indomie
05-08-13, 22:23
CNBC.com**08/05/13 3:03 AM ET
By: Ansuya Harjani
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Wang Zhao | AFP | Getty Images
Beijing may relax the country's one-child policy by the end of 2013, say China watchers, following local media reports in the recent days that the government is mulling changes to its highly unpopular restriction that has been in place for three and a half decades.
"China's one-child policy could be eased around end-2013. We believe that the reform-minded president Xi and premier Li will use the opportunity of abolishing the one-child policy to build up their authority, show their determination in making changes and convince the Chinese people that they do have a roadmap for reforms," Ting Lu and Xiaojia Zhi, China economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BoFAML) wrote in a note over the weekend.
(Read More: The Backroom Battle Delaying Reform of China's One-Child Policy)
State news agency Xinhua late Friday reported that policymakers are deliberating whether to allow couples, where one parent is an only child, to have two children. Currently, both parents must be sole children to be eligible for a second child. The government is also assessing whether to allow all families to have two children after 2015, according to local media.
BoFAML estimates that the policy change, if implemented, could result in 9.5 million additional babies being born in the first five years post reform, or almost 2 million per year, as women fulfill their desire to have a second child. Approximately 16 million babies are born in the mainland each year.
By: Ansuya Harjani
*** * *
Wang Zhao | AFP | Getty Images
Beijing may relax the country's one-child policy by the end of 2013, say China watchers, following local media reports in the recent days that the government is mulling changes to its highly unpopular restriction that has been in place for three and a half decades.
"China's one-child policy could be eased around end-2013. We believe that the reform-minded president Xi and premier Li will use the opportunity of abolishing the one-child policy to build up their authority, show their determination in making changes and convince the Chinese people that they do have a roadmap for reforms," Ting Lu and Xiaojia Zhi, China economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BoFAML) wrote in a note over the weekend.
(Read More: The Backroom Battle Delaying Reform of China's One-Child Policy)
State news agency Xinhua late Friday reported that policymakers are deliberating whether to allow couples, where one parent is an only child, to have two children. Currently, both parents must be sole children to be eligible for a second child. The government is also assessing whether to allow all families to have two children after 2015, according to local media.
BoFAML estimates that the policy change, if implemented, could result in 9.5 million additional babies being born in the first five years post reform, or almost 2 million per year, as women fulfill their desire to have a second child. Approximately 16 million babies are born in the mainland each year.