has a bullish ace in the hole he’s not telling you about. This is how the game is played, my friends.

Fundamental and technical analysts and financial pundits of all stripes are busy wracking their brains trying to analyze the deluge of negative news. Yet the single most reliable method of news analysis is being grossly ignored by almost everyone. The analysis I’m referring to is what I like to call “Granville analysis.” Granville analysis is based on Joe Granville’s classic observation, “The obvious is obviously wrong.”

It’s so simple to perform Granville analysis that anyone with a modicum of common sense can do it. Here’s how it works: simply make a list of all the bearish or super pessimistic news headlines concerning the economic and financial market outlook. Instead of taking these headlines at face value, make a cumulative index and add together all the headlines from the mainstream media that agree with each other. Then apply Granville’s Golden Rule to each one. Each time you see a super bearish headline, remind yourself that everyone else already knows and believes this to be true and the value of commonly believed information is exceedingly small. Remember at all times Granville’s Golden Rule, “The obvious is obviously wrong.”

Another way of phrasing this observation is found in Laszlo Birinyi’s famous “Cyrano Principle,” which states: “If the concerns of the market are as obvious as the nose on your face, the market and monetary policy makers will have an amazing ability to adapt and adjust.”

Next we have the weekend edition of the Financial Times, dateline Jan. 27. The front page proclaims, “The week that shook the world: How the markets went to hell and back.” This immediately brings to mind the same exact terminology used during the last major correction low on August 16, 2007. I remember reading an article in the Times from that correction bottom in August and a New York floor trader was quoted as saying, “It’s like the market went screaming into hell, then turned back after it didn’t like what it saw.” It would seem then that whenever the use of the highly emotive term “hell” is used in connection with a financial crisis, an internal market low has been reached.

Here are some more headlines from recent editions of the Times to underscore the emotional nature of this panic bottom: “Five days of turmoil and more volatility to come,” “’It felt like the market had fallen off a cliff’,” and “Potential for more thrills and spills.”

Several super bearish headline stories have already appeared on the front covers of the major U.S. news magazines. These are the type of stories that appear only once every few years, not just at short-term lows. They mark significant intermediate-to-longer-term lows.

One of the best measures of contrarian sentiment I’ve seen yet is found in a recent issue of Business Week. It shows page after page of cartoon graphics featuring a bear, implying that we’re in a bear market. On page 24 the feature article begins, “How real was the prosperity?” It shows a picture of an over-inflated Uncle Sam character, representing the U.S. economy and stock market, being attacked by an angry bear with his claws bared.

On page 28 the headline reads, “What could cage the bear?” The graphic depicts Uncle Sam trying to push the defiant bear into a cage. On page 32 we are greeted by the headline, “Too big to fail” in reference to the banks. The cartoon shows Uncle Sam trying desperately to keep a bank building from being toppled by the angry bear, who has the upper hand in the struggle.

The headline on page 36 is “Looking for a quick fix” and shows Uncle Sam grappling with the bear. In reference to this question, BW responds “What would Washington’s consumer stimulus package buy? Not much more than a little time.”

Last week I received the following e-mail:

“He was just spotted by me on the cover of CBS Marketwatch homepage Fri 523P CST. Will he make to the cover of Time, Newsweek , or Biz Week for Monday?”

The reference was to this growling grizzly shown below. It couldn’t have come at a better time (from a contrarian’s perspective)!



So there you have it, mainstream media sentiment in microcosm. The sentiment couldn’t be any more bearish right now. Everyone is talking about recession and more financial turmoil as if it’s inevitable. That by itself is an indication that the stock market has already priced in the worst and an interim bottoming process is well underway.


© 2008 Clif Droke
Editorial Archive

Clif Droke
P.O. Box 3401
Topsail Beach, N.C. 28445-9831 USA
Website l Email

[Unregistered]

###############################################
GEORGE SOROS
And the worst financial market crisis in 60 years
by Clif Droke
March 12, 2008

"Blood in the streets” is the central theme of the financial news lately. Barely a day goes by without a barrage of bad news hitting investors like a runaway freight train. In just the past few weeks in the Financial Times newspaper we see the following headlines:

..........
..........

So there you have it, mainstream media sentiment in microcosm. The sentiment couldn’t be any more bearish right now. Everyone is talking about recession and more financial turmoil as if it’s inevitable. That by itself is an indication that the stock market has already priced in the worst and an interim bottoming process is well underway.


© 2008 Clif Droke
Editorial Archive

Clif Droke
P.O. Box 3401
Topsail Beach, N.C. 28445-9831 USA
Website l Email
An interim bottoming process is well underway? Cool!

[Unregistered]

An interim bottoming process is well underway? Cool!
Of course! Look! GDP Rebounded by 16.9%!


http://www.afp.com/english/home/imgs/logo.gif
Singapore's GDP Rebounds By 16.9% In Q1
MAS moves to curb inflation as growth rebounds
Agence France-Presse
Singapore
Thursday, 10 April 2008

Singapore's central bank unexpectedly further tightened monetary policy on Thursday, pushing the Singapore dollar to a record high against the U.S. dollar, in a move aimed at keeping a lid on soaring prices.

Singapore's economy grew at an annualised, seasonally adjusted rate of 16.9% in the first quarter, beating economists' expectations, government data showed on Thursday, after a surprise 4.8% contraction in the fourth quarter of 2007.

The data beat a median forecast from economists polled by Reuters for growth of 11.5% because of a recovery in pharmaceutical and electronics manufacturing.

"The GDP figures were stronger than what the market had predicted and that gave the Monetary Authority confidence to tighten the policy," said Joseph Tan, an economist at Fortis.

"Strength of GDP quarter-on-quarter came from domestic sources. Where we go from here is a step in time approach but the one-up shift of the band, as opposed to the steepening of the Singapore dollar, shows that MAS recognises inflation is an imminent danger."

The Monetary Authority of Singapore conducts policy through the exchange rate, steering the Singapore dollar within a secret trade-weighted band against a basket of currencies, rather than by adjusting interest rates.

Growth Support

"Against backdrop of continuing external and domestic cost pressures, an upward shift of the policy band at this point will help to moderate inflation going forward, while providing support for sustainable growth in the economy," the central bank said in a twice-yearly monetary policy statement.

"MAS will therefore re-centre the exchange rate policy band at the prevailing level of the S$NEER. There will be no change to the slope or width of the policy band."

The Singapore dollar hit a record high, up 0.9% on the news to 1.3683 per U.S. dollar. The currency has gained around 5% this year.

Ten out of the 12 economists polled by Reuters had expected the MAS to refrain from tightening monetary policy due to concerns about slower economic growth.

The other two had expected the MAS to tighten policy to fight inflation, which stood at 6.5% in February. In January it hit 6.6%, the highest since March 1982.

The MAS said it expected inflation in the upper half of its 4.5% to 5.5% forecast range this year.

Singapore is one of the first Asian countries to report GDP data each quarter. The health of its exports is seen by analysts as a barometer of demand for Asian goods.

Despite concern about slower global growth, most central banks in Asia have refrained from easing monetary policy due to high inflation.

Some analysts said a stronger Singapore dollar would further cut demand for the island's exports by making them more expensive at a time when demand in the key U.S. market is weakening.

They also said a stronger Singapore dollar may not be as effective as before in reining in inflation because domestic factors such as a tight labour market, high wages and elevated property prices were factors as well.

The MAS tightened policy slightly at its last meeting in October as asset prices spiralled higher.

Singapore's economic growth is largely fuelled by manufacturing of products such as electronics, pharmaceuticals and oil rigs. However, the economy also relies increasingly on tourism, financial services and construction.

[Unregistered]

Lehman Says It Liquidated Three Investment Funds

By Ambereen Choudhury

April 10 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the fourth-largest U.S. securities firm, said it liquidated three investment funds because of ``market disruptions.''

The funds' assets, valued at $1 billion on Feb. 29, were taken onto Lehman's balance sheet, the New-York-based firm said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. The firm also bought ``certain deteriorated assets,'' with a value of $800 million, from other unidentified funds, Lehman said.

``The funds used the cash received from the company to either redeem investors in the funds or make alternative asset investments,'' Lehman said in the filing yesterday.

More than 45 of the world's biggest banks, including Citigroup Inc. and UBS AG, have recorded a combined $232 billion in asset writedowns and credit losses since the beginning of 2007, including reserves set aside for bad loans. Falling U.S. house prices and rising delinquencies may lead to $565 billion in residential mortgage-market losses, the International Monetary Fund said in its annual Global Financial Stability report on April 8. Total losses, including those tied to commercial real estate, may reach $945 billion, the fund said.

Lehman was little changed at $40.52 by 11:26 a.m. in Frankfurt trading, after closing at $40.54 in New York yesterday. The stock has dropped 38 percent this year.

The liquidation of the funds was reported by the Wall Street Journal earlier today.

Further Writedowns Seen

Lehman may write down $2 billion in the second quarter and will face ``difficult'' market conditions this year, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank AG.

``While liquidity seems okay, we continue to expect more writedowns to equity and tougher revenues this year,'' analysts led by New York-based Mike Mayo wrote in a research note yesterday. Deutsche Bank rates the firm ``buy.''

Revenue at Lehman will decline to about the level of 2005, when it totaled $14.6 billion, Mayo wrote. The 2007 net revenue was $19.3 billion. Lehman plans to reduce risk by selling 20 percent of its $75 billion in mortgage assets and cut leverage by the same amount, according to Deutsche Bank.

[Unregistered]

http://www.afp.com/english/home/imgs/logo.gif
Japan current account surplus up 2.9%
Agence France-Presse
Tokyo, Japan
Thursday, 10 April 2008

Japan's current account surplus grew 2.9% in February from a year earlier, as higher income on overseas investments offset slower exports to the US, the government said on Thursday.

The nation with the world's second-largest economy had a surplus of 2.47 trillion yen (S$33.6 billion) in February in the current account, the broadest measure of trade in goods and services, the finance ministry said.

The figure was in line with market expectations.

The trade balance alone fell 6.6% to 1.03 trillion yen. Exports rose 9.0% to 6.67 trillion yen, while imports increased 12.5% to 5.63 trillion yen.

Although exports to the United States have been curbed by the US economic turmoil, shipments to Europe and the rest of Asia remain robust, the government said.

The services account deficit widened to 152.0 billion yen from 84.5 billion yen from a year earlier.

The surplus in the income account increased to almost 1.68 trillion yen from 1.47 trillion yen, as firms and households enjoyed higher returns on overseas investments.

The capital and financial account, which measures international fund flows, registered an outflow of 2.62 trillion yen compared to 1.76 trillion yen a year earlier.

Historically, Japan has run a large surplus in its current account, which measures the flow of goods, services and investment income.

Although Japan's economy was seen recovering from a slump stretching back more than a decade, sluggish consumer spending and fallout from the US credit market crisis is expected to slow Asia's largest economy this year.
Ah! That's the way.

[Unregistered]

http://www.thomson.com/images/misc/logo_thomson.gif
Singapore's Q1 GDP growth beats forecast on strong manufacturing sector
Thomson Financial
Singapore
Thursday, 10 April 2008, 02:44 GMT

Singapore's economy expanded at a forecast-beating 7.2% in the first quarter from a year earlier, led by a double-digit rebound in manufacturing, advance estimates by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MIT) showed Thursday.

Economists polled by Thomson Financial were expecting an average 6.4% rise in the first quarter, with forecasts ranging from 5.2% to 7.8%. Growth in the fourth quarter was at 5.4%.

Seasonally adjusted, growth was much more robust at 16.9%, rebounding from the fourth quarter's 4.8% contraction, the ministry said.

"This was line with expectations of a rebound after weakness in the fourth quarter, which has been concentrated in manufacturing. They were assuming healthy manufacturing numbers in March but this does not alter the basic story [that there will be] moderation in growth in 2008," said David Cohen, chief economist at Action Economics.

The advance estimates by the ministry were based on available economic data for the first two months of the quarter.

According to the estimates, the manufacturing sector expanded by 13.2% in the first quarter from a year ago, sharply higher than the 0.2% growth in the fourth quarter, with biomedical output recovering from a slump.

"The rest of the manufacturing clusters also enjoyed a better performance in the first quarter, with the exception of the transport engineering and precision engineering clusters, where growth moderated," the government said.

Activity in the construction sector gained pace to double-digit levels but is expected to moderate from the strong fourth quarter.

The construction sector expanded by 14.6%, compared with 24.3% growth in the fourth quarter.

Growth in service industries continued to expand, led by financial services, but may have slightly moderated to 7.6% from 7.7% in the fourth quarter based on MTI's estimates.

The strong GDP numbers provided the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), the city-state's de facto central bank, the leeway to tighten its foreign exchange policy to tackle soaring inflation.

The consumer price index (CPI) in Singapore was up 6.6% in January, a 25-year high, with just a slight moderation to 6.5% in February.

The MAS said on Thursday it is re-centering its policy band at the current strong level of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (NEER).

"They [MAS] seem like they are pretty confident that things are holding up nicely," said Cohen.

The MAS is still predicting GDP growth this year of between 4% and 6%, although growth is expected to ease in the next few quarters, while inflation is expected to be at the upper end of the central bank's forecast range of 4.5% to 5.5%.

"The [economic] outlook is still dependent on the global picture, which remains uncertain. Everyone is still nervous about the U.S. economy and how much it will drag down global demand," said Cohen.
Cheong ah!