View Full Version : is it the right time to buy property now or wait
Based on http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/property-cycles/
about 21 quarters there will be another cycle so 2009 means next cycle will be 2015 :) ...
Based on http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/property-cycles/
about 21 quarters there will be another cycle so 2009 means next cycle will be 2015 :) ...
If only property investment is so easy just add and minus between cycles.
There are lots of factor involved, below are just a few.
1. Location
2. Currency
3. QE
4. CM
5. Interest rate
6. Population
7. Infrastructure
8. Economic
and the list go on and on.
Moral of the story, buy within your mean. Anytime is a good time to buy. Profit and lost depends on when you sell.
if u need a place for own stay the answer is obvious.
if u need one for investment, do homework of the vicinity to gauge upside potential and rentability.
TravieJackie
08-07-13, 09:54
For own stay and can afford, just buy lor. That's what we did coz in the long run, we believe the prices will go up. And of course must have holding power and don't go chase after latest expensive projects with the idea of making money in the next few years. If we do make, it's a bonus, if not, its our long term home.
For own stay and can afford, just buy lor. That's what we did coz in the long run, we believe the prices will go up. And of course must have holding power and don't go chase after latest expensive projects with the idea of making money in the next few years. If we do make, it's a bonus, if not, its our long term home.
the reason why the masses are chasing after new projects is because of the consistent track record of around S$200,000 profits upon new project completion.
However, I think this track record cannot be substained anymore as the threshold of S$250,000 has been breached due to recent market climbs and the additional cooling measures.
as such, I keep insisting that only CCR resales are good buys now. But nobody again wish to listen to my call. Same as in 2008 ( ask them buy OCR ) , 2011-2012 ( Ask them sell OCR ) and now 2013 ( ask them buy CCR ).
as usual, many is going to miss my boat again.
the reason why the masses are chasing after new projects is because of the consistent track record of around S$200,000 profits upon new project completion.
However, I think this track record cannot be substained anymore as the threshold of S$250,000 has been breached due to recent market climbs and the additional cooling measures.
as such, I keep insisting that only CCR resales are good buys now. But nobody again wish to listen to my call. Same as in 2008 ( ask them buy OCR ) , 2011-2012 ( Ask them sell OCR ) and now 2013 ( ask them buy CCR ).
as usual, many is going to miss my boat again.
in actual fact, buying resales CCR under the current coolings measures has the greatest advantage over OCR new projects. As to the actual rationale behind it, I shall reveal it in this forum in due course.
in actual fact, buying resales CCR under the current coolings measures has the greatest advantage over OCR new projects. As to the actual rationale behind it, I shall reveal it in this forum in due course.
there is something else I saw in the global economy that everyone has missed. Well, not everyone, but a few of us are aware that many have missed the vital observation yet again. Like in 2008 just after Lehman crisis, I told u guys go and buy OCR ( especially the West projects like Infiniti and Botannia ) but many ignored me. Exactly one year later , who else but me know it will rebound so fast, market rebounded and the OCR lows was never to be seen again. Now similar things is happening in CCR resales ( Rivergate or Robertson Quay area ).
All the economic idiots are wrong this time again on Global economy.
Nuff said.
Sometimes I wonder why study so much to take a doctorate. I was already reading global economy like a book when I was a Science Student in Victoria School Jalan Baser. I only believe in practical economic policies and global trade patterns. Spare me all the theories which are always the opposite of my celestial prediction.
I study human and policy makers behavior, rather than some bunch of economic theories. Economic theories are always formed on hindsight. The obvious are always being ignored.
Many call me haolian or obnoxious or proud. But, can I help it when everyone is shooting up the wrong tree for the birds?
You can never be rich by making S$200,000 on every property transaction every 4 years. The key is to aim for greater capital gains in the medium to long term. 3 transactions would already take you 12 years. How many 12 years have you got?
It appears to be lucrative when you are earning S$200,000 every 4 years but will be stupidity in the end, if you missed out on the million dollar capital gain with just one single correct property investment.
I ask myself this question same as threadstarter:
When to buy?
The answer is simple: Do not buy when everyone is buying ! BUY only when everyone is fearful.
Simple logic, hard to adhere and implement or take action upon.
Why go for OCR when with just a few hundreds psf more you can get a property in Core Central Region?
They tell you, Singapore is small, can buy those projects near MRTs what.
I ask you one simple question:
Take MRT to CCR must use your time or not?
There are now many CCR property owners like myself looking to consolidate our funds so as to upgrade to Marina Bays ( Those priced at S$5million or more Marina Bay apartments, so certainly out of the reach of many of you here. I will also reveal why we are upgrading in due course in this forum) .
Now is a good time for you to buy these CCR properties from us as these owners will be more open to price negotiation :)
Buy before we change our minds.Good Luck.
Based on http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/property-cycles/
about 21 quarters there will be another cycle so 2009 means next cycle will be 2015 :) ...
Actually I am also hoping price will drop before I buy. But when I saw how my relatives and kins gone to a better place one by one. I feel life is short. I dun want to work till very old then enjoy life. When I notice OCR is closing gap with ccr . I told myself well if for the similar price I can get ccr, this is a good entry point. I did my math if recession happens can I still afford before committing. Until now I enjoy my new place . But of course anything can happen , price may drop or rise. No one know. Just buy within ur means for own stay. Must have buffer to tide any chance of high interest too.
There are now many CCR property owners like myself looking to consolidate our funds so as to upgrade to Marina Bays ( Those priced at S$5million or more apartments, so certainly out of the reach of many of you here. ) .
Now is a good time for you to buy these CCR properties from us as these owners will be more open to price negotiation :)
Buy before we change our minds.Good Luck.
I want to hoot One Marina leh..need to go ask ah long boss if he wants to join me
phantom_opera
08-07-13, 11:17
The twin dragon heads are ascending into 9th heavens:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/07/China%20Resi%20Prices_0.jpg
http://hk.centadata.com/cci/images/ccli_chart.png
Based on http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/property-cycles/
about 21 quarters there will be another cycle so 2009 means next cycle will be 2015 :) ...
Especially those near future mrt and ccr. I feel the upside will be decent.
thomaspaine
08-07-13, 11:46
there is something else I saw in the global economy that everyone has missed. Well, not everyone, but a few of us are aware that many have missed the vital observation yet again. Like in 2008 just after Lehman crisis, I told u guys go and buy OCR ( especially the West projects like Infiniti and Botannia ) but many ignored me. Exactly one year later , who else but me know it will rebound so fast, market rebounded and the OCR lows was never to be seen again. Now similar things is happening in CCR resales ( Rivergate or Robertson Quay area ).
Hi 狮子王
Robertson Quay area (now transacting $1800-2100 psf) - where do you see them 4/5 years from now ?
thanks
Regulators
08-07-13, 11:57
try telling Ringo33 that CCR is the right place to invest and he will throw the JLD plan at u. Some people can be educated, some can't. :D
the reason why the masses are chasing after new projects is because of the consistent track record of around S$200,000 profits upon new project completion.
However, I think this track record cannot be substained anymore as the threshold of S$250,000 has been breached due to recent market climbs and the additional cooling measures.
as such, I keep insisting that only CCR resales are good buys now. But nobody again wish to listen to my call. Same as in 2008 ( ask them buy OCR ) , 2011-2012 ( Ask them sell OCR ) and now 2013 ( ask them buy CCR ).
as usual, many is going to miss my boat again.
try telling Ringo33 that CCR is the right place to invest and he will throw the JLD plan at u. Some people can be educated, some can't. :D
Perhaps someone needs to be educated that not all CCR properties are the same. Just like if you wear Armani that doesnt mean you look like the model in the magazine.
those CCR property you recommended are damn lousy loh.
e.g. Waterford Residence (next to temple), MK88, lousy capital appreciation and rental yield.
There are now many CCR property owners like myself looking to consolidate our funds so as to upgrade to Marina Bays ( Those priced at S$5million or more Marina Bay apartments, so certainly out of the reach of many of you here. I will also reveal why we are upgrading in due course in this forum) .
Now is a good time for you to buy these CCR properties from us as these owners will be more open to price negotiation :)
Buy before we change our minds.Good Luck.
Master, this is the first time i saw you make such a lame advertisement.
Those who can afford 3M or 4M to buy your big quantaum properties in CCR will go straight to marina bay. Why do they bother to buy something you want to unload instead of going for the one you want to upload?
Besides, if you really want to upload Marina Bay, will you shout so loudly before you have already bought it in a lower price?
Master, this is the first time i saw you make such a lame advertisement.
Those who can afford 3M or 4M to buy your big quantaum properties in CCR will go straight to marina bay. Why do they bother to buy something you want to unload instead of going for the one you want to upload?
Besides, if you really want to upload Marina Bay, will you shout so loudly before you have already bought it in a lower price?
my target audience is the young upper middle class thinking of buying new OCR units. they can now consider the smaller CCR freehold units for almost the same psf la. My target is NOT those in the same bracket as me, as you rightfully pointed out mah.
further, I am unloading smaller CCR units with quantum lesser than 2.5M mah...so that I can consolidate them and buy one single Marina Bay unit.
as for the Marina Bay uploading, I am not targeting at those present projects la. I am targeting at the yet to be launch ones.
Regulators
08-07-13, 13:31
So j gateway is likened to a pig with lipstick n Armani dress? :D
Perhaps someone needs to be educated that not all CCR properties are the same. Just like if you wear Armani that doesnt mean you look like the model in the magazine.
Both brothers Ringo33 and Regulators have made very good point. CCR is a good place to invest as brother Regulators pointed out, but then again, NOT all CCR are the same as reminded by brother Ringo33.
That is why I pointed out to aim at places with a "theme" like along Singapore River, the "theme" is riverside luxurious living mah. This area is currently still undervalued.
the young affluent are very well travelled. Whether they are home owners or expat living here. Sooner or later, you will get this group of "riverside living" demand here from this group of middle class professionals.
Regulators
08-07-13, 13:42
What about those walking distance to robertson quay? I believe strongly that prices not moving past few years cannot be used to represent ccr market in future which was what ringo33 was trying to show. I can't agree with him on that.
Both brothers Ringo33 and Regulators have made very good point. CCR is a good place to invest as brother Regulators pointed out, but then again, NOT all CCR are the same as reminded by brother Ringo33.
That is why I pointed out to aim at places with a "theme" like along Singapore River, the "theme" is riverside luxurious living mah. This area is currently still undervalued.
Of course , currently many are stopped in their tracks by the Cooling Measures. But if I remembered correctly, the loan frameworks is permanent, BUT cannot say the same for the cooling measures. Correct me if I have understood the news wrongly.
What about those walking distance to robertson quay? I believe strongly that prices not moving past few years cannot be used to represent ccr market in future which was what ringo33 was trying to show. I can't agree with him on that.
you have to understand in Jurong, there are many local Singaporean young buyers who works as salaried professionals. This group very alert and savy in investing, that is why the prices there is pressing near to S$1800psf now.
In CCR, and for example Orchard Cairnhill area, you get many OLD upper class Indonesian owners. This group very slow to react to market forces. Most tend to be sleeping beauties or simply depended on property agents to market their properties or get market information. That is why in CCR, you got sudden surge in prices after some period of sleeping beauty.
you have to understand in Jurong, there are many local Singaporean young buyers who works as salaried professionals. This group very alert and savy in investing, that is why the prices there is pressing near to S$1800psf now.
In CCR, and for example Orchard Cairnhill area, you get many OLD upper class Indonesian owners. This group very slow to react to market forces. Most tend to be sleeping beauties or simply depended on property agents to market their properties or get market information. That is why in CCR, you got sudden surge in prices after some period of sleeping beauty.
another reason why the young buyers cheong OCR is because of the reason that they save all the trouble of negotiating with a resales owner. The resales owners some of them spoil markets by being fickle minded. One moment they wanna sell, another moment they changed their mind.
To quote from one young couple to me: " The reason why we chose to buy from developers is over here in the showroom, we can definately get a confirmed unit from the developers. But for resales, some owners can be fickle minded and stubborn- a total waste of our time !"
Regulators
08-07-13, 13:56
Jurong pxs boosted largely by large number of transaction. Certain prime areas see slow movement in prices as transaction pxs r huge. Ccr investors would usually make when there is a huge gain, not the kachang puteh $200k profit. But again that being said, if you have large enough numbers of these kachang puteh profiteering in jurong, it can drive prices up fast. The question now is it has reached a critical px point for j gateway, any further upward movement would cause mkt disequilibrium which i have explained before why upward pressure is great for certain ccr projects.
you have to understand in Jurong, there are many local Singaporean young buyers who works as salaried professionals. This group very alert and savy in investing, that is why the prices there is pressing near to S$1800psf now.
In CCR, and for example Orchard Cairnhill area, you get many OLD upper class Indonesian owners. This group very slow to react to market forces. Most tend to be sleeping beauties or simply depended on property agents to market their properties or get market information. That is why in CCR, you got sudden surge in prices after some period of sleeping beauty.
What about those walking distance to robertson quay? I believe strongly that prices not moving past few years cannot be used to represent ccr market in future which was what ringo33 was trying to show. I can't agree with him on that.
Why not be more specific and tell us that you are referring to Waterford Residence.
I guess you believe strongly that buying the cheapest and lousiest development in CCR will give you the max potential right because its CCR.
Jurong pxs boosted largely by large number of transaction. Certain prime areas see slow movement in prices as transaction pxs r huge. Ccr investors would usually make when there is a huge gain, not the kachang puteh $200k profit. But again that being said, if you have large enough numbers of these kachang puteh profiteering in jurong, it can drive prices up fast. The question now is it has reached a critical px point for j gateway, any further upward movement would cause mkt disequilibrium which i have explained before why upward pressure is great for certain ccr projects.
I agree with you. From my observation, OCR could be maxing out. However, if it really breach the S$1900psf line, CCR will reawakens again and then CCR will be out of reach again ! I certainly hope it happens after the CMs are removed. If not, the momentum if continues like that in Jurong, could cause as you pointed out a value perception disequilibrium.
Why not be more specific and tell us that you are referring to Waterford Residence.
I guess you believe strongly that buying the cheapest and lousiest development in CCR will give you the max potential right because its CCR.
brother Ringo33, waterford not a bad project what. If you look at the height of Urbana, waterford is still value for money mah :)
I agree with you. From my observation, OCR could be maxing out. However, if it really breach the S$1900psf line, CCR will reawakens again and then CCR will be out of reach again ! I certainly hope it happens after the CMs are removed. If not, the momentum if continues like that in Jurong, could cause as you pointed out a value perception disequilibrium.
S$2000psf for OCR is the psychological barrier like in stock market. If broken, I think CCR will wake up with a vengeance.
S$2000psf for OCR is the psychological barrier like in stock market. If broken, I think CCR will wake up with a vengeance.
From my own research and analysis , I never expect OCR to breach the S$1500psf line. But now, market in OCR has proven me that I have underestimated the power of the young middle class.
From my own research and analysis , I never expect OCR to breach the S$1500psf line. But now, market in OCR has proven me that I have underestimated the power of the young middle class.
this group of buyers is very savy. they could cheong CCR anytime if S$2000psf is breached in OCR, from my own human behavioral study.
Regulators
08-07-13, 14:08
Yes u are right. Better agree with u first before ringo33 comes up with his jld being the second cbd shit.
S$2000psf for OCR is the psychological barrier like in stock market. If broken, I think CCR will wake up with a vengeance.
brother Ringo33, waterford not a bad project what. If you look at the height of Urbana, waterford is still value for money mah :)
value of money is relative to what you value.
If you like free vegetarian food, and convenience of seeking blessing everyday, sure Waterford is a good place.
Yes u are right. Better agree with u first before ringo33 comes up with his jld being the second cbd shit.
actually JLD will eventually become the 2nd largest business district in Singapore. why do you have to call it shit?
What about those walking distance to robertson quay? I believe strongly that prices not moving past few years cannot be used to represent ccr market in future which was what ringo33 was trying to show. I can't agree with him on that.
the whole area of River Valley on the Clarke Quay side has very great potential. It is a unique living lifestyle similar to foreign riverside living like in London. Right now, the "theme" is not obvious to many because there has not been many new project launches here due to the low landbanks held in this area by developers. That is why this "unique" theme message is not delivered well to the markets. However, if more developers managed to build newer projects here, the message could be sent across via their advertisement. So far, only CDL has been using this"theme" message. Not even SC global rememebr to use this unique riverside theme for their projects here.
phantom_opera
08-07-13, 16:28
@lionking ... your crazy horses are referring to J Gateway mob, Egyptian rioters or central bankers ;)
@lionking ... your crazy horses are referring to J Gateway mob, Egyptian rioters or central bankers ;)
Dear good brother. The illuminati did not reveal to me what or who the crazy horses are. In due time, it shall become clear what the crazy horses are in my blog :) And of course, I will reveal the answer here in this forum first before my blog as usual :)
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