View Full Version : Will there be an over supply in 3 years time?
Forummers....
Buyer insatiable appetite for new condos are quite scary...
Do you think there will be empty condos in 3 years time?
Since all of us now have a place to stay, who will stay in these newly completed condos?
Iskandar is even more scary.
Forummers....
Buyer insatiable appetite for new condos are quite scary...
Do you think there will be empty condos in 3 years time?
Since all of us now have a place to stay, who will stay in these newly completed condos?
6.9million
6.9million
all those vested will have to agree. see which group is larger. seems like the snowball is becoming larger and larger.
Only smarties have the answer!
shouldn't this question be asked 10 more years ago? at that time, more than 80% families own property liao.
thomaspaine
31-05-13, 23:58
Forummers....
Buyer insatiable appetite for new condos are quite scary...
Do you think there will be empty condos in 3 years time?
Since all of us now have a place to stay, who will stay in these newly completed condos?
When I started work 20y ago , my boss was a big property bear n this was the same rationale that he would repeated warn us about.
We would frequently hear his usual rhetoric about the many new apartments springing up n how the market can find enough buyers.
When I started work 20y ago , my boss was a big property bear n this was the same rationale that he would repeated warn us about.
We would frequently hear his usual rhetoric about the many new apartments springing up n how the market can find enough buyers.
They forget to count that the population increases by 100,000 every year. All fully grown adults directly imported.
Since 20 years ago, this has been the case.
Where will they stay?
Those who knows me, know that i am fully vested...
But looking at 16k condos springing up each year for the last 3 years is quite scary....
and the buyers are all buying new homes.... not completed yet... if they are buying completed units i am ok. but new units means another 50k units coming up in 2015....
where to find 150k people to stay?
this is a similar question i am trying to get my head around.
The exact number of homes built is 197,559, to be completed over 4 years from 2013-2016.
2013 is the last year of low supply, merely 30,000 units in total, before the floodgates are opened from 2014 (50,000 to 60,000 every year till 2016)
http://www.h88.com.sg/article/Khaw+Boon+Wan%3A+197,559+new+homes+coming+by+2016/
While the numbers seem huge, scrutinising the numbers above carefully, you will find that the bulk is actually public housing, mainly BTOs in which the Govt builds only when there is a certain level of demand. The areas in which demand is questionable are the ECs and Private, which represent about 20,000 annually.
If one wishes to capture the overall total possible demand, he should look through the stats below:
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistics/latest_data.html
In particular, note the changes in marriage rates and divorce rates, and ponder their implications on the overall demand for housing. Some other stats worth considering are the resident population structure (not indicative of total workforce). Still other issues that are useful will be to consider the number of people that will come in annually to make the population grow to 6.9 million in 2030. On average, that's 100,000 every year. Maybe some years more, some years less. We cannot run away from the inevitable. Based on the data sets, we expect more influx from 2014 onwards. Will that happen? Let's wait and see.
Lastly, we would have to consider the total number of units being enbloc-ed or under SERS. Unfortunately, the data is not very well documented here, but some indications are provided below and you can refer to the en-bloc section of the forum to gauge how many units are taken off market. Unfortunately, we are not totally sure how the total number of units to be built is computed, so we can't be very sure whether it considers the en-bloc or SERS proportion.
http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10329p.nsf/w/eSERSInProgress?OpenDocument
In conclusion, I have full trust in the capabilities of MND (especially under Mr Khaw) to match supply and demand closely. 2015-2016 are the years for GE, so something will come up from now till then to make everybody (owners and non-owners happy). Just what is it? If I knew, I will probably have qualified to buy two units of $10-million condos for my children!
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2013/5/35893/2-condo-units-at-corals-sold-for-over-10m-each
starrynight
01-06-13, 10:18
Thanks for the well thought out views. 1 question to help me understand - these numbers we see, are they based on the "theoretical" expected TOP, or the realistic one (which is often almost 1 year earlier)? If the latter, then the deluge is more likely in 2014 than 2015?
The exact number of homes built is 197,559, to be completed over 4 years from 2013-2016.
2013 is the last year of low supply, merely 30,000 units in total, before the floodgates are opened from 2014 (50,000 to 60,000 every year till 2016)
http://www.h88.com.sg/article/Khaw+Boon+Wan%3A+197,559+new+homes+coming+by+2016/
While the numbers seem huge, scrutinising the numbers above carefully, you will find that the bulk is actually public housing, mainly BTOs in which the Govt builds only when there is a certain level of demand. The areas in which demand is questionable are the ECs and Private, which represent about 20,000 annually.
If one wishes to capture the overall total possible demand, he should look through the stats below:
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistics/latest_data.html
In particular, note the changes in marriage rates and divorce rates, and ponder their implications on the overall demand for housing. Some other stats worth considering are the resident population structure (not indicative of total workforce). Still other issues that are useful will be to consider the number of people that will come in annually to make the population grow to 6.9 million in 2030. On average, that's 100,000 every year. Maybe some years more, some years less. We cannot run away from the inevitable. Based on the data sets, we expect more influx from 2014 onwards. Will that happen? Let's wait and see.
Lastly, we would have to consider the total number of units being enbloc-ed or under SERS. Unfortunately, the data is not very well documented here, but some indications are provided below and you can refer to the en-bloc section of the forum to gauge how many units are taken off market. Unfortunately, we are not totally sure how the total number of units to be built is computed, so we can't be very sure whether it considers the en-bloc or SERS proportion.
http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10329p.nsf/w/eSERSInProgress?OpenDocument
In conclusion, I have full trust in the capabilities of MND (especially under Mr Khaw) to match supply and demand closely. 2015-2016 are the years for GE, so something will come up from now till then to make everybody (owners and non-owners happy). Just what is it? If I knew, I will probably have qualified to buy two units of $10-million condos for my children!
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2013/5/35893/2-condo-units-at-corals-sold-for-over-10m-each
Don't think so much. It all boils down to whether developers want to sell you cheap when their balance sheet has insanely amt of cash. >50% chance we are nowhere near the peak or signs of trouble. KBW may have his soft landing, too much to lose if he can't do it.
Thanks for the well thought out views. 1 question to help me understand - these numbers we see, are they based on the "theoretical" expected TOP, or the realistic one (which is often almost 1 year earlier)? If the latter, then the deluge is more likely in 2014 than 2015?
Developers must submit the estimated TOP on a quarterly (I think) basis to URA.
The question of over supply has been answered by the government. The magic number is 6.9.
From my Office Boy perspective, what I can see is a gradual increase in the number of expats in my office ... Not to mention other offices around my buildings where new MNCs are being brought in every now and then.
If we want to talk about over supply, actually, the over supply situation is supposed to be NOW! in the run up of the 2007-2008, there have been a lot of speculation that there will be super over supply by 2013 and now what happens ?
There are many people sold their every thing including their home and renting out there in the market. These are demand waiting at the sidelines and they are slowly but certainly buying into the market when they do not see any significant drop in the next 6 months. The CMs have delayed their decisions for a while hoping for a big drop then they profit from other people. But sad (to them) to say, it has continued to rise.
This has created a lot of anxiety - like what Mr Quek says - if you dont buy today, you must be prepared to pay more tomorrow!
DKSG
starrynight
01-06-13, 11:36
Thanks! I guess there is a change in the type of foreigners they are bringing in then.
Cos what I hear recently from ex colleagues in an IT company (take with a pinch of salt) are:
a. some non-PR foreigners who hold the various types of work visas are "downgraded" by 1 level of work visa when they renew; for some of them, their spouses can no longer work in Singapore as a result of the "downgrade"
b. former PRs who leave Singapore have had their work visa applications rejected, and told in not so many words not to bother appealing
Developers must submit the estimated TOP on a quarterly (I think) basis to URA.
The question of over supply has been answered by the government. The magic number is 6.9.
From my Office Boy perspective, what I can see is a gradual increase in the number of expats in my office ... Not to mention other offices around my buildings where new MNCs are being brought in every now and then.
If we want to talk about over supply, actually, the over supply situation is supposed to be NOW! in the run up of the 2007-2008, there have been a lot of speculation that there will be super over supply by 2013 and now what happens ?
There are many people sold their every thing including their home and renting out there in the market. These are demand waiting at the sidelines and they are slowly but certainly buying into the market when they do not see any significant drop in the next 6 months. The CMs have delayed their decisions for a while hoping for a big drop then they profit from other people. But sad (to them) to say, it has continued to rise.
This has created a lot of anxiety - like what Mr Quek says - if you dont buy today, you must be prepared to pay more tomorrow!
DKSG
Developers must submit the estimated TOP on a quarterly (I think) basis to URA.
The question of over supply has been answered by the government. The magic number is 6.9.
From my Office Boy perspective, what I can see is a gradual increase in the number of expats in my office ... Not to mention other offices around my buildings where new MNCs are being brought in every now and then.
If we want to talk about over supply, actually, the over supply situation is supposed to be NOW! in the run up of the 2007-2008, there have been a lot of speculation that there will be super over supply by 2013 and now what happens ?
There are many people sold their every thing including their home and renting out there in the market. These are demand waiting at the sidelines and they are slowly but certainly buying into the market when they do not see any significant drop in the next 6 months. The CMs have delayed their decisions for a while hoping for a big drop then they profit from other people. But sad (to them) to say, it has continued to rise.
This has created a lot of anxiety - like what Mr Quek says - if you dont buy today, you must be prepared to pay more tomorrow!
DKSG
I don't fully subscribe to the view that it will keep going up though. Household incomes are not increasing that fast, even for expats. There is a strong price support that is also sensitive to changes in interest rates. People are willing to buy, but when it hits their abilities to buy, the story might change.
Thanks! I guess there is a change in the type of foreigners they are bringing in then.
Cos what I hear recently from ex colleagues in an IT company (take with a pinch of salt) are:
a. some non-PR foreigners who hold the various types of work visas are "downgraded" by 1 level of work visa when they renew; for some of them, their spouses can no longer work in Singapore as a result of the "downgrade"
b. former PRs who leave Singapore have had their work visa applications rejected, and told in not so many words not to bother appealing
Yes! Thanks for bringing this up. Just a clarifications that when my office says expat, it means monthly pay of no less than 20K Euros. We dont bring in anyone lesser than that unless it is an exceptional case.
Singapore is slowly trying to get rid of those HDB renters kinda of foreigners. HDB rentals should slow down in the near future.
This will help those HDB folks who say they must rent out to foreigners to help ease the rental market, now they can have the whole unit to themselves!
DKSG
Thanks! I guess there is a change in the type of foreigners they are bringing in then.
Cos what I hear recently from ex colleagues in an IT company (take with a pinch of salt) are:
a. some non-PR foreigners who hold the various types of work visas are "downgraded" by 1 level of work visa when they renew; for some of them, their spouses can no longer work in Singapore as a result of the "downgrade"
b. former PRs who leave Singapore have had their work visa applications rejected, and told in not so many words not to bother appealing
We are going for the increasingly higher calibre workers who command more to grow the economy. So it's likely the ones you were referring to are the ones that were being phased out.
I don't fully subscribe to the view that it will keep going up though. Household incomes are not increasing that fast, even for expats. There is a strong price support that is also sensitive to changes in interest rates. People are willing to buy, but when it hits their abilities to buy, the story might change.
I mentioned this in another post.
The Hard Truth is, household income IS increasing at a very good rate - if you consider the "new" citizens/PRs - the PRCs and the Indians. Only the local's pay is not catching up.
And as a result, certain classes of locals are now "downgraded". In the past, if people are in the class of $8K-$10K. Maybe they belong to the entry level PC class. But now with more and more household earning more than $20K, this group sudden becomes "PC not eligible".
This is a Hard Truth of of immigration policy which not many people can understand. So they can only wonder why our property prices keep going up but our pay seems like the same!
Also, in the last 5 years, there are many people like those in this forum, whose income (property) has shot up significantly and thus becomes the new rich! Office Boy also managed to upgrade from RCR to CCR thanks to those rich US citizens who bought my previous apartment at record price !
DKSG
In conclusion, I have full trust in the capabilities of MND (especially under Mr Khaw) to match supply and demand closely. 2015-2016 are the years for GE, so something will come up from now till then to make everybody (owners and non-owners happy). Just what is it? If I knew, I will probably have qualified to buy two units of $10-million condos for my children!
supply is easy to quantify and control, it is the demand side that MND usually have problem to predict and control.
I mentioned this in another post.
The Hard Truth is, household income IS increasing at a very good rate - if you consider the "new" citizens/PRs - the PRCs and the Indians. Only the local's pay is not catching up.
And as a result, certain classes of locals are now "downgraded". In the past, if people are in the class of $8K-$10K. Maybe they belong to the entry level PC class. But now with more and more household earning more than $20K, this group sudden becomes "PC not eligible".
This is a Hard Truth of of immigration policy which not many people can understand. So they can only wonder why our property prices keep going up but our pay seems like the same!
Also, in the last 5 years, there are many people like those in this forum, whose income (property) has shot up significantly and thus becomes the new rich! Office Boy also managed to upgrade from RCR to CCR thanks to those rich US citizens who bought my previous apartment at record price !
DKSG
There is indeed a lot of liquidity and the game is good now. But really no guarantee the party is going to last forever. Can you guarantee the same pay growth going forward?
In some ways, we can also say that office boy can afford CCR because of the dip in price right? Can anything be guaranteed?
Thanks for all your perspective.... I have my conclusion now!
No Over supply! here's why:
For BTO supply i am not so worried coz MOP will ensure that there are no supply in the market till 2018 earliest so we worry about that later...
For PC supply of 20k per year.... i guess we need to bring in "new residents" not conversion of PR to citizen ah! of at least 60k per year which i think its possible...
And in these past 10 years, our population grew by 1m, let say only 30% is white collar higher income type foreigner.... thats 200k, they will need 50k units of PC to house them?
So I guess there will be no over supply as the 20k unit per year will be used to ease the past shortage and prepare for the influx of at least 40k "new" residents per year?
Fair statement?
Oops! another thought just flew into my mind.... IF there is a shortage these past 10 years then where are are these residents staying at? but we have not been building any PC in big scale.... so where they go stay ah?
OMG another big puzzle....
A lot of them jointly rent a single condo apartment currently. And im talking white collar professionals.
Most if not all have hopes of buying their own pc eventually.
Those that dont intend to, make the money and go home or buy houses in their homelands.
Hi...stock market is in RED zone now. Property market has the time phase lag of 06 months.
Please thread with cautious in property. Crash is imminent.
Hi...stock market is in RED zone now. Property market has the time phase lag of 06 months.
Please thread with cautious in property. Crash is imminent.
There you go again Mr Yowetan. You talk like an expert but on the other hand you have fantasy of housing 9 pax in a 2 bedder condo which you can never afford even if it falls. You need Trizon to fall by s$1m. Will stock crash bring you the s$1m !?!?
Before you give irresponsible statement, pls back it up with data. Don't expect others to feed you with info and data. Don't be lazy.
There you go again Mr Yowetan. You talk like an expert but on the other hand you have fantasy of housing 9 pax in a 2 bedder condo which you can never afford even if it falls. You need Trizon to fall by s$1m. Will stock crash bring you the s$1m !?!?
Before you give irresponsible statement, pls back it up with data. Don't expect others to feed you with info and data. Don't be lazy.
Hi...I think it is possible for Trizon to be corrected to 1mil SGD approximately from 1.8mil SGD at the moment.
It has been three days in a row of correction in global stock markets. I would expect more to come next week.
I am pretty relax these days in back office as none of my clients are buying shares.
In terms of numbers, there shouldn't be much concern.... MND is doing OT to get the numbers right, from BTO to land parcel sales, all is within control and calculated with probably a view to slight oversupply (read it from the papers last year). This slight oversupply caters not only to eventuality but also to stabilize/reduce the stubborn housing prices that developers are not relenting yet.
If there is a hiccup and the demand suddenly surge for whatever reason, there is still that slight buffer. If on the other hand, demand suddenly falls drastically, they can always open the FT tap big time and explain nicely to our extremely accommodating citizens of the dire need to do that and all is well again.
My biggest concern is the problem created by the other end of the spectrum, aka developers. They are controlling the price game very well, sending out various signals that prices are still strong (heard lots of news from forummers here and seen how prices are holding strongly everywhere by developers). Like what someone mentioned, our kids will have to contend with $1.5mil 4 room HDB and $3mil 3 bedder PC or $5mil 2400sqft landed (leasehold) in the next 20 years. Don't think income will climb that quickly. How to afford? :beats-me-man:
is the glass half empty or half full
http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTtZ0sV-KOTvnrpl1JL-KpntvYtAMdYE2PHMzo0htyUbGLufWwtGg
Intetesting point on the implications of divorces. I have thought about the marriage angle but not from the separation angle.
Hi...I think it is possible for Trizon to be corrected to 1mil SGD approximately from 1.8mil SGD at the moment.
It has been three days in a row of correction in global stock markets. I would expect more to come next week.
I am pretty relax these days in back office as none of my clients are buying shares.
When stock market move from 2,900 points to 3,500 points, how come the property market didnt move up 20% ?
So, only down trend will affect property market ?
Your views are pathetic, childish at best. Reflect on your inability to secure a decent job with a questionable degree. It is also a reason why you are always living in a fantasy.
I can only pray for your parents and in-laws that they will not end up selling tissue paper in hawker centres after you sucked them dry of all their coffin money.
DKSG
phantom_opera
01-06-13, 13:45
There are too many factors, both local and external
DKSG did a good analysis on local factor / hard truth
But remember both Bernanke and Kuroda-san are very happy to ensure u can borrow the max and take advantage of the depositers
Of course Bernanke-san already holding 30% of all 10y UST ... can he continue to buy buy buy up all of them? :tongue3:
As for Kuroda-san ... he is at the mercy of JGB 10y yield + 100 YEN/USD support too ;)
There are too many factors, both local and external
DKSG did a good analysis on local factor / hard truth
But remember both Bernanke and Kuroda-san are very happy to ensure u can borrow the max and take advantage of the depositers
Of course Bernanke-san already holding 30% of all 10y UST ... can he continue to buy buy buy up all of them? :tongue3:
As for Kuroda-san ... he is at the mercy of JGB 10y yield + 100 YEN/USD support too ;)
Phantom's wisdom is admirable!
Office Boy seldom can understand all these. I only know from my office that amongst those foreigners who earn a lot a lot ... many of them want to stay in Singapore. There are foreigners who will pass promotion so that they can stay in Singapore longer to get their citizenship.
Office Boy got the advantage of asking them why they want to do this? They always explain that I cannot understand the attractiveness of Singapore to a foreginer like them coming from their country. The security, education system, vibrancy, etc ...
I also still trying to understand, but I accept the point that many people wants to get rooted in Singapore.
And this number is certainly more than the 6.9 if you consider the PRCs - which my office dont have many la ...
DKSG
phantom_opera
01-06-13, 13:54
Phantom's wisdom is admirable!
Office Boy seldom can understand all these. I only know from my office that amongst those foreigners who earn a lot a lot ... many of them want to stay in Singapore. There are foreigners who will pass promotion so that they can stay in Singapore longer to get their citizenship.
Office Boy got the advantage of asking them why they want to do this? They always explain that I cannot understand the attractiveness of Singapore to a foreginer like them coming from their country. The security, education system, vibrancy, etc ...
I also still trying to understand, but I accept the point that many people wants to get rooted in Singapore.
And this number is certainly more than the 6.9 if you consider the PRCs - which my office dont have many la ...
DKSG
I have Singpaorean friend with family income > 10kpm who said EC 6xxk 2br very expensive (and angry cannot get BTO) ... when ask another friend from China whose SPR application was just rejected... he said "Your EC SO CHEAP !!!!"
I have Singpaorean friend with family income > 10kpm who said EC 6xxk 2br very expensive (and angry cannot get BTO) ... when ask another friend from China whose SPR application was just rejected... he said "Your EC SO CHEAP !!!!"
Rich Chinese Poor Singaporean.:scared-4:
Have to differentiate between discussions of prices (and segment prices) versus the takeup rate or demand matching with supply.
Oversupply is unlikely based on growth trends.
Price growth is a different story. Much as the top segments are dominated by high income earners, there is no guarantee of their long term incomes' sustainability. Moreover, the CMs limits how many properties they can buy. At most they buy for their children, grandchildren etc, but eventually that will be exhausted and I doubt they like to pay ABSDs. Imagine, they have to give Govt 700k for a 10 million apartment, if they are subject to ABSD. Even if they have household monthly income of 30k, they have to give 3 years in ABSD and BSD and another 6 years in 20% deposit to purchase subsequent $10-million properties. Very feasible?
Right now, despite what developers say, we just don't see the sold out situation in SG development. There are good choices still available for first time buyers. And it is going to get better in the next few years.
phantom_opera
01-06-13, 15:28
just make sure u have guni when kelong is over
just make sure u have guni when kelong is over
Thanks! I have more than my fair share of guni. Out of ammo at the moment, but I'm fairly confident my next chance will come again soon.
Those who knows me, know that i am fully vested...
But looking at 16k condos springing up each year for the last 3 years is quite scary....
and the buyers are all buying new homes.... not completed yet... if they are buying completed units i am ok. but new units means another 50k units coming up in 2015....
where to find 150k people to stay?
Among the 50k units, how many are MMs? MM can accommodate only one person, not three, right?
Phantom's wisdom is admirable!
Office Boy seldom can understand all these. I only know from my office that amongst those foreigners who earn a lot a lot ... many of them want to stay in Singapore. There are foreigners who will pass promotion so that they can stay in Singapore longer to get their citizenship.
Office Boy got the advantage of asking them why they want to do this? They always explain that I cannot understand the attractiveness of Singapore to a foreginer like them coming from their country. The security, education system, vibrancy, etc ...
I also still trying to understand, but I accept the point that many people wants to get rooted in Singapore.
And this number is certainly more than the 6.9 if you consider the PRCs - which my office dont have many la ...
DKSG
I think they cannot find job in their native country ba... Look at the unemployment in europe and usa.... All cannot find job then come here... I hahaha...
Among the 50k units, how many are MMs? MM can accommodate only one person, not three, right?
Might be possible. Don t forget nowadays for reasons beyond me, there re actually quite a number of young couples who don t mind staying in MMs. Maybe die die want condo as their first property.
10 years ago u ask people buy condo they say u crazy today people say u crazy if u DONT buy condo:cheers2:
10 years ago u ask people buy condo they say u crazy today people say u crazy if u DONT buy condo:cheers2:
Ya lor...If 10 yrs buy many now huat till seow liao :D !
Ya lor...If 10 yrs buy many now huat till seow liao :D !
Brudder, a few reason why you said this :
1. Prices more than doubled (obvious)
2. After 10 years (in today's context) you realized your salary shot up like crazy and u also survived Lehman.... Hahahaha
Your theory is correct but limited by the following
1. Amount of money to put downpayment....
2. The salary (lower 10 years ago), which would limit the loan quantum available...
So at the end, income and savings form the basis for property multiplication... You need both... Without 1, difficult to move... Hahahahahaha
:cheers3: :cheers3: :cheers3:
Brudder, a few reason why you said this :
1. Prices more than doubled (obvious)
2. After 10 years (in today's context) you realized your salary shot up like crazy and u also survived Lehman.... Hahahaha
Your theory is correct but limited by the following
1. Amount of money to put downpayment....
2. The salary (lower 10 years ago), which would limit the loan quantum available...
So at the end, income and savings form the basis for property multiplication... You need both... Without 1, difficult to move... Hahahahahaha
:cheers3: :cheers3: :cheers3:
thats why today DONT buy 10 condo buy 1 ENOUGH:D:D:D
then buy nice car go nice holiday enjoy bottle of nice wine and tell yourself
i got condo cash car credit card and a BIG STRONG :banana:(C$%K)
thats why today DONT buy 10 condo buy 1 ENOUGH:D:D:D
then buy nice car go nice holiday enjoy bottle of nice wine and tell yourself
i got condo cash car credit card and a BIG STRONG :banana:(C$%K)
Totally agree.... Life must be balanced....
:cheers3: :cheers3: :cheers3:
Might be possible. Don t forget nowadays for reasons beyond me, there re actually quite a number of young couples who don t mind staying in MMs. Maybe die die want condo as their first property.
Yes, I have associates who are like that. Either matured estate HDB or MM. Maybe they are concerned about ability to resell, and they predict further uptrend for private.
Yes, I have associates who are like that. Either matured estate HDB or MM. Maybe they are concerned about ability to resell, and they predict further uptrend for private.
Why go cheong with the crowd. go for up coming estates let it mature and reap the most from it. go cheong with the crowd upside always limited.
tell then now a days people say HDB is for stay not for resale value ;)
They forget to count that the population increases by 100,000 every year. All fully grown adults directly imported.
Since 20 years ago, this has been the case.
Where will they stay?
Stats to support claim
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistics/browse_by_theme/population/time_series/pop2012.xls
Stats to support claim
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistics/browse_by_theme/population/time_series/pop2012.xls
thanks for the stats.
Stats to support claim
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistics/browse_by_theme/population/time_series/pop2012.xls
The sudden double digit increase in non-residence between 2007 and 2008 might have something to do with our reaction towards the current regime. Sad. But on the other hand, that was also when the property prices increased rapidly. Take note that it had a sudden reversal in 2009.
Refer to tab 3.1
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/Publications/publications_and_papers/reference/yearbook_2012/excel/topic3.xls
I have Singpaorean friend with family income > 10kpm who said EC 6xxk 2br very expensive (and angry cannot get BTO) ... when ask another friend from China whose SPR application was just rejected... he said "Your EC SO CHEAP !!!!"
China's Housing Market report in English
http://www.milkeninstitute.org/pdf/China-HousingMarket.pdf
Let's say a 65 sqm flat costs RMB 12,000 (SGD 2,520) per sqm
They count by per sqm.
1 sqm = 10.763 sqft
65 sqm (similar to a HDB 3-rm) = 699.595 sqft
Cost of a 65 sqm flat in China is = 65 x SGD 2,520 = SGD 163,800
China is still cheaper right?
phantom_opera
02-06-13, 10:29
China's Housing Market report in English
http://www.milkeninstitute.org/pdf/China-HousingMarket.pdf
Let's say a 65 sqm flat costs RMB 12,000 (SGD 2,520) per sqm
They count by per sqm.
1 sqm = 10.763 sqft
65 sqm (similar to a HDB 3-rm) = 699.595 sqft
Cost of a 65 sqm flat in China is = 65 x SGD 2,520 = SGD 163,800
China is still cheaper right?
u cannot compare Sg to avg price in china, u have to compare against Beijing n shanghai n 70ylh vs 99ylh, rental support, public housing etc
u cannot compare Sg to avg price in china, u have to compare against Beijing n shanghai n 70ylh vs 99ylh, rental support, public housing etc
Even China's property is cheaper at nominal value, the real value is certainly much lesser. Imagine the kinda escatsy when they know that in Singapore they can buy something that is Freehold! Forever theirs to pass on generations after generations ?
Even if it cost 2-3 times more, to them it is certainly worth it. The thought of something forever is never heard of in China.
A point about the expats in my office - they are usually high flying executives that are in demand. Those earning more than 20K Euros cannot be in the "cannot find job" category la! Moreover, they are moved from one country to another by the company.
DKSG
Anyway, back to the supply question.
Do we still have any doubts that there will be an oversupply issue 3 years down the road ?
DKSG
Actually I have.
Oversupply may appear in certain locations. Especially if you are looking at rental. You cannot look at the whole figures. This business is location specific. In a far out area dominated by HDBs and now with 20 condos coming up in 3yrs, I dun think there are that much of a surge of rental demand in 3yrs. Investors will have to hope for the HDB upgraders to absorb the supply then. The dramatic jump of pty prices in the past 20yrs will not be repeated as Singapore grows from 3rd world to 1st. Pty business will really mean the long haul. In 5 to 10yrs time, I have no doubt there will have good upside, but the quick profit will be gone, at today's OCR prices.
The current SSD has a very significant side effect : it removes all subsales. End up developer is the only player for new sales now. This results in seemingly healthy new sales figures of many projects.
One Million new residents in 10 years mean they must have build 300k housing to house these new residents...
How many did we build in the last ten years?
4m to 5.5m... need at least 350k housing...
last 3 years Khaw build 25kx3 bto + 15x3 condo = 120k housing units right?
I believe during Mah's time he max build 5k condo and 8 k bto per year...
so 13k x 10 = 130k units...
Total = 250k.....
So we are still short of 100k housing?
But can someone help answer where these 1.5m people have been staying for the last 10 years? Until now I still can't find the answer...
If the answer is... all cramped together with parents and friends but looking to buy then move out when the units completed, then I am sure no oversupply.... The household will just become smaller...
If the answer is the they are happy with their current housing and looking to buy for investment then probably got oversupply if the immigration is tighten coz we will have at least 150k units coming up by 2015...
Anyone can care to help solve this puzzle?
In my office, we do get expats and they are high levels and usually only come here for 2-5yrs. They usually come together with their family. Are there many of them? No.
In my office, we have many foreign workers. They are white collar workers who rent a room mainly and many got downgraded by one tier (work permit) due to recent govt tightening of ep/wp criteria.. Mgmt/HR are encouraging us to fill future jobs with local/PR instead. Partly bcos of the above and partly to support the govt initiatives.. We are a very big MNC but in a mfg environment.
So i am seeing an environment that is totally different from DKSG. Likely bcos mine is mfg while his is banking/finance?
In my condo, i have seen lesser expat families but many foreigners (they rented the whole house and many of them stay together). And i think some are even more than one to a room. I am staying in RCR near MRT.
So who is right or wrong? Or we are all correct? So maybe ~80% of the foreigners coming in are just plain white collar workers and ~20% are the elite? But no matter what is the percentage, i don't believe the typical white collar foreign workers can buy a house here unless they become PR.. The true demand from the foreigners/new citizens remain a ??
But can someone help answer where these 1.5m people have been staying for the last 10 years?
In mathematics, if you find a corollary impossible to prove, you look at the theorem itself and see if it is at fault.
In this case, "One Million new residents in 10 years mean they must have build 300k housing to house these new residents".
is there something wrong in this theorem ?
personally, I feel that an oversupply in inevitable in the next 2 yrs BUT with our population gearing towards 6.9mil, I tink the prospect is still promising in the long run. As long as one can hold on to the ppty (assume no rental demand) n cont'd to service his loan for the next 5 yrs, I tink it should still be a wise decision to invest now, no? :ashamed1:
In mathematics, if you find a corollary impossible to prove, you look at the theorem itself and see if it is at fault.
In this case, "One Million new residents in 10 years mean they must have build 300k housing to house these new residents".
is there something wrong in this theorem ?
Let me take a guest.
Govt did mentioned an increase of 1 million in population figure.
However, this population figure include CONSTRUCTION Workers, Waitresses, Maids and your usual EP,SP,WP.
We have to find out how many of the 1 MILLION are:-
1) people who do not need private/public housing as they will be housed in dormitories or their employer's home
2) Of the remainder, how many will actually be staying 3 pax to a home. Would the china waitresses be squeezed like 8 to a HDB?
Maybe after doing the estimation, the true demand might be lesser than that of a simple 1million resident divided by 3resident per household = no. of housing needed.
It will be delusional to think that foreigners are secure in Singapore. If there's a recession between now to 2016, you can be sure a lot of EP will be cancelled. Even PR will face some restrictions.
Otherwise, come 2016, the result of PE BE wll repeat across islandwide.
At the end of the day, it's all about survival.
In my office, we do get expats and they are high levels and usually only come here for 2-5yrs. They usually come together with their family. Are there many of them? No.
In my office, we have many foreign workers. They are white collar workers who rent a room mainly and many got downgraded by one tier (work permit) due to recent govt tightening of ep/wp criteria.. Mgmt/HR are encouraging us to fill future jobs with local/PR instead. Partly bcos of the above and partly to support the govt initiatives.. We are a very big MNC but in a mfg environment.
So i am seeing an environment that is totally different from DKSG. Likely bcos mine is mfg while his is banking/finance?
In my condo, i have seen lesser expat families but many foreigners (they rented the whole house and many of them stay together). And i think some are even more than one to a room. I am staying in RCR near MRT.
So who is right or wrong? Or we are all correct? So maybe ~80% of the foreigners coming in are just plain white collar workers and ~20% are the elite? But no matter what is the percentage, i don't believe the typical white collar foreign workers can buy a house here unless they become PR.. The true demand from the foreigners/new citizens remain a ??
In my office, we do get expats and they are high levels and usually only come here for 2-5yrs. They usually come together with their family. Are there many of them? No.
In my office, we have many foreign workers. They are white collar workers who rent a room mainly and many got downgraded by one tier (work permit) due to recent govt tightening of ep/wp criteria.. Mgmt/HR are encouraging us to fill future jobs with local/PR instead. Partly bcos of the above and partly to support the govt initiatives.. We are a very big MNC but in a mfg environment.
So i am seeing an environment that is totally different from DKSG. Likely bcos mine is mfg while his is banking/finance?
In my condo, i have seen lesser expat families but many foreigners (they rented the whole house and many of them stay together). And i think some are even more than one to a room. I am staying in RCR near MRT.
So who is right or wrong? Or we are all correct? So maybe ~80% of the foreigners coming in are just plain white collar workers and ~20% are the elite? But no matter what is the percentage, i don't believe the typical white collar foreign workers can buy a house here unless they become PR.. The true demand from the foreigners/new citizens remain a ??
Yes. Office Boy works in a bank/finance environment.
The big question is are the high end expats in your company wanting to stay in Singapore ? Our property supply issue is very much correlated to the desirability of Singapore as a country.
Everyone (most) of us including the government wants to make Singapore a desirable city to work, play and live in. This creates demand for our properties.
If otherwise, long ago, the property prices in Johor would have been very much comparable to ours.
I strongly believe that the efforts to make Singapore a desirable country to live in will be a success story. Thats why the government has been busy trying to get everyone on the property ladder - at least own a HDB, say MM Lee - so that when the country continue to prosper, you get to benefit.
Of course politically, this is the way the governing party stays in power la! But all around the world, people wants this! Country to prosper, people become rich, own assets, have a good and happy life!
DKSG
SINGAPORE: Minister for National Development Khaw Boon Wan said on Monday that the Housing and Development Board (HDB) is on track to deliver 13,600 units this year.
About 6,000 Build-To-Order (BTO) units have already been completed as of end-May.
HDB has been ramping up its building programme in the last few years to meet (http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/hdb-construction-will-slow-after-2015-kh/696318.html#) housing demand.
However, Mr Khaw said this ramp-up in supply is not sustainable in the long run, and the number of flats launched is likely to slow down after 2015.
Mr Khaw was speaking to the media after witnessing the handover of the completed BTO block - Treegrove@Woodlands - from the appointed contractor to HDB.
HDB launched 25,000 flats in 2011 and 27,000 flats last year. This year, it plans to launch some 25,000 units.
In terms of completion, 29,000 and 26,000 flats are expected each year in 2014 and 2015.
- CNA/fa
Khaw also mentioned that there are 15k family formation a year... So 25k bto + 15k pc total 40k - 15k family formation so extra 25k a year.... Since he will build for another two years so total 100k spare units...
So any excess oversupply?
Khaw also mentioned that there are 15k family formation a year... So 25k bto + 15k pc total 40k - 15k family formation so extra 25k a year.... Since he will build for another two years so total 100k spare units...
So any excess oversupply?
Do u think they are clearing backlog?
Check past info on how many hdb was built over past 7 years or so and match it with family formation and you will be able to get your equation. Hahaha
Look at how many times over subscribed at each hdb exercise.
Check out how easy to get a flat at first try.
starrynight
03-06-13, 22:03
Fellow forummers in the banking industry, have you heard any news about the banks now taking special efforts to hire locals for roles?
A friend said the following:
a. Deutsche Bank: active local hiring policy in place
b. Stanchart: "not allowed" (as a matter of internal policy) to hire any more people from a certain sub-continent till further notice
Fellow forummers in the banking industry, have you heard any news about the banks now taking special efforts to hire locals for roles?
A friend said the following:
a. Deutsche Bank: active local hiring policy in place
b. Stanchart: "not allowed" (as a matter of internal policy) to hire any more people from a certain sub-continent till further notice
I am not surprised....
All kena drink kopi with Tan Chuan Jin liao....
Khaw also mentioned that there are 15k family formation a year... So 25k bto + 15k pc total 40k - 15k family formation so extra 25k a year.... Since he will build for another two years so total 100k spare units...
So any excess oversupply?
Think along these lines -
1. Does 15k families formation include singles and divorcees?
2. Does the number include foreign workers here on work permits?
3. Is there still demand for second home ownership?
Somehow I have this weird feeling that Mr Khaw is reading or receives info from our forum...
It's good that his policy intentions and directions are well articulated. But there hidden meanings that are generally oblivious.
Khaw also mentioned that there are 15k family formation a year... So 25k bto + 15k pc total 40k - 15k family formation so extra 25k a year.... Since he will build for another two years so total 100k spare units...
So any excess oversupply?
If I remember correctly, the goverment is providing more than 40K HDB units for rental purpose last year under a XXX plan (I cannot remeber the name), and this year, the number will be increased to 60K. Maybe, this goup will digest the excessive HDB supplies, or to say, the excessive HDBs are designed for this group.
Think along these lines -
1. Does 15k families formation include singles and divorcees?
2. Does the number include foreign workers here on work permits?
3. Is there still demand for second home ownership?
Somehow I have this weird feeling that Mr Khaw is reading or receives info from our forum...
It's good that his policy intentions and directions are well articulated. But there hidden meanings that are generally oblivious.
So what do you think he is trying to hint with his latest comments? He did say building 25k bto is not sustainable and it will have a glut in future..
So I guess from 2015 onwards he will reduce back to 5k to 8k range
Amber Woods
04-06-13, 14:13
Soft-landing Needs All To Play (http://mndsingapore.wordpress.com/2013/06/03/soft-landing-needs-all-to-play/)
June 3, 2013
http://mndsingapore.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/picture11.jpg?w=675&h=260
We are engineering a soft-landing for our housing market. We are making progress. However, continuing progress requires all to play their part. We also need a bit of luck, as some factors are completely beyond our control, e.g. what the US Federal Reserve and the key central bankers do that impacts on global economy.
One key strategy is to ramp up the supply of flats and private residential units. We will begin to feel the effect of the ramped up supply this year; but the full effect will be felt next year and the year after that.
I watch the progress of the construction programme closely as it is an important element in our soft-landing mission.
This year we are scheduled to complete 13,600 flats and 18,400 private residential units. At half-way mark, what is the score?
HDB’s contractors have completed 6,000 units as of 31 May and despite the tightening foreign labour policy, they are confident to deliver the remaining 7,600 units by year end.
I visited the BTO project Treegrove @ Woodlands today. I witnessed the main contractor handing over the keys to one of the completed blocks of flats to HDB. To help residents move into their flats earlier, HDB has arranged it such that the BTO projects are completed in phases. Buyers can receive their keys as soon as the individual blocks within the project are completed. For this particular block at Treegrove @ Woodlands, flat buyers can receive the keys within a couple of weeks.
I visited Mr Abdul Manan and his family who received the keys to their flat earlier in March. He told me that they needed a place urgently and HDB’s practice of handing over the keys block by block has benefited him greatly.
As for private residential units, 3,500 have been completed as at end of April. Based on the latest construction progress of projects, URA estimates that the remaining 14,900 private residential units can be completed this year.
I am seeing more light coming from the end of the tunnel. However, we must not be complacent and to press on with the efforts to restore the balance in supply and demand
In case many of you all dont read stuff outside of Singapore, let Office Boy share this with you.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/c7e99970-ce3c-11e2-a13e-00144feab7de.html#axzz2VhlgOeOq
When you read things like this, then you know why people aspire to be in Singapore. Especially those mobile rich people around the world. When you are rich, what else gets you very worried - Health!
Money can buy health - this is true in Singapore! In other countries, rich people also can die of simple disease, but in Singapore, if you die because of illnesses, your family can easily easily say - we all tried our best - because this is about the best healthcare in the world already.
Think, my friends, Think.
DKSG
Iskandar is even more scary.
...6.9mil will spill over some......esp with strong SGD....got integrated wellness township some more...i
phantom_opera
12-06-13, 16:31
Singapore has no choice but to continue importing immigrants to moderate inflation ... otherwise next year NTUC must publish on first page demanding cleaning company to increase wages by $600 instead of $60 lol
If we cut immmigration in a big way, be prepared for $10 Starbucks kopi soon
since almost everyone owns a property in SG, SG garmen will take high property prices vs high food prices anytime one lah .. just give more subsidy to low income household for BTOs loh ... this of course is not very good for SPRs/foreigners but they still come mah
Our air is relatively clean, our education system is relatively good, our streets are safe, our currency is stable and our country is not expected to go bankrupt any time soon. Quite attractive to foreigners even if our own population think that pastures elsewhere are greener.
phantom_opera
12-06-13, 16:45
Our air is relatively clean, our education system is relatively good, our streets are safe, our currency is stable and our country is not expected to go bankrupt any time soon. Quite attractive to foreigners even if our own population think that pastures elsewhere are greener.
the recent riots in Sweden / Turkey seem to have silenced the kpkb group a bit lol
if the kpkb group think Singapore is expensive, PAP should fund them to go out of Singapore and visit Moscow, Oslo, Tokyo, Beijing, Hong Kong ... may be after they come back they will just shut up :p
and I think our new young blood MOM minister has overdone the EP/S-Pass tightening ... he will be scolded by the seniors soon ;)
the recent riots in Sweden / Turkey seem to have silenced the kpkb group a bit lol
if the kpkb group think Singapore is expensive, PAP should fund them to go out of Singapore and visit Moscow, Oslo, Tokyo, Beijing, Hong Kong ... may be after they come back they will just shut up :p
and I think our new young blood MOM minister has overdone the EP/S-Pass tightening ... he will be scolded by the seniors soon ;)
spore got riot only in forum:D:D:D and sometimes at speaker corner:D
phantom_opera
12-06-13, 16:55
Paradoxically, the biggest hindrance to assimilating foreigners in Sweden has been the country’s “dogged attempts to maintain absolute economic equality at very high rates” of pay, says Fredrik Segerfeldt of Migro, a pro-immigration Swedish think-tank, in The Wall Street Journal. Rigid sector-wide union agreements mean Sweden has higher de facto minimum wages, as well as higher taxes, than its peers, and has “fewer low-wage entry-level jobs than any other EU member”.
=> Sweden no 1k cleaner job due to high minimum wage ... ;)
the recent riots in Sweden / Turkey seem to have silenced the kpkb group a bit lol
if the kpkb group think Singapore is expensive, PAP should fund them to go out of Singapore and visit Moscow, Oslo, Tokyo, Beijing, Hong Kong ... may be after they come back they will just shut up :p
and I think our new young blood MOM minister has overdone the EP/S-Pass tightening ... he will be scolded by the seniors soon ;)
Agree. Our youngsters don't appreciate what they have in Singapore. They take so many things for granted.
The tightening of the passes is kind of like a deliberate over-reaction to the anti-foreigner sentiment of the voters at the last election. PAP "showing" us what will really happen if we limit foreign workers here. It's a bit paternalistic....to "teach us a lesson". So that we appreciate that Singapore needs foreign workers.
phantom_opera
12-06-13, 16:57
spore got riot only in forum:D:D:D and sometimes at speaker corner:D
or print so much that no hands to throw stones .. a man in Zimbabwe carrying cash to shop:
http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-BA632_ZIMDLR_DV_20110510183741.jpg
....
if the kpkb group think Singapore is expensive, PAP should fund them to go out of Singapore and visit Moscow, Oslo, Tokyo, Beijing, Hong Kong ... may be after they come back they will just shut up :p
.....
it really pays to kpkb. get free trip to so many places.
i think i wont stop kpkb until i have visited Moscow, Oslo, Tokyo, Beijing, Hong Kong. :)
the squeaky wheel get the grease.
phantom_opera
12-06-13, 17:16
it really pays to kpkb. get free trip to so many places.
i think i wont stop kpkb until i have visited Moscow, Oslo, Tokyo, Beijing, Hong Kong. :)
the squeaky wheel get the grease.
my China friend told me when he started work his pay was 4-6k rmb per month, at that time BJ property price was 4,000 rmb psqm
now ... his pay is 20,000 rmb per month, BJ property price is 40k-60k rmb pm
salary up 5x, property price up 10x
or print so much that no hands to throw stones .. a man in Zimbabwe carrying cash to shop:
http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-BA632_ZIMDLR_DV_20110510183741.jpgCan he arrive at the shop still w his cash??? At least those in China place their cash in a plastic bag.... ;) My China colleague carried 20k RMB inside his bag. he showed me and I was :eek:
phantom_opera
12-06-13, 18:11
A 100-trillion-dollar bill, it turns out, is worth about $5.
That's the going rate for Zimbabwe's highest denomination note, the biggest ever produced for legal tender—and a national symbol of monetary policy run amok. At one point in 2009, a hundred-trillion-dollar bill couldn't buy a bus ticket in the capital of Harare.
But since then the value of the Zimbabwe dollar has soared. Not in Zimbabwe, where the currency has been abandoned, but on eBay.
===
I personally spent millions of turkish lira b4 when I was a student ... trust me .. it is not easy :banghead:
phantom_opera
12-06-13, 18:52
http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidyin/2013/06/06/singapore-needs-immigrants-says-jim-rogers/
Sorry to ask... Why are we comparing to Zimbabwe? One bro mention about Singapore being safe, being clean, have good education, etc etc.. then another come out with Zimbabwe? hahahaha... Sorry just cannot find the connection
But I do agree Singapore property is relatively cheaper compared to Shanghai and Beijing in 2010.. Now I think except for HDB, Singapore property is really much more expensive than them... But the demand for housing in China is really high when you consider one person with the local hukou can only buy one property.. I am wondering if our government limited one property to one Singaporean, what will happen in the price? Will it be as robust as China...
my China friend told me when he started work his pay was 4-6k rmb per month, at that time BJ property price was 4,000 rmb psqm
now ... his pay is 20,000 rmb per month, BJ property price is 40k-60k rmb pm
salary up 5x, property price up 10x
from wat I noe, there is some particular high class mix development condo in dongzhimen area with pricing ard mid rmb30k psm.
the data tat yr china friend provided u might be a bit misleading, cos he might not be comparing the same category when he quoted rmb4k vs rmb40k-60k
I googled n there is a recent report on BJ avg housing $:
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-01/07/c_132084437.htm
phantom_opera
13-06-13, 12:04
from wat I noe, there is some particular high class mix development condo in dongzhimen area with pricing ard mid rmb30k psm.
the data tat yr china friend provided u might be a bit misleading, cos he might not be comparing the same category when he quoted rmb4k vs rmb40k-60k
I googled n there is a recent report on BJ avg housing $:
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-01/07/c_132084437.htm
u cannot take average ... Beijing is VERY BIG (with very old apartments, very new apartments) .. of course certain area can be 20-30k psm, certain area brand new can be 80k-100kpsqm!!!
read this, Wudaokou hit 100k rmb per square meter, I have been around there many times ...
http://www.chinasmack.com/2013/stories/beijing-wudaokou-housing-prices-100k-rmb-per-square-meter.html
Wudaokou (Chinese: 五道口; pinyin: Wǔdàokǒu), literally in Chinese the fifth level crossing of the Jingbao Railway, is a neighborhood in the Haidian District of North West Beijing. It is around 10 km from the center of Beijing, between the fourth and fifth ring roads
phantom_opera
13-06-13, 12:09
http://img.chinasmack.com/www/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/beijing-wudaokou-housing-prices-reach-100k-per-sqm-300x450.jpg
Where is this hua qing property?
Wudaokou is expensive because several best universities, such as Peking University and Tsing Hua university are all around.
In Singapore, people are pricing the PCs based on CCR, OCR, RCR only. It may change in future with more and more new immigrants from China.
u cannot take average ... Beijing is VERY BIG (with very old apartments, very new apartments) .. of course certain area can be 20-30k psm, certain area brand new can be 80k-100kpsqm!!!
read this, Wudaokou hit 100k rmb per square meter, I have been around there many times ...
http://www.chinasmack.com/2013/stories/beijing-wudaokou-housing-prices-100k-rmb-per-square-meter.html
Wudaokou (Chinese: 五道口; pinyin: Wǔdàokǒu), literally in Chinese the fifth level crossing of the Jingbao Railway, is a neighborhood in the Haidian District of North West Beijing. It is around 10 km from the center of Beijing, between the fourth and fifth ring roads
phantom_opera
13-06-13, 22:24
1br 370sqft 60y lease left asking 3.5m rmb
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