View Full Version : Ringgit drops to 15-year-low against Singapore dollar
phantom_opera
30-07-13, 12:26
If u bought Iskandar at 2.4 ... 2.55 u already lose 6.25% :scared-1:
If it revisits 2.7 historical low ... good luck :banghead:
If u bought Iskandar at 2.4 ... 2.55 u already lose 6.25% :scared-1:
If it revisits 2.7 historical low ... good luck :banghead:
but if buy now....good mah :)
Commodity currencies (ringgit, aussie, rupiah) are being hammered
A lot of ppl dun take this into consideration when they make overseas purchases against their base currency. Any drop of the currency or strengthening of the Sin may wipe out their gains
phantom_opera
30-07-13, 16:07
Commodity currencies (ringgit, aussie, rupiah) are being hammered
yup rupiah is even higher than during Lehman crisis, now 1SGD = 8111 IDR
if holding INR government bond or FD ...die liao
yup rupiah is even higher than during Lehman crisis, now 1SGD = 8111 IDR
if holding INR government bond or FD ...die liao
Of course money changer will asked for 1SGD = 8300 IDR
Rupiah is not going to recover because GE is coming, the gov is not going to tighten the liquidity. There is also an issue of redenomination of rupiah that could take effect next year.
But those Indonesian who bot Singapore properties pre- 1997 all laughing to the bank leh.....
:cheers4::cheers4::cheers4::cheers4::cheers4:
If u bought Iskandar at 2.4 ... 2.55 u already lose 6.25% :scared-1:
If it revisits 2.7 historical low ... good luck :banghead:
Most are in the process of paying instalment, so it is not necessary a bad thing.
Malaysia's export seems to be weakening recently. I think it is over-dependent on electrical and electronics sector. On the other hand, the real estate and construction industries in Johor are over-heated.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/exports
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/244834-analysis-dark-clouds-over-malaysian-exports-to-stay.html
phantom_opera
30-07-13, 17:09
Most are in the process of paying instalment, so it is not necessary a bad thing.
Malaysia's export seems to be weakening recently. I think it is over-dependent on electrical and electronics sector. On the other hand, the real estate and construction industries in Johor are over-heated.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/exports
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/244834-analysis-dark-clouds-over-malaysian-exports-to-stay.html
many paid cash as effective interest rate is too high in MY
many paid cash as effective interest rate is too high in MY
Those are the old rich retirees in their 50s.
Most in their 30s to 40s take some loan. The bulk belongs to this group.
many paid cash as effective interest rate is too high in MYNope, those savy enough will opt for max loan as the S$ appreciation will be much more than the bank loan rate of 4.25%
phantom_opera
30-07-13, 17:42
Nope, those savy enough will opt for max loan as the S$ appreciation will be much more than the bank loan rate of 4.25%
Of course your point is valid
how about those not savvy lol ... real life example lah, I know a friend (not retiree, about early forties) paid 200k cash for Iskandar
Of course your point is valid
how about those not savvy lol ... real life example lah, I know a friend (not retiree, about early forties) paid 200k cash for IskandarThose retiree heck care them lah. Can afford to retire so early, all this fluctuations are spare change :cheers5:
The MYR to SGD is one of the most stable currency band, and has been betw 2.35 to 2.5 for many years liao, compared to say, USD to SGD.
One must also consider the currency movement against the capital appreciation. The capital appreciation has been what? Min 30-40% for these 2 years? I am referring to all kinds of properties from industrial, commercial to residential.....
By Liau Y-Sing
July 30 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysia’s 10-year government bonds
fell, driving the yield to a two-year high, on concern global
investors will repatriate funds after $2.9 billion of sovereign
debt matures tomorrow. The ringgit declined.
Capital outflows could cause the ringgit to underperform,
Dariusz Kowalczyk, a Credit Agricole CIB strategist in Hong Kong,
wrote in a research report today, as 10-year notes fell for a
fifth day, the longest stretch in a month. Overseas investors
held 33 percent of Malaysian government debt in May, the highest
proportion among Southeast Asia’s biggest economies, according
to central bank and finance ministry data.
“The concern is that investors will take their money and
shift it offshore,” said Khoon Goh, a senior strategist at
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Singapore. “The
market is trying to front-run this potential redemption
outflow.”
The yield on the 3.48 percent securities due March 2023
climbed 10 basis points, or 0.10 percentage point, to 4.04
percent as of 4:30 p.m. in Kuala Lumpur, data compiled by
Bloomberg show. That’s the highest for a benchmark of that
maturity since May 2011.
Market Vulnerable
Malaysia’s debt market is vulnerable to a global sell-off
because of the size of the overseas holdings, Arjun Shetty, a
rate strategist in Singapore at Deutsche Bank AG, said last week.
Borrowing costs on three-year bonds jumped to 3.69 percent
yesterday, a level not reached since November 2008.
The government sold 4.5 billion ringgit ($1.4 billion) of
2020 securities today at 3.889 percent, according to data
published on the central bank’s website. Demand exceeded the
amount on offer by 1.91 times.
The ringgit fell 0.2 percent to 3.2315 per dollar in Kuala
Lumpur, declining for a fifth day, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg. It earlier dropped as much as 0.4 percent to 3.2379,
the weakest level since July 2010. The currency lost 2.2 percent
in July and 5.4 percent this year.
A technical indicator signals the ringgit may rebound ahead
of the Federal Reserves’ July 30-31 meeting. The Federal Open
Market Committee has said it may start paring stimulus should
the U.S. economy meet the central bank’s forecasts.
The dollar’s 14-day relative strength index against the
Malaysian currency approached 70, a threshold that signals the
greenback may weaken.
The ringgit’s earlier decline was also due to concern about
a possible deterioration of Malaysia’s current-account balance,
Australia & New Zealand Banking’s Goh said.
The surplus fell to 8.7 billion ringgit in the January-
March period from 22.9 billion ringgit in the preceding three
months, official data show. The nation may record an $800
million current-account deficit in the second quarter, the first
shortfall since 1997, according to a July 26 research note from
Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
One-month implied volatility in the ringgit, a measure of
expected moves in the exchange rate used to price options, rose
16 basis points, or 0.16 percentage point, to 8.30 percent
phantom_opera
30-07-13, 18:29
wow ... $2.9 billion of sovereign debt matures tomorrow
that is probably like 1% of GDP?
If u bought Iskandar at 2.4 ... 2.55 u already lose 6.25% :scared-1:
If it revisits 2.7 historical low ... good luck :banghead:
Hah Ha Ha ..
That's why malaysian called us "gong kia" buying mudsland property
- against a backdrop of one-way street Foreign Currency exchange
- Mudsland plenty of muds, never run short wan of land wan
When Malaysian buy sing property they tell you everything is just the reverse
and a more compelling reason to hold and buy sing properties
:banghead: :banghead: :banghead:
phantom_opera
31-07-13, 12:35
as a technical guy, I can tell u both ringgit / rupiah has much more downside in the near term ... 2.55 is just the beginning, 2.72 more likely the next resistance
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-31/malaysian-stocks-fall-most-in-7-weeks-bonds-slump-on-fitch-cut.html
The yield on 3.48 percent government notes due March 2023 rose two basis points to 4.12 percent, the highest for a benchmark 10-year note since January 2011 and adding to an 18 basis-point increase yesterday. The two-year onshore interest-rate swap climbed one basis point to 3.35 percent.
The weaker RM will fuel stronger demand for Johor properties.
The weaker RM will fuel stronger demand for Johor properties.
yeah agreed.
i think anyone in singapore who over-leveraged themselves with SGD-MYR structures - if cannot even tahen a 10-20% swing in fx rates deserve to be wiped out lah..
i look at Iskandar as long term ...for people like me and Hyenergix who went in long time liao. 10% swing within a 200-500% gain in the past 5 years is nothing.
I said many times liao, too much froth especially in the condo market..i hope these guys learn a lesson that property investment in M'sia aint a speculating flip/flip market lah
:banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:
phantom_opera
31-07-13, 22:35
I will keep this thread up to monitor EM currency
AUD also looks like a diaster for FX play:
1 AUD = 1.1417 SGD -0.01006 (-0.873%)
chart of SGDMYR:
http://tradehaven.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/sgdmyr-fx-chart.jpg
phantom_opera
05-08-13, 15:14
1 AUD = 1.1288 SGD
1 SGD = 8,107.3600 IDR
1 SGD = 2.5516 MYR
If bought AUD at 1.30 ... can surrender liao :scared-3:
bargain hunter
05-08-13, 19:50
i m not monitoring currencies closely. that means sgd only depreciated against USD, HKD and CNY?
1 AUD = 1.1288 SGD
1 SGD = 8,107.3600 IDR
1 SGD = 2.5516 MYR
If bought AUD at 1.30 ... can surrender liao :scared-3:
phantom_opera
07-08-13, 10:30
EM currencies ===> USD
1 SGD = 2.5636 MYR
1 SGD = 8104 IDR
I heard from my friends that Batam ferry now offers unlimited monthly trips to Batam @ 472 all in
Batam is going to be taxi driver & SG single heaven soon
for those who enter the market earlier, it is always high risk high gain...you are rewarded in this case.
many think that even if the price started to drop, i still have time to run. but, don't forget, when one starts to run, many will start to run! and during that time, suddenly the you will realise where are all the buyers???
many overlook the interest rate in mal. even if you did not pay cash, you are not spared...you take loan and if the interest rate goes up, what will happen? :2cents:
the continue weakening of MYR will trigger?? :)
yeah agreed.
i think anyone in singapore who over-leveraged themselves with SGD-MYR structures - if cannot even tahen a 10-20% swing in fx rates deserve to be wiped out lah..
i look at Iskandar as long term ...for people like me and Hyenergix who went in long time liao. 10% swing within a 200-500% gain in the past 5 years is nothing.
I said many times liao, too much froth especially in the condo market..i hope these guys learn a lesson that property investment in M'sia aint a speculating flip/flip market lah
:banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:
phantom_opera
09-08-13, 22:38
1SGD = RM 2.5872 22:31 SGT
1SGD = IDR 8,176
Slowing and surely creeping up day by day
:scared-3:
The way I play Msia properties is to take up max MYR loan and get a high enough rental yield (6-7%) to cover installment (currently around 4.2%). In this way, I limit my FX risk to only the downpayment amount (15%)
Interest rates in Malaysia is domestic driven - so if interest rate goes up, it means economic activity is going up, so rental should go up (at least in theory).
If 1997 happens again, MYR will depreciate (and stay depreciated for a long time), and interest rates may spike up for only a few months. In this case, use the MYR funds accumulated from +ve carry (6% - 4.2%) in the past few years to pay for the higher installments in these few months.
yeah agreed.
i think anyone in singapore who over-leveraged themselves with SGD-MYR structures - if cannot even tahen a 10-20% swing in fx rates deserve to be wiped out lah..
i look at Iskandar as long term ...for people like me and Hyenergix who went in long time liao. 10% swing within a 200-500% gain in the past 5 years is nothing.
I said many times liao, too much froth especially in the condo market..i hope these guys learn a lesson that property investment in M'sia aint a speculating flip/flip market lah
:banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:
I was once as skeptical as most felt here not too long ago and I dont even bother to find out more about iskandar project.
However, during my recent family trip to Hello-Kitty Theme Park in Jun, my perception changed...
Unlike the good old days when properties were built before road access is ready... I noticed Iskandar Projects (Particularly in Medini and Putri Habour) road infrastructures are already in place before projects start construction..
We can choose to continue to sing down the Iskandar Project or ride on as early as possible...
I reckon Iskandar relationship with Singapore as identical to Hong Kong and Shenzhen...
Btw.. a strong Iskandar might be challenging for Singapore... and I think our leaders have to react fast.. if not.. faster as I think the potential power of Iskandar is huge.... Malaysia is no longer the same malayisa that our government wants us to believe... they are still slow.. we will be doom if we continue to underestimate them
.. if we cannot stop the train forward. . Might as well think how can we make do and gain with it...
To be open and candid... I've justed vested 2 weeks ago after some intense visits and researches....Paid rm12k booking fees and are waiting for my SNP from developer. . Yet to pay first 10% and I guessed the currency rate seem nice for me.
I was once as skeptical as most felt here not too long ago and I dont even bother to find out more about iskandar project.
However, during my recent family trip to Hello-Kitty Theme Park in Jun, my perception changed...
Unlike the good old days when properties were built before road access is ready... I noticed Iskandar Projects (Particularly in Medini and Putri Habour) road infrastructures are already in place before projects start construction..
We can choose to continue to sing down the Iskandar Project or ride on as early as possible...
I reckon Iskandar relationship with Singapore as identical to Hong Kong and Shenzhen...
Iskandar and sg is not similar to hk and shenzhen. Without hk, on its own shenzhen can actually prosper. Without sg, iskandar is nothing. This is a very important different.
What kind of economic activities has been identified, planned and executed for Iskander to make it sustainable?, afterall its land size is much larger than the whole of Singapore. Can a new town be built without economic production activities?
All these lead nicely towards the next phase of the property cycle :)
Perhaps so.. we shall see. :D
I buy not becos of invest but to prepare for retirement. ..:spliff:
If has appreciation. .take it as bonus.. if devalue.. so be it...:ashamed1:
Regulators
10-08-13, 13:50
With the kind of pxs Singaporeans r paying for iskandar Malaysians won't even go near that. Malaysian mentality is to own a piece of landed , not overpriced airspace. I hv spoken to too many Malaysian agents to confirm that. Iskandar will only be supported by Singaporean n foreign buyers, very much like Mont kiara in kl , just that the latter is in a more established n prestigious residential enclave.
Iskandar and sg is not similar to hk and shenzhen. Without hk, on its own shenzhen can actually prosper. Without sg, iskandar is nothing. This is a very important different.
The spade of shootings in Malaysia is terrible! Even Arab bank head also get gun down! Worrying to be in Malaysia! :scared-1:
With the kind of pxs Singaporeans r paying for iskandar Malaysians won't even go near that. Malaysian mentality is to own a piece of landed , not overpriced airspace. I hv spoken to too many Malaysian agents to confirm that. Iskandar will only be supported by Singaporean n foreign buyers, very much like Mont kiara in kl , just that the latter is in a more established n prestigious residential enclave.
Perhaps so.. we shall see. :D
I buy not becos of invest but to prepare for retirement. ..:spliff:
If has appreciation. .take it as bonus.. if devalue.. so be it...:ashamed1:
Not a good place to retire with all the ongoing crime rates there..
Now made even worse, they shoot u @ point blank range in broad daylight... :doh:
What kind of economic activities has been identified, planned and executed for Iskander to make it sustainable?, afterall its land size is much larger than the whole of Singapore. Can a new town be built without economic production activities?
You may want to drive in and have a look. Industrial developments include IPARC, Ascendas-UEM, Setia Business Park, SILC, NCIP etc...... Our own ASME and SPRING are v busy lately with Iskandar visits.
Note that I have not mentioned the so-called catalyst developments like LEGOLAND etc.
Regulators
10-08-13, 22:34
I heard local Malays sometimes can get away with rape n murder. Yes, law enforcement is a concern in Malaysia but for our govt to further collaborate with the Malaysian govt down the road , the security issue has to be addressed. If u go to Mont kiara which is an expat enclave , u will see the security there is heightened many times after a foreigner was kidnapped years back. Places recognised as expat community generally safer but of course that is not a guarantee.
The spade of shootings in Malaysia is terrible! Even Arab bank head also get gun down! Worrying to be in Malaysia! :scared-1:
I was once as skeptical as most felt here not too long ago and I dont even bother to find out more about iskandar project.
However, during my recent family trip to Hello-Kitty Theme Park in Jun, my perception changed...
Unlike the good old days when properties were built before road access is ready... I noticed Iskandar Projects (Particularly in Medini and Putri Habour) road infrastructures are already in place before projects start construction..
We can choose to continue to sing down the Iskandar Project or ride on as early as possible...
I reckon Iskandar relationship with Singapore as identical to Hong Kong and Shenzhen...
Btw.. a strong Iskandar might be challenging for Singapore... and I think our leaders have to react fast.. if not.. faster as I think the potential power of Iskandar is huge.... Malaysia is no longer the same malayisa that our government wants us to believe... they are still slow.. we will be doom if we continue to underestimate them
.. if we cannot stop the train forward. . Might as well think how can we make do and gain with it...
To be open and candid... I've justed vested 2 weeks ago after some intense visits and researches....Paid rm12k booking fees and are waiting for my SNP from developer. . Yet to pay first 10% and I guessed the currency rate seem nice for me.
Welcome to e dark side. Which one did u buy?
I heard local Malays sometimes can get away with rape n murder. Yes, law enforcement is a concern in Malaysia but for our govt to further collaborate with the Malaysian govt down the road , the security issue has to be addressed. If u go to Mont kiara which is an expat enclave , u will see the security there is heightened many times after a foreigner was kidnapped years back. Places recognised as expat community generally safer but of course that is not a guarantee.
SG also has to be more concerned about its own street safety. It seems to be getting worse. Probably on par with Bukit Indah now, or probably worse.
Regulators
10-08-13, 23:22
we havnt reached that level lah, bt indah u step out of the car hv to look left right n girls hv to clutch their bags tight tight wherever they go. i will nv buy a pty in johor iskandar or no iskandar
SG also has to be more concerned about its own street safety. It seems to be getting worse. Probably on par with Bukit Indah now, or probably worse.
we havnt reached that level lah, bt indah u step out of the car hv to look left right n girls hv to clutch their bags tight tight wherever they go. i will nv buy a pty in johor iskandar or no iskandar
A higher level of precaution is always necessary in foreign country.
Look also no use. Bullet come travel from long distance & high accuracy, you won't be able to see the shooter! :banghead:
we havnt reached that level lah, bt indah u step out of the car hv to look left right n girls hv to clutch their bags tight tight wherever they go. i will nv buy a pty in johor iskandar or no iskandar
Look also no use. Bullet come travel from long distance & high accuracy, you won't be able to see the shooter! :banghead:
Just last week, my colleague's vehicle windscreen was smashed broken parked outside a popular big shopping mall early evening in jb.
My colleague n his 3 guy friends had just gone fishing in jb n decided to drop by @ the mall on the way back.
All their expensive fishing rods costing 1k+ each were gone together with their other stuffs..
Unlikely this will happen in Singapore..
80% of the buyers are singaporean or PR. will it become a foreigner enclave or 二奶村？
Just last week, my colleague's vehicle windscreen was smashed broken parked outside a popular big shopping mall early evening in jb.
My colleague n his 3 guy friends had just gone fishing in jb n decided to drop by @ the mall on the way back.
All their expensive fishing rods costing 1k+ each were gone together with their other stuffs..
Unlikely this will happen in Singapore..
this isn't the mall just across the woodlands causeway is it?
this isn't the mall just across the woodlands causeway is it?
Should be 1 of those jusco mall with big open space carpark outside the building..
If there is no safety n security,property how cheap n nice is useless also.
My car kena smashed windscreen before. Parked at bukit indah for short while. And we parked very near to police station.
I am not heartache with what he took. I am upset bcos it gave my family big scare and followed by big clean up (fine glasses everywhere).
After that went to a car wash shop. They helped to vacuum. Took them 1hr and did not take any money. The chinese owner say this place has a lot of such incidents. Even the policemen showed us photos of different cars falling prey to such thefts.
Cheap / expensive. Local and foreign cars. So you tell me you want cheap housing or security? I prefer Spore.
Regulators
11-08-13, 21:30
My car never kenna smashed in Malaysia before , ironically it was smashed when I parked in jalan kayu along the roadside when I was having prata for less than half hour.
My car kena smashed windscreen before. Parked at bukit indah for short while. And we parked very near to police station.
I am not heartache with what he took. I am upset bcos it gave my family big scare and followed by big clean up (fine glasses everywhere).
After that went to a car wash shop. They helped to vacuum. Took them 1hr and did not take any money. The chinese owner say this place has a lot of such incidents. Even the policemen showed us photos of different cars falling prey to such thefts.
Cheap / expensive. Local and foreign cars. So you tell me you want cheap housing or security? I prefer Spore.
My car never kenna smashed in Malaysia before , ironically it was smashed when I parked in jalan kayu along the roadside when I was having prata for less than half hour.
Hahaha. Aiyoh, then yours is a case of people dun like your face. Did you walk with your arms swinging very high? Hahaha.
Just kidding. No offence.
Regulators
11-08-13, 22:48
think the grass patch dark. Just my luck lah
Hahaha. Aiyoh, then yours is a case of people dun like your face. Did you walk with your arms swinging very high? Hahaha.
Just kidding. No offence.
Welcome to e dark side. Which one did u buy?
The dark force is strong...:D
Bought Iskandar Residences @ Medini. .your?
The dark force is strong...:D
Bought Iskandar Residences @ Medini. .your?
Two landed - one in east and the other in west :)
Two landed - one in east and the other in west :)
Very adventurous. :cheers4:
phantom_opera
14-08-13, 15:59
http://tradehaven.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/sgdmyr-fx-chart.jpg
be very afraid!!! 03/31/1998 2.69 level if broken ... it will be hell
be very afraid!!! 03/31/1998 2.69 level if broken ... it will be hell
Why? Quite a lot of buyers are waiting for RM to weaken further so that the TT to pay the loan will be cheaper.
Is this currency about to follow the rupee’s crash course?
CNBC.com**08/13/13 11:07 PM ET
By: Leslie Shaffer
*** * *
Adek Berry | AFP | Getty Images
The spectacular fall in the rupee has been grabbing market attention in recent months, but the focus could soon shift to the Indonesian rupiah, which Credit Agricole warns could suffer the same fate as the embattled Indian currency.
Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior Asia ex-Japan strategist at Credit Agricole, said Indonesia's slowing growth and rising inflation, which exceeds India's, as well as an increasing current account deficit and low foreign exchange reserves, are starting to resemble the problems faced by India's economy.
"(The) fundamental picture is increasingly looking similar to India's but the rupiah has suffered much less and will need to catch up," Kowalczyk said.
(Read more: India's rupee hits record lows, here's what it means)
India's rupee has fallen nearly 13 percent against the dollar year-to-date, brushing a fresh record low around 61.87 last week. It currently trades around 61.19. The Indonesian rupiah, meanwhile, is down nearly 7 percent against the dollar this year, and currently hovers at around 10,285.
Agricole now expects the rupiah to weaken to around 10,400 against the dollar by year-end, noticeably more bearish than its previous forecast of 9,890.
PLAY VIDEO Perry Warjiyo, Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia says he is confident the aggressive interest rate hikes of the past two months will help bring back capital inflows and support the rupiah.
The rupiah weakness, together with the accelerating inflation, will likely prompt a rate hike by the Bank of Indonesia when it meets on Thursday, said Agricole. Indonesia's annual inflation hit 8.61 percent in July, its fastest pace in more than four years.
Kowalczyk expects the benchmark rate to rise by 25 basis points to 6.75 percent. Majority of analysts polled by Reuters expect no change in monetary policy.
Indonesia's central bank, like the Reserve Bank of India, has been actively trying to prop up its currency. In July, it moved to sell between $100 million to $150 million a day at levels, well below deal rates, in an apparent attempt to keep the rupiah below 10,000; it eventually relaxed its stance and the rupiah weakened further.
(Read more: Rate hike a pre-emptive strike: Indonesia official)
Capital outflows from Indonesia have continued, Kowalczyk writes, noting Indonesia's net portfolio inflows peaked at $6 billion in May and have turned into an outflow of up to $200 million.
Kowalczyk expects that as Bank Indonesia raises rates, inflation expectations will temper and spur further outflows. He adds that moves by the U.S. Federal Reserve to taper its asset purchases could exacerbate the trend.
Other analysts also have doubts about the rupiah, but they aren't as bearish.
(Read more: As rupiah declines, Indonesia moves to prevent panic)
According to Nizam Idris, head of strategy for fixed income and currencies at Macquarie, "Indonesia's current account and fiscal deficits are small" compared to India. "The dollar-rupiah could continue to rise, but I think it will be a lot slower than the rupee."
He also expects a quarter percentage point rate hike on Thursday, but a decision to keep rates steady wouldn't be a surprise. "The dollar rupiah has stabilized. That may actually be against another immediate hike, but going forward there's still the possibility of another hike."
The rupiah hit a record low during the Asian financial crisis in 1998 when it fell to as much as 16,800 against the dollar.
The problem facing Iskandar is an economy that is a little too hot. Construction works are very common and businesses are booming. You can probably say that it is growing at Singapore's expense.
do you know what will happen to the interest rate if the currency continue to weaken? :scared-5:
is it time now to strengthen MYR and expect a even lower growth rate? :2cents:
Why? Quite a lot of buyers are waiting for RM to weaken further so that the TT to pay the loan will be cheaper.
do you know what will happen to the interest rate if the currency continue to weaken? :scared-5:
is it time now to strengthen MYR and expect a even lower growth rate? :2cents:
malaysia bank negara controls short-term interest rates to target inflation.
As long as myr depreciation doesnt affect inflation, short term interest rate will remain low.
i m not worried msia inflation is going up like indonesia or india - becos msia is still net oil-exporter, and economy is domestic driven.
i m more worried for myr currency - US tapering not even started yet myr is already affected, so when actual tapering starts, worse thing can happen
http://tradehaven.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/sgdmyr-fx-chart.jpg
be very afraid!!! 03/31/1998 2.69 level if broken ... it will be hell
With so many singaporeans sell sgd buy myr to purchase the danga bay condos last weekend, sgdmyr should go up!
Maybe marina one project is starting soon so malaysia kanazah is selling myr buy sgd ?
Waiting for RM3 to S$1...................:p
With so many singaporeans sell sgd buy myr to purchase the danga bay condos last weekend, sgdmyr should go up!
Maybe marina one project is starting soon so malaysia kanazah is selling myr buy sgd ?
Waiting for RM3 to S$1...................:p
1. Cheaper to repay loan for existing owners w loan.
2. Demand will increase.
3. Developers will increase price.
4. Locals cannot afford.
5. Locals with business will do a roaring business.
locals buy other parts of johor to begin with.
phantom_opera
14-08-13, 23:08
SINGAPORE, Aug 14 (Reuters) - The Malaysian ringgit hit a fresh three-year low on Wednesday amid broad weakness in emerging Asian currencies, as solid U.S. retail data boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve may start scaling back its monetary stimulus soon.
The ringgit lost as much as 0.4 percent to 3.2720 per dollar, its weakest since June 2010, as investors added to their bearish bets on the currency.
“Malaysia is becoming more vulnerable to Fed tapering since they have high foreign bond positioning and the current account surplus is dwindling quickly,” said Sean Yokota, head of Asia strategy at Scandinavian bank SEB in Singapore.
The Malaysian currency is seen weakening to 3.3000 in the next six months, Yokota said.
=> a repeat of 1997 Asian currency crisis is unlikely, but it is enough to kill Iskandar
malaysia bank negara controls short-term interest rates to target inflation.
As long as myr depreciation doesnt affect inflation, short term interest rate will remain low.
i m not worried msia inflation is going up like indonesia or india - becos msia is still net oil-exporter, and economy is domestic driven.
i m more worried for myr currency - US tapering not even started yet myr is already affected, so when actual tapering starts, worse thing can happen
I recently heard that Msia has become a net importer of oil....
=> a repeat of 1997 Asian currency crisis is unlikely, but it is enough to kill Iskandar
My observations on the ground is actually the other way round - more people from Singapore are buying cheaper RM to go over for goods and services.
The only thing that is holding more people back is safety, which is actually not that bad as portrayed by our 154. Just avoid zone A, particularly near the checkpoint. Most stories are from there.
My observations on the ground is actually the other way round - more people from Singapore are buying cheaper RM to go over for goods and services.
The only thing that is holding more people back is safety, which is actually not that bad as portrayed by our 154. Just avoid zone A, particularly near the checkpoint. Most stories are from there.
Just to share what the ground there are talking...
Locals there suspect the MY government wanted to bring back emergency laws which they abolished 2 years ago by 那只鸡。
Motives: "political reasons".. rumours speculate that the "crimes" were actually have backing from some "atas"... reason: these "atas" can legitimately bring back the emergency laws..
Dont ask me how true.. cos I heard this from local business associates.. you draw your own conclusion...:2cents:
Fed tapering means US is recovering. I'm not sure why this is viewed negatively. There is only so much artificial growth in prices u can get from QE because it is not generating much value except to create bubble. If US recovers there will be more demand for goods n services, which allow ASEAN to export more. This will result in greater prosperity n attract more investments. We have just come out of long global recession, so I expect more growth n higher property prices ahead in e region (except for SG).
Fed tapering means US is recovering. I'm not sure why this is viewed negatively. There is only so much artificial growth in prices u can get from QE because it is not generating much value except to create bubble. If US recovers there will be more demand for goods n services, which allow ASEAN to export more. This will result in greater prosperity n attract more investments. We have just come out of long global recession, so I expect more growth n higher property prices ahead in e region (except for SG).
Why except for sg?
phantom_opera
15-08-13, 12:39
1 SGD = 5.5057 EGP (Egyptian Pound) (was 3.5 b4 Lehman)
1 SGD = 48.2905 INR (Indian Rupee) (was 30 b4 Lehman)
1 SGD = 1.8310 BRL (brazil real) (was 1.3 b4 Lehman)
1 SGD = 1.5215 TRY (Turkish) (was 0.5 b4 Lehman)
1 SGD = 3 MYR next??
3centsworth
15-08-13, 22:18
Fed tapering means US is recovering. I'm not sure why this is viewed negatively. There is only so much artificial growth in prices u can get from QE because it is not generating much value except to create bubble. If US recovers there will be more demand for goods n services, which allow ASEAN to export more. This will result in greater prosperity n attract more investments. We have just come out of long global recession, so I expect more growth n higher property prices ahead in e region (except for SG).
The QE or monetary easing has 2 fold objectives. The first is to inject large doses of liquidity so that credit is extended to businesses and individual alike at very low interest rate in order to spur growth and consumption. The second objective is to keep the dollar value low against creditor nations so as to encourage investments into the country.
Nonetheless, at some point , the US has to taper the QE program or it runs the risk of inflation when the dollar loses its status as a reserve currency.
QE end is not a bad thing when the US economy is humming along and there is confidence restored to the consumer in job growth and stability.
The danger of the QE tapering is that the FED may kill it too quick before the economy can stand on its feet. Credit will start to freeze up as the economy goes into a tailspin. People fear for their jobs and hold out on their spending and the economy will spiral downward.
Can fed afford to kill it? Can Obama allow it? Maybe that's why he is weighing in on the next fed chief
The QE or monetary easing has 2 fold objectives. The first is to inject large doses of liquidity so that credit is extended to businesses and individual alike at very low interest rate in order to spur growth and consumption. The second objective is to keep the dollar value low against creditor nations so as to encourage investments into the country.
Nonetheless, at some point , the US has to taper the QE program or it runs the risk of inflation when the dollar loses its status as a reserve currency.
QE end is not a bad thing when the US economy is humming along and there is confidence restored to the consumer in job growth and stability.
The danger of the QE tapering is that the FED may kill it too quick before the economy can stand on its feet. Credit will start to freeze up as the economy goes into a tailspin. People fear for their jobs and hold out on their spending and the economy will spiral downward.
I don't think it will be tapered so quickly. If US is in so much debt and has the gut to print so much money in the first place, it is capable of printing to keep interest rates low until the economy shows much signs of improvement. Unemployment above 5% is actually still a very bad sign of the economy.
phantom_opera
21-08-13, 18:26
don't say I never warned u
"There is a lot of resemblance to prior crises like 1997-98. We have had two countries going down, India and Indonesia, and now you have got to start thinking about the third and fourth countries," said Pradeep Mohinani, a Nomura credit analyst in Hong Kong.
"The likely candidates would be those with high fiscal deficits, slowing economies and high foreign ownership of government bonds. Thailand and Malaysia tick most of the boxes in that regard." Economists say that both those countries, as well as the fast-growing Philippines, are to some extent protected from major turmoil by their much stronger external balances compared with Indonesia and India.
Foreign money redeeming EM bonds and flowing back to US and US$? :cheers1:
don't say I never warned u
"There is a lot of resemblance to prior crises like 1997-98. We have had two countries going down, India and Indonesia, and now you have got to start thinking about the third and fourth countries," said Pradeep Mohinani, a Nomura credit analyst in Hong Kong.
"The likely candidates would be those with high fiscal deficits, slowing economies and high foreign ownership of government bonds. Thailand and Malaysia tick most of the boxes in that regard." Economists say that both those countries, as well as the fast-growing Philippines, are to some extent protected from major turmoil by their much stronger external balances compared with Indonesia and India.
Market talk is that Malaysia central bank has been selling USD buying MYR to protect MYR - desperate times call for desperate measures
What will MAS do? COE still inching up, wages inflating due to FT restriction =>inflation still a problem. So MAS will keep currency strong (relative to its biggest trading partners i.e. Malaysia) to prevent importation of inflation
So expect SGD/MYR going up - especially if tapering happens in Sep
You know why several changes announced by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong during his National Day Rally involving Changi Airport and a new Changi East air base.... Now we can get cheap sand and labor and we can start the project earlier during the downturn.
Where will you put your money, Singapore, US, Europe, China, Japan......
princess_morbucks
22-08-13, 11:38
1 SGD = 3 MYR next??
Almost there!
http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/money/story/malaysian-ringgit-hits-3-year-low-fed-tapering-view-20130822
SINGAPORE (REUTERS) - The Malaysian ringgit fell to its lowest in more than three years on Thursday as the US Federal Reserve looked set to taper its asset-buying programme next month.
The ringgit lost as much as 0.8 percent to 3.3200 per dollar, the weakest since June 2010.
On a technical chart, the Malaysian currency is seen weakening to 3.3345, the 50.0 percent Fibonacci retracement of its appreciation between 2009 and 2011.
You know why several changes announced by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong during his National Day Rally involving Changi Airport and a new Changi East air base.... Now we can get cheap sand and labor and we can start the project earlier during the downturn.
Where will you put your money, Singapore, US, Europe, China, Japan......
Yeah for goldilocks effects, better for sgd to strengthen against neighbouring countries for cheap raw material & perishables, and sgd to weaken against Usd to attract FDIs.
Be prepared to pay slightly more for iphone 5s next month which will coincide with QE tapering : )
phantom_opera
27-08-13, 14:30
SGD/MYR (SGDMYR=X) -CCY
2.5946 Up 0.0115
Heard some people targeting S$1:RM3.8 !!!
Wow!
Want to buy property in Malaysia? Can wait!
From now S$1:RM2.58 to S$1:RM3.8, will have discount of almost 48% !!! :D
Almost there!
http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/money/story/malaysian-ringgit-hits-3-year-low-fed-tapering-view-20130822
SINGAPORE (REUTERS) - The Malaysian ringgit fell to its lowest in more than three years on Thursday as the US Federal Reserve looked set to taper its asset-buying programme next month.
The ringgit lost as much as 0.8 percent to 3.3200 per dollar, the weakest since June 2010.
On a technical chart, the Malaysian currency is seen weakening to 3.3345, the 50.0 percent Fibonacci retracement of its appreciation between 2009 and 2011.
Heard some people targeting S$1:RM3.8 !!!
Wow!
Want to buy property in Malaysia? Can wait!
From now S$1:RM2.58 to S$1:RM3.8, will have discount of almost 48% !!! :D
usd/rm 3.8 izzit?
phantom_opera
28-08-13, 21:20
1SGD = 2.6034 RM intraday high:scared-5:
2.7 is near already
my relative called me from Malaysia after visiting Country Garden showflat .. he told me over the phone they have 9,000 units
I said ... so u wanna buy to rent out, phase 1 9k, phase 2 9k ... later Temasek go in 36k condo units ... he got my point and kept quiet :p
No, is S$1 : RM3.8, target price..............
usd/rm 3.8 izzit?
No, is S$1 : RM3.8, target price..............
Very, very, very unlikely leh...
http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/download_journals/files/2004/Volume1/Contents_Article_abdul.pdf
They can do the pegging dance again....
The "unwinding" or the fear of it is causing havock....
:scared-4: :scared-4:
When u buy a condo in jb u are helping them there to help roads and bridges. They will not do the high speed rail thing fast, they may drag and drag. Need to get the suckers in first. The rail story can go on and on so more sg people will go buy property there. Buy is easy, sell is hard.
I am still pondering --- what industry is going in to take up/swallow all the rental????
Retirement village, I understand.... Rental market, I blur???.
phantom_opera
29-08-13, 17:31
the cycle of death
http://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2013/08/28/Photos/ME/MW-BH518_spiral_20130828083947_ME.jpg
up interest rate?? next is India?
Bank Indonesia Raises Overnight Benchmark Rate 50 Bps to 7.0%
JAKARTA, Indonesia--Bank Indonesia raised its main policy rate by half a percentage point to 7.0% to help shore up the country's ailing currency and better manage inflation expectations. (Dow Jones)
When u buy a condo in jb u are helping them there to help roads and bridges. They will not do the high speed rail thing fast, they may drag and drag. Need to get the suckers in first. The rail story can go on and on so more sg people will go buy property there. Buy is easy, sell is hard.
Who are you going to sell to? Who are you going to rent to?
Are there so many Sinkies who aspire to retire to JB?
You fall sick there....need emergency medical service....good cardiologist...good surgeon.....it is not easy to get evacuated back to Singapore and you could die before you get back here. Over there, tikam tikam for the quality of the medical specialist. I heard some horror stories of medical specialists there. Their morals...ethics.... :scared-5:
Who are you going to sell to? Who are you going to rent to?
Are there so many Sinkies who aspire to retire to JB?
You fall sick there....need emergency medical service....good cardiologist...good surgeon.....it is not easy to get evacuated back to Singapore and you could die before you get back here. Over there, tikam tikam for the quality of the medical specialist. I heard some horror stories of medical specialists there. Their morals...ethics.... :scared-5:
Don't think it is that bad lah if not medisave won't be allowed to be used at the Regency Specialist Hospital like it is now. Heard good stories about the specialist there actually and my own relatives who were quite sick were also treated and got well in Malaysia and they didn't even have to pay much cause they r Malaysians.
Alot of malaysian want to be singapore citizen. The funny thing is Songaporean want to go Malaysia to retire. We are the pampered lot cannot take much stress.
Alot of malaysian want to be singapore citizen. The funny thing is Songaporean want to go Malaysia to retire. We are the pampered lot cannot take much stress.
Too much stress no good, can get mental breakdown, cancer, heart attack, stroke....not worth it...
Pegging to strengthen RM?
Not possible. if they want to peg to US$ and when RM drop, they have to buy more RM using say US$ to push up RM. Where they find US$ to exchange to RM when Malaysia already so poor hah?
Very, very, very unlikely leh...
http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/download_journals/files/2004/Volume1/Contents_Article_abdul.pdf
They can do the pegging dance again....
The "unwinding" or the fear of it is causing havock....
:scared-4: :scared-4:
Pegging to strengthen RM?
Not possible. if they want to peg to US$ and when RM drop, they have to buy more RM using say US$ to push up RM. Where they find US$ to exchange to RM when Malaysia already so poor hah?
In 1998, they pegged it @ 3.8 to the usd
http://www.statistics.gov.my/portal/download_journals/files/2004/Volume1/Contents_Article_abdul.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_Negara_Malaysia
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/malaysias-c-bank-reserves-137-100057188.html
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/foreign-exchange-reserves
I find it difficult to see s$1 to rm3.8...
But again, anything can happen... Hhahaha
Don't forget - they have oil.
phantom_opera
29-08-13, 22:32
their only hope now is to work with Singapore
MALAYSIA: The proposed high-speed rail linking Kuala Lumpur to Singapore will not be built along the existing North-South highway in peninsula Malaysia, said the head of the country's Land Public Transport Commission, Syed Hamid Albar.
Mr Syed Hamid said the high-speed rail is expected to pass through Nusajaya in Johor state before crossing the straits into Singapore.
Speaking to Channel NewsAsia, he disclosed that technical teams from both sides are now ironing out details, including the modality and cost structure.
He said: "There are two parts. One part is the cost of building up to Singapore, how much is the the Singapore portion, the other part is on operating. Our Prime Minister has talked about whether Singapore is interested in an operating company for the high-speed rail, as even though coming into Singapore, the distance is very short it's very costly."
The pricing of tickets, said Mr Syed Hamid, will be market-driven and affordable, and probably benchmarked against the average economy airline ticket.
So far, several consortiums have shown interest in bidding for the multi-billion dollar project. They include MMC Gamuda, UEM and YTL Corporation.
phantom_opera
29-08-13, 22:32
So most likely will enter through Tuas
and Kenobi-wan said station most likely at the East or West part of Singapore
West will huat!
So most likely will enter through Tuas
and Kenobi-wan said station most likely at the East or West part of Singapore
We will have more details next month when the ministers from both sides meet.
their only hope now is to work with Singapore
MALAYSIA: The proposed high-speed rail linking Kuala Lumpur to Singapore will not be built along the existing North-South highway in peninsula Malaysia, said the head of the country's Land Public Transport Commission, Syed Hamid Albar.
Mr Syed Hamid said the high-speed rail is expected to pass through Nusajaya in Johor state before crossing the straits into Singapore.
Speaking to Channel NewsAsia, he disclosed that technical teams from both sides are now ironing out details, including the modality and cost structure.
He said: "There are two parts. One part is the cost of building up to Singapore, how much is the the Singapore portion, the other part is on operating. Our Prime Minister has talked about whether Singapore is interested in an operating company for the high-speed rail, as even though coming into Singapore, the distance is very short it's very costly."
The pricing of tickets, said Mr Syed Hamid, will be market-driven and affordable, and probably benchmarked against the average economy airline ticket.
So far, several consortiums have shown interest in bidding for the multi-billion dollar project. They include MMC Gamuda, UEM and YTL Corporation.
SG everywhere also huat now.
Lol
Who are you going to sell to? Who are you going to rent to?
Are there so many Sinkies who aspire to retire to JB?
You fall sick there....need emergency medical service....good cardiologist...good surgeon.....it is not easy to get evacuated back to Singapore and you could die before you get back here. Over there, tikam tikam for the quality of the medical specialist. I heard some horror stories of medical specialists there. Their morals...ethics.... :scared-5:
Gleneagles and tmc are opening in jb.
their only hope now is to work with Singapore.
We also hope to have more PR, forrigners, immigrants
Gleneagles and tmc are opening in jb.
Will gleneagles and tmc in jb cannibalise their sg business? Will it be of the same standard?
phantom_opera
08-09-13, 19:00
went to Malaysia Legoland / Bukit Indah, changed at 2.56
wow, restaurantes all 1/2 price of Singapore only for the same quality
mooncakes also very cheap :p
then back to Singapore, Bedok Pt
Killiney Kopitiam kopi auntie now is Filipino, :banghead: :mad:
1SGD now is 2.61 RM :simmering: JB is now superb value for money again
went to Malaysia Legoland / Bukit Indah, changed at 2.56
wow, restaurantes all 1/2 price of Singapore only for the same quality
mooncakes also very cheap :p
then back to Singapore, Bedok Pt
Killiney Kopitiam kopi auntie now is Filipino, :banghead: :mad:
1SGD now is 2.61 RM :simmering: JB is now superb value for money again
S$1 = RM$2.65 coming.
Gleneagles and tmc are opening in jb.
Gleneagles Medini - opening in 2015.
Vantage Bay is still TBC.
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