View Full Version : Singapore property prices to fall 10-15% this year
Firesale season coming?
Coincidentally I also heard the 10-15% drop from someone who is in property development.
DBS CEO Piyush Gupta on Friday said he expects residential property prices in Singapore to fall 10 to 15 per cent this year but will not have a material impact on the bank's earnings.
princess_morbucks
14-02-14, 16:07
Similar thread here :).
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=20449
With gdp revision upwards, i do not expect 10% drop. More likely 0-5% decline.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CpaUBVSYO4
phantom_opera
14-02-14, 16:36
it could be just a signal that he (Gupta) tried to send to the garmen to reverse some cooling measures, just not as direct as Mr Kwek
Gupta says stress test shows that DBS can afford a reduction of property prices up to 30%.
A signal to Govt that property measures can continue.
Wunderkind
14-02-14, 17:31
A number of developers and property consultants and now even bankers have raised concerns to the government on the state of the property market given the cooling measures.
If Kwek Leng Beng shouts " Bay Ta Han liao ", you can imagine how many small developers have already choke.
Delink of condo and hdb will start soon. Time to remove some cm for condo.
Be smart. Sell and recognise profit. Do your own research and you'll know what to do
Be smart. Sell and recognise profit. Do your own research and you'll know what to do
Sell to you at firesale huh? Missed the boat previously?
Already told you all property market going to crash already loh! :o
Now they start predicting 10-15% (if without the relaxation of TDSR will be 20-30%!) :(
Sell to you at firesale huh? Missed the boat previously?
Already told you all property market going to crash already loh! :o
Now they start predicting 10-15% (if without the relaxation of TDSR will be 20-30%!) :(
sorry since when did you tell us the all property market going to crash?
last week? what sort of crash? 10%? 20%? 30%?
Please search for my post and you know!
Don't need me to feed you the fish right since everything in this forum in black and white? :p
I don't like repeating myself, even though I am old and may be forgetful.
The fact that you can keep repeating and repeating the same thing non-stop seems to tell me that you are already senile? :rolleyes:
sorry since when did you tell us the all property market going to crash?
last week? what sort of crash? 10%? 20%? 30%?
Please search for my post and you know!
Don't need me to feed you the fish right since everything in this forum in black and white? :p
I don't like repeating myself, even though I am old and may be forgetful.
The fact that you can keep repeating and repeating the same thing non-stop seems to tell me that you are already senile? :rolleyes:
Cannot find leh. What I get are mostly on air pollutions. Mai wayang lah
Pikachu1245
14-02-14, 22:03
Firesale season coming?
Coincidentally I also heard the 10-15% drop from someone who is in property development.
Seems like it is already happening. E.g. La Fiesta launch at 12xx to 13xx psf for one-bedder and all sold out on first day of launch. Now River Trees/ River Bank launching about 10xx to 12xx. Seems like already 8-25% price drop. No wonder the property gurus are advocating now is a good time to go in despite the absd............
Must compare apple to apple lah.
Last time give hardwood flooring bedrooms, now new launch only give laminates.
Last time still have marble flooring or good quality homogeneous tiles in living room, now only cheap tiles! :doh:
Last time good quality appliances and materials, now no-brand cheapo quickly spoilt appliances and materials! :o
Seems like it is already happening. E.g. La Fiesta launch at 12xx to 13xx psf for one-bedder and all sold out on first day of launch. Now River Trees/ River Bank launching about 10xx to 12xx. Seems like already 8-25% price drop. No wonder the property gurus are advocating now is a good time to go in despite the absd............
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQZMDiDkKmo
Must compare apple to apple lah.
o
Like comparing Paterson Residence to J Gateway ?? :D
mai kong jiao wei lah.
princess_morbucks
15-02-14, 07:48
Seems like it is already happening. E.g. La Fiesta launch at 12xx to 13xx psf for one-bedder and all sold out on first day of launch. Now River Trees/ River Bank launching about 10xx to 12xx. Seems like already 8-25% price drop. No wonder the property gurus are advocating now is a good time to go in despite the absd............
Really cannot compare liddat la.
Riverbank (UOL) and Rivertrees (Fraser consortium) are near LRT, but La fiesta is near MRT.
If you been down to Riverbank, you will notice that the finishes are laminate for the bedrooms and living area is porcelain flooring. These are budget type of finishes and that's why they can be priced lower, which would be better as investment property.
一分钱一分货。
If dbs makes announcement for their prediction to be 10-15% drop, it is not hard to think the drop can be much more worse than that becos they are conservative too.
Probably mega firesale in 2016 after a series of smaller fire breakout first?
Firesale season coming?
Coincidentally I also heard the 10-15% drop from someone who is in property development.
With govt curb on buyers spending power and rise in interest rate.. Developer n sellers will be pressured to sell.
princess_morbucks
15-02-14, 08:08
If dbs makes announcement for their prediction to be 10-15% drop, it is not hard to think the drop can be much more worse than that becos they are conservative too.
Probably mega firesale in 2016 after a series of smaller fire breakout first?
You could be right about the DBS ceo announcement!
When I first read it, I was wondering if it was functioning as a mouth piece from a reliable source.
All these years, there have been people shouting crash but it hasn't happen, so maybe now the time is really coming and need someone reliable to relay the message?
Perhaps dbs want to say indirectly to govt, lets cut tdsr?
see hdb resale price index 2013 http://www.propertyrichesprogram.com/blog/hdb-resale-price-index/ (http://www.propertyrichesprogram.com/blog/hdb-resale-price-index/).
The difference between many people shouted abt market crash 2-3yrs back n now is the real gov official statistics shows the tipping down .
See ura property price index as well.
http://www.propertyrichesprogram.com/blog/ura-property-price-index/
Stats will never lie or speculate.
You could be right about the DBS ceo announcement!
When I first read it, I was wondering if it was functioning as a mouth piece from a reliable source.
All these years, there have been people shouting crash but it hasn't happen, so maybe now the time is really coming and need someone reliable to relay the message?
Bursting Harry Dent’s own bubble
Saturday, 15 February 2014
Home
The recent predictions by US economist Harry Dent, claiming that Australia’s ‘property bubble’ is going to burst and that prices will be slashed by half, is somewhat an extreme view. Though it pays to be aware of these economists and the alarming claims, which pop up from time to time, it pays more to check the data they are providing as proof.
Dent is saying that US real estate prices will fall by 60 to 65%, Australia by 50% and that stock markets and China will crash – heralding a new ‘Great Depression’. But his claims don’t appear to be based on any data – there are little to no facts supporting that we are in for a depression.
Dent offers up no hard explanation for his predictions, apart from the income to house price ratio, and this is very high in a lot of cities where people want to live such as Sydney, Melbourne, San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York, Auckland and London. The reality in these places, is that there are rising populations and limited supply of housing in their most popular areas.
The ratios are of course much lower in less high-demand areas where there is slower growth, or where populations and prices drop when an industry such as mining or manufacturing goes into decline. Big cities however, are much more insulated as they have many economic strings to their bows.
If anything, Australian markets are getting stronger.
While residential property in many of our capital cities could now be deemed borderline ‘unaffordable’, I would contend that because a market has an asset that is somewhat unaffordable does not mean that it is overvalued.
Value is after all a function of the preparedness of a buyer to pay a price for the asset based on its unique attributes and its scarcity. So, while there are buyers at the current price, it is not overvalued.
Australian capital cities are unique in that our populations are generally concentrated in them. And, due to the cost of providing infrastructure to new land areas, our cities do not easily provide supply. Populations in Australia are growing and hence there is always some level of demand for housing assets.
Unaffordability is generally a measure based on the capacity of a median family to be a first home owner. There are many buyer types in a market, including investors and existing home owners.
An unaffordable market simply causes the type of buyers in the market who are active to change.
An unaffordable market for the first home owner simply causes a higher level of families to rent.
A population in an unaffordable market finds solutions to making a market affordable. For example, they may increase people density per dwelling, or alter the size of dwellings to reduce costs. They don't tend to sell into the market because it is unaffordable unless they have to as a consequence of unemployment or similar income failure.
But this point is the important issue: whilst there is no significant oversupply due to selling pressure or development of new properties, the increasing population will hold demand at current values and consequently our property markets will not be overvalued – and therefore we are not experiencing a bubble.
To be honest, I am not hugely surprised that Dent predicted the GFC (if this is actually true) as his predictions do seem to follow a similar theme. As with many economist naysayers, one would have to be right about something sooner or later – it’s a bit like predicting a dice will throw a six, if you keep throwing of course it will.
What I would suggest for buyers is to take a long term approach based on the data. Work on the basis that economic growth and prices trend higher and higher over time, and although it may be interrupted by recessions and other negatives, the general theme is up.
It’s important to be on top of these sorts of startling predictions – but take them with a certain level of cynicism.
John Edwards is*consulting analyst for Onthehouse.com.au and founder of Residex.
Flip through classified today.. drop of 10 to 20% just a matter of how soon.
thomastansb
15-02-14, 09:58
I think this is the 5th consecutive year I am seeing this nonsense since 2010 and the 755 times I am seeing the same old crap.
Firesale season coming?
Coincidentally I also heard the 10-15% drop from someone who is in property development.
I think this is the 5th consecutive year I am seeing this nonsense since 2010 and the 755 times I am seeing the same old crap.
Firesale already started, its just you are not looking hard enough because you are not in the market for property.
walkthetiger
15-02-14, 12:34
Really cannot compare liddat la.
Riverbank (UOL) and Rivertrees (Fraser consortium) are near LRT, but La fiesta is near MRT.
If you been down to Riverbank, you will notice that the finishes are laminate for the bedrooms and living area is porcelain flooring. These are budget type of finishes and that's why they can be priced lower, which would be better as investment property.
一分钱一分货。
Wait till developer run out of justification for lower price, later to admit they are just selling lower to match the low market pricing.
They all knew the important of sustaining the high pricing, to ensure all to "huat" for years, and was battling with gov since 1st rounds CM... Now realise they can't win, acting victim and asking for help...
Must compare apple to apple lah.
Last time give hardwood flooring bedrooms, now new launch only give laminates.
Last time still have marble flooring or good quality homogeneous tiles in living room, now only cheap tiles! :doh:
Last time good quality appliances and materials, now no-brand cheapo quickly spoilt appliances and materials! :o
No wonder even the exterior looks not much difference from BTO or DBSS. Lucky got fencing to at least know it"s private. Even the fencing now most use cheapo type- std wire mesh type.
now buy pc must get them specify what the of fence provided, ...he he;-)
Is it cut cost because of low profit or out to squeeze more profit?
Wow, mega firsale in 2016! :doh:
Since most citizens (>90%) own properties, how will the GE-2016 turn out to be? You think most citizens prefer property market to crash? :beats-me-man:
If dbs makes announcement for their prediction to be 10-15% drop, it is not hard to think the drop can be much more worse than that becos they are conservative too.
Probably mega firesale in 2016 after a series of smaller fire breakout first?
Looks like now only the prime condos have underground basement car park and tennis court, the OCR condos mostly multi-storey car park right and no tennis court? :beats-me-man:
No wonder even the exterior looks not much difference from BTO or DBSS. Lucky got fencing to at least know it"s private. Even the fencing now most use cheapo type- std wire mesh type.
now buy pc must get them specify what the of fence provided, ...he he;-)
Is it cut cost because of low profit or out to squeeze more profit?
Looks like now only the prime condos have underground basement car park and tennis court, the OCR condos mostly multi-storey car park right and no tennis court? :beats-me-man:
carkpark wise, I am not sure. as to tennis court, I think the contrary is true.
Wow, mega firsale in 2016! :doh:
Since most citizens (>90%) own properties, how will the GE-2016 turn out to be? You think most citizens prefer property market to crash? :beats-me-man:
just checked a landed sold, loyang villas. sold $168psf cheaper than previous transaction. on 1624-1650sqft. from a 1.6m to 1.39m.
ps: don't argue for the sake of argue its a 99lh. argue based on the previous transaction at least. Tia
Precisely! Property market going to crash soon! :banghead:
We will see the repercussions in GE-2016! :doh:
just checked a landed sold, loyang villas. sold $168psf cheaper than previous transaction. on 1624-1650sqft. from a 1.6m to 1.39m.
ps: don't argue for the sake of argue its a 99lh. argue based on the previous transaction at least. Tia
Precisely! Property market going to crash soon! :banghead:
We will see the repercussions in GE-2016! :doh:
I don't see how it will affect GE2016. Most Singaporeans are no longer simpletons. I will never presume the market to be fortress like just because of a routine general election.
If crashing of property market is their main concern, could WP crash the market much more? We won't know, but I am sure this is in their consideration as well.
Property up 100% over the past 5 years liao, drop 15% is no big deal. :doh:
Only those bodoh who chiong in this 12 months are caught with their pants down
You are right, Singaporeans are no longer simpletons!
They can tell the difference between crashing the market because of the policies implemented that causes the crash or because the market crash due to economy concern! :doh:
I don't see how it will affect GE2016. Most Singaporeans are no longer simpletons. I will never presume the market to be fortress like just because of a routine general election.
If crashing of property market is their main concern, could WP crash the market much more? We won't know, but I am sure this is in their consideration as well.
walkthetiger
15-02-14, 19:23
Firesale already started, its just you are not looking hard enough because you are not in the market for property.
Have to agree...haha...even some bottom rated agents who I don't really knew well called me recently to see if I am keen...
Looks like now only the prime condos have underground basement car park and tennis court, the OCR condos mostly multi-storey car park right and no tennis court? :beats-me-man:
Most OCR got basement car parks and tennis court. Have been seeing more and more Ang Mos at OCR condos. Not surprising and I believe this trend will be increasing.
I don't see how it will affect GE2016. Most Singaporeans are no longer simpletons. I will never presume the market to be fortress like just because of a routine general election.
If crashing of property market is their main concern, could WP crash the market much more? We won't know, but I am sure this is in their consideration as well.
This time is different?? We heard that many times before liao, especially right before the bubble bust.
BEWARE!!!
The quality of mass market condo is no much different to the average joe project in CCR.
A good way to tell if a condo is luxury or not, is not the carpark. just see if the project has got something call the service lift, where delivery or movers have to use separate lift from the residence.
This time is different?? We heard that many times before liao, especially right before the bubble bust.
BEWARE!!!
The price will correct.
The PPI peak should have gone much higher, but on paper, it didn't because of the cooling measures. The area under the invisible dotted peak, if you imagine it extending up and coming down to meet the existing curves, just went straight to the government coffers as BSD, ABSD and SSD. Having said that, any collapse will not have a 100% strength since the government has already, to their best of their abilities, manipulated the PPI curves.
Why not car park hah?
Ask you, CCR luxury condos got say 150 car park lots to 100 units.
OCR condo usually got 400 car park lots to 500 units right?
The developers already suspect that most people in OCR condo cannot afford even a car, so no point building 650 car park lots for 500 units right? Even when they build 400 car park lots to 500 units, stupid people like you will still buy away?! :banghead:
luxury condos got such service called Concierge service,
OCR condo got boh? You tell people in OCR condo "Concierge" and they say "HAH? What is that? Can eat or not is it?" :rolleyes:
And another big difference: Luxury condos usually < 200 units per estate with a large swimming pool and a tennis court, and a reasonable size gym,
OCR condo got >400 units per estate right but with a about similar size swimming pool and 1 tennis court and 1 almost same size gym right? You know what is called under-facilities in OCR condos? :o
OCR condos under-facilities so have to rush and cheong to book anything from tennis court, BBQ pit, etc 1 month in advance otherwise no chance to use right? Why like that? You live in luxury condo you only need to book 1-2 week in advance still can get....
Tell you also no use right because you never live in luxury condo before? :sleep:
The quality of mass market condo is no much different to the average joe project in CCR.
A good way to tell if a condo is luxury or not, is not the carpark. just see if the project has got something call the service lift, where delivery or movers have to use separate lift from the residence.
Sell to you at firesale huh? Missed the boat previously?
Bro, I've already sold mine. Investing is all personal views. I rather recognise profit than sit there hoping price will go up and up. At least can sleep soundly at night :sleep:
Point is don't be greedy. Once hit a level accepted to each's expectation, might as well sell. Obviously market can go north or south after you sell, but I rather make less money than potentially having money go south. Personal choice. But it seems too many people are just hanging on not knowing when to sell and potentially getting caught when market reverses.
Making money is knowing when to sell, not when to buy.
My 2 cents
Bro, I've already sold mine. Investing is all personal views. I rather recognise profit than sit there hoping price will go up and up. At least can sleep soundly at night :sleep:
Point is don't be greedy. Once hit a level accepted to each's expectation, might as well sell. Obviously market can go north or south after you sell, but I rather make less money than potentially having money go south. Personal choice. But it seems too many people are just hanging on not knowing when to sell and potentially getting caught when market reverses.
Making money is knowing when to sell, not when to buy.
My 2 cents
Totally agreed! Its not how fast u can drive but how fast u can brake that matters. :)
Why not car park hah?
Ask you, CCR luxury condos got say 150 car park lots to 100 units.
OCR condo usually got 400 car park lots to 500 units right?
The developers already suspect that most people in OCR condo cannot afford even a car, so no point building 650 car park lots for 500 units right? Even when they build 400 car park lots to 500 units, stupid people like you will still buy away?! :banghead:
luxury condos got such service called Concierge service,
OCR condo got boh? You tell people in OCR condo "Concierge" and they say "HAH? What is that? Can eat or not is it?" :rolleyes:
And another big difference: Luxury condos usually < 200 units per estate with a large swimming pool and a tennis court, and a reasonable size gym,
OCR condo got >400 units per estate right but with a about similar size swimming pool and 1 tennis court and 1 almost same size gym right? You know what is called under-facilities in OCR condos? :o
OCR condos under-facilities so have to rush and cheong to book anything from tennis court, BBQ pit, etc 1 month in advance otherwise no chance to use right? Why like that? You live in luxury condo you only need to book 1-2 week in advance still can get....
Tell you also no use right because you never live in luxury condo before? :sleep:
Your discussion here was comparing multistory vs basement car park, saying that basement carpark is more prime.
I said, dont talk jiao wei. If you dont believe just that a look at Orchard Residence.
Again, dont argue for the sake of arguing. Just because you are invested in the wrong side of CCR, that doesnt mean everyone need to listen to all you jiao wei.
Your discussion here was comparing multistory vs basement car park, saying that basement carpark is more prime.
I said, dont talk jiao wei. If you dont believe just that a look at Orchard Residence.
Again, dont argue for the sake of arguing. Just because you are invested in the wrong side of CCR, that doesnt mean everyone need to listen to all you jiao wei.
LOL the part of the Jiao wei I totally agree. sound more like some turnning blue jiao.
You then have to compare apple to apple loh........
Orchard Residence multi-storey car park vs MarQ@Paterson basement car park - Which one more prestigious and transacted at higher price?
Tell you don't talk cock already! :tsk-tsk:
Your discussion here was comparing multistory vs basement car park, saying that basement carpark is more prime.
I said, dont talk jiao wei. If you dont believe just that a look at Orchard Residence.
Again, dont argue for the sake of arguing. Just because you are invested in the wrong side of CCR, that doesnt mean everyone need to listen to all you jiao wei.
You then have to compare apple to apple loh........
Orchard Residence multi-storey car park vs MarQ@Paterson basement car park - Which one more prestigious and transacted at higher price?
Tell you don't talk cock already! :tsk-tsk:
You must really thank your parents for that thick skin you have on your face.
Apple to apple? Like Paterson Residence to J Gateway....:doh:
Mai kong jiao wei lah. Told you that you bought on the wrong side of CCR liao.
walkthetiger
17-02-14, 19:35
Bro, I've already sold mine. Investing is all personal views. I rather recognise profit than sit there hoping price will go up and up. At least can sleep soundly at night :sleep:
Point is don't be greedy. Once hit a level accepted to each's expectation, might as well sell. Obviously market can go north or south after you sell, but I rather make less money than potentially having money go south. Personal choice. But it seems too many people are just hanging on not knowing when to sell and potentially getting caught when market reverses.
Making money is knowing when to sell, not when to buy.
My 2 cents
You are smart indeed.
Last month I just sold one to a “drunken” fellow. This month I found one herd who probably thinks he is in luck to get some discount from me….. haha, I am the real lucky one to find a buyer so quickly and enjoy a fat CNY....
A fellow in this forum who said “property is not for sale, but for keeping, there is no bad time to buy..etc...” hope he has awaken by now. Or maybe he was just trying to fool people to jump in at the highest peak....very bad....
proud owner
17-02-14, 20:46
to me ... those condos in CCR that can afford to have ALL surface parking is Prime ...
only those who cannot afford to acquire enough land then build multi storey or basement parking ...
Surface parking to put your Rolls-Royce or Lamboroghini under the sun and rain then that is Prime? :beats-me-man:
Like that only those condos >20 years old with surface car park can be considered Prime then? This just proves that your logic doesn't make any sense! :p
to me ... those condos in CCR that can afford to have ALL surface parking is Prime ...
only those who cannot afford to acquire enough land then build multi storey or basement parking ...
Patrickstar
17-02-14, 23:22
I think hamilton scotts lagi not prime, the car has to be dragged up to your unit :p
to me ... those condos in CCR that can afford to have ALL surface parking is Prime ...
only those who cannot afford to acquire enough land then build multi storey or basement parking ...
I think hamilton scotts lagi not prime, the car has to be dragged up to your unit :p
Hi Patrick
You really have good sense of humor..:tsk-tsk:
Some prefer multi if area of protential flooding.
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