View Full Version : The so called expert expect mkt to drop 10 to 20%, who will sell?
The so called expert expect mkt to correct 10 to 20%, how will Echelon & Le Fiesta price to drop? Who will sell? May as well don't exercise the option.
blackjack21trader
20-01-13, 15:13
The so called expert expect mkt to correct 10 to 20%, how will Echelon & Le Fiesta price to drop? Who will sell? May as well don't exercise the option.
Good brother Tay EG ! You are right. The experts are all TAU NOW BO HOSAY !
how so? Let your humble brother explains.
During the 70s-80s, there were only 200 millions Americans who made up about 60% of the global demand. Now you have 2 latent demands of 1.5 billion in China and 1 billion in India.
I forsee the future global demand to come from the uncovering of these 2 great countries on Earth.
Already, smartphones industry has made great inroads into these 2 countries. The Auto and Aviation industries have also made great leaps into these 2 countries.
The next should come from the Healthcare industry, but so far because of the higher barrier of entry in China; there has only been some successes.
The USA could again unveil an ace card very soon, which will unlock these 2 demands further.
Good Luck.
blackjack21trader
20-01-13, 15:17
Landed will drop while the rest of the property segments continues to remain healthy and rise.
Is there any particular type of landed? Can be more specific?
Landed will drop while the rest of the property segments continues to remain healthy and rise.
Another thought, all recent buyers after CM6 have to lock in 4 yrs. mostly have plan & can hold on for at least 4 yrs, these ppl are not stupid right, then, who will sell?
Investors should have expected interest rate to go up, rental mkt to be soft in next 3 yrs, world might go into recession,....
Those not affected by CM5 & 6 & already sitting on huge profit can afford to give 10 to 20 discount to sell, but why would they sell? They might not buy any property after CM7, then sitting with lots of cash must have avenues to go to for similar return, where?
In conclusion, how to say that these ppl are expert?
blackjack21trader
20-01-13, 15:38
Another thought, all recent buyers after CM6 have to lock in 4 yrs. mostly have plan & can hold on for at least 4 yrs, these ppl are not stupid right, then, who will sell?
Investors should have expected interest rate to go up, rental mkt to be soft in next 3 yrs, world might go into recession,....
Those not affected by CM5 & 6 & already sitting on huge profit can afford to give 10 to 20 discount to sell, but why would they sell? They might not buy any property after CM7, then sitting with lots of cash must have avenues to go to for similar return, where?
In conclusion, how to say that these ppl are expert?
You are so right. Those that bought on CM5 and CM6 are in fact locked unless they wish to sell and get a less attractive loan package relative to the one they already secured in their hands.
Investors already factored in many risks in their purchases. IT IS the first time buyers we should seek to protect. These people are our babies to buy our private properties from us like 15-20 years down the road when your humble brother retires :) We should all work to make sure they are successful in their first property investment.
blackjack21trader
20-01-13, 15:40
Is there any particular type of landed? Can be more specific?
Yes, those that are grossly over priced relative to their land size. You can find many in propertyguru ;)
blackjack21trader
20-01-13, 15:45
Currently, there is a global battle going on. The battle for the brainpower.
Countries that are able to attract this talent group and make them stay will emerge as the winner in the next 10 years.
It is very obvious by now, why USA can be so successful in the past 20 years. They are able to attract and tap into this brainpower.
This brainpower is the one that create new industry and move the world demand. And they are highly mobile. Because of their talents, they have the financial ability to move around globally.
Singapore is the only country on Earth now that can give their next generation a secured and stable future- financially and socially.
blackjack21trader
20-01-13, 15:52
Because of rapid globalisation in the past 20 years. A New World Market will emerge within the next 5 years. There will not be any distinction for the origination of a product whether it is from USA or China.
The distinction will be, where the location of these inventors called home that shall make a difference. With the Internet, this group of brainpower can be in Singapore , Marketing Team in USA, Factory in China, and the final product/distribution in India or Russia.
These inventors will bring prosperity and growth to the nation they called home. And My Third Eye can see very clearly Singapore is on their radar screen now.
blackjack21trader
20-01-13, 15:56
Imagine you are an inventor, in this case, A CEO of a global consumer shampoo product.
Do you wish to stay in a place where there is constant disruption to your creativity like riots ?
Do you wish your creativity to end up in the graves due to crimes,accidents ?
Do you wish your ideas to never see the light of the days due to some flooding over your laptop ?
Disruption is what this group fear. And security is what they want.
blackjack21trader
20-01-13, 16:00
Why I say within the next 10 years?
Because an event or a technological revolution will take place in about 3 years time. When this technology emerge, it will totally change the landscape of how we view our world and how we consume our products.
This revolution is greater than the Internet or the Automobile.
This revolution is known by those in the know as " The Age of Abundance."
I hope you do not become redundant by then.:doh:
who will sell - what about those who recently bought an upgrade unit of a bigger size, say a unit of > 2 mil and need to let their current unit of 1.2 million go? did u hear some of our forummers actually got a good deal just after cm? did the prices drop after each cm and after a few quarters pick up? so what makes this so different from the previous cm?
blackjack21trader
20-01-13, 16:03
During the Age of Abundance, many new jobs will be created, and so will many old and obsolete jobs be gone. Just like in the good old days, where the typist is replaced by the personal computer.
Many jobs will become redundant. But there is one job that can never go obsolete: The Landlord.
Good Luck.
blackjack21trader
20-01-13, 16:09
who will sell - what about those who recently bought an upgrade unit of a bigger size, say a unit of > 2 mil and need to let their current unit of 1.2 million go? did u hear some of our forummers actually got a good deal just after cm? did the prices drop after each cm and after a few quarters pick up? so what makes this so different from the previous cm?
good question. this point deserves deeper contemplation :)
Sure got ppl sell house in the mkt, but, sell at big discount or flat? Many ppl selling or handful? I think not many sellers.
Imagine you are an inventor, in this case, A CEO of a global consumer shampoo product.
Do you wish to stay in a place where there is constant disruption to your creativity like riots ?
Do you wish your creativity to end up in the graves due to crimes,accidents ?
Do you wish your ideas to never see the light of the days due to some flooding over your laptop ?
Disruption is what this group fear. And security is what they want.
I believe if you let him select between Singapore, Indian or China or Russia. Singapore will be the last place he will want to invest in bah.. Cost is high.. Domestic Market is small.. Not really a good place to set up ba...
Sure got ppl sell house in the mkt, but, sell at big discount or flat? Many ppl selling or handful? I think not many sellers.
I believe CM is meant for stabilizing the market and not crashing the market. CM will never crash the market... The price will move up or down a bit and then stabilize again. The government can never let the market crash.. It just not just the property market but also all the banks will be in great trouble just like what happen in USA. Now the problem is that the seller cannot sell as the SSD will either eat into the profit or make you lose more... For example you bought last year and the price went up 5%.. can you sell? Cannot right due to the SSD... If really people are still selling, then really good luck
Sure got ppl sell house in the mkt, but, sell at big discount or flat? Many ppl selling or handful? I think not many sellers.
those who sell will form the basis of the statistics - ura ppi. that's why you always hear great buys after each cm. that why ppi drops after implementation of each cm. that's why prices of property counter drop after each cm. that's why it is a good time to do house hunting after each cm (only this time, 2nd property will have absd, so it will benefit the first timer). :D
blackjack21trader
20-01-13, 16:40
I believe if you let him select between Singapore, Indian or China or Russia. Singapore will be the last place he will want to invest in bah.. Cost is high.. Domestic Market is small.. Not really a good place to set up ba...
the extra costs is a small price to pay for family safety and personal life. Same concept as the extra money to pay for a safer car.
Good Luck.
check the chart out. note may 96 vs july 97. note the dip started in may 96. why? sometimes government policy has impacts so great it cannot control. that's why this time, it is very careful. Because of may 96, it is fearful of crashing the market.
http://www.redas.com/einformation/mt/researchpaper/PPIGovtmeasures.pdf
I believe CM is meant for stabilizing the market and not crashing the market. CM will never crash the market... The price will move up or down a bit and then stabilize again. The government can never let the market crash.. It just not just the property market but also all the banks will be in great trouble just like what happen in USA. Now the problem is that the seller cannot sell as the SSD will either eat into the profit or make you lose more... For example you bought last year and the price went up 5%.. can you sell? Cannot right due to the SSD... If really people are still selling, then really good luck
The seeds of all recession are planted during the booming years
check the chart out. note may 96 vs july 97. note the dip started in may 96. why? sometimes government policy has impacts so great it cannot control. that's why this time, it is very careful. Because of may 96, it is fearful of crashing the market.
http://www.redas.com/einformation/mt/researchpaper/PPIGovtmeasures.pdf
They didnt expect the AFC to hit straight after they implemented the CMs... so on hindsight they do not unleash harsh CMs all at once nowaday for fear on any unforeseen circumstance
blackjack21trader
20-01-13, 17:07
The seeds of all recession are planted during the booming years
Landed will drop while the rest of the property segments continues to remain healthy and rise.
blackjack21trader
20-01-13, 17:08
I believe if you let him select between Singapore, Indian or China or Russia. Singapore will be the last place he will want to invest in bah.. Cost is high.. Domestic Market is small.. Not really a good place to set up ba...
the extra costs is a small price to pay for family safety and personal life. Same concept as the extra money to pay for a safer car.
Good Luck.
the extra costs is a small price to pay for family safety and personal life. Same concept as the extra money to pay for a safer car.
Good Luck.
To this group, the increase of costs is only small change. Their business type also might require v limited space...
the extra costs is a small price to pay for family safety and personal life. Same concept as the extra money to pay for a safer car.
Good Luck.
I heard from a friend that the environmental condition in Beijing is currently very bad. The air is very polluted. It is very obviously a health hazard to live there. HK also has poor air quality.
check the chart out. note may 96 vs july 97. note the dip started in may 96. why? sometimes government policy has impacts so great it cannot control. that's why this time, it is very careful. Because of may 96, it is fearful of crashing the market.
http://www.redas.com/einformation/mt/researchpaper/PPIGovtmeasures.pdf
Look at this picture, then closed your eye and imagine 85 of this a month.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2012/12/12/qe4-is-here-bernanke-delivers-85b-a-month-until-unemployment-falls-below-6-5/
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100371478/Japan_Approves_117_Billion_Stimulus_as_PM_Abe_Aims_to_Boost_Economy
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32265.html
http://infosthetics.com/archives/one_billion_dollars.jpg
They don't have this during AFC.
http://www.iproperty.com.sg/news/2140/Probably-no-property-bubble-here-yet-MM
There is probably no bubble in Singapore's property market, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew said yesterday.
The sharp price rises that have been seen are 'part of the total liquidity in the whole world system', said Mr Lee, noting that interest rates are low, and foreigners still see properties as affordable.
'Even if we cap our excess, people in Hong Kong, Indonesia, will say, compared to what I have to pay, Singapore is cheap, let's buy it,' he added.
'And apart from landed properties, they can buy into any condos.'
look at ppi, drop took place in may 1996, afc was in july 1997. Drop was caused by cooling measure in may 1996 not by afc. look at the chart. do not under estimate policies.
They didnt expect the AFC to hit straight after they implemented the CMs... so on hindsight they do not unleash harsh CMs all at once nowaday for fear on any unforeseen circumstance
blackjack21trader
20-01-13, 17:52
http://www.iproperty.com.sg/news/2140/Probably-no-property-bubble-here-yet-MM
There is probably no bubble in Singapore's property market, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew said yesterday.
The sharp price rises that have been seen are 'part of the total liquidity in the whole world system', said Mr Lee, noting that interest rates are low, and foreigners still see properties as affordable.
'Even if we cap our excess, people in Hong Kong, Indonesia, will say, compared to what I have to pay, Singapore is cheap, let's buy it,' he added.
'And apart from landed properties, they can buy into any condos.'
Totally agree with grandfather Lee. Remember he spoke about the Golden Era long time ago? Looks like it is happening now with China latest GDP figures which beat analysts' estimates.
Ben did not use the QEs to spend. In fact, Obama cut spending by nearly a Trillion in 2011. The QEs was used to purchase assets instead- READ BEN's lips carefully. Buying assets is akin to hedging against her own currency. It is a clever strategy.
During the 70s-80s, the world was not that globalised. But now, you need more and more US$ to go around the system.
Jarkarta property price double in one and a half year. Now that's a bubble.
Totally agree with grandfather Lee. Remember he spoke about the Golden Era long time ago? Looks like it is happening now with China latest GDP figures which beat analysts' estimates.
Ben did not use the QEs to spend. In fact, Obama cut spending by nearly a Trillion in 2011. The QEs was used to purchase assets instead- READ BEN's lips carefully. Buying assets is akin to hedging against her own currency. It is a clever strategy.
During the 70s-80s, the world was not that globalised. But now, you need more and more US$ to go around the system.
From what I read, it seems that FED does not belong to the USA government but a privately owned bank who have the right to print money. So what is he doing now? Printing money and buying at low price... This is just part of the whole plan.. Crash the money and inflated it up and then crash it again
They know about the problem of 2008 crisis as early as 2007, why they never act?
blackjack21trader
20-01-13, 18:03
From what I read, it seems that FED does not belong to the USA government but a privately owned bank who have the right to print money. So what is he doing now? Printing money and buying at low price... This is just part of the whole plan.. Crash the money and inflated it up and then crash it again
They know about the problem of 2008 crisis as early as 2007, why they never act?
9:00am 1997 Dec 11. Federal Bureu of Investigation
My journey began when I was 8 years old. I discovered my telepathic ability one day when I predicted exactly the Dow index that day. I could still remember the number vividly today : 666.66
At that time, my uncle-in-law was an FBI agent. His division's objective was to recruit a group of so called telepathy remote viewers for his team. Remote viewers, or RVR as they codenamed it. Of course he invited me to one of these sessions in RVR.
In the class was a Caucasian guy of German origin. He has such piercing eyes that one could somehow feel the mental vibration generated by him.
And this guy I shall call him mentor, imparted much of the remote viewing skill to me before he died. In his own words, I was like the son he never had.
9:00am 2012,December 11. Singapore
I am using using my remote viewing ability, "Third Eye" or "Eagle Eye" as FBI termed when I was 8 years old. This is what I see:
" I see a 30 years old semi-detached house in Namly Avenue. It is a very worn down semi-d, due to years of neglect. Nevertheless, it is still presentable. About 4000 square feet of land and is 2 storey high.
The property has a huge garden, but the built up is only about 2500sqft.
The house has no granny's room on the first level, only a guest toilet and a kitchen"
" Then, I saw an old couple sitting at the dinning table. I zoomed in on their conversation: ....................."
The old man look around 65 years old with a head full of dyed black hair. The old wife look to be 1 or 2 years younger than him.
" We are now at 10pm. " the old man whispered.
" No, it is daytime, Peter ! " the old woman was puzzled.
" No...I mean our life, it is now at 10pm. When the clock struck 12, we could be gone, Mary. Gone, as you know, up the lorry. " the old man explained.
" I see, Peter. I know what you are trying to tell me. You want to sell this house right?" Mary said.
"Yes, we have to sell it for the cash. Throughout our lives, we have worked hard for it and now it is time to take out the deposit from the treasure chest. ha ha " ,Peter said sort of sarcastically.
"If it was 10 years ago, I would never let you. But we are now at sunset.", said Mary
"Yes, but selling and realising the cash was not enough. The other day, I met a young man named blackjack21trader...", Peter explained.
"Oh..that handsome guy ! ", exclaimed Mary.
Yeah..that's me.
"anyway, what he told me has some truth in it. He advised me to realise the profits in our semi-d and then buy a CCR condo for a stable rental returns against inflation. At my age, blackjack21trader told me I should insure ourselves against unforseen medical issues. But to keep all our assets in cash is risky under the current environment..."
"A housing agent the other day told me someone is willing to pay S$7million for our house." Mary interrupted.
"yes, blackjack21trader suggested we get a good S$3million 3 bedder condo in prime district for rental returns, and then buy another S$2million studio in CCR for our own stay and keep the rest of the millions in the bank for rainy day.", Peter continued.
"Not only is blackjack21trader handsome, he is really smart.", said Mary
I was blushing in the background.
"By having 2 CCR condos, we are at least protected up to 80% of our asset value against inflation. Then, one of the CCR condos will generate an income streaming to protect our savings from declining due to our spending. The S$2million cash will protect us against any possible recession in or downturn in the economy. It will also serve as an emergency fund. That's how blackjack21trader explained to me." Peter explained to Mary.
Then, in the shadow of one corner of the dinning hall, I felt a presence. The silhouette looked like a forumer named chestnut. Dam ! Another RVR ! Don't tell me he is a vibs too !
Quickly, I recalled all my alpha brainwaves back from the location.
THE END
NIL SINE LABORE!
blackjack21trader
20-01-13, 18:08
6 Jan 2013- Year of the Double Headed Serpent
Morning, 6 a.m I woke up from a short nap after entertaining brother Yowetan in condosingapore.com forum.
Slowly, I got out of the sofa and went into the bathroom in my study room. As I was dragging my lazy feet towards the bathroom, I opened the second door to my Master Room. I saw my dear wife and my children sleeping soundly.
Yawn..........
I closed the door and looked into the bathroom mirror. Then,what I saw shocked me.
http://i155.photobucket.com/albums/s297/blackjack21trader/250px-Leslie_Cheung_zpsb54969bc.jpg
“Leslie Chung ! “
I looked again...and rubbed my eyes and looked carefully again...
“Leslie Chung ! “
Wahlaueh ! What is happening leh? No wonder everyone in the forum praised I so handsome.
Then, I moved my face to the mirror and took a closer look....
No leh.....It is my same own face la.....with balding head and wrinkling lines.
Sigh.....Age is catching up fast. So I brushed my teeth and went back to the sofa, enjoying the morning fresh air from the dews.
The sky in Singapore was just about turning from a very dark blue to a nice light blue.The Sun will be coming out to play today, I thought and smiled.
Yawn........
Suddenly, I heard a buzzing sound flying in my direction. So fast was the mosquito zapping past before me that I merely saw a black blurry spot.
As I can still recalled that in one of my previous lives, I was a KungFu Swordman from Mainland China GuangDong Province; I quickly used 2 of my fingers on my hand to grab the stupid insect like a pair of chopsticks.
The mosquito pleaded, “ Good Master, please let me go so I can suck more blood.”
“What? Why should I ? “
“Good Master, I have a message for you. I overheard many conversations in many of the bungalows in D9.”
“Oh Really? Then tell me first, are you carrying any diseases like Nile or other strange virus? “, I demanded.
”No....No....Good Master, I drink only from sewage water ”, pleaded the mosquito.
Then it went on to tell me about the “Next Wave”:
Oh good parents hearts, good parents hearts,
they are but pure like fresh water and compromising like the land below my feet.
Oh good parents hearts, good parents hearts,
they are loving and would do anything for their children ugly or handsome like BJ21T.
Oh good parents hearts, good parents hearts,
they now want to buy Singapore property for their children !
“Well, no need to patronise me. I know very well I am not Leslie Chung !” I retorted.
As I was about to crush the stupid burger, Leslie Chung emerged from nowhere and held my wrist.
He looked at me in silence and shook his head twice.
“Ok la, stupid burger..count yourself lucky this time ! “ I set the mosquito free.As I was about to sit down on the sofa, Leslie raised his voice at me,
"What did you just do ?"
"How do you mean?", I looked at Leslie with puzzled eyes.
"Why did you set the killer free ?" Leslie questioned me like a police officer.
"What? What killer ? The mosquito ?"
"Yes ! THE MOSQUITO, why did you set the killer free? " Leslie demanded.
"I thought you ask me to ? " I raised my voice at Leslie kor kor.
"Since when ? I did not say a thing ! " Leslie explained
"What THE.......You shook your head twice, remember ?" by now, my face was all blush with anger.
"I shook my head meaning not to set the mosquito free! How dumb can you be ? " Leslie reprimanded me.
"So-So-So. Now you tell me what to do ?" I shouted with sweats dripping down my forehead.
"Turn into a mosquito now, quick ! After him ! " Leslie suggested.
blackjack21trader
20-01-13, 18:22
Dear good brothers,
It is good that you have doubts about any policy. This is good. Although I am not qualified to explain to you, let me be the handsome man thick skin enough to answer you.
Good brothers, I do not know if Singapore is aware of the so called "exploit" you mentioned, as your handsome brother is not a policy maker.Anyway, it is a non-issue whether they know about it earlier or later too. Let me explain:
Policing the real estate of any capitalist country is never easy, because there exist an unholy alliance between the banks and real estate. This is because property prices are heavily influenced by financial activities like liquidity and loans. Financial activities are heavily influenced in turn by property construction or development.
But one thing I do know about policing the property markets is that it is the most complicated process of a country as it involves the quality of life, the banks, the GDPs, economic activities, forex, foreign investments, hot money, hedge funds, stock markets and ultimately a substainable growth of a nation.
It is never easy. In fact, it is easier to police Cooling Measures within a heated property market, than to try to re-inflate or stimulate a crashed property market. One very good recent example is the US property market crash in 2007. After 6 years, they are still trying to revive the market.
We are a very young nation. This country is still younger than many of us (70% of us are aged between 15-64 years old ) .I for one, is merely 3 years younger than Singapore.
For a young nation to make such economic progress within 47 years is really remarkable. As a matter of fact, we already well surpassed many developed economies in the World. One then wonders, what makes Singapore tick where others failed.
Look for Substainable and Resilient Growth with Self-Discipline Risk Taking, as I always hinted to my business brothers.
Who are the experts that said ppty prices will drop 10-20%?
Compared to introduction of 3% ABSD where almost every expert was quoted with all the doom and gloom predictions and even recession, CM7 actually led to divergent opinions among experts according to ST reports, despite being the most comprehensive and severe among all the CMs.
The reason is that bec of low interest rate and excess liquidity, even some of the so called experts are not sure how exactly the market will react and so based on previous wrong predictions, some experts have turned cautious in their predictions.
This has some impact on buyers. So this time we do not read reports of many buyers backing out of their OTPs. Some experts in this forum also felt that barring some mild kneejerk reactions, Ppty prices will continue to rise albeit more gradually.
My novice guess is that this time, it will be different. There will have to be correction, even if it is a mild one. Policy makers have made this clear that they wish to cool the market, developers can introduce whatever strategies to get around the problems, including ABSD absorption etc to make prices look good, but resales will be more affected compared to any of the previous CM. Most sellers can hold but there will be bound to have some sellers who have to sell for whatever reasons and where to find a desperate investor buyer who is willing to pay 10% more overnight? Furthermore, the current market is very different from 2010 and 2011, the current market is starting 2013 very high up in the ladder, in fact higher than the whole market has ever been before in its entire history.
Dont think the market can be carried by first time buyers alone.
blackjack21trader
20-01-13, 18:30
Singapore HDB policy is Santa Claus Policy.
"What? Am I hearing this correctly," many young bothers and sisters now wondering if I am now typing from the IMH ( Institute of Mental Health).
Let me explain before you jump to any conclusion.
A NEW HDB gave the buyer an UNFAIR ADVANTAGE over the rest of the market segments. How so?
Because it is a very Heavily Subsidised Investment. So UNFAIR that your humble brother sometimes imagine the HDB to be headed by Santa Claus giving away free monies !
The construction costs itself for a single unit already well surpassed the price each citizen pay for a new HDB. Let alone if we were to take into consideration infrastructural costs or intangible benefits like lift lobby, carparks, gardens, public facillities like libraries and shopping malls.
To add to this ridiculous charitable act, the Singapore Government actually built MRT stations ( or MTR as known in Hong Kong, or Subways as known in angmo cities ) and light rails system within walking distance of the new projects.
Not surprisingly, the new HDB or new EC are always closer to MRT stations than the private condos. There is only one exception in the Lion City and that is ION Orchard.
What were they thinking? Unlike the Minister who spent countless sleepless nights thinking about how to curb the sizzling hot Singapore property market; your humble brother here spent countless sleepless nights wondering if HDB is really headed by Santa Claus.
Where on this Planet's developed cities can you find a new 900sqft 3 bedder apartment selling for less than S$500,000? If you convert that into British Pound or Swiss Franc, it looked even more ridiculous!
Indeed, HDB is giving you free monies- albeit not in the form of hard cold cash, but in a form of market asset value which eventually you can choose to convert into cash if you want to.
A quick mental work by your humble brother, for each new HDB unit, the buyer stands to gain at least S$20,000 from the construction costs, and at least an additional S$80,000 if you compare a similar sized HDB resale unit.
A new BTO investment of about S$300,000 would be worth around S$400,000 if put into the resale market after complying the minimum occupation period. And that is just conservatively calculating.
Then, for those uncles and aunties who bought their Marine Parade New HDB for less than S$100,000 20 years ago, it became even more ridiculous when a recent unit there was sold for a COLD HARD S$1,000,000.
Now, if we even take a high inflation modal rate of 5% annually for 20 years, the uncles and aunties still stand to gain more than S$700,000 in present value terms !
NOW YOU GET IT?
Well, if you are a young investor with little capital, you should try to get married and then ballot for Executive Condo, BTO or HDB. Then, get a loan from HDB or bank to service your asset.
Getting a HDB immediately after your marriage will have gotten you started a few hundred meters ahead from the rest of your peers in the long property investment marathon.
PAP government is on the right track, dun be brainwashed by the Internet forums.
see what my mentor said:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7D3_eGaO5k
HDB Policy is also my Grandmother's Policy.
"You can't be serious," I heard young punks saying this infront of their iPhones to me again.
Read My Lips: HDB POLICY IS MY GRANDMOTHER'S POLICY !
wow...that was just scary man......before you tell on me and get me to lim kopi, let me quickly tell you a story:
Only a few brothers and sisters here are aware, I got to where I am today because I was born with a silver spoon. Or... I was born into a disgustingly rich family la. But anyway, that's another story.
You see, I got a head start in property investment using a S$500,000 seed money given by my 100 years old grandmother on my 19th birthday la. ( Very paiseh...I play cheat la.....WOAHAHAHEHHEHEHEHEH )
However, all is not lost! The roads to Rome are all different, but the destination is the same, my good young brothers and sisters.
"I feel like smashing his face," indeed, my third eye heard you !
Anyway, before you got all angry...listen to me for a sec.
When you buy a HDB, the subsidised rate they gave you, is.......
JUST LIKE THE SEED MONEY MY GRANDMOTHER GAVE ME !
BINGO! Now you believe that I am an enlightened being with a THIRD EYE liao bo?
give it 3 months, then we see where prices are... my guess is 10-15% correction.
blackjack21trader
20-01-13, 18:43
give it 3 months, then we see where prices are... my guess is 10-15% correction.
watch:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TUMxDhEZB4
blackjack21trader
20-01-13, 19:27
I saw a Swan black in color landed on the lake.
On the opposite of the lake, throngs and throngs of golden heads and some black heads scurrying to swim across the lake.
A Mighty Lion stood guard before the City Gate, watching the crowd converging.
The first few climbed out of the lake, carrying bags and bags of gold ingots .
They stood before the Lion,pleading the Mighty Lion to let them enter the City.
2013, the year of the Double Headed Serpent.........
On the first strike of the Gong, 32 taels of gold ingots equal 100 Lion coins.
On the second strike of the Gong, 64 taels of gold ingots equal 100 Lion coins.
On the third strike of the Gong, 128 taels of gold ingots equal to 100 Lion coins.
One of the late river crossers exclaimed, " Of what use is my gold? When I can't even enjoy it outside the Lion City?!! "
With that, the Black Swan flew over the man and snatched him away.
March 2013 is
1) the beginning of the STRONG recovery of USA economy.
2) USD will be stronger resulting in Yen weakening. Hence:
3) It will likely sparked the Mass Exodus of Very Rich to Singapore as they view SGD as the only safe haven hedge against Euro$ because of a weakening Yen. To you the effect is minimal, but to the super rich, exchange losses can run into the MILLIONS.
actually i love to keep the best bit for the last. but since brothers here make me so happy and are so intelligent and well-informed: I share with you guys the following:
Many siaolangs brainwashed by the angmo media shouting crash arh crash arh...but little do they know, the crash already happened.
the crash happened in 2008 with the collapse of Lehman, evaporating billions or maybe trillions ( nobody actually can tell the exact figure ) of stock markets value globally.
we are living in the AFTERMATH of this collapse:
1) Population growth exponentially = Depleting resources = only few strong economies will be able to buy these resources.
2) Potable water crisis = we are all built on a water economy; not an oil economy. Oil already peaked somewhere in 2009.
3) Currency war ongoing = inflation. e.g when USA prints, everyone has to print.
4) Many Unrest and Natural disasters all over the globe.
5) Unemployment issues due to point (1).
The MOTHER OF ALL QUESTIONS IS:
WHERE IS THIS SAFE HAVEN ON EARTH?
Ans: This SAFE HAVEN is found where the government proactively work to overcome the above 5 challenges. Most economies in the world are at a serious disadvantage because of the brain drain. The top brains chose to remain in the lucrative private sectors like the banks. And see now what is happening to them?
In this SAFE HAVEN, your job is to worry about only one issue- PRODUCTIVITY. The bigger issues are the jobs of the top brains. YOU SLEEP and wake up the next morning to work. The top brains is to spend their countless sleepless nights solving the more complex external issues.
In the other weaker economies, the people took to the street because of their incompetent governments to try to solve the problem themselves.
Where would you GO if you have the money?
Ans: Don't GO IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE TRAFFIC HOR !
This post dated 30 December Year Two Thousand and Twelve 12:19 pm, Singapore Time.
Jarkarta property price double in one and a half year. Now that's a bubble.
And they have done it in following circumstances:
1. 8% interest rate
2. Minimal bank loan, mostly cash transaction
3. Utra low rental yield (much lower than bank fixed deposit rate)
4. Prone to natural disaster like the current flooding
Despite all these risks property is still the best bet. It beats gold, shares or small business start ups.
If population go to 7m, those condo & hdb build in next few years will not be enough & property price will chiong. If u know this is coming, just hold the property for few more years , price will continue to move north.
If population go to 7m, those condo & hdb build in next few years will not be enough & property price will chiong. If u know this is coming, just hold the property for few more years , price will continue to move north.
i also say...:spliff2:
If population go to 7m, those condo & hdb build in next few years will not be enough & property price will chiong. If u know this is coming, just hold the property for few more years , price will continue to move north.
dont mean to be a wet blanket, but if average income level does not catch up, i don't see how prices can keep going higher. Of cos i hope it does hehe.
If population go to 7m, those condo & hdb build in next few years will not be enough & property price will chiong. If u know this is coming, just hold the property for few more years , price will continue to move north.
Agents for sg properties in jakarta are advising their clients that it is possible that in the near future foreigners are barred from buying sg properties. It is also more likely that the current 15% absd imposed on foreigners will be permanent. Once there is a clarity in the gov intention on foreigners buying sg properties emerged, we will see the return of foreign demand.
dont mean to be a wet blanket, but if average income level does not catch up, i don't see how prices can keep going higher. Of cos i hope it does hehe.
Is average income more applicable to hdb resale prices whereas top 20% income level relates to private condos?
Allthepies
20-01-13, 22:27
Private condo no restriction, u may have to look at top 20% income of China, India, US, Indonesia etc...:D :D
9:00am 1997 Dec 11. Federal Bureu of Investigation
My journey began when I was 8 years old. I discovered my telepathic ability one day when I predicted exactly the Dow index that day. I could still remember the number vividly today : 666.66
At that time, my uncle-in-law was an FBI agent. His division's objective was to recruit a group of so called telepathy remote viewers for his team. Remote viewers, or RVR as they codenamed it. Of course he invited me to one of these sessions in RVR.
In the class was a Caucasian guy of German origin. He has such piercing eyes that one could somehow feel the mental vibration generated by him.
And this guy I shall call him mentor, imparted much of the remote viewing skill to me before he died. In his own words, I was like the son he never had.
9:00am 2012,December 11. Singapore
I am using using my remote viewing ability, "Third Eye" or "Eagle Eye" as FBI termed when I was 8 years old. This is what I see:
" I see a 30 years old semi-detached house in Namly Avenue. It is a very worn down semi-d, due to years of neglect. Nevertheless, it is still presentable. About 4000 square feet of land and is 2 storey high.
The property has a huge garden, but the built up is only about 2500sqft.
The house has no granny's room on the first level, only a guest toilet and a kitchen"
" Then, I saw an old couple sitting at the dinning table. I zoomed in on their conversation: ....................."
The old man look around 65 years old with a head full of dyed black hair. The old wife look to be 1 or 2 years younger than him.
" We are now at 10pm. " the old man whispered.
" No, it is daytime, Peter ! " the old woman was puzzled.
" No...I mean our life, it is now at 10pm. When the clock struck 12, we could be gone, Mary. Gone, as you know, up the lorry. " the old man explained.
" I see, Peter. I know what you are trying to tell me. You want to sell this house right?" Mary said.
"Yes, we have to sell it for the cash. Throughout our lives, we have worked hard for it and now it is time to take out the deposit from the treasure chest. ha ha " ,Peter said sort of sarcastically.
"If it was 10 years ago, I would never let you. But we are now at sunset.", said Mary
"Yes, but selling and realising the cash was not enough. The other day, I met a young man named blackjack21trader...", Peter explained.
"Oh..that handsome guy ! ", exclaimed Mary.
Yeah..that's me.
"anyway, what he told me has some truth in it. He advised me to realise the profits in our semi-d and then buy a CCR condo for a stable rental returns against inflation. At my age, blackjack21trader told me I should insure ourselves against unforseen medical issues. But to keep all our assets in cash is risky under the current environment..."
"A housing agent the other day told me someone is willing to pay S$7million for our house." Mary interrupted.
"yes, blackjack21trader suggested we get a good S$3million 3 bedder condo in prime district for rental returns, and then buy another S$2million studio in CCR for our own stay and keep the rest of the millions in the bank for rainy day.", Peter continued.
"Not only is blackjack21trader handsome, he is really smart.", said Mary
I was blushing in the background.
"By having 2 CCR condos, we are at least protected up to 80% of our asset value against inflation. Then, one of the CCR condos will generate an income streaming to protect our savings from declining due to our spending. The S$2million cash will protect us against any possible recession in or downturn in the economy. It will also serve as an emergency fund. That's how blackjack21trader explained to me." Peter explained to Mary.
Then, in the shadow of one corner of the dinning hall, I felt a presence. The silhouette looked like a forumer named chestnut. Dam ! Another RVR ! Don't tell me he is a vibs too !
Quickly, I recalled all my alpha brainwaves back from the location.
THE END
NIL SINE LABORE!
You're a VS boy?!
Regulators
20-01-13, 23:14
the real discounts will only start coming when sibor shoots up significantly. until then, those waiting at the sidelines can really wait long long
The so called expert expect mkt to correct 10 to 20%, how will Echelon & Le Fiesta price to drop? Who will sell? May as well don't exercise the option.
Went back to Singapore for 3 week after a break of almost year. Everywhere building wip, a Taxis driver told me the Chinese claim Singapore property very cheap, their salary lower than Singapore, property price higher than Singapore.
Went back to Singapore for 3 week after a break of almost year. Everywhere building wip, a Taxis driver told me the Chinese claim Singapore property very cheap, their salary lower than Singapore, property price higher than Singapore.
Agree.
The most potent factor here is the mind.
More and more and more people know that buying a property in Sg is a damn solid and sure win investment!
Thats why people are willing to put in more and more money to buy.
The CMs are not helping in this case, more people want to buy after seeing the effects of the CMs (CM meant to cool the market, which implicitly means market is hot or going to get hot), on the supply side, CM drastically reduces supply.
This is starting to show up ... sit tight .. enjoy the ride ...
Alternatively, you can wait at the jetty with Ah B!
DKSG
Wow, 2 am still awake.
https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/553435_4575099888460_583969690_n.jpg
France way of roasting chestnut.
https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/424439_4575096648379_557673909_n.jpg
Pondering over some property matters lor ...
DKSG
And what would it be at 2 am.
https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/23749_4575166810133_1633055947_n.jpg
Last year Tulip.
blackjack21trader
21-01-13, 04:38
You're a VS boy?!
Yes indeed, your handsome brother is from Jalan Baser VS.
NIL SINE LABORE !
For We Shall NOT FORGET.
Investors already factored in many risks in their purchases. IT IS the first time buyers we should seek to protect. These people are our babies to buy our private properties from us like 15-20 years down the road when your humble brother retires :) We should all work to make sure they are successful in their first property investment.
.........LIKE!
Because of rapid globalisation in the past 20 years. A New World Market will emerge within the next 5 years. There will not be any distinction for the origination of a product whether it is from USA or China.
The distinction will be, where the location of these inventors called home that shall make a difference. With the Internet, this group of brainpower can be in Singapore , Marketing Team in USA, Factory in China, and the final product/distribution in India or Russia.
These inventors will bring prosperity and growth to the nation they called home. And My Third Eye can see very clearly Singapore is on their radar screen now.
SGP currency is expected to weaken in the coming year, with the come back of china, usa and perhaps europe. that is the surest sign that the SGD has become the safe haven currency that the world is looking at.
To those who are certain about the direction that property prices in S'pore will take, just remember:
“Certainty? In this world nothing is certain but death and taxes.”
― Benjamin Franklin
Yes indeed, your handsome brother is from Jalan Baser VS.
NIL SINE LABORE !
For We Shall NOT FORGET.
vs ... Victoria secret boys :scared-5:
blackjack21trader
21-01-13, 10:22
vs ... Victoria secret boys :scared-5:
:scared-5:
Just itchy leg go & view a condo at red hill, seller holding on to asking price, 6 groups viewed.
Yes indeed, your handsome brother is from Jalan Baser VS.
NIL SINE LABORE !
For We Shall NOT FORGET.
Thy Sons Are We (: kampong glam-siglap for me!
blackjack21trader
22-01-13, 05:10
Thy Sons Are We (: kampong glam-siglap for me!
FELLOW VICTORIA LIONS !
YOUR humble but handsome brother is so HAPPY to see many of you here :)
give it 3 months, then we see where prices are... my guess is 10-15% correction.
Steady lah..... Lehman crisis property took nine months then drop 25%.... just cm7 when there is full employment and low interest u want property pricesnto drop 15% in 3 months?
Lehman crisis is global big big crisis leh...... Cm7 only Singapore.....
Have you ever seen cm causing prices to drop independent of other events? Cm doesn't cause prices to drop.....
Unemployment, coupled with high interest then prices will drop
Has dleedon prices really dropped?
Because psf is quite misleading when comparing different level, sizes and facing.
I actually enjoy reading blackjack21trader's post. Funny and informative.
Just itchy leg go & view a condo at red hill, seller holding on to asking price, 6 groups viewed.
U can buy from developer cheaper. :D
U can buy from developer cheaper. :D
thats why i BOUGHt from developer...:cool:
U can buy from developer cheaper. :D
You mean buy from CDL ?
I believe the resale is cheaper.
DKSG
since when?
resale are so much cheaper
U can buy from developer cheaper. :D
I was checking out a resale unit last week. Good size unit. Within 1 week snapped up. Price not lower than last transaction. And I thought resale has dried up...
There still seems to be a significant price gap between resale and new sale, resale being cheaper.
thomastansb
22-03-13, 00:24
It has never happened before. CM has never caused prices to drop. Not even stagnant. Only slower growth.
Likewise, HM (heating measures) didn't work also when property was down from 2003 to 2006.
Lehman crisis is big but that is not the only factor. At that time, Citibank, AIG, Morgan stanley, JP Morgan and all major US financial institutions + Big big European banks are all going down. If US and Europe didn't inject the banks with massive amount of money, these big big banks will go bankrupt, insurance companies will go bankrupt and all their people will go bankrupt. All countries holding bonds, swaps will literally have nothing and many countries will go bankrupt also. It is super contagious. This is how serious it was but still, 20% drop? Haha... And now with a small tiny CM7, we expect 15%? With low interest, high rental, you got to be kidding me..
Steady lah..... Lehman crisis property took nine months then drop 25%.... just cm7 when there is full employment and low interest u want property pricesnto drop 15% in 3 months?
Lehman crisis is global big big crisis leh...... Cm7 only Singapore.....
Have you ever seen cm causing prices to drop independent of other events? Cm doesn't cause prices to drop.....
Unemployment, coupled with high interest then prices will drop
There still seems to be a significant price gap between resale and new sale, resale being cheaper.
the gap is always there. like new car smell and old car smell, people will naturally gravitate towards new homes.
the gap is always there. like new car smell and old car smell, people will naturally gravitate towards new homes.
There should be a gap, but, my feel is that the gap is rather large by historical standard, so, either new sales will soften a little, or resale will climb up a little, that is, if the market remain stable...
however, i reckon that it is just a feel, and i do not yet have historical data to back it up, perhaps someone here has the historical numbers...
There should be a gap, but, my feel is that the gap is rather large by historical standard, so, either new sales will soften a little, or resale will climb up a little, that is, if the market remain stable...
however, i reckon that it is just a feel, and i do not yet have historical data to back it up, perhaps someone here has the historical numbers...
On the way up, the gap will widen and on the way down, the gap will tighten.
And the gap can be anything between 20-30%.
Based on personal experience . . . had been scouting for a unit for sometime. Hard to get good deals from developers. But in the resale market, some gems to be discovered. Just need a combination of the owner being flexible (or not quite up to date with market) and the agent being overly anxious to close deal. Just picked up D11 2 bedder for just over 1,300psf. So yes, concur that the better buys are in resale!
There should be a gap, but, my feel is that the gap is rather large by historical standard, so, either new sales will soften a little, or resale will climb up a little, that is, if the market remain stable...
however, i reckon that it is just a feel, and i do not yet have historical data to back it up, perhaps someone here has the historical numbers...
Based on personal experience . . . had been scouting for a unit for sometime. Hard to get good deals from developers. But in the resale market, some gems to be discovered. Just need a combination of the owner being flexible (or not quite up to date with market) and the agent being overly anxious to close deal. Just picked up D11 2 bedder for just over 1,300psf. So yes, concur that the better buys are in resale!
Mind sharing the project name or which part of d11?
The so called expert expect mkt to correct 10 to 20%, how will Echelon & Le Fiesta price to drop? Who will sell? May as well don't exercise the option.
that depends cause of correction. If it is interest rate, those cannot pay bank will have to sell :scared-2: :scared-2: :scared-2:
that depends cause of correction. If it is interest rate, those cannot pay bank will have to sell :scared-2: :scared-2: :scared-2:
Rising interest rate will have minimal impact unless u are talking about a spike which is very unlikely given US situation today.
A global recession coupled with rising unemployment rate and biz failure will be the one to watch out for.
Rising interest rate will have minimal impact unless u are talking about a spike which is very unlikely given US situation today.
A global recession coupled with rising unemployment rate and biz failure will be the one to watch out for.
If you understand politics, it is NOT that rates increased 25bp. It is the THREAT that rates will go up that is used as a tactic to cool people down.
There are some ppl who will be scared off one. The demand drops a bit.
THe problem with the current situation is that ppl keep getting scared by CM1234567, that now they become not scared any more. The only scared part is by the next CM, they get marginalised out of the market!
Like what HK Drama serial says "I was scared all the way I grow up one!"
DKSG
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