View Full Version : Fed cuts stimulus as expected; Bernanke prepares to depart
princess_morbucks
30-01-14, 06:18
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/breaking-news/world/fed-cuts-stimulus-expected-bernanke-prepares-depart-20140130
[WASHINGTON] The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced a further US$10 billion reduction in its monthly bond purchases as it stuck to a plan to wind down its extraordinary stimulus despite recent turmoil in emerging markets.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who hands the central bank's reins to vice chair Janet Yellen on Friday, also adjourned his last policy-setting meeting without making any changes to the US central bank's other main policy plank: its longer-term plan to keep interest rates low for some time to come.
In a statement after the two-day meeting, the Fed said "economic activity picked up in recent quarters," and largely shook off a surprisingly soft reading on December jobs growth.
"Labour market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement," the central bank said.
Nikkei drops 2.55% as at 8.35am. STI will drop %?
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/breaking-news/world/fed-cuts-stimulus-expected-bernanke-prepares-depart-20140130
[WASHINGTON] The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced a further US$10 billion reduction in its monthly bond purchases as it stuck to a plan to wind down its extraordinary stimulus despite recent turmoil in emerging markets.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who hands the central bank's reins to vice chair Janet Yellen on Friday, also adjourned his last policy-setting meeting without making any changes to the US central bank's other main policy plank: its longer-term plan to keep interest rates low for some time to come.
In a statement after the two-day meeting, the Fed said "economic activity picked up in recent quarters," and largely shook off a surprisingly soft reading on December jobs growth.
"Labour market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement," the central bank said.
today asia market sure ANG ANG ... hongbao color :banghead:
Nikkei drops 2.55% as at 8.35am. STI will drop %?
phantom_opera
30-01-14, 07:42
Nikkei drops 2.55% as at 8.35am. STI will drop %?
Nikkei has gained 60% in 2013 ... even saints also will take profit :D
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5eN225&t=2y&q=l&l=on&z=l&c=%5EDJI,%5ESTI&a=v&p=m200&lang=en-SG®ion=SG
Ready to buy some bluechip. Lucky did not get any yesterday. Nikkei is down 2.67% at 8.43am.
today asia market sure ANG ANG ... hongbao color :banghead:
i think still too early to get in. today probably knee jerk reaction
the effect will come after weeks or months where cheap money is reduced and EM currencies plunged further due to QE taper
Ready to buy some bluechip. Lucky did not get any yesterday.
It is with knee jerk where people make $. Remember after lethman bros all asset class went down. :D
i think still too early to get in. today probably knee jerk reaction
the effect will come after weeks or months where cheap money is reduced and EM currencies plunged further due to QE taper
Wunderkind
30-01-14, 08:14
Tapering was expected to begin in September/October 2013 but was delayed by the Federal Reserve ("Fed") due to economic uncertainty and instability. Towards the end of 2013, the Fed announced, however, that they would begin tapering their bond buying by $10 billion to $75 billion a month starting in January and will continue to do so upon signs of an improving economy. We expect tapering will continue throughout 2014 and will likely be completed by the end of the year, recognizing that the Fed is scheduled to meet 8 times in 2014 as of this point in time. After tapering, we anticipate bond sales (i.e. federal balance sheet reductions) beginning in early 2015 and the initial stages of a protracted and measured period of Federal Funds Target Rate increases during the second half of 2015. In this regard, we believe that the Fed will follow a similar blueprint to the one they employed in 2004 - 2006 when they raised this key interest rate by 25 Basis Points (0.25%) on seventeen different occasions over this three-year time period.
In summary, interest rate is set to rise in 2014.
phantom_opera
30-01-14, 08:18
Obama now want to implement something like CPF nicknamed MyRA to keep all the retirement money to fund the garmen bonds :p
Don't worry, they will try all kinds of tricks to ensure garmen debt interest rate is reasonably low :p
I already see signs of accumulation for REITs .. especially those at or below book value ... recently Blackrock just bought 5% CMT @ 1.85
Marc Faber also likes Singapore REITs :rolleyes:
Big question is still the rate of rise?
Asia Indices as at 9.43am:
Nikkei Down 3.13%
Hang Seng-314.28-1.42%21,827.33
<li data-ticker="AS51:IND">ASX 200-48.71-0.93%5,180.30<li data-ticker="SHCOMP:IND">Shanghai-3.98-0.19%2,045.93<li data-ticker="FSSTI:IND">Straits Times-29.10-0.95%3,018.83<li data-ticker="SENSEX:IND">Sensex 30-36.21
Tapering was expected to begin in September/October 2013 but was delayed by the Federal Reserve ("Fed") due to economic uncertainty and instability. Towards the end of 2013, the Fed announced, however, that they would begin tapering their bond buying by $10 billion to $75 billion a month starting in January and will continue to do so upon signs of an improving economy. We expect tapering will continue throughout 2014 and will likely be completed by the end of the year, recognizing that the Fed is scheduled to meet 8 times in 2014 as of this point in time. After tapering, we anticipate bond sales (i.e. federal balance sheet reductions) beginning in early 2015 and the initial stages of a protracted and measured period of Federal Funds Target Rate increases during the second half of 2015. In this regard, we believe that the Fed will follow a similar blueprint to the one they employed in 2004 - 2006 when they raised this key interest rate by 25 Basis Points (0.25%) on seventeen different occasions over this three-year time period.
In summary, interest rate is set to rise in 2014.
princess_morbucks
30-01-14, 09:11
Blood shed today...will STI drop below 3000?
phantom_opera
30-01-14, 09:33
Blood shed today...will STI drop below 3000?
take this opportunity to buy!!!
There will be no "Horse Run". Started queuing. :p
take this opportunity to buy!!!
Latest update:
China's purchasing managers' index (PMI), which tracks manufacturing activity in factories and workshops, fell to 49.5 this month.
I see market more drop after chinese new year.
Big question is still the rate of rise?
Asia Indices as at 9.43am:
Nikkei Down 3.13%
Hang Seng-314.28-1.42%21,827.33
<li data-ticker="AS51:IND">ASX 200-48.71-0.93%5,180.30<li data-ticker="SHCOMP:IND">Shanghai-3.98-0.19%2,045.93<li data-ticker="FSSTI:IND">Straits Times-29.10-0.95%3,018.83<li data-ticker="SENSEX:IND">Sensex 30-36.21
Of course... Let emerging world enjoy so long already. Time for US to enjoy. Rate will interest. USD will raise. Emerging market will have recession. All will have to listen to US again... Looks like another 1997... We should start to see interest rate of emerging market raising to stop the fall of their currency.
I see market more drop after chinese new year.
Bro star
same here
as for S&P....see a possible 100plus points to go :ashamed1:
Of course... Let emerging world enjoy so long already. Time for US to enjoy. Rate will interest. USD will raise. Emerging market will have recession. All will have to listen to US again... Looks like another 1997... We should start to see interest rate of emerging market raising to stop the fall of their currency.
looks like true. but I do not understand why this happen. With the tapering, US does not provide any new opportunies, to my opinion. Any expert to explain?
One thing I think is that only if other ASEAN countries can avoid a crisis like 1997, SG interest will keep low no matter US raise her interest or not. ASEAN is stronger than 1997, right?
puffer_fish
30-01-14, 10:31
My cheque book is ready:D, now all I need is to find that unit
Going for the kill?
My cheque book is ready:D, now all I need is to find that unit
My cheque book is ready:D, now all I need is to find that unit
Hold your horses, I once said market will correct by 20-25% by 2016 and 2013 should be the year of the bears (but it didn't happen thanks to Benanke for delaying the taper).
looks like true. but I do not understand why this happen. With the tapering, US does not provide any new opportunies, to my opinion. Any expert to explain?
One thing I think is that only if other ASEAN countries can avoid a crisis like 1997, SG interest will keep low no matter US raise her interest or not. ASEAN is stronger than 1997, right?
No brainer, they did that to jack up their stock prices. SG does not set its own interest rates, it follows the FED. We already have enough discussion on this which is also the primary reason for the property bubble we have today. What they did with the QE was to give people an illusion of a seemingly good economy. They did that during a deep recession out of desperation. They deceived, they cheated, they lied, they tricked alot folks into thinking the economy was good and they should spend more. What's happening today is they are slowly unwinding it to attract capital inflow to the US which will also help investments and stocks in the long run as their economy is recovering. The net effects are higher inflation (in the US) and rising interest rates, which is the reverse of what they have been doing for the longest time to suppress inflation and interest rates (this is the reason why inflation in the US is still so low today). Win-win for them but not for EM like Malaysia and Singapore. We are just like the beach, tide comes in we're all flooded, tide goes out and we're dry like desert. Like I said in another post, SGD is a pisai to them. They won't even give a damn about other EM like Malaysia, Indonesia, India, Argentina, Turkey. The only valid reason for FED to pause tapering is if contagion spreads to Europe and maybe China (it depends). Get ready for blood bath in year 2014. 2016-2017 shall be the consummation. Save your bullets for rainy days and durian picking ahead.
puffer_fish
30-01-14, 10:55
What I meant was getting the unit I want, in the right location, facing and view would be more reasonable.
saw more good units on the market recently:p
cheers for everyone, happy new year
SG does not set its own interest rates, it follows the FED.
If I remeber correctly, when US rate is above 4% in 2005, SG rate is about 1%.
What they did with the QE was to give people an illusion of a seemingly good economy. They did that during a deep recession out of desperation. They deceived, they cheated, they lied, they tricked alot folks into thinking the economy was good and they should spend more.
To me, people did not believe that economy was good. People spent at most just because they believed in inflation. They believe that the more they bought assets, the more they would gain.
With the tapering, the issued faux money has been circulated in the market. Inflation is already a fact. If USA could take back and burn the faux money, the asset prices would drop like a fall, otherwise, how?
If I remeber correctly, when US rate is above 4% in 2005, SG rate is about 1%.
To me, people did not believe that economy was good. People spent at most just because they believed in inflation. They believe that the more they bought assets, the more they would gain.
With the tapering, the issued faux money has been circulated in the market. Inflation is already a fact. If USA could take back and burn the faux money, the asset prices would drop like a fall, otherwise, how?
http://s13.postimg.org/tnzjihb2r/Untitled_1.jpg (http://postimg.org/image/tnzjihb2r/)
Negative. It was around 2% in 2005 and you can see from the charts above it's tightly pegged against the FED's rates. Inflated stock market gives people the "illusion" of a healthy economy because people are loaded with cash from equity gains. Now, inflation was suppressed due to QE and also a number of govt measures like farming subsidies. I can tell you this because the money from QE didn't go anywhere except for equities and risky assets like Gold, Oil, EM, etc. Their economy is still in a limbo today because that QE money had no effects.
http://s13.postimg.org/tnzjihb2r/Untitled_1.jpg (http://postimg.org/image/tnzjihb2r/)
Negative. It was around 2% in 2005 and you can see from the charts above it's tightly pegged against the FED's rates. Inflated stock market gives people the "illusion" of a healthy economy because people are loaded with cash from equity gains. Now, inflation was suppressed due to QE and also a number of govt measures like farming subsidies. I can tell you this because the money from QE didn't go anywhere except for equities and risky assets like Gold, Oil, EM, etc. Their economy is still in a limbo today because that QE money had no effects.
U are reading old economy book. US is no longer a dominating force. There is EM + China now. Expecting a blood bath at EM market? Please don't hold your breath. I predict at most EM and developed market sink and float together.
My cheque book is ready:D, now all I need is to find that unit
Still early.. Expect things to go ugly after chinese new year ard march/april.. All we can do is to get ready for anything that can happen.
U are reading old economy book. US is no longer a dominating force. There is EM + China now. Expecting a blood bath at EM market? Please don't hold your breath. I predict at most EM and developed market sink and float together.
I don't think so. China financial strength have yet to be tested, we really don't know how good are they in playing this game. But we know US are just expert in this game. US will definitely try to sink this YUAN ship. Just like how they sank YEN and EURO.
I don't think so. China financial strength have yet to be tested, we really don't know how good are they in playing this game. But we know US are just expert in this game. US will definitely try to sink this YUAN ship. Just like how they sank YEN and EURO.
There is no better position to be in than China position now. China is practically milking the USA. China will want this situation as long as possible. However when China rises up to be No. 1 economony, don't expect China to be a gracious master. The world under US is relatively free of economy repression. Its only ideological conflict mostly. When China rises up, all the world resources will be sucked up dry. Then inflation will have a new meaning.
US economy is behaving like a losing chess player. Toward the end of the game, the losing player increasingly make predictable moves. What China is avoiding right now is the breaking up of USA. If USA is breaking up, it will be difficult to face. A single enemy is easier to fight.
US is making a strategic mistake by alienating EM. US and its ally Japan and EU is no match against China+EM because of the demography. A better strategy would be to make EM directly more dependent on US economy. Not, threatening to cut off funding. Cheap funding is not everything. There are other factors such as technology, natural resources, and population growth. I think US economy is being hijacked by bankers who are more interested in short term gain, rather than sustainable growth.
U are reading old economy book. US is no longer a dominating force. There is EM + China now. Expecting a blood bath at EM market? Please don't hold your breath. I predict at most EM and developed market sink and float together.
LOL you must be vested in EM. Nobody is discounting China but saying EM + China is more than US + EU + JP you must be kidding me. Continue dreaming... maybe in 10yrs time...
LOL you must be vested in EM. Nobody is discounting China but saying EM + China is more than US + EU + JP you must be kidding me. Continue dreaming... maybe in 10yrs time...
Did I ever said EM + China is more than US + EU + JP?
The notion that US economy will recover while the rest of EM are in blood bath is beyond me. Where do u get that idea?
Why would suddenly all funds flight out of EM to US? Are u saying high interest rate in the US would triggered such event? US, being the world debtor nation cannot withstand high interest rate.
US and EM actually in the same boat. They will sink and float together. US being an old man dan EM being a baby behave quite similar. They both pee in their pants and eat porridge.
Wunderkind
30-01-14, 15:15
I am out of equity market now having made the most of my profits there in the last few years.
The unwinding of the QE will affect every markets , but the emerging market will suffer the brunt of the impact.
Property market will be down over the next 2 years if the government is not lifting the cooling measures.
Best strategy is to increase cash position in order to take advantage of the opportunities that will present themselves in the near future.
The notion that US economy will recover while the rest of EM are in blood bath is beyond me. Where do u get that idea?
From the fact that EM was having double digit growth (from all the QE money) while the US was still in a slump? What makes you think EM are contributing in a big way to US recovery?
You don't need high interest rates to sink EM. You only need outflow of funds. Even with no interest rates increase, end of QE means alot to the direction of the flow of funds, which used to be flowing from US to EM when there was QE. The reverse can be said when QE is being tapered. Turkey and India are best examples now. Outflow of funds means much more than interest rates BTW. It's a no brainer to an investor that EM are loosing their shine (riskiness considered) in the midst of a brighter prospect in US. STI will be an indicator of an imminent blood bath, do hold your breath.
You don't need high interest rates to sink EM. You only need outflow of funds. Even with no interest rates increase, end of QE means alot to the direction of the flow of funds, which used to be flowing from US to EM when there was QE. The reverse can be said when QE is being tapered. Turkey and India are best examples now. Outflow of funds means much more than interest rates BTW. It's a no brainer to an investor that EM are loosing their shine (riskiness considered) in the midst of a brighter prospect in US. STI will be an indicator of an imminent blood bath, do hold your breath.
Fund returning back to US means what? Higher USD value.
US must be contemplating economy suicide if they do that. US export will be so expensive. EM will gain trade advantage. Trust me they both in the same boat.
I am out of equity market now having made the most of my profits there in the last few years.
The unwinding of the QE will affect every markets , but the emerging market will suffer the brunt of the impact.
Property market will be down over the next 2 years if the government is not lifting the cooling measures.
Best strategy is to increase cash position in order to take advantage of the opportunities that will present themselves in the near future.
Well said :cheers1:
Fund returning back to US means what? Higher USD value.
US must be contemplating economy suicide if they do that. US export will be so expensive. EM will gain trade advantage. Trust me they both in the same boat.
If that's true, the EURO will be below 1.35 now. Exchange rates with EM is the least of their worries now and if it was, they wouldn't have gone forward with tapering in the midst of the EM currency blood bath. US won't give a damn about EM and trade with EM.
If that's true, the EURO will be below 1.35 now. Exchange rates with EM is the least of their worries now and if it was, they wouldn't have gone forward with tapering in the midst of the EM currency blood bath. US won't give a damn about EM and trade with EM.
Ok u win.... Happy now?
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/mas-tightens-unsecured-loans-affect-160000265.html
If that's true, the EURO will be below 1.35 now. Exchange rates with EM is the least of their worries now and if it was, they wouldn't have gone forward with tapering in the midst of the EM currency blood bath. US won't give a damn about EM and trade with EM.
yes.. What US want is a weak EM+China+Japan+EU. In this way, the only choice for reserve currency will only be USD. That is the key of the whole thing. This is currency war. Who cares about the economic. As long as you have the right to print the currency the world want, you win. The world also know USD is just rubbish after printing so much, but why they still use USD? Because if we don't use USD, we use what? SGD? RMB? Riggit? Vietnam Dong? Thai Baht? HkD?
fully agreed. Fed aka US don't give a shit how others and world economy face. they only care about themself. else they would not print money like print newspaper ... everyday non stop printing. when the time is right they will do what they wish so that the world and other countries are threaten by US and usd collapse ... us jump everybody jump ... all die together
If that's true, the EURO will be below 1.35 now. Exchange rates with EM is the least of their worries now and if it was, they wouldn't have gone forward with tapering in the midst of the EM currency blood bath. US won't give a damn about EM and trade with EM.
So better to hold on property?
In 2006, the cost of concrete is $60/m3.
Now it cost $110/m3.
The cost of steel is $600+ back then and it's $1200/ton now.
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=19154&page=22
Material up, Labor up, land price up, how much do you think property will come down your guess is as good as mine.
So better to hold on property?
To hold property you need 20%, to hold others you need more. In 2006 you only need 5% under DPS. Stamp duty still can pay after TOP. Now after all the CMs not much meat left.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) stepped in to initiate a $40 billion program to stabilize the currencies of South Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia, economies particularly hard hit by the crisis.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Asian_financial_crisis
http://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/files/2013/08/Federal-Reserve-detail-2-11-21.png
Guess how much is QE.
In the March 2009 interview on “60 Minutes,” asked if the Fed’s programs were spending tax dollars, Bernanke replied: “It’s much more akin to printing money than it is to borrowing.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-30/bernanke-memorable-moments-from-aig-anger-to-dimon-encounter.html
Question : If they can print Trillion why can't ASEAN print 40 Billion.
fully agreed. Fed aka US don't give a shit how others and world economy face. they only care about themself. else they would not print money like print newspaper ... everyday non stop printing. when the time is right they will do what they wish so that the world and other countries are threaten by US and usd collapse ... us jump everybody jump ... all die together
It seems that somebody agree that US and EM economy doesn't run the opposite direction. In fact some of the US states actually mimicking EM. They have to give a shit about minimising the impact of sudden QE pull out. Their employment is on the line. Therefore its safe to say that, the tapering of QE will be gentle to EM as well as to their own fragile employment number. It would not be a blood bath.
If everyone trusts US less and trust himself/hiself more, the world will be more beautiful.
phantom_opera
31-01-14, 08:01
not peak until S&P500 at 2k, Dow at 20k
just look at NASDAQ, still way below previous bubble mah
buy on dip ...
not peak until S&P500 at 2k, Dow at 20k
just look at NASDAQ, still way below previous bubble mah
buy on dip ...
Next FED meeting, US will cut another 10b QE, the market will go up and down again.
In 2006, the cost of concrete is $60/m3.
Now it cost $110/m3.
The cost of steel is $600+ back then and it's $1200/ton now.
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=19154&page=22
Material up, Labor up, land price up, how much do you think property will come down your guess is as good as mine.
in 1997 a condo launch at 370-400k
in 2009 same condo sold at 420k.
Master can tell me which condo
End of day, whats goes up will come down. Time your entry well to avoid holding the last baton.
End of day, whats goes up will come down. Time your entry well to avoid holding the last baton.
Cannot be more agree...
With MAS tightening of individual unsecured credit till 2015.. we will know if really majority owners have the real holding power. This in fact could be the solution to the root of years of rising prices.
Master can tell me which condo
u need to have the agent website access, realink. which my childhood frd gave me his access password.
from there purchase date, price, unit no, floor plan will be able to find out
in 1997 a condo launch at 370-400k
in 2009 same condo sold at 420k.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_cyLwajfAagA/TUaRUWwbwOI/AAAAAAAAAKw/Ez4foDNZU6U/s1600/IMG_0588.jpg
http://therichkidwannabe.blogspot.fr/2011/01/ever-wondered-how-money-supply-grows-in.html
in 1997 a condo launch at 370-400k
in 2009 same condo sold at 420k.
Do you see something I don't see, or I see something you don't see.
Money = Debt.
When you buy a property let say SGD 535,000 in 2006 and put 20% SGD 108,000, the Bank created SGD 428,000. Then money supply start to increase the property become SGD 1,550,000 in 2010. when everyone start to buy, CM1, CM2, CM3, CM4, CM5, CM6, CM7......... try to stop them from buying.
Do you see something I don't see, or I see something you don't see.
Money = Debt.
I'm replying to your views about construction cost and material cost.
now u talking about debt.
I really don't see what you shifting your initial view.
thank u.
I'm replying to your views about construction cost and material cost.
now u talking about debt.
I really don't see what you shifting your initial view.
thank u.
construction cost and material cost is just a small part of the bigger picture.
In economics, inflation is a persistent increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time.[1] When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlPs10GSJjQ
http://www.straitstimes.com/sites/straitstimes.com/files/20140131/ST_20140131_GRANITE31_4017544e.jpg
http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/singapore/story/indonesian-export-ban-leaves-singapore-short-granite-20140131
Indonesian http://shashinki.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/01/shashinki-ang-pow-001.jpg
in 1997 a condo launch at 370-400k
in 2009 same condo sold at 420k.
I am not sure whether a condo can be as cheap as 400k, but it is true that there are some people sold their condos in 2009 at or below their buying prices in 1997.
but this time those expecting that to happen may be disappointed. To me the reason is quite simple. Last time, the crisis started in ASEAN which solved the problem by tightening their own belts. But looking at this time, US is using a very creative way to solve the problem: QE, and China also follows US's step. with so much paper money shared in the market, the real value of it will naturally depreciate.
Condo price will not drop much. Those waiting for 20% drop is dreaming.
Martin Jacques: Understanding the rise of China
http://www.ted.com/talks/martin_jacques_understanding_the_rise_of_china.html
Property must not only be bought at the right time but also be sold at the right time. Best is to not sell at all. Quite a number of panic spider who bought during 97 crisis either sold at a lost or same price.
Last night DJI down 149 points and S&P 11.6 points. STI on Monday will down how many points.
Property must not only be bought at the right time but also be sold at the right time. Best is to not sell at all. Quite a number of panic spider who bought during 97 crisis either sold at a lost or same price.
Question is how many recent years buyers had real holding power?
Question is how many recent years buyers had real holding power?
as well as strong, unbreakable rice-bowl, even if in govt sector…??
we do have retrenchment in govt sector, years back agoooo..isnt it
Wunderkind
01-02-14, 08:19
Last night DJI down 149 points and S&P 11.6 points. STI on Monday will down how many points.
The US market is at an overbought level. There is a risk of a correction. Unless the US economy is firmly on its feet ( 3.2% growth in Q4 2013 is an initial sign ) and unemployment level drops to below 6.5%, the current valuation of stocks is on the high side. The FED has made the decision to taper the QE this year. At some point, the market can only push higher by real economic growth , no more by artificial liquidity injection.
The biggest impact of the QE tapering is on the emerging markets especially the "fragile five" ( Brazil, Indonesia, India, Turkey, South Africa ) economies. Notwithstanding, China is slowing down on GDP growth which will impact emerging countries to China on commodity and resource exports.
If a financial crisis happens in the emerging markets, will the contagion be spread to the rest of the developing economies including Singapore ? How connected are we to the emerging markets ? Will we have a replica of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis ? What is our government doing today to ensure that we do not get impacted by the risk of the emerging markets' collapse?
What is our strategy as investors ? It depends on your risk appetite. For once, the markets have turned increasingly volatile. If you are risk averse, the advice is to sell / cut loss and watch at the sidelines. If you are willing to take risks, watch for the opportunities to emerge in the emerging markets. Mark Mobius opined the recent slaughter of the emerging markets is overdone and may present good opportunities for long term investment.
The "horse", in this year is wild one , if I may say. So, whatever you do, do not go behind the horse ,that is merely follow the herd blindly or you will be kicked hard. Study the horse, run alongside with it, and only when you are strong enough can you ride on the horse.
Last night DJI down 149 points and S&P 11.6 points. STI on Monday will down how many points.
My guess no more than 1%. I'm going in. Pls go down some more .. ;)
( sorry sounds bad for a new year... But seriously I view this as an opportunity)
It's anybody's guess lah. See last yr end so many analyst says "2014 should go into US equity and leave bonds bla blah". Now one month into this 2014, they are all proven wrong.
Allthepies
01-02-14, 08:48
My guess no more than 1%. I'm going in. Pls go down some more .. ;)
( sorry sounds bad for a new year... But seriously I view this as an opportunity)
It's anybody's guess lah. See last yr end so many analyst says "2014 should go into US equity and leave bonds bla blah". Now one month into this 2014, they are all proven wrong.
errh what stocks to grab ah? :)
My guess no more than 1%. I'm going in. Pls go down some more .. ;)
( sorry sounds bad for a new year... But seriously I view this as an opportunity)
It's anybody's guess lah. See last yr end so many analyst says "2014 should go into US equity and leave bonds bla blah". Now one month into this 2014, they are all proven wrong.
The rest of the world is not easily cheated by US anymore. Babies (EM) and old man (USA) behave quite similar. They both pee in their pants and eat soft food. But at least EM will grow into a strong young man, whereas old man will go into grave. Bet on babies rather than old man.
Did not get any on last thu. Will try on monday too. Will go for bank, oil & gas, ...
My guess no more than 1%. I'm going in. Pls go down some more .. ;)
( sorry sounds bad for a new year... But seriously I view this as an opportunity)
It's anybody's guess lah. See last yr end so many analyst says "2014 should go into US equity and leave bonds bla blah". Now one month into this 2014, they are all proven wrong.
If u see deeply, the drop in US are well coordinated...I sell u sell...and when the time comes, it will be, I buy u buy...and it should rebound soon...my opinion. :2cents:
World biggest casino.....:D
Equity is still the way to go. The economy in US is not stabilize yet, Fed will jam brake on cutting the QE immediately. Low interest rate will prevail for another 2 yrs. my opinion. :)
My guess no more than 1%. I'm going in. Pls go down some more .. ;)
( sorry sounds bad for a new year... But seriously I view this as an opportunity)
It's anybody's guess lah. See last yr end so many analyst says "2014 should go into US equity and leave bonds bla blah". Now one month into this 2014, they are all proven wrong.
If u see deeply, the drop in US are well coordinated...I sell u sell...and when the time comes, it will be, I buy u buy...and it should rebound soon...my opinion. :2cents:
World biggest casino.....:D
Equity is still the way to go. The economy in US is not stabilize yet, Fed will jam brake on cutting the QE immediately. Low interest rate will prevail for another 2 yrs. my opinion. :)
Upon any impact, self healing ability is greater in any EM countries than US. US will be more cautious to implement changes. US now is more centralised than a communist country ever be. Probably more centralised than China.
Allthepies
01-02-14, 12:15
The rest of the world is not easily cheated by US anymore. Babies (EM) and old man (USA) behave quite similar. They both pee in their pants and eat soft food. But at least EM will grow into a strong young man, whereas old man will go into grave. Bet on babies rather than old man.
Old man may turn senile and throw tantrums and then the world will be reseted.... sad endings...
hahaha... You are think US don't know what they are doing? What they (banker) are doing is very simliar to 1997. This is just the standard inflation and deflation cycle that the super rich use to transfer the wealth from the poor/rich to the super rich. It does not matter you are young or old or whatever.. As long as you are a human being, you will fall into the trap. Greed is the word. I am not sure whether you all notice. The inflation in US and EU is well under control although they are crazy printing money. The question is how come? After printing so much money, inflation does not happen? All the print money goes to where? My humble view, all the money flow into emerging market and all the people are being cheat once again by the fake image of a raising economy. All will think that the world economy is recovering.. Property Price Up... Stock Price Up Up.. Asset Price Up Up Up.... Now all the debt to asset ratio is based on this high asset price so looks ok. But what if the asset price falls suddenly? Debt to asset ratio will increase sharply... Then everything will suddenly fall apart...
The above is just my humble view... Those who bought property early in 2009/2010 should be safe as the price is low.. Those who bought after 2011 will be in danger if their leverage is too high... Even MAS noticed this issues and start to come out with all the cooling measures which controls the loan only... The message is cleared from MAS, don't over-leveraged..
princess_morbucks
01-02-14, 12:44
http://sg.entertainment.yahoo.com/news/small-investors-edge-stocks-drop-worldwide-050308900.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
NEW YORK (AP) — January's global sell-off in stocks has left many small investors more puzzled than panicked — and unsure how to act.
They're holding on for now as prices continue to tumble, but their anxiety is mounting. The number of small investors who say they feel "bearish" soared this past week, according to a U.S. survey. Some stock funds have been hit with their biggest withdrawals since 2012.
If more people start selling, it would reverse a new and surprising trend in some of the world's biggest economies: individuals moving back into stocks after years of shunning them.
"I don't know what to do," says Ken Duska, a retiree in Mingo Junction, Ohio, who is sticking with his investment plan for the moment, though he's not sure that's wise. "After (the) upswing last year, it probably isn't going to continue."
Small investors around the world were on edge even before growing signs of a slowdown in China and plunging emerging-market currencies dragged many stock indexes down to their worst start of a new year since 2010. They worried stocks were overdue for a drop, after soaring by double-digit percentages in countries like the United States, Japan and France in 2013. In the U.S., many noted, the market had not fallen by 10 percent or more, known on Wall Street as a correction, for more than two years.
Now, with the Dow Jones industrial average down 5 percent from a recent peak, one is closer at hand.
"The question is, 'Is this all of it, or is there significantly more to come?'" says Greg Sarian, a managing director at the Sarian Group at HighTower, a wealth advisory firm in Pennsylvania.
Anxiety has ramped up in Asia, too.
"Clients were very worried as they haven't seen such market jitters in a while," says Lee Young-hwan, a private banking consultant at Daishin Securities Co. in Seoul, South Korea. Still, he says that many are more inclined to snap up stocks now at lower prices, than to bail out.
That country's main index, the Kospi, is down 3.5 percent since the start of the year. In Japan, the Nikkei is off 8.5 percent, after soaring 58 percent last year. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong has fallen nearly 5.5 percent, after a 3 percent gain.
In Moscow, where the main stock index has been dropping for a year, Marina Pliskina, an English teacher, decided she'd finally had enough. She recently sold all of her stocks. "You want your money to last, but then it goes down and down," she says.
Since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, small investors have mostly dumped stocks. But recently, buoyed by strengthening economies in the developed world, they have crept back into the market in some countries.
In the final four months of last year, nearly $100 billion flowed into stock mutual funds in seven big economies tracked by Lipper Inc., a fund data provider. The countries are the U.S., which accounted for much of the buying, as well as Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Canada and South Korea.
Now, that flow of money might reverse as investors grow worried.
At the start of the year, more than twice as many U.S. investors said they were bullish on stocks than said they were bearish, according to a survey by the American Association of Individual Investors. Now, the bulls and bears are neck and neck, with sentiments yo-yoing along with the indexes.
"I've lost ... maybe $50,000 in the past week, and I'm not happy about it," says Scott Woodall, 44, of Acworth, Ga. "I hate the stock market."
The global tumble started more than a week ago after China reported economic growth had slowed and a key manufacturing measure suggested that sector was contracting. Stocks dropped in developing countries, along with their currencies, on fears that exports of iron ore, soybeans, electronic components and other goods to China would slow.
Adding to the emerging-world woes were some homegrown problems — double-digit inflation in Argentina, for instance, and a corruption probe in Turkey that threatens to destabilize the government. Then, on Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced it would be pulling back even more from its bond-buying program.
That buying has helped pushed U.S. interest rates to record lows, and sent investors to emerging markets in search of higher yields. Now the tide of cash is reversing, hammering those economies as investors pull money out.
A sign of the times: The price of gold, considered the ultimate "safe" asset by spooked investors, is up 3.5 percent this year after plunging 28 percent in 2013. Investors are also buying U.S Treasury bonds, another refuge in fearful times, despite the Fed decision to scale back its purchases. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note, which falls when prices rise, has dropped from 3 percent at the start of the year to 2.65 percent, a big move.
There were other signs Friday that fear might be spreading.
In the U.S., the Standard and Poor's 500 index, a broader measure than the Dow, was down 0.7 percent, a fifth loss in seven trading sessions. That said, the index is well shy of a correction. It is down 3.6 percent from its record close on Jan. 15.
Stocks in Germany also fell Friday, helping to push the country's DAX index down nearly 3 percent in January, despite a strong economy and a low unemployment rate.
So far, some small investors seem willing to ride out the storm, though they don't sound too happy.
Leighanne Franklin, a mental health therapist in Greenwood, N.Y., wonders whether U.S. stocks are "just another bubble." But she is adding to her retirement account anyway, partly because she doesn't want to miss out on matching funds from her employer. "It's better than putting it in a savings account," she says.
Eric Rogers, a home builder in Independence, Ore., says stocks are "inflated," and that he isn't surprised that trouble in emerging countries has pushed the market down.
Still, the 44-year-old is holding onto stocks in his IRA, figuring he can ride out any drops over time.
"It'll be wonderful for me in 20 years," he says, "but right now ... I can't touch it."
hahaha... You are think US don't know what they are doing? What they (banker) are doing is very simliar to 1997. This is just the standard inflation and deflation cycle that the super rich use to transfer the wealth from the poor/rich to the super rich. It does not matter you are young or old or whatever.. As long as you are a human being, you will fall into the trap. Greed is the word. I am not sure whether you all notice. The inflation in US and EU is well under control although they are crazy printing money.
You are right till 1997, after 2009 with all the QE you still think the world still the same?
hahaha... You are think US don't know what they are doing? What they (banker) are doing is very simliar to 1997. This is just the standard inflation and deflation cycle that the super rich use to transfer the wealth from the poor/rich to the super rich. It does not matter you are young or old or whatever.. As long as you are a human being, you will fall into the trap. Greed is the word. I am not sure whether you all notice. The inflation in US and EU is well under control although they are crazy printing money. The question is how come? After printing so much money, inflation does not happen? All the print money goes to where? My humble view, all the money flow into emerging market and all the people are being cheat once again by the fake image of a raising economy. All will think that the world economy is recovering.. Property Price Up... Stock Price Up Up.. Asset Price Up Up Up.... Now all the debt to asset ratio is based on this high asset price so looks ok. But what if the asset price falls suddenly? Debt to asset ratio will increase sharply... Then everything will suddenly fall apart...
The above is just my humble view... Those who bought property early in 2009/2010 should be safe as the price is low.. Those who bought after 2011 will be in danger if their leverage is too high... Even MAS noticed this issues and start to come out with all the cooling measures which controls the loan only... The message is cleared from MAS, don't over-leveraged..
There is no long term prospect in what US doing. It will come to an end one day. But before the flame goes out, it will shine so bright.
Wunderkind
01-02-14, 20:01
hahaha... You are think US don't know what they are doing? What they (banker) are doing is very simliar to 1997. This is just the standard inflation and deflation cycle that the super rich use to transfer the wealth from the poor/rich to the super rich. It does not matter you are young or old or whatever.. As long as you are a human being, you will fall into the trap. Greed is the word. I am not sure whether you all notice. The inflation in US and EU is well under control although they are crazy printing money. The question is how come? After printing so much money, inflation does not happen? All the print money goes to where? My humble view, all the money flow into emerging market and all the people are being cheat once again by the fake image of a raising economy. All will think that the world economy is recovering.. Property Price Up... Stock Price Up Up.. Asset Price Up Up Up.... Now all the debt to asset ratio is based on this high asset price so looks ok. But what if the asset price falls suddenly? Debt to asset ratio will increase sharply... Then everything will suddenly fall apart...
The above is just my humble view... Those who bought property early in 2009/2010 should be safe as the price is low.. Those who bought after 2011 will be in danger if their leverage is too high... Even MAS noticed this issues and start to come out with all the cooling measures which controls the loan only... The message is cleared from MAS, don't over-leveraged..
That is a good observation. Most of the liquidity generated by the QE is not pumped into the US economy and the US consumers. Banks either use the excess liquidity for share buyback or went in search of better yield in emerging markets.
With the tapering of QE, the lenders are now cashing out and returning the funds to US in search of better returns in a improving economy.
However, not all emerging markets will face dire consequences of a outflow if funds. Some of the markets are well regulated and capitalized . Singapore is well cushioned to absorb the fund exodus should it happen.
There is no long term prospect in what US doing. It will come to an end one day. But before the flame goes out, it will shine so bright.
I feel we should not look at this on a country to country basis... It is actually the super rich class of each country fighting with each other. Do you think the super rich cares about the country? Whether the US will fall, I don't think anyone will know.. But of course based on history, US will eventually fall one from the throne as the world only super power. But when this will happen, we will not know.. Maybe we will never see it in our life time. US takes 2 world war and a cold war to gain world supremacy.
the world has changed.....
problem are solved by printing more money. the more crisis we have, the more money is being printed. this process can never be reversed. Hence, money will depreciate meaning, asset like property will stay afloat!
Maybe, we will not see interest in Sg to hit 2% again for next 5 years....:) Why? If not why you think DBS can offer 1.88% flat for next 5 year? U think they are from charitable organisation??? :rolleyes:
my opinion.................:o
I feel we should not look at this on a country to country basis... It is actually the super rich class of each country fighting with each other. Do you think the super rich cares about the country? Whether the US will fall, I don't think anyone will know.. But of course based on history, US will eventually fall one from the throne as the world only super power. But when this will happen, we will not know.. Maybe we will never see it in our life time. US takes 2 world war and a cold war to gain world supremacy.
the world has changed.....
problem are solved by printing more money. the more crisis we have, the more money is being printed. this process can never be reversed. Hence, money will depreciate meaning, asset like property will stay afloat!
Maybe, we will not see interest in Sg to hit 2% again for next 5 years....:) Why? If not why you think DBS can offer 1.88% flat for next 5 year? U think they are from charitable organisation??? :rolleyes:
my opinion.................:o
Bro, the world must be in equilibrium... There will always be
- pessimistic and optimistic
- police and crooks
- pretty and ugly
- buyers and sellers
Hahahahahaha.... If everyone thinks the price of property will go up, who will sell???? If everyone thinks prices will drop, who will buy????
Bro, what u used be able to buy with S$100 in 2008, today with the same S$100, u can only get 1/2...:scared-3::eek:
Cash Money has eroded.... Physical asset has increased in value....
The only thing that keeps dropping in prices are electronics products... Hhahahaha
Moore's law is the observation that, over the history of computing hardware, the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every 18 months. The law is named after Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore, who described the trend in his 1965 paper.[1][2][3] His prediction has proven to be accurate, in part because the law is now used in the semiconductor industry to guide long-term planning and to set targets for research and development.[4]
What you have now is going to be slower after 18 months.
That's why foxconn and the likes do not keep inventory
I feel we should not look at this on a country to country basis... It is actually the super rich class of each country fighting with each other. Do you think the super rich cares about the country? Whether the US will fall, I don't think anyone will know.. But of course based on history, US will eventually fall one from the throne as the world only super power. But when this will happen, we will not know.. Maybe we will never see it in our life time. US takes 2 world war and a cold war to gain world supremacy.
I think you are right. Its the fight of the rich, not country. The poor's saving is going to be continually eroded. The rich will always get easy access to financing and inflated asset. Its a sad fact but true. The QE is all about ripping off the poor americans as much as poor EM citizens. The rich americans and rich EM citizens are both benefited.
I think US will take quite a while to recover from sub prime and eventually remove QE3. But without QE3, i can't imagine what will happen to US and the world. Bernanke has done his best, i guess.
Got vested interests in us properties. Hope economist Janet Yellen can carry on his task well. Shall see when she comes on board federal reserve on 1st feb 2014.
Allthepies
02-02-14, 21:47
is it true that US Federal Reserve has shareholders and most probably the secretive shareholders are the private banks themselves??
"The 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, which were established by the Congress as the operating arms of the nation's central banking system, are organized similarly to private corporations--possibly leading to some confusion about "ownership." For example, the Reserve Banks issue shares of stock to member banks. However, owning Reserve Bank stock is quite different from owning stock in a private company. The Reserve Banks are not operated for profit, and ownership of a certain amount of stock is, by law, a condition of membership in the System. The stock may not be sold, traded, or pledged as security for a loan; dividends are, by law, 6 percent per year."
is it true that US Federal Reserve has shareholders and most probably the secretive shareholders are the private banks themselves??
"The 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, which were established by the Congress as the operating arms of the nation's central banking system, are organized similarly to private corporations--possibly leading to some confusion about "ownership." For example, the Reserve Banks issue shares of stock to member banks. However, owning Reserve Bank stock is quite different from owning stock in a private company. The Reserve Banks are not operated for profit, and ownership of a certain amount of stock is, by law, a condition of membership in the System. The stock may not be sold, traded, or pledged as security for a loan; dividends are, by law, 6 percent per year."
Yes... This is what I understand... ECB is also privately own if I am not wrong. But PBOC is not privately own
Allthepies
02-02-14, 22:16
Yes... This is what I understand... ECB is also privately own if I am not wrong. But PBOC is not privately own
Oops will there be a conflict of interest? :rolleyes:
phantom_opera
03-02-14, 09:04
wow it has been a while STI last hitting below 3k
wow it has been a while STI last hitting below 3k
opportunity comes :)
QE is a drug if u take away the drug suffers will experience with extreme pain.
I will not buy the market now as i see more drop before it get better.
It might retest 3000 again but i think more drop coming.
QE is a drug if u take away the drug suffers will experience with extreme pain.
I will not buy the market now as i see more drop before it get better.
It might retest 3000 again but i think more drop coming.
This is just the start of the whole game. Stock market in emerging market will crash down hard and their currency will drop heavily against USD. Hot money is moving back to US. Country that over-leverage will be in trouble.
Now we just have to see what is China reaction to this. As China banking/currency system is quite different compared to the western world, so we need to see what is their reaction.... The final stage of the war have just start.....
Well, STI will drop more tomorrow?
Buy Property is better than stocks. Volatility can kill.
phantom_opera
03-02-14, 14:39
Buy Property is better than stocks. Volatility can kill.
bond can have volatility too :D
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/02/20140202_Asia5_0.png
This is just the start of the whole game. Stock market in emerging market will crash down hard and their currency will drop heavily against USD. Hot money is moving back to US. Country that over-leverage will be in trouble.
Now we just have to see what is China reaction to this. As China banking/currency system is quite different compared to the western world, so we need to see what is their reaction.... The final stage of the war have just start.....
For USD to keep afloat a "state of bubble" must exist. If it is not domestically, then it must happen overseas. Demand has to be created for the USD. If the world come crashing down all at the same time, USD will become rubbish. There is always a bubble somewhere. However US domestic bubble is harder to blow. Its easier for EM.
If private banks r mainly the shareholders of federal reserve, then they might be suffering from near zero interest issue. :o
is it true that US Federal Reserve has shareholders and most probably the secretive shareholders are the private banks themselves??
"The 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, which were established by the Congress as the operating arms of the nation's central banking system, are organized similarly to private corporations--possibly leading to some confusion about "ownership." For example, the Reserve Banks issue shares of stock to member banks. However, owning Reserve Bank stock is quite different from owning stock in a private company. The Reserve Banks are not operated for profit, and ownership of a certain amount of stock is, by law, a condition of membership in the System. The stock may not be sold, traded, or pledged as security for a loan; dividends are, by law, 6 percent per year."
This is just the start of the whole game. Stock market in emerging market will crash down hard and their currency will drop heavily against USD. Hot money is moving back to US. Country that over-leverage will be in trouble.
Now we just have to see what is China reaction to this. As China banking/currency system is quite different compared to the western world, so we need to see what is their reaction.... The final stage of the war have just start.....
Isn't US market leading the fall this year? how do you know the funds go back to US?
The Fed in effect guaranteeing the creation of bubble in perpetuality. Some people still dreaming about crash. Crash happens very rarely. Its so rare that they usually attached a name for it. People who put a faith on crash is wasting their time.
...Stock market in emerging market will crash down hard and their currency will drop heavily against USD....
oh REALLY ? You are so confident, are you shorting ? Talk is easy you know...
I maintain my view : this is just aberration. I m already going in.
phantom_opera
03-02-14, 19:44
CAPL group of companies look yummy ;)
Those holding bonds will die pain pain in next few years! :rolleyes:
bond can have volatility too :D
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/02/20140202_Asia5_0.png
CAPL group of companies look yummy ;)
Ya.. I think so... STI already break the 3000 point resistance.... Wondering how low can it go this time...
Isn't US market leading the fall this year? how do you know the funds go back to US?
I don't know where is the fund going but it is likely going to US with the strong USD. Just a guess... hahaha
market will rebound strongly.....tapering will stop soon....interest will remain low.......
and the US equity will BOOM!!!
:2cents:;)
oh REALLY ? You are so confident, are you shorting ? Talk is easy you know...
I maintain my view : this is just aberration. I m already going in.
don't waste your time with STI....it will up and down slightly for the next few months until ppl lose patience then it will start to move higher till end of the year.
:2cents::o
Ya.. I think so... STI already break the 3000 point resistance.... Wondering how low can it go this time...
Allthepies
03-02-14, 20:33
CAPL group of companies look yummy ;)
her sister group of companies looks equally yummy :D:D
Allthepies
03-02-14, 20:34
If private banks r mainly the shareholders of federal reserve, then they might be suffering from near zero interest issue. :o
they get guarantee 6% dividend...:p
phantom_opera
03-02-14, 20:45
one of the most beautiful trends in 2013 is DJT, expect a bounce around 7k ??
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJT&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=m200%2Cm100&a=&c=111
haha 6% dividends from printed money. interesting to know. not too bad....either for the private banks as shareholders.
they get guarantee 6% dividend...:p
phantom_opera
04-02-14, 04:44
one of the most beautiful trends in 2013 is DJT, expect a bounce around 7k ??
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJT&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=m200%2Cm100&a=&c=111
ho ho ... almost there 7k
Dow Jones Transportation Averag (^DJT) -DJI
7,053.75 Down 235.43(3.23%)
phantom_opera
04-02-14, 08:17
hmm ...no panic selling this morning
STI Drops another 30 pts as at 930am. Is it on a downward trend? :)
hmm ...no panic selling this morning
After dropping so much Dow should be positive tonight. But i won't buy.
Wunderkind
04-02-14, 11:48
The US market is at an overbought level. There is a risk of a correction. Unless the US economy is firmly on its feet ( 3.2% growth in Q4 2013 is an initial sign ) and unemployment level drops to below 6.5%, the current valuation of stocks is on the high side. The FED has made the decision to taper the QE this year. At some point, the market can only push higher by real economic growth , no more by artificial liquidity injection.
The biggest impact of the QE tapering is on the emerging markets especially the "fragile five" ( Brazil, Indonesia, India, Turkey, South Africa ) economies. Notwithstanding, China is slowing down on GDP growth which will impact emerging countries to China on commodity and resource exports.
If a financial crisis happens in the emerging markets, will the contagion be spread to the rest of the developing economies including Singapore ? How connected are we to the emerging markets ? Will we have a replica of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis ? What is our government doing today to ensure that we do not get impacted by the risk of the emerging markets' collapse?
What is our strategy as investors ? It depends on your risk appetite. For once, the markets have turned increasingly volatile. If you are risk averse, the advice is to sell / cut loss and watch at the sidelines. If you are willing to take risks, watch for the opportunities to emerge in the emerging markets. Mark Mobius opined the recent slaughter of the emerging markets is overdone and may present good opportunities for long term investment.
The "horse", in this year is wild one , if I may say. So, whatever you do, do not go behind the horse ,that is merely follow the herd blindly or you will be kicked hard. Study the horse, run alongside with it, and only when you are strong enough can you ride on the horse.
hey hey just drop a bit, "crisis" already ? ;) stock market volatility is normal. it's supposed to be like that.
so much more exciting now, STI actually moves :D
Without significant up and down, how to invest and make money?
Some more some people think they can get in and out of the market correctly most of the time? :beats-me-man:
hey hey just drop a bit, "crisis" already ? ;) stock market volatility is normal. it's supposed to be like that.
so much more exciting now, STI actually moves :D
phantom_opera
04-02-14, 13:32
Make no mistake, US economic recovery is already confirmed
The more EMs (the so called Fragile Five) are in chaos, the more US will recover .. didn't u see that post 1997 Asian crisis, lots of money flow back from Asia to contribute to the then NASDAQ bubble? Of course this time we still do not see any bubble yet in the US
Make no mistake, US economic recovery is already confirmed
The more EMs (the so called Fragile Five) are in chaos, the more US will recover .. didn't u see that post 1997 Asian crisis, lots of money flow back from Asia to contribute to the then NASDAQ bubble? Of course this time we still do not see any bubble yet in the US
Serious, care to share which indicator you use to confirmed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksyTBD-wL4A
貨幣戰爭
phantom_opera
04-02-14, 13:56
Serious, care to share which indicator you use to confirmed.
For technical, just look at DJT, for fundamental, the following is enough:
10y ago, 1USD was 8RMB, now 1USD is 6RMB
10y ago, 1USD was 1.7SGD, now 1USD is 1.25SGD
phantom_opera
04-02-14, 14:53
Can BRICs, Japan, US, Europe all prosper at the same time post Lehman??
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/02/20140203_NKY4_0.png
iShares MSCI Brazil (EWZ)
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=EWZ&t=5y&q=&l=&z=l&a=v&p=s&lang=en-SG®ion=SG
What I see is a currency war, like Russia, Japan, Vietnam, EU....... but no recovery in US.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Jack Lew: US could default on debt by 'end of month'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-26021640
http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/us_debt/us_debt.html
http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/us_debt/images/usd-122_trillion_dollars-122,000,000,000,000_USD.jpg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKpVlDSIz9o
phantom_opera
04-02-14, 16:38
US debt problem is overblown lah ... it is more a political problem than a real serious financial issue
Anyway today added position on crappyland group of companies
Agree, where to find all the paper to print.
Does Stock prices has a correlation with COE bid price? Will it go up or down today?:D
In World's Best-Run Economy, House Prices Keep Falling -- Because That's What House Prices Are Supposed To Do
http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfingleton/2014/02/02/in-worlds-best-run-economy-home-prices-just-keep-falling-because-thats-what-home-prices-are-supposed-to-do/
Wunderkind
06-02-14, 12:00
Well articulated.
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/correction-stocks-185011458.html
phantom_opera
06-02-14, 16:47
In World's Best-Run Economy, House Prices Keep Falling -- Because That's What House Prices Are Supposed To Do
http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfingleton/2014/02/02/in-worlds-best-run-economy-home-prices-just-keep-falling-because-thats-what-home-prices-are-supposed-to-do/
In Singapore, garmen land must be sold at good (not just fair) market price and they do not even count towards budget surplus ... lands are the only natural resources :banghead:
In Singapore, garmen land must be sold at good (not just fair) market price and they do not even count towards budget surplus ... lands are the only natural resources :banghead:
Singapore is only less than 50 yrs old.
hey "correction" so fast finished already ? So disappointing :)
Wunderkind
08-02-14, 09:38
Correction or not, the markets have certainly turned volatile over the past few weeks.
So, the strategy is whether you want to weather the volatility with heightened risks or reduce your exposure. It depends on your risk profile.
The bias is leaning more towards a downtrend than an uptrend because there are not many catalysts to push the market higher. With high frequency trading and many short term traders in the market given the uncertainties, the markets are more likely than not to remain volatile in the coming months.
The way to make money is to be really quick in this highly volatile market. if you are faint-hearted and prefer to sleep well at night, the alternative is to take less risks and wait for the next big opportunity.
It has to be equity then. :)
Correction or not, the markets have certainly turned volatile over the past few weeks.
So, the strategy is whether you want to weather the volatility with heightened risks or reduce your exposure. It depends on your risk profile.
The bias is leaning more towards a downtrend than an uptrend because there are not many catalysts to push the market higher. With high frequency trading and many short term traders in the market given the uncertainties, the markets are more likely than not to remain volatile in the coming months.
The way to make money is to be really quick in this highly volatile market. if you are faint-hearted and prefer to sleep well at night, the alternative is to take less risks and wait for the next big opportunity.
Wunderkind
08-02-14, 11:17
It has to be equity then. :)
Well, for me, it may be better to have diversification. :) All in one basket heightens your risks especially when the market is volatile.
Cash will be king in an environment of volatility ... use it to play to the market trends. US Dollar will strengthen in the next one to two years. Dividends are still better than our current interest rates in some of the blue chip stocks in developed markets.
Property market may drop/crash in one year's time if nothing is done to review the CMs. May be good to have some cash on hand for the opportunity.
It is time to put cash to good use.
Well, for me, it may be better to have diversification. :) All in one basket heightens your risks especially when the market is volatile.
Cash will be king in an environment of volatility ... use it to play to the market trends. US Dollar will strengthen in the next one to two years. Dividends are still better than our current interest rates in some of the blue chip stocks in developed markets.
Property market may drop/crash in one year's time if nothing is done to review the CMs. May be good to have some cash on hand for the opportunity.
phantom_opera
08-02-14, 14:15
just stay nimble, total return of 9pc won't be easy going forward
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