India - the next Asian crisis

[phantom_opera]

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/08/20130819_india2_0.jpg

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/08/20130819_india1_0.jpg

:scared-1: :scared-1:

[JAFCO]

So whaso what they are all here....

[phantom_opera]

changi airport will be choked by expat Indians soon, rupee was 20 per USD in 1991, now is 63 :scared-5:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/08/20130819_INR1_0.jpg

[star]

Wealth is determine by which currency u keep. If keep rupee since 1991.... U lost alot of wealth. If keep malaysia ringgit since early time also lost alot of wealth.

[phantom_opera]

there is a famous story: in the jungle chased by a bear, as long as u are not the slowest u will survive

India, Brazil, Indonesia obviously are the slowest animals out of the BRIICS ... the "glamorous" 10y of 2000-2010 will follow by "painful loss" as they have become not competitive

================================

The Brazilian real closed 0.9 percent lower at 2.4152 per dollar, adding to last week's losses of more than 5 percent, even after strong central bank intervention.
Analysts said the real could keep weakening toward 2.5 per dollar in the short term, while others said it could slide to 2.70 through the end of the year.

[k00L]

Massive unwind of EM underway
I see a bit of contagious effect on SGD - usdsgd may hit 1.28 this week then 1.3 next month
Stay long Usd short asian currency

[phantom_opera]

the nagging concern of repeat of 1997:

USD/INR (USDINR=X) -CCY
63.90 Up 0.7650(+1.2100%)

The rupee has breached 64 against the US dollar Tuesday :scared-1:

[Antz621]

Massive unwind of EM underway
I see a bit of contagious effect on SGD - usdsgd may hit 1.28 this week then 1.3 next month
Stay long Usd short asian currency

Hi

What's EM?

And will the Indian economy affects us much? Sorry a noob here... What I understand is India doesn't really drives the world's economy like China and US do. So will their failure really brings all of us down?

[Sandiwara]

there is a famous story: in the jungle chased by a bear, as long as u are not the slowest u will survive

India, Brazil, Indonesia obviously are the slowest animals out of the BRIICS ... the "glamorous" 10y of 2000-2010 will follow by "painful loss" as they have become not competitive

================================

The Brazilian real closed 0.9 percent lower at 2.4152 per dollar, adding to last week's losses of more than 5 percent, even after strong central bank intervention.
Analysts said the real could keep weakening toward 2.5 per dollar in the short term, while others said it could slide to 2.70 through the end of the year.

Please remember with domino effect. If big country like India and Indonesia having problem, the domino effect may be giving Singapore problem also.

[phantom_opera]

wow ... RBI also doing QE like Japan / US liao

RBI adds liquidity to aid India banks
Central bank purchases $1.2bn of long-dated government bonds

meanwhile ... Kuroda talking again:

Kuroda open to further monetary easing

====

EM miserables;

Mexico economy shrinks most in four years Turkey raises rates to stop lira’s slide

[phantom_opera]

unfortunately ... India QE amount was a joke ... US Fed 85b per month .... this QE is like 1.3b USD only

from this chart, it seems like intervention becomes less n less effective over time ... flashing danger signs

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/08/India%20Chart.jpg

[phantom_opera]

Indian rupee may crash to 70 per dollar in a month: Deutsche

=> when a bank starts to say like this ... do your short covering now :rolleyes:

FT:

The Indian rupee fell below Rs65 to the US dollar on Thursday, extending a run of record lows as new government policy measures failed to improve investor sentiment in Asia’s third-largest economy.

[phantom_opera]

MUMBAI: Rupee plunged 3.07 percent to close at an all time low of 66.24 versus the US dollar on Tuesday. This is the worst one day percentage decline ever for the currency.

=> approving the food bill for the poor is committing financial suicide ... with Syrian war looming, indeed the short cover can till 70 :doh:

[phantom_opera]

The Indian rupee has dropped by nearly 4% to a new record low of 68.7 to the US dollar amid growing concerns over the health of the country's economy.

:scared-1:

short covering starting at 70

[phantom_opera]

69.x for rupee just hit minutes ago

The hard truth ... BRIC .. only Russia / China can survive

The world middle class:

American 200m
European 300m
Indians 300m
Chinese 300m

Can't be all prosper together, the weakest will die pain pain, repeat of Asian 1997 crisis

[star]

I love your charts and analysis mind. :)

[phantom_opera]

India Rupee, Onion and Gas

The price of the humble onion – an indispensable kitchen staple in India and a filler vegetable in middle-class cooking – is making Indians weep. In the last few weeks, onion prices have quadrupled from 20 rupees ($0.30) a kilogram, edged up further before subsiding a bit. Some Indians are even talking of a race to the 100-rupee mark between the U.S. dollar (over 65 rupees, currently), the onion (over 70 rupees) and a liter of gas (over 77 rupees in Bangalore).