View Full Version : Interesting Article About Property Cycles
CondoInterested
25-05-13, 22:03
Maybe the seasoned ones here already know, but I found this Singapore Property Cycles Website Article (http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/property-cycles) very interesting.
1975-1986 cycle, Peak to End in 7Q (less than last 2 yrs of the cycle)
1986-1998 cycle, Peak to End in 10Q (more than last 2 yrs of the cycle)
1999-2004 cycle, Peak to End in 16Q (last 4 yrs of the cycle)
2004-2009 cycle, Peak to End in 5Q (more than last 1 yr of the cycle)
2009-Present, when Peak is anyone's guess, when is End (bottom) is also anyone's guess.
CondoInterested
25-05-13, 22:04
Someone will say "C" tomorrow. :D
Someone will say "C" tomorrow. :D
Hi...Monday will be more appropriate for announcement.
CondoInterested
25-05-13, 22:10
Even the peak is yesterday, you have to wait between 1 to 4 yrs (from above data) to see the bottom. Slowly wait lor :D
Maybe the seasoned ones here already know, but I found this Singapore Property Cycles Website Article (http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/property-cycles) very interesting.
1975-1986 cycle, Peak to End in 7Q (less than last 2 yrs of the cycle)
1986-1998 cycle, Peak to End in 10Q (more than last 2 yrs of the cycle)
1999-2004 cycle, Peak to End in 16Q (last 4 yrs of the cycle)
2004-2009 cycle, Peak to End in 5Q (more than last 1 yr of the cycle)
2009-Present, when Peak is anyone's guess, when is End (bottom) is also anyone's guess.
the question is also, will this cycle ending be lower than the 1999-2004 or 2004-2009 cycle?
If only property investment is so easy just looking at the chart.
Property investment is not just 1+1=2.
http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap64h.pdf
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/singapore/money-supply-m3
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/singapore-plans-massive-infrastructure-spending-report
http://iissvoicesblog.wordpress.com/2013/03/15/hard-truths-about-singapores-defence/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iS-ECGyJqa0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ajpoxwJgHUM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yuGzdOhVOU
2012130文茜的世界週報1─新加坡教育立國 挖角全球人才 Contact Singapore.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/singapore-continues-to-attract-top-scientific-talents-58056652.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zWfbE_63SQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uh2yVSp0Qjw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97J3TtyhkP0
CondoInterested
26-05-13, 07:42
to further summarise, whatever the factors influencing, the property, unlike shares, will not drop to the bottom over days or weeks or months, it takes some few quarters.
@Arcachon
Care if you make a summary of what are you trying to say from all those link.
CondoInterested
26-05-13, 09:26
75-86 cycle
Up 300+%, down 30+%
Major Events
1980 - Iran-Iraq war. Interest rates and gold prices soared.
1981 - Stock market crash.
1984 - Pan El crisis.
1986 - Recession in Singapore
86-98 cycle
Up 400+%, down 40+%
Major Events
1987 - Black Monday 19 October, global stock markets crash.
1990 - Iraq invasion of Kuwait. Global stock markets crash.
1991 - Gulf War I.
1994 - Stock market crash. Interest rates crisis.
1995 - Collapse of Barings Bank.
1996 - Property curbs in Singapore.
1997 - Start of the Asian Financial Crisis. Thai Baht crisis. Asian stocks markets crash.
1998 - Contagion spreads. Clob, Ringgit and Ruppiah crisis. Asian stocks and property markets meltdown.
99-04 cycle
Up 40+%, down 19+%
Major Events
2000 - Nasdaq meltdown. Global stock markets crash.
2001 - US in recession. September 11 World Trade Centre collapsed. Global terrorism.
2002 - Enron crisis. Arthur Andersen scandal. Global recession.
2003 - Gulf War II. SARS outbreak. Asean recession deepens.
2004 - Tsunami in Indonesia.
04-09 cycle
Up 50+%, down 20+%
Major Events
2007 - Sub-Prime crisis.
2008 - Lehman Brothers collapsed. Global Financial Crisis. Stock and property markets meltdown.
09-Present
Up 59.9% (at April)
Major Events
2009 - US QE1.
2010 - US QE2. European debt crisis.
2011 - Arab spring. Tsunami in Japan. Floods in Thailand.
Thanks for the summary
75-86 cycle
Up 300+%, down 30+%
Major Events
1980 - Iran-Iraq war. Interest rates and gold prices soared.
1981 - Stock market crash.
1984 - Pan El crisis.V
1986 - Recession in Singapore
86-98 cycle
Up 400+%, down 40+%
Major Events
1987 - Black Monday 19 October, global stock markets crash.
1990 - Iraq invasion of Kuwait. Global stock markets crash.
1991 - Gulf War I.
1994 - Stock market crash. Interest rates crisis.
1995 - Collapse of Barings Bank.
1996 - Property curbs in Singapore.
1997 - Start of the Asian Financial Crisis. Thai Baht crisis. Asian stocks markets crash.
1998 - Contagion spreads. Clob, Ringgit and Ruppiah crisis. Asian stocks and property markets meltdown.
99-04 cycle
Up 40+%, down 19+%
Major Events
2000 - Nasdaq meltdown. Global stock markets crash.
2001 - US in recession. September 11 World Trade Centre collapsed. Global terrorism.
2002 - Enron crisis. Arthur Andersen scandal. Global recession.
2003 - Gulf War II. SARS outbreak. Asean recession deepens.
2004 - Tsunami in Indonesia.
04-09 cycle
Up 50+%, down 20+%
Major Events
2007 - Sub-Prime crisis.
2008 - Lehman Brothers collapsed. Global Financial Crisis. Stock and property markets meltdown.
09-Present
Up 59.9% (at April)
Major Events
2009 - US QE1.
2010 - US QE2. European debt crisis.
2011 - Arab spring. Tsunami in Japan. Floods in Thailand.
CondoInterested
26-05-13, 09:42
Looking at pass trends, honestly there is no good time or no bad time to enter the property market because the over long term trend is more up than down which it summed up positive upwards.
When you buy at last high, you thought aiya, waste money, but at the current high, it is higher than previous high.
When you buy at last low, you thought you pick up something cheap, but you compare to last low or high, eh, actually current low is still higher.
So the key is you must be able with $$$ power to hold on tight tight to the property during those low (actually may not be your low during the low periods depending on when you buy it), right? And make profit at anytime you as seller's wish, not at buyers wish.
So invest at your own favourable time.
So for those who have vested (at anytime), lets cheers and get high, higher and higest.
Those MTB, stock up $$$, buy when you are enable by $$$ and take care of the interest rates as well.
Looking at pass trends, honestly there is no good time or no bad time to enter the property market because the over long term trend is more up than down which it summed up positive upwards.
When you buy at last high, you thought aiya, waste money, but at the current high, it is higher than previous high.
When you buy at last low, you thought you pick up something cheap, but you compare to last low or high, eh, actually current low is still higher.
So the key is you must be able with $$$ power to hold on tight tight to the property during those low (actually may not be your low during the low periods depending on when you buy it), right? And make profit at anytime you as seller's wish, not at buyers wish.
So invest at your own favourable time.
So for those who have vested (at anytime), lets cheers and get high, higher and higest.
Those MTB, stock up $$$, buy when you are enable by $$$ and take care of the interest rates as well.
duh... you telling me no diff in paying 1mil vs 2 mil the same house just 2 years apart
Hi...this gives me a pleasant feeling of getting a Mt Sinai property.
For property it is better to buy when u still not so old. Every year of wait reduces your number of loan years. If u r 45years and crash come 10yrs later u will be 55yrs old. And if u r already 55yrs old and if crash come 10yrs later u will be 65yrs old, game over, bank not lending.
CondoInterested
26-05-13, 14:20
duh... you telling me no diff in paying 1mil vs 2 mil the same house just 2 years apart For people with little $$$ like me, of course got huge difference, but for people with a lot of $$$$$$$$$$, they can afford to throw millions like nothing and too little to feel the pinch.
But the problem is in SG, land is scarce, looking at pass few cycles, value go up more than go down, so base on such assumption, $1m few years ago may not come again, so the current $2m may drop say to $1.5m during the next bear and may go up to say $2.5 during next bull after the next bear.
to further summarise, whatever the factors influencing, the property, unlike shares, will not drop to the bottom over days or weeks or months, it takes some few quarters.
@Arcachon
Care if you make a summary of what are you trying to say from all those link.
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=17750
One day I ask my father why he don't upgrade to a bigger HDB, his reply to me is when the War come everything is gone.
My grandfather was murder by the Japanese during WWII in 1942 when my father was 9 yrs old.
To find the answer whether when the War is here will Singapore become nothing I join the Airforce.
Over the yrs SAF have change a lot.
Singapore economic and infrastructure have also change a lot but the same answer my father give me is still as important, "when the War come everything is gone."
With the answer in mind my property investment will always be more debt and cash out. When the war come I will be in another country and I will use the money I have to get the one who start the war in Singapore to pay.
One day I ask my father why he don't upgrade to a bigger HDB, his reply to me is when the War come everything is gone.
My grandfather was murder by the Japanese during WWII in 1942 when my father was 9 yrs old.
To find the answer whether when the War is here will Singapore become nothing I join the Airforce.
Over the yrs SAF have change a lot.
Singapore economic and infrastructure have also change a lot but the same answer my father give me is still as important, "when the War come everything is gone."
With the answer in mind my property investment will always be more debt and cash out. When the war come I will be in another country and I will use the money I have to get the one who start the war in Singapore to pay.
Actually u r supposed to stay behind n fight e war while PRs n foreigners escape from Singapore. Prob u die in war but Singapore is saved n e PRs n foreigners can return n continue their life here happily ever after in their intact properties tt u have helped to save.
War can be fought in different dimension. Wining the War is not the end, making the one who start the War pay is the end. This is what the Japanese pay for starting the War.
http://history.howstuffworks.com/world-war-ii/japan-surrenders-world-war-2-ends2.htm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5OI9xrJ8Zw
Little Boy Bomb.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvI05XHFldg
War can be fought in different dimension. Wining the War is not the end, making the one who start the War pay is the end. This is what the Japanese pay for starting the War.
http://history.howstuffworks.com/world-war-ii/japan-surrenders-world-war-2-ends2.htm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5OI9xrJ8Zw
Little Boy Bomb.
Ok, v grand words but u might have to sacrifice ur life in e process.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfozG4FP1RI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDaiQ9n5wEM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=fvwp&v=87u2i2uTSJE&NR=1
Long live the Japanese King.
Ok, v grand words but u might have to sacrifice ur life in e process.
I don't "Give My Life for My Country", "I make my enemy give his life for his country".
Can you see the trend as it is moving from one continent to the next at the start and now is moving to global.
75-86 cycle
Up 300+%, down 30+%
Major Events
1980 - Iran-Iraq war. Interest rates and gold prices soared.
1981 - Stock market crash.
1984 - Pan El crisis.
1986 - Recession in Singapore
86-98 cycle
Up 400+%, down 40+%
Major Events
1987 - Black Monday 19 October, global stock markets crash.
1990 - Iraq invasion of Kuwait. Global stock markets crash.
1991 - Gulf War I.
1994 - Stock market crash. Interest rates crisis.
1995 - Collapse of Barings Bank.
1996 - Property curbs in Singapore.
1997 - Start of the Asian Financial Crisis. Thai Baht crisis. Asian stocks markets crash.
1998 - Contagion spreads. Clob, Ringgit and Ruppiah crisis. Asian stocks and property markets meltdown.
99-04 cycle
Up 40+%, down 19+%
Major Events
2000 - Nasdaq meltdown. Global stock markets crash.
2001 - US in recession. September 11 World Trade Centre collapsed. Global terrorism.
2002 - Enron crisis. Arthur Andersen scandal. Global recession.
2003 - Gulf War II. SARS outbreak. Asean recession deepens.
2004 - Tsunami in Indonesia.
04-09 cycle
Up 50+%, down 20+%
Major Events
2007 - Sub-Prime crisis.
2008 - Lehman Brothers collapsed. Global Financial Crisis. Stock and property markets meltdown.
09-Present
Up 59.9% (at April)
Major Events
2009 - US QE1.
2010 - US QE2. European debt crisis.
2011 - Arab spring. Tsunami in Japan. Floods in Thailand.
My grandpa comes from china and the first think he did was to work hard and bought a piece of FH landed property and next is to buy a FH land to support his business instead of leasing. The rest is history.
One day I ask my father why he don't upgrade to a bigger HDB, his reply to me is when the War come everything is gone.
My grandfather was murder by the Japanese during WWII in 1942 when my father was 9 yrs old.
To find the answer whether when the War is here will Singapore become nothing I join the Airforce.
Over the yrs SAF have change a lot.
Singapore economic and infrastructure have also change a lot but the same answer my father give me is still as important, "when the War come everything is gone."
With the answer in mind my property investment will always be more debt and cash out. When the war come I will be in another country and I will use the money I have to get the one who start the war in Singapore to pay.
Honestly guys, you think there will be war in sg? We have a big US aircraft carrier base in sembawang but we claim its just a logistics base there, we have exxon shell in here with billions of dollars of investment, we have Interpol soon at tanglin, we have numerous fighter plans in france US and australia, and we are a majority Chinese country so china has a big reason to ensure it stays status quo here....
Sp wha are the chances of war here?
Hendrickson affair [edit]
The investigations into the Marxist conspirators led to an unexpected discovery. A US diplomat stationed here, Hank Hendrickson, had been interfering in Singapore politics ... Such foreign clandestine operations are part and parcel of “the Great Game” between countries, even friendly ones ... These episodes taught us that it was just as important to monitor our friends as we do our enemies.
Lee Hsien Loong, Prime Minister of Singapore, in a 2008 speech to the Internal Security Department on the occasion of their 60th anniversary dinner.[3]
E. Mason "Hank" Hendrickson (born 1945), an American diplomat married to fellow Foreign Service officer Anne E. Derse, was serving as the First Secretary of the United States Embassy when he was expelled by the Singaporean government in May 1988.[4][5][6] Prior to his expulsion, he arranged for Francis Seow and Patrick Seong to travel to Washington, D.C. to meet with American officials at Hendrickson's arrangement.[7] After their return, Singapore detained them under the Internal Security Act.[8] Based on Seow and Seong's statements while in custody, the Singaporean government alleged that Hendrickson attempted to interfere in Singapore's internal affairs by cultivating opposition figures in a "Marxist conspiracy".[7] Then-First Deputy Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong claimed that Hendrickson's alleged conspiracy could have resulted in the election of 20 or 30 opposition politicians to Parliament, which in his words could lead to "horrendous" effects, possibly even the paralysis and fall of the Singaporean government.[8]
In the aftermath of Hendrickson's expulsion, the U.S. State Department praised his performance in Singapore and denied any impropriety in his actions.[4] The State Department also expelled Robert Chua, a senior-level Singaporean diplomat equal in rank to Mason, from Washington, D.C. in response.[9][10] The State Department's refusal to reprimand Hendrickson, along with their expulsion of the Singaporean diplomat, sparked a protest in Singapore by the National Trades Union Congress; they drove buses around the U.S. embassy, held a rally attended by four thousand workers, and issued a statement deriding the U.S. as "sneaky, arrogant, and untrustworthy".[11]
A Heritage Foundation paper speculated that Singapore's angry public reaction to the Hendrickson affair may have been a response to the January 1988 termination of Singapore's eligibility for the Generalized System of Preferences, which provided tariff exemptions on Singaporean exports to the United States.[9]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore%E2%80%93United_States_relations#Hendrickson_affair
http://www.escapefromparadise.com/NewFiles/seow.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzOLJE2ysNw
When you buy at last high, you thought aiya, waste money, but at the current high, it is higher than previous high..
It is easy to talk when looking at historical charts which show you the peak and bottom. It is true that long term price index will always trend upward but one has to remember that our working life is not indefinite and if you catches the wrong end of the cycle, you will be in trouble for long time or even life time.
How many time you have heard story of those who bought in the 1997 peak but then force to sell right before the next bull runs in the mid 2000s. For these people, it will be very difficult for them to recover both financially and psychologically.
http://www.singaporepropertycycle.com.sg/charts/Singapore-Property-Price-Index.jpg
CondoInterested
27-05-13, 08:42
I know of many which are caught in the after 1996 / 97 era and rental was bad then, both resale HDB and private, for bank loan many were asked to top up when the valuation fall below a certain %, that is why I put a caveat that you must have enough $$$ (cash & CPF) to hold long long, else stay out totally.
Thank you for the information compiled!
75-86 cycle
Up 300+%, down 30+%
Major Events
1980 - Iran-Iraq war. Interest rates and gold prices soared.
1981 - Stock market crash.
1984 - Pan El crisis.
1986 - Recession in Singapore
86-98 cycle
Up 400+%, down 40+%
Major Events
1987 - Black Monday 19 October, global stock markets crash.
1990 - Iraq invasion of Kuwait. Global stock markets crash.
1991 - Gulf War I.
1994 - Stock market crash. Interest rates crisis.
1995 - Collapse of Barings Bank.
1996 - Property curbs in Singapore.
1997 - Start of the Asian Financial Crisis. Thai Baht crisis. Asian stocks markets crash.
1998 - Contagion spreads. Clob, Ringgit and Ruppiah crisis. Asian stocks and property markets meltdown.
99-04 cycle
Up 40+%, down 19+%
Major Events
2000 - Nasdaq meltdown. Global stock markets crash.
2001 - US in recession. September 11 World Trade Centre collapsed. Global terrorism.
2002 - Enron crisis. Arthur Andersen scandal. Global recession.
2003 - Gulf War II. SARS outbreak. Asean recession deepens.
2004 - Tsunami in Indonesia.
04-09 cycle
Up 50+%, down 20+%
Major Events
2007 - Sub-Prime crisis.
2008 - Lehman Brothers collapsed. Global Financial Crisis. Stock and property markets meltdown.
09-Present
Up 59.9% (at April)
Major Events
2009 - US QE1.
2010 - US QE2. European debt crisis.
2011 - Arab spring. Tsunami in Japan. Floods in Thailand.
75-86 cycle
Up 300+%, down 30+%
86-98 cycle
Up 400+%, down 40+%
99-04 cycle
Up 40+%, down 19+%
04-09 cycle
Up 50+%, down 20+%
09-Present
Up 59.9% (at April)
The last two cycle (99-04 & 04-09) down approx. 20% each..
If this present cycle will only down 20%.. can't even cover the high replacement cost for 2nd especially the 3rd pty..
Moreover, nobody know where is the bottom during the downturn.. once you missed the 20% bottom, that's it.. No worth to sell & wait for 20% durian to drop & buy back if is just only 20%
CondoInterested
27-05-13, 22:35
Agree.
Early birds get worm.
The last two cycle (99-04 & 04-09) down approx. 20% each..
If this present cycle will only down 20%.. can't even cover the high replacement cost for 2nd especially the 3rd pty..
Moreover, nobody know where is the bottom during the downturn.. once you missed the 20% bottom, that's it.. No worth to sell & wait for 20% durian to drop & buy back if is just only 20%
Agree....
As imhave mentioned before...
Two years rental easily 80k, plus stamp duty easily 30k plus Reno 50k, so for a 1m property, prices must drop 16% at least just so you break even.... If proxies drop less than 20% in 2 years.... Then sigh suck thumb...
panda_bear
28-05-13, 08:02
But the problem is in SG, land is scarce, looking at pass few cycles, value go up more than go down, so base on such assumption, $1m few years ago may not come again, so the current $2m may drop say to $1.5m during the next bear and may go up to say $2.5 during next bull after the next bear.
Thanks CondoInterested. I find your compilation very educational and informative.
Agree that in general property prices will always trend upward. People just have to be more aware of how much liability one is holding and if he have enough to ride out the winter.
Agree....
As imhave mentioned before...
Two years rental easily 80k, plus stamp duty easily 30k plus Reno 50k, so for a 1m property, prices must drop 16% at least just so you break even.... If proxies drop less than 20% in 2 years.... Then sigh suck thumb...
Not to mention, the longer you wait, the less will be your loan tenure available when you take up a mortgage. And maybe the banks will further tighten the debt servicing ratio.
Very insightful report on who is buying what these days.
http://www.btinvest.com.sg/system/assets/14721/DTZ%20Property%20Times%20Singapore%20residential%20demand%20Q1%202013.pdf
Secretariat
28-05-13, 08:36
Not to mention, the longer you wait, the less will be your loan tenure available when you take up a mortgage. And maybe the banks will further tighten the debt servicing ratio.
Don't go and buy a property for this kind of reasons.
Cheers!
Property price willl not stay this "cheap" forever. For those who are still waiting for a crash, its just sad. I am not super optimistic about the price going up. Instead I am just scared of the level of determination that central banks is showing to prop up their economy. USA with its huge market, natural resources, land masses and population, will not die easily. They can play this game for years or decades. How about us? We will get caught up in their game, losing our saving, competitiveness and livelihood. Don't get scared when ben bernake is threatening to wind up QE. Don't let go of your valuable assets.
Don't go and buy a property for this kind of reasons.
Cheers!
good to see you again... how is your Land property?...
Don't get scared when ben bernake is threatening to wind up QE. Don't let go of your valuable assets..
bro, don't scare.... :D
http://i155.photobucket.com/albums/s297/blackjack21trader/3rdeye-Index_zps514d5407.jpg
Good Luck. That is all I can reveal.
http://i155.photobucket.com/albums/s297/blackjack21trader/9b3034c7aaf38a315a6878a9e18b5a64_zpsf6649a22.jpg
Secretariat
28-05-13, 10:51
good to see you again... how is your Land property?...
Hi,
I would like to avoid talking about individual's investment.
I looked at the interesting banters between Ringo and Proper-T on landed property, and felt that Ringo, regardless of where he is coming from and where he is heading, he raised some solid arguments which at least I have overlooked (I am not going into which of his arguments are solid, sorry).
Otherwise, Proper-T is mostly correct on his views on the landed sector.
My view?
There seemed to be some softening in the asking prices for landed over the last couple of weeks. Also, there have been some attractive landed units being advertised for sale at asking prices one wouldn't expect to see.
So, these are just my observations.
I would also caution on the volaitility of the Japanese bonds; what is happening in Japan does say something quite meaningful about the probable impact of more QEs in US. Hopefully, what is happening in Japan remained localized.
Cheers!
http://i155.photobucket.com/albums/s297/blackjack21trader/feac7698e4911c97a9e416d6f8c5d5bf_zps841f3d76.jpg
http://i155.photobucket.com/albums/s297/blackjack21trader/11d1a7bbfd9d180e3ba8e7a99ea8d82a_zps4629267e.jpg
http://i155.photobucket.com/albums/s297/blackjack21trader/132c74f30e4c39a4ebe47dc416da1eba_zpsf6eb09bf.jpg
http://i155.photobucket.com/albums/s297/blackjack21trader/IMG_0751_zps9c7d76b6.jpg
While jogging at Marina Bays, a great sign from the sky shows me all property in Singapore are going to cheong except landed will crash. (However, GCB will cheong )
the plume of a jet engine gave you a sign about the property market???
how so?????
the plume of a jet engine gave you a sign about the property market???
how so?????
the plume change direction from east (flattish) to north (increasing).
so prices of property market are going up.
also the plume looks like a "tick" mark. tick means good.
you do know charts progress from left to right eh..........so that means it's plunging????
you do know charts progress from left to right eh..........so that means it's plunging????
you know what...you are RIGHT !
Here's the correct photo:
http://i155.photobucket.com/albums/s297/blackjack21trader/1dd5eca4-695b-4425-9fdb-43804655519b_zps6c5762d8.jpg
CondoInterested
30-05-13, 00:38
Anymore valuable input?
The last two cycle (99-04 & 04-09) down approx. 20% each..
If this present cycle will only down 20%.. can't even cover the high replacement cost for 2nd especially the 3rd pty..
Moreover, nobody know where is the bottom during the downturn.. once you missed the 20% bottom, that's it.. No worth to sell & wait for 20% durian to drop & buy back if is just only 20%
Is difficult to time & manage to sell at the 'peak' or manage to buy back at the 'bottom'..
Let say base one the cycle of 20% down.. minus 3% at the top & bottom.. the most you only manage to get 14% out of 20%..
Is difficult to time & manage to sell at the 'peak' or manage to buy back at the 'bottom'..
Let say base one the cycle of 20% down.. minus 3% at the top & bottom.. the most you only manage to get 14% out of 20%..
add un reno costs stamp duties, absd, agents costs, legal costs, interest penalty costs and cost of renting a place for 2 years for the prices to drop....
zero sum game.... never earn much.... but if prices never drop then siao liao.... die!
add un reno costs stamp duties, absd, agents costs, legal costs, interest penalty costs and cost of renting a place for 2 years for the prices to drop....
zero sum game.... never earn much.... but if prices never drop then siao liao.... die!
Unless you have a BIG plan whereby you looking into buying next pty cost at least 3 times more..
eg. Sell your current 2-mil pty (if drop 20% will be 400k)..
But later buy back a pty costed 4.8-mil (peak time was 6-mil.. still save you up to 800-900k after minus all the "cost" you mentioned!!!)
20% of 6-mil is 1.2-mil lor
Otherwise buy back a 2-mil pty is no meaning..
Unless you have a BIG plan whereby you looking into buying next pty cost at least 3 times more..
eg. Sell your current 2-mil pty (if drop 20% will be 400k)..
But later buy back a pty costed 4.8-mil (peak time was 6-mil.. still save you up to 800-900k after minus all the "cost" you mentioned!!!)
20% of 6-mil is 1.2-mil lor
Otherwise buy back a 2-mil pty is no meaning..
Very good point.... i never thought of it this way.... new perspective.... but the buyers must have guts to double up when the market goes down 20%
https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/9351_10200401278607464_301372992_n.jpg
1. Never time the property market (none of us has the crystal ball).
2. Always buy from motivated sellers below market valuation (there will be more
motivated/desperate sellers during a decline though).
3. Buy only if the property has strong rental demand (to give you positive cash
flow).
4. Plan your exit strategy before you buy (.........).
5. Having said that, never sell unless #4 is met (property is meant to hold for
long term - you'll appreciate its appreciation).
6. With the latest CM, unless you still have plenty of spare cash, we can sit back
and :47: .
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