Amazing, do not trust any expert, not even this post

[economist]

For those who can read chinese, this article illustrates how experts and even government research institutes made wrong predictions consistently for the past many years. This is for China property market, so it may not be so relevant here,but it is just amazing.

Lesson learnt: do not trust any expert, and btw, do not attempt to draw any conclusion from the article.

http://biz.cn.yahoo.com/ypen/20130321/1669032.html

[samuelk]

For those who can read chinese, this article illustrates how experts and even government research institutes made wrong predictions consistently for the past many years. This is for China property market, so it may not be so relevant here,but it is just amazing.

Lesson learnt: do not trust any expert, and btw, do not attempt to draw any conclusion from the article.

http://biz.cn.yahoo.com/ypen/20130321/1669032.html

I still recall a stand chart analysis predicting a drop of 30% in 2012. It came and when. Even if u take into consideration the financial year of 2012 also long over

Question here is, if the analyst is still around after the flawed analysis of the market.

Its not like a fortune teller. ...all based on years of training ...

[RCT]

The problem with China is that the actual salary and the salary on paper is too much difference... I remember reading an articles stating that.. The actual salary is much higher than the salary on paper... Analyst do their analysis based on figure.. But when figure are wrong... Hahahahaha

[zzz1]

Any articulars and writing , readers need and must be discern, one has to be mindful of the auhor perspective and importancely whether is the source of infomation is trust worthly or not..

A lot of time, the so call analysis is nothing but bs..

[DKSG]

That is why I always advocate going down to the showflats and take a look at the market yourself.

DKSG

[DuaNehNehChioBu]

That is why I always advocate going down to the showflats and take a look at the market yourself.

DKSG

@ DKSG

That ideal is even MORE STUPID ! :banghead:

Showflat = For Show ! :rolleyes:

Decorate nice nice here and there and some would be so low to hire FAKE BUYERS, VISITORS.....to create a BUSY SCENARIO ....:tsk-tsk:

Don't be naive :doh:

[blackjack21trader]

For those who can read chinese, this article illustrates how experts and even government research institutes made wrong predictions consistently for the past many years. This is for China property market, so it may not be so relevant here,but it is just amazing.

Lesson learnt: do not trust any expert, and btw, do not attempt to draw any conclusion from the article.

http://biz.cn.yahoo.com/ypen/20130321/1669032.html

very true, good brother. there are only a handful of brothers here one can trust. I am of course the most dependable because me no expert.

:)

[Kelonguni]

For those who can read chinese, this article illustrates how experts and even government research institutes made wrong predictions consistently for the past many years. This is for China property market, so it may not be so relevant here,but it is just amazing.

Lesson learnt: do not trust any expert, and btw, do not attempt to draw any conclusion from the article.

http://biz.cn.yahoo.com/ypen/20130321/1669032.html

Very true, I don't even trust myself.

[sherlock]

very true, good brother. there are only a handful of brothers here one can trust. I am of course the most dependable because me no expert.

:)
I'm sure there are many who would want to thrust DNNCB. :p Pun Intended.

[TMATT]

A good Chinese article, Tks for sharing.

But we sure got people like the one mention inside, sell away property & live at rental unit, hopefully market will crash since 2009,2010,2011,2012, and now .... 2013 ... Feel sad for their family only.

What will this group of people do? Scold govt never provide "affordable " unit, wish property will crash 30%.
Ok lah, let their wish come true 2018 since it alway 10yrs cycle (1998 Asia crises, 2008 global crises) but they still not going to benefit, as they will scare to buy!

A 1249sqft unit only cost $550psf in 2009,
now $1000sqft, if everything go well,
it may reach $1500psf by 2017,

so even 30~50% crash, it still profitable for those who secure early, and maybe by then can buy 2 more units at CCR:D by using the rental collected past few years

[Kelonguni]

A good Chinese article, Tks for sharing.

But we sure got people like the one mention inside, sell away property & live at rental unit, hopefully market will crash since 2009,2010,2011,2012, and now .... 2013 ... Feel sad for their family only.

What will this group of people do? Scold govt never provide "affordable " unit, wish property will crash 30%.
Ok lah, let their wish come true 2018 since it alway 10yrs cycle (1998 Asia crises, 2008 global crises) but they still not going to benefit, as they will scare to buy!

A 1249sqft unit only cost $550psf in 2009,
now $1000sqft, if everything go well,
it may reach $1500psf by 2017,

so even 30~50% crash, it still profitable for those who secure early, and maybe by then can buy 2 more units at CCR:D by using the rental collected past few years

I got a friend who sold large EC for 400+K in 2008. Now easily worth a million.

Anyway, it's hard to say for sure what's waiting ahead. When many people's 4 year SSD up and many units in the market, something else might come up. Right now because the CMs stop everybody from transactions, so prices keep inching up.

Personally I foresee prices stuck for a while though, but I am no expert.

[mcmlxxvi]

A good Chinese article, Tks for sharing.

But we sure got people like the one mention inside, sell away property & live at rental unit, hopefully market will crash since 2009,2010,2011,2012, and now .... 2013 ... Feel sad for their family only.

What will this group of people do? Scold govt never provide "affordable " unit, wish property will crash 30%.
Ok lah, let their wish come true 2018 since it alway 10yrs cycle (1998 Asia crises, 2008 global crises) but they still not going to benefit, as they will scare to buy!

A 1249sqft unit only cost $550psf in 2009,
now $1000sqft, if everything go well,
it may reach $1500psf by 2017,

so even 30~50% crash, it still profitable for those who secure early, and maybe by then can buy 2 more units at CCR:D by using the rental collected past few years

U r so right. Based on the downpayments, all my MM will have paid for themselves after 3-4yrs of lease.

[zzz1]

That is why I always advocate going down to the showflats and take a look at the market yourself.

DKSG
What I did was that I follow my agent to some of their marketing open house along with their buyer/seller.. As if like I m the agent also.. I was then damn free , the few trips of following the agents do gave me a eye opener, I saw how the market sentiment then.. Whether buyers were buying like no tomorrow or sellers are desperate to let to....