Just 2 bids for Ten Mile Junction site

[mr funny]

Published April 4, 2008

Just 2 bids for Ten Mile Junction site

Kheng Leong unit offers $162.40 psf ppr; Sim Lian Land, $121.60 psf ppr

By ARTHUR SIM


THE public tender for an unusual development site at Choa Chu Kang Road and Woodlands Road has closed with just two bids received.

The site, on which the state-owned Ten Mile Junction currently sits, received a bid of $61 million or about $162.40 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr) from Peak Green Pte Ltd.

The company is understood to be linked to Kheng Leong, the privately owned property group controlled by the family of banker Wee Cho Yaw.

The second, lower bid of $45.68 million, or $121.60 psf ppr, was put in by Sim Lian Land.

Earlier estimates had put the value of the site at between $200 psf ppr and $250 psf ppr.

Savills Singapore director of marketing and business development Ku Swee Yong said that he was surprised by the lower-than-expected bid, but added that rising construction costs may have been a factor.

Recently, a development site at Jurong West was not awarded because the highest bid received was considered to be too low by the government.

But while Mr Ku did not know if the higher bid for the Ten Mile Junction site would top the reserve price for the site, he said: 'I think the site should be awarded.'

'This area is very local and I believe the household incomes are lower,' he added.

Knight Frank director of research and consultancy Nicholas Mak noted that the current bid is one of the lowest in recent years.

'The previous time when land tender bids of below $200 psf ppr were submitted was in the period from 2000 to 2002.

'But during that period, the government did sell some of the sites at prices below $200 psf ppr.'

On whether the Ten Mile Junction site would be awarded, Mr Mak said that it depended on whether market conditions were the same as those during 2000-2002. 'There is a 50/50 chance,' he added.

The site, which has a residential potential gross floor area of 254,394 sq ft, could have between 200 and 240 apartments.

The existing commercial GFA is 121,191 sq ft.

CB Richard Ellis Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho said that if the site were awarded, the breakeven price for the newly developed residential project will be around $400 psf. This will translate to a possible selling price of about $500 psf.

Units in Yew Tee Residences, a new 99-year leasehold project and Maysprings, the development closest to the subject site, were transacted at $520-550 psf, he noted.

[mr funny]

April 4, 2008

TENDER FOR RESIDENTIAL PLOT

Ten Mile Junction site draws top bid of $61m


THE top bid for a unique 99-year leasehold site in Choa Chu Kang has come in at $61 million, which experts say is within expectations.

The residential site at the junction of Choa Chu Kang Road and Woodlands Road attracted only two bids, with Peak Green, a unit of Peak Properties, which is controlled by the United Overseas Bank's Wee family, leading the way.

Its bid of $61 million values the site at $162 per sq ft (psf) per gross floor area. Sim Lian Land's offer was well back at $45.68 million.

The site has an existing three-storey commercial development - the Ten Mile Junction mall - and was the first residential site above a Light Rapid Transit station offered for sale by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). It has a gross floor area of 254,394 sq ft for residential use, for either flats or service apartments. The mall has a fixed gross floor area of 121,191 sq ft.

The URA said the tender will be awarded once the bids are evaluated.

Knight Frank director of research and consultancy Nicholas Mak said the price was within expectations given the location and nearby amenities.

CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho said that if the site is awarded to Peak Green, the breakeven price will be around $400 psf. This will translate into a possible selling price of about $500 psf for apartments on the site.

NICHOLAS FANG

[Unregistered]

April 4, 2008

TENDER FOR RESIDENTIAL PLOT

Ten Mile Junction site draws top bid of $61m


THE top bid for a unique 99-year leasehold site in Choa Chu Kang has come in at $61 million, which experts say is within expectations.

The residential site at the junction of Choa Chu Kang Road and Woodlands Road attracted only two bids, with Peak Green, a unit of Peak Properties, which is controlled by the United Overseas Bank's Wee family, leading the way.

Its bid of $61 million values the site at $162 per sq ft (psf) per gross floor area. Sim Lian Land's offer was well back at $45.68 million.

The site has an existing three-storey commercial development - the Ten Mile Junction mall - and was the first residential site above a Light Rapid Transit station offered for sale by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). It has a gross floor area of 254,394 sq ft for residential use, for either flats or service apartments. The mall has a fixed gross floor area of 121,191 sq ft.

The URA said the tender will be awarded once the bids are evaluated.

Knight Frank director of research and consultancy Nicholas Mak said the price was within expectations given the location and nearby amenities.

CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho said that if the site is awarded to Peak Green, the breakeven price will be around $400 psf. This will translate into a possible selling price of about $500 psf for apartments on the site.

NICHOLAS FANG


Hahaha, 500psf??? Those people living in Maysprings & The Linear better start lowering their expectations hor...

[mr funny]

Friday, April 4, 2008

Property fever here starting to cool


More signs of Singapore's property market slowing: Tenders for a plot of government development land have closed, attracting one of the lowest bids in recent years.

The residential site bordering Choa Chu Kang Road and Woodlands Road on offer attracted just two bids. The highest offer came from an arm of Peak Properties, which is controlled by the Wee family. It offered $61 million, which works out to just $162 per sq ft (psf) per plot ratio.

Knight Frank research head Nicholas Mak said: "The current bid is one of the lowest in recent years."

The low point came last month when just $78 psf was offered for land in Westwood Avenue. This was rejected by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).

The last time residential land bids fell below $200 psf was between 2000 and 2002, at the height of Singapore's decade-long property slump. It is not yet known whether the URA will accept the Peal Properties' offer.

The Choa Chu Kang Road site can be potentially used to develop up to 240 condominium units or serviced apartments.

This tender may serve as a good benchmark for another nearby site in Choa Chu Kang Drive. Bids for this site close in May. Prices of completed units in nearby Maysprings condominium recently transacted at an average price of $530 to $630 psf.

[Unregistered]

ITS ALL HAPPENING FASSSSSSSSSSSSSSTTTTTT!!!!

[Unregistered]

Hahaha, 500psf??? Those people living in Maysprings & The Linear better start lowering their expectations hor...

Come on, don't be so critical.
An excellent example is Jurong. For the past few years, lots of people are denouncing Lakeshore. Now, it's going to be a different story. These group of people will start eating their words for saying that Lakeshore is not worth a buy. Look how things change so suddenly and quickly with the wave of the magic wand....

[Unregistered]

Come on, don't be so critical.
An excellent example is Jurong. For the past few years, lots of people are denouncing Lakeshore. Now, it's going to be a different story. These group of people will start eating their words for saying that Lakeshore is not worth a buy. Look how things change so suddenly and quickly with the wave of the magic wand....

Would have been better to grow rice there. Atleast can cut imports. Without food how to wave magic wand.

[Unregistered]

Would have been better to grow rice there. Atleast can cut imports. Without food how to wave magic wand.

Wowww....No one has ever thought of having padi fields in Jurong but you did. You are a real genius. I am so proud that you are a fellow citizen.

[Unregistered]

Sorry. Jurong is not "successful" yet. Just an announcement, prior masterplans also got a lot of promises, but none materialise. Not forgetting this is 10-15 years later. Do you want to gamble that far? If you want to buy for stay, you should choose a place you are comfortable with today, not 10 years later.
Come on, don't be so critical.
An excellent example is Jurong. For the past few years, lots of people are denouncing Lakeshore. Now, it's going to be a different story. These group of people will start eating their words for saying that Lakeshore is not worth a buy. Look how things change so suddenly and quickly with the wave of the magic wand....

[Unregistered]

I remember there used to be a Maysprings thread, and the people there were so excited about how much this bid will "increase" the value of their Maysprings apartment at Bukit Panjang. Quite amusing.


Hahaha, 500psf??? Those people living in Maysprings & The Linear better start lowering their expectations hor...

[Unregistered]

I remember there used to be a Maysprings thread, and the people there were so excited about how much this bid will "increase" the value of their Maysprings apartment at Bukit Panjang. Quite amusing.

I remember too. Its biggest draw to date is the future MRT station, supposingly at the doorstep.
But on a separate note, if Jurong and Woodlands regional offices really becomes a reality, Bukit Panjang/Upper Bukit Timah might be worth considering as it is right in the middle of these 2 regional offices. But its going to be a long long time.

[Unregistered]

I remember too. Its biggest draw to date is the future MRT station, supposingly at the doorstep.
But on a separate note, if Jurong and Woodlands regional offices really becomes a reality, Bukit Panjang/Upper Bukit Timah might be worth considering as it is right in the middle of these 2 regional offices. But its going to be a long long time.

You want to buy just buy. Very safe. every single damned thing is going up. there is no reason why property prices, regardless of location, will go down. at most maintain at current prices only what.

[Unregistered]

I think the government should stop releasing more land. Most developers will a decent land bank already and there is a real risk of oversupply....

On a separate note, the soil testing of downtown line has commenced at Upper Bukit Timah. So can see triangular steel structures - near Hilliside, near Hume Park, opp Rail Mall, in front of Methodist church and near Stand Chart.


I remember too. Its biggest draw to date is the future MRT station, supposingly at the doorstep.
But on a separate note, if Jurong and Woodlands regional offices really becomes a reality, Bukit Panjang/Upper Bukit Timah might be worth considering as it is right in the middle of these 2 regional offices. But its going to be a long long time.

[Unregistered]

You want to buy just buy. Very safe. every single damned thing is going up. there is no reason why property prices, regardless of location, will go down. at most maintain at current prices only what.
Agree. Thanks.

[Unregistered]

Need lots of units and outlets for the foreign talents working on jurong island. But don't expect them to earn super-high salaries because they are only engineers.

[Unregistered]

Need lots of units and outlets for the foreign talents working on jurong island. But don't expect them to earn super-high salaries because they are only engineers.

yes, expect them to rent from those afford to buy.

[Unregistered]

Need lots of units and outlets for the foreign talents working on jurong island. But don't expect them to earn super-high salaries because they are only engineers.
They are building dorms for them. Wont rent your small condos.

[Unregistered]

[QUOTE=Unregistered]
Originally Posted by Unregistered
Interesting analysis from Singapore expat forum. What do you guys say? Any views?



Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
Posted: Sat Mar 29, 2008 8:54 pm Post subject: Singapore Property Going Down The Tubes?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I sent my buddy an e-mail asking if it was a good time to buy property in Singapore...

He's a Hong Kong based Asia property analyst for a small successful private investment bank.
He sent me this....(don't shoot me, I'm just the messenger.)

Quote:
Well...I would wait at least another 6 months to a year.

We told clients and investors to sell all Singapore holdings (property, stocks and everything else) in June 2007. We determined that prices would never, ever be higher and were predicting a 15% drop in pricing by March 2008 and 25% drop by June 2008.

Rationale was simple and not rocket science.

#1. There was no demand for housing when the boom started.
The vacancy rates on existing housing were above New York, London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and other major urban market levels. A Singapore property boom made no sense at all.

#2. Singapore GDP...nice impressive numbers. But the growth was 99% construction related. There is no economic growth when the construction boom ends and those numbers are subtracted from the total.

#3. The existing luxury housing vacancy levels in Singapore were adequate to fill the needs of Singaporeans and any possible influx of new senior executives for the next 5 years. Thus, there was no demand for executive luxury housing in the market.

#4. Value for money on Singapore property for foreign investors is not good when compared to other projected growth economies. (several factors are weighed including psf, quality of workmanship, size of economy, projected growth of economy, lifestyle and culture of the market.)

#4. The targeted future population numbers of Singapore are pie in the sky and completely without substance. Singaporeans are not having kids and the demand for jobs in Singapore will be service led lower paying jobs to supply the planned tourism developments. Non of these new inhabitants will be buying or renting condo's, especially in the high-end. And tourists visit, they don't buy or rent.

#5. Singapore is not a supply/demand driven economy. It is a small, managed economy. Thus, the property development plans were lofty, risky, and not based on future real supply/demand realities.

#6. There is a lack of real, transparent, objective information available in the Singapore market about the Singapore market. This leads to investors belief in hype and speculation rather than economic principles.

#7. Global money supplies and markets are taking a beating and will continue to take a beating. The second call on the sub prime products happens this June so more big losses are expected. This will stall or even damage the Singapore economy.

We expect distress sales in the property market to start soon. The high-end rental market is non-existent and the higher % of all unit sales were high-end investment property, speculator driven.
These buyers need "wealthy" renters to subsidize the million dollar mortgages. Most locals cannot afford the rents the market is demanding.
Surveys of multinational companies and banks have indicated that there is no boat-load of expats with a big housing allowance arriving at the Singapore port anytime soon. The new owner is now stuck with 100% of a very expensive monthly mortgage.

Here is an example of one major high-end development I'm following to prove the point. These are some very telling numbers.
600+ units launched
20+ remaining at $2,000 per square foot via the developer.
100+ units previously sold are now for sale privately less than 7 months after launch for $1,300 to $1,600 per square foot.
The reason...no rental income.
That tells me that property owners are willing to admit that market prices are down 25%+ already. Unfortunately, even at a 25% discount, there are no buyers.

Existing Singapore residents are keeping the rental market buoyant due to the fact they sold their old places and are waiting for the prices to drop...OR...waiting for their new unit to be completed. These people are relatively small in overall numbers and definitely not going to rent high end luxury units. They are driving HDB, middle priced housing rents up right now. They are also demanding 12 month leases or even less if they can get it proving that they are waiting to move or sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to drop.

The Singapore property market is massively oversupplied today and more units are on the way. This is not good. This is should be extremely troublesome to anyone who owns property anywhere in that market. The potential valuation losses in the property market could be enormous, especially at the high-end. Overall prices could sink well below SARS levels and this could happen within 6 months to a year.

The short lived property boom was very much like a pyramid scheme.
It was all hype and no substance.
The first guys in are now smoking big cigars.
The last guys in are now left holding the ashtray.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Excellent post and thanks for this , I am cancelling my plans to buy property this year!!!!!!!
QUOTE]

[Unregistered]

Interesting analysis from Singapore expat forum. What do you guys say? Any views?



Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
Posted: Sat Mar 29, 2008 8:54 pm Post subject: Singapore Property Going Down The Tubes?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I sent my buddy an e-mail asking if it was a good time to buy property in Singapore...

He's a Hong Kong based Asia property analyst for a small successful private investment bank.
He sent me this....(don't shoot me, I'm just the messenger.)

Quote:
Well...I would wait at least another 6 months to a year.

We told clients and investors to sell all Singapore holdings (property, stocks and everything else) in June 2007. We determined that prices would never, ever be higher and were predicting a 15% drop in pricing by March 2008 and 25% drop by June 2008.

Rationale was simple and not rocket science.

#1. There was no demand for housing when the boom started.
The vacancy rates on existing housing were above New York, London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and other major urban market levels. A Singapore property boom made no sense at all.

#2. Singapore GDP...nice impressive numbers. But the growth was 99% construction related. There is no economic growth when the construction boom ends and those numbers are subtracted from the total.

#3. The existing luxury housing vacancy levels in Singapore were adequate to fill the needs of Singaporeans and any possible influx of new senior executives for the next 5 years. Thus, there was no demand for executive luxury housing in the market.

#4. Value for money on Singapore property for foreign investors is not good when compared to other projected growth economies. (several factors are weighed including psf, quality of workmanship, size of economy, projected growth of economy, lifestyle and culture of the market.)

#4. The targeted future population numbers of Singapore are pie in the sky and completely without substance. Singaporeans are not having kids and the demand for jobs in Singapore will be service led lower paying jobs to supply the planned tourism developments. Non of these new inhabitants will be buying or renting condo's, especially in the high-end. And tourists visit, they don't buy or rent.

#5. Singapore is not a supply/demand driven economy. It is a small, managed economy. Thus, the property development plans were lofty, risky, and not based on future real supply/demand realities.

#6. There is a lack of real, transparent, objective information available in the Singapore market about the Singapore market. This leads to investors belief in hype and speculation rather than economic principles.

#7. Global money supplies and markets are taking a beating and will continue to take a beating. The second call on the sub prime products happens this June so more big losses are expected. This will stall or even damage the Singapore economy.

We expect distress sales in the property market to start soon. The high-end rental market is non-existent and the higher % of all unit sales were high-end investment property, speculator driven.
These buyers need "wealthy" renters to subsidize the million dollar mortgages. Most locals cannot afford the rents the market is demanding.
Surveys of multinational companies and banks have indicated that there is no boat-load of expats with a big housing allowance arriving at the Singapore port anytime soon. The new owner is now stuck with 100% of a very expensive monthly mortgage.

Here is an example of one major high-end development I'm following to prove the point. These are some very telling numbers.
600+ units launched
20+ remaining at $2,000 per square foot via the developer.
100+ units previously sold are now for sale privately less than 7 months after launch for $1,300 to $1,600 per square foot.
The reason...no rental income.
That tells me that property owners are willing to admit that market prices are down 25%+ already. Unfortunately, even at a 25% discount, there are no buyers.

Existing Singapore residents are keeping the rental market buoyant due to the fact they sold their old places and are waiting for the prices to drop...OR...waiting for their new unit to be completed. These people are relatively small in overall numbers and definitely not going to rent high end luxury units. They are driving HDB, middle priced housing rents up right now. They are also demanding 12 month leases or even less if they can get it proving that they are waiting to move or sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to drop.

The Singapore property market is massively oversupplied today and more units are on the way. This is not good. This is should be extremely troublesome to anyone who owns property anywhere in that market. The potential valuation losses in the property market could be enormous, especially at the high-end. Overall prices could sink well below SARS levels and this could happen within 6 months to a year.

The short lived property boom was very much like a pyramid scheme.
It was all hype and no substance.
The first guys in are now smoking big cigars.
The last guys in are now left holding the ashtray.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Excellent post and thanks for this , I am cancelling my plans to buy property this year!!!!!!!


I am just waiting for the morning to cancell my loan application. Wan can buy soon at 40% less.

[Unregistered]

Why only 2 Bids for 10 Mile Junction site. Hope the market is not slumping. Flippers like us may get whacked.

[Unregistered]

I sent my buddy an e-mail asking if it was a good time to buy property in Singapore...

He's a Hong Kong based Asia property analyst for a small successful private investment bank.
He sent me this....(don't shoot me, I'm just the messenger.)

Quote:
Well...I would wait at least another 6 months to a year.

We told clients and investors to sell all Singapore holdings (property, stocks and everything else) in June 2007. We determined that prices would never, ever be higher and were predicting a 15% drop in pricing by March 2008 and 25% drop by June 2008.

Rationale was simple and not rocket science.

#1. There was no demand for housing when the boom started.
The vacancy rates on existing housing were above New York, London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and other major urban market levels. A Singapore property boom made no sense at all.

#2. Singapore GDP...nice impressive numbers. But the growth was 99% construction related. There is no economic growth when the construction boom ends and those numbers are subtracted from the total.

#3. The existing luxury housing vacancy levels in Singapore were adequate to fill the needs of Singaporeans and any possible influx of new senior executives for the next 5 years. Thus, there was no demand for executive luxury housing in the market.

#4. Value for money on Singapore property for foreign investors is not good when compared to other projected growth economies. (several factors are weighed including psf, quality of workmanship, size of economy, projected growth of economy, lifestyle and culture of the market.)

#4. The targeted future population numbers of Singapore are pie in the sky and completely without substance. Singaporeans are not having kids and the demand for jobs in Singapore will be service led lower paying jobs to supply the planned tourism developments. Non of these new inhabitants will be buying or renting condo's, especially in the high-end. And tourists visit, they don't buy or rent.

#5. Singapore is not a supply/demand driven economy. It is a small, managed economy. Thus, the property development plans were lofty, risky, and not based on future real supply/demand realities.

#6. There is a lack of real, transparent, objective information available in the Singapore market about the Singapore market. This leads to investors belief in hype and speculation rather than economic principles.

#7. Global money supplies and markets are taking a beating and will continue to take a beating. The second call on the sub prime products happens this June so more big losses are expected. This will stall or even damage the Singapore economy.

I have some questions for Mr. Hong Kong Property Analyst, can you be my "messenger" as well.

#1. ChannelNewsAsia on 27 February 2008 reported that "Last year, Singapore saw over 63,000 new PRs, an 11-per-cent increase from 2006; and the city-state also welcomed more than 17,000 new citizens, a 30-per-cent jump."

Every year, we have 63,000 + 17,000 = 80,000 new immigrants, that is not including foreigners who come here on employment pass (but not taking up citizenships or PRs).

What do you mean "no demand for housing"? May I know where these 80,000 people are going to stay? Inside the canals?

In case you are not familiar with Singapore, here is the news URL to our government broadcasting station regarding the news I quoted above.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/331492/1/.html

#2. ChannelNewsAsia reported on 10 August 2007 that Singapore's "Financial services expanded by 17 per cent in the second quarter, up from 14 per cent growth in the first quarter, while the construction sector grew by 18 per cent, the strongest growth in almost 10 years. Growth in the manufacturing sector picked up pace to 8.3 per cent."

No matter how I calculate, I don't know how you arrived at the figure that "growth was 99% construction related."?

In case you are not familiar with Singapore, here is the news URL to our government broadcasting station regarding the news I quoted above.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/293171/1/.html

#3. You said "The existing luxury housing vacancy levels in Singapore were adequate to fill the needs of Singaporeans and any possible influx of new senior executives for the next 5 years. Thus, there was no demand for executive luxury housing in the market."

Then may I ask you what about this person called Jet Li?

Your Hong Kong magazine wrote "Actor Jet Li moved to Singapore last year for his daughters’ education, reported Hong Kong’s Next Magazine recently ... he bought a S$7mil (RM16.1mil) unit at nearby Ardmore Park condominium."

Is Jet Li a "senior executive" from some Multinational Company? Must luxury housing be only for "senior executives"?

Is Jet Li's purchase of Armore Park luxury condominium illegal? Since he is not a "senior executive"?

#4. Can you explain why our "projected growth of economy" is no good?

A MasterCard International survey showed that"Being often touted recently as the next unexplored, potential-filled Asian emerging economy, Vietnam unsurprisingly registered, among the 13 nations surveyed, the highest score of 94.3 points in the MasterIndex of Consumer Confidence (MCC), which ranges from 0 to 100 points, with Taiwan posting the lowest at 29.7 points. Hong Kong came in second position with a score of 85.9 points, closely followed by China and Singapore, which posted 85.5 and 83.6 points, respectively." http://news.cens.com/cens/html/en/news/news_inner_22113.html

Singapore is ranked fourth, after Vietnam (94.3 points), Hong Kong (85.9 points), China (85.5 points) and Singapore (83.6 points).

Singapore is ranked 4th and just 2.3 points behind Hong Kong as the next unexplored, potential-filled Asian emerging economy, why is that considered "no good"?

#4 (You've got two points #4 and this is the second one) You said "Non of these new inhabitants will be buying or renting condo's, especially in the high-end."

Then what about Dr. Sudhir Gupta, "Born in India, moved to Russia to get Ph.D. in agricultural chemistry. Started tire company in Moscow ... Escaped assassination attempt in Moscow 4 years ago; now shuttles between that city and Singapore, where he's a citizen.

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/79/06singapore_Sudhir-Gupta_AHUD.html

He bought a luxury bungalow at Binjai Park for $12.55 million and 22 apartments, including the 63rd-storey penthouse, in the second tower of The Sail @ Marina Bay condo for a total $31 million.

Aren't these properties considered "high end", can you define what is meant by "high end"?

#5. I don't understand your this statement at all "Singapore is not a supply/demand driven economy. It is a small, managed economy. Thus, the property development plans were lofty, risky, and not based on future real supply/demand realities."

This statement totally confounds me so I need you to explain what you mean?

#6. Why do you say that Singapore lacks "real, transparent, objective information available"?

According to Jones Lang LaSelle report on Global Real Estates Transparency, "Highly Transparent countries for the first time in 2006 are Hong Kong, Sweden, France and Singapore, each having jumped to Tier 1 from Tier 2 since the 2004 survey."

http://www.joneslanglasalle.com/en-GB/news/2006/Global+Real+Estate+Markets+Trans.htm

Singapore and Hong Kong both have been promoted from Tier 2 to Tier 1 as "Highly Transparent Countries", together with Sweden and France.

So can you please explain your statement "There is a lack of real, transparent, objective information available in the Singapore market about the Singapore market."?

#7. You predicted that "Global money supplies and markets are taking a beating and will continue to take a beating. The second call on the sub prime products happens this June so more big losses are expected. This will stall or even damage the Singapore economy."

I want to ask, if you are so good at predicting, then last June (just before the sub-prime) did you go short-sell USD100 billion worth of US stock futures contracts through leveraged margin-trading account? Especially short Bear-Stearns shares, then you would be a multi-billionaire by now.

Then why are you still working as a "Asia property analyst for a small successful private investment bank."?

[Unregistered]

I have some questions for Mr. Hong Kong Property Analyst, can you be my "messenger" as well.

#1. ChannelNewsAsia on 27 February 2008 reported that "Last year, Singapore saw over 63,000 new PRs, an 11-per-cent increase from 2006; and the city-state also welcomed more than 17,000 new citizens, a 30-per-cent jump."

Every year, we have 63,000 + 17,000 = 80,000 new immigrants, that is not including foreigners who come here on employment pass (but not taking up citizenships or PRs).

What do you mean "no demand for housing"? May I know where these 80,000 people are going to stay? Inside the canals?

In case you are not familiar with Singapore, here is the news URL to our government broadcasting station regarding the news I quoted above.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/331492/1/.html

#2. ChannelNewsAsia reported on 10 August 2007 that Singapore's "Financial services expanded by 17 per cent in the second quarter, up from 14 per cent growth in the first quarter, while the construction sector grew by 18 per cent, the strongest growth in almost 10 years. Growth in the manufacturing sector picked up pace to 8.3 per cent."

No matter how I calculate, I don't know how you arrived at the figure that "growth was 99% construction related."?

In case you are not familiar with Singapore, here is the news URL to our government broadcasting station regarding the news I quoted above.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/293171/1/.html

#3. You said "The existing luxury housing vacancy levels in Singapore were adequate to fill the needs of Singaporeans and any possible influx of new senior executives for the next 5 years. Thus, there was no demand for executive luxury housing in the market."

Then may I ask you what about this person called Jet Li?

Your Hong Kong magazine wrote "Actor Jet Li moved to Singapore last year for his daughters’ education, reported Hong Kong’s Next Magazine recently ... he bought a S$7mil (RM16.1mil) unit at nearby Ardmore Park condominium."

Is Jet Li a "senior executive" from some Multinational Company? Must luxury housing be only for "senior executives"?

Is Jet Li's purchase of Armore Park luxury condominium illegal? Since he is not a "senior executive"?

#4. Can you explain why our "projected growth of economy" is no good?

A MasterCard International survey showed that"Being often touted recently as the next unexplored, potential-filled Asian emerging economy, Vietnam unsurprisingly registered, among the 13 nations surveyed, the highest score of 94.3 points in the MasterIndex of Consumer Confidence (MCC), which ranges from 0 to 100 points, with Taiwan posting the lowest at 29.7 points. Hong Kong came in second position with a score of 85.9 points, closely followed by China and Singapore, which posted 85.5 and 83.6 points, respectively." http://news.cens.com/cens/html/en/news/news_inner_22113.html

Singapore is ranked fourth, after Vietnam (94.3 points), Hong Kong (85.9 points), China (85.5 points) and Singapore (83.6 points).

Singapore is ranked 4th and just 2.3 points behind Hong Kong as the next unexplored, potential-filled Asian emerging economy, why is that considered "no good"?

#4 (You've got two points #4 and this is the second one) You said "Non of these new inhabitants will be buying or renting condo's, especially in the high-end."

Then what about Dr. Sudhir Gupta, "Born in India, moved to Russia to get Ph.D. in agricultural chemistry. Started tire company in Moscow ... Escaped assassination attempt in Moscow 4 years ago; now shuttles between that city and Singapore, where he's a citizen.

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/79/06singapore_Sudhir-Gupta_AHUD.html

He bought a luxury bungalow at Binjai Park for $12.55 million and 22 apartments, including the 63rd-storey penthouse, in the second tower of The Sail @ Marina Bay condo for a total $31 million.

Aren't these properties considered "high end", can you define what is meant by "high end"?

#5. I don't understand your this statement at all "Singapore is not a supply/demand driven economy. It is a small, managed economy. Thus, the property development plans were lofty, risky, and not based on future real supply/demand realities."

This statement totally confounds me so I need you to explain what you mean?

#6. Why do you say that Singapore lacks "real, transparent, objective information available"?

According to Jones Lang LaSelle report on Global Real Estates Transparency, "Highly Transparent countries for the first time in 2006 are Hong Kong, Sweden, France and Singapore, each having jumped to Tier 1 from Tier 2 since the 2004 survey."

http://www.joneslanglasalle.com/en-GB/news/2006/Global+Real+Estate+Markets+Trans.htm

Singapore and Hong Kong both have been promoted from Tier 2 to Tier 1 as "Highly Transparent Countries", together with Sweden and France.

So can you please explain your statement "There is a lack of real, transparent, objective information available in the Singapore market about the Singapore market."?

#7. You predicted that "Global money supplies and markets are taking a beating and will continue to take a beating. The second call on the sub prime products happens this June so more big losses are expected. This will stall or even damage the Singapore economy."

I want to ask, if you are so good at predicting, then last June (just before the sub-prime) did you go short-sell USD100 billion worth of US stock futures contracts through leveraged margin-trading account? Especially short Bear-Stearns shares, then you would be a multi-billionaire by now.

Then why are you still working as a "Asia property analyst for a small successful private investment bank."?

Arguing facts with facts. Well Done !! Proud that you are a Singaporean.

[Unregistered]

Arguing facts with facts. Well Done !! Proud that you are a Singaporean.

Yes Yes Yes, brother. We need more people like you in this forum. Otherwise , those bunch of sour grapes (in this board or Spore expat) will flood this board with all sort of nonsense.

[Unregistered]

While I am vested in property, I tend to think that there might be a supply glut coming up. Many new citizens are previously PR, so shouldn't double-count as well. Not all PRs buy properties in the end. Many are working here and do intend to go back to their country/other more prestigious countries after their working stints. I hope the government will review their GLS and release less land, because seriously, I don't think the market can absorb that kind of supply - looking at the home sales figures past few years (even with the PR numbers), the massive supply may outstrip demand come 2009. In fact, the impact is somewhat felt today already.


I have some questions for Mr. Hong Kong Property Analyst, can you be my "messenger" as well.

#1. ChannelNewsAsia on 27 February 2008 reported that "Last year, Singapore saw over 63,000 new PRs, an 11-per-cent increase from 2006; and the city-state also welcomed more than 17,000 new citizens, a 30-per-cent jump."

Every year, we have 63,000 + 17,000 = 80,000 new immigrants, that is not including foreigners who come here on employment pass (but not taking up citizenships or PRs).

What do you mean "no demand for housing"? May I know where these 80,000 people are going to stay? Inside the canals?

In case you are not familiar with Singapore, here is the news URL to our government broadcasting station regarding the news I quoted above.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/331492/1/.html

#2. ChannelNewsAsia reported on 10 August 2007 that Singapore's "Financial services expanded by 17 per cent in the second quarter, up from 14 per cent growth in the first quarter, while the construction sector grew by 18 per cent, the strongest growth in almost 10 years. Growth in the manufacturing sector picked up pace to 8.3 per cent."

No matter how I calculate, I don't know how you arrived at the figure that "growth was 99% construction related."?

In case you are not familiar with Singapore, here is the news URL to our government broadcasting station regarding the news I quoted above.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/293171/1/.html

#3. You said "The existing luxury housing vacancy levels in Singapore were adequate to fill the needs of Singaporeans and any possible influx of new senior executives for the next 5 years. Thus, there was no demand for executive luxury housing in the market."

Then may I ask you what about this person called Jet Li?

Your Hong Kong magazine wrote "Actor Jet Li moved to Singapore last year for his daughters’ education, reported Hong Kong’s Next Magazine recently ... he bought a S$7mil (RM16.1mil) unit at nearby Ardmore Park condominium."

Is Jet Li a "senior executive" from some Multinational Company? Must luxury housing be only for "senior executives"?

Is Jet Li's purchase of Armore Park luxury condominium illegal? Since he is not a "senior executive"?

#4. Can you explain why our "projected growth of economy" is no good?

A MasterCard International survey showed that"Being often touted recently as the next unexplored, potential-filled Asian emerging economy, Vietnam unsurprisingly registered, among the 13 nations surveyed, the highest score of 94.3 points in the MasterIndex of Consumer Confidence (MCC), which ranges from 0 to 100 points, with Taiwan posting the lowest at 29.7 points. Hong Kong came in second position with a score of 85.9 points, closely followed by China and Singapore, which posted 85.5 and 83.6 points, respectively." http://news.cens.com/cens/html/en/news/news_inner_22113.html

Singapore is ranked fourth, after Vietnam (94.3 points), Hong Kong (85.9 points), China (85.5 points) and Singapore (83.6 points).

Singapore is ranked 4th and just 2.3 points behind Hong Kong as the next unexplored, potential-filled Asian emerging economy, why is that considered "no good"?

#4 (You've got two points #4 and this is the second one) You said "Non of these new inhabitants will be buying or renting condo's, especially in the high-end."

Then what about Dr. Sudhir Gupta, "Born in India, moved to Russia to get Ph.D. in agricultural chemistry. Started tire company in Moscow ... Escaped assassination attempt in Moscow 4 years ago; now shuttles between that city and Singapore, where he's a citizen.

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/79/06singapore_Sudhir-Gupta_AHUD.html

He bought a luxury bungalow at Binjai Park for $12.55 million and 22 apartments, including the 63rd-storey penthouse, in the second tower of The Sail @ Marina Bay condo for a total $31 million.

Aren't these properties considered "high end", can you define what is meant by "high end"?

#5. I don't understand your this statement at all "Singapore is not a supply/demand driven economy. It is a small, managed economy. Thus, the property development plans were lofty, risky, and not based on future real supply/demand realities."

This statement totally confounds me so I need you to explain what you mean?

#6. Why do you say that Singapore lacks "real, transparent, objective information available"?

According to Jones Lang LaSelle report on Global Real Estates Transparency, "Highly Transparent countries for the first time in 2006 are Hong Kong, Sweden, France and Singapore, each having jumped to Tier 1 from Tier 2 since the 2004 survey."

http://www.joneslanglasalle.com/en-GB/news/2006/Global+Real+Estate+Markets+Trans.htm

Singapore and Hong Kong both have been promoted from Tier 2 to Tier 1 as "Highly Transparent Countries", together with Sweden and France.

So can you please explain your statement "There is a lack of real, transparent, objective information available in the Singapore market about the Singapore market."?

#7. You predicted that "Global money supplies and markets are taking a beating and will continue to take a beating. The second call on the sub prime products happens this June so more big losses are expected. This will stall or even damage the Singapore economy."

I want to ask, if you are so good at predicting, then last June (just before the sub-prime) did you go short-sell USD100 billion worth of US stock futures contracts through leveraged margin-trading account? Especially short Bear-Stearns shares, then you would be a multi-billionaire by now.

Then why are you still working as a "Asia property analyst for a small successful private investment bank."?

[Unregistered]

While I am vested in property, I tend to think that there might be a supply glut coming up. Many new citizens are previously PR, so shouldn't double-count as well. Not all PRs buy properties in the end. Many are working here and do intend to go back to their country/other more prestigious countries after their working stints. I hope the government will review their GLS and release less land, because seriously, I don't think the market can absorb that kind of supply - looking at the home sales figures past few years (even with the PR numbers), the massive supply may outstrip demand come 2009. In fact, the impact is somewhat felt today already.

US is facing the greatest exodus of their ppl in history right now. Many are dumping their house and migrate to Asia and Australia. Singapore is one of their top destinations. They come and they buy houses. There are no better time for Singapore to reap the world top talent massively.

I read a news yesterday that Australia rent is projected to jump up by another 50% this year.

[Unregistered]

While I am vested in property, I tend to think that there might be a supply glut coming up. Many new citizens are previously PR, so shouldn't double-count as well. Not all PRs buy properties in the end. Many are working here and do intend to go back to their country/other more prestigious countries after their working stints. I hope the government will review their GLS and release less land, because seriously, I don't think the market can absorb that kind of supply - looking at the home sales figures past few years (even with the PR numbers), the massive supply may outstrip demand come 2009. In fact, the impact is somewhat felt today already.

US is facing the greatest exodus of their ppl in history right now. Many are dumping their house and migrate to Asia and Australia. Singapore is one of their top destinations. They come and they buy houses. There are no better time for Singapore to reap the world top talent massively.

I read a news yesterday that Australia rent is projected to jump up by another 50% this year. But, I don't know how Singapore rental will increase this year. Any comment?

[Unregistered]

US is facing the greatest exodus of their ppl in history right now. Many are dumping their house and migrate to Asia and Australia. Singapore is one of their top destinations. They come and they buy houses. There are no better time for Singapore to reap the world top talent massively.

I read a news yesterday that Australia rent is projected to jump up by another 50% this year. But, I don't know how Singapore rental will increase this year. Any comment?
Yes my phone hasnt stopped ringing. So many want to buy it after seeing the plan for Jurong. How much should I charge more?

[Unregistered]

While I am vested in property, I tend to think that there might be a supply glut coming up. Many new citizens are previously PR, so shouldn't double-count as well. Not all PRs buy properties in the end. Many are working here and do intend to go back to their country/other more prestigious countries after their working stints. I hope the government will review their GLS and release less land, because seriously, I don't think the market can absorb that kind of supply - looking at the home sales figures past few years (even with the PR numbers), the massive supply may outstrip demand come 2009. In fact, the impact is somewhat felt today already.
Oh I thought the same too but so much supply coming. People have already started offering 20% less for my upmarket flat after reading about the private homes coming with the Jurong development.

[Unregistered]

Yes my phone hasnt stopped ringing. So many want to buy it after seeing the plan for Jurong. How much should I charge more?

U mean Whole of Jurong belongs to u?? wat an idiot.

[Unregistered]

Sorry. Jurong is not "successful" yet. Just an announcement, prior masterplans also got a lot of promises, but none materialise. Not forgetting this is 10-15 years later. Do you want to gamble that far? If you want to buy for stay, you should choose a place you are comfortable with today, not 10 years later.


Bull's eyes! I would not dare bet anything more than 10 years for Singapore. When the MM is no longer around, nobody can guess what's next.

[Unregistered]

My agent says price is moving up 5% since the announcement for Jurong Gateway. Tells me to hold and not to sell now.

[Unregistered]

While I am vested in property, I tend to think that there might be a supply glut coming up. Many new citizens are previously PR, so shouldn't double-count as well. Not all PRs buy properties in the end. Many are working here and do intend to go back to their country/other more prestigious countries after their working stints. I hope the government will review their GLS and release less land, because seriously, I don't think the market can absorb that kind of supply - looking at the home sales figures past few years (even with the PR numbers), the massive supply may outstrip demand come 2009. In fact, the impact is somewhat felt today already.

I've also thought about the issue of "double counting", but upon careful analysis, no there isn't double counting.

You see, the 17,000 Citizens could have been PRs in the past (in fact I think most people become PRs first before becoming Citizens) hence their PR membership is already accounted for in the number of new "PRs" in one of the earlier years.

When they convert to citizens in 2007, they are classified under the 17,000 "PR converted to Citizens" whereas those 63,000 are "Foreigners converted to PRs".

Some of these 63,000 my convert to citizens at a future date, but they will then be classified as "PR converted to Citizens" under a future year.

Hence these figures are in a situation of steady state flow.

[Unregistered]

Oh any comments on this observation from the expats forum? Seems a knowledgeable chap. Thanks buddy for educating us. I will delay my buying.



I Re: Apartment sales slowing?
« Reply #389 on: 18 March 2008, 23:13:57 PM » Quote

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from: Kubes.SG on 18 March 2008, 23:04:49 PM

The reason I am looking for some rational data-based economic basis for why values will boom again soon in Singapore is because I get nothing but the following soft baseless reasons, that don't link to any meaningful data:

IRs are coming. Rich people will discover Singapore
Singapore Flyer/Eye
F1
Youth Olympics
Singapore Hub for everything
Inflation is high and increasing in Singapore
SGD is rising against USD
India and China booming ecomony
Singapore has limited land
Population will increase to 6.5mln
Financial/Media/Health Hub

My points are the following:

Singapore prime property is grossly overvalued, by historical and global standards - (don't look at the 1996 peak as the benchmark, look at the average of the last 20 years)

Singapore's property cycle is 1-2 years of boom, followed by 1-2 years of decline then 2-5 years of stagnation

About 30,000 new prime properties are booked to be completed by 2010, exceeding demand

Possibly 50% of those were purchased by investors/speculators, many though DPS

DPS entirely skewed the market by allowing speculators/developers/realtors to rapidly pump-up prices with very small financial commitment (2%-20%)

Many of the speculators never planned to own the apartments they bought, but to flip them quickly

With negagitve equity and being highly leverage speculators will be under massive stress. Some will walk, some will sell. Further reducing market prices and sentiment.

Singapore's leadership are publicly bearish on the prime property market declaring prices will decline

Sales of prime properties have collapsed over the in Jan and Feb to the lowest levels in 5 years (BT and ST this week)

Market sentiment is at panic levels. External negative economic pressures and credit crunch is underway now in all developed economies - strong and weak. These will impact Singapore too.

Asia has not "de-coupled" its economies from the US or WE. Singapore's exports indirectly still go mainly to the US. Consumption is till very low in Chinda. With recession in the US the reduced demand will still hit Singapre. Chinda owe Singapore nothing.

Singapore's 2007Q4 GDP shrank 4.8% I fully expect that the SG.gov is currently pumping the local economy hard to avoid a technical recession.

Singapore's productivity rates in 2007 declined by 0.9% - the greatest decline on record

Latest population target is 5.5mln by 2040, or about 10,000 HH per year.

Given current mix that means about 2,000 prime properties required per year

Jobs growth is good, but it is largely at the lowest levels. In coming workers will not be able to live in prime property. Many incoming professionals will not be able to afford prime property rentals without correction

Adam Smith's invisible hand of capitalism will play an influencing role in equalizing the balance

[Unregistered]

Re: Singapore Property Prices Increasing
« Reply #28 on: Today at 12:05:06 AM » Quote

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If we look at statistics we must also look between the lines. Not only maths and physic apply here, let's apply history also.
If you think the price will increase, how much more will it rise? Of course we have to factor in inflation, we cant deny that.

However, we are talking about cyclic pattern here where prices go up and down not when we buy a property 20 years ago for $100,000 and now worth $500,000 or even 40 years ago when we paid only $20,000.

Remember 1996? Property prices rose as if there was no tomorrow. Then came the crash and the rest was history. People who paid a million for their condominiums found that they suffered a paper loss in a matter of few months. Even today, they are still licking their wound.

During the financial crisis, many lost their jobs and could not even afford to pay their maintenance fee and downgraded to HDB. Even HDB owners found the value of their homes dropped more than 30%. I have been looking for a replacement unit for the past year and knew the ground well. For the past three months, there were only 2 or 3 viewers compared to about 10 last June.

For some properties, which I will not name, there is not a single viewer. Newly launched projects are only half taken up compared to last year when all units were sold as soon as they were launched. I have to add that most buyers are speculators then.

I know of 1 project which was sold out as soon as it was launched and a property agent bought 16 units in the hope of flipping and earning a very fast buck. Good luck to him. This project TOP since last December but only half of it is occupied now (where are the owners?).

Serious sellers are now willing to accept a lower price while speculators are the one who are still holding on to their high asking prices (good luck to them also).

The only real buyers in the market now are people like me, the enbloc sellers who have 3 choices, namely, buy a HDB (majority did), a private property or rent.

However, not all enbloc sellers are buying, mind you. Out of 48 owners in my development, a few of them own 2 units while 16 owners rented their units out as they have been living in other properties. When the site is redeveloped, there will be more than 70 units available.

I am sure the same story applies to other developments as well. As long as there are still enbloc sellers looking for replacement units, there is still a demand.

The question is, how long can enbloc sellers hold up the market? Dont forget, there is only 1 enbloc deal this year.

More enblocs will come and enblocs will drive the market what.

[Unregistered]

I have some questions for Mr. Expat Forum, can any kind soul here help me to convey?


Singapore prime property is grossly overvalued, by historical and global standards - (don't look at the 1996 peak as the benchmark, look at the average of the last 20 years)

I don't know what you mean by "overvalued". If you look at the average of the last 20 years, almost all global cities have gone up tremendously, not just Singapore.

Bombay, Shanghai, London, New York, Hong Kong.

If you look at Hong Kong's property market here:
http://business.fullerton.edu/financ...05.337_356.pdf

and Singapore's property market here:
http://www.redas.com/einformation/mt...vtmeasures.pdf

You can see that both Singapore and Hong Kong have gone up almost synchronously.

London's property prices have also gone up by 279% in the last 10 years.
http://www.easier.com/view/House_Pri...le-109868.html

Hence can you tell me which major international city is not "overvalued" compared to their historical value?

(Please exclude cities like Yangon, Kabul and Baghdad).


Singapore's property cycle is 1-2 years of boom, followed by 1-2 years of decline then 2-5 years of stagnation

Where did you get this idea from?

Look at the following residential price chart from 1960 to 2006

http://www.redas.com/einformation/mt...vtmeasures.pdf

Did you see the continuous climb all the way from Q2 1986 (Index at 33.5 points) all the way to Q2 1996 (Index at 181.4 points). Exactly 10 years and a rise of 440%. Bull-run of the decade!

What do you mean by 1-2 years of boom, followed by 1-2 years of decline?


About 30,000 new prime properties are booked to be completed by 2010, exceeding demand

Can you tell me how do you know that this supply of 30,000 has exceeded the demand?

How did you work out the demand? What are the formulae and data you used to work out the demand?

What exactly is the demand?


Possibly 50% of those were purchased by investors/speculators, many though DPS

DPS entirely skewed the market by allowing speculators/developers/realtors to rapidly pump-up prices with very small financial commitment (2%-20%)

Many of the speculators never planned to own the apartments they bought, but to flip them quickly

With negagitve equity and being highly leverage speculators will be under massive stress. Some will walk, some will sell. Further reducing market prices and sentiment.

Why should the speculators be under "massive stress"? The apartments can easily be rented out.

Don't forget that all the projects coming up TOP this year were bought in 2005, when the price was only 50% of what it is today.

With a rental yield of around 5% (based on current prices) and a mortgage interest rate of only 3%, the bank is subsidising borrowers to the tune of 2% p.a.

For those who've bought 3 years ago at half price (compared to today), that's a yeild of 10% versus a mortgage interest of 3%, the bank is subsidising borrowers to the tune of 7%.

Furthermore, rentals are expected to continue to rise due to the influx of foreingers. Read the following article:

"HDB, private apartment rentals set to rise

By Wong Siew Ying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 03 April 2008 0050 hrs
SINGAPORE : Rentals for HDB and mass market private apartments are set to rise in the coming years, with more foreign workers heading for Singapore."

If it looks familiar, it's because it's the title for one of the threads in this forum. Go and read the full article over there.

Please explain where is the "massive stress" coming from?

Is getting 7% p.a. from the bank stressful? Are you referring to the "massive stress" of having too much money?


Singapore's leadership are publicly bearish on the prime property market declaring prices will decline

That is really strange!

MM Lee just said during Chinese New Year on 11 Feb 2008 that "By 2011, the Marina Bay Area will be splendid, especially a water plaza, surrounded by a promenade fronting financial centres, integrated resorts, residential condominiums, food and beverages outlets, an enchanting sight to behold. It will be a unique city centre. We will not leave our heartlands behind. All new towns will be upgraded and beautified. The massive new investments in infrastructure and beautification, plus a steadily growing economy, with higher incomes, will keep property values going up."

You can read his full speech here:

http://app.sprinter.gov.sg/data/pr/20080211985.htm

May I ask whether MM Lee is considered part of "Singapore's leadership"?


Sales of prime properties have collapsed over the in Jan and Feb to the lowest levels in 5 years (BT and ST this week)

Market sentiment is at panic levels. External negative economic pressures and credit crunch is underway now in all developed economies - strong and weak. These will impact Singapore too.

If sentiment is at "panic level", why then does the URA property price index rise 6.6% in Q4 2007 and then another 4.2% in Q1 2008?

http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2008/pr08-35.html

Remember that all these happened after the U.S. subprime had started.

If sentiment is at "panic level", then prices should decrease, instead of increase. Are you referring to "panic level" of the buyers, or "panic level" of the sellers?


Asia has not "de-coupled" its economies from the US or WE. Singapore's exports indirectly still go mainly to the US. Consumption is till very low in Chinda. With recession in the US the reduced demand will still hit Singapre. Chinda owe Singapore nothing.

Singapore's 2007Q4 GDP shrank 4.8% I fully expect that the SG.gov is currently pumping the local economy hard to avoid a technical recession.

Singapore's productivity rates in 2007 declined by 0.9% - the greatest decline on record


According to the Ministry of Trade and Industry, "Singapore growth slows to 6.0% in fourth quarter"

Even "On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised basis, real GDP fell by 3.2 per cent in the quarter compared with a 4.4 per cent gain in the preceding quarter, reflecting a slowdown in the manufacturing sector".

May I known where did you get the figure "shrank 4.8%" from?

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...320244/1/.html


Latest population target is 5.5mln by 2040, or about 10,000 HH per year.

Given current mix that means about 2,000 prime properties required per year

Jobs growth is good, but it is largely at the lowest levels. In coming workers will not be able to live in prime property. Many incoming professionals will not be able to afford prime property rentals without correction

Adam Smith's invisible hand of capitalism will play an influencing role in equalizing the balance

What you mean by "Jobs growth is good, but it is largely at the lowest levels. In coming workers will not be able to live in prime property. Many incoming professionals will not be able to afford prime property rentals"?

Read the following article:

Steaming demand for senior private bankers
7 February 2007

UBS isn't the only one beefing up its senior private banking ranks in Singapore.

The Swiss bank relocated Carlo Grigioni, its formerly Swiss-based global head of private wealth management, to Singapore this month.

Pay for these top individuals is generous – the salary for the average private banker is around S$300k (US$195k). But it can reach considerably more than that. "Last year we came across a few candidates who will hit S$700k to $800k in total compensation," says Koh.

http://news.efinancialcareers.sg/NEW...ewsItemId-9212

Do you think that with a salary of S$300k to $800k per year, these "low level workers" will be able to live in prime properties?

[Unregistered]

My agent says price is moving up 5% since the announcement for Jurong Gateway. Tells me to hold and not to sell now.
According to quite a few "experts" on this board the cannons are still booming. I just hope they are not confusing it with the big thuds of speculators jumping from high rises.

[Unregistered]

According to quite a few "experts" on this board the cannons are still booming. I just hope they are not confusing it with the big thuds of speculators jumping from high rises.
You are right. The thuds are echoing throughout the island as they rush for the exits. Many are being trampled. The thuds would get softer as they land on fellow speculators rushing for the exits.

[Unregistered]

April 6, 2008

PROPERTY

7 signs of a property slowdown

Buyers seem to be gaining ground again in the private homes market but consultants say it's far from crashing yet

By Joyce Teo, Property Correspondent


After rocketing to dizzying heights last year, the private homes market has stalled because of the global credit crunch - an external factor that took the market by surprise.

The withdrawal of the deferred payment scheme last year has also dampened demand somewhat.

Sales volumes and interest have fizzled out just as quickly as the market surged last year.

While many players hang on to the notion that strong fundamentals - low interest rates, for instance - will support the market, sentiment has fast melted away.

Is the property market slowing to a crawl? We examine the mounting evidence.

1 Growth in home prices weakens

The Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA's) early estimate of first-quarter data showed a 4.2 per cent rise in private home prices against 6.8 per cent in the previous quarter and 31 per cent last year.

Consultants expect price growth to weaken. Prices, especially for high-end homes, might fall but not significantly as sellers are still reluctant to accept lower prices, said a seasoned property agent. 'There's no urgency to do so.'

2 Launches are held back

Developers have ample properties to sell but most continue to hold back launches. Some small ones have gone ahead but the response has been unimpressive.

With buyers and sellers choosing to remain on the sidelines as the global impact of a slowing United States economy remains uncertain, the market is largely quiet.

URA data showed that only 185 new private homes were sold in February, down from 328 in January. Last year, developers sold 14,811 new homes.

3 Collective sales have died down

This market is dead, for now at least, as developers stay away and new rules make it tougher for owners to sell en bloc.

So far this year, only one sale has been done compared with 26 in the first quarter of last year.

And one potential sale - that of Makeway View in Newton - was cancelled after the buyer, Bravo Building Construction, said it had found out that it would have to pay a higher-than-expected development charge.

Owners of some estates are starting to lower their price expectations.

Pinetree Condominium in Balmoral Park, for instance, was recently relaunched at a lower indicative price of $128 million - down from around $145 million last September, but still well above the 2006 price tag of $59 million.

4 Investor funds pull out or hold off

Islamic investment bank Kuwait Finance House, which agreed last December to buy 97 Goodwood Residence units for $818.4 million from GuocoLand, allowed the purchase option to lapse.

Both parties said last month that they were still in talks but did not provide clear reasons for the pullout. Industry sources had speculated that the fund's price - a record for the condo's area - was too high.

A recent DTZ Research report said some funds are holding off making investments, at least for the first half of this year, until the extent of the US slowdown and its global impact become clearer.

5 Sellers hand out discounts galore

In the resale market, sellers are getting more flexible. There are more desperate sellers in the market this year, property agents said.

Some want to sell one or two of their properties because they had bought some units under the deferred payment scheme, and payment is due in six months to a year, one agent said.

For new launches or sales of new units, some developers are also willing to give discounts when asked, while others offer stamp duty rebates to attract buyers.

6 Agents less sought after, ads dwindle

Property agents have more free time and are taking out fewer advertisements because of the poor response.

Last year, a seller's unit could be marketed by five to six agents, with the deal going to the agent who garnered the best price.

But this year, a seller might go with one agent, said HSR Property Group's executive director, Mr Eric Cheng.

On average, an ad for a reasonably priced unit could attract 12 to 15 calls last year. That is now down by half, he said. Prime, high-end homes have it worse, he added, noting that there could be no calls at all for some ads.

'I have not been advertising since Nov 15 because I could see sales volume falling,' said agent Andrew Soh.

7 Buyers toss in low bids to test the waters

Some developers have offered rather low bids in recent land tenders, which signals a slowing property market.

The Government in mid-March decided not to award a landed housing site in Jurong West as the bids were too low.

Then, the lowest bid for a Yishun condo site came in at just $95 per sq ft of potential gross floor area.

'The developers are pricing in the risks of falling prices,' said Knight Frank's director for consultancy and research, Mr Nicholas Mak.

'Given thin volume, they could also be hoping that there is no competition.'

Going forward, optimistic players are waiting for the market to regain some of its former glory in the next six months.

The pessimistic ones are prepared to ride out the whole year and possibly the next.

'If volume remains thin, there is a chance that private home prices might weaken this year, but the market is not expected to crash,' said Mr Mak.


The 8th sign is the loud thuds heard due to speculators jumping off high rises.

[Unregistered]

You are right. The thuds are echoing throughout the island as they rush for the exits. Many are being trampled. The thuds would get softer as they land on fellow speculators rushing for the exits.

Then can you explain why the URA residential price index still rose 4.2% in Q1 2008?

Sour grapes have been predicting "rush for exits" since the sub prime problem started around July last year.

Reminder. Now is April 2008, in another three months we're going to celebrate 1st anniversay of sub prime.

That means sour grapes have been saying the "crash" for almost one anniversary already ...