View Full Version : Hold forever, or sell at the right time?
This guy counters our jlrx philosophy of "meant to be bought and not sold".
He gives an example, hold 16 yrs earn 16% vs hold few yrs earn 20% profit in a run up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3jVK1f5bos&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Caveats:
1. You need impeccable timing to execute that
2. If everybody hold forever, agents all eat grass liao
Listen thru the rest of his preso to understand what investor thought process is like.
After watching more convinced that I should hold as long as I could, thanks.
Have to ask yourself a couple of questions:
How many are able to time the market?
Are you investing or flipping?
What is your holding power (or capital)?
If you had sold earlier last year, you must be fuming mad at not being able to buy them back with these CM. I know countless of friends who are so upset at not being able to buy their 2nd or 3rd after selling for a quick buck. And now they are all waiting for prices to dip 5 to 10% to get back in the game. So at the end of the day, if you really like the unit, just buy and hold out. Of course, you must not be over stretched.
This guy counters our jlrx philosophy of "meant to be bought and not sold".
He gives an example, hold 16 yrs earn 16% vs hold few yrs earn 20% profit in a run up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3jVK1f5bos&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Caveats:
1. You need impeccable timing to execute that
2. If everybody hold forever, agents all eat grass liao
Thank you for the youtube link. I learned that for investment, we should buy property with upwards trend curve and rental yield above 4% for suburban and 3% for Central district. So far i have only consider the rental yield and other data except the upwards trend curve which i think important too in term of price appreciation.
This guy counters our jlrx philosophy of "meant to be bought and not sold".
He gives an example, hold 16 yrs earn 16% vs hold few yrs earn 20% profit in a run up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3jVK1f5bos&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Caveats:
1. You need impeccable timing to execute that
2. If everybody hold forever, agents all eat grass liao
Thank you for the youtube link. I learned from this video that for investment, we should buy property with upwards trend curve and rental yield above 4% for suburban and 3% for Central district. So far i have only consider the rental yield and other data except the upwards trend curve which i think important too in term of price appreciation.
A few important points
1) Growth story
IMO, this is perhaps the most important of all, hence dont let people tell you all that nonsense about good and bad streets etc because in Singapore "bad" street will turn good, while "good" street will be forgotten.
2) Use current value to calculate your rental yield
Please dont let forummers here fool you when they start bragging about their high rental yield because only fools will use historical purchase price to calculate their yield.
3) Demand and Supply
Do let forummers here tell you that low transaction volume is good because it help stabilize price.
e.g.
In a down cycle, it is always better to have low transaction volume because there will be less comparables for people to whack down your price.
4) CCR properties are NOT all the same.
No all CCR property are worth keeping or worth investment. So dont let people fool you that buying CCR property is always good.
Allthepies
01-08-13, 07:31
Yup agree, buy and sell only when u have the skill and luck, the rest should just hold forever. Another condition is to sell when u can make more returns elswhere.
A lot of these are common sense but people just refuse to take heed until some expert who had helped his clients keep on making money round after round say the same thing.
However, i have a big question.
Those projects that he advocate to sell, i wonder what is the rationale to buy for the other side??? If no buyer, how to sell? Sounds to me like passing the buck. In this case, passing a lemon.
Esp for a project that has flatlined, bad rental yield and no growth story. Eg. REFLECTIONS
I think n think n think, can only think of one reason.
Someone who absolutely for whichever reason falls in love with the look or design or facilities or address of the project. Makes sense?
No need to think so hard. You have better common sense than him.
If he is confident that he is right, he won't stand there to talk and talk.
Esp for a project that has flatlined, bad rental yield and no growth story. Eg. REFLECTIONS
I think n think n think, can only think of one reason.
Someone who absolutely for whichever reason falls in love with the look or design or facilities or address of the project. Makes sense?
A lot of these are common sense but people just refuse to take heed until some expert who had helped his clients keep on making money round after round say the same thing.
However, i have a big question.
Those projects that he advocate to sell, i wonder what is the rationale to buy for the other side??? If no buyer, how to sell? Sounds to me like passing the buck. In this case, passing a lemon.
Esp for a project that has flatlined, bad rental yield and no growth story. Eg. REFLECTIONS
I think n think n think, can only think of one reason.
Someone who absolutely for whichever reason falls in love with the look or design or facilities or address of the project. Makes sense?
Watched. This is nothing more than the usual agent sales pitch. investor thought process is not just looking at charting trend... that's trading, not investing. And trading only benefits the brokers.
regency321
01-08-13, 10:18
If property agents advocate you to buy and hold forever, there will be fewer transactions and less business for them in future, with rental becoming their bread and butter? So no matter what, they will ask you to buy and sell, buy and sell, 'upgrade your lifestyle'... only then can they earn your commission.
During buying/selling, besides your comm, they also get comm from bank loan referrals, renovations, movers, furniture whatever you can name.
It is a 见人说人话， 见鬼讲鬼话 situation, they will say what you like/need to hear to seal the deal.
If property agents advocate you to buy and hold forever, there will be fewer transactions and less business for them in future, with rental becoming their bread and butter? So no matter what, they will ask you to buy and sell, buy and sell, 'upgrade your lifestyle'... only then can they earn your commission.
During buying/selling, besides your comm, they also get comm from bank loan referrals, renovations, movers, furniture whatever you can name.
It is a 见人说人话， 见鬼讲鬼话 situation, they will say what you like/need to hear to seal the deal.
Whether u choose to believe an agent is solely to one's business trust and discretion, Risk Appetite and change.
i wonder how many buyers/sellers ever thanked their agents when they made a good decision based on the agents assessment, research and logic...
I'm glad that i did trusted the agent to vest in southbank back in 2007. During that time i was very skeptical because that project was facing opp the HDBs! & i thought no one would ever rent or want to stay there.
Whether u choose to believe an agent is solely to one's business trust and discretion, Risk Appetite and change.
i wonder how many buyers/sellers ever thanked their agents when they made a good decision based on the agents assessment, research and logic...
I'm glad that i did trusted the agent to vest in southbank back in 2007. During that time i was very skeptical because that project was facing opp the HDBs! & i thought no one would ever rent or want to stay there.
dont forget ultimately u as the buyer is the one making the final decision, not the agent.
as a buyer i expect a good agent to primarily close deal and find me the units i want. But i will be careful if an agent seeks to become my investment adviser as what the speaker in the video is advising... it is the same reason why i rather manage my own stock portfolio instead of buying into funds or unit trusts or let others manage for me. But i do not disagree that it may work for others.
Well, to be fair, there are quite a number of projects which he would advise clients to hold and keep status quo.
There is no straight forward answer to this.
Let Office Boy share his story a bit.
Over the years, Office Boy bought hold and sell off when he thinks it hits a peak (ie upward potential less than 15%), then move on to hunt for more PCs with captial appreciation of more than 40%.
So for every one unit I sell, I can buy back TWO!
Always go for undervalued units, NEVER buy at a peak of whichever PC or area.
For developer sales, I always buy at the first launch, then developer slowly inch their price up. For some of these new launches, I buy at 15% lower than the last person.
So, from the first PC, sell, buy 2, then sell off buy 4 until now ... xxx number ...
So remember, ALWAYS buy something that is under valued, never chiong with people buy the most expensive one in the area of the PC. Thus NEVER buy last few units at the highest price compared to the rest.
Must always sell to realised the profit, but never too early. Office Boy got some units sold too early, so I make $300K in 3 years but the next buyer make $500 within 2 years !
DKSG
Indeed, paper profit is just... paper profit. Until realised as cash in hand.
Unless you refinance to new valuation and cash out the difference.
Indeed, paper profit is just... paper profit. Until realised as cash in hand.
Unless you refinance to new valuation and cash out the difference.
When agent tell you "growth" story, it means game over!
The story already grown liao! So people selling.
DKSG
I just watched the whole video.
Most of it is rubbish!
We should listen to what he says and avoid the mistakes he makes.
Amaryllis Ville is a 99 year project surrounded by FH projects. It has volume because it has 500+++ units.
Inspira has very few units thats why volume so low. It is a laggard in CCR with a good chance of appreciation as it sits beside Martin 38. A good neighbour that is selling at $2,750 psf! It wont take long for it to catch up a bit from the current pricing.
Reflections - who doesnt know it is slightly over priced now ?
and blah blah ... I think most of it rubbish ...
Readers beware that agents are just "swinging" you around. Dont be taken in. Do your homework and look further out into the future.
They might as well invite Office Boy to talk ! Hahahaa!
DKSG
dont forget ultimately u as the buyer is the one making the final decision, not the agent.
as a buyer i expect a good agent to primarily close deal and find me the units i want. But i will be careful if an agent seeks to become my investment adviser as what the speaker in the video is advising... it is the same reason why i rather manage my own stock portfolio instead of buying into funds or unit trusts or let others manage for me. But i do not disagree that it may work for others.
I did my own homework and was convinced myself before i decided to pull out cheque. True enough, it turn out well
Have a look at the economic situation now and near future, then make your own decision. I made decision, sold and recognised revenue.
Sleeping well :sleep:
congrats. hope that profit is used in making u more money and not just sitting idle...
congrats. hope that profit is used in making u more money and not just sitting idle...
Thanks. Learned from previous experiences. If price keeps on going up, sooner or later it'll will correct itself, sometimes goes south very quickly. The pain of making less money while taking risk of hold & wait, is less painful than seeing profit drop or losing money.
Don't want to be too greedy. Enough profit, so took decision to take profit off the table. My 2 cents.
Thanks. Learned from previous experiences. If price keeps on going up, sooner or later it'll will correct itself, sometimes goes south very quickly. The pain of making less money while taking risk of hold & wait, is less painful than seeing profit drop or losing money.
Don't want to be too greedy. Enough profit, so took decision to take profit off the table. My 2 cents.
Same bro, realised the profits and sold off late last year.
Now exploring other instruments for investment. ABSD is too fierce to play now
This guy counters our jlrx philosophy of "meant to be bought and not sold".
He gives an example, hold 16 yrs earn 16% vs hold few yrs earn 20% profit in a run up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3jVK1f5bos&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Caveats:
1. You need impeccable timing to execute that
2. If everybody hold forever, agents all eat grass liao
I didn't bother to watch the youtube.. But there are some question I need to ask:
1. Hold 16-yrs & earn 16%.. meaning leaving the whole house empty for 16-yrs?
2. If stay for 16-yrs & earn 16%.. then is difference again.. cos already saved you 16-yrs (192-mths) for paying rental elsewhere
3. If is not for stay but rented out for 16-yrs & at the end of 16-yrs earn another 16%.. so how to calculate?
I didn't bother to watch the youtube.. But there are some question I need to ask:
1. Hold 16-yrs & earn 16%.. meaning leaving the whole house empty for 16-yrs?
2. If stay for 16-yrs & earn 16%.. then is difference again.. cos already saved you 16-yrs (192-mths) for paying rental elsewhere
3. If is not for stay but rented out for 16-yrs & at the end of 16-yrs earn another 16%.. so how to calculate?
why not take some time to watch the video instead of always thinking you know it all.
why not take some time to watch the video instead of always thinking you know it all.
If I think I know it all.. I wouldn't ask questions lol..
You mean I must watch the video then you can answer my question??
What if after watching the video.. I still ask you the same question?? How??
If I think I know it all.. I wouldn't ask questions lol..
You mean I must watch the video then you can answer my question??
What if after watching the video.. I still ask you the same question?? How??
someone already kind enough to share the video, just go watch.
If too lazy to watch, then why bother. Might as well watch Korea Drama.
DKSG already gave a fitting summary of it.
Watched the video and learned to use history transaction price chart and rental yield as another tool to make decision whether to buy or sell.
Anyone here know where to find history transaction price chart that indicate 10 years of transaction?
I tried search the internet can only find the most 5 years transaction from http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.2 Copyright © 2024 vBulletin Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.