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Kokono
12-09-13, 16:24
This is my first posting on this forum. Please don't flame me but do correct me if I had stated anything wrongly or omitted anything important.

Below is my own personal analysis of the state of demand & supply of HDB and Private Non-Landed Residential property ( as of Sep'13)

HDB BTO (except EC)

Factors causing an increase in demand for HDB BTOs:
- Gov delinked HDB from resale price. BTO price is more affordable now than before.
- Gov providing more grant for new BTO purchases, hence BTOs are now more affordable
- Buyers can get loan easier for BTO compared to buying HDB resale, because of less stringent loan criteria
- BTO buyers need less immediate cash outfront for BTO compared to HDB Resale
- Ministry Khaw has announced that the targeted BTO prices at 4 years annual household income to be reasonable price, hence buyers may be holding back resale purchases now as they expect BTO prices may drop further.

Factors causing a decrease in demand HDB BTOs:
- New TDSR & MSR & reduced loan tenure ruling has reduced the buying power of buyers, hence they have to be more realistic in the size/location of their home purchase
- Pending interest hike from global economy will reduce demand for property purchases, but this will have reduced impact for BTO buyers because buyer could purchase using HDB loan at CPF interest rates + 0.1% rate, and HDB loan is deemed to be more mortagee friendly during economic hard times

Factors causing an increase in supply for HDB BTOs:
- HDB has greatly increase new BTO supplies. Hence, buyers now have more choices to buy new HDB flats at a lower price compared to HDB resale flats, if they do not mind the ave 4 years wait for construction
"- There are a lot more potential sites for BTO developments
( Punggol, Biddari, Tampines North, Paya Lebar..etc )"

Factors causing an decrease in supply for HDB BTOs:
No particular factors now that will lead to a reduction of supplies now


HDB Resale

Factors causing an increase in demand for HDB Resale:
- COV prices has been decreasing to a four year low
- HDB Resale may still the only property within the budget for PRs, provided they have waited 3 years after becoming PR status
- HDB Resale is still deemed to be a good investment because of the potential higher rate of returns (compared to private) from rental income, after 5 years MOP

Factors causing an decrease in demand for HDB Resale:
- New TDSR & MSR & reduced loan tenure ruling has reduced the buying power of buyers, hence they have to be more realistic in the size/location of their home purchase
- New PR need to pay 5% ABSD on their 1st property purchase
- New PR now need to wait 3 yrs before they are eligible to buy HDB resale.
- New SSD wef 13/01/2011 will remove speculative buyers from the market.
- Pending interest hike from global economy will reduce demand for property purchases
- compared to buying BTO flat, buyers of resale HDB flat need a larger sum of cash on hand due to COV and other regulations.

Factors causing an increase/decrease in supply for HDB Resale:
- No particular factors now that will lead to an increase or decrease of supplies now

EC (New)

Factors causing an increase in demand for EC:
- The record price of current Private properties prices has pushed buyers to look at EC more favourably because while there is a price discount of EC vs Private during launch, historical facts has shown that the price discount will be reduced considerably after the 5 yrs and 10 yrs occupation period, hence EC owners could potentially reap a higher profit
- HDB upgraders who had bought a flat from the HDB or taken a CPF Housing Grant, do not need to pay resale levy when they purchase EC, but they will need to if they are buying BTO
- A twist in the new TDSR rulings may have priced out the more expensive private properties for HDB upgraders, and these buyers will find EC to be more affordable

Factors causing an decrease in demand for EC:
- New TDSR & reduced loan tenure ruling has reduced the buying power of buyers, hence they have to be more realistic in the size/location of their home purchase
- New PR need to pay 5% ABSD on their 1st property purchase
- New SSD wef 13/01/2011 will remove speculative buyers from the market.
- Pending interest hike from global economy will reduce demand for property purchases
- the ever increasing EC launch prices may be starting to reduce the demand for EC, somewhat to a small extend.

Factors causing an increase in supply for EC:
- looks like the government has the intention to continue to this EC scheme to meet the demand of the sandwiched class

Factors causing an decrease in supply for EC:
- a 15 month wait from the date of sale of land before developers can launch the project will temporarily cause a hiatus in new EC launches in Q4 of 2013 till Q3 of 2014.

Private Non-Landed

Factors causing an increase in demand for Private non-landed:
- Some new PRs who higher purchasing power, might choose to purchase private properties now than to rent for 3 years. But the impact is not expected to be great
- Hot money from overseas buyers who deem Singapore to be a safe investment haven for properties

Factors causing an decrease in demand for Private non-landed:
- New TDSR & reduced loan tenure ruling has reduced the buying power of buyers, hence they have to be more realistic in the size/location of their home purchase
- New PR need to pay 5% ABSD on their 1st property purchase
- The increase SGD might made Singapore Property last affordable to overseas buyer
- New SSD wef 13/01/2011 will remove speculative buyers from the market.
- Pending interest hike from global economy will reduce demand for property purchases

Factors causing an increase or decrease in supply for Private non-landed:
No particular factors now that will affect the supplies of Private non-landed now

My own unprofessional conclusion on the current state of demand of HDB and Private Non-Landed property

1. HDB BTO will continue to be in higher demand, although, from the decreasing buyers to flats ratio for each subsequent launches, we can see the recent spat of massive new BTO launches may have already soaked up the previously huge penned up demand for HDB flats. I expect the demand for new BTO to continue to remain high, but probably not as high as last year.

2. HDB Resales will see continue to soften, as seen from the decreasing COVs and lower sales numbers. All the various CMs, policies changes and global economic uncertainty has contributed to this conclusion.

3. EC will continue to be in hot demand as see in the strong sales number, quick take up rates during launch, increasing EC prices, increasing land sales prices for EC projects and the huge turnout at EC showrooms. The last EC launch for 2013 will be interesting to watch as EC launches will take a break til Q3 2014. But developers for the Yuan Ching Road EC might have overplayed his cards. Maybe it was due to the huge success as shown by the Jurong Gateway sales at record prices of $1600 psf, I still cannot find good reasons why Jurong can be more expensive than some sites in CCR and OCR.

4. Private non-landed properties will continue at a slower sales pace. The price may remain flat or be revised slightly downwards. Given the all time astronomical prices for private non-landed, after after all the CMs and TDSR stuffs and throw in some uncertainty in global economics, I do not see anymore potential upside now.

Thank you

Kokono the wannabe SG property self taught analyst.

Arcachon
12-09-13, 17:14
End of the Day depends on Money Supply.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/singapore/money-supply-m3

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqvKjsIxT_8

https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn2/1072558_10200650786204998_1893842256_o.jpg

DC33_2008
12-09-13, 17:49
How about rental market till the end of the year?
This is my first posting on this forum. Please don't flame me but do correct me if I had stated anything wrongly or omitted anything important.

Below is my own personal analysis of the state of demand & supply of HDB and Private Non-Landed Residential property ( as of Sep'13)

HDB BTO (except EC)

Factors causing an increase in demand for HDB BTOs:
- Gov delinked HDB from resale price. BTO price is more affordable now than before.
- Gov providing more grant for new BTO purchases, hence BTOs are now more affordable
- Buyers can get loan easier for BTO compared to buying HDB resale, because of less stringent loan criteria
- BTO buyers need less immediate cash outfront for BTO compared to HDB Resale
- Ministry Khaw has announced that the targeted BTO prices at 4 years annual household income to be reasonable price, hence buyers may be holding back resale purchases now as they expect BTO prices may drop further.

Factors causing a decrease in demand HDB BTOs:
- New TDSR & MSR & reduced loan tenure ruling has reduced the buying power of buyers, hence they have to be more realistic in the size/location of their home purchase
- Pending interest hike from global economy will reduce demand for property purchases, but this will have reduced impact for BTO buyers because buyer could purchase using HDB loan at CPF interest rates + 0.1% rate, and HDB loan is deemed to be more mortagee friendly during economic hard times

Factors causing an increase in supply for HDB BTOs:
- HDB has greatly increase new BTO supplies. Hence, buyers now have more choices to buy new HDB flats at a lower price compared to HDB resale flats, if they do not mind the ave 4 years wait for construction
"- There are a lot more potential sites for BTO developments
( Punggol, Biddari, Tampines North, Paya Lebar..etc )"

Factors causing an decrease in supply for HDB BTOs:
No particular factors now that will lead to a reduction of supplies now


HDB Resale

Factors causing an increase in demand for HDB Resale:
- COV prices has been decreasing to a four year low
- HDB Resale may still the only property within the budget for PRs, provided they have waited 3 years after becoming PR status
- HDB Resale is still deemed to be a good investment because of the potential higher rate of returns (compared to private) from rental income, after 5 years MOP

Factors causing an decrease in demand for HDB Resale:
- New TDSR & MSR & reduced loan tenure ruling has reduced the buying power of buyers, hence they have to be more realistic in the size/location of their home purchase
- New PR need to pay 5% ABSD on their 1st property purchase
- New PR now need to wait 3 yrs before they are eligible to buy HDB resale.
- New SSD wef 13/01/2011 will remove speculative buyers from the market.
- Pending interest hike from global economy will reduce demand for property purchases
- compared to buying BTO flat, buyers of resale HDB flat need a larger sum of cash on hand due to COV and other regulations.

Factors causing an increase/decrease in supply for HDB Resale:
- No particular factors now that will lead to an increase or decrease of supplies now

EC (New)

Factors causing an increase in demand for EC:
- The record price of current Private properties prices has pushed buyers to look at EC more favourably because while there is a price discount of EC vs Private during launch, historical facts has shown that the price discount will be reduced considerably after the 5 yrs and 10 yrs occupation period, hence EC owners could potentially reap a higher profit
- HDB upgraders who had bought a flat from the HDB or taken a CPF Housing Grant, do not need to pay resale levy when they purchase EC, but they will need to if they are buying BTO
- A twist in the new TDSR rulings may have priced out the more expensive private properties for HDB upgraders, and these buyers will find EC to be more affordable

Factors causing an decrease in demand for EC:
- New TDSR & reduced loan tenure ruling has reduced the buying power of buyers, hence they have to be more realistic in the size/location of their home purchase
- New PR need to pay 5% ABSD on their 1st property purchase
- New SSD wef 13/01/2011 will remove speculative buyers from the market.
- Pending interest hike from global economy will reduce demand for property purchases
- the ever increasing EC launch prices may be starting to reduce the demand for EC, somewhat to a small extend.

Factors causing an increase in supply for EC:
- looks like the government has the intention to continue to this EC scheme to meet the demand of the sandwiched class

Factors causing an decrease in supply for EC:
- a 15 month wait from the date of sale of land before developers can launch the project will temporarily cause a hiatus in new EC launches in Q4 of 2013 till Q3 of 2014.

Private Non-Landed

Factors causing an increase in demand for Private non-landed:
- Some new PRs who higher purchasing power, might choose to purchase private properties now than to rent for 3 years. But the impact is not expected to be great
- Hot money from overseas buyers who deem Singapore to be a safe investment haven for properties

Factors causing an decrease in demand for Private non-landed:
- New TDSR & reduced loan tenure ruling has reduced the buying power of buyers, hence they have to be more realistic in the size/location of their home purchase
- New PR need to pay 5% ABSD on their 1st property purchase
- The increase SGD might made Singapore Property last affordable to overseas buyer
- New SSD wef 13/01/2011 will remove speculative buyers from the market.
- Pending interest hike from global economy will reduce demand for property purchases

Factors causing an increase or decrease in supply for Private non-landed:
No particular factors now that will affect the supplies of Private non-landed now

My own unprofessional conclusion on the current state of demand of HDB and Private Non-Landed property

1. HDB BTO will continue to be in higher demand, although, from the decreasing buyers to flats ratio for each subsequent launches, we can see the recent spat of massive new BTO launches may have already soaked up the previously huge penned up demand for HDB flats. I expect the demand for new BTO to continue to remain high, but probably not as high as last year.

2. HDB Resales will see continue to soften, as seen from the decreasing COVs and lower sales numbers. All the various CMs, policies changes and global economic uncertainty has contributed to this conclusion.

3. EC will continue to be in hot demand as see in the strong sales number, quick take up rates during launch, increasing EC prices, increasing land sales prices for EC projects and the huge turnout at EC showrooms. The last EC launch for 2013 will be interesting to watch as EC launches will take a break til Q3 2014. But developers for the Yuan Ching Road EC might have overplayed his cards. Maybe it was due to the huge success as shown by the Jurong Gateway sales at record prices of $1600 psf, I still cannot find good reasons why Jurong can be more expensive than some sites in CCR and OCR.

4. Private non-landed properties will continue at a slower sales pace. The price may remain flat or be revised slightly downwards. Given the all time astronomical prices for private non-landed, after after all the CMs and TDSR stuffs and throw in some uncertainty in global economics, I do not see anymore potential upside now.

Thank you

Kokono the wannabe SG property self taught analyst.

Kokono
12-09-13, 18:08
I think the following market conditions will affect the rental market of both HDB and Private Non-residential properties:

Positive demand side factors that will increase the general market rental prices:
- New PR have to wait for 3 before they can buy HDB

Negative demand side factors that will decrease the general market rental prices:
- Government is clamping down on the issuance of Work pass / S Pass, fewer additional FT are allowed to work per year

Positive supply side factors that will increase the general market rental prices:
- No factors I can think of.

Negative supply side factors that will decrease the general market rental prices:
- a huge tsunami of currently under construction BTO and private non-landed residential properties are going to be completed from 2014 onwards.


Hence, I think the general market rental prices will be flat for this year and may decrease slightly from 2014 onwards.

RCT
12-09-13, 18:19
Correct me if I am wrong.. Those who just go PR should be renting a house now right? Even before getting the PR.. :) or else where they stay... So I am not sure whether the new policy will improve rental market... I think the key factor is rental market is the rate of influx of FT.. The new rules helps to relieve the problem of slow down in influx of FT by blocking PR from buying HDB and moving out of the rental market. Now with some much condos going to TOP, it will increase the supply of rental market of condo as well as hdb... Now if whether we have enough people coming to take up those units..

Arcachon
12-09-13, 18:38
http://countrymeters.info/en/Singapore/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-14/ponzi-schemes-built-on-people-always-crash-too.html

tiny island’s population may rise by as much as 30 percent to 6.9 million by 2030.

http://www.nptd.gov.sg/content/NPTD/news/_jcr_content/par_content/download_98/file.res/population-white-paper.pdf

Arcachon
12-09-13, 18:52
National Population And Talent Division

http://www.nptd.gov.sg/content/NPTD/home.html

https://www.google.fr/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=sp_pop_totl&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:SGP:MYS&ifdim=region&hl=en&dl=en&ind=false

Proplive123
12-09-13, 21:46
You forgot to include those HDB seller above $0.5million. From guru property alone are already >4k unit available in market. What they going to do which their proceed? Believe most will use to upgrade to Pte prop. Is just matter of time.

chestnut
13-09-13, 07:49
How about rental market till the end of the year?

http://www.orangetee.com/Research/In%20The%20News/Do%20new%20HDB%20rules%20against%20PRs%20subletting%20flats%20reveal%20alarming%20trends_%20_%20Singapore%20Business%20Review.pdf

There will be less hdb rental available.

Kokono
13-09-13, 10:19
Correct me if I am wrong.. Those who just go PR should be renting a house now right? Even before getting the PR.. :) or else where they stay... So I am not sure whether the new policy will improve rental market... I think the key factor is rental market is the rate of influx of FT.. The new rules helps to relieve the problem of slow down in influx of FT by blocking PR from buying HDB and moving out of the rental market. Now with some much condos going to TOP, it will increase the supply of rental market of condo as well as hdb... Now if whether we have enough people coming to take up those units..

Yes, I agree that the that new ruling on new PRs having to wait 3 years before they can buy HDB will compel them to either continue to rent for 3 years or to purchase private properties straight away.

But I feel the impact for the above new ruling is not a big enough factor to cause the general market rental to increase or the general private property prices to increase.

I believe the general market rental market to remain flat or maybe decrease slightly because of the follower reasons with larger impact:
- the tsunami of new private development on completion from Q4 2013 onwards through to 2017, hence resulting a large new supply of vacant units chasing tenants
- the government policy of curbing the issuance and raising the levy on new Work Permit, Work Pass and S Pass will result in less FT seeking rental housing
- with less Work Pass and S Pass being issued, there will be less new application for PR status, hence, in a way, deflect the positive impact the new ruling will have on making PR waiting 3 years before they can buy HDB.

I also believe the new ruling on new PRs having to wait 3 years before they can buy HDB will not change the general private non-land market to remain flat or maybe decrease slightly because of the follower reasons:
- the new ruling will compel insignificant number of PR to buy private non-land because only a small group can meet the new TDSR requirements, willing to bear the ABSD, wait out the 4 more years to avoid SSD, and still see viable capital upward potential given the private property prices are on a historical all time high.
- the tsunami of new private properties coming in will draw away some of the new PR to continue renting because they expect the rent to decrease, or they can expect to "upgrade" to a better condo or location in the near future by paying the same rent amount now.

Kokono
13-09-13, 10:41
Some readers have provided some very good points that I did not mention and some other readers have pointed some mistakes I have made.

I have provided an update to my original article below.

Below is my own personal analysis of the state of demand & supply of HDB and Private Non-Landed Residential property ( as of Sep'13)

HDB BTO (except EC)

Factors causing an increase in demand for HDB BTOs:
- Gov has delinked BTO pricesfrom resale price. BTO price is more affordable now than before.
- Gov providing more grant for new BTO purchases, hence BTOs are now more affordable
- Buyers can get loan easier for BTO compared to buying HDB resale, because of less stringent loan criteria
- BTO buyers need less immediate cash upfront for BTO compared to HDB Resale
- Minister Khaw has announced that the targeted BTO prices should be an comfortable level of 4 years annual household income. Hence buyers may be holding back resale purchases now as they expect BTO prices may drop further.

Factors causing a decrease in demand HDB BTOs:
- New TDSR & MSR & reduced loan tenure ruling has reduced the buying power of buyers, hence they have to be more realistic in the size/location of their home purchase
- PR now need to pay 5% ABSD on the purchase or acquisition of their first residential property
- Pending interest hike from global economy will reduce demand for property purchases, but this will have reduced impact for BTO buyers because buyer could purchase using HDB loan at CPF interest rates + 0.1% rate, and HDB loan is deemed to be more mortagee friendly during economic hard times

Factors causing an increase in supply for HDB BTOs:
- HDB has greatly increase new BTO supplies. Hence, buyers now have more choices to buy new HDB flats at a lower price compared to HDB resale flats, if they do not mind the ave 4 years wait for construction
- There are a lot more potential sites for BTO developments eg, Punggol, Biddari, Tampines North, Paya Lebar..etc

Factors causing an decrease in supply for HDB BTOs:
No particular factors now that will lead to a reduction of supplies now


HDB Resale

Factors causing an increase in demand for HDB Resale:
- COV prices has been decreasing to a four year low
- HDB Resale may still the only property within the budget for PRs, provided they have waited 3 years after becoming PR status
- HDB Resale is still deemed to be a good investment because of the potential higher rate of returns (compared to private) from rental income, after 5 years MOP

Factors causing an decrease in demand for HDB Resale:
- New TDSR & MSR & reduced loan tenure ruling has reduced the buying power of buyers, hence they have to be more realistic in the size/location of their home purchase
- PR now need to pay 5% ABSD on the purchase or acquisition of their first residential property
- New PR now need to wait 3 yrs before they are eligible to buy HDB resale.
- Singles above 35 years can now also buy BTO 2 rooms or larger.
- Fears of an interest hike resulting from the US QE tapering and other global economic reasons will reduce demand for property purchases
- compared to buying BTO flat, buyers of resale HDB flat need a larger sum of cash on hand due to COV and other regulations.

Factors causing an increase/decrease in supply for HDB Resale:
- No particular factors now that will lead to an increase or decrease of supplies now

EC (New)

Factors causing an increase in demand for EC:
- The record price of current Private properties prices has pushed buyers to look at EC more favourably because while there is a price discount of EC vs Private during launch, historical facts has shown that the price discount will be reduced considerably after the 5 yrs and 10 yrs occupation period, hence EC owners could potentially reap a higher profit
- Fears that HDB will soon remove the current HDB rules that HDB upgraders who had bought a flat from the HDB or taken a CPF Housing Grant, do not need to pay resale levy when they purchase EC, but they will need to if they are buying BTO
- A twist in the new TDSR rulings may have priced out the more expensive private properties for HDB upgraders, and these buyers will find EC to be more affordable

Factors causing an decrease in demand for EC:
- New TDSR & reduced loan tenure ruling has reduced the buying power of buyers, hence they have to be more realistic in the size/location of their home purchase
- PR now need to pay 5% ABSD on the purchase or acquisition of their first residential property
- Fears of an interest hike resulting from the US QE tapering and other global economic reasons will reduce demand for property purchases
- the ever increasing EC launch prices may be starting to reduce the demand for EC, somewhat to a small extend.

Factors causing an increase in supply for EC:
- looks like the government has the intention to continue to this EC scheme to meet the demand of the sandwiched class

Factors causing an decrease in supply for EC:
- a 15 month wait from the date of sale of land before developers can launch the project will temporarily cause a hiatus on new EC launches from Q4 of 2013 till Q3 of 2014.

Private Non-Landed

Factors causing an increase in demand for Private non-landed:
- Some new PRs who higher purchasing power, might choose to purchase private properties now than to rent for 3 years. But the impact is not expected to be great
- Hot money from overseas buyers who deem Singapore to be a safe investment haven for properties

Factors causing an decrease in demand for Private non-landed:
- New TDSR & reduced loan tenure ruling has reduced the buying power of buyers, hence they have to be more realistic in the size/location of their home purchase
- PR now need to pay 5% ABSD on the purchase or acquisition of their first residential property
- Foreigner now need to pay 15% ABSD on the purchase or acquisition of their first residential property
- The strong SGD might made Singapore Property last affordable to overseas buyer
- New SSD wef 13/01/2011 will remove speculative buyers from the market.
- Fears of an interest hike resulting from the US QE tapering and other global economic reasons will reduce demand for property purchases

Factors causing an increase or decrease in supply for Private non-landed:
No particular factors now that will affect the supplies of Private non-landed now. But we should expect more supplies coming soon from the announcement of the new developments plans Tanjong Pagar belt, Jurong, Woodlands and Paya Lebar.

My own unprofessional conclusion on the current state of demand of HDB and Private Non-Landed property

1. HDB BTO will continue to be in higher demand, although, from the decreasing buyers to flats ratio for each subsequent launches, we can see the recent spat of massive new BTO launches may have already soaked up the previously huge penned up demand for HDB flats. I expect the demand for new BTO to continue to remain high, but probably not as high as last year.

2. HDB Resales will see continue to soften, as seen from the decreasing COVs and lower sales numbers. All the various CMs, policies changes and global economic uncertainty has contributed to this conclusion.

3. EC will continue to be in hot demand as see in the strong sales number, quick take up rates during launch, increasing EC prices, increasing land sales prices for EC projects and the huge turnout at EC showrooms. The last EC launch for 2013 will be interesting to watch as EC launches will take a break til Q3 2014. But developers for the Yuan Ching Road EC might have overplayed his cards. Maybe it was due to the huge success as shown by the Jurong Gateway sales at record prices of $1600 psf, I still cannot find good reasons why Jurong can be more expensive than some sites in CCR and OCR.

4. Private non-landed properties will continue at a slower sales pace. The price may remain flat or be revised slightly downwards. Given the all time astronomical prices for private non-landed, after after all the CMs and TDSR stuffs and throw in some uncertainty in global economics, I do not see anymore potential upside now.

Kokono
13-09-13, 11:06
You forgot to include those HDB seller above $0.5million. From guru property alone are already >4k unit available in market. What they going to do which their proceed? Believe most will use to upgrade to Pte prop. Is just matter of time.

I believe, for those more than 4000 HDB sellers who can expect to sell their HDB flats for more than $400K, there will also a group who are looking to upgrade to private properties.

But I think they will find the cost for upgrading to be higher now than 1 year ago because HDB resales prices is currently flat but I do expect to drop slight soon ( as observed by the falling COVs and more flats with zero or negative COV sales ). And yet at the same time, private property prices is still flat at an all time high. Throw in the new TDSR rulings, shorter loan tenure, mandatory use of higher interest rates for loan computation, expectation of real interest rates to increase, all these reasons will make these sellers find it harder to upgrade now than 1 year ago.

In my opinion, the financially rational thing for this group of HDB resale flat seller, if they are still as determine to sell their flat, is to continue to sell the flat now before the prices drop further. In another words, they have already timed the sale of their HDB flat 1 year too late but because the prices now is still relatively quite high, they should sell it asap before the prices continue to drop further.

Then they should downgrade to a smaller HDB and use the excess cash on hand to invest in other relatively safe but liquid investments that yield better returns. Then wait for the market to turn before entering the property market again. Hopefully by then, the outcome then is that they can buy a new private property and continue to own the downgraded HDB flat.

But if they just want a better quality of life now, they should just upgrade, if they are already financially stable.

My two cents.