View Full Version : QE4 is coming?
phantom_opera
09-12-12, 15:12
In a few days time, US Fed will need to announce what to do after Op Twist stopped in Dec 2012 .... market basically expects further expansion of balance sheet by 40b per month (with existing purchase of MBS at 45b per month) ... so comes Jan 2013, US Fed balance sheet will probably expand at 85b per month, to give an idea, it is kind of printing 200 units of recent Prince Charles Crescent top bid per month
Sooner or later, US Fed will hold all MBS and long term UST :doh:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/09-2/20121006_ubs1_0.png
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/09-2/20121006_ubs2.png
We are living in ever interesting world
phantom_opera
09-12-12, 15:16
In expectation of further printing action from Helicopter Ben, it is of little wonder that TIPS returns 8% this year
The iShares Barclays Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Bond Fund (NYSEArca: TIP) has posted a total return of 8% this year and holds nearly $23 billion in assets
http://www.etftrends.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/tips-etf-inflation.png
Allthepies
09-12-12, 15:20
so we are expecting >20% return in equity investment for next year too? :D:D
phantom_opera
09-12-12, 15:29
China and the corporations of China under the 5 year plan are directed specifically to secure food, raw materials, energy and stability for the Chinese Nation, QE3 and QE4 are in my opinion aimed at allowing US companies access to the funds to compete at a global level in the acquisition of these resources at the expense of internal inflation and other by products of Quantitative Easing.
With an impressive uncatalogued of overseas investments, deals and ripening relationships, China is planning 50 years ahead for its own supply of the finite commodities. It is leaving every other country stranded on the starting line. Some of them are even facing backwards.
Bernanke is the first Westerner to answer the challenge.
:rolleyes:
China and the corporations of China under the 5 year plan are directed specifically to secure food, raw materials, energy and stability for the Chinese Nation, QE3 and QE4 are in my opinion aimed at allowing US companies access to the funds to compete at a global level in the acquisition of these resources at the expense of internal inflation and other by products of Quantitative Easing.
With an impressive uncatalogued of overseas investments, deals and ripening relationships, China is planning 50 years ahead for its own supply of the finite commodities. It is leaving every other country stranded on the starting line. Some of them are even facing backwards.
Bernanke is the first Westerner to answer the challenge.
:rolleyes:
U are right indeed. Green revolution has failed. Crops yield is not going to increase very much anymore. We very much hit the limit of genetic modification. The dream of infinite power source from nuclear, solar and wind is also hit the plateau. A good example would be a bio fuel where it actually take away a large portion of food producing farm land for the sake of making fuel for car. No more cheap energy and food, therefore there is not going to be enough for everybody in the future. The only way inflation is heading is up. From now on additional efficiency on food front is at the cost of energy front and vice versa. All the countries now (especially USA) is jockeying to buy tommorow resouces at the current price by running into debt. Should they have a great confident that tomorrow technology can solve the scarcity they will not rack up huge debt as the current level. Because they don't have the technology.
Interesting I always learn something new in this forum . We need more such post !
these are good insight
thanks, learnt something today
Allthepies
09-12-12, 16:20
nice theory; boost my confidence tat holding money in bank is not the right thing to do.
so we are expecting >20% return in equity investment for next year too? :D:D
I am game for it.
very insightful thread. this forum have alot of guru in everything. for me, i am guru in nothing. so have to learn. :D
The iShares Barclays Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Bond Fund (NYSEArca: TIP) has posted a total return of 8% this year and holds nearly $23 billion in assets
is this a good fund to invest in for protection of capital?
phantom_opera
10-12-12, 09:29
GUNNEDAH, Australia (AP) - Mr Tony Clift's family has plowed the rich black soil of Australia's Liverpool Plains for six generations. The thought of selling never crossed his mind - until a Chinese company came to town.
Shenhua Watermark Coal offered to buy farms at unheard-of prices. The decision wasn't easy, Mr Clift says. His pioneer ancestors settled the land in 1832. But farming is a business nowadays, and selling his 2,600ha made business sense.
"If someone offers you a whole heap of money, you've got to take it," says the 50-year-old father of two, sitting at the kitchen table of the palatial hilltop home he built with the windfall. A sea of yellow stretches out below, canola fields planted on less fertile land he bought 40km to the north.
Soaring coal prices fueled by China's economic growth have made mining parts of the Australian landscape far more lucrative than farming it. It's one example of how China's emergence as a global trading power may transform countries in ways never contemplated and not yet fully understood.
phantom_opera
10-12-12, 09:33
Tripolar:
1. US / Europe / Japan i.e. G7
2. BRIC
3. Resource rich countries e.g. AUZ, IND, Saudi, Canada
With rise of baby boomers in BRIC, we are seeing huge demand on resources (food, commodities), it is no wonder that oil price surged from 20USD to 100USD and now China is buying farm land in AUD for unheard of prices
In other words, even if US Fed never prints, we will expect much higher prices for food / commodities .... fresh food price will be much higher as China/India middle class demands higher quality .. it also explain why I am paying higher and higher prices for high quality Chinese herbs :doh:
With this, we see Arab Spring, South China Sea conflict, Diayu Island dispute, shift of wealth to owners of resources ...
Even Singapore has its own Arab Spring ... the lowest strata of society cannot survive in high inflationary environment without help from the garmen (PUB bill pegged to oil price, fresh food price soars)
Rising land, rental, COE, labour, material and food costs are all pointing to bad inflation. Next year all these will be fully factored in and we might see more unhappiness from the lower to middle working classes.
Rising land, rental, COE, labour, material and food costs are all pointing to bad inflation. Next year all these will be fully factored in and we might see more unhappiness from the lower to middle working classes.
Will they be better off in a recession?
phantom_opera
10-12-12, 10:04
Similarly in SG:
1. PAP
2. Rich consumers / biz owners (REITs, property developers, banks)
3. Those who own resources - land, properties, farm land in MY/IND
4. Future underclass where saving is eroded by inflation
group (2) is going everywhere buying GLS, enbloc, lands in MY/IND ...and they will take their biz private so they can hold long long (read SC Global)
Will they be better off in a recession?
I doubt prices will come down a lot, as most of them are sunken in costs and controlled by the government e.g. land, COE. Wages will come down a lot though, so recession might make things even worse. In another word, no way out for the lower income group. Middle income group still has some options.
Similarly in SG:
1. PAP
2. Rich consumers / biz owners (REITs, property developers, banks)
3. Those who own resources - land, properties, farm land in MY/IND
4. Future underclass where saving is eroded by inflation
group (2) is going everywhere buying GLS, enbloc, lands in MY/IND ...and they will take their biz private so they can hold long long (read SC Global)
Yup, it is now a fight over resources that can yield cash flow in future.
I doubt prices will come down a lot, as most of them are sunken in costs and controlled by the government e.g. land, COE. Wages will come down a lot though, so recession might make things even worse. In another word, no way out for the lower income group. Middle income group still has some options.
Recession brings everyone on a "more" equal platform. "Opportunities" arises with "recession".
Inflation widens the "gap". The impact to rich is minimal comparative to the lesser.
In a few days time, US Fed will need to announce what to do after Op Twist stopped in Dec 2012 .... market basically expects further expansion of balance sheet by 40b per month (with existing purchase of MBS at 45b per month) ... so comes Jan 2013, US Fed balance sheet will probably expand at 85b per month, to give an idea, it is kind of printing 200 units of recent Prince Charles Crescent top bid per month
Sooner or later, US Fed will hold all MBS and long term UST :doh:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/09-2/20121006_ubs1_0.png
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/09-2/20121006_ubs2.png
We are living in ever interesting world
I've already warned MR B on 5th Oct 2012.. :D
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=12285&page=1528
All these are tell tale signs that price will be looking UP UP UP further in the coming months
I have already warned MR B once during Aug this year.. just be prepared for another round in Feb/Mar next year..
Recession brings everyone on a "more" equal platform. "Opportunities" arises with "recession".
Inflation widens the "gap". The impact to rich is minimal comparative to the lesser.
I tot recession will allow the upper and middle -come classes to mop the cheaper assets, while the lower-income classes have to be more prudent and unable to capitalise on the opportunities. When the recession ends, then the gap will widen even further just like what happened in 2008-2009.
I tot recession will allow the upper and middle -come classes to mop the cheaper assets, while the lower-income classes have to be more prudent and unable to capitalise on the opportunities. When the recession ends, then the gap will widen even further just like what happened in 2008-2009.
The upper and middle income classes will get burn by stocks lar.....
The lower income do not dabble in stocks...
So the division will be less...
But once recession over, the middle class got chance to move up...
The lower class (sad to say this) will stay below.... Some will move up... Very few... Because in Singapore, we are very education focus... They do not have opportunities to start biz as start up cost very high... In the past, this lower class got very good chance... Labour low, shop prices low, rental low... Today, everything high !!!! :eek::eek::eek:
So this recent round of property increase... Many middle income who bot, actually elevated themselves... The "higher income" who did not buy, found they wealth same as the middle income who "invested".
Those who bot many, keok tio GL.
:cheers4::cheers4::cheers4:
The upper and middle income classes will get burn by stocks lar.....
The lower income do not dabble in stocks...
:cheers4::cheers4::cheers4:
who say lower income dun dabble stocks? I got play leh. kenah burn. become lower lower income.
who say lower income dun dabble stocks? I got play leh. kenah burn. become lower lower income.
Bro, what is your definition of lower income.
Can you please share the salary bracket range???
Hahahahaha
Definition here
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/papers/people/op-s17.pdf
U are right indeed. Green revolution has failed. Crops yield is not going to increase very much anymore. We very much hit the limit of genetic modification. The dream of infinite power source from nuclear, solar and wind is also hit the plateau. A good example would be a bio fuel where it actually take away a large portion of food producing farm land for the sake of making fuel for car. No more cheap energy and food, therefore there is not going to be enough for everybody in the future. The only way inflation is heading is up. From now on additional efficiency on food front is at the cost of energy front and vice versa. All the countries now (especially USA) is jockeying to buy tommorow resouces at the current price by running into debt. Should they have a great confident that tomorrow technology can solve the scarcity they will not rack up huge debt as the current level. Because they don't have the technology.
Err..... recently they discovered water on the Moon or something like that rite...:D
Sorry I not so deep like you bros.
Bro, what is your definition of lower income.
Can you please share the salary bracket range???
Hahahahaha
i think............ cannot afford mt sinai.. is considered lower income
since 7k can afford mt sinai.. my salary only 3.5k.. coz i only afford half the price.. sollie.. less than half.
i think my salary 2k
Err..... recently they discovered water on the Moon or something like that rite...:D
Sorry I not so deep like you bros.
I am grateful enough they invented viagra....
i think............ cannot afford mt sinai.. is considered lower income
since 7k can afford mt sinai.. my salary only 3.5k.. coz i only afford half the price.. sollie.. less than half.
i think my salary 2k
Bro, u dont qualify !!! Hahahahaha
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/papers/people/op-s17.pdf
Paiseh... if your salary really 2k, I think I better stop sharing things with you liao....
:scared-2::scared-2::scared-2:
I am grateful enough they invented viagra....
Tongkat Ali. Go green
Bro, u dont qualify !!! Hahahahaha
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/papers/people/op-s17.pdf
Paiseh... if your salary really 2k, I think I better stop sharing things with you liao....
:scared-2::scared-2::scared-2:
wah bro i really respect u man.. homework do gao-gao.. :not-worthy: :not-worthy: you statistician isit?
phantom_opera
10-12-12, 14:11
Bro, u dont qualify !!! Hahahahaha
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/papers/people/op-s17.pdf
Paiseh... if your salary really 2k, I think I better stop sharing things with you liao....
:scared-2::scared-2::scared-2:
interesting ratio of P90 to P10 is 9x (i.e. 9k against 1k lol) :rolleyes:
Bro, u dont qualify !!! Hahahahaha
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/papers/people/op-s17.pdf
Paiseh... if your salary really 2k, I think I better stop sharing things with you liao....
:scared-2::scared-2::scared-2:
I read the report.
Median income != Middle income right?
It's only $2,588 in 2010.... can't even afford a 5rm HDB.
phantom_opera
10-12-12, 14:13
I read the report.
Median income != Middle income right?
It's only $2,588 in 2010.... can't even afford a 5rm HDB.
brother P90/P10 is 9x .. there is a huge gap between rich and poor in terms of median income
more accurate if we use this data in a property forum:
for those family staying in PC, median family income include cpf is 14.5k in 2011
for those family staying in 5rHDB, median family income include cpf is 8.8k in 2011
wah bro i really respect u man.. homework do gao-gao.. :not-worthy: :not-worthy: you statistician isit?
Bro, just google...
The one that knows how to google best wins !!! Everything is an art form... You need to be in the top 20% to win...
Bro, really, I already made my moolah both in work and properties... I here to share, share.... I really do all my homework on props... No joke... All the investments in the 2000s for the props were all pure sweat... Not tikam one leh....
Do your homework and you will be rewarded... Dont know how many times I must say this to you.... But this will be the last time I say this...
Bro, sometimes you read too deep into my message... Trust me, what goes up, will come down. What goes down, may go up. See the diff (one is will and the other is may).
So do your homework.... Be prepared to cash out at the appropriate time. How many you want to cash out is up to you !!! But if you have a couple, please cash out at least 1 when you feel the time is there...
Today, u lucky - I in a mood to share...
:cheers4::cheers4:
Trust me, what goes up, will come down. What goes down, may go up. See the diff (one is will and the other is may).
I thrust you la brudder... no sweat. just use viagra or your favorite tongkat bali
the may will turn to WILL.
provided foundation not broken la...
I thrust you la brudder... no sweat. just use viagra or your favorite tongkat bali
the may will turn to WILL.
provided foundation not broken la...
Bro, thank you for the thrust. As you noticed, there is a "no entry" sign. So no, I not interested in your thrust. Beware thy guillotine or thy stick will be beheaded. Hahahahaha
I thrust you la brudder... no sweat. just use viagra or your favorite tongkat bali
the may will turn to WILL.
provided foundation not broken la...
I choose may.... Will is sound like a bloke name. I don't dig bloke bro.
I choose may.... Will is sound like a bloke name. I don't dig bloke bro.
LOL. Not even if the WILL is YOUNG?
buttercarp
10-12-12, 14:35
I thrust you la brudder... no sweat. just use viagra or your favorite tongkat bali
the may will turn to WILL.
provided foundation not broken la...
Mcm, your "thrust" sounds familiar.
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=15488
See post #7.
Bro, thrust a woman to sniff out best deals always ok!
Your "thrust" sounds familiar.
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=15488
See post #7
aiyo why u associate me with that gay in some village... the village in pasir panjang issit... lol
i only like pussies and MM (mimi).... u forgot liao meh sister...
i think not oni your google skills power your forum search skills oso lagi powerz sia
aiyo why u associate me with that gay in some village... the village in pasir panjang issit... lol
i only like pussies and MM (mimi).... u forgot liao meh sister...
i think not oni your google skills power your forum search skills oso lagi powerz sia
I trust buttercarp... Her powers are beyond your comprehension !!!!
:scared-1::scared-1::scared-1::scared-1::scared-1:
buttercarp
10-12-12, 14:45
aiyo why u associate me with that gay in some village... the village in pasir panjang issit... lol
i only like pussies and MM (mimi).... u forgot liao meh sister...
i think not oni your google skills power your forum search skills oso lagi powerz sia
LOL, I just type in google search "carbuncle, thrust, condosingapore".
It is easy as ABC :) .
LOL, I just type in google search "carbuncle, thrust, condosingapore".
It is easy as ABC :) .
i goggled 'thrust condosingapore' and guess what
http://www.condosingapore.com/forums/showpost.php?p=332702&postcount=18
'nuff said. lol
Bro, just google...
The one that knows how to google best wins !!! Everything is an art form... You need to be in the top 20% to win...
Bro, really, I already made my moolah both in work and properties... I here to share, share.... I really do all my homework on props... No joke... All the investments in the 2000s for the props were all pure sweat... Not tikam one leh....
Do your homework and you will be rewarded... Dont know how many times I must say this to you.... But this will be the last time I say this...
Bro, sometimes you read too deep into my message... Trust me, what goes up, will come down. What goes down, may go up. See the diff (one is will and the other is may).
So do your homework.... Be prepared to cash out at the appropriate time. How many you want to cash out is up to you !!! But if you have a couple, please cash out at least 1 when you feel the time is there...
Today, u lucky - I in a mood to share...
:cheers4::cheers4:
haha,bro, everybody know how to google. but u need to know WHAT to google.
anyway appreciate your sharing. there is really alot of homework to do still. :doh: :doh:
Mcm, your "thrust" sounds familiar.
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=15488
See post #7.
All these "thrust" talk sending me to a trip down to the memory lane when I was still a teenager and was busy educating my self with "imported novel" at kinokuniya bookshop. Surely enough, I wasn't disappointed.
buttercarp
10-12-12, 16:05
LOL....
Puns are humourous.
I remembered once during an exam, a professor, the tester, asked where were his 2 testees and the whole class burst out laughing.
2 days more to fed meeting n counting down
2 days more to fed meeting n counting down
4 more days to CM7...
buttercarp
10-12-12, 20:23
4 more days to CM7...
Omg.... u so sure it will be in 4 days time?
phantom_opera
11-12-12, 21:30
according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Forty-eight of 49 economists predict the Federal Open Market Committee will purchase Treasuries to bolster an existing program to buy $40 billion in mortgage bonds each month.
The recent spike in inflation is juz e appetiser! Next year will b worse. Record prices coming soon...
phantom_opera
12-12-12, 09:11
【經濟日報專訊】市場預測美國聯儲局周四大有機會宣布QE3.5版，加速熱錢湧港。金管局昨再兩次入市，承接合共120億港元等值美元沽盤，創10月20日以來第最大單日注資規模（
瑞信私人銀行發表港股預測，基本預測恒指12個月目標為23800點，相當於7%升幅；最樂觀估計恒指更可升達27000點，或21%升幅，堪稱投資界「最牛預測」（各行預測見表）。
=> very positive for HSI
4 more days to CM7...
sgp always follow HK.. so maybe 4+7 more days to CM7
buttercarp
12-12-12, 13:44
Was told US$4T tonite
What about this? Which country's debt?
phantom_opera
12-12-12, 13:52
What about this? Which country's debt?
Uncle Sam central bank balance sheet on the way to 4T
phantom_opera
12-12-12, 15:40
PetroChina buys into Australia LNG project
State-run group to pay $1.6bn for BHP stake in Browse
A Chinese auto parts company, Wanxiang, has come to the rescue of cash-strapped A123 Systems, an American high-tech lithium-ion battery maker and centerpiece of the Obama administration’s “green jobs” revolution.
=> signs are everywhere
phantom_opera
12-12-12, 16:36
Wall Street
13292.0
13296.0
+44.0
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