View Full Version : The next killer measure
What next after CM7?
My take is that it's going to be the lowering of the MSR (mortgage servicing ratio). This will be the killer blow to marginal speculators or investors waiting to jump in for their 2nd property. Never mind 7% ABSD. Just lower the MSR and you'll see the effects quick and fast.
Currently, MAS has no cap to the MSR for private properties. But it's normally capped internally at 40-50% by banks. If MAS comes in with 30% MSR ruling, it's going to be game-over for many buyers.
If CM7 fails, and I think it's not really going to work due to the lower interest rate environment, capping the MSR will do the trick.
Watch this space.
Allthepies
12-04-13, 07:38
Today? Ha ha, I tot market already dead.
Today? Ha ha, I tot market already dead.
I also thought mkt mati lioa..
one more CM, 2016 jiat lat lioa.
Today? Ha ha, I tot market already dead.
Agree. there are quite few foreign investors in the market. That's why CCR price keeps dropping.
Those who are still buying are people holding a lot of cash and do not know any better sector to invest or those young and with good salary.
If March's resale price index is a start of a trend , a new CM is highly unlikely....
What next after CM7?
My take is that it's going to be the lowering of the MSR (mortgage servicing ratio). This will be the killer blow to marginal speculators or investors waiting to jump in for their 2nd property. Never mind 7% ABSD. Just lower the MSR and you'll see the effects quick and fast.
Currently, MAS has no cap to the MSR for private properties. But it's normally capped internally at 40-50% by banks. If MAS comes in with 30% MSR ruling, it's going to be game-over for many buyers.
If CM7 fails, and I think it's not really going to work due to the lower interest rate environment, capping the MSR will do the trick.
Watch this space.
the principle behind all these CMs is really to keep housing affordable and prevent a speculative bubble from forming.
these are good measures but target the private market that is meant for 20% of the populance and didn't really help in keeping public housing affordable.
http://www.tremeritus.com/2013/04/10/are-hdb-bto-prices-really-stabilised-3-rm-increased-25/
after CM 3/4, KenoBiWan has been unleashing his lightsaber on the wrong targets (in my opinion). case in check, look at the latest GLS sales at SengKang where UOL is expected to sell the units at an average of $1050psf.
can you imagine $1050psf for a 99LH in an ulu place? extrapolate the effect on sellers and your guess is as good as mine how on earth prices are going to come down.
Judging from the tones of recent TV news, it sees that govt is already claiming victory of the recent CM7, and market has been stabilized, which is good for the longer-term health of the market, therefore, a new CM is quite unlikely.
Judging from the tones of recent TV news, it sees that govt is already claiming victory of the recent CM7, and market has been stabilized, which is good for the longer-term health of the market, therefore, a new CM is quite unlikely.
before CM7, prices were showing signs of slowing down but still KenoBiWan unleashed it.
like some fellow forummers who think likewise, we believe MND is barking up the wrong tree.
Don't worry, by the time UOL launch their sengkang west project end of the year or next year, people will be conditioned to think that 1000psf is cheap. :rolleyes:
As long as there is sufficient time for people to be conditioned to think it is cheap, there will not be bubble. :rolleyes:
Just like now, 850psf is cheap. In 2009, 580psf was cheap. In 2005, 400psf was cheap. :rolleyes:
Don't worry, by the time UOL launch their sengkang west project end of the year or next year, people will be conditioned to think that 1000psf is cheap. :rolleyes:
As long as there is sufficient time for people to be conditioned to think it is cheap, there will not be bubble. :rolleyes:
Just like now, 850psf is cheap. In 2009, 580psf was cheap. In 2005, 400psf was cheap. :rolleyes:
Well said....words of wisdom :cheers4: :cheers4:
Don't worry, by the time UOL launch their sengkang west project end of the year or next year, people will be conditioned to think that 1000psf is cheap. :rolleyes:
As long as there is sufficient time for people to be conditioned to think it is cheap, there will not be bubble. :rolleyes:
Just like now, 850psf is cheap. In 2009, 580psf was cheap. In 2005, 400psf was cheap. :rolleyes:
sure sengkang 1000psf is cheap :scared-5: :scared-5: :scared-5: :scared-5:
then eastcoast/marine parade at 1800psf, novena >$2000psf should be considered cheap as well :scared-5: :scared-5: :scared-5: :scared-5:
If March's resale price index is a start of a trend , a new CM is highly unlikely....
I do not think March's data reveal much.
First, the transactions are quite few. These are most likely fired by some panic people scared by CM7.
Also, some savvy ones were expecting a short-term dipping effect of CM7, they do not mind offloading their old one to buy a new one with a discounted price. These people should have regretted.
Check the asking price of resale units in property guru, you may find actually many are asking even higher than Dec 12. Some good projects, there are no resale unit at all, or putting a unbelievabley high asking price.
Of course, they do not mind if some big fish likes to bite their expensive bait.
Don't worry, by the time UOL launch their sengkang west project end of the year or next year, people will be conditioned to think that 1000psf is cheap. :rolleyes:
As long as there is sufficient time for people to be conditioned to think it is cheap, there will not be bubble. :rolleyes:
Just like now, 850psf is cheap. In 2009, 580psf was cheap. In 2005, 400psf was cheap. :rolleyes:
only the folks who miss the boat will scream expensive!!!!!
TravieJackie
12-04-13, 10:00
I think there's less resales units in the market.
thomastansb
12-04-13, 10:11
I fully agree with you.
Your HDB screw up big time previously so people buy private lor. And now, you punish us for your mistake? Same for COE. You happy, let people take 10 years 100% loan and some severe miscalculation by LTA. Now overheated, you go for drastic measures.
:doh:
I can agree with CMs in general but to stop Singaporean from buying 2nd property is totally against what PAP has preached all these years - Meritocracy. More geared towards communism now. 1 person, 1 property. What a joke.
the principle behind all these CMs is really to keep housing affordable and prevent a speculative bubble from forming.
these are good measures but target the private market that is meant for 20% of the populance and didn't really help in keeping public housing affordable.
http://www.tremeritus.com/2013/04/10/are-hdb-bto-prices-really-stabilised-3-rm-increased-25/
after CM 3/4, KenoBiWan has been unleashing his lightsaber on the wrong targets (in my opinion). case in check, look at the latest GLS sales at SengKang where UOL is expected to sell the units at an average of $1050psf.
can you imagine $1050psf for a 99LH in an ulu place? extrapolate the effect on sellers and your guess is as good as mine how on earth prices are going to come down.
Since mid last year, MAS has stepped up the enforcement inspection. Many banks have already tighten their credit guidelines particularly the MSR and asset based lending. As such, there is no need for any lending control at the moment, it is better to do it under cover then openingly. SG government must still be seen as financially friendly.
I feel CM8 for 2 or more ppty would be:
1. increase the downpayment from 20% to 40%.
2. downpayment, bsd & absd can only be paid via cash.
够 deadly 了吧！:tongue3:
I fully agree with you.
Same for COE. You happy, let people take 10 years 100% loan and some severe miscalculation by LTA.
Car loan regulated by MAS.
I can agree with CMs in general but to stop Singaporean from buying 2nd property is totally against what PAP has preached all these years - Meritocracy. More geared towards communism now. 1 person, 1 property. What a joke.
I would say that their intention is gd but their directions/measures taken is ineffective or too short termist.
Their solns is always to solve the immediate problem while at the same time create a another set of problem.
I am ok with 1 person, 1 property. But if all along u give ppl the freedom to buy as many they like n let the market go beyond where it should be, then now u say stop. is it fair to the rest?
I feel CM8 for 2 or more ppty would be:
1. increase the downpayment from 20% to 40%.
2. downpayment, bsd & absd can only be paid via cash.
够 deadly 了吧！:tongue3:
Not deadly enough.
How about:
All foreigners must top up 15% of their loans within 90 days. ;)
Not deadly enough.
How about:
All foreigners must top up 15% of their loans within 90 days. ;)
those that are freaking rich won't even bat an eyelid.
the problem are those bloody PRC gamblers who flee back to China after incurring a lose at RWS/Sands. should send mafia to chop their hands
those that are freaking rich won't even bat an eyelid.
the problem are those bloody PRC gamblers who flee back to China after incurring a lose at RWS/Sands. should send mafia to chop their hands
why angry, does RWS/Sands lose any money?
the gambler deposit 100k in real money.
casino extend 500k credit which is imaginary money. can the gambler withdraw 500k credit out of the casino?
gambler lose, casino still earn real money from the deposit 100k.
so casino only lose imaginary money.
maybe casino lose money in food, drinks, aircon but that is easily covered by 100k deposit.
of course if gambler wins big, then casino lose real money. but how many cases does a gambler wins big?
in fact, these 2 casinos should import more PRC gamblesr, to take their $100k deposit.
I would say that their intention is gd but their directions/measures taken is ineffective or too short termist.
Their solns is always to solve the immediate problem while at the same time create a another set of problem.
I am ok with 1 person, 1 property. But if all along u give ppl the freedom to buy as many they like n let the market go beyond where it should be, then now u say stop. is it fair to the rest?
Gov ability to provide cheap housing is gone liao. Now gov have to rely on private sector to share the burden. Land cost and construction cost are escalating, if u asked the gov to foot all that bill to provide cheap housing the gov coffer will be gone soon.
Gov ability to provide cheap housing is gone liao. Now gov have to rely on private sector to share the burden. Land cost and construction cost are escalating, if u asked the gov to foot all that bill to provide cheap housing the gov coffer will be gone soon.
huh, if land cost is $0, how does gov coffer disappear?
Not deadly enough.
How about:
All foreigners must top up 15% of their loans within 90 days. ;)
u mean existing foreigners with ppty? or new foreign buyers?
if is new, top up% issnt it the same as lesser loan given?
but usually foreign buyers hv tonnes of dirty $ to wash one la, they can pay 100% w/o any problem.
cm oni affect middle class singaporeans n PRs.
why angry, does RWS/Sands lose any money?
the gambler deposit 100k in real money.
casino extend 500k credit which is imaginary money. can the gambler withdraw 500k credit out of the casino?
gambler lose, casino still earn real money from the deposit 100k.
so casino only lose imaginary money.
maybe casino lose money in food, drinks, aircon but that is easily covered by 100k deposit.
of course if gambler wins big, then casino lose real money. but how many cases does a gambler wins big?
well, it's really a disgust. it's a loophole that those cheats can easily exploit. locals don't have the luxury of a motherland to run to.
one of the casino is suing some rich local guy of a popular nasi lemak chain to recover losses. i reckon it's bo bei zao
Gov ability to provide cheap housing is gone liao. Now gov have to rely on private sector to share the burden. Land cost and construction cost are escalating, if u asked the gov to foot all that bill to provide cheap housing the gov coffer will be gone soon.
developers cant sell cheap cos land cost is getting more exp.
tell me how to expect ppty $ to drop if the selection basis is the highest bidder will get the land?
if I am the govt :scared-4: I would say, u all bid the price tat u r willing to pay. I will sell to the bidder who match my intended price. nid not necc be the higgest bidder.
huh, if land cost is $0, how does gov coffer disappear?
Land cost is not zero. Land (among other things) is what guarantee your CPF. It is what backing singapore dollar. U don't want the gov simply print money everytime someone withdrawing CPF funds.
As the population grow and more people needed their CPF money, land price has to increase accordingly.
phantom_opera
12-04-13, 11:26
Land cost is not zero. Land (among other things) is what guarantee your CPF. It is what backing singapore dollar. U don't want the gov simply print money everytime someone withdrawing CPF funds.
As the population grow and more people needed their CPF money, land price has to increase accordingly.
many ppl do not realize land is our only natural resources :D when oil has increased from USD20 to USD100 and gold has increased from 500 to 1500USD, our land price must increase proportionally .. proceeds from GLS actually go to Temasek/GIC to generate investment return
and no more freehold .... sell u 99y only ;) want cheap HDB, how about 60LH
In today context is very different as compared to 5 yr or 10 yrs ago, the population and economic landscape in Singapore had changed.
That's explained why the govt is trying to increase the supply to ease in demand over the next few years.
Singaporean are getting richer as a whole, as majority are sandwich class which can easily afford 1 BTO hdb and 1 PC.
If the arguement is going to be the wages increase is not in tandem with inflation or property prices, then why is that so many Singaporean still able to afford 2 property and willing to pay ABSD for 2 or 3rd properties.
well, it's really a disgust. it's a loophole that those cheats can easily exploit. locals don't have the luxury of a motherland to run to.
one of the casino is suing some rich local guy of a popular nasi lemak chain to recover losses. i reckon it's bo bei zao
why dont the rich local guy go to macau and gamble, then run away.
looks like he has lemak for brains.
it is a win-win for the casinos here.
ok, let's say a gambler lose money at night. the casino knows he lose money and is a flight risk.
what can the casino do?
1) inform police?
2) detain him?
3) detain passport?
4) inform ica?
5) others?
looks the casinos know these, and yet they extend plenty of credit.
so there must be some reason right?
they make real money, imaginary money losses can be tax deductible?
casinos go through the motions, make noise in public, but behind wink-wink.
Land cost is not zero. Land (among other things) is what guarantee your CPF. It is what backing singapore dollar. U don't want the gov simply print money everytime someone withdrawing CPF funds.
As the population grow and more people needed their CPF money, land price has to increase accordingly.
we contributed cpf, rightfully it shouldnt nid to depends on appreciation of land price in order to let us withdraw the funds?
we contributed cpf, rightfully it shouldnt nid to depends on appreciation of land price in order to let us withdraw the funds?
For u the system not so good. But for gov the system is perfect. The gov pay u a lumpsum, then your sons will buy a property. Money out to pay for your CPF, then money back in again as part of the proceed of land sales to build the condo. The cycle is back to where its began.
Lowering MSR will lower the market ?
I think Mr Pool may not have experience of know whats happening in the market place.
For people who depend on the MSR to buy properties, these "investors" are long weeded out of the market already.
Moreover, MSR is a function of the downpayment. You want lower MSR, people just top up with cash. Current down payment system has in effect lowered the MSR.
I recommend (again and again) people go to showflats, talk to would be buyers, agents, bankers, and you will find out who are the current buyers and why the prices is unlikely to go down.
Thats all I can say, cant spoil the fun of your property discovery journey.
DKSG
why dont the rich local guy go to macau and gamble, then run away.
looks like he has lemak for brains.
it is a win-win for the casinos here.
ok, let's say a gambler lose money at night. the casino knows he lose money and is a flight risk.
what can the casino do?
1) inform police?
2) detain him?
3) detain passport?
4) inform ica?
5) others?
looks the casinos know these, and yet they extend plenty of credit.
so there must be some reason right?
they make real money, imaginary money losses can be tax deductible?
casinos go through the motions, make noise in public, but behind wink-wink.
because gambling is legal in singapore, macau casinos can enforce judgement through the local courts. in PRC, gambling is illegal so RWS and Sands can't do a shit about it.
legally, inform police and detain him. illegally, hire ah longs to chop off hand. the latter will ensure the culprit isn't able to cheat or gamble anymore
because gambling is legal in singapore, macau casinos can enforce judgement through the local courts. in PRC, gambling is illegal so RWS and Sands can't do a shit about it.
legally, inform police and detain him. illegally, hire ah longs to chop off hand. the latter will ensure the culprit isn't able to cheat or gamble anymore
are you sure singapore casino can inform police and the police can detain the PRC gambler?
are you sure singapore casino can inform police and the police can detain the PRC gambler?
nah, of course not. it's a civil case, not criminal
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