Private fund buys remaining 53 Grange Infinite units

[mr funny]

Published March 14, 2008

Private fund buys remaining 53 Grange Infinite units

Average price for the units, bought for $400m, is said to be $2,600-$2,700 psf

By KALPANA RASHIWALA


A PRIVATE fund managed by ARA Asset Management group is believed to have bought the remaining 53 units at Chip Eng Seng's and Citadel's Grange Infinite freehold condo project for almost $400 million.

Savills Singapore is believed to have brokered the latest bulk deal. The 68-unit condo is now fully sold.

The average price for typical three and four-bedroom units in the transaction is believed to be about $2,900 per square foot (psf).

However, for all 53 units sold under the deal, the average price is said to be slightly lower, at $2,600-$2,700 psf, as the three penthouses and other larger units included in the transaction were priced lower.

This marks a reversal of the previous trend, which set in around late-2006, of bigger units fetching higher psf prices than smaller ones.

'Now people are more wary and start to get concerned if the overall purchase quantum reaches a very high level, so the tendency is to pay lower psf prices for bigger units,' a property consultant said.

Another interesting feature of the bulk sale at Grange Infinite is that it is priced lower than individual units sold earlier in the project.

The initial 15 units in the condo fetched a median price of $3,201 psf in September, according to Urban Redevelopment Authority data.

The 15 apartments were sold at prices ranging from $3,025 to $3,299 psf.

This too marks a reversal of what was happening in December, when a Kuwait Finance House (KFH) unit bought 97 apartments at Guocoland's Goodwood Residence in the Bukit Timah/Scotts Road area for a median price of $3,200 psf - about 25-30 per cent above the $2,500 psf average price that Sui Generis was fetching at nearby Balmoral Crescent at the time.

GuocoLand said this week that KFH is letting the options on that purchase lapse, but added that the two sides are in talks with 'a view to a grant of fresh options for units in the development'.

A seasoned market watcher said overseas funds, particularly from Europe and Asia, remain interested in bulk purchases in Singapore condo projects - but only at fair valuations, that is, at a discount to the prices at which the units would be sold to individual investors.

'Right now, such investors are looking for mid to long-term plays. The mood for short-term play is not so positive,' said the market watcher.

'Of course, some developers may not want to sell units at a discount, unless sentiment in the market weakens, like now.'

The 36-storey Grange Infinite condo will come up on the former Grange Tower site next to the Indian High Commission.

The property launch scene has generally been quiet lately, as buyers adopt a wait-and-see approach amid US sub-prime jitters in the stock market.

However, some developers have been quietly releasing projects.

Frasers Centrepoint has sold 30 units at its freehold Martin Place Residences in the Kim Yam Road area since mid-January through private previews.

The 30 units were sold at an average price of about $1,800 psf after discounts.


http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/media/image/launched/2008-03-14/BT_IMAGES_GRANGE14.jpg

[Unregistered]

finally big bulk buying spree kick start again.
Let hope to see more of such long term investors take up more units in bulk. IR is getting closer, more such purchase will be seen. Foreigners believe in Spore transformation story, let them make big money in long run.
Local think otherwise, let it be, later they will complain to govt on unaffordable again, real born loser, always want easy way out, do not want to fight for their life, want thing for granted.

[Unregistered]

finally big bulk buying spree kick start again.
Let hope to see more of such long term investors take up more units in bulk. IR is getting closer, more such purchase will be seen. Foreigners believe in Spore transformation story, let them make big money in long run.
Local think otherwise, let it be, later they will complain to govt on unaffordable again, real born loser, always want easy way out, do not want to fight for their life, want thing for granted.


Yes, BUY BUY BUY, anything you see just grab.

[Unregistered]

finally big bulk buying spree kick start again.
Let hope to see more of such long term investors take up more units in bulk. IR is getting closer, more such purchase will be seen. Foreigners believe in Spore transformation story, let them make big money in long run.
Local think otherwise, let it be, later they will complain to govt on unaffordable again, real born loser, always want easy way out, do not want to fight for their life, want thing for granted.

yeah, buy and let the option lapse, like the Kuwait's case...

[Unregistered]

yeah, buy and let the option lapse, like the Kuwait's case...


why so frustrated? furious? panic? worry?
easy, take it or leave it. Responsible to your own decision, don't have to complain to MP, gov.....
option money is $mil to 10th of $mil....
market is coming back soon. Oil & gold is going to plunge, stock & US$ going to rise.....the result of all these is US economy is going to grow soon, bad news is ending, all the good news is in pipeline, you decide, wait or buy or sell.

[Unregistered]

why so frustrated? furious? panic? worry?
easy, take it or leave it. Responsible to your own decision, don't have to complain to MP, gov.....
option money is $mil to 10th of $mil....
market is coming back soon. Oil & gold is going to plunge, stock & US$ going to rise.....the result of all these is US economy is going to grow soon, bad news is ending, all the good news is in pipeline, you decide, wait or buy or sell.

Dream will always come true, may be in 10 years time.

[Unregistered]

Dream will always come true, may be in 10 years time.


yes, those wait to buy cheap, may be 50 yrs.

[Unregistered]

Wah ... they bought at big discount, more than 40%.

Prices have really come down already.

[Unregistered]

Wah ... they bought at big discount, more than 40%.

Prices have really come down already.

your math is K1 standard?
or you are spreading rumour in internet?

[Unregistered]

a lot of unregister are spreading rumours in this forum

can the admim do something about them

?

hopefully not to see another case of being hack by those

sour grape eaters again

[Unregistered]

a lot of unregister are spreading rumours in this forum

can the admim do something about them

?

hopefully not to see another case of being hack by those

sour grape eaters again

Today's Straits Times reported that "Jail may be norm for false online postings on firms".

However, Whitley Road Detention Centre may be the only chance for sour grapes to live in a prime district in their entire life.


The Straits Times

March 14, 2008

Jail may be norm for false online postings on firms

By Alvin Foo

LEGAL experts have warned people to be careful about what they say online about listed companies after a landmark judgment in Singapore.
Former share trader Able Wang Ziyi was jailed six months earlier this week for posting false, price-sensitive information online about Singapore-listed tech firm Datacraft Asia.

In 2004, he spread a rumour on a popular investor forum that the Commercial Affairs Department had raided Datacraft's offices.

He was charged and acquitted in 2006 but the prosecution appealed, and the verdict was overturned in favour of a guilty one by the High Court last November. Wang did not gain financially from spreading the rumour, although Datacraft stock closed 10 US cents down at US$1.38 that day.

Justice V.K. Rajah said in his ruling that it was especially important to penalise the spreading of false information, given 'the legislative and regulatory shift to a disclosure-based regime'.

He added: 'A fine would be inappropriate for offences such as the present one, where the potential harm caused can be enormous and devastating.'

Lawyers told The Straits Times that the case was significant on two counts - it was the first of its kind to result in a jail term and the first such case to reach the High Court.

Mr Nish Shetty, a partner at WongPartnership, said: 'The possibility of jail terms will be more readily accepted in future. It'll set a precedent at the sub courts for jail terms involving such cases.'

Another lawyer added: 'This sends a strong deterrent message. If you post anything factual, you have got to ensure that the facts are correct. If you post and it turns out to be wrong, you may be hauled up because you've posted recklessly.'

A stock-market analyst agreed: 'The authorities are sending out a strong message that they are treating market manipulation seriously. People will be scared to make such postings now.'

Wang was charged under Section 199 of the Securities and Futures Act. The maximum penalty he could have received was seven years' jail and a $250,000 fine.

The case has raised questions among industry players as to what constitutes a legal breach and where the line is drawn on Internet share forums.

Mr Shetty explained: 'Good news may also induce people to buy or sell shares. It's not an answer or a defence if you give good news that is false because it is still market manipulation. What matters is whether the news is accurate.'

In 2001, a securities dealer was fined $80,000 for posting a bogus notice on a financial website about a purported takeover of Venture Corp, then called Venture Manufacturing.

The use of online forums to discuss stocks has caught on in recent years. Shareinvestor's forum, for example, gets more than 1,000 posts a day. ShareJunction and Stocklion are also popular forums.

The Able Wang case has led to calls for such forums to be screened. Securities Investors Association of Singapore president David Gerald said: 'Owners of these sites must also exercise diligence and be responsible enough to disallow posting of such irresponsible statements on their sites.'

However, Shareinvestor chief executive Christopher Lee said: 'It doesn't make commercial sense for us to screen all the postings. We'll act only if a user complains.'

He added that the site went from being an open forum to a closed one about three years ago to 'develop and promote a community of responsible users'.

Mr Shetty's advice to investors?

'Behave responsibly - ensure any information disseminated is accurate. If there's any possibility of inaccuracy, then it's wise not to post it,' he said.

[email protected]



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


STRONG DETERRENT

'This sends a strong deterrent message. If you post anything factual, you have got to ensure that the facts are correct. If you post and it turns out to be wrong, you may be hauled up because you've posted recklessly.'

A LAWYER, on the jail sentence Able Wang received for posting false information on an online forum

[Unregistered]

a lot of unregister are spreading rumours in this forum

can the admim do something about them

?

hopefully not to see another case of being hack by those

sour grape eaters again

Ya delete their posts, i only want to hear good news, not bad news.

[Unregistered]

Ya delete their posts, i only want to hear good news, not bad news.

delete "your" posts, you mean?

[Unregistered]

Wah ... they bought at big discount, more than 40%.

Prices have really come down already.

your math is K1 standard?
or you are spreading rumour in internet?

One thing I notice about sour grapes, is that they're not very knowlegeable people.

I wonder which is the cause, and which the effect.

It's quite normal for bulk purchases to be done at a discount, whether for properties or other types of goods and services. In this case, an average price of $2650 psf versus a median price of $3201 psf for individual transacted units represents a 17.2% discount.

Even in July 2007, during the peak of the red hot property market, tycoon Ong Beng Seng's Hotel Properties Limited (HPL) purchased from Li Kashing's Japura Development an entire block of Costa Del Sol for an average price of $800 psf, even though the transacted price at that time for individual units was around $1000 psf. This represented a 20% discount.

I remember another sour grape confusing the two developments "Bayshore Park" and "The Bayshore". He claimed that no developer would want to buy Bayshore Park en bloc because it was blocked by Costa Del Sol and hence had no seaview, when in fact the development that was blocked was "The Bayshore".

The sour grapes may not be aware that they are making a fool of themselves discussing issues in an area in which they have little knowledge.

[Unregistered]

One thing I notice about sour grapes, is that they're not very knowlegeable people.

I wonder which is the cause, and which the effect.

It's quite normal for bulk purchases to be done at a discount, whether for properties or other types of goods and services. In this case, an average price of $2650 psf versus a median price of $3201 psf for individual transacted units represents a 17.2% discount.

Even in July 2007, during the peak of the red hot property market, tycoon Ong Beng Seng's Hotel Properties Limited (HPL) purchased from Li Kashing's Japura Development an entire block of Costa Del Sol for an average price of $800 psf, even though the transacted price at that time for individual units was around $1000 psf. This represented a 20% discount.

I remember another sour grape confusing the two developments "Bayshore Park" and "The Bayshore". He claimed that no developer would want to buy Bayshore Park en bloc because it was blocked by Costa Del Sol and hence had no seaview, when in fact the development that was blocked was "The Bayshore".

The sour grapes may not be aware that they are making a fool of themselves discussing issues in an area in which they have little knowledge.
Its happening now sentiment going down the drain by the day. Huge correction is coming. Watch out.

[Unregistered]

One thing I notice about sour grapes, is that they're not very knowlegeable people.

I wonder which is the cause, and which the effect.

"Not very knowlegeable" is the cause; while "sour grapes" is the effect.

If they are knowlegeable people, they won't end up as sour grapes in the first place.

[Unregistered]

Its happening now sentiment going down the drain by the day. Huge correction is coming. Watch out.

The fact that you use the word "is coming" means that the correction is not here yet. This explains why the sour grapes are so sour.

The stock market has come down around 30% since the sub-prime started, but the property market has hardly moved.

Sour grapes have no money to invest in properties, so they invest in shares. However, the stock market has gone down a lot and so the sour grapes have lost a lot of money. I know that because my portfolio of shares has gone down by 30% from $300,000 to $210,000.

So I've lost $90,000 in the stock market since the sub-prime started, and I expect the sour grapes to have suffered the same fate as me where the share market is concerned.

However, $90,000 is a small proportion of my networth as I have around $4 million worth of properties. The stock market might have gone down 30% but the price of properties are still holding quite well.

So the sour grapes are fuming mad that they have lost so much money, while those who have invested in properties have not lost a single cent so far. So they are hoping that the property market will collapse as well.

They desperately need the property market to correct around 30% before they will feel the sun come out in their life again.

I can understand their psychology.

[Unregistered]

The fact that you use the word "is coming" means that the correction is not here yet. This explains why the sour grapes are so sour.

The stock market has come down around 30% since the sub-prime started, but the property market has hardly moved.

Sour grapes have no money to invest in properties, so they invest in shares. However, the stock market has gone down a lot and so the sour grapes have lost a lot of money. I know that because my portfolio of shares has gone down by 30% from $300,000 to $210,000.

So I've lost $90,000 in the stock market since the sub-prime started, and I expect the sour grapes to have suffered the same fate as me where the share market is concerned.

However, $90,000 is a small proportion of my networth as I have around $4 million worth of properties. The stock market might have gone down 30% but the price of properties are still holding quite well.

So the sour grapes are fuming mad that they have lost so much money, while those who have invested in properties have not lost a single cent so far. So they are hoping that the property market will collapse as well.

They desperately need the property market to correct around 30% before they will feel the sun come out in their life again.

I can understand their psychology.
Haha what a moron..talking abt 4M$. What is 4M$ now? Just one property would have appreciated to that value unless you are in the mass market. Empty vessels make the most noise. Haha have to blow and scream about 4M$ lol...never seen such a pathetic moron.

[Unregistered]

The fact that you use the word "is coming" means that the correction is not here yet. This explains why the sour grapes are so sour.

The stock market has come down around 30% since the sub-prime started, but the property market has hardly moved.

Sour grapes have no money to invest in properties, so they invest in shares. However, the stock market has gone down a lot and so the sour grapes have lost a lot of money. I know that because my portfolio of shares has gone down by 30% from $300,000 to $210,000.

So I've lost $90,000 in the stock market since the sub-prime started, and I expect the sour grapes to have suffered the same fate as me where the share market is concerned.

However, $90,000 is a small proportion of my networth as I have around $4 million worth of properties. The stock market might have gone down 30% but the price of properties are still holding quite well.

So the sour grapes are fuming mad that they have lost so much money, while those who have invested in properties have not lost a single cent so far. So they are hoping that the property market will collapse as well.

They desperately need the property market to correct around 30% before they will feel the sun come out in their life again.

I can understand their psychology.
YES WE UNDERSTAND YOUR SICK PSYCHOLOGY.

[Unregistered]

Its happening now sentiment going down the drain by the day. Huge correction is coming. Watch out.Yes brother BS in dire straits. Others would follow I am sure. Credit markets will drive away buyers. Big Big correction already has arrived. Kuwait Finance is smart to cut losses.

[Unregistered]

Bear Stearns Gets Emergency Funds From JPMorgan, Fed

By Yalman Onaran

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Bear Stearns Cos., teetering on the brink of collapse from a lack of cash, got emergency funding from the Federal Reserve and JPMorgan Chase & Co. in the largest government bailout of a U.S. securities firm.

After denying earlier this week that access to capital was at risk, Bear Stearns Chief Executive Officer Alan Schwartz said today that the 85-year-old company's cash position had ``significantly deteriorated'' in the past 24 hours. The central bank agreed to provide financing through JPMorgan for up to 28 days, the bank said in a statement today.

A person close to JPMorgan said the bank, led by Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, would be interested in buying Bear Stearns's prime brokerage unit, which provides loans and processes trades for hedge funds.

The Fed acted to prevent the failure of the second-biggest underwriter of U.S. mortgage bonds and forestall a potential market panic as losses by banks and brokers reached $195 billion and stocks plunged for a third day this week. JPMorgan, which has suffered fewer losses than rivals during the credit crisis, may end up owning all or part of Bear Stearns, analysts speculated.

``I don't think they can afford to let Bear go,'' said Charles Geisst, the author of ``100 Years on Wall Street,'' referring to the New York Fed bailout. ``At this particular moment in time, it would be a devastating blow to the markets.''

`Market Rumors'

Bear Stearns, founded in 1923, acted in response to ``market rumors'' of a liquidity crisis, CEO Schwartz, 57, said in a separate statement. He said earlier this week that the company's ``liquidity cushion'' was sufficient to weather the credit-market contraction. Traders have been reluctant to engage in long-term transactions with Bear Stearns as the counterparty, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday.

``We have tried to confront and dispel these rumors and parse fact from fiction,'' Schwartz, who was named CEO less than three months ago, said in the New York-based company's statement today. ``Nevertheless, amidst this market chatter, our liquidity position in the last 24 hours had significantly deteriorated.''

The announcement caused financial shares to plunge, with Bear Stearns tumbling a record 47 percent to $30 at 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The stock has lost 66 percent of its value this year. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. also led declines as all 10 industry groups in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell. Lehman, the biggest underwriter of U.S. mortgage bonds, said it obtained a $2 billion, three-year credit line from 40 banks.

Hedge Fund Failure

Bear Stearns's long-term counterparty credit rating was reduced three levels to BBB by Standard & Poor's. The rating may be cut further, New York-based S&P said. It lowered the short- term rating to A3 from A1. Moody's Investors Service also downgraded the company's long-term rating to Baa1 from A2.

Bear Stearns, which first sold shares to the public in 1985, helped trigger a crash in the market for home loans to borrowers with blemished credit histories after two of its hedge funds collapsed in July. The failure of the two funds, which invested in securities linked to subprime mortgages, prompted a sell-off of the assets, which in turn led investors to shun other high-yield debt.

Schwartz, an executive with more than 30 years of experience at Bear Stearns, was the hand-picked choice of his predecessor, James ``Jimmy'' Cayne, 74, who remains non- executive chairman of the firm. Cayne stepped down after reporting an $854 million fourth-quarter loss, the first in the company's history.

For Sale

On a conference call with analysts and investors after today's announcement, Schwartz said the company's book value was ``fundamentally'' unchanged. Clients have continued to withdraw funds today, he said.

The firm has retained investment bank Lazard Ltd. to seek ``strategic alternatives,'' Schwartz said. Bear Stearns said it's also in talks with New York-based JPMorgan about long-term funding.

Steven Black, JPMorgan's co-head of investment banking, said on Feb. 27 that the bank was considering acquiring a prime brokerage that was for sale then. He didn't name the seller. Bank of America, based in Charlotte, North Carolina, said on Jan. 15 that it planned to sell its prime brokerage.

``There happens to be one for sale and we are looking at it,'' Black said at a JPMorgan investor conference in New York.

The Bear Stearns bailout was announced hours before President George W. Bush delivered a speech on the U.S. economic outlook.

`Good Pockets'

``Our economy obviously is going through a tough time,'' Bush said to business and finance leaders at the Economic Club of New York. ``In the long run, I'm confident our economy will continue to grow because the foundation is solid.''

Bear Stearns led Wall Street shares lower this year as the world's largest lenders and securities firms wrote down assets linked to the subprime mortgage market. Analysts in the past month have lowered expectations for earnings in the first quarter. JPMorgan has posted $3.7 billion in writedowns, a fraction of the $22.4 billion reported by Citigroup, the biggest U.S. bank by assets.

``JPMorgan is not loaded up with bad mortgage debt,'' said Vincent Farrell, principal at Scotsman Capital Management. ``Bear has a couple of very good pockets that any other firm would want to have if you can clear up the balance-sheet issue.''

Lewis's Bet

About a sixth of the firm's income came from packaging and trading mortgage bonds, a market that has been almost completely frozen since July.

``The future for Bear will be found in a forced marriage,'' said Charles Peabody, an analyst at Portales Partners LLC in New York who rates the stock a ``sell.'' ``Their business model is broken. They don't have the ability to go it alone.''

Joseph Lewis, the second-largest shareholder in Bear Stearns Cos., wasn't planning to reduce his stake, a person close to him said March 11. Lewis, a 71-year-old billionaire, views his 9.4 percent investment as long-term, the person said.

The Fed is taking on the credit risk from collateral supplied by Bear Stearns, which approached the central bank for emergency funds, Fed staff officials said today.

The Fed, under Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, voted unanimously to lend the funds through JPMorgan because it would be operationally simpler than a direct loan to Bear Stearns, the staff said on condition of anonymity. The regulator invoked a little-used law that allows it to make loans to corporations and private partnerships, which required a Board vote, according to the staffers.

Feather in the Cap

The Fed said it was ``monitoring market developments closely and will continue to provide liquidity as necessary to promote the orderly functioning of the financial system.''

The senior staffers declined to describe how large the loan to Bear Stearns was, and declined to say whether a private- sector bailout was attempted before the Fed extended credit through JPMorgan.

``The issue now is whether Bear Stearns customers will stick around,'' said Bruce Foerster, president of South Beach Capital Markets and a former Wall Street executive. ``Some others have gotten through the same kind of troubles, some ended up being shut down or sold. I'm hoping Bear can get past it.''

JPMorgan's participation in the bailout follows a long tradition at the bank of stepping in to rescue financial markets from crisis, according to Geisst, the Wall Street historian.

The bank has also profited from others' crises. JPMorgan got at least $725 million of revenue for taking on half the energy trades from collapsed hedge fund Amaranth Advisors LLC in 2006.

``It may be a feather in JPMorgan's cap that they're considered able to do this,'' Geisst said. ``The Fed could have chosen any number of banks to do this, and they chose JPMorgan.''

[Unregistered]

Lehman Brothers Obtains $2 Billion Bank Credit Line

By Andrew Frye

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. obtained a $2 billion credit line as the investment bank tried to blunt the stock's worst drop in almost eight years and assure investors the firm isn't short on cash.

The unsecured, three-year facility from 40 banks replaces an existing credit line, New York-based Lehman said today in a statement. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc., also based in New York, led the effort, the firm said.

Lehman announced the financing hours after Bear Stearns Cos. said it agreed to an emergency bailout by JPMorgan Chase and the New York Federal Reserve. Bear Stearns, which fell 47 percent in New York trading, said its cash position had ``significantly deteriorated'' in the past 24 hours, raising concern among investors that more financial firms may face a liquidity shortage.

``Nothing speaks like cash in a crisis, and they have the cash,'' said James Ellman, president of San Francisco-based Seacliff Capital LLC, which has about $150 million under management. ``In these financial markets, locking in three-year money is long-term. Usually we call it medium-term, but now that's very long-term.''

Lehman fell $6.73, or 15 percent, to $39.26 at 4:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the most since April 2000, leaving the stock down 40 percent this year.

``We are extremely pleased with the success of the syndicated facility and view this as a strong signal from the market and our key bank relationships,'' said Paolo Tonucci, Lehman's global treasurer, in the statement.

[Unregistered]

YES MORE COMING. ITS JUST THE TIP OF THE ICEBERG.

[Unregistered]

Harvard's Feldstein Says U.S. Economy in a Recession

By Matthew Leising and Steve Matthews

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein, a member of the group that dates business cycles in the U.S., said the nation has entered a recession that could be the worst since World War II

``I believe the U.S. economy is now in recession,'' Feldstein, president of the National Bureau of Economic Research, told the Futures Industry Association conference in Boca Raton, Florida. ``Could this become the worst recession we have seen in the postwar period? I think the answer is yes. I would emphasize the word `could.' ''

Feldstein's remarks represent the first time that a member of the NBER's business-cycle dating committee has publicly described the current downturn as a recession. The economy may not respond quickly to Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, and a package of tax rebates and investment incentives will offer only a temporary boost, he said.

Investors today raised their bets that the Fed will slash interest rates by a full percentage point next week after the central bank and JPMorgan Chase & Co. agreed to provide emergency funding to Bear Stearns Cos., the fifth-largest U.S. securities firm.

Bush administration officials including Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson have avoided saying the economy is in a recession.

``We have slowed down very significantly,'' Paulson said in a National Public Radio interview yesterday. ``I'm not getting into'' whether it is a recession.

The economy expanded 0.6 percent at an annualized pace last quarter, and economists surveyed by Bloomberg News this month predicted the pace will slow to 0.1 percent in January to March.

Job Losses

The U.S. unexpectedly lost jobs in February for the second consecutive month, a government report showed on March 7. A private report today showed consumer sentiment this month sank to a 16-year low.

``By almost every measure the U.S. economy is moving sideways or slightly down for the last few months,'' said Feldstein, who in January put the odds of a recession at more than 50 percent.

The collapse of the market for subprime loans, those given to borrowers with the weakest credit, has cost global financial companies $195 billion in asset writedowns and credit losses since the beginning of 2007. The losses have caused liquidity in financial markets to dry up.

Financial markets are exhibiting a pervasive ``unwillingness to trade'' and are suffering a ``loss of confidence'' about valuations of assets, said Feldstein, who is retiring as NBER president this year.

Rate-Cut Odds

Traders are betting there's a 50 percent chance the Federal Open Market Committee will cut its benchmark rate by a percentage point to 2 percent on March 18, according to trading in federal funds futures. That's up from a zero probability yesterday. The central bank has cut rates from 5.25 percent in August.

``Monetary policy is not likely to have the favorable traction in this slowdown that it has had in the past, in part because of what is happening in housing and in credit markets,'' Feldstein said.

A fiscal-stimulus package will help growth in the second half of the year, though that is ``not very likely to do more than cause a pause'' in the downturn, he said.

Revised Data

Committee members say any formal determination of a recession may still be months away, in part because economic data is frequently revised.

Feldstein said that while some data may be updated, it is ``very likely'' that reports will confirm a recession this year.

The Cambridge, Massachusetts-based bureau defines a recession as a ``significant'' decrease in activity over a sustained period of time. The declines would be visible in gross domestic product, payrolls, production, sales and incomes.

The committee says it usually determines a recession six to 18 months after one begins. It last declared a contraction officially in November 2001 that started in March of that year.

The U.S. has had 10 recessions since 1945 that have averaged about 10 months each. The longest lasted 16 months in 1981 and 1982 when the Federal Reserve, under Chairman Paul Volcker, raised interest rates to as much as 20 percent to battle soaring inflation.

``Given the retrospective nature of our process, no determination of a peak in activity is likely in the next few months,'' Robert Hall, a Stanford University economist who leads the NBER's business-cycle dating committee, said March 7.

``There is a good chance that when all the data are in they will show that we entered a recession in the first months of 2008,'' Harvard University economics professor Jeffrey Frankel, another member of the committee, said in an interview on March 12.

[Unregistered]

OH THATS A BAD SCENARIO. WHY IS THE OTHER MORON BRAGGING ABOUT PROPERTY. IS HE TRYING TO TALK IT UP? IT WONT WORK. FACTS ARE THERE TO SEE. IT IS GOING TO TAKE A HIT I AGREE.

[Unregistered]

all above talked so negative about economy & recession, sell your property away today or tomorrow, buy back at cheaper price later, sell fast fast.

Stock market is going to have a strong rally in few weeks time, I don't think all of you deserve to enjoy such economy fruits & result.

Just like in election, you vote opposition, yet you still want to get all the good thing from winner. You should pay for your wrong believe, decision & view.

Like in the war, lots of life gone, loser still got shame to survive?

[Unregistered]

These politicians, so funny. So scared to admit recession. 'Slow down'... 'difficult times'.... anything but the dreaded 'R'-word. They are so scared of Recession, macham like Voldermort, they'll use all kinds of other words to say 'he who must not be named'.

In Singapore property market. Already slowed down, correction round the corner, but people don't dare to say.... use 'consolidation', 'breather' etc.
Wait till it hits you in the face and drags you under.

[Unregistered]

Sigh.... i have been hearing of this price drop for the past many many months but i have not yet to see it....

Conclusion: PLEASE DON'T BULLSHIT AND KEEP YELLING ABOUT PRICE CORRECTIONS WHEN THERE IS NONE !!!!!


Hahahahahahaha........

[Unregistered]

I wanted so so badly for prices to come down so that I can sell my condos to this bunch of sour grapes to let them benefit a bit but I don't see it happening. I cannot sell them now, at a discount, to avoid spoiling the market. I got no choice but to continue waiting for market to come down so that I can sell them at the "so-called" market price.
So tough to be a nice guy nowadays....

[Unregistered]

These politicians, so funny. So scared to admit recession. 'Slow down'... 'difficult times'.... anything but the dreaded 'R'-word. They are so scared of Recession, macham like Voldermort, they'll use all kinds of other words to say 'he who must not be named'.

In Singapore property market. Already slowed down, correction round the corner, but people don't dare to say.... use 'consolidation', 'breather' etc.
Wait till it hits you in the face and drags you under.


You are naive.
People is helping you, you just stubbornly holding wrong view.
Just wait for 2-3 weeks, by early Apr, look at global stock market, you will be shocked, mark my words.
In 2-3 months, property market will not be the same again.
Just watch multi-US$Trillion parking outside now, rush into global stock market, will be interesting. Just watch, don't have to do anything.

[Unregistered]

Sigh.... i have been hearing of this price drop for the past many many months but i have not yet to see it....

Conclusion: PLEASE DON'T BULLSHIT AND KEEP YELLING ABOUT PRICE CORRECTIONS WHEN THERE IS NONE !!!!!


Hahahahahahaha........

It doesn't need a price correction. In 1997, the property market quiet down in June and withered. That's all!

[Unregistered]

These politicians, so funny. So scared to admit recession. 'Slow down'... 'difficult times'.... anything but the dreaded 'R'-word. They are so scared of Recession, macham like Voldermort, they'll use all kinds of other words to say 'he who must not be named'.

In Singapore property market. Already slowed down, correction round the corner, but people don't dare to say.... use 'consolidation', 'breather' etc.
Wait till it hits you in the face and drags you under.

It's been proven over and over again that falling home prices create more harm than good. For this reason, HK and Singapore has put the negative home equity issues that occur in the 1996-2005 period behind. The US needs to go through this phase.

[Unregistered]

These politicians, so funny. So scared to admit recession. 'Slow down'... 'difficult times'.... anything but the dreaded 'R'-word. They are so scared of Recession, macham like Voldermort, they'll use all kinds of other words to say 'he who must not be named'.

In Singapore property market. Already slowed down, correction round the corner, but people don't dare to say.... use 'consolidation', 'breather' etc.
Wait till it hits you in the face and drags you under.

Don't waste your time waiting for a sharp price correction in Singapore because it is not going to happen. You should invest in the US if you are so keen on buying rock bottom prices. Don't think you are going to get your discounted price looking at the state of our economy and buying power.

[Unregistered]

haha if everday worry about US

Why not just get out of Singapore

and migrate to states ?


What is the point of everyday talking about US, and

yet u are still staying in this tiny red dot?

I know

because u no money to migrate lar!!!


Dont be a idiot fool to post so many idiot comments in this forum

you think who the hack you are?

Want us to believe u?

Show us how much money u have lar

or else go sell backside might able to earn more money

to enable you to get a tiny small studio unit!!!!!

[Unregistered]

I wanted so so badly for prices to come down so that I can sell my condos to this bunch of sour grapes to let them benefit a bit but I don't see it happening. I cannot sell them now, at a discount, to avoid spoiling the market. I got no choice but to continue waiting for market to come down so that I can sell them at the "so-called" market price.
So tough to be a nice guy nowadays....
Haha you are right - The reason is that there are no buyers for your condo. Wooooohahahaha.

[Unregistered]

It doesn't need a price correction. In 1997, the property market quiet down in June and withered. That's all!
You are right. History repeating itself once again.

[Unregistered]

You are naive.
People is helping you, you just stubbornly holding wrong view.
Just wait for 2-3 weeks, by early Apr, look at global stock market, you will be shocked, mark my words.
In 2-3 months, property market will not be the same again.
Just watch multi-US$Trillion parking outside now, rush into global stock market, will be interesting. Just watch, don't have to do anything.
Right we will be shocked but you will get a rude shock. Haha when the R word is finally spoken of by the world leaders. By April exits would be blocked and no way to rush out. Mark my words.

[Unregistered]

India faces own subprime crisis as personal loan failures climb
By Joe Leahy in Mumbai

Published: March 13 2008 02:00 | Last updated: March 13 2008 02:00


India is beginning to experience its own domestic subprime crisis as banks
tighten lending procedures to try to curb rising delinquencies, particularly
in small unsecured personal loans.

India's financial system has so far been spared much of the pain of the
global subprime crisis because of the relatively small size of its banks and
their conservative investment focus overseas.

But persistent inflationary pressure has forced the Reserve Bank of India,
the central bank, to keep interest rates high, which in turn has hit retail
credit, from home loans to car and unsecured personal loans.

Overall loan growth in India, which has been on a downtrend since peaking at almost 40 per cent in early 2006, has slumped to about 20 per cent this year due to real lending rates that are among the highest in Asia at about 7 per cent, according to Credit Suisse.

The slowdown has been felt most acutely in what was formerly one of the
sector's fastest growing segments - personal unsecured loans, which include
credit cards and micro "small ticket" loans. The small ticket loans form
what analysts have loosely labelled India's "subprime" segment.

"The balance sheet is still performing well but delinquencies [of personal
loans] have been higher than one would have anticipated," said Sanjay Nayar, chief executive of Citigroup in India.

Citigroup does not disclose details of its non-performing loans in India but
Mr Nayar said it was rejigging some of its operations to better target
India's emerging middle classes.

While the growing defaults in small ticket loans have only a marginal impact on overall credit quality, they have scared Indian banks into becoming more conservative about their lending on the basis of reduced expectations for economic growth. Some had hoped that India's gross domestic product growth would exceed 10 per cent, but 8-9 per cent is now looking more realistic.

ICICI, India's largest private bank, withdrew from small ticket lending six
months ago and now only provides credit to the "prime personal loan"
segment, or facilities above about Rs100,000 ($2,500).

V. Vaidyanathan, executive director of ICICI Bank, said this business was
still performing strongly, although global credit tightening and ICICI's own
analysis had led it to become more cautious about lending in general. "It's
better to be conservative," he said.

[Unregistered]

Right we will be shocked but you will get a rude shock. Haha when the R word is finally spoken of by the world leaders. By April exits would be blocked and no way to rush out. Mark my words.


You are really naive, it's ok.

[Unregistered]

$4.2b in cash for Tuas Power.
Spore worth a lot including your property.


China Huaneng snaps up Tuas Power for $4.2b

Bid much higher than earlier estimates as genco sales get underway

(SINGAPORE) China's largest power producer, China Huaneng Group, has clinched Singapore's Tuas Power for S$4.2 billion, winning out against several other bidders in a hotly-contested sale.

Temasek Holdings said it signed a share purchase agreement yesterday with Huaneng subsidiary SinoSing Power for the 100 per cent sale of Tuas Power for a cash consideration of S$4.235 billion. The transaction is expected to be completed on March 24.

The Huaneng deal comes five months after the sales launch of Tuas Power last October - the first of the three generating companies (gencos) here to be divested by Temasek. The entire divestment exercise - scheduled to be completed by mid-2009 - is part of Singapore's move to liberalise the power sector.

Commenting on the successful Tuas Power divestment, Temasek's managing director of investments Wong Kim Yin said: 'China Huaneng is an established player with a strong record in the power business. Its proposal through SinoSing was the most attractive. It emerged as the winner based on clear considerations of price and acceptable commercial terms.'

He added: 'We have no doubt that the future growth and development of Tuas Power as an anchor power provider in Singapore will benefit from the experience and resources that China Huaneng brings.'

While Temasek has not, thus far, given details of the other bids for Tuas Power, a Reuters report citing banking sources said that Huaneng won out against its closest rivals Bahrain-based investment bank Arcapita and India's GMR Infrastructure.

There were reportedly 8-9 international contenders shortlisted for the final round of the sale, but not all submitted final bids. Malaysia's Tanjong plc and Li Ka-shing's Hongkong Electric were said to be among them.

Huaneng's move into Singapore's power sector reflects the aggressive overseas expansion and acquisition plans of Chinese corporations.

Huang Long, Huaneng's vice-president, said: 'This transaction represents a major step for China Huaneng in its goal to diversify its assets across geographies and technologies.

'Tuas Power is an important addition to our portfolio, and we are excited to begin working with the management and employees of this company, and to continuing the supply of reliable, environmentally friendly and competitively priced energy to the people of Singapore.'

China Huaneng, with total assets of over 325 billion renminbi (S$63.4 billion), has a total installed generating capacity of over 71,000 MW - or eight times the combined 9,070 MW of the three biggest Singapore gencos. It also owns a 50 per cent stake in Australian genco OzGen.

Commenting on the S$4 billion which Huaneng is paying, sources said that the price reflects the Chinese company's 'confidence in Tuas Power's growth story'.

It is double the estimated S$2 billion apiece which the market had earlier expected the Singapore gencos to fetch.

Tuas Power's president and CEO Lim Kong Puay told BT last September that in addition to supplying just 'plain vanilla' electricity into Singapore's power grid, the company was also planning to invest in a new stand-alone cogeneration plant on Jurong Island to supply additional utilities like steam and cooling water to the petrochemical plants there.

[Unregistered]

Inflation is really not bad in US.
With this flat CPI number, FOMC can have a good & last cut of 0.75%-1%, that is it & they have done with it for the time being, waiting for the good news of economy growth down the road.


Cheaper energy kept CPI in Feb flat: US Labor

Creates room for the Fed to lower rates more and stimulate the economy

(WASHINGTON) Cheaper energy helped keep overall consumer prices as well as vital core prices in check in February, the Labor Department said yesterday, a surprise after a period of run-ups had fanned worry about inflation.

The department said its Consumer Price Index, the most widely used gauge of inflation, was flat last month after rising 0.4 per cent in January.

Even more significantly, core consumer prices that exclude volatile food and energy items were unchanged after climbing 0.3 per cent a month earlier.

Analysts questioned whether the one-month report meant inflation pressures were truly easing but agreed it created breathing-room for the Federal Reserve to lower rates more aggressively to try to stimulate the economy.

'You got a decrease in energy prices, which obviously is fluky and won't last, you got a deceleration in some food items which isn't going to last and there was a deceleration in shelter,' commented Michael Darda, an economist with MKM Partners LLC. 'I doubt it will last.'

Retail gasoline prices moderated temporarily in February but have subsequently begun shooting higher, with predictions that prices consumers pay at the pump will hit US$4 a gallon by spring.

Meanwhile, US consumer confidence dipped in early March to fresh multiyear lows, confirming the economy is in recession, a private survey showed yesterday.

Adding to the downbeat outlook was a jump in worries over inflation outlook due to surging fuel prices, according to the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The surveys' index of confidence slipped to 70.5 in early March from the final February reading of 70.8.

'There was nearly unanimous agreement among consumers that the economy was now in recession,' said Richard Curtin, director of the survey, in a statement.

Consumers' view of inflation one year ahead, at 4.5 per cent, was up sharply from February's 3.6 per cent. Other than for the month after Hurricane Katrina in the fall of 2005, the latest one-year inflation reading was the highest since the 1990 recession, according to Mr Curtin.

In another development, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) President Martin Feldstein said yesterday that the US has entered a recession that could be 'substantially more severe' than recent ones.

'The situation is very bad, the situation is getting worse, and the risks are that it could get very bad,' Mr Feldstein said in a speech at the Futures Industry Association meeting in Boca Raton, Florida.

Mr Feldstein said the federal funds rate is headed for two per cent from the current three per cent. He added that lower short-term rates from the Federal Reserve would not have the same impact in the current downturn, in terms of reviving economic activity.

'There isn't much traction in monetary policy these days, I'm afraid, because of a lack of liquidity in the credit markets,' he said.

The Fed's new credit facility, announced on Tuesday, 'can help in a rather small way . . . but the underlying risks will remain with the institutions that borrow from the Fed, and this does nothing to change their capital,' Mr Feldstein noted. -- Reuters

[Unregistered]

Right we will be shocked but you will get a rude shock. Haha when the R word is finally spoken of by the world leaders. By April exits would be blocked and no way to rush out. Mark my words.

I feel so sad for people like you.
When the buying opportunity presents itself in front of you, you come out with tons of reasons not to buy. When this opportunity slowly slips away, you come out with tons of reasons to complain.
The other possibility is that you got NO guts and money to buy in the first place so you start turning all greeny-eyes and hoping to see market comes down just to get the kick out of it.
"Mark my words" you said. I think the whole world will stop evolving if people listens to your craps.

[Unregistered]

It doesn't need a price correction. In 1997, the property market quiet down in June and withered. That's all!

Another crappy statement.
In 1997, there are many issues that cause a slowdown in the local economy. You don't see it happening now in 2008.
Why don't you start bringing up the years which the likes of SAR, twin towers collapse, monetary crisis etc happened and say that these few years property market quiet down and withered.

[Unregistered]

It doesn't need a price correction. In 1997, the property market quiet down in June and withered. That's all!

If you are so damned smart, why don't you sell your unit now, rent a place, and buy when the prices start dropping ? It should be the most sensible thing to do for a smart alec like you.
If you are not doing so, then it will means that YOUR property price will also drop together with everyone else. If so, I don't quite understand why you want to see prices dropped, unlike of course, you don't own any property at all.

[Unregistered]

Bear Stearns crisis raises fears worse is yet to come

AFP - Saturday, March 15WASHINGTON (AFP) - - The near-collapse of US investment giant Bear Stearns and its Federal Reserve bailout on Friday heightened fears that the worst is not over for the spreading global credit crunch.

Bear Stearns, among the hardest hit by the collapse of the US subprime, or high-risk, mortgage market, said it was getting an emergency loan from JPMorgan Chase backed by the Federal Reserve after its liquidity position had "significantly deteriorated."

The Fed meanwhile pledged "to provide liquidity as necessary to promote the orderly functioning of the financial system," a statement that highlighted concerns about the credit squeeze and its wider impact on the banks.

Traders said Bear Stearns's need for emergency funds spooked investors as a credit crunch sweeps Wall Street and concerns mount that a housing slump and rising job cuts could push the US economy into a recession.

"Obviously, the Bear Stearns story rapidly gave rise to worries that it might not be the only firm with similar problems," said Gregory Drahuschak, analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott.

The Bear Stearns news "has sent reverberations throughout all markets worldwide, not only because this is another 'too big to fail' scenario, but also because it has strong implications for a domino effect in the already weakened financial services industry and beyond," added Sherry Cooper, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Bear Stearns's shares plunged 47 percent, with investors rattled only a day after an affiliate of US private equity giant, the Carlyle Group, defaulted on nearly 17 billion dollars of debt.

One of Carlyle's three co-founders, David Rubenstein, told the Washington Post newspaper that the current financial market turmoil "is deeper than anything we have seen since the Depression."

The Fed's announcement on liquidity came amid growing concerns about the outlook for a financial system left holding mortgage-backed securities in a market that has frozen because of the meltdown in US real estate.

JPMorgan Chase said the Federal Reserve of New York, through its discount window, would finance the rescue and that it was working closely with Bear Stearns on securing permanent financing or "other alternatives" for the bank.

The US central bank last week announced a new program that would allow firms to swap their mortgage securities for US Treasury bonds to help unblock the market but that program will not start until March 27.

The Fed has poured hundreds of billions of dollars into the financial system and slashed interest rates by 2.25 percentage points since September to battle the credit crunch that is threatening the US economy with recession.

President George W. Bush last month signed a 168-billion-dollar economic stimulus and the government and banks have introduced a number of initiatives to help homeowners faced with losing their homes amid tightening credit, job cuts and a slowing economy.

But the authorities' efforts to reassure the markets have fallen on deaf ears.

"It is time to stop pretending," said Bob Eisenbeis, the chief monetary economist at Cumberland's Advisors and a former executive vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

"Since last August the assertions regarding the turmoil in financial markets have been characterized as a temporary liquidity problem ... It is time to step back and recognize that the current situation isn't a liquidity issue and hasn't been for some time now.

"Rather there is uncertainty about the underlying quality of assets which is a solvency issue driven by a breakdown in highly leveraged positions," he said.

[Unregistered]

I feel so sad for people like you.
When the buying opportunity presents itself in front of you, you come out with tons of reasons not to buy. When this opportunity slowly slips away, you come out with tons of reasons to complain.
The other possibility is that you got NO guts and money to buy in the first place so you start turning all greeny-eyes and hoping to see market comes down just to get the kick out of it.
"Mark my words" you said. I think the whole world will stop evolving if people listens to your craps.
Pathetic repetition of comments.

[Unregistered]

I feel so sad for people like you.
When the buying opportunity presents itself in front of you, you come out with tons of reasons not to buy. When this opportunity slowly slips away, you come out with tons of reasons to complain.
The other possibility is that you got NO guts and money to buy in the first place so you start turning all greeny-eyes and hoping to see market comes down just to get the kick out of it.
"Mark my words" you said. I think the whole world will stop evolving if people listens to your craps.
Haha I dont feel sad for you. But I do feel sad for your family. They dont see what you are going to bring upon them with your blind faith.

[Unregistered]

Bear Stearns crisis raises fears worse is yet to come

AFP - Saturday, March 15WASHINGTON (AFP) - - The near-collapse of US investment giant Bear Stearns and its Federal Reserve bailout on Friday heightened fears that the worst is not over for the spreading global credit crunch.

Bear Stearns, among the hardest hit by the collapse of the US subprime, or high-risk, mortgage market, said it was getting an emergency loan from JPMorgan Chase backed by the Federal Reserve after its liquidity position had "significantly deteriorated."

The Fed meanwhile pledged "to provide liquidity as necessary to promote the orderly functioning of the financial system," a statement that highlighted concerns about the credit squeeze and its wider impact on the banks.

Traders said Bear Stearns's need for emergency funds spooked investors as a credit crunch sweeps Wall Street and concerns mount that a housing slump and rising job cuts could push the US economy into a recession.

"Obviously, the Bear Stearns story rapidly gave rise to worries that it might not be the only firm with similar problems," said Gregory Drahuschak, analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott.

The Bear Stearns news "has sent reverberations throughout all markets worldwide, not only because this is another 'too big to fail' scenario, but also because it has strong implications for a domino effect in the already weakened financial services industry and beyond," added Sherry Cooper, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Bear Stearns's shares plunged 47 percent, with investors rattled only a day after an affiliate of US private equity giant, the Carlyle Group, defaulted on nearly 17 billion dollars of debt.

One of Carlyle's three co-founders, David Rubenstein, told the Washington Post newspaper that the current financial market turmoil "is deeper than anything we have seen since the Depression."

The Fed's announcement on liquidity came amid growing concerns about the outlook for a financial system left holding mortgage-backed securities in a market that has frozen because of the meltdown in US real estate.

JPMorgan Chase said the Federal Reserve of New York, through its discount window, would finance the rescue and that it was working closely with Bear Stearns on securing permanent financing or "other alternatives" for the bank.

The US central bank last week announced a new program that would allow firms to swap their mortgage securities for US Treasury bonds to help unblock the market but that program will not start until March 27.

The Fed has poured hundreds of billions of dollars into the financial system and slashed interest rates by 2.25 percentage points since September to battle the credit crunch that is threatening the US economy with recession.

President George W. Bush last month signed a 168-billion-dollar economic stimulus and the government and banks have introduced a number of initiatives to help homeowners faced with losing their homes amid tightening credit, job cuts and a slowing economy.

But the authorities' efforts to reassure the markets have fallen on deaf ears.

"It is time to stop pretending," said Bob Eisenbeis, the chief monetary economist at Cumberland's Advisors and a former executive vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

"Since last August the assertions regarding the turmoil in financial markets have been characterized as a temporary liquidity problem ... It is time to step back and recognize that the current situation isn't a liquidity issue and hasn't been for some time now.

"Rather there is uncertainty about the underlying quality of assets which is a solvency issue driven by a breakdown in highly leveraged positions," he said.
Well well well I think its just the tip of the ice berg. What do you guys say?

[Unregistered]

yep yep lar

die lar die lar

so worry that everyday of US stuff

best dun work dun sleep dun eat

might as welll everything dun do lar

sit at home and wait for death to come lar!!

[Unregistered]

If you are so damned smart, why don't you sell your unit now, rent a place, and buy when the prices start dropping ? It should be the most sensible thing to do for a smart alec like you.
If you are not doing so, then it will means that YOUR property price will also drop together with everyone else. If so, I don't quite understand why you want to see prices dropped, unlike of course, you don't own any property at all.

Exactly, it is the reverse, I bought too much properties with deferred payment. Therefore, hoping for the property market to slide down to unload some burden b4 TOP. Please tell me which bank will extend loan to people like me?

[Unregistered]

Haha what a moron..talking abt 4M$. What is 4M$ now? Just one property would have appreciated to that value unless you are in the mass market. Empty vessels make the most noise. Haha have to blow and scream about 4M$ lol...never seen such a pathetic moron.

Yes you're right, I'm quite pathetic actually. In Singapore today, like you say, $4 M is really nothing.

To really live comfortably in Singapore, a person needs at least $10 M.

$5 M for a small bungalow, and another $5 M to move around in investments. This is the bare minimum.

A networth of $2 M to $10 M is a very crowded field where there are lots of people competing for air. Just look at the IRAS annual report 2006 on the number of people earning between $200 k to $500 k per year. There were 36,610 people, that's really shocking.

It's like when you take a lift and your height is average, e.g. between 1.7 m to 1.8 m, you keep smelling people's foul morning breath. However, if you are 1.9 m and above, you rise above the head of other people and that's where the fresh air is.

On the other hand, the lower you go, the more crowded and smelly it gets. A networth of between $500 k to $2 M is equivalent to a person of below average height taking a crowded lift and smelling everyone's armpit sweat. This range (networth $500 k to $2 M) is termed the "sandwiched middle-class" as almost everyone who owns an HDB or suburban condo belongs to this class. I am glad I have risen above this, as smelling foul morning breath is still better than smelling armpit sweat.

For a networth below $500 K, the air clears up again because that's where the legs and buttocks are. However, here you have to be careful because the fart can be very smelly. Here is where the empty vessel makes the most noise, but the most smelly vessel makes the least noise.

响屁不臭，臭屁不响。

[Unregistered]

Bear Stearns crisis raises fears worse is yet to come

AFP - Saturday, March 15WASHINGTON (AFP) - - The near-collapse of US investment giant Bear Stearns and its Federal Reserve bailout on Friday heightened fears that the worst is not over for the spreading global credit crunch.

Bear Stearns, among the hardest hit by the collapse of the US subprime, or high-risk, mortgage market, said it was getting an emergency loan from JPMorgan Chase backed by the Federal Reserve after its liquidity position had "significantly deteriorated."

The Fed meanwhile pledged "to provide liquidity as necessary to promote the orderly functioning of the financial system," a statement that highlighted concerns about the credit squeeze and its wider impact on the banks.

Traders said Bear Stearns's need for emergency funds spooked investors as a credit crunch sweeps Wall Street and concerns mount that a housing slump and rising job cuts could push the US economy into a recession.

"Obviously, the Bear Stearns story rapidly gave rise to worries that it might not be the only firm with similar problems," said Gregory Drahuschak, analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott.

The Bear Stearns news "has sent reverberations throughout all markets worldwide, not only because this is another 'too big to fail' scenario, but also because it has strong implications for a domino effect in the already weakened financial services industry and beyond," added Sherry Cooper, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Bear Stearns's shares plunged 47 percent, with investors rattled only a day after an affiliate of US private equity giant, the Carlyle Group, defaulted on nearly 17 billion dollars of debt.

One of Carlyle's three co-founders, David Rubenstein, told the Washington Post newspaper that the current financial market turmoil "is deeper than anything we have seen since the Depression."

The Fed's announcement on liquidity came amid growing concerns about the outlook for a financial system left holding mortgage-backed securities in a market that has frozen because of the meltdown in US real estate.

JPMorgan Chase said the Federal Reserve of New York, through its discount window, would finance the rescue and that it was working closely with Bear Stearns on securing permanent financing or "other alternatives" for the bank.

The US central bank last week announced a new program that would allow firms to swap their mortgage securities for US Treasury bonds to help unblock the market but that program will not start until March 27.

The Fed has poured hundreds of billions of dollars into the financial system and slashed interest rates by 2.25 percentage points since September to battle the credit crunch that is threatening the US economy with recession.

President George W. Bush last month signed a 168-billion-dollar economic stimulus and the government and banks have introduced a number of initiatives to help homeowners faced with losing their homes amid tightening credit, job cuts and a slowing economy.

But the authorities' efforts to reassure the markets have fallen on deaf ears.

"It is time to stop pretending," said Bob Eisenbeis, the chief monetary economist at Cumberland's Advisors and a former executive vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

"Since last August the assertions regarding the turmoil in financial markets have been characterized as a temporary liquidity problem ... It is time to step back and recognize that the current situation isn't a liquidity issue and hasn't been for some time now.

"Rather there is uncertainty about the underlying quality of assets which is a solvency issue driven by a breakdown in highly leveraged positions," he said.

If I remember correctly, this subprime mess started around August 2007 (I remember it was National Day period) so it had already been 7 months.

Yet our property market has proven to be resilient. Transactions have come down and the market has quieten a lot, but prices have not.

A lot of peopole here have been posting news after news after news of the US subprime ad nauseam, but the property market is still firm. You can check up the SISV Realink website to confirm yourself.

Reminds me of the big bad woof huffing and puffing at the third little pig's brick house.

The first little pig built his house out of straw because it was the easiest thing to do.

The second little pig built his house out of sticks. This was a little bit stronger than a straw house.

The third little pig built his house out of bricks.

[Unregistered]

Well well well I think its just the tip of the ice berg. What do you guys say?


To born loser, it is tip of iceberg.
To wise guy, it's last drop of iceberg.
Next Friday you will know the result.
End of next month, you will agree.
End of the year, you will complain to gov again, that is the different between above two. I don't know why gov still want to entertain such noise? purely wasting taxpayer money, opportunity is there, they say crash, price move up, they complain.

[Unregistered]

This is real wise guy.
Buy low, sell high.
Thst is the difference between wise & born loser, they do not have sense of value.


碧斯：港美股跌過龍
16/03/2008




摩 根 士 丹 利 前 首 席 環 球 投 資 策 略 師 巴 頓 ‧ 碧 斯 （ Barton Biggs ） 表 示 ， 近 期 美 股的 調 整 顯 然 跌 得 過 分 ， 他 預 期 ， 道 指 近 期 將 可 以 回 升 1,000 點 ， 港 股 亦 將 見 底 回 升。 他 並 強 調 市 場 人 士 現 正 在 財 務 恐 慌 之 中 ， 但 一 個 巨 大 的 上 升 平 台 正 在 建 立 ， 同 時碧 斯 也 不 相 信 經 濟 正 在 衰 退 當 中 ， 現 時 亦 不 是 世 界 末 日 。 不 過 ， 本 港 證 券 界 人 士 並不 認 同 碧 斯 的 樂 觀 言 論 ， 認 為 目 前 美 股 、 港 股 均 是 「 低 處 未 算 低 」 。

作為 大 摩 前 任 星 級 分 析 員 ， 碧 斯 現 時 正 掌 管 資 產 達 15 億 美 元 的 對 沖 基 金 Traxis Partners ， 他 接 受 《 彭 博 通 訊 社 》 電 話 訪 問 時 稱 ： 「 我 指 的 升 市 ， 並 不 只 是 300 、 400 點 ， 而 是 1,000 點 道 指 。 未 知 道 本 周 或 下 周 可 以 大 升 ， 但 市 況 目 前 瘋 了 ， 並且 已 經 跌 得 過 分 。 」

碧 斯 同 時 認 為 ， 由 德 國 以 至 香 港 的 股 票 市 場 ， 經 歷 今 年 市 況 波 動 後 ， 將 會 見 底 回 升 。

全 球 正 值 入 市 時 機
碧 斯 又 稱 ： 「 我 們 正 處 真 正 重 要 時 刻 ， 現 時 應 是 在 全 球 市 場 購 入 股 票 ， 而 不 是 沽 售 的 時 候 。 」

自 去 年 十 月 起 ， 道 指 累 計 下 挫 近 16% 至 11,951 點 。 今 次 碧 斯 對 道 指 的 1,000 點 升 幅 預 測 ， 若 按 上 周 五 收 市 計 算 ， 即 是 有 近 8.4% 的 上 升 空 間 。

上 周 五 道 指 下 挫 主 要 受 美 國 第 五 大 投 資 銀 行 貝 爾 斯 登 因 資 金 緊 張 ， 需 要 聯 儲 局 及 摩根 大 通 出 手 注 資 幫 助 所 影 響 。 美 股 三 大 指 數 跌 超 過 1% 至 2% ， 當 中 道 指 開 市 早 段 一度 跌 超 過 300 點 ， 收 報 11,951 點 ， 跌 194 點 。 納 斯 達 克 指 數 收 2,212 點 ， 跌 51 點， 標 準 普 爾 500 指 數 收 市 報 1,288 點 ， 跌 27 點 ， 跌 幅 2.1% 。

道 指 全 周 仍 升 0.5%
總 結 全 星 期 ， 道 指 上 升 0.5% ， 納 指 沒 有 升 跌 ， 而 標 普 500 指 數 就 跌 0.4% 。 貝 爾 斯 登 股 價 一 度 下 挫 五 成 ， 收 市 仍 跌 近 46% ， 報 30.85 美 元 。

對 於 市 場 的 恐 慌 情 況 ， 碧 斯 指 市 況 在 谷 底 時 ， 市 場 一 般 是 在 恐 慌 之 中 ， 不 相 信 美 國 經 濟 正 步 入 衰 退 ， 也 不 是 世 界 末 日 來 臨 。

在 國 際 股 壇 享 負 盛 名 的 碧 斯 ， 成 功 預 言 科 網 泡 沫 爆 破 ， 並 多 次 估 中 美 股 走 勢 ， 他 去年 三 月 估 美 股 見 底 ， 其 後 四 個 月 果 然 勁 升 16 ％ 。 他 預 測 道 指 全 年 升 19 ％ ， 但 結 果只 升 了 6.4 ％ 。

然 而 ， 對 於 碧 斯 的 言 論 ， 凱 基 證 券 營 運 總 裁 鄺 民 彬 認 為 ， 美 股 、 港 股 均 是 「 低 處 未算 低 」 ： 「 美 股 雖 可 以 升 返 1,000 點 ， 但 上 完 之 後 都 可 以 再 跌 落 去 。 美 股 已 踏 入 熊市 ， 未 必 一 次 過 跌 晒 ， 中 間 可 以 有 小 反 彈 。 」

花 旗 估 周 二 減 息 1 厘
利 率 期 貨 顯 示 ， 美 國 周 二 減 息 一 厘 的 機 會 率 大 約 為 60% ， 而 日 前 反 映 減 息 一 厘 的 機 會 率 則 為 零 。 不 過 ， 花 旗 估 計 ， 聯 儲 局 周 二 最 少 會 減 息 一 厘 。

資 金 流 入 債 市 ， 兩 年 期 國 庫 券 孳 息 率 下 降 至 1.46% ， 較 早 時 更 曾 跌 至 1.38% ， 是 ○ 三 年 中 以 來 最 低 。 受 美 股 拖 累 ， 港 股 美 預 託 證 券 （ ADR ） 上 周 五 普 遍 下 跌 ， 控 （ 0005 ） 和 中 移 （ 0941 ） 分 別 較 本 港 收 市 跌 2.26% 和 1.64% 。 於 上 周 五 急 升 的 港 燈 （ 0006 ） ， 其 ADR 較 本 港 收 市 大 跌 5% 。

[Unregistered]

If I remember correctly, this subprime mess started around August 2007 (I remember it was National Day period) so it had already been 7 months.

Yet our property market has proven to be resilient. Transactions have come down and the market has quieten a lot, but prices have not.

A lot of peopole here have been posting news after news after news of the US subprime ad nauseam, but the property market is still firm. You can check up the SISV Realink website to confirm yourself.

Reminds me of the big bad woof huffing and puffing at the third little pig's brick house.

The first little pig built his house out of straw because it was the easiest thing to do.

The second little pig built his house out of sticks. This was a little bit stronger than a straw house.

The third little pig built his house out of bricks.
I FEEL SORRY FOR THIS PIG BUT FEEL SAD FOR HIS PIGLINGS.

[Unregistered]

If I remember correctly, this subprime mess started around August 2007 (I remember it was National Day period) so it had already been 7 months.

Yet our property market has proven to be resilient. Transactions have come down and the market has quieten a lot, but prices have not.

A lot of peopole here have been posting news after news after news of the US subprime ad nauseam, but the property market is still firm. You can check up the SISV Realink website to confirm yourself.

Reminds me of the big bad woof huffing and puffing at the third little pig's brick house.

The first little pig built his house out of straw because it was the easiest thing to do.

The second little pig built his house out of sticks. This was a little bit stronger than a straw house.

The third little pig built his house out of bricks.
to the pig the property market is firm. More and more defaults coming. Soon it will reach a stage when it is out of the Feds hands to bail them out. The banks come knocking on the pigs home. The pig thinks that it is the 'woof'. But no place to hide. All exits blocked. No chance to rush out. The piglings get scared and scream at the pig. The mother pig asks for divorce. The piglings starve. A happy pig family in ruins just because of the foolish pig.

[Unregistered]

[QUOTE=Unregistered]to the pig the property market is firm. More and more defaults coming. Soon it will reach a stage when it is out of the Feds hands to bail them out. The banks come knocking on the pigs home. The pig thinks that it is the 'woof'. But no

clap clap clap!!

very well say!!!

I think you should go and be a children story teller teacher!!!

in kindergarden!!!!!!!!!!

The kids will like your pig story , but just make sure

u dun end up like a pig!!!

haha

[Unregistered]

When property prices drop, a particular group of people will start to act smart and scream "Better don't buy, recession coming. Prices will drop further."
When property prices start to recover, this same group of people will start to scream "Aiyah, prices are so high now. I should have bought during the downturn. Never mind, I wait for the next downturn to buy. Surely will come again."
When property prices start to drop again, the comments from this group will be "Wow, how come drop so much. Not safe to buy now. Better wait and see first."
This goes on and on and on....

I know this group of people all too well. Because I got some colleagues who behave exactly like this. In the end, all I hear is their supposedly 'smart' advices which is actually shallow and empty and bring one to nothing. I have since avoid talking about properties with them.
And the differences between me and them ? Well, I definitely have more cash to spend from the profits I make.
Will I make a loss in future ? Maybe, but at least I have some excitements in my life instead of all talking and no actions.

[Unregistered]

[QUOTE=Unregistered]to the pig the property market is firm. More and more defaults coming. Soon it will reach a stage when it is out of the Feds hands to bail them out. The banks come knocking on the pigs home. The pig thinks that it is the 'woof'. But no

clap clap clap!!

very well say!!!

I think you should go and be a children story teller teacher!!!

in kindergarden!!!!!!!!!!

The kids will like your pig story , but just make sure

u dun end up like a pig!!!

haha
Kindergarden? Where can I find this garden? Oh the standard of those talking big here......

[Unregistered]

[QUOTE=Unregistered]
Kindergarden? Where can I find this garden? Oh the standard of those talking big here......

In case you still do not know, sour grapes could actually be more highly educated than those who earn big bucks from properties.

That's why they are so sour.

Those who spell "kindergarten" losing out in life to those who spell "kindergarden".

The sour grapes are, very likely in my analysis, people who've got a tertiary qualification holding a professional job but finding that their networth is only a small fraction of their less educated cousins who started their own business and who invested heavily in properties.

They suddenly realised that they have now lost out to those whom they have beaten earlier in life.

How can someone who spells "kindergarten" correctly lose out to someone who can't?

Slowly, the bitterness turns the sour grapes into bitter grapes.

ps. I'm not the one who posted about the "kindergarden", but since Mr. Kindergarden so kindly supported my post on the three little pigs ...

[Unregistered]

When property prices drop, a particular group of people will start to act smart and scream "Better don't buy, recession coming. Prices will drop further."
When property prices start to recover, this same group of people will start to scream "Aiyah, prices are so high now. I should have bought during the downturn. Never mind, I wait for the next downturn to buy. Surely will come again."
When property prices start to drop again, the comments from this group will be "Wow, how come drop so much. Not safe to buy now. Better wait and see first."
This goes on and on and on....

I know this group of people all too well. Because I got some colleagues who behave exactly like this. In the end, all I hear is their supposedly 'smart' advices which is actually shallow and empty and bring one to nothing. I have since avoid talking about properties with them.
And the differences between me and them ? Well, I definitely have more cash to spend from the profits I make.
Will I make a loss in future ? Maybe, but at least I have some excitements in my life instead of all talking and no actions.


how to lose money in buying property in Spore if you can hold for 10 years?
Eventually you only make big money for your retirement, better & comfortable life.
For current market, if you can hold till IR ready in 2 years time, you will not lose at all, better still with strong rental, low loan rate of 1-2%, you can have good pocket money. For those sour grape, continue to shout, market moves on.

[Unregistered]

how to lose money in buying property in Spore if you can hold for 10 years?
Eventually you only make big money for your retirement, better & comfortable life.
For current market, if you can hold till IR ready in 2 years time, you will not lose at all, better still with strong rental, low loan rate of 1-2%, you can have good pocket money. For those sour grape, continue to shout, market moves on.

I think the "sour grapes" here should be more accurately described as "bitter grapes".

If you check up the definition of "sour grapes", it means "false denial of desire for something sought but not acquired; to denigrate and feign disdain for that which one could not attain"

So a real "sour grape" will post something like "Condos are not nice to live in. Not convenient. HDB is better because downstairs got lots of provision shops and coffee shops ... etc."

The "bitter grapes" here are just simply very bitter about the property market having gone up so much in the past two years, and constantly praying that it will crash.

So they are "bitter grapes" and not "sour grapes".

[Unregistered]

Below is a Sunday Times article about the opposite of a "sour grape".

He is a "sweet apple" - the type of new citizens whom Singapore desires.

Singapore should attract more of this type of people, so that the country as a whole will become more valuable.

Otherwise with the whole place filled with useless "sour grapes" who have no money to buy property, the property market may possibly collapse (exactly like the way they wish).

So hopefully these new "sweet apples" will come in to flush away the "sour grapes" to Johor Bahru. They can go there to cause Johor property to collapse. That is none of my business.

旧的不去，新的不来。


The Straits Times

March 16, 2008

Designing a house begins with the site it sits on

Each has its own look and feel, which dictate the design, developer Satinder Garcha says

By Joyce Teo

http://www.straitstimes.com//STI/STIMEDIA/image/20080315/ST_SUNTIMES_1_CURRENT_MNYJTGARCHA2_8.jpg

http://www.straitstimes.com//STI/STIMEDIA/image/20080315/ST_SUNTIMES_1_CURRENT_MNYJTGARCHA1.jpg

AN AVID polo player - he is the captain of the Singapore team - Mr Satinder Garcha, 37, is also a landed property developer, albeit a relatively new one.

In the three years since his first Singapore property was completed, he has built up a sizeable portfolio of 22 properties, many of which are being developed. He will build more on a $78.7 million strip of land at Sentosa Cove.

Mr Garcha, a New Delhi-born Singaporean, came to the Republic after selling his Silicon Valley information technology services company, People.com, in 2000.

The very first house he built in the Republic - a stately bungalow in White House Park that he and his family now live in - was featured in a coffee-table book titled 25 Tropical Houses: In Singapore And Malaysia.

Mr Garcha also managed to secure the services of world-renowned architect Zaha Hadid for two bungalows to be built on Nassim Road. Based in Britain, the Baghdad-born architect became, in 2004, the first woman to receive the Pritzker Architecture Prize.

[Unregistered]

My brother who works in the property industry told me that construction cost has risen to around $450 psf.

This is primarily due to the contnuous increase in steel price and labour costs, plus one off cement price hike due to Indonesia's sand ban.

China's voracious appetite for raw materials and minerals caused asset inflation throughout the world and a relentless rise in the Australian dollar due to its huge mineral resources.

At the same time, our construction of the two Integrated Resorts and MRT lines sucked away a lot of construction resources. Nowdays contractors are very busy and even crane operators are earning $8000 per month with overtime.

Can you imagine just the construction cost alone today is equal to the price of entire mass market condo a few years' back. That's not including land costs and developers' margins.

That's why developers are now being squeezed and their share price has fallen a lot.

But if you are holding the end product, i.e. a completed condo unit, then that means you are hedged against further raw material cost inflation.

And if the developers hold back or cancel launches, that means the supply will be even less.

Add to that the 80,000 new citizens and PRs coming in every year, I forsee a potentially explosive situation in the rental market.

The property market has been holding back recently due to the sub-prime issue, like an arrow on bow with a stretched string. Once the sub-prime blows over, the price is going to shoot through the sky.

[Unregistered]

My brother who works in the property industry told me that construction cost has risen to around $450 psf.

This is primarily due to the contnuous increase in steel price and labour costs, plus one off cement price hike due to Indonesia's sand ban.

China's voracious appetite for raw materials and minerals caused asset inflation throughout the world and a relentless rise in the Australian dollar due to its huge mineral resources.

At the same time, our construction of the two Integrated Resorts and MRT lines sucked away a lot of construction resources. Nowdays contractors are very busy and even crane operators are earning $8000 per month with overtime.

Can you imagine just the construction cost alone today is equal to the price of entire mass market condo a few years' back. That's not including land costs and developers' margins.

That's why developers are now being squeezed and their share price has fallen a lot.

But if you are holding the end product, i.e. a completed condo unit, then that means you are hedged against further raw material cost inflation.

And if the developers hold back or cancel launches, that means the supply will be even less.

Add to that the 80,000 new citizens and PRs coming in every year, I forsee a potentially explosive situation in the rental market.

The property market has been holding back recently due to the sub-prime issue, like an arrow on bow with a stretched string. Once the sub-prime blows over, the price is going to shoot through the sky.
Awesome analysis.
I can't agree more with you. Your analysis is honest and reflect objectively the ppty market situation in Singapore right now. A lot of ppl tend to ignore this fact and distracted too much by the situation in the global credit market. I believe many will be again caught by surprise when our ppty prices suddenly jump up by another 30% by mid of this year.
I am afraid those who are waiting at the sideline might hv to wait for the whole life. The price for being naive is very costly, "sour grapes".

[Unregistered]

My brother who works in the property industry told me that construction cost has risen to around $450 psf.

This is primarily due to the contnuous increase in steel price and labour costs, plus one off cement price hike due to Indonesia's sand ban.

China's voracious appetite for raw materials and minerals caused asset inflation throughout the world and a relentless rise in the Australian dollar due to its huge mineral resources.

At the same time, our construction of the two Integrated Resorts and MRT lines sucked away a lot of construction resources. Nowdays contractors are very busy and even crane operators are earning $8000 per month with overtime.

Can you imagine just the construction cost alone today is equal to the price of entire mass market condo a few years' back. That's not including land costs and developers' margins.

That's why developers are now being squeezed and their share price has fallen a lot.

But if you are holding the end product, i.e. a completed condo unit, then that means you are hedged against further raw material cost inflation.

And if the developers hold back or cancel launches, that means the supply will be even less.

Add to that the 80,000 new citizens and PRs coming in every year, I forsee a potentially explosive situation in the rental market.

The property market has been holding back recently due to the sub-prime issue, like an arrow on bow with a stretched string. Once the sub-prime blows over, the price is going to shoot through the sky.

I appreciate it very much for your analysis but have a question that would like you to think about it. What if the construction cost become lower due to less activities around the world and the sub-prime issue gets worse. Are we still able to hold on to such exorbitant price of new home?

[Unregistered]

OH THATS A BAD SCENARIO. WHY IS THE OTHER MORON BRAGGING ABOUT PROPERTY. IS HE TRYING TO TALK IT UP? IT WONT WORK. FACTS ARE THERE TO SEE. IT IS GOING TO TAKE A HIT I AGREE.
This idiot hacked the forum and erased all the postings.
He still has the guts to come here and post his misrepresentations.

[Unregistered]

March 17, 2008

Property market remains sluggish - only half of new units sold in Feb

By Fiona Chan, Property Reporter


THE lethargy in the housing market continued last month, with only half of the new units launched snapped up by buyers.

Property developers launched 343 new homes in February but sold only 185, down from the 328 that they sold in January.

Among the best performers were Cosmo at Guillemard Crescent and Waterfront Waves at Bedok Reservoir.

Cosmo, which was almost sold out within a week of its launch, sold 41 of its 45 units at a median price of $1,098 per sq ft (psf). Waterfront Waves saw 26 units sold at a median $808 psf.

Generally, home prices still held steady, even rising in some cases. Where they fell, the dips were marginal.

At Hong Leong Holdings' Aalto in Jalan Kechil, three units were sold in January for a medain $2,078 psf.

Last month, two units were sold at higher prices: one at $2,336 psf and the other at $2,902 psf.

But prices dropped slightly at Mount Sophia Suites in Sophia Road. Twelve units were sold there at a median $1,719 psf in January, but only five were sold last month at a lower median price of $1,709 psf.
Not so bad lah !!

[Unregistered]

My brother who works in the property industry told me that construction cost has risen to around $450 psf.

This is primarily due to the contnuous increase in steel price and labour costs, plus one off cement price hike due to Indonesia's sand ban.

China's voracious appetite for raw materials and minerals caused asset inflation throughout the world and a relentless rise in the Australian dollar due to its huge mineral resources.

At the same time, our construction of the two Integrated Resorts and MRT lines sucked away a lot of construction resources. Nowdays contractors are very busy and even crane operators are earning $8000 per month with overtime.

Can you imagine just the construction cost alone today is equal to the price of entire mass market condo a few years' back. That's not including land costs and developers' margins.

That's why developers are now being squeezed and their share price has fallen a lot.

But if you are holding the end product, i.e. a completed condo unit, then that means you are hedged against further raw material cost inflation.

And if the developers hold back or cancel launches, that means the supply will be even less.

Add to that the 80,000 new citizens and PRs coming in every year, I forsee a potentially explosive situation in the rental market.

The property market has been holding back recently due to the sub-prime issue, like an arrow on bow with a stretched string. Once the sub-prime blows over, the price is going to shoot through the sky.


Don't bullshit, construction cost is not that high. Trying to talk up the price?

[Unregistered]

Don't bullshit, construction cost is not that high. Trying to talk up the price?80,000 will come. 100% sure ?

[Unregistered]

80,000 will come. 100% sure ?Big problem!Where are they going to stay? Hillton Hotel ? Hotel 81 ? Any suggestion ?

[Unregistered]

Don't bullshit, construction cost is not that high. Trying to talk up the price?

80,000 will come. 100% sure ?
Both of you can be assured that unlike the sour grapes, I do not pluck figures out of the air.

Regarding the first question above regarding construction costs, let me refer you to the following extract from The Business Times on 13 Feb 2007.

"CHYAU Fwu Group has unveiled plans for its upcoming super-luxury condominium on Grange Road, called Parkview Eclat, with prices expected to be around $3,000 per square foot (psf).

Construction costs will be $500-$600 psf for Chyau Fwu, which owns the Art Deco-inspired office building Parkview Square at Bugis. This is almost double the industry average construction costs of $300 psf."

Hence the $450 psf quoted by my brother is not unrealistic, considering that most developers, with the exception of SC Global which focuses exclusively on high end properties, undertake a range of projects spanning the mass market, mid market and luxury segments.

Also, notice that this article was published more than one year ago. In the mean time,

1. The full effect of Indonesia's sand ban saw "Concrete now costs as much as $200 per cubic metre, from $70 per cubic metre before the ban." (The Straits Times, 7 April 2007).

2. Steel price (Medium Steel Sections) climbed from USD 735 per metric tonne in Jan 2007 to USD 859 per metric tonne in Dec 2007, an increase of 16.8%.

Regarding the second question on number of immigrants per year, let me refer you to the following extract from ChannelNewsAsia on 27 Feb 2008:

"Last year, Singapore saw over 63,000 new PRs, an 11-per-cent increase from 2006; and the city-state also welcomed more than 17,000 new citizens, a 30-per-cent jump."

Adding 63,000 to 17,000 yields a total of 80,000.

[Unregistered]

Big problem!Where are they going to stay? Hillton Hotel ? Hotel 81 ? Any suggestion ?


They will come with family, so have to buy or rent as their parent is not here, cannot stay with them.

[Unregistered]

They will come with family, so have to buy or rent as their parent is not here, cannot stay with them.
How much are they going to earn? How many can afford $5,000 per month for rental?

[Unregistered]

It is true that construction costs have gone up, and that new units have to costs $200-300 psf more. So those who have bought their units in 2006 can charge correspondingly more.

But equally, it would be stupid to go into the market now to take over the inflated costs from someone and run the risk of a property price slide. Even if the property prices don't slide, one may not gain much at this stage.

There would be more opportunities in stocks.

[Unregistered]

Both of you can be assured that unlike the sour grapes, I do not pluck figures out of the air.

Regarding the first question above regarding construction costs, let me refer you to the following extract from The Business Times on 13 Feb 2007.

"CHYAU Fwu Group has unveiled plans for its upcoming super-luxury condominium on Grange Road, called Parkview Eclat, with prices expected to be around $3,000 per square foot (psf).

Construction costs will be $500-$600 psf for Chyau Fwu, which owns the Art Deco-inspired office building Parkview Square at Bugis. This is almost double the industry average construction costs of $300 psf."

Hence the $450 psf quoted by my brother is not unrealistic, considering that most developers, with the exception of SC Global which focuses exclusively on high end properties, undertake a range of projects spanning the mass market, mid market and luxury segments.

Also, notice that this article was published more than one year ago. In the mean time,

1. The full effect of Indonesia's sand ban saw "Concrete now costs as much as $200 per cubic metre, from $70 per cubic metre before the ban." (The Straits Times, 7 April 2007).

2. Steel price (Medium Steel Sections) climbed from USD 735 per metric tonne in Jan 2007 to USD 859 per metric tonne in Dec 2007, an increase of 16.8%.

Regarding the second question on number of immigrants per year, let me refer you to the following extract from ChannelNewsAsia on 27 Feb 2008:

"Last year, Singapore saw over 63,000 new PRs, an 11-per-cent increase from 2006; and the city-state also welcomed more than 17,000 new citizens, a 30-per-cent jump."

Adding 63,000 to 17,000 yields a total of 80,000.

Property market remains sluggish - only half of new units sold in Feb

By Fiona Chan, Property Reporter


THE lethargy in the housing market continued last month, with only half of the new units launched snapped up by buyers.

Property developers launched 343 new homes in February but sold only 185, down from the 328 that they sold in January.

Among the best performers were Cosmo at Guillemard Crescent and Waterfront Waves at Bedok Reservoir.

Cosmo, which was almost sold out within a week of its launch, sold 41 of its 45 units at a median price of $1,098 per sq ft (psf). Waterfront Waves saw 26 units sold at a median $808 psf.

Generally, home prices still held steady, even rising in some cases. Where they fell, the dips were marginal.

At Hong Leong Holdings' Aalto in Jalan Kechil, three units were sold in January for a medain $2,078 psf.

Last month, two units were sold at higher prices: one at $2,336 psf and the other at $2,902 psf.

But prices dropped slightly at Mount Sophia Suites in Sophia Road. Twelve units were sold there at a median $1,719 psf in January, but only five were sold last month at a lower median price of $1,709 psf.

[Unregistered]

80,000 will come. 100% sure ?
80000 will come 120000 will leave. Pink slips coming big time.

[Unregistered]

It is true that construction costs have gone up, and that new units have to costs $200-300 psf more. So those who have bought their units in 2006 can charge correspondingly more.

But equally, it would be stupid to go into the market now to take over the inflated costs from someone and run the risk of a property price slide. Even if the property prices don't slide, one may not gain much at this stage.

There would be more opportunities in stocks.

You should better check out the headline in "Business Times" today. It reported that HK had surged by more than 25% for the last 3 months. This is due to the panic buyers who saw by the high inflation coupled with the constant upward rental pressure. Ppl rushed in to buy their own home to hedge against the inflation.

I believe the situation mirror very closely here in Singapore. Ppl should not be distracted too much by the credit crunch in US and missed the big picture. Singapore ppty are going to surge up by at least 30% very soon.

[Unregistered]

Agree. As long as people got jobs, got pay, they will buy properties to hedge against inflation, either out of fear or greed. The low interest rate environment will be favourable. Stocks will also rise again when people realise money not invested is declining in value by the day because of inflation.

[Unregistered]

You should better check out the headline in "Business Times" today. It reported that HK had surged by more than 25% for the last 3 months. This is due to the panic buyers who saw by the high inflation coupled with the constant upward rental pressure. Ppl rushed in to buy their own home to hedge against the inflation.

I believe the situation mirror very closely here in Singapore. Ppl should not be distracted too much by the credit crunch in US and missed the big picture. Singapore ppty are going to surge up by at least 30% very soon.
Singapore is not stupid enough to follow HK. We won't panic like them because we have a better government who knows how to manage the economy.

[Unregistered]

Singapore is not stupid enough to follow HK. We won't panic like them because we have a better government who knows how to manage the economy.
Don't follow Hong Kong as the leading wealth management centre in Asia. Overtake them instead.

[Unregistered]

Singapore is not stupid enough to follow HK. We won't panic like them because we have a better government who knows how to manage the economy.

I hv no doubt that our govt is good in managing the economy. But to manage individual panic level? Is that also part of their responsibilities? I doubt that is.

[Unregistered]

Aiyoh ... my goodness, I can foresee what sort of response your post is going to get from the sour grapes.

I don't think he will believe you, because he probably lives in a world surrounded by people within the same social class.

The problem here, I believe, is that there are two classes of people talking to each other. That's why sometimes it turns out 牛头不对马嘴 (Crosstalk).

Let me post below some information from IRAS Annual Report 2006 (the latest available). I shall ignore those who earn less than $200,000 per year.

$200,001 to $300,000 per year: 23,092 taxpayers.
$300,001 to $400,000 per year: 9,257 taxpayers.
$400,001 to $500,000 per year: 4,259 taxpayers.
$500,001 to $1,000,000 per year: 5,759 taxpayers.
$1,000,001 and above per year: 2,121 taxpayers.

Total number of taxpayers earning more than $200,000 per year: 44,488.

There are 44,488 people in Singapore earning more than $200,000 per year.

What do we do with all these money? That is one problem. Keep in the bank? The interest is really, I repeat, really miserable.

Buy cars? It's a depreciating asset, and you only need one to get around.

Buy planes? That's for tycoons.

Finally, you know what we buy.

Every few years, when the money in the bank grows to a certain amount, there is an urge to use it.

The first thing that comes to mind is properties. It's like a hobby.
What not included here are tax-free foreign investors.

[Unregistered]

80,000 will come. 100% sure ?


Big problem!Where are they going to stay? Hillton Hotel ? Hotel 81 ? Any suggestion ?

If you look at the recent mad rush for HDB flats, you will know what the real situation is like. These applicants include the majority (I estimate 80%) of the foreign talents who migrated here. They are the HDB class.

What happens to those who are not successful in the balloting for a new HDB flat? They're unlikely to be renting at Ardmore Park or Hilton Hotel.

I also don't see any of them hiding under the canal in Eu Tong Sen Street, while our police after combing the whole jungle only found 66 illegal immigrants.

So where are all our legal immigrants? Hmmm ... that's really an interesting question.

I believe they are probably cramped up in some rented HDB flat, maybe 3 to a room.

What about the remaining 20% who are condo class? They also need a place to stay. They are now caught between a rock and a hard place - to rent or to buy.

If they continue to rent, and there are more and more of them, the rental keeps rising. If they buy, now is the subprime ... so they are nervous. So for the moment, the showrooms have quieten down, but the demand has not. It's building up.

What's happening at the HDB balloting exercise is telling us a lot of things about the growing population in Singapore.

The longer the deadlock in the private property market is, the bigger the pent up demand will be. Sooner or later, they will realise that renting is not a long term solution. The moment the subprime is over, I believe this pent up demand will explode and we may even read of people being trampled in a showroom stampede.

[Unregistered]

What not included here are tax-free foreign investors.

Haha ... you are so cute! You actually cut-and-pasted my post in the other thread "Kuwait fund pulls out of bulk purchase of high-end homes" and quoted it here.

I was thinking ... I remembered I posted this in another thread and not this one.

Well you are right. High networth Singaporeans are not the only ones buying multiple properties. In fact, the percentage of private properties bought by Singaporeans have decreased over the years.

The following picture tells a thousand words.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/media/image/launched/2008-03-12/BT_IMAGES_RENTS12.jpg

[Unregistered]

If you look at the recent mad rush for HDB flats, you will know what the real situation is like. These applicants include the majority (I estimate 80%) of the foreign talents who migrated here. They are the HDB class.

What happens to those who are not successful in the balloting for a new HDB flat? They're unlikely to be renting at Ardmore Park or Hilton Hotel.

I also don't see any of them hiding under the canal in Eu Tong Sen Street, while our police after combing the whole jungle only found 66 illegal immigrants.

So where are all our legal immigrants? Hmmm ... that's really an interesting question.

I believe they are probably cramped up in some rented HDB flat, maybe 3 to a room.

What about the remaining 20% who are condo class? They also need a place to stay. They are now caught between a rock and a hard place - to rent or to buy.

If they continue to rent, and there are more and more of them, the rental keeps rising. If they buy, now is the subprime ... so they are nervous. So for the moment, the showrooms have quieten down, but the demand has not. It's building up.

What's happening at the HDB balloting exercise is telling us a lot of things about the growing population in Singapore.

The longer the deadlock in the private property market is, the bigger the pent up demand will be. Sooner or later, they will realise that renting is not a long term solution. The moment the subprime is over, I believe this pent up demand will explode and we may even read of people being trampled in a showroom stampede.


any event will sure be over, why wait now & fight with others when time comes?
how long subprime will be over? soon, 2-4 months time due to US election in Nov. If not resolved by then, Bush & Mccain, sure lose, no need to contest. You know how hard people fight for 'US president' position.
Demand is building up, like a burst of water pipe, when the timing is ready, pressure is building up everyday.
why sell now? hold on, with strong rental yield, rent out for 2 years of 5% return, pay loan rate at 1.68%. With building cost at sky high due to no capacity & tight labour supply, developers & HDB will either slowdown, supply, slowdown building speed OR sell at high price due to cost.
Problem now is who can wait longer? big developers are so cash rich due to last 2 years big profit, no problem for them to hold for 20 years. Of course, nobody will wait that long,only wait for subprime issue to be over.
Bear Stearn collapsed, DOW still up 21pts last night, we can see the market strength, people is starting to see value & come in to buy.
Oil, gold, commodity all drop big time last night, a reversal is coming on the way with people taking profit in commodity after a big run of gold from US$650 to US$1025, oil from 70 to 112, sugar & coffee drop >10% last night. Profit from commodity will put in stock & property again in coming months plus all the US$trillion pump in from center banks across the world, tons of liquidity is going to flood in again.

[Unregistered]

If you look at the recent mad rush for HDB flats, you will know what the real situation is like. These applicants include the majority (I estimate 80%) of the foreign talents who migrated here. They are the HDB class.

What happens to those who are not successful in the balloting for a new HDB flat? They're unlikely to be renting at Ardmore Park or Hilton Hotel.

I also don't see any of them hiding under the canal in Eu Tong Sen Street, while our police after combing the whole jungle only found 66 illegal immigrants.

So where are all our legal immigrants? Hmmm ... that's really an interesting question.

I believe they are probably cramped up in some rented HDB flat, maybe 3 to a room.

What about the remaining 20% who are condo class? They also need a place to stay. They are now caught between a rock and a hard place - to rent or to buy.

If they continue to rent, and there are more and more of them, the rental keeps rising. If they buy, now is the subprime ... so they are nervous. So for the moment, the showrooms have quieten down, but the demand has not. It's building up.

What's happening at the HDB balloting exercise is telling us a lot of things about the growing population in Singapore.

The longer the deadlock in the private property market is, the bigger the pent up demand will be. Sooner or later, they will realise that renting is not a long term solution. The moment the subprime is over, I believe this pent up demand will explode and we may even read of people being trampled in a showroom stampede.

It's already happened in HK. Pressurized by escalating high inflation coupled with sky high rental rates, hv caused ppl to jump in to buy ppty. Over there, ppty prices hv jumped up by more than 25% for the last three months. Analysts said the price level today hv far exceeded its peak in 1997.

Very soon, Singapore will face the same issue. Some might still try to argue that we are different because our govt will manage the situation and curb the prices from escalating. Which I totally disagree. Because if that is the case then we will distort the free market mechanism and badly tanish our reputation as an open economy. I don't think our govt wants to take this path and risk our economy competitiveness ranking to be degraded next year.

[Unregistered]

Problem now is who can wait longer? big developers are so cash rich due to last 2 years big profit, no problem for them to hold for 20 years. Of course, nobody will wait that long,only wait for subprime issue to be over.

Some developers are in fact preparing to hold for 20 years.

CDL/Hong Leong's Kwek Leng Beng recently made some remarks about regretting selling away all his developments and now have to buy them back from the en blockers.

On 8 Mar 2007, CDL/Hong Leong bought back Hong Leong Garden at West Coast for many times the price they sold off to investors/speculators 25 years ago.

Having learnt the lesson, a joint venture between City Developments Ltd and US-based Wachovia Development Corporation is buying two blocks at CDL's Cliveden at Grange condo for $432.4 million or an average price of about $3,750 per sq ft. CDL executive chairman Kwek Leng Beng said that the deal attests to the freehold project's 'high investment potential' and reflects CDL's 'business strategy of leveraging on the capital appreciation potential of our developments'.

Do those words highlighted in red above show a tinge of "sour grapes" at the en bloc profits that investors/speculators made from his father when they bought into Hong Leong Garden 25 years ago?

Developers are wising to the fact that they are giving money away to people who buy into their projects. So nowadays, they keep some units for themselves.

Another tycoon who is keeping his property for posterity is UOL's Wee Cho Yaw. Last year, he redeveloped his flagship buidling at Somerset Road into serviced apartments to be rented out on a weekly to monthly basis, instead of luxury apartments to be sold at sky high prices. In this way, his family will continue to hold on to this piece of property so that 25 years from now, his children/grandchildren may benefit from revised plot ratios around Orchard Road MRT area, which will possibly rise from the current 4.2 to 5.6 range to more than 10+, in line with Shenton Way/Robinson Road areas.

[Unregistered]

It is true that construction costs have gone up, and that new units have to costs $200-300 psf more. So those who have bought their units in 2006 can charge correspondingly more.

But equally, it would be stupid to go into the market now to take over the inflated costs from someone and run the risk of a property price slide. Even if the property prices don't slide, one may not gain much at this stage.

There would be more opportunities in stocks.

This is the right approach. You only need to make a call to your broker and 'its done'.

[Unregistered]

I hv no doubt that our govt is good in managing the economy. But to manage individual panic level? Is that also part of their responsibilities? I doubt that is.
You are on the wrong track. The idea is because the Singapore government is good at managing our economy (unlike that mad HK copycat who keeps posting crap about HK), people here generally do not panic.

[Unregistered]

You are on the wrong track. The idea is because the Singapore government is good at managing our economy (unlike that mad HK copycat who keeps posting crap about HK), people here generally do not panic.
You are right. People here generally do not panic.
That's why we still don't understand why some keep saying there is panic selling.
There isn't any panic selling and the price is still very firm.

[Unregistered]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered
It is true that construction costs have gone up, and that new units have to costs $200-300 psf more. So those who have bought their units in 2006 can charge correspondingly more.

But equally, it would be stupid to go into the market now to take over the inflated costs from someone and run the risk of a property price slide. Even if the property prices don't slide, one may not gain much at this stage.

There would be more opportunities in stocks.


If you think stock has more opportunity to move up now, after stock moves up property will follow closely to up more.
Stock has almost hit bottom, next few weeks, you will see stock flying like eagle. Similarly, next few months, you will see spore property shot up like rocket.
Also, oil & gold going to fall badly, that will help global economy to be stabilised & growth strongly again.
Time has come, you decide, miss the boat again or ride the transformation train.

[Unregistered]

You are right. People here generally do not panic.
That's why we still don't understand why some keep saying there is panic selling.
There isn't any panic selling and the price is still very firm.
Agree - on the other hand there is no panic buying either. Yet that HK copycat keeps inciting fear of a price hike.

[Unregistered]

Agree - on the other hand there is no panic buying either. Yet that HK copycat keeps inciting fear of a price hike.


price do hike in Feb from latest report today,


For units sold in the Rest of Central Region (RCR), the lowest median price increased 14.2 per cent from $765 psf in January to $874 psf in February.

[Unregistered]

price do hike in Feb from latest report today,


For units sold in the Rest of Central Region (RCR), the lowest median price increased 14.2 per cent from $765 psf in January to $874 psf in February.
Wow! Prices still going up!
Yes!

[Unregistered]

"For units sold in the Rest of Central Region (RCR), the lowest median price increased 14.2% from $765psf in January to $874psf in February."



not bad, price still up in Feb.

Wow! Prices still going up!
Yes!

Yes, it is good indeed.

Prices went up by 14.2%.

Keep going. Don't stop.

[Unregistered]

Yes, it is good indeed.

Prices went up by 14.2%.

Keep going. Don't stop.

I think I'm a bit of panic or nervous already. I hv to buy now. The price is continue to go up for sure.

[Unregistered]

You are right. People here generally do not panic.
That's why we still don't understand why some keep saying there is panic selling.
There isn't any panic selling and the price is still very firm.


Agree - on the other hand there is no panic buying either. Yet that HK copycat keeps inciting fear of a price hike.

The Hong Kong copycat is the antidote to the US copycat.

Anyway. A lot of sour grapes here say that the Singapore Government will rein in property prices.

Well, let's look at facts and figures.

Residential Price Index Comparison Between Singapore and Hong Kong between 1979 and 2004.

Year...........Singapore...........Hong Kong

1979................20...................20

1989................50...................50

1996(Peak)........185.................200

1998(Crash).......120.................120

2004(Pre-Boom)..110.................100

Sources:

Singapore 1960 to 2006
www.redas.com/einformation/mt/researchpaper/PPIGovtmeasures.pdf

Hong Kong 1979 to 2004
http://business.fullerton.edu/finance/jrel/papers/pdf/past/2005vol13n3/05.337_356.pdf

If you look at the property price index trends of the two economies, they're very similar and track each other very well.

Hence I think that the Hong Kong copycat is more justified than the US copycat.

The reason is very simple, both are Asian economies.

[Unregistered]

The Hong Kong copycat is the antidote to the US copycat.

Anyway. A lot of sour grapes here say that the Singapore Government will rein in property prices.

Well, let's look at facts and figures.

Residential Price Index Comparison Between Singapore and Hong Kong between 1979 and 2004.

Year...........Singapore...........Hong Kong

1979................20...................20

1989................50...................50

1996(Peak)........185.................200

1998(Crash).......120.................120

2004(Pre-Boom)..110.................100

Sources:

Singapore 1960 to 2006
www.redas.com/einformation/mt/researchpaper/PPIGovtmeasures.pdf

Hong Kong 1979 to 2004
http://business.fullerton.edu/finance/jrel/papers/pdf/past/2005vol13n3/05.337_356.pdf

If you look at the property price index trends of the two economies, they're very similar and track each other very well.

Hence I think that the Hong Kong copycat is more justified than the US copycat.

The reason is very simple, both are Asian economies.
Both are Asian economies and one is trying eat the other's pie.

[Reuters]

http://l.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/nws/p/reuters_logo_94.png
Wall Street Jumps as Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers Beat Forecasts
Caroline Valetkevitch
Reuters
New York, New York, U.S.
10:25am U.S. ET

http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/nm/20080318/2008_03_17t160027_450x303_us_markets_stocks.jpg
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange March 17, 2008. - Photo: Brendan McDermid, Reuters

Stocks jumped on Tuesday as stronger-than-expected earnings from Goldman Sachs Group Inc's and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc provided some reassurance about the ailing financial sector.

All three major indexes were up close to 2%.

Investors also looked forward to what is expected to be a steep interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee around 2:15 pm U.S. Eastern Time on Tuesday.

Goldman and Lehman shares jumped in early trading, leading a rebound in financial stocks, which tumbled on Monday after JPMorgan Chase & Co's deal to buy struggling brokerage Bear Stearns at a rock-bottom price. A broker dealer index surged 5.9%.

"Today's a day for good news, with Goldman and Lehman results beating estimates. Right now the focus is that these earnings weren't as bad as they could have been," said Giri Cherukuri, head trader at OakBrook Investments LLC in Lisle, Illinois.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 231.78 points, or 1.94%, to 12,204.03. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 28.18 points, or 2.21%, to 1,304.78. The Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 44.25 points, or 2.03%, to 2,221.26.

Shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose on expectations their regulator will ease restrictions on the government-chartered companies and help them increase spending in the U.S. housing market. Fannie was up 11.8% at $24.86, while Freddie Mac was up 12.3% at $23.15.

Shares of Goldman were up 8.5% at $163.70 while Lehman was up 17% at $37.12 after reporting results that beat Wall Street estimates.

On the Nasdaq, Yahoo Inc shares rose 4.7% to $27.07 after the Internet search company affirmed its outlook for the first quarter and full year.

Interest rate futures show investors are fully pricing in a one percentage-point cut in U.S. short-term rates, which would take the benchmark fed funds target rate down to 2%.

Over the weekend, the Fed made an emergency quarter-point cut to its discount rate to 3.25% and expanded lending to a wider range of big financial firms, in the first such move since the Great Depression of nearly 80 years ago.

Data before the opening on U.S. housing starts was stronger than expected, adding further support to the market.

[Unregistered]

The Hong Kong copycat is the antidote to the US copycat.

Anyway. A lot of sour grapes here say that the Singapore Government will rein in property prices.

Well, let's look at facts and figures.

Residential Price Index Comparison Between Singapore and Hong Kong between 1979 and 2004.

Year...........Singapore...........Hong Kong

1979................20...................20

1989................50...................50

1996(Peak)........185.................200

1998(Crash).......120.................120

2004(Pre-Boom)..110.................100

Sources:

Singapore 1960 to 2006
www.redas.com/einformation/mt/researchpaper/PPIGovtmeasures.pdf

Hong Kong 1979 to 2004
http://business.fullerton.edu/finance/jrel/papers/pdf/past/2005vol13n3/05.337_356.pdf

If you look at the property price index trends of the two economies, they're very similar and track each other very well.

Hence I think that the Hong Kong copycat is more justified than the US copycat.

The reason is very simple, both are Asian economies.
Any correction for exchange rates? Isn't the HK pegged to the USD which has fallen somewhat over time?

[Unregistered]

Foreign companies are flocking to our little island as they see great potential in the re-making of Singapore. They foresee prices increase in office as well as properties. However, our citizens seems to think otherwise. They even took a step further by hoping for a crash in prices.
What a irony....

[Unregistered]

http://l.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/nws/p/reuters_logo_94.png
Wall Street Jumps as Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers Beat Forecasts
Caroline Valetkevitch
Reuters
New York, New York, U.S.
10:25am U.S. ET

http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/nm/20080318/2008_03_17t160027_450x303_us_markets_stocks.jpg
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange March 17, 2008. - Photo: Brendan McDermid, Reuters

Stocks jumped on Tuesday as stronger-than-expected earnings from Goldman Sachs Group Inc's and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc provided some reassurance about the ailing financial sector.

All three major indexes were up close to 2%.

Investors also looked forward to what is expected to be a steep interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee around 2:15 pm U.S. Eastern Time on Tuesday.

Goldman and Lehman shares jumped in early trading, leading a rebound in financial stocks, which tumbled on Monday after JPMorgan Chase & Co's deal to buy struggling brokerage Bear Stearns at a rock-bottom price. A broker dealer index surged 5.9%.

"Today's a day for good news, with Goldman and Lehman results beating estimates. Right now the focus is that these earnings weren't as bad as they could have been," said Giri Cherukuri, head trader at OakBrook Investments LLC in Lisle, Illinois.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 231.78 points, or 1.94%, to 12,204.03. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 28.18 points, or 2.21%, to 1,304.78. The Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 44.25 points, or 2.03%, to 2,221.26.

Shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose on expectations their regulator will ease restrictions on the government-chartered companies and help them increase spending in the U.S. housing market. Fannie was up 11.8% at $24.86, while Freddie Mac was up 12.3% at $23.15.

Shares of Goldman were up 8.5% at $163.70 while Lehman was up 17% at $37.12 after reporting results that beat Wall Street estimates.

On the Nasdaq, Yahoo Inc shares rose 4.7% to $27.07 after the Internet search company affirmed its outlook for the first quarter and full year.

Interest rate futures show investors are fully pricing in a one percentage-point cut in U.S. short-term rates, which would take the benchmark fed funds target rate down to 2%.

Over the weekend, the Fed made an emergency quarter-point cut to its discount rate to 3.25% and expanded lending to a wider range of big financial firms, in the first such move since the Great Depression of nearly 80 years ago.

Data before the opening on U.S. housing starts was stronger than expected, adding further support to the market.

Not so bad lah!

[Unregistered]

Not so bad lah!

Brother - Next will be different story - DOW 300 points down

[AFP]

http://www.afp.com/english/home/imgs/logo.gif
Wall Street, global stocks surge as Fed delivers rate cut
Agence France-Presse
New York, New York, U.S.
Tuesday, 18 March 2008, 5:02 PM U.S. ET

http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/afp/20080318/capt.cps.mqy67.180308225743.photo00.photo.default-512x341.jpg
Traders work the floor of the New York Stock Exchange after the Fed board rate was announced, in New York City. Wall Street joined a potent global stock rally Tuesday as the U.S. Federal Reserve delivered a hefty rate cut aimed at easing credit turmoil and reviving growth in the world's biggest economy. - Photo: Getty Images, AFP

Wall Street joined a potent global stock rally Tuesday as the US Federal Reserve delivered a hefty rate cut aimed at easing credit turmoil and reviving growth in the world's biggest economy.

Stronger-than-expected results from investment banks Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers, which managed to weather the market turbulence, also contributed to an ebullient mood among traders.

US stocks vaulted higher in the wake of the Fed's action to cut key rates by 75 basis points as the Dow Jones Industrial Average rocketed 3.51% to 12,391.66.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite meanwhile jumped 4.19% to 2,268.26 and the broad-market Standard & Poor's 500 index soared 4.24% to 1,330.74.

The aggressive move by the Fed, which lowered its federal funds rate to 2.25%, fueled hopes that the central bank is finally getting its arms around what has seemed an intractable credit crunch that has been threatening the global economy.

Brian Bethune, economist at Global Insight, said the Fed's multi-front battle has not only cut rates but helped provided liquidity to financial firms being squeezed.

"The Fed is not only providing low-cost oxygen to the markets at a critical point in the business and credit cycle, it has also increased the flow of this oxygen quite significantly," Bethune said.

In Europe, shares rallied in anticipation of the Fed action.

The London FTSE 100 index soared 3.54% to 5,605.80. In Paris, the CAC 40 shot up 3.42% to close at 4,582.59 while in Frankfurt the Dax rose 3.41% to finish at 6,393.39.

Expectations of the cut galvanized investor spirits that had been dashed on Monday on news of the collapse and sale of US investment bank Bear Stearns.

The fate of Bear Stearns sparked fears that more big banks could succumb to a global credit crunch brought on by the sharp downturn in the US housing market.

Earnings reports from two other big Wall Street firms eased concerns however that they could become victims of the crisis. Even though earnings were hit by the subprime real estate crisis, the two still beat expectations with solid profits.

Goldman Sachs's fiscal first-quarter earnings fell 53% to 1.51 billion dollars while Lehman Brothers's fiscal first-quarter profits slumped 57% to 489 million dollars.

Analysts said it was too soon to celebrate an end to the crunch but that the Fed actions are at least helping to minimize the damage and avert a calamity.

"The Fed is rapidly using up all its bullets but there is no other choice." said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors.

"It will probably have to use more up before the coast is clear. Ultimately, I believe the Fed will succeed in keeping us out of a steep and protracted recession and I still feel that the economy will be up and running by the end of the year."

Gregory Drahuschak at Janney Montgomery Scott said there was reason for cautious optimism.

Drahuschak said it its "too simplistic" to believe the Fed will cure all market ills but that the Fed is a powerful force.

"The old cliche that says 'don't fight the Fed' has been sage advice for decades," he said. "Unless something else comes along of the magnitude of the housing or related credit market issues, the Fed's action should be a significant factor getting the market and the economy back on track."

In other markets, the Brazilian Bovespa jumped 3.2%, Canada's S&P/TSX added 1.42% and the Mexican Bolsa increased 1.6%.

In Asia, markets also rallied after Monday's bloodletting.

Tokyo gained 1.5% as bargain hunters emerged a day after the index plunged by 3.7%. Hong Kong added 1.42%, Seoul rebounded 0.9% and Mumbai ended a marginal 0.16% higher.

[Unregistered]

Fed running out of ammunition. Inflation risks high. In a week the situation would be back to square one. No escaping the great recession which is already underway. Hope it doesn't turn into the second 'Great Depression' and pull everyone down with it. Fact that they cut 75 basis points show teh situation. Panic Panic Panic.

[Unregistered]

Fed running out of ammunition. Inflation risks high. In a week the situation would be back to square one. No escaping the great recession which is already underway. Hope it doesn't turn into the second 'Great Depression' and pull everyone down with it. Fact that they cut 75 basis points show teh situation. Panic Panic Panic.

Be careful what you wish for.....

[Unregistered]

Fed running out of ammunition. Inflation risks high. In a week the situation would be back to square one. No escaping the great recession which is already underway. Hope it doesn't turn into the second 'Great Depression' and pull everyone down with it. Fact that they cut 75 basis points show teh situation. Panic Panic Panic.

agree lah - in stock market they say sell in may go away
may be thats now true for march08

[Unregistered]

Be careful what you wish for.....
Doesnt matter what we wish for..what will be will be.

[Unregistered]

agree lah - in stock market they say sell in may go away
may be thats now true for march08


stock market is like that, when everyone lose confidence, sell away everything, walk out, then the market will come.
Apr is good time, May is best.
say what you want to say, let time tell.

[Unregistered]

stock market is like that, when everyone lose confidence, sell away everything, walk out, then the market will come.
Apr is good time, May is best.
say what you want to say, let time tell.
You keep saying things and saying things, and then you say "time will tell".

Why don't you say nothing and let time tell?

[Unregistered]

You keep saying things and saying things, and then you say "time will tell".

Why don't you say nothing and let time tell?


medicine time.

[AP]

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Morgan Stanley 1Q profit tops estimates
Joe Bel Bruno
Business Writer
Associated Press
Wednesday, 19 March 2008, 4:43 PM U.S. ET

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The Morgan Stanley headquarters is seen in New York 30 January 2008. - Photo: Shannon Stapleton, Reuters

Morgan Stanley posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings on Wednesday, joining those from two of its rivals and indicating that Wall Street may be getting a better grip on the credit crisis.

The nation's second-largest investment bank was able to parlay aggressive stock and bond trading into offsetting more losses linked to subprime mortgages. Morgan Stanley — like Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs on Tuesday — was also able to top Wall Street's reduced expectations by a wide margin.

Morgan Stanley's results came during a tumultuous week. Just a few days earlier, rival Bear Stearns Cos. sold itself at a fire-sale $2 per share price to JPMorgan Chase & Co. in order to avoid declaring bankruptcy. That sent a shockwave through Wall Street as investors wondered if other investment banks might be in the same predicament.

But the strong results from Morgan Stanley, Goldman and Lehman helped assuage fears of a wider meltdown in the financial system — at least for now.

"Fact is, like it or not, this is an inherently risky business where the returns will shift to those willing to take the most leverage," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of Harris Private Bank. "Expectations had us in a tailspin."

The earnings results not only helped shares of the investment banks recover from the lows they hit Monday in the aftermath of Bear's sale, but also backed claims by the companies' chief executives that they could take advantage of the market's dislocation.

John Mack, Morgan Stanley's CEO, said the investment house known for its trading prowess "effectively capitalized on market opportunities and aggressively managed our positions." The company had about $2.3 billion worth of write-downs linked to the credit and housing market crisis, but one of its best trading performances in history.

Morgan Stanley wrote down about $9.4 billion during last year's second half. Global banks and brokerages have so far claimed about $200 billion worth of write-downs since last year.

"While many of our businesses are facing challenging market conditions that we expect to continue in the months ahead, we are satisfied with how Morgan Stanley navigated the ongoing market turbulence," Mack said in a statement.

The company said it earned $1.53 billion after preferred dividends, or $1.45 per share, down 42% from $2.66 billion, or $2.17 per share, a year earlier. Revenue fell 17% to $8.3 billion from $10 billion a year earlier.

But the lower results easily topped analysts' expectations for a profit of $1.03 per share on $7.19 billion of revenue, according to Thomson Financial.

Its shares closed up 59 cents at $43.45, following a 17% gain in Tuesday's market rally.

Morgan Stanley's institutional securities business — which includes investment banking and trading — posted $6.2 billion of revenue. The results marked the division's third-best quarter ever.

Meanwhile, volatility in the bond market pushed fixed-income sales and trading revenue to their second-best showing with $2.9 billion of revenue.

Though offset by mortgage write-downs, Morgan Stanley relied on robust commodities and currency markets to drive results.

"We believe (Goldman and Morgan Stanley) have shown their ability to trade challenging markets this quarter," said Roger Freeman, an analyst with Lehman Brothers. "There is hope that the Federal Reserve's aggressiveness will begin to unclog the fixed-income markets. ... This could push the group still higher over the next few sessions."

Goldman Sachs, Lehman and Morgan Stanley said they began to test a new program this week that allows them to borrow directly from the central bank to help improve the financial market's liquidity. On Sunday the Fed gave investment banks permission to borrow from its discount window, which had previously been restricted to commercial banks.

The Fed also cut the rate at which financial institutions borrow at its "discount window" to 2.5 percent from 3.5 percent in two separate actions this week.

Though all seemed to be positive steps for Wall Street, that doesn't mean the concerns about the rest of the year have been alleviated.

The fiscal first-quarter for the three banks ended Feb. 29, before most of the market turbulence that rocked Bear Stearns last week. Investors are also still waiting for Merrill Lynch & Co. to finish its first quarter at the end of the month.

And then there's the biggest worry on investors' minds.

"We remain concerned with the deteriorating economy and its impact on the results at these firms, despite (the Fed's) aid with near-term funding," said Standard & Poor's equity analyst Matthew Albrecht.

[The Straits Times]

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West Coast condo plot draws whopping 12 bids
Joyce Teo
The Straits Times
Thursday, 20 March 2008

Competitionwas brisk for a 99-year leasehold condominium site in West Coast Crescent, with 12 firms defying signs of a property slowdown to lodge bids.

The bidders included major and mid-sized developers and contractors, with a Hong Kong-linked firm emerging with the highest tender - but only just. Billion Rise, which is linked to the Cheung Kong group, bid $110.44 million for the site - $305 psf of gross floor area - to pip its nearest rival by 1 per cent.

Tian Hock Properties, which has Far East Organization chief executive Philip Ng as a shareholder, tendered $108.9 million or $301 psf. MCL Land was next with $103.5 million or $286 psf.

The response was strong, in contrast to the weak property market sentiment. One sign of that came on Tuesday when the Government decided not to award a leasehold landed plot in Westwood Avenue in Jurong West as the bids were too low.

Consultants pointed to differences between the two sites. They said the West Coast Crescent site's prime location had sparked the keen interest.

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Graphics: Tang Wee Cheow, ST.
Source: LTA

It suits a mass market condo project, which would be able to better weather any sector weakness, said Knight Frank director Nicholas Mak.

The Jurong West landed plot was in a less favourable spot and would have accommodated 99-year leasehold landed homes, which typically do not sell as well, he added.

The West Coast Crescent site can be built up to about 36 storeys. Some high-floor units would enjoy good views of the ocean and West Coast Park as surrounding buildings are mostly low- to medium-rise, he said.

This tender also reflects the current market situation as some bids came in relatively low. Industry sources say a few developers were trying their luck with opportunistic bids.

The lowest bid of $50 million, from Teambuild Construction's Scantech Development, works out to just $138 psf.

Other bidders included Sim Lian Land ($236 psf), Hoi Hup Realty ($235 psf), Frasers Centrepoint ($210 psf) and Allgreen Properties ($186 psf). City Developments' Sunny Vista Developments and TID also put in a bid of $180 psf.

Consultants said the top bid of $305 psf will translate into an estimated break-even price of $680 psf to $720 psf for new condos. Units could be sold at between $750 and $800 psf.

Units at nearby Blue Horizon were sold at about $750 psf in the resale market in January and February, while sub-sales of units in Varsity Park and Clementi Woods were done at $680 psf to $750 psf, according to CBRE Research.

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[Reuters]

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Bottoming process begins with Bear Sterns, not bear market
Jennifer Ablan
Reuters
New York, New York, U.S.
Wednesday, 19 March 2008, 9:20 pm U.S. EDT

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The Bear Stearns building in New York

Less than a week ago, it seemed like the sky was falling on Wall Street when the spectacular unravelling of investment bank Bear Stearns sent financial markets, in the United States and elsewhere, into panic mode.

Then the Federal Reserve swooped in. Its liquidity action and its brokering of a deal for JPMorgan Chase & Co. to take over Bear Stearns made investors less fearful about the probable crippling of the American banking system that could have occurred.

Bear Stearns' fall to the brink of bankruptcy and the aggressive moves by US policy makers have led many investors to believe that these events mark the beginning of a bottoming process.

For everyone who still thinks that stocks won't hit a bottom until the Standard & Poor's 500 falls into the bear market's grasp, never mind.

'We are in a bottoming process, but it will really be a 'process' because healing of this credit crisis does take time,' said Dan Fuss, vice chairman of Loomis Sayles, an investment company that oversees more than US$100 billion (S$139 billion) in fixed-income securities.

What gives Mr Fuss and other major investors reason to believe that a bottom is in the making is that in nearly every previous one, there typically has been a huge failure of an institution that has led to extreme policy responses.

Think Enron and WorldCom, Long-Term Capital Management and Orange County.

'It usually took a big entity to fall over for aggressive, creative regulatory policy to develop,' said Bob Doll, vice chairman and global chief investment officer of equities at BlackRock, which manages more than US$1.1 trillion in assets.

'That's what we saw with Bear Stearns collapsing and the Fed's extraordinary response to it. And that's why confidence is improving,' he added.

An avalanche of fear
Bear Stearns, which had been heavily exposed to the faltering mortgage market, faced a classic 'run on the bank' as the firm burned through cash and lost access to funding when clients furiously yanked assets and unwound trades.

To make matters worse, fears abounded that Lehman Brothers, the fourth-largest US investment bank, could suffer a similar fate as Bear, the fifth-largest.

'The Fed was trying to blunt what could have been a snowballing effect of a lack of faith in the financial system,' said Keith Wirtz, president and chief investment officer at Fifth Third Asset Management, which manages US$22.5 billion.

'The Fed saw that they had to do something absolute to stifle what could have been a developing crisis of a full-fledged lack of faith in the investment banking sector, which could have eventually crept into the commercial money banks as well,' Mr Wirtz said.

Before Monday, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, and even venerable Goldman Sachs watched their stocks get 'killed' last week, he added.

In fact, from the end of June 2007, which was the start of the credit turmoil, to March 14, 2008, before the Fed stepped in, Goldman's stock was down 28%, Lehman lost 48%, and Merrill also dropped 48 per cent.

Moreover, the Amex Securities Broker-Dealer Index was down 48%.

Pushing open the discount window
On Tuesday, the Fed cut interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, the sixth time it has slashed its fed funds rate target for overnight bank loans, to 2.25%.

It wasn't, however, what prevented a near meltdown in stock markets.

The Fed dusted off a Depression-era rule to let securities firms borrow directly from the Fed through its 'discount window' - and that helped restore investors' confidence. That decision was announced along with the Fed's promise to underwrite JPMorgan's takeover of Bear for the 'fire sale' price of US$2 a share. It helped turn the mood around on Wall Street.

From now on, any bank in a liquidity jam will be able to go directly to the Fed's discount window and trade in its hard-to-sell assets, such as mortgage bonds, as collateral for highly liquid government bonds or cash, which it can in turn use to fund its short-term liabilities and keep trading.

'The big news this week was not the Fed's 75 basis points on Tuesday,' Mr Doll said. 'It was what they did with opening the discount window .... that's a huge change.' This week, the Fed cut the discount rate twice - in an emergency move on Sunday night, when it unveiled JPMorgan's deal to buy Bear Stearns at the almost unthinkable price of US$2 a share and again on Tuesday at its regular meeting.

On Wednesday, the federal government came up with another tonic for troubled times. The regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two biggest US home financing arrangement, relaxed their capital rules and gave them permission to pump US$200 billion more into the struggling US mortgage market.

Goldman shares are trading at US$166.49 per share, up from Friday's close of US$156.86, while Lehman is trading at US$42.23 per share, up from its Friday close of US$39.26.

As for Merrill, its shares closed at US$41.45, down from US$43.51 on Friday.

Letting some air out of oil and gold
Investors also believe the bottom has arrived for technical reasons. The Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500's have seen valuations that are much more subdued than when the markets had capitulated in the past.

'Everyone has been looking for the capitulation in the stock market, but they are looking at the wrong place,' Mr Wirtz said.

'Last week was very much a capitulation moment' in the financial sector, the root of the liquidity crisis, he added.

That's not all, folks.

Soon after the last bubble burst in technology and telecommunications stocks in March 2000, investors diversified away from US equities.

'They've been buying foreign stocks and hard assets like commodities and real estate,' Mr Wirtz added.

Now everything from oil to gold to wheat are suffering from what looks like the beginning of a huge downdraft in those leveraged assets. US crude for April delivery dropped nearly US$5 to US$104.48 a barrel, while gold tumbled 6% to a three-week low, under the US$1000 mark to US$940.40 an ounce.

'That's where all the leverage is coming out now, commodities,' Mr Fuss said. 'I think stocks and bonds have gone through their worst beating.' 'Down the road, last week will be looked at as an important moment in time for equity investors,' added Mr Wirtz of Fifth Third, who said the bottom is here.

[Unregistered]

Fed Juggles Inflation, Sour Economy
Thursday March 20, 3:44 am ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Divisions in Federal Reserve Make Chairman Ben Bernanke's Juggling Act Harder

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Ben Bernanke's juggling act has gotten harder. The Federal Reserve chairman has been taking extraordinary steps to prevent credit, financial and housing problems from driving the country into a deep recession. At the same time, he faces the danger that the very tonic to brace the sickly economy could bring about another dangerous ailment-- inflation.

And, rare divisions have surfaced among Bernanke and his central bank colleagues about just how aggressive the Fed should be in lowering interest rates to treat the wobbly economy.

Two of the Fed's members -- Charles Plosser, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, and Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas -- on Tuesday opposed cutting a key interest rate by a hefty three-quarters point. Instead, they favored a smaller reduction. It was a crack in the mostly unified front the Fed often shows the public. The last time there was a double dissent was in fall 2002 under chairman Alan Greenspan.

The reasons for the Plosser's and Fisher's dissenting votes weren't laid out in the statement explaining the Fed's action, although both men have a reputation for being especially vigilant about fighting inflation.

"Containing inflation is the purpose of the ship I crew for, and if a temporary economic slowdown is what we must endure while we achieve that purpose, then it is, in my opinion, a burden we must bear, however politically inconvenient," Fisher said in a speech earlier this month.

In fact, the Fed as a whole expressed concern on Tuesday about higher inflation -- something it didn't mention in the statement issued after its previous meeting, which concluded on Jan. 30.

"Inflation has been elevated, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen," the Fed said Tuesday. Although policymakers were hopeful that prices would moderate in the coming quarters, they acknowledged that "uncertainty about the inflation outlook has increased."

Rising inflation, fueled in large measure by skyrocketing energy prices, complicates Bernanke's job of trying to get the economy back on firm footing.

The Fed started cutting rates last September and turned much more forceful this year. Those lower rates can aggravate inflation at a time when people and businesses already are smarting from high energy and food prices. The Fed's rate cuts also have weakened the dollar. That has raised the cost of imported goods coming into the U.S. and could lead American companies to raise their prices as foreign-made goods become more expensive.

If treating inflation were the priority, the Fed would take the opposite action and raise rates.

Fears have grown that the country could be headed for "stagflation," a toxic mix of stagnant economic activity and rising inflation not seen in three decades. "I don't anticipate stagflation," Bernanke told Congress last month. "I don't think we're anywhere near the situation that prevailed in the 1970s."

Oil prices, which have galloped to record highs in recent weeks, have eased but still top $104 a barrel. Gasoline prices have marched upward and are expected to hit $4 a gallon nationwide this spring.

"I think the threat of inflation is as high as it's been since the 1970s. Bernanke and the rest of them have a challenging task to navigate the economy away from recession and at the same time avoid inflation taking root," said Sean Snaith, economics professor at the University of Central Florida. "If Bernanke can do this, he'll look like a hero."

Snaith and other economists said that Tuesday's double dissents and the Fed's talk about inflation concerns could make it more difficult for Bernanke to build consensus around the Fed's next move on interest rates. "One more dissent would be an open revolt," said Ken Mayland, economist at ClearView Economics.

The Fed's next scheduled meeting on interest rates is April 29-30. Some believe the Fed might be more inclined to order a smaller rate cut at that time, depending on economic and financial conditions.

"Bernanke will have a tougher juggling act to do in the future," Mayland said. "It is a fine line that they are walking here between two troubles."

In slashing interest rates, the Fed has been squarely focused on rescuing the economy. At the same time, Bernanke has repeatedly said the Fed must be on guard for any inflation danger signs.

Why? Because once inflation gets a grip on the economy, it can be hard to break. A rapid rise in price erodes the purchasing power of people. It squeezes companies' profits, too, and can make them more reluctant to hire and expand. It eats into returns on investments. As people and companies hunker down, that further restrains overall economic growth.

Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker ratcheted rates up to the highest levels since the Civil War to break inflation's hold. That jolt, however, plunged the country into the painful 1981-82 recession.

"There is increasing concern among some on the (Fed) that freewheeling rate cuts are creating a significant problem with the Fed's goal of anchoring inflation expectations," said Scott Anderson, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics. If people, companies and investors believe inflation will pick up, he said, they will act in ways that can make inflation worse.

"It is important that inflation expectations remain stable. If those expectations become unhinged, they could rapidly fuel inflation," Plosser said in February. "Moreover, as we learned from the experience of the 1970s, once the public loses confidence in the Fed's commitment to price stability, it is very costly to the economy for the Fed to regain that confidence."

[Business Week]

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U.S. Sneezes, China's Just Fine
Economists say a global slowdown will largely spare a mainland economy still based on domestic consumption and cushioned by vast cash reserves
Frederik Balfour
Asia Correspondent
Business Week
Hong Kong SAR
Tuesday, 18 March 2008, 7:28 PM

The Year of the Rat has certainly gotten off to a less than auspicious start for China. The country got buffeted by the worst winter storms in half a decade, causing food prices to soar and pushing inflation to an alarming 8.7% in February. The Shanghai Composite Index is off 30% since the beginning of 2008, and property prices have started falling in several major cities. China's heavy economic involvement with the internationally unpopular regime in Sudan, and most recently the bloodshed in Tibet threaten to spoil the country's Olympic parade.

Now comes the U.S. bear market and housing collapse. If you heap this looming U.S. recession onto the litany of China's other woes does it spell a recipe for a total China meltdown? Don't bet on it. In fact, analysts say that the question of decoupling—the notion that China is contagion free from a global slowdown—is actually a misnomer, since "historically, the Chinese economy has never been coupled," says Jonathan Anderson, Asian chief economist at UBS.

So questions of semantics aside, what's really going on? The answer is that while China is widely viewed as an export powerhouse, selling everything from garden gnomes to laptop computers overseas, most of its economic growth is still fueled by domestic investment and consumption, neither of which has shown much sign of slowdown so far. Anderson reckons that China's gross domestic product growth will slow to 10% this year, down from 11.4% in 2007, hardly the kind of slump to cause serious concern for Beijing.

A More Open Economy
Still, the Chinese economy is far more open than it was during the last U.S. recession of 2001. Back then, exports accounted for just 8.4% of gross domestic product and today it's about 40%. The European Union is China's biggest export market, with 20%, just ahead of the U.S. with 19%, while Japan and the rest of Asia take 25%, says Michael Spencer, Asia chief economist at Deutsche Bank. He's estimating growth will slow to 9.5% this year, but only half of that decline will be due to a slower increase in the growth of China's trade surplus.

The reason the linkages from the trade sector to the rest of the economy aren't greater stems from the fact that domestic content only accounts for 25% of exports. Another is that although the export sector accounts for 80 million jobs, the sector most likely to get badly hurt is light manufacturing, which accounts for about 6.5% of total employment in China, while the export sector as a whole accounts for just 5% of total investment, says Anderson.

Bear in mind too that China continues to amass huge amounts of foreign exchange. In January alone reserves jumped $61.6 billion, bringing the country's cash hoard to $1.589 trillion. That's quite a pile available to the government should the need arise to prime the pump of an ailing economy. But that is highly unlikely, says JPMorgan China economist Frank Gong. "Investment growth, loan growth, consumption growth, and China growth are strong," he says.

The Chinese proclivity to sock away huge amounts of savings provides a further cushion to a downturn. That means the disturbingly high degree of leverage that got U.S. hedge funds and households into the subprime mess is a problem quite unknown in China where the minimum mortgage down payment is 30%. "Residential mortgages are probably the best asset in the banking sector," says Ryan Tsang, senior director of banking research at Standard & Poors.

[Fortune]

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Fannie and Freddie bounce back
Investors pile into the stocks after the government frees the companies to load up on cheap triple-A mortgage bonds.
Colin Barr
Senior writer
Fortune
New York, New York, U.S.
Thursday, 20 March 2008: 12:55 AM Singapore Time

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Shares in both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are subject to wide market swings.

The government's efforts to thaw fearful credit markets are lighting a fire under Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Shares in the government-sponsored mortgage companies rose sharply for the second straight day Wednesday. Investors rushed to buy the stock after the firms' regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, eased some capital constraints on Fannie and Freddie in hopes of getting the market for mortgage-backed securities back on its feet. Wednesday's rally - which adds to a sharp run-up tied to Tuesday's Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts - puts the shares up more than 60% from their lows of last week.

After long keeping a tight rein on Fannie and Freddie following accounting scandals earlier this decade, Ofheo has now effectively allowed the firms to plow $200 billion into mortgage securities. Investors fled that market last month amid worries about the toll that falling U.S. house prices and rising mortgage defaults might exact on Fannie and Freddie. Widespread selling of triple-A-rated mortgage bonds, including those backed by Fannie and Freddie, helped lead to the collapse of Carlyle Capital, a heavily leveraged Amsterdam-listed fund that held some $21 billion of the bonds, and the near implosion of jumbo mortgage lender Thornburg Mortgage (TMA).

"This is an effort to prevent further Thornburgs and Carlyles," says Gary Gordon, an analyst at Portales Partners in New York.

The Ofheo decision isn't just good for the bond market. It's good for shareholders in Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE, Fortune 500) because it gives the companies the power to scoop up highly rated mortgage-backed securities that have been trading at a discount. Gordon, who has a buy rating on Fannie and Freddie, says Wednesday's rally shows that investors are starting to appreciate the companies' growth prospects - which are bolstered by improving pricing in both its credit guarantee and mortgage investment businesses - after months of focusing solely on their credit risks.

"There are two issues with Fannie and Freddie," he says: the risk of credit losses, and the reward of strong revenue growth. "The market seems to focus on one or the other, which is why you get these big swings."

The swings in these stocks have been very large indeed. Fannie and Freddie traded in the high $60s last summer, before the full extent of the mortgage meltdown became apparent. Since then they have traded as low as the high teens amid concerns about their exposure to losses tied to the deteriorating U.S. housing market.

Those worries spiked over the past month after both firms reported multibillion-dollar losses for the fourth quarter, and President Bush signed into law a measure giving Fannie and Freddie ability to buy much bigger loans. That move aimed to support slipping house prices in high-cost areas where many mortgages were above Fannie and Freddie limits - but it caused investors to flee the stocks amid worries that bigger loans would mean hefty losses.

But Wednesday's statement from James Lockhart, Ofheo's director, is clearly intended to soothe those fears. Lockhart said Wednesday's decision will allow the companies to bolster the mortgage markets without causing undue strain on their balance sheets.

"Let me be clear - both companies have prudent cushions above the OFHEO-directed capital requirements and have increased their reserves," Lockhart said in a statement. "We believe they can play an even more positive role in providing the stability and liquidity the markets need right now."

Indeed, additional bond purchases by Fannie and Freddie should support prices in the mortgage bond market - which is good for institutions that hold Fannie and Freddie-backed bonds. Higher prices could also help Fannie and Freddie, which must mark-to-market the value of their mortgage portfolios each quarter. Gordon says a sustained rise in mortgage bond prices could allow Fannie and Freddie to reverse some of the hefty writedowns that contributed to their steep fourth-quarter losses.

Gordon also takes heart in Ofheo's stance on the companies' capital needs. "As a key part of this initiative," the Ofheo statement says, "both companies announced that they will begin the process to raise significant capital." Saying you'll begin the process of raising capital is very different from saying you're going to raise capital now, Gordon points out. He believes that if the markets for mortgage securities return to health, Fannie and Freddie may find their balance sheets bolstered by reversals of earlier mark-to-market writedowns.

If that happens, he says, "They just won't need to raise new capital."

[AP]

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Wall Street rises after Philadelphia Federal Reserve reading
Caroline Valetkevitch
Business Writer
Associated Press
New York, New York, U.S.
Thursday, 20 March 2008, 10:40am U.S. ET

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Traders crowd the post that will trade Visa Inc. as they wait for the company's IPO to start trading, Wednesday, 19 March 2008. Visa Inc. shares soared more than 30% in their stock market debut Wednesday as investors latched on to the largest IPO in U.S. history. - AP Photo: Richard Drew

Stocks rebounded Thursday after the previous session's big drop, with investors eager to take advantage of bargains and cheered by a milder-than-expected drop in manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region. The Dow Jones industrial average rose more than 100 points.

Earlier Thursday, stocks wobbled due to economic worries after the Labor Department said the number of newly laid off workers filing for unemployment benefits rose last week by a more-than-anticipated 22,000 to 378,000. That level is the highest in nearly two months.

But Wall Street found reason to buy back into stocks when the Philadelphia Federal Reserve said manufacturing activity is dropping in March by less than it did in February, and by less than many economists anticipated.

Investors appeared relieved about the Philadelphia Fed's report, but economic jitters are far from alleviated — in addition to the disappointing jobless claims report, the Conference Board said Thursday its index of leading economic indicators fell, as expected, for the fifth straight month in February.

The markets are apt to stay volatile for some time, as investors digest news on the economy and the troubled financial sector.

"It's the every-other-day theory — up one day, and down the next," said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates.

In midmorning trading, the Dow rose 108.52, or 0.90%, to 12,208.18.

Broader stock indicators also advanced. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 12.39, or 0.95%, at 1,310.81, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 21.49, or 0.97%, at 2,231.45.

On Wednesday, stocks plummeted, giving back much of Tuesday's big advance as investors grew worried — once again — about the possibility of further troubles at banks with mortgage-related debt on their books. After surging 420 points on Tuesday, the Dow dropped nearly 300.

Bond prices slipped. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.37% from 3.34 percent late Wednesday. Bond trading will be finishing early Thursday ahead of Good Friday, when all the U.S. financial markets will be closed.

In earnings news, Nike Inc. reported late Wednesday a 30% gain in quarterly profit, signaling to Wall Street that some companies are faring well despite the credit crisis. Nike said sales overseas increased largely because of the weak dollar.

A plunge in commodities prices also gave investors some hope that lower energy and food prices might boost consumers' discretionary spending. Crude oil fell back below $100 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and gold prices sank.

Some energy and metals companies fell on the pullbacks, however. ConocoPhillips fell $1.21 to $72.38; Barrick Gold Corp. fell $2.30, or 5%, to $42.93; and Newmont Mining Corp. fell $1.86, or 3.8%, to $46.86.

In other corporate news, Borders Group Inc., which has been reporting disappointing earnings in recent quarters, revealed early Thursday it may put itself up for sale. The nation's second-largest bookseller said it has lined up $42.5 million in financing so it can continue operating.

Borders fell $1.47, or 21 percent, to $5.63.

The dollar rose against other major currencies, while gold prices sank.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 9.92, or 1.49%, to 674.05.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 3 to 2 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to a heavy 939.9 million shares.

Stock markets overseas were mostly lower. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 3.5%, but the Shanghai Composite Index closed 1.1%higher after an early plunge. In afternoon trading, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 1.15%, Germany's DAX index lost 1.08 percent, and France's CAC-40 1.29%.

Japan's markets were closed for a national holiday.

[Happy Feet]

Swee liao lor!

[Unregistered]

Swee liao lor!
Bloody hell, your assets appreciating right?

[Unregistered]

Foreign companies are flocking to our little island as they see great potential in the re-making of Singapore. They foresee prices increase in office as well as properties. However, our citizens seems to think otherwise. They even took a step further by hoping for a crash in prices.
What a irony....
It has always been like that. That is human nature.

[Unregistered]

Foreign companies are flocking to our little island as they see great potential in the re-making of Singapore. They foresee prices increase in office as well as properties. However, our citizens seems to think otherwise. They even took a step further by hoping for a crash in prices.
What a irony....


It has always been like that. That is human nature.

That's not true.

I'm a citizen of Singapore and I don't hope for a crash in prices.

Only the sour grapes are looking forward to a crash.

[Unregistered]

That's not true.

I'm a citizen of Singapore and I don't hope for a crash in prices.

Only the sour grapes are looking forward to a crash.


Govt should do the right thing for the country.
If they do otherwise because of vote, then sporean talents will migrate to support competitors market.
why can't the whole country work together to make a better country?
jealous & envy of sour grape want to stop progress of country.

[Unregistered]

3,000 apply for Boon Keng's condo-like flats, but only 460 sold

By Fiona Chan, Property Reporter


THOUSANDS of applications poured in for a condo-like Housing Board project in January - but as of last week, less than two-thirds of the flats had been taken up.

About 250 of the 714 units in City View @ Boon Keng remain unsold, said HSR Property Group, which is marketing the project.

These flats will be offered to the public, probably via a walk-in selection.

The leftover homes came as a surprise to market watchers, given that 3,500 applicants had vied for them.

This works out to five would-be buyers for each flat at City View, the second public housing project to be built by a private developer.

It boasts condo-like features such as timber floors, built-in wardrobes and air-conditioning.

All the applicants were given a chance to book the flats they wanted, said HSR project director Kellie Liew.

The selection process stretched over 20 days and ended last Thursday, with more than 3,000 potential deals falling through.

Developer Hoi Hup Sunway sold about 460 units, including six of the top-priced five-room units at $727,000 each, said Ms Liew.

But she added that some buyers backed out of their purchases due to the weakening property market, while others did not meet the required criteria to buy the flats.

[Unregistered]

3,000 apply for Boon Keng's condo-like flats, but only 460 sold

By Fiona Chan, Property Reporter


THOUSANDS of applications poured in for a condo-like Housing Board project in January - but as of last week, less than two-thirds of the flats had been taken up.

About 250 of the 714 units in City View @ Boon Keng remain unsold, said HSR Property Group, which is marketing the project.

These flats will be offered to the public, probably via a walk-in selection.

The leftover homes came as a surprise to market watchers, given that 3,500 applicants had vied for them.

This works out to five would-be buyers for each flat at City View, the second public housing project to be built by a private developer.

It boasts condo-like features such as timber floors, built-in wardrobes and air-conditioning.

All the applicants were given a chance to book the flats they wanted, said HSR project director Kellie Liew.

The selection process stretched over 20 days and ended last Thursday, with more than 3,000 potential deals falling through.

Developer Hoi Hup Sunway sold about 460 units, including six of the top-priced five-room units at $727,000 each, said Ms Liew.

But she added that some buyers backed out of their purchases due to the weakening property market, while others did not meet the required criteria to buy the flats.
Oh no takers coming..........tells you the state. Maybe speculators panicking.

[Unregistered]

Oh no takers coming..........tells you the state. Maybe speculators panicking.
Oh no takers coming..........tells you the state. Maybe buyers decide to buy a condo instead. Cos' they don't want to be staying in the same type of housing like you, the sour grape?

[Unregistered]

3,000 apply for Boon Keng's condo-like flats, but only 460 sold

By Fiona Chan, Property Reporter


THOUSANDS of applications poured in for a condo-like Housing Board project in January - but as of last week, less than two-thirds of the flats had been taken up.

About 250 of the 714 units in City View @ Boon Keng remain unsold, said HSR Property Group, which is marketing the project.

These flats will be offered to the public, probably via a walk-in selection.

The leftover homes came as a surprise to market watchers, given that 3,500 applicants had vied for them.

This works out to five would-be buyers for each flat at City View, the second public housing project to be built by a private developer.

It boasts condo-like features such as timber floors, built-in wardrobes and air-conditioning.

All the applicants were given a chance to book the flats they wanted, said HSR project director Kellie Liew.

The selection process stretched over 20 days and ended last Thursday, with more than 3,000 potential deals falling through.

Developer Hoi Hup Sunway sold about 460 units, including six of the top-priced five-room units at $727,000 each, said Ms Liew.

But she added that some buyers backed out of their purchases due to the weakening property market, while others did not meet the required criteria to buy the flats.


some did not meet the required criteria, how many?
Wait for STI to hit 3300 in 1-2 months time, people will start to camp outside HDB to grab those leftover units, real opportunists.

[Unregistered]

Another quarter of price increase. Yes!

[Unregistered]

Another quarter of price increase. Yes!
Every quarter also increase what.

[Unregistered]

Another quarter of price increase. Yes!


Every quarter also increase what.

Don't keep saying that anymore.

The sour grapes will become even more sour.

[Unregistered]

Don't keep saying that anymore.

The sour grapes will become even more sour.
OK OK.
Let's say something negative. They will like it.

SIBOR crash crash crash.
SIBOR burned burned burned.
SIBOR die die die.


Industry players expect more homeowners to refinance their mortgage loans

By Wong Siew Ying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 24 March 2008 1849 hrs


SINGAPORE: Industry watchers expect more home owners to consider refinancing their mortgage loans as interest rates look set to dip further.

In fact, mortgage and financial planning firm SingCapital has seen a three-fold jump in enquiries in the last two months.

Property agents are also getting a crash course in mortgage planning, including answering questions about refinancing of home loans.

This occurs when homeowners seek out more favourable loan packages from other lenders.

Industry players said it's the right time to refinance, which could save a huge amount in interest payments.

Alfred Chia, CEO of SingCapital, said: “Just from last year itself, interest rate could be as high as four per cent, compared to current rates where the average is about 2.5 per cent per annum. There's a big difference over there. Based on what we can see, interest rates will continue to fall, till the next six months."

Market watchers expect interest rates to fall a further half a percentage point in the Singapore Interbank Offered Rate or SIBOR by September.

It's partly linked to the recent cuts in US interest rates to contain the fallout from the sub-prime crisis.

SingCapital said it receives about 60 enquiries on refinancing each month.

Among these, seven in ten are private property owners.

Banks have also been enticing more customers with Maybank, Standard Chartered Bank and DBS among the most aggressive in the home loans market.

Mr Chia added: "There're some packages currently that offer 2.88 fixed for three years with a cash back of one percent. If it's a refinancing case, the one percent cash back would be given to the owners one month after the loans is disbursed.

“So if you add this interest rate, minus the cash rebates, the cumulative rate is only seven over percent, on average every year it's about 2.5 or 2.6 per cent interest.

“And it gives you the stability to plan for other finances, knowing that your monthly instalment for the house is going to be fixed at that price for the next three years.

Even though this may look like a good time to consider refinancing mortgage loans, industry players said home owners should assess the different packages based on their individual needs.

They should also be aware of the potential risks arising from the US sub-prime crisis and inflation. - CNA/vm

[Unregistered]

Another quarter of price increase. Yes!


URA will review Q1 data 1-2 weeks from now.
Based on CPI data, property price index is up.

[Unregistered]

Oh no takers coming..........tells you the state. Maybe speculators panicking.
People just ran out of money and realised it's pointless to burden themselves with a huge mortgage.

Some who have the money don't qualify. But they are squeezed because private property is too expensive for them.

The question is how big is the current spculative bubble and what will catalyse its bursting.

[Unregistered]

People just ran out of money and realised it's pointless to burden themselves with a huge mortgage.

Some who have the money don't qualify. But they are squeezed because private property is too expensive for them.

The question is how big is the current spculative bubble and what will catalyse its bursting.
The speculative bubble was very small and government has bursted it by removing DFS and increasing DC. So we are in a very healthy state now.

[Unregistered]

URA will review Q1 data 1-2 weeks from now.
Based on CPI data, property price index is up.
Because of the sour grapes, we have a smaller rise this quarter.

Never mind, US housing sale has turned around, next quarter rise will be higher.

[Unregistered]

People just ran out of money and realised it's pointless to burden themselves with a huge mortgage.

Some who have the money don't qualify. But they are squeezed because private property is too expensive for them.

The question is how big is the current spculative bubble and what will catalyse its bursting.

Wrong !!
People just realised that they are suckers to buy Boon Keng. Condo finishing so what ? The HDB flats just across the road is selling for 40% lesser. Use the difference of 40% for the renovation and you can build a luxurious-style setting in your home.

[Unregistered]

You can buy a LV Bag for a few k

You cab buy a LV Bag for less then hundred too

Both may look alike

but one is fake one hahaha

[Unregistered]

Wrong !!
People just realised that they are suckers to buy Boon Keng. Condo finishing so what ? The HDB flats just across the road is selling for 40% lesser. Use the difference of 40% for the renovation and you can build a luxurious-style setting in your home.
In your home? I can't see it so I ain't if you are bullshiting us.

[Unregistered]

Wrong !!
People just realised that they are suckers to buy Boon Keng. Condo finishing so what ? The HDB flats just across the road is selling for 40% lesser. Use the difference of 40% for the renovation and you can build a luxurious-style setting in your home.

Good idea!

Can't afford to stay in Orchard Road condo? Never mind, can also buy an HDB flat at Jurong West and replace all your windows in the house with Plasma TVs that show Orchard Road sceneries 24 hours.

Each 100" Plasma TV costs around $20,000. Even if you buy 10 of them, at most that's $200,000.

Master bedroom's window Plasma TV "looks out" towards Tang Dynasty building; Living room's window Plasma TV "looks out" towards Goodwoord Park; Kitchen window Plasma TV "looks out" towards Stevens Road.

At night, the Plasma TVs will change the "day sceneries" into "night sceneries" and the roads will light up with car headlights. Beautiful!

Somedays, can also change channel to the Manhattan skyline, or overlook Canary Wharf.

When the loan shark comes your neighbour's house, the Plasma TV at the door will replace his image to show a butler bringing a pig head to your neighbour "Madam! Your lunch is ready ..."

[Unregistered]

Since when 100 inch plasma tv cost $20,000? at least $80k above...

[Unregistered]

The STI stock market index has plunged about 20% from its peak, but the URA property index still seems to move up exponentially.

How can this be?

Let’s study the STI graph superimposed over the URA property index graph. Both graphs are scaled such that their time axes coincide, and their Asian financial crisis bottoms & dotcom peaks are at the same levels. STI is indicated by the dark blue line, while the pink line with blue crosses is for the URA index for condominiums (the other lines are for detached, semi-detached, terrace and apartments):

http://www.salary.sg/historical-prop...2008-large.gif

You should be able to see from the 2 graphs that the property bottom in end 1998 lagged the stocks bottom by about a quarter (i.e. 3 months). Similarly, the property peak in mid 2000 also lagged the stocks peak by about 1 to 2 quarters.

Now, fast forward to end 2007. The stock market has clearly tanked, amidst high inflation and comparatively stagnant salaries. But property is apparently still moving up, up and up! This can’t continue.

I hereby predict that property prices will plunge within the next 3 to 6 months. By at least 20%.

Want more evidence? In the last month (February), property developers were so spooked by the worsening economy that they launched only 343 units in the whole country, out of which only a miserable 170 got sold (excluding ECs). Oh yeah, maybe it’s the Chinese New Year.

References: URA news release and STI data in Yahoo! Finance.

[Unregistered]

Really pissed with all these speculators.
Burn them to hell.
SIBOR is going drop to 0.75% soon.
Let these speculators get a taste of their own medicine.

Get ready for the action.
When SIBOR hit 0.75%, there will be blood everywhere.
Kill kill kill! Die die die!
Ha ha ha!


http://www.straitstimes.com/STI/STIMEDIA/common/mast_home.gif
Singapore interest rates likely to fall further
Fed cut and robust Sing$ could push interbank lending rate below 1%
Nicholas Fang
The Straits Times
Monday, 24 March 2008

Singaporeans can expect cheaper mortgages but lower savings and fixed deposit rates in the months to come.

This is after a move by the United States Federal Reserve to slash a key US interest rate last week.

The Fed had cut three-quarters of a point off its federal funds rate, bringing it to 2.25%, to fight a mushrooming credit crisis and a slowing US economy.

Economists in Singapore said the lowering of the Fed funds rate will have a knock- on effect in the Republic.

The Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (Sibor), or the rate at which banks lend to one another, tends to track the Fed rate.

Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng said: 'For Singapore rates, the trend is downwards. We expect the Fed to cut its rate to 1% and Singapore should follow with a lag.'

http://i266.photobucket.com/albums/ii268/kcc0002/GoingDown24Mar08.jpg

He lowered his forecast for the Sibor, estimating it would fall to as low as 0.75% by the end of the third quarter, down from an earlier estimate of 1%.

A recent report by DBS Group Research also forecast the Sibor would fall, to 0.83% in the second quarter, and remain at that rate through the second half before rising next year.

The three-month Sibor fell to a 12-month low of 1.25% last Monday, before recovering to 1.425% on Thursday, ahead of the Good Friday public holiday.

Mr Kit said Singapore rates were also affected by the Singapore dollar's appreciation against the US currency. He said the Singdollar is most probably at the top end of the secret trade-weighted band within which the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) guides the currency.

'With the Singdollar expected to continue appreciating, MAS will aim to moderate it by flooding the market with liquidity, which will in turn pressure interest rates downwards,' he said.

OCBC economist Selena Ling said another consequence of the strong Singdollar would be a high inflow of foreign capital into the Republic. 'This can also contribute to lower interest rates.'

For consumers, the net result is both good and bad.

Banks recently embarked on a mortgage loan war, with Maybank firing the first salvo last month with an aggressive three-year, fixed-rate package offered at 1.68% for the first year.

DBS Bank and United Overseas Bank (UOB) have also unveiled attractive packages. UOB has one that offers a zero rate in the first year.

And with Sibor-linked home loan package rates likely to head south too, it could be a good time to refinance mortgage loans, experts said.

A DBS spokesman said: 'DBS offers transparent mortgage rates pegged to the Sibor and the CPF Ordinary Account rate, so our rates will move in tandem with market forces.'

But there is also the possibility that savings and fixed deposit rates could slump as interest rates go down.

OCBC's vice-president for group wealth management, Mr Fabian Lum, said the bank would review its deposit rates to keep them in line with prevailing market conditions.

And while the bank has not changed its savings rate recently, it lowered its 12-month fixed deposit rate for amounts between $50,000 and $1 million to 1.2% a year from 1.4% earlier this month.

DBS said that its savings deposit rates had not been adjusted since 2005, but added that its fixed deposit rates are always pegged to the interbank rate and would thus be adjusted accordingly.

CIMB-GK economist Song Seng Wun said that the low interest rates did not reflect a lack of liquidity on the part of banks. 'The loans-deposit ratio is still very strong, so banks definitely have the money to lend,' he said.

'But I think there is greater caution now, after what has happened in the US with the sub-prime crisis, and people are much more cautious nowadays when it comes to borrowing and lending money.'

[Unregistered]

The STI stock market index has plunged about 20% from its peak, but the URA property index still seems to move up exponentially.

How can this be?

Let’s study the STI graph superimposed over the URA property index graph. Both graphs are scaled such that their time axes coincide, and their Asian financial crisis bottoms & dotcom peaks are at the same levels. STI is indicated by the dark blue line, while the pink line with blue crosses is for the URA index for condominiums (the other lines are for detached, semi-detached, terrace and apartments):

http://www.salary.sg/historical-prop...2008-large.gif

You should be able to see from the 2 graphs that the property bottom in end 1998 lagged the stocks bottom by about a quarter (i.e. 3 months). Similarly, the property peak in mid 2000 also lagged the stocks peak by about 1 to 2 quarters.

Now, fast forward to end 2007. The stock market has clearly tanked, amidst high inflation and comparatively stagnant salaries. But property is apparently still moving up, up and up! This can’t continue.

I hereby predict that property prices will plunge within the next 3 to 6 months. By at least 20%.

Want more evidence? In the last month (February), property developers were so spooked by the worsening economy that they launched only 343 units in the whole country, out of which only a miserable 170 got sold (excluding ECs). Oh yeah, maybe it’s the Chinese New Year.

References: URA news release and STI data in Yahoo! Finance.

You analysis is over simplistic.

Have you asked yourself why there is a time lag between stocks and property prices?

Are property investors foolish not to see the trend and quickly buy when stocks go up and sell when stocks go down?

There is a reason.

Stock prices are very volatile. It can go up and down quickly depending on the news.

So what happens if you sell your property today and then in the next few months the stock index goes up again?

Each transaction (sell/buy) of property incurs substantial costs. Let's say you sell today. You have to pay legal fees approximately 0.5% and agent's fee 2%, total is 2.5%. Then in a few months if the market recovers, you have to buy back and incur another legal fee of 0.5% and stamp duty of approximately 3%, total 3.5%.

Each sell/buy costs you approximately 6%, not including the time and effort to scout around and bargain, which can be very time consuming and eats into your opportunity costs in your career/business, which can end up even more.

Furthermore, when you buy back during a rising market, prices can shoot up very fast and you may end up buying back an equivalent property at a much higher price.

Property is a long term investment (similar to insurance).

Just buy and hold it. That's the best strategy.

[Unregistered]

Consumer Confidence in U.S. Fell More Than Forecast

By Bob Willis

March 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer confidence fell more than forecast in March as Americans' outlook on the economy dropped to the lowest level since Richard Nixon was in the White House.

The Conference Board's confidence index fell to 64.5, a five-year low, from a revised 76.4 in February, the New York- based research group said today. A separate report showed home prices in January fell by the most on record.

Declining stock and property values have also unnerved Americans, heightening concern spending will falter. Without consumers, which account for more than two-thirds of the economy, the slowdown triggered by the collapse in housing and credit markets is likely to deepen in coming months.

``Consumers are decidedly negative, suggesting a pullback in consumer spending and an economy in recession,'' Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York, said before the report.

The Conference Board's gauge of expectations for the next six months slumped to 47.9, the lowest since December 1973, when the Watergate scandal rocked the Nixon administration and an embargo by a group of Arab oil exports was in effect, the report showed.

Stock prices extended declines following the report and Treasury securities maintained gains. The Standard & Poor's 500 index was down 0.4 percent at 1,345.0 at 10:05 a.m. in New York. The yield on the 10-year note fell to 3.49 percent from 3.56 percent late yesterday.

Forecasts

Economists forecast the Conference Board's measure would fall to 73.5 from a previously reported 75, according to the median of 61 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 65 to 76.

Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in January by the most on record, a sign the housing recession is deepening, a private survey also showed today. The S&P/Case- Shiller home-price index dropped 10.7 percent from January 2007, after a 9 percent decrease in December. The gauge has fallen for 13 consecutive months.

The measure of present conditions declined to 89.2 in March from 104 the prior month.

The share of consumers who said jobs are plentiful dropped to 18.8 percent from 21.5 percent last month. Those saying jobs are hard to get increased to 25.1 percent from 23.4 percent.

Lowest Ever

The proportion of people who expect their incomes to rise over the next six months fell to 14.9 percent, the lowest since record keeping began in 1967, from 18 percent. The share expecting more jobs dropped to 7.7 percent from 8.9 percent.

Federal Reserve policy makers have lowered the benchmark interest rates and pumped money into the banking system to try to make it cheaper and easier for Americans to borrow and spend.

The central bank earlier this month carried out its first emergency weekend action in almost three decades and became the lender of last resort to the biggest dealers in government bonds. Two days later, it reduced the target interest rate by three-quarters of a point and acknowledged risks had increased.

``Growth in consumer spending has slowed and labor markets have softened,'' the Fed said after it cut the key rate to 2.25 percent. ``The outlook for economic activity has weakened further.''

`Serious Medicine'

The cuts ``are definitely serious medicine for the economy which is very sick,'' Michael Jackson, chief executive officer of AutoNation Inc., the largest publicly traded U.S. car dealer, said in a March 19 interview with Bloomberg Television. ``The consumer is under extreme stress.''

The number of Americans collecting jobless benefits swelled this month to the highest in more than three years as automakers, construction companies and financial firms fired workers. The economy lost 63,000 jobs in February, the most in five years, according to figures from the Labor Department.

More homes are also being foreclosed as the drop in values leaves owners owing more than a property is worth.

For those still in their homes, falling prices lead to a loss of wealth that makes Americans less inclined or able to borrow to finance spending.

What's more, regular gasoline rose to a record $3.28 a gallon on average last week and crude oil reached a record above $111 a barrel.

Spending is already taking a hit. Retail sales fell 0.6 percent in February, the Commerce Department reported last week, the second decline in three months.

Consumer spending may grow at an annual rate of 0.5 percent this quarter, the slowest pace since the 1991 recession, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed this month by Bloomberg News.

More and more economists are forecasting a recession. Martin Feldstein, the Harvard economics professor who heads the research group that determines when downturns begin, said this month that a contraction had already begun.

[Unregistered]

Merrill's 2008 Profit Estimate Cut 45% at JPMorgan

By Allen Wan and Aaron Clark

March 25 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co. fell for the first time in three days after JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut its 2008 profit estimate for the third-largest U.S. securities firm by 45 percent on concern that further writedowns may reduce earnings.

Merrill slipped 73 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $47.65 at 9:41 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The stock has fallen 44 percent over the past year, compared with a 27 percent decline in the Standard and Poor's 500 Financials Index.

Analyst Kenneth Worthington lowered his earnings estimates for this year to $2.75 a share from the previous projection of $5 a share. For 2009, he now expects New York-based Merrill to earn $5.09 a share, down from the previous estimate of $5.57.

``With the credit environment continuously challenging, we are less optimistic about a material recovery in 2008,'' Worthington wrote in a note dated yesterday. The analyst kept his ``neutral'' rating on Merrill.

Merrill may report a total of $5 billion in additional losses on collateralized debt obligations, so-called Alt-A mortgages and commercial mortgages, the New York-based analyst said. The securities firm has posted $24.5 billion in asset writedowns since the beginning of 2007.

[Unregistered]

http://l.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/us/nws/p/reuters_logo_94.png
HK stocks end 6.43% higher in biggest one-percentage gain in 2 months
Reuters
Hong Kong
Tuesday, 25 March 2008

Asian shares climbed on Tuesday, and the dollar held its gains, after JPMorgan raised its bid for Bear Stearns and US home sales rose unexpectedly, lifting expectations for a recovery in the US housing and credit markets.

Japanese government bond futures retreated, pulling away from last week's five-year highs, after US Treasuries slid on tentative hopes the world's top economy would weather the credit crisis.

Financial stocks, from Seoul's Kookmin Bank, to Australia's Babcock & Brown, rang up big gains after JP Morgan Chase & Co's sweetened offer for Bear Stearns signalled there was more value in financial assets than previously thought.

MSCI's index of shares outside Asia rose 1.9% by 9.50am Singapore time, the third day of gains, although the benchmark is still down around 16% this year.

Stocks on Wall Street rallied on Monday after a long Easter holiday weekend, with the Dow Jones industrial average rising 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite Index gaining 3%.

Better-than-expected US housing data also helped to lift optimism over the economic outlook.

'If there's even a hint that the US housing slump might be coming to an end, and combined with an improved offer for Bear Stearns, it gives people hope that maybe the darkest period is over,' said Mr Hans Kunnen, head of investment markets research at Colonial First State in Sydney. 'But the market is just operating like a yo-yo within a band. I refuse to get carried away.'

Kuala Lumpur

Malaysian share prices closed 2.4% higher on Tuesday due to the overnight rally on Wall Street, dealers said.

The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index closed up 28.93 points at 1,229.95, off a high of 1,234.58.

Hong Kong

Hong Kong stocks surged 6.43% on Tuesday, the biggest one-day percentage gain in two months, tracking Wall Street gains on improved investor confidence after JP Morgan?s raised offer for Bear Stearns.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index ended at 22,464.52.

The China Enterprises Index of Hong Kong-listed mainland companies, or H shares, finished up 8.22% at 11,727.00.

Shanghai

Chinese stocks ended higher on Tuesday, led by property and airline shares, as the main stock index rebounded from technical support to close almost unchanged after tumbling near a nine-month low in early trade.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which sank 4.49% on Monday, ended Tuesday up 0.09% at 3,629.619 points. It hit an intra-day low of 3,521.528 in the morning, just off last Thursday's nine-month low of 3,516.330.

Rising Shanghai shares outnumbered falling stocks by 639 to 242, but turnover in Shanghai A shares shrank to a thin 77.6 billion yuan ($15.23 billion) from Monday's 88.3 billion yuan.

The index's recovery during the day was its second bounce from near technical support at 3,561, the 50% retracement of its bull run from June 2005; the first bounce occured last week. So many analysts believe that area may be the bottom for the market in the short term at least.

Tokyo

Japan's Nikkei average rose 2.1% on Tuesday as Canon and other exporters climbed with the yen trading well off a near 13-year high posted last week against the dollar, easing some concerns about exporters' earnings outlooks.

Sharp gains in other Asian markets also gave a boost to the Tokyo bourse, where investors continued to pick up recently battered shares.

The benchmark Nikkei ended up 265.13 points at 12,745.22. The Nikkei ended near flat on Monday, snapping a three-day winning streak. The broader Topix index added 1.5% to 1,242.98. The index rose for the fifth straight session.
Everything just start surging.

Look at HongKong HSI, up by 6.43%!!

[Unregistered]

http://www.straitstimes.com/STI/STIMEDIA/common/mast_home.gif
STI closes higher, above 3,000
The Straits Times
Tuesday, 25 March 2008

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/144/350299905_782a8feaf9.jpg
SGX Centre 1

Singapore shares ended higher on Tuesday with the benchmark Straits Times Index up 72.40 points or 2.47% to 3,000.19.
Singapore is up too.

[Unregistered]

some did not meet the required criteria, how many?
Wait for STI to hit 3300 in 1-2 months time, people will start to camp outside HDB to grab those leftover units, real opportunists.


Want to know why some buyers backed out of Boon Keng HDB?

The prices are equivalent to private condos, but buyers must not earn more than $8,000 -- HDB ruling.

So with such low income and yet can afford to pay more than half a million bucks?

Buy one and you have IRAS going after your necks.

With resale HDB, it is different -- no income ceiling.

[Unregistered]

Want to know why some buyers backed out of Boon Keng HDB?

The prices are equivalent to private condos, but buyers must not earn more than $8,000 -- HDB ruling.

So with such low income and yet can afford to pay more than half a million bucks?

Buy one and you have IRAS going after your necks.

With resale HDB, it is different -- no income ceiling.
But resale HDB flat is old and more expensive leh.
CV @ BK is still cheaper.

[Unregistered]

But resale HDB flat is old and more expensive leh.
CV @ BK is still cheaper.
Aiyah! Just buy condo lor.

[Unregistered]

But resale HDB flat is old and more expensive leh.
CV @ BK is still cheaper.

Yes, it is cheaper by a whisker, but you may not get to live in it if IRAS goes after your neck.

How can a family whose income is below $8000 afford a $600k - $700k property? Similarly, when the char kuey teow seller wears a Rolex and drives a BMW, but pays income tax at the income level of $3,000 p.m., Uncle Sam would be fired if he does not go after the tax evader.

Everything is relative, as the Cantonese saying goes "if you don't have a big head, don't try to wear such a big hat!"

[Unregistered]

Want to know why some buyers backed out of Boon Keng HDB?

The prices are equivalent to private condos, but buyers must not earn more than $8,000 -- HDB ruling.

So with such low income and yet can afford to pay more than half a million bucks?

Buy one and you have IRAS going after your necks.

With resale HDB, it is different -- no income ceiling.

very sharp observation. other reason has to do with the racial ethnicity mix according to my very well informed source. Price and sentiment were side issues. Many keen buyers with income ceiling above 8K tried their luck and got their applications thrown out. Heard not enough Malay and Indian applicants

[Unregistered]

Really pissed with all these speculators.
Burn them to hell.
SIBOR is going drop to 0.75% soon.
Let these speculators get a taste of their own medicine.

Get ready for the action.
When SIBOR hit 0.75%, there will be blood everywhere.
Kill kill kill! Die die die!
Ha ha ha!
You mean those who speculates that SIBOR will go up?

[Unregistered]

You mean those who speculates that SIBOR will go up?
Yes!
Die die die!

[Unregistered]

Yes!
Die die die!
Why die?
I speculate that SIBOR will drop some more.

[Unregistered]

very sharp observation. other reason has to do with the racial ethnicity mix according to my very well informed source. Price and sentiment were side issues. Many keen buyers with income ceiling above 8K tried their luck and got their applications thrown out. Heard not enough Malay and Indian applicants

Thanks for the compliments. I am aware of the race issue, but avoided it for its sensitivity.

The incident also reminded me of the German luxury car manufacturer trying to sell to Indonesia.

They were very successful selling their MBs in Singapore and thought that Indonesia, with its huge population, would buy more MBs. So the marketing people shipped a big lot to Indonesia, but three years later, these brand news MBs were rusting under the sun!

[Unregistered]

Oh any comments on this observation from the expats forum? Seems a knowledgeable chap. Thanks buddy for educating us. I will delay my buying.



I Re: Apartment sales slowing?
« Reply #389 on: 18 March 2008, 23:13:57 PM » Quote

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from: Kubes.SG on 18 March 2008, 23:04:49 PM

The reason I am looking for some rational data-based economic basis for why values will boom again soon in Singapore is because I get nothing but the following soft baseless reasons, that don't link to any meaningful data:

IRs are coming. Rich people will discover Singapore
Singapore Flyer/Eye
F1
Youth Olympics
Singapore Hub for everything
Inflation is high and increasing in Singapore
SGD is rising against USD
India and China booming ecomony
Singapore has limited land
Population will increase to 6.5mln
Financial/Media/Health Hub

My points are the following:

Singapore prime property is grossly overvalued, by historical and global standards - (don't look at the 1996 peak as the benchmark, look at the average of the last 20 years)

Singapore's property cycle is 1-2 years of boom, followed by 1-2 years of decline then 2-5 years of stagnation

About 30,000 new prime properties are booked to be completed by 2010, exceeding demand

Possibly 50% of those were purchased by investors/speculators, many though DPS

DPS entirely skewed the market by allowing speculators/developers/realtors to rapidly pump-up prices with very small financial commitment (2%-20%)

Many of the speculators never planned to own the apartments they bought, but to flip them quickly

With negagitve equity and being highly leverage speculators will be under massive stress. Some will walk, some will sell. Further reducing market prices and sentiment.

Singapore's leadership are publicly bearish on the prime property market declaring prices will decline

Sales of prime properties have collapsed over the in Jan and Feb to the lowest levels in 5 years (BT and ST this week)

Market sentiment is at panic levels. External negative economic pressures and credit crunch is underway now in all developed economies - strong and weak. These will impact Singapore too.

Asia has not "de-coupled" its economies from the US or WE. Singapore's exports indirectly still go mainly to the US. Consumption is till very low in Chinda. With recession in the US the reduced demand will still hit Singapre. Chinda owe Singapore nothing.

Singapore's 2007Q4 GDP shrank 4.8% I fully expect that the SG.gov is currently pumping the local economy hard to avoid a technical recession.

Singapore's productivity rates in 2007 declined by 0.9% - the greatest decline on record

Latest population target is 5.5mln by 2040, or about 10,000 HH per year.

Given current mix that means about 2,000 prime properties required per year

Jobs growth is good, but it is largely at the lowest levels. In coming workers will not be able to live in prime property. Many incoming professionals will not be able to afford prime property rentals without correction

Adam Smith's invisible hand of capitalism will play an influencing role in equalizing the balance

[Unregistered]

Oh any comments on this observation from the expats forum? Seems a knowledgeable chap. Thanks buddy for educating us. I will delay my buying.


all these are pure rubbish.
Consider govt throw in all the infrastructure cost, almost $100Bil to re-make Spore, all these are to appreciate your property in long term.
Plus all the high rental yield you are getting, low loan rate, high material cost, property is the best investment in long term in Spore.
That guys in expat forum if he is not happy with the rental, go Jakarta or Bangkok & work tomorrow, we don't need such expat in Spore.
Let his family worry of their security day & night, let their kids have that kind of education standard & system there, hygiene & environment of their water, air & pollution, medical care when they have illness, corruption govt when they want to have their permit or visa or tax done, language, transport convenience, global exposure, opportunity, advanced & modernised......
ask him to leave & move on to these countries tomorrow.

[Unregistered]

all these are pure rubbish.
Consider govt throw in all the infrastructure cost, almost $100Bil to re-make Spore, all these are to appreciate your property in long term.
Plus all the high rental yield you are getting, low loan rate, high material cost, property is the best investment in long term in Spore.
That guys in expat forum if he is not happy with the rental, go Jakarta or Bangkok & work tomorrow, we don't need such expat in Spore.
Let his family worry of their security day & night, let their kids have that kind of education standard & system there, hygiene & environment of their water, air & pollution, medical care when they have illness, corruption govt when they want to have their permit or visa or tax done, language, transport convenience, global exposure, opportunity, advanced & modernised......
ask him to leave & move on to these countries tomorrow.

Plz be more kind.Soon he will have to stay here 'cos in SE Asia this is still the best and safest place for his family.It is cheaper in other countries but can he accept the trade offs.

[Unregistered]

Oh any comments on this observation from the expats forum? Seems a knowledgeable chap. Thanks buddy for educating us. I will delay my buying.
Its an eyeopener whoever he is. Raised several points and only time will tell. Let us be kind to him till we see what is down the road. Maybe he is right to some extent.
Anyway I think I should delay my buying.

[Unregistered]

all these are pure rubbish.
Consider govt throw in all the infrastructure cost, almost $100Bil to re-make Spore, all these are to appreciate your property in long term.
Plus all the high rental yield you are getting, low loan rate, high material cost, property is the best investment in long term in Spore.
That guys in expat forum if he is not happy with the rental, go Jakarta or Bangkok & work tomorrow, we don't need such expat in Spore.
Let his family worry of their security day & night, let their kids have that kind of education standard & system there, hygiene & environment of their water, air & pollution, medical care when they have illness, corruption govt when they want to have their permit or visa or tax done, language, transport convenience, global exposure, opportunity, advanced & modernised......
ask him to leave & move on to these countries tomorrow.
dubai india better to invest property. just booming with oil and it. see what emirates airline is doing. buying all the big planes. europe to aus hub soon in dubai. the rich sheiks can talk man. they talk only dirhams. oil money can buy anything. kuwaiti fund walked out. ask why? more returns there now. realised that the hype was empty.

[Unregistered]

Singapore Flyer (again!)
« on: Today at 01:50:31 AM » Quote

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I went on the Flyer today for the first time and really enjoyed it. No problem getting tickets for anyone else who is interested in going but has heard this rumour that it's all sold out until August - we just went down there this morning and bought them - no queue .
HYPE HYPE HYPE!!!

[Unregistered]

Re: Singapore Property Prices Increasing
« Reply #28 on: Today at 12:05:06 AM » Quote

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If we look at statistics we must also look between the lines. Not only maths and physic apply here, let's apply history also. If you think the price will increase, how much more will it rise? Of course we have to factor in inflation, we cant deny that. However, we are talking about cyclic pattern here where prices go up and down not when we buy a property 20 years ago for $100,000 and now worth $500,000 or even 40 years ago when we paid only $20,000. Remember 1996? Property prices rose as if there was no tomorrow. Then came the crash and the rest was history. People who paid a million for their condominiums found that they suffered a paper loss in a matter of few months. Even today, they are still licking their wound. During the financial crisis, many lost their jobs and could not even afford to pay their maintenance fee and downgraded to HDB. Even HDB owners found the value of their homes dropped more than 30%. I have been looking for a replacement unit for the past year and knew the ground well. For the past three months, there were only 2 or 3 viewers compared to about 10 last June. For some properties, which I will not name, there is not a single viewer. Newly launched projects are only half taken up compared to last year when all units were sold as soon as they were launched. I have to add that most buyers are speculators then. I know of 1 project which was sold out as soon as it was launched and a property agent bought 16 units in the hope of flipping and earning a very fast buck. Good luck to him. This project TOP since last December but only half of it is occupied now (where are the owners?).Serious sellers are now willing to accept a lower price while speculators are the one who are still holding on to their high asking prices (good luck to them also). The only real buyers in the market now are people like me, the enbloc sellers who have 3 choices, namely, buy a HDB (majority did), a private property or rent. However, not all enbloc sellers are buying, mind you. Out of 48 owners in my development, a few of them own 2 units while 16 owners rented their units out as they have been living in other properties. When the site is redeveloped, there will be more than 70 units available. I am sure the same story applies to other developments as well. As long as there are still enbloc sellers looking for replacement units, there is still a demand. The question is, how long can enbloc sellers hold up the market? Dont forget, there is only 1 enbloc deal this year.

More enblocs will come and enblocs will drive the market what.

[Unregistered]

I have some questions for Mr. Expat Forum, can any kind soul here help me to convey?


Singapore prime property is grossly overvalued, by historical and global standards - (don't look at the 1996 peak as the benchmark, look at the average of the last 20 years)

I don't know what you mean by "overvalued". If you look at the average of the last 20 years, almost all global cities have gone up tremendously, not just Singapore.

Bombay, Shanghai, London, New York, Hong Kong.

If you look at Hong Kong's property market here:
http://business.fullerton.edu/finance/jrel/papers/pdf/past/2005vol13n3/05.337_356.pdf

and Singapore's property market here:
www.redas.com/einformation/mt/researchpaper/PPIGovtmeasures.pdf

You can see that both Singapore and Hong Kong have gone up almost synchronously.

London's property prices have also gone up by 279% in the last 10 years.
http://www.easier.com/view/House_Prices/article-109868.html

Hence can you tell me which major international city is not "overvalued" compared to their historical value?

(Please exclude cities like Yangon, Kabul and Baghdad).


Singapore's property cycle is 1-2 years of boom, followed by 1-2 years of decline then 2-5 years of stagnation

Where did you get this idea from?

Look at the following residential price chart from 1960 to 2006

www.redas.com/einformation/mt/researchpaper/PPIGovtmeasures.pdf

Did you see the continuous climb all the way from Q2 1986 (Index at 33.5 points) all the way to Q2 1996 (Index at 181.4 points). Exactly 10 years and a rise of 440%. Bull-run of the decade!

What do you mean by 1-2 years of boom, followed by 1-2 years of decline?


About 30,000 new prime properties are booked to be completed by 2010, exceeding demand

Can you tell me how do you know that this supply of 30,000 has exceeded the demand?

How did you work out the demand? What are the formulae and data you used to work out the demand?

What exactly is the demand?


Possibly 50% of those were purchased by investors/speculators, many though DPS

DPS entirely skewed the market by allowing speculators/developers/realtors to rapidly pump-up prices with very small financial commitment (2%-20%)

Many of the speculators never planned to own the apartments they bought, but to flip them quickly

With negagitve equity and being highly leverage speculators will be under massive stress. Some will walk, some will sell. Further reducing market prices and sentiment.

Why should the speculators be under "massive stress"? The apartments can easily be rented out.

Don't forget that all the projects coming up TOP this year were bought in 2005, when the price was only 50% of what it is today.

With a rental yield of around 5% (based on current prices) and a mortgage interest rate of only 3%, the bank is subsidising borrowers to the tune of 2% p.a.

For those who've bought 3 years ago at half price (compared to today), that's a yeild of 10% versus a mortgage interest of 3%, the bank is subsidising borrowers to the tune of 7%.

Furthermore, rentals are expected to continue to rise due to the influx of foreingers. Read the following article:

"HDB, private apartment rentals set to rise

By Wong Siew Ying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 03 April 2008 0050 hrs
SINGAPORE : Rentals for HDB and mass market private apartments are set to rise in the coming years, with more foreign workers heading for Singapore."

If it looks familiar, it's because it's the title for one of the threads in this forum. Go and read the full article over there.

Please explain where is the "massive stress" coming from?

Is getting 7% p.a. from the bank stressful? Are you referring to the "massive stress" of having too much money?


Singapore's leadership are publicly bearish on the prime property market declaring prices will decline

That is really strange!

MM Lee just said during Chinese New Year on 11 Feb 2008 that "By 2011, the Marina Bay Area will be splendid, especially a water plaza, surrounded by a promenade fronting financial centres, integrated resorts, residential condominiums, food and beverages outlets, an enchanting sight to behold. It will be a unique city centre. We will not leave our heartlands behind. All new towns will be upgraded and beautified. The massive new investments in infrastructure and beautification, plus a steadily growing economy, with higher incomes, will keep property values going up."

You can read his full speech here:

http://app.sprinter.gov.sg/data/pr/20080211985.htm

May I ask whether MM Lee is considered part of "Singapore's leadership"?


Sales of prime properties have collapsed over the in Jan and Feb to the lowest levels in 5 years (BT and ST this week)

Market sentiment is at panic levels. External negative economic pressures and credit crunch is underway now in all developed economies - strong and weak. These will impact Singapore too.

If sentiment is at "panic level", why then does the URA property price index rise 6.6% in Q4 2007 and then another 4.2% in Q1 2008?

http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2008/pr08-35.html

Remember that all these happened after the U.S. subprime had started.

If sentiment is at "panic level", then prices should decrease, instead of increase. Are you referring to "panic level" of the buyers, or "panic level" of the sellers?


Asia has not "de-coupled" its economies from the US or WE. Singapore's exports indirectly still go mainly to the US. Consumption is till very low in Chinda. With recession in the US the reduced demand will still hit Singapre. Chinda owe Singapore nothing.

Singapore's 2007Q4 GDP shrank 4.8% I fully expect that the SG.gov is currently pumping the local economy hard to avoid a technical recession.

Singapore's productivity rates in 2007 declined by 0.9% - the greatest decline on record

According to the Ministry of Trade and Industry, "Singapore growth slows to 6.0% in fourth quarter"

Even "On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised basis, real GDP fell by 3.2 per cent in the quarter compared with a 4.4 per cent gain in the preceding quarter, reflecting a slowdown in the manufacturing sector".

May I known where did you get the figure "shrank 4.8%" from?

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/320244/1/.html


Latest population target is 5.5mln by 2040, or about 10,000 HH per year.

Given current mix that means about 2,000 prime properties required per year

Jobs growth is good, but it is largely at the lowest levels. In coming workers will not be able to live in prime property. Many incoming professionals will not be able to afford prime property rentals without correction

Adam Smith's invisible hand of capitalism will play an influencing role in equalizing the balance

What you mean by "Jobs growth is good, but it is largely at the lowest levels. In coming workers will not be able to live in prime property. Many incoming professionals will not be able to afford prime property rentals"?

Read the following article:

Steaming demand for senior private bankers
7 February 2007

UBS isn't the only one beefing up its senior private banking ranks in Singapore.

The Swiss bank relocated Carlo Grigioni, its formerly Swiss-based global head of private wealth management, to Singapore this month.

Pay for these top individuals is generous – the salary for the average private banker is around S$300k (US$195k). But it can reach considerably more than that. "Last year we came across a few candidates who will hit S$700k to $800k in total compensation," says Koh.

http://news.efinancialcareers.sg/NEWS_ITEM/newsItemId-9212

Do you think that with a salary of S$300k to $800k per year, these "low level workers" will be able to live in prime properties?

[Unregistered]

Its an eyeopener whoever he is. Raised several points and only time will tell. Let us be kind to him till we see what is down the road. Maybe he is right to some extent.
Anyway I think I should delay my buying.
YOU ARE RIGHT. I AM WITH YOU. WHATEVER HIS SOURCE OF INFO IS ONE THING IS TRUE THAT PRICES ARE GOING DOWN AND WILL GO DOWN TO 2005 LEVELS. EVERYTHING IS HYPE TO PULL MARKET UP.
CDL CHIEF WANTS DPS TO BE REINSTATED SO THAT A FEW MORE SPECULATORS CAN BUY. RIGHTLY THE MINISTER DIDNT AGREE. SEE WHAT HAPPENED IN USA.
HOW CAN SINGAPORE FLYER BRING IN MORE COND BUYERS? THE TICKET SELLERS OR SECURITY? TOURISTS WONT BUY RIGHT?
I SEE PRICE DROPPING 30%.

[Unregistered]

I have some questions for Mr. Expat Forum, can any kind soul here help me to convey?



I don't know what you mean by "overvalued". If you look at the average of the last 20 years, almost all global cities have gone up tremendously, not just Singapore.

Bombay, Shanghai, London, New York, Hong Kong.

If you look at Hong Kong's property market here:
http://business.fullerton.edu/finance/jrel/papers/pdf/past/2005vol13n3/05.337_356.pdf

and Singapore's property market here:
www.redas.com/einformation/mt/researchpaper/PPIGovtmeasures.pdf

You can see that both Singapore and Hong Kong have gone up almost synchronously.

London's property prices have also gone up by 279% in the last 10 years.
http://www.easier.com/view/House_Prices/article-109868.html

Hence can you tell me which major international city is not "overvalued" compared to their historical value?

(Please exclude cities like Yangon, Kabul and Baghdad).



Where did you get this idea from?

Look at the following residential price chart from 1960 to 2006

www.redas.com/einformation/mt/researchpaper/PPIGovtmeasures.pdf

Did you see the continuous climb all the way from Q2 1986 (Index at 33.5 points) all the way to Q2 1996 (Index at 181.4 points). Exactly 10 years and a rise of 440%. Bull-run of the decade!

What do you mean by 1-2 years of boom, followed by 1-2 years of decline?



Can you tell me how do you know that this supply of 30,000 has exceeded the demand?

How did you work out the demand? What are the formulae and data you used to work out the demand?

What exactly is the demand?



Why should the speculators be under "massive stress"? The apartments can easily be rented out.

Don't forget that all the projects coming up TOP this year were bought in 2005, when the price was only 50% of what it is today.

With a rental yield of around 5% (based on current prices) and a mortgage interest rate of only 3%, the bank is subsidising borrowers to the tune of 2% p.a.

For those who've bought 3 years ago at half price (compared to today), that's a yeild of 10% versus a mortgage interest of 3%, the bank is subsidising borrowers to the tune of 7%.

Furthermore, rentals are expected to continue to rise due to the influx of foreingers. Read the following article:

"HDB, private apartment rentals set to rise

By Wong Siew Ying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 03 April 2008 0050 hrs
SINGAPORE : Rentals for HDB and mass market private apartments are set to rise in the coming years, with more foreign workers heading for Singapore."

If it looks familiar, it's because it's the title for one of the threads in this forum. Go and read the full article over there.

Please explain where is the "massive stress" coming from?

Is getting 7% p.a. from the bank stressful? Are you referring to the "massive stress" of having too much money?



That is really strange!

MM Lee just said during Chinese New Year on 11 Feb 2008 that "By 2011, the Marina Bay Area will be splendid, especially a water plaza, surrounded by a promenade fronting financial centres, integrated resorts, residential condominiums, food and beverages outlets, an enchanting sight to behold. It will be a unique city centre. We will not leave our heartlands behind. All new towns will be upgraded and beautified. The massive new investments in infrastructure and beautification, plus a steadily growing economy, with higher incomes, will keep property values going up."

You can read his full speech here:

http://app.sprinter.gov.sg/data/pr/20080211985.htm

May I ask whether MM Lee is considered part of "Singapore's leadership"?



If sentiment is at "panic level", why then does the URA property price index rise 6.6% in Q4 2007 and then another 4.2% in Q1 2008?

http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2008/pr08-35.html

Remember that all these happened after the U.S. subprime had started.

If sentiment is at "panic level", then prices should decrease, instead of increase. Are you referring to "panic level" of the buyers, or "panic level" of the sellers?



According to the Ministry of Trade and Industry, "Singapore growth slows to 6.0% in fourth quarter"

Even "On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised basis, real GDP fell by 3.2 per cent in the quarter compared with a 4.4 per cent gain in the preceding quarter, reflecting a slowdown in the manufacturing sector".

May I known where did you get the figure "shrank 4.8%" from?

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/320244/1/.html



What you mean by "Jobs growth is good, but it is largely at the lowest levels. In coming workers will not be able to live in prime property. Many incoming professionals will not be able to afford prime property rentals"?

Read the following article:

Steaming demand for senior private bankers
7 February 2007

UBS isn't the only one beefing up its senior private banking ranks in Singapore.

The Swiss bank relocated Carlo Grigioni, its formerly Swiss-based global head of private wealth management, to Singapore this month.

Pay for these top individuals is generous – the salary for the average private banker is around S$300k (US$195k). But it can reach considerably more than that. "Last year we came across a few candidates who will hit S$700k to $800k in total compensation," says Koh.

http://news.efinancialcareers.sg/NEWS_ITEM/newsItemId-9212

Do you think that with a salary of S$300k to $800k per year, these "low level workers" will be able to live in prime properties?

friend how can water and food and beverages and condominiums around marina get the economy going? when the world slows down can marina condos make our economy go up? will tourists spend when they cant have rice to eat? inflation world wide is going up. why dont u include all factors.

[Unregistered]

YOU ARE RIGHT. I AM WITH YOU. WHATEVER HIS SOURCE OF INFO IS ONE THING IS TRUE THAT PRICES ARE GOING DOWN AND WILL GO DOWN TO 2005 LEVELS. EVERYTHING IS HYPE TO PULL MARKET UP.
CDL CHIEF WANTS DPS TO BE REINSTATED SO THAT A FEW MORE SPECULATORS CAN BUY. RIGHTLY THE MINISTER DIDNT AGREE. SEE WHAT HAPPENED IN USA.
HOW CAN SINGAPORE FLYER BRING IN MORE COND BUYERS? THE TICKET SELLERS OR SECURITY? TOURISTS WONT BUY RIGHT?
I SEE PRICE DROPPING 30%.
PRICE WILL INCREASE BY 30%?
No lah.
Price only increased by 4.2% in the first 10 weeks of 2008.

[Unregistered]

PRICE WILL INCREASE BY 30%?
No lah.
Price only increased by 4.2% in the first 10 weeks of 2008.
That guy mentioned decrease by 30% because he thought Q1 price dropped by 4.2%. He didn't realised it has increased by 4.2%.

[Unregistered]

dubai india better to invest property. just booming with oil and it. see what emirates airline is doing. buying all the big planes. europe to aus hub soon in dubai. the rich sheiks can talk man. they talk only dirhams. oil money can buy anything. kuwaiti fund walked out. ask why? more returns there now. realised that the hype was empty.
YES I AGREE. SHEIKHS SHAKE THE OIL TREE AND MONEY FALLS. HOW CAN IT HAPPEN HERE WITH THE HIGH LEVEL OF CONDO PRICE. SURE HAS TO DROP 50%.

[Unregistered]

YES I AGREE. SHEIKHS SHAKE THE OIL TREE AND MONEY FALLS. HOW CAN IT HAPPEN HERE WITH THE HIGH LEVEL OF CONDO PRICE. SURE HAS TO DROP 50%.
This blurr cock is talking cork again.

[Unregistered]

This blurr cock is talking cork again.
Typical of that guy. Tomorrow he will tell you price dropping by 500%. Crap!

[Unregistered]

I have some questions for Mr. Expat Forum, can any kind soul here help me to convey?



I don't know what you mean by "overvalued". If you look at the average of the last 20 years, almost all global cities have gone up tremendously, not just Singapore.

Bombay, Shanghai, London, New York, Hong Kong.

If you look at Hong Kong's property market here:
http://business.fullerton.edu/finance/jrel/papers/pdf/past/2005vol13n3/05.337_356.pdf

and Singapore's property market here:
www.redas.com/einformation/mt/researchpaper/PPIGovtmeasures.pdf

You can see that both Singapore and Hong Kong have gone up almost synchronously.

London's property prices have also gone up by 279% in the last 10 years.
http://www.easier.com/view/House_Prices/article-109868.html

Hence can you tell me which major international city is not "overvalued" compared to their historical value?

(Please exclude cities like Yangon, Kabul and Baghdad).



Where did you get this idea from?

Look at the following residential price chart from 1960 to 2006

www.redas.com/einformation/mt/researchpaper/PPIGovtmeasures.pdf

Did you see the continuous climb all the way from Q2 1986 (Index at 33.5 points) all the way to Q2 1996 (Index at 181.4 points). Exactly 10 years and a rise of 440%. Bull-run of the decade!

What do you mean by 1-2 years of boom, followed by 1-2 years of decline?



Can you tell me how do you know that this supply of 30,000 has exceeded the demand?

How did you work out the demand? What are the formulae and data you used to work out the demand?

What exactly is the demand?



Why should the speculators be under "massive stress"? The apartments can easily be rented out.

Don't forget that all the projects coming up TOP this year were bought in 2005, when the price was only 50% of what it is today.

With a rental yield of around 5% (based on current prices) and a mortgage interest rate of only 3%, the bank is subsidising borrowers to the tune of 2% p.a.

For those who've bought 3 years ago at half price (compared to today), that's a yeild of 10% versus a mortgage interest of 3%, the bank is subsidising borrowers to the tune of 7%.

Furthermore, rentals are expected to continue to rise due to the influx of foreingers. Read the following article:

"HDB, private apartment rentals set to rise

By Wong Siew Ying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 03 April 2008 0050 hrs
SINGAPORE : Rentals for HDB and mass market private apartments are set to rise in the coming years, with more foreign workers heading for Singapore."

If it looks familiar, it's because it's the title for one of the threads in this forum. Go and read the full article over there.

Please explain where is the "massive stress" coming from?

Is getting 7% p.a. from the bank stressful? Are you referring to the "massive stress" of having too much money?



That is really strange!

MM Lee just said during Chinese New Year on 11 Feb 2008 that "By 2011, the Marina Bay Area will be splendid, especially a water plaza, surrounded by a promenade fronting financial centres, integrated resorts, residential condominiums, food and beverages outlets, an enchanting sight to behold. It will be a unique city centre. We will not leave our heartlands behind. All new towns will be upgraded and beautified. The massive new investments in infrastructure and beautification, plus a steadily growing economy, with higher incomes, will keep property values going up."

You can read his full speech here:

http://app.sprinter.gov.sg/data/pr/20080211985.htm

May I ask whether MM Lee is considered part of "Singapore's leadership"?



If sentiment is at "panic level", why then does the URA property price index rise 6.6% in Q4 2007 and then another 4.2% in Q1 2008?

http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2008/pr08-35.html

Remember that all these happened after the U.S. subprime had started.

If sentiment is at "panic level", then prices should decrease, instead of increase. Are you referring to "panic level" of the buyers, or "panic level" of the sellers?



According to the Ministry of Trade and Industry, "Singapore growth slows to 6.0% in fourth quarter"

Even "On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised basis, real GDP fell by 3.2 per cent in the quarter compared with a 4.4 per cent gain in the preceding quarter, reflecting a slowdown in the manufacturing sector".

May I known where did you get the figure "shrank 4.8%" from?

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/320244/1/.html



What you mean by "Jobs growth is good, but it is largely at the lowest levels. In coming workers will not be able to live in prime property. Many incoming professionals will not be able to afford prime property rentals"?

Read the following article:

Steaming demand for senior private bankers
7 February 2007

UBS isn't the only one beefing up its senior private banking ranks in Singapore.

The Swiss bank relocated Carlo Grigioni, its formerly Swiss-based global head of private wealth management, to Singapore this month.

Pay for these top individuals is generous – the salary for the average private banker is around S$300k (US$195k). But it can reach considerably more than that. "Last year we came across a few candidates who will hit S$700k to $800k in total compensation," says Koh.

http://news.efinancialcareers.sg/NEWS_ITEM/newsItemId-9212

Do you think that with a salary of S$300k to $800k per year, these "low level workers" will be able to live in prime properties?
Wah lau! Solid man!

[Unregistered]

Typical of that guy. Tomorrow he will tell you price dropping by 500%. Crap!
Yes, quite easy. Just simply type -500% on the PC.

[Unregistered]

Steaming demand for senior private bankers
7 February 2007

UBS isn't the only one beefing up its senior private banking ranks in Singapore.

The Swiss bank relocated Carlo Grigioni, its formerly Swiss-based global head of private wealth management, to Singapore this month.

Pay for these top individuals is generous – the salary for the average private banker is around S$300k (US$195k). But it can reach considerably more than that. "Last year we came across a few candidates who will hit S$700k to $800k in total compensation," says Koh.

http://news.efinancialcareers.sg/NEWS_ITEM/newsItemId-9212

Do you think that with a salary of S$300k to $800k per year, these "low level workers" will be able to live in prime properties?

Firstly, I wouldn't trust UBS too much. They are the top losers in Europe now, and desperate for funds.

Secondly, the average salary for private bankers is only $300k (not $300 to $800k). With $300k, they can only afford $1.5 m property which are so common these days. Hence private bankers are not even high-end property owners. They can't prop up our market.

[Unregistered]

Yes, quite easy. Just simply type -500% on the PC.
Why don't he type "price went up by 4.2%"?

[Unregistered]

Yes, quite easy. Just simply type -500% on the PC.


Why don't he type "price went up by 4.2%"?

Because the sour grape is living in a different world, he does not have access to the URA property price index.

Sour grapes are ghosts that live in the 18th level of Hell (十八层地狱), hoping for 替身 (replacement body).

Their website www.Hell-URA.gov.sg shows that prices have gone down 500%.

[Unregistered]

Because the sour grape is living in a different world, he does not have access to the URA property price index.

Sour grapes are ghosts that live in the 18th level of Hell (十八层地狱), hoping for 替身 (replacement body).

Their website www.Hell-URA.gov.sg shows that prices have gone down 500%.
Your mouth is so smelly - full of bull shit.

Anyway, my advice is to go and find a buyer and realise your gain before it kapoofs into thin air.

[Unregistered]

Your mouth is so smelly - full of bull shit.

Anyway, my advice is to go and find a buyer and realise your gain before it kapoofs into thin air.

Why should I listen to the advice of a ghost who doesn't mean well?

[Unregistered]

Because the sour grape is living in a different world, he does not have access to the URA property price index.

Sour grapes are ghosts that live in the 18th level of Hell (十八层地狱), hoping for 替身 (replacement body).

Their website www.Hell-URA.gov.sg shows that prices have gone down 500%.
Pissed Pissed Pissed
Those stuck are pissed
Thought market would go up
and they could flip
But ended up getting the whip.
Ohhh pissed pissed pissed
Speculators are pissed

[Unregistered]

Your mouth is so smelly - full of bull shit.

Anyway, my advice is to go and find a buyer and realise your gain before it kapoofs into thin air.
Oh no more chance STUCKKKKKKKK OHHHHHHH STUCKKKKK

[Unregistered]

Oh no more chance STUCKKKKKKKK OHHHHHHH STUCKKKKK
Totally agree.

You think so easy to get price to increase by 42%? In their dream!

Too bad for them. Price only went up 4.2%!

[Unregistered]

Totally agree.

You think so easy to get price to increase by 42%? In their dream!

Too bad for them. Price only went up 4.2%!
Stucked at an increase of 4.2%?

[Unregistered]

Stucked at an increase of 4.2%?
Yes. They wanted more.