View Full Version : How Much Will Property Prices Fall in 2014?
princess_morbucks
24-02-14, 20:06
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/much-property-prices-fall-2014-093412498.html
http://l1.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/REZdb6qV8.swt6GqDF5c5A--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7cT04NTt3PTYzMA--/http://media.zenfs.com/en_SG/News/Propwise.sg/140224-Figure-1.png
How to define property price fall?
1. When you buy at price A and sell at price B and B is less than A.
2. When A buy at price A and B buy later at price B and B is less than A.
When everyone sell and cannot buy, who want to sell.
When nobody sell how to fall.
So far I have only seen major property price correction happening AFTER a crisis has taken place, have never seen property price falling happening because people are talking about a possible crisis happening.
Having said that, in every property cycle, there will always be the weaker investors who will exit at the slightest bad news even if it is selling at loss.
If salary increase 3% to 5% per year while property price didn't drop and remain the same for the next two years, it is considered 6% to 10% drop for two years.
So price won't drop but remain the same.
Wunderkind
24-02-14, 21:16
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/much-property-prices-fall-2014-093412498.html
http://l1.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/REZdb6qV8.swt6GqDF5c5A--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7cT04NTt3PTYzMA--/http://media.zenfs.com/en_SG/News/Propwise.sg/140224-Figure-1.png
Believe that the property market will undergo a mild correction not amounting to more than 5% this year unless there is a "black swan" event happening.
Nonetheless, the government is ready to intervene in the event of a major correction. They have the tools to arrest any impending crash. This gives a lot of assurance to investors and owners alike.
So, as long as you have the holding power to outlast the so-called 'soft landing", you will be fine.
Most probably flat this year for OCR and RCR, but with CCR correcting abt 5%, for pte property.
The period when a big bear was shouting crash turns out to be e peak of e cycle.
My prediction: index will drop 5 to 8% but those who try to buy will not be able to bottom fish, as transactions will be super low, so only those with contacts will be able to sniff out bargains....
Then many will be working during how come index drop, but seller still asking high prices, coz as one forummer say, see, already kena then cannot buy coz absd, TDSR, LTV, so might as well ride it out..... how many will have cash flow problem if no Crisis?
Yield is about 3% min. Even if interest rates goes up to 3% still breakeven, where is the motivation to Sell?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuMzAaNrbRI
thomaspaine
25-02-14, 21:28
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/much-property-prices-fall-2014-093412498.html
http://l1.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/REZdb6qV8.swt6GqDF5c5A--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7cT04NTt3PTYzMA--/http://media.zenfs.com/en_SG/News/Propwise.sg/140224-Figure-1.png
Tricia Song wrote a super bearish article during the Asian financial crisis that I personally think accentuated the already bearish sentiment then. How I disliked her then .....
http://www.stasiareport.com/supplements/saturday-special-report/story/stiff-home-loan-curbs-long-term-measure-20130706
IF YOU have been considering taking up a home loan, the new lending limits that local banks must apply will probably have you wincing. And no wonder - they are one of the toughest sets of loan rules worldwide.
Not true, in china you can only buy one unit. Got money also cannot buy.
thomaspaine
25-02-14, 21:51
http://www.stasiareport.com/supplements/saturday-special-report/story/stiff-home-loan-curbs-long-term-measure-20130706
IF YOU have been considering taking up a home loan, the new lending limits that local banks must apply will probably have you wincing. And no wonder - they are one of the toughest sets of loan rules worldwide.
Not true, in china you can only buy one unit. Got money also cannot buy.
Thanks, now I know what she looks like.
http://bit.ly/1poJ8Q4
select images
or http://bit.ly/1poJzdg
https://www.annexgalleries.com/images/items/large/13189/Arcachon-Bains-de-Mer-after-Geache-by-Regley-de-Koenigsegg.jpg
Currently rental n resale is very weak. I can imagine the OCR comes up in 2015. OCR so far who will rent n got so many people want to rent?
The bear cycle already started.
Currently rental n resale is very weak. I can imagine the OCR comes up in 2015. OCR so far who will rent n got so many people want to rent?
The bear cycle already started.
The time difference between OCR and RCR/CCR can be as little as 10 mins, with a rent difference of $1-2k. If I were a tenant with limited budget, I would choose OCR also, won't you?
proud owner
25-02-14, 22:48
The time difference between OCR and RCR/CCR can be as little as 10 mins, with a rent difference of $1-2k. If I were a tenant with limited budget, I would choose OCR also, won't you?
when market turns, CCR tends to react faster ... lowering rent first ...
by the time the effect gets to OCR ... most tenants would have already found their home ..
when market turns, CCR tends to react faster ... lowering rent first ...
by the time the effect gets to OCR ... most tenants would have already found their home ..
Let's use a practical eg. Say 3 bedder newton condo for $5,500 and Yishun condo for $3,500. Assuming a 10% fall in rental price, the newton condo's asking is now $5,000. Assuming Yishun condo's asking price drops by only $200 to $3,300, which is more likely to secure tenants?
Newton at $5,000 or Yishun at $3,300? Bearing also in mind that Yishun's rental is supported by HDB tenant pool.
Depend whether from the West or from the East. From the West they like to stay near to the people from the the West, from the east, if they have not stay in the West before they come to Singapore than $ is more important.
proud owner
25-02-14, 23:08
Let's use a practical eg. Say 3 bedder newton condo for $5,500 and Yishun condo for $3,500. Assuming a 10% fall in rental price, the newton condo's asking is now $5,000. Assuming Yishun condo's asking price drops by only $200 to $3,300, which is more likely to secure tenants?
Newton at $5,000 or Yishun at $3,300? Bearing also in mind that Yishun's rental is supported by HDB tenant pool.
I understand where you are coming from.
my experience is that when mkt turns, (using your example), Newton will cut more than 10 pct, maybe 15 pct , while Yishun will cut 10 pct or less ..
if I were a tenant, I would still choose newton. even though Newton and yishun are only 10 mins train ride apart.
I would bargain newton to 4.5k ...
I know for a fact, recently a friend of mine at V shenton ... he used to pay 4.5k a mth ... negotiated with landlord and managed to get below 4k ...
Good properties located in good locations (I didnt say prime or CCR) will always fair better or even isolated by market over supply.
Usually during a over supply situation, those crappy units in crappy location that will first to nose dive because of difficulties finding tenants.
Surrounding competition and amenities supported the price in a area.
Will demands remain weak in 5 to 10 years time in view of over supply?
Do you mean One Shenton?
I understand where you are coming from.
my experience is that when mkt turns, (using your example), Newton will cut more than 10 pct, maybe 15 pct , while Yishun will cut 10 pct or less ..
if I were a tenant, I would still choose newton. even though Newton and yishun are only 10 mins train ride apart.
I would bargain newton to 4.5k ...
I know for a fact, recently a friend of mine at V shenton ... he used to pay 4.5k a mth ... negotiated with landlord and managed to get below 4k ...
The time difference between OCR and RCR/CCR can be as little as 10 mins, with a rent difference of $1-2k. If I were a tenant with limited budget, I would choose OCR also, won't you?
It's relative. If u work I'm Cbd there is a big diff if u stay in upper bukir timah n Novena ot river valley . It's more than 10mins
Let's use a practical eg. Say 3 bedder newton condo for $5,500 and Yishun condo for $3,500. Assuming a 10% fall in rental price, the newton condo's asking is now $5,000. Assuming Yishun condo's asking price drops by only $200 to $3,300, which is more likely to secure tenants?
Newton at $5,000 or Yishun at $3,300? Bearing also in mind that Yishun's rental is supported by HDB tenant pool.
Hdb tenant pool is limit d. N hdb tenant pool do not want to pay much. In ur comparison u also need to factor in hdb 5 room rental is 2500 . Won't the hdb tenant go for 2000-2500 hdb? Even more saving. N ocr have a lot of hdb!
We can analyze to death. Fact is today rental market is slowing. So is resale. Spoke to few agent n agent friends. It's pretty tough time for them now. It's not easy to be still committed in this job given some did not close a deal in mths .
And rental is dropping . I can imagine the pain of the ocr when the units top. Who Will they rent to? People on the side lines be patient quite sure the bottom will come end this yr or next. Fire sales galore .
Most of the time, its the location of schools that determine where the expat families lives not so much where they work.
Most of the time, its the location of schools that determine where the expat families lives not so much where they work.
It's also depends. Big units in ocr I agree coz those targets family. The mm studio I find ir questionable.
It's also depends. Big units in ocr I agree coz those targets family. The mm studio I find ir questionable.
Well I have a 3 bedder at the Warren that I am renting out for $3.5K to a Korean family. How much can it dive down to? Max $2.8K?
As compared to Newton 3 bedder which is doing at, say $5.5K? How much can Newton dive down to?
Well I have a 3 bedder at the Warren that I am renting out for $3.5K to a Korean family. How much can it dive down to? Max $2.8K?
As compared to Newton 3 bedder which is doing at, say $5.5K? How much can Newton dive down to?
Lets put it this way, an expat family who are currently living in OCR area is not going to relocated to RCR or CCR just because rent in those area are falling and neither will they move out just because of a few hundred dollar if they enjoy living there they are.
The market correction will last till end 2015 max...
Even the bearish Barclays economist said so...
And based on our past historical records, 2 years is about right for a market correction.... if no crisis.
So either sell now and hope it drop at least 10-15% or else not worth to sell and rent. or just sit tight and wait for the good times to roll again..
For those who feel the market will drop 15% to 25% quickly sell now...
Lets put it this way, an expat family who are currently living in OCR area is not going to relocated to RCR or CCR just because rent in those area are falling and neither will they move out just because of a few hundred dollar if they enjoy living there they are.
Well, there's clearly an alternative school of thought that my Korean tenant (who look like they are on a tight budget) will move to Newton 3 bedder for $4.5k, even if I were to cut my condo rental to $3k. Again, time will tell who's right.
Just sharing.....
Last weekend I viewed a few units at Rivervale Crest....after the viewing about 1-2hrs later, agent called to ask if I want to counter an offer of $930K from another buyer. I didnt go for it. It's a 1216sqft unit on the 10th floor. That works out to be 765psf. I later checked again and was told the unit has indeed been sold.
Last transaction in caveat for a comparable unit in terms of size (1216sqft) and 6-10th floor, was in Aug 2013 for $988,000...812psf.
Can we take it that prices are coming down?
PS: Not all 3bdrm are 1216sqft...they have 1206sqft, 1195sqft, 1141sqft so above example are of the same layout. The one that has just been sold is north south facing....
Just sharing.....
Last weekend I viewed a few units at Rivervale Crest....after the viewing about 1-2hrs later, agent called to ask if I want to counter an offer of $930K from another buyer. I didnt go for it. It's a 1216sqft unit on the 10th floor. That works out to be 765psf. I later checked again and was told the unit has indeed been sold.
Last transaction in caveat for a comparable unit in terms of size (1216sqft) and 6-10th floor, was in Aug 2013 for $988,000...812psf.
Can we take it that prices are coming down?
PS: Not all 3bdrm are 1216sqft...they have 1206sqft, 1195sqft, 1141sqft so above example are of the same layout. The one that has just been sold is north south facing....
Nearby balance EC units are selling @ $800psf, this could be better buy after all.
Nearby balance EC units are selling @ $800psf, this could be better buy after all.
This is exactly what I think.... I saw many units advertising 7xxpsf that's why I checked it out. Initially was thinking of getting an EC.
This is exactly what I think.... I saw many units advertising 7xxpsf that's why I checked it out. Initially was thinking of getting an EC.
Buyers still prefer new rather then resale bah, look at Compass Heights on ave for past 6 mth only selling at 894psf.
As compared to Newton 3 bedder which is doing at, say $5.5K? How much can Newton dive down to?
4k. can be even less. easily. I know it for a fact.
not so much about "who can go lower". OCR can go low but HDB can go even lower. It's about who can still have tenant.
the point is the ratio of demand over supply. there is a massive built up of OCR units, mostly for "investment", (even for upgraders, when they move to OCR the HDB becomes a supply rental unit). Do we have a similarly massive increase of OCR tenants ? I doubt.
Whatever you say about CCR/OCR, whoever already staying or used to the respective location/environment will not move. They will just negotiate for a lower rate. The supply of CCR today is the result of 2007 peak, won't change much. Neither is the demand.
there is also this sticky issue of tenancy. it lasts 2ys, the pricing can overlap the market sentiment of that time. (say you have a tenant today and the contract last till 2016). but for OCR, so many of them going to TOP right at the center of the storm.
I certainly believe the rental situation will be more severe in OCR compared to today.
4k. can be even less. easily. I know it for a fact.
not so much about "who can go lower". OCR can go low but HDB can go even lower. It's about who can still have tenant.
the point is the ratio of demand over supply. there is a massive built up of OCR units, mostly for "investment", (even for upgraders, when they move to OCR the HDB becomes a supply rental unit). Do we have a similarly massive increase of OCR tenants ? I doubt.
Whatever you say about CCR/OCR, whoever already staying or used to the respective location/environment will not move. They will just negotiate for a lower rate. The supply of CCR today is the result of 2007 peak, won't change much. Neither is the demand.
there is also this sticky issue of tenancy. it lasts 2ys, the pricing can overlap the market sentiment of that time. (say you have a tenant today and the contract last till 2016). but for OCR, so many of them going to TOP right at the center of the storm.
I certainly believe the rental situation will be more severe in OCR compared to today.
you sound so convincing, i worry liao ... :ashamed1:
hopefully still got some demand left for my hdb near mrt, when i move on :D
Buyers still prefer new rather then resale bah, look at Compass Heights on ave for past 6 mth only selling at 894psf.
I really dont understand this fixation with new...
arent almost all condos in Sengkang Punggol area fairly new?
Buy new, after 5 years also old....
Might as well pay 100 to 200 bucks psf lesser for an 5 years old condo right? since most condo in Sengkang have similar attributes
Well I have a 3 bedder at the Warren that I am renting out for $3.5K to a Korean family. How much can it dive down to? Max $2.8K?
As compared to Newton 3 bedder which is doing at, say $5.5K? How much can Newton dive down to?
Again depends on ur targeted tenants. locals or foreign? most OCR don't have so much foreign interest and those who go there are on budget.. i.e. upper east side for example.
Well u can say warren 3.5K. today there is upper bukit timah 3 bedder going for 2.9K no takers for 6mths. Thats how quiet it is.
Anyway the audience is diff.. in novena if price drop to 4.5K 3 bedder u will see people in East side moving to newton.
different area attract diff people. question u have to ask is how much supply i.e HDB rental and PC are in ur area. thats impact the rental price base on the tenant pool that is attracted to that area.
4k. can be even less. easily. I know it for a fact.
not so much about "who can go lower". OCR can go low but HDB can go even lower. It's about who can still have tenant.
the point is the ratio of demand over supply. there is a massive built up of OCR units, mostly for "investment", (even for upgraders, when they move to OCR the HDB becomes a supply rental unit). Do we have a similarly massive increase of OCR tenants ? I doubt.
Whatever you say about CCR/OCR, whoever already staying or used to the respective location/environment will not move. They will just negotiate for a lower rate. The supply of CCR today is the result of 2007 peak, won't change much. Neither is the demand.
there is also this sticky issue of tenancy. it lasts 2ys, the pricing can overlap the market sentiment of that time. (say you have a tenant today and the contract last till 2016). but for OCR, so many of them going to TOP right at the center of the storm.
I certainly believe the rental situation will be more severe in OCR compared to today.
I totally agree with this view.
walkthetiger
26-02-14, 18:34
4k. can be even less. easily. I know it for a fact.
not so much about "who can go lower". OCR can go low but HDB can go even lower. It's about who can still have tenant.
the point is the ratio of demand over supply. there is a massive built up of OCR units, mostly for "investment", (even for upgraders, when they move to OCR the HDB becomes a supply rental unit). Do we have a similarly massive increase of OCR tenants ? I doubt.
Whatever you say about CCR/OCR, whoever already staying or used to the respective location/environment will not move. They will just negotiate for a lower rate. The supply of CCR today is the result of 2007 peak, won't change much. Neither is the demand.
there is also this sticky issue of tenancy. it lasts 2ys, the pricing can overlap the market sentiment of that time. (say you have a tenant today and the contract last till 2016). but for OCR, so many of them going to TOP right at the center of the storm.
I certainly believe the rental situation will be more severe in OCR compared to today.
Few of my remaining PCs bought in 90s, now fully paid.. I can even afford to leave it vacant... so no worry lowering the rental to ridiculously level.
Only those PCs in recent years need to worry of low rental market, but luckily I managed to sell all recently.
Few of my remaining PCs bought in 90s, now fully paid.. I can even afford to leave it vacant... so no worry lowering the rental to ridiculously level.
Only those PCs in recent years need to worry of low rental market, but luckily I managed to sell all recently.
I fully support your views. If fully paid no worries. For another low cost one I have the lowest I can go if interest go up to 3% I can lower to 1.6k to break even, or leave vacant for holiday luxury hotel.
CCR, RCR or OCR, all in the same boat. 水涨船高。
It's true that OCR has a much larger supply coming on board, but this generally matches the profiles of people coming in. If they are the very rich type, do you think they prefer to rent or to purchase?
I really dont understand this fixation with new...
arent almost all condos in Sengkang Punggol area fairly new?
Buy new, after 5 years also old....
Might as well pay 100 to 200 bucks psf lesser for an 5 years old condo right? since most condo in Sengkang have similar attributes
Developers had throw a lots of money into adv, that's had work very well, plus their ID could have done the tricks.
In recent years new condos have some very nice facade like the glass balcony that really attracts lot's buyers, some even have high ceiling too. But all these are mainly found in PC.
When a buyer walks into a resale unit, their feeling could be different from a SF, that could have somehow kills the deal.
Punggol does not have any PC for resale yet, but SengKang TOPed PCs are mostly 10 years old, plus this area have too many U/C condos which buyers are spoilt for choices for the past 2 years.
But soon! resale will be back to flood the market in this area.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.2 Copyright © 2024 vBulletin Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.