princess_morbucks
03-02-14, 09:20
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/premium/top-stories/us-recovery-will-happen-time-bofaml-20140203
Its research chief expects US GDP growth to be 3%
[SINGAPORE] This time, the much-touted US recovery story is to be believed, says Ethan Harris, Bank of America Merrill Lynch's co-head of Global Economics Research.
"If you had asked me a year ago, I would've said don't believe the data, because the fiscal cliff was hitting," Mr Harris told BT recently in an exclusive interview. "We know data can just be randomness - it can look good for awhile, then bad for awhile. But as an economist, you become most bullish when the story and the data align with each other - which is what is happening right now."
That story is based on a confluence of factors, with the "most crucial" being the repairment of balance sheets across banks, corporates and households.
In particular, Mr Harris pointed out how the household debt service ratio, an estimate of the share of debt payments to disposable personal income, has fallen to 10 per cent - the lowest it has been in 30 years.
Its research chief expects US GDP growth to be 3%
[SINGAPORE] This time, the much-touted US recovery story is to be believed, says Ethan Harris, Bank of America Merrill Lynch's co-head of Global Economics Research.
"If you had asked me a year ago, I would've said don't believe the data, because the fiscal cliff was hitting," Mr Harris told BT recently in an exclusive interview. "We know data can just be randomness - it can look good for awhile, then bad for awhile. But as an economist, you become most bullish when the story and the data align with each other - which is what is happening right now."
That story is based on a confluence of factors, with the "most crucial" being the repairment of balance sheets across banks, corporates and households.
In particular, Mr Harris pointed out how the household debt service ratio, an estimate of the share of debt payments to disposable personal income, has fallen to 10 per cent - the lowest it has been in 30 years.