View Full Version : Huge supply of BTO reaching MOP from 2016
I was checking the supply of BTO and I noticed a huge supply that is coming on stream from 2016 to a frightening 27k units by 2021.
http://www.teoalida.com/singapore/btolist/
darkseed73
10-10-13, 16:15
I was checking the supply of BTO and I noticed a huge supply that is coming on stream from 2016 to a frightening 27k units by 2021.
http://www.teoalida.com/singapore/btolist/
That is why new couples don't buy resale anymore + perm resident restriction = COV prices dropping.
thomastansb
10-10-13, 16:15
That is great news. Singaporeans' dream is to have low HDB prices. I am sure many Singaporeans will be very happy now. They get what they asked for.
I was checking the supply of BTO and I noticed a huge supply that is coming on stream from 2016 to a frightening 27k units by 2021.
http://www.teoalida.com/singapore/btolist/
That is great news. Singaporeans' dream is to have low HDB prices. I am sure many Singaporeans will be very happy now. They get what they asked for.
This is correct. HDB shouldn't be for investment but own stay. But if HDB resale prices are weak, OCR will drop also.
CCR is safer bet as the target buyers are not upgraders.
Correlate it to this... Then u see if it frightening a lot or little
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/publications/publications_and_papers/marriages_and_divorces/keyind%20smd2012.xls
Look at marriages...
In your estimation, how many % of those registered need a hdb??? And how much backlog is there when u compare year on year or whatever???
Correlate it to this... Then u see if it frightening a lot or little
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/publications/publications_and_papers/marriages_and_divorces/keyind%20smd2012.xls
Look at marriages...
In your estimation, how many % of those registered need a hdb??? And how much backlog is there when u compare year on year or whatever???
You have to minus off the divorces of about 7000+ a year also. And parents that sell off their flats due to old age disability or passed away..
You have to minus off the divorces of about 7000+ a year also. And parents that sell off their flats due to old age disability or passed away..
Brudder, divorce - one may keep the house right... So u need to have a % which will still need a house... And the divorce 1 that do not have the house will need to rent or buy or stay with relative rite?? If the divorce couple got kid, will need house lar... Either current or rent or something...
Bro, most old aged wil rent out the flat... They need money leh... Those passed away will pass it on... Tis will comprise the resale.... Now adays, resale volume for hdb also drop... Who want to sell their hdb???
You look at the subscription of flats vs available??? Always oversubscribed...
Bto solved most of the problem with overbuilding... Those who booked, how many opt out at the end??? Btw I don't know got penalty for opting out or not...
But up to u lar... U think over build, than overbuild lor... I not here to convince anyone..l I cannot buy hdb... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
By the way, out of the 25k or so marriages, how many % will apply for new hdb??? Interpolate the numbers....
80/20 rule... There are 80% hdb and 20% private... How many newly married can afford to jump straight into private??? Than count the backlog of those who did not buy hdb and within say 2-3 years time want a hdb either resale or brand new.... Scary leh...
I don't think BTO will be over supplied. There are foreigners that HDB indirectly has always been renting to and there is always a big demand for the rental units. If there are excess supplies, they can be channeled into the rental market and also act as buffer stock for any surge in demand.
I don't think BTO will be over supplied. There are foreigners that HDB indirectly has always been renting to and there is always a big demand for the rental units. If there are excess supplies, they can be channeled into the rental market and also act as buffer stock for any surge in demand.
I'm not referring to oversupply of BTO. In the past, people will fake marriages to buy a flat, but nowadays people don't even need to get married to choose a flat, even singles can buy.
I'm talking about the oversupply of resale HDB properties come 2016 onwards.
vote for PAP in 2016 to let them import more foreigners?
vote for PAP in 2016 to let them import more foreigners?
I thot they close the tap to foreigners, economy siong, people will vote for them??? Hahahahaha
I thot they close the tap to foreigners, economy siong, people will vote for them??? Hahahahaha
tap can open anytime:rolleyes:
Violinbite
11-10-13, 07:46
I don't think BTO will be over supplied. There are foreigners that HDB indirectly has always been renting to and there is always a big demand for the rental units. If there are excess supplies, they can be channeled into the rental market and also act as buffer stock for any surge in demand.
I too think BTO is not exactly oversupplied. Perhaps any inbalance will be absorbed by the market, its about efficiency of the takeup rate. Really can't speculate too much. If the govt being fulltime monitoring day in day out can't deliver an ideal result, I think its hard for anyone not doing a full spectrum of case study to be real efficient. - I think the good part is that govt is making moves to accomodate the market, and not us trying to move govt hands.:) Basically, to see rental being viable, more influx of foreigners are necessary, though still achievable through sychronized supply of housing in the course of time. To bring in foreigners is just a click of fingers, but to build housing takes some years. 2015-2016 will have surprises, but I ll not look at it all bad.:)
Violinbite
11-10-13, 07:50
Any wise men have any data on how many 4 or 5 rms HDBs being sublet as a whole unit, instead of just rooms?
I was checking the supply of BTO and I noticed a huge supply that is coming on stream from 2016 to a frightening 27k units by 2021.
http://www.teoalida.com/singapore/btolist/
So what happen when their flat reach the MOP? They no longer require a roof, or they are all going to sell and move to PC?
IMO, with the TOP of units in 2015/2016, those condos which are bought substantially by hdb upgraders will likely to move into condo and leasing out their hdb flats since it has better rental yield. Rental of condos in these areas will face stiffer competition as they are competiting with lower hdbs rental rate.
I too think BTO is not exactly oversupplied. Perhaps any inbalance will be absorbed by the market, its about efficiency of the takeup rate. Really can't speculate too much. If the govt being fulltime monitoring day in day out can't deliver an ideal result, I think its hard for anyone not doing a full spectrum of case study to be real efficient. - I think the good part is that govt is making moves to accomodate the market, and not us trying to move govt hands.:) Basically, to see rental being viable, more influx of foreigners are necessary, though still achievable through sychronized supply of housing in the course of time. To bring in foreigners is just a click of fingers, but to build housing takes some years. 2015-2016 will have surprises, but I ll not look at it all bad.:)
Bto solved most of the problem with overbuilding... Those who booked, how many opt out at the end??? Btw I don't know got penalty for opting out or not.....
this is the key point about BTO. built to order leh. no order, no built. there wun be a serious oversupply. but question is whether that small margin of oversupply will be absorbed by new immigrants after 2016 and other parameters. if you ask me, whatever small pockets of oversupply will be gone once MIW get their mandate in 2016.
I'm not referring to oversupply of BTO. In the past, people will fake marriages to buy a flat, but nowadays people don't even need to get married to choose a flat, even singles can buy.
I'm talking about the oversupply of resale HDB properties come 2016 onwards.
there will always be PR, private owners, etc waiting on the sidelines to buy resale HDB. once COV reaches zero across the island, this is the equilibrium point. if govt want to install heating measure, just allow the rich private owners to once again be allowed to buy HDB. you see the resale price cheong or not.
my HDB rental yield is 15%pa based on historical price. even at today's buying, it is 8.5% return. HDB resale will NEVER die, once cooling measures are lifted.
IMO, with the TOP of units in 2015/2016, those condos which are bought substantially by hdb upgraders will likely to move into condo and leasing out their hdb flats since it has better rental yield. Rental of condos in these areas will face stiffer competition as they are competiting with lower hdbs rental rate.
Yes, flood of hdb flats is one possibility, but also subject to HDB approval.
If economy is not doing well, which looks like the case with tapering and QE reduction by 2016, upgraders will also be dumping their BTO in the resale market.
Yes, flood of hdb flats is one possibility, but also subject to HDB approval.
If economy is not doing well, which looks like the case with tapering and QE reduction by 2016, upgraders will also be dumping their BTO in the resale market.
But thats the goal of the govt.... To make sure the prices do not go on a runaway..... If not prices will just escalate leh....
All the measure are to ensure affordability of the properties to the masses... 80% of the people stay in HDB.... So the govt needs to make it affordable rite??? So if it affordable, will private go on a runaway...
If you look at the past trend, prices tend to escalate when HDB prices go up... So there will be an upgrade path for private... But under what circumstances does this happen???
1. Demand more than supply
2. Economy doing well...
People tend to buy/upgrade when economy doing well because risk is minimised with job security and pay increment/bonuses...
Thats the herd instinct...
;)
So you are rite, when things look bad, prices will drop - stocks first followed by cars, then properties...
So predicting the economy worsening is the key....
Look at US, Europe - Economy down because biz down, companies downsize, people cannot tahan, sell their props at lower prices...
For the case of US, sub prime did them in because the prices of the properties were rediculous....
IMO, with the TOP of units in 2015/2016, those condos which are bought substantially by hdb upgraders will likely to move into condo and leasing out their hdb flats since it has better rental yield. Rental of condos in these areas will face stiffer competition as they are competiting with lower hdbs rental rate.
Bro, if this people dont move into their condo and decide to stay in their hdb, the impact will be better or worse for the rental market of the condos???
I feel the rental of the condos will suffer even more...
;)
Garment will close both eyes in the approval as it is so close to or in 2016.
Yes, flood of hdb flats is one possibility, but also subject to HDB approval.
If economy is not doing well, which looks like the case with tapering and QE reduction by 2016, upgraders will also be dumping their BTO in the resale market.
For selfish reason, I would prefer them to lease their hdb flats. But it still boils down to location looking at the tough time of the late 90s and SARs period.
Bro, if this people dont move into their condo and decide to stay in their hdb, the impact will be better or worse for the rental market of the condos???
I feel the rental of the condos will suffer even more...
;)
But thats the goal of the govt.... To make sure the prices do not go on a runaway..... If not prices will just escalate leh....
All the measure are to ensure affordability of the properties to the masses... 80% of the people stay in HDB.... So the govt needs to make it affordable rite??? So if it affordable, will private go on a runaway...
The goal of the govt:
1. Make hay while the sun shines - Make as much money as possible by selling BTO flats, condos land, so that someone can have more gambling money.
2. Increase population to 6.9 million - this requires another new 600,000 flats. The quicker the better, while we still can get sand and cheap bangla workers. If China can build ghost towns, waiting for people to come in, why can't Singapore?
3. Temper inflation to win the 2016 election.
The goal of the govt:
1. Make hay while the sun shines - Make as much money as possible by selling BTO flats, condos land, so that someone can have more gambling money.
2. Increase population to 6.9 million - this requires another new 600,000 flats. The quicker the better, while we still can get sand and cheap bangla workers. If China can build ghost towns, waiting for people to come in, why can't Singapore?
3. Temper inflation to win the 2016 election.
The govt selling BTO quite cheap leh.... If they sell higher, they make more money rite????
As for GLS, agreeable... But the developers all damn siong... They dont make the kind of money they used to make... HAhahaha good for "consumers"...
As for the 6.9 million... they are indeed tapering hor.... Look at 2013 vs 2012 results on population increase...
Cheers......
For selfish reason, I would prefer them to lease their hdb flats. But it still boils down to location looking at the tough time of the late 90s and SARs period.
Actually I wasnt so badly affected during SARS and 90s.... Just that rental dropped.... But it gave me opportunities after that.... Many did not capitalise on that.... Because they got bitten....
Yup. Like you have said property investment is for long term and tenants have also helped to fully paid up my property. Looking forward to more tenants to help to fulfill my dream.
Actually I wasnt so badly affected during SARS and 90s.... Just that rental dropped.... But it gave me opportunities after that.... Many did not capitalise on that.... Because they got bitten....
The govt selling BTO quite cheap leh.... If they sell higher, they make more money rite????
As for GLS, agreeable... But the developers all damn siong... They dont make the kind of money they used to make... HAhahaha good for "consumers"...
As for the 6.9 million... they are indeed tapering hor.... Look at 2013 vs 2012 results on population increase...
Cheers......
Singapore got lots of taxes that developers need to pay, from income tax to ERP to worker's levy and many other costs from companies run by government. The amount govt earns is more than just land price.
This time round a bit diff from previous time. Almost no one believes property prices will drop. This didn't happen previously.
We're treading on uncharted waters.
Singapore got lots of taxes that developers need to pay, from income tax to ERP to worker's levy and many other costs from companies run by government. The amount govt earns is more than just land price.
This time round a bit diff from previous time. Almost no one believes property prices will drop. This didn't happen previously.
We're treading on uncharted waters.
what made you think many people think property prices will not drop....
Everything has a cycle.... You just need a recession to trigger a property price drop.... The question is when????
but when there is a recession in Singapore, would there be opportunities in other countries????
what made you think many people think property prices will not drop....
Everything has a cycle.... You just need a recession to trigger a property price drop.... The question is when????
but when there is a recession in Singapore, would there be opportunities in other countries????
The majority people think that the downside will be limited, maybe drop 10-15% and can even rise if the cooling measures are removed.
China is already in recession. Chinese manufacturers can't even earn money from their manufacturing business, they are just borrowing from banks, siphon off cash to invest in property - the only thing that still makes money in China and attracts all the cash.
Recently, I've read that electronic gadgets sales, TV, camera, camcorder and almost electronic sales are plunging across the board. With LED TV, there's no incentive to upgrade, 3D TV sucks, smart phone cams are now almost as good as most digital cameras. There's no need to upgrade the laptop also, as long as it still works, Windows 7 is cool.
The majority people think that the downside will be limited, maybe drop 10-15% and can even rise if the cooling measures are removed.
China is already in recession. Chinese manufacturers can't even earn money from their manufacturing business, they are just borrowing from banks, siphon off cash to invest in property - the only thing that still makes money in China and attracts all the cash.
Recently, I've read that electronic gadgets sales, TV, camera, camcorder and almost electronic sales are plunging across the board. With LED TV, there's no incentive to upgrade, 3D TV sucks, smart phone cams are now almost as good as most digital cameras. There's no need to upgrade the laptop also, as long as it still works, Windows 7 is cool.
If you think it is going down soon... Then sell some lor... But dont sell all OK... If you are wrong, at least you are partially vested... If you sell all and things dont go downhill, u kanna stuck....
How to predict???
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