View Full Version : Market may correct in 2015/6: forum
princess_morbucks
13-11-13, 07:41
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/premium/top-stories/market-may-correct-20156-forum-20131113
[SINGAPORE] The property market here could correct significantly in 2015 or 2016, when higher interest rates are expected to coincide with a large increase in housing supply, economists said yesterday.
Making presentations at the 20th Singapore Economic Roundtable, they indentified this as one of several medium-term challenges and risks confronting the Singapore economy, the others being over-leveraging in certain household segments, lower cost-competitiveness and obstacles to productivity growth.
The forum, jointly organised by the Institute of Policy Studies and The Business Times, is held twice a year under the Chatham House Rule - under which participants agree to keep each other's views anonymous to promote frank debate.
Agree that this is a likely scenario. However this has already been considered and taken into account with all the cooling measures and tdsr implemented. Question will be the magnitude of correction that is permissible. Should the magnitude be large, the appropriate absd will be removed to recalibrate the market. Unless the market drops rapidly due to external factors.
[SINGAPORE] The property market here could correct significantly in 2015 or 2016, when higher interest rates are expected to coincide with a large increase in housing supply, economists said yesterday.
Making presentations at the 20th Singapore Economic Roundtable, they indentified this as
one of several medium-term challenges and risks confronting the Singapore economy, the others being over-leveraging in certain household segments, lower cost-competitiveness and obstacles to productivity growth.
The forum, jointly organised by the Institute of Policy Studies and The Business Times, is held twice a year under the Chatham House Rule - under which participants agree to keep each other's views anonymous to promote frank debate.
The event attracted more than 30 academics, private-sector economists and policymakers.
Citi economist Kit Wei Zheng said that property prices are likely to fall 10 to 15 per cent over the cycle in the next few years, which could materially reduce households' net worth.
The discussant for his presentation, Barclays economist Joey Chew, said she expected an even larger correction - 20 to 30 per cent in 2015 and 2016, which is when the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise its interest rate after tapering off quantitative easing.
But Mr Kit said that the housing supply in the pipeline should not be under-estimated, noting that the potential private housing supply till 2017 has risen to 32 per cent of the existing stock of private residential units. This will push vacancy rates up, especially since population growth is slowing.
Ms Chew estimated that vacancy rates could surge to more than 10 per cent in 2015 and 2016 amid curbs on foreign demand, given that the secondary market has weakened following the government's multiple rounds of macro-prudential measures to cool the property market.
On the demand side, overall home ownership levels have risen to 90 per cent from the 10-year low of 87 per cent at the end of 2010. This suggests that pent-up demand for housing to live in has already been met, Mr Kit added.
Both economists noted that the risks of rapidly rising household debt in Singapore are ameliorated by the fact that households are not just asset-rich but also cash-rich, but Mr Kit noted that property has accounted for almost 80 per cent of the growth in household net worth since 2006. "It follows that a fall in property prices in the next few years would also erode household net worth significantly," said Mr Kit.
Also, the distribution of debts and assets may be important: Recent figures from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Credit Bureau show that rising debt burdens among those in their 30s to 50s and debt levels rising past the peak income age of 50 may signal that individuals are borrowing on their assets. If such loans are being used for investment properties, that could amplify the downward pressure on prices, said Mr Kit.
One participant pointed out that MAS has said that it is prepared to unwind some of the measures introduced when the property market cools, although others, such as the total debt servicing ratio, are longer-term ones to ensure prudent lending.
But others said that reversing such demand measures, while necessary, may be insufficient. One participant said: "Once a condo is built, the supply is there. It's not clear to me that investor demand will come back; immigration policies are being tightened.
Another said: "I'm not sure how much the government can do to support the market. It's already reached a bubble situation. I'm not sure how much can be unwound."
princess_morbucks
13-11-13, 08:07
Thanks ringo for the full article!
You must have a great interest in business to subscribe to the business times ;)!
Thanks Ringo for the full report.
Downside risk is certainly getting bigger. Like someone mentioned, how much can be unwound... and fast enough? The question is... is there a bubble and how much air is allowed to escape before it's enough. Only the government who has all the figures dynamically know the answer.
my concern is more of wat if mkt did not correct significantly in 2015/2016 ... wat's the probability of tis happening?
well, there are experts who think the issue of oversupply is overblown too (reported in the week before last papers). coupled with the fact that US rates are likely to remain low for a decade (and EU slashed their rates by 25points just a few days ago), it is very likely that the low-interest rate scenario will be here to stay.
ever since 2011, experts had been and is still predicting the market to correct in the subsequent years. but till now, history has proven them wrong
well, there are experts who think the issue of oversupply is overblown too (reported in the week before last papers). coupled with the fact that US rates are likely to remain low for a decade (and EU slashed their rates by 25points just a few days ago), it is very likely that the low-interest rate scenario will be here to stay.
ever since 2011, experts had been and is still predicting the market to correct in the subsequent years. but till now, history has proven them wrong
Yes I agree. This is just a way that the gov is micro managing expectation. Overly bullish attitude is not healthy for the economy. That's why bear columnists is never out of job, they are needed to voice concerns from time to time. While it is the gov job to get a balance economy, it is not my job. My job is to make money.
princess_morbucks
13-11-13, 09:26
I don't think there will be a bubble bursting unless, if for some reason, foreigners stop coming top Singapore.
Hence we need to continue our population growth.
If interest rate goes up, most prudent home owners should be able to weather it, esp with the present tdsr.
The ones that will be most affected will be the ones who are highly leveraged with multiple properties.
As for rental, as long as foreigners keep coming in, the demand for rental will be there.
As the supply of private housing is increasing, as long as more foreigners are coming in, there will always be a demand for rental.
So even if supply is more than demand, there may not be a significant decrease in rental.
Hence there will not be any bubble bursting, if any, it will just be a small drop in prices and demand for rental.
Therefore, the location of the property is of prime concern.
When buying investment property, think very carefully of who your potential tenants will be, what the surroundings has to offer,before making the purchase.
i think the prices will not go anywhere. Everyone seems to be numb with numbers now.
The Title and Thread is certainly Deja Vu for many.
Since late 2010, this has been predicted repeatedly not just in this forum but in many other platforms/websites online. Now in Late 2013, many of the asking prices for resale properties are still at all time high. For the smaller units, still very difficult to negotiate prices right now from all time high. No doubt vol has dropped and there were some losses as highlighted in the CCR losses thread but these are still far and few compared to the total no of transactions.
Have blindly followed the advice/opinions of analysts quoted on mass media over the years but so far most have been wrong. missed opportunities waiting for market to correct:banghead: and bec another MTB in the casualty list.
Think many experts in this forum are better.
Any correction will be cushioned by all the CMs bec now only strong players play the game. Just look at the reported no of multiple unit players in the DUO condo right now, the no of players in high profile Echelon and the >550 cheques for Alex R. Go visit all these showflats and u can get frightened by the crowd.
Still huge amount of liquidity floating around.
The Title and Thread is certainly Deja Vu for many.
Since late 2010, this has been predicted repeatedly not just in this forum but in many other platforms/websites online. Now in Late 2013, many of the asking prices for resale properties are still at all time high. For the smaller units, still very difficult to negotiate prices right now from all time high. No doubt vol has dropped and there were some losses as highlighted in the CCR losses thread but these are still far and few compared to the total no of transactions.
Have blindly followed the advice/opinions of analysts quoted on mass media over the years but so far most have been wrong. missed opportunities waiting for market to correct:banghead: and bec another MTB in the casualty list.
Think many experts in this forum are better.
Any correction will be cushioned by all the CMs bec now only strong players play the game. Just look at the reported no of multiple unit players in the DUO condo right now, the no of players in high profile Echelon and the >550 cheques for Alex R. Go visit all these showflats and u can get frightened by the crowd.
Still huge amount of liquidity floating around.
Yes, we don't owe patriotic duty to the country to keep the price low and let other fellow countrymen or foreigners to buy affordable property. If one day we have to live underground, that is gov job to think of the solution. In the mean time, if one is really serious about affordable housing let us have more subsidised housing or cheap gov land sale. Until such solution is found, then one cannot be blamed for having to look after for one self.
clemdale24
13-11-13, 10:24
I doubt it will happen. Current housing prices are here to stay, or move up.
If the 6.9 mil population by 2030 is anything to consider by, from now until 2015/16, another 300,000 more residents or so will be living in singapore then, compared to now. and That is a lot of people.
Hmm....looks like a forumer called Mr.Basic is quite right.
He has been warning when the market was at the high end of property optimism.
Waiting for all this bearish news out now from the analyst is already to late.
That is why from another thread there are people losing money.
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=13068&page=147
smellyfish
13-11-13, 10:37
not sure about moving down, but surely cant move up too much anymore with Khaw watching it like a hawk.
walkthetiger
13-11-13, 10:38
As the supply of private housing is increasing, as long as more foreigners are coming in, there will always be a demand for rental.
So even if supply is more than demand, there may not be a significant decrease in rental.
Not too long ago, some reports said foreigners find the rental here too expensive. If rental drops a bit, Gov may view this a healthy thing which helps to bring in more foreigners....I guess.
walkthetiger
13-11-13, 10:50
I doubt it will happen. Current housing prices are here to stay, or move up.
If the 6.9 mil population by 2030 is anything to consider by, from now until 2015/16, another 300,000 more residents or so will be living in singapore then, compared to now. and That is a lot of people.
Still, foreigners have to find this place attractive enough...
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2013/11/36908/property-measures-limited-foreign-buying-speculatiThe number of foreigners buying property in Singapore fell to 330 or seven percent of overall private property transactions in Q3 this year, following tough cooling measures introduced by the government, revealed National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan in Parliament on Tuesday and reported in the media.
He noted that this is a significant decline from the 17 percent of total transactions accounted for by this group in 2011. In December that year, the government imposed a 10 percent additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD) on all property purchases by foreigners. *
Responding to a query from MP Christopher de Souza (Holland-Bukit Timah GRC), Mr Khaw also stated that sub-sale transactions, considered a gauge of the level of property speculation in the market, dipped to 4.6 percent in Q3 2013 from 7.6 percent in 2011.
In absolute numbers, sub-sale transactions dropped from 670 per quarter in 2011 to 181 in Q3 2013. With this “encouraging” trend,Mr Khaw said that the government will continue to closely monitor the market and will not hesitate to act further when necessary.
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2013/11/36908/property-measures-limited-foreign-buying-speculati
Looks like the cooling measures will continue and even more may be introduced.
Prices will surely continue to be down.
Hahaha I also remember a few years ago, some Propnex guy also say property prices will correct by 20% in that same year due to the introduction of one of the CMs... Lol.
From Duo thread, i notice AMK starts to buy, this makes me even more bullish on the market in 2015.
we are in a strange world. interest rate is really going to be low for a long long time.
in 1996 I believe gov made a mistake in dealing with pty bubble: it did not choke off the demand side early enough. end up lots of ppl suffered when bubble burst because of the leverage.
today gov learned: very early it imposed loan restriction. at 60% or even 50% LTV, this and that loan restriction, at this level whoever still buys will have much less financial obligation. this reduces chances of panic selling in the event of adverse economic climate.
I give MAS credit for doing this early. This helps everyone.
not sure about moving down, but surely cant move up too much anymore with Khaw watching it like a hawk.
actually, just look at govt land auction prices - has URA ever accepted a bid that is below it's minimum threshold or market value? it's an emphatic NO!!
if land prices don't come down, how much do we think, then, will new launch prices drop by? developers can cut a little, for now, by squeezing on their own margins or use cheaper materials. how far and how long can this go?
hence, as long as the govt artificially props up land prices, we can be sure of the inadvertent outcome.
we are in a strange world. interest rate is really going to be low for a long long time.
wat makes u feel confident take int rate will continue to remain low for a long time?
even if say Fed keep int rates low for the next 10 yrs, MAS can (if they wan) hike spore int rates to deter ppl for borrowing.
princess_morbucks
13-11-13, 12:23
wat makes u feel confident take int rate will continue to remain low for a long time?
The answer is YELLEN.
even if say Fed keep int rates low for the next 10 yrs, MAS can (if they wan) hike spore int rates to deter ppl for borrowing.
If MAS increase interest rate, the Singapore dollar will increase accordingly.
This will impact on exports and may impact our growth.
wat makes u feel confident take int rate will continue to remain low for a long time?
even if say Fed keep int rates low for the next 10 yrs, MAS can (if they wan) hike spore int rates to deter ppl for borrowing.
If that happens 1 usd = 1 sgd
wat makes u feel confident take int rate will continue to remain low for a long time?
even if say Fed keep int rates low for the next 10 yrs, MAS can (if they wan) hike spore int rates to deter ppl for borrowing.
the bank spread can creep up gradually but only to a certain limit
artificially manipulating interest rates has its consequences; e.g.
govt bond rates must go up
attract 'hot' money into the banking system
banks need to deploy the monies to generate higher returns - venture into riskier investments or decisions
artificially bringing up inflation rate
risk of deflation if consumers think savings generate a better risk-yield profile than investment vehicles e.g. property
thomastansb
13-11-13, 12:32
Most of the time, developers overbid. Like Yishun. 50% more than 2nd bidder.
actually, just look at govt land auction prices - has URA ever accepted a bid that is below it's minimum threshold or market value? it's an emphatic NO!!
if land prices don't come down, how much do we think, then, will new launch prices drop by? developers can cut a little, for now, by squeezing on their own margins or use cheaper materials. how far and how long can this go?
hence, as long as the govt artificially props up land prices, we can be sure of the inadvertent outcome.
Most of the time, developers overbid. Like Yishun. 50% more than 2nd bidder.
and i have to go back to UOL's bid for the land parcel at katong. kenna rejected because it was below (an undisclosed)the minimum.
govt isn't helping by sending such signals. as for overbidding, there may be other factors at play e.g. F&N wanting to 'monopolize' the region or protect prices, need to stock up land, etc
If the govt sell our land at a low cost, will the developer sell low too? I think not. The bottomline is max profit with min layout.
Ooooo ... I sense many are bulls!! :)
I'll throw in 1 speculative statement to support the bulls.
Marc Faber recently stated that QE could be permanent, and it is not a matter of when the taper will start, but rather when US will announce they are going to inflate the QE amount from 80B per month to 200B or even 1T per month! I wouldn't be surprised if it actually happens.
If the govt sell our land at a low cost, will the developer sell low too? I think not. The bottomline is max profit with min layout.
these are different issues.
firstly, selling land below market value does not equate to "low cost". valuation and benchmarking have always been arbitary exercises.
secondly, selling land at market value will surely mean that developer can't or won't sell low. however, selling land below market value may allow the developer to sell below market prices. e.g. look at Inflora - why can it be priced relatively cheaper to developments in the vicinity? land was acquired at a cheap price long long time ago.
thirdly, it's the message that's being sent to the market - the head honcho is articifically propping up land price. so? it means head honcho won't want to crash the market and leave buyers/developers high and dry. of course, we can read the intent in other ways too but let's keep the discussion simple
forgot to add, shouldn't the market determine prices instead of the government since we are a free and open economy?
wat makes u feel confident take int rate will continue to remain low for a long time?
even if say Fed keep int rates low for the next 10 yrs, MAS can (if they wan) hike spore int rates to deter ppl for borrowing.
you answered your own question, didn't you ?
and to PC08: this is not *bullish*. If it were ppl will go in and buy now.
it is merely *neutral*. no reason to sell. or rather, no fear to sell. without widespread fear, there is no crash.
more over, pty investment is *supposed* to be a long term investment. you dun flip around to "catch momentum" as in shares.
pty value in SG in long term is tied to SG itself. If you are already prepared for long term, and you believe in SG story, there is nothing to worry about.
you answered your own question, didn't you ?
tat's wat Im trying to tell u. Fed remain low doesn't mean tat MAS will remain the same.
these are different issues.
firstly, selling land below market value does not equate to "low cost". valuation and benchmarking have always been arbitary exercises.
secondly, selling land at market value will surely mean that developer can't or won't sell low. however, selling land below market value may allow the developer to sell below market prices. e.g. look at Inflora - why can it be priced relatively cheaper to developments in the vicinity? land was acquired at a cheap price long long time ago.
thirdly, it's the message that's being sent to the market - the head honcho is articifically propping up land price. so? it means head honcho won't want to crash the market and leave buyers/developers high and dry. of course, we can read the intent in other ways too but let's keep the discussion simple
What if crashing the market is necessary for an economy to scale greater heights? Just a thought.
What if crashing the market is necessary for an economy to scale greater heights? Just a thought.
eh?!? disruptive innovation is not the same as what you have described. e.g. you don't create a Depression to have a golden age.
What if crashing the market is necessary for an economy to scale greater heights? Just a thought.
That would be like US gov shut down drama. But in sg is unlikely.
Better not, otherwise we may see building collapsing after they are more than 30 years old?! :scared-1:
actually, just look at govt land auction prices - has URA ever accepted a bid that is below it's minimum threshold or market value? it's an emphatic NO!!
if land prices don't come down, how much do we think, then, will new launch prices drop by? developers can cut a little, for now, by squeezing on their own margins or use cheaper materials. how far and how long can this go?
hence, as long as the govt artificially props up land prices, we can be sure of the inadvertent outcome.
tat's wat Im trying to tell u. Fed remain low doesn't mean tat MAS will remain the same.
apologize, read too fast; eng81157 answered :)
MAS today has the pressure to do what everyone else is doing: lower rate, devalue SGD, "competitive devaluation".
All because of the absurd situation of USD.
raising rates and/or appreciating SGD has huge impact of the SG economy. In a world where everyone else is doing the opposite, that is suicidal.
for a small "problem" like pty market, simply restricting lending itself will do. that is exactly what MAS is doing. No need to jack up borrowing cost artificially. It already worked. In fact much more effectively than artificially higher rates.
Better not, otherwise we may see building collapsing after they are more than 30 years old?! :scared-1:
eh, not to the extent of compromising structural integrity. homogenous tiles for marble, cheap china knock-offs instead of grohe, etc...
If Bank can lend me money I will still buy.
eh?!? disruptive innovation is not the same as what you have described. e.g. you don't create a Depression to have a golden age.
Haha. We don't directly create depression of course. Due to greed, we create excesses, which in turn will result in correction. Correction is needed to kill off excesses and once it is light enough, we can move northwards again. Even after understanding the above, I can't practice it in real life because the stake holders only want to see GROWTH! So growth it shall be! Hahahaha.
In layman's explanation, I tell my lao ban market is there, cheong arr. Employ more salesman, stock more goods give power credit terms. Focus on capturing the market. Lao Ban blinded by growth story will endorse this and start to invest in my story. Growth didn't come, I can't tahan the increase overhead, and my stock became dead stock. My power credit terms became bad debts, and without a choice, I've to scale down just to survive.
That would be like US gov shut down drama. But in sg is unlikely.
There are so many factors that can result in a heavy pull back. The Gov shut down factor is just a tiny speck in the ocean.
SG market crashed after 1981 (Iran-Iraq war, Pan el Crisis), 1996 (Property cooling measure and Asian financial crisis), 2000 (Enron, Gulf war, SARS), and 2008 (Sub prime and Lehman collapse).
I am always open to SG boom and collapse stories. Ok with both really. :-)
I still feel that the market will not crash but just correct slightly.
With low interest rates and full employment, why sell? no pressure to sell...
Did you notice the amount of new office buildings coming up, if you look ath them, you will know we are heading towards 6.9m before 2030.
1. Asia Sq 2
2. Marina One 2 office towers.
3. Duo - Office and hotel
4. South beach office and hotel and F&B
5. CapitaGreen
6. Tanjong Pager Centre - Guoco land
7. Havelock road hotel - just awarded
8. DBS building - Renamed and refurbised into OUE Downtown
9. V on Shenton - Office Tower
10. Old Yen San building
11. New Hotel Phoenix and office and shopping on Orchard Road
12. Biopolis / Fusionopolis - I spotted at least 3 new buildings there
13. The Metropolis - Buona Vista
14. Lucas Studio - Fusionopolis
15. Mediapolis - Mediacorp moving there, sure will have additional manpower needed.
16. Jems office
17. Westgate office
18. 2 Jurong Hospital
19. Sim Lian office tower in Jurong
20. Genting hotel in Jurong
21. Big Box Retail
22. North point 2 - New Shopping centre
23. Changi Business Park - ??? Dunno how many new development
24. The Jewel @ Changi Airport - 2017
25. Terminal 4 - Budget opening soon
26. Sports Hub - How many new buildings, hotels etc there?
27.How many more MRT lines opening soon? 2? 3? 4?
The above are only the ones I can think of, how many more i cannot think of? And these are not small projects!
So since we already have unemployment at (2%) where are all these people going to come from?
I am very sure once the road network, MRT lines, housing shortage are resolved, the floodgates will be opened once again but this time round it will be better quality FT coz I think the gahmen would lhave learned the lesson...
Any one care to comment if I make sense?
you answered your own question, didn't you ?
and to PC08: this is not *bullish*. If it were ppl will go in and buy now.
it is merely *neutral*. no reason to sell. or rather, no fear to sell. without widespread fear, there is no crash.
more over, pty investment is *supposed* to be a long term investment. you dun flip around to "catch momentum" as in shares.
pty value in SG in long term is tied to SG itself. If you are already prepared for long term, and you believe in SG story, there is nothing to worry about.
I think they are buying. Loan to Deposit ratio already @ 100%. It is a new record since Asian Financial Crisis?
I still feel that the market will not crash but just correct slightly.
I am very sure once the road network, MRT lines, housing shortage are resolved, the floodgates will be opened once again but this time round it will be better quality FT coz I think the gahmen would lhave learned the lesson...
Any one care to comment if I make sense?
u nid to define wat u mean by crash 1st la :p
Im actually quite confident tat the floodgates will not be opened b4 GE2016 :D
any time from now till 2016 still hv abt 2+yrs, 10%-15% lower than now is still possible, I tink. Wat u tink?
I still feel that the market will not crash but just correct slightly.
With low interest rates and full employment, why sell? no pressure to sell...
Did you notice the amount of new office buildings coming up, if you look ath them, you will know we are heading towards 6.9m before 2030.
1. Asia Sq 2
2. Marina One 2 office towers.
3. Duo - Office and hotel
4. South beach office and hotel and F&B
5. CapitaGreen
6. Tanjong Pager Centre - Guoco land
7. Havelock road hotel - just awarded
8. DBS building - Renamed and refurbised into OUE Downtown
9. V on Shenton - Office Tower
10. Old Yen San building
11. New Hotel Phoenix and office and shopping on Orchard Road
12. Biopolis / Fusionopolis - I spotted at least 3 new buildings there
13. The Metropolis - Buona Vista
14. Lucas Studio - Fusionopolis
15. Mediapolis - Mediacorp moving there, sure will have additional manpower needed.
16. Jems office
17. Westgate office
18. 2 Jurong Hospital
19. Sim Lian office tower in Jurong
20. Genting hotel in Jurong
21. Big Box Retail
22. North point 2 - New Shopping centre
23. Changi Business Park - ??? Dunno how many new development
24. The Jewel @ Changi Airport - 2017
25. Terminal 4 - Budget opening soon
26. Sports Hub - How many new buildings, hotels etc there?
27.How many more MRT lines opening soon? 2? 3? 4?
The above are only the ones I can think of, how many more i cannot think of? And these are not small projects!
So since we already have unemployment at (2%) where are all these people going to come from?
I am very sure once the road network, MRT lines, housing shortage are resolved, the floodgates will be opened once again but this time round it will be better quality FT coz I think the gahmen would lhave learned the lesson...
Any one care to comment if I make sense?
You've just listed a bunch of excesses I just mentioned! Fantastic job! They will need some time to fill up the new supply!
I went to service my watch at this pretty old Ascendas Industrial Building @ Kallang! Looks to me only half of the space were occupied!
u nid to define wat u mean by crash 1st la :p
Im actually quite confident tat the floodgates will not be opened b4 GE2016 :D
any time from now till 2016 still hv abt 2+yrs, 10%-15% lower than now is still possible, I tink. Wat u tink?
Most of these development will be completed or almost completed come mid 2016....
If they dont open the floodgates who will go work in these places?
You've just listed a bunch of excesses I just mentioned! Fantastic job! They will need some time to fill up the new supply!
I went to service my watch at this pretty old Ascendas Industrial Building @ Kallang! Looks to me only half of the space were occupied!
It is not excesses if the gahmen open to let more people in.... thats my point, they cannot allow all these buildings to go empty and hence 6m by2017
Most of these development will be completed or almost completed come mid 2016....
If they dont open the floodgates who will go work in these places?
u din read my post carefully leh zzzzz......
I predict after GE2016 liao will open, but still possible for a dip since it is > 2 yrs from now.
juz a matter of dip how much nia.
u din read my post carefully leh zzzzz......
I predict after GE2016 liao will open, but still possible for a dip since it is > 2 yrs from now.
juz a matter of dip how much nia.
Very possible...
I agree with you...
Dip from now till 2016, then they score big win,so they open up the floodgates again now tht the roads and MRT and shopping centres and hospitals are up!
Haha. We don't directly create depression of course. Due to greed, we create excesses, which in turn will result in correction. Correction is needed to kill off excesses and once it is light enough, we can move northwards again. Even after understanding the above, I can't practice it in real life because the stake holders only want to see GROWTH! So growth it shall be! Hahahaha.
In layman's explanation, I tell my lao ban market is there, cheong arr. Employ more salesman, stock more goods give power credit terms. Focus on capturing the market. Lao Ban blinded by growth story will endorse this and start to invest in my story. Growth didn't come, I can't tahan the increase overhead, and my stock became dead stock. My power credit terms became bad debts, and without a choice, I've to scale down just to survive.
Who has been teaching us to go in excess? The gov of course. Build 2 casinos instead of 1. Build the biggest sea port possible. Keep expanding changi airport. Expand the MRT network. We are merely imitating the ambition. If we do nothing with our life, it can makes us feel inadequate. Buying property is a way to cope with the dizzying development. Its a way to claim a stake in the development.
how come we dont have mortgage rate at 1% in the 80's?
why only now we have mortgage rates 1%?
I spoke to my uncle who MTB, now only have a HDB in the far west, he told me he felt the growth has pass him by and he actually feel sad when he sees orchard road, Marina bay and the new Jurong east area....
He felt he didnt benefit from all of these and didnt managed to catch the wave and now is left behind
I spoke to my uncle who MTB, now only have a HDB in the far west, he told me he felt the growth has pass him by and he actually feel sad when he sees orchard road, Marina bay and the new Jurong east area....
He felt he didnt benefit from all of these and didnt managed to catch the wave and now is left behind
Since the development cannot slow down to our pace, we have to keep up with the development pace.
You've just listed a bunch of excesses I just mentioned! Fantastic job! They will need some time to fill up the new supply!
I went to service my watch at this pretty old Ascendas Industrial Building @ Kallang! Looks to me only half of the space were occupied!
industrial rental still very firm leh....
Who has been teaching us to go in excess? The gov of course. Build 2 casinos instead of 1. Build the biggest sea port possible. Keep expanding changi airport. Expand the MRT network. We are merely imitating the ambition. If we do nothing with our life, it can makes us feel inadequate. Buying property is a way to cope with the dizzying development. Its a way to claim a stake in the development.
I fully concur with your last sentence.
It is not excesses if the gahmen open to let more people in.... thats my point, they cannot allow all these buildings to go empty and hence 6m by2017
You have ignored the important 3rd dimension parameter, which is time. As far as infrastructures are concerned, they have to be built in advance of the projected demand. It could be categorized as excess in 2016, but not in 2030.
The population projection in 2020 6m and 2030 7m are pretty realistic. If you take a look at the population vs time chart, which basically shows a linear relationship ie. y=mx+c to trend, using the relationship to project and u will get the above population figures. Our government statistic people are not joking when they presented the white paper.
industrial rental still very firm leh....
Ong lai,
Know nuts about industrial rental market la. It could be firm.
Just want to agar agar say I saw a lagi empty ascendas building niah.
how come we dont have mortgage rate at 1% in the 80's?
why only now we have mortgage rates 1%?
That's because this place is now pretty much developed.
High mortgage rates are still common in developing cities such as Ho Chi Minh. Should be between 10 and 20%.
everyone is numb with the idea that govt will make property sibei cheap in 2016 ... :beats-me-man: :tsk-tsk::banghead:
i think the prices will not go anywhere. Everyone seems to be numb with numbers now.
Hahaha I also remember a few years ago, some Propnex guy also say property prices will correct by 20% in that same year due to the introduction of one of the CMs... Lol.
I remembered too. MI :mrT:
everyone is numb with the idea that govt will make property sibei cheap in 2016 ... :beats-me-man: :tsk-tsk::banghead:
let me ask u.
1. if ppty prices merely stabilises with 5% reduction fm current prices by 2016, do u tink can win back the bulk of the lost votes? :tsk-tsk:
2. definition of soft landing
let me give u an example.
$100 dropped to $70 within 1/2 yr --> steep gradient --> crash liao
however, if $100 dropped to $92 in 1st yr, $92 to $85 in 2nd yr, $85 to $78 in 3rd yr, $78 to $70 in 4th yr --> gentle gradient --> soft landing :D :p
let me ask u.
1. if ppty prices merely stabilises with 5% reduction fm current prices by 2016, do u tink can win back the bulk of the lost votes? :tsk-tsk:
2. definition of soft landing
let me give u an example.
$100 dropped to $70 within 1/2 yr --> steep gradient --> crash liao
however, if $100 dropped to $92 in 1st yr, $92 to $85 in 2nd yr, $85 to $78 in 3rd yr, $78 to $70 in 4th yr --> gentle gradient --> soft landing :D :p
So u think if hdb resale prices drop, govt will win more votes???
So u think if hdb resale prices drop, govt will win more votes???
my post refers to pte ppty.
as for hdb, I tink they will lost more votes if hdb resale $ drop. tink govt dun understand wat those kpkb hdb owners want.
wat they wan is resale $ to soar but BTO $ to drop la :p
Amber Woods
13-11-13, 16:20
my post refers to pte ppty.
as for hdb, I tink they will lost more votes if hdb resale $ drop. tink govt dun understand wat those kpkb hdb owners want.
wat they wan is resale $ to soar but BTO $ to drop la :p
The truth is when come to voting, existing HDB flat owners will not likely to vote against the govt just because HDB resale price is low. After all, you sell low you also buy low.
On the contrary, many will likely to vote against the govt if the price is too high. Of course there will be a group of HDB owners who have bought PCs and have to sell their HDB flats at a later stage. They will not be happy if prices drop too much but many are prepared for such a risk when they decided to buy PCs in the first place. They are not likely to vote against the govt for the sake of it if they are supporters of the govt.
The truth is when come to voting, existing HDB flat owners will not likely to vote against the govt just because HDB resale price is low. After all, you sell low you also buy low.
Why do u say that??? What is the rationale???
The truth is when come to voting, existing HDB flat owners will not likely to vote against the govt just because HDB resale price is low. After all, you sell low you also buy low.
how do the majority of singaporeans get their HDBs?
most got it thr BTO.
who r those tat dun get to BTOs?
- singles/single parents (until recently) - but no impact cos anyway they dun get their votes in the past too.
- those who earned too much - these r minorities.
- minorities under various ad-hoc cases.
& wat's the profile of those who stopped supporting them? r they resale flat buyers or BTO owners?
walkthetiger
13-11-13, 18:18
The truth is when come to voting, existing HDB flat owners will not likely to vote against the govt just because HDB resale price is low. After all, you sell low you also buy low.
Agree. HDB resale price will drop, but much lesser than PC, EC or even BTO, therefore that group is less affected.
Amber Woods
13-11-13, 19:29
Why do u say that??? What is the rationale???
For owners of HDB flat who are staying put, they are indifferent regardless of resale price going up or down. They only feel good if prices are high but they also know that if they sell, they will have to buy at higher price as well.
For those who wish to upgrade to bigger flat or downgrade to smaller flat, lower resale prices means they sell low and buy low and have the benefit of a smaller loan.
For those who bought PC and selling their HDB flats later, they are likely to be unhappy with lower resale price. However, they would have factor in the risk of buying PC and selling their flats at lower price later. This group is also not likely to vote against the govt as well because if they do, they risk having a lower price for their new PCs as well should the govt be voted out.
The one group who is against low resale prices is multiple property owners. Then again, they are not likely to vote against the govt for fear of even lower property prices should the govt be voted out.
So lower property prices work for the government in term of votes.
walkthetiger
13-11-13, 21:55
The one group who is against low resale prices is multiple property owners. Then again, they are not likely to vote against the govt for fear of even lower property prices should the govt be voted out.
.
Debatable. My guess, this group will vote against the Gov, but they are the minority, so no much impact in GE anyway.
For owners of HDB flat who are staying put, they are indifferent regardless of resale price going up or down. They only feel good if prices are high but they also know that if they sell, they will have to buy at higher price as well.
For those who wish to upgrade to bigger flat or downgrade to smaller flat, lower resale prices means they sell low and buy low and have the benefit of a smaller loan.
For those who bought PC and selling their HDB flats later, they are likely to be unhappy with lower resale price. However, they would have factor in the risk of buying PC and selling their flats at lower price later. This group is also not likely to vote against the govt as well because if they do, they risk having a lower price for their new PCs as well should the govt be voted out.
The one group who is against low resale prices is multiple property owners. Then again, they are not likely to vote against the govt for fear of even lower property prices should the govt be voted out.
So lower property prices work for the government in term of votes.
*
For those who wish to upgrade to bigger flat or downgrade to smaller flat, lower resale prices means they sell low and buy low and have the benefit of a smaller loan.*
*
*.
Amber....
Upgrade from hdb1 to hdb2
Current scenario
Assuming hdb1 =400k hdb2= 500k (diff 100k)
If price increase 20%
Hdb1 = 480k hdb2 = 600k (diff120k)
The absolute diff in additional loan = 20k leh
Downgrade from hdb2 to hdb1
Current scenario
Assuming hdb1 =400k hdb2= 500k (diff 100k)
If price drop 20%
Hdb1=320k hdb2 = 400k (diff 80k)
The absolute diff in the loan for the downgrade is 20k.
So the savings is not much leh????
I do not believe the 20k diff will swing votes...:confused:
I tend to agree w mermaid's view
my post refers to pte ppty.
*
as for hdb, I tink they will lost more votes if hdb resale $ drop. tink govt dun understand wat those kpkb hdb owners want.
wat they wan is resale $ to soar but BTO $ to drop la :p
Is it the 包赢 or I only can win , never loses syndrome
think only god can do that
Amber Woods
14-11-13, 08:43
Amber....
Upgrade from hdb1 to hdb2
Current scenario
Assuming hdb1 =400k hdb2= 500k (diff 100k)
If price increase 20%
Hdb1 = 480k hdb2 = 600k (diff120k)
The absolute diff in additional loan = 20k leh
Downgrade from hdb2 to hdb1
Current scenario
Assuming hdb1 =400k hdb2= 500k (diff 100k)
If price drop 20%
Hdb1=320k hdb2 = 400k (diff 80k)
The absolute diff in the loan for the downgrade is 20k.
So the savings is not much leh????
I do not believe the 20k diff will swing votes...:confused:
I tend to agree w mermaid's view
The big picture is that HDB flat owners are not overly concern with lower resale prices except those who bought PCs and need to sell their flats later.
The question in contention was whether will the government loose more votes with lower resale price. The big picture is that low property prices work for the government to gain more votes.
The big picture is that low property prices work for the government to gain more votes..
hmmm ... so which category of ppl who r currently supporting opposition will support govt when resale $ drop?
besides the minorities tat I hv listed, the oni category I can tink of is PRs .... but these ppl dun vote ...
Amber Woods
14-11-13, 09:05
hmmm ... so which category of ppl who r currently supporting opposition will support govt when resale $ drop?
besides the minorities tat I hv listed, the oni category I can tink of is PRs .... but these ppl dun vote ...
It is a known fact that there is going to be a sizable portion of the population who will support the opposition regardless of what happen to the economy or property prices. This has to be taken into perspective when we discuss whether lower resale prices works better for the government or not.
It is a known fact that there is going to be a sizable portion of the population who will support the opposition regardless of what happen to the economy or property prices. This has to be taken into perspective when we discuss whether lower resale prices works better for the government or not.
u r missing my point le ...
since u feel tat a lower resale will increase votes in favour of govt, Im interested to noe which category of ppl u r referring to ...
becos in my tinking, the biggest possible group is singles, but I can tell u quite confidently, even wif lower resale $ & eligible to buy 2 rm BTO, oso hard to win the votes fm tis category of ppl de lah ...
This will greatly affect the slighty above middle income or sandwiched group and not very good for the garment. This is the group who pay taxes, pay higher COE, receive less/no goodies at all from garment,etc.
The big picture is that HDB flat owners are not overly concern with lower resale prices except those who bought PCs and need to sell their flats later.
The question in contention was whether will the government loose more votes with lower resale price. The big picture is that low property prices work for the government to gain more votes.
The big picture is that HDB flat owners are not overly concern with lower resale prices except those who bought PCs and need to sell their flats later.
The question in contention was whether will the government loose more votes with lower resale price. The big picture is that low property prices work for the government to gain more votes.
For those who bot PC and have hdb... They will cling on to their hdb unless govt come up new policy.
To more votes with lower resale... I don't get it????
My view is parents who live in flats are worried their kids will not be able to afford hdb in future if prices escalate (bto)... That's why govt bringing prices of bto to affordable levels...
Not argumentative here hor... Just trying to understand....
Cheers:cheers1:
Amber Woods
14-11-13, 09:28
The question we are discussing is whether the government will gain more votes with lower resale prices. My response was as per below. It is going to make some quarters unhappy but they are not likely to vote against the government just because they do not benefit from lower resale price as stated in my response below.
Bearing in mind that lower resale price will lead to overall lower property prices. First timers, singles buying their first homes will all be better off with lower property prices. Hence the government will gain more votes with lower property prices.
Bearing in mind that in as long as the government is not losing more votes, it is more votes gain in an election.
For owners of HDB flat who are staying put, they are indifferent regardless of resale price going up or down. They only feel good if prices are high but they also know that if they sell, they will have to buy at higher price as well.
For those who wish to upgrade to bigger flat or downgrade to smaller flat, lower resale prices means they sell low and buy low and have the benefit of a smaller loan.
For those who bought PC and selling their HDB flats later, they are likely to be unhappy with lower resale price. However, they would have factor in the risk of buying PC and selling their flats at lower price later. This group is also not likely to vote against the govt as well because if they do, they risk having a lower price for their new PCs as well should the govt be voted out.
The one group who is against low resale prices is multiple property owners. Then again, they are not likely to vote against the govt for fear of even lower property prices should the govt be voted out.
So lower property prices work for the government in term of votes.
Tis thread is becoming more interesting as it starts to mutate into how to win more votes for the govt. honestly I feel tat all they hv done so far doesn’t really help much to regain lost votes. Cos they dun understand the mentality of sporeans at all :doh:
Sporeans r very chao quan, double std & jealous freak one … if u noe them well :p
Wat sporeans wanna:
1. Get bto at prices 30% lesser den current.
2. Dun wan resale hdb price to drop.
3. New citizens cannot hv equal balloting chances wif true blue sporeans for BTO. preferably, new citizens shd not be allowed to apply for BTO in the 1st 5 yrs.
4. Singles can apply 3 rm bto.
5. Studio apmt prices to be lower, at least 30% since lease period only 30yrs.
Tis how I feel, from the pov of a commoner … the best way to regain lost votes. perhaps policy makers dun feel the same as us, perhaps they noe ... but they simply cant do tat …
Amber Woods
14-11-13, 09:40
The question we are discussing is whether the government will gain more votes with lower resale prices. My response was as per below. It is going to make some quarters unhappy but they are not likely to vote against the government just because they do not benefit from lower resale price as stated in my response below.
Bearing in mind that lower resale price will lead to overall lower property prices. First timers, singles buying their first homes will all be better off with lower property prices. Hence the government will gain more votes with lower property prices.
Bearing in mind that in as long as the government is not losing more votes, it is more votes gain in an election.
Another way to look at this is to ask ourselves the other way round; will the government gain more votes with high resale price and high property prices? Our learned LKY who is rated smart but not always right had publicly stated that one of the reason for the swing of votes in the 2011 election was the high property prices. His comment has not been challenged thus far.
Another way to look at this is to ask ourselves the other way round; will the government gain more votes with high resale price and high property prices? Our learned LKY who is rated smart but not always right had publicly stated that one of the reason for the swing of votes in the 2011 election was the high property prices. His comment has not been challenged thus far.
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/blogs/singaporescene/lee-kuan-yew-why-pap-lost-votes-may-035159549.html
Read para 2.
I believe he was referring to hdb bto... That's why hdb come into play.... To build more...
Read this
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/aljunied-voters-will-regret-choosing-wp--mm-lee.html
Tis thread is becoming more interesting as it starts to mutate into how to win more votes for the govt. honestly I feel tat all they hv done so far doesn’t really help much to regain lost votes. Cos they dun understand the mentality of sporeans at all :doh:
Sporeans r very chao quan, double std & jealous freak one … if u noe them well :p
Wat sporeans wanna:
1. Get bto at prices 30% lesser den current.
2. Dun wan resale hdb price to drop.
3. New citizens cannot hv equal balloting chances wif true blue sporeans for BTO. preferably, new citizens shd not be allowed to apply for BTO in the 1st 5 yrs.
4. Singles can apply 3 rm bto.
5. Studio apmt prices to be lower, at least 30% since lease period only 30yrs.
Tis how I feel, from the pov of a commoner … the best way to regain lost votes. perhaps policy makers dun feel the same as us, perhaps they noe ... but they simply cant do tat …
I think winning votes is only part of the reason, the other reason being trying to achieve 6.9 million population target. To achieve that target, Singapore needs another 500,000 housing units which is not achieveable by private property alone - at least not with the MM units and 1 or 2 bedrooms.
The govt will launch 25,000 BTOs every year until 2016.
Amber Woods
14-11-13, 10:18
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/blogs/singaporescene/lee-kuan-yew-why-pap-lost-votes-may-035159549.html
Read para 2.
I believe he was referring to hdb bto... That's why hdb come into play.... To build more...
Read this
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/aljunied-voters-will-regret-choosing-wp--mm-lee.html
Thanks for the links.
That is the reason why HDB is increasing supply and controlling prices of BTO flats and also trying to influence the resale price. The market segments are interlink and any reduction in BTO flat prices will affect resale prices and the overall property market.
80% of the votes come from voters owning and/or staying in a HDB flat. Hence, lower prices (be it BTO or resale) will work in favour of the government.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/archive/wednesday/premium/top-stories/market-may-correct-20156-forum-20131113
Published November 13, 2013
PROPERTY
Market may correct in 2015/6: forum
Higher interest rates to coincide with rise in housing supply
By Teh Shi Ning
[email protected]
[SINGAPORE] The property market here could correct significantly in 2015 or 2016, when higher interest rates are expected to coincide with a large increase in housing supply, economists said yesterday.
Making presentations at the 20th Singapore Economic Roundtable, they indentified this as
one of several medium-term challenges and risks confronting the Singapore economy, the others being over-leveraging in certain household segments, lower cost-competitiveness and obstacles to productivity growth.
The forum, jointly organised by the Institute of Policy Studies and The Business Times, is held twice a year under the Chatham House Rule - under which participants agree to keep each other's views anonymous to promote frank debate.
The event attracted more than 30 academics, private-sector economists and policymakers.
Citi economist Kit Wei Zheng said that property prices are likely to fall 10 to 15 per cent over the cycle in the next few years, which could materially reduce households' net worth.
The discussant for his presentation, Barclays economist Joey Chew, said she expected an even larger correction - 20 to 30 per cent in 2015 and 2016, which is when the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise its interest rate after tapering off quantitative easing.
But Mr Kit said that the housing supply in the pipeline should not be under-estimated, noting that the potential private housing supply till 2017 has risen to 32 per cent of the existing stock of private residential units. This will push vacancy rates up, especially since population growth is slowing.
Ms Chew estimated that vacancy rates could surge to more than 10 per cent in 2015 and 2016 amid curbs on foreign demand, given that the secondary market has weakened following the government's multiple rounds of macro-prudential measures to cool the property market.
On the demand side, overall home ownership levels have risen to 90 per cent from the 10-year low of 87 per cent at the end of 2010. This suggests that pent-up demand for housing to live in has already been met, Mr Kit added.
Both economists noted that the risks of rapidly rising household debt in Singapore are ameliorated by the fact that households are not just asset-rich but also cash-rich, but Mr Kit noted that property has accounted for almost 80 per cent of the growth in household net worth since 2006. "It follows that a fall in property prices in the next few years would also erode household net worth significantly," said Mr Kit.
Also, the distribution of debts and assets may be important: Recent figures from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Credit Bureau show that rising debt burdens among those in their 30s to 50s and debt levels rising past the peak income age of 50 may signal that individuals are borrowing on their assets. If such loans are being used for investment properties, that could amplify the downward pressure on prices, said Mr Kit.
One participant pointed out that MAS has said that it is prepared to unwind some of the measures introduced when the property market cools, although others, such as the total debt servicing ratio, are longer-term ones to ensure prudent lending.
But others said that reversing such demand measures, while necessary, may be insufficient. One participant said: "Once a condo is built, the supply is there. It's not clear to me that investor demand will come back; immigration policies are being tightened.
Another said: "I'm not sure how much the government can do to support the market. It's already reached a bubble situation. I'm not sure how much can be unwound."
I think winning votes is only part of the reason, the other reason being trying to achieve 6.9 million population target. To achieve that target, Singapore needs another 500,000 housing units which is not achieveable by private property alone - at least not with the MM units and 1 or 2 bedrooms.
The govt will launch 25,000 BTOs every year until 2016.
its abt sustaining singapore. without w working work force singapore will decline and all these things people want will not be able to happen.
Basically people want everything but don't want to work or pay the price for it. thats the short summary of the narrow short sighted mentality of the people.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/archive/wednesday/premium/top-stories/market-may-correct-20156-forum-20131113
Published November 13, 2013
PROPERTY
Market may correct in 2015/6: forum
Higher interest rates to coincide with rise in housing supply
By Teh Shi Ning
[email protected]
[SINGAPORE] The property market here could correct significantly in 2015 or 2016, when higher interest rates are expected to coincide with a large increase in housing supply, economists said yesterday.
Making presentations at the 20th Singapore Economic Roundtable, they indentified this as
one of several medium-term challenges and risks confronting the Singapore economy, the others being over-leveraging in certain household segments, lower cost-competitiveness and obstacles to productivity growth.
The forum, jointly organised by the Institute of Policy Studies and The Business Times, is held twice a year under the Chatham House Rule - under which participants agree to keep each other's views anonymous to promote frank debate.
The event attracted more than 30 academics, private-sector economists and policymakers.
Citi economist Kit Wei Zheng said that property prices are likely to fall 10 to 15 per cent over the cycle in the next few years, which could materially reduce households' net worth.
The discussant for his presentation, Barclays economist Joey Chew, said she expected an even larger correction - 20 to 30 per cent in 2015 and 2016, which is when the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise its interest rate after tapering off quantitative easing.
But Mr Kit said that the housing supply in the pipeline should not be under-estimated, noting that the potential private housing supply till 2017 has risen to 32 per cent of the existing stock of private residential units. This will push vacancy rates up, especially since population growth is slowing.
Ms Chew estimated that vacancy rates could surge to more than 10 per cent in 2015 and 2016 amid curbs on foreign demand, given that the secondary market has weakened following the government's multiple rounds of macro-prudential measures to cool the property market.
On the demand side, overall home ownership levels have risen to 90 per cent from the 10-year low of 87 per cent at the end of 2010. This suggests that pent-up demand for housing to live in has already been met, Mr Kit added.
Both economists noted that the risks of rapidly rising household debt in Singapore are ameliorated by the fact that households are not just asset-rich but also cash-rich, but Mr Kit noted that property has accounted for almost 80 per cent of the growth in household net worth since 2006. "It follows that a fall in property prices in the next few years would also erode household net worth significantly," said Mr Kit.
Also, the distribution of debts and assets may be important: Recent figures from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Credit Bureau show that rising debt burdens among those in their 30s to 50s and debt levels rising past the peak income age of 50 may signal that individuals are borrowing on their assets. If such loans are being used for investment properties, that could amplify the downward pressure on prices, said Mr Kit.
One participant pointed out that MAS has said that it is prepared to unwind some of the measures introduced when the property market cools, although others, such as the total debt servicing ratio, are longer-term ones to ensure prudent lending.
But others said that reversing such demand measures, while necessary, may be insufficient. One participant said: "Once a condo is built, the supply is there. It's not clear to me that investor demand will come back; immigration policies are being tightened.
Another said: "I'm not sure how much the government can do to support the market. It's already reached a bubble situation. I'm not sure how much can be unwound."
my take is interest rates will be the key. when it move. then next is how much liquidity the market have and then in singapore will be how is our economy. down or up?
Allthepies
14-11-13, 12:59
instead of being overly fearlful, jealous or angry with "newly-minted" Singaporeans who are going to at least contribute economically to Singapore, perhaps we should be more angry with "Singaporeans" who migrated...
instead of being overly fearlful, jealous or angry with "newly-minted" Singaporeans who are going to at least contribute economically to Singapore, perhaps we should be more angry with "Singaporeans" who migrated...
Im a potential sporean who wanted to migrate :hell-hath-no-fury:
instead of being overly fearlful, jealous or angry with "newly-minted" Singaporeans who are going to at least contribute economically to Singapore, perhaps we should be more angry with "Singaporeans" who migrated...
Those who can migrate should be grateful that the rise of the country have given them the standing that they can migrate. imagine we are worst off then everyone else. migrate to where? no choice at all.
people should be happy they have choices.
oversupply and rise of interest rate has been debated until the cows come home ... and yet there is no sign of property price going downhill
Im a potential sporean who wanted to migrate :hell-hath-no-fury:
I've travelled enough places to be certain I want to continue stay in Singapore.
This is still a fantastic country to live in.
I've travelled enough places to be certain I want to continue stay in Singapore.
This is still a fantastic country to live in.
nothing to hiam abt living in spore physically, Im not rich but neither am I poor ... juz unhappy n angry ...
nothing to hiam abt living in spore physically, Im not rich but neither am I poor ... juz unhappy n angry ...
u need a man to vent ur frustration on...
:D:D
u need a man to vent ur frustration on...
:D:D
come! u're the chosen one! I nid to bash u! :violent-shooting: :axekiller:
come! u're the chosen one! I nid to bash u! :violent-shooting: :axekiller:
:tsk-tsk::tsk-tsk: must be real one lah...
:tsk-tsk::tsk-tsk: must be real one lah...
I meant to bash & kick u in real life :47:
nothing to hiam abt living in spore physically, Im not rich but neither am I poor ... juz unhappy n angry ...
Please go read Lao Zhi's teachings on contentment.
Please go read Lao Zhi's teachings on contentment.
This problem cannot be solved by Lao Zhi's teaching because the frustration and cannot be satisfied demands for women in Singapore stems from the sense of insecurity rather than material wants alone.
This problem cannot be solved by Lao Zhi's teaching because the frustration and cannot be satisfied demands for women in Singapore stems from the sense of insecurity rather than material wants alone.
You sound like a woman sha shou.
I love this chart a lot, can't remember the source though, maybe URA. I am a chart person, news is bull crap to me, mostly for entertainment reading.
Anyway, you decide for yourself what is going to happen next.
:cheers1:
I love this chart a lot, can't remember the source though, maybe URA. I am a chart person, news is bull crap to me, mostly for entertainment reading.
Anyway, you decide for yourself what is going to happen next.
:cheers1:
Your 3 circles.. What happened then??? Do u expect a recession to happen at the square area???
I love this chart a lot, can't remember the source though, maybe URA. I am a chart person, news is bull crap to me, mostly for entertainment reading.
Anyway, you decide for yourself what is going to happen next.
:cheers1:
think this chart was posted by R33 :D
Your 3 circles.. What happened then??? Do u expect a recession to happen at the square area???
recession ?....serious lei
but I believed Asia is still in the Growth stage
recession in US maybe
Never seen Microsoft and Google so aggressive before, into Singapore and AP market
Dow chemical, BASF (GERMAN) and many others
recently GM
expect more to come
How prices can come down when we are expected to open the floodgates with so many new development coming Up? I DO NOT believe the govt will not open the floodgates to fill these buildings
I still feel that the market will not crash but just correct slightly.
With low interest rates and full employment, why sell? no pressure to sell...
Did you notice the amount of new office buildings coming up, if you look ath them, you will know we are heading towards 6.9m before 2030.
1. Asia Sq 2
2. Marina One 2 office towers.
3. Duo - Office and hotel
4. South beach office and hotel and F&B
5. CapitaGreen
6. Tanjong Pager Centre - Guoco land
7. Havelock road hotel - just awarded
8. DBS building - Renamed and refurbised into OUE Downtown
9. V on Shenton - Office Tower
10. Old Yen San building
11. New Hotel Phoenix and office and shopping on Orchard Road
12. Biopolis / Fusionopolis - I spotted at least 3 new buildings there
13. The Metropolis - Buona Vista
14. Lucas Studio - Fusionopolis
15. Mediapolis - Mediacorp moving there, sure will have additional manpower needed.
16. Jems office
17. Westgate office
18. 2 Jurong Hospital
19. Sim Lian office tower in Jurong
20. Genting hotel in Jurong
21. Big Box Retail
22. North point 2 - New Shopping centre
23. Changi Business Park - ??? Dunno how many new development
24. The Jewel @ Changi Airport - 2017
25. Terminal 4 - Budget opening soon
26. Sports Hub - How many new buildings, hotels etc there?
27.How many more MRT lines opening soon? 2? 3? 4?
The above are only the ones I can think of, how many more i cannot think of? And these are not small projects!
So since we already have unemployment at (2%) where are all these people going to come from?
I am very sure once the road network, MRT lines, housing shortage are resolved, the
floodgates will be opened once again but this time round it will be better quality FT coz I think the gahmen would lhave learned the lesson...
Any one care to comment if I make sense?
anyone Disagree?
How prices can come down when we are expected to open the floodgates with so many new development coming Up? I DO NOT believe the govt will not open the floodgates to fill these buildings
Precisely
Most important are the Big Blue chip companies
whilst may agreed with many that the foreign talent we are getting are not up to standard (just let the water find its level)
It will .....eventually
Precisely
Most important are the Big Blue chip companies
whilst may agreed with many that the foreign talent we are getting are not up to standard (just let the water find its level)
It will .....eventually
The quality of FT will improve over time when singapore become more desirable as a city, it's natural progression, in the next 10 years with the tightening of all the various level of employment permit and lessons learnt by pap from past experiences, only the better quality ones will remain and competitive enough to earn a living here, I can bet my bottom dollar we will hut 6 before end of this decade, there is no way all these new developments can be populated with working adults without opening the floodgates, one building
Easily 200k more on the way within the next 3 years.
The quality of FT will improve over time when singapore become more desirable as a city, it's natural progression, in the next 10 years with the tightening of all the various level of employment permit and lessons learnt by pap from past experiences, only the better quality ones will remain and competitive enough to earn a living here, I can bet my bottom dollar we will hut 6 before end of this decade, there is no way all these new developments can be populated with working adults without opening the floodgates, one building
Easily 200k more on the way within the next 3 years.
Hi CCR
exactly my point
maybe I talk too much liao
zip :ashamed1::ashamed1:
Your 3 circles.. What happened then??? Do u expect a recession to happen at the square area???
No one likes the word recession, so let's not use it.
This is quite an obvious peaking phase, where greed is very rampant. You can't smell the fear setting in yet because it is still buried deep within. Personally, I feel that the divergence of these lines has to do with the greed effect, and to me it is a red flag. Emotional people should calm down and regain their composure and thoughts.
Having continuous growth doesn't mean price will go up if the financial vehicle has already been overpriced. An eg. is McDonald stock, where it had record revenues year after year in the 70s or 80s, but its stock price either was flat or retraced during the same period.
Just noticed that the general consensus here is still pretty bullish. Interesting find. Have a great weekend! :D
If you look at the past cycle, usually if property prices Starts correcting, after 2 years, it will trend up again unless it's interrupted by another event whether good or bad, after Asian financial e crisis in 1998, by about 2000 it starts to ten up again, but too bad we hit by crisis after crisis then, for 2008, prices was expected to drop for another 1 year but was interrupted by US bailing out the economy and QE hence the down cycle only 9 months...
If this cycle starts to drop, actually it makes for perfect timing for prices to go on the next run after 2016 election which is about 2 years if we predict market will start to decline in 2014 January
recession ?....serious lei
but I believed Asia is still in the Growth stage
recession in US maybe
panasonic gonna start scaling down next yr, tink cut 7k ppl, spore included. more mncs might follow.
panasonic gonna start scaling down next yr, tink cut 7k ppl, spore included. more mncs might follow.
you will not worried when you understand Upstream and Downstream
High Tech Manufacturing vs Low to OEM contract manufacturing
and R&D and so on
Look to Seagate as example
FYI
Seagate also closed down Singapore plant in 2009
creating a big hoo har..
everyone was like ...died liao la, Singapore doom liao :doh::doh:
Honestly, I love the word recession... I love the word depression, I love the word economy growth. Why???? OPPORTUNITIES....
hate the word flat, I hate the word stagnant... Why??? NO OPPORTUNITY
let me ask u a question, when did we last get into recession? Do u see us going into recession??? Do u see a recession coming for USA.??
u need to face all this and then u will know is it a good time buy..... And when is a good time to sell....
Do u see QE tapering soon???? Is US and Europe out of the woods???
No one likes the word recession, so let's not use it.
This is quite an obvious peaking phase, where greed is very rampant. You can't smell the fear setting in yet because it is still buried deep within. Personally, I feel that the divergence of these lines has to do with the greed effect, and to me it is a red flag. Emotional people should calm down and regain their composure and thoughts.
Having continuous growth doesn't mean price will go up if the financial vehicle has already been overpriced. An eg. is McDonald stock, where it had record revenues year after year in the 70s or 80s, but its stock price either was flat or retraced during the same period.
Just noticed that the general consensus here is still pretty bullish. Interesting find. Have a great weekend! :D
If you look at the past cycle, usually if property prices Starts correcting, after 2 years, it will trend up again unless it's interrupted by another event whether good or bad, after Asian financial e crisis in 1998, by about 2000 it starts to ten up again, but too bad we hit by crisis after crisis then, for 2008, prices was expected to drop for another 1 year but was interrupted by US bailing out the economy and QE hence the down cycle only 9 months...
If this cycle starts to drop, actually it makes for perfect timing for prices to go on the next run after 2016 election which is about 2 years if we predict market will start to decline in 2014 January
Only a massive regional or global economic crisis can crash singapore property market. At the moment there are none in sight.
you will not worried when you understand Upstream and Downstream
High Tech Manufacturing vs Low to OEM contract manufacturing
and R&D and so on
Look to Seagate as example
I dun understand but Im not worried lah cos Im waiting for a crash :D
I dun understand but Im not worried lah cos Im waiting for a crash :D
Correction maybe la...... crash is not likely unless like what Ringo33 posted
But then again
the big question is do you dare to buy when the time comes
I can only tell you when the time comes and if you post here that you are going in 95% of the forumers will think you are "siao" :)
walkthetiger
16-11-13, 19:31
Only a massive regional or global economic crisis can crash singapore property market. At the moment there are none in sight.
...Hah...I could clearly recall, just few days before those global economic crisis happened, many here were still popping champagne without having a clue what would had happened days after, even LKY said all singaporean was living in "golden era" 2 months before global economic crisis.
It is better to be careful to have some contingency plans.
Correction maybe la...... crash is not likely unless like what Ringo33 posted
But then again
the big question is do you dare to buy when the time comes
I can only tell you when the time comes and if you post here that you are going in 95% of the forumers will think you are "siao" :)
shares crash I dun dare but ppty I 1000% sure I will dare. I dun nid a big crash lah, drop 10% fm current Im contented liao.
Honestly, I love the word recession... I love the word depression, I love the word economy growth. Why???? OPPORTUNITIES....
hate the word flat, I hate the word stagnant... Why??? NO OPPORTUNITY
let me ask u a question, when did we last get into recession? Do u see us going into recession??? Do u see a recession coming for USA.??
u need to face all this and then u will know is it a good time buy..... And when is a good time to sell....
Do u see QE tapering soon???? Is US and Europe out of the woods???
Hehe, so many sub questions in a question.
Your 5 questions can be permutated many ways but serve no purpose in identifying entry/exit opportunities. What you need is a reliable, consistent yet simple system, and not a complicated one.
Market and opportunity is there everyday. HSI and STI should head north next week, and that will be your short term opportunity.
Don't follow news, Media can fit any news to justify the price movement.
shares crash I dun dare but ppty I 1000% sure I will dare. I dun nid a big crash lah, drop 10% fm current Im contented liao.
Mei ren yu arrgghhh
10%:scared-1::scared-1: is not a crash la :doh::doh:
we are all human and we are being bounded by those psychological emotions
Hope for another lemon crisis to buy more. :)
Honestly, I love the word recession... I love the word depression, I love the word economy growth. Why???? OPPORTUNITIES....
hate the word flat, I hate the word stagnant... Why??? NO OPPORTUNITY
let me ask u a question, when did we last get into recession? Do u see us going into recession??? Do u see a recession coming for USA.??
u need to face all this and then u will know is it a good time buy..... And when is a good time to sell....
Do u see QE tapering soon???? Is US and Europe out of the woods???
Mei ren yu arrgghhh
10%:scared-1::scared-1: is not a crash la :doh::doh:
we are all human and we are being bounded by those psychological emotions
I missed the boat once, tats y so LKK den buy 1st ppty. I dun wan to miss again.
shares can a few days/weeks drop 80% n eventually become toilet paper but ppty wun.
Of cos can drop more is a bonus lah, but drop 10% more Im willing to go in liao.
But then again
the big question is do you dare to buy when the time comes
I can only tell you when the time comes and if you post here that you are going in 95% of the forumers will think you are "siao" :)
That is the toughest part. Going through a couple of cycles should build the needed courage though.
I remembered when I bought Noble Group @ 48c in Nov 2008, my hands were trembling when I typed in the password and click the confirm button. I won't forget how difficult it was to execute that particular trade.
Unless you've it planned, I feel that investment property is a tougher call, mermaid is truly a guai tai. Big quantum courageous, small quantum timid.
I missed the boat once, tats y so LKK den buy 1st ppty. I dun wan to miss again.
shares can a few days/weeks drop 80% n eventually become toilet paper but ppty wun.
Of cos can drop more is a bonus lah, but drop 10% more Im willing to go in liao.
Buying shares and property is different
For shares it is easier because $$ outlay not so much and when pay up, that it. You do not need to worry about the monthly instalment la job security la looking for tenant and so on
But hope you can make it when the time comes....Good Luck
That is the toughest part. Going through a couple of cycles should build the needed courage though.
I remembered when I bought Noble Group @ 48c in Nov 2008, my hands were trembling when I typed in the password and click the confirm button. I won't forget how difficult it was to execute that particular trade.
Unless you've it planned, I feel that investment property is a tougher call, mermaid is truly a guai tai. Big quantum courageous, small quantum timid.
you are correct, at 0.48c how much can it drop
usually the most profitable trades are those bought in FEAR :):)
as for STI now.....market seriously "tio siong liao"
no more big player left to support therefore left to the mercy of those prop traders ....biggest player now should be emerging from UOB...watch for it
if you re a trader
Hope for another lemon crisis to buy more. :)
Bro, inflation will be high over the next few years... Do u feel the prices of most things so high now... Those who did not invest the past few years are paying the price now...:scared-3:
Bro, inflation will be high over the next few years... Do u feel the prices of most things so high now... Those who did not invest the past few years are paying the price now...:scared-3:
Think what we are experiencing in recent years is not inflation, but credit bubble building up as a result of cheap credit, and also population ponzi....
That is the toughest part. Going through a couple of cycles should build the needed courage though.
I remembered when I bought Noble Group @ 48c in Nov 2008, my hands were trembling when I typed in the password and click the confirm button. I won't forget how difficult it was to execute that particular trade.
Unless you've it planned, I feel that investment property is a tougher call, mermaid is truly a guai tai. Big quantum courageous, small quantum timid.
No need go so far, I also had reservations when I bought Bank of America 2 years ago and Bank of Ireland 1 year ago.
What you say is true, planning is important. I think it's safer to buy on recovery rather than try to bottom fish.
Think what we are experiencing in recent years is not inflation, but credit bubble building up as a result of cheap credit, and also population ponzi....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation#Related_definitions
Researching on many countries for investment. Be it malaysia, sgp, Sydney, melb, London, Manila, there r common themes.
Oversupply
Unsustainable
Prc investors
Slow growth in wages
Record prices
Low int rates
Liddat how?
shares crash I dun dare but ppty I 1000% sure I will dare. I dun nid a big crash lah, drop 10% fm current Im contented liao.
Wouldn't duo, Inflora , Alex constitute price correction
Wouldn't duo, Inflora , Alex constitute price correction
inflora is lower sqft which leads to lower quantum, not $ correction.
the few new launches after j gateway has moderated slightly but still too high for me.
Im looking at prices such as: mm eg near serangoon mrt at 1200psf.
do u tink it is realistic tis "crash"?
Serangoon is like city fringe and has good amenities and connections, with NEX and the Serangoon interchange. For it to come down to 1200psf, then the whole Singapore condos IMO also has to come down correspondingly. Unless the developer may be a small player, then depending on his purchase price, if bought low, he may be willing to sell low if market is really that bad...
Serangoon is like city fringe and has good amenities and connections, with NEX and the Serangoon interchange. For it to come down to 1200psf, then the whole Singapore condos IMO also has to come down correspondingly. Unless the developer may be a small player, then depending on his purchase price, if bought low, he may be willing to sell low if market is really that bad...
too unrealistic meh?
but cdl launch jewel n bartley ridge abt 1/2 yr ago near mrt the starting $ for mm oni 13xx psf.
Tying up funds in absd and lower ltv are not for me..
at these low ltv, these investors are very buffered from rise in int rates, resulting in a healthy mkt
Researching on many countries for investment. Be it malaysia, sgp, Sydney, melb, London, Manila, there r common themes.
Oversupply
Unsustainable
Prc investors
Slow growth in wages
Record prices
Low int rates
Liddat how?
So how healthy is the investment environment now based on your common themes?
Oversupply---- unhealthy
Unsustainable---- unhealthy
Prc investors---- healthy
Slow growth in wages---- unhealthy
Record prices---- unhealthy
Low int rates---- healthy
2 Healthy
4 Unhealthy
However the price is already reflecting all of these factors. Imagine if its undersupply, sustainable, high growth in wages, on top of prc investor and low interest rate. How expensive would that be?.
Gd point bro.. btw I am reflecting the buzz words that kept appearing in news, research rpts.. and worth noting that some cities r chionging while some are slowing or cooling like sgp.
Gd point bro.. btw I am reflecting the buzz words that kept appearing in news, research rpts.. and worth noting that some cities r chionging while some are slowing or cooling like sgp.
Singapore has small land size and 2016 GE coming up, so government cm policies have big effect on property prices. Also , with the projected 6.9 million population target, and QE going on, property prices have to be controlled if not it would really balloon very fast with hot money from overseas flowing in.
But Singapore property is in a way, a high risk and high return kinda investment...I think better not to put all your eggs in 1 basket ie. all into singapore property but diversify into other asset classes or overseas to be safer...
too unrealistic meh?
but cdl launch jewel n bartley ridge abt 1/2 yr ago near mrt the starting $ for mm oni 13xx psf.
May be possible for you, as I said, if it is a developer who bought land relatively cheap and because of TDSR has to price it lower...
I read in salary.sg forum that some HDB dwellers are even cashing out now to rent for 2 years, foreseeing that prices may correct in 2 years time. But that is playing with the roof over your head and it is not advisable IMO...
Brother....not many ppl like u with cash and passive income to ride on...spare some thoughts for the majority la.
Oppty are there anytime anywhere if you are hungry enough for success. If u are not, no matter when, or even in front of u, u will not capitalize on it. :)
Honestly, I love the word recession... I love the word depression, I love the word economy growth. Why???? OPPORTUNITIES....
hate the word flat, I hate the word stagnant... Why??? NO OPPORTUNITY
May be possible for you, as I said, if it is a developer who bought land relatively cheap and because of TDSR has to price it lower...
I read in salary.sg forum that some HDB dwellers are even cashing out now to rent for 2 years, foreseeing that prices may correct in 2 years time. But that is playing with the roof over your head and it is not advisable IMO...
Don't play with your roof over your head or else will be like Mr B sad case
shares crash I dun dare but ppty I 1000% sure I will dare. I dun nid a big crash lah, drop 10% fm current Im contented liao.
The domino effect of ppty is huge effecting many sectors and industries.
If ppty were to drop 10%, likely your boss may propose a pay cut of 10% too.
The domino effect of ppty is huge effecting many sectors and industries.
If ppty were to drop 10%, likely your boss may propose a pay cut of 10% too.
honestly, I dun mind a 50% pay cut if ppty $ can drop 50% :D
Brother....not many ppl like u with cash and passive income to ride on...spare some thoughts for the majority la.
Oppty are there anytime anywhere if you are hungry enough for success. If u are not, no matter when, or even in front of u, u will not capitalize on it. :)
Bro, I am not born with silver spoon leh....
I just expressing my feeling... I am still amazed that many think major recession will happen again so soon.... We just got out of one.... Hahahahaha
honestly, I dun mind a 50% pay cut if ppty $ can drop 50% :D
If the price of the property now is 1mil.
So when it drop 10%, u buy - 900k. Then it drop to 50%, it means become 500k. U buy another one???
:confused::confused::confused:
Why u need for it to drop 10% then buy???? You just need to invest the monies to get that 10%, then it is like buying at a discount leh... HAHAHAHAHAHA
If the price of the property now is 1mil.
So when it drop 10%, u buy - 900k. Then it drop to 50%, it means become 500k. U buy another one???
:confused::confused::confused:
Why u need for it to drop 10% then buy???? You just need to invest the monies to get that 10%, then it is like buying at a discount leh... HAHAHAHAHAHA
i dun quite get u, but I only intend to buy 1 more.
im not in a hurry to buy cos I juz bought :p so if wait 1-2 yrs while i accum vit m n the price can be 10% cheaper, y not?
wat I means is tat if by getting 50% lesser pay can exchange for a few hundred k savins, y not?
got wat safe investments tat provide 10% yield?
i dun quite get u, but I only intend to buy 1 more.
im not in a hurry to buy cos I juz bought :p so if wait 1-2 yrs while i accum vit m n the price can be 10% cheaper, y not?
wat I means is tat if by getting 50% lesser pay can exchange for a few hundred k savins, y not?
got wat safe investments tat provide 10% yield?
Savings always lose its value with inflation.... Only time cash is all powerful, MAJOR RECESSION.... HAHAHAHAHAHA
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