View Full Version : Its time to exit
Understand from some property agents that the rental and sale markets are slow. And the recent report from the newspaper also indicated that it takes a longer time to find tenant and the rates are lower. I believe the time has come to exit the property market. Property investment is no longer attractive. Any differing opinion?
totally agree sell sell sell stay changi beach for a few years:D:D:D then buy again:D:D:D
totally agree sell sell sell stay changi beach for a few years:D:D:D then buy again:D:D:D
Rent a tent!!! :p :scared-4: :doh:
exit if u can have a decent substantial cash out and put the money to better use.
otherwise cost of replacement is simply too high in the foreseeable future. meaning until 2015.
Do you guys think the CMs will be removed when the property market is down by let say 20%??
Understand from some property agents that the rental and sale markets are slow. And the recent report from the newspaper also indicated that it takes a longer time to find tenant and the rates are lower. I believe the time has come to exit the property market. Property investment is no longer attractive. Any differing opinion?
with exiting the property market, wat r u gg to do with yr condo which hv juz top-ed? if rental rate is below yr expectation, do u tink the sale $ will be satisfactory?
Do you guys think the CMs will be removed when the property market is down by let say 20%??
in the 1st place, will $ even drop 20%?
for me, if can drop 20%, I wun even care a damn abt the absd!
There is a good chance the US and EU economy improve significantly in 2014. Rental might be sustained in general or even go up in certain areas.
Trust me, when market is down by say 20%, not only that all CMs removed, even heating measures like deferred payment scheme (introduced previously) had proven to be useless! You will not get buyers to buy at the price you want to sell!
But the reverse is also true! When market is heating up, all CMs will be useless and you will not get sellers to easily sell at the market price you are willing to buy! Those that sell at market price or even below must have reasons.................................. :scared-1:
Do you guys think the CMs will be removed when the property market is down by let say 20%??
Trust me, when market is down by say 20%, not only that all CMs removed, even heating measures like deferred payment scheme (introduced previously) had proven to be useless! You will not get buyers to buy at the price you want to sell!
But the reverse is also true! When market is heating up, all CMs will be useless and you will not get sellers to easily sell at the market price you are willing to buy! Those that sell at market price or even below must have reasons.................................. :scared-1:
Agreed.
I'm biased towards selling though.:cool:
But new pl not ready so got to hang on n pray
Do you guys think the CMs will be removed when the property market is down by let say 20%??
later i sms kbw and ask him:D:D:D
dont know la bro nowadays spore property market got so many pattern by
the authorities:doh:
Agreed.
I'm biased towards selling though.:cool:
But new pl not ready so got to hang on n pray
bro i pray with u:cheers4: liverpool supporters say you will never
walk alone:D:D:D
bro i pray with u:cheers4: liverpool supporters say you will never
walk alone:D:D:D
Thanks man, tahan until 2015 :cool:
HUAT AHHHHHHHHH
Thanks man, tahan until 2015 :cool:
HUAT AHHHHHHHHH
Why 2015??
with exiting the property market, wat r u gg to do with yr condo which hv juz top-ed? if rental rate is below yr expectation, do u tink the sale $ will be satisfactory?
in the 1st place, will $ even drop 20%?
for me, if can drop 20%, I wun even care a damn abt the absd!
Will definitely hold on to the property. Fortunately the holding costs are low. Will not buy anymore.
There is a good chance the US and EU economy improve significantly in 2014. Rental might be sustained in general or even go up in certain areas.
but when US and EU economy improve significantly, Fed will raise interest rates.
Assume rental is up like wat u said, r ppty owners better or worser off?
n when int rate rises, high chance of hot $ flowing out of sg. will rental be sustainable?
Why 2015??
TOP , haha:cool:
Will definitely hold on to the property. Fortunately the holding costs are low. Will not buy anymore.
since yr project is purchased abt 2 yrs ago, yr cost is still low. Even if u managed to get oni 2.2k rental, yr yield is still high, no?
as to whether to buy or not, actually there is no nid to make a decision rite now. juz accum more $ & see how. if a crash come & u can find a gd deal, y not? if price juz get higher & u dun foresee able to buy another one, den juz use yr excess cash to pay off yr loan.
TOP , haha:cool:
Oh ic. I thought got something good in 2015. :D
totally agree sell sell sell stay changi beach for a few years:D:D:D then buy again:D:D:D
changi beach TOP already? upgrading completed?
Trust me, when market is down by say 20%, not only that all CMs removed, even heating measures like deferred payment scheme (introduced previously) had proven to be useless! You will not get buyers to buy at the price you want to sell!
But the reverse is also true! When market is heating up, all CMs will be useless and you will not get sellers to easily sell at the market price you are willing to buy! Those that sell at market price or even below must have reasons.................................. :scared-1:
have to agreed with this, it comes down to people's mindset.
Once the trend is bullish, you can stop the fanatics...
everyone join in no matter what it takes.
but warren buffet thinks one should do the opposite
totally agree sell sell sell stay changi beach for a few years:D:D:D then buy again:D:D:D
Changi Beach is District Tent dun pray pray :D
Do not sell any of your property. Buying back will be very tough. Y? Because the amount of loan bank will loan out to u now is very very small. This rule is going to be permanent or for very long term. It is far less than 60% of your monthly income. Recently accompany a friend to ocbc and ask. Ocbc said can only loan him $500k based on his gross income of $8600 per month! Btw He got no other loan. He is only 37yrs old.
I don't know about other banks because didn't ask.
Allthepies
02-08-13, 13:10
Do not sell any of your property. Buying back will be very tough. Y? Because the amount of loan bank will loan out to u now is very very small. This rule is going to be permanent or for very long term. It is far less than 60% of your monthly income. Recently accompany a friend to ocbc and ask. Ocbc said can only loan him $500k based on his gross income of $8600 per month! Btw He got no other loan. He is only 37yrs old.
I don't know about other banks because didn't ask.
Tat is sad.. maybe he should try foreign bank, as they are more willing to lend more. .
Even if crisis do come or correction come how much can one still loan? Probably ones will miss the boat again.
If Sell u can forget about buying back again.
Singles now can only buy resale hdb or small condo as the amount of loan is too little.
Even if crisis do come or correction come how much can one still loan? Probably ones will miss the boat again.
If Sell u can forget about buying back again.
Singles now can only buy resale hdb or small condo as the amount of loan is too little.
Singles now hv the option to buy bto leh ...
Singles now hv the option to buy bto leh ...
More than $5000 gross monthly income cannot buy bto.
phantom_opera
02-08-13, 15:48
The more this kind of thread title appears, the more it is less likely we are at the peak ... we are just at slippery slope
Market crashes only come when u least expect it ... how many ppl here will know Lehman Brother going to be the cause of a big crash back in 2008?? The US garmen made a mistake ... they bailed out the top banks but leave Lehman to die, creating a chain reaction :scared-4:
from then on, everybody learns ... they rescue many other banks, Germany bailed out Greece, Italy, Spain ... IMF bailed out whom I forgot ...
just when Bernanke is worried about inflation and bond bubble, u think crash is coming :p
The problem is inflation does not come... If inflation still don't come, what will our bro ben do? He must be scratching his head and think what must I do to create inflation...
Why 2015??
B'cos 2016 will be the dramatic year of the change - according to the "Waiting for 2016" or the VTO2016 brigade.:D
TOP , haha:cool:
sama sama same same:cheers1:
Changi Beach is District Tent dun pray pray :D
good one:D:D:D
Do not sell any of your property. Buying back will be very tough. Y? Because the amount of loan bank will loan out to u now is very very small. This rule is going to be permanent or for very long term. It is far less than 60% of your monthly income. Recently accompany a friend to ocbc and ask. Ocbc said can only loan him $500k based on his gross income of $8600 per month! Btw He got no other loan. He is only 37yrs old.
I don't know about other banks because didn't ask.
I am sure have some reason why don't want to borrow him more... But I am very sure not because of government policy ba... The bank must also access whether u can repay that money and whether your income is stable...
Do not sell any of your property. Buying back will be very tough. Y? Because the amount of loan bank will loan out to u now is very very small. This rule is going to be permanent or for very long term. It is far less than 60% of your monthly income. Recently accompany a friend to ocbc and ask. Ocbc said can only loan him $500k based on his gross income of $8600 per month! Btw He got no other loan. He is only 37yrs old.
I don't know about other banks because didn't ask.
Based on his age, he shld be able to buy an approx. 1.45MM property (80% loan with installment of 5160 per mth for the next 28 years @3.5% Int)
Is he on commission basis as well? Haircut of 30% applies to his bonus/commission figures
sama sama same same:cheers1:
I hope price can hold till then:cool:
I look at the whole situation differently, i could be wrong....u can make your guess..:)
two pts:
1) AEC bring positive impact to property and rental market from 2015 and beyond. do you think if you and all others can see that there could be an over supply, rental market weakening and so on, Mr K and his scholars cannot see? I assume they also can see. But why are they building so many BTO and still releasing land for developers? And recently, even worst, why so many EC??
Think positive, if more ppl start to come to Sg, we need place for them to stay. So where do they stay? We are not talking about expat, we are talking about certain level of skilled talents, etc. They can become PR and eventually, will need to rent or buy a hdb. not all can afford condo of course. So, will there be over supply, i think not...:D the last thing garmen want is to put more stress to our infrastructure and this time round not mrt, its housing. when we have more EC, allow our SGean to upgrade, and then later sell their hdb to PR...and also when more private owner upgrade to their condo, they will also can rent out hdb, why not. all in all, by making hdb affordable with mass supply, let EC owner earn from their HDB, and allowing hdb upgrader stay in hdb and have passive income, why not? Isnt this a win win for all? those more well to do foreigners will rent condo of course. still there could be a small group of ppl not happy but you can't satisfy all. But i think, generally if this work out, it might be a good plan.
2) DBS introduce cap for interest rate charging a fix rate for next few yrs saying that this will help you if interest rate rises, i think, they of course would benefit most if interest rate continue to be low...this will improve their profit margin. so which one more likely? :D if interest rate continue to be low, there will be less pressure on asset class. :2cents:
all in all, is it a good time to exit? rethink as some of you might already mentioned that it is even more difficult to re-enter the market. Unless you have a better tool to grow your money, i would say, no action is best action! :) just my opinion. :2cents:
or when the time comes, buy some more...:D
Oh ic. I thought got something good in 2015. :D
Commonsense should always prevail... never give in to emotional foibles.
Commonsense should always prevail... never give in to emotional foibles.
Most importantly for this thread, if any readers are worried that market will crash and are keen to exit at 10% below valuation, please inform Office Boy, without charging any fees on my part, I help you get buyers to get you out of the difficult situation.
DKSG
Most importantly for this thread, if any readers are worried that market will crash and are keen to exit at 10% below valuation, please inform Office Boy, without charging any fees on my part, I help you get buyers to get you out of the difficult situation.
DKSG
My holding power is 2 years. Will find you when 2 years up where market still down & 2 years still can't find tenants. Thanks in advance.
Plenty of vultures circling in the sky.
If one wants hassle free sale process, close in one week type, sell now!
Plenty of vultures circling in the sky.
If one wants hassle free sale process, close in one week type, sell now!
We are just trying to help out those who are worried.
We are kind people, not vultures la!
Hahahaaaa !
DKSG
PS : So far, no one willing to sell.
phantom_opera
03-08-13, 09:36
phantom's bold prediction:
S&P500 will reach 2,000 by end 2014
QE will stop in mid 2014, tapering starts in September, bond market will stabilize around 3% in early 2014, 3.5% end 2014
If not because of the ABSDs, SSDs, CCR will be moving up like mad but when S&P500 reaches 2,000 .... buying will return
Plenty of vultures circling in the sky.
If one wants hassle free sale process, close in one week type, sell now!
Wait for me to sell, I think the vultures will become zombies. Developers are still bidding land like nobody's business. You should wait for this group of jokers, no financial knowledge anyhow bit. Soon lelong coming.
If you think crash is coming,
SELL NOW LOR!
We are just trying to help out those who are worried.
We are kind people, not vultures la!
Hahahaaaa !
DKSG
PS : So far, no one willing to sell.
Yes, no one will sell because the interest rate is low and employment is o.k.
Regulators
03-08-13, 09:54
The dumbest thing to do is to sell the only house u live in, rent a place elsewhere n wait to buy a similar house in anticipation of a drop in the prices. I hv seen people getting stuck in the rental mkt for a few years in the hope of getting big discounts.
I believe if the crash is to come, the effect will be greater this time. Too many condos have been built. :scared-1: :eek:
Regulators
03-08-13, 10:11
The condos hv been built in anticipation of rising population. 60000 homes pales in comparison to an increase in another 1+million people on our tiny island. It is only a matter of whether the yearly influx of pty buying foreigners can fill the units quick enough before sellers are forced to reduce pxs/rents.
I believe if the crash is to come, the effect will be greater this time. Too many condos have been built. :scared-1: :eek:
Allthepies
03-08-13, 10:20
Several points to ponder upon..
1. Intetest rate is slowly creeping up...
2. Many MTB who waited and waited have finally jumped in...
3. Many people who have absolutely no interest about property investment have started asking around how to or want to invest in properties...
4. Come GE2016 and the population and growth target may be derailed...
5. Yield has dropped to 3-4%....
6. STI at all time high...
7. Many REITS created for smart owners to partially exit properties...
ya. IF i were to cash out of ppty i would also go for reits at 6 to 7 pct yields. no brainer... short of sgs bond hitting 5% then maybe will consider that instead... lol
I urge you to ponder more about it because you are cashing out property you have control to buy portion of properties you have no control & subject to whim of middlemen?
Most people just look at high yield of REITs now as attractive which is just temporarily & have not factor in the dilutions from frequent share-issuing to raise funds to cover their debts, esp when interest rise & REITs are just more heavily leveraged than even individual through their complicated shares, notes, bonds structure. (I am just surprise that REITS businesses can be given so much leeway with no CMs while individuals got hit with so many CMs)
Hope you understand what I mean...
ya. IF i were to cash out of ppty i would also go for reits at 6 to 7 pct yields. no brainer... short of sgs bond hitting 5% then maybe will consider that instead... lol
phantom_opera
03-08-13, 10:42
my fellow Singaporeans, look at KL crime, summer heat n winter haze in china, batman city of Hong Kong, deficit of Australia, inflation of India n Indon
it is time to buy lah for those mtb
Several points to ponder upon..
1. Intetest rate is slowly creeping up...
2. Many MTB who waited and waited have finally jumped in...
3. Many people who have absolutely no interest about property investment have started asking around how to or want to invest in properties...
4. Come GE2016 and the population and growth target may be derailed...
5. Yield has dropped to 3-4%....
6. STI at all time high...
7. Many REITS created for smart owners to partially exit properties...
I think this is what you analyse from behind the keyboard ?
On the ground, this is what is happening ...
1. Interest rate is touted to go up sometimes from middle of 2014 and increase will be gradual to ensure recovery is on track before increasing more. This can be seen in last night's Wall Street reaction to the unemployment rate announced. Talk to bankers and senior people in the banks to get a feel of the rate movements in 3,6,12 months.
2.Many who MTB is now locked up in the jetty by the CMs. Many who has the cash and wants to jump in are now carefully studying the new launch vs resale premium. Talk to people who are viewing resale together with new launches to get a feel.
3. Many who has no interest in properties previously start to understand that their silly $15K salary is getting them nowhere when compared to properties gains. So demand is slowly creeping up. My Office got a lot of these kinda of people. Think their $15K salary is a lot, until they hear the admin/secretaries are making $500K from a sale of a PC, then they realise how myopic they are. But by the time they ask Office Boy for guidance, their are no more very easy buys like 2-3 years back.
4. Come 2016 - Government will ensure that 90% of citizens who own properties can see that their properties are worth more then. They have to play the asset appreciation card. Because this is one of the things we are unsure if opp wins, we can maintain that. Who wants to see the property they stay in drop in value by 20% ?
5. Yield is already 3-4%. The way to look at yield is really to look at the yield vis-a-vis interest rate spread. If yield is 7% by interest rate is 6% like some neighboring countries, what is the pt ? Dont we prefer yield to be 3.5% but interest rates at 1% ? Many landlords are silently giggling to the banks now while complaining that rental rates is going down.
6. STI will continue to mount the all time high to create more all time highs in the coming months. Next year, as my mentor says, when the crazy horses come, banking sector (this one is I say one, dont blame on my mentor is it didnt turn out true) will chiong even further.
7. Many REITS created so that companies who has the expertise to buy better yielding buildings or assets not available to retail investors to gain while letting retail investors win some. You see the recent developer sales for retail shops - this is one way they bebefit man on the street.
Wah! This is one of the longest post Office Boy type. Even more than when working in office!
Type until hungry liao! Time to have brunch!
DKSG
PS : Have a Huat weekend! I am off to Marine One investor preview later !
thomastansb
03-08-13, 10:59
If the economy is strong, property will NEVER drop. Never in history has property prices dropped when the economy is doing fine. This time is not an exception either.
And for Singapore property to drop a lot like 97 or 2008, you need to have a world crisis. That means countries are failing, top MNCs are going bankrupt. When is it going to come? I think it is rare. Once every 10 years maybe.
Go see the URA chart if you don't believe.
96/97 - Asian financial crisis
2000 - .com bubble burst. Then follow by SARS in 2003
2008 - US Financial crisis
???? - ???? Crisis
What is MTB btw?
walkthetiger
03-08-13, 21:46
If the economy is strong, property will NEVER drop. Never in history has property prices dropped when the economy is doing fine. This time is not an exception either.
And for Singapore property to drop a lot like 97 or 2008, you need to have a world crisis. That means countries are failing, top MNCs are going bankrupt. When is it going to come? I think it is rare. Once every 10 years maybe.
Go see the URA chart if you don't believe.
96/97 - Asian financial crisis
2000 - .com bubble burst. Then follow by SARS in 2003
2008 - US Financial crisis
???? - ???? Crisis
What is MTB btw?
It seems getting shorter to wait for the next one coming....
I think this is what you analyse from behind the keyboard ?
On the ground, this is what is happening ...
1. Interest rate is touted to go up sometimes from middle of 2014 and increase will be gradual to ensure recovery is on track before increasing more. This can be seen in last night's Wall Street reaction to the unemployment rate announced. Talk to bankers and senior people in the banks to get a feel of the rate movements in 3,6,12 months.
2.Many who MTB is now locked up in the jetty by the CMs. Many who has the cash and wants to jump in are now carefully studying the new launch vs resale premium. Talk to people who are viewing resale together with new launches to get a feel.
3. Many who has no interest in properties previously start to understand that their silly $15K salary is getting them nowhere when compared to properties gains. So demand is slowly creeping up. My Office got a lot of these kinda of people. Think their $15K salary is a lot, until they hear the admin/secretaries are making $500K from a sale of a PC, then they realise how myopic they are. But by the time they ask Office Boy for guidance, their are no more very easy buys like 2-3 years back.
4. Come 2016 - Government will ensure that 90% of citizens who own properties can see that their properties are worth more then. They have to play the asset appreciation card. Because this is one of the things we are unsure if opp wins, we can maintain that. Who wants to see the property they stay in drop in value by 20% ?
5. Yield is already 3-4%. The way to look at yield is really to look at the yield vis-a-vis interest rate spread. If yield is 7% by interest rate is 6% like some neighboring countries, what is the pt ? Dont we prefer yield to be 3.5% but interest rates at 1% ? Many landlords are silently giggling to the banks now while complaining that rental rates is going down.
6. STI will continue to mount the all time high to create more all time highs in the coming months. Next year, as my mentor says, when the crazy horses come, banking sector (this one is I say one, dont blame on my mentor is it didnt turn out true) will chiong even further.
7. Many REITS created so that companies who has the expertise to buy better yielding buildings or assets not available to retail investors to gain while letting retail investors win some. You see the recent developer sales for retail shops - this is one way they bebefit man on the street.
Wah! This is one of the longest post Office Boy type. Even more than when working in office!
Type until hungry liao! Time to have brunch!
DKSG
PS : Have a Huat weekend! I am off to Marine One investor preview later !
DKSG - how is the Marina One preview? :)
DKSG - how is the Marina One preview? :)
I would love to be able to share, but share value not out yet, so I only got a verbal discussion that cannot be shared here.
Will inform you all once I can. What I can say is ...
WOW! Do watch out for it ... Akan Datang ...
DKSG
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