Kuwait fund pulls out of bulk purchase of high-end homes

[mr funny]

March 11, 2008

Kuwait fund pulls out of bulk purchase of high-end homes

It allows options for 97 condo units at Goodwood Residence to lapse

By Joyce Teo, Property Correspondent

http://www.straitstimes.com/STI/STIMEDIA/image/20080310/ST_IMAGES_MNYGOODWOOD.jpg
SURPRISE EXIT: Kuwait Finance House could end up paying multimillion dollars in penalties to developer GuocoLand for letting its options to buy Goodwood Residence units lapse. Its move raises concerns that the property sector may be heading for a downturn. -- PHOTO: GUOCOLAND

A KUWAIT bank fund that agreed in December to buy 97 units at posh Goodwood Residence for $818.4 million has let the purchase option lapse.

Kuwait Finance House has given no reason for the move, which could result in the firm having to pay developer GuocoLand multimillion-dollar penalties.

It could also be the first time a foreign institutional investor in Singapore has pulled out of such a deal, raising concerns that the property market, already hit by weaker sentiment, may be heading into a downturn.

'While the current market is cautiously optimistic, news of such a pullout might cause it to turn more cautious,' said Cushman and Wakefield managing director Donald Han.

GuocoLand did not provide a direct reason for the lapse but said in a statement yesterday that the private residential market in Singapore appears cautious.

The developer also said it is in talks with Kuwait Finance House, an Islamic investment bank, with 'a view to a grant of fresh options for units in the development'.

The firm declined to comment further, citing ongoing talks. Kuwait Finance House also declined comment for the same reason.

Kuwait Finance House's huge deal was for 97 four-bedders ranging from 2,500 sq ft to 3,900 sq ft at the former Casa Rosita site in Bukit Timah Road, near Newton Circus.

The condo has 210 freehold units on a large 24,845 sq m site fronting Goodwood Hill. The Kuwait fund's purchase would have been the single-largest purchase of residential units under construction in Singapore.

Kuwait Finance House had agreed to buy the units at a median price of $3,200 per sq ft (psf), which would have set price benchmarks for the area. Industry sources said the price was way too high, considering that bulk purchases typically come with a discount.

'If it were to have bought at an average of, say, $2,700 psf last December, it would still be a record for the Newton Circus area,' said an industry source who declined to be named.

'If it had held on for 15 to 20 years and leased the units for up to a 5 per cent yield, it may have been able to justify the deal. But if it had wanted to buy and sell, why didn't it bargain for a rock-bottom price as the property had not been launched?'

It is believed that Kuwait Finance House was keen on flipping the units as they were marketed in Dubai recently, but the sale campaign was unsuccessful.

Another industry source, who declined to be named, said: 'The pullout may be due to the terms of the deal. The buyer could have realised that it had bought at a higher-than-expected price, had problems flipping the units and wanted to cut its losses.

'It could also reflect the current market and the possibility that the property market may stagnate in the next two to three years.'

The stale market appeared to have led GuocoLand to put off the launch of Goodwood Residence, scheduled initially for the first quarter.

Many developers are following suit, delaying launches until keen interest returns to the sector, which is in the doldrums with buyers and sellers staying on the sidelines.

A GuocoLand spokesman said: 'We would be tapping selected overseas markets when we decide to launch Goodwood Residence at a later date.'

It added in its statement that the expiry of the options will not have any material financial effect on its net tangible assets per share or earnings per share for the financial year ending June 30.

[email protected]


Opting out

# Kuwait Finance House's $818.4 million deal was for 97 four-bedders ranging from 2,500 sq ft to 3,900 sq ft at the former Casa Rosita site in Bukit Timah Road, near Newton Circus.

# It had agreed to buy the units at a median price of $3,200 psf, which would have set price benchmarks for the area. Sources say the price was too high, considering that bulk purchases typically come with discounts.

# It is believed that Kuwait Finance House was keen on flipping the units as they were marketed in Dubai recently, but the sale campaign was unsuccessful.

[Unregistered]

March 11, 2008

Kuwait fund pulls out of bulk purchase of high-end homes

It allows options for 97 condo units at Goodwood Residence to lapse

By Joyce Teo, Property Correspondent

http://www.straitstimes.com/STI/STIMEDIA/image/20080310/ST_IMAGES_MNYGOODWOOD.jpg
SURPRISE EXIT: Kuwait Finance House could end up paying multimillion dollars in penalties to developer GuocoLand for letting its options to buy Goodwood Residence units lapse. Its move raises concerns that the property sector may be heading for a downturn. -- PHOTO: GUOCOLAND

A KUWAIT bank fund that agreed in December to buy 97 units at posh Goodwood Residence for $818.4 million has let the purchase option lapse.

Kuwait Finance House has given no reason for the move, which could result in the firm having to pay developer GuocoLand multimillion-dollar penalties.

It could also be the first time a foreign institutional investor in Singapore has pulled out of such a deal, raising concerns that the property market, already hit by weaker sentiment, may be heading into a downturn.

'While the current market is cautiously optimistic, news of such a pullout might cause it to turn more cautious,' said Cushman and Wakefield managing director Donald Han.

GuocoLand did not provide a direct reason for the lapse but said in a statement yesterday that the private residential market in Singapore appears cautious.

The developer also said it is in talks with Kuwait Finance House, an Islamic investment bank, with 'a view to a grant of fresh options for units in the development'.

The firm declined to comment further, citing ongoing talks. Kuwait Finance House also declined comment for the same reason.

Kuwait Finance House's huge deal was for 97 four-bedders ranging from 2,500 sq ft to 3,900 sq ft at the former Casa Rosita site in Bukit Timah Road, near Newton Circus.

The condo has 210 freehold units on a large 24,845 sq m site fronting Goodwood Hill. The Kuwait fund's purchase would have been the single-largest purchase of residential units under construction in Singapore.

Kuwait Finance House had agreed to buy the units at a median price of $3,200 per sq ft (psf), which would have set price benchmarks for the area. Industry sources said the price was way too high, considering that bulk purchases typically come with a discount.

'If it were to have bought at an average of, say, $2,700 psf last December, it would still be a record for the Newton Circus area,' said an industry source who declined to be named.

'If it had held on for 15 to 20 years and leased the units for up to a 5 per cent yield, it may have been able to justify the deal. But if it had wanted to buy and sell, why didn't it bargain for a rock-bottom price as the property had not been launched?'

It is believed that Kuwait Finance House was keen on flipping the units as they were marketed in Dubai recently, but the sale campaign was unsuccessful.

Another industry source, who declined to be named, said: 'The pullout may be due to the terms of the deal. The buyer could have realised that it had bought at a higher-than-expected price, had problems flipping the units and wanted to cut its losses.

'It could also reflect the current market and the possibility that the property market may stagnate in the next two to three years.'

The stale market appeared to have led GuocoLand to put off the launch of Goodwood Residence, scheduled initially for the first quarter.

Many developers are following suit, delaying launches until keen interest returns to the sector, which is in the doldrums with buyers and sellers staying on the sidelines.

A GuocoLand spokesman said: 'We would be tapping selected overseas markets when we decide to launch Goodwood Residence at a later date.'

It added in its statement that the expiry of the options will not have any material financial effect on its net tangible assets per share or earnings per share for the financial year ending June 30.

[email protected]


Opting out

# Kuwait Finance House's $818.4 million deal was for 97 four-bedders ranging from 2,500 sq ft to 3,900 sq ft at the former Casa Rosita site in Bukit Timah Road, near Newton Circus.

# It had agreed to buy the units at a median price of $3,200 psf, which would have set price benchmarks for the area. Sources say the price was too high, considering that bulk purchases typically come with discounts.

# It is believed that Kuwait Finance House was keen on flipping the units as they were marketed in Dubai recently, but the sale campaign was unsuccessful.


At last someone started the ball rolling.....more to come and u will see the prices start rolling down.....

[Unregistered]

At last someone started the ball rolling.....more to come and u will see the prices start rolling down.....

how much % drop --> 20 % ?

[Unregistered]

At last someone started the ball rolling.....more to come and u will see the prices start rolling down.....
Yes I see it plunging down not rolling.

[Unregistered]

Told you that high end is more risky than mass market already. Foreigners can hold mah, but will they?

[Unregistered]

Told you that high end is more risky than mass market already. Foreigners can hold mah, but will they?

sooner or later, mass market also kana one...

[Unregistered]

sooner or later, mass market also kana one...
Mass market speculators cannot hold for long....many HDB upgraders...kana one soon.

[Unregistered]

Oh, where are are all the bull run predictors? They kept on saying "time will tell" and that "market forces will decide". So quiet now ...

[ht]

Mass market speculators cannot hold for long....many HDB upgraders...kana one soon.

HDB upgraders buy to stay la, that's why call upgrader mah, dun think they qualify as speculators.

[Unregistered]

HDB upgraders buy to stay la, that's why call upgrader mah, dun think they qualify as speculators.

hmm i hv committed one percent for buying ..now thinking ..its going to be wasted after this news.
better to wait than buy?

[Unregistered]

hmm i hv committed one percent for buying ..now thinking ..its going to be wasted after this news.
better to wait than buy?Don,t bull shit .........Lah!I don't think you can affort to commit the one percent deposit.If you can afford to buy private Apt than please continue to stay in HDB.

[Unregistered]

hmm i hv committed one percent for buying ..now thinking ..its going to be wasted after this news.
better to wait than buy?

don't worry you can save 10-15% on current purchase price

10%
-
1%
----
9%

15%
-
1%
----
14%

[Unregistered]

don't worry you can save 9-14% on current purchase price .

[Unregistered]

hmm i hv also committed one percent for buying an entire block at Hallucinations @ Grandeur ..now thinking ..its going to be wasted after this news.

better to wait than buy?

[Unregistered]

Yes I see it plunging down not rolling.


Don't jump the gun -- read in-between the lines.

The Kuwait bank fund was not a bona fide buyer in the first place -- as the papers clarified, they are merely speculators trying to flip the properties in their own country, but failed.

Given such a huge exposure, it only makes sense to run for dear life when they cannot flip over the sale and cut loss. It is the same if you buy a huge chunk of shares at a high price but the market refuses to move higher, you must cut loss.

In the second place, they were stupid to buy at moon's price, i.e. 30% above market price thinking their own guys in Kuwait, with all that oil money, would take the bite.

They deserve to lose money since they were speculating and inflating our market.

[Unregistered]

Don,t bull shit .........Lah!I don't think you can affort to commit the one percent deposit.If you can afford to buy private Apt than please continue to stay in HDB.

Shakespeare's famous quotation "some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon them."

Here in this forum we see "Some are born poor, some achieve poorness and some have poorness thrust upon them."

They've got nothing better to do than hoping that the property market collapses, or hallucinating about placing 1% deposits.

[Unregistered]

Don't jump the gun -- read in-between the lines.

The Kuwait bank fund was not a bona fide buyer in the first place -- as the papers clarified, they are merely speculators trying to flip the properties in their own country, but failed.

Given such a huge exposure, it only makes sense to run for dear life when they cannot flip over the sale and cut loss. It is the same if you buy a huge chunk of shares at a high price but the market refuses to move higher, you must cut loss.

In the second place, they were stupid to buy at moon's price, i.e. 30% above market price thinking their own guys in Kuwait, with all that oil money, would take the bite.

They deserve to lose money since they were speculating and inflating our market.

They are the first to bite the bullet. There will be more on their way.

[Unregistered]

Three months is a long time to hold an option. So developer must have known that buyers were going to flip. Anyway talks are still going on for fresh options. Why?

This shows that oil money is not easy to come by after all. Just compare this against the mood when news of the purchase was disclosed in Dec, and everyone thought that prices were holding up well.

[Unregistered]

Don't jump the gun -- read in-between the lines.

The Kuwait bank fund was not a bona fide buyer in the first place -- as the papers clarified, they are merely speculators trying to flip the properties in their own country, but failed.

Given such a huge exposure, it only makes sense to run for dear life when they cannot flip over the sale and cut loss. It is the same if you buy a huge chunk of shares at a high price but the market refuses to move higher, you must cut loss.

In the second place, they were stupid to buy at moon's price, i.e. 30% above market price thinking their own guys in Kuwait, with all that oil money, would take the bite.

They deserve to lose money since they were speculating and inflating our market.

They are the first to bite the bullet. There will be more on their way.
Only you guys bother to debate on that Malaysian company, Kuwait .... Sdn Bhd. Is an asset-poor company trying to flip properties worth our time debating? With the hacker waiting to hack our posts again, I wouldn't even care.

[Unregistered]

It seems like the high end market is quite volatile, given the fact that not many locals can afford such luxury houses. I think the worst has yet to come.

[Unregistered]

It seems like the high end market is quite volatile, given the fact that not many locals can afford such luxury houses. I think the worst has yet to come.
Since you say not many locals can afford, so why should you or the other locals concern about this high end market?

[Unregistered]

Since you say not many locals can afford, so why should you or the other locals concern about this high end market?

Please .. high end and mass market can be quite related. What happen at high end can flow to the mass market, you do not look things at only one perspective, don't you? If i do not drive doesnt mean i am not concern about oil prices, you get what i mean. Can you don't be so narrow-minded?

[Unregistered]

Please .. high end and mass market can be quite related. What happen at high end can flow to the mass market, you do not look things at only one perspective, don't you? If i do not drive doesnt mean i am not concern about oil prices, you get what i mean. Can you don't be so narrow-minded?

Can you don't give the wrong analogy?

I think you are trying to say this:
"If I drive Toyota and don't drive BMW doesn't mean I am not concern about BMW recalls."

As long as your Toyota is reliable, why worry about BMW recalls?

[Unregistered]

Can you don't give the wrong analogy?

I think you are trying to say this:
"If I drive Toyota and don't drive BMW doesn't mean I am not concern about BMW recalls."

As long as your Toyota is reliable, why worry about BMW recalls?

Your analogy also wrong.

What he meant was this:

"Even though I take public transport, I am concerned about BMW recalls. Because if BMW need to be recalled, that means their owners cannot drive to work and must take public transport, just like me. woohahahaha!!!"

[Unregistered]

I wonder how many other foreign buyers had been intending to flip. Maybe we will see a few more options lapsing.

[Unregistered]

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSHKG11463220080310?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

Opportunistic investors recoil from Asia property
By Dominic Whiting, Asia property correspondent

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Opportunistic investors are pulling back from Asian property because they see more scope for picking up distressed assets in the United States and Europe, and loans are harder to get in Japan, one of their favorite markets.

Hedge funds have stopped dabbling in property in the region, fund managers say. And although private equity players will continue to develop property in India and China, they are more likely to buy buildings on the cheap in the West than in Asia.

"Six months ago it was quite straight forward, we didn't have to answer questions about why to invest in Asia," Guy Cawthra, Asia fund strategist at Morley Fund Managers, told a recent conference in Hong Kong.

"Now investors say 'we might not want to invest in Asia, we want to invest in Europe, the UK and the U.S.'."

In the wake of the 1997-98 economic crisis, Asia, in particular Japan and South Korea, drew a raft of investment from funds run by the likes of Morgan Stanley (MS.N: Quote, Profile, Research), General Electric (GE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and private equity firms such as Carlyle Group CYL.UL.

Many made fat profits on a revival by Asian property markets, which are now mostly strong because of a shortage of new supply and still buoyant economies.

Researchers at consultants Jones Lang LaSalle forecast Tokyo office prices will steady this year after a 28 percent jump in 2007, while Seoul, Hong Kong and Singapore and Shanghai are still on the up.

Better opportunities now lie elsewhere for investors who think they can spot a market trough and ride a recovery.

Because of tight credit and a worsening economy, U.S. commercial real estate values could fall by 20 percent in the next five years from their 2007 peak, JPMorgan analysts forecast, causing losses of about $120 billion, including on commercial mortgage-backed securities.

London office values have dropped 12 percent from a peak in the middle of last year, and they will be pressured further by forecasts of a 10 percent decline in rental values through 2009.

"I think a lot of investors will return to home markets," said Bart Coenraads, head of real estate at Fortis Investments. "Some will try to buy distressed core and refinance it. They could make good returns."

COLD FEET

Last year, total direct investment in the Asia-Pacific region jumped 27 percent to $121 billion -- a sixth of the global total -- with about half invested in Japan, which has been popular for its rock-bottom interest rates.

However, Japanese banks are getting cold feet on property, analysts say, only giving loans worth 60-70 percent of a buildings value, compared to 80-90 percent a couple of years ago.

Lower debt gearing is likely to crimp returns for equity investors. But having spent years setting up teams, private equity funds are unlikely to withdraw completely from Asia, said Tim Bellman, global head of strategy for ING Real Estate.

Many, such as Morgan Stanley Real Estate Funds, no longer see themselves as "opportunistic", and are in Asia for the long haul.

"Funds have been raised and platforms are set up, and they don't want to unwind them overnight," Bellman said. "But at the margin, opportunistic investors who looked at Asia are finding those opportunities back home."

Morgan Stanley is building housing in China and taking stakes in Indian developers in a high-risk, high-return strategy. But the U.S. investment bank also bought the Tokyo headquarters of Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) last month, indicating it is still interested in "core" assets that are low risk but give modest returns.

Meanwhile, Carlyle is shunning a Tokyo office market it believes is too expensive and is buying shopping malls and homes for the elderly.

But in a sign that deals are getting tougher in Japan, Keith Greengrove, a managing director at Lehman Brothers, said his efforts to buy a collection of offices in Tokyo were scuppered in February by arduous loan conditions.

"There's no property finance available in Japan today, no market for primary or secondary paper," Greengrove told the Hong Kong conference.

"We tried to buy a big class B portfolio, with good tenants and a good sponsor, but there was only one potential lender," he said. "We're going to wait for the debt markets to shape up."

[Unregistered]

I wonder how many other foreign buyers had been intending to flip. Maybe we will see a few more options lapsing.
YES SPECULATORS HAVE STARTED TO FLEE IN NUMBERS. LOCAL SPECULATORS CANT FLEE BCOZ NO BUYERS. OHHHHH SO MUCH BLOOD COMING YOUR WAY WHEN THEY WOULD BE TRAMPLED IN THE RUSH FOR THE EXITS. WOOOOHAHAHAHAHA

[Unregistered]

I wonder how many other foreign buyers had been intending to flip. Maybe we will see a few more options lapsing.


YES SPECULATORS HAVE STARTED TO FLEE IN NUMBERS. LOCAL SPECULATORS CANT FLEE BCOZ NO BUYERS. OHHHHH SO MUCH BLOOD COMING YOUR WAY WHEN THEY WOULD BE TRAMPLED IN THE RUSH FOR THE EXITS. WOOOOHAHAHAHAHA

Foreigners are rushing for the entrance rather than the exit (see today's Business Times article below).

When foreigners move into the prime and fringe districts, then those sour grapes in Sengkang will have to move to Tuas, and those at Tuas will move to Horsburgh Lighthouse.

And if the International Court of Justice rules that Horsburgh Lighthouse belongs to Malaysia, then it will be renamed Pulau Batu Puteh and those sour grapes will turn into Malaysian citizens and their properties become Malaysian property and valued in Ringgits.

WOOO

HA

Ha

ha

ha


Business Times - 12 Mar 2008


Foreigners snap up homes as rents start to bite

Their purchases could account for half of 2007 transactions on the secondary market

By ARTHUR SIM

(SINGAPORE) A record number of foreigners here have opted to purchase homes instead of renting them at ever-climbing rates.

According to an analysis of transactions of private residential properties by DTZ Debenham Tie Leung, foreigners bought 6,536 non-landed homes from the secondary market in 2007 - the largest number since 1995.

They could account for more than 50 per cent of the secondary market transactions last year.

That is because while more than 20,000 non-landed homes were sold on the secondary market last year, this number includes the units from more than 100 collective sales. DTZ's analysis does not include en bloc units - though earlier reports had put this figure at around 6,000 for the first half of 2007 alone.

Purchases by foreigners on the secondary market represent a 105 per cent increase in volume compared to 2006.

DTZ research senior director Chua Chor Hoon said that while some buyers were investors, there were also those who 'are not on company budget and find it more worthwhile to buy rather than face escalating rentals, especially if they are going to be in Singapore for more than a couple of years'.

DTZ's figures for 2007 reveal that rents of prime apartments and condominiums increased 45 per cent year-on-year in 2007 to average $4.80 per square foot (psf). This was attributed to the influx of expatriates and a tight supply of prime apartments, as numerous prime developments were demolished or slated for redevelopment after being collectively sold.

The percentage of foreigners buying non-landed property from the primary market (developer sales) was lower at 25.4 per cent, or 2,314 transactions out of a total of 9,089, reinforcing the assertion that foreigners are more inclined to buy a home for immediate occupation.

Indonesians and Malaysians remain the biggest foreign buyers here, accounting for 23 and 17 per cent of all foreigners in 2007 respectively, but Indians (12 per cent), Britishers (8 per cent), Chinese (7 per cent) and Koreans (7 per cent) are also well represented.

While foreigners bought non-landed homes in record numbers last year, boosting demand in the process, their absence in the landed homes sector (because of restrictions imposed by the government) did not stop a record number of landed homes being sold in the secondary market.

DTZ's analysis reveals that of the total 5,211 landed homes sold in 2007, 4,823 were from the secondary market.

Apart from the bullish sentiment which 'spilled over' from the non-landed sector last year, the landed sector also saw demand rise as it was still considered comparatively good value.

DTZ's figures show that average capital values for non-landed freehold homes in the prime districts increased by 55 per cent year-on-year to $1,480 psf.

For freehold landed homes in the prime districts, average capital values of detached homes increased 31 per cent year- on-year, while average capital values of semi-detached and terrace homes rose 29 and 27 per cent respectively.

The situation was also exacerbated by the tight supply of new launches of landed homes in the year, estimated at around 650 units.

DTZ's Ms Chua also believes that with speculation less rampant in the landed housing sector - 'most buyers are owner-occupiers' - prices are expected to be more stable and could even prove 'more resilient' if the downturn in the global economy is protracted.

However, DTZ expects future supply of landed homes to be relatively low at just 3,100 units over the next few years, so this could push up demand and prices for both primary and secondary market landed homes.

Speculation, defined by the number of subsales, was rampant among developer sales of non-landed homes last year, hitting an all-time high of 4,631 transactions - a 312 per cent year-on-year increase over 2006.

Interestingly, while subsale transaction volume in 2007 was just 27 per cent higher than during the previous peak of 1996, the value of subsales was almost twice as high, hitting $7.9 billion.

The fourth quarter, however, marked a shift in sentiment in the property market. Only 3,947 non-landed homes were transacted in the quarter, of which just 846 were sold by developers, reflecting a 64 per cent quarter-on-quarter drop. This was one of the worst performing quarters in the last three years.


Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Unregistered]

Foreigners are rushing for the entrance rather than the exit (see today's Business Times article below).

When foreigners move into the prime and fringe districts, then those sour grapes in Sengkang will have to move to Tuas, and those at Tuas will move to Horsburgh Lighthouse.

And if the International Court of Justice rules that Horsburgh Lighthouse belongs to Malaysia, then it will be renamed Pulau Batu Puteh and those sour grapes will turn into Malaysian citizens and their properties become Malaysian property and valued in Ringgits.

WOOO

HA

Ha

ha

ha

You must be crazy. Foreigners can only buy very little properties at high price, few units at each of non-landed and the small corner of Pulau Blakang Mati. How to drive singaporeans to Malaysia?

[mr funny]

Published March 12, 2008

Guocoland dives on options lapse

Shares hit as Kuwaiti-linked fund pulls out of $815m property purchase

By LYNETTE KHOO


SHARES of Guocoland fell victim yesterday to news that a fund company managed by Kuwait Finance House (Malaysia) Berhad (KFHMB) did not exercise options to buy $814.8 million worth of apartments in Guocoland's upmarket project here.

Following analysts' downgrade, the stock dived as much as 19 cents or 5 per cent to an intra-day low of $3.64 before closing at $3.70, down 13 cents or 3.4 per cent. More than 420,000 shares changed hands.

But the reaction from property counters was mixed, with Ho Bee falling two cents to 95 cents and SC Global dipping four cents to $1.50. Keppel Land edged up five cents to $5.35 and CapitaLand gained 18 cents to $5.89.

The fund company managed by KFHMB had purchased options in December last year to buy 97 units at the premier freehold development Goodwood Residence. There are only 210 exclusive units on this 24,845-sq-m estate fronting the expansive Goodwood Hill. KFHMB is the Malaysian unit of Kuwait Finance House (KFH).

Guocoland said on Monday that although the options have lapsed, the parties are still in discussions, with a view to granting fresh options for units in the development.

It is not known why the fund did not exercise the options, but Guocoland said in its Monday announcement that 'the current private residential property market appears to be cautious in Singapore'. This could have prompted its decision to market Goodwood Residence units selectively at a later date.

But in the stock market yesterday, speculation was rife over reasons for the lapse. Some cited the cautious market sentiment while others cited over-pricing of the units. There was even talk of an unsuccessful marketing campaign for these units by KFH in Dubai. The median price of $3,200 per square feet that the KFHMB fund agreed was earlier seen by some as a possible benchmark pricing for the area.

DBS Vickers yesterday cut its rating on Guocoland to 'hold' from 'buy' and lowered its target price to $4.14 from $5.60 after revising downwards its average selling price estimates for Guocoland's high-end and mid-tier projects and ascribing a 15 per cent discount to Guocoland's revalued net asset value.

'We believe that the decision by KFHMB to allow these options to lapse is a sign of the weak sentiment in the physical property market currently, particularly in the high-end segment,' the brokerage said.

But Westcomb Financial Group said it believes that this lapse of options 'should not be taken as a signal that the Singapore private residential property market has fallen drastically.

'In fact, the buyer has overpaid their purchases in December 2007, maybe with the view that the market would continue its uptrend in 2008.'

[Unregistered]

Foreigners are rushing for the entrance rather than the exit (see today's Business Times article below).

When foreigners move into the prime and fringe districts, then those sour grapes in Sengkang will have to move to Tuas, and those at Tuas will move to Horsburgh Lighthouse.

And if the International Court of Justice rules that Horsburgh Lighthouse belongs to Malaysia, then it will be renamed Pulau Batu Puteh and those sour grapes will turn into Malaysian citizens and their properties become Malaysian property and valued in Ringgits.

WOOO

HA

Ha

ha

ha

You can continue to laugh at the sour grapes, Mr Green Eyes but time will tell who will have the last laugh.

[Unregistered]

You must be crazy. Foreigners can only buy very little properties at high price, few units at each of non-landed and the small corner of Pulau Blakang Mati. How to drive singaporeans to Malaysia?

Sometimes, a picture is worth a thousand words ...

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg//mnt/media/image/launched/2008-03-12/BT_IMAGES_RENTS12.jpg

[Unregistered]

1) Kuwait firm - more like trading and flipping with no real understanding of demand and supply... Would you buy from one of these "trading" firm in GAC countries ? I rather buy directly minus the middle-man.. Deal is doom to fail in the 1st case as basis is wrong
2) No creditability.. never heard of this firm
3) Would this single deal dictates the tone of the singapore market ?
With the 2x SWF of singapore going round US/Europe/Japan etc buying
up banks, buildings, business.... this deal is peanets compared to the size of singapore buying power !

[Unregistered]

1) Kuwait firm - more like trading and flipping with no real understanding of demand and supply... Would you buy from one of these "trading" firm in GAC countries ? I rather buy directly minus the middle-man.. Deal is doom to fail in the 1st case as basis is wrong
2) No creditability.. never heard of this firm
3) Would this single deal dictates the tone of the singapore market ?
With the 2x SWF of singapore going round US/Europe/Japan etc buying
up banks, buildings, business.... this deal is peanets compared to the size of singapore buying power !

All the ready cash for properties investment are idling right now and waiting to pick up bargains in US and Europe and that is upside for why Asian properties are being capped esp in light of sharp run-up in the last two years already.

[Unregistered]

All the ready cash for properties investment are idling right now and waiting to pick up bargains in US and Europe and that is upside for why Asian properties are being capped esp in light of sharp run-up in the last two years already.

That is good news for the world. Pls hurry and pick up bargains in US and Europe to help expedite the recovery process for US sub-prime. But, remember before your bargain assets value increase, here in Asia our assets hv once again skyrocketed to the next heaven.

[Unregistered]

That is good news for the world. Pls hurry and pick up bargains in US and Europe to help expedite the recovery process for US sub-prime. But, remember before your bargain assets value increase, here in Asia our assets hv once again skyrocketed to the next heaven.

It is way too early to buy cheap properties in US and Europe. What is happening now is about selling properties in markets to cash out gains to stock pile cash to prepare for the kill. If you have no holding power, be careful to be killed in the stampede. Don't be greedy, make your move to cash in any gain now

[Unregistered]

You can continue to laugh at the sour grapes, Mr Green Eyes but time will tell who will have the last laugh.

It's not that I like to laugh at people. But these sour grapes are very vicious people.

I mean property investors also hope to make some money, who doesn't hope to make money? But these sour grapes keep cursing the market to collapse. Don't you think they are vicious?

It's like if punters queue up to buy 4D or TOTO and they go around cursing the punters to lose money, see what will happen to them.

Anyway I have already en blocked one of my two properties and already collected my money, which is enough to buy 10 Sengkang HDB flats. I'm now left with one more which I acquired a few years back at a very low price.

So I don't see what is this "last laugh" all about, unless it's about the market collapsing so that people like me cannot make some more profits. But then isn't that a "sad last laugh"?

Don't the sour grapes have anything better to look forward to for their "last laugh"? Like getting a pay increment or a promotion and upgrade to Queenstown?

[Unregistered]

It's not that I like to laugh at people. But these sour grapes are very vicious people.

I mean property investors also hope to make some money, who doesn't hope to make money? But these sour grapes keep cursing the market to collapse. Don't you think they are vicious?

It's like if punters queue up to buy 4D or TOTO and they go around cursing the punters to lose money, see what will happen to them.

Anyway I have already en blocked one of my two properties and already collected my money, which is enough to buy 10 Sengkang HDB flats. I'm now left with one more which I acquired a few years back at a very low price.

So I don't see what is this "last laugh" all about, unless it's about the market collapsing so that people like me cannot make some more profits. But then isn't that a "sad last laugh"?

Don't the sour grapes have anything better to look forward to for their "last laugh"? Like getting a pay increment or a promotion and upgrade to Queenstown?


did not come to this forum for a while.
I thought it attacked by sour grape.
so who is panic? desperate? worry? why do such act? there is lot of good information & analysis, all gone.
what last laugh? who cannot laugh now? rental market is still so hot, rental is so high & demand so strong.
For sour grape, no money, work harder. Got money, keep in bank, see your value going down day by day, there is good value in blue chip stock that offer >5% dividend, still property is the best to hedge for inflation.
With housing loan rate down, rental up, lock in for 2 years, wait for IR ready, the return is easily 25x=2500% higher than interest rate.
ha ha... famous time will tell, market decide.

[Unregistered]

All sour grapes standby, prices for property cannot hold that long anymore. Developers do not dare to launch major projects these coming months, with more TOP coming, there will be a correction if they are not genuine buyers. Shares are already coming low and it will be a matter of time that the property market will be affected. Look, observe and get ready to go in.

[Unregistered]

For prices to come, you will need 3 things to happen

1. Interest to go up - No, not happening. In fact the reverse is taking place
2. Massive exodus of expat and job losses - No, not happening
3. Rental rate to come down - No, not happening

The only guys show some sign of panic are the flippers, especially in the mid end of the market. The uber rich can hold, the mass market is well supported.

[Unregistered]

For prices to come, you will need 3 things to happen

1. Interest to go up - No, not happening. In fact the reverse is taking place
2. Massive exodus of expat and job losses - No, not happening
3. Rental rate to come down - No, not happening

The only guys show some sign of panic are the flippers, especially in the mid end of the market. The uber rich can hold, the mass market is well supported.
Only one thing needs to happen - no buyer. Doesn't matter what interest rates are.

[Unregistered]

Only one thing needs to happen - no buyer. Doesn't matter what interest rates are.


no buyer? don't sell, rent out at high rental.
Refinance loan rate at 0-2% for 1st 3 years, lock in rental for 2-3 years, rental yield at 5-6%. For HDB, yield can be >10% if lucky. When IR ready, market shot up.
For the 3 yrs, can have nett 3%-5% income, after that another 30-50% appreciation, why not?
Rental is easy now with tons of foreign talents coming onboard. If local need a place, eg enblocker, married couple.....rent lor.

[Unregistered]

no buyer? don't sell, rent out at high rental.
Refinance loan rate at 0-2% for 1st 3 years, lock in rental for 2-3 years, rental yield at 5-6%. For HDB, yield can be >10% if lucky. When IR ready, market shot up.
For the 3 yrs, can have nett 3%-5% income, after that another 30-50% appreciation, why not?
Rental is easy now with tons of foreign talents coming onboard. If local need a place, eg enblocker, married couple.....rent lor.

Good rental market with low interest rate environment for the next 12-24 months will keep prices intact. Singapore landlord (especially HDB flat and resale mass market condo owners) never have it so good.

[Unregistered]

Only one thing needs to happen - no buyer. Doesn't matter what interest rates are.

totally agree, basics of demand Vs supply....no demand, supply increases, prices sure drop...

[Unregistered]

totally agree, basics of demand Vs supply....no demand, supply increases, prices sure drop...


no buyer, plenty of renter.
price down, complain to gov lor.
price up can complain, price down must too.

[Unregistered]

Next month is beginning of Q2, let see next month we can see sign of recovery for US economy, then we will know where is the direction of Spore property.
We will see a fall in oil price starting next month with more refinery put into operation.


US economy to recover in second quarter: Treasury
Thu, Mar 13, 2008
AFP




PARIS, FRANCE - THE US economy should pick up in the second quarter of the year but currently faces a difficult period of financial market stress and high oil prices, the number two in the US Treasury said on Thursday.

'The economy is likely to improve in the second quarter,' US Deputy Treasury Secretary Robert Kimmitt told a press conference at the US embassy.

He added: 'There is no doubt we are facing significant headwinds in the US economy,' referring to the housing and credit market problems and high commodity and oil prices.


'We continue to believe that the long-term fundamentals of the US economy are strong.'

Mr Kimmitt spoke in Paris as global stock markets fell sharply due to further weakness of the dollar, fears about recession in the United States and news that a giant investment fund had defaulted on debt of nearly US$17 billion (S$23.6 billion). -- AFP

[Unregistered]

Good rental market with low interest rate environment for the next 12-24 months will keep prices intact. Singapore landlord (especially HDB flat and resale mass market condo owners) never have it so good.

The interest rate is getting ridiculously low.

Today I got a letter from my bank StanChart that the eSaver account interest rate is down to 0.78%

Just one year ago it used to be around 2.3%.

Then inflation is 6.6% ... and my interest rate is 0.78% so the money in my bank is depreciating at 5.82% per year.

What to do? Help!

[Unregistered]

Next month is beginning of Q2, let see next month we can see sign of recovery for US economy, then we will know where is the direction of Spore property.
We will see a fall in oil price starting next month with more refinery put into operation.


US economy to recover in second quarter: Treasury
Thu, Mar 13, 2008
AFP




PARIS, FRANCE - THE US economy should pick up in the second quarter of the year but currently faces a difficult period of financial market stress and high oil prices, the number two in the US Treasury said on Thursday.

'The economy is likely to improve in the second quarter,' US Deputy Treasury Secretary Robert Kimmitt told a press conference at the US embassy.

He added: 'There is no doubt we are facing significant headwinds in the US economy,' referring to the housing and credit market problems and high commodity and oil prices.


'We continue to believe that the long-term fundamentals of the US economy are strong.'

Mr Kimmitt spoke in Paris as global stock markets fell sharply due to further weakness of the dollar, fears about recession in the United States and news that a giant investment fund had defaulted on debt of nearly US$17 billion (S$23.6 billion). -- AFP
NO WAY US IS RECOVERING IN 2 YEARS. IT WILL GET WORSE PULLING DOWN ASIA WITH IT. DON'T BE MISLED. SELL AND STAY CLEAR.

[Unregistered]

NO WAY US IS RECOVERING IN 2 YEARS. IT WILL GET WORSE PULLING DOWN ASIA WITH IT. DON'T BE MISLED. SELL AND STAY CLEAR.

I sold stocks and staying clear . Now where to invest that money ?

[Unregistered]

I sold stocks and staying clear . Now where to invest that money ?

One needs to constantly stay invested in order to cope with the inflation. Investment naturally comes with risk but unfortunately, this is how the world goes. Putting the money in banks or fixed deposit is a dead duck.
In my opinion, buying shares seems the best option now with share prices trading on the low side. A lot of good counters are trading way below their NAV. Can consider picking some stocks to keep although you clear your portfolio already.

[Unregistered]

totally agree, basics of demand Vs supply....no demand, supply increases, prices sure drop...

Did you see prices coming down or you are just speculating ?
I doubt your statements because I have been asking around but no sellers are quoting lower.

[Unregistered]

NO WAY US IS RECOVERING IN 2 YEARS. IT WILL GET WORSE PULLING DOWN ASIA WITH IT. DON'T BE MISLED. SELL AND STAY CLEAR.

Please cite the authority which made the above pronouncement.

[Unregistered]

NO WAY US IS RECOVERING IN 2 YEARS. IT WILL GET WORSE PULLING DOWN ASIA WITH IT. DON'T BE MISLED. SELL AND STAY CLEAR.



don't be too sure, be open.
No need 2 yrs, 6 weeks later, you will totally different situation.
Don't shout, don't do anything, just watch patiently.
By then stock market surge up again, property will follow thru', US$ up, oil plunge, this is the rule of the game, when you feel the worst, sell everything at the bottom, all the money on sideline will pour in to push up everything.

[Unregistered]

Who cares about the Kuwait fund, we got GIC, Temasek and many local tycoons to buy these high end homes. Property market will rise forever.

[Unregistered]

So much talk about market going up.

The fact is - Nobody is buying.

[Unregistered]

So much talk about market going up.

The fact is - Nobody is buying.

If you check up the realink website www.nationproperty.sg, you will see that there are still plenty of people buying, and the price is still very firm.

You cannot just survey your friends and relatives and then conclude that "Nobody is buying".

[Unregistered]

So much talk about market going up.

The fact is - Nobody is buying.


then you should sell yours since you are perssimistic, act to your believe & mouth is.

[Unregistered]

So much talk about market going up.

The fact is - Nobody is buying.

haha nobody buying

and for sure u will not be buying forever

because haiz

you know wat i mean right...

[Unregistered]

Nobody IS buying - present tense, not future.

So few caveats on SISV, that IS a fact. And who knows what kind of buyers they are? Whether local or foreign? Investors or own stay?

The fact is the rush to buy has stopped. Not saying when it will restart.

[Unregistered]

Nobody IS buying - present tense, not future.

So few caveats on SISV, that IS a fact. And who knows what kind of buyers they are? Whether local or foreign? Investors or own stay?

The fact is the rush to buy has stopped. Not saying when it will restart.



In 3 months time, the whole situation will be different, Kuwait fund will be regretted by then.
The world is extremely interesting right now.
Momentum to rush into stock market has never being so great, let see.

[Unregistered]

In 3 months time, the whole situation will be different, Kuwait fund will be regretted by then.
The world is extremely interesting right now.
Momentum to rush into stock market has never being so great, let see.
Three months ago, people like you were saying the same thing.

Three months have come and gone. And the fact still remains:

Nobody IS buying.

[Unregistered]

Three months ago, people like you were saying the same thing.

Three months have come and gone. And the fact still remains:

Nobody IS buying.
Not only that nobody is buying. Fact is the everybody is running away.

[Unregistered]

Three months ago, people like you were saying the same thing.

Three months have come and gone. And the fact still remains:

Nobody IS buying.


I only heard 8 months ago, people said property will down 20%, but up 20% instead.
This kind of market hard to drop as rental yield so good, loan rate so low, inflation so high, what else to invest can be better than property to hedge against inflation.
Time will come for another round of big wave up again.

[Unregistered]

I only heard 8 months ago, people said property will down 20%, but up 20% instead.
This kind of market hard to drop as rental yield so good, loan rate so low, inflation so high, what else to invest can be better than property to hedge against inflation.
Time will come for another round of big wave up again.
You will soon discover that property was the worst hedge if you didnt sell yet.

[Unregistered]

I only heard 8 months ago, people said property will down 20%, but up 20% instead.
This kind of market hard to drop as rental yield so good, loan rate so low, inflation so high, what else to invest can be better than property to hedge against inflation.
Time will come for another round of big wave up again. Agree. Depend on what price level you buy.

[Unregistered]

You will soon discover that property was the worst hedge if you didnt sell yet.

no chance, not by a long mile for Singapore.

Replacement construction cost for mass condo given current inflation rate for steel and other construction material will continue to go up another 10-15% in the coming year. In other words, construction cost without factoring land cost alone could be pushing $400psf.

[Unregistered]

no chance, not by a long mile for Singapore.

Replacement construction cost for mass condo given current inflation rate for steel and other construction material will continue to go up another 10-15% in the coming year. In other words, construction cost without factoring land cost alone could be pushing $400psf.

My brother who works in the property industry told me that construction cost has risen to around $450 psf.

This is primarily due to the contnuous increase in steel price and labour costs, plus one off cement price hike due to Indonesia's sand ban.

China's voracious appetite for raw materials and minerals caused asset inflation throughout the world and a relentless rise in the Australian dollar due to its huge mineral resources.

At the same time, our construction of the two Integrated Resorts and MRT lines sucked away a lot of construction resources. Nowdays contractors are very busy and even crane operators are earning $8000 per month with overtime.

Can you imagine just the construction cost alone today is equal to the price of entire mass market condo a few years' back. That's not including land costs and developers' margins.

That's why developers are now being squeezed and their share price has fallen a lot.

But if you are holding the end product, i.e. a completed condo unit, then that means you are hedged against further raw material cost inflation.

And if the developers hold back or cancel launches, that means the supply will be even less.

Add to that the 80,000 new citizens and PRs coming in every year, I forsee a potentially explosive situation in the rental market.

The property market has been holding back recently due to the sub-prime issue, like an arrow on bow with a stretched string. Once the sub-prime blows over, the price is going to shoot through the sky.

[Unregistered]

My brother who works in the property industry told me that construction cost has risen to around $450 psf.

This is primarily due to the contnuous increase in steel price and labour costs, plus one off cement price hike due to Indonesia's sand ban.

China's voracious appetite for raw materials and minerals caused asset inflation throughout the world and a relentless rise in the Australian dollar due to its huge mineral resources.

At the same time, our construction of the two Integrated Resorts and MRT lines sucked away a lot of construction resources. Nowdays contractors are very busy and even crane operators are earning $8000 per month with overtime.

Can you imagine just the construction cost alone today is equal to the price of entire mass market condo a few years' back. That's not including land costs and developers' margins.

That's why developers are now being squeezed and their share price has fallen a lot.

But if you are holding the end product, i.e. a completed condo unit, then that means you are hedged against further raw material cost inflation.

And if the developers hold back or cancel launches, that means the supply will be even less.

Add to that the 80,000 new citizens and PRs coming in every year, I forsee a potentially explosive situation in the rental market.

The property market has been holding back recently due to the sub-prime issue, like an arrow on bow with a stretched string. Once the sub-prime blows over, the price is going to shoot through the sky.
Recession would bring a slump in prices. No demand would add to the slump. Credit crunch would further bring down the exhorbitant prices by about 40%. Prices would come down for sure.

[Unregistered]

Recession would bring a slump in prices. No demand would add to the slump. Credit crunch would further bring down the exhorbitant prices by about 40%. Prices would come down for sure.

then you better sell your HDB now

or condo if you ever have the money to own one!!!

hahahah

[Unregistered]

then you better sell your HDB now

or condo if you ever have the money to own one!!!

hahahah

If I guess correctly, he probably doesn't even own an HDB.

Most likely some fresh grad with a few years' working experience earning $3 k to $5 k a month, still staying with parents.

[Unregistered]

But if you are holding the end product, i.e. a completed condo unit, then that means you are hedged against further raw material cost inflation.

But if you are not holding the end product, you should not be buying a hot potato because you will be paying the inflated construction costs and also someone's profit.

So the moral is: If you own something, hold on. If you don't own something, don't buy a hot potato.

[Unregistered]

Add to that the 80,000 new citizens and PRs coming in every year, I forsee a potentially explosive situation in the rental market.


How many of the 80,000 newcomers can afford $5,000 rent per month?

[Unregistered]

My brother who works in the property industry told me that construction cost has risen to around $450 psf.

This is primarily due to the contnuous increase in steel price and labour costs, plus one off cement price hike due to Indonesia's sand ban.

China's voracious appetite for raw materials and minerals caused asset inflation throughout the world and a relentless rise in the Australian dollar due to its huge mineral resources.

At the same time, our construction of the two Integrated Resorts and MRT lines sucked away a lot of construction resources. Nowdays contractors are very busy and even crane operators are earning $8000 per month with overtime.

Can you imagine just the construction cost alone today is equal to the price of entire mass market condo a few years' back. That's not including land costs and developers' margins.

That's why developers are now being squeezed and their share price has fallen a lot.

But if you are holding the end product, i.e. a completed condo unit, then that means you are hedged against further raw material cost inflation.

And if the developers hold back or cancel launches, that means the supply will be even less.

Add to that the 80,000 new citizens and PRs coming in every year, I forsee a potentially explosive situation in the rental market.

The property market has been holding back recently due to the sub-prime issue, like an arrow on bow with a stretched string. Once the sub-prime blows over, the price is going to shoot through the sky.

You are probably a house agent trying to spread rumour on the construction cost getting high and the influx of migrants in the coming months. I doubt readers in this forum will believe you.
US sub-prime problem is now spiraling like mad. Credit card default will show up very soon. With inflation higher all over the world, do you still believe property market will be better? There will be more borderline private home owner giving up the mortgage to switch to cheaper housing. Your bow and arrow will all be broken by then.

[Unregistered]

You are probably a house agent trying to spread rumour on the construction cost getting high and the influx of migrants in the coming months. I doubt readers in this forum will believe you.
US sub-prime problem is now spiraling like mad. Credit card default will show up very soon. With inflation higher all over the world, do you still believe property market will be better? There will be more borderline private home owner giving up the mortgage to switch to cheaper housing. Your bow and arrow will all be broken by then.

Why not? I believe him with all of my heart. My family, uncle, aunt, neighbour, buddies, all agree with him.

[Unregistered]

But if you are not holding the end product, you should not be buying a hot potato because you will be paying the inflated construction costs and also someone's profit.

So the moral is: If you own something, hold on. If you don't own something, don't buy a hot potato.

Hot potato? ha ha ha .......

You should better check out the headline in "Business Times" today. It reported that HK had surged by more than 25% for the last 3 months. This is due to the panic buyers who saw by the high inflation coupled with the constant upward rental pressure. Ppl rushed in to buy their own home to hedge against the inflation.

I believe the situation mirror very closely here in Singapore. Ppl should not be distracted too much by the credit crunch in US and missed the big picture. Singapore ppty are going to surge up by at least 30% very soon.

[Unregistered]

Hot potato? ha ha ha .......

You should better check out the headline in "Business Times" today. It reported that HK had surged by more than 25% for the last 3 months. This is due to the panic buyers who saw by the high inflation coupled with the constant upward rental pressure. Ppl rushed in to buy their own home to hedge against the inflation.

I believe the situation mirror very closely here in Singapore. Ppl should not be distracted too much by the credit crunch in US and missed the big picture. Singapore ppty are going to surge up by at least 30% very soon.

Btw, in addition to the comment, HK ppty prices hv exceeded far from the peak in the 90's.

I can't imagine how much further our ppty prices will go looking at all the transformation and improvement that hv been put in place by our govt compared to what we had in the 90's. It's really ......... unimaginable!!!

[Unregistered]

Hot potato? ha ha ha .......

You should better check out the headline in "Business Times" today. It reported that HK had surged by more than 25% for the last 3 months. This is due to the panic buyers who saw by the high inflation coupled with the constant upward rental pressure. Ppl rushed in to buy their own home to hedge against the inflation.

I believe the situation mirror very closely here in Singapore. Ppl should not be distracted too much by the credit crunch in US and missed the big picture. Singapore ppty are going to surge up by at least 30% very soon.
You can believe what you want about HK.

The fact is: Nobody is buying at this time. Somehow, people here don't panic about prices.

So properties are hot potatoes. Nobody wants to buy them now.

[Unregistered]

You can believe what you want about HK.

The fact is: Nobody is buying at this time. Somehow, people here don't panic about prices.

So properties are hot potatoes. Nobody wants to buy them now.

Whether you want to panic or not is none of my business!

What I know is that Singapore is always following suit what is happening in HK. Being budget surplus, tax rate reduction, GDP growth, inflation rate and last but not least ..... ppty prices.

[Unregistered]

Btw, in addition to the comment, HK ppty prices hv exceeded far from the peak in the 90's.

I can't imagine how much further our ppty prices will go looking at all the transformation and improvement that hv been put in place by our govt compared to what we had in the 90's. It's really ......... unimaginable!!!
Of course it's unimaginable ... because it won't happen. Not enough people here earn that kind of money to pay for that kind of price.

A good gauge of affordability for salaried people is the following:

New property purchase = 5 x annual salary.

These are the folks who have to stay in the condos.

So while the selling prices are looking good, the truth is very few can sell. So your sales queue is very long.

[Unregistered]

Whether you want to panic or not is none of my business!

What I know is that Singapore is always following suit what is happening in HK. Being budget surplus, tax rate reduction, GDP growth, inflation rate and last but not least ..... ppty prices.
Like I said, Singapore doesn't follow HK because we don't panic. Anyway who wants to follow HK?

[Unregistered]

Of course it's unimaginable ... because it won't happen. Not enough people here earn that kind of money to pay for that kind of price.

A good gauge of affordability for salaried people is the following:

New property purchase = 5 x annual salary.

These are the folks who have to stay in the condos.

So while the selling prices are looking good, the truth is very few can sell. So your sales queue is very long.

Don't project yourself on other ppl. Your unaffordability is not other ppl problem ... Wake up, bro!

[Unregistered]

Like I said, Singapore doesn't follow HK because we don't panic. Anyway who wants to follow HK?

Who want to follow HK? Already told you what?! Budget, tax, GDP, inflation and ppty price, they all want to follow HK.

Get it?

[Unregistered]

Don't project yourself on other ppl. Your unaffordability is not other ppl problem ... Wake up, bro!
This is not projection - it's real economics. That's how cities like London and New York have been running. You should wake up from your dream.

[Unregistered]

Who want to follow HK? Already told you what?! Budget, tax, GDP, inflation and ppty price, they all want to follow HK.

Get it?
Get what? Nothing is following HK, except your dreams.

[Unregistered]

Get what? Nothing is following HK, except your dreams.
Don't follow HK to be the wealth management centre of Asia. Overtake them.

[Unregistered]

This is not projection - it's real economics. That's how cities like London and New York have been running. You should wake up from your dream.

Is that true? How come I don't hv such problem? I and most of my colleage agree that we are more than afford to buy a house in Singapore. In fact, we see the current ppty prices are still too cheap compared to our earning power. It's peanut, man.

[Unregistered]

Don't follow HK to be the wealth management centre of Asia. Overtake them.

That is why I wonder how much further our ppty prices should overtake them too?

I heard that HK ppty prices hv exceeded their own peak in the 90's. Can you imagine how much further our ppty prices should increase from here? Unthinkable!

[Unregistered]

Who want to follow HK? Already told you what?! Budget, tax, GDP, inflation and ppty price, they all want to follow HK.

Get it?

Follow HK? Their budget is so much better than us without the GST. I don't even dare to mention their infrastructure.

[Unregistered]

Follow HK? Their budget is so much better than us without the GST. I don't even dare to mention their infrastructure.

Why not? We should be even better moving ahead. We are going to hv two IRs, F1, YOG, environment and many more. We are talking about transformation and competition edge.

[Unregistered]

You are probably a house agent trying to spread rumour on the construction cost getting high and the influx of migrants in the coming months. I doubt readers in this forum will believe you.
US sub-prime problem is now spiraling like mad. Credit card default will show up very soon. With inflation higher all over the world, do you still believe property market will be better? There will be more borderline private home owner giving up the mortgage to switch to cheaper housing. Your bow and arrow will all be broken by then.

You are wrong. I am not a property agent.

I don't think you deal much with property agents, that's why you have this misconception.

A property agent does not care whether the market goes up or comes down. The agent is only interested in closing deals.

When the market goes up, they will go around scaring the buyers "if you don't buy today, tomorrow the price will be even higher". When the market goes down, they will go around scaring the sellers "if you don't sell today, tomorrow the price will be even lower".

Their job is to 见人说人话，见鬼说鬼话. (Translated: see a human speak like a human, see a ghost speak like a ghost).

To the agent, the most important thing is market activity. Doesn't matter whether price up or price down. Hence this period when buyers and sellers are deadlocked and the market is very quiet, I suppose, is a difficult time for agents.

In fact, if the market starts crashing down and sellers panic, with many many deals closed per month, agency commissions will in fact be very high.

This is yet another example of the ignorance of sour grapes.

The first is one who confused "The Bayshore" with "Bayshore Park".
The second is one who does not realise that bulk property purchases are usually discounted.
The third is one who does not know that a bank's job is to lend money and not to speculate in properties.
Now this is a fourth one.

I wonder if they are all the same person. Or are all sour grapes so ignorant?

[Unregistered]

You are wrong. I am not a property agent.

I don't think you deal much with property agents, that's why you have this misconception.

A property agent does not care whether the market goes up or comes down. The agent is only interested in closing deals.

When the market goes up, they will go around scaring the buyers "if you don't buy today, tomorrow the price will be even higher". When the market goes down, they will go around scaring the sellers "if you don't sell today, tomorrow the price will be even lower".

Their job is to 见人说人话，见鬼说鬼话. (Translated: see a human speak like a human, see a ghost speak like a ghost).

To the agent, the most important thing is market activity. Doesn't matter whether price up or price down. Hence this period when buyers and sellers are deadlocked and the market is very quiet, I suppose, is a difficult time for agents.

In fact, if the market starts crashing down and sellers panic, with many many deals closed per month, agency commissions will in fact be very high.

This is yet another example of the ignorance of sour grapes.

The first is one who confused "The Bayshore" with "Bayshore Park".
The second is one who does not realise that bulk property purchases are usually discounted.
The third is one who does not know that a bank's job is to lend money and not to speculate in properties.
Now this is a fourth one.

I wonder if they are all the same person. Or are all sour grapes so ignorant?

If someone who isn't ignorant how to become a sour grape?

Sour grape is like butterfly which goes thru metamorphosis process. It started from an ignorant, and then turns into a naive and eventually to become a sour grape.

[Unregistered]

This is not projection - it's real economics. That's how cities like London and New York have been running. You should wake up from your dream.


Is that true? How come I don't hv such problem? I and most of my colleage agree that we are more than afford to buy a house in Singapore. In fact, we see the current ppty prices are still too cheap compared to our earning power. It's peanut, man.

Aiyoh ... my goodness, I can foresee what sort of response your post is going to get from the sour grapes.

I don't think he will believe you, because he probably lives in a world surrounded by people within the same social class.

The problem here, I believe, is that there are two classes of people talking to each other. That's why sometimes it turns out 牛头不对马嘴 (Crosstalk).

Let me post below some information from IRAS Annual Report 2006 (the latest available). I shall ignore those who earn less than $200,000 per year.

$200,001 to $300,000 per year: 23,092 taxpayers.
$300,001 to $400,000 per year: 9,257 taxpayers.
$400,001 to $500,000 per year: 4,259 taxpayers.
$500,001 to $1,000,000 per year: 5,759 taxpayers.
$1,000,001 and above per year: 2,121 taxpayers.

Total number of taxpayers earning more than $200,000 per year: 44,488.

There are 44,488 people in Singapore earning more than $200,000 per year.

What do we do with all these money? That is one problem. Keep in the bank? The interest is really, I repeat, really miserable.

Buy cars? It's a depreciating asset, and you only need one to get around.

Buy planes? That's for tycoons.

Finally, you know what we buy.

Every few years, when the money in the bank grows to a certain amount, there is an urge to use it.

The first thing that comes to mind is properties. It's like a hobby.

[Unregistered]

Originally Posted by Unregistered
But if you are not holding the end product, you should not be buying a hot potato because you will be paying the inflated construction costs and also someone's profit.

So the moral is: If you own something, hold on. If you don't own something, don't buy a hot potato.


Hot potato? ha ha ha .......

You should better check out the headline in "Business Times" today. It reported that HK had surged by more than 25% for the last 3 months. This is due to the panic buyers who saw by the high inflation coupled with the constant upward rental pressure. Ppl rushed in to buy their own home to hedge against the inflation.

I believe the situation mirror very closely here in Singapore. Ppl should not be distracted too much by the credit crunch in US and missed the big picture. Singapore ppty are going to surge up by at least 30% very soon.

I believe the article you are referring to is the one below ...

I've highlighted certain interesting facts in bold red.

p.s. The following article is REAL.

Unlike the sour grapes, I don't say things without supporting facts.


Business Times

17 Mar 2008

HK houses going for HK$300m

Supply squeeze on luxury homes seen driving up prices by 25% this year

By JANE MOIR
IN HONG KONG

HOUSES at The Peak are fetching close to HK$300 million (S$53 million), and are still rising. This epitomises Hong Kong's very hot luxury property market, which is facing a tight supply squeeze. As a result, prices for top-tier homes are expected to skyrocket by 25 per cent this year alone.

In what is likely the most supply-challenged year since 1997, fewer than 200 units are expected to become available in ultra-high-end residential areas such as The Peak and the South Side, where prices for standalone houses are going for nearly HK$300 million.

In the last quarter of 2007 alone, luxury residential prices at The Peak rose by 11.8 per cent, according to data from property group Colliers International (Hong Kong).

The property firm anticipates growth of 25 per cent in the luxury sector this year. Moreover, supply is unlikely to become better next year and in 2010, it notes.

According to Ricky Poon, executive director of sales at Colliers in Hong Kong, prices at the top end of the market are already outstripping those seen during the previous property market highs of 1997.

'In the super-luxury home area (where properties fetch HK$100 million and above), the prices are transcending the overall luxury market price,' he noted. This would include houses that are in scarce supply in areas such as The Peak - in October, for example, one house there sold for HK$296 million.

'There is limited land supply . . . all the developers are hungry for the prestigious locations,' Mr Poon added.

Some developers have tried to trigger land sales by putting in applications for plots with the government, but the requests have been rejected.
'The government has a high expectation for these types of locations,' Mr Poon explained. 'They expect more money for it.'

He said that the situation is unlikely to improve in the next three years, leading to a situation where stock will fall to as much as 59 per cent below historical averages.

On The Peak, for example, Colliers expects just 18 new houses to become available this year. On the South Side, it expects 11 new units to be completed during the year, while the Mid-Levels is likely to see 165 units become available.

The real estate firm estimates that just under 1,000 units in the residential sector will be completed in 2008, the majority being in the Residence Bel Air complex near the Cyberport development.

According to Mr Poon, among the top buyers of the super-luxurious homes are mainland Chinese. 'I would say 50 to 60 per cent are mainland Chinese, and the rest are mainly second-generation wealthy or celebrities, with a few expatriates,' he said.

Hong Kong's property market has seen a significant upswing on the heels of buoyant stock market activity and the Fed's series of interest rate cuts.
And as inflation in the city increases and rents are pushed upwards, people are opting to buy into the residential sector.

In November, the number of sale and purchase agreements for residential units rose to 15,759, the biggest number of transactions in a single month since July 1997.

In the luxury sector, the number of sale transactions exceeding HK$10 million saw growth of 40 per cent between September and November compared with the year-ago period.

Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Unregistered]

Today newspaper just revealed that Kuwait is in trouble. The ministers in Kuwait's Cabinet submitted their resignation en masse yesterday, in the latest political crisis to hit the Gulf emirate.

That could be the main reason for them to pull out the purchase.

[Unregistered]

Follow HK? Their budget is so much better than us without the GST. I don't even dare to mention their infrastructure.
What is their infrastructure compared to ours going on? Our potential is huge.

[Unregistered]

Recession would bring a slump in prices. No demand would add to the slump. Credit crunch would further bring down the exhorbitant prices by about 40%. Prices would come down for sure.

That is US.

We are in Asia and this forum is for ppty investment in Singapore.

[Unregistered]

My argument is this.

If I wait at the sideline for the prices to be corrected - say 10% to 20% - I believe the price will rebound back very fast, as there are massive demand and thousands of buyers in the waiting.

And once the prices find it base, guess what, it's going to escalate up even more rapidly as the investor strengtening their holding power and as time passes the global economy has also recovered strongly.

As such, I believe waiting in the sideline is going to be a losing strategy. It's better to jump in now than later, before other buyers start lining up like ppl ballot to get a HDB.

[Unregistered]

I think a good percentage of these are foreign expatriates who will butterfly to other countries or return home once their contract ends.

They will not want to buy a house in Singapore other than for speculative or at best short-term investment purpose.

I agree that buying properties are good investments compared to bank deposits. But timing is of utmost importance. You buy at the peak, you will be stuck for decades and suffer heartburn for prolonged period. This applies regardless of which income bracket you belong.



Aiyoh ... my goodness, I can foresee what sort of response your post is going to get from the sour grapes.

I don't think he will believe you, because he probably lives in a world surrounded by people within the same social class.

The problem here, I believe, is that there are two classes of people talking to each other. That's why sometimes it turns out 牛头不对马嘴 (Crosstalk).

Let me post below some information from IRAS Annual Report 2006 (the latest available). I shall ignore those who earn less than $200,000 per year.

$200,001 to $300,000 per year: 23,092 taxpayers.
$300,001 to $400,000 per year: 9,257 taxpayers.
$400,001 to $500,000 per year: 4,259 taxpayers.
$500,001 to $1,000,000 per year: 5,759 taxpayers.
$1,000,001 and above per year: 2,121 taxpayers.

Total number of taxpayers earning more than $200,000 per year: 44,488.

There are 44,488 people in Singapore earning more than $200,000 per year.

What do we do with all these money? That is one problem. Keep in the bank? The interest is really, I repeat, really miserable.

Buy cars? It's a depreciating asset, and you only need one to get around.

Buy planes? That's for tycoons.

Finally, you know what we buy.

Every few years, when the money in the bank grows to a certain amount, there is an urge to use it.

The first thing that comes to mind is properties. It's like a hobby.

[Unregistered]

If you are really bullish on the economy, there are 101 things which you can presently buy at great discounts. Property counters, REITS, etc. They are all trading at 20% - 50% discount to NTAs.

They probably offer better value than actual properties. Besides, share prices have dropped so much that, if indeed there will be a quick recovery of the economy like what you are dreaming of, the speed and magnitude of gain is likely to dwarf that of the property market.

Property market typically trail the stock market by one year. In my honest opinion, it is currently trailing the decline.



My argument is this.

If I wait at the sideline for the prices to be corrected - say 10% to 20% - I believe the price will rebound back very fast, as there are massive demand and thousands of buyers in the waiting.

And once the prices find it base, guess what, it's going to escalate up even more rapidly as the investor strengtening their holding power and as time passes the global economy has also recovered strongly.

As such, I believe waiting in the sideline is going to be a losing strategy. It's better to jump in now than later, before other buyers start lining up like ppl ballot to get a HDB.

[Unregistered]

If you are really bullish on the economy, there are 101 things which you can presently buy at great discounts. Property counters, REITS, etc. They are all trading at 20% - 50% discount to NTAs.

They probably offer better value than actual properties. Besides, share prices have dropped so much that, if indeed there will be a quick recovery of the economy like what you are dreaming of, the speed and magnitude of gain is likely to dwarf that of the property market.

Property market typically trail the stock market by one year. In my honest opinion, it is currently trailing the decline.



don't be naive, physical property is different from property counters in stock market.
Property stock has come down since last year, but property is still moving upwards.
Especially those small & medium size property counters, also Reits, if you do not know the company well, avoid them. Many stock can just disappear from stock market or down to few cents for a long time.
For physical property if you can hold sure make money in long run regardless the location or size. Rental yield is also better as there is no guarantee you will get dividend.

[Unregistered]

If you are really bullish on the economy, there are 101 things which you can presently buy at great discounts. Property counters, REITS, etc. They are all trading at 20% - 50% discount to NTAs.

They probably offer better value than actual properties. Besides, share prices have dropped so much that, if indeed there will be a quick recovery of the economy like what you are dreaming of, the speed and magnitude of gain is likely to dwarf that of the property market.

Property market typically trail the stock market by one year. In my honest opinion, it is currently trailing the decline.

You are right that the property market typically trails the stock market by one year. This is because the property market is sluggish and has great inertia, whereas the stock market is nimble and reacts quickly to news.

Hence if you analyse the two market trends, you will notice that the property market hasn't even trailed the stock market's upward explosion from 3000 points in Jan 2007 to 3905 in Oct 2007, so how can the property market even start trailing the stock market's decline yet?

The property market's upward explosion for the past two years, i.e. 2006 and 2007 is actually trailing the stock market's upward explosion in 2005 and 2006, respectively.

From Jan 2005 to Dec 2006, the Straits Times Industrial Index (STI) went up from 2000 points to 3000 points, an increase of 50%. This is approximately equal to the percentage increase in the property market for the last two years 2006 and 2007.

As for the STI's overshot to 3905 all-time high in Oct 2007, the property market hasn't even have time to react to that yet, since property trails stocks by about one year.

Hence today, as the stock market falls back down to around 2825 points, the property market should be at fair value.

However, if the STI had stayed around 3905 for one year, then one year later (i.e. 2009) the property market will probably reach a super redhot level where you see Orchard Road properties being transacted at $7000 psf (instead of $4000 to $5000 psf), and mass market condos at $1,100 psf instead of ($800 psf), and HDB flats in popular areas crossing the $1 million mark.

But that will not happen now because the STI has come down. So I think if the STI hovers around this level, the property market will also hover around this level.

Unless, of course, the STI crashes to below 2000 points, then that's a different story altogether.

[Unregistered]

It is an illusion to think that property is moving upwards when there are so few buyers. This stand-off has to be resolve somehow in a game of who-blinks-first.

Even those who argue about good rental yields are plastering over the fact that speculators have bought into new developments with 20% under DPS and are obviously receiving no returns for these stagnant funds. They will have to convince banks to lend them funds when TOP comes around. Would the banks believe their stories about rental then?

[Unregistered]

It is an illusion to think that property is moving upwards when there are so few buyers. This stand-off has to be resolve somehow in a game of who-blinks-first.

Even those who argue about good rental yields are plastering over the fact that speculators have bought into new developments with 20% under DPS and are obviously receiving no returns for these stagnant funds. They will have to convince banks to lend them funds when TOP comes around. Would the banks believe their stories about rental then?

You assume too much about speculators.

Who do you think are speculators?

The engineer who earns $4000 a month? Or the computer programmer who earns $3000 a month?

These are the people who write to forums in Straits Times complaining about HDB flats being too expensive. Not people who plonk down 20% for a multi million-dollar property.

Of course there may be the odd ones out who are so bold, but they are the very very minority. Otherwise Singapore will be flooded with entrepreneurs and not sour grapes.

With the exception of a few, most "speculators" have fairly deep pockets.

I have a "speculative" property for which I placed a 20% TOP (you are worried about no returns? If I put the money in the bank, the interest is also about 0%).

The TOP is coming but I am still holding to it because it has appreciated about 100% since I bought in 2005.

Even if it is not rented out (I don't know how you have this idea that it cannot be rented out) but assuming so, I have already secured the bank financing just by showing the bank my IRAS statement and they are very convinced. So I don't see why they need to know about the rental yield.

Coming to the last part (the rental yield), even if I ask for a rent equal to that commanded by HDB flats in that area, I can still earn a yield enough to pay the interest to the bank.

You must understand that the market has moved up rapidly over the past 3 years. Not only the capital value but rental as well.

The projects coming TOP soon are those that are bought around 2005 and we are sitting on very huge paper profits. The rental during this period has gone crazy, including the HDB flats.

Perhaps you can help us "worry" about those projects that are bought in 2007 and going to TOP in 2010, assuming the US sub-prime problem drags on until then.

[Unregistered]

You assume too much about speculators.

Who do you think are speculators?

The engineer who earns $4000 a month? Or the computer programmer who earns $3000 a month?

These are the people who write to forums in Straits Times complaining about HDB flats being too expensive. Not people who plonk down 20% for a multi million-dollar property.

Of course there may be the odd ones out who are so bold, but they are the very very minority. Otherwise Singapore will be flooded with entrepreneurs and not sour grapes.

With the exception of a few, most "speculators" have fairly deep pockets.

I have a "speculative" property for which I placed a 20% TOP (you are worried about no returns? If I put the money in the bank, the interest is also about 0%).

The TOP is coming but I am still holding to it because it has appreciated about 100% since I bought in 2005.

Even if it is not rented out (I don't know how you have this idea that it cannot be rented out) but assuming so, I have already secured the bank financing just by showing the bank my IRAS statement and they are very convinced. So I don't see why they need to know about the rental yield.

Coming to the last part (the rental yield), even if I ask for a rent equal to that commanded by HDB flats in that area, I can still earn a yield enough to pay the interest to the bank.

You must understand that the market has moved up rapidly over the past 3 years. Not only the capital value but rental as well.

The projects coming TOP soon are those that are bought around 2005 and we are sitting on very huge paper profits. The rental during this period has gone crazy, including the HDB flats.

Perhaps you can help us "worry" about those projects that are bought in 2007 and going to TOP in 2010, assuming the US sub-prime problem drags on until then.

Great post. Very well written and captures the essence of the debate. This is Reality versus Myth.

[BayshorePark-Enbloc]

experts any ideas when this beautiful place will be enblocked and better apartments than existing can be built . I hope they keep landscaping on high prioprity whenever this place is rebuilt. Landscaping is the one thing which attracts locals as well as foreigners to this place.

[Unregistered]

Shakespeare's famous quotation "some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon them."

Here in this forum we see "Some are born poor, some achieve poorness and some have poorness thrust upon them."

They've got nothing better to do than hoping that the property market collapses, or hallucinating about placing 1% deposits.


Sori to interrupt.

These people did not achieve poorness or have poorness thrust upon them; they are merely GAMBLERS, gambling with the market.

And we need them, plenty of them whether in the property market, in the stock market or on the casino tables, otherwise Singapore won't be building the IRs!

[Unregistered]

My brother who works in the property industry told me that construction cost has risen to around $450 psf.

This is primarily due to the contnuous increase in steel price and labour costs, plus one off cement price hike due to Indonesia's sand ban.

China's voracious appetite for raw materials and minerals caused asset inflation throughout the world and a relentless rise in the Australian dollar due to its huge mineral resources.

At the same time, our construction of the two Integrated Resorts and MRT lines sucked away a lot of construction resources. Nowdays contractors are very busy and even crane operators are earning $8000 per month with overtime.

Can you imagine just the construction cost alone today is equal to the price of entire mass market condo a few years' back. That's not including land costs and developers' margins.

That's why developers are now being squeezed and their share price has fallen a lot.

But if you are holding the end product, i.e. a completed condo unit, then that means you are hedged against further raw material cost inflation.

And if the developers hold back or cancel launches, that means the supply will be even less.

Add to that the 80,000 new citizens and PRs coming in every year, I forsee a potentially explosive situation in the rental market.

The property market has been holding back recently due to the sub-prime issue, like an arrow on bow with a stretched string. Once the sub-prime blows over, the price is going to shoot through the sky.

Sorry, your brother works in the property industry (meaning housing developer or housing agents), but I am a building contractor and I can vouch for your brother only in the high end developments selling above $2,500 psf., definitely not for the mass market developments.

Before the Indonesian sand fiasco, construction cost was only in the region of $180 to $220 psf (depending on quality of finish, height, foundation, etc.), but after the big hoo haa and the inflation on steel and concrete, construction costs are now in the region of $250 - $280, definitely not doubled to $450!

To verify my statement above, just look at last Monday's ST on the money page whereby the West Coast Cresecent plot was sold for $305 psf, and the article projected that the final sale price would be $750 to $800 psf. If the construction cost is indeed $450 psf or thereabouts, then add this to the land acquisition cost of $305, the primary costs, excluding marketing and financiing costs, professional and govt fees, developer's profit, etc., would have been more than the $750 psf sale price.

[Unregistered]

It is an illusion to think that property is moving upwards when there are so few buyers. This stand-off has to be resolve somehow in a game of who-blinks-first.

Even those who argue about good rental yields are plastering over the fact that speculators have bought into new developments with 20% under DPS and are obviously receiving no returns for these stagnant funds. They will have to convince banks to lend them funds when TOP comes around. Would the banks believe their stories about rental then?


Perhaps the Kuwait fund fiasco can be explained by the marathon race if we can compare the property market with the marathon.

At one point, usually the start, you see all the runners dashing with explosive energy -- looks like the property market in June 2007, doesn't it?

Somewhere 5 km down the track, you don't see so many runners because they need to take slow down to refill their lungs, for some, others continue their surge, like the current property market.

That is why the prices remains relatively firm and, in fact, some even broke records set during the June - Nov 2007 period.

If you position yourself at the finishing line or somewhere in the last lap of the race, you can see another surge and plenty of runners forcing themselves to the finishing line.

In between the race, at different stages, you can always see some runners slowing down, while others surging ahead.

Look at last Tuesday's ST's Money Page report on the West Coast Cresecent plot where the 99-year State land plot was invaded by a WHOPPING 12 bids, whereas a week earlier (or so?), the Westwood Avenue site was deserted like a cemetry and the sale had to be withdrawn.

Unfortunately, the property market is not a marathon so we won't know where's the starting line and where's the finish. Just use our sixth sense and try our luck.

On the brighter side, I would like to have more foreign funds like the Kuwait, to speculate in our property market. Why, you would ask?

At first glance, it is bad because they have more money and therefore push up prices.

But if Edward de Bono has his way, the other view, like the Kuwait fund, is to help our developers balance their books so that the same property, after forfeiting the deposit, can be resold to locals at lower prices -- lateral thinking, that is.

Have a nice weekend tossing your coin.

[Unregistered]

Sorry, your brother works in the property industry (meaning housing developer or housing agents), but I am a building contractor and I can vouch for your brother only in the high end developments selling above $2,500 psf., definitely not for the mass market developments.

Before the Indonesian sand fiasco, construction cost was only in the region of $180 to $220 psf (depending on quality of finish, height, foundation, etc.), but after the big hoo haa and the inflation on steel and concrete, construction costs are now in the region of $250 - $280, definitely not doubled to $450!

To verify my statement above, just look at last Monday's ST on the money page whereby the West Coast Cresecent plot was sold for $305 psf, and the article projected that the final sale price would be $750 to $800 psf. If the construction cost is indeed $450 psf or thereabouts, then add this to the land acquisition cost of $305, the primary costs, excluding marketing and financiing costs, professional and govt fees, developer's profit, etc., would have been more than the $750 psf sale price.

sorry your info is incorrect. current construction cost for entry level condo is $380-420 psf and climbing. please don't mislead readers here. ST article clearly quote breakeven price of $680-720 with possible selling price of $750-800.

[Unregistered]

Sorry, your brother works in the property industry (meaning housing developer or housing agents), but I am a building contractor and I can vouch for your brother only in the high end developments selling above $2,500 psf., definitely not for the mass market developments.

Before the Indonesian sand fiasco, construction cost was only in the region of $180 to $220 psf (depending on quality of finish, height, foundation, etc.), but after the big hoo haa and the inflation on steel and concrete, construction costs are now in the region of $250 - $280, definitely not doubled to $450!

To verify my statement above, just look at last Monday's ST on the money page whereby the West Coast Cresecent plot was sold for $305 psf, and the article projected that the final sale price would be $750 to $800 psf. If the construction cost is indeed $450 psf or thereabouts, then add this to the land acquisition cost of $305, the primary costs, excluding marketing and financiing costs, professional and govt fees, developer's profit, etc., would have been more than the $750 psf sale price.

You can go bid for MacRitchie car park project since your cost is $150-200 below market price. Who are you trying to con here.

[Unregistered]

Sorry, your brother works in the property industry (meaning housing developer or housing agents), but I am a building contractor and I can vouch for your brother only in the high end developments selling above $2,500 psf., definitely not for the mass market developments.

Before the Indonesian sand fiasco, construction cost was only in the region of $180 to $220 psf (depending on quality of finish, height, foundation, etc.), but after the big hoo haa and the inflation on steel and concrete, construction costs are now in the region of $250 - $280, definitely not doubled to $450!

To verify my statement above, just look at last Monday's ST on the money page whereby the West Coast Cresecent plot was sold for $305 psf, and the article projected that the final sale price would be $750 to $800 psf. If the construction cost is indeed $450 psf or thereabouts, then add this to the land acquisition cost of $305, the primary costs, excluding marketing and financiing costs, professional and govt fees, developer's profit, etc., would have been more than the $750 psf sale price.

I agree with you, I am in the construction industries too. that fellow bullshit in Condosingapore.com too.

[Unregistered]

You assume too much about speculators.

Who do you think are speculators?

The engineer who earns $4000 a month? Or the computer programmer who earns $3000 a month?

These are the people who write to forums in Straits Times complaining about HDB flats being too expensive. Not people who plonk down 20% for a multi million-dollar property.

Of course there may be the odd ones out who are so bold, but they are the very very minority. Otherwise Singapore will be flooded with entrepreneurs and not sour grapes.

With the exception of a few, most "speculators" have fairly deep pockets.

I have a "speculative" property for which I placed a 20% TOP (you are worried about no returns? If I put the money in the bank, the interest is also about 0%).

The TOP is coming but I am still holding to it because it has appreciated about 100% since I bought in 2005.

Even if it is not rented out (I don't know how you have this idea that it cannot be rented out) but assuming so, I have already secured the bank financing just by showing the bank my IRAS statement and they are very convinced. So I don't see why they need to know about the rental yield.

Coming to the last part (the rental yield), even if I ask for a rent equal to that commanded by HDB flats in that area, I can still earn a yield enough to pay the interest to the bank.

You must understand that the market has moved up rapidly over the past 3 years. Not only the capital value but rental as well.

The projects coming TOP soon are those that are bought around 2005 and we are sitting on very huge paper profits. The rental during this period has gone crazy, including the HDB flats.

Perhaps you can help us "worry" about those projects that are bought in 2007 and going to TOP in 2010, assuming the US sub-prime problem drags on until then.
Aiya .. can't even understand simple logic. Not yet TOP how to get rental? So money is sitting with developer right? No returns yet right?

As for 100% gain, that is your claim. Who knows? And who cares? No worries mate. Go and make your money.

But some will get burnt - maybe you, maybe not you. Just a faceless speculator to us. We are just discussing whether prices go up or down, not who makes the money.

[Unregistered]

I agree with you, I am in the construction industries too. that fellow bullshit in Condosingapore.com too.

Isn't this website Condosingapore.com?

[Unregistered]

I agree with you, I am in the construction industries too. that fellow bullshit in Condosingapore.com too.

You are in the construction industry then you should be happy that construction costs increase and property market rises.

Construction boom means more business for you.

Why you side with the "sour grapes"?

[Unregistered]

You are in the construction industry then you should be happy that construction costs increase and property market rises.

Construction boom means more business for you.

Why you side with the "sour grapes"?

Good one. When all the bad news are not able to send prices down to the level that they expect. The sour grapes get frustrated and start spining lies to distort construction cost.

[Unregistered]

Good one. When all the bad news are not able to send prices down to the level that they expect. The sour grapes get frustrated and start spining lies to distort construction cost.


I think you are more frustrated with sour grapes and that made you even more sour.

[Unregistered]

Aiya .. can't even understand simple logic. Not yet TOP how to get rental? So money is sitting with developer right? No returns yet right?

As for 100% gain, that is your claim. Who knows? And who cares? No worries mate. Go and make your money.

But some will get burnt - maybe you, maybe not you. Just a faceless speculator to us. We are just discussing whether prices go up or down, not who makes the money.

Can, probably getting some rentals from those construction workers.

[Unregistered]

You are in the construction industry then you should be happy that construction costs increase and property market rises.

Construction boom means more business for you.

Why you side with the "sour grapes"?

If construction cost is $450psf currently and inflation is getting higher at this rate, contraxtors will close down by year end. Then can wait longer for TOP. Also can resell the unit at higher price.

[Unregistered]

If construction cost is $450psf currently and inflation is getting higher at this rate, contraxtors will close down by year end. Then can wait longer for TOP. Also can resell the unit at higher price.


few ways,
building cost keep going up, delay completion date, less units TOP, limit supply in next 5 years.
completed per schedule, increased price.
no launching, no new supply OR launch at high price like HDB.
HDB will be selling at market price, if they are going to subsidise, then all sporean should entitle to the same subsidiesd $ in their bank account. That is fair & equal.
If want to subsidise, account book must be clear to publish out & transparent.

[Unregistered]

Heard Kuwaiti fund is still in the process of finalising deal with Guocoland. I think a fair price will be around $2600psf instead of $3200psf. Let's see

[Unregistered]

Heard Kuwaiti fund is still in the process of finalising deal with Guocoland. I think a fair price will be around $2600psf instead of $3200psf. Let's see

so that the fund could on sell it at $3200 psf and make a 20% profit for its bulk purchase

[Unregistered]

so that the fund could on sell it at $3200 psf and make a 20% profit for its bulk purchase
Who knows will make or lose 20%. Both possible.

[Unregistered]

If construction cost is $450psf currently and inflation is getting higher at this rate, contraxtors will close down by year end. Then can wait longer for TOP. Also can resell the unit at higher price.

That is precisely where our ppty markets are heading to.

[Unregistered]

That is precisely where our ppty markets are heading to.
Can resell at higher prices? I don't mind man.

[Unregistered]

You are right that the property market typically trails the stock market by one year. This is because the property market is sluggish and has great inertia, whereas the stock market is nimble and reacts quickly to news.

Hence if you analyse the two market trends, you will notice that the property market hasn't even trailed the stock market's upward explosion from 3000 points in Jan 2007 to 3905 in Oct 2007, so how can the property market even start trailing the stock market's decline yet?

The property market's upward explosion for the past two years, i.e. 2006 and 2007 is actually trailing the stock market's upward explosion in 2005 and 2006, respectively.

From Jan 2005 to Dec 2006, the Straits Times Industrial Index (STI) went up from 2000 points to 3000 points, an increase of 50%. This is approximately equal to the percentage increase in the property market for the last two years 2006 and 2007.

As for the STI's overshot to 3905 all-time high in Oct 2007, the property market hasn't even have time to react to that yet, since property trails stocks by about one year.

Hence today, as the stock market falls back down to around 2825 points, the property market should be at fair value.

However, if the STI had stayed around 3905 for one year, then one year later (i.e. 2009) the property market will probably reach a super redhot level where you see Orchard Road properties being transacted at $7000 psf (instead of $4000 to $5000 psf), and mass market condos at $1,100 psf instead of ($800 psf), and HDB flats in popular areas crossing the $1 million mark.

But that will not happen now because the STI has come down. So I think if the STI hovers around this level, the property market will also hover around this level.

Unless, of course, the STI crashes to below 2000 points, then that's a different story altogether.

Brilliant. This is a sort of comments that everyone of us wish to get in this forum. Very objective and relevant. Well done.

[Analyst]

Brilliant. This is a sort of comments that everyone of us wish to get in this forum. Very objective and relevant. Well done.

I don't know whether you are the same person who wrote the quote that you pasted in your reply, since there is no way to identify you.

For property, as with stocks, it is all about sentiments. Whether one trails the other or what the time frame is for `traling' is not an exact science. Thus, the one year time frame is not a useful guide at all.

And the stock market, as far as I can remember, did not end at 3900 plus on any one day, whether in Oct 07 or otherwise.

All the comments on this forum, does nothing for the prices either way. Even the property experts from the real estate firms have been discredited, since they have a vested interest in talking things up.

Only the big boy developers who put the money where there mouth is, by investing in developments, or choosing not to invest, that really can affect anything. The rest will just have to monitor, be nimble and get in or out while the going is good (or bad) accordingly.

[Unregistered]

I don't know whether you are the same person who wrote the quote that you pasted in your reply, since there is no way to identify you.

For property, as with stocks, it is all about sentiments. Whether one trails the other or what the time frame is for `traling' is not an exact science. Thus, the one year time frame is not a useful guide at all.

And the stock market, as far as I can remember, did not end at 3900 plus on any one day, whether in Oct 07 or otherwise.

All the comments on this forum, does nothing for the prices either way. Even the property experts from the real estate firms have been discredited, since they have a vested interest in talking things up.

Only the big boy developers who put the money where there mouth is, by investing in developments, or choosing not to invest, that really can affect anything. The rest will just have to monitor, be nimble and get in or out while the going is good (or bad) accordingly.
Actually I agree with you. Only the big boys/developers can influence the market. So let's see what's their next move. It can be up. It can be down too.

[Unregistered]

I don't know whether you are the same person who wrote the quote that you pasted in your reply, since there is no way to identify you.

For property, as with stocks, it is all about sentiments. Whether one trails the other or what the time frame is for `traling' is not an exact science. Thus, the one year time frame is not a useful guide at all.

And the stock market, as far as I can remember, did not end at 3900 plus on any one day, whether in Oct 07 or otherwise.

All the comments on this forum, does nothing for the prices either way. Even the property experts from the real estate firms have been discredited, since they have a vested interest in talking things up.

Only the big boy developers who put the money where there mouth is, by investing in developments, or choosing not to invest, that really can affect anything. The rest will just have to monitor, be nimble and get in or out while the going is good (or bad) accordingly.
Yes!! This is the best comment so far. Unlike all the purported self-congratulatory messages from those talking up the market.

[Unregistered]

The STI stock market index has plunged about 20% from its peak, but the URA property index still seems to move up exponentially.

How can this be?

Let’s study the STI graph superimposed over the URA property index graph. Both graphs are scaled such that their time axes coincide, and their Asian financial crisis bottoms & dotcom peaks are at the same levels. STI is indicated by the dark blue line, while the pink line with blue crosses is for the URA index for condominiums (the other lines are for detached, semi-detached, terrace and apartments):

http://www.salary.sg/historical-property-index-against-STI-2008-large.gif

You should be able to see from the 2 graphs that the property bottom in end 1998 lagged the stocks bottom by about a quarter (i.e. 3 months). Similarly, the property peak in mid 2000 also lagged the stocks peak by about 1 to 2 quarters.

Now, fast forward to end 2007. The stock market has clearly tanked, amidst high inflation and comparatively stagnant salaries. But property is apparently still moving up, up and up! This can’t continue.

I hereby predict that property prices will plunge within the next 3 to 6 months. By at least 20%.

Want more evidence? In the last month (February), property developers were so spooked by the worsening economy that they launched only 343 units in the whole country, out of which only a miserable 170 got sold (excluding ECs). Oh yeah, maybe it’s the Chinese New Year.

References: URA news release and STI data in Yahoo! Finance.

[Unregistered]

It's time to kill the speculators.
Let them get a taste of their own medicine.
SIBOR is going drop fast to 0.75%.

When SIBOR hit 0.75%, there will be blood everywhere.
Burn all these speculators.

Kill kill kill!
Die die die!
Ha ha ha!


http://www.straitstimes.com/STI/STIMEDIA/common/mast_home.gif
Singapore interest rates likely to fall further
Fed cut and robust Sing$ could push interbank lending rate below 1%
Nicholas Fang
The Straits Times
Monday, 24 March 2008

Singaporeans can expect cheaper mortgages but lower savings and fixed deposit rates in the months to come.

This is after a move by the United States Federal Reserve to slash a key US interest rate last week.

The Fed had cut three-quarters of a point off its federal funds rate, bringing it to 2.25%, to fight a mushrooming credit crisis and a slowing US economy.

Economists in Singapore said the lowering of the Fed funds rate will have a knock- on effect in the Republic.

The Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (Sibor), or the rate at which banks lend to one another, tends to track the Fed rate.

Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng said: 'For Singapore rates, the trend is downwards. We expect the Fed to cut its rate to 1% and Singapore should follow with a lag.'

http://i266.photobucket.com/albums/ii268/kcc0002/GoingDown24Mar08.jpg

He lowered his forecast for the Sibor, estimating it would fall to as low as 0.75% by the end of the third quarter, down from an earlier estimate of 1%.

A recent report by DBS Group Research also forecast the Sibor would fall, to 0.83% in the second quarter, and remain at that rate through the second half before rising next year.

The three-month Sibor fell to a 12-month low of 1.25% last Monday, before recovering to 1.425% on Thursday, ahead of the Good Friday public holiday.

Mr Kit said Singapore rates were also affected by the Singapore dollar's appreciation against the US currency. He said the Singdollar is most probably at the top end of the secret trade-weighted band within which the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) guides the currency.

'With the Singdollar expected to continue appreciating, MAS will aim to moderate it by flooding the market with liquidity, which will in turn pressure interest rates downwards,' he said.

OCBC economist Selena Ling said another consequence of the strong Singdollar would be a high inflow of foreign capital into the Republic. 'This can also contribute to lower interest rates.'

For consumers, the net result is both good and bad.

Banks recently embarked on a mortgage loan war, with Maybank firing the first salvo last month with an aggressive three-year, fixed-rate package offered at 1.68% for the first year.

DBS Bank and United Overseas Bank (UOB) have also unveiled attractive packages. UOB has one that offers a zero rate in the first year.

And with Sibor-linked home loan package rates likely to head south too, it could be a good time to refinance mortgage loans, experts said.

A DBS spokesman said: 'DBS offers transparent mortgage rates pegged to the Sibor and the CPF Ordinary Account rate, so our rates will move in tandem with market forces.'

But there is also the possibility that savings and fixed deposit rates could slump as interest rates go down.

OCBC's vice-president for group wealth management, Mr Fabian Lum, said the bank would review its deposit rates to keep them in line with prevailing market conditions.

And while the bank has not changed its savings rate recently, it lowered its 12-month fixed deposit rate for amounts between $50,000 and $1 million to 1.2% a year from 1.4% earlier this month.

DBS said that its savings deposit rates had not been adjusted since 2005, but added that its fixed deposit rates are always pegged to the interbank rate and would thus be adjusted accordingly.

CIMB-GK economist Song Seng Wun said that the low interest rates did not reflect a lack of liquidity on the part of banks. 'The loans-deposit ratio is still very strong, so banks definitely have the money to lend,' he said.

'But I think there is greater caution now, after what has happened in the US with the sub-prime crisis, and people are much more cautious nowadays when it comes to borrowing and lending money.'

[Unregistered]

Brilliant. This is a sort of comments that everyone of us wish to get in this forum. Very objective and relevant. Well done.


I don't know whether you are the same person who wrote the quote that you pasted in your reply, since there is no way to identify you.

For property, as with stocks, it is all about sentiments. Whether one trails the other or what the time frame is for `traling' is not an exact science. Thus, the one year time frame is not a useful guide at all.

And the stock market, as far as I can remember, did not end at 3900 plus on any one day, whether in Oct 07 or otherwise.

All the comments on this forum, does nothing for the prices either way. Even the property experts from the real estate firms have been discredited, since they have a vested interest in talking things up.

Only the big boy developers who put the money where there mouth is, by investing in developments, or choosing not to invest, that really can affect anything. The rest will just have to monitor, be nimble and get in or out while the going is good (or bad) accordingly.


Yes!! This is the best comment so far. Unlike all the purported self-congratulatory messages from those talking up the market.

Oh mine! I just saw your comments and couldn't stop laughing.

I was the one who posted the original analysis, but definitely not the one who said that my comments were "Brilliant ... objective and relevant ..."

Where got so 无聊? Praise myself?

Then in that case I can also say that the person praising you with the comment "Yes!! This is the best comment so far." is also yourself.

Anyway regarding the STI, the all-time high was on:

................(Open).....(High).....(Low)......(Close)
10-Oct-07 3,899.29 3,906.16 3,814.45 3,814.45

The closing high was on:

11-Oct-07 3,821.60 3,897.10 3,821.22 3,875.77