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http://propertysoul.com/2013/01/14/who-are-affected-by-the-new-property-cooling-measures/
Who are affected by the new property cooling measures?
January 14, 2013
The objective of the comprehensive package of property cooling measures, according to the government, is “to ensure a stable and sustainable property market”.
Government intervention can definitely delay the onset of a bubble burst, making the market ‘sustainable’ for the time being.
As for 'stable’, I don’t think this is what investors/speculators or real users want. The former wish prices will continue to go up while the latter want the other way round.
You may say it is just another government attempt to stem out speculation in the property market. But this time round, it may affect more people than just the target group.
This is similar to the scenario of carrying out a fogging exercise in the neighborhood for the purpose of pest control. It kills not only mosquitoes and flies, but also lizards, butterflies and other insects that have done no harm but have to sacrifice for a bigger cause.
With the new restrictions kick in, who are likely to be the unfortunate living things in the property ecosystem?
1) Developers, property agents and mortgage banks
Buyers are going to wait on the sidelines at least for the next few months. Fortunately, first quarter is usually a slow quarter that everyone expect disappointing results anyway. Blame it on the New Year and Chinese New Year!
2) Permanent Residents (PRs)
This is definitely bad news for PRs, especially for long-term staying PRs who have no intention to convert to Singaporeans or don’t seem to get approved for their Singapore citizenship. From now on, whatever they are going to buy, they are going to pay more than Singaporeans.
3) Public housing tenants
PRs are no longer allowed to sublet the whole HDB flat. In the forseeable future, less supply of HDBs for rent may result in higher rental rate for the tenants.
4) Public housing owners
Thanks to the lower cap on Mortgage Servicing Ratio at 30 to 35 percent of the borrower’s gross monthly income. Less people can afford the higher-priced HDB units. Large-size and relatively new HDB, BTO and EC units at rarely-found good locations now have a smaller pool of buyers.
5) The upgraders
Those who can afford the current skyrocketing prices would have already bought their home. The Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD), lower LTV and higher minimum down payment only make the target properties of the upgraders more unreachable.
6) Those who bought in the last three years
Cooling measures that kick in over the last three years mean higher transaction costs (ABSD, seller’s stamp duty) and reduced monthly return. Even if they can sell in the near future, with only a slight increase in property prices, the chance of them having a profit is slim. That’s why they can’t sell now and are stuck with an overpriced property.
Well, no matter what is going to happen in the property market, at least one party can benefit from the new round of cooling measures.
Here’s to the government. May you enjoy another prosperous year collecting more buyer’s and seller’s stamp duties!
Regulators
15-01-13, 02:24
If I buy my next property, absd damn chor, I think I better keep cash or go into commercial property for now
http://propertysoul.com/2013/01/14/who-are-affected-by-the-new-property-cooling-measures/
Who are affected by the new property cooling measures?
January 14, 2013
The objective of the comprehensive package of property cooling measures, according to the government, is “to ensure a stable and sustainable property market”.
Government intervention can definitely delay the onset of a bubble burst, making the market ‘sustainable’ for the time being.
As for 'stable’, I don’t think this is what investors/speculators or real users want. The former wish prices will continue to go up while the latter want the other way round.
You may say it is just another government attempt to stem out speculation in the property market. But this time round, it may affect more people than just the target group.
This is similar to the scenario of carrying out a fogging exercise in the neighborhood for the purpose of pest control. It kills not only mosquitoes and flies, but also lizards, butterflies and other insects that have done no harm but have to sacrifice for a bigger cause.
With the new restrictions kick in, who are likely to be the unfortunate living things in the property ecosystem?
1) Developers, property agents and mortgage banks
Buyers are going to wait on the sidelines at least for the next few months. Fortunately, first quarter is usually a slow quarter that everyone expect disappointing results anyway. Blame it on the New Year and Chinese New Year!
2) Permanent Residents (PRs)
This is definitely bad news for PRs, especially for long-term staying PRs who have no intention to convert to Singaporeans or don’t seem to get approved for their Singapore citizenship. From now on, whatever they are going to buy, they are going to pay more than Singaporeans.
3) Public housing tenants
PRs are no longer allowed to sublet the whole HDB flat. In the forseeable future, less supply of HDBs for rent may result in higher rental rate for the tenants.
4) Public housing owners
Thanks to the lower cap on Mortgage Servicing Ratio at 30 to 35 percent of the borrower’s gross monthly income. Less people can afford the higher-priced HDB units. Large-size and relatively new HDB, BTO and EC units at rarely-found good locations now have a smaller pool of buyers.
5) The upgraders
Those who can afford the current skyrocketing prices would have already bought their home. The Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD), lower LTV and higher minimum down payment only make the target properties of the upgraders more unreachable.
6) Those who bought in the last three years
Cooling measures that kick in over the last three years mean higher transaction costs (ABSD, seller’s stamp duty) and reduced monthly return. Even if they can sell in the near future, with only a slight increase in property prices, the chance of them having a profit is slim. That’s why they can’t sell now and are stuck with an overpriced property.
Well, no matter what is going to happen in the property market, at least one party can benefit from the new round of cooling measures.
Here’s to the government. May you enjoy another prosperous year collecting more buyer’s and seller’s stamp duties!
Point 6 not true. Esp for local buyers, remember, local can buy 2 props without absd, also, thrird prop absd was v cheap at 3% too.
phantom_opera
15-01-13, 08:35
CM7 does take away profit from last 3y ... for those who still holding properties will see their capital appreciation potential vastly reduced
PAP has demonstrated that they are willing to sacrifice growth to control housing inflation ... next will be Hong Kong ... Leung will be under attack since Singapore is now way ahead in terms of cooling measures
Love this para
"This is similar to the scenario of carrying out a fogging exercise in the neighborhood for the purpose of pest control. It kills not only mosquitoes and flies, but also lizards, butterflies and other insects that have done no harm but have to sacrifice for a bigger cause."
but can sum up in two words - collateral damage.
Point 6 not true. Esp for local buyers, remember, local can buy 2 props without absd, also, thrird prop absd was v cheap at 3% too.
u sure? :scared-5:
u sure? :scared-5:
Yes, only the 3rd ppty will kena the 3% absd prior to early 2011 i think.
phantom_opera
15-01-13, 09:10
Love this para
"This is similar to the scenario of carrying out a fogging exercise in the neighborhood for the purpose of pest control. It kills not only mosquitoes and flies, but also lizards, butterflies and other insects that have done no harm but have to sacrifice for a bigger cause."
but can sum up in two words - collateral damage.
not only that ... even if you bought in 2009 and try to sell now to lock in huge profit ... they want a cut (except first time SC buyer of course ... but end up sellers must lower price expectation also) :banghead:
best case - flat to -5% for now (but once the 4y SSD is over ... there will be more sellers ... which bring us to next level)
most likely case - -5 to -10%
worst case - -10 to -15%
and for those just sell and lock in profit, if they buy back need to pay ABSD 7% (so it will be difficult to justify the buyback after u factor in buying/selling cost even if market down 10%)
net net, total return is reduced even bought in 2009, like bro BJ said ... perfect CM until don't know what to say
u sure? :scared-5:
Now second property also kena ABSD
I believe the problem now is not the ABSD.. That one only 7% more... It is the 50% LTV and 25% cash downpayment that is the killer.
For example.
Below the CM7
1 million property
BSD - $24600
Downpayment is $400k (100k Cash, 300k CPF)
Total cash in hand needed = $124k
Total CPF in hand needed = $300k
After CM7
ABSD + BSD - $94600
Downpayment is $500k (250k Cash, 250k CPF)
Total cash in hand needed = $346k
Total CPF in hand needed = $250k
U see the difference? U will need $222k more in cash to purchase the second property... hahaha...
It is way to early to feel the impact.
There are many factors not considered yet. The indicator will be the coming gls. If significant drop in bidding price, correction will be imminent. Otherwise developers and buyers will find more loopholes and prices will not go down.
China/HK went through tough times last year but yet still cheong..
See how first. Be ready to strike..
not only that ... even if you bought in 2009 and try to sell now to lock in huge profit ... they want a cut (except first time SC buyer of course ... but end up sellers must lower price expectation also) :banghead:
best case - flat to -5% for now (but once the 4y SSD is over ... there will be more sellers ... which bring us to next level)
most likely case - -5 to -10%
worst case - -10 to -15%
and for those just sell and lock in profit, if they buy back need to pay ABSD 7% (so it will be difficult to justify the buyback after u factor in buying/selling cost even if market down 10%)
net net, total return is reduced even bought in 2009, like bro BJ said ... perfect CM until don't know what to say
Ya.. Like what I say in the other thread... It is like a trap...
Phase 1: Good returns in rental and capital gain
Phase 2: Low borrowing cost
Phase 3: Make it difficult for those who enter to leave (SSD)
Phase 4: Make it difficult for foreigner investor to come in (ABSD)
Phase 5: Make it almost impossible for second timer and foreigner investor to come in (CM7)
Future:
Phase 6: FT (I believe it will be the immigrant policy. If government now announced to continuing tightening FT, then really die die die. As the recent price increased in really based on the fact we are going for the 6 million target)
Phase 7: Interest Rate going up (If USA default=> Recession, Job Cuts, higher borrow cost. If USA don't default, economy will pick up and then inflation then interest rate will go up)
:beats-me-man: :beats-me-man: :beats-me-man: :beats-me-man:
phantom_opera
15-01-13, 09:33
FT policy already tightening .. EP renewal many got rejected ..
We are the Borg
Borg is a collective proper noun for a fictional alien race that appears in the various incarnations of the Star Trek franchise. The Borg are a collection of species that have been turned into cybernetic organisms functioning as drones of the collective or the hive. A pseudo-race, dwelling in the Star Trek universe, the Borg take other species by force into the collective and connect them to "the hive mind"; the act is called assimilation and entails violence, abductions, and injections of cybernetic implants. The Borg's ultimate goal is "achieving perfection".
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/a/a1/Picard_as_Locutus.jpg/220px-Picard_as_Locutus.jpg
For the short term, SPR will rent instead of buy.
Why crash?
For the short term, SPR will rent instead of buy.
Why crash?
Those SPR that are already here should have already rent ba... So the number should be market into the pricing... But if don't have a great increase of SPR, how to digest the great increase in supply from HDB and PC?
The good thing is those who bought in the past 3 years are not going to sell a single unit if they can afford to hold, reason being the cost to aquire a new one is so high. i for one would not be selling any.
i think will be good we can track the number of listings on propertyguru for the next few weeks, my hunch is that owners will withdraw the sales.
The good thing is those who bought in the past 3 years are not going to sell a single unit if they can afford to hold, reason being the cost to aquire a new one is so high. i for one would not be selling any.
i think will be good we can track the number of listings on propertyguru for the next few weeks, my hunch is that owners will withdraw the sales.
If developers start to slash down prices, resale market will follow.
The key lies on developer holding power now and whether global economy will pick up steam this year.
The good thing is those who bought in the past 3 years are not going to sell a single unit if they can afford to hold, reason being the cost to aquire a new one is so high. i for one would not be selling any.
i think will be good we can track the number of listings on propertyguru for the next few weeks, my hunch is that owners will withdraw the sales.
just checked out another unit in my development. buyer still holding firm to asking price, no room for negotiations in spite of the latest CM
prices drop:beats-me-man: ? sales withdrawn :beats-me-man: ? maybe not?
If developers start to slash down prices, resale market will follow.
The key lies on developer holding power now and whether global economy will pick up steam this year.
developers purchased land at record high prices. any slash would be minimal - my guess is a 5% off-the-books discount.
prices crash? maybe not.
developers purchased land at record high prices. any slash would be minimal - my guess is a 5% off-the-books discount.
prices crash? maybe not.
There are many existing unsold projects or land sales bought earlier than recent record high. Developers profit margin is quite high at 30% or more. 10-15% price drop is possible.
There are many existing unsold projects or land sales bought earlier than recent record high. Developers profit margin is quite high at 30% or more. 10-15% price drop is possible.
there is no need for them to slash 10-15%, unless in dire need to shore up cash.
big boys with loads of cash will have no worries. developers like wingtai, with little left in the landbank, are caught between the rock and deep blue sea.
there is no need for them to slash 10-15%, unless in dire need to shore up cash.
big boys with loads of cash will have no worries. developers like wingtai, with little left in the landbank, are caught between the rock and deep blue sea.
I am not saying prices will drop. But giving an alternative views and to point out the fact that property prices are largely dependent on developers and not the resale market.
There are many existing unsold projects or land sales bought earlier than recent record high. Developers profit margin is quite high at 30% or more. 10-15% price drop is possible.
Even if prices drop, will not benefit prop investor unless u are a first timer.
:cool:
Even if prices drop, will not benefit prop investor unless u are a first timer.
:cool:
Yes, i am not buying until absd is removed.
They may make the wrong move:
1) increase coe will make car owners unhappy. So some may switch side to opposition.
2) increase absd will make current owners unhappy. So some may switch side too.
3) helping the complainers. Complainers may not even vote for them.
4) complainers will think more opposition party needed to bring price down further.
phantom_opera
15-01-13, 10:53
there is 90% chance price will correct 10% ... talking about holding power ... who is as powerful as mainland Chinese who can pay 100% cash upfront ... still property prices corrected in China last year under draconian CMs
the danger is those who bought in 2009 eager to cash out at lower capital appreciation because they do not see future capital appreciation potential anymore ... e.g. I bought Caspian 600psf ... b4 CM7 I can sell 1100psf now I just sell 1000psf, 10% drop ... a few sell, bank valuation will go lower
another danger is when 4y SSD expiring .. those sitting at 100k profit may just let go
Who are affected by the new property cooling measures?
5) The upgraders
Those who can afford the current skyrocketing prices would have already bought their home. The Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD), lower LTV and higher minimum down payment only make the target properties of the upgraders more unreachable.
We need to go deeper to look at who are sustaining the property market before CM7. As rightly point up by vip, they are the upgraders buying up mass market PCs. With CM7, this group would find it hard to upgrade with the ABSD, lower LTV and higher downpayment. They would also find it difficult to upgrade without selling their existing homes. They are going to face with the uncertainty of selling their flats at current price 6 months down the road (if they buy resale) or worst still, a couple of years down the road. Without the upgraders, the mass market segment is as good as dead in a few months time.
How long can developers (even with strong balance sheet) keep adding on to their inventories. All you need is a few smaller developers starting to put prices to manage their cash flow and reduce inventories and the market will move the same.
If we could recall the previous stand-still between buyers and developers; bigger developers who need to account to their shareholders cut prices drastically with various big launches at the same time to ignite the market. It was a long stand-still then. In between the long wait, many smaller developers were cutting prices to survive.
Besides external factors, how long the stand still between buyers and developers will determine the magnitude of the price drops.
We only need to look at history to understand how the market works.
there is 90% chance price will correct 10% ... talking about holding power ... who is as powerful as mainland Chinese who can pay 100% cash upfront ... still property prices corrected in China last year under draconian CMs
the danger is those who bought in 2009 eager to cash out at lower capital appreciation because they do not see future capital appreciation potential anymore ... e.g. I bought Caspian 600psf ... b4 CM7 I can sell 1100psf now I just sell 1000psf, 10% drop ... a few sell, bank valuation will go lower
another danger is when 4y SSD expiring .. those sitting at 100k profit may just let go
I think not many people are selling since economy is expected to be better this year. What we can expect is no capital appreciation in H1 this year.
Two of our key trading partners are improving:
China: China economy to rebound in 2013: survey
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/1247624/1/.html
US: US economy to grow 2.5% in 2013
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/755800.shtml
I think not many people are selling since economy is expected to be better this year. What we can expect is no capital appreciation in H1 this year.
Two of our key trading partners are improving:
China: China economy to rebound in 2013: survey
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/1247624/1/.html
US: US economy to grow 2.5% in 2013
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/755800.shtml
I just hope our property mkt will not correct too much.
Else is game over.:cool:
I just hope our property mkt will not correct too much.
Else is game over.:cool:
Rental market will still be resilient. LT property investors only need to hold on, and rent out in the meantime to ride out this uncertain wave, and they will certainly benefit in due course when the CMs are removed.
But there may be a few kan chiong spiders who would unload at a profit, and this may drive the price down temporarily.
In conclusion, LT property investors have no fear because of the strong rental market but ST & over-leveraged investors may be twitching now, esp for the big CCR units.
I just hope our property mkt will not correct too much.
Else is game over.:cool:
Hope the govt has calculated correctly not to crash the market. The alternative (market overheating) is also not healthy for us economically. The prices will soar beyond our reach and that of our chewren.
I think not many people are selling since economy is expected to be better this year. What we can expect is no capital appreciation in H1 this year.
Two of our key trading partners are improving:
China: China economy to rebound in 2013: survey
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/1247624/1/.html
US: US economy to grow 2.5% in 2013
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/755800.shtml
I think we should not look at economy growth... This is nothing to do with property pricing... It is how much is the real income of the people that really matters... GDP can be going like 100% but your salary still the same, you think property price will grow 100% also?
Also now the property is so hot due to the fact they is no other place to invest. Economy uncertainty have make people scare of taking risk. If now, really economy is booming, China GDP go back to double figure, USA and Europe debt issue is being resolve and is also growing... Stock Market is going up and up everyday... Who will still remember about property... And also when economy is booming, FED will increase interest rate to fight inflation for sure.. Interest rate goes up is the killer to Singapore Property as people are buying using loans. Like phantom_opera say, China Property also went down due to cooling measuring despite the fact they are buying property with 100% CASH... What are the chances that our property price remain robust in the event of a 20% drop in price and buy bank start asking for top-up to loans...
phantom_opera
15-01-13, 11:21
ANNOUNCEMENTS
Daily Special: Enjoy additional 4% discount! Limited to first 4 buyers
Guess which developer?? :tsk-tsk:
ANNOUNCEMENTS
Daily Special: Enjoy additional 4% discount! Limited to first 4 buyers
Guess which developer?? :tsk-tsk:
Which one?
The target for CMs has always been on the speculators/marginal players.
It's a balancing game, as more CMs come in and still more marginal players pile in the game. But at some point, a CM will break the backs of these players usually after >70% of these marginal players are already in and there are too few new players to buy off these weak holders/speculators.
Is CM7 the one? Maybe not...coz of interest rates and high employment.
Those who jumped in on 11th January 2013 and signed on the dotted line now sweating.
On 11th January, it seemed like a deal not to be missed because of MTB syndrome. Go home take bath, fell asleep... suddenly wake up on 12th January in cold sweat because prices may drop >10%.
If ABSD 7%, prices drop 10%, I make 3% minimum.
Does not affect those who are not selling.
CM7 does take away profit from last 3y ... for those who still holding properties will see their capital appreciation potential vastly reduced
PAP has demonstrated that they are willing to sacrifice growth to control housing inflation ... next will be Hong Kong ... Leung will be under attack since Singapore is now way ahead in terms of cooling measures
Why Sell? Holding cost is still low? ;)
just checked out another unit in my development. buyer still holding firm to asking price, no room for negotiations in spite of the latest CM
prices drop:beats-me-man: ? sales withdrawn :beats-me-man: ? maybe not?
Why Sell? Holding cost is still low? ;)
yup, as usual. i was just trying my luck to see if can fish some fire sales :D
yup, as usual. i was just trying my luck to see if can fish some fire sales :D
It will be useful if you can create a poll to see how many people here intend to sell below 10% of current market value in the next 3 months. This could be indicative of any price correction going forward.
Hope the govt has calculated correctly not to crash the market. The alternative (market overheating) is also not healthy for us economically. The prices will soar beyond our reach and that of our chewren.
Eventually one of this CM will slow or crash the mkt.
Price can go up :cool:indefinately, hopefully not caught with big baby by then
The target for CMs has always been on the speculators/marginal players.
It's a balancing game, as more CMs come in and still more marginal players pile in the game. But at some point, a CM will break the backs of these players usually after >70% of these marginal players are already in and there are too few new players to buy off these weak holders/speculators.
Is CM7 the one? Maybe not...coz of interest rates and high employment.
the SSD has already killed off most speculators, don't need CM7.
The target for CMs has always been on the speculators/marginal players.
It's a balancing game, as more CMs come in and still more marginal players pile in the game. But at some point, a CM will break the backs of these players usually after >70% of these marginal players are already in and there are too few new players to buy off these weak holders/speculators.
Is CM7 the one? Maybe not...coz of interest rates and high employment.
the SSD has already killed off most speculators, don't need CM7. reiterating for the millionth time, land cost/pricing is the culprit.
the SSD has already killed off most speculators, don't need CM7. reiterating for the millionth time, land cost/pricing is the culprit.
You have already one shot in the heart side with SSD.. CM7 is just another shot at the opp side of the heart just in case someone heart is not in the normal position... If have CM8+, it will be using GPMG to create beehive...
there are those landed owners who have sold their landed will be benefited now.
they will go bargain hunting at HDB or PC...with their ammo.
50% LTV or not is not a problem
Office Boy felt compelled to post this (from Office!) ...
Property prices drop because there are MANY people wanting to sell at prices before the average last done prices.
Look around you ... do you see MANY people like that ?
Currently at least in my office, most, if not all, who owns more than 1 property are holding to it tightly (until the property dont know can breath of not).
As long as interest rates stay low, employment rate is high, no one would want to see their property at prices before the previous persons.
And now worse still, totally no reason to cash out.
Cash out, sit on cash, and wait for inflation to erode your retirement funds ? Watch the $40B from US crashing our shores every month?
Wait for Wanton Noodled to become $10 per plate in hawker centres ?
Trust your instinct, if you wont want to sell, others also wont want to sell.
Another thing ... Money is easy to print, difficult to unprint ... got it ?
Same as Nasi Lemak once move from $1.50 to $2.50, when did it ever move back to $1.50 ?
Think, my friends, Think!
DKSG
Office Boy felt compelled to post this (from Office!) ...
Property prices drop because there are MANY people wanting to sell at prices before the average last done prices.
Look around you ... do you see MANY people like that ?
Currently at least in my office, most, if not all, who owns more than 1 property are holding to it tightly (until the property dont know can breath of not).
As long as interest rates stay low, employment rate is high, no one would want to see their property at prices before the previous persons.
And now worse still, totally no reason to cash out.
Cash out, sit on cash, and wait for inflation to erode your retirement funds ? Watch the $40B from US crashing our shores every month?
Wait for Wanton Noodled to become $10 per plate in hawker centres ?
Trust your instinct, if you wont want to sell, others also wont want to sell.
Another thing ... Money is easy to print, difficult to unprint ... got it ?
Same as Nasi Lemak once move from $1.50 to $2.50, when did it ever move back to $1.50 ?
Think, my friends, Think!
DKSG
Office boy deserve a black belt in property karate. He might be an office boy, but he got brain like a CEO.
Office Boy felt compelled to post this (from Office!) ...
Property prices drop because there are MANY people wanting to sell at prices before the average last done prices.
Look around you ... do you see MANY people like that ?
Currently at least in my office, most, if not all, who owns more than 1 property are holding to it tightly (until the property dont know can breath of not).
As long as interest rates stay low, employment rate is high, no one would want to see their property at prices before the previous persons.
And now worse still, totally no reason to cash out.
Cash out, sit on cash, and wait for inflation to erode your retirement funds ? Watch the $40B from US crashing our shores every month?
Wait for Wanton Noodled to become $10 per plate in hawker centres ?
Trust your instinct, if you wont want to sell, others also wont want to sell.
Another thing ... Money is easy to print, difficult to unprint ... got it ?
Same as Nasi Lemak once move from $1.50 to $2.50, when did it ever move back to $1.50 ?
Think, my friends, Think!
DKSG
*clap clap clap*
Agree the price not that easy to drop, remember Lehman's crisis price only dropped 20%.
Office Boy felt compelled to post this (from Office!) ...
Property prices drop because there are MANY people wanting to sell at prices before the average last done prices.
Look around you ... do you see MANY people like that ?
Currently at least in my office, most, if not all, who owns more than 1 property are holding to it tightly (until the property dont know can breath of not).
As long as interest rates stay low, employment rate is high, no one would want to see their property at prices before the previous persons.
And now worse still, totally no reason to cash out.
Cash out, sit on cash, and wait for inflation to erode your retirement funds ? Watch the $40B from US crashing our shores every month?
Wait for Wanton Noodled to become $10 per plate in hawker centres ?
Trust your instinct, if you wont want to sell, others also wont want to sell.
Another thing ... Money is easy to print, difficult to unprint ... got it ?
Same as Nasi Lemak once move from $1.50 to $2.50, when did it ever move back to $1.50 ?
Think, my friends, Think!
DKSG
Have to agree with you that multiple property owners are not likely to sell since they are capble of buying multiple properties. These owners form the minority or just a small number.
The one to move the market is the mass market upgraders. They are the one who may need to sell off their existing flats or apartments to finance their new purchases. Not all of them could afford to rent out their existing flats and continue with their bridging loans.
The other party who can influence the market is developers. No matter how strong their balance sheets are, they need to account to their shareholders and hence cannot continue to add on to their inventories. All that is needed is some smaller developers to start cutting prices to survive and the market will move likewise.
Of course, the longer the stand-still between buyers and developers will determie the magnitude of price cut bearing unforeseen external factors.
CM7 is really about preventing the masses from buying investment property which was the main force sustaining the market then. If this sector of the market is not moving, it will lead to market readjusting itself.
Agree the price not that easy to drop, remember Lehman's crisis price only dropped 20%.
Wait.. till interest rates kill us all.
Few will resurrect.
Office Boy felt compelled to post this (from Office!) ...
Property prices drop because there are MANY people wanting to sell at prices before the average last done prices.
Look around you ... do you see MANY people like that ?
Currently at least in my office, most, if not all, who owns more than 1 property are holding to it tightly (until the property dont know can breath of not).
As long as interest rates stay low, employment rate is high, no one would want to see their property at prices before the previous persons.
And now worse still, totally no reason to cash out.
Cash out, sit on cash, and wait for inflation to erode your retirement funds ? Watch the $40B from US crashing our shores every month?
Wait for Wanton Noodled to become $10 per plate in hawker centres ?
Trust your instinct, if you wont want to sell, others also wont want to sell.
Another thing ... Money is easy to print, difficult to unprint ... got it ?
Same as Nasi Lemak once move from $1.50 to $2.50, when did it ever move back to $1.50 ?
Think, my friends, Think!
DKSG
:doh: Right on, well said. I have been constipating on some S&P 500 ETFs since 2007/2008. Had a small holding before the fateful free fall. Everyone was selling, fire sales all over. I decided to hold (i bought at all time high). In the last few months, after so many years (5yrs), I see my holdings performing above the highest before the market crashed in 2007/2008. I am in the Green !. Unbelievable and we are today talking about the "Fiscal Cliff". To me, the market is performing better now in the "cliff" than it was back in 2007/2008. I am not selling out my holdings. Just my 2 cents LT view for those with a strong heart.
Days of $2.5 cinema tickets, now hovering about $9, $0.5 kopi now at $1.40 to $1.80 (toastBox?). Salary has not increased at this rate for the last 10-20yrs. HDB prices from below 50K for a 5 roomer in the 80s now easily $500K to $1+m. And we do have $10+ ramen noodles in Bugis+, though not Wanton Mee (akan datang). Thinking aloud, Fastfood joints will eventually be cheaper and value for $$ (recent promo on $5 meals) than the kopitiams, food republic, banquet chains etc. LT, once up, will never move back. Corrections are temporary noise. Keep to your instincts, hedge your $$. Do not be influenced by the herd mentality.
IT does not deter those with with a couple of fully-paid up properties enjoying the passive income. :D
Wait.. till interest rates kill us all.
Few will resurrect.
Wait.. till interest rates kill us all.
Few will resurrect.
Interest rate won't kill us, an epidemic might.
life still goes on even if interest rate moves up.
New opportunity will arise:cool:
:doh: Right on, well said. I have been constipating on some S&P 500 ETFs since 2007/2008. Had a small holding before the fateful free fall. Everyone was selling, fire sales all over. I decided to hold (i bought at all time high). In the last few months, after so many years (5yrs), I see my holdings performing above the highest before the market crashed in 2007/2008. I am in the Green !. Unbelievable and we are today talking about the "Fiscal Cliff". To me, the market is performing better now in the "cliff" than it was back in 2007/2008. I am not selling out my holdings. Just my 2 cents LT view for those with a strong heart.
Days of $2.5 cinema tickets, now hovering about $9, $0.5 kopi now at $1.40 to $1.80 (toastBox?). Salary has not increased at this rate for the last 10-20yrs. HDB prices from below 50K for a 5 roomer in the 80s now easily $500K to $1+m. And we do have $10+ ramen noodles in Bugis+, though not Wanton Mee (akan datang). Thinking aloud, Fastfood joints will eventually be cheaper and value for $$ (recent promo on $5 meals) than the kopitiams, food republic, banquet chains etc. LT, once up, will never move back. Corrections are temporary noise. Keep to your instincts, hedge your $$. Do not be influenced by the herd mentality.
Sometimes we like to console ourselves by comparing properties to necessities. 2nd properties onwards is not necessity but investment. Overinvestment can cause upset and reset the price to balance out the profit. Those who have, will learn to share with those who have not. Price correction is not a bad thing. As long as you become the evergreen by virtue of your next generation or somehow.
Prices are not going to decline more than 5% until the economy takes a sharp dive or interest rates start rising aggressively. I am expecting 0 % to -5% movement in prices.
The govt is not trying to reduce prices but will be more than happy if prices stablise for a few years or at least until the next elections. They are hoping for a perfect equilibrium.
:doh: Right on, well said. I have been constipating on some S&P 500 ETFs since 2007/2008. Had a small holding before the fateful free fall. Everyone was selling, fire sales all over. I decided to hold (i bought at all time high). In the last few months, after so many years (5yrs), I see my holdings performing above the highest before the market crashed in 2007/2008. I am in the Green !. Unbelievable and we are today talking about the "Fiscal Cliff". To me, the market is performing better now in the "cliff" than it was back in 2007/2008. I am not selling out my holdings. Just my 2 cents LT view for those with a strong heart.
Days of $2.5 cinema tickets, now hovering about $9, $0.5 kopi now at $1.40 to $1.80 (toastBox?). Salary has not increased at this rate for the last 10-20yrs. HDB prices from below 50K for a 5 roomer in the 80s now easily $500K to $1+m. And we do have $10+ ramen noodles in Bugis+, though not Wanton Mee (akan datang). Thinking aloud, Fastfood joints will eventually be cheaper and value for $$ (recent promo on $5 meals) than the kopitiams, food republic, banquet chains etc. LT, once up, will never move back. Corrections are temporary noise. Keep to your instincts, hedge your $$. Do not be influenced by the herd mentality.
As a parallel, the population can't reduce to 3mil (ever) over the next months or years...Think! Think!:sleep:
Prices are not going to decline more than 5% until the economy takes a sharp dive or interest rates start rising aggressively. I am expecting 0 % to -5% movement in prices.
The govt is not trying to reduce prices but will be more than happy if prices stablise for a few years or at least until the next elections. They are hoping for a perfect equilibrium.
The government is trying to bring down prices. See my quote below from another thread.
DPM Therman said in no uncertain term that unless prices soften, none of the temporary measures would be withdrawn. I could not imagine prices start to move up again within a year. If this is so, we can expect more cooling measures. The government is so determine to tame the property prices even to the extend of reducing economic growth. I think we can trust the government this time round.
From what i understand, measures are here to stay unless prices soften which means slight correction. But that does not mean government's intention is to cause a correction.
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance Tharman Shanmugaratnam described the package as the "most significant to date" and stronger than those introduced in previous rounds. Some measures will be temporary and will be reviewed later, once prices soften, while others are likely to stay for the long term.
"We're not intending to engineer a market crash," he added.
From what i understand, measures are here to stay unless prices soften which means slight correction. But that does not mean government's intention is to cause a correction.
DPM refused to get into a number (percent) when asked and that was understandable. This way, the government can manage the market as she see fits.
Agree the price not that easy to drop, remember Lehman's crisis price only dropped 20%.
that was banks,in trouble.
now we have nations in trouble.
which's more serious??
The good thing is those who bought in the past 3 years are not going to sell a single unit if they can afford to hold, reason being the cost to aquire a new one is so high. i for one would not be selling any.
i think will be good we can track the number of listings on propertyguru for the next few weeks, my hunch is that owners will withdraw the sales.
What about a PC-turned EC owner who bought new launched unit (TOP 2013 or beginning 2014) intending to sell out their EC at current peak? Are they still buyer out there willing to buy or they must lower down their unit in order to sell? :confused:
PropertyGuru is just a website with tons of agents, whose art is to either con the buyer to buy or con the seller to sell.
I predict that there will still be ads put up, but many will be just empty
ads without actual sellers.
Now the job is to con sellers to sell, how does agents do it ?
Put up ads with ridiculously high asking prices, then when sellers see it, they will quickly contact the agent. For example, advertise some units at Cosmopolitan for $2,800 psf. Then owerns confirm will be curious enough to contact agent.
Office Boy kenna this many many times already - hehe! But managed to pull off the selling at the very high psf they tried to con me!
DKSG
We need to go deeper to look at who are sustaining the property market before CM7. As rightly point up by vip, they are the upgraders buying up mass market PCs. With CM7, this group would find it hard to upgra
We only need to look at history to understand how the market works.
++LIKED. As always, I enjoyed vip and leeds perspectives on properties . :)
++LIKED. As always, I enjoyed vip and leeds perspectives on properties . :)
Thanks. They are just my two-cent worth. Glad you find one or two points that make sense to you. :)
++LIKED. As always, I enjoyed vip and leeds perspectives on properties . :)
I concur:cheers3:
++LIKED. As always, I enjoyed vip and leeds perspectives on properties . :)
I concur:cheers3:
Glad to note that you guys are enjoying my contributions. It makes my day. Thank you!
I would like to see how the next GLS ends.
I would like to see how the next GLS ends.
No need to wait for GLS.
Just wait for this weekend to see how QBay sales is like.
With each CM, developers have been trained how to bounce back quickly and convince buyers what they have always suspected - Property Prices in Singapore, in the long run, will always go UP!
Actually not only Singaporeans, even the China Chinese, India Indians, Americans, Europeans (you should have noticed that there is signfiicant increase in the number of Europeans in Singapore by now - Eastern and Western both also got a lot!) have already learnt this open secret of Singapore!
I wont go through the equation how government achieve this. Think as Singaporeans, we all shld already know.
DKSG
I would like to see how the next GLS ends.
There will be 5 ECs GLS for sale in 1H 2013 yielding a total of 3,110 units.
1 in Woodlands (Mar), 1 in Anchorvale (Apr), 2 in Punggol(Apr and June) and 1 in Yuan Ching road (June).
If you are the developer, would you bid low or high?
There will be 5 ECs GLS for sale in 1H 2013 yielding a total of 3,110 units.
1 in Woodlands (Mar), 1 in Anchorvale (Apr), 2 in Punggol(Apr and June) and 1 in Yuan Ching road (June).
If you are the developer, would you bid low or high?
Bid low may not get the land.
Officially our forummer is Expert status as conferred by independent site.
Well done!
http://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/exclusive/who-are-ones-most-affected-new-property-measures
Allthepies
16-01-13, 11:50
There will be 5 ECs GLS for sale in 1H 2013 yielding a total of 3,110 units.
1 in Woodlands (Mar), 1 in Anchorvale (Apr), 2 in Punggol(Apr and June) and 1 in Yuan Ching road (June).
If you are the developer, would you bid low or high?
I will bid very very very high for site near MRT. The rest of the sites I would not bid :D Location, Location, Location
East Lover
16-01-13, 11:58
Officially our forummer is Expert status as conferred by independent site.
Well done!
http://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/exclusive/who-are-ones-most-affected-new-property-measures
But is he a forumer from here??
East Lover
16-01-13, 12:18
But is he a forumer from here??
So VIP = propertysoul ? :confused:
Officially our forummer is Expert status as conferred by independent site.
Well done!
http://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/exclusive/who-are-ones-most-affected-new-property-measures
Thank you for letting me know that my humble blog post was quoted somewhere.
To the media, an "expert" must be the spokesperson of an institution from the property industry. So I am no expert but just an ordinary property investor with no vested interest.
Bid low may not get the land.
Yes. If I were a developer, I could possibly bid quite high to get the land.
With the latest CM, developers cannot launch EC units until 15 months later or completion of foundation works, whichever is earlier.
The last EC land sold was in Dec 2012. Assuming it is launched in June 2013, there will not be any ECs launched after that until at least 12 months later, in June 2014 (assuming award of the first EC Feb 2013 tender in Mar 2013). That's one whole year without any EC launching.
Would this time lag create a pent up demand enough to ensure units are snapped up the moment they are launched?
5,115 ECs were sold last year. So roughly, this will be the pent up demand for one year.
But, this is only for the first few EC GLS up for tender in the next few months. After June 2014, there will be ECs launched every month.
Another thing is...there will be no ECs competing with PCs for one year, meaning prices of PCs may not go down. Those needing ECs now because of salary limit, loan tenure etc, may settle for PCs instead, since got no EC around.
The developers take about 9 months to get the approval for sale.
This includes the BCA approval etc.
So, effectively 15-9 months, 6 months delay in the launch
The developers take about 9 months to get the approval for sale.
This includes the BCA approval etc.
So, effectively 15-9 months, 6 months delay in the launch
The time gap is getting shorter. Some recent developments:
1. Citylife@Tampines: Contract awarded: 14 May 2012. Launched: Dec 2012. 7 months.
2. Heron Bay: Contract awarded: 6 Mar 2012. Launched: Sep 2012. 6 months.
3. Forestville : Contract awarded: 7 May 2012. Launched: Nov 2012. 6 months.
4. La Fiesta (Not EC) : Contract awarded: 15 Jun 2012. Launched: Jan 2013. 7 months.
Thank you for letting me know that my humble blog post was quoted somewhere.
To the media, an "expert" must be the spokesperson of an institution from the property industry. So I am no expert but just an ordinary property investor with no vested interest.
Ok, more like you Inspired them...
Guvment sending signals today thru Lui TY.
More MRT lines coming up.
Buy for the long term sure ok.
toiletsiao
17-01-13, 09:22
Guvment sending signals today thru Lui TY.
More MRT lines coming up.
Buy for the long term sure ok.
SINGAPORE: Singapore will have two new MRT lines, while three existing lines will be extended. These will double the rail network stretch to 360 kilometres, compared with the current 178 kilometres.
By then, eight in 10 households will have a train station within a 10-minute walk, compared with about six in 10 currently.
These plans for the rail network followed a review of the Land Transport Master Plan by the Land Transport Authority (LTA).
Transport Minister Lui Tuck Yew announced the new developments when he visited Chinatown Station of the Downtown Line on Thursday.
The new lines are the Cross Island Line (CRL) and Jurong Region Line (JRL).
The CRL will run from Jurong Industrial Estate and pass through areas such as West Coast, Bukit Timah, Ang Mo Kio, Punggol and Pasir Ris before ending in Changi. The 50-kilometre line, which is expected to be completed by 2030, will be connected to all existing lines.
It is expected to relieve the load of the existing East-West and North-East lines and shorten journey times significantly. For example, it takes about 40 minutes to get from Punggol to Pasir Ris by bus. With the CRL, it will take 10 to 15 minutes.
The other new line -- Jurong Region Line -- will be completed in 2025. The 20-kilometre line will pass through areas such as Jurong West, Jurong Industrial District, West Coast, Choa Chu Kang and potential new developments in Tengah.
Those travelling from the North to Jurong, like students of Nanyang Technological University, can skip Jurong East Station on the East-West Line.
Three existing lines -- the Circle Line (CCL), Downtown Line (DTL) and North-East Line (NEL) -- will be extended.
The CCL will be four kilometres longer -- to close the link between HarbourFront and Marina Bay stations and save commuters the hassle of making multiple transfers. The extension, which will also pass through Keppel, is expected to be completed by 2025.
The DTL will be two kilometres longer by 2025 -- to run through the East Coast area. It will be connected to the East West Line and the Eastern Region Line, which will be ready by 2020, so that commuters can transfer between the Downtown Line and Eastern Region Line in the east.
As for the NEL, two kilometres will be added by 2030 -- in tandem with new developments in Punggol -- to serve Punggol North, including the new Punggol Downtown.
The LTA is also exploring the possibility of an additional station between Sembawang and Yishun stations on the North-South Line, in anticipation of future developments in the area.
wow, so many lines. Easily lost in the MRT jungle:confused:
Someone should come out with an app to recommend the MRT line to take for getting from point A to B.
wow, so many lines. Easily lost in the MRT jungle:confused:
Someone should come out with an app to recommend the MRT line to take for getting from point A to B.
just look at london and paris line. that is where we are heading eventually (may not get to see it tho')
every place will be near MRT literally.
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