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30-01-13, 11:44
http://www.straitstimes.com/premium/top-the-news/story/population-road-map-its-the-day-day-journey-matters-20130130
WHITE PAPER ON POPULATION
Population road map: It's the day-to-day journey that matters
Published on Jan 30, 2013
By Lydia Lim Deputy Political Editor, NEWS ANALYSIS
IT IS an uphill task to convince a broad swathe of Singaporeans that a future population of 6.9 million will fit nicely on this small island, given the current congestion on trains and buses and a housing shortfall of recent memory.
It is also easy to mistake that figure as a target, and to misunderstand the Government's White Paper as a road map to get to 6.9 million people. But 6.9 million is neither the Government's starting nor end point.
"Our goal is simple," Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong wrote on Facebook yesterday. "To ensure Singapore continues thriving, for the sake of our younger generation."
What is less simple is the how. And that is what the White Paper grapples with.
The three challenges are: a shortage of Singaporean babies, creating enough good jobs for Singaporeans and a good quality of life. Now, how do these add up to a projected population of 6.5 million to 6.9 million by 2030?
Let's start with babies.
Singapore's total fertility rate (TFR) has been below replacement level for three decades. At the current TFR of 1.2, the citizen population will start to shrink from 2030.
The White Paper proposes more baby boosters to encourage marriage and parenthood. The Government will bump up its spending on this from $1.6 billion to $2 billion a year.
Singapore will also take in 15,000 to 25,000 new citizens a year to prevent this shrinkage, so "we don't die out like the dinosaurs", as one civil servant put it. As for permanent residents, it will take in 30,000 a year to ensure a pool of suitable potential citizens.
As most of these immigrants will likely be of working age, they will help support the growing number of elderly Singaporeans who have retired.
Next, job creation.
By 2030, two in three Singaporean workers will be professionals, managers, executives and technicians - up from half today. It will be a challenge to create enough good jobs to satisfy the aspirations of this well-educated group, and high-quality jobs for the rest of the workforce.
The White Paper projects a growth rate for the economy that the Government considers realistic and sustainable. That's 3 to 5 per cent a year up to 2020 and 2 to 3 per cent a year thereafter, up to 2030. To keep growing, Singapore will need to remain open to foreigners. The Government is unequivocal on that point.
These foreign workers will do lower-level service jobs that Singaporeans are not keen on. They will build new homes and train lines. They will help families take care of their elderly members.
A smaller number will be here to set up and run new industries.
To have enough people to do all these things, the White Paper estimates Singapore will need 1.8 million to 1.9 million foreigners by 2020, and 2.3 million to 2.5 million foreigners by 2030. Most of them will be in the workforce. Some will be students and the rest dependants of those working here. Add up these three groups - citizens, PRs and foreigners - and one ends up with a population of up to 6.9 million by 2030.
The main purpose of putting down this figure is so the ministries in charge of building homes and train lines can plan and act ahead of demand.
The White Paper sets out how the Government intends to provide for Singaporeans young and old. If all goes as planned, the future may well turn out to be more vibrant than today, with good- quality jobs, a high quality of life and a nation that can still cohere with Singaporeans at the core.
The White Paper may be the end outcome of a consultation process. But it is really also the start of another challenge: winning over ordinary Singaporeans.
And they will judge the population road map not on the logic of its projections but on their own experience of policies as felt on the ground.
In the end, that figure of 6.9 million will matter less and less if the Government delivers on its pledge to make life better for the Singaporean core.
[email protected]
WHITE PAPER ON POPULATION
Population road map: It's the day-to-day journey that matters
Published on Jan 30, 2013
By Lydia Lim Deputy Political Editor, NEWS ANALYSIS
IT IS an uphill task to convince a broad swathe of Singaporeans that a future population of 6.9 million will fit nicely on this small island, given the current congestion on trains and buses and a housing shortfall of recent memory.
It is also easy to mistake that figure as a target, and to misunderstand the Government's White Paper as a road map to get to 6.9 million people. But 6.9 million is neither the Government's starting nor end point.
"Our goal is simple," Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong wrote on Facebook yesterday. "To ensure Singapore continues thriving, for the sake of our younger generation."
What is less simple is the how. And that is what the White Paper grapples with.
The three challenges are: a shortage of Singaporean babies, creating enough good jobs for Singaporeans and a good quality of life. Now, how do these add up to a projected population of 6.5 million to 6.9 million by 2030?
Let's start with babies.
Singapore's total fertility rate (TFR) has been below replacement level for three decades. At the current TFR of 1.2, the citizen population will start to shrink from 2030.
The White Paper proposes more baby boosters to encourage marriage and parenthood. The Government will bump up its spending on this from $1.6 billion to $2 billion a year.
Singapore will also take in 15,000 to 25,000 new citizens a year to prevent this shrinkage, so "we don't die out like the dinosaurs", as one civil servant put it. As for permanent residents, it will take in 30,000 a year to ensure a pool of suitable potential citizens.
As most of these immigrants will likely be of working age, they will help support the growing number of elderly Singaporeans who have retired.
Next, job creation.
By 2030, two in three Singaporean workers will be professionals, managers, executives and technicians - up from half today. It will be a challenge to create enough good jobs to satisfy the aspirations of this well-educated group, and high-quality jobs for the rest of the workforce.
The White Paper projects a growth rate for the economy that the Government considers realistic and sustainable. That's 3 to 5 per cent a year up to 2020 and 2 to 3 per cent a year thereafter, up to 2030. To keep growing, Singapore will need to remain open to foreigners. The Government is unequivocal on that point.
These foreign workers will do lower-level service jobs that Singaporeans are not keen on. They will build new homes and train lines. They will help families take care of their elderly members.
A smaller number will be here to set up and run new industries.
To have enough people to do all these things, the White Paper estimates Singapore will need 1.8 million to 1.9 million foreigners by 2020, and 2.3 million to 2.5 million foreigners by 2030. Most of them will be in the workforce. Some will be students and the rest dependants of those working here. Add up these three groups - citizens, PRs and foreigners - and one ends up with a population of up to 6.9 million by 2030.
The main purpose of putting down this figure is so the ministries in charge of building homes and train lines can plan and act ahead of demand.
The White Paper sets out how the Government intends to provide for Singaporeans young and old. If all goes as planned, the future may well turn out to be more vibrant than today, with good- quality jobs, a high quality of life and a nation that can still cohere with Singaporeans at the core.
The White Paper may be the end outcome of a consultation process. But it is really also the start of another challenge: winning over ordinary Singaporeans.
And they will judge the population road map not on the logic of its projections but on their own experience of policies as felt on the ground.
In the end, that figure of 6.9 million will matter less and less if the Government delivers on its pledge to make life better for the Singaporean core.
[email protected]