View Full Version : Singapore's population projected to hit 6.9m by 2030, with a Singaporean core
Source: http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/singapore/story/singapores-population-projected-hit-69m-2030-singaporean-core-20130129
By 2030, Singapore's population is projected to reach 6.5 to 6.9 million based on a government White Paper released on Tuesday.
This will comprise a resident population of 4.2 to 4.4 million, of which 3.6 to 3.8 million are citizens and the rest Permanent Residents. Non-residents will make up about 2.3 to 2.5 million by then.
To keep Singapore's citizen population from shrinking, Singapore will need 15,000 to 25,000 new citizens each year, assuming the current total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.2.
About 30,000 new Permanent Residents (PR) is needed to keep the PR population stable at 500,000 to 600,000.
These figures were unveiled by the National Population and Talent Division in the widely-anticipated White Paper, which sets out Singapore's population and immigration policies for the future.
The paper outlined three pillars for what it calls "a sustainable population for a dynamic Singapore":
1. A strong and cohesive society
2. A dynamic and vibrant economy
3. A high quality living environment
This will be achieved through efforts to support the family unit, create good jobs for Singaporeans and build a liveable city for all ages, said the paper.
It noted that Singapore is at a demographic crossroads - with more than 900,000 people from the 'baby boomer' generation turning 65 from now till 2030.
This means that while today two citizens enter the workforce for every citizen exiting, this ratio will drop to 0.7 citizens entering to one exiting by 2030.
The recommendations set out in the paper are the numbers needed to keep the citizen population from shrinking, said the report.
Source: http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/singapore/story/singapores-population-projected-hit-69m-2030-singaporean-core-20130129
By 2030, Singapore's population is projected to reach 6.5 to 6.9 million based on a government White Paper released on Tuesday.
This will comprise a resident population of 4.2 to 4.4 million, of which 3.6 to 3.8 million are citizens and the rest Permanent Residents. Non-residents will make up about 2.3 to 2.5 million by then.
To keep Singapore's citizen population from shrinking, Singapore will need 15,000 to 25,000 new citizens each year, assuming the current total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.2.
About 30,000 new Permanent Residents (PR) is needed to keep the PR population stable at 500,000 to 600,000.
These figures were unveiled by the National Population and Talent Division in the widely-anticipated White Paper, which sets out Singapore's population and immigration policies for the future.
The paper outlined three pillars for what it calls "a sustainable population for a dynamic Singapore":
1. A strong and cohesive society
2. A dynamic and vibrant economy
3. A high quality living environment
This will be achieved through efforts to support the family unit, create good jobs for Singaporeans and build a liveable city for all ages, said the paper.
It noted that Singapore is at a demographic crossroads - with more than 900,000 people from the 'baby boomer' generation turning 65 from now till 2030.
This means that while today two citizens enter the workforce for every citizen exiting, this ratio will drop to 0.7 citizens entering to one exiting by 2030.
The recommendations set out in the paper are the numbers needed to keep the citizen population from shrinking, said the report.
People waiting for durian to drop will have to wait long long.. Wait till 2030 :doh:
For those who say post CM7 is a small window of opportunity to buy, you're spot on! That means 100k increase in no. of people every year. Wow! Envy those who are holding 2nd or > property for rental purposes!
For those who say post CM7 is a small window of opportunity to buy, you're spot on! That means 100k increase in no. of people very year. Wow!
simple calculation is 25,000 houses every year.
buttercarp
29-01-13, 11:58
So the buying frrenzy will resume?
Govt has deliberately put the number below 7mil at 2030, but bulls will just grab anything they can grab to talk up the price.
6.5-6.9m by year 2030, the pace of increase of population per year is far fewer than the upcoming supply per year, at least in the next few years.
See previous thread:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=16591
And with ABSD of CM7, the price pressure is apparently on the downside.
I know bulls with vested interest will debate or even attack, but, please face the numbers and face the downside.
http://www.asiaone.com/News/Latest%2BNews/Singapore/Story/A1Story20130129-398617.html
Below is an excerpt from the executive summary segment of the Population White Paper published by the National Population and Talent Division.
Three Pillars for a Sustainable Population for a Dynamic Singapore
A sustainable population for Singapore rests on three key pillars.
First, Singaporeans form the core of our society and the heart of our nation. To be a strong and cohesive society, we must have a strong Singaporean core.
Strong families are the bedrock of our society, through which we pass on our values and sense of belonging from one generation to the next.
We may have diverse geographical and ethnic backgrounds, but we are all Singaporean because we share certain key values and aspirations, including meritocracy, a fair and just society, and respect for one another's culture within a broad common space where all interact and bond.
Second, our population and workforce must support a dynamic economy that can steadily create good jobs and opportunities to meet Singaporeans' hopes and aspirations.
Many Asian cities are modernising rapidly, and catching up on us. Singapore must continue to develop and upgrade to remain a key node in the network of global cities, a vibrant place where jobs and opportunities are created.
A dynamic economy will provide us with more resources and room to pursue inclusive growth strategies to benefit all segments of our society.
Third, we must continue to keep Singapore a good home. Our city must continue to be well-managed, well-planned, and well-developed.
We must meet the infrastructure needs of a changing population and economy in a timely and efficient way, while preserving and enhancing a green environment, so that Singapore can be a unique, bustling 'City in a Garden'.
Maintaining a Strong Singaporean Core
In 2011, our Total Fertility Rate (TFR) was 1.20. It has been below the replacement rate of 2.1 for more than three decades. Low and falling TFR is not unique to Singapore. Many developed Western countries, and East Asian societies such as Hong Kong, Japan and Taiwan, suffer the same problem.
To help Singaporeans achieve their dreams to marry and have children, we introduced a Marriage & Parenthood Package in 2001, and enhanced it in 2004 and 2008.
We are further enhancing the Package this year to: (a) enable couples to get housing faster and more easily, so that they can marry and start families earlier; (b) provide support for conception and delivery costs; (c) further defray child-raising costs, including healthcare costs; (d) enhance work-life measures to help working couples balance work and family commitments; (e) signal to fathers to play a bigger role through paternity and shared parental leave.
We will continue to welcome immigrants who can contribute to Singapore, share our values and integrate into our society. More Singaporeans are marrying non-Singaporeans. About 40 per cent of Singaporean marriages each year are between a Singaporean and a non-Singaporean - some 9,000 in 2011 alone. We do not expect our TFR to improve to the replacement rate of 2.1 in the short term. Taking in younger immigrants will help us top up the smaller cohorts of younger Singaporeans, and balance the ageing of our citizen population.
To stop our citizen population from shrinking, we will take in between 15,000 and 25,000 new citizens each year.
We will review this immigration rate from time to time, depending on the quality of applicants, our birth rates, and our changing needs.
Permanent residence is an intermediate status through which foreigners take up citizenship. It is meant for those who have a long-term stake in Singapore and intend to sink roots here.
We have tightened up significantly on the number of PRs granted each year. We have come down from a high of 79,000 new PRs in 2008 to about 30,000 each year currently. We plan to maintain the current pace. This will keep a stable PR population of between 0.5 and 0.6 million, and ensure a pool of suitable potential citizens.
We will continue to encourage and help new citizens integrate into our society. We would like them to adapt to our way of life, while enriching the diverse experiences, skills and capabilities in our society.
With this controlled immigration rate, the citizen population is projected to be between 3.6 and 3.8 million by 2030. Together with the PR population of 0.5 to 0.6 million, this gives a resident population (comprising citizens and PRs) of between 4.2 and 4.4 million in 2030, depending on birth rates, immigration and life expectancy.
Creating Good Opportunities for Singaporeans
The Singaporean workforce is becoming progressively better qualified, as better educated young Singaporeans start work, and existing workers upgrade themselves through continuing education and training. We anticipate a significant upgrading of the Singaporean workforce towards Professional, Managerial, Executive and Technical (PMET) jobs.
By 2030, the number of Singaporeans in PMET jobs is expected to rise by nearly 50 per cent to about 1.25 million compared to 850,000 today, while the number in non-PMET jobs is expected to fall by over 20 per cent to 650,000 compared to 850,000 today. Overall, two-thirds of Singaporeans will hold PMET jobs in 2030, compared to about half today.
We will continue to provide opportunities to non- PMET Singaporeans, and help them to upgrade and upskill, as well as ensure that they are treated fairly and their pay recognises the increases in their contribution.
To create good jobs and opportunities for Singaporeans, we need a dynamic economy and businesses that produce goods and services not just for Singapore, but for the region and the world. Our economy must stay ahead of other Asian cities, so that we can provide them with the high-end goods and services that they need but are not yet able to produce themselves.
Our businesses will need a workforce with the full range of skills, backgrounds and experiences who can kick-start high valueadded emerging sectors, and understand regional and international markets. This requires a complementary workforce of Singaporeans and foreigners.
Foreign workers can provide skills and expertise, as well as market knowledge and access, to enable Singapore-based companies to create new products and penetrate new markets to serve the region and beyond.
Foreign workers help to create the right balance of skilled and less-skilled workers in the overall workforce. As Singaporeans upgrade themselves into higher-skilled jobs, more of the lower-skilled jobs will have to be done by foreigners.
Foreign workers also provide healthcare, eldercare and domestic services to support our ageing population and working families. They build infrastructure and housing, and do conservancy and maintenance work. They thus enable Singaporeans to enjoy good social and municipal services at a moderate cost, contributing to our quality of life.
Foreign workers enable businesses to expand quickly and flexibly during economic booms. They also buffer Singaporean workers from job losses during downturns.
We thus continue to need a significant number of foreign workers to complement the Singaporean core in the workforce.
However, we cannot allow in an unlimited number of foreign workers. We do not want to be overwhelmed by more foreign workers than we can absorb, or to expand our total population beyond what our island is able to accommodate. Too many foreign workers will also depress wages and reduce the incentive for firms to upgrade workers and raise productivity.
For the rest of this decade, as the growth of our Singaporean workforce slows, our total workforce growth will also slow to about 1 per cent to 2 per cent per year, half of the 3.3 per cent per year over the past 30 years.
Beyond 2020, workforce growth will slow down further to about 1 per cent per year as the population ages and the Singaporean workforce starts to plateau.
We must thus rely less on foreign labour, use our resources better, and redouble efforts to improve productivity. That is the only sustainable way to grow the economy and raise real wages. However, over time as our economy matures and undergoes major demographic shifts, sustaining high productivity growth will also become harder.
Up to 2020, if we can achieve 2 per cent to 3 per cent productivity growth per year (which is an ambitious stretch target), and maintain overall workforce growth at 1 per cent to 2 per cent, then we can get 3 per cent to 5 per cent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on average. But over the whole period, GDP growth is more likely to average 3 per cent to 4 per cent, though we may exceed that in good years.
Beyond 2020, Singapore will continue to enjoy good prospects so long as we remain competitive and are able to plug into Asia's growth. We may see GDP growth of between 2 per cent and 3 per cent per year from 2020 to 2030. However, actual economic growth will depend on many factors: our external environment, our productivity and workforce growth, how dynamic and creative Singaporeans are, and how well we work together, compared to people in other cities.
High Quality Living Environment
We want Singapore to continue to be one of the best places to live in the world - a city for all age groups, and a country we are proud to call home.
We will invest in our infrastructure and create high quality urban spaces, offering convenient access to amenities, transport nodes and services. Our rail network will expand by about 100 km to a total length of 280 km by 2021. We will build more public housing, hospitals and care facilities. With new parks and park connectors, Singaporeans will continue to enjoy accessible and interconnected green spaces all around Singapore.
We will continue to explore new technology and innovative solutions to expand and optimise our land use. The National Research Foundation has allocated $135 million for research and development into land and liveability, focusing on creating new space cost-effectively and optimising the use of space.
By planning our infrastructure developments well in advance, and implementing them in a timely and effective way, we can overcome our current strains and congestion, and accommodate a larger population.
Population Trajectories
The roadmap in this White Paper puts us on possible population trajectories to meet the present and future needs of Singapore and Singaporeans.
Singapore's total population of residents and nonresidents in 2020 is projected to be between 5.8 and 6 million, depending on our fertility trends, life expectancy, as well as our social and economic needs. The resident population (comprising citizens and PRs) is projected to be 4 to 4.1 million, of which citizens alone will make up 3.5 to 3.6 million.
By 2030, Singapore's total population could range between 6.5 and 6.9 million. There is a wider band of uncertainty, and the actual population will again depend on factors such as our fertility trends and life expectancy, the global and regional environment, our economic structure and social needs. The resident population (comprising citizens and PRs) is projected to be 4.2 to 4.4 million, of which citizens alone will make up 3.6 to 3.8 million.
Our Gen Y and Gen X are still not producing enough.....
any racial / religion breakdown of the desirable new citizens and PRs ?
can Singapore revoked new citizens' Singapore citizenship?
How will it effect voting patterns in future GE?
are these new citizens natural PAP voters?
Why project until 2030 only?
Why not 2050, 2100?
I am pretty sure if project until 2020, the population intake is smaller than compare to projected to 2030.
looks like once you become a PR, it is easy to become a citizen.
afterall import 30k PR a year, 15k-25k citizens a year, ratio 1:2 to 1:1 conversion.
From Hardwarezone
http://sphotos-h.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/536978_10151246282012934_1267819086_n.jpg
http://www.todayonline.com/sites/default/files/styles/photo_gallery_image/public/13838409_0.JPG
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If our gen x and early gen y produced enough, instead of kpkb, there will be no need for such drastic measures.
Another simple way of looking at it, is to look at the growth rate of population.
The surprisingly low 6.5-6.9m population target at 2030, implies an annual compound growth rate of less than 1.2%~1.5% (note, one should use annual compound rate), this compares to population growth of 2.4% in the last three years.
So, it is really a negative number. Government is now very cautious.
Interesting picture that contradicts with the content
Editor beh song too
http://www.singapolitics.sg/sites/default/files/whitepaper.png
I think CM7 is a preamble to this paper. It requires so much cash upfront. Not many can afford. Those who can still afford, please grab whatever is left. Prices will not drop even though more flats will be build and more lands will be sold. :scared-1:
Another simple way of looking at it, is to look at the growth rate of population.
The surprisingly low 6.5-6.9m population target at 2030, implies an annual compound growth rate of less than 1.2%~1.5% (note, one should use annual compound rate), this compares to population growth of 2.4% in the last three years.
So, it is really a negative number. Government is now very cautious.
Haha what kind of economist you are who don't know the effect of compounding?
They are fooling you with stats. Look at absolute numbers.
Current supply is just enough for population now. With 100k more per year :doh:
No need to argue lah.. Just keep searching and searching till 2030 and you will know the answer.
http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=49161:pm-lee-admits-govt-lacked-20/20-foresight&Itemid=2
Channel News Asia http://youtu.be/gUQtGv-037Y
PM Lee admits govt lacked 20/20 foresight
SINGAPORE- Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has admitted the government did not have 20/20 foresight, resulting in problems with inadequate infrastructure in the country.
He was speaking at the "Singapore Perspectives" conference on governance organised by the Institute of Policy Studies on Monday.
Acknowledging the problems of insufficient housing and inefficient transportation network, Mr Lee pointed out that the government was blind-sided by the outcome of some international events.
He elaborated that in 2000 and 2001, the 9/11 terrorism attack on the United States plunged countries into recession. Singapore dealt with a slow economy with minimum population growth and local housing prices went down.
But by 2005 and 2006, Mr Lee said the mood changed and the economy started picking up.
So, he said, the government did what it thought would have been appropriate then. It decided to make up for lost time by growing the population and boosting the economy.
He acknowledged that infrastructure like housing and transport didn't keep up with that growth.
Mr Lee said: "I decided that we should try and make up for lost time because you want the economy to grow. You want Singapore to make progress and you don't know how long the sun is going to shine. As it turned out, the sun remained shining for longer than we expected. So the population grew faster than we expected, our infrastructure didn't keep up.
"Should we have given ourselves more buffer and said let's build and be ready? I think in retrospect, clearly we could have done more. Could we have predicted that we would have five years where the economy would grow brilliantly and our population would increase so rapidly? I don't think we could easily have said that.
"Should we then have said, 'I didn't plan for this infrastructure, let's tell the businesses to go away and let's forget about the growth, we don't need the IRs, we don't need these extra jobs, we just stay where we were'. I think that would be very risky. So we went ahead.
"The strains showed up. It's quite instructive how they showed up. They didn't show up gradually, progressively but quite suddenly. When the global financial crisis came at the end of the decade, 2007/2008, we expected to go for a very deep dive.
"In fact in one quarter, we had minus 10 percent growth. Nobody talked about house prices, there was no shortage. HDB - we watched the market every day, the resale market was dead but we did the right thing with our Jobs Credit and other measures. We avoided a bullet, the world economy recovered faster than expected.
"In the middle of 2009, the wind changed...those of you in business, you would remember that in the course of two weeks, during one or two private property launches, somehow the wind changed. It's like the spring breeze touched your face and the market was off. By August, we were thinking of measures to cool things down and we've been trying to cool things down ever since.
"So we lacked that 20/20 foresight. Next time, we will try to do better, certainly to have a bigger buffer and not to cut things so fine. But I think it's very difficult to know, 10 years from now, how many you will need.
"Even if you know how many persons there will be in Singapore, you can't say how many houses they will need. Will they buy it? Or will they say, 'oh, I'm not certain because the economy is not looking good or the politics are not certain, well, I'll hold off'? But when the market goes up, it goes up with a vengeance and we've paid the political price, we learn from it."
In the 90-minute question and answer session, Prime Minister Lee also tackled a number of issues which included whether the wide-ranging social nets in Singapore would encourage citizens to become more dependent and if Singapore needs more space for discussion.
Mr Lee is of the view that the government needs to do more but he wants the government to be helping from behind the scenes, as opposed to Singaporeans expecting the government to jump in all the time.
On why there is still a need to moderate social space involving social media, for example, Mr Lee said the online community in particular is not moderating itself.
Extreme views are put out and responses and disapprovals are also extreme. So this cannot be left to itself.
Mr Lee said: "We don't believe the community in the social space, especially online, moderates itself. It doesn't happen anywhere in the world.
"You have views going to extremes and when people respond to their views, they may respond in an extreme way, and when people decide to disapprove of something which was inappropriate, the disapproval can also happen in an extreme way.
"It's in the nature of the medium, the way the interactions work and that's the reason why we think it cannot be completely left by itself."
- CNA
Oh wdf, the percentage increase of non-residents in 2020 is soo much higher compared to residents/citizens
actually, i am puzzled.
based on 80:20 rule, 20% rich and 80% poor.
and if government import only rich citizens, then the current marginal rich SCs would be pushed down to become 80% poor?
Population growth is one thing.
Where are the jobs growth coming from?
actually, i am puzzled.
based on 80:20 rule, 20% rich and 80% poor.
and if government import only rich citizens, then the current marginal rich SCs would be pushed down to become 80% poor?
Population growth is one thing.
Where are the jobs growth coming from?
Absorbed... they have lots of companies... we all know :doh:
Ok I need time to digest this. If you have already come up with some analysis, please contribute.
actually, i am puzzled.
based on 80:20 rule, 20% rich and 80% poor.
and if government import only rich citizens, then the current marginal rich SCs would be pushed down to become 80% poor?
Population growth is one thing.
Where are the jobs growth coming from?
This is actually worrying as more Singapore graduates (degree holders) will be under-employed to do the left-over and low paying jobs.
The previous mistake was importing too many blue collar workers AND giving them PR and citizenship, AND allowing them to bring their parents over AND indirectly adding to the aging population. The next mistake was to address this imbalance by reducing the number of blue collar workers by reducing quota and increasing levy, thus forcing prices to go up for the man in the street and creating barriers for company expansion or delay projects (including our properties TOP). Following this was the mistake to increase in quality of the foreign workers and thus allowing them to compete for the same jobs with our graduates.
Interesting to see what is going to happen in the next few years.
any racial / religion breakdown of the desirable new citizens and PRs ?
can Singapore revoked new citizens' Singapore citizenship?
How will it effect voting patterns in future GE?
are these new citizens natural PAP voters?
Why project until 2030 only?
Why not 2050, 2100?
I am pretty sure if project until 2020, the population intake is smaller than compare to projected to 2030.
looks like once you become a PR, it is easy to become a citizen.
afterall import 30k PR a year, 15k-25k citizens a year, ratio 1:2 to 1:1 conversion.
aiya you and i also know what. if you read IPO prospectus and look at the forward projection, you will also say bull shit right??? any projection beyond 2030 will be unbelievable and subject to so much variables in the global perspective. would it even be meaningful to do it?
This is actually worrying as more Singapore graduates (degree holders) will be under-employed to do the left-over and low paying jobs.
The previous mistake was importing too many blue collar workers AND giving them PR and citizenship, AND allowing them to bring their parents over AND indirectly adding to the aging population. The next mistake was to address this imbalance by reducing the number of blue collar workers by reducing quota and increasing levy, thus forcing prices to go up for the man in the street and creating barriers for company expansion or delay projects (including our properties TOP). Following this was the mistake to increase in quality of the foreign workers and thus allowing them to compete for the same jobs with our graduates.
Interesting to see what is going to happen in the next few years.
We shall not be protecting our young ones. They shall learn how to fight for their place, this is the price of globalisation. It is not only here, in HK and everywhere.
aiya you and i also know what. if you read IPO prospectus and look at the forward projection, you will also say bull shit right??? any projection beyond 2030 will be unbelievable and subject to so much variables in the global perspective. would it even be meaningful to do it?
if they can project/plan population until 2030, i am pretty sure they can plan hdb/private property needed until 2030 also. but why figure for property only until 2016?
actually, i am puzzled.
based on 80:20 rule, 20% rich and 80% poor.
and if government import only rich citizens, then the current marginal rich SCs would be pushed down to become 80% poor?
Population growth is one thing.
Where are the jobs growth coming from?
To have companies to come here u need a mulit facet work forces. from driver to the CEO. Without a any workforce there wont be companies. Chicken n Egg issue.
Egg 1st or Chicken 1st? Its a balancing act.
We shall not be protecting our young ones. They shall learn how to fight for their place, this is the price of globalisation. It is not only here, in HK and everywhere.
You are right! Hopefully, more people will think in the same way as you!
We shall not be protecting our young ones. They shall learn how to fight for their place, this is the price of globalisation. It is not only here, in HK and everywhere.
Easy to fight if there is a base camp (affordable education, HDB and cost of living) to launch attack. Not easy if the base camp needs a life-time to set up (i.e. pay for) or worry about.
simple thinking:
residents increased from 3.82 to 4.4m, 0.58m increase, assuming family of four, both husband and wife working, need 145k new jobs.
non residents increased from 1.49 to 2.5m, 1.01m increase. since low end workers cannot bring in family members, need 1million new jobs.
total jobs need to be created from 2012 to 2030 is 1.145million jobs.
where is jobs coming from?
a 3rd IR provide 30k jobs.
and low end manufacturing seems to be on way out?
We shall not be protecting our young ones. They shall learn how to fight for their place, this is the price of globalisation. It is not only here, in HK and everywhere.
your words doesnt seem to match your deeds.
for example, arent you protecting you children by setting up trust, to protect their inheritance from "scheming" spouses? :)
would you rather leave all your wealth to charities, and leave your children to fight for their place.
bakasa2002
29-01-13, 13:44
Nx generation w/o rich parents will be renting? Like HK, Japan?
Nx generation w/o rich parents will be renting? Like HK, Japan?
in japan, it's the parents burdening the children with multi-generational loans :scared-1: :scared-1: :scared-1: :scared-1:
but that's history
Wild Falcon
29-01-13, 14:18
Don't be fooled lah. Why is there a need to grow population by close to 3% per year - probably one of the highest growth rate in the developed world? Why add 100,000 new people per year? Surely 1+% growth rate is enough?
Our Gen Y and Gen X are still not producing enough.....
Wild Falcon
29-01-13, 14:21
Looks like the floodgates for PR and new citizens is now wide open. HUAT AH!
Looks like we are on our way to be New York of Asia!
HUAT!
Huat to all property owners who leverage on rental income.
The proposal is to take in 30,000 new permanent residents (PR) every year which will keep the PR population stable at about half a million. Then, from this pool, take in 15,000 to 25,000 new citizens each year, to stop the citizen population from shrinking.
Don't be fooled lah. Why is there a need to grow population by close to 3% per year - probably one of the highest growth rate in the developed world? Why add 100,000 new people per year? Surely 1+% growth rate is enough?
its 30K a year not 100K.
Want to be landlord need to Pay premium now. 6.9 million will not be buying only one property. Some will have 2 or more properties. It's never enough property.
puffer_fish
29-01-13, 15:30
this is excellent news, time to dive in:cheers5:
puffer_fish
29-01-13, 15:32
its 30K a year not 100K.
may i ask, 30k is base on PR, the rest of the 70k would be visitors / PR to be/ relatives of PR????????????:beats-me-man:
there shld put a number to how many will be leaving Spore...
got input sure have output
there shld put a number to how many will be leaving Spore...
got input sure have output
total population numbers already give u the net figures (input exceeds output).
total population numbers already give u the net figures (input exceeds output).
ok, but by 2030. which is long long way. Many also "tong tong chang""....
is 30k a lot ?
let's put this in perspective
1 HDB Block
20 storeys
6 units per storey
120 units per block
4 persons per unit
480 persons per block
that gives us 63 blocks, which is about a tenth of a small town
let's put this in perspective
1 HDB Block
20 storeys
6 units per storey
120 units per block
4 persons per unit
480 persons per block
that gives us 63 blocks, which is about a tenth of a small town
alright, seems small. with this 30k, gov shld screen for better quality PR. Those can pay 5k above for rental.. hee hee
let's put this in perspective
1 HDB Block
20 storeys
6 units per storey
120 units per block
4 persons per unit
480 persons per block
that gives us 63 blocks, which is about a tenth of a small town
most of us feel the white paper is underplaying the real underlying numbers.
Wow Pian oh! The next Hong Kong leow. Living in cages. Mai. Tu Leow. But too late for MTB. ABSD sunk the boat. So must wait a while. Don't worry. Boat will still come back again, be patient oob
alright, seems small. with this 30k, gov shld screen for better quality PR. Those can pay 5k above for rental.. hee hee
huh? small? u do realize in 10 years, the numbers translate to an entire new town of foreigners :scared-1: :scared-1:
Can have Pinoy town, India town, PRC town, etc etc
people only interested to see population growth ?
not only to know where is the growth in jobs?
because, if can spot, you can tell your children which area to study.
all data from the white paper.
citizens.
2011: 850k pmet + 850k non-pmet = 1.7m jobs
2030: 1250k pmet + 650k non-pmet = 1.9m jobs
need to create 200k jobs for citizens
non-resident
2011 population: 1.49mil
S-pass 9% = 134.1k
E-pass 12% = 178.8k
domestic worker 13% = 193.7k
work permit 45% = 670.5k
total jobs non-resident 2011 = 1.18mil
2012 population: 2.5mil
BIG assumption: same ratio
S-pass 9% = 225.1k
E-pass 12% = 300k
domestic worker 13% = 325k
work permit 45% = 1.125mil
total jobs non-resident 2030 = 1.98mil
need to create 800k jobs for non-resident
so total additional jobs to be created for citizen + non-residents = 200k + 800k = 1million jobs.
The white paper didnt tell us which industries is supposed to provide all these jobs.
people only interested to see population growth ?
not only to know where is the growth in jobs?
because, if can spot, you can tell your children which area to study.
all data from the white paper.
citizens.
2011: 850k pmet + 850k non-pmet = 1.7m jobs
2030: 1250k pmet + 650k non-pmet = 1.9m jobs
need to create 200k jobs for citizens
non-resident
2011 population: 1.49mil
S-pass 9% = 134.1k
E-pass 12% = 178.8k
domestic worker 13% = 193.7k
work permit 45% = 670.5k
total jobs non-resident 2011 = 1.18mil
2012 population: 2.5mil
BIG assumption: same ratio
S-pass 9% = 225.1k
E-pass 12% = 300k
domestic worker 13% = 325k
work permit 45% = 1.125mil
total jobs non-resident 2030 = 1.98mil
need to create 800k jobs for non-resident
so total additional jobs to be created for citizen + non-residents = 200k + 800k = 1million jobs.
The white paper didnt tell us which industries is supposed to provide all these jobs.
this is my main concern. there must be a radical shift in the kind of industries here, probably something new that is labor intensive is brewing on the horizon.
huh? small? u do realize in 10 years, the numbers translate to an entire new town of foreigners :scared-1: :scared-1:
Can have Pinoy town, India town, PRC town, etc etc
but you say small town in 10 yrs time.
small town is ok not another Tampines...
jacelynchia
29-01-13, 17:50
This population mark came as no surprise.
Just look at miltonia close, 10 land sites reserved for future residential.
This population mark came as no surprise.
Just look at miltonia close, 10 land sites reserved for future residential.
Just wondering which foreigner would be willing to buy our properties here paying 3%+15% in taxes? a normal 1m apartment would amount to $174.6k in taxes alone! :scared-4:
jacelynchia
29-01-13, 18:21
Just wondering which foreigner would be willing to buy our properties here paying 3%+15% in taxes? a normal 1m apartment would amount to $174.6k in taxes alone! :scared-4:
Haha, definitely not at the moment.
Hard to say in the future, maybe the CM will change and loosen up to attract foreigners to buy given this situation in the long run.
But anyway the appeal is definitely there for foreigners, I do know some foreigners and spoken to them.
The verdict is they simply love Singapore, and they are impressed with kiasu-ism and like the place and love the food.
puffer_fish
29-01-13, 18:33
This i have to agree with you
My tenant keep on harping the fact that it so dynamic in asia and guess if he were to return back to uk There really nothing much for him.
Personally i think he feels that being ang moh here can smoke his way through cos he really think his talents is something local lack:tongue3:
Just wondering which foreigner would be willing to buy our properties here paying 3%+15% in taxes? a normal 1m apartment would amount to $174.6k in taxes alone! :scared-4:
Errr...foreigners under the FTA are accorded the same privileges as SC so as long they buy just one property, they can apply for ABSD remission and pay normal SD like Singaporean...
Errr...foreigners under the FTA are accorded the same privileges as SC so as long they buy just one property, they can apply for ABSD remission and pay normal SD like Singaporean...
Of coz this everybody knows here!
Tks for highlighting anyway.. :cheers6:
Of coz this everybody knows here!
Tks for highlighting anyway.. :cheers6:
No prob...you did ask which foreigners would still buy so I just brought up an example..US, Swiss and the nordic nationals as they are not so adversely impacted by CM7:D
SGD1m property in s'pore for a mainland chinese buyer is almost RMB1m he has to pay in taxes alone....
This is enough to deter them away...
That is cheap to China businessman in real terms ...
You really have no idea the way business are conducted over there and the money rolling around ... Many have benefitted explosively when china open up their market
That is cheap to China businessman in real terms ...
You really have no idea the way business are conducted over there and the money rolling around ... Many have benefitted explosively when china open up their market
It may be cheap to some of them but they are also not stupid or are so willing to throw away money like that.
Don't underestimate the Chinaman, they are very shrewd people.
2 years back govt was curbing foreigners becoming citizens because of GE. Now full force welcome them back. This naturally justifies their CM of imposing super high ABSD to foreigners. All become citizens so automatically qualify to buy properties with much lower BSD or ABSD... :cheers1:
absolutely! ... they just need one or two members of the family ...
2 years back govt was curbing foreigners becoming citizens because of GE. Now full force welcome them back. This naturally justifies their CM of imposing super high ABSD to foreigners. All become citizens so automatically qualify to buy properties with much lower BSD or ABSD... :cheers1:
Wild Falcon
29-01-13, 20:03
Population growth of 100k per year at least. Or else how to grow from 5 million to 6 million in 7 years right? PR + New Citizen + foreigners who are not PRs lah. Not all foreigners are PR leh. Dunno how you derive the population growth number of 30k. If add 30k per year won't hit 6 million by 2020 lah.
its 30K a year not 100K.
Wild Falcon
29-01-13, 20:08
Also dunno how the the white paper come to a conclusion that "optimal" Singaporean to foreigner ratio should be 50:50. I think we will lose our identity very soon. Only know how to use population and construction to drive GDP. How creative.
any racial / religion breakdown of the desirable new citizens and PRs ?
can Singapore revoked new citizens' Singapore citizenship?
How will it effect voting patterns in future GE?
are these new citizens natural PAP voters?
Why project until 2030 only?
Why not 2050, 2100?
I am pretty sure if project until 2020, the population intake is smaller than compare to projected to 2030.
looks like once you become a PR, it is easy to become a citizen.
afterall import 30k PR a year, 15k-25k citizens a year, ratio 1:2 to 1:1 conversion.
maybe u should ask for projection 3030?
Population growth of 100k per year at least. Or else how to grow from 5 million to 6 million in 7 years right? PR + New Citizen + foreigners who are not PRs lah. Not all foreigners are PR leh. Dunno how you derive the population growth number of 30k. If add 30k per year won't hit 6 million by 2020 lah.They are looking at 500k rise in population from 2012 to 2020. At 25k new citizens plus 35k own citizens, total 60k addition annually, over 8 years should yield 480k so about right... :rolleyes:
But they talk real big.. will the public transport system hold such a population increase? Road infrastructure is the next big thing with traffic jams everywhere, its no longer a matter of curbing with ERP and COEs. How do we expect say 1mil people but only give 10 cars for them to share? The number of vehicles must rise along but our roads are maybe for lack of a better word, 'insufficient'... :scared-5:
Wild Falcon
29-01-13, 20:26
I think you missed out the foreigner foreigner, i.e. foreigners who are neither PR nor new citizen. Today (2013) population is 5.3 million. To reach 6 million in by 2020 (7 years) means add roughly 100k per year right? Of course the 100k is split between imported PRs, imported new citizens, imported foreigners and new-born Singaporeans less dead Singaporeans.
Whatever it is, whether add 60k or 100k, the numbers are stil significant. Looks like LKY's views that 6 million population is already bursting at the beams is not shared by his son :)
They are looking at 500k rise in population from 2012 to 2020. At 25k new citizens plus 35k own citizens, total 60k addition annually, over 8 years should yield 480k so about right... :rolleyes:
But they talk real big.. will the public transport system hold such a population increase? Road infrastructure is the next big thing with traffic jams everywhere, its no longer a matter of curbing with ERP and COEs. How do we expect say 1mil people but only give 10 cars for them to share? The number of vehicles must rise along but our roads are maybe for lack of a better word, 'insufficient'... :scared-5:
Population growth of 100k per year at least. Or else how to grow from 5 million to 6 million in 7 years right? PR + New Citizen + foreigners who are not PRs lah. Not all foreigners are PR leh. Dunno how you derive the population growth number of 30k. If add 30k per year won't hit 6 million by 2020 lah.
ur 100K include local citizen.
the projected no.
15-25K new citizen per year.
30K PR~per year.
so ur 100K projection means 45K-55K will be core citizen.
this is the no.s in the report.
dont need to care how many citizens, PR foriegners etc...
The cold hard facts....
5.3m to 6.9m = 1.6 million.... in 17 years....
94,118 per year increase in population...
Lets assume that in these 3 years since GE, all the land and units released in meant to catch up with past shortfall in housing units....
So moving forward from this year gahmen need to release 94/3.5(avg family unit size) = 26,857 units...
So from now on, we need to build at least 13k units of HDB and 13k units of condo units....
So lets see how many units are the gahmen releasing for 2013 onwards...
They say they are building ahead of demand so lets see....
you have to include marriages as well
http://app.rom.gov.sg/resources/rom_statistics.asp
approx 20k per year.
look at hdb built and you will find backlog.
dont need to care how many citizens, PR foriegners etc...
The cold hard facts....
5.3m to 6.9m = 1.6 million.... in 17 years....
94,118 per year increase in population...
Lets assume that in these 3 years since GE, all the land and units released in meant to catch up with past shortfall in housing units....
So moving forward from this year gahmen need to release 94/3.5(avg family unit size) = 26,857 units...
So from now on, we need to build at least 13k units of HDB and 13k units of condo units....
So lets see how many units are the gahmen releasing for 2013 onwards...
They say they are building ahead of demand so lets see....
That is cheap to China businessman in real terms ...
You really have no idea the way business are conducted over there and the money rolling around ... Many have benefitted explosively when china open up their market
cheap does not mean need to buy... It need to be worth the money.. They need to be in control of the price.. with the government coming out every now and then to spoil market... They really must think twice..
They are looking at 500k rise in population from 2012 to 2020. At 25k new citizens plus 35k own citizens, total 60k addition annually, over 8 years should yield 480k so about right... :rolleyes:
But they talk real big.. will the public transport system hold such a population increase? Road infrastructure is the next big thing with traffic jams everywhere, its no longer a matter of curbing with ERP and COEs. How do we expect say 1mil people but only give 10 cars for them to share? The number of vehicles must rise along but our roads are maybe for lack of a better word, 'insufficient'... :scared-5:
I guess solution would be
1) more MRT
2) new CBDs.
Jurong, north, changi business need to be developed further to scatter the traffic and people.
May be we would have vertical living concept.. upstairs residential ,downstairs offices.. no need for commuting :D
PropertyNewbie
29-01-13, 21:07
Grab freehold property now!
Wild Falcon
29-01-13, 21:13
I think the question is? Do we really need to do this? I know our government will always say if we do not grow our population rapidly our economy will collapse. Scare tactics. So instead of growing by 90k or 100k per year, we slow down to say 20k per year, would our economy really collapse? What about other countries who do not take in that much foreigners? Why are they surviving? I know our Minister's pay is tied to GDP, so its not surprising the easiest way to increase GDP is to import people. I think now they tell us the "optimal" SG to foreigner ratio is 50:50. I'm not surprised next year we will be psychoed to think the SG: foreigner ratio should be 30:70. And our population target is like moving goal post. Used to be only 6 million, now close to 7 million. I suspect the 6.9 million is rounding error to 7 million, like 1.99 to make it look less bad.
I guess solution would be
1) more MRT
2) new CBDs.
Jurong, north, changi business need to be developed further to scatter the traffic and people.
May be we would have vertical living concept.. upstairs residential ,downstairs offices.. no need for commuting :D
near to 2030, the most valued property will no longer be those nearest to MRT, but those in quiet and peaceful corners as everybody will be fed up with crowds of people
If i recall correctly, next target group is from Sri Lanka and Philippines. Our miw will have open doors for them but still have to meet the current P1, P2, S pass etc, requirement.
any racial / religion breakdown of the desirable new citizens and PRs ?
can Singapore revoked new citizens' Singapore citizenship?
How will it effect voting patterns in future GE?
are these new citizens natural PAP voters?
Why project until 2030 only?
Why not 2050, 2100?
I am pretty sure if project until 2020, the population intake is smaller than compare to projected to 2030.
looks like once you become a PR, it is easy to become a citizen.
afterall import 30k PR a year, 15k-25k citizens a year, ratio 1:2 to 1:1 conversion.
near to 2030, the most valued property will no longer be those nearest to MRT, but those in quiet and peaceful corners as everybody will be fed up with crowds of people
U mean JB? In SG maybe cemetery.
It is not just near mrt stn in future with so many new lines but which stn on which line. Property price will be higher that is near to more than one lines.
near to 2030, the most valued property will no longer be those nearest to MRT, but those in quiet and peaceful corners as everybody will be fed up with crowds of people
By 2030, for every > 65 years old, there will be only 2.1 people to support him/her.
Health Care is clearly an industry for your kids to join.
Thanks,
Richard
From Hardwarezone
http://sphotos-h.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/536978_10151246282012934_1267819086_n.jpg
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Yes, we need, not only 6.9m in 2030, but 12m population in 2050!
Why? Because we need a large enough population to build a stable and sustainable local economy that is not so volatile and shield the local people from massive job losses during recession (that is, recession will not be so severe if the local service-based economy is large enough vs export economy). :D
I think the question is? Do we really need to do this? I know our government will always say if we do not grow our population rapidly our economy will collapse. Scare tactics. So instead of growing by 90k or 100k per year, we slow down to say 20k per year, would our economy really collapse? What about other countries who do not take in that much foreigners? Why are they surviving? I know our Minister's pay is tied to GDP, so its not surprising the easiest way to increase GDP is to import people. I think now they tell us the "optimal" SG to foreigner ratio is 50:50. I'm not surprised next year we will be psychoed to think the SG: foreigner ratio should be 30:70. And our population target is like moving goal post. Used to be only 6 million, now close to 7 million. I suspect the 6.9 million is rounding error to 7 million, like 1.99 to make it look less bad.
I think the question is? Do we really need to do this? I know our government will always say if we do not grow our population rapidly our economy will collapse. Scare tactics. So instead of growing by 90k or 100k per year, we slow down to say 20k per year, would our economy really collapse? What about other countries who do not take in that much foreigners? Why are they surviving? I know our Minister's pay is tied to GDP, so its not surprising the easiest way to increase GDP is to import people. I think now they tell us the "optimal" SG to foreigner ratio is 50:50. I'm not surprised next year we will be psychoed to think the SG: foreigner ratio should be 30:70. And our population target is like moving goal post. Used to be only 6 million, now close to 7 million. I suspect the 6.9 million is rounding error to 7 million, like 1.99 to make it look less bad.
Answer lies in demography.. how many of us would be reaching retirement age by 2030?
How to support aging population? healthcare and social bills will increase with aging..
Probably damage for Singapore youth will even be more without immigration? just saying..don't know lah..am not economist
But if I am a young guy, I wouldn't want to stay in a place full of only oldies :hell-hath-no-fury:
Yes, we need, not only 6.9m in 2030, but 12m population in 2050!
Why? Because we need a large enough population to build a stable and sustainable local economy that is not so volatile and shield the local people from massive job losses during recession (that is, recession will not be so severe if the local service-based economy is large enough vs export economy). :D
I know u wld have retired in Switzerland n collecting rentals from ur SG prop. Great idea.
People waiting for durian to drop will have to wait long long.. Wait till 2030 :doh:
17 more years to go, don't know how many black swan events and not forgetting min 5 ge elections to kena hantum.
healthcare has always been the right industry to join.. other than education and food. because these are evergreen sectors and dun get hit by economic cycles.
The stated objective is to maintain a strong Singaporean core? Don't see this being validated. What does maintaining a strong Singaporean core mean? How? In ways ways? In what shape and form?
More new citizens mean more assurances for ruling party. It's a no brainer that new citizens overwhelmingly vote for ruling party.
The stated objective is to maintain a strong Singaporean core? Don't see this being validated. What does maintaining a strong Singaporean core mean? How? In ways ways? In what shape and form?
More new citizens mean more assurances for ruling party. It's a no brainer that new citizens overwhelmingly vote for ruling party.
Hope this no-brainer plan won't backfire.
by then , too late :cool:
Hope this no-brainer plan won't backfire.
by then , too late :cool:
born singaporean citizenship cannot be revoked.
new citizenship can be revoked. so that person will become stateless, as singapore doesnt allow dual citizenship. so how likely is it for new citizens to vote against PAP?
born singaporean citizenship cannot be revoked.
new citizenship can be revoked.
is this true?
born singaporean citizenship cannot be revoked.
new citizenship can be revoked. so that person will become stateless, as singapore doesnt allow dual citizenship. so how likely is it for new citizens to vote against PAP?
can lah, when you emigrate. this isn't hotel california leh
can lah, when you emigrate. this isn't hotel california leh
born singaporean cannot be revoke against your will - ie singapore/pap government cannot kick you out.
converted to singaporean - singapore/pap government can revoke your citizenship against your will.
born singaporean cannot be revoke against your will - ie singapore/pap government cannot kick you out.
converted to singaporean - singapore/pap government can revoke your citizenship against your will.
if the new citizen has renouced his/her previous citizenship, i think they are treated as any other singaporeans. i may be wrong
is this true?
yes, if they find out you submit false document/declaration during your application.
and you know how creative the government is finding false document.
perhaps you write date of birth wrong, the officer dont correct you and will allow the minor mistake to go through, now lets say you become troublemaker, that date of birth will become evidence for false declaration to strip you of citizenship.
afterall, an sia pilot lose PR-ship because considered as "undesirable immigrant".
yes, if they find out you submit false document/declaration during your application.
and you know how creative the government is finding false document.
perhaps you write date of birth wrong, the officer will allow the minor mistake to go through, now lets say you become troublemaker, that date of birth will become evidence for false declaration to strip you of citizenship.
afterall, an sia pilot lose PR-ship because considered as "undesirable immigrant"
so.. voting for opposition = troublemake? :D :D :D :D :D
so if father stripped of citizenship, the whole family including wife, children can also be stripped of citizenship. so entire family become stateless.
new citizens, please vote for PAP and dont put your family at risk
you check the http://statutes.agc.gov.sg or you can go to this link
http://www.asiatour.com/lawarchives/singapore/singapore-constitution-11.htm
look for "Deprivation of citizenship"
They know what to do. More on than us. Join RC, CCC, Home Team volunteer schemes, whatever grassroots bodies, help with meet-the-people sessions. I know of many such cases, especially the Indians, Malaysians and even ang-mohs.
I think this is the NEW plan.
White Paper will be discussed in Parliament.
Votes going against PAP/Ruling Party.
So after TCSS, government will re-review the nos and come with a lower number - say 6-6.5m. Declare hear the People's Voice - and all will be well.
Hedged strategy - keep the People happy, have time to win back Votes for 2016 GE and have an avenue to distance themselves should growth tail-off due to external factors/whatever reason(s).
It's a all a show, like Wrestling.
...... And our population target is like moving goal post. Used to be only 6 million, now close to 7 million. I suspect the 6.9 million is rounding error to 7 million, like 1.99 to make it look less bad.
population target is indeed a moving goal post.
how many remember concept plan 2001?
http://www.ura.gov.sg/conceptplan2001/index.html
The Concept Plan 2001 maps out our vision for the next 40 to 50 years. It is based on a population scenario of 5.5 million.
Indeed singaporeans are like frogs being boiled slowly :)
this government white paper also damn wayang.
Why 6.9m? Why not just round it up at 7.0m? perhaps 6.9m is easier to justify as compared to 7.0m
In the section about park connectors and green corridors, I am not sure why they need to use such BIG green circle to highlight the key parks around Singapore? Perhaps to make the green area look bigger that it is.
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