View Full Version : SSD scheme may work against govt's intention
Published August 12, 2013
[SINGAPORE] With previously locked-up homes getting ready to hit the market, it is timely to relook the sellers stamp duty (SSD), to prevent a head-on collision with the record number of private homes that are expected to make it to the market in 2016, say market observers.
According to data provided by Orange Tee, a total of 33,555 units are expected to make it to the market in 2016, compared with the 15,503 units that are available this year.
Of this, 27,181 units will originate from newly launched projects while the remaining 6,374 units will be from the stash of previously locked-up units, assuming that owners choose to hold onto their properties and not incur any SSD.
This follows enhancements to the SSD scheme in 2011, which saw the holding period raised from three to four years, and rates increased steeply up to 16 per cent.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/premium/top-stories/property-market-set-2016-supply-avalanche-20130812
whoever published the report wanna convince govt to relax ssd?
whoever published the report wanna convince govt to relax ssd?
well, is SSD sound in the 1st place?
I feel tat the principle behind SSD is fundamentally right but practically wrong.
if their intention is to preventing flipping, they should impose SSD ONLY if ppty r being sold prior to TOP. They should not use the number of years to determine as there could be small projects which top 1.5 – 2 yrs after purchasing. Why should a pte ppty owner be penalised for selling after his ppty has TOPed?
If their intention is to discourage ppl from selling, SSD does not solve the problem at all, it merely deters. But at the end of the timeframe, the same problem occurs again.
perhaps ssd rule will be relax when price go south..
An academic paper has backed the implementation of curbs on housing ownership and investments by permanent residents (PRs) and foreigners as a way to manage demand in the property market. Authors of this academic paper included SMU Professor of Economics and lead author Phang Sock Yong, as well as David Lee, Academic Director, Global Master of Finance Dual Degree at Lee Kong Chian School of Business and Professor of Quantitative Finance (Practice).
Source: The Business Times
https://www.smu.edu.sg/sites/default/files/smu/news_room/smu_in_the_news/2013/sources/aug12/bt_20130808_1.pdf
What do you think?
https://www.smu.edu.sg/sites/default/files/smu/news_room/smu_in_the_news/2013/sources/aug12/bt_20130808_1.pdf
What do you think?
hmmm ... foreigners to seek permission when buying condos. so wat will be the qualifying criterias?
An academic paper has backed the implementation of curbs on housing ownership and investments by permanent residents (PRs) and foreigners as a way to manage demand in the property market
the segments that need to be "managed" the most, are HDB resale and OCR prices.
And in these 2, Singaporeans are the main players, by far. Not foreigners.
The above paper, IMO, is nothing more than a populist proposal to make ppl feel good ("yea screw the PRs and FTs !"), with no significant effectiveness on the real problem.
well, is SSD sound in the 1st place?
I feel tat the principle behind SSD is fundamentally right but practically wrong.
if their intention is to preventing flipping, they should impose SSD ONLY if ppty r being sold prior to TOP. They should not use the number of years to determine as there could be small projects which top 1.5 – 2 yrs after purchasing. Why should a pte ppty owner be penalised for selling after his ppty has TOPed?
If their intention is to discourage ppl from selling, SSD does not solve the problem at all, it merely deters. But at the end of the timeframe, the same problem occurs again.
I don't understand your logic. SSD was to discourage speculation/Flipping which is selling of the property quickly within a certain time frame. What does that has to do with TOP??
If I buy a TOPed unit intending to sell it off in a year, it is also speculating what...
This article is just trying to be funny. Among all the CMs, I think SSD is perhaps the most important and I see no chance of this be remove.
The record number of private homes hitting the market is not due to SSD, it is due to record number sold by developers in 2011, and once we past 2016 (1st year) there will should not be any more concern.
the segments that need to be "managed" the most, are HDB resale and OCR prices.
And in these 2, Singaporeans are the main players, by far. Not foreigners.
The above paper, IMO, is nothing more than a populist proposal to make ppl feel good ("yea screw the PRs and FTs !"), with no significant effectiveness on the real problem.
if you reduced the demand of upgraders looking to sell their current apt or hdb, you may actually end up cooling OCR. tembusu sold about 200 units today. the flip side could be rentals going higher.
The effect of the SSD is to reduce the churn rate of PCs.
In the past, people can buy today and sell tomorrow at 10% profit.
The result of this is not so much as how much profit is made, but valuation goes up 10% overnight.
So to mitigate this effect, the SSD is introduced so that intra-development, there is low chance of prices going up.
On a separate note, Mr Quek's concern of oversupply should not be taken lightly, as a developer, Mr Quek has always been upbeat. His recent comment - though muted (5% what ? dive?!) - should be taken seriously.
Just like he says he will not go all out to bid for land at record prices, I think for readers of this forum, we also got to caution you all NEVER bid or buy PCs are record prices within the vicinity. There are many good buys now in the market, but if you see something that is priced way above all PCs around it, be it new or old, do walk away. Pick something that is selling at a discount to the highest price.
The peak prices we see now maybe here to stay for a long time. And this time round, the government is the one trying to cap it.
Happy buying !
DKSG
I don't understand your logic. SSD was to discourage speculation/Flipping which is selling of the property quickly within a certain time frame. What does that has to do with TOP??
If I buy a TOPed unit intending to sell it off in a year, it is also speculating what...
Im commenting on the context of BUC, not resale :o
blackjack21trader
13-08-13, 20:24
I don't understand your logic. SSD was to discourage speculation/Flipping which is selling of the property quickly within a certain time frame. What does that has to do with TOP??
If I buy a TOPed unit intending to sell it off in a year, it is also speculating what...
errr...un-Toped units also can be sold- it is called sub-sales: Or selling your unit before TOP.
blackjack21trader
13-08-13, 20:27
I agree with brother DKSG, prices is the result of bank valuation. ( You can read my article on my website )
In the past, before 2007, did we see prices runaway like it does now, especially landed? Although there were more flippers than now.
blackjack21trader
13-08-13, 20:30
Singapore property market is GOOD ONLY and ONLY IF YOU PROTECT THE HDB and OCR DWELLERS- keep this in mind....because majority of Singaporean are from this cat.
Good Luck.
blackjack21trader
13-08-13, 20:34
Singapore property market is GOOD ONLY and ONLY IF YOU PROTECT THE HDB and OCR DWELLERS- keep this in mind....because majority of Singaporean are from this cat.
Good Luck.
This has POLITICAL implication, so be very careful about it. And so far, I agree with what MAS and MND is doing.
blackjack21trader
13-08-13, 20:37
The other day, one dumb nut ( trained in OCS so he claimed ), asked me to define the middle class in Singapore.
I can tell you, majority of Singaporean are middle class. That is the whole bulk of HDB dwellers you are seeing. It is like 70-90% of the population.
The reason is simple, because our educational level had elevated and our society had progressed to a higher level. Many parents are able to send their kids for University education.
That is why when DR.KOH said "everyone has a car.", he is correct figuratively speaking in reference to the middle class here.
Most can afford a car here, but many chose to take the MRT- so keep this in your mind ENGRAVED.
blackjack21trader
13-08-13, 20:40
The other day, one dumb nut ( trained in OCS so he claimed ), asked me to define the middle class in Singapore.
I can tell you, majority of Singaporean are middle class. That is the whole bulk of HDB dwellers you are seeing. It is like 70-90% of the population.
The reason is simple, because our educational level had elevated and our society had progressed to a higher level. Many parents are able to send their kids for University education.
That is why when DR.KOH said "everyone has a car.", he is correct figuratively speaking in reference to the middle class here.
Most can afford a car here, but many chose to take the MRT- so keep this in your mind ENGRAVED.
And that is also why I said the middle class bridge to the next level MUST NOT BE BROKEN. Otherwise my ELITE backside will also kena.
blackjack21trader
13-08-13, 20:45
And that is also why I said the middle class bridge to the next level MUST NOT BE BROKEN. Otherwise my ELITE backside will also kena.
And the recent curb on PR buying landed here is good. It is protecting the upper middle class and helping them to cross over to the next level. Otherwise, if landed keeps going up and up like Superman, good luck to you all.
blackjack21trader
13-08-13, 20:46
And the recent curb on PR buying landed here is good. It is protecting the upper middle class and helping them to cross over to the next level. Otherwise, if landed keeps going up and up like Superman, good luck to you all.
WOAHAHHHEHEHH-- FUNNY!
blackjack21trader
13-08-13, 20:47
WOAHAHHHEHEHH-- FUNNY!
WOAHHEHEHEHH- own self say, own self laughs! = KAKI GONG, KAKI CHIO !
blackjack21trader
13-08-13, 20:48
WOAHHEHEHEHH- own self say, own self laughs! = KAKI GONG, KAKI CHIO !
WO SHI SIAO SI BO ?????
rymccondo77
13-08-13, 20:54
WO SHI SIAO SI BO ?????
Sometimes the crazy person is not so crazy after all :)
P.S. Its the bitter or selfish person that I more concerned about :doh:
blackjack21trader
13-08-13, 20:55
I always very unhappy when people say bad things about PAP.
Don't worry, I am not MIW.
But to speak a word of fairness, NO GOVERNMENT ON THIS PLANET will look out for your interest like THEY DO.
SO KEEP THIS IN MIND.
Don't go around saying people JIA-LIAO-BEE, that is hooligan language.
blackjack21trader
13-08-13, 20:57
Sometimes the crazy person is not so crazy after all :)
P.S. Its the bitter or selfish person that I more concerned about :doh:
That is correct. See my post upstairs, good brother :)
if those new project don't sell higher than the surrounding, then who would buy those old resale? will those old units look attractive?? don't buy record high then how u sell at record high? which developer now is selling below a median price of the surrounding? like that say then new project don't need to sell liao because most of the launching price are above the average in the surrounding ones.
the real question is, how much premiums should one pay...:2cents:
I'm not questioning on your strategy of buying resale one which some may be under valued, don't get me wrong...:2cents:
The effect of the SSD is to reduce the churn rate of PCs.
In the past, people can buy today and sell tomorrow at 10% profit.
The result of this is not so much as how much profit is made, but valuation goes up 10% overnight.
So to mitigate this effect, the SSD is introduced so that intra-development, there is low chance of prices going up.
On a separate note, Mr Quek's concern of oversupply should not be taken lightly, as a developer, Mr Quek has always been upbeat. His recent comment - though muted (5% what ? dive?!) - should be taken seriously.
Just like he says he will not go all out to bid for land at record prices, I think for readers of this forum, we also got to caution you all NEVER bid or buy PCs are record prices within the vicinity. There are many good buys now in the market, but if you see something that is priced way above all PCs around it, be it new or old, do walk away. Pick something that is selling at a discount to the highest price.
The peak prices we see now maybe here to stay for a long time. And this time round, the government is the one trying to cap it.
Happy buying !
DKSG
if those new project don't sell higher than the surrounding, then who would buy those old resale? will those old units look attractive?? don't buy record high then how u sell at record high? which developer now is selling below a median price of the surrounding? like that say then new project don't need to sell liao because most of the launching price are above the average in the surrounding ones.
the real question is, how much premiums should one pay...:2cents:
I'm not questioning on your strategy of buying resale one which some may be under valued, don't get me wrong...:2cents:Therein lies the dilemma. Developers cannot impose D9 pricing on D19 units. Similarly, pricing below surrounding old units may not be possible either because they probably bought that land at those prices and profit is of utmost priority to these developers. That is why striking an intricate balance is necessary. Furthermore, with all those ABSDs, etc, we suddenly see new unit sizes shrinking so as to command higher psf. That is the only way forward for the developers to ensure they don't eat grass. Selling too high and no buyers. Selling too low and developers eat grass. Hmmm...
I suppose the only way to not buying at record high $ is oni through acquiring undervalued ppty.
new projects sure will break history record.
One gd eg of undervalued ppty will be makenzie at D9.
but the qn is, issit really undervalued, or the value is very much lower becos it is less attractive/much inferior?
thomastansb
13-08-13, 22:37
I have to fully 100% agree with you on this - But to speak a word of fairness, NO GOVERNMENT ON THIS PLANET will look out for your interest like THEY DO.
Well said. They have their flaws and make errors as well but I wouldn't want to trade them for another Government.
I always very unhappy when people say bad things about PAP.
Don't worry, I am not MIW.
But to speak a word of fairness, NO GOVERNMENT ON THIS PLANET will look out for your interest like THEY DO.
SO KEEP THIS IN MIND.
Don't go around saying people JIA-LIAO-BEE, that is hooligan language.
don't just buy because it is cheap....sometimes there are underlying reasons whey they look cheap. I wouldn't touch that development....:2cents: just my opinion. :o
I suppose the only way to not buying at record high $ is oni through acquiring undervalued ppty.
new projects sure will break history record.
One gd eg of undervalued ppty will be makenzie at D9.
but the qn is, issit really undervalued, or the value is very much lower becos it is less attractive/much inferior?
well, is SSD sound in the 1st place?
I feel tat the principle behind SSD is fundamentally right but practically wrong.
if their intention is to preventing flipping, they should impose SSD ONLY if ppty r being sold prior to TOP. They should not use the number of years to determine as there could be small projects which top 1.5 – 2 yrs after purchasing. Why should a pte ppty owner be penalised for selling after his ppty has TOPed?
If their intention is to discourage ppl from selling, SSD does not solve the problem at all, it merely deters. But at the end of the timeframe, the same problem occurs again.
Its to slow the process. people can use as investment but longer term than just flip for few mths for quick $ . When it quick $ i.e. few mths more people will jump in.
the argument of TOP or non new house are irrelevant. people flip everything regardless new or old.
making the duration longer take the weak players out. and the punters out. that would also still allow folks who are more financially sound to consider it as long term investment. taking the punting element out of the equation.
rymccondo77
14-08-13, 00:51
I have to fully 100% agree with you on this - But to speak a word of fairness, NO GOVERNMENT ON THIS PLANET will look out for your interest like THEY DO.
Well said. They have their flaws and make errors as well but I wouldn't want to trade them for another Government.
One thing I am definitely thankful for about our country Singapore - can eat safely in a restaurant unlike some other places !
Xu Xiao Xia
14-08-13, 01:20
PAP want to win big in 2016 and so far they really lookin good. Anti-PAP blogging seems to be less interesting compared to the last election. Now til 2016 election, assuming external demand remains status quo or rosier, there will be all kinds of effort to keep a lid on housing price to bolster electoral votes.
Spore rice bowl is something between Bahamas and Geneva for the Chinese and anyone rich from any part of the world. Sure its like sauna here, but who cares so long as my money is safe here. Current prices are already as expensive if not more expensive than the wealth management centre you trying to copy, Geneva.
No point getting distracted from now til election 2016. The important point is what happens post 2016? Assuming external conditions is as good, it all depends how well the government elevates Singapore status ahead of all wealth management centres.
The Latin Americans, the Russians, the Arabs and even continental Europe must be convinced that Singapore is the No 1 private banking spot in the world and if that can happen, you are looking at Woodlands $2000 psf.
PAP want to win big in 2016 and so far they really lookin good. Anti-PAP blogging seems to be less interesting compared to the last election. Now til 2016 election, assuming external demand remains status quo or rosier, there will be all kinds of effort to keep a lid on housing price to bolster electoral votes.
Spore rice bowl is something between Bahamas and Geneva for the Chinese and anyone rich from any part of the world. Sure its like sauna here, but who cares so long as my money is safe here. Current prices are already as expensive if not more expensive than the wealth management centre you trying to copy, Geneva.
No point getting distracted from now til election 2016. The important point is what happens post 2016? Assuming external conditions is as good, it all depends how well the government elevates Singapore status ahead of all wealth management centres.
The Latin Americans, the Russians, the Arabs and even continental Europe must be convinced that Singapore is the No 1 private banking spot in the world and if that can happen, you are looking at Woodlands $2000 psf.Indeed.. housing issues will be one of the topics discussed on 18 Aug, like you rightly pointed out... :spliff:
in fact, thanks to ssd, flippers are forced to flip later and over the years the property has appreciated much.
in fact, thanks to ssd, flippers are forced to flip later and over the years the property has appreciated much.
So which is the lesser of the evil? 1 person gaining 30% or 3 persons taking 10% gain each if there's no SSD in place?
Regardless, if property is in bull run everyone will gain so SSD or not, its the same :banghead:
So which is the lesser of the evil? 1 person gaining 30% or 3 persons taking 10% gain each if there's no SSD in place?
Regardless, if property is in bull run everyone will gain so SSD or not, its the same :banghead:
yeah, u r rite, dun flip doesn't mean the $ will stay stagnant during tis ssd period.
juz like a mum who has a son who ate 5 meals a day. in an attempt to control him, she said, in future u r only allowed to eat 1 meal per day.
do u tink he will only eat 1 bowl? most likely he will eat the 5 bowls of wat he used to eat or worser more bowls cos he is too hungry liao :D
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