View Full Version : Demand for private homes in the city expected to rebound
princess_morbucks
12-12-13, 22:28
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/demand-for-private-homes/920536.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
SINGAPORE: The buying interest for private homes in the city is expected to make a comeback as prices continue to moderate.
Some property analysts believe demand for these high-end homes could pick up as early as the middle of next year.
But others have said the cooling measures may still weigh on buying sentiment going forward.
The brisk sales at DUO Residences at Bugis recently showed that there is still strong interest for private residential properties in the city, if the price is right.
For example, its average selling price of S$2,000 per square foot was 20 per cent lower than units in the vicinity.
Analysts said foreigners account for about one-third of the demand for high-end homes and the cooling measures have kept them on the sidelines. However, analysts note that some foreign investors are coming back to the market.
As at the third quarter of 2013, 10,538 units of completed and uncompleted private homes in the Core Central Region (CCR) are unsold.
That is about one-third of the unsold inventory islandwide.
Unsold stock in the city fringe stands at 9,039 units and 12,655 units in the suburban areas, according to property consultancy Knight Frank.
Knight Frank said the number of unsold units has started to decline since the second quarter of last year.
Alice Tan, associate director and head of consultancy and research at Knight Frank, said: "The unsold inventory in the Core Central Region has actually started to see a gradual decline since the second quarter 2012. The gradual decline is about 4 per cent per quarter. This actually reflects that the demand for CCR private homes is gradually returning.
“From the middle of next year, demand for high-end homes could return as prices start to moderate to a level that more potential buyers start to see its value. So there could be an uptick in overall home prices from the second half of next year onwards.”
Knight Frank said that according to its research, in the last few quarters, prices of new high-end homes in districts 1, 2 and 9 were about five to eight per cent lower compared to the period before the seventh round of cooling measures, which was implemented in January this year.
Another property firm, Century 21, said homes in the CCR are relatively under-valued.
Prices there have only climbed 7 per cent since the peak in 2008, compared to 17 per cent for homes in the city fringe, and 47 per cent for suburban homes.
Ku Swee Yong, CEO of Century 21, said: "Where we find most value for money now would be in CCR properties, especially in freehold properties, because the proportion of freehold properties in Singapore has been reducing quite quickly with more Government Land Sales sites that are coming out with 99-year leases.
“In terms of rebound, we would need to see renewed foreign buying into CCR and foreign buying could probably go up only if there are adjustments to the 15 per cent ABSD (Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty) for foreigners and 10 per cent for PRs (Permanent Residents) holding more than one unit."
According to the Urban Redevelopment Authority, CCR home prices have fallen in the second and third quarter.
Prices of non-landed properties in the CCR increased by 0.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2013, but fell 0.2 per cent in the second quarter and 0.3 per cent in the third quarter.
And analysts expect a further moderation of 0.5 to 1 per cent this quarter.
As prices weaken, demand for city homes could return, possibly in the second half of next year.
Knight Frank said this could spark a gradual increase in home prices in the CCR.
The current market pricing is very simple..... it's either OCR overpriced or ccr underpriced.... One has to be true.....
If OCR is not overpriced means ccr is underpriced.....
I think in all other cities, the gap should be about 3-4 times, for similar quality condo in ccr and ocr
princess_morbucks
12-12-13, 23:52
Actually Singapore being a small country, whether OCR, RCR or CCR, it doesn't matter much in terms of distance to the CBD.
Hence the important factor for investment property still lies in the rental yield.
Actually Singapore being a small country, whether OCR, RCR or CCR, it doesn't matter much in terms of distance to the CBD.
Hence the important factor for investment property still lies in the rental yield.
actually it does... look at all other global cities and compare the price difference between core central and outlying areas..... London shanghai, new york, and closer to home, hong kong and you will know what I mean
Actually Singapore being a small country, whether OCR, RCR or CCR, it doesn't matter much in terms of distance to the CBD.
Hence the important factor for investment property still lies in the rental yield.
It's only in these few years where OCR booms.eventually mkt will find equilibrium
actually it does... look at all other global cities and compare the price difference between core central and outlying areas..... London shanghai, new york, and closer to home, hong kong and you will know what I mean
How CCR property will perform next year will really depends on expat housing budget offer by companies operating here in Singapore, particularly those in the banking and service sector.
Singapore government is actually a lot smarter than those government of those cities you mention above. For our government their objective is make land in every corner of Singapore valuable and thats the reason why they are spending more of their focus on developing outskirt area, like Woodland, Seletar, Jurong, and very soon the southern coastal area.
Like I said before, to government, LH land are more worthy of infrastructure development as compare to FH ones. So for CCR, I think the buying activities will center around Marina Bay area.
Singapore home prices could fall 20% by 2015: Barclays
Published: Friday, 27 Sep 2013 | 5:31 AM ET
By: Ansuya Harjani | Writer, CNBC Asia
Residential property prices in the wealthy island nation of Singapore could be headed for a sizable correction of up to 20 percent by 2015, according to Barclays.
"We believe the risk of a residential property market correction in the next two years is rising, as expected higher interest rates look set to coincide with a large increase in housing supply over 2014-15," Tricia Song, analyst at Barclays wrote in a report on Friday.
The bank forecasts prices will remain flat in 2013, before falling 5 percent in 2014 and another 5-15 percent in 2015.
(Read more: Are Singapore home prices about to ease, finally ?)
Southeast Asia's financial center is home to one of the most expensive real estate markets in the world. Prices have soared over 60 percent since mid-2009, spurred by low interest rates.
The outlook is based on expectations that short-term interest rates will begin their ascent in the second quarter of 2015, and rise 200 basis points over a period of six months. The pace of property price declines will be tied to the pace of interest rate rises, Song explained.
Singapore mortgage rates are typically pegged to the short-term three-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (SIBOR) rate, which tracks the direction of the U.S. federal funds rate.
Adding to higher mortgage rates, a bumper supply of private and public housing is due to complete starting in 2014.
(Read more: Household debt: Singapore's 'Achilles heel'?)
Almost 95,000 private units are expected to come on stream over the next five years, alongside 25,000-27,000 public housing flats per annum, according to the Urban Redevelopment Authority.
"Total housing supply could average 40,000 units per annum and peak at 47,000 in 2015 - significantly above the historical average annual supply of 12,300 units," Song said.
"Assuming occupier demand of 15,500 units of private housing per annum, we expect the private vacancy rate to rise from 5.6 percent currently to 9.9 percent in 2016," she added, noting that historically when vacancy rates hit 8 percent, rents and prices start declining.
(Read more: More pain to come for Singapore REITs?)
Home sales have begun softening as the government's cooling measures start to bite, with the latest monthly data showing developers sold 742 units in August, compared with an average of 1,000-1,500 units in the recent years, according to Barclays.
This year, the bank expects primary home sales to total 15,500 units, 30 percent below last year's 22,179 units.
The government has introduced nine rounds of market-cooling measures since 2009, most recently targeted at the public housing market, which house 80 percent of the country's citizens. The measures announced in August included shortening the maximum loan tenure to 25 years from 30 years, and reducing the mortgage ratio limit against the borrower's salary to 30 percent from 35 percent previously.
—By CNBC's Ansuya Harjani; Follow her on Twitter @Ansuya_H
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101067872
Singapore home prices could fall 20% by 2015: Barclays
Published: Friday, 27 Sep 2013 | 5:31 AM ET
By: Ansuya Harjani | Writer, CNBC Asia
Residential property prices in the wealthy island nation of Singapore could be headed for a sizable correction of up to 20 percent by 2015, according to Barclays.
"We believe the risk of a residential property market correction in the next two years is rising, as expected higher interest rates look set to coincide with a large increase in housing supply over 2014-15," Tricia Song, analyst at Barclays wrote in a report on Friday.
The bank forecasts prices will remain flat in 2013, before falling 5 percent in 2014 and another 5-15 percent in 2015.
(Read more: Are Singapore home prices about to ease, finally ?)
Southeast Asia's financial center is home to one of the most expensive real estate markets in the world. Prices have soared over 60 percent since mid-2009, spurred by low interest rates.
The outlook is based on expectations that short-term interest rates will begin their ascent in the second quarter of 2015, and rise 200 basis points over a period of six months. The pace of property price declines will be tied to the pace of interest rate rises, Song explained.
Singapore mortgage rates are typically pegged to the short-term three-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (SIBOR) rate, which tracks the direction of the U.S. federal funds rate.
Adding to higher mortgage rates, a bumper supply of private and public housing is due to complete starting in 2014.
(Read more: Household debt: Singapore's 'Achilles heel'?)
Almost 95,000 private units are expected to come on stream over the next five years, alongside 25,000-27,000 public housing flats per annum, according to the Urban Redevelopment Authority.
"Total housing supply could average 40,000 units per annum and peak at 47,000 in 2015 - significantly above the historical average annual supply of 12,300 units," Song said.
"Assuming occupier demand of 15,500 units of private housing per annum, we expect the private vacancy rate to rise from 5.6 percent currently to 9.9 percent in 2016," she added, noting that historically when vacancy rates hit 8 percent, rents and prices start declining.
(Read more: More pain to come for Singapore REITs?)
Home sales have begun softening as the government's cooling measures start to bite, with the latest monthly data showing developers sold 742 units in August, compared with an average of 1,000-1,500 units in the recent years, according to Barclays.
This year, the bank expects primary home sales to total 15,500 units, 30 percent below last year's 22,179 units.
The government has introduced nine rounds of market-cooling measures since 2009, most recently targeted at the public housing market, which house 80 percent of the country's citizens. The measures announced in August included shortening the maximum loan tenure to 25 years from 30 years, and reducing the mortgage ratio limit against the borrower's salary to 30 percent from 35 percent previously.
—By CNBC's Ansuya Harjani; Follow her on Twitter @Ansuya_H
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101067872
The funny thing is...... During a GLOBAL financial meltdown in 2008, prices only drop from the peak by 25%..... so now with full employment, low interest rates, no crisis yet, we are expected to drop 20%? What are the chances of this Happening?
the moral of the story is:
ccr will always be ccr :47:
thomastansb
13-12-13, 08:53
Hope CCR will rebound although I can't see that happening..
Depends where in CCR and price range.
Hope CCR will rebound although I can't see that happening..
First article is from property agencies, second article is from bank.
The former needs business, the latter is telling its borrowers to watch out, i.e. borrow at your own risk.
from just recent 2008 till now, what is percentage increases in general for sg property? so let say 20% drop as predicted in near future is it tolerable?
the moral of the story is:
ccr will always be ccr :47:
Just Jiao wei will always be Jiao wei regardless what new account name you use
A restart to base price is not impossible consider BTOs n hdb resale has taken d lead.
A restart to base price is not impossible consider BTOs n hdb resale has taken d lead.
Base Price? 1600 psf for Admour Park? Like in 1996 Peak!
Drop 40%? Lol I will be damn happy.... I will buy a few more....
buy alas it is impossible.....
ccr luxury 2k psf
Ccr high end 1500 psf
Ccr normal condo 1200 psf
RCR condo 900 psf
OCR condo 700 Psf?
Far flung ocr 550 Psf?
EC 400 psf
resale hdb 200 psf
Bto 100 Psf?
Like that ah Oops?
Just Jiao wei will always be Jiao wei regardless what new account name you use
dun worry, I wun be offended, cos ppl noe how sore u r feeling right now.
not many ppl can see their investment still being the most pricey OCR project with no one to break the record yet still laughing away :47:
Hope CCR will rebound although I can't see that happening..
Remove ABSD n TDSR n CCR will chiong lol
Remove ABSD n TDSR n CCR will chiong lol
but ppty prices will chiong even faster! lol!
dun worry, I wun be offended, cos ppl noe how sore u r feeling right now.
not many ppl can see their investment still being the most pricey OCR project with no one to break the record yet still laughing away :47:
wrong again. J Gateway is not the most price OCR property. told you dont kong jiao wei liao
Just paint a scenario: US recovery and follow by EU recovery. Interest rate increase gradually but not suddenly back to 5%. China, Japan, South Korea will boom. What do you think of Singapore economy and property market?
Base Price? 1600 psf for Admour Park? Like in 1996 Peak!
Drop 40%? Lol I will be damn happy.... I will buy a few more....
buy alas it is impossible.....
ccr luxury 2k psf
Ccr high end 1500 psf
Ccr normal condo 1200 psf
RCR condo 900 psf
OCR condo 700 Psf?
Far flung ocr 550 Psf?
EC 400 psf
resale hdb 200 psf
Bto 100 Psf?
Like that ah Oops?
Technically CCR should recover in normal circumstances, but we are living in extraordinary times with CMs.
Foreigner investors interested in buying more than 1 unit are weed out by government.
CCR will only be propped by if there are new super high pay jobs attracting first time foreigner buyers, which can happen with improved global fundamentals.
smellyfish
13-12-13, 11:56
people seeking yield will also not find them in CCR. The downtown area of bugis, raffles and tanjong pagar are too expensive to offer good yields, wihlst the Orchard, holland, bukit timah are more your leafy school districts which means nothing to the vast majority of Singapore's mid range migrant workers.
people looking for a self financing asset should look elsewhere...
people seeking yield will also not find them in CCR. The downtown area of bugis, raffles and tanjong pagar are too expensive to offer good yields, wihlst the Orchard, holland, bukit timah are more your leafy school districts which means nothing to the vast majority of Singapore's mid range migrant workers.
people looking for a self financing asset should look elsewhere...
And this is despite low int rates. Jia lat
A restart to base price is not impossible consider BTOs n hdb resale has taken d lead.
very possible that it will drop 20% or more as mentioned by article?
considering One of the scenerios only:
- the roll out of all those new condo completed in the market at 2015....
- rental demand optimistic or pessimistic will depend on tenant demand vs condo supply, how good is it ? 2015 is also an important year for those above 18 yrs old Sgrean too...first time to tick at the box on card...
- rental yield goes low? refinancing not possible due to TDSR as most of the condo bought high that are due for completion are bought before TDSR?
- QE at 2015? interest rate?
if int goes high and cannot refinance due to TDSR..want to sell?
but CMs and condo supply restricting foreign n local buyers (again TDSR) to buy at good price?
so How?
Sell low lo.....how low as many want to sell? .undercut each others lo? 20% drop achieved...
walkthetiger
13-12-13, 20:11
very possible that it will drop 20% or more as mentioned by article?
considering One of the scenerios only:
- the roll out of all those new condo completed in the market at 2015....
- rental demand optimistic or pessimistic will depend on tenant demand vs condo supply, how good is it ? 2015 is also an important year for those above 18 yrs old Sgrean too...first time to tick at the box on card...
- rental yield goes low? refinancing not possible due to TDSR as most of the condo bought high that are due for completion are bought before TDSR?
- QE at 2015? interest rate?
if int goes high and cannot refinance due to TDSR..want to sell?
but CMs and condo supply restricting foreign n local buyers (again TDSR) to buy at good price?
so How?
Sell low lo.....how low as many want to sell? .undercut each others lo? 20% drop achieved...
For remaining ones who are hanging on, especially those "half baked" project, just one word "good luck" to you, you are going to feel stuck for years. Take care...
very possible that it will drop 20% or more as mentioned by article?
considering One of the scenerios only:
- the roll out of all those new condo completed in the market at 2015....
- rental demand optimistic or pessimistic will depend on tenant demand vs condo supply, how good is it ? 2015 is also an important year for those above 18 yrs old Sgrean too...first time to tick at the box on card...
- rental yield goes low? refinancing not possible due to TDSR as most of the condo bought high that are due for completion are bought before TDSR?
- QE at 2015? interest rate?
if int goes high and cannot refinance due to TDSR..want to sell?
but CMs and condo supply restricting foreign n local buyers (again TDSR) to buy at good price?
so How?
Sell low lo.....how low as many want to sell? .undercut each others lo? 20% drop achieved...
great news to buyers if that happens.
walkthetiger
14-12-13, 19:34
great news to buyers if that happens.
Haha….the best bargain has yet to come…
At least, it’s worth to wait to see the 1st wave of frantic sell, from the few middle class hang on but finally decided to let go their "half baked" investment properties.
The best bargain for sellers has yet to come!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Don't any how sell now, wait till after 2016 and they will be rewarded! :cheers4:
Haha….the best bargain has yet to come…
At least, it’s worth to wait to see the 1st wave of frantic sell, from the few middle class hang on but finally decided to let go their "half baked" investment properties.
walkthetiger
14-12-13, 20:09
The best bargain for sellers has yet to come!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Don't any how sell now, wait till after 2016 and they will be rewarded! :cheers4:
Agree with you too...I also hope to see the best bargain to happen just before 2016 election...
Not everybody can survive the worst, especially 2016 election is two years from now, the many common folks will lose faith easily and give up before that, as they did not foresee the CMs before they invest during the high, with this current sentiment many of them will wish to break even or even by making just some thousands profit will make them very happy.
At least, it’s worth to wait to see the 1st wave of frantic sell, from the few middle class hang on but finally decided to let go their "half baked" investment properties.
Hi, sorry if I sound stupid, how to define a "half baked" investment property?
:beats-me-man:
Hi, sorry if I sound stupid, how to define a "half baked" investment property?
:beats-me-man:
issit 半生熟? :o
There is no need to give up lah, because interest rate still very low, and unlikely to go up much for next 3 years.........................
Holding on will make more money from rental yield - interest rate difference..........................
Agree with you too...I also hope to see the best bargain to happen just before 2016 election...
Not everybody can survive the worst, especially 2016 election is two years from now, the many common folks will lose faith easily and give up before that, as they did not foresee the CMs before they invest during the high, with this current sentiment many of them will wish to break even or even by making just some thousands profit will make them very happy.
walkthetiger
14-12-13, 23:45
Hi, sorry if I sound stupid, how to define a "half baked" investment property?
:beats-me-man:
no potential
The funny thing is...... During a GLOBAL financial meltdown in 2008, prices only drop from the peak by 25%..... so now with full employment, low interest rates, no crisis yet, we are expected to drop 20%? What are the chances of this Happening?
That time, Singaporean are not so heavily in debt.. Now we are.. If you buy the house with cash, who cares about what global financial crisis... Now even the government is worry about the debt ratio which mean it is quite serious. Or else why the government come out with all the rules to control loan. To solve housing issues, just restrict HDB will do. Why care about the PC?
Haha….the best bargain has yet to come…
At least, it’s worth to wait to see the 1st wave of frantic sell, from the few middle class hang on but finally decided to let go their "half baked" investment properties.
Like I always said, not all CCR properties can be called PRIME, just like not every USA produced beef can be call PRIME.
So if those who bought a half baked apartment and thinking that they have bought an "highend" condo in CCR are going to get really disappointed when they starts to see their rental and value falling and property taxes rising as a result of the new tax formula.
Having said that, I dont expect panic selling or sudden price decline in today's CM-festeds environment, what we are most likely to see is a stagnated and slow decline CCR market, especially for those >$3m apartments.
The best bargain for sellers has yet to come!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Don't any how sell now, wait till after 2016 and they will be rewarded! :cheers4:
If you slow boil a frog in a pot of water, he will not noticed he is going to get burn.
So the morale of the story is that, you wont know how badly burn you are until you get out of it.
How much have you CCR property gain over the past 5 years of low interest environment? And if expat housing budget or salary doesnt rise in a big way, and if interest rate would to rise in 2016, how do you expect property prices in CCR to rise?
Plus, with the government going after "rich man tax" (as we can see from the recent property tax policy) and the numbers CMs in placed, what are you going to expect from PAP to boost CCR property prices??
Honestly, if any government policy that can help boost property prices, it will be the OCR that will gain most, not CCR.
With HDB prices going off the boil. OCR properties are going to be hit bad. Those that bought recently aren't very wise. The good thing is the need of more CMs is hence reduced.
The segment that is least affected by HDB upgrader are CCR. That doesn't mean CCR will see prices going up now, but is less likely to see a bigger correction than OCR in the future.
Should interest rate return to 3.5% or more and CMs be removed someday. The prime beneficiary would also be CCR.
If you slow boil a frog in a pot of water, he will not noticed he is going to get burn.
So the morale of the story is that, you wont know how badly burn you are until you get out of it.
How much have you CCR property gain over the past 5 years of low interest environment? And if expat housing budget or salary doesnt rise in a big way, and if interest rate would to rise in 2016, how do you expect property prices in CCR to rise?
Plus, with the government going after "rich man tax" (as we can see from the recent property tax policy) and the numbers CMs in placed, what are you going to expect from PAP to boost CCR property prices??
Honestly, if any government policy that can help boost property prices, it will be the OCR that will gain most, not CCR.
Are you saying that with the steep run up in ocr prices these last three years, ocr prices will Continue to increase while ccr will continue to slowly decline? So tanah merah become 1700 Psf? Jurong lake district area become 2000 psf? And river valley, holland condo becomes 1400 Psf due to slow Decline o e the next two Years?
walkthetiger
15-12-13, 10:27
Are you saying that with the steep run up in ocr prices these last three years, ocr prices will Continue to increase while ccr will continue to slowly decline? So tanah merah become 1700 Psf? Jurong lake district area become 2000 psf? And river valley, holland condo becomes 1400 Psf due to slow Decline o e the next two Years?
Everything is relative...MM, PC, OCR, CCR or HDB...whatever you like to call it... Many disbelieved me when I told them that gov here will not going to let this place becoming like HK.
With the current sentiment, a slow painful decline could be equally fearful, especially if you can't tell how long it going to end, yet if you only have a very limited holding power on something you know doesn’t have good potential as well. In their shoes, I will depose ASAP grabbing the little profit, as this is still a win. Btw, just for sharing; I had just sold the “not so good one” to a folk who is still dreaming of capital appreciation/rental income 20-30 years later, that one I have mistakenly bought in recent years of course.
To me, I view the property investment here now is going back to where it should belong, going back to the fundamentals, a good product in good location then I will hold.
Are you saying that with the steep run up in ocr prices these last three years, ocr prices will Continue to increase while ccr will continue to slowly decline? So tanah merah become 1700 Psf? Jurong lake district area become 2000 psf? And river valley, holland condo becomes 1400 Psf due to slow Decline o e the next two Years?
Really depends what and how you are comparing.
It terms of peak price, CCR are already hitting >$4000psf in some development while within CCR, you can still find some <$1500psf.
And the same for OCR, peak prices are touching $1700-$2000psf, while you still find development at $<1000psf.
Like I said many times before, not all CCR properties are prime, so you cant expect all CCR property to be priced similar to property along Paterson.
Where are the good products in good zones?
Everything is relative...MM, PC, OCR, CCR or HDB...whatever you like to call it... Many disbelieved me when I told them that gov here will not going to let this place becoming like HK.
With the current sentiment, a slow painful decline could be equally fearful, especially if you can't tell how long it going to end, yet if you only have a very limited holding power on something you know doesn’t have good potential as well. In their shoes, I will depose ASAP grabbing the little profit, as this is still a win. Btw, just for sharing; I had just sold the “not so good one” to a folk who is still dreaming of capital appreciation/rental income 20-30 years later, that one I have mistakenly bought in recent years of course.
To me, I view the property investment here now is going back to where it should belong, going back to the fundamentals, a good product in good location then I will hold.
With HDB prices going off the boil. OCR properties are going to be hit bad. Those that bought recently aren't very wise. The good thing is the need of more CMs is hence reduced.
The segment that is least affected by HDB upgrader are CCR. That doesn't mean CCR will see prices going up now, but is less likely to see a bigger correction than OCR in the future.
Should interest rate return to 3.5% or more and CMs be removed someday. The prime beneficiary would also be CCR.
a) The difference in HDB COV is around $20-30K, 0and that is not going to make or break the property market.
b) Even in today's low interest environment, large quantum CCR units area already struggling to find buyer, when interest rate double or triple to 3.5%, how are you going to attract buyer back into CCR?
You are a novice, that is why you don't understand.
Just give you a scenario: If expat housing budget or salary doesn't rise, I will drop my CCR property rental until they bite. Once they bite, you can kiss your OCR property rental goodbye. A good example is HillView are during the heydays, drop until $1200 pm for a 3rm unit also no rental while our CCR property continue to get rented out (at the expense of rental amount). Don't say I never tell you so............................. :o
Why did we drop CCR rental if we can hold without rental? To teach people like you a lesson and also to recover the costs transferred to us by the govt! Ha ha ha! However, if all of you buy CCR properties, then we can't play this game anymore! :doh:
If you slow boil a frog in a pot of water, he will not noticed he is going to get burn.
So the morale of the story is that, you wont know how badly burn you are until you get out of it.
How much have you CCR property gain over the past 5 years of low interest environment? And if expat housing budget or salary doesnt rise in a big way, and if interest rate would to rise in 2016, how do you expect property prices in CCR to rise?
Plus, with the government going after "rich man tax" (as we can see from the recent property tax policy) and the numbers CMs in placed, what are you going to expect from PAP to boost CCR property prices??
Honestly, if any government policy that can help boost property prices, it will be the OCR that will gain most, not CCR.
You are a novice, that is why you don't understand.
Just give you a scenario: If expat housing budget or salary doesn't rise, I will drop my CCR property rental until they bite. Once they bite, you can kiss your OCR property rental goodbye. A good example is HillView are during the heydays, drop until $1200 pm for a 3rm unit also no rental while our CCR property continue to get rented out (at the expense of rental amount). Don't say I never tell you so............................. :o
Why did we drop CCR rental if we can hold without rental? To teach people like you a lesson and also to recover the costs transferred to us by the govt! Ha ha ha! However, if all of you buy CCR properties, then we can't play this game anymore! :doh:
Thats exactly what has been happening now, and with rental falling, there is no reason why people would be rushing in to buy.
As for OCR rental is concerned, I think we all know that it still offer a much better yield than CCR and with international schools moving out of CCR, it will sure bring along a huge expat community with it. Do say I never tell you.
International schools moving to OCR means expats will move to OCR? Ha ha ha! Let me tell you the cold hard truth: My tenants told my agent their kids' international schools moving, but they will be staying put at similar location and they are already looking for alternative international schools. If can't find, they will get a school bus to fetch them there and back!
School buses businesses will flourish - Never say I never tell you! :D
OCR is always like this, better yield -> ZERO yield !
Ask yourself, can you survive with ZERO yield for how many years for investment properties? (especially now you can't claim property tax rebate for vacant investment properties? CM for CCR properties only? You want to count ratio of OCR properties to CCR properties, is it like 8:1? How many OCR investment properties will be badly hit because they can't claim property tax rebate for vacancy + no rental income?!) :doh:
Thats exactly what has been happening now, and with rental falling, there is no reason why people would be rushing in to buy.
As for OCR rental is concerned, I think we all know that it still offer a much better yield than CCR and with international schools moving out of CCR, it will sure bring along a huge expat community with it. Do say I never tell you.
a) The difference in HDB COV is around $20-30K, 0and that is not going to make or break the property market.
b) Even in today's low interest environment, large quantum CCR units area already struggling to find buyer, when interest rate double or triple to 3.5%, how are you going to attract buyer back into CCR?
The ONE reason OCR prices hitting the roof is because of HDB prices. Once HDB starts to decline, which it is happening, OCR is in trouble. Lower COV is just the beginning.
CM which was meant to cool the market has an unintended effect of affecting CCR more. CM that are permanent, are targeting borderline buyers, HDB upgrader for example. While CM that are temporary affects the foreigners and buyers with plenty to spare. And these temp CM will be lifted when things normalised.
Singapore is by far the easiest place to rent out a property. Yield is just part of the story for truly wealthy people.
International schools moving to OCR means expats will move to OCR? Ha ha ha! Let me tell you the cold hard truth: My tenants told my agent their kids' international schools moving, but they will be staying put at similar location and they are already looking for alternative international schools. If can't find, they will get a school bus to fetch them there and back!
School buses businesses will flourish - Never say I never tell you! :D
OCR is always like this, better yield -> ZERO yield !
Ask yourself, can you survive with ZERO yield for how many years for investment properties? (especially now you can't claim property tax rebate for vacant investment properties? CM for CCR properties only? You want to count ratio of OCR properties to CCR properties, is it like 8:1? How many OCR investment properties will be badly hit because they can't claim property tax rebate for vacancy + no rental income?!) :doh:
Perhaps you should give good explanation on why many Amercian expat families are living around woodlands, Japanese expat living around West coast, and international community living around JLD ever since Canadian International Schools open its door in Jurong West?
Perhaps these families are not aware of something call school buses and MRT.
The ONE reason OCR prices hitting the roof is because of HDB prices. Once HDB starts to decline, which it is happening, OCR is in trouble. Lower COV is just the beginning.
CM which was meant to cool the market has an unintended effect of affecting CCR more. CM that are permanent, are targeting borderline buyers, HDB upgrader for example. While CM that are temporary affects the foreigners and buyers with plenty to spare. And these temp CM will be lifted when things normalised.
Singapore is by far the easiest place to rent out a property. Yield is just part of the story for truly wealthy people.
HDB prices effect applies to property across Singapore, its not just confined to OCR. IMO the main reason why OCR property prices are rising is because of government's decentralization effort, e.g. commercial hubs, international schools, malls, mrt etc, and developers downsizing new developments. With government continual push to expand MRT network, particularly around OCR area, there is no reason to believe that OCR prices will not continue to rise in the next 10 to 15 years. Of course we cant expect it to rise at the same pace as before due to CMs.
Really depends what and how you are comparing.
It terms of peak price, CCR are already hitting >$4000psf in some development while within CCR, you can still find some <$1500psf.
And the same for OCR, peak prices are touching $1700-$2000psf, while you still find development at $<1000psf.
Like I said many times before, not all CCR properties are prime, so you cant expect all CCR property to be priced similar to property along Paterson.
Thats when CCR still house all business activities, looking at it now where more and more business r moving to jurong lake district, changi business park and the coming woodlands regional center, do u think the expat still stay in CCR just so they can travel an hour or two to work?
Thats when CCR still house all business activities, looking at it now where more and more business r moving to jurong lake district, changi business park and the coming woodlands regional center, do u think the expat still stay in CCR just so they can travel an hour or two to work?
The most reliable tale sign is when you start to see certain up market retailers, cafe and restaurant moving to OCR because their business decision is based on facts instead of "my tenant want to send their kids to school in a bus"
Have to agree with you on your points.
Most CMs have unintended effects of cooling CCR properties, but think about it - You think govt will want to cool CCR properties so that foreigners can buy CHEAP CHEAP at the expense of local buyers and property developers? Because of all the money printing, govt got no choice! Once all these money printing dies down, most of these CMs introduced to negate the effect of money printing will be removed.
CMs introduced to cool HDB prices is a must do job for govt - because HDB flats are public housing and it must be within the affordability of the 95% of singapore citizens! Because govt act a bit late, that is why HDB resale prices almost hit $1m ! But this is going to be history, at least, for the next 10 years! And because HDB resale prices escalated and hence HDB new launch escalated, OCR private properties hit the roof (easy to upgrade and exchange HDB resale to OCR private mah)! (Again, this is going to be history, at least, for the next 10 years!).
All those CMs targeting affordability etc like MSR, TDSR are here to stay for sure. Who is likely to be affected by all these MSR and TDSR? You think is OCR buyers or CCR buyers? The answer is very obvious. Now knowing the answer, if you can afford both OCR and CCR, which will you choose? (But if you can only afford OCR, then too bad, and obviously your answer may be biased). :tsk-tsk:
The ONE reason OCR prices hitting the roof is because of HDB prices. Once HDB starts to decline, which it is happening, OCR is in trouble. Lower COV is just the beginning.
CM which was meant to cool the market has an unintended effect of affecting CCR more. CM that are permanent, are targeting borderline buyers, HDB upgrader for example. While CM that are temporary affects the foreigners and buyers with plenty to spare. And these temp CM will be lifted when things normalised.
Singapore is by far the easiest place to rent out a property. Yield is just part of the story for truly wealthy people.
Decentralization only happen in Singapore?
Look at whole of London, about the same size as Singapore. Did decentralization helps the Zone 4? Mind you, UK already linked up all zones with MRT, and Singapore is just planning! :doh:
And did we UK Zone 4 property near MRT selling at same or higher price than Zone 1 property that is further from MRT?
London is ahead of Singapore by 50 years! It is our guide! :rolleyes:
HDB prices effect applies to property across Singapore, its not just confined to OCR. IMO the main reason why OCR property prices are rising is because of government's decentralization effort, e.g. commercial hubs, international schools, malls, mrt etc, and developers downsizing new developments. With government continual push to expand MRT network, particularly around OCR area, there is no reason to believe that OCR prices will not continue to rise in the next 10 to 15 years. Of course we cant expect it to rise at the same pace as before due to CMs.
Decentralization only happen in Singapore?
Look at whole of London, about the same size as Singapore. Did decentralization helps the Zone 4? Mind you, UK already linked up all zones with MRT, and Singapore is just planning! :doh:
And did we UK Zone 4 property near MRT selling at same or higher price than Zone 1 property that is further from MRT?
London is ahead of Singapore by 50 years! It is our guide! :rolleyes:
1) I am not sure, you should tell us if decentralization only happen in Singapore
2) Is London a country of a city of a big country?
3) London is ahead by Singapore by 50 years? Say who? AFAIK, we didnt wait for 50 years to build Singapore flyer, neither did we wait for London to host F1 before we came up with Singapore GP.
4) If London is out guide, then its better to sell our Singapore property now.
Have you thought of your explanation on why Americans community are living in woodlands?
Have to agree with you on your points.
Most CMs have unintended effects of cooling CCR properties, but think about it - You think govt will want to cool CCR properties so that foreigners can buy CHEAP CHEAP at the expense of local buyers and property developers? Because of all the money printing, govt got no choice! Once all these money printing dies down, most of these CMs introduced to negate the effect of money printing will be removed.
CMs introduced to cool HDB prices is a must do job for govt - because HDB flats are public housing and it must be within the affordability of the 95% of singapore citizens! Because govt act a bit late, that is why HDB resale prices almost hit $1m ! But this is going to be history, at least, for the next 10 years! And because HDB resale prices escalated and hence HDB new launch escalated, OCR private properties hit the roof (easy to upgrade and exchange HDB resale to OCR private mah)! (Again, this is going to be history, at least, for the next 10 years!).
All those CMs targeting affordability etc like MSR, TDSR are here to stay for sure. Who is likely to be affected by all these MSR and TDSR? You think is OCR buyers or CCR buyers? The answer is very obvious. Now knowing the answer, if you can afford both OCR and CCR, which will you choose? (But if you can only afford OCR, then too bad, and obviously your answer may be biased). :tsk-tsk:
I think you are making one silly assumption, and that is that people living in HDB and OCR doesnt buy private property in CCR.
CCR is always CCR
look at this plan and see where are the blue colors concentrated
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MJ3XbmtTN4Y/UQo_d0YjwsI/AAAAAAAA7-E/n5rXoJXQITE/s1600/hme_our_land_use_plan_org.jpg
Really depends what and how you are comparing.
It terms of peak price, CCR are already hitting >$4000psf in some development while within CCR, you can still find some <$1500psf.
And the same for OCR, peak prices are touching $1700-$2000psf, while you still find development at $<1000psf.
Like I said many times before, not all CCR properties are prime, so you cant expect all CCR property to be priced similar to property along Paterson.
So will ccr continue to decline and ocr Continue to increase in prices due to Decentralization?
a) The difference in HDB COV is around $20-30K, 0and that is not going to make or break the property market.
b) Even in today's low interest environment, large quantum CCR units area already struggling to find buyer, when interest rate double or triple to 3.5%, how are you going to attract buyer back into CCR?
I dare say that ccr is quiet at this time is because of ABSD and not because of TDSR and interest rates.... The moment you remove ABSD, ccr will have Acton liao. But of ocr, the factors affecting the prices are more TDSR and interest rates....
Majority if ccr buyers either have more than one property or foreign buyers hence ABSD is the killer..... I am v v sure it is not because of TDSR and interest rates and most buyers are not marginal upgrades and down payment much higher so high interest rate impact not so great...
so unless some ocr developments become investment grade property, will always have issue of affordability of buyers as majority are upgraders.
I know of someone wanted to collateral ed their property for Loa n this private bank say they only accept property in downtown core and 9 10 11, this is a European private bank
walkthetiger
15-12-13, 14:00
Where are the good products in good zones?
Price also matters, of course, if you have planned to sell off your properties at ridiculous prices, do let me know, I maybe your potential buyer, despite zones and lowest grade product.
R33 has his way of defining too, assume you are aware, your choice to believe, right?
CCR is always CCR
look at this plan and see where are the blue colors concentrated
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MJ3XbmtTN4Y/UQo_d0YjwsI/AAAAAAAA7-E/n5rXoJXQITE/s1600/hme_our_land_use_plan_org.jpg
good point.... I think w this masterplan, it will settle the discussion once and for all
Bro. My principle is mainly buy to keep. Hve not sold any yet as both capital gain and rental yield are still good. Searching for good buy too but very few these days.
Price also matters, of course, if you have planned to sell off your properties at ridiculous prices, do let me know, I maybe your potential buyer, despite zones and lowest grade product.
R33 has his way of defining too, assume you are aware, your choice to believe, right?
Bro. My principle is mainly buy to keep. Hve not sold any yet as both capital gain and rental yield are still good. Searching for good buy too but very few these days.
I agree totally....
u less you are very sharp and can enter and exit the market quickly and swiftly, or else better to us and keep, esp FH, can't go wrong with singapore hitting 10m by 2050
walkthetiger
15-12-13, 14:54
I agree totally....
u less you are very sharp and can enter and exit the market quickly and swiftly, or else better to us and keep, esp FH, can't go wrong with singapore hitting 10m by 2050
It is hard to resist not selling; knowingly the best profit is now but not later. Of course, it depends on your holding power and your purchased price. Full respect to your investment method.
But, even if you really wish to sell now at current high market price, it is not easy either. I have gone thru it, for that "not so good property" mentioned earlier, took me 6 months to fish that rare drunken folk.
At one point of time, I almost gave up.
Just imagine if u sell your landed property 10 years ago. I will regret if i have done that as i was sharing with R33 that it has gone many times in the last 40 years.
It is hard to resist not selling; knowingly the best profit is now but not later. Of course, it depends on your holding power and your purchased price. Full respect to your investment method.
But, even if you really wish to sell now at current high market price, it is not easy either. I have gone thru it, for that "not so good property" mentioned earlier, took me 6 months to fish that rare drunken folk.
At one point of time, I almost gave up.
walkthetiger
15-12-13, 16:04
Just imagine if u sell your landed property 10 years ago. I will regret if i have done that as i was sharing with R33 that it has gone many times in the last 40 years.
Some of my investments bought long long time ago; already sitting on huge profit, so there is no need to sell now.
That landed one is my home, spacious and beautiful to my sense, definitely not for sale, too much memory attached as well.
Yup. Landed is for own stay. It gives me the opportunity to be involved in the redesign of my place.
Some of my investments bought long long time ago; already sitting on huge profit, so there is no need to sell now.
That landed one is my home, spacious and beautiful to my sense, definitely not for sale, too much memory attached as well.
So will ccr continue to decline and ocr Continue to increase in prices due to Decentralization?
Like I have been saying, you cannot generalize all property within CCR because within CCR, there are some that are selling at above 4000psf and some below 1500psf, so you will need to be specific in what you are talking about as not all CCR property are prime or under the radar of the super rich.
As for OCR, I think with the number of new MRT stations that are going to be build in the next 10 to 15 years, i would have reason to believe that price of OCR property will remain resilient.
I agree totally....
u less you are very sharp and can enter and exit the market quickly and swiftly, or else better to us and keep, esp FH, can't go wrong with singapore hitting 10m by 2050
2050 ... that's a very long time. Perhaps by that time, global warming has taken its toll, ice caps melted and the northern sea shipping route becomes the norm, resulting in declining shipping volumes via SG port. All the infrastructure we have built will be in surplus. Asset price will decline once there isn't enough work or money to support the price.
Somewhat similar to the fate of Malacca .. eh.
Just a thought.
proud owner
15-12-13, 23:52
I dare say that ccr is quiet at this time is because of ABSD and not because of TDSR and interest rates.... The moment you remove ABSD, ccr will have Acton liao. But of ocr, the factors affecting the prices are more TDSR and interest rates....
Majority if ccr buyers either have more than one property or foreign buyers hence ABSD is the killer..... I am v v sure it is not because of TDSR and interest rates and most buyers are not marginal upgrades and down payment much higher so high interest rate impact not so great...
so unless some ocr developments become investment grade property, will always have issue of affordability of buyers as majority are upgraders.
I know of someone wanted to collateral ed their property for Loa n this private bank say they only accept property in downtown core and 9 10 11, this is a European private bank
I agree with your first point ...
as to the point that 1 European private bank only accept property in downtown core and 9 10 11 ...
I also know of another non Asian bank ... keeps offering a collateralized loan to a friend's whose property is a bungalow in D19 not serangoon gardens, not kovan ... but upp paya lebar ...
so your last point is not valid ...
2050 ... that's a very long time. Perhaps by that time, global warming has taken its toll, ice caps melted and the northern sea shipping route becomes the norm, resulting in declining shipping volumes via SG port. All the infrastructure we have built will be in surplus. Asset price will decline once there isn't enough work or money to support the price.
Somewhat similar to the fate of Malacca .. eh.
Just a thought.
it means 100k new residents a year x 40 years and we have 10m....
so with the constant influx of people the housing demand will be there...
15k marriage per year plus let's say 80k new residents per year, so easily we need 30k new housing units per year...
Ccr, downtown core, jld, and other prime ocr locations super near to good MRT lines with abundant amenities are going to be limited. So don't sell if you have a unit in these super prime location
smellyfish
16-12-13, 09:54
dont assume SG will just continue to attract immigrants without respite. Things are moving, the enemies are getting stronger each day, there is a darkness here that is creeping underneath, and which threatened to boil over...sorry LOTR season...
but frankly, the banks and MNCs are as much moving things out as they are moving things in these days. be careful what you wish for...
dont assume SG will just continue to attract immigrants without respite. Things are moving, the enemies are getting stronger each day, there is a darkness here that is creeping underneath, and which threatened to boil over...sorry LOTR season...
but frankly, the banks and MNCs are as much moving things out as they are moving things in these days. be careful what you wish for...
If we don't managed to attract them to come we will be doomed.... The masterplan has so many new areas for new commercial and residential areas..... and the buildings that are soon to be completed means we are expected to attract them here or else serious oversupply...
If we don't managed to attract them to come we will be doomed.... The masterplan has so many new areas for new commercial and residential areas..... and the buildings that are soon to be completed means we are expected to attract them here or else serious oversupply...
You are right. There is indeed many new land supply around the marina and southern coast line that will be made available for development over the next 10 to 15 year.
Having said that, I dont think it is going to be easy for the government to just open up the flood gate for foreigners as Singapore high cost of business can only afford to attract high value businesses to set up offices within CBD.
URA will be releasing their GLSs program for 1H2014 soon, so that should give us an indication about how bullish they are in terms of commercial space with CBD.
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