View Full Version : Does the End of QE Mean the End of the Property Boom?
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/does-end-qe-mean-end-property-boom-152659782.html
Did Gerald Tay missed the boat? Look at this comment:
Perhaps this potential outflow of cheap money may be the start of a time where the poor and middle class ‘steal’ back some of the wealth stolen from them by some selfish Rich. :2cents:
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/does-end-qe-mean-end-property-boom-152659782.html
Did Gerald Tay missed the boat? Look at this comment:
Perhaps this potential outflow of cheap money may be the start of a time where the poor and middle class ‘steal’ back some of the wealth stolen from them by some selfish Rich. :2cents:
America's housing bust in 2009, the rich were relatively unscathed. The billionaires became even richer, however, the middle class were wiped out.
Similarly, the rich in Singapore are cashing out, selling their assets to reits, moving money to booming again markets like USA and Dubai.
phantom_opera
12-06-13, 17:07
quote: poor n middle class "steal back" some money from the rich :rolleyes:
this guy does not know what he is talking about, we are capitalists, not communists lol
quote: poor n middle class "steal back" some money from the rich :rolleyes:
this guy does not know what he is talking about, we are capitalists, not communists lol
he knows la, cheap money due to low interest rates, so the rich who has the means can borrow lots of money at cheap rate, effectively "stealing" from the poor and middle class savers, retirees who park their money in dposits.
so with higher rates, hopefully they get more money from their savings in the bank.
Rentier capitalism is not industrial capitalism. A rentier capitalist is parasitic in nature.
It is this decline in the standards of administration and in the standards of public service that is at the root of economic stagnation. Opportunities for parasitic activities are much more numerous and profitable in emergent countries of today than they were in traditional societies. The modern sector which has been established in most new countries produces a surplus value which the parasites of government prey upon.
- Goh Keng Swee
Long long tome ago, there was two little Island. We call it Island S and Island M.
M have all the natural resource and S need to buy water from M.
Guess whose property is more expensive and why.
Long long time ago the Island S build cheap housing for it people by using his people money. S become rich and like to give back the money but afraid the people become lazy. So S build lot of infrastructure hoping the people understand what S is doing. Not many understand and most MTB. S have not choice but to build more cheap housing for the people but than after 4 yrs, S tell them he cannot carry on building after he build 200,000 unit.
America's housing bust in 2009, the rich were relatively unscathed. The billionaires became even richer, however, the middle class were wiped out.
Similarly, the rich in Singapore are cashing out, selling their assets to reits, moving money to booming again markets like USA and Dubai.
Its not that the rich were relatively unscathed. Alot of them were hit bad. BUT QE bailed out the rich. And made them even richer. The rich were the ones holdings on to large amount of shares and multiple properties. QE re inflated all these assets. The people who pay? You ordinary folks on the street. Thats why the income class divide is wider now than ever in the States. QE is the reason.
recessions are actually the times that narrow the divide, but the choice of word in "steal back" seems to suggest a certain degree of jealousy on the author's part.
There isn't a hike in interest rate or a pull back in QE. Its just ben bernake's way to spook out the markets outside US to shake the money tree. Its the shortist job to harvest the money tree after the fed build up the expectation. Does anyone really think that the sunset developed world economy is going to perform trick without stimulus?. So u really think that foreign money leaving Jakarta for good and won't come back? The money will come back in even bigger waves.
There isn't a hike in interest rate or a pull back in QE. Its just ben bernake's way to spook out the markets outside US to shake the money tree. Its the shortist job to harvest the money tree after the fed build up the expectation. Does anyone really think that the sunset developed world economy is going to perform trick without stimulus?. So u really think that foreign money leaving Jakarta for good and won't come back? The money will come back in even bigger waves.
people actually buy the idea that going cash will help combat inflation of 5%? heh.
Its not that the rich were relatively unscathed. Alot of them were hit bad. BUT QE bailed out the rich. And made them even richer. The rich were the ones holdings on to large amount of shares and multiple properties. QE re inflated all these assets. The people who pay? You ordinary folks on the street. Thats why the income class divide is wider now than ever in the States. QE is the reason.
The property market in the US is starting to rise. The effect will trickle down as it has happened to Singapore and china the last few years. Hence, It is time to withdraw the QE.
QE can't go on forever, gold is telling you this. Soros warned that interest rates will rise early this year. Anyone wants to bet against the king of speculators?
The property market in the US is starting to rise. The effect will trickle down as it has happened to Singapore and china the last few years. Hence, It is time to withdraw the QE.
QE can't go on forever, gold is telling you this. Soros warned that interest rates will rise early this year. Anyone wants to bet against the king of speculators?
QE is a very powerful medicine to cure a terminal economy disease. If u believe that US economy can be easily brought to live simply by printing money, then every country on earth can do the same. If it doesn't work in Japan, then it doesn't work in US too. This tale hasn't reach the chapter where the words "happily ever after" is written yet.
Let us face it... Interest Rate is going up... That one you don't need an expert to tell you that... That is almost a 101% sure fact.. I feel it is not point arguing about this. The question is when and are you prepared for it. What happen in the past will happen again now.... Surprising people don't learn from history... Sub-prime just past us so recently and Singapore alone have a few property crash in our brief history. So fast people are saying that property price will not crash down and forget what actually happen.... Now I just hope the government have done enough to prevent the crash as we all have property..
Let us face it... Interest Rate is going up... That one you don't need an expert to tell you that... That is almost a 101% sure fact.. I feel it is not point arguing about this. The question is when and are you prepared for it. What happen in the past will happen again now.... Surprising people don't learn from history... Sub-prime just past us so recently and Singapore alone have a few property crash in our brief history. So fast people are saying that property price will not crash down and forget what actually happen.... Now I just hope the government have done enough to prevent the crash as we all have property..
My point is, developed world economy is not recovering that easily. Not in our generation. The threat of QE tapering is just a way to show that the FED is in control and we should expect inflationary pressure in the US. I am afraid that once people believe that it is safe to hold cash again, they will start to get burned.
Let us face it... Interest Rate is going up... That one you don't need an expert to tell you that... That is almost a 101% sure fact.. I feel it is not point arguing about this. The question is when and are you prepared for it. What happen in the past will happen again now.... Surprising people don't learn from history... Sub-prime just past us so recently and Singapore alone have a few property crash in our brief history. So fast people are saying that property price will not crash down and forget what actually happen.... Now I just hope the government have done enough to prevent the crash as we all have property..
The problem right now is the kiasu cum gambling mentality. People don't want to lose out on the chance of a gain if the market continues to rise and lose money to "inflation".
Stock analysts believe that QE won't be pared back until the end of this year. Now is only June, so from June to December, there is still 6 months to go.
For stocks, yes, you can afford to play until the end. Press the sell button on the 31st December 2013, 1655hrs. But for property, can go online and press the "sell" button?
My opinion is that this is a high risk game. Just like gold, the defacto hedge against "inflation" since the time of Qin Shihuang and the Roman empire, once the bubble bursts, the price can drop 15-20% within months. When that happens, there will be margin calls - loan top up and panic selling will ensue, causing another 10-15% drop. Unlike gold, you can't sell property easily in a collapsing market because no buyer wants to catch a falling knife.
The problem right now is the kiasu cum gambling mentality. People don't want to lose out on the chance of a gain if the market continues to rise and lose money to "inflation".
Stock analysts believe that QE won't be pared back until the end of this year. Now is only June, so from June to December, there is still 6 months to go.
For stocks, yes, you can afford to play until the end. Press the sell button on the 31st December 2013, 1655hrs. But for property, can go online and press the "sell" button?
My opinion is that this is a high risk game. Just like gold, the defacto hedge against "inflation" since the time of Qin Shihuang and the Roman empire, once the bubble bursts, the price can drop 15-20% within months. When that happens, there will be margin calls - loan top up and panic selling will ensue, causing another 10-15% drop. Unlike gold, you can't sell property easily in a collapsing market because no buyer wants to catch a falling knife.
If what u said is true, then there is still time to sell your property. Are u selling now? I know I am not.
the world economy is in uncharted territories. and for the record, i don't think we will witness an exact repeat of the sub-prime crisis. for obvious reasons, unless the banks start their BS of selling risky, adulterated derivative products.
my personal take is that all these QEs have pushed costs/prices, not only property, up to an entirely different plateau. how easily can central banks mop up the excessive amount of cash floating in the system is to be seen? even if they manage to funnel out some of the slush, the new plateau would serve as a broad support.
coming back to local context, if property prices crash 15%, how many bros here will chiong and snap them up? if there are buyers, it will bring prices to an equilibrium quickly - i.e. no freefall
the world economy is in uncharted territories. and for the record, i don't think we will witness an exact repeat of the sub-prime crisis. for obvious reasons, unless the banks start their BS of selling risky, adulterated derivative products.
my personal take is that all these QEs have pushed costs/prices, not only property, up to an entirely different plateau. how easily can central banks mop up the excessive amount of cash floating in the system is to be seen? even if they manage to funnel out some of the slush, the new plateau would serve as a broad support.
coming back to local context, if property prices crash 15%, how many bros here will chiong and snap them up? if there are buyers, it will bring prices to an equilibrium quickly - i.e. no freefall
The smart money won't buy even if prices "crash" 15%. Because the SGD will also be crashing.
It's better to bet on overseas US real estate or related stocks and gain on both currency appreciation and asset appreciation.
The smart money won't buy even if prices "crash" 15%. Because the SGD will also be crashing.
It's better to bet on overseas US real estate or related stocks and gain on both currency appreciation and asset appreciation.
how sure are you that there won't be buyers if prices dip by 15%? if the market can keep buying (and buying and buying) in spite of continous price hikes, what makes us so sure that there won't be people buying?
as for SGD crashing, this is complicated and dependent on such much external variants. let's not try to justify our hypothesis from 'crystalball' observations.
as for betting on overseas real estate, i don't think it really depends on QE tapering off and hence, shall refrain on an off-tangent discussion
The smart money won't buy even if prices "crash" 15%. Because the SGD will also be crashing.
It's better to bet on overseas US real estate or related stocks and gain on both currency appreciation and asset appreciation.
if prices crash 15% of current prices, the 1st u will see mermaid crashing in for another ppty :scared-2:
Hi...I will come in for Mt Sinai.
So, Let there be a crash!
how sure are you that there won't be buyers if prices dip by 15%? if the market can keep buying (and buying and buying) in spite of continous price hikes, what makes us so sure that there won't be people buying?
as for SGD crashing, this is complicated and dependent on such much external variants. let's not try to justify our hypothesis from 'crystalball' observations.
as for betting on overseas real estate, i don't think it really depends on QE tapering off and hence, shall refrain on an off-tangent discussion
I'm referring to smart money, international investors, hedge funds.
SGD crashing is nothing unusual. It's part of the QE cycle. Every time US prints money, SGD and AUD will rise. When US stops QE, the opposite will happen.
Since AUD already started to crash, SGD will follow after a few months.
Law of physics, what goes up will eventually come down. Only question is "when".
I'm referring to smart money, international investors, hedge funds.
SGD crashing is nothing unusual. It's part of the QE cycle. Every time US prints money, SGD and AUD will rise. When US stops QE, the opposite will happen.
Since AUD already started to crash, SGD will follow after a few months.
Law of physics, what goes up will eventually come down. Only question is "when".
no one is quibbling whether there will be ups and downs in forex.
AUD is entirely different, QE is still here and it has dipped. there are different dynamics at play here.
why don't i postulate this scenario? SGD dips, SG economy picks up significantly since it's a net exporter, economy turns good, property prices rise.
no one is quibbling whether there will be ups and downs in forex.
AUD is entirely different, QE is still here and it has dipped. there are different dynamics at play here.
why don't i postulate this scenario? SGD dips, SG economy picks up significantly since it's a net exporter, economy turns good, property prices rise.
During 1997-8 recession, many housing agents, developers and speculators had to jump, even though Singapore manufacturing was doing ok.
If the property bubble bursts, the deflationary effect and falling SGD will definitely benefit manufacturing, but then, nowadays, how many Singaporeans work as shift engineer or factory worker?
Even then, how many of them can afford condo? Not many. Besides, manufacturing is hard earned money, most won't spend on luxury housing even if they have the capacity to do so.
thomastansb
13-06-13, 14:00
Property goes up and down. Nothing special about this cycle. Just a matter of time.
In all crisis till date, when it is at its bottom, most people won't buy.
In all bull market till date, when it is at its highest, most people say won't drop.
I have been through 3 cycles, every cycle is the same.
Everything will fall in neatly in sync.
Rule of the game stays - those who over committed have gambled and as with all gambling, most of the times, you lose. Banker takes all.
It's all pretty unfair of course. Sell, SSD, buy BSD and ABSD.
Sg is a country with a supernatural ability to replenish its population at will. It can increase or decrease. It can select the brightest and the wealthiest among the world population to stay. This is the top of the world. I believe the property price is still cheap. US is falling apart on its own accord. The recent spy scandal show how divided US as a nation. Don't count too much that US can rise up from the economic slump.
Hi...I will come in for Mt Sinai.
So, Let there be a crash!
50K not enough to paid the deposit even there is 20% drop from current market price even if there is really a crash......:banghead: :banghead: :banghead: !!!
The process of modifying competition to serve particular ends is therefore fraught with danger. At best, it can produce entrepreneurs of a lesser caliber who can survive only within the protected walls of state regulations. At worst, it would lead to the creation not of an entrepreneur class but of a rentier class whose contributions to the management of business are nominal and whose role in affairs depends on the possession of special privileges. In such situations much activity will consist not of entrepreneurship but of spivvery.
- Goh Keng Swee
Singapore has strayed, in GKS words, from "the improvement of standards of living for everybody in the rural areas rather than to try, by artificial means, to contrive prosperity for a few."
Rentier activities dominate Singapore now at the expense of entrepreneurship.
phantom_opera
13-06-13, 17:17
Singapore has strayed, in GKS words, from "the improvement of standards of living for everybody in the rural areas rather than to try, by artificial means, to contrive prosperity for a few."
Rentier activities dominate Singapore now at the expense of entrepreneurship.
China is even worse, would outside BJ 4th ring pricing of 1900psf with half the rental of Singapore make sense?
GKS england then powderful.
this is one of the very rare occasions i have to check the definition a word ("spivvery") used in condosingapore.
phantom_opera
13-06-13, 17:46
Well Deng Xiao Ping then strategy was to make a few people rich first ... without that ... China will be still 3rd world .. so what is wrong of "contrive prosperity for a few"
Capitalism is the only system that works in last 100y ... what to do?? Singapore capitalism is already managed ... otherwise u will see 60y LH selling at 2000psf
China is even worse, would outside BJ 4th ring pricing of 1900psf with half the rental of Singapore make sense?
Do you have parents that save their entire life to buy u a house? If singapore have this type of parents, then our property price will go higher.. And for them, they are really not enough homes for the huge population in BJ
phantom_opera
13-06-13, 17:51
Do you have parents that save their entire life to buy u a house? If singapore have this type of parents, then our property price will go higher.. And for them, they are really not enough homes for the huge population in BJ
BJ has no public housing, SG does .... I really need to give credit to PAP on the excellent execution of HDBs ... of course public housing will be really hard to execute in a huge political hierarchy like China
The beauty is HDBs are protected from foreigners and regular upgrades ensure that they do not become slums
Property goes up and down. Nothing special about this cycle. Just a matter of time.
In all crisis till date, when it is at its bottom, most people won't buy.
In all bull market till date, when it is at its highest, most people say won't drop.
I have been through 3 cycles, every cycle is the same.
Wow ... u so snr (in age)? Good to learn fr snr & experienced pp :ashamed1:
proud owner
14-06-13, 13:30
Sg is a country with a supernatural ability to replenish its population at will. It can increase or decrease. It can select the brightest and the wealthiest among the world population to stay. This is the top of the world. I believe the property price is still cheap. US is falling apart on its own accord. The recent spy scandal show how divided US as a nation. Don't count too much that US can rise up from the economic slump.
something out of this context .....
is it correct to say Rise up ? Drop down ?
is it not understandable that Rise will be up and Drop will be down ?
can any English expert care to comment ?
something out of this context .....
is it correct to say Rise up ? Drop down ?
is it not understandable that Rise will be up and Drop will be down ?
can any English expert care to comment ?
http://maryloveslife.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/keep-calm-and-rise-up.png
phantom_opera
14-06-13, 16:01
one danger about the NSA big brother is if foreign governments may lose confidence in NASDAQ companies .. there is already rumour that Hong Kong government is swapping out security software from US giants like CA/Novell/IBM ...:doh:
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