US GOV MAY SHUT DOWN...

[blackjack21trader]

DOW CRASH BIG TIME IF THAT HAPPENS.

Good Luck.

[blackjack21trader]

warned you guys last month be careful of the OLD FOX. But say I siaolang and call me idiot instead of thanking me.


http://kuow.org/post/deja-vu-look-back-last-shutdowns-photos

[blackjack21trader]

This old fox likes to surprise people. If the Old fox found out that there is no surprise element in the news, it will retract what it says and find another news that will ultimately surprise the market big time.

Now you see this shutdown news the expected outcome is market drop tobio?If it finds out market expected this result, it will retract and then find another news to announce. but due to past experiences, market only drop like 2-4% tiobo during Clinton's time. Then hor, if it discovers market expected this drop, it will then retract the news and find another one. And it goes on and on and on and on until one fine day THE BIG ONE SHALL ARRIVE to the least expectation of the market tiobo?

You know why I talk like Hokkien peng in this forum? To avoid the stupid AI detection of the old fox's spy computer la, tiobo? The fox has a super computer system to track market expectation and reaction to the news la...no Third Eye like me, tiobo ?

Now I tell you liao, hope no drones hovering outside my window now tiobo?

[sherlock]

Aiyah bro, this is a KNOWN known... wont cause plunge one. Its the unknowns that usually trip the market

[blackjack21trader]

Aiyah bro, this is a KNOWN known... wont cause plunge one. Its the unknowns that usually trip the market

yes brother, that is what i meant see above, good brother :)

[chestnut]

Definition: A stock market crash is whenever the stock market loses more than 10% in a day or two. This differentiates it from a stock market correction, which is usually a loss of 10% or less over many days. You can measure the percentage losses in a stock market crash with any of the major stock market indices: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ.

May I propose u use the sentence...

Dow correction on the way or something like that....

When u say crash, it refers to > 10% losses....

I pointing out just in case u may not know.... But if u still insist it will be a crash, at least I knows mean > 10% drop....


:rolleyes:

[chiaberry]

In the past, there were Singaporeans who covet the Green Card to live and work in the US. Now people tell me that there are many Singaporeans who gave up the Green Card recently.

Those Singaporean males who pon NS and went to US to hide out now regret for the rest of their lives as they cannot return home.

So....don't encourage your sons to go disappear from the country to avoid NS.....encourage them to serve. So that they can always return to Singapore in future if they need to and not have to be exiled from their own home country.

[teddybear]

Yes, the trend is indicating this. The main driver is the high tax rate in US. Singapore has become tax heaven for those US tax evaders. Of course, the tax evaders will disagree with me and argue that they are doing it legally and make full use of the situations/circumstances. :p



In the past, there were Singaporeans who covet the Green Card to live and work in the US. Now people tell me that there are many Singaporeans who gave up the Green Card recently.

Those Singaporean males who pon NS and went to US to hide out now regret for the rest of their lives as they cannot return home.

So....don't encourage your sons to go disappear from the country to avoid NS.....encourage them to serve. So that they can always return to Singapore in future if they need to and not have to be exiled from their own home country.

[teddybear]

Just like they keep saying tapering coming then suddenly in Sep they say no taper! Caught many off-guard & burn a big hole in their pocket! :banghead:



This old fox likes to surprise people. If the Old fox found out that there is no surprise element in the news, it will retract what it says and find another news that will ultimately surprise the market big time.

Now you see this shutdown news the expected outcome is market drop tobio?If it finds out market expected this result, it will retract and then find another news to announce. but due to past experiences, market only drop like 2-4% tiobo during Clinton's time. Then hor, if it discovers market expected this drop, it will then retract the news and find another one. And it goes on and on and on and on until one fine day THE BIG ONE SHALL ARRIVE to the least expectation of the market tiobo?

You know why I talk like Hokkien peng in this forum? To avoid the stupid AI detection of the old fox's spy computer la, tiobo? The fox has a super computer system to track market expectation and reaction to the news la...no Third Eye like me, tiobo ?

Now I tell you liao, hope no drones hovering outside my window now tiobo?

[chiaberry]

Yes, the trend is indicating this. The main driver is the high tax rate in US. Singapore has become tax heaven for those US tax evaders. Of course, the tax evaders will disagree with me and argue that they are doing it legally and make full use of the situations/circumstances. :p

I believe they are taxed on world-wide income if they hold the Green Card.

They will call it "tax-planning".

[teddybear]

As long as you are still a US citizen, you will be taxed on their US tax rate regardless you are working in US or Singapore. Didn't you know that many US citizen have given up their citizenship nowadays.


I believe they are taxed on world-wide income if they hold the Green Card.

They will call it "tax-planning".

[blackjack21trader]

In the past, there were Singaporeans who covet the Green Card to live and work in the US. Now people tell me that there are many Singaporeans who gave up the Green Card recently.

Those Singaporean males who pon NS and went to US to hide out now regret for the rest of their lives as they cannot return home.

So....don't encourage your sons to go disappear from the country to avoid NS.....encourage them to serve. So that they can always return to Singapore in future if they need to and not have to be exiled from their own home country.

well said, good sister :) your words are music to my ears.

[blackjack21trader]

Just like they keep saying tapering coming then suddenly in Sep they say no taper! Caught many off-guard & burn a big hole in their pocket! :banghead:

ya lor...including me also kena la....VERY YIN XIAN LA ! :banghead::banghead::banghead:

[radha08]

until today nobody know what the fox say....:cool::D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jofNR_WkoCE

[proud owner]

I believe they are taxed on world-wide income if they hold the Green Card.

They will call it "tax-planning".


its call Global Taxation

its not all bad ...



if you are taxed say 40 pct in USA and then you work in UK which taxes you 45 pct ... you actually get a "credit back" ...

should you later move to a lower than 45 pct country .. you can 'nett' off..



also ...yes there are Americans who gave up their citizenships.. but there are many who are taking up green card... to a point they have to put a cap on Green card applications from certain countries...

if you know of 1 American person...and he gives up his citizenship .. that 100 pct of American you know that does so..

if you know of 20 Americans and 1 gives up .. that's a much smaller pct ...

so when one say ...they know of MANY americans giving up ... how accurate is that ?

[blackjack21trader]

its call Global Taxation

its not all bad ...



if you are taxed say 40 pct in USA and then you work in UK which taxes you 45 pct ... you actually get a "credit back" ...

should you later move to a lower than 45 pct country .. you can 'nett' off..

......
if you know of 20 Americans and 1 gives up .. that's a much smaller pct ...

so when one say ...they know of MANY americans giving up ... how accurate is that ?

brother proud_owner, do u have info of how many % americans giving up US citizenship come to Singapore?

[blackjack21trader]

also any brother have info on how the interest rates behave during the Clinton's time. Does that small brother phantom opera or chestnut have any info, I thought they should contribute this info since they appear like machiam very knowledgable .

:)

[blackjack21trader]

until today nobody know what the fox say....:cool::D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jofNR_WkoCE

LOL funny ! Nice MV otherwise :)

[sherlock]

until today nobody know what the fox say....:cool::D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jofNR_WkoCE

The fox say You must always have a Plan B! :cool:

[blackjack21trader]

also any brother have info on how the interest rates behave during the Clinton's time. Does that small brother phantom opera or chestnut have any info, I thought they should contribute this info since they appear like machiam very knowledgable .

:)

see ? told u guys that phantom and chestnut very xiao qi one (petty ). Scold a bit cannot take it, the pride hurts so much that they act blur when I ask them for assistance.

Very xiao qi like girlie la.

[teddybear]

Let's put it this way. The ones who gave up and took up other citizenship so that they can enjoy the tax incentives are high net worth ones because they have more to gain la. US gain many ordinary people but lose those high net worth one. base your figure, 20 Americans (ordinary people) and 1 (high net worth) gives up, so the overall is favorable or not?


its call Global Taxation

its not all bad ...



if you are taxed say 40 pct in USA and then you work in UK which taxes you 45 pct ... you actually get a "credit back" ...

should you later move to a lower than 45 pct country .. you can 'nett' off..



also ...yes there are Americans who gave up their citizenships.. but there are many who are taking up green card... to a point they have to put a cap on Green card applications from certain countries...

if you know of 1 American person...and he gives up his citizenship .. that 100 pct of American you know that does so..

if you know of 20 Americans and 1 gives up .. that's a much smaller pct ...

so when one say ...they know of MANY americans giving up ... how accurate is that ?

[princess_morbucks]

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/09/29/politics/shutdown-showdown/index.html?eref=edition&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=cnni

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

The House passes a spending plan with two anti-Obamacare amendments
The House also pushed through a bill to guarantee military pay if shutdown happens
The Senate does not plan to meet Sunday, leaving only Monday to avert a shutdown
The White House says President Barack Obama would veto the amended House plan-------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Washington (CNN) -- In a move that makes a government shutdown very likely, House Republicans approved a spending plan early Sunday morning that would delay Obamacare for a year and repeal its tax on medical devices.
The temporary budget resolution now goes back to the Senate, where Democrats have consistently said any changes to President Barack Obama's signature healthcare law is a deal-killer.
On top of that, Obama has already issued a veto threat.
If Washington can't reach a deal, a government shutdown will begin at 12:01 a.m. Tuesday.
"The Republicans' first try was to defund Obamacare. Now they are slowly chipping away at it," said Dana Bash, CNN's chief congressional correspondent. "They want the president to negotiate. That is their line: the president needs to come to the table and negotiate."
A Senate Democratic source told CNN there were no plans for the Senate to meet before Monday -- the day the current fiscal year ends.
Congress could avert a shutdown by passing a temporary spending measure while the two chambers work out their differences. But neither side is talking about that now.
"I've not talked to anybody here who doesn't think it's a very, very big possibility, even Republicans, that the government won't shut down -- even for a short time," Bash said.
Going after the tax
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/130929003914-house-vote-sept-29-obamacare-story-body.jpgHouse chips away at Obamacare
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/130927175816-tsr-dnt-lawrence-fate-of-government-workers-00002115-story-body.jpgWhat happens to workers during shutdown?
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/130926212649-ac-gvmt-shutdown-bash-intv-00001504-story-body.jpgCongress in crisis mode
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/130926204532-boehner-cu-gi-story-body.jpgGovernment shutdown 3 days away
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/121231115730-capitol-hill-story-body.jpgU.S. faces shutdown, debt ceiling
The decision to vote on the House amendments overnight emerged from a rare weekend GOP caucus meeting called by House Speaker John Boehner. The votes, taken after midnight, were 232-192 for the Obamacare delay, and 248-174 for the medical device tax repeal, mostly along party lines.
Two Democrats broke rank and voted for the Obamacare delay: Mike McIntyre of North Carolina, and Jim Matheson of Iowa.
Seventeen Democrats voted for the tax repeal.
Meanwhile, a bill to guarantee pay for military personnel during any shutdown passed 423-0.
House Republicans had said they wanted to stop as much of the president's health law as possible. The medical device tax is one of the more controversial taxes in the law, with Republicans saying it sends jobs overseas.
Democrats, particularly those from states or districts with medical device manufacturers, have spoken out against the tax.
"Republicans have pointed out over and over the entire day that many Democrats in the Senate are already on record voting for this repeal," Bash said late Sunday night. "So that's why they're trying to put Democrats there in a box."
"But we're already being told by Democratic sources in the Senate that they feel they're going to keep all of their Senators in line," she said.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid called the Republican strategy "pointless" and said the Democratic-led Senate would reject the GOP alternatives. The White House said Obama would veto the House proposal if it reached his desk.
A separate White House statement said voting for the GOP measure "is voting for a shutdown."
Partisan back and forth
The back and forth over the spending plan -- called a continuing resolution in legislative jargon -- began Friday when House Republicans stripped all funding for Obamacare (http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/20/politics/congress-spending-showdown/index.html) from their original version and sent it to the Senate.
The Senate, where Democrats hold a slim majority, restored the funding, and kicked the plan back to the House.
On Saturday, Boehner convened his caucus to forge a counteroffer to the Senate changes.
House Republicans added an amendment that will fund the government until December, a month longer than the Senate version. They also added a "conscience clause" to the one-year delay amendment to allow employers and insurance plans to refuse to cover birth control.
Keeping military pay
In a sign that the House Republicans don't expect the Senate to accept their changes, House leaders held a separate vote to ensure that the military gets paid in the event of a government shutdown.
Officials estimate the military pay could be affected by a shutdown as soon as October 14, and the GOP move was considered a political gesture to shield the party from criticism that its brinksmanship could hurt U.S. fighting forces.
But on the spending plan, Reid said the Republican tactics amounted to what he described as extortion by "tea party anarchists."
"To be absolutely clear, the Senate will reject both the one-year delay of the Affordable Care Act and the repeal of the medical device tax," Reid said in a statement. "After weeks of futile political games from Republicans, we are still at square one."
White House spokesman Jay Carney, added that Obama would not negotiate on Obamacare or spending issues "under threats of a government shutdown that will hurt our economy."
Shutdown looms
Reid previously warned that any changes to the Senate's version by the House would result in at least the start of a government shutdown because of the time it would take to reconsider the proposal.
Republican Rep. Michael Grimm of New York said Saturday a "slight" shutdown could occur due to the little time left to pass a short-term spending plan for the new fiscal year that starts Tuesday.
"I'm hoping no, but just look at the timing," Grimm said, laying out a scenario in which the political wrangling leads to last-minute deliberations on Monday and beyond.
The prospect of a government shutdown caused by GOP tactics irked the longest serving member of Congress in history, Democratic Rep. John Dingell of Michigan, who said in a statement that "this once-deliberative body has been taken over by knaves and know-nothings, content with putting partisan politics ahead of the American people."
Obama not backing down
Tea party conservatives want to halt Obamacare now, just as full implementation of its individual health care exchanges begins in the new fiscal year starting Tuesday.
More moderate Republicans, such as veteran Sens. John McCain of Arizona and John Cornyn of Texas, criticize the strategy of tying a government shutdown to undermining the health care reform law passed by Democrats in 2010 and upheld by the Supreme Court last year.
Obama said Friday that new exchanges for private health insurance under the reforms will open this week as scheduled -- even if there is a government shutdown.
"The House Republicans are so concerned with appeasing the tea party that they have threatened a government shutdown or worse unless I gut or repeal the Affordable Care Act," Obama said. "That's not going to happen."
Political fallout
Even if the government were to shut down, Obamacare would probably continue anyway. That's because most of the funding for Obamacare comes from new taxes and fees as well as from cost cuts to other programs like Medicare and other types of funding that carry on even in the event of a government shutdown.
Congress' research arm, the Congressional Research service, prepared a memo for Republican Sen. Tom Coburn, R-Oklahoma, that suggested an effort to use the government shutdown as leverage to force Democrats to delay implementing the law would not really work because the law will continue regardless of a shutdown.
Plus, the law would still be in effect, so its many new requirements -- everything from forcing insurance companies to cover anyone who wants insurance to requiring Americans to carry health insurance or pay a fine -- would still be in effect, too.
Republican leaders in both chambers don't want a shutdown now over the spending issue, for political and negotiating reasons.
They fear the optics of Republicans being blamed for a shutdown, and also want to exert as much leverage as possible for the GOP's agenda at the upcoming deadline to raise the federal debt limit.
The debt ceiling
The shutdown showdown comes a few weeks before another fiscal deadline -- the need to raise the nation's debt ceiling so the government can pay all its bills.
Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said last week the limit on how much the government can borrow must be increased by October 17 or the nation could be technically in default.
Analysts warn of severe economic impact from any doubt cast over whether the U.S. would fail to meet its debt obligations. A similar bout of congressional brinksmanship over the debt ceiling in 2011 led to the first-ever downgrade of the U.S. credit rating.
Boehner faces the same rift in his caucus over the debt ceiling issue, with tea party conservatives pushing to undermine Obamacare and fulfill other Republican priorities in return for what Obama calls the responsibility of Congress to make sure America can pay its bills.
On Thursday, Boehner had to delay introducing a GOP debt ceiling plan after conservatives complained the proposed package failed to include enough budget cuts and significant changes to entitlement programs.
The initial proposal by House GOP leaders, which would raise the debt ceiling for a year, included a one-year delay of Obamacare, provisions to roll back regulations on businesses, tax reforms and approval of the Keystone XL oil pipeline.


CNN's David Simpson, Jim Acosta, Z. Byron Wolf, Lisa Desjardins, Ted Barrett and Deirdre Walsh contributed to this report.

[newbie11]

Now Italian govt in limbo too. Sept to Oct really jinx

[star]

Shut down is unlikely. Good time to pick some stocks up.

[princess_morbucks]

Shut down is unlikely. Good time to pick some stocks up.

I tot it is very likely to shut down.
Anyway it has shutdown 17 times since 1976, so it is nothing new.

[blackjack21trader]

I tot it is very likely to shut down.
Anyway it has shutdown 17 times since 1976, so it is nothing new.

Of course, except this time it may shut down for more than 2 weeks. Then open for a few days, then shut down for a few more weeks.

Just My Humble Opinion Only.

[princess_morbucks]

Of course, except this time it may shut down for more than 2 weeks. Then open for a few days, then shut down for a few more weeks.

Just My Humble Opinion Only.

Hi bro BJ, glad to see you back and recovered from OD :)!

Why is it different this time?
Why the intermittent shut down?
Btw if shut down means no school also, rite?

[azeoprop]

Got closing down warehouse sales? :D

[sherlock]

Got closing down warehouse sales? :D

Got got. Airforce One for sale :p

[blackjack21trader]

Hi bro BJ, glad to see you back and recovered from OD :)!

Why is it different this time?
Why the intermittent shut down?
Btw if shut down means no school also, rite?

Because this time round, the debt is humongous.

[chestnut]

http://news.yahoo.com/heres-truth-government-doesnt-shut-down-155624428--politics.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/30/usa-fiscal-idUSL1N0HQ0NO20130930

Correlate to this

http://www.parliament.gov.sg/leader-house

[princess_morbucks]

About 1.5 hours to go before the deadline.

Live coverage of the countdown to the deadline :

http://live.independent.co.uk/Event/US_shutdown_Live_coverage_of_the_countdown_to_the_deadline

[princess_morbucks]

I spoke with a relative in New York...he said no one really cares about the shutdown.
In fact, he was sleeping when I whatsapp him earlier on.

[princess_morbucks]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-24306152

Video: US government shutdown explained in 60 seconds

[Allthepies]

Think shut down liao, but STI cheong

[Simi]

Think shut down liao, but STI cheong


99.9% shut down

unless last minute changes
After this event, next one is the Debt Ceiling on 17th Oct

going to be volatile and Bears definitely have the upper hand
Corrections not over yet...might still go lower low


But I take it as a catalyst for the Next Bull Run to New High

[chestnut]

99.9% shut down

unless last minute changes
After this event, next one is the Debt Ceiling on 17th Oct

going to be volatile and Bears definitely have the upper hand
Corrections not over yet...might still go lower low


But I take it as a catalyst for the Next Bull Run to New High

Bro, agree...... This is a very important date....

But if it is not passed, things will get ugly..... But when things get ugly, how to pull the plug off tapering????

So being opportunistic, you should know what to do rite.... :D:D:D:D

[Simi]

Bro, agree...... This is a very important date....

But if it is not passed, things will get ugly..... But when things get ugly, how to pull the plug off tapering????

So being opportunistic, you should know what to do rite.... :D:D:D:D

Brother

Not only opportunistic but also be Brave

Market favour the Brave :scared-2:
sometimes got to buy when whole market is selling like no tomorrow :scared-5:

[azeoprop]

U.S. govt shuts down as efforts to break logjam fail

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/deadlocked-congress-takes-u-govt-brink-shutdown-003343571--business.html

[star]

Brother

Not only opportunistic but also be Brave

Market favour the Brave :scared-2:
sometimes got to buy when whole market is selling like no tomorrow :scared-5:

The brave one is those that buy now. Nobody dare right? So market continue up.

[Simi]

The brave one is those that buy now. Nobody dare right? So market continue up.


Hi star

you are right

buy when market are fearful

cheers !!!

[proud owner]

Let's put it this way. The ones who gave up and took up other citizenship so that they can enjoy the tax incentives are high net worth ones because they have more to gain la. US gain many ordinary people but lose those high net worth one. base your figure, 20 Americans (ordinary people) and 1 (high net worth) gives up, so the overall is favorable or not?


I am merely responding to those who said " Many americans they know are giving up citizenship" ..

I have 3 americans friends living and working in Singapore ... they like it there ..but when I posed the question of taking up Spore citizenship ... they all said they WONT ...

but I am sure there are others whom I am not acquainted to WOULD ..

hence my analogy ... know 1 American who does and that's the only 1 you know does not mean 100 pct is giving up..

knowing 2 americans and 1 giving up does not mean 50 pct is giving up ...

[blackjack21trader]

who the or-sim guy asked me to take triple dosage of my antidepressant, 3 days never PANG-SAI liao la. :(

[princess_morbucks]

who the or-sim guy asked me to take triple dosage of my antidepressant, 3 days never PANG-SAI liao la. :(

You try eating or-knee.
I heard it is a good laxative.:D

[chestnut]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-rebound-from-multi-week-lows-2013-10-01-91034343?siteid=yhoof2

Shut down is not the issue... Look for oct 17.... Will it be a repeat of 2011... U decide... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2013/09/government_shutdown_versus_the_debt_ceiling_why_hitting_the_debt_limit_is.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt-ceiling_crisis_of_2011

[minority]

MArket where got crash. shares went up!!!!

[blackjack21trader]

MArket where got crash. shares went up!!!!

STI 3174 -0.23%
NIKKEI 14170 -2.17%

[star]

Can look out for some bargains if it continues to drop.

[Simi]

Can look out for some bargains if it continues to drop.


to hunt for strong counter in a weak market or company with a strong Fundamental ?

btw : I am weak in fundamental stock :(

[star]

to hunt for strong counter in a weak market or company with a strong Fundamental ?

btw : I am weak in fundamental stock :(

Bro Simi, I already gave up on singapore stock market. It is like an old man.
Drop can drop alot, climb back need months or years or never.

[Simi]

Bro Simi, I already gave up on singapore stock market. It is like an old man.
Drop can drop alot, climb back need months or years or never.


Hi star

agreed with you

Singapore stock market is too small and easily controlled by the MM (Market Maker)
the other element is the trading curb and restriction placed by certain house and this usually caused a counter to crash(price gap down)...which is a traders nightmare

with these in mind...also need close monitoring and can be tiring after a while staring at the screen

[cbsh38584]

Let make investing simple.

1. Money is made by sitting, not trading all the time


2. It takes time to make money. Just be very patience.

3. There is a time for all things, but you & I don't know when.
But we know that when there extreme fear in the mkt. It is the time.
Herd investing is a guarantee for failure.

4. Never trust the SG stock analyst/stock Guru etc, Western stock analyst like Goldman Sach , Citibank, Credit Sui , UBS etc , Western Guru like Jim Roger , George Soros , Marc Faber , Bill Gross etc , your friends ,your coleagues , your relatives etc etc to buy/sell stocks. They got the timing wrong most of the time. Stock market is a big casino. The only way to have a better chance to make money is to be patience. ONLY TRUST "FEAR". TRUST ONLY "FEAR".


Fool me ONCE , shame on YOU. Fool me TWICE, shame on ME. Fool me the 3RD TIME, so STUPID I am. Fool me the FOURTH TIME, I need to be CONDEMN. Fool me the FIFTTH TIME, SIX TIME ... I am really hopeless.

rdgs,
Vic

[Simi]

Let make investing simple.

1. Money is made by sitting, not trading all the time


2. It takes time to make money. Just be very patience.

3. There is a time for all things, but you & I don't know when.
But we know that when there extreme fear in the mkt. It is the time.
Herd investing is a guarantee for failure.

4. Never trust the SG stock analyst/stock Guru etc, Western stock analyst like Goldman Sach , Citibank, Credit Sui , UBS etc , Western Guru like Jim Roger , George Soros , Marc Faber , Bill Gross etc , your friends ,your coleagues , your relatives etc etc to buy/sell stocks. They got the timing wrong most of the time. Stock market is a big casino. The only way to have a better chance to make money is to be patience. ONLY TRUST "FEAR". TRUST ONLY "FEAR".


Fool me ONCE , shame on YOU. Fool me TWICE, shame on ME. Fool me the 3RD TIME, so STUPID I am. Fool me the FOURTH TIME, I need to be CONDEMN. Fool me the FIFTTH TIME, SIX TIME ... I am really hopeless.

rdgs,
Vic






Hi cbsh38584

A psychological game on Fear Greed and Hope

[cbsh38584]

We don't bother whether Larry Summer or Larry Spring will be the FED chairman. We don't bother whether there is NO or HV tapering. We don't bother whether the US will shutdown. We don't bother because we really DONT KNOW.

But we know that when we patiently wait for the extreme FEAR in the market to come. It is time to pick up some BLUE chip stock.


Waiting is our most crucial job.
"If victory isn't assured, revealing your strength is the most foolish move to make."


Rdgs,
Vic

[Simi]

We don't bother whether Larry Summer or Larry Spring will be the FED chairman. We don't bother whether there is NO or HV tapering. We don't bother whether the US will shutdown. We don't bother because we really DONT KNOW.

But we know that when we patiently wait for the extreme FEAR in the market to come. It is time to pick up some BLUE chip stock.


Waiting is our most crucial job.
"If victory isn't assured, revealing your strength is the most foolish move to make."


Rdgs,
Vic






Hi Vic

Keep them coming and rolling in

very refreshing reading your anecdotes :ashamed1:

[cherryfrenz]

We don't bother whether Larry Summer or Larry Spring will be the FED chairman. We don't bother whether there is NO or HV tapering. We don't bother whether the US will shutdown. We don't bother because we really DONT KNOW.

But we know that when we patiently wait for the extreme FEAR in the market to come. It is time to pick up some BLUE chip stock.


Waiting is our most crucial job.
"If victory isn't assured, revealing your strength is the most foolish move to make."


Rdgs,
Vic







Thanks so much for the words of wisdom, a reminder for me to stay cool headed (which I have not this year) and not go with the herd, to wait patiently, very patiently for the extreme market fear to come to pick up some great bargains.

[blackjack21trader]

Bloomberg:

Tesla's Worst Nightmare Sparked as Car Catches Fire

[indomie]

Morgan Stanley Explains The 'Beautiful Shutdown' Scenario
SAM RO
OCT. 4, 2013, 7:02 PM 2,145 5

Business Insider / Sam Ro
The government's partial shutdown has now gone on for four days.
And while it's a shame that Congress refuses to make a deal to get the government back online, the economic damage may be putting enough pressure on the economy that the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to keep stimulating via easy monetary policy.
This could be a positive for risk assets.
Morgan Stanley's Hans Redekar wrote about it today:
‘Beautiful’ shutdown scenario. The VIX index has shot up to 17, showing its highest reading since June as investors use the options market to hedge bullish exposure. However, unless the US defaults, the combination of the government staying closed and the related economic slowdown prolonging monetary accommodation is probably the most bullish long-term outcome for risky assets, explaining why investors prefer hedging the short-term downside risk instead of reducing physical portfolio exposure into risky assets. Currency markets will see USD weakening as long as this scenario plays out, in our view.
But as Redekar notes, a debt default would change everything.
Default scenario. However, should the US default, then there will be a radical change in FX markets. A US default will increase USD demand inside and outside the US, pushing USD sharply higher. However, between now and November 1, the market will play the ‘beautiful’ shutdown scenario, slowing the US economy sufficiently to keep the Fed in the QE game for longer. Interestingly, Asian equity markets have started to outperform US markets, suggesting that funds are leaving the US looking for better risk/reward elsewhere.
Morgan Stanley's house view continues to be that the U.S. government will not default.
It'll be interesting to see how events unfold as we approach the Oct. 17 deadline for the debt ceiling.

[bargain hunter]

why nov 1 and not oct 17?


Morgan Stanley Explains The 'Beautiful Shutdown' Scenario
SAM RO
OCT. 4, 2013, 7:02 PM 2,145 5

Business Insider / Sam Ro
The government's partial shutdown has now gone on for four days.
And while it's a shame that Congress refuses to make a deal to get the government back online, the economic damage may be putting enough pressure on the economy that the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to keep stimulating via easy monetary policy.
This could be a positive for risk assets.
Morgan Stanley's Hans Redekar wrote about it today:
‘Beautiful’ shutdown scenario. The VIX index has shot up to 17, showing its highest reading since June as investors use the options market to hedge bullish exposure. However, unless the US defaults, the combination of the government staying closed and the related economic slowdown prolonging monetary accommodation is probably the most bullish long-term outcome for risky assets, explaining why investors prefer hedging the short-term downside risk instead of reducing physical portfolio exposure into risky assets. Currency markets will see USD weakening as long as this scenario plays out, in our view.
But as Redekar notes, a debt default would change everything.
Default scenario. However, should the US default, then there will be a radical change in FX markets. A US default will increase USD demand inside and outside the US, pushing USD sharply higher. However, between now and November 1, the market will play the ‘beautiful’ shutdown scenario, slowing the US economy sufficiently to keep the Fed in the QE game for longer. Interestingly, Asian equity markets have started to outperform US markets, suggesting that funds are leaving the US looking for better risk/reward elsewhere.
Morgan Stanley's house view continues to be that the U.S. government will not default.
It'll be interesting to see how events unfold as we approach the Oct. 17 deadline for the debt ceiling.

[teddybear]

Debt ceiling raising ultimate deadline is 1 Nov (and not Oct 17, because they can still drag until 1 Nov before default will occur)... :o


why nov 1 and not oct 17?


Morgan Stanley Explains The 'Beautiful Shutdown' Scenario
SAM RO
OCT. 4, 2013, 7:02 PM 2,145 5

Business Insider / Sam Ro
The government's partial shutdown has now gone on for four days.
And while it's a shame that Congress refuses to make a deal to get the government back online, the economic damage may be putting enough pressure on the economy that the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to keep stimulating via easy monetary policy.
This could be a positive for risk assets.
Morgan Stanley's Hans Redekar wrote about it today:
‘Beautiful’ shutdown scenario. The VIX index has shot up to 17, showing its highest reading since June as investors use the options market to hedge bullish exposure. However, unless the US defaults, the combination of the government staying closed and the related economic slowdown prolonging monetary accommodation is probably the most bullish long-term outcome for risky assets, explaining why investors prefer hedging the short-term downside risk instead of reducing physical portfolio exposure into risky assets. Currency markets will see USD weakening as long as this scenario plays out, in our view.
But as Redekar notes, a debt default would change everything.
Default scenario. However, should the US default, then there will be a radical change in FX markets. A US default will increase USD demand inside and outside the US, pushing USD sharply higher. However, between now and November 1, the market will play the ‘beautiful’ shutdown scenario, slowing the US economy sufficiently to keep the Fed in the QE game for longer. Interestingly, Asian equity markets have started to outperform US markets, suggesting that funds are leaving the US looking for better risk/reward elsewhere.
Morgan Stanley's house view continues to be that the U.S. government will not default.
It'll be interesting to see how events unfold as we approach the Oct. 17 deadline for the debt ceiling.

[amk]

17 Oct, treasury loses the *legal authority to borrow*
It still has some cash then, about 30 to 50 bil.
It is estimated ( by themselves I think ), this little cash will then last them through anywhere from 23 oct to 30 oct.
actually I think can be even longer because there are some revenues then also.
So the wayang can drag well into the earnings season. That will be fun.