View Full Version : Home supply to see record surge
http://www.straitstimes.com/archive/saturday/premium/money/story/home-supply-see-record-surge-20121027
Home supply to see record surge
35,000 private units will be completed in next two years
Published on Oct 27, 2012
By Esther Teo, Property Reporter
BEDOK and nearby areas will be at the epicentre of a record breaking surge in private home completions over the next two years, new analysis shows.
This burst of construction is, in part, the fruit of recent government efforts to cool the red-hot property market with a bumper release of residential sites.
More than 35,000 private non-landed homes are set to be completed in 2013 and 2014 alone, the National Development Ministry said in Parliament recently.
This is far more than the 9,900 units completed in 2010 and the 11,700 homes built last year. Another 12,500 homes are slated for completion this year.
The greatest number of these new homes will be built in an area known as the Bedok planning area, covering neighbourhoods such as Telok Kurau, Siglap, East Coast Road and Jalan Eunos.
Almost 10 per cent of all non-landed homes - about 3,500 units - built in the two-year period will be in this eastern estate, analysis by property consultancy Colliers International showed.
Examples of new projects in the area include Flamingo Valley, Vacanza@East, Suites@East Coast, The Sound and Waterfront Key.
Colliers' director of research and advisory, Ms Chia Siew Chuin, said a majority of the upcoming projects in Bedok are built on redeveloped private land or collective sale sites.
But while Bedok topped the table for both 2013 and 2014, thousands of homes to be built next year will be in other areas such as Geylang and Hougang. The Bukit Timah and Bukit Merah planning areas rank second and third for 2014.
Ms Chia also flagged the Hougang planning area as one expected to see supply surge over the next two years. It ranks third next year and fourth in 2014.
About 1,240 units - or 9.4 per cent - of the 13,231 non-landed private homes expected to be completed next year are in this north-east planning area. Hougang includes areas such as Upper Serangoon, Yio Chu Kang Road and the Kovan area.
In 2014, the projected number is set to increase to 1,681 units. Its share of the year's total, however, is expected to decline to 7.6 per cent of the 22,042 homes that are slated to be built nationwide.
Projects slated for completion next year include The Minton on the former Minton Rise site, Isuites@Palm on a former landed housing site, and 21 Richards on the former Richards Mansions site.
Projects due to be completed in 2014 include Boathouse, Terrasse and Parc Vera. These three projects are built on land sold by the Government and boast a total of 1,359 units. They represent 81 per cent of the total expected completions of private non-landed homes in Hougang during the year.
Experts note, however, that the expected completions are based on developers' declarations.
The actual completion period may change according to developers' adjustments to their plans or construction schedules, according to market conditions, they add.
International Property Advisor chief executive Ku Swee Yong said that while the Punggol and Sengkang areas do not feature strongly in the official completion figures over the next two years, supply is slated to surge in 2015 and beyond.
"Some of these projects could also be completed ahead of schedule since they have seen strong take-up," he said. "Completions in 2013 and 2014 could total 40,000 units instead."
"Prices of homes in the north-east are expected to stagnate but may not come down as low interest rates mean that buyers can still afford to hold... But we can expect the rental market to be very competitive."
Punggol projects such as the 992-unit Watertown are expected to be completed in 2017 while 882-unit A Treasure Trove is slated for completion in November 2015.
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Looking on the surface, is it not to good to invest in the east for the next couple of years?
rental in the west should hold up well
Probably more releases in other areas as well. They need to keep citizens calm
Sleepyhead
29-10-12, 08:59
Looking on the surface, is it not to good to invest in the east for the next couple of years?
Seems so. East and North-East. Investors should stay clear. Still can buy in West or Central. Or Johor. :p
Seems so. East and North-East. Investors should stay clear. Still can buy in West or Central. Or Johor. :p
I see NE as gem now. After guvment introduced Pungol vision. If materialised, the sheer volume of people there will be amazing. If you go Sengkang swimming complex on weekend, you have to queue 20 mins to wash up after the swim. So crowded. And many with kids. Mostly young ones. In years to come, NE will be shining even brighter.
I see NE as gem now. After guvment introduced Pungol vision. If materialised, the sheer volume of people there will be amazing. If you go Sengkang swimming complex on weekend, you have to queue 20 mins to wash up after the swim. So crowded. And many with kids. Mostly young ones. In years to come, NE will be shining even brighter.
i view it differently...for investment, steer clear of NE as there are too many units TOP in 2014 and beyond, not just private but also BTOs. And as for own stay, also steer clear because you will be cursing and swearing as even if you want to buy a cup of coffee will also need to queue long long...:D
not enough amenities, too many people, infrastructure takes a while to build, road too narrow, not enough breathing space. :doh:
sorry, just my opinion.
prepping for ERL to come up. justify ERL with no. of residence growing in the East.
Will be good for people buying in the East. I think most of the units are in the upper east area and Telok kural area.
Mayer side still relative little new projects.
bakasa2002
29-10-12, 10:38
It's actually strange to read this rpt about the Bedok planning area having lots of supply. I mean they classify TK, Siglap, Eunos and East Coast Road as Bedok???
I thought they would at most include Bedok as an estate, TM area and Bedok Reservoir part, but TK, Eunos???
i view it differently...for investment, steer clear of NE as there are too many units TOP in 2014 and beyond, not just private but also BTOs. And as for own stay, also steer clear because you will be cursing and swearing as even if you want to buy a cup of coffee will also need to queue long long...:D
not enough amenities, too many people, infrastructure takes a while to build, road too narrow, not enough breathing space. :doh:
sorry, just my opinion.
For staying still ok as long as you are prepared for incoveniences for a few years while the amenities catch up but for investment / rental stay away.
For staying still ok as long as you are prepared for incoveniences for a few years while the amenities catch up but for investment / rental stay away.
I got a hunch that URA/MND/HDB is really pouring in a lot more amenities as the population shifts there with sooo many new PC projects completing in 2015-2018. By then, the those BTO upgraders will form the floor for the demand for PC there.
I got a hunch that URA/MND/HDB is really pouring in a lot more amenities as the population shifts there with sooo many new PC projects completing in 2015-2018. By then, the those BTO upgraders will form the floor for the demand for PC there.
by then then who is going to buy their BTO when the all upgrade?? :D price will drop when supply more than demand :scared-4:
by then then who is going to buy their BTO when the all upgrade?? :D price will drop when supply more than demand :scared-4:
Why you no trust guvment to bring in the population meh? Always harping on the TFR...
Why you no trust guvment to bring in the population meh? Always harping on the TFR...
I trust to a certain extent la, but don't think all are going to buy resale in NE rite?? What I mean is, it is a bit imbalance now that NE has so many new flats and so many resale after a few yrs later...no Offence...:)
By the way what is TFR?? :confused:
my 2:2cents:...everywhere becoming so crowded soon people will look to ulu locations to buy house/apt....:cool:...like those outlying areas where birds dont lay eggs..:D
I trust to a certain extent la, but don't think all are going to buy resale in NE rite?? What I mean is, it is a bit imbalance now that NE has so many new flats and so many resale after a few yrs later...no Offence...:)
By the way what is TFR?? :confused:
:cheers3: no offence bro. Just share opinions.
My view is that NE will be super crowded. Most of the buyers are for own stay as the one bedders did not move as fast as the bigger ones. Means mostly ar for own stay.
Have you seen the Pungol vision?
Sleepyhead
29-10-12, 17:42
:cheers3: no offence bro. Just share opinions.
My view is that NE will be super crowded. Most of the buyers are for own stay as the one bedders did not move as fast as the bigger ones. Means mostly ar for own stay.
Have you seen the Pungol vision?
No, what is punggol vision? Please share.
What is TFR?
Agree that NE super crowded. In the old days... Hougang was the end of Singapore. Literally! Nothing else beyond that. Only longkang and jungle...and some kampung houses with chickens running around.
Now, Upper Serangoon Road is perpetually jammed! Everything and everywhere LONG queues! Try boarding the train at Hougang! Cannot get in during peak hours. :banghead:
With all the new flats and PC's coming TOPing..l. I dead to think what things will be like in another 2 years time. I will stay clear of that area for own stay. Investment wise... I'll also stay clear.. Too many to fight lar. I scared. :scared-1:
Sleepyhead
29-10-12, 17:47
Have Read one or two bros here saying that as long as you drop the rent low enough someone will rent...
That may be true for now... But with all the supply coming up.. And some say recession coming... And from the way the banks are firing rather than hiring.. Things may change... I have experienced personally a time where no matter how low still nobody wanted to rent... That was back in 2000 after the Asian crisis. Many flats remained empty. Many have forgotten.
U mean empty PC or HDB? A lot of difference le...:D
Have Read one or two bros here saying that as long as you drop the rent low enough someone will rent...
That may be true for now... But with all the supply coming up.. And some say recession coming... And from the way the banks are firing rather than hiring.. Things may change... I have experienced personally a time where no matter how low still nobody wanted to rent... That was back in 2000 after the Asian crisis. Many flats remained empty. Many have forgotten.
by then then who is going to buy their BTO when the all upgrade?? :D price will drop when supply more than demand :scared-4:
Maybe when they upgrade they keep their hdb and rent out?
I am not vested in punggol. But I would like to add. Punggol21 was coined in 1996 by the govt in1996 and get to an abrupt halt because of 1997 crisis. But it is back and a lot has been done. It will develop into a mature estate eventually. One thing I learnt, what the govt wants, the govt gets.
Can any of you tell me an idea that was coined and did not come true? This is for real. I really cannot think of any. So I treasure your input.
But I do know those that came true.
- marina barrage
- pinnacle
- marina bay
- port shift
- abc park
So I really think punggol will be showcase area. I said I think. I did not say for sure. Because, a black swan may happen and things can get put on hold again.
Life is never certain, but we need to play the % game.
punggol will be attractive to people living in NE, it will not attract people living from other area to move to punggol as there is still a lack of jobs and amenities around that area.
punggol will be attractive to people living in NE, it will not attract people living from other area to move to punggol as there is still a lack of jobs and amenities around that area.
Bro, I have colleagues that travel from kovan/Pasir Ris/yishun etc... to Jurong. Their traveling time is 1 hr and they have been w the coy for >10 yr. they take train.
Bro, I have colleagues that travel from kovan/Pasir Ris/yishun etc... to Jurong. Their traveling time is 1 hr and they have been w the coy for >10 yr. they take train.
if you have been living there, of course your will live there because thats your kampong. What I am saying is that despite all the is happening in Punggol, people living in other more matured estates will not move there because of punggol vision as there is lack of jobs and amenities.
buttercarp
29-10-12, 20:42
Bro, I have colleagues that travel from kovan/Pasir Ris/yishun etc... to Jurong. Their traveling time is 1 hr and they have been w the coy for >10 yr. they take train.
That can mean a few things
- the job in Jurong is paying well
- the job in Jurong has high satisfaction
- they can't find other job that Jurong is offerring
- Jurong is offering a wide variety of jobs
- they are afraid of change and thus stuck with the company for > 10 years, etc etc........
if you have been living there, of course your will live there because thats your kampong. What I am saying is that despite all the is happening in Punggol, people living in other more matured estates will not move there because of punggol vision as there is lack of jobs and amenities.
Bro, open your mind. I don't know how old are u, but check back old newspaper. Sengkang was in the doldrums after 1997. HDB had suplus stocks in Sengkang. At the end, what happened? Today, sengkang is quite hot.
Do the newly weds have choices from HDB? Can u tell me which other estates are building HDB? Serious question. They ballot until sian, they will take up punggol. There are 25k marriages every year. If they want to go back to where they stayed, they most probably need to buy resale. I am not arguing. Just pointing out my observation. You can also point out your reasoning. I am open to accepting ideas. I may be wrong u know.
:cheers2:
That can mean a few things
- the job in Jurong is paying well
- the job in Jurong has high satisfaction
- they can't find other job that Jurong is offerring
- Jurong is offering a wide variety of jobs
- they are afraid of change and thus stuck with the company for > 10 years, etc etc........
Aiyah, why u never say they have a nice boss like me. Sian.
Oops, I say colleague. My bad.
Common sense tells us that the sequence of tenant filling will be CCR -> RCR -> OCR -> HDB if size & rental almost the same right?
Have Read one or two bros here saying that as long as you drop the rent low enough someone will rent...
That may be true for now... But with all the supply coming up.. And some say recession coming... And from the way the banks are firing rather than hiring.. Things may change... I have experienced personally a time where no matter how low still nobody wanted to rent... That was back in 2000 after the Asian crisis. Many flats remained empty. Many have forgotten.
Punggol is much more accessible with KPE now and a megamall coming. If I was a newly wedded couple, I would go for that location. Birds at least starting to lay some eggs there.
Sleepyhead
29-10-12, 22:32
U mean empty PC or HDB? A lot of difference le...:D
Empty PC. Luckily can hold.
Empty PC. Luckily can hold.
Bro, u empty for how long? If 4 month, ok la. My lowest I rented out was 2k for my anchorage. Hahaha. Must weather the storm la. No fish, prawn also can. In bad times. If you play stocks, dividend also shrink wat. Rental is like dividend.
Sleepyhead
29-10-12, 22:37
Common sense tells us that the sequence of tenant filling will be CCR -> RCR -> OCR -> HDB if size & rental almost the same right?
Yes, if all else remains equal... But that's not the case. Choosing a place to stay is also an emotional and logistical decision.. Near parents, near school, near amenities, near work place etc.....
Heehee, common sense also tells us, if the CCR continue to rent out with similar rental as HDB, he will die very fast unless it is fully paid. :D
Common sense tells us that the sequence of tenant filling will be CCR -> RCR -> OCR -> HDB if size & rental almost the same right?
Allthepies
29-10-12, 23:14
Ha ha once again if the place has only residential residential and residential, how good can it be in term of investment??!!
But if u open a Yakun or kopi shop there should earn like hell cause so many hungry people there :D :D
Ha ha once again if the place has only residential residential and residential, how good can it be in term of investment??!!
But if u open a Yakun or kopi shop there should earn like hell cause so many hungry people there :D :D
Bro, u talking about 1) commercial unit or 2) kopi shop selling kopi?
Bro, open your mind. I don't know how old are u, but check back old newspaper. Sengkang was in the doldrums after 1997. HDB had suplus stocks in Sengkang. At the end, what happened? Today, sengkang is quite hot.
Do the newly weds have choices from HDB? Can u tell me which other estates are building HDB? Serious question. They ballot until sian, they will take up punggol. There are 25k marriages every year. If they want to go back to where they stayed, they most probably need to buy resale. I am not arguing. Just pointing out my observation. You can also point out your reasoning. I am open to accepting ideas. I may be wrong u know.
:cheers2:
You got to understand that the whole reason why government is spending so much money in transforming punggol is not because they are trying to make it into the next marina bay or east coast park, but rather to make those newly wed who are allocated flats in ulu punggol to be happy with what they got despite that they are far from the central region, and there is a lack of amenities in that area.
honestly, if you are not living in NE region, when was the last time you actually make it a point to spend a weekend in punggol?
You got to understand that the whole reason why government is spending so much money in transforming punggol is not because they are trying to make it into the next marina bay or east coast park, but rather to make those newly wed who are allocated flats in ulu punggol to be happy with what they got despite that they are far from the central region, and there is a lack of amenities in that area.
honestly, if you are not living in NE region, when was the last time you actually make it a point to spend a weekend in punggol?
Bro, weekend means what? Just pop in to see. If pop in to punggol, I did. I thot the place was nice. I was thunking of buying ATT.
Think about jurong west. This also took the hdb awhile to get people to buy.
All I am saying is ultimately, people will buy hdb in punggol.
You got to understand that the whole reason why government is spending so much money in transforming punggol is not because they are trying to make it into the next marina bay or east coast park, but rather to make those newly wed who are allocated flats in ulu punggol to be happy with what they got despite that they are far from the central region, and there is a lack of amenities in that area.
honestly, if you are not living in NE region, when was the last time you actually make it a point to spend a weekend in punggol?
The amenities at this point indeed sucks. Punggol plaza is a pporly run mall. That's going to change when you have a frasers mall in watertown a few years later. Sengkang's compass point is a fair example of water to expect.
Obviously many didn't pay much attention to NE before the deluge of PC and EC that were launched or are selling now or are going to be launched. The sheer size and volume of people congregating is going to blow one's mind away. It is still quite a laid back, far away place for now. Amenities sporadic. But in time to come, maybe the next 5-10 years, you will see Watertown and Pungol literally change the landscape there. Plans for Coney Island if materialised will be like a Outward bound/Ubin resort for the stressed up middleclass.
Anyway it's my opinion and I freely share. I am not vested in NE but may consider in the future. I like the nature feel of the whole area. Will cycle the whole NE when free this coming weeks.. To feel the vibes..
Oh BTW, TFR = Total Fertility Rate. Just move your fingers you can know more already.
You got to understand that the whole reason why government is spending so much money in transforming punggol is not because they are trying to make it into the next marina bay or east coast park, but rather to make those newly wed who are allocated flats in ulu punggol to be happy with what they got despite that they are far from the central region, and there is a lack of amenities in that area.
honestly, if you are not living in NE region, when was the last time you actually make it a point to spend a weekend in punggol?
I second that and I pity those who got 'conned' into Punggol 21 and actually bought a flat there back in the late 90s. Now only to see a wee bit of light after more than a decade. If these people were given a choice all over again, I'm certain they would not have made the same choice.
http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/singapore/story/coming-over-100000-housing-units-20121030 (http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/singapore/story/coming-over-100000-housing-units-20121030)
Coming up: Over 100,000 housing units
Nearly half of new private properties unsold; HDB to launch 6,400 flats too
Straits Times
Published on Oct 30, 2012
By Rachel Chang
http://www.straitstimes.com/sites/straitstimes.com/files/imagecache/story-gallery-featured/flatscondohdbstcarolinechia2e.jpg (http://www.straitstimes.com/sites/straitstimes.com/files/flatscondohdbstcarolinechia2e.jpg)
The Housing Board (HDB) announced on Monday it will roll out another 6,400 Build-To-Order flats next month in Bedok, Choa Chu Kang, Queenstown, Sengkang and Toa Payoh, bringing its crop of new flats this year to the promised 27,000 - also a record high. -- ST PHOTO: CAROLINE CHIA
The number of new private properties in the pipeline has ballooned to more than 100,000 units at the end of the third quarter, said the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on Monday.
The news may bring cheer to buyers concerned about the persistent uptick in prices but dismay to those who had bought for investment or leasing purposes.
The upcoming private home supply comprises 83,975 private residential units, 9,824 executive condominiums and 10,070 units from land sites that the Government has sold, or that are slated for sale. This is the highest-ever total recorded since data was collected in 2001.
The URA said many of the units will be completed in the next three or four years. More than 35,000 units will be ready next year and in 2014, with the rest completed after that.
More than 36,000 private residential units or about 44 per cent of the upcoming supply remain unsold. Developers have some leeway to hold back units, but not much. A cooling measure last year requires that they build and sell residential units within five years or face a 10 per cent stamp duty.
In addition, the Housing Board (HDB) annouced yesterday it will roll out another 6,400 Build-To-Order flats next month in Bedok, Choa Chua Kang, Queenstown, Sengkang and Toa Payoh, bring its crop of new flats this year to the promised 27,000 - also a record high.
Anybody still planning to head for the party? Looks like the party is ending soon.
bakasa2002
30-10-12, 12:43
I am not vested in punggol. But I would like to add. Punggol21 was coined in 1996 by the govt in1996 and get to an abrupt halt because of 1997 crisis. But it is back and a lot has been done. It will develop into a mature estate eventually. One thing I learnt, what the govt wants, the govt gets.
Can any of you tell me an idea that was coined and did not come true? This is for real. I really cannot think of any. So I treasure your input.
Singapore qualifying for World Cup 2010. Gov want but force to swallow the bitter pill when they realise it was a bridge too far ... :D
Singapore qualifying for World Cup 2010. Gov want but force to swallow the bitter pill when they realise it was a bridge too far ... :D
Have we attained Swiss Standard of Living? :beats-me-man:
Have we attained Swiss Standard of Living? :beats-me-man:
Exceeded. Except for the things we can't change. Like mountains, lakes, snow, weather.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita
buttercarp
30-10-12, 15:35
http://www.straitstimes.com/sites/straitstimes.com/files/imagecache/story-gallery-featured/flatscondohdbstcarolinechia2e.jpg (http://www.straitstimes.com/sites/straitstimes.com/files/flatscondohdbstcarolinechia2e.jpg)
This picture from Leed's post is so picturesque!
I love it.
I can't believe that it is Singapore.
Anybody still planning to head for the party? Looks like the party is ending soon.
I don't understand why the article says nearly half of new private properties are unsold.
According to URA data, as of Sep 2012, there are a total of 83,183 units (including ECs) of which 65,991 have been sold. This translates to 79% sold. It includes both launched and unlaunched units.
If you take only the launched units, the percentage sold is 90%!!
So, is the article misleading or what?
phantom_opera
30-10-12, 15:56
Just read MAS announcement, who u trust? A bunch of economic wizards with supercomputers and real time data collection or ST analist?
SINGAPORE, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Singapore is likely to see another year of lacklustre economic growth and elevated inflation in 2013 as exports remain weak and rising rents and car prices continue to push up the cost of living, its central bank said on Tuesday.
But the job market will remain tight and "resident wage growth could rise from 2-3 percent in 2012 to above 3 percent in 2013 even if overall economic growth remains sluggish," the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said in its half-yearly macroeconomic review.said.
I don't understand why the article says nearly half of new private properties are unsold.
According to URA data, as of Sep 2012, there are a total of 83,183 units (including ECs) of which 65,991 have been sold. This translates to 79% sold. It includes both launched and unlaunched units.
If you take only the launched units, the percentage sold is 90%!!
So, is the article misleading or what?
From the reading, total upcoming supply as at Q32012; PC (83,975) and EC (9,824) = 93,799 not including another 10.070 units on confirmed list or reserved list not awarded. Of the total units with permit for sale, about 36,000 or 44% of the upcoming supply remains unsold.
Exceeded. Except for the things we can't change. Like mountains, lakes, snow, weather.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita
Wow. Looks like I can forget about that dream holiday to Switzerland. Staying home is much better! :p
Wow. Looks like I can forget about that dream holiday to Switzerland. Staying home is much better! :p
And in Autumn to Winter, Switzerland can go down to as low as -5degC. They'll wish they are in tropical paradise like SG.
From the reading, total upcoming supply as at Q32012; PC (83,975) and EC (9,824) = 93,799 not including another 10.070 units on confirmed list or reserved list not awarded. Of the total units with permit for sale, about 36,000 or 44% of the upcoming supply remains unsold.
I still think it is misleading to use the word "unsold". It gives the impression of supply exceeding demand and there are many vacant units out there that have been in the market but remains unsold.
Here's the URA data:
http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2012/pr12-120b1.pdf
Of the 36,000 "unsold" units, 22,929 units have not obtained the pre-requisites for sale, 7,679 have not been launched. Only 5,998 have been launched and unsold.
In fact, if you compare 2Q and 3Q in the table, the number of so called "unsold" units have actually declined.
I still think it is misleading to use the word "unsold". It gives the impression of supply exceeding demand and there are many vacant units out there that have been in the market but remains unsold.
Here's the URA data:
http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2012/pr12-120b1.pdf
Of the 36,000 "unsold" units, 22,929 units have not obtained the pre-requisites for sale, 7,679 have not been launched. Only 5,998 have been launched and unsold.
In fact, if you compare 2Q and 3Q in the table, the number of so called "unsold" units have actually declined.
Ah Lim ah ... Give the government a chance la!
What you want them to say ? Developers are holding lesser and lesser units of unsold properties and hence will cheong the price once they get a chance to ? And cause the public to discover the secret that more price escalations are coming our way ?
They have to say something to calm the market mah!
They wont tell you many things Office Boy can tell u though ...
One of them is that foreigners are BACK in the market ... not cheongster style yet .. but slowly and very very steadily... I think after the HK door slam (15%), many already can predict Sg may follow suit.
If you are a rich Indonesia (by rich I mean $500 mil & abv) the last thing you want is to have a huge portion of your wealth locked up in Indonesia, right ?
They are starting to shop frantically here for resi and commercial. Many fly in to just buy and fly back.
DKSG
I still think it is misleading to use the word "unsold". It gives the impression of supply exceeding demand and there are many vacant units out there that have been in the market but remains unsold.
Here's the URA data:
http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2012/pr12-120b1.pdf
Of the 36,000 "unsold" units, 22,929 units have not obtained the pre-requisites for sale, 7,679 have not been launched. Only 5,998 have been launched and unsold.
In fact, if you compare 2Q and 3Q in the table, the number of so called "unsold" units have actually declined.
According to URA, sale permit can be obtained with 5 to 7 working days. Projects are considered good for sale as long as they have obtaned written permission. The issue is with developers who are "holding on" to projects or delay launches to avoid flooding the market.
we have a lot of experts here to dissect the stats it seems. ha.
developers will also know how to moderate the flow so as not to cannibalise their inventory.
According to URA, sale permit can be obtained with 5 to 7 working days. Projects are considered good for sale as long as they have obtaned written permission. The issue is with developers who are "holding on" to projects or delay launches to avoid flooding the market.
Ya boy... And Kovan Regency got sold out in 2 days, faster than the gahmen can dish out the permits. Haha..
But seriously, if based on what URA says about the fast processing of sales permit, then in 2Q, 38k units unsold. By 3Q, only 13k of these are left. Not bad right within 1Q?
But seriously, if based on what URA says about the fast processing of sales permit, then in 2Q, 38k units unsold. By 3Q, only 13k of these are left. Not bad right within 1Q?
It all depends on the popularity of the new launches during that particular quarter. Overall, the unsold units are increasing at an uncomfortable rate which is the message investors must note.
phantom_opera
31-10-12, 10:18
Are there many units near existing MRT or upcoming MRT that remain unsold??
Location location location
auroraborealis
31-10-12, 10:23
Yah... Near mrt projects, need to give 3 cheques in advance n still may need to ballot loh; < 5 mins walk to mall/mrt vs > 8 mins walk got alot of difference man; integrated in another league but must pay sky high pricing loh
Are there many units near existing MRT or upcoming MRT that remain unsold??
Location location location
Are there many units near existing MRT or upcoming MRT that remain unsold??
Location location location
Have. Bartley Residences still not sold out. But I think soon.
Are there many units near existing MRT or upcoming MRT that remain unsold??
Location location location
the 3 Potong Pasir plots? all 3 are <5mins from the station. 4 if u include Nin.
Secretariat
31-10-12, 13:20
To look at the trend of the "Total Units Launched but Unsold", the following is the extract from CDL's: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MjQ0MDh8Q2hpbGRJRD0tMXxUeXBlPTM=&t=1
On page 24.
2003. 4722 units
2004. 4639
2005. 2949
2006. 2536
2007. 2063
1H2008. 2755
So, 5988 units are on the high side indeed.
(Please highlight if the numbers are incorrect)
Waiting patiently for info from agents on the VVIP launch in front of potong pasir stn.
the 3 Potong Pasir plots? all 3 are <5mins from the station. 4 if u include Nin.
To look at the trend of the "Total Units Launched but Unsold", the following is the extract from CDL's: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MjQ0MDh8Q2hpbGRJRD0tMXxUeXBlPTM=&t=1
On page 24.
2003. 4722 units
2004. 4639
2005. 2949
2006. 2536
2007. 2063
1H2008. 2755
So, 5988 units are on the high side indeed.
(Please highlight if the numbers are incorrect)
Thank you for digging up the numbers.
Indeed, the relatively large number of unsold units given the current boom is disturbing. Looks like the curve is reaching turning point or has already turned. We should have a clearer picture in 3 to 6 months time.
Bro, you cannot just look at 1 figure and jump to conclusion la.
You need to look at the following :
2003 to 2012
Citizen increase - 452K
Foreigner increase - 756K
For foreigner increase - someone needs to get the figure for construction workers and those that employer provide dormitory and deduct from 756K.
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/themes/people/hist/popn.html
Add the citizen and the number of foreigner increase and divide by say 3.
Next you need to look at how many HDB whole flat that is rented out.
Ok... I stop here, this is taking too long and nobody going to do the stats. So let's forget I even got this started. Hahahahaha.
:cheers4:
To look at the trend of the "Total Units Launched but Unsold", the following is the extract from CDL's: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MjQ0MDh8Q2hpbGRJRD0tMXxUeXBlPTM=&t=1
On page 24.
2003. 4722 units
2004. 4639
2005. 2949
2006. 2536
2007. 2063
1H2008. 2755
So, 5988 units are on the high side indeed.
(Please highlight if the numbers are incorrect)
Bro, you cannot just look at 1 figure and jump to conclusion la.
You need to look at the following :
2003 to 2012
Citizen increase - 452K
Foreigner increase - 756K
For foreigner increase - someone needs to get the figure for construction workers and those that employer provide dormitory and deduct from 756K.
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/themes/people/hist/popn.html
Add the citizen and the number of foreigner increase and divide by say 3.
Next you need to look at how many HDB whole flat that is rented out.
Ok... I stop here, this is taking too long and nobody going to do the stats. So let's forget I even got this started. Hahahahaha.
:cheers4:
I look at it in another way. If unsold units are indeed alarming, why gahmen need to implement so many CMs and release so much land for sale har?
Why didn't they do it in 2003/2004 hor?
I look at it in another way. If unsold units are indeed alarming, why gahmen need to implement so many CMs and release so much land for sale har?
Why didn't they do it in 2003/2004 hor?
Bro, your theory is correct. The CMs are to prevent a full blown balloon(bubble). Right now, it is 1/2 inflated.
If you look at it in a very holistic way to determine supply/demand, it tells everything. The population has increased so much. There are so many people renting out their whole HDB flat. This people who rented out their whole hdb flat, where will they stay - of course in a private. Then you will have somemore people planning to rent out their HDB flat, say like Radha, then what they do?
So actually, everything can be calculated.
Instead of looking for signs to substantiate your stand that price will drop and go all out to look for the signs.
Or in order to prove that price will increase and look for all the signs to substantiate that point.
The person should look at it in a holistic way and determine if there is a supply/demand equilibrium. Then look at the economy, etc...
You see, if prices drop due to demand drop and economy is doing well, the govt can just turn the tap on for immigration.
The govt controls the COE to determine number of cars, right. So they control supply. Likewise, they control supply of land. They stop GLS for 2 years, everything back to normal - that is if there is oversupply.
Who controls supply of HDB????
This is the last time I am going to say this as I feel it is really getting nowhere. Hahahahahaha :D
Despite the increase in population and the fact that our property market is roaring now, the number of unsold units now as compared with the lean years of 2003 to 2007 is disturbing. We should be having relatively less unsold units now than before.
Whatever the reasons may be, with no buyer for the unsold units, it is not a good sign.
Secretariat
31-10-12, 15:00
To Chestnut,
Despite all the figures you mentioned, the fact remains that the unsold inventory is building up.
I am also vested, although in a different sector. But fact is fact, I rate the odds based on fact.
To Fclim,
Central bankers dont really want to mess with the market supply-demand equation, most of the time.
Which is why the concern with policy risk. When someone comes to me, even when he said it gently, "I will do whatever it takes...", oops sorry I will just step aside. Not to mention that it was Tharman who said it.
MAS implemented the CMs to protect the banks.
I look at it in another way. If unsold units are indeed alarming, why gahmen need to implement so many CMs and release so much land for sale har?
Why didn't they do it in 2003/2004 hor?
Look at it in another way; If people see the large number of unsold units and stop buying now, there will be no need for CM going forward. However, if people continue to buy and cause prices to increase further, it means that managing the supply side is not effective and government need to manage the demand side as well.
Bro, check this out :
https://www.ura.gov.sg/realEstateWeb/realEstate/pageflow/price/PriceController.jpf
Key in sept and click view all.
How many % unsold out of the total stock launched? How many % is risky?
Last time I responding. I am not here to convince anyone if it will go up or down. I dont care if it goes up or down.
Lastly, if stock unsold is 1% of total stock launched, we are in deep shit.
Cheers :cheers4:
To Chestnut,
Despite all the figures you mentioned, the fact remains that the unsold inventory is building up.
I am also vested, although in a different sector. But fact is fact, I rate the odds based on fact.
To Fclim,
Central bankers dont really want to mess with the market supply-demand equation, most of the time.
Which is why the concern with policy risk. When someone comes to me, even when he said it gently, "I will do whatever it takes...", oops sorry I will just step aside. Not to mention that it was Tharman who said it.
MAS implemented the CMs to protect the banks.
Developers are not going to launch all their units which are ready for sale unless they are confident of selling them all. In fact, as a very cohesive market, developers are going ot time their launches so as not to flood the market and to create "demand chasing supply" situation so that they could sell the next batch at higher prices.
Indeed, we need to look at the total stock ready for sale and the unsold units to give a better picture of the market.
Look at it in another way; If people see the large number of unsold units and stop buying now, there will be no need for CM going forward. However, if people continue to buy and cause prices to increase further, it means that managing the supply side is not effective and government need to manage the demand side as well.
It's precisely my point, which is about misleading interpretation of the stats by the press. Many who were waiting for the boat to come in anticipation of an oversupply (and therefore lower prices) got played out with the latest CM.
On the contrary, the fear of more CMs coming up actually pushed a lot more people to commit now. Why? Cos the next CM may put them out of the game totally PLUS time is not on their side with the latest CM.
And there will not be an oversupply of TOP units in the market until at least 2016/2017. Why? Because all who bought in the last 3 years are caught with the SSD. And those who continue to buy going forward are also caught with the SSD. So supply will be calibrated and not as if suddenly 100,000 completed units will come onto the market.
Secretariat
31-10-12, 15:42
Bro, check this out :
https://www.ura.gov.sg/realEstateWeb/realEstate/pageflow/price/PriceController.jpf
Key in sept and click view all.
How many % unsold out of the total stock launched? How many % is risky?
Last time I responding. I am not here to convince anyone if it will go up or down. I dont care if it goes up or down.
Lastly, if stock unsold is 1% of total stock launched, we are in deep shit.
Cheers :cheers4:
The report said:
Total launched but unsold (incl EC): 7082
Total launched but unsold (excl EC): 6387
Steady la, bro.
It's precisely my point, which is about misleading interpretation of the stats by the press. Many who were waiting for the boat to come in anticipation of an oversupply (and therefore lower prices) got played out with the latest CM.
On the contrary, the fear of more CMs coming up actually pushed a lot more people to commit now. Why? Cos the next CM may put them out of the game totally PLUS time is not on their side with the latest CM.
And there will not be an oversupply of TOP units in the market until at least 2016/2017. Why? Because all who bought in the last 3 years are caught with the SSD.
The press did not misinterprete the data. In fact, the press was spot on.
The current buying fever is due to the high inflation, low interest rate and the fear of buying at higher prices that are driving people to buy including people who have been waiting on the sideline.
Imagine without the CM, many more vulnerable buyers would have entered the market and these are the people who would get into a lot more trouble if thing take a turn.
With the CM, people who could still afford to buy should be able to ride the storm.
The press did not misinterprete the data. In fact, the press was spot on.
The current buying fever is due to the high inflation, low interest rate and the fear of buying at higher prices that are driving people to buy including people who have been waiting on the sideline.
Imagine without the CM, many more vulnerable buyers would have entered the market and these are the people who would get into a lot more trouble if thing take a turn.
With the CM, people who could still afford to buy should be able to ride the storm.
OK. Let's look at the stats from 2007 to 2012: All 3Q data from URA:
Total "unsold" units:
3Q 2007 : 38,013
3Q 2008 : 42,918
3Q 2009 : 34,120
3Q 2010 : 33,771
3Q 2011 : 39,111
3Q 2012 : 36,606
In fact, 3Q 2012 is much better than last year.
Secretariat
31-10-12, 16:18
Let's explore what is the proper functioning of a market.
Simple example.
Developer launched a project, only 3 units.
All 3 units sold at launch, at $1.5 mil each, purchased by A, B, C.
In between TOP, C was a flipper, sold his to D, at $1.6 mil, profit of $100,000.
D was a specuvestor, sold to E at the time of TOP at $2.0 mil, profit of $400,000.
These 2 transactions created a wealth of $500,000 and it stayed within the system.
Now, a typical condo project has hundreds of unit, so multiply these wealth creation. A proper functioning market creates wealth, simple as that; otherwise, there will be no participants.
The situation now, all the CMs until CM6, all buyers paid the developer prices and locked in for 3-4 years. All wealth created gone to one party, the developer.
Then CM6 came, depleting the pool of potential buyers, the pool which can buy from these locked-in buyers, generating wealth for their investment. And when the SSD period is up for a project, every buyer has the same timeline, whether in selling or looking for a tenant.
So, we have a non-functioning market for 3-4 years, rolling, and at the same time, new launches continue. Meanwhile, the chief of MAS said, "CM6 is not the end of the CM program".
Secretariat
31-10-12, 16:30
The government is hearing the voices of a group, the MTB group.
So, stop cheering all the CMs imposed, "bo tai chi la...", bla bla bla...
Take care of your interests.
Let's explore what is the proper functioning of a market.
Simple example.
Developer launched a project, only 3 units.
All 3 units sold at launch, at $1.5 mil each, purchased by A, B, C.
In between TOP, C was a flipper, sold his to D, at $1.6 mil, profit of $100,000.
D was a specuvestor, sold to E at the time of TOP at $2.0 mil, profit of $400,000.
These 2 transactions created a wealth of $500,000 and it stayed within the system.
Now, a typical condo project has hundreds of unit, so multiply these wealth creation. A proper functioning market creates wealth, simple as that; otherwise, there will be no participants.
The situation now, all the CMs until CM6, all buyers paid the developer prices and locked in for 3-4 years. All wealth created gone to one party, the developer.
Then CM6 came, depleting the pool of potential buyers, the pool which can buy from these locked-in buyers, generating wealth for their investment. And when the SSD period is up for a project, every buyer has the same timeline, whether in selling or looking for a tenant.
So, we have a non-functioning market for 3-4 years, rolling, and at the same time, new launches continue. Meanwhile, the chief of MAS said, "CM6 is not the end of the CM program".
Don't look good :doh:
The government is hearing the voices of a group, the MTB group.
So, stop cheering all the CMs imposed, "bo tai chi la...", bla bla bla...
Take care of your interests.
What is MTB ? :confused:
Don't look good :doh:
so whats going to happen..price crash....resale 4rm hdb back to 200k...3rm 150k...5rm 350k....EM....500k....entry level 3 bedder PC 600k....:cool:
i think the govt will have a bigger bigger headache if that happens..:cool:
What is MTB ? :confused:
haha, MTB Missed the Boat....
so whats going to happen..price crash....resale 4rm hdb back to 200k...3rm 150k...5rm 350k....EM....500k....entry level 3 bedder PC 600k....:cool:
i think the govt will have a bigger bigger headache if that happens..:cool:
Don't know about price crash & don't know what is the govt gooing to do.
But I have to make sure I have rental or sufficient fund to support the mortgage repayment however long it takes, in the event there is no rental or very low rental, and or I cannot sell or too painful to sell.
Don't know about price crash & don't know what is the govt gooing to do.
But I have to make sure I have rental or sufficient fund to support the mortgage repayment however long it takes, in the event there is no rental or very low rental, and or I cannot sell or too painful to sell.
in other words buy within your means...:cool:
haha, MTB Missed the Boat....
ok thanks Laguna.
in other words buy within your means...:cool:
Yes, well put.
ok thanks Laguna.
hi, young man, spend more time in this forum, u will enjoy and sure u can learn something
Punggol is much more accessible with KPE now and a megamall coming. If I was a newly wedded couple, I would go for that location. Birds at least starting to lay some eggs there.
got back link to pasir ris...link to coney island..maybe next time link to jb...:scared-1:
i don't think we need a third link smack towards pasir gudang... heh.
haha, MTB Missed the Boat....
Thanks for using Office Boy's acroynm ... Kum Sia !
DKSG
Secretariat
01-11-12, 09:19
Don't know about price crash & don't know what is the govt gooing to do.
But I have to make sure I have rental or sufficient fund to support the mortgage repayment however long it takes, in the event there is no rental or very low rental, and or I cannot sell or too painful to sell.
The term "crash" should not be misunderstood.
Prices don't crash. Anytime when a market crashes, there exists systemic risk, such as a major bank failure, a counterparty folds up, due to excessive leverages etc.
There are substantial studies done on price behaviors. In Bollinger Band, the laws of Physics and Statistics are applied. Fibonacci principle is applied in price reactions.
Price tends to stay constant, sometime for a long period of time, when the supply-demand equation remains the same. In the situation that we are talking about, buyers and sellers are simply staring at each other over a fence, for 3-4 years. Buyers have the advantage of a low interest rate environment, Sellers have the advantage of CMs on their side. This situation will go on until the equilibrium is upset, because of a change in the condition within or outside the property market.
Fibonacci Time, this is a applied sometime when looking for price behaviors over time. Each trader applies this method differently, but with a singular objective, to get an insight of how a particular instrument behaves over time (You can google for it, if you are up to it)
In the HDB sector, the current rally coincides with the .382 Fibonacci ratio of 99-years. I have described the importance of the number 39 in the lease lifespan, in the thread Pricing the risk of HDB.
If I have a HDB flat approaching the age of 39-years old, with the equity it is showing, then I will sell the flat in a second. With the realized equity, deploy it in a newly TOP'ed PC.
Please do your own research, and Caveat Emptor.
Secretariat
01-11-12, 09:48
The term "crash" should not be misunderstood.
Prices don't crash. Anytime when a market crashes, there exists systemic risk, such as a major bank failure, a counterparty folds up, due to excessive leverages etc.
There are substantial studies done on price behaviors. In Bollinger Band, the laws of Physics and Statistics are applied. Fibonacci principle is applied in price reactions.
Price tends to stay constant, sometime for a long period of time, when the supply-demand equation remains the same. In the situation that we are talking about, buyers and sellers are simply staring at each other over a fence, for 3-4 years. Those who bought have the advantage of a low interest rate environment, those who are buying the advantage of CMs on their side. This situation will go on until the equilibrium is upset, because of a change in the condition within or outside the property market.
Fibonacci Time, this is a applied sometime when looking for price behaviors over time. Each trader applies this method differently, but with a singular objective, to get an insight of how a particular instrument behaves over time (You can google for it, if you are up to it)
In the HDB sector, the current rally coincides with the .382 Fibonacci ratio of 99-years. I have described the importance of the number 39 in the lease lifespan, in the thread Pricing the risk of HDB.
If I have a HDB flat approaching the age of 39-years old, with the equity it is showing, then I will sell the flat in a second. With the realized equity, deploy it in a newly TOP'ed PC.
Please do your own research, and Caveat Emptor.
Typos corrected as above.
Typos corrected as above.
If I still have HDB I will not sell. No matter it's 39 years old or not.
Secretariat
01-11-12, 11:09
If I still have HDB I will not sell. No matter it's 39 years old or not.
Opinions are welcomed.
If I still have HDB I will not sell. No matter it's 39 years old or not.
Me too, I'm still holding on to my HDB as a second home even though I've a landed home. The HDB was my first property and I can't bear to sell or rent it for sentimental reasons.
Me too, I'm still holding on to my HDB as a second home even though I've a landed home. The HDB was my first property and I can't bear to sell or rent it for sentimental reasons.
Haha! There should be a CM requiring those currently holding onto BOTH PC and HDB to decide which one they want to hold.
That is coming from a sour grape Office Boy who cannot benefit from owning a HDB.
DKSG
the sour grape has been getting bigger...:D just wondering, how will this kind of CM help to curb the speedy rise in property price? I guess the objective is still the same and not changed. With the inflationary pressure all over the world, i would think garmen will not be so stupid to do such a thing which has not much coorelation to their initial objective and will invite unnecessary questions from the public. Besides, i think CMs are affecting future purchases and not what you have purchased, correct me if I'm wrong.
just my opinion, no offence. :)
Haha! There should be a CM requiring those currently holding onto BOTH PC and HDB to decide which one they want to hold.
That is coming from a sour grape Office Boy who cannot benefit from owning a HDB.
DKSG
how come you not selling? Sell and then buy back in 2015...Thought u and your gang keep saying >50% price drop very fast...:D
kidding...:sleep:
Me too, I'm still holding on to my HDB as a second home even though I've a landed home. The HDB was my first property and I can't bear to sell or rent it for sentimental reasons.
Supply numbers do not tell the whole story
by Colin Tan
04:45 AM Nov 02, 2012
The startling headline this week on the front page of a newspaper pointed to
more than 100,000 private housing units in the pipeline as at the end of the
third quarter, a record high since data was collected more than a decade
ago.
The number included private housing supply of 83,975 units, 9,824 Executive
Condominiums and an estimated 10,070 units that will be developed from sites
sold or slated for sale. In addition, some 27,000 public housing flats will
be sold this year - another record.
In the true spirit of Halloween, these numbers may scare some investors and
others planning to buy new homes to pause for reflection.
However, the numbers - presumably screaming of a huge overhang of supply
that will lead to a significant price correction in the near future - are
not new and not as straightforward as they seem.
Warnings of record pipeline supply have been sounded many times before.
Moreover, a significant portion, or 56 per cent, of the future private
housing supply has already been sold. Nevertheless, more than 36,000 units
have remained unsold, still a historical high.
But, as noted by one reader, supply is not true supply if it is not put up
for sale. So at any point in time, the numbers offered for sale in the
market may not be very big or at least not big enough to put downward
pressure on prices.
Developers have some discretion to time their project launches to coincide
with periods of optimism in the market. Not only do they sell more during
the good times, they sell them more quickly, partly because of the herd
instinct.
Public housing flats are mainly for own accommodation, so really there is no
issue of oversupply here. However, they do take away potential buyers from
the private housing market - from the lower-priced segment at least.
Those most in need of this warning are the investors, especially short-term
ones. For long-term investors, their motivation is wealth preservation. Most
are realistic not to expect much or any capital appreciation in the next few
years. Some are even willing to tolerate small paper losses because they
believe they will eventually earn a profit if they hold their properties
long enough.
However, for new investors, such losses can hurt just as much as actual
losses.
The leasing market for housing is still pretty resilient, but can it
withstand the onslaught of the huge impending supply?
When the authorities said last year they were clamping down hard on the
number of foreigners in Singapore, many including myself felt that housing
rents will come under huge downward pressure since foreigners formed the
bulk of renters.
We waited patiently but housing rentals did not correct. Instead, they
continued to inch upwards. Recently released population figures provided
clarity to this puzzle: The number of foreigners has continued to grow.
The severe clampdown was actually in the form of drastically reducing the
rate of growth of foreigner inflow. But slower growth does not mean fewer
foreigners in the country. That is one puzzle solved.
However, it still comes as a surprise that rents are rising even as ever
larger numbers of units have been completed over the past year and a half.
Vacancy rate levels have largely held steady for the previous quarters
before rising slightly in the third quarter. But for sure, the absolute
number of vacant apartments has been increasing steadily, not just for the
third quarter but for the earlier quarters as well.
Normally, rising rents and rising vacancy levels do not go together, but in
abnormal times such as the present, it happens.
Rock-bottom holding costs due to the low interest rate environment have
allowed more owners to keep their apartments vacant for that much longer.
This has been critical in sustaining the high rents in the face of the
increasing number of vacant units. So far, landlords as a group have been
more united and successful in keeping rents high than renters have been able
to negotiate lower rates.
But the dynamics behind the housing rental market is a lot more complex
these days - propped up by growing numbers of local renters and the still
growing number of en bloc beneficiaries. Even at this late stage of the
property cycle, we do get requests from some management committees to submit
a proposal for a collective sale.
Even as one support to the rental market weakens, another rises to take its
place. It is really difficult to predict how rents will trend in the near
future.
So, Halloween or not, the huge supply numbers as a scare tactic have lost
much of their fright value these days.
Colin Tan is Head of Research and Consultancy at Chesterton Suntec
International
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